Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 838403 times)

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8050 on: July 28, 2019, 12:44:45 PM »
If we really wanted to do something, we would attack this problem at the source, but that would mean big old bad USA bully would be invading other countries and messing with their right to govern.   Can't have that!

Since when does attacking the problem at source mean an invasion or subverting the right to govern?  Doesn't it mean supporting the rule of law in those countries, with training and support for good governance and the rule of law?  Doesn't it mean directing investment into mitigating the adverse effects of climate change with agricultural research and development?

And most of all, doesn't it mean the USA doing something about the demand for illegal drugs within its own borders which provides the raison d'etre and the rocket fuel for violence and gangs in those countries?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8051 on: July 28, 2019, 01:07:01 PM »
If we really wanted to do something, we would attack this problem at the source, but that would mean big old bad USA bully would be invading other countries and messing with their right to govern.   Can't have that!

Since when does attacking the problem at source mean an invasion or subverting the right to govern?  Doesn't it mean supporting the rule of law in those countries, with training and support for good governance and the rule of law?  Doesn't it mean directing investment into mitigating the adverse effects of climate change with agricultural research and development?

And most of all, doesn't it mean the USA doing something about the demand for illegal drugs within its own borders which provides the raison d'etre and the rocket fuel for violence and gangs in those countries?

Come on.  Pulling out climate change as the reason for the hundreds of thousands of people fleeing violence from central American countries?

from BBC, a reasonable news outlet:

"Kate Jastram, senior staff attorney for the Center for Gender and Refugee Studies at the University of California Hastings College of the Law, says that families fleeing violence in Central America began to make up a much larger part of border crossings beginning in 2014"

This is all about lack of law and corruption in these countries.  Not climate change.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8052 on: July 28, 2019, 01:29:50 PM »
If we really wanted to do something, we would attack this problem at the source, but that would mean big old bad USA bully would be invading other countries and messing with their right to govern.   Can't have that!

Since when does attacking the problem at source mean an invasion or subverting the right to govern?  Doesn't it mean supporting the rule of law in those countries, with training and support for good governance and the rule of law?  Doesn't it mean directing investment into mitigating the adverse effects of climate change with agricultural research and development?

And most of all, doesn't it mean the USA doing something about the demand for illegal drugs within its own borders which provides the raison d'etre and the rocket fuel for violence and gangs in those countries?

Come on.  Pulling out climate change as the reason for the hundreds of thousands of people fleeing violence from central American countries?

from BBC, a reasonable news outlet:

"Kate Jastram, senior staff attorney for the Center for Gender and Refugee Studies at the University of California Hastings College of the Law, says that families fleeing violence in Central America began to make up a much larger part of border crossings beginning in 2014"

This is all about lack of law and corruption in these countries.  Not climate change.

Migration is multi causal. This has already been discussed. Yes escaping violence, poverty and indeed climate change are all reasons for migration. 5 years of severe draught in Central America, where they mostly rely on subsistence farming, tends to lead folks to seek out other sources of food.  Former player is spot on.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8053 on: July 28, 2019, 02:06:10 PM »
No, you are being ridiculous. There's no point in talking further if your goal is to put down the entire other party.

You're certainly free to discuss as you see fit.  But when asked why you support Trump, and what good you think he has done for the country you were unable to come up with a single reason he is personally better than any other Republican candidate.

Republicans are choosing to support him for a reason.  We've established that policy is not the reason (Trump has enacted no beneficial policy you were able to identify that any other Republican president wouldn't have enacted).  That leaves all of the other stuff that Trump does.  Without policy, it's logical to conclude that Republicans support Trump for who he is as a person.  And as a person, Trump is racist, misogenistic, homophobic, xenophobic, and practices nepotism.

If this is not something you agree with, then why exactly does Trump continue to be wildly popular with Republicans without any unique policy and without having a personality that is liked?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8054 on: July 28, 2019, 02:21:46 PM »
Migration is multi causal. This has already been discussed. Yes escaping violence, poverty and indeed climate change are all reasons for migration. 5 years of severe draught in Central America, where they mostly rely on subsistence farming, tends to lead folks to seek out other sources of food.  Former player is spot on.

Right but since this started in 2014, it is Obama's fault.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8055 on: July 28, 2019, 02:26:18 PM »
Migration is multi causal. This has already been discussed. Yes escaping violence, poverty and indeed climate change are all reasons for migration. 5 years of severe draught in Central America, where they mostly rely on subsistence farming, tends to lead folks to seek out other sources of food.  Former player is spot on.

Right but since this started in 2014, it is Obama's fault.
Thanks Obama!!

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8056 on: July 28, 2019, 02:41:30 PM »

Yet we'll treat that ICE official as if he is a heartless, evil person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SCltrq0wro

And then you conveniently ignored the facebook page of ICE employees who comment about migrant deaths as if it were a fun sport.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8057 on: July 28, 2019, 03:13:24 PM »

Yet we'll treat that ICE official as if he is a heartless, evil person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SCltrq0wro

And then you conveniently ignored the facebook page of ICE employees who comment about migrant deaths as if it were a fun sport.

And you conveniently ignore the many rescues by border patrol agents, putting their lives in danger to rescue people illegally crossing the border:

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/local-media-release/border-patrol-rescues-group-lost-illegal-aliens

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/local-media-release/border-patrol-agents-rescue-10-tractor-trailer

Oh and this one:

"Border Patrol Agents and CBP Officers Rescue Father and Child from the Rio Grande"

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/local-media-release/border-patrol-agents-and-cbp-officers-rescue-father-and-child-rio

Telecaster

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8058 on: July 28, 2019, 03:53:12 PM »
The first minute or two of this video shows a former ICE official testifying before congress, and he explains how he has seen children die on the border.  He held a child who was dying in the back of a tractor-trailer.

Did this ICE official cause the death?  No, the terrible, risky conditions of illegal border crossing took the child's life.

Yet we'll treat that ICE official as if he is a heartless, evil person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SCltrq0wro

Who is this "we"?   I'm not treating that ICE official that way, so don't lump me in with you.

Thank you. 

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8059 on: July 28, 2019, 03:54:01 PM »
I'm sure some of the ICE agents do great deeds, but that's the job.

And government website press releases will always be biased to present the shiniest best picture of events.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8060 on: July 28, 2019, 04:22:00 PM »

Yet we'll treat that ICE official as if he is a heartless, evil person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SCltrq0wro

And then you conveniently ignored the facebook page of ICE employees who comment about migrant deaths as if it were a fun sport.

And you conveniently ignore the many rescues by border patrol agents, putting their lives in danger to rescue people illegally crossing the border:

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/local-media-release/border-patrol-rescues-group-lost-illegal-aliens

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/local-media-release/border-patrol-agents-rescue-10-tractor-trailer

Oh and this one:

"Border Patrol Agents and CBP Officers Rescue Father and Child from the Rio Grande"

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/local-media-release/border-patrol-agents-and-cbp-officers-rescue-father-and-child-rio

Jesus! You forgot ďIím rubber youíre glue.Ē

dang1

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8061 on: July 28, 2019, 04:27:50 PM »
www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/07/19/mueller-witness-george-nader-accused-of-transporting-boy-for-sex-porn.html

Mueller witness George Nader charged with transporting 14-year-old boy for sex, child porn

Nader helped arrange a January 2017 meeting in the Seychelles between Erik Prince and Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, who reported directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Mueller's report on his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

Prince is the brother of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, the founder of private security firm Blackwater, and he is also a supporter of President Donald Trump.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8062 on: July 28, 2019, 05:29:08 PM »
Welp, Dan Coats is out as director of national intelligence.

God help us if anything really serious ever happens to the US with this skeleton crew of incompetent toadies on watch.

KBecks

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8063 on: July 28, 2019, 05:30:04 PM »
No, you are being ridiculous. There's no point in talking further if your goal is to put down the entire other party.

You're certainly free to discuss as you see fit.  But when asked why you support Trump, and what good you think he has done for the country you were unable to come up with a single reason he is personally better than any other Republican candidate.

Republicans are choosing to support him for a reason.  We've established that policy is not the reason (Trump has enacted no beneficial policy you were able to identify that any other Republican president wouldn't have enacted).  That leaves all of the other stuff that Trump does.  Without policy, it's logical to conclude that Republicans support Trump for who he is as a person.  And as a person, Trump is racist, misogenistic, homophobic, xenophobic, and practices nepotism.

If this is not something you agree with, then why exactly does Trump continue to be wildly popular with Republicans without any unique policy and without having a personality that is liked?

Dude. I didn't vote for him in the primary, but now he's the candidate and that's life.  Maybe the person you vote for won't get the Dem nomination, either... oh wait, never mind.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2019, 05:31:53 PM by KBecks »

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8064 on: July 28, 2019, 05:43:05 PM »
No, you are being ridiculous. There's no point in talking further if your goal is to put down the entire other party.

You're certainly free to discuss as you see fit.  But when asked why you support Trump, and what good you think he has done for the country you were unable to come up with a single reason he is personally better than any other Republican candidate.

Republicans are choosing to support him for a reason.  We've established that policy is not the reason (Trump has enacted no beneficial policy you were able to identify that any other Republican president wouldn't have enacted).  That leaves all of the other stuff that Trump does.  Without policy, it's logical to conclude that Republicans support Trump for who he is as a person.  And as a person, Trump is racist, misogenistic, homophobic, xenophobic, and practices nepotism.

If this is not something you agree with, then why exactly does Trump continue to be wildly popular with Republicans without any unique policy and without having a personality that is liked?

Dude. I didn't vote for him in the primary, but now he's the candidate and that's life. 

I don't follow.  Just because someone becomes wins a primary (or even an election) doesn't mean you are obligated to support them.  In fact, democracy functions best when we remain critical of our leaders, and previous presidents of both parties have had periods when people from within their own party were not terribly enthusiastic.  As DJT has the support of an overwhelming amount of Republican voters, this suggests they like what he has been doing.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8065 on: July 28, 2019, 05:50:54 PM »
No, you are being ridiculous. There's no point in talking further if your goal is to put down the entire other party.

You're certainly free to discuss as you see fit.  But when asked why you support Trump, and what good you think he has done for the country you were unable to come up with a single reason he is personally better than any other Republican candidate.

Republicans are choosing to support him for a reason.  We've established that policy is not the reason (Trump has enacted no beneficial policy you were able to identify that any other Republican president wouldn't have enacted).  That leaves all of the other stuff that Trump does.  Without policy, it's logical to conclude that Republicans support Trump for who he is as a person.  And as a person, Trump is racist, misogenistic, homophobic, xenophobic, and practices nepotism.

If this is not something you agree with, then why exactly does Trump continue to be wildly popular with Republicans without any unique policy and without having a personality that is liked?

Dude. I didn't vote for him in the primary, but now he's the candidate and that's life. 

I don't follow.  Just because someone becomes wins a primary (or even an election) doesn't mean you are obligated to support them.  In fact, democracy functions best when we remain critical of our leaders, and previous presidents of both parties have had periods when people from within their own party were not terribly enthusiastic.  As DJT has the support of an overwhelming amount of Republican voters, this suggests they like what he has been doing.

Right?

Itís sickening to think that those on the right will literally vote for anyone their party nominates, no matter how vile.

I personally think I have higher standards. There have definitely been Democratic candidates I would not have voted for had they been nominated. 

OtherJen

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8066 on: July 28, 2019, 05:57:56 PM »
No, you are being ridiculous. There's no point in talking further if your goal is to put down the entire other party.

You're certainly free to discuss as you see fit.  But when asked why you support Trump, and what good you think he has done for the country you were unable to come up with a single reason he is personally better than any other Republican candidate.

Republicans are choosing to support him for a reason.  We've established that policy is not the reason (Trump has enacted no beneficial policy you were able to identify that any other Republican president wouldn't have enacted).  That leaves all of the other stuff that Trump does.  Without policy, it's logical to conclude that Republicans support Trump for who he is as a person.  And as a person, Trump is racist, misogenistic, homophobic, xenophobic, and practices nepotism.

If this is not something you agree with, then why exactly does Trump continue to be wildly popular with Republicans without any unique policy and without having a personality that is liked?

Dude. I didn't vote for him in the primary, but now he's the candidate and that's life. 

I don't follow.  Just because someone becomes wins a primary (or even an election) doesn't mean you are obligated to support them.  In fact, democracy functions best when we remain critical of our leaders, and previous presidents of both parties have had periods when people from within their own party were not terribly enthusiastic.  As DJT has the support of an overwhelming amount of Republican voters, this suggests they like what he has been doing.

Right?

Itís sickening to think that those on the right will literally vote for anyone their party nominates, no matter how vile.

I personally think I have higher standards. There have definitely been Democratic candidates I would not have voted for had they been nominated.

Same. I didn't vote for Bill Clinton in 1996. I was disgusted by his behavior and unimpressed by some of his policies.

I actually considered voting for John McCain as the intelligent, experienced elder statesman in 2008 until he nominated Sarah Palin as his running mate. The thought of her as second in command was horrifying.

I tend to vote Democrat because the GOP doesn't seem to have a place for me, an atheist Mexican-American woman in science. But I don't belong to the Democratic Party and don't really understand lockstep party loyalty. It seems blind and tribalistic.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8067 on: July 28, 2019, 06:10:47 PM »
No, you are being ridiculous. There's no point in talking further if your goal is to put down the entire other party.

You're certainly free to discuss as you see fit.  But when asked why you support Trump, and what good you think he has done for the country you were unable to come up with a single reason he is personally better than any other Republican candidate.

Republicans are choosing to support him for a reason.  We've established that policy is not the reason (Trump has enacted no beneficial policy you were able to identify that any other Republican president wouldn't have enacted).  That leaves all of the other stuff that Trump does.  Without policy, it's logical to conclude that Republicans support Trump for who he is as a person.  And as a person, Trump is racist, misogenistic, homophobic, xenophobic, and practices nepotism.

If this is not something you agree with, then why exactly does Trump continue to be wildly popular with Republicans without any unique policy and without having a personality that is liked?

Dude. I didn't vote for him in the primary, but now he's the candidate and that's life. 

I don't follow.  Just because someone becomes wins a primary (or even an election) doesn't mean you are obligated to support them.  In fact, democracy functions best when we remain critical of our leaders, and previous presidents of both parties have had periods when people from within their own party were not terribly enthusiastic.  As DJT has the support of an overwhelming amount of Republican voters, this suggests they like what he has been doing.

Right?

Itís sickening to think that those on the right will literally vote for anyone their party nominates, no matter how vile.

I personally think I have higher standards. There have definitely been Democratic candidates I would not have voted for had they been nominated.

Same. I didn't vote for Bill Clinton in 1996. I was disgusted by his behavior and unimpressed by some of his policies.

I actually considered voting for John McCain as the intelligent, experienced elder statesman in 2008 until he nominated Sarah Palin as his running mate. The thought of her as second in command was horrifying.

I tend to vote Democrat because the GOP doesn't seem to have a place for me, an atheist Mexican-American woman in science. But I don't belong to the Democratic Party and don't really understand lockstep party loyalty. It seems blind and tribalistic.

Agree on Clinton for sure. I would probably have voted for McCain in 2000, had he gotten the nomination. But McCain in 2008 had gone too far off the deep end for me with Palin.


KBecks

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8068 on: July 28, 2019, 06:50:07 PM »
We don't know who the other candidate is yet, and it is unlikely that it will be a candidate that conservatives can get behind.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8069 on: July 28, 2019, 06:53:39 PM »
We don't know who the other candidate is yet, and it is unlikely that it will be a candidate that conservatives can get behind.

The fact you can ďget behindĒ Trump already says a lot about you.

KBecks

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8070 on: July 28, 2019, 07:14:41 PM »
That's right, I'm a terrible racist that hates women.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8071 on: July 28, 2019, 07:26:26 PM »
That's right, I'm a terrible racist that hates women.

You excuse inexcusable behavior.

Donít strawman. Own up to it.

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8072 on: July 28, 2019, 07:27:49 PM »
That's right, I'm a terrible racist that hates women.
We don't know that.  What we do know is that you are admitting to supporting a racist and misogynist man to run your country.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8073 on: July 28, 2019, 08:43:42 PM »
That's right, I'm a terrible racist that hates women.
We don't know that.  What we do know is that you are admitting to supporting a racist and misogynist man to run your country.

 . . . because that's who the Republican party has decided best represents them and what they stand for.  And KBecks is completely lock-step behind the Republican party - no matter what.  She's willing to overlook the racism.  And the Russia stuff.  And the homophobia.  And the misogyny.  And the nepotism.  And the corruption.  It's all fine if a Republican does it.

KBecks

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8074 on: July 28, 2019, 09:00:34 PM »
And I'm out right here before you all get the torches and come for my family.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8075 on: July 28, 2019, 09:35:47 PM »
That's right, I'm a terrible racist that hates women.
So were 62,984,827 other Americans in 2016. About 26 million of them were women. And while black people didn't vote for Trump (they tend not to vote Republican these days), black voters stayed home, even in states where their votes weren't suppressed - so they obviously weren't moved to vote Democrat. And of course, less than half of Latinos turned out to vote - not even the prospect of a "you have to go back, we'll build a wall" Republican President could get them voting Democrat.Too bad about those misogynistic women and black-hating blacks, and just awful about those Latinos who hate Latinos.

Until the Democrats can bring themselves to understand why black people and Latinos are not inclined to vote for them, and why millions of women won't vote for them, they will continue to suffer in elections. Dismissing almost 63 million people as "deplorables" won't help. Currently, the Democrats seem determined to ensure Trump wins again.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2019, 09:38:25 PM by Kyle Schuant »

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8076 on: July 29, 2019, 01:38:24 AM »
And I'm out right here before you all get the torches and come for my family.
Nobody on this forum has any intention of coming for your family.  Where did you get that from?  How does making that statement help the discussion?  Do you think the only way to stop people "coming for your family" is to vote for Trump?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8077 on: July 29, 2019, 04:47:30 AM »


Until the Democrats can bring themselves to understand why black people and Latinos are not inclined to vote for them, and why millions of women won't vote for them, they will continue to suffer in elections. Dismissing almost 63 million people as "deplorables" won't help. Currently, the Democrats seem determined to ensure Trump wins again.

What makes you think that black and Latinos are not inclined to vote Democrat?  Your evidence seems to be based on the fact that they did not vote for one particular democrat (HRC). Both groups voted in record high numbers in 2018, and in saw their turnout drop in 2016 compared with previous elections.  At the same time these demographics have turned out to support an array of diverse candidates for state and local government. Also worth noting that latinos in particular have previouslyt supported the GOP when it wasn't dominated by xenophobic rhetoric (e.g. under GWB).
No, the Dems are not 'determined to ensure Trump wins again'. This is the prequel to the primaries; no one will even cast a vote for another 7 months. 

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8078 on: July 29, 2019, 04:48:48 AM »
That's right, I'm a terrible racist that hates women.
So were 62,984,827 other Americans in 2016. About 26 million of them were women. And while black people didn't vote for Trump (they tend not to vote Republican these days), black voters stayed home, even in states where their votes weren't suppressed - so they obviously weren't moved to vote Democrat. And of course, less than half of Latinos turned out to vote - not even the prospect of a "you have to go back, we'll build a wall" Republican President could get them voting Democrat.Too bad about those misogynistic women and black-hating blacks, and just awful about those Latinos who hate Latinos.

Until the Democrats can bring themselves to understand why black people and Latinos are not inclined to vote for them, and why millions of women won't vote for them, they will continue to suffer in elections. Dismissing almost 63 million people as "deplorables" won't help. Currently, the Democrats seem determined to ensure Trump wins again.

Ignoring the childish straw-man KBecks posted that you seem to be agreeing with, let's examine your conclusions:

Black voter turnout hovered between roughly 55-60% from 1988 election to the 2004 election. Obama, being the Dem candidate of course in 2008, certainly was a contributing cause for an increase in black voter turnout during the 2008 and 2012 election. Black voter turnout in 2016, when there was no black Dem candidate on the ballot, fell back to 59.6%. Basically we saw a regression to the mean.  Nothing out of the ordinary, as you seem to be insisting.

Those that did vote, voted overwhelmingly Dem. So saying they weren't "moved to vote Dem" is complete nonsense. You can conclude less were moved to vote relative to the 2012 election. However, those that did vote, overwhelmingly voted Dem to the tune of roughly 88%. Again this is a regression to the mean as well.  What I find interesting though is party affiliation. Republican party affiliation among blacks dropped to 3%. That's down from when Obama was on the ballot and the lowest since 1968. In fact it was 15% during the 2004 election.

The Latino vote was largely unchanged. The number of eligible voters has been exceeding actual voters for quite some time. Nothing out of the ordinary here.

Again with the "deplorables" nonsense. What's up with that? I mean even when Clinton said it she said about half of Trump supporters belong in the basket of deplorables. Argumentum ad nausea.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2019, 05:59:58 AM by MasterStache »

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8079 on: July 29, 2019, 06:33:13 AM »

The Latino vote was largely unchanged. The number of eligible voters has been exceeding actual voters for quite some time. Nothing out of the ordinary here.

Agreed - and further context can put it into perspective.  Latinos have never been an easy fit within the Dem party - as a group they skew more religious (mostly Catholic), more fiscally conservative, tend to be strongly pro-life and are resistant/skeptical towards a stronger federal government.  Latinos who have gained citizenship (and thereby eligible to vote) are also on a whole critical of undocumented immigrants/illegals. Several GOP candidates have won large percentages of the latino vote: 'W' took a plurality of latino voters in his second election.

With that context, it's noteworthy that DJT's support from the Latino community is the lowest it's been (by a lot) in over a generation. Lately the GOP seems to have a fairly transparent strategy of suppressing the latino vote, rather than follow the recommendations of the "2012 GOP autopsy" stressing a need to connect with Latino voters who might be uneasy within the Dem party.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8080 on: July 29, 2019, 07:58:47 AM »

The Latino vote was largely unchanged. The number of eligible voters has been exceeding actual voters for quite some time. Nothing out of the ordinary here.

Agreed - and further context can put it into perspective.  Latinos have never been an easy fit within the Dem party - as a group they skew more religious (mostly Catholic), more fiscally conservative, tend to be strongly pro-life and are resistant/skeptical towards a stronger federal government.  Latinos who have gained citizenship (and thereby eligible to vote) are also on a whole critical of undocumented immigrants/illegals. Several GOP candidates have won large percentages of the latino vote: 'W' took a plurality of latino voters in his second election.

With that context, it's noteworthy that DJT's support from the Latino community is the lowest it's been (by a lot) in over a generation. Lately the GOP seems to have a fairly transparent strategy of suppressing the latino vote, rather than follow the recommendations of the "2012 GOP autopsy" stressing a need to connect with Latino voters who might be uneasy within the Dem party.

I agree with this. There are definitely ways that the GOP can really appeal to the latino vote, basically a hands-off strategy, plus improving relations with Mexico. Not likely to happen however with the Trump/Stephen Miller combo.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8081 on: July 29, 2019, 09:26:37 AM »
That's right, I'm a terrible racist that hates women.
So were 62,984,827 other Americans in 2016. About 26 million of them were women. And while black people didn't vote for Trump (they tend not to vote Republican these days), black voters stayed home, even in states where their votes weren't suppressed - so they obviously weren't moved to vote Democrat. And of course, less than half of Latinos turned out to vote - not even the prospect of a "you have to go back, we'll build a wall" Republican President could get them voting Democrat.Too bad about those misogynistic women and black-hating blacks, and just awful about those Latinos who hate Latinos.

Until the Democrats can bring themselves to understand why black people and Latinos are not inclined to vote for them, and why millions of women won't vote for them, they will continue to suffer in elections. Dismissing almost 63 million people as "deplorables" won't help. Currently, the Democrats seem determined to ensure Trump wins again.

This is something we've been kicking back and forth for two years.  A large percentage of our electorate does not consider themselves racist or sexist, thinks Trump is both racist and sexist, but resents being told that voting for a racist and a sexist reflects on them in any way because they have their own reasons for voting for him.  Another large portion of the electorate does not consider themselves racist or sexist, thinks Trump is NOT racist and sexist but is just telling it like it is, and thinks that liberals pointing these things out are the real racists and sexists. The first group is reachable.  The second group is not.  Kyle thinks that pushing this issue will push the first group into the second group out of resentment. I think pushing the first group is what gets defections, and the Democrats only need some defections.

Another open question is whether defections in the first group will be enough to form a winning block for Democrats.  I have my own thoughts based on Obama 2008 and 2012.  Obama lost ground in 2012 after a landslide in 2008 and electoral reversal in 2010.  However, his coalition of the college educated, young people, and minority voters was still big enough to push him over the top.  Where he lost ground is exactly in the types of places that Trump does well.  If Trump follows the Obama pattern, he has no room to lose any ground.  At all.  Even voter replacement puts him in danger as his voters die and are replaced by younger voters. I've also wondered whether deaths of despair put his coalition in danger, but these are centered in places like WV and Kentucky where he has his largest cushion.  Can Trump gain ground?  Are there any Clinton voters who will go to Trump?  This seems unlikely. Are there any Clinton voters who won't turn out in 2016?  All signs point to increased turnout in 2020.  Are there large blocks of nonvoters who are persuadable to vote for Trump?  It's a possibility.  I think that the Trump campaign is looking for these voters, and that's why the five alarm racism bell is ringing.  They must see some data showing that nonvoters open to voting for him love tweets about Baltimore and vermin. 

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8082 on: July 29, 2019, 09:41:48 AM »
I am in group 1.  I think Trump is racist and sexist, but really more elitist (looks down on anyone male or female, any race, if they do not fit in with his idea of success and status).   I would still vote for Trump over a person who I felt could do more harm to the country.

The harm from Trump's presidency will be fleeting.  He is barely getting anything done as it is.   The harm from a large social program that perhaps had good intentions but was a disaster economically can be far greater, both in cost of lives and quality of life.

I will vote for the right Democrat or I will vote for Trump again.  The ideal situation would be a third party who stood a chance but...

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8083 on: July 29, 2019, 10:17:28 AM »
I am in group 1.  I think Trump is racist and sexist, but really more elitist (looks down on anyone male or female, any race, if they do not fit in with his idea of success and status).   I would still vote for Trump over a person who I felt could do more harm to the country.

The harm from Trump's presidency will be fleeting.  He is barely getting anything done as it is.   The harm from a large social program that perhaps had good intentions but was a disaster economically can be far greater, both in cost of lives and quality of life.

I will vote for the right Democrat or I will vote for Trump again.  The ideal situation would be a third party who stood a chance but...

I find it hard to believe that anyone cannot see the harm that Trump is doing, and it will not be fleeting.

You can take the word of the military experts who have come out to say Trump is dangerous and unqualified. You have to understand how UNUSUAL this open and public denouncement of Trump is. Trump as president is the commander in chief of the military. Because of that he has deference from even the top general, so that any disagreements are dealt with in private. It is only because these people feels Trump is literally a risk to national security, statements have been made publically.
national security leaders https://warontherocks.com/2016/03/open-letter-on-donald-trump-from-gop-national-security-leaders/
retired generals and admirals https://www.humanrightsfirst.org/resource/letter-176-retired-generals-and-admirals-president-elect-trump-use-torture
For one, he doesn't read the daily security briefings. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-s-calendar-just-17-intelligence-briefings-85-days-n967386

"When Trump believes something to be true, U.S. officials tell NBC News, it's extremely difficult for them to dissuade him, even if they have a mountain of evidence he is wrong. And when he doubts something they are telling him, he often requires iron-clad proof of a type that is rarely available from intelligence collection."
This is the first president that the intelligence community has had to deal with whose instinctive departure point is not the truth," David Priess, a former CIA briefer, said on MSNBC. "He goes from his belief first.""

You can see it in our withdrawal from the Paris accord, during a time that is literally do or die regarding slowing c02 emissions.

The US is not longer considered a full democracy as ranked by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Trump is doing everything to both erode our current system by placing more and more power in the executive branch, and reduce our level of democratic participation. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/25/us-is-no-longer-a-full-democracy-eiu-warns.html

Independent observers state that our elections are no longer democratic. Once you lose democratic processes, it is very very difficult for the group in power to give up power in favor of democracy https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/north-carolina-not-democracy-elections-cuba-iran-venezuela-gop-a7494561.html

And as far as talking about expensive social programs, Trump is driving up the deficit during a time when the economy is booming and deficit are typically reduced. This is setting up our country extremely poorly to be prepared to weather any kind of economic setback. It's kind of like blowing your emergency fund on big screen tvs, so when you have a true emergency, you can't pay for it. We are not suffering now but we will be suffering in the future because of this reckless behavior.

None of these are fleeting, nor easy to correct once you lose them.
 
« Last Edit: July 29, 2019, 10:25:16 AM by partgypsy »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8084 on: July 29, 2019, 10:36:36 AM »
Ok, so if you are going to bring up an article likening the USA to Venezuela then I think it is appropriate to look at how the socialist programs there have led to the current economic disaster.

In Venezuela the inflation recently has reached some 130,000%

While I won't lay all the blame on the socialist programs there, a large portion can be attributed to that.


Would I vote for a racist deplorable president over someone who would lead us down a Venezuelan path?  Hell yeah.  I wouldn't be happy or proud of it but I would do it for the long term health of the country.

Right now none of the programs really seem like they would put us on that path but buying votes by promoting things like UBI, loan forgiveness, reparations, medicare for all is a start.   What happens is a cascade, where the economic output falls and then more social programs must be offered to buy more votes.

I can't remember the name, but I think a far right republican once said "The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."  Probably it was some rich white American male or something.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8085 on: July 29, 2019, 10:48:41 AM »
Ok, so if you are going to bring up an article likening the USA to Venezuela then I think it is appropriate to look at how the socialist programs there have led to the current economic disaster.

In Venezuela the inflation recently has reached some 130,000%

While I won't lay all the blame on the socialist programs there, a large portion can be attributed to that.


Would I vote for a racist deplorable president over someone who would lead us down a Venezuelan path?  Hell yeah.  I wouldn't be happy or proud of it but I would do it for the long term health of the country.

Right now none of the programs really seem like they would put us on that path but buying votes by promoting things like UBI, loan forgiveness, reparations, medicare for all is a start.   What happens is a cascade, where the economic output falls and then more social programs must be offered to buy more votes.

I can't remember the name, but I think a far right republican once said "The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."  Probably it was some rich white American male or something.

The point is Trump IS leading down Venezuela's path. It doesn't matter if your leader is socialist or nationalist, if they are against things like: free press, fair open elections, and smearing/suppressing your enemies, you will end up at the same point (a corrupt, dysfunctional weak government).
We are more likely to end up with a Venuezela outcome with a nationalist leader like Trump, than a moderate Democratic president who believes (and follows the rules of) democratic processes. Because our democratic process has things like checks and balances, like legislature writing the bills. That the Supreme court is independent of the executive branch and not a rubber stamp.

Things that you fear, like larger social programs, in a democratic country still need to be written and pass the legislature, which is elected by the public. A democratic president still has to work with congress.
In contrast someone like Trump, he has stated his is pro both funding and also changing laws by executive order, no legislature needed. He is pro nominating people like Kavanaugh who are underqualified but have allegiance to him.

How do you not see this?

By any measure in the long run (economically, budget, environment, security, energy resources) we are far better off with a democratic candidate. Even analyses show that democratic presidents are better at reducing the deficit (which you say you are so concerned about) than republican presidents.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2019, 10:53:08 AM by partgypsy »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8086 on: July 29, 2019, 11:26:25 AM »

Right now none of the programs really seem like they would put us on that path but buying votes by promoting things like UBI, loan forgiveness, reparations, medicare for all is a start.   What happens is a cascade, where the economic output falls and then more social programs must be offered to buy more votes.


I can see how these could cynically be viewed as "vote buying".  However I don't think that is fair - any/every politician will attempt to enact policies which will make him/her popular enough to gain votes.  One could just as easily (and cynically) view the tax cuts (the TCJA) as "buying votes."


So I think it's more important to look at any proposals on their merit rather than cynically dismissing them as a ploy to gain votes.  I'm neither sold nor necessarily opposed to the UBI idea (it's been used elsewhere to mixed success).  Strictly regarding health care and "medicare for all" - I feel what people miss is that we are already spending this money, and spending it very inefficiently. Currrently the overwhelming majority of people get their health coverage through either their or their spouse's employer (~158 million), which in turn gets a modest subsidy from the government in the form of less taxes.  Another large chunk gets their health care through medicare/medicaid (>80 million) or on subsidized plans through the ACA.  Among the un-insured/under-insured much of that tab gets picked up by the taxpayer either directly (e.g. emergency services not paid for) or indirectly (lost productivity from people who don't get proper care).

point is - while the numbers for a single-payer option look big and scary, the realty is we're already paying that now.  The difference would just be how its paid for, and whether there could be cost savings if we went about it in another way.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8087 on: July 29, 2019, 12:22:38 PM »
Venezuela nationalized their own oil industry to enrich people connected with the government, and ran it into the ground. I guess if you think that's a concern with a liberal or moderate/centrist president, then that would be worth voting for Trump. But the Venezuela analogy really makes no sense here, at least to me - because IMO Trump is much more likely to lead the US down that path.

The concern is really corruption, not the specific politics involved. There are plenty of examples of very capitalist corrupt countries being run into the ground to go with socialist/communist countries going the same way. My personal feeling is that Trump is pretty high on the corrupt-tendencies scale. Obviously others disagree on that.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8088 on: July 30, 2019, 07:06:21 AM »
Welp, Dan Coats is out as director of national intelligence.

God help us if anything really serious ever happens to the US with this skeleton crew of incompetent toadies on watch.

Yeah, this is pretty terrifying - https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/texas/article/Doubts-emerge-about-Trump-pick-for-US-14201929.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=HC_DailyHeadlines&utm_term=news&utm_content=headlines

Quote
WASHINGTON (AP) ó President Donald Trump's pick for national intelligence director has been mayor of a small Texas city, a federal prosecutor and a member of Congress. But questions were already emerging Monday about whether those qualifications are adequate for the position as the nation confronts threats that include foreign election interference, North Korea's nuclear ambitions and the risk of war with Iran.

Republican Rep. John Ratcliffe is also known as a Trump loyalist, which makes his lack of relevant experience even more striking at a time when current and former government officials expect Russia to look to interfere in the 2020 presidential election just as it did in unprecedented fashion when Trump first ran.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8089 on: July 30, 2019, 07:16:43 AM »
Russia interferes with US elections on Trump's behalf.  Did anyone really expect Trump to do anything to try and put an end to that?  It would be quite out of character.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8090 on: July 30, 2019, 09:06:04 AM »
I think we expected that a system of checks and balances would allow for oversight from non-Trump branches of the government.

I think we expected that our values of equality before the law and free and fair elections would be defended.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8091 on: July 30, 2019, 09:46:28 AM »
I think we expected that a system of checks and balances would allow for oversight from non-Trump branches of the government.

I think we expected that our values of equality before the law and free and fair elections would be defended.

I think our founders made a grave mistake in thinking that the president could reliably be held accountable for crimes through a political process (probably due to an unrealistic hope that we would be able to avoid political parties).

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8092 on: July 30, 2019, 09:55:40 AM »
I think we expected that a system of checks and balances would allow for oversight from non-Trump branches of the government.

I think we expected that our values of equality before the law and free and fair elections would be defended.

I think our founders made a grave mistake in thinking that the president could reliably be held accountable for crimes through a political process (probably due to an unrealistic hope that we would be able to avoid political parties).

This was a core reason why presidential term limits were defined within the Constitution itself; the Founding Fathers ultimately wanted another check on presidential power, namely the choice of the people.  In the Federalist #72 Hamilton argues that "re-eligibility" (i.e. periodic elections) of a sitting president is essential to curb executive power.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8093 on: July 30, 2019, 10:44:55 AM »
I think we expected that a system of checks and balances would allow for oversight from non-Trump branches of the government.

I think we expected that our values of equality before the law and free and fair elections would be defended.

I think our founders made a grave mistake in thinking that the president could reliably be held accountable for crimes through a political process (probably due to an unrealistic hope that we would be able to avoid political parties).

This was a core reason why presidential term limits were defined within the Constitution itself; the Founding Fathers ultimately wanted another check on presidential power, namely the choice of the people states.  In the Federalist #72 Hamilton argues that "re-eligibility" (i.e. periodic elections) of a sitting president is essential to curb executive power.

FTFY.

Also, still a political process.

Also, all of this means that the president is still treated completely differently from anyone else who breaks the law.  Our founders may have paid plenty of lip service to "the rule of law", but they utterly failed at setting up a system that upholds that principle.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8094 on: July 30, 2019, 10:52:51 AM »
I think we expected that a system of checks and balances would allow for oversight from non-Trump branches of the government.

I think we expected that our values of equality before the law and free and fair elections would be defended.

I think our founders made a grave mistake in thinking that the president could reliably be held accountable for crimes through a political process (probably due to an unrealistic hope that we would be able to avoid political parties).

This was a core reason why presidential term limits were defined within the Constitution itself; the Founding Fathers ultimately wanted another check on presidential power, namely the choice of the people states.  In the Federalist #72 Hamilton argues that "re-eligibility" (i.e. periodic elections) of a sitting president is essential to curb executive power.

FTFY.

Also, still a political process.

Also, all of this means that the president is still treated completely differently from anyone else who breaks the law.  Our founders may have paid plenty of lip service to "the rule of law", but they utterly failed at setting up a system that upholds that principle.
The basis of the problem in the USA is that the Head of State (usually not subject to the standard legal processes) is the same person who exercises ultimate executive power, including over judicial process.  You solve this problem altogether by separating the two roles, so that the Head of State who is not subject to judicial process is a powerless figurehead while the head of the executive is subject to all the usual legal processes.  As in, oh let's say for example, a constitutional monarchy.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8095 on: July 30, 2019, 04:33:37 PM »
See, this is how you can twist facts to suit your view.   The child who died of dehydration while "in custody" had not been given water for several days by her parent(s).  She died 8 hours after crossing the border after her father had assured authorities she was in good health.

Yeah, I'm sure her father just didn't give her any water. I can't imagine deciding to risk the life of my child with a border crossing attempt because it's a better choice than staying where you were. But rationalize whatever you need to feel better about how poor conditions are at the border. It's probably just some crazy lefty conspiracy, if that's what helps you sleep at night.

That kid was "in custody" meaning that her health was the absolute responsibility of those detaining her. It just proves the ineptitude of those running that shit show on the border. She probably looked fine. Kids are surprisingly medically resilient.... until they're not. There should have been evaluated by an actual provider soon after being detained.

Aside- But lets be real, they don't care. This is willful incompetence. I can only imagine them trying to make conditions as poor as possible without actually killing people en masse. They thought these concentration camps would deter those making the crossings. No fucking soap or showers? No toothpaste? Lights on 24/7? WTF man, how can anyone even try to rationalize that shit? I guess if you made a lot of money off of these no-bid-contract camps it'd be ok.

I wonder how the Trump plan to cut foreign aid along with other problematic foreign policy to certain Central American countries will affect border crossing rates? Į\_(ツ)_/Į

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8096 on: July 30, 2019, 04:41:28 PM »
I think Trump is racist and sexist ...
I would still vote for Trump

Do read your own words before you post?

There's no "but" after saying someone is racist and sexist.

You're making me so weak.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8097 on: July 30, 2019, 09:46:21 PM »
I think Trump is racist and sexist ...
I would still vote for Trump

Do read your own words before you post?

There's no "but" after saying someone is racist and sexist.

You're making me so weak.

I would take racism and sexism over socialism.  I would take ineptitude over socialism.

Just give me a fiscally responsible moderate democrat and I would vote for them in a heartbeat over Trump.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8098 on: July 30, 2019, 10:26:30 PM »
You don't have to worry then, you can vote for literally anyone running against Trump; we don't even have a socialist party that has any sort of power in the US.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #8099 on: July 31, 2019, 01:11:01 AM »
I would take racism and sexism over socialism. 

I think that perfectly encapsulates your thoughts on the matter - you are comfortable with living in a society that discriminates over the majority as long as you are promised to be in the minority 'winning' group.  I don't think that is a popular opinion among modern Americans, but there certainly are vocal supporters of this outdated ideology that have sprung up during the Trump presidency, which fits in perfectly with this thread.  Thanks for pointing it out.