Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 809766 times)

FIREstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7250 on: June 02, 2019, 09:27:04 PM »
Since he has pissed off almost everyone...WHO is voting for him?

I just saw on Meet the Press this morning that Trump has a 90% approval rating from republicans.

Also, the economy is doing very well with very low unemployment.  As long as these trade deals and trariffs don't derail things, that will be very difficult for the democrats to overcome.  So, they need to hope the economy goes to shit before the election.  There's still plenty of time for that to happen.

marty998

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7251 on: June 03, 2019, 02:06:41 AM »
Since he has pissed off almost everyone...WHO is voting for him?

I just saw on Meet the Press this morning that Trump has a 90% approval rating from republicans.

Also, the economy is doing very well with very low unemployment.  As long as these trade deals and trariffs don't derail things, that will be very difficult for the democrats to overcome.  So, they need to hope the economy goes to shit before the election.  There's still plenty of time for that to happen.

I need to begrudgingly agree with this. Your Democrats can and need to learn a lot of lessons from the Australian Labor Party which lost an election that was a lay down misere* last month.

It's the economy, stupid. If people have jobs, and they aren't being taxed as much as the other side is going to tax them, then they're going to vote for the devil they know.

And no amount of telling people that they are wrong or stupid for voting Republican is going to change their mind.

Quote
*'lay down misere' is Australian gambling slang for a predicted easy victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misère
« Last Edit: June 03, 2019, 02:08:35 AM by marty998 »

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7252 on: June 03, 2019, 06:17:16 AM »
Since he has pissed off almost everyone...WHO is voting for him?

I just saw on Meet the Press this morning that Trump has a 90% approval rating from republicans.

Also, the economy is doing very well with very low unemployment.  As long as these trade deals and trariffs don't derail things, that will be very difficult for the democrats to overcome.  So, they need to hope the economy goes to shit before the election.  There's still plenty of time for that to happen.

I don't hope it goes to shit but I don't think it's as great as what you see on the surface. Granted most folks don't really dig too deep past what's told to them on the boob tube. Signs are ominous.These stupid tariffs are causing farmer bailouts, falling stock market, and possible auto bailouts. Fed is predicting growth to slow as tax cuts fade away.  Unemployment is low however, remember when unemployment was low under Obama and Republicans kept pointing out labor participation rate?? Yeah it's still about the same. What else is happening? Oh yeah auto loan delinquencies are at a record high. I guess loosening those lending standards was a bad ideal? It's like we didn't learn from the past. Oh and so are credit card delinquencies. Wages are gaining at a decent rate but not nearly as fast as the inequality gap. Speaking of inequality and labor participation rates, how's the opioid epidemic?

I guess I just don't see the wonderful great economy everyone is talking about. I see an artificially inflated economy propped up by loose lending standards and unnecessary tax cuts. There are definitely cracks in the seems. Like a duck on the pond.   

Sugaree

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7253 on: June 03, 2019, 06:28:13 AM »
Since he has pissed off almost everyone...WHO is voting for him?

I just saw on Meet the Press this morning that Trump has a 90% approval rating from republicans.

Also, the economy is doing very well with very low unemployment.  As long as these trade deals and trariffs don't derail things, that will be very difficult for the democrats to overcome.  So, they need to hope the economy goes to shit before the election.  There's still plenty of time for that to happen.

I don't hope it goes to shit but I don't think it's as great as what you see on the surface. Granted most folks don't really dig too deep past what's told to them on the boob tube. Signs are ominous.These stupid tariffs are causing farmer bailouts, falling stock market, and possible auto bailouts. Fed is predicting growth to slow as tax cuts fade away.  Unemployment is low however, remember when unemployment was low under Obama and Republicans kept pointing out labor participation rate?? Yeah it's still about the same. What else is happening? Oh yeah auto loan delinquencies are at a record high. I guess loosening those lending standards was a bad ideal? It's like we didn't learn from the past. Oh and so are credit card delinquencies. Wages are gaining at a decent rate but not nearly as fast as the inequality gap. Speaking of inequality and labor participation rates, how's the opioid epidemic?

I guess I just don't see the wonderful great economy everyone is talking about. I see an artificially inflated economy propped up by loose lending standards and unnecessary tax cuts. There are definitely cracks in the seems. Like a duck on the pond.

I see it too.  The car thing is especially worrisome.  The car is usually the last thing people let go.

I won't go as far as to say that I hope the economy goes to shit, but I wouldn't mind a nice stock sale at this point in my investing life.  I was coming through a divorce/going back to school/working low wages during the 2008 sale.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7254 on: June 03, 2019, 06:49:34 AM »

It's the economy, stupid. If people have jobs, and they aren't being taxed as much as the other side is going to tax them, then they're going to vote for the devil they know.

And no amount of telling people that they are wrong or stupid for voting Republican is going to change their mind.

While I agree that telling people they are wrong and stupid will do little to change their mind, I think repeating "it's the economy, stupid" is the lazy pundits approach. Despite one of the best economies ever, DJT's struggled to rise above the 40% approval rating, and more his disapproval rating has remained north of 50% for over two years.  No other president has had the majority of Americans disapprove for as long and win election.  Reagan had a net unfavorable rating for a few weeks, but that was during a big recession. 
One could correctly say that DJT remains historically unpopular despite a roaring economy and what may soon become the longest economic expansion in US history*.

I don't look at factoids like "DJT has the support of 90% of GOP voters" and think that's a strong bulwark for him, as about 60% of the country is not republican. Not coincidentally, that's how you get approval ratings in the upper 30%s... you get 90% support from your party 95% disapproval from everyone else.

Ultimately what matters will be turnout.  The GOP, with their older and more affluent voter base unquestionably has higher voter turnout in election after election.  The question becomes 'will it be enough to overcome the broader (and deeper) negative opinions on this administration?'.

*give credit where credit's due; the majority of this expansion occurred under Obama, following the 'great recession'.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7255 on: June 03, 2019, 07:47:46 AM »
Since he has pissed off almost everyone...WHO is voting for him?

I just saw on Meet the Press this morning that Trump has a 90% approval rating from republicans.

Also, the economy is doing very well with very low unemployment.  As long as these trade deals and trariffs don't derail things, that will be very difficult for the democrats to overcome.  So, they need to hope the economy goes to shit before the election.  There's still plenty of time for that to happen.

I need to begrudgingly agree with this. Your Democrats can and need to learn a lot of lessons from the Australian Labor Party which lost an election that was a lay down misere* last month.

It's the economy, stupid. If people have jobs, and they aren't being taxed as much as the other side is going to tax them, then they're going to vote for the devil they know.

And no amount of telling people that they are wrong or stupid for voting Republican is going to change their mind.

Quote
*'lay down misere' is Australian gambling slang for a predicted easy victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misère

I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7256 on: June 03, 2019, 08:00:51 AM »
Since he has pissed off almost everyone...WHO is voting for him?

I just saw on Meet the Press this morning that Trump has a 90% approval rating from republicans.

Also, the economy is doing very well with very low unemployment.  As long as these trade deals and trariffs don't derail things, that will be very difficult for the democrats to overcome.  So, they need to hope the economy goes to shit before the election.  There's still plenty of time for that to happen.

I need to begrudgingly agree with this. Your Democrats can and need to learn a lot of lessons from the Australian Labor Party which lost an election that was a lay down misere* last month.

It's the economy, stupid. If people have jobs, and they aren't being taxed as much as the other side is going to tax them, then they're going to vote for the devil they know.

And no amount of telling people that they are wrong or stupid for voting Republican is going to change their mind.

Quote
*'lay down misere' is Australian gambling slang for a predicted easy victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misère

I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

Probably.

Of course, if they were required to give an accurate definition of what socialism actually is before voting, the vast majority of them wouldn’t be allowed to vote.

Samuel

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7257 on: June 03, 2019, 08:14:31 AM »
I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

That depends quite a bit on who he's running against. Democrats in my local liberal bubble don't seem to understand that Trump is probably a stronger candidate than he was 3 years ago. They seem to think they can nominate anyone and they'll be able to beat him. Scares me, to be honest. 

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7258 on: June 03, 2019, 08:23:45 AM »
Since he has pissed off almost everyone...WHO is voting for him?

I just saw on Meet the Press this morning that Trump has a 90% approval rating from republicans.

Also, the economy is doing very well with very low unemployment.  As long as these trade deals and trariffs don't derail things, that will be very difficult for the democrats to overcome.  So, they need to hope the economy goes to shit before the election.  There's still plenty of time for that to happen.

I need to begrudgingly agree with this. Your Democrats can and need to learn a lot of lessons from the Australian Labor Party which lost an election that was a lay down misere* last month.

It's the economy, stupid. If people have jobs, and they aren't being taxed as much as the other side is going to tax them, then they're going to vote for the devil they know.

And no amount of telling people that they are wrong or stupid for voting Republican is going to change their mind.

Quote
*'lay down misere' is Australian gambling slang for a predicted easy victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misère

I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

Probably.

Of course, if they were required to give an accurate definition of what socialism actually is before voting, the vast majority of them wouldn’t be allowed to vote.

Haha this reminded me of the time when a far right Trump supporting family member accused me of being a socialist. When I asked them what that actually meant, they had no clue. Something about handouts for everyone. I will point out said family member had drained 4 wives of all their money to support an ongoing gambling habit and was living off the government for some "alleged" disability. The hypocrisy was mind boggling.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7259 on: June 03, 2019, 08:25:16 AM »
Indeed being an incumbent is a powerful advantage.

There are also a lot of people who voted Obama in 2012 and voted Trump in 2016. I listened to John Favreaux's podcast The Wilderness, and he specifically sought out voters in this category, and couldn't find one who would support Trump again in 2020.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7260 on: June 03, 2019, 09:17:19 AM »
Indeed being an incumbent is a powerful advantage.

There are also a lot of people who voted Obama in 2012 and voted Trump in 2016. I listened to John Favreaux's podcast The Wilderness, and he specifically sought out voters in this category, and couldn't find one who would support Trump again in 2020.

Yea, I don't think Trump is a stronger candidate now than in 2016.  I'm also not sure that he would win the 2016 election again today, given that he technically got fewer votes than Clinton last time and only eked out an electoral college win due to a few voter distribution anomalies in the upper midwest.

In 2016 Trump ran as a shake-em-up wildcard candidate, and lots of people I know who thought he was a slimy human being were at least willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on being a competent executive, based on a carefully crafted reality tv persona.  Since then he has proven anything but competent, and all of those folks are no longer supporters.  The "let's give him a chance" crowd has become woefully disillusioned.

There was also an even larger contingent of people in my personal circle of acquaintances who failed to vote at all in 2016.  They weren't necessarily Trump supporters, but they totally bought into the "Clinton is a secret crime-boss pedo traitor with Alzheimer's" narrative pushed by Russia.  And a few thousand of those people staying home is what gave Trump the electoral college in the first place.  Let's not forget that the 2016 election was lost by democrats failing to turn out for Clinton, not won by republicans turning out for Trump.  Trump got the same number of votes as McCain and Romney got in the preceding two elections, and they both lost.  Trump won the presidency without converting a single voter to his side, solely by suppressing democratic turnout.

Get Out the Vote, people.

Omy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7261 on: June 03, 2019, 09:20:57 AM »
This ^.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7262 on: June 03, 2019, 09:51:57 AM »
millennials and Gen Xers form a larger share of the electorate than the Boomers & Silent generation.  Millennials alone almost match the Boomers now.  In 2016 voters over 60 came out in almost the exact same porportions as they did in the previous four elections, whereas the 18-29 and 30-44 crowd numbers dropped substantially.   Perhaps unsurprisingly it was the over 60 crowd that supported DJT, while those under 44 broke significantly ofr HRC

So from a macro-voting perspective, if Gen X and the Millennials vote in numbers similar to what Obama saw his first election it's hard to see how DJT can win re-election. I'm certain a core strategy of the WH will be to discourage these voters as much as possible, including spreading all sorts of conspiracy theories about whomever wins the Dem primary. 

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7263 on: June 03, 2019, 02:36:23 PM »
Since he has pissed off almost everyone...WHO is voting for him?

I just saw on Meet the Press this morning that Trump has a 90% approval rating from republicans.

Also, the economy is doing very well with very low unemployment.  As long as these trade deals and trariffs don't derail things, that will be very difficult for the democrats to overcome.  So, they need to hope the economy goes to shit before the election.  There's still plenty of time for that to happen.

I don't hope it goes to shit but I don't think it's as great as what you see on the surface. Granted most folks don't really dig too deep past what's told to them on the boob tube. Signs are ominous.These stupid tariffs are causing farmer bailouts, falling stock market, and possible auto bailouts. Fed is predicting growth to slow as tax cuts fade away.  Unemployment is low however, remember when unemployment was low under Obama and Republicans kept pointing out labor participation rate?? Yeah it's still about the same. What else is happening? Oh yeah auto loan delinquencies are at a record high. I guess loosening those lending standards was a bad ideal? It's like we didn't learn from the past. Oh and so are credit card delinquencies. Wages are gaining at a decent rate but not nearly as fast as the inequality gap. Speaking of inequality and labor participation rates, how's the opioid epidemic?

I guess I just don't see the wonderful great economy everyone is talking about. I see an artificially inflated economy propped up by loose lending standards and unnecessary tax cuts. There are definitely cracks in the seems. Like a duck on the pond.

I see it too.  The car thing is especially worrisome.  The car is usually the last thing people let go.

I won't go as far as to say that I hope the economy goes to shit, but I wouldn't mind a nice stock sale at this point in my investing life.  I was coming through a divorce/going back to school/working low wages during the 2008 sale.

I have said this before, if the economic crash is what it takes to get someone else in the WH, so be it. Hopefully it does not need to go to s*** before everyone realize that he is bad for everyone.

I can not believe reading about USS John McCain over the weekend. I guess he is still hurt not being invited into McCain memorial service smh

FIREstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7264 on: June 03, 2019, 04:03:26 PM »
Since he has pissed off almost everyone...WHO is voting for him?

I just saw on Meet the Press this morning that Trump has a 90% approval rating from republicans.

Also, the economy is doing very well with very low unemployment.  As long as these trade deals and trariffs don't derail things, that will be very difficult for the democrats to overcome.  So, they need to hope the economy goes to shit before the election.  There's still plenty of time for that to happen.

I need to begrudgingly agree with this. Your Democrats can and need to learn a lot of lessons from the Australian Labor Party which lost an election that was a lay down misere* last month.

It's the economy, stupid. If people have jobs, and they aren't being taxed as much as the other side is going to tax them, then they're going to vote for the devil they know.

And no amount of telling people that they are wrong or stupid for voting Republican is going to change their mind.

Quote
*'lay down misere' is Australian gambling slang for a predicted easy victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misère

And I don't think the economy necessarily has to go to "total" shit, but if things are at least headed south nearing election time, Trump could lose if the democrats nominate a decent candidate this time.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7265 on: June 03, 2019, 04:26:25 PM »
I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

That depends quite a bit on who he's running against. Democrats in my local liberal bubble don't seem to understand that Trump is probably a stronger candidate than he was 3 years ago. They seem to think they can nominate anyone and they'll be able to beat him. Scares me, to be honest.

Most importantly, they need to care enough to show up and vote, and get everyone they know to do the same.

Adam Zapple

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7266 on: June 03, 2019, 04:54:15 PM »
I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

That depends quite a bit on who he's running against. Democrats in my local liberal bubble don't seem to understand that Trump is probably a stronger candidate than he was 3 years ago. They seem to think they can nominate anyone and they'll be able to beat him. Scares me, to be honest.

Most importantly, they need to care enough to show up and vote, and get everyone they know to do the same.

Dems don't have a viable candidate that will make millennials care enough to turn out and vote.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7267 on: June 03, 2019, 05:05:29 PM »
I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

That depends quite a bit on who he's running against. Democrats in my local liberal bubble don't seem to understand that Trump is probably a stronger candidate than he was 3 years ago. They seem to think they can nominate anyone and they'll be able to beat him. Scares me, to be honest.

Most importantly, they need to care enough to show up and vote, and get everyone they know to do the same.

Dems don't have a viable candidate that will make millennials care enough to turn out and vote.

Why do you say that?

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7268 on: June 03, 2019, 05:19:40 PM »
I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

That depends quite a bit on who he's running against. Democrats in my local liberal bubble don't seem to understand that Trump is probably a stronger candidate than he was 3 years ago. They seem to think they can nominate anyone and they'll be able to beat him. Scares me, to be honest.

Most importantly, they need to care enough to show up and vote, and get everyone they know to do the same.

Dems don't have a viable candidate that will make millennials care enough to turn out and vote.

Why do you say that?
I see a whole bunch of candidates that Millennials would turn out for, though some would threaten to not garner as much enthusiasm of the established centrists.

FIREstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7269 on: June 03, 2019, 05:56:28 PM »
I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

That depends quite a bit on who he's running against. Democrats in my local liberal bubble don't seem to understand that Trump is probably a stronger candidate than he was 3 years ago. They seem to think they can nominate anyone and they'll be able to beat him. Scares me, to be honest.

Most importantly, they need to care enough to show up and vote, and get everyone they know to do the same.

Dems don't have a viable candidate that will make millennials care enough to turn out and vote.

There's one old white guy carrying around some baggage and used to be VP that has a chance if these dill-wads get out and vote.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7270 on: June 03, 2019, 06:11:09 PM »
Excuse my English but frankly a turd on a stick is a more viable presidential candidate than Trump. I'm honestly surprised that RNC is not figuring out a way to get him to step down. I've heard people who are Republican call him pretty insulting names. Heck, he's been called  "moron" "dope" "13 year old", #alertthedaycarestaff (a preschooler) a "hack". And that's just people in his own administration. If the reports are true, there are people in the White house who actively work to try to prevent him from f-ing up more than he already has, by not following out orders, hiding paperwork so he forgets about stuff, etc. Trump has the interesting effect, it appears the more you personally know and interact with him, the lower your opinion of him is.

https://www.bustle.com/p/all-of-trumps-republican-aides-allies-who-have-insulted-him-5548378
« Last Edit: June 03, 2019, 06:18:44 PM by partgypsy »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7271 on: June 03, 2019, 11:13:01 PM »
Excuse my English but frankly a turd on a stick is a more viable presidential candidate than Trump. I'm honestly surprised that RNC is not figuring out a way to get him to step down. I've heard people who are Republican call him pretty insulting names. Heck, he's been called  "moron" "dope" "13 year old", #alertthedaycarestaff (a preschooler) a "hack". And that's just people in his own administration. If the reports are true, there are people in the White house who actively work to try to prevent him from f-ing up more than he already has, by not following out orders, hiding paperwork so he forgets about stuff, etc. Trump has the interesting effect, it appears the more you personally know and interact with him, the lower your opinion of him is.

https://www.bustle.com/p/all-of-trumps-republican-aides-allies-who-have-insulted-him-5548378
See also, the recent axios, interview with Kushner.

Adam Zapple

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7272 on: June 04, 2019, 05:37:24 AM »
Excuse my English but frankly a turd on a stick is a more viable presidential candidate than Trump. I'm honestly surprised that RNC is not figuring out a way to get him to step down. I've heard people who are Republican call him pretty insulting names. Heck, he's been called  "moron" "dope" "13 year old", #alertthedaycarestaff (a preschooler) a "hack". And that's just people in his own administration. If the reports are true, there are people in the White house who actively work to try to prevent him from f-ing up more than he already has, by not following out orders, hiding paperwork so he forgets about stuff, etc. Trump has the interesting effect, it appears the more you personally know and interact with him, the lower your opinion of him is.

https://www.bustle.com/p/all-of-trumps-republican-aides-allies-who-have-insulted-him-5548378

I don't doubt what you are saying but he has a base that will dig in their heels.  What the country as a whole thinks means nothing.  Who is going to flip the battleground states?  Nobody that I see. 
I actually think there are a lot of people who will just keep quiet, then show up on election day and vote for Trump because socialism.

That depends quite a bit on who he's running against. Democrats in my local liberal bubble don't seem to understand that Trump is probably a stronger candidate than he was 3 years ago. They seem to think they can nominate anyone and they'll be able to beat him. Scares me, to be honest.

Most importantly, they need to care enough to show up and vote, and get everyone they know to do the same.

Dems don't have a viable candidate that will make millennials care enough to turn out and vote.

There's one old white guy carrying around some baggage and used to be VP that has a chance if these dill-wads get out and vote.

Biden looks like he could stroke out any day now.  Trump will wipe the floor with him in a debate based on visuals alone.  He is just a nicer version of Trump in my opinion... creepy and gropey, sure to embarrass the country, just in a less aggressive way.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7273 on: June 04, 2019, 06:49:54 AM »

I don't doubt what you are saying but he has a base that will dig in their heels.  What the country as a whole thinks means nothing.  Who is going to flip the battleground states?  Nobody that I see. 

[/quote]
Trump's base is woefully insufficient to win re-election, even with the electoral college the way that it is. He also needs to suppress turnout from the solid majority of Americans who strongly disapprove of him, or find a way to reach win back the approval to levels near (and likely slightly above) what he had in November 2016.

Given than opinions of him have been solidly entrenched for 2+ years, I don't think the latter is very likely.  Which means his strategy will rely upon minimizing voter turnout, likely by making the entire election as repugnant as possible.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7274 on: June 04, 2019, 06:56:59 AM »
I am a registered Republican. Every primary campaign is basically a pissing contest for all the candidates to say they were the first to support Trump in 2016 and--once they get to Washington--they will walk in lockstep with him this time. I wish I were exaggerating. It is impossible for a #nevertrump person to win a primary in any red district.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7275 on: June 04, 2019, 07:15:22 AM »
I am a registered Republican. Every primary campaign is basically a pissing contest for all the candidates to say they were the first to support Trump in 2016 and--once they get to Washington--they will walk in lockstep with him this time. I wish I were exaggerating. It is impossible for a #nevertrump person to win a primary in any red district.

That's because Trump represents everything that the modern Republican party likes and wants to be.  It's why his polling with Republicans is so high.  Why would you vote against the very identity of the party?

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7276 on: June 04, 2019, 08:34:35 AM »
Suppose for a minute that the Republican party of 2014 was a coalition of the following:

  • Pro-business or pro-energy conservatives
  • Evangelical Christians
  • Libertarians
  • Rural people, incl. Gun Rights advocates
  • Pat Buchanan-type paleo conservatives
  • Foreign Policy neocons

Every one of these groups has gotten something significant and valuable from the Trump Presidency. The only group who may see wanting it to end in 2021 as desirable are the Libertarians who--in my opinion--got the least valuable thing (the Criminal Justice reform of Dec. 2018), while probably paying the highest cost (a President and administration who openly flout any meaningful ethical standard, a guarantee of no meaningful progress on criminal justice reform). Perhaps the Foreign policy neocons--think of Senator Lindsey Graham as a leader of this group--are angry over the obsequiousness to autocrats, but they're also getting things they like in the Mid-East (defeat of IS, support of Israel), and replacing Mattis with Bolton was a win for them.


nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7277 on: June 04, 2019, 09:05:44 AM »
I've decided that I'll through my full support behind any candidate that publicly runs on a platform which includes strengthening congressional and judicial oversight on the executive branch, including his or her own administration.  This could come in many forms, including (but not limited to) acute limitations on what can be claimed as 'executive privilege', repeal of the executive's branch use of tariffs under 'national security' grounds (i.e. the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, more restrictions on filling positions on an interim basis (i.e. without congressional approval), tighter restrictions on EOs, greater verifiable transparency etc.

I'm not holding my breath, but should a candidate come out with comprehensive policies limiting their own potential future power I'd give him or her my vote in the primaries.

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7278 on: June 04, 2019, 09:35:14 AM »

I'm not holding my breath, but should a candidate come out with comprehensive policies limiting their own potential future power I'd give him or her my vote in the primaries.


Even if it were Trump stating those policies?

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7279 on: June 04, 2019, 09:36:23 AM »
Suppose for a minute that the Republican party of 2014 was a coalition of the following:

  • Pro-business or pro-energy conservatives
  • Evangelical Christians
  • Libertarians
  • Rural people, incl. Gun Rights advocates
  • Pat Buchanan-type paleo conservatives
  • Foreign Policy neocons

Every one of these groups has gotten something significant and valuable from the Trump Presidency. The only group who may see wanting it to end in 2021 as desirable are the Libertarians who--in my opinion--got the least valuable thing (the Criminal Justice reform of Dec. 2018), while probably paying the highest cost (a President and administration who openly flout any meaningful ethical standard, a guarantee of no meaningful progress on criminal justice reform). Perhaps the Foreign policy neocons--think of Senator Lindsey Graham as a leader of this group--are angry over the obsequiousness to autocrats, but they're also getting things they like in the Mid-East (defeat of IS, support of Israel), and replacing Mattis with Bolton was a win for them.

The Republicans who will want to see the end of Trump are the ones who actually care about the rule of law, ethics, and the stability of our nation and its place in the world.

I don't think that's a very big group, at this point.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7280 on: June 04, 2019, 10:23:14 AM »

I'm not holding my breath, but should a candidate come out with comprehensive policies limiting their own potential future power I'd give him or her my vote in the primaries.


Even if it were Trump stating those policies?

Trump is a proven pathological liar.  Why would anyone believe what he says?

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7281 on: June 04, 2019, 11:11:49 AM »

I'm not holding my breath, but should a candidate come out with comprehensive policies limiting their own potential future power I'd give him or her my vote in the primaries.


Even if it were Trump stating those policies?
Trump is a proven pathological liar.  Why would anyone believe what he says?

Well it would be interesting to be sure.  Pelosi would jump at the chance to make him prove his words, limiting his own powers.  As it is, he's running in the opposite direction, claiming exuctive privelige for just about everything, and refusing to cooperate with congressional subpoenas.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7282 on: June 04, 2019, 11:32:02 AM »

I'm not holding my breath, but should a candidate come out with comprehensive policies limiting their own potential future power I'd give him or her my vote in the primaries.


Even if it were Trump stating those policies?


hahaha. Good one. This is the guy who praises dictators for how they treat their people and their enemies.

Trump referring to China's Xi, “He’s now president for life. President for life. No, he’s great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot some day.”

https://hillreporter.com/times-donald-trump-praised-dictators-and-controversial-leaders-31009
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 11:36:16 AM by partgypsy »

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7283 on: June 04, 2019, 11:36:31 AM »
Well it would be interesting to be sure.  Pelosi would jump at the chance to make him prove his words, limiting his own powers.  As it is, he's running in the opposite direction, claiming exuctive privelige for just about everything, and refusing to cooperate with congressional subpoenas.

A District Judge just agreed with him about moving around appropriations for the border "emergency." Unfortunately, with the Senate GOP silent on the power grab, there won't be a change to the National Emergency Declaration act.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7284 on: June 04, 2019, 11:55:54 AM »
Technically the federal judge didn't agree with the Executive branch about that, just decided that the plaintiffs didn't have standing in the issue. The plaintiffs being House Representatives, which is ridiculous. I read somewhere that the issue may have been the plaintiffs being narrowed to just a few members, and that maybe if it was widened to the whole House, then the Judicial branch would have to acknowledge that the House surely has standing regarding issue of federal government spending by the Executive branch.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7285 on: June 04, 2019, 02:32:31 PM »
Back to a little more climate disaster news, https://www.ogj.com/articles/2019/06/permian-gas-flaring-venting-reaches-record-high.html?cmpid=&utm_source=enl&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ogj_daily_update&utm_content=2019-06-04&eid=288229876&bid=2459203



Basically, in order to sell the valuable liquid hydrocarbons, operators are burning and venting the equivalent volume of natural gas that would meet or exceed some countries' annual demand.  Just burning or releasing it in to the atmosphere.  Turns my stomach that we cheer when business is deregulated and increase profits at the expense of wasting resources and polluting.  We have to start fining these companies and taxing carbon emissions to put this to an end.  It's like a slow, preventable Exxon Valdez happening and the responsible companies are rewarded for keeping the profits flowing since they don't have to clean up. 




GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7286 on: June 04, 2019, 02:48:14 PM »
Three cheers for self-regulated industry.  Hip hip cough cough cough cough . . .

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7287 on: June 04, 2019, 05:19:20 PM »
Back to a little more climate disaster news, https://www.ogj.com/articles/2019/06/permian-gas-flaring-venting-reaches-record-high.html?cmpid=&utm_source=enl&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ogj_daily_update&utm_content=2019-06-04&eid=288229876&bid=2459203


This should upset all  mustachians, regardless of political orientation, it is so WASTEFUL!!!!!  And bad for the environment, of course.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7288 on: June 04, 2019, 05:59:50 PM »
What? The climate is doing fine. The 600% precipitation  increase in southern Texas is perfectly normally 😁

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7289 on: June 04, 2019, 06:16:07 PM »
Technically the federal judge didn't agree with the Executive branch about that, just decided that the plaintiffs didn't have standing in the issue. The plaintiffs being House Representatives, which is ridiculous. I read somewhere that the issue may have been the plaintiffs being narrowed to just a few members, and that maybe if it was widened to the whole House, then the Judicial branch would have to acknowledge that the House surely has standing regarding issue of federal government spending by the Executive branch.

Under the Political Question Doctrine (Justiciability Doctrine)   courts will refuse to adjudicate interbranch conflicts when Congress or the executive branch can adequately deal with them  by exercising their constitutionally established  powers.

Relying on the Political Question Doctrine, the district court decided that Congress lacked standing.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 06:40:09 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

doggyfizzle

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7290 on: June 06, 2019, 06:33:44 PM »
Back to a little more climate disaster news, https://www.ogj.com/articles/2019/06/permian-gas-flaring-venting-reaches-record-high.html?cmpid=&utm_source=enl&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ogj_daily_update&utm_content=2019-06-04&eid=288229876&bid=2459203



Basically, in order to sell the valuable liquid hydrocarbons, operators are burning and venting the equivalent volume of natural gas that would meet or exceed some countries' annual demand.  Just burning or releasing it in to the atmosphere.  Turns my stomach that we cheer when business is deregulated and increase profits at the expense of wasting resources and polluting.  We have to start fining these companies and taxing carbon emissions to put this to an end.  It's like a slow, preventable Exxon Valdez happening and the responsible companies are rewarded for keeping the profits flowing since they don't have to clean up. 



The flaring problem in the Permian is going to get worse before it gets better.  There is so little incentive to build NG pipelines within the Permian right now due to ultra low current spot NG prices.  Waha Hub spot prices are starting to commonly quote negative due to the excess supply in the region.  This should diminish once Kinder Morgan is able to complete a pipeline linking southern Texas and Northern Mexico natural gas infrastructure.

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7291 on: June 07, 2019, 11:34:25 AM »
Been reading about Mexico tariffs. I hope we do not go into recession... but maybe that is what it takes to ensure he will not get a second term.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7292 on: June 07, 2019, 11:56:54 AM »
Been reading about Mexico tariffs. I hope we do not go into recession... but maybe that is what it takes to ensure he will not get a second term.

It'll be interesting to see how far his base will bend. From what I've read, the midwest farmers are critical of the tariffs and subsidies but still support Trump. (Unfortunately, he may have fucked them over for many years, even after the soy tariffs are lifted).

Will the autoworkers in the South still support him even as they lose overtime hours? Or when they go to buy a new pickup in December and it's gone up by 5-10%?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2018/07/05/heres-how-much-trump-tariffs-could-boost-prices-on-the-top-selling-models-in-the-u-s/

I expect the May jobs report to be revised downward next month and we'll actually see a small job loss.

LennStar

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7293 on: June 07, 2019, 02:35:49 PM »
hahaha. Good one. This is the guy who praises dictators for how they treat their people and their enemies.

Trump referring to China's Xi, “He’s now president for life. President for life. No, he’s great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot some day.”

https://hillreporter.com/times-donald-trump-praised-dictators-and-controversial-leaders-31009
If your nmeasure is "how to achieve your personal goal", than Xi was tremendously successful.
I cannot stress how much The West stil underestimates China and Xi. Read about his past.


Quote
Three cheers for self-regulated industry.
Anyone knows of an example where a promise of an industry to self regulate, that they weren't going to do anyway, did actually happen?

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7294 on: June 07, 2019, 03:11:54 PM »
Anyone knows of an example where a promise of an industry to self regulate, that they weren't going to do anyway, did actually happen?

Not off hand, but I do know of several cases where industries promised to self-regulate as a way of staving off government intervention in their horribly corrupt business practices, and then did fuck-all for a few decades while they continued business-as-usual profiteering.

"Self regulation" just means "let us do whatever we want."  It's a crock of shit and everyone knows it.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7295 on: June 07, 2019, 03:13:20 PM »
Three cheers for self-regulated industry.
Anyone knows of an example where a promise of an industry to self regulate, that they weren't going to do anyway, did actually happen?

It works in LibertarianFantasyLand.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7296 on: June 07, 2019, 04:48:04 PM »
Three cheers for self-regulated industry.
Anyone knows of an example where a promise of an industry to self regulate, that they weren't going to do anyway, did actually happen?

It works in LibertarianFantasyLand.

It's almost like you can subtract 100 years from the current date and see this failed economic system that is gaining favor!

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7297 on: June 07, 2019, 08:05:38 PM »
So I'm sitting back, another Friday night, and now this https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/07/trump-says-agreement-reached-mexico-over-migrants/1368485001/

Quote
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump said Friday he will not put tariffs on Mexico after all, saying it has agreed to take new measures to stop the illegal flow of migrants into the United States

At this point, I'm thinking Trump was full of crap.  But why is he wasting my time?  This was a week when important things could have been taking place but instead the world was making war rooms to deal with his nonsense - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-07/ceo-war-games-hedging-against-the-chaos-of-a-full-on-trade-war

Quote
The company now has a "virtual war room" of about 150 employees mapping out the impact of various U.S. trade policy scenarios, according to a person familiar with its strategic planning. About 50 of them, mostly supply chain and logistics experts, are based in North America. The great unknown: Will Washington’s rapid policy shifts on trade end in 2020, or carry on for another four years if Trump is re-elected?

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7298 on: June 07, 2019, 10:36:31 PM »
The agreement sounds like BS, with a lot of platitudes and vague declarations, but it's good that the tariffs didn't come to pass.

Omy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7299 on: June 08, 2019, 06:39:40 AM »
Trump starts a fire...then tweets about how brilliantly he put out the fire. I really need to start timing the market to take advantage of this nonstop nonsense.