Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 622188 times)

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6800 on: April 05, 2019, 03:29:40 PM »
Small point here -- but didn't the release of tax returns start with Tricky Dick?

I didn't mean to suggest that my bro George Washington released his tax returns, only that it's become a normal part of running for our highest office in cases where there is obvious potential for undisclosed criminal activity.  I will amend my post.

As of today's news, Trump has decided to fight this "all the way to the Supreme Court."  That seems silly.  Congress explicitly has the authority to request any US citizen's tax returns, for exactly this purpose (identifying criminal tax fraud).  I don't see how he intends to fight it.  It's the law.

He's making the argument that it would set a bad precedent, but it's been precedent for years and years.  He said "What's to stop republicans from requesting Nancy Pelsoi's tax returns?" and the answer is absolutely nothing.  If Congress votes to see them, they get to see them, and if Pelosi is guilty of tax fraud then she should also be punished accordingly. 

I'm just confused by his whole approach.  Presumably the Mueller team has already seen his tax returns as part of their investigation, and determined that his bank loans from Russians don't constitute undue foreign influence, so what does he have to worry about?  So why fight it?  He doesn't have the power to change the existing law.  Maybe he's hoping to convince Mitch McConnell to propose legislation to make it illegal for Congress to request tax returns?  I'm not even sure how that would work, without the democrats in the House agreeing to it.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2019, 03:46:58 PM by sol »

Midwest

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1326
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6801 on: April 05, 2019, 03:44:10 PM »
It might also prove that he's not really a billionaire.

How? Does US tax returns show assets? You could have lots and lots of investments that don`t pay dividends, and have no capital gains, and nobody would see it on the tax returns right?

You could probably derive 90% of a person's wealth from their tax return. For us individuals We have 70% of our wealth in our house and retirement accounts which likely wouldn't show. But Trump would have RMD's, RE depreciation, and Business profit/loss that would more or less give you a likely net worth figure.

How exactly would you do this? 

You will not be able to derive his wealth from his personal tax return.  Presumably most of his operations are in entities that may or may not pass net income/loss through to him personally.  If they are C-Corps and he receives no current year income, there will be no trace on his personal tax return. 

Even if the entities are pass-through's, you will get a few lines summarizing the activity of the entities as it relates to Trump. 

To get any sense of his net worth, you would need a lot more than his personal tax return.

I get that people want to see his personal returns, but most won't even know what they are looking at and they certainly won't be able to divine his net worth from his personal returns.

FWIW - I suspect his NW is overstated by a huge factor. He's the Kardashian president. 

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10051
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6802 on: April 05, 2019, 04:06:35 PM »

I get that people want to see his personal returns, but most won't even know what they are looking at and they certainly won't be able to divine his net worth from his personal returns.

I have no intention of reviewing his or any other presidents' tax records, but I believe it is a convention that should be codified into law.  It isn't the average joe (who can't even do his/her own taxes without a tax-prep software or accountant), but tax specialists and forensic accountants who review those documents, and those people seem to agree that you can learn a great deal about a persons' finances - including COI and fraud - by examining his or her tax records.  It's so well accepted that its common practice for CEOs of fortune 500 companies and board members to provide such documents.

Effective government need transparency, and this seems like the bare minimum as transparency goes for our highest elected office.

Midwest

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1326
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6803 on: April 05, 2019, 04:14:21 PM »

I get that people want to see his personal returns, but most won't even know what they are looking at and they certainly won't be able to divine his net worth from his personal returns.

I have no intention of reviewing his or any other presidents' tax records, but I believe it is a convention that should be codified into law.  It isn't the average joe (who can't even do his/her own taxes without a tax-prep software or accountant), but tax specialists and forensic accountants who review those documents, and those people seem to agree that you can learn a great deal about a persons' finances - including COI and fraud - by examining his or her tax records.  It's so well accepted that its common practice for CEOs of fortune 500 companies and board members to provide such documents.

Effective government need transparency, and this seems like the bare minimum as transparency goes for our highest elected office.

Nereo -

I'm not saying he should or shouldn't release the doc's, but some of the claims being made regarding what you will or won't learn are fanciful at best.  Please understand, I have a a financial background so my comments on what will and won't be there are a lot less speculative than most.

I'm reading a the NYT expose on Trump and his father.  If and when, I get time, I
 may have some comments on their conclusions. 
« Last Edit: April 05, 2019, 05:11:09 PM by Midwest »

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2066
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6804 on: April 06, 2019, 01:47:42 PM »
Like everything in politics, the public will rely on the experts to look through the details and give us an accurate representation of what is important.  If they distort the truth, they will be called out with plenty of examples and opinion pieces.  Unfortunately, we have a President that likes to interject his own 'alternative facts' into everything.  In the case of taxes, as with the full Mueller Report, the documents should be released to allow the public to arrive at a consensus on what the facts are, as opposed to relying on the President and his inner circle to tell us what the facts are. 

Similar to the whole Access Hollywood tape incident, the public will likely cringe and move on, but I still would prefer full disclosure to being kept in the dark and fed lines of BS like 'no-one is smart enough to understand these magical tax documents'.

Glenstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2110
  • Location: Seattle!
  • Target FI date 2027 (maybe?)
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6805 on: April 08, 2019, 12:34:18 PM »
Based on the reported firings in the Trump administration, I'd day things are about to get a bunch worse at the border. The secret service during is interesting given that they are under Treasury and also investigate things like financial fraud.

Fomerly known as something

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 724
  • Location: Midwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6806 on: April 08, 2019, 01:21:56 PM »
Nope the Secret Service is under the Department of Homeland Security.

JLee

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5394
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6807 on: April 08, 2019, 02:04:50 PM »
Nope the Secret Service is under the Department of Homeland Security.

Yep, as of 2003. Their initial purpose was to combat counterfeit money, hence Treasury previously.

ncornilsen

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 862
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6808 on: April 08, 2019, 02:29:46 PM »
Small point here -- but didn't the release of tax returns start with Tricky Dick?

I didn't mean to suggest that my bro George Washington released his tax returns, only that it's become a normal part of running for our highest office in cases where there is obvious potential for undisclosed criminal activity.  I will amend my post.

As of today's news, Trump has decided to fight this "all the way to the Supreme Court."  That seems silly.  Congress explicitly has the authority to request any US citizen's tax returns, for exactly this purpose (identifying criminal tax fraud).  I don't see how he intends to fight it.  It's the law.

He's making the argument that it would set a bad precedent, but it's been precedent for years and years.  He said "What's to stop republicans from requesting Nancy Pelsoi's tax returns?" and the answer is absolutely nothing.  If Congress votes to see them, they get to see them, and if Pelosi is guilty of tax fraud then she should also be punished accordingly. 

I'm just confused by his whole approach.  Presumably the Mueller team has already seen his tax returns as part of their investigation, and determined that his bank loans from Russians don't constitute undue foreign influence, so what does he have to worry about?  So why fight it?  He doesn't have the power to change the existing law.  Maybe he's hoping to convince Mitch McConnell to propose legislation to make it illegal for Congress to request tax returns?  I'm not even sure how that would work, without the democrats in the House agreeing to it.

Seems pretty obvious to me what his game is here...  bait the democrats into ever more loud, shrill, angry demands for the tax returns, let them pose all kinds of speculation about how bad they are... then when he's forced to release them anyway, they'll finding nothing and less that they can hang him with. He then gets to use it as more evidence of how he's being which hunted.

Poundwise

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1392
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6809 on: April 09, 2019, 07:36:50 AM »
Here's an interest (and long) article regarding the legality of one of the bills under discussion.

https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=12632&context=journal_articles

One point not brought up is what kinds of irregularities or fraud may be revealed in his taxes that might not be found by the IRS.  The taxes will be intensely scrutinized by investigative journalists and Trump's former business partners, associates, and employees. There's a reason why he's not popular in his home state.  I personally have met a guy who said Trump stiffed him for some huge amount, I think he said $30K, for custom leatherwork dating back a decade or so.
 
Trump's a guy who likes to live on the edge, heck past the edge of legality. The way he filled out his taxes may reflect this attitude.  Of course he may have hired competent accountants, but he's also shown himself capable of overruling cautious advisors if they can't make things happen the way he wants.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13082
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6810 on: April 09, 2019, 07:56:33 AM »
Here's an interest (and long) article regarding the legality of one of the bills under discussion.

https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=12632&context=journal_articles

One point not brought up is what kinds of irregularities or fraud may be revealed in his taxes that might not be found by the IRS.  The taxes will be intensely scrutinized by investigative journalists and Trump's former business partners, associates, and employees. There's a reason why he's not popular in his home state.  I personally have met a guy who said Trump stiffed him for some huge amount, I think he said $30K, for custom leatherwork dating back a decade or so.
 
Trump's a guy who likes to live on the edge, heck past the edge of legality. The way he filled out his taxes may reflect this attitude.  Of course he may have hired competent accountants, but he's also shown himself capable of overruling cautious advisors if they can't make things happen the way he wants.

Trump has already revealed the traits he looks for in an accountant.  It doesn't appear to be skill based:

“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6811 on: April 09, 2019, 08:31:59 AM »
“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”

You shush!  Trump already told us he's the least racist person in the world.  Stop using his own words against him.

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9246
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6812 on: April 09, 2019, 02:54:23 PM »
“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”

You shush!  Trump already told us he's the least racist person in the world.  Stop using his own words against him.
Note that even the Washington Post says that is "at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism'."

JLee

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5394
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6813 on: April 09, 2019, 03:54:12 PM »
“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”

You shush!  Trump already told us he's the least racist person in the world.  Stop using his own words against him.
Note that even the Washington Post says that is "at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism'."

If only there existed other evidence of his racism...

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9246
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6814 on: April 09, 2019, 04:23:34 PM »
“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”

You shush!  Trump already told us he's the least racist person in the world.  Stop using his own words against him.
Note that even the Washington Post says that is "at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism'."

If only there existed other evidence of his racism...
There are plenty of well-documented and verified things Trump has said and done that may be legitimate targets for criticism.  A particularly crude, but of dubious authenticity, quote falls short of being "corroborating evidence."

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2066
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6815 on: April 09, 2019, 08:47:43 PM »
But what is really funny is that Trump is so quick to turn around and call other people racist.  From his Royal Twitter:  “What’s completely unacceptable is for Congesswoman Omar to target Jews, in this case Stephen Miller.” Jeff Ballabon, B2 Strategic, CEO.  @Varneyco

I didn't even know that Stephen Miller was Jewish, not that it matters, but this whole fantasy of Democrats in congress being anti-Semitic seems to be the strawman he wants to direct the arrows aimed at him toward.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6816 on: April 09, 2019, 09:14:00 PM »
But what is really funny is that Trump is so quick to turn around and call other people racist. 

This has always been his game, so don't be surprised.  He always uses his own flaws to attack his opponents.

Remember when he accused Hillary of not having the stamina to be president?  That was because he's the oldest president ever, and he knew his age and general bad health would be a strike against him.

Remember when he accused the Clinton's of having shady dealings in Russia?  Something about a paid speech, but meanwhile his entire real estate business was being funded by Russians.

Remember when he attacked Clinton has being soft on the military?  That was because he's a draft dodger.

I could go on, it's not a hard list to make. 

Also, just to be fair to Congresswoman Omar, you can totally make fun of Steve Miller because he is Steve Miller, regardless of whether or not he's Jewish.  He's not exempt from accountability for his terrible ideas just because he's a Jew.  I don't make fun of Hitler for being a vegetarian, and Hitler is not above ridicule for everything else by virtue of being a vegetarian, and vegetarians generally don't defend Hitler, because being Hitler and being a vegetarian are not related even in the instance where they share 100% overlap.

LennStar

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1268
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6817 on: April 09, 2019, 11:24:25 PM »
Also, just to be fair to Congresswoman Omar, you can totally make fun of Steve Miller because he is Steve Miller, regardless of whether or not he's Jewish.  He's not exempt from accountability for his terrible ideas just because he's a Jew.  I don't make fun of Hitler for being a vegetarian, and Hitler is not above ridicule for everything else by virtue of being a vegetarian, and vegetarians generally don't defend Hitler, because being Hitler and being a vegetarian are not related even in the instance where they share 100% overlap.
Fun fact: Hitler was not vegetarian, he simply had a bad stomach and seldom (but sometimes) eat meat.

Roadrunner53

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2168
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6818 on: April 10, 2019, 06:41:12 AM »
Now Trump is saying Obama is the one that separated the children from their families, NOT HIM, and caged the children, NOT HIM. OMG, how can he say this? He repeated himself a hundred times trying to drill this into people's heads...

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3947
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6819 on: April 10, 2019, 06:58:06 AM »
Now Trump is saying Obama is the one that separated the children from their families, NOT HIM, and caged the children, NOT HIM. OMG, how can he say this? He repeated himself a hundred times trying to drill this into people's heads...

He can say that because his base believes everything he says, and only listen to media that reinforces his lies.

And the GOP is too cowardly to primary him.

Basically, the only ones who care about his lies — the real media, non-brainwashed Republicans, everyone else who isn’t part of the cult  — don’t matter, because he still has a lock on the GOP vote in 2020.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 08:19:07 AM by Kris »

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2308
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6820 on: April 10, 2019, 08:03:12 AM »
Is it already so late that we're clear there won't be a GOP primary challenger?

Flake said he wouldn't do it, and it's clear that Ted Cruz and Nikki Haley won't, but there's still Kasich. And Maryland governor Larry Hogan?

Here's some stuff about these guys: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/20/larry-hogan-primary-challenge-trump-1176316

Note that the Hogan quote is specifically about the Mueller investigation, so perhaps GOP is closing ranks around the Barr handling of that instead?

But it doesn't seem extreme to think that someone could build a winning coalition out of "I like the judges, but the family separation thing is going too far"?

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3947
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6821 on: April 10, 2019, 08:20:36 AM »
Is it already so late that we're clear there won't be a GOP primary challenger?

Flake said he wouldn't do it, and it's clear that Ted Cruz and Nikki Haley won't, but there's still Kasich. And Maryland governor Larry Hogan?

Here's some stuff about these guys: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/20/larry-hogan-primary-challenge-trump-1176316

Note that the Hogan quote is specifically about the Mueller investigation, so perhaps GOP is closing ranks around the Barr handling of that instead?

But it doesn't seem extreme to think that someone could build a winning coalition out of "I like the judges, but the family separation thing is going too far"?

The GOP will never stand for his being primaried. His support among Republicans is in the upper 80s percentile. Anyone who would try will not get a lick of support from the party. They’ll be dead in the water.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 08:22:40 AM by Kris »

OtherJen

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1261
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6822 on: April 10, 2019, 08:26:15 AM »
Is it already so late that we're clear there won't be a GOP primary challenger?

Flake said he wouldn't do it, and it's clear that Ted Cruz and Nikki Haley won't, but there's still Kasich. And Maryland governor Larry Hogan?

Here's some stuff about these guys: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/20/larry-hogan-primary-challenge-trump-1176316

Note that the Hogan quote is specifically about the Mueller investigation, so perhaps GOP is closing ranks around the Barr handling of that instead?

But it doesn't seem extreme to think that someone could build a winning coalition out of "I like the judges, but the family separation thing is going too far"?

I wish. I may not agree with all of Kasich's politics, but he seems like a reasonable adult and decent human (I thought the same about John McCain, who didn't officially lose my vote in 2008 until he chose Palin as his running mate). I have enough other problems with the GOP that my conscience would not currently allow me to vote for their candidate, but this would be a major step in the right direction. I hope the rank and file of the GOP agree. Unfortunately, Trump's tax policies have likely yielded large benefits to his biggest donors. They're not going to bite the hand that feeds them.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13082
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6823 on: April 10, 2019, 08:32:27 AM »
“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”

You shush!  Trump already told us he's the least racist person in the world.  Stop using his own words against him.

Note that even the Washington Post says that is "at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism'."

If only there existed other evidence of his racism...

There are plenty of well-documented and verified things Trump has said and done that may be legitimate targets for criticism.  A particularly crude, but of dubious authenticity, quote falls short of being "corroborating evidence."

Even if Donald Trump says that they're probably true in an interview?  Or are we supposed to assume that Trump is not reliable as a source due to his history of lying?

Roadrunner53

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2168
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6824 on: April 10, 2019, 09:05:27 AM »
According to Trump, George Washington missed a marketing opportunity by not naming real estate after himself. He even finds fault with dead Presidents. I wonder what nickname he would have given GW?

https://nypost.com/2019/04/10/trump-washington-should-have-named-mount-vernon-after-himself/

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2066
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6825 on: April 10, 2019, 09:28:57 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/10/politics/donald-trump-taxes-release-audit/index.html

Alright, the 'I'm under audit' bit has worn out at this point.  In fact, making Trump do something he doesn't want to do sounds quite refreshing and I think that is the thing that really energizes the opposition at this point.  I don't necessarily care about the details of his taxes (other than obvious profiting off of a conflicted premise - it would suck if America is being sold out for a few hundred million bucks.  Heck, even I could sell the US for a couple billion, and I'm not 'the smartest person ever').

Quote
"I built a great company, one of the best companies, I have some of the greatest assets in the world, I did a good job, and now, frankly, I don't care about them, I only care about the United States," Trump said Wednesday.


Sounds like a great argument to show off and release your tax returns....


« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 09:35:20 AM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

JLee

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5394
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6826 on: April 10, 2019, 10:17:24 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/10/politics/donald-trump-taxes-release-audit/index.html

Alright, the 'I'm under audit' bit has worn out at this point.  In fact, making Trump do something he doesn't want to do sounds quite refreshing and I think that is the thing that really energizes the opposition at this point.  I don't necessarily care about the details of his taxes (other than obvious profiting off of a conflicted premise - it would suck if America is being sold out for a few hundred million bucks.  Heck, even I could sell the US for a couple billion, and I'm not 'the smartest person ever').

Quote
"I built a great company, one of the best companies, I have some of the greatest assets in the world, I did a good job, and now, frankly, I don't care about them, I only care about the United States," Trump said Wednesday.


Sounds like a great argument to show off and release your tax returns....

It's somewhat concerning that he's outright refusing to allow the release of his returns despite the law specifically saying the IRS "shall" provide them on request. There is no option here.

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9246
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6827 on: April 10, 2019, 10:19:36 AM »
“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”
You shush!  Trump already told us he's the least racist person in the world.  Stop using his own words against him.
Note that even the Washington Post says that is "at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism'."
If only there existed other evidence of his racism...
There are plenty of well-documented and verified things Trump has said and done that may be legitimate targets for criticism.  A particularly crude, but of dubious authenticity, quote falls short of being "corroborating evidence."
Even if Donald Trump says that they're probably true in an interview?  Or are we supposed to assume that Trump is not reliable as a source due to his history of lying?
Those interested in details can read the snopes article (and links therein) linked in one of the above quotes and form their own opinions.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6828 on: April 10, 2019, 10:27:23 AM »
It's somewhat concerning that he's outright refusing to allow the release of his returns despite the law specifically saying the IRS "shall" provide them on request. There is no option here.

The argument that Trump's lawyers made doesn't seem to be challenging the fact that Congress "shall furnish" the tax returns if requested, but is instead attempting to argue that Congress cannot make the request.  It's based on the assumption that Congress needs to have some legitimate legislative purpose for seeing them, and that investigating potential criminal conduct or investigating accusations of fraud are not "legislative" purposes and thus are not within Congress's purview.

All of the legal analysis I have seen online suggests this is a crazy long shot, just like his initial Muslim ban or the current ACA repeal lawsuits are crazy long shots.  But it doesn't matter how stupid the justification is, as long as you file the paperwork.  Trump doesn't really care about what's legal, and he doesn't care if he's eventually going to lose or settle the suit, he only cares about getting a temporary injunction to slow down the process long enough that he doesn't suffer politically while still in office.  He only needs to stall the case for two more years, until after the next election, and there are plenty of republican judges willing to grant him that delay because it doesn't hurt their judicial reputations to say "we should slow down, wait and think about this" even when they know the only legally defensible answer is obviously to rule against the president.

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2066
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6829 on: April 10, 2019, 11:32:29 AM »
Like I posted in my new journal, we live in interesting times.  I'm not sure exactly what a Trump Presidency is meant to achieve.  In a way, as far as inoculating a group against something, maybe the Nation is at the same point as the NYC measles outbreak...  I can only hope that, when faced with immediate mortality, that people make 'more wise' decisions...

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2308
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6830 on: April 10, 2019, 01:16:33 PM »
Reviewed my tax return last night. About 10% more income in 2018 than in 2017, but paid an almost identical amount of Federal Income Tax.

I didn't think TCJA was well-designed, or really even a reform for individual taxes, but I can see why many people might find that achievement compelling. Trump will be hard to beat.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10051
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6831 on: April 10, 2019, 01:30:54 PM »
Reviewed my tax return last night. About 10% more income in 2018 than in 2017, but paid an almost identical amount of Federal Income Tax.

I didn't think TCJA was well-designed, or really even a reform for individual taxes, but I can see why many people might find that achievement compelling. Trump will be hard to beat.
Really?  I was thinking the opposite - besides being historically unpopular, the JCJA had the unfortunate structure that it went into effect too soon in his presidency.  Memories are short.  Some people might notice a lower rate now (though the change in withholdings means many aren't), but they're going to compare 2019's taxes with 2018, not pre-2017.    The GOP fired off their powder in a non-election cycle.

Meanwhile, ballooning deficits will be an easier campaign issue in 2020 than a several-years-old tax cut that's never gotten a lot of traction.

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1954
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6832 on: April 10, 2019, 09:00:58 PM »
Between all the entities that Trump owns his tax returns would probably be 2,000 pages, and it will take quite a while for tax experts to understand and sort it out.

I also think that corporate tax returns do include assets.

MasterStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2045
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6833 on: April 11, 2019, 06:32:34 AM »
“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”
You shush!  Trump already told us he's the least racist person in the world.  Stop using his own words against him.
Note that even the Washington Post says that is "at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism'."
If only there existed other evidence of his racism...
There are plenty of well-documented and verified things Trump has said and done that may be legitimate targets for criticism.  A particularly crude, but of dubious authenticity, quote falls short of being "corroborating evidence."
Even if Donald Trump says that they're probably true in an interview?  Or are we supposed to assume that Trump is not reliable as a source due to his history of lying?
Those interested in details can read the snopes article (and links therein) linked in one of the above quotes and form their own opinions.

I saw the Snopes article and saw where Trump claimed the things that were said about him (this being one) were "probably true."  Taking the mountain of other evidence into consideration I would deem the claim most likely true. Seems like a very strange and detailed tidbit to just pull out of thin air. Certainly can't directly prove it as I wasn't there and there are no actual recordings. Of course actual recordings don't mean much either since his most ardent supporters still don't believe he "grabs em by the pussy."  Just my two cents.

Actually now that I think about it, they probably do agree he "grabs em by the pussy" and that's one of the things they love about him. 

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9246
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6834 on: April 11, 2019, 01:53:10 PM »
“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”
You shush!  Trump already told us he's the least racist person in the world.  Stop using his own words against him.
Note that even the Washington Post says that is "at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism'."
If only there existed other evidence of his racism...
There are plenty of well-documented and verified things Trump has said and done that may be legitimate targets for criticism.  A particularly crude, but of dubious authenticity, quote falls short of being "corroborating evidence."
Even if Donald Trump says that they're probably true in an interview?  Or are we supposed to assume that Trump is not reliable as a source due to his history of lying?
Those interested in details can read the snopes article (and links therein) linked in one of the above quotes and form their own opinions.
I saw the Snopes article and saw where Trump claimed the things that were said about him (this being one) were "probably true."  Taking the mountain of other evidence into consideration I would deem the claim most likely true. Seems like a very strange and detailed tidbit to just pull out of thin air. Certainly can't directly prove it as I wasn't there and there are no actual recordings. Of course actual recordings don't mean much either since his most ardent supporters still don't believe he "grabs em by the pussy."  Just my two cents.
For those who haven't checked the link:
"Although Trump didn’t deny any of O’Donnell’s specific allegations in a subsequent (1997)Playboy magazine interview — “The stuff O’Donnell wrote about me is probably true,” Trump said at the time — he vehemently denied O’Donnell’s account of the conversation when asked about it during a 24 October 1999 interview with Tim Russert on Meet the Press"
and
"As the Washington Post noted, it is, at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism.'"

MasterStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2045
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6835 on: April 11, 2019, 06:31:43 PM »
“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”
You shush!  Trump already told us he's the least racist person in the world.  Stop using his own words against him.
Note that even the Washington Post says that is "at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism'."
If only there existed other evidence of his racism...
There are plenty of well-documented and verified things Trump has said and done that may be legitimate targets for criticism.  A particularly crude, but of dubious authenticity, quote falls short of being "corroborating evidence."
Even if Donald Trump says that they're probably true in an interview?  Or are we supposed to assume that Trump is not reliable as a source due to his history of lying?
Those interested in details can read the snopes article (and links therein) linked in one of the above quotes and form their own opinions.
I saw the Snopes article and saw where Trump claimed the things that were said about him (this being one) were "probably true."  Taking the mountain of other evidence into consideration I would deem the claim most likely true. Seems like a very strange and detailed tidbit to just pull out of thin air. Certainly can't directly prove it as I wasn't there and there are no actual recordings. Of course actual recordings don't mean much either since his most ardent supporters still don't believe he "grabs em by the pussy."  Just my two cents.
For those who haven't checked the link:
"Although Trump didn’t deny any of O’Donnell’s specific allegations in a subsequent (1997)Playboy magazine interview — “The stuff O’Donnell wrote about me is probably true,” Trump said at the time — he vehemently denied O’Donnell’s account of the conversation when asked about it during a 24 October 1999 interview with Tim Russert on Meet the Press"
and
"As the Washington Post noted, it is, at best, a secondhand quote from a private conversation, written down years after the fact, and should be viewed 'with some skepticism.'"

Well he denied it so it must be true. I know I know Obama is a Kenyan Muslim, China invented climate change, our bodies run on batteries and wind turbines cause cancer. That last one is my favorite btw. I am getting checked out tomorrow since we drove through a wind farm last month. You can never be too careful when it comes to wind cancer.

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9246
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6836 on: April 11, 2019, 06:57:53 PM »
Well he denied it so it must be true. I know I know Obama is a Kenyan Muslim, China invented climate change, our bodies run on batteries and wind turbines cause cancer. That last one is my favorite btw. I am getting checked out tomorrow since we drove through a wind farm last month. You can never be too careful when it comes to wind cancer.
In case the nested quotes obscured the point: there are plenty of well-documented and verified things Trump has said and done that may be legitimate targets for criticism.  This particularly crude, but of dubious authenticity, quote is not one of them.

MasterStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2045
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6837 on: April 11, 2019, 07:15:05 PM »
Well he denied it so it must be true. I know I know Obama is a Kenyan Muslim, China invented climate change, our bodies run on batteries and wind turbines cause cancer. That last one is my favorite btw. I am getting checked out tomorrow since we drove through a wind farm last month. You can never be too careful when it comes to wind cancer.
In case the nested quotes obscured the point: there are plenty of well-documented and verified things Trump has said and done that may be legitimate targets for criticism.  This particularly crude, but of dubious authenticity, quote is not one of them.

I love lamp?

All kidding aside if we literally took this approach and looked at each case independently and only cast judgement on "well documented and verifiable things" then the criticism of say Michael Jackson and Bill Cosby should full stop eh? I mean I wasn't in the the room while MJ was molesting a 7 year old and it's not exactly well documented nor verifiable. Thus we have spoken word as the only evidence. In a court of law witness to a crime is pretty damn strong evidence of wrongdoing. (Yes I realize Trump saying racist things isn't a crime) 

Also in the process of being free to express our own opinions, we are also free to criticize. Ain't it great?
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 04:52:04 AM by MasterStache »

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2308
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6838 on: April 12, 2019, 08:04:01 AM »
Indeed, speech is protected.

Taking actions as a landlord that are racist can be criminal. Making racist-sounding comments while taking those actions can establish intent.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6839 on: April 12, 2019, 08:17:50 AM »
Indeed, speech is protected.

Taking actions as a landlord that are racist can be criminal. Making racist-sounding comments while taking those actions can establish intent.

Fortunately for the sake of this argument, Donald Trump has definitely done both of those things.

For just one well documented source among many:  https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/us/politics/donald-trump-housing-race.html

former player

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4087
  • Location: Avalon
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6840 on: April 16, 2019, 01:30:20 AM »
Are the President's Twitter writings still official announcements of US policy?

Asking for a neighbour in distress.

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9246
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6841 on: April 16, 2019, 02:03:09 AM »
Are the President's Twitter writings still official announcements of US policy?

Asking for a neighbour in distress.
No.  Never have been - other than by coincidence, as a stopped clock is occasionally correct.  See, for example, Presidential Actions | The White House for a more official channel.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 02:05:02 AM by MDM »

former player

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4087
  • Location: Avalon
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6842 on: April 16, 2019, 02:48:27 AM »
Are the President's Twitter writings still official announcements of US policy?

Asking for a neighbour in distress.
No.  Never have been - other than by coincidence, as a stopped clock is occasionally correct.  See, for example, Presidential Actions | The White House for a more official channel.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/nov/14/doj-donald-trump-tweets-are-official-statements-of/

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/11/14/trumps_tweets_are_they_presidential_statements_or_not/

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9246
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6843 on: April 16, 2019, 03:21:40 AM »
Are the President's Twitter writings still official announcements of US policy?

Asking for a neighbour in distress.
No.  Never have been - other than by coincidence, as a stopped clock is occasionally correct.  See, for example, Presidential Actions | The White House for a more official channel.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/nov/14/doj-donald-trump-tweets-are-official-statements-of/

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/11/14/trumps_tweets_are_they_presidential_statements_or_not/
There is a significant difference between "official statement of the President" vs. "US policy."  The former is not policy, the latter is.  What is it that is causing your neighbor's distress?

former player

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4087
  • Location: Avalon
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6844 on: April 16, 2019, 04:45:09 AM »
Are the President's Twitter writings still official announcements of US policy?

Asking for a neighbour in distress.
No.  Never have been - other than by coincidence, as a stopped clock is occasionally correct.  See, for example, Presidential Actions | The White House for a more official channel.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/nov/14/doj-donald-trump-tweets-are-official-statements-of/

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/11/14/trumps_tweets_are_they_presidential_statements_or_not/
There is a significant difference between "official statement of the President" vs. "US policy."  The former is not policy, the latter is.  What is it that is causing your neighbor's distress?

Moonwaves

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1082
  • Location: Germany
    • My blog
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6845 on: April 16, 2019, 06:24:56 AM »
For anyone who hasn't yet seen it, there was a response- specially written in English, too.

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2066
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6846 on: April 16, 2019, 06:27:46 AM »
Had a chat with my French colleagues at lunch.  One engineer did not realize why there had to be so much discussion about such a ridiculous proposal such as water bombing the Notre Dame fire to put it out.  I told him that Trump had tweeted the suggestion and the whole table started laughing. 

I wonder if anyone ever points out to Trump that many of his Tweets make him look like a moron.  Of course, if anyone else were Tweeting these things, they would be dismissed as someone without a clue weighing in on something they know nothing about.

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3947
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6847 on: April 16, 2019, 06:55:45 AM »
Had a chat with my French colleagues at lunch.  One engineer did not realize why there had to be so much discussion about such a ridiculous proposal such as water bombing the Notre Dame fire to put it out.  I told him that Trump had tweeted the suggestion and the whole table started laughing. 

I wonder if anyone ever points out to Trump that many of his Tweets make him look like a moron.  Of course, if anyone else were Tweeting these things, they would be dismissed as someone without a clue weighing in on something they know nothing about.

My guess is they don’t bother. Anyone who still supports him at this point is brainwashed enough to think anything he says is a good idea, and everyone else already knows he’s a freaking idiot. So one more idiotic tweet makes no difference anymore.

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2308
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6848 on: April 16, 2019, 07:07:11 AM »
Registered GOP here. I noticed that Bill Weld is running, planning to donate during the first day so that he can report me in his fund-raising totals.

If his total is only $25, you'll know it was me and one other guy.

LennStar

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1268
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #6849 on: April 16, 2019, 10:09:20 AM »
Registered GOP here. I noticed that Bill Weld is running, planning to donate during the first day so that he can report me in his fund-raising totals.

If his total is only $25, you'll know it was me and one other guy.
So you donated $24,99?

I admit I follow Trump's twitter. First, he is better than a paid comedian. Second, you often get to know about things because he is saying three times in a day what completely bullshit they are. His anger is like a compass, it always points directly away from the next upcoming scandal. Turn round 180° and it screams you in the face.
Way easier than Kremlinology.