Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 370055 times)

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3100 on: July 22, 2018, 11:55:52 AM »
Identity and interest are different things. Until middle class liberal Americans get over this "why are you so stupid to vote for him?" stuff and actually talk to some working class Americans - the salaried talking to the waged and unemployed - Trump and his like will keep winning elections.


"When we believe our rhetoric and use coddled, middle-class experience as our reference point, we lose sight of practical objectives, and ignore obvious risks as well as genuine social accomplishments.

"Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of a middle-class life is the extent to which it shields its beneficiaries from fundamental, brutal realities. Most lower class people of all ethnicities quickly learn that universal justice doesnít exist, and probably never will, yet unbridled fantasies of fairness are continually thrust upon them from above."

and

"Trump might be increasing economic inequality, but at least the working-class whites feel like they belong in Trumpís America."



https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/31/trump-white-working-class-history-216200
https://meanjin.com.au/essays/in-defence-of-the-bad-white-working-class/

The best lie is the one people want to believe; the lie that you can Make America Great Again, or the even bigger lie that America Is Still Great We Just Need To Shuffle The Deckchairs A Bit. Until you actually speak to poor people and understand why they believe what they do (hint, no, it's not because they're evil or stupid), you're going to keep getting more of the same.

However, it is in the nature of elites to destroy themselves. Let them eat cake! she said with a laugh, and soon was under the guillotine. I am hopeful for you, but not optimistic.

No, no they won't. Those votes really aren't necessary for a Trump defeat. And trying to turn people who, as I stated, will vote for the letter over their own self interest is pointless. As @nereo said, people just need to show up at the polls. I am really hoping for another Bernie run!

Johnez

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3101 on: July 22, 2018, 01:21:06 PM »
@nereo
That's the thing-I don't believe there is a huge wall to overcome, that's why I mention the old blue states and the fact that he doesn't really have a good hold on these states. His campaign targeted voters. It wasn't just the rhetoric that swayed them either, the issues have been present and ignored for decades. Once American factories are now Mexican, Chinese, overseas. Good jobs replaced by Walmart jobs. 3% unemployment is great, but where are the good jobs? Small wonder that guys making $30 an hour at an auto parts factory have shit for choices when their factory move to Mexico and make do with Walmart. Still employed, but worse off. Wages have been stagnant for years, dropping among white males. Yes, there's a skills gap, we have 20 year factory workers that now need an education to work when they didn't before. They also have 2 kids in sports, a Ford F150, and a mortgage to pay. A lot of this is beyond Trump, he just rode the wave of disappointed and disaffected voters. His grip is weak, but he IS doing something. Not sure how it will pan out. Ds are doing themselves a disservice though by focusing on Trump instead of voters. Trump's sucking all the air out of the room with every movement he makes, and media just plays along....

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3102 on: July 22, 2018, 01:30:28 PM »
@nereo
That's the thing-I don't believe there is a huge wall to overcome, that's why I mention the old blue states and the fact that he doesn't really have a good hold on these states. His campaign targeted voters. It wasn't just the rhetoric that swayed them either, the issues have been present and ignored for decades. Once American factories are now Mexican, Chinese, overseas. Good jobs replaced by Walmart jobs. 3% unemployment is great, but where are the good jobs? Small wonder that guys making $30 an hour at an auto parts factory have shit for choices when their factory move to Mexico and make do with Walmart. Still employed, but worse off. Wages have been stagnant for years, dropping among white males. Yes, there's a skills gap, we have 20 year factory workers that now need an education to work when they didn't before. They also have 2 kids in sports, a Ford F150, and a mortgage to pay. A lot of this is beyond Trump, he just rode the wave of disappointed and disaffected voters. His grip is weak, but he IS doing something. Not sure how it will pan out. Ds are doing themselves a disservice though by focusing on Trump instead of voters. Trump's sucking all the air out of the room with every movement he makes, and media just plays along....

Yeah, absolutely, but I'm skeptical those jobs will ever come back regardless of what Trump or anyone does. Tariffs won't do it and a international corporate tax break won't do it either.

Will a massive job training plan offered by any candidate actually influence voters? Or does it come down to who can lie the loudest?

If a candidate actually stated that the world has changed and those jobs weren't returning, and we'll help you adapt, what would happen? Would he/she make it out of the primary?

Gin1984

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3103 on: July 22, 2018, 02:50:19 PM »
Identity and interest are different things. Until middle class liberal Americans get over this "why are you so stupid to vote for him?" stuff and actually talk to some working class Americans - the salaried talking to the waged and unemployed - Trump and his like will keep winning elections.


"When we believe our rhetoric and use coddled, middle-class experience as our reference point, we lose sight of practical objectives, and ignore obvious risks as well as genuine social accomplishments.

"Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of a middle-class life is the extent to which it shields its beneficiaries from fundamental, brutal realities. Most lower class people of all ethnicities quickly learn that universal justice doesnít exist, and probably never will, yet unbridled fantasies of fairness are continually thrust upon them from above."

and

"Trump might be increasing economic inequality, but at least the working-class whites feel like they belong in Trumpís America."



https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/31/trump-white-working-class-history-216200
https://meanjin.com.au/essays/in-defence-of-the-bad-white-working-class/

The best lie is the one people want to believe; the lie that you can Make America Great Again, or the even bigger lie that America Is Still Great We Just Need To Shuffle The Deckchairs A Bit. Until you actually speak to poor people and understand why they believe what they do (hint, no, it's not because they're evil or stupid), you're going to keep getting more of the same.

However, it is in the nature of elites to destroy themselves. Let them eat cake! she said with a laugh, and soon was under the guillotine. I am hopeful for you, but not optimistic.
I have spoken to many, I work in rural Iowa.  The lack of knowledge and willingness to believe Trump over the majority of people educated in the field is something I can't totally wrap my head around.  But I've been told by them, that they don't think you learn anything in high education, it is just a bunch of BS. So, I do understand somewhat.  But I'm not sure what talking will do at that point.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3104 on: July 22, 2018, 04:17:16 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trey-gowdy-trump-apos-aides-185304931.html

Very un-Gowdy like. Perhaps some semblance of a spine is beginning to form? 

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3105 on: July 22, 2018, 05:07:00 PM »
And at the end of 4 years when manufacturing...jobs still haven't come back what then?
What if they have?

E.g., see Bureau of Labor Statistics Data for manufacturing jobs (I didn't check coal jobs, but "manufacturing" is of broader voter interest than "coal").

It's a statistic, and we know how statistics can be used, but Trump can easily make a defensible case that "the manufacturing recovery had stalled under Obama but picked up after my election" using that data.

Of course, time will tell whether that continues, but at the moment it's favorable for Trump.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3106 on: July 22, 2018, 05:27:12 PM »
@nereo
That's the thing-I don't believe there is a huge wall to overcome, that's why I mention the old blue states and the fact that he doesn't really have a good hold on these states. His campaign targeted voters. It wasn't just the rhetoric that swayed them either, the issues have been present and ignored for decades. Once American factories are now Mexican, Chinese, overseas. Good jobs replaced by Walmart jobs. 3% unemployment is great, but where are the good jobs? Small wonder that guys making $30 an hour at an auto parts factory have shit for choices when their factory move to Mexico and make do with Walmart. Still employed, but worse off. Wages have been stagnant for years, dropping among white males. Yes, there's a skills gap, we have 20 year factory workers that now need an education to work when they didn't before. They also have 2 kids in sports, a Ford F150, and a mortgage to pay. A lot of this is beyond Trump, he just rode the wave of disappointed and disaffected voters. His grip is weak, but he IS doing something. Not sure how it will pan out. Ds are doing themselves a disservice though by focusing on Trump instead of voters. Trump's sucking all the air out of the room with every movement he makes, and media just plays along....

Going into the philisophical here - I think people's unmet (and unrealistic) expectations are a big factor here.  "Wages have been stagnant" is the same thing as "wages are about as high as they have ever been". Yet people have been trained to expect more income for doing the same job with the same level of training and education. Simultaneously we're buying bigger houses, more expensive trucks and taking more frequent airplane vacations.  During the late 1990s we were patting ourselves on the back for having a highest median income and the highest standard of living ever in our country (and for any country in the world).  Twenty years later we've actually surpassed that - but just barely.  Unfortunately expectations have been set - without 5% raises above inflation we call ourselves 'stuck'.  So politicians keep cutting taxes to give the "struggling middle class a break" - and services predictably fall when revenue falls far short of expenses. We cut both federal and state-level support for universities, and then act shocked when tuition keeps going up. Our American-superiority complex gets bruised when citizens from other countries suddenly approach or surpass us in income - rather than celebrate more people joining this group we get angry and blame them for stealing our gains and taking our jobs, regardless of whether they are equally trained, better educated and harder working than we've managed to be.
This strays quite a bit from what Trump, but encompasses the politics from both parties.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3107 on: July 22, 2018, 09:29:59 PM »
As is increasingly frequently the case these days, after a weekend off from political developments, I'm interested to see what this next whirlwind week will bring.  Will it be developments on the Mueller and Manhattan Madam front?  Cohen dropping more bombshells?  Something international like NATO allies proactively distancing themselves from an increasingly pro-Russian Trump?  Or will it just be an extension of the already counterproductive Trump ramping up his China (and NAFTA, and EU) trade wars?  Maybe someone will say the wrong thing and Trump will lash out by firing more staff or Tweeting more embarrassing un-Presidential bullying BS.  Good thing Melania launched an anti-bullying message!  Probably going to be a buffet of all of the above... 

All I can say is, ugh.  While I don't think USA will implode, it is still tragically wasting a tremendous lead.  Thinking back over this year, other than Trump, it has really been awesome.  So yeah, maybe the best thing is to make sure my family is not blinded by the past glory America enjoyed.  Growing up, my family moved to the US from the UK figuring it was a preferable future.  Maybe America's ship has sailed and Europe or the Far East is the next great place to flourish.  Europeans have a much better work / life balance (and subsidized healthcare, education, public transport, retirement, and job security) and China is enjoying a swift rise in standard of living.  America gets to enjoy either loving a President that only loves and benefits himself, or hating a President that they can't seem to get rid of.

TrudgingAlong

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3108 on: July 22, 2018, 11:57:08 PM »
@nereo
That's the thing-I don't believe there is a huge wall to overcome, that's why I mention the old blue states and the fact that he doesn't really have a good hold on these states. His campaign targeted voters. It wasn't just the rhetoric that swayed them either, the issues have been present and ignored for decades. Once American factories are now Mexican, Chinese, overseas. Good jobs replaced by Walmart jobs. 3% unemployment is great, but where are the good jobs? Small wonder that guys making $30 an hour at an auto parts factory have shit for choices when their factory move to Mexico and make do with Walmart. Still employed, but worse off. Wages have been stagnant for years, dropping among white males. Yes, there's a skills gap, we have 20 year factory workers that now need an education to work when they didn't before. They also have 2 kids in sports, a Ford F150, and a mortgage to pay. A lot of this is beyond Trump, he just rode the wave of disappointed and disaffected voters. His grip is weak, but he IS doing something. Not sure how it will pan out. Ds are doing themselves a disservice though by focusing on Trump instead of voters. Trump's sucking all the air out of the room with every movement he makes, and media just plays along....

Going into the philisophical here - I think people's unmet (and unrealistic) expectations are a big factor here.  "Wages have been stagnant" is the same thing as "wages are about as high as they have ever been". Yet people have been trained to expect more income for doing the same job with the same level of training and education. Simultaneously we're buying bigger houses, more expensive trucks and taking more frequent airplane vacations.  During the late 1990s we were patting ourselves on the back for having a highest median income and the highest standard of living ever in our country (and for any country in the world).  Twenty years later we've actually surpassed that - but just barely.  Unfortunately expectations have been set - without 5% raises above inflation we call ourselves 'stuck'.  So politicians keep cutting taxes to give the "struggling middle class a break" - and services predictably fall when revenue falls far short of expenses. We cut both federal and state-level support for universities, and then act shocked when tuition keeps going up. Our American-superiority complex gets bruised when citizens from other countries suddenly approach or surpass us in income - rather than celebrate more people joining this group we get angry and blame them for stealing our gains and taking our jobs, regardless of whether they are equally trained, better educated and harder working than we've managed to be.
This strays quite a bit from what Trump, but encompasses the politics from both parties.

To add to your points: why the hell do poeple piss and moan about their dying towns and lack of opportunities instead of picking up and moving somewhere better? Things change, industry moves or ends, this is how itís always been and always will be. No oneís town or city is special or deserves extra help to survive just because you wish it.

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3109 on: July 23, 2018, 12:35:51 AM »
@nereo
That's the thing-I don't believe there is a huge wall to overcome, that's why I mention the old blue states and the fact that he doesn't really have a good hold on these states. His campaign targeted voters. It wasn't just the rhetoric that swayed them either, the issues have been present and ignored for decades. Once American factories are now Mexican, Chinese, overseas. Good jobs replaced by Walmart jobs. 3% unemployment is great, but where are the good jobs? Small wonder that guys making $30 an hour at an auto parts factory have shit for choices when their factory move to Mexico and make do with Walmart. Still employed, but worse off. Wages have been stagnant for years, dropping among white males. Yes, there's a skills gap, we have 20 year factory workers that now need an education to work when they didn't before. They also have 2 kids in sports, a Ford F150, and a mortgage to pay. A lot of this is beyond Trump, he just rode the wave of disappointed and disaffected voters. His grip is weak, but he IS doing something. Not sure how it will pan out. Ds are doing themselves a disservice though by focusing on Trump instead of voters. Trump's sucking all the air out of the room with every movement he makes, and media just plays along....

Going into the philisophical here - I think people's unmet (and unrealistic) expectations are a big factor here.  "Wages have been stagnant" is the same thing as "wages are about as high as they have ever been". Yet people have been trained to expect more income for doing the same job with the same level of training and education. Simultaneously we're buying bigger houses, more expensive trucks and taking more frequent airplane vacations.  During the late 1990s we were patting ourselves on the back for having a highest median income and the highest standard of living ever in our country (and for any country in the world).  Twenty years later we've actually surpassed that - but just barely.  Unfortunately expectations have been set - without 5% raises above inflation we call ourselves 'stuck'.  So politicians keep cutting taxes to give the "struggling middle class a break" - and services predictably fall when revenue falls far short of expenses. We cut both federal and state-level support for universities, and then act shocked when tuition keeps going up. Our American-superiority complex gets bruised when citizens from other countries suddenly approach or surpass us in income - rather than celebrate more people joining this group we get angry and blame them for stealing our gains and taking our jobs, regardless of whether they are equally trained, better educated and harder working than we've managed to be.
This strays quite a bit from what Trump, but encompasses the politics from both parties.

To add to your points: why the hell do poeple piss and moan about their dying towns and lack of opportunities instead of picking up and moving somewhere better? Things change, industry moves or ends, this is how itís always been and always will be. No oneís town or city is special or deserves extra help to survive just because you wish it.


People  don't move because they have bought their houses and can't sell them, or can't afford to buy in a more prosperous location.  And also because they have no money saved with which to make the move.


It's very rarely the very poorest who move, whether within a country or between countries.  Moving takes resources, and people who don't have resources can't move.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3110 on: July 23, 2018, 03:48:35 AM »
Has anyone speculated on Trump declaring himself President for life? Could he sign an executive order and make it happen?

Gin1984

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3111 on: July 23, 2018, 04:37:58 AM »
Has anyone speculated on Trump declaring himself President for life? Could he sign an executive order and make it happen?
No, that would be against our constitution.  Now that said, would congress impeach him for trying?  Well, I thought they would impeach him prior to this so what do I know?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3112 on: July 23, 2018, 04:40:07 AM »
To add to your points: why the hell do poeple piss and moan about their dying towns and lack of opportunities instead of picking up and moving somewhere better? Things change, industry moves or ends, this is how itís always been and always will be. No oneís town or city is special or deserves extra help to survive just because you wish it.
It's this kind of attitude of obliviousness to the real challenges part of your country faces which helps ensure votes for Trump. Keep going like this, and the US can go the way of the SU.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3113 on: July 23, 2018, 06:31:35 AM »
And at the end of 4 years when manufacturing...jobs still haven't come back what then?
What if they have?

E.g., see Bureau of Labor Statistics Data for manufacturing jobs (I didn't check coal jobs, but "manufacturing" is of broader voter interest than "coal").

It's a statistic, and we know how statistics can be used, but Trump can easily make a defensible case that "the manufacturing recovery had stalled under Obama but picked up after my election" using that data.

Of course, time will tell whether that continues, but at the moment it's favorable for Trump.

It didn't actually stall under Obama. Once the recession was under control manufacturing jobs actually increased. You are guilty of the very "statistic manipulation." Obama was handed a shit sandwich and pooped out a gold nugget.

Manufacturing jobs could keep increasing and I hope they do despite Trump's failed policies of re-negotiating NAFTA etc. which is what he claimed would bring back traditional jobs. But employees have been for a while and have plans to continue implementing job training programs as traditional jobs (like pushing a pipe) have continued to disappear and be replaced with more skilled jobs (like operating a robot). Remember what "out of touch" Hillary Clinton proposed? She proposed investing a ton of money into more training programs. This just goes to prove my very point. Trump's wants to bring back traditional manufacturing jobs but can't and isn't going to (certainly he is trying). Clinton and the Dems are more focused on current trends in manufacturing and investing in those trends.

Couple those training programs with the weakening dollar and you absolutely will see an increase in manufacturing jobs. Thanks for the graphs. Try expanding them out since 1985 and draw a trend line. Let me know what you find ( :

You do propose a good question though. My belief is that if manufacturing jobs keep increasing despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts to go about it the wrong way, the increases will be attributed to "savior" Trump himself.

« Last Edit: July 23, 2018, 07:01:50 AM by MasterStache »

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3114 on: July 23, 2018, 06:49:22 AM »
Has anyone speculated on Trump declaring himself President for life? Could he sign an executive order and make it happen?

No, he could not sign an executive order to declare himself 'President for life'. The 22nd amendment limits a president to two elected terms of 4 years each (they do not have to be consecutive terms). A new constitutional amendment would need to be ratified to change this, and as we discussed many pages ago, the bar for a constitutional amendment is incredibly high. Either 2/3rds of BOTH houses have to approve it (which would include 67 senators and 288 house members) OR at least 34 states. Neither party has had anything close to this level of control in generations. It's such a high standard that only 17 amendments have been ratified in the last 200+ years (with the original 10 conditional to the ratification of the Constitution in 1787).

Then of course there's the practical aspect - DJT is 72 right now and is certainly overweight with poor health habits. There's a strong probability that he'll suffer significant decline and/or pass away in the next 6-10 years.


GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3116 on: July 23, 2018, 07:21:46 AM »
@nereo
That's the thing-I don't believe there is a huge wall to overcome, that's why I mention the old blue states and the fact that he doesn't really have a good hold on these states. His campaign targeted voters. It wasn't just the rhetoric that swayed them either, the issues have been present and ignored for decades. Once American factories are now Mexican, Chinese, overseas. Good jobs replaced by Walmart jobs. 3% unemployment is great, but where are the good jobs? Small wonder that guys making $30 an hour at an auto parts factory have shit for choices when their factory move to Mexico and make do with Walmart. Still employed, but worse off. Wages have been stagnant for years, dropping among white males. Yes, there's a skills gap, we have 20 year factory workers that now need an education to work when they didn't before. They also have 2 kids in sports, a Ford F150, and a mortgage to pay. A lot of this is beyond Trump, he just rode the wave of disappointed and disaffected voters. His grip is weak, but he IS doing something. Not sure how it will pan out. Ds are doing themselves a disservice though by focusing on Trump instead of voters. Trump's sucking all the air out of the room with every movement he makes, and media just plays along....

Going into the philisophical here - I think people's unmet (and unrealistic) expectations are a big factor here.  "Wages have been stagnant" is the same thing as "wages are about as high as they have ever been". Yet people have been trained to expect more income for doing the same job with the same level of training and education. Simultaneously we're buying bigger houses, more expensive trucks and taking more frequent airplane vacations.  During the late 1990s we were patting ourselves on the back for having a highest median income and the highest standard of living ever in our country (and for any country in the world).  Twenty years later we've actually surpassed that - but just barely.  Unfortunately expectations have been set - without 5% raises above inflation we call ourselves 'stuck'.  So politicians keep cutting taxes to give the "struggling middle class a break" - and services predictably fall when revenue falls far short of expenses. We cut both federal and state-level support for universities, and then act shocked when tuition keeps going up. Our American-superiority complex gets bruised when citizens from other countries suddenly approach or surpass us in income - rather than celebrate more people joining this group we get angry and blame them for stealing our gains and taking our jobs, regardless of whether they are equally trained, better educated and harder working than we've managed to be.
This strays quite a bit from what Trump, but encompasses the politics from both parties.

Earnings haven't been stagnant though.  They've been steadily increasing for the richest people.  They've stagnated for the poor and middle class.  You're right - things are pretty good for everyone right now . . . but that doesn't mean that a lot of people aren't being left out of the nation-wide prosperity that's currently going on.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2018, 07:29:40 AM by GuitarStv »

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3117 on: July 23, 2018, 07:28:09 AM »
@nereo
That's the thing-I don't believe there is a huge wall to overcome, that's why I mention the old blue states and the fact that he doesn't really have a good hold on these states. His campaign targeted voters. It wasn't just the rhetoric that swayed them either, the issues have been present and ignored for decades. Once American factories are now Mexican, Chinese, overseas. Good jobs replaced by Walmart jobs. 3% unemployment is great, but where are the good jobs? Small wonder that guys making $30 an hour at an auto parts factory have shit for choices when their factory move to Mexico and make do with Walmart. Still employed, but worse off. Wages have been stagnant for years, dropping among white males. Yes, there's a skills gap, we have 20 year factory workers that now need an education to work when they didn't before. They also have 2 kids in sports, a Ford F150, and a mortgage to pay. A lot of this is beyond Trump, he just rode the wave of disappointed and disaffected voters. His grip is weak, but he IS doing something. Not sure how it will pan out. Ds are doing themselves a disservice though by focusing on Trump instead of voters. Trump's sucking all the air out of the room with every movement he makes, and media just plays along....

Going into the philisophical here - I think people's unmet (and unrealistic) expectations are a big factor here.  "Wages have been stagnant" is the same thing as "wages are about as high as they have ever been". Yet people have been trained to expect more income for doing the same job with the same level of training and education. Simultaneously we're buying bigger houses, more expensive trucks and taking more frequent airplane vacations.  During the late 1990s we were patting ourselves on the back for having a highest median income and the highest standard of living ever in our country (and for any country in the world).  Twenty years later we've actually surpassed that - but just barely.  Unfortunately expectations have been set - without 5% raises above inflation we call ourselves 'stuck'.  So politicians keep cutting taxes to give the "struggling middle class a break" - and services predictably fall when revenue falls far short of expenses. We cut both federal and state-level support for universities, and then act shocked when tuition keeps going up. Our American-superiority complex gets bruised when citizens from other countries suddenly approach or surpass us in income - rather than celebrate more people joining this group we get angry and blame them for stealing our gains and taking our jobs, regardless of whether they are equally trained, better educated and harder working than we've managed to be.
This strays quite a bit from what Trump, but encompasses the politics from both parties.

Earnings haven't been stagnant though.  They've been steadily increasing for the richest people.  They've stagnated for the poor and middle class.  You're right - things are pretty good for everyone right now . . . but that doesn't mean that a lot of people are being left out of the nation-wide prosperity that's currently going on.

True.  And it all feeds into the narrative; the middle class see the wealthy making huge gains, and by association they feel much poorer, even though by about every measure they have more discretionary income than at any point in history.  So we get tax cuts that mostly benefit the rich but to some degree the middle class, which ironically exacerbates the problem of the middle class feeling poorer and poorer.

StarBright

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3118 on: July 23, 2018, 08:19:55 AM »
I talk to a lot of those ďworking classĒ Americans everyday at work.  A lot of them love Trump, not because they think that he is going to bring prosperity, but literally because ďhe owns the libs.Ē  They honestly donít care that he does anything tangible for them, because the ďfeelĒ better since they believe the president is attacking the other team on a daily basis.  Itís pure negative partisanship.

Talking to these people made me realize that trying to argue with them is pointless.  I have tried.  You are bringing facts to an emotion fight.  These people donít really believe their lives will get better, so they might as well burn the whole thing down.  Trump has a certain genius, probably related to his obvious malignant narcissism, of exploiting the negative emotions of people for his own benefit.  His family and the other plutocrats are all going to be wealthy for generations due to the graft that is going down right now.

The only chance we have of reducing his influence is by increasing independent turn out, which is honestly a long shot.

^this is my experience too. Though in my social circle/family there is a second group that don't care much about socking it to liberals but their Trump support is from more of a religious place. They fear that Christians are becoming outnumbered in the US, Trump can give them the courts that they prefer and he has to be blessed by God or else he wouldn't have won.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3119 on: July 23, 2018, 08:25:37 AM »
Honestly, the Democrats cannot bring Trump down. Checks and balances aren't really working. I think a Republican, or a group of Republicans need to take Trump down for the sake of the country and the future of their party's viability. That person or persons will be remembered in history as a hero. Does any Republican have the guts and honor to do it? So far, no.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3120 on: July 23, 2018, 08:31:45 AM »

^this is my experience too. Though in my social circle/family there is a second group that don't care much about socking it to liberals but their Trump support is from more of a religious place. They fear that Christians are becoming outnumbered in the US, Trump can give them the courts that they prefer and he has to be blessed by God or else he wouldn't have won.

I know that this is true, but it absolutely astounds me that people will support a thrice-married adulterer who brags about his sexual exploits, demonizes the poor and the needy, threatens the use of extreme force and has never frequented a place of worship on religious grounds.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3121 on: July 23, 2018, 08:41:00 AM »

^this is my experience too. Though in my social circle/family there is a second group that don't care much about socking it to liberals but their Trump support is from more of a religious place. They fear that Christians are becoming outnumbered in the US, Trump can give them the courts that they prefer and he has to be blessed by God or else he wouldn't have won.

I know that this is true, but it absolutely astounds me that people will support a thrice-married adulterer who brags about his sexual exploits, demonizes the poor and the needy, threatens the use of extreme force and has never frequented a place of worship on religious grounds.

The argument that he is a vessel, an imperfect vessel to be sure, of God, and that God has chosen him for his work. However, I don't really see much evidence that he is a vessel for God. I think he is more a vessel of say, himself. That more perfectly reflects and explains pretty much EVERYTHING he does. No God needs to be invoked.
 
I think it only works for those in the Bible belt who feel anyone with an R behind their name is pro GOD, while those with D behind their name are the work of the devil. That's pretty much how it goes. Meanwhile, as Trump plays golf, Jimmy Carter, in his 90's, with cancer is building homes for the poor. Plain to see Jimmy Carter is a vessel of God. Trump, despite wishful thinking, no. 

Do not be deceived: ĎEvil company corrupts good habits... But now I have written to you not to keep company with anyone named a brother, who is sexually immoral, or covetous, or an idolater, or a reviler, or a drunkard, or an extortioneró not even to eat with such a person. - Corinthians 15:33.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2018, 08:49:23 AM by partgypsy »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3122 on: July 23, 2018, 08:53:19 AM »
Yeah, and thereís also the selective ďTrump was chosen by God, you can tell because he won,Ē but Obama is literally the anti-Christ despite the fact that he won by larger margins. Sigh.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3123 on: July 23, 2018, 08:58:30 AM »
Yeah, and thereís also the selective ďTrump was chosen by God, you can tell because he won,Ē but Obama is literally the anti-Christ despite the fact that he won by larger margins. Sigh.

Trump was the chosen of God because he won.  OK, if you win you do so because you have the support of the one true God.

The Christian religion is currently in decline in the US.  What does this tell you about the God you're worshiping?


:P

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3124 on: July 23, 2018, 09:48:39 AM »
There may be a tradition of scholarship in many religious groups/sects, but that is not to say that logical consistency should be expected... especially not from those who have dug deep on the history and underpinnings of the religion they follow. 

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3125 on: July 23, 2018, 10:11:57 AM »
There may be a tradition of scholarship in many religious groups/sects, but that is not to say that logical consistency should be expected... especially not from those who have dug deep on the history and underpinnings of the religion they follow.

So very true!

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3126 on: July 23, 2018, 02:59:00 PM »
To add to your points: why the hell do poeple piss and moan about their dying towns and lack of opportunities instead of picking up and moving somewhere better? Things change, industry moves or ends, this is how itís always been and always will be. No oneís town or city is special or deserves extra help to survive just because you wish it.
It's this kind of attitude of obliviousness to the real challenges part of your country faces which helps ensure votes for Trump. Keep going like this, and the US can go the way of the SU.

Please. These are the exact same people who hate anyone on welfare, believe in ďbootstrappingĒ everything, and despise the idea of government healthcare. But they are crying for the government to give them jobs and fix their towns. The hypocrisy is maddening. I get you think you are some kind of expert on life here in the US, but, um, you arenít.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2018, 03:03:14 PM by TrudgingAlong »

TrudgingAlong

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3127 on: July 23, 2018, 03:06:17 PM »
@nereo
That's the thing-I don't believe there is a huge wall to overcome, that's why I mention the old blue states and the fact that he doesn't really have a good hold on these states. His campaign targeted voters. It wasn't just the rhetoric that swayed them either, the issues have been present and ignored for decades. Once American factories are now Mexican, Chinese, overseas. Good jobs replaced by Walmart jobs. 3% unemployment is great, but where are the good jobs? Small wonder that guys making $30 an hour at an auto parts factory have shit for choices when their factory move to Mexico and make do with Walmart. Still employed, but worse off. Wages have been stagnant for years, dropping among white males. Yes, there's a skills gap, we have 20 year factory workers that now need an education to work when they didn't before. They also have 2 kids in sports, a Ford F150, and a mortgage to pay. A lot of this is beyond Trump, he just rode the wave of disappointed and disaffected voters. His grip is weak, but he IS doing something. Not sure how it will pan out. Ds are doing themselves a disservice though by focusing on Trump instead of voters. Trump's sucking all the air out of the room with every movement he makes, and media just plays along....

Going into the philisophical here - I think people's unmet (and unrealistic) expectations are a big factor here.  "Wages have been stagnant" is the same thing as "wages are about as high as they have ever been". Yet people have been trained to expect more income for doing the same job with the same level of training and education. Simultaneously we're buying bigger houses, more expensive trucks and taking more frequent airplane vacations.  During the late 1990s we were patting ourselves on the back for having a highest median income and the highest standard of living ever in our country (and for any country in the world).  Twenty years later we've actually surpassed that - but just barely.  Unfortunately expectations have been set - without 5% raises above inflation we call ourselves 'stuck'.  So politicians keep cutting taxes to give the "struggling middle class a break" - and services predictably fall when revenue falls far short of expenses. We cut both federal and state-level support for universities, and then act shocked when tuition keeps going up. Our American-superiority complex gets bruised when citizens from other countries suddenly approach or surpass us in income - rather than celebrate more people joining this group we get angry and blame them for stealing our gains and taking our jobs, regardless of whether they are equally trained, better educated and harder working than we've managed to be.
This strays quite a bit from what Trump, but encompasses the politics from both parties.

To add to your points: why the hell do poeple piss and moan about their dying towns and lack of opportunities instead of picking up and moving somewhere better? Things change, industry moves or ends, this is how itís always been and always will be. No oneís town or city is special or deserves extra help to survive just because you wish it.


People  don't move because they have bought their houses and can't sell them, or can't afford to buy in a more prosperous location.  And also because they have no money saved with which to make the move.


It's very rarely the very poorest who move, whether within a country or between countries.  Moving takes resources, and people who don't have resources can't move.

Yes, I get it. Itís hard. Itís easier to hope the government will just bring back coal. Iíve been a poor person who moved with only what I could put in my car. It can be done. Iím not even against job training and other things offered to help them move out. I just canít stand the hypocrisy of wanting everything to be the same as before while looking down on people who get government help like SNAP.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3128 on: July 23, 2018, 03:35:34 PM »


Yes, I get it. Itís hard. Itís easier to hope the government will just bring back coal. Iíve been a poor person who moved with only what I could put in my car. It can be done. Iím not even against job training and other things offered to help them move out. I just canít stand the hypocrisy of wanting everything to be the same as before while looking down on people who get government help like SNAP.

The thing is, if there was some sort of boom going on, people DO move. North Dakota, Silicon Valley, Seattle, Austin, TX, etc. There is a reason certain once affordable cities and towns are no longer affordable. People aren't sitting down and expecting a bailout. Yes YOU were able to pack your crap in a car. Try telling that to a family with deep ties to their community, family and friends and not a lot of money to simply pick up and move. Just because you in your circumstances were able to do it doesn't mean its a universal solution. Yeah, job training-thats a piece of cake too right? Lol. I'm going to school for refrigeration right now, with 2 kids, SO diagnosed with anxiety and depression, a 50-60 hour a week job that more than pays my bills but leaves my body too tired to enjoy anything but sleep-its effing hard. I don't expect everyone to suck it up and go because it often doesn't make sense. One can sit back and collect overtime for the next 5-10 years like a lot of these guys are around me, because it's way easier and financially sound in the short run, and I wouldn't blame them. I'll admit the freewheeling money spending probably contributes the most to how difficult it is to move on. Spending your hard earned dollars to get a nice shiny F150 is kinda what makes a lot of this economy go round though...

My main point is, it's not just individual cities that are going through "reorganization." Whole industries and sectors are evaporating. There is a reason the "Rust Belt" consists of several states. If it was just Detroit hell move on to Indianapolis. But it ain't. It takes quite a bit of dedication to research and figure out even the metrics of what makes sense. I didn't even know of my fortunate health care position being here in California where balance billing is banned.  Hell imagine my surprise when a routine blood panel that I thought would be covered is now several hundred bucks I didn't exactly plan for??? Several things to think about that ya might not have had to pause for yourself.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2018, 03:44:24 PM by Johnez »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3129 on: July 23, 2018, 04:03:29 PM »
I read Hillbilly Elegy last year. Offers a fantastic insight into the lives and decisions of rural America from someone who lived it and escaped it. Heroin is huge problem now in these areas. And it might surprise some to find out that many of these folks do have ways out but choose to stay. Anyways it was a great and hilarious read.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3130 on: July 23, 2018, 04:07:42 PM »
I read Hillbilly Elegy last year. Offers a fantastic insight into the lives and decisions of rural America from someone who lived it and escaped it. Heroin is huge problem now in these areas. And it might surprise some to find out that many of these folks do have ways out but choose to stay. Anyways it was a great and hilarious read.
The author of HE has some major blind spots, but I thought it was still a great read. American Nations is also worth a read for the regional differences.

TrudgingAlong

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3131 on: July 23, 2018, 04:14:12 PM »


Yes, I get it. Itís hard. Itís easier to hope the government will just bring back coal. Iíve been a poor person who moved with only what I could put in my car. It can be done. Iím not even against job training and other things offered to help them move out. I just canít stand the hypocrisy of wanting everything to be the same as before while looking down on people who get government help like SNAP.

The thing is, if there was some sort of boom going on, people DO move. North Dakota, Silicon Valley, Seattle, Austin, TX, etc. There is a reason certain once affordable cities and towns are no longer affordable. People aren't sitting down and expecting a bailout. Yes YOU were able to pack your crap in a car. Try telling that to a family with deep ties to their community, family and friends and not a lot of money to simply pick up and move. Just because you in your circumstances were able to do it doesn't mean its a universal solution. Yeah, job training-thats a piece of cake too right? Lol. I'm going to school for refrigeration right now, with 2 kids, SO diagnosed with anxiety and depression, a 50-60 hour a week job that more than pays my bills but leaves my body too tired to enjoy anything but sleep-its effing hard. I don't expect everyone to suck it up and go because it often doesn't make sense. One can sit back and collect overtime for the next 5-10 years like a lot of these guys are around me, because it's way easier and financially sound in the short run, and I wouldn't blame them. I'll admit the freewheeling money spending probably contributes the most to how difficult it is to move on. Spending your hard earned dollars to get a nice shiny F150 is kinda what makes a lot of this economy go round though...

My main point is, it's not just individual cities that are going through "reorganization." Whole industries and sectors are evaporating. There is a reason the "Rust Belt" consists of several states. If it was just Detroit hell move on to Indianapolis. But it ain't. It takes quite a bit of dedication to research and figure out even the metrics of what makes sense. I didn't even know of my fortunate health care position being here in California where balance billing is banned.  Hell imagine my surprise when a routine blood panel that I thought would be covered is now several hundred bucks I didn't exactly plan for??? Several things to think about that ya might not have had to pause for yourself.

As I said before, I get it. Iím not going to bother explaining my own history or family. Not your business. Life is complicated and itís shitty sometimes. People deserve a hand up, but not so much while they actively shit on other people.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3132 on: July 23, 2018, 04:16:28 PM »
I read Hillbilly Elegy last year. Offers a fantastic insight into the lives and decisions of rural America from someone who lived it and escaped it. Heroin is huge problem now in these areas. And it might surprise some to find out that many of these folks do have ways out but choose to stay. Anyways it was a great and hilarious read.
The author of HE has some major blind spots, but I thought it was still a great read. American Nations is also worth a read for the regional differences.

Agreed. I think the point he was making though is that it is possible for many folks to get out of these areas. There are opportunities. But the link to family and the growing issue with drugs is only exacerbating the problem. A quote that I always remember:
ďThere is a cultural movement in the white working class to blame problems on society or the government, and that movement gains adherents by the day.Ē

Perhaps growing up very close to Middletown, Ohio hits home as well. I very much understand his descriptions of the city and it's struggles.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3133 on: July 24, 2018, 08:09:54 AM »
The Trump voters in the once blue rust belt states aren't hard core Trumpsters. They were reached out to. While the Ds focused on the big metros, Rs took to the rural areas. Someone did the math and figured out the need and how to appeal to these voters. You guys saying his base doesn't care don't realize Trump is on very tenuous ground come 2020. By demonizing the base, you bring more of his base to the voting booth. Trump says a lot of things, but to a ton of these voters he cares about them. Not illegals. Not bathrooms. Not SJW issue. Trump appealed to mainstream issues. Jobs. Taxes. That's it. If I'm a former factory worker who's job got yanked away and was a blue union guy who thinks illegals and China took my job and Democrats wanna raise my taxes-guess what- I'm voting Trump. If Democrats start pushing mainstream issues, they too can win. Healthcare, poverty, jobs. Push that. Get the rest on the way after victory. Yes the bathroom thing is important, but guys who are living in worse conditions than 10 years ago don't really give a crap about that issue.

@Johnez
Where I disagree is the idea that there's a huge wall to overcome if DJT is to be defeated in 2020. Remember, he won by the most narrowest of margins in 2016, and his win had as much to do with the lack of participation from people who had voted for Obama as it did from newfound support from traditional rust-belt democrats. He also was running against a candidate who carried more political baggage (justifiably or not) than any recent candidate. Given DJT's disapproval ratings and under-water support levels (both worse for DJT than they were during the 2016 campaign) he'd lose in a generic election if held today.

I cannot honestly look at the data that are out there and believe this because of one important detail: he'd have to lose to a specific candidate. And the minute you put up a specific candidate--Kamala Harris, or Elizabeth Warren, or Eric Holder--you have someone who can be slimed by right-wing media to mobilize their base. Every news cycle saddens and discourages me, and yet I cannot see an honest path for Trump to lose re-election in 2020. Nineteen presidents have won two terms so far: it truly is the sitting President's election to lose.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3134 on: July 24, 2018, 08:43:02 AM »
The Trump voters in the once blue rust belt states aren't hard core Trumpsters. They were reached out to. While the Ds focused on the big metros, Rs took to the rural areas. Someone did the math and figured out the need and how to appeal to these voters. You guys saying his base doesn't care don't realize Trump is on very tenuous ground come 2020. By demonizing the base, you bring more of his base to the voting booth. Trump says a lot of things, but to a ton of these voters he cares about them. Not illegals. Not bathrooms. Not SJW issue. Trump appealed to mainstream issues. Jobs. Taxes. That's it. If I'm a former factory worker who's job got yanked away and was a blue union guy who thinks illegals and China took my job and Democrats wanna raise my taxes-guess what- I'm voting Trump. If Democrats start pushing mainstream issues, they too can win. Healthcare, poverty, jobs. Push that. Get the rest on the way after victory. Yes the bathroom thing is important, but guys who are living in worse conditions than 10 years ago don't really give a crap about that issue.

@Johnez
Where I disagree is the idea that there's a huge wall to overcome if DJT is to be defeated in 2020. Remember, he won by the most narrowest of margins in 2016, and his win had as much to do with the lack of participation from people who had voted for Obama as it did from newfound support from traditional rust-belt democrats. He also was running against a candidate who carried more political baggage (justifiably or not) than any recent candidate. Given DJT's disapproval ratings and under-water support levels (both worse for DJT than they were during the 2016 campaign) he'd lose in a generic election if held today.

I cannot honestly look at the data that are out there and believe this because of one important detail: he'd have to lose to a specific candidate. And the minute you put up a specific candidate--Kamala Harris, or Elizabeth Warren, or Eric Holder--you have someone who can be slimed by right-wing media to mobilize their base. Every news cycle saddens and discourages me, and yet I cannot see an honest path for Trump to lose re-election in 2020. Nineteen presidents have won two terms so far: it truly is the sitting President's election to lose.

I agree with this. Which breaks my heart, but it's true. I know a bunch of people who want Warren to run, but I'm convinced she doesn't have a chance. She's already been slimed. When I tell this to people who want her, they get very angry and say, "People who like her don't care that Trump calls her Pocahantas!" To which I reply, she's gonna have to win over a lot more people than just the ones who already like her. And the media, faced with Trump's insane reality-show-honed ranting, will do exactly what they did in 2016: report every single shitty thing he says about the opposing candidate, and completely ignore the fact that said candidate has actual platforms and positions. It will be all-Trump, all the time, all over again.

Hell, when I hear her name, I automatically think "Pocohontas." That is only going to get worse.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3135 on: July 24, 2018, 08:46:50 AM »
The Trump voters in the once blue rust belt states aren't hard core Trumpsters. They were reached out to. While the Ds focused on the big metros, Rs took to the rural areas. Someone did the math and figured out the need and how to appeal to these voters. You guys saying his base doesn't care don't realize Trump is on very tenuous ground come 2020. By demonizing the base, you bring more of his base to the voting booth. Trump says a lot of things, but to a ton of these voters he cares about them. Not illegals. Not bathrooms. Not SJW issue. Trump appealed to mainstream issues. Jobs. Taxes. That's it. If I'm a former factory worker who's job got yanked away and was a blue union guy who thinks illegals and China took my job and Democrats wanna raise my taxes-guess what- I'm voting Trump. If Democrats start pushing mainstream issues, they too can win. Healthcare, poverty, jobs. Push that. Get the rest on the way after victory. Yes the bathroom thing is important, but guys who are living in worse conditions than 10 years ago don't really give a crap about that issue.

@Johnez
Where I disagree is the idea that there's a huge wall to overcome if DJT is to be defeated in 2020. Remember, he won by the most narrowest of margins in 2016, and his win had as much to do with the lack of participation from people who had voted for Obama as it did from newfound support from traditional rust-belt democrats. He also was running against a candidate who carried more political baggage (justifiably or not) than any recent candidate. Given DJT's disapproval ratings and under-water support levels (both worse for DJT than they were during the 2016 campaign) he'd lose in a generic election if held today.

I cannot honestly look at the data that are out there and believe this because of one important detail: he'd have to lose to a specific candidate. And the minute you put up a specific candidate--Kamala Harris, or Elizabeth Warren, or Eric Holder--you have someone who can be slimed by right-wing media to mobilize their base. Every news cycle saddens and discourages me, and yet I cannot see an honest path for Trump to lose re-election in 2020. Nineteen presidents have won two terms so far: it truly is the sitting President's election to lose.

Broader point though is that DJT barely eeked out a win - loosing the popular vote and getting razor-thin margins in several 'battle-ground' states.
So the question I ask is whether he'd receive more support today than he did in Nov 2016.  Its very hard for me to see how that would happen. Demographics is less in his favor than 2016. The opposition has become even more resolute. Those rare 'independent' voters willing to bet the house on a 'tear-it-down' candidate strongly disapprove of the job he has done.
I concur that the moment a Dem candidate crystalizes the conservative media will go to town against him/her, but i) its hard for me to see how any candidate will be viewed more negatively by that segment than HRC, and ii) the voters those media reach are already 'baked in' to the support numebrs; they are largely GOP voters.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3136 on: July 24, 2018, 08:50:00 AM »
Trump got the same number of votes that McCain got, and that Romney got.  US elections are entirely won or lost based on democratic turnout.

Hillary lost because voter turnout was suppressed just enough on the left, not because the right actually liked Trump.  The more Trump makes an ass of himself on television, the more democrats will turn out for the next few elections.  I think Trump has assured his own doom by being too much in the public eye now that the election is over.  If he wanted to win again, he should have gone twitter silent the moment the election was over.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3137 on: July 24, 2018, 08:55:19 AM »
Trump got the same number of votes that McCain got, and that Romney got.  US elections are entirely won or lost based on democratic turnout.

Hillary lost because voter turnout was suppressed just enough on the left, not because the right actually liked Trump.  The more Trump makes an ass of himself on television, the more democrats will turn out for the next few elections.  I think Trump has assured his own doom by being too much in the public eye now that the election is over.  If he wanted to win again, he should have gone twitter silent the moment the election was over.

Maybe. (And recognize, I would like to believe you're right.) But I don't think that the Democratic establishment has learned its lesson from 2016. It seems to me that the center-left Democrats who control most of the decision making are fixin' to divide the left-leaning voters and try to suppress progressive candidates once again. Which will dampen participation by young people and POC. Just like always.

https://truthout.org/articles/corporate-democrats-plan-counterrevolution-in-the-midst-of-progressive-success/

(I also recognize the bias of this source, but I did check the sources for the article and the factual parts are legit.)

Add to that the voter suppression/intimidation tactics by the right, including the fact that they are trying to spark fear in the hearts of *legal* immigrants and other brown/black people with things like Trump's denaturalization effort, which will certainly keep at least some of them away from the polls, too... I dunno, man. Not feeling great.


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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3138 on: July 24, 2018, 09:23:47 AM »
Trump got the same number of votes that McCain got, and that Romney got.  US elections are entirely won or lost based on democratic turnout.

Hillary lost because voter turnout was suppressed just enough on the left, not because the right actually liked Trump.  The more Trump makes an ass of himself on television, the more democrats will turn out for the next few elections.  I think Trump has assured his own doom by being too much in the public eye now that the election is over.  If he wanted to win again, he should have gone twitter silent the moment the election was over.

Maybe. (And recognize, I would like to believe you're right.) But I don't think that the Democratic establishment has learned its lesson from 2016. It seems to me that the center-left Democrats who control most of the decision making are fixin' to divide the left-leaning voters and try to suppress progressive candidates once again. Which will dampen participation by young people and POC. Just like always.

https://truthout.org/articles/corporate-democrats-plan-counterrevolution-in-the-midst-of-progressive-success/

(I also recognize the bias of this source, but I did check the sources for the article and the factual parts are legit.)

Add to that the voter suppression/intimidation tactics by the right, including the fact that they are trying to spark fear in the hearts of *legal* immigrants and other brown/black people with things like Trump's denaturalization effort, which will certainly keep at least some of them away from the polls, too... I dunno, man. Not feeling great.

I think the progressive dems should take a page from the right-wing playbook and start labeling the corporate democrats DINOs (Democrats in Name Only).  This shift to the center since Clinton is not working out as a long-term strategy, it seems, and much of the change that will need to happen in the near future will be counter to corporate and oligarchical desires.  Better to start the split now and frame it proactively, vs. letting the GOP name stuff.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3139 on: July 24, 2018, 09:48:52 AM »
Trump got the same number of votes that McCain got, and that Romney got.  US elections are entirely won or lost based on democratic turnout.

Hillary lost because voter turnout was suppressed just enough on the left, not because the right actually liked Trump.  The more Trump makes an ass of himself on television, the more democrats will turn out for the next few elections.  I think Trump has assured his own doom by being too much in the public eye now that the election is over.  If he wanted to win again, he should have gone twitter silent the moment the election was over.

Maybe. (And recognize, I would like to believe you're right.) But I don't think that the Democratic establishment has learned its lesson from 2016. It seems to me that the center-left Democrats who control most of the decision making are fixin' to divide the left-leaning voters and try to suppress progressive candidates once again. Which will dampen participation by young people and POC. Just like always.

https://truthout.org/articles/corporate-democrats-plan-counterrevolution-in-the-midst-of-progressive-success/

(I also recognize the bias of this source, but I did check the sources for the article and the factual parts are legit.)

Add to that the voter suppression/intimidation tactics by the right, including the fact that they are trying to spark fear in the hearts of *legal* immigrants and other brown/black people with things like Trump's denaturalization effort, which will certainly keep at least some of them away from the polls, too... I dunno, man. Not feeling great.

I think the progressive dems should take a page from the right-wing playbook and start labeling the corporate democrats DINOs (Democrats in Name Only).  This shift to the center since Clinton is not working out as a long-term strategy, it seems, and much of the change that will need to happen in the near future will be counter to corporate and oligarchical desires.  Better to start the split now and frame it proactively, vs. letting the GOP name stuff.

Honestly, Trump is such a disaster that long term strategy is completely secondary to getting him out and having someone aligned with our democratic norms in office. This is one place that I agree with George Will and other Republicans who are encouraging people to vote blue for that specific purpose. This is an emergency, not a huddle in the first quarter of a long game.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3140 on: July 24, 2018, 09:51:19 AM »
I think the sad truth is, as long as the Democrats choose a white male Christian candidate, they've got it in the bag. Ideally someone with a background of very little controversy and young enough that the opposition has a tough time manufacturing past controversy. I hesitate to say they should campaign on outright lies, but vague truths about outcomes rather than any real policy are probably the way to go. Any concrete plans should wait until after the election to be discussed with the public. Oh, and they should go ahead and avoid any discussion of abortion whatsoever.

The one aspect that this leaves out is what we've been discussing about lack of turnout for the dems when enthusiasm is low. Personally, I think anti Trump enthusiasm has that covered.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3141 on: July 24, 2018, 09:57:33 AM »
Eh, he's hanging himself.

How many US corporations can he call un-American? Harley-Davidson isn't Apple -- it's part of the identity of many Trump supporters. Whirlpool is facing headwinds due to steel and aluminum tariffs and may be facing job cuts; washing machines have gone up substantially (20%) in price in one year. An American nail company (the last one?) is cutting jobs because of the same "national security" tariffs. Oil pipe companies in Texas are slowing down orders because of the expensive steel, which raises the cost of everyone that uses oil.

It's only a matter of time before prices start to increase for pickup trucks.

If the tariffs continue, the pain will be felt in Trump country first. Unless the Republicans grow a spine, those voters will vote with their pocketbooks again.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3142 on: July 24, 2018, 10:15:14 AM »
Eh, he's hanging himself.

How many US corporations can he call un-American? Harley-Davidson isn't Apple -- it's part of the identity of many Trump supporters. Whirlpool is facing headwinds due to steel and aluminum tariffs and may be facing job cuts; washing machines have gone up substantially (20%) in price in one year. An American nail company (the last one?) is cutting jobs because of the same "national security" tariffs. Oil pipe companies in Texas are slowing down orders because of the expensive steel, which raises the cost of everyone that uses oil.

It's only a matter of time before prices start to increase for pickup trucks.

If the tariffs continue, the pain will be felt in Trump country first. Unless the Republicans grow a spine, those voters will vote with their pocketbooks again.


Everything might get worse for them, but will that matter to Trump supporters?  They've been impervious to logic so far, and willing to accept blatant lies as truth.  I don't have high hopes that they'll recognize the truth of what's happening in their Fox news bubbles.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3143 on: July 24, 2018, 10:27:02 AM »
Eh, he's hanging himself.

How many US corporations can he call un-American? Harley-Davidson isn't Apple -- it's part of the identity of many Trump supporters. Whirlpool is facing headwinds due to steel and aluminum tariffs and may be facing job cuts; washing machines have gone up substantially (20%) in price in one year. An American nail company (the last one?) is cutting jobs because of the same "national security" tariffs. Oil pipe companies in Texas are slowing down orders because of the expensive steel, which raises the cost of everyone that uses oil.

It's only a matter of time before prices start to increase for pickup trucks.

If the tariffs continue, the pain will be felt in Trump country first. Unless the Republicans grow a spine, those voters will vote with their pocketbooks again.


Everything might get worse for them, but will that matter to Trump supporters?  They've been impervious to logic so far, and willing to accept blatant lies as truth.  I don't have high hopes that they'll recognize the truth of what's happening in their Fox news bubbles.

I'm guessing that the pocketbook is the main concern and that cultural wars are secondary. Now, Trump can lay blame on immigrants but when even the small-medium company owners are questioning the tariffs, there will be some trickle down to the employees.

Ultimately, though, it will be a campaign issue. Republicans creating fear and Democrats blaming the Republican tariffs for the economy.

The Ds are still +7 for the fall elections and more seats are coming into play. Children in cages doesn't play well, especially with women, and suburban women are essential to the R strategy. If small numbers of suburban women sit out this election (or in 2020), then the Rs are lost.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3144 on: July 24, 2018, 10:46:49 AM »
I'm guessing that the pocketbook is the main concern and that cultural wars are secondary.

I think you're living in fantasy land.  Rural poor white American voted to repeal their own health insurance.  They voted to raise their own taxes.  They voted to cut their own unemployment benefits, their jobs retraining programs, their access to abortion, and funding for their opioid addictions. 

The culture war is the only thing that matters to them, because the wealthy elite wing of the republican party has totally owned them.  Like all successful plutocrats throughout history, they retain their complete economic dominance by convincing the poor underclass to gleefully perpetuate their own oppression.  Counting on economic issues to turn the tide against trump is wishing on a falling star.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3145 on: July 24, 2018, 10:52:27 AM »
I think the sad truth is, as long as the Democrats choose a white male Christian candidate, they've got it in the bag. Ideally someone with a background of very little controversy and young enough that the opposition has a tough time manufacturing past controversy. I hesitate to say they should campaign on outright lies, but vague truths about outcomes rather than any real policy are probably the way to go. Any concrete plans should wait until after the election to be discussed with the public. Oh, and they should go ahead and avoid any discussion of abortion whatsoever.

Sorry, Trudeau isn't eligible.  And we wouldn't lend him to you if he were.   ;-)

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3146 on: July 24, 2018, 11:19:40 AM »
I'm guessing that the pocketbook is the main concern and that cultural wars are secondary.

I think you're living in fantasy land.  Rural poor white American voted to repeal their own health insurance.  They voted to raise their own taxes.  They voted to cut their own unemployment benefits, their jobs retraining programs, their access to abortion, and funding for their opioid addictions. 

The culture war is the only thing that matters to them, because the wealthy elite wing of the republican party has totally owned them.  Like all successful plutocrats throughout history, they retain their complete economic dominance by convincing the poor underclass to gleefully perpetuate their own oppression.  Counting on economic issues to turn the tide against trump is wishing on a falling star.

The pocketbook doesn't matter right now because the pocketbook doesn't matter. The economy is strong, the F150 is the most sold vehicle in America, and people have largely recovered from 2008. There's time to turn to other things, like worrying about BLM or gay marriage. When the economy falters, the party in charge takes the hit.

There will always be the ~25% who would vote for Trump for life or enforce Christian Taliban law, just as ~25% thought Nixon was ok with breaking into the Democratic office, but it's the moderate 25% Republicans that have more sense and can be swayed.

Or, yeah, I could be living in fantasy land. In which case, it's all about Democratic enthusiasm. The Rs are losing that battle, too, as we become more urban.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3147 on: July 24, 2018, 11:41:08 AM »
I'm guessing that the pocketbook is the main concern and that cultural wars are secondary.

I think you're living in fantasy land.  Rural poor white American voted to repeal their own health insurance.  They voted to raise their own taxes.  They voted to cut their own unemployment benefits, their jobs retraining programs, their access to abortion, and funding for their opioid addictions. 

The culture war is the only thing that matters to them, because the wealthy elite wing of the republican party has totally owned them.  Like all successful plutocrats throughout history, they retain their complete economic dominance by convincing the poor underclass to gleefully perpetuate their own oppression.  Counting on economic issues to turn the tide against trump is wishing on a falling star.

The pocketbook doesn't matter right now because the pocketbook doesn't matter. The economy is strong, the F150 is the most sold vehicle in America, and people have largely recovered from 2008. There's time to turn to other things, like worrying about BLM or gay marriage. When the economy falters, the party in charge takes the hit.

There will always be the ~25% who would vote for Trump for life or enforce Christian Taliban law, just as ~25% thought Nixon was ok with breaking into the Democratic office, but it's the moderate 25% Republicans that have more sense and can be swayed.

Or, yeah, I could be living in fantasy land. In which case, it's all about Democratic enthusiasm. The Rs are losing that battle, too, as we become more urban.

I have to say I'm with Sol on this one. I came of age during the seventies-eighties, and remember well the recession of 1979-81. The same people in my family who today voted for Trump were in the same economic situation then, and they were bitching about the exact same shit. They blamed the n*****s and the g**ks then, and today they're blaming the brown people, and Hillary, and I guess trans people wanting to go to the bathroom? They will never see that Trump's policies have hurt them. It will always be the fault of whoever Trump says it is. Because Trump makes them feel better, even as he's shafting them daily.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3148 on: July 24, 2018, 12:12:31 PM »
I'm guessing that the pocketbook is the main concern and that cultural wars are secondary.

I think you're living in fantasy land.  Rural poor white American voted to repeal their own health insurance.  They voted to raise their own taxes.  They voted to cut their own unemployment benefits, their jobs retraining programs, their access to abortion, and funding for their opioid addictions. 

The culture war is the only thing that matters to them, because the wealthy elite wing of the republican party has totally owned them.  Like all successful plutocrats throughout history, they retain their complete economic dominance by convincing the poor underclass to gleefully perpetuate their own oppression.  Counting on economic issues to turn the tide against trump is wishing on a falling star.

The pocketbook doesn't matter right now because the pocketbook doesn't matter. The economy is strong, the F150 is the most sold vehicle in America, and people have largely recovered from 2008. There's time to turn to other things, like worrying about BLM or gay marriage. When the economy falters, the party in charge takes the hit.

There will always be the ~25% who would vote for Trump for life or enforce Christian Taliban law, just as ~25% thought Nixon was ok with breaking into the Democratic office, but it's the moderate 25% Republicans that have more sense and can be swayed.

Or, yeah, I could be living in fantasy land. In which case, it's all about Democratic enthusiasm. The Rs are losing that battle, too, as we become more urban.

I have to say I'm with Sol on this one. I came of age during the seventies-eighties, and remember well the recession of 1979-81. The same people in my family who today voted for Trump were in the same economic situation then, and they were bitching about the exact same shit. They blamed the n*****s and the g**ks then, and today they're blaming the brown people, and Hillary, and I guess trans people wanting to go to the bathroom? They will never see that Trump's policies have hurt them. It will always be the fault of whoever Trump says it is. Because Trump makes them feel better, even as he's shafting them daily.

Not saying you're wrong, but elections aren't won by the vast masses of entrenched ideologues that you describe. They're won on the fringe, by the people who choose to stay home or those with weak political allegiances. If one person out of 100 had voted for Clinton instead of Trump, we'd have a different president right now. This is the difference between winning and losing in a national election. You'll never persuade the Fox News lemmings to abandon Trump, but you absolutely do not need them to defeat him.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3149 on: July 24, 2018, 12:26:57 PM »

Not saying you're wrong, but elections aren't won by the vast masses of entrenched ideologues that you describe. They're won on the fringe, by the people who choose to stay home or those with weak political allegiances. If one person out of 100 had voted for Clinton instead of Trump, we'd have a different president right now. This is the difference between winning and losing in a national election. You'll never persuade the Fox News lemmings to abandon Trump, but you absolutely do not need them to defeat him.

It's not even 1 out of 100 switching from DJT to HRC - it's getting just a fraction of the 5 million extra people who voted for Obama in 2008 compared to HRC in 2016.
Sol raised an interesting point; as a proportion of the total electorate, McCain (59MM) got as many votes as Romney (61MM) who got as many as Trump (62MM).
It's hard for me to see how more people would come out to vote for Trump in 2020 than 2016; the question to me is simply whether the Dem candidate can exceed HRC's vote total, even if only by 1 or 2%. More importantly, can teh Dems get 1% greater turnout in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (all lost by < 1%)?