Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 706583 times)

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7350 on: June 16, 2019, 05:16:47 PM »
It's not just about receiving money. 
It is illegal for any person to solicit, accept, or receive anything of value from a foreign national in connection with a U.S. election

now whether anything will be done about violations is another matter completely.  The defanging of the Federal Election Commission has resulted in a general inability to enforce violations.

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7351 on: June 17, 2019, 01:38:37 AM »
What if A wants B to win the presidency, holds many meetings with members of B's campaign, gives information to B about opponents, arranges for the release of documents that damage B's opponents, then starts a sophisticated (and expensive) campaign of misinformation on behalf of B involving a great many foreign intelligence agents?  And then B makes regular special concessions to A's country as a quid pro quo pay back?



B would argue that neither they nor anyone associated with their campaign  accepted any money directly  from A and that the "special concessions" were nothing more than B's exercise of  their constitutional power to conduct foreign policy.

Except that B has never been President while not also being a candidate, and releasing damaging information about opponents is necessarily about his role as candidate rather than his role upholding the constitution of the United States.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7352 on: June 17, 2019, 01:06:59 PM »
What if A wants B to win the presidency, holds many meetings with members of B's campaign, gives information to B about opponents, arranges for the release of documents that damage B's opponents, then starts a sophisticated (and expensive) campaign of misinformation on behalf of B involving a great many foreign intelligence agents?  And then B makes regular special concessions to A's country as a quid pro quo pay back?



B would argue that neither they nor anyone associated with their campaign  accepted any money directly  from A and that the "special concessions" were nothing more than B's exercise of  their constitutional power to conduct foreign policy.

Except that B has never been President while not also being a candidate, and releasing damaging information about opponents is necessarily about his role as candidate rather than his role upholding the constitution of the United States.

Yes, but it is against our Federal Election laws, and mirrors what is in the constitution. Doesn't matter whether he was elected or not, any CANDIDATE cannot accept aid from foreign nationals, money or anything of value. the initial and current reasoning you do not want candidates who will be beholden or acting on behalf of foreign interests.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7353 on: June 17, 2019, 01:22:18 PM »
Laws only matter when there is will to enforce them.  Is there any conceivable scenario at this point where anyone believes that the Republican party would hold Trump accountable for his actions?

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7354 on: June 17, 2019, 02:38:49 PM »
Is there any conceivable scenario at this point where anyone believes that the Republican party would hold Trump accountable for his actions?
I suspect a DJT loss in 2020, combined with more gains by the Dems in the legislature may cause a sea change where the GOP finally turns on Trump.  And why not?  In this scenario he's already become a looser, despite the power of incumbency.  The new Dem controlled WH and House (and possibly senate) will want to finally prosecute now that he's no longer in office, and what good would it do a Republican to defend him?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7355 on: June 19, 2019, 11:02:21 AM »
Well, apparently Trump has Made America Great Again - Trump EPA finalizes rollback of key Obama climate rule that targeted coal plants

Quote
The Trump administration finalized its biggest climate policy rollback Wednesday, requiring the U.S. power sector to cut its 2030 carbon emissions 35 percent over 2005 levels less than half of what experts calculate is needed to avert catastrophic warming of the planet.

The Affordable Clean Energy rule, issued by the Environmental Protection Agency, demands much smaller carbon dioxide reductions than the industry is already on track to achieve, even without federal regulation. As of last year, the U.S. power sector had cut its greenhouse gas emissions 27 percent compared with 2005.

So, depending on what you want to believe, either the Earth is already pretty much saved (just 8 percent reduction to go in the next 11 years, easy peasy) or we are definitely all going to die in a few generations, and are on track for declining quality of life sooner rather than later.  Guess we'll find out since we're not hedging out bets.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7356 on: June 19, 2019, 11:14:04 AM »
meanwhile, we have more record heat-waves across the southern US, and the top 5 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2014.  This year (2019) is on track to be in the top 3.

How much longer will the GOP be able to pretend there is nothing going on?

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7357 on: June 19, 2019, 11:49:49 AM »
meanwhile, we have more record heat-waves across the southern US, and the top 5 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2014.  This year (2019) is on track to be in the top 3.

How much longer will the GOP be able to pretend there is nothing going on?

Only the man who 'digs' coal knows for sure.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7358 on: June 19, 2019, 12:05:28 PM »
How much longer will the GOP be able to pretend there is nothing going on?

They can continue as long as their supporters keep buying the lies.  So . . . forever?

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7359 on: June 19, 2019, 01:29:26 PM »
How much longer will the GOP be able to pretend there is nothing going on?

They can continue as long as their supporters keep buying the lies.  So . . . forever?

Well... I mean... that's part of the irony.  The places where we've had the most extreme heat waves are in deeply red (GOP) states.  South Carolina.  Georgia. It hit 105F (40C) in Charleston SC in May... the first time this has happened in 135 years of measurements.  People are literally dying because it's too damn hot (and more people are dying sooner).   Entire school systems had to be let out early because the buildings' AC could not keep up with the heat, and it was deemed unsafe for the kids.  Virtually everyone in the southern US is paying more for electricity to cool their homes and businesses.

Eventually you'd think even the most entrenched GOP supporters might realize that climate change isn't just melting glaciers and displacing polar bears. 

Dabnasty

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7360 on: June 19, 2019, 02:03:28 PM »
How much longer will the GOP be able to pretend there is nothing going on?

They can continue as long as their supporters keep buying the lies.  So . . . forever?

Well... I mean... that's part of the irony.  The places where we've had the most extreme heat waves are in deeply red (GOP) states.  South Carolina.  Georgia. It hit 105F (40C) in Charleston SC in May... the first time this has happened in 135 years of measurements.  People are literally dying because it's too damn hot (and more people are dying sooner).   Entire school systems had to be let out early because the buildings' AC could not keep up with the heat, and it was deemed unsafe for the kids.  Virtually everyone in the southern US is paying more for electricity to cool their homes and businesses.

Eventually you'd think even the most entrenched GOP supporters might realize that climate change isn't just melting glaciers and displacing polar bears.

And yet businesses propping their doors open so that passersby get a blast of cool air is a regular thing in Charleston. I wonder how many people recognize/acknowledge the relationship.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7361 on: June 19, 2019, 02:05:30 PM »
How much longer will the GOP be able to pretend there is nothing going on?

They can continue as long as their supporters keep buying the lies.  So . . . forever?

Well... I mean... that's part of the irony.  The places where we've had the most extreme heat waves are in deeply red (GOP) states.  South Carolina.  Georgia. It hit 105F (40C) in Charleston SC in May... the first time this has happened in 135 years of measurements.  People are literally dying because it's too damn hot (and more people are dying sooner).   Entire school systems had to be let out early because the buildings' AC could not keep up with the heat, and it was deemed unsafe for the kids.  Virtually everyone in the southern US is paying more for electricity to cool their homes and businesses.

Eventually you'd think even the most entrenched GOP supporters might realize that climate change isn't just melting glaciers and displacing polar bears.

They've never voted in their best interests before, it doesn't make sense for them to start doing so now.  Climate change is a liberal plot to take perfectly normal coal rollin' trucks away from honest, hard working country folk.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7362 on: June 19, 2019, 02:08:04 PM »
Guitarstv is right. I watched a documentary on this island. The inhabitants have lived there for multiple generations, and the island is disappearing before their eyes. But they don't think man made climate change has anything to do with it. Plus, they have placed their faith in Trump to fix it, and Trump told them they don't have anything to worry about. 
 
I'm a scientist so I'm taught to look at everything critically, but it's not how most people think. Most people have their beliefs, and the more cherished the beliefs are, the more they are willing to twist the facts to fit their beliefs than adjust their beliefs in the face of new facts.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/09/climate-change-rising-seas-tangier-island-chesapeake-book-talk/
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 02:23:18 PM by partgypsy »

rocketpj

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7363 on: June 19, 2019, 04:32:17 PM »
Is there any conceivable scenario at this point where anyone believes that the Republican party would hold Trump accountable for his actions?
I suspect a DJT loss in 2020, combined with more gains by the Dems in the legislature may cause a sea change where the GOP finally turns on Trump.  And why not?  In this scenario he's already become a looser, despite the power of incumbency.  The new Dem controlled WH and House (and possibly senate) will want to finally prosecute now that he's no longer in office, and what good would it do a Republican to defend him?

I think you overestimate the will of the Dems.  If they win they will 'look forward not back' and the criminals will walk away.


bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7364 on: June 19, 2019, 05:04:43 PM »
Guitarstv is right. I watched a documentary on this island. The inhabitants have lived there for multiple generations, and the island is disappearing before their eyes. But they don't think man made climate change has anything to do with it. Plus, they have placed their faith in Trump to fix it, and Trump told them they don't have anything to worry about. 
 
I'm a scientist so I'm taught to look at everything critically, but it's not how most people think. Most people have their beliefs, and the more cherished the beliefs are, the more they are willing to twist the facts to fit their beliefs than adjust their beliefs in the face of new facts.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/09/climate-change-rising-seas-tangier-island-chesapeake-book-talk/

Wow. I knew about Isle de Jean Charles but hadn't heard of Tangier. It's sad thinking that the young children on Tangier probably won't die there. It'll be a postal stamp by the time they're 70.

Avery Island (aka Tabasco Island) is also losing its battle with the ocean.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/27/climate-change-louisiana-tabasco-avery-island

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7365 on: June 19, 2019, 08:33:58 PM »
Eventually you'd think even the most entrenched GOP supporters might realize that climate change isn't just melting glaciers and displacing polar bears. 
They may do so. But,

1. in the meantime, they still have to live and pay their bills, so they need jobs, and
2. Do the Dems offer a plan with a realistic prospect of avoiding the worst global warming, or is it just token measures to signal virtue?

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7366 on: June 19, 2019, 10:02:16 PM »
2. Do the Dems offer a plan with a realistic prospect of avoiding the worst global warming, or is it just token measures to signal virtue?

I think it's pretty shitty to argue that a party literally built around a climate change platform is just "virtue signaling".  The GOP has rolled back eight years of climate protection policies under the Trump administration, and they wouldn't bother with overturning empty symbolism.  They are doing real harm to our environment, because the Democrats did real good.

Get off your high horse, Kyle.  Then feel free to actually stand for something, instead of just criticising people trying to make the world a better place.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7367 on: June 20, 2019, 05:15:03 AM »

2. Do the Dems offer a plan with a realistic prospect of avoiding the worst global warming, or is it just token measures to signal virtue?
Yes, they do.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 07:37:13 AM by nereo »

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7368 on: June 20, 2019, 06:02:03 AM »
Eventually you'd think even the most entrenched GOP supporters might realize that climate change isn't just melting glaciers and displacing polar bears. 
They may do so. But,

1. in the meantime, they still have to live and pay their bills, so they need jobs, and
2. Do the Dems offer a plan with a realistic prospect of avoiding the worst global warming, or is it just token measures to signal virtue?

There are around 20 democratic candidates in the running. If you are interested you can go to their websites and see where they stand regarding climate change. And then you can look at the GOP candidate's platform for mitigating climate change. Oops I guess you can't the Trump website removed even the term "climate change" from the white house pages. http://columbiaclimatelaw.com/silencing-science-tracker/references-to-climate-change-removed-from-white-house-website/

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7369 on: June 20, 2019, 08:06:00 PM »
They are doing real harm to our environment, because the Democrats did real good.
The biggest impact on US emissions came with the recession, and after that - the weather. Electricity generation was the only area that's seen a decline in emissions.

The EPA says

"This decrease was largely driven by a decrease in emissions from fossil fuel combustion, which was a result of multiple factors including a continued shift from coal to natural gas and increased use of renewables in the electric power sector, and milder weather that contributed to less overall electricity use."

Not even Trump tries to take credit for the weather...



I'm not picking on the Dems or Reps, the major parties around Australia and so on are the same. The coal lobby is too strong, and people are too attached to flying, driving, and their 3,000 mile caesar salads. If actions speak louder than words, then almost all of us are climate change denialists - if we weren't, then there'd be no international climate change conferences. Flying to a climate change conference is like having slaves carry to you to an abolition conference. Our governments judge our wishes by our actions, not our words. And most of us are not acting, we just virtue signal by buying offsets and the like - so our governments follow.

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nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7371 on: June 21, 2019, 06:35:42 AM »
Kyle - you asked whether the Dems offered a plan with a realistic prospect of avoiding the worst global warming.  Several posters have responded that they do. 
The GOP has held some or all of the federal legislature  for all but two years since the 103rd was sworn in with Clinton's first term.

If you're looking at PAST accomplishments (not future plans, which is what you were talking about) the increases in fuel standards, changes in legislation to push for more renewables and limits on coal all occurred under Dem rule, and (towards the end of his presidency with a GOP held congress) via EO by Obama.
It's the GOP that's actively trying to cut fuel efficeincy standards, rollback coal standards, and refute scientific consensus on climate change. Under GOP control of the WH + Senate (e.g. now) emissions have increased, while emissions decreased under a Dem controlled WH + Senate.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7372 on: June 21, 2019, 07:13:17 AM »
Kyle - you asked whether the Dems offered a plan with a realistic prospect of avoiding the worst global warming.  Several posters have responded that they do. 
The GOP has held some or all of the federal legislature  for all but two years since the 103rd was sworn in with Clinton's first term.

If you're looking at PAST accomplishments (not future plans, which is what you were talking about) the increases in fuel standards, changes in legislation to push for more renewables and limits on coal all occurred under Dem rule, and (towards the end of his presidency with a GOP held congress) via EO by Obama.
It's the GOP that's actively trying to cut fuel efficeincy standards, rollback coal standards, and refute scientific consensus on climate change. Under GOP control of the WH + Senate (e.g. now) emissions have increased, while emissions decreased under a Dem controlled WH + Senate.

To be fair to Republicans, Nixon was the guy who implemented the EPA.  But that was back when conservatives saw the problems obvious in self regulation.  The amount of corporate money free speech that the current US system allows corporations and individuals to use to buy talk with politicians may have had something to do with this change.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7373 on: June 21, 2019, 07:28:51 AM »
2. Do the Dems offer a plan with a realistic prospect of avoiding the worst global warming, or is it just token measures to signal virtue?

Probably more token than substance.  What they'll say to get elected vs. what they'll actually accomplish if elected are two very different things.  Right now, it seems mostly a competition among democrat candidates offering different baskets of "free" stuff.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7374 on: June 21, 2019, 08:23:51 AM »
2. Do the Dems offer a plan with a realistic prospect of avoiding the worst global warming, or is it just token measures to signal virtue?

Probably more token than substance.  What they'll say to get elected vs. what they'll actually accomplish if elected are two very different things.  Right now, it seems mostly a competition among democrat candidates offering different baskets of "free" stuff.

We could argue about how much Dems would be able to accomplish if elected until the cows come home, and much of it (IMO) would depend on whether they had majorities and how many GOP types would attempt to stonewall by doing crap like not showing up so that no legislation can be passed or filibustering.  That's different than not having a plan.
We can also look at the things Dems have been able to enact (both at the Federal and state levels) when given those majorities, vs. legislation aimed at rolling back such policies.
 

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7375 on: June 21, 2019, 09:34:15 AM »
2. Do the Dems offer a plan with a realistic prospect of avoiding the worst global warming, or is it just token measures to signal virtue?

Probably more token than substance.  What they'll say to get elected vs. what they'll actually accomplish if elected are two very different things.  Right now, it seems mostly a competition among democrat candidates offering different baskets of "free" stuff.
With the notable exception of Jay Inslee.

If what we need to do is a 10, the GOP ranks a 1 in this administration and the Dems proposals (as a group) rank about a 5. Given that we have a diverse politic that has been intentionally misled about AGW for decades, it is now politically challenging to propose what actually needs to be done. I am not optimistic.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7376 on: June 21, 2019, 09:57:52 AM »
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions spiked by 3.4% in 2018

Has anyone looked at a correlation between GDP and GHG?

Seems like more growth means more emissions.

I don't think we see any real changes until the US and / or China sign up for binding short term (but achievable) targets.

Long term, non-binding pie in the sky agreements don't work. Because we kick everything down the road for some one else.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7377 on: June 21, 2019, 10:20:04 AM »
We've established "binding" agreements, but the problem there is even "binding" agreements can be undone by subsequent administrations.  That's what has happened for many of the regulations on power-plant emissions and fuel efficiency standards.  Both were reasonable mid-term (3-6 year) standards that would have done a great deal towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and had they been kept in place the US's contributiuon would slowly be declining rather than staying flat.  The fuel efficiency standards alone are estimated to reduce CO2 emissions by over 500MMT.

It's not enough, but it's measurable, and put us on the right path.  Now the current administration is attempting to rollback these and other steps.

People incorrectly conflate the Paris Climate Agreement - which set targets and an agreed upon framework but lacked enforceable standards - with a variety of legislation, incentives and penalties passed by a wide range of countries specifically designed to make progress on the framework agreed upon in Paris in 2016.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7378 on: June 21, 2019, 10:32:47 AM »
I can't help but see parallels between addressing climate change and emissions and retirement planning. If we had been collectively mature and responsible we would have made smaller changes starting 20 years ago and stuck with them to make steady progress. Instead we are the proverbial 57 year-old who hasn't come to terms with the fact that working until you drop is not a solid future plan, and that starting retirement savings is a good thing. The thing is, starting saving at 57 is like where we are at now: If you had started long ago the actions necessary wouldn't have been that drastic. Now, the longer we put off doing anything, the more and more drastic things are going to have to be. Either we will have to do the regulation equivalent of suddenly starting to save 50% or we're going to suffer the ugly consequences.

Unfortunately I have no faith that anything will divert us from path 2, and it will be our children suffering the brunt of the consequences for our inability to act like adults.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7379 on: June 21, 2019, 10:55:48 AM »
I can't help but see parallels between addressing climate change and emissions and retirement planning.

It's an interesting idea, ysette.  I can definitely see the similarities, in people choosing to live high on the hog today without thinking about the future.  Perhaps the reason we see such unusually strong support for climate-friendly policies among the mustachian community is that we are the type of people who DO like to plan for the future, even when it means making deliberate sacrifices in the present.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7380 on: June 21, 2019, 11:01:32 AM »
I can't help but see parallels between addressing climate change and emissions and retirement planning. If we had been collectively mature and responsible we would have made smaller changes starting 20 years ago and stuck with them to make steady progress. Instead we are the proverbial 57 year-old who hasn't come to terms with the fact that working until you drop is not a solid future plan, and that starting retirement savings is a good thing. The thing is, starting saving at 57 is like where we are at now: If you had started long ago the actions necessary wouldn't have been that drastic. Now, the longer we put off doing anything, the more and more drastic things are going to have to be. Either we will have to do the regulation equivalent of suddenly starting to save 50% or we're going to suffer the ugly consequences.

Unfortunately I have no faith that anything will divert us from path 2, and it will be our children suffering the brunt of the consequences for our inability to act like adults.

True, though I'd add that we are already suffering from our inability to make some sensible changes 20+ years ago when smaller changes could have had a big impact because of the longer timeframe, just as anything you invested in your 20s would have an oversized effect on your net worth when you were approaching 60 because of compounding.
 We are already experincing the impacts of more frequent and intense heat waves, the spread of 'pest' species into colder climates, degraded ecosystems and reduced biodiversity.... we are already paying for it financially, culturally and socially.

This narrative that climate change will be a burden only on our future generation needs to change - it will burden them, yes, but it is impacting us now.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7381 on: June 21, 2019, 11:12:27 AM »
I can't help but see parallels between addressing climate change and emissions and retirement planning. If we had been collectively mature and responsible we would have made smaller changes starting 20 years ago and stuck with them to make steady progress. Instead we are the proverbial 57 year-old who hasn't come to terms with the fact that working until you drop is not a solid future plan, and that starting retirement savings is a good thing. The thing is, starting saving at 57 is like where we are at now: If you had started long ago the actions necessary wouldn't have been that drastic. Now, the longer we put off doing anything, the more and more drastic things are going to have to be. Either we will have to do the regulation equivalent of suddenly starting to save 50% or we're going to suffer the ugly consequences.

Unfortunately I have no faith that anything will divert us from path 2, and it will be our children suffering the brunt of the consequences for our inability to act like adults.

True, though I'd add that we are already suffering from our inability to make some sensible changes 20+ years ago when smaller changes could have had a big impact because of the longer timeframe, just as anything you invested in your 20s would have an oversized effect on your net worth when you were approaching 60 because of compounding.
 We are already experincing the impacts of more frequent and intense heat waves, the spread of 'pest' species into colder climates, degraded ecosystems and reduced biodiversity.... we are already paying for it financially, culturally and socially.

This narrative that climate change will be a burden only on our future generation needs to change - it will burden them, yes, but it is impacting us now.

It's not impacting us enough to cause most people to care.  This leads to huge amounts of anger when you suggest that even tiny things (like driving a pickup truck as a daily commuter) are poor choices.  Climate change won't change minds and opinions until it's a catastrophic impact.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7382 on: June 21, 2019, 11:16:21 AM »

 We are already experincing the impacts of more frequent and intense heat waves, the spread of 'pest' species into colder climates

I've seen hideous  photographs of a Maine moose that was covered with 1000s and  1000s of ticks.

Why?

The winters there are warmer than  they used to be so the ticks survive the winter instead of dying off like they used to when it was colder.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7383 on: June 21, 2019, 11:25:39 AM »
It's not impacting us enough to cause most people to care.  This leads to huge amounts of anger when you suggest that even tiny things (like driving a pickup truck as a daily commuter) are poor choices.  Climate change won't change minds and opinions until it's a catastrophic impact.
Perhaps true to some extent, but I thikn the bigger issue is shifting baselines.  When eight of the ten worst heat waves on record have all occurred in the last decade you start thinking that's 'normal'.  Once a species leaves an area people quickly adjust to it not being around. Pests move into new regions and people quickly forget that they were never a problem until a few decades ago. And as things get worse those with means mitigate the direct effects with technology (e.g. air conditioning, imported food, air filters etc.). 

FIREstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7384 on: June 21, 2019, 02:43:34 PM »
I can't help but see parallels between addressing climate change and emissions and retirement planning. If we had been collectively mature and responsible we would have made smaller changes starting 20 years ago and stuck with them to make steady progress. Instead we are the proverbial 57 year-old who hasn't come to terms with the fact that working until you drop is not a solid future plan, and that starting retirement savings is a good thing. The thing is, starting saving at 57 is like where we are at now: If you had started long ago the actions necessary wouldn't have been that drastic. Now, the longer we put off doing anything, the more and more drastic things are going to have to be. Either we will have to do the regulation equivalent of suddenly starting to save 50% or we're going to suffer the ugly consequences.

Unfortunately I have no faith that anything will divert us from path 2, and it will be our children suffering the brunt of the consequences for our inability to act like adults.

Yeah, that's very true, just like the government can't manage their income (tax dollars), expenses (budget), and debt like a residential household of mustachians.  Past mistakes have led to massive debt, and there seems to be little motivation to cut into that.  Instead, it's all about more spending, borrowing, and printing dollars.

Anyway, it seems most people don't really care if they don't feel they or their kids are significantly affected.  Thank goodness I don't have kids to worry about.  Things look like they're going to get a lot worse in the future.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 02:45:08 PM by FIREstache »

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7385 on: June 21, 2019, 03:35:06 PM »
I can't help but see parallels between addressing climate change and emissions and retirement planning. If we had been collectively mature and responsible we would have made smaller changes starting 20 years ago and stuck with them to make steady progress. Instead we are the proverbial 57 year-old who hasn't come to terms with the fact that working until you drop is not a solid future plan, and that starting retirement savings is a good thing. The thing is, starting saving at 57 is like where we are at now: If you had started long ago the actions necessary wouldn't have been that drastic. Now, the longer we put off doing anything, the more and more drastic things are going to have to be. Either we will have to do the regulation equivalent of suddenly starting to save 50% or we're going to suffer the ugly consequences.

Unfortunately I have no faith that anything will divert us from path 2, and it will be our children suffering the brunt of the consequences for our inability to act like adults.

Yeah, that's very true, just like the government can't manage their income (tax dollars), expenses (budget), and debt like a residential household of mustachians.  Past mistakes have led to massive debt, and there seems to be little motivation to cut into that.  Instead, it's all about more spending, borrowing, and printing dollars.

Anyway, it seems most people don't really care if they don't feel they or their kids are significantly affected.  Thank goodness I don't have kids to worry about.  Things look like they're going to get a lot worse in the future.

Are you expecting to die soon?  Because unless you've passed your 60th birthday or are terminally ill, I think most of us will live to see things get much worse.  This is not some distant, 50+ years into the future kind of scenario (although unless we do many things 2069 will look even worse than 2039).

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7386 on: June 21, 2019, 06:00:44 PM »
I'm writing this from a Canadian perspective (and I'm also one of the over 60 crowd mentioned earlier), but what any government does re climate affects the whole planet, and the American contribution is big.

So, re climate change, too many things to quote . . .

Shifting baselines - kids growing up in the Sudbury region at the height of the Inco emissions thought it was normal to play in a moonscape.  As adults they have told me it seems odd to see the area as efforts are made to re-green it.

   - when I was a kid, ice storms were rare and amazing.  We had the odd mild ice storm over the years, but of course 1998 was the year we had three ice storms in 5 days and most of eastern Ontario and western Quebec, plus upper New York state, lost power for weeks.  I do mean weeks, we were out for 3 weeks and we had friends out for longer. We have had lots of ice storms since then, just not so close together and so devastating.  This winter was not super cold but we had ice storm after ice storm plus lots of snow.  Ice storms are the new normal.

Ticks - we always had dog ticks, along with mosquitoes, black flies, deer flies and horse flies.  Now we have deer ticks.  The incidence of Lyme disease has gone from  almost zero to hundreds, according to the Eastern Ontario Health Unit.  In Carp, west of Ottawa, over 50% of ticks tested are Lyme carriers. 

Seasons - springs are coming later and fall seems to be lasting longer.  I see farmers planting much later in the season than they did when I moved here 10  years ago, because of our colder wetter springs. This year with all the snow (especially in the Northern part of the drainage basin) we had heavy flooding along the Ottawa River. 2017 was considered a super bad flood year, this year was worse.

Summers are hotter - 30 used to be considered really hot here.  Now we can easily go over a week at a time in the mid-30s.  This may not seem that hot, but it also means really humid weather.

So, I am over 60, and I can say that the climate is definitely changing.  I talked with a meteorologist many years ago and he said that the second half of the 20th century was one of the most stable (and fairly benign) climate periods in centuries.  We got spoiled and complacent.

And since this is a politics thread, the Senate, with so many Conservatives appointed by Harper, has introduced over 200 amendments to Bill C-69 (our new Environmental Protection Bill) which basically gut it.  Harper's government had gutted our previous EPA, and this Liberal bill would have restored most (not all) of the parts that got gutted. I should point out for the Americans here that the old Progressive Conservative Party wasn't bad on environmental issues, in fact a PC government under Brian Mulroney* introduced the first Canadian EPA. But these Conservatives take their playbook from the American Republicans.

*For those of you old enough, it was PM Mulroney who did that famous duet with President Reagan of When Irish Eyes are Smiling ("Shamrock Summit", 1985).  Can you imagine  President Trump doing something like that? https://www.facebook.com/QonCBCRadio/videos/brian-mulroney-and-ronald-reagan-sing-when-irish-eyes-are-smiling/1802466916476089/


FIREstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7387 on: June 21, 2019, 07:45:41 PM »
I can't help but see parallels between addressing climate change and emissions and retirement planning. If we had been collectively mature and responsible we would have made smaller changes starting 20 years ago and stuck with them to make steady progress. Instead we are the proverbial 57 year-old who hasn't come to terms with the fact that working until you drop is not a solid future plan, and that starting retirement savings is a good thing. The thing is, starting saving at 57 is like where we are at now: If you had started long ago the actions necessary wouldn't have been that drastic. Now, the longer we put off doing anything, the more and more drastic things are going to have to be. Either we will have to do the regulation equivalent of suddenly starting to save 50% or we're going to suffer the ugly consequences.

Unfortunately I have no faith that anything will divert us from path 2, and it will be our children suffering the brunt of the consequences for our inability to act like adults.

Yeah, that's very true, just like the government can't manage their income (tax dollars), expenses (budget), and debt like a residential household of mustachians.  Past mistakes have led to massive debt, and there seems to be little motivation to cut into that.  Instead, it's all about more spending, borrowing, and printing dollars.

Anyway, it seems most people don't really care if they don't feel they or their kids are significantly affected.  Thank goodness I don't have kids to worry about.  Things look like they're going to get a lot worse in the future.

Are you expecting to die soon?  Because unless you've passed your 60th birthday or are terminally ill, I think most of us will live to see things get much worse.  This is not some distant, 50+ years into the future kind of scenario (although unless we do many things 2069 will look even worse than 2039).

I'm perplexed at your response.  I even went back to reread my previous post to see what you may have misinterpreted.  But I didn't make any comments about 50 years or "distant" future.  I simply said the future is going to get a lot worse.  And if the future keeps getting progressively worse, future generations will suffer the consequences even more than the current generation.  Despite that, it looks like large part of the country considers it low priority.  I believe only a little over half the people polled said the government should increase spending to protect the environment.

LennStar

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7388 on: June 22, 2019, 02:39:40 AM »
Yeah, that's very true, just like the government can't manage their income (tax dollars), expenses (budget), and debt like a residential household of mustachians.  Past mistakes have led to massive debt, and there seems to be little motivation to cut into that.  Instead, it's all about more spending, borrowing, and printing dollars.

If a state would be managed like a mustachian houshold, it would probably go bankcrupt in less than a decade.
Please, please, do not think that a state budget is similar to a household budget! Those are very different things!

That is also the reason why a "Green New Deal" could, like the old New Deal, be a big expensense that actually improves your bottom line. (Just to contribute to the topic lol.)


nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7389 on: June 22, 2019, 05:18:39 AM »

I'm perplexed at your response.  I even went back to reread my previous post to see what you may have misinterpreted.  But I didn't make any comments about 50 years or "distant" future.  I simply said the future is going to get a lot worse.  And if the future keeps getting progressively worse, future generations will suffer the consequences even more than the current generation.  Despite that, it looks like large part of the country considers it low priority.  I believe only a little over half the people polled said the government should increase spending to protect the environment.

I wasn't intending this to sound as harsh as it did, and while I quoted you I wasn't directly reacting to your words.  Sorry about that - bad day.  What I was responding to was the phrase "thank goodness I don't have kids".

My broader point is that we need to change this common narrative that climate change is something that will drastically impact the lives of our kids - of future generations - but not us.  That's not doing us any favors, as it allows us to ignore the impacts right in front of us and kick the proverbial can down the road a few more years, in the vague hope that these problems will just go away like magic.  And as long as people keep talking about climate change as something far away, both in geography (e.g. the arctic) or time (e.g. our children will suffer the impacts) we'll keep finding excuses to put it off a few more years.

FWIW I do have a daughter and my career has been focused on the impact of climate change on ocean foodwebs. These changes are in my face daily and few of them are good, and almost all of them are accelerating.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7390 on: June 22, 2019, 05:28:09 AM »
I say "Thank God I don't have kids" in front of people who have kids because I want them to think of the consequences of their actions and of the politicians they vote for.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7391 on: June 22, 2019, 05:43:31 AM »
I say "Thank God I don't have kids" in front of people who have kids because I want them to think of the consequences of their actions and of the politicians they vote for.

In 50 years' time perhaps there will be self-help groups for people whose grandparents were climate change deniers:  "My name is [X ] and Mitch McConnell was my grandfather".

LennStar

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7392 on: June 22, 2019, 10:26:37 AM »
I think in 50 years people will have more pressing matters...

On climate change and the Republican's understanding of Democracy:
https://boingboing.net/2019/06/22/son-of-malheur.html
Quote
In a bid to avoid climate vote, Oregon Republican Senators cross state lines, go into hiding, threaten to murder cops, as white nationalist paramilitaries pledge armed support

Oregon's legislature is about to vote on a piece of climate change cap-and-trade legislation that the Democratic majority are likely to win, so to avoid the vote, 12 Oregon state senators have gone into hiding, thus depriving the senate of the necessary quorum.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7393 on: June 22, 2019, 11:41:03 AM »
I say "Thank God I don't have kids" in front of people who have kids because I want them to think of the consequences of their actions and of the politicians they vote for.

In 50 years' time perhaps there will be self-help groups for people whose grandparents were climate change deniers:  "My name is [X ] and Mitch McConnell was my grandfather".

This is overly optimistic.  Given history, I'd expect them to have great pride in their climate change denying grandfathers.  Look at the number of people in the southern states who think that flying a confederate flag is appropriate.  We'll hear about how it wasn't really about denying climate change, but protecting people from ridiculous liberal ideas that would have tanked the economy.  I predict that there will be Mitch McConnell bumper stickers on the empty shells of F150s being pulled around by horses after all the gas runs out . . . trucks that will have a large supply of kindling in the back so that they can quickly stop, light it on fire, and 'roll coal' on anyone they see on a bicycle.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7394 on: June 22, 2019, 11:46:33 AM »

On climate change and the Republican's understanding of Democracy:
https://boingboing.net/2019/06/22/son-of-malheur.html


US States are in an interesting position. On one hand a handful of State governments are pushing ahead with better environmental policies (e.g. California) - sometimes pulling the rest of the country along.  On the other hand, their lack of sovereignty can make many state policies ineffective, particularly when neighboring states allow said action.  From an effectiveness standpoint, changes in federal policy have the broadest impact, but politically any federal mandate can cause a great deal of backlash.  It's this kind of backlash that has push entire constituents (e.g. farmers) into the Republican fold in recent decades, when historically they have been under the Democrat's tent.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7395 on: June 22, 2019, 11:47:57 AM »
No worries.  Trump seems to be pushing farmers away as hard as he can lately with his great and easy to win trade wars.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7396 on: June 22, 2019, 12:04:01 PM »
No worries.  Trump seems to be pushing farmers away as hard as he can lately with his great and easy to win trade wars.

That may be, but the ones that are getting disillusioned with Trump are turning away for the same reason that they left the Democrats to begin with: they are deeply resentful when federal policies impact their livelihood. Many may not want to support Trump int he next election, but they aren't going to line up behind someone who pushes more top-down (i.e federal) control on things. 

In the end there's a significant swath of the US that will only support (or at least accept) changes if it comes from the local level, and to do that the connection needs to be made that there is a current and local cost to not acting. We can't keep making it about polar bears and modeled impacts on our grandchildren. 

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7397 on: June 22, 2019, 12:35:37 PM »
No worries.  Trump seems to be pushing farmers away as hard as he can lately with his great and easy to win trade wars.

That may be, but the ones that are getting disillusioned with Trump are turning away for the same reason that they left the Democrats to begin with: they are deeply resentful when federal policies impact their livelihood. Many may not want to support Trump int he next election, but they aren't going to line up behind someone who pushes more top-down (i.e federal) control on things. 

In the end there's a significant swath of the US that will only support (or at least accept) changes if it comes from the local level, and to do that the connection needs to be made that there is a current and local cost to not acting. We can't keep making it about polar bears and modeled impacts on our grandchildren.

There's a significant percentage of the population who will fail to support any change that impacts their life in even the most minuscule way until climate change is well past the point where we have any ability to minimize the worst impacts.  It doesn't matter what you make it about.  This group of people will not act until we're all doomed, and they hold just about enough sway to doom the rest of us with them.  They've been winning via inaction since the whole thing began.

Tom Bri

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7398 on: June 22, 2019, 09:24:23 PM »

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7399 on: June 22, 2019, 10:38:06 PM »
Emissions declining since 2007.

Why would you say that?