Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 502075 times)

ysette9

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So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5900 on: January 30, 2019, 01:55:46 PM »
Here is another winning...

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/foxconn-may-not-build-10b-wisconsin-plant-trump-touted-n964411
Having just come back from a business trip to China where I saw assembly lines for consumer electronic products, I can’t imagine how Foxconn could assemble LCDs in the US profitably. Granted, my knowledge and experience in this area are very limited. But the factories i’m familiar with work six days a week, their employees live in company dormitories on-site, and are often young, from the countryside, and there working for several years to make money because the jobs pay so much better than back in their home towns. The business model would have to adjust quite a bit to work in the US; I don’t imagine factory workers here lining up to share living quarters and work six days a week.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5901 on: January 30, 2019, 02:25:41 PM »
Here is another winning...

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/foxconn-may-not-build-10b-wisconsin-plant-trump-touted-n964411
Having just come back from a business trip to China where I saw assembly lines for consumer electronic products, I canít imagine how Foxconn could assemble LCDs in the US profitably. Granted, my knowledge and experience in this area are very limited. But the factories iím familiar with work six days a week, their employees live in company dormitories on-site, and are often young, from the countryside, and there working for several years to make money because the jobs pay so much better than back in their home towns. The business model would have to adjust quite a bit to work in the US; I donít imagine factory workers here lining up to share living quarters and work six days a week.

I was kinda ticked that they got offered $3B in tax breaks, particularly during a time of very low unemployment and vary large deficits.

ysette9

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5902 on: January 30, 2019, 03:01:25 PM »
Here is another winning...

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/foxconn-may-not-build-10b-wisconsin-plant-trump-touted-n964411
Having just come back from a business trip to China where I saw assembly lines for consumer electronic products, I can’t imagine how Foxconn could assemble LCDs in the US profitably. Granted, my knowledge and experience in this area are very limited. But the factories i’m familiar with work six days a week, their employees live in company dormitories on-site, and are often young, from the countryside, and there working for several years to make money because the jobs pay so much better than back in their home towns. The business model would have to adjust quite a bit to work in the US; I don’t imagine factory workers here lining up to share living quarters and work six days a week.

I was kinda ticked that they got offered $3B in tax breaks, particularly during a time of very low unemployment and vary large deficits.
The article I read in The Economist was saying that the math didn’t add up in favor of the state any way you look at it.

FIPurpose

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5903 on: January 30, 2019, 03:02:23 PM »
Here is another winning...

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/foxconn-may-not-build-10b-wisconsin-plant-trump-touted-n964411
Having just come back from a business trip to China where I saw assembly lines for consumer electronic products, I canít imagine how Foxconn could assemble LCDs in the US profitably. Granted, my knowledge and experience in this area are very limited. But the factories iím familiar with work six days a week, their employees live in company dormitories on-site, and are often young, from the countryside, and there working for several years to make money because the jobs pay so much better than back in their home towns. The business model would have to adjust quite a bit to work in the US; I donít imagine factory workers here lining up to share living quarters and work six days a week.

I was kinda ticked that they got offered $3B in tax breaks, particularly during a time of very low unemployment and vary large deficits.

It looks like they'll likely not be getting those tax breaks since they're backing out. Even if they do put a smaller factory there.

China works for cheaper because they have to. To sell in the US you have to overcome a massive transportation bill. Which seems to be the main reason cars are still manufactured in the US. TV's in particular are very difficult to make, I believe there are only a handful manufacturers. I believe there is 1 American OLED manufacturer in Oregon.  And maybe 1-2 very small LCD factories.

But most US factories aren't that different. A lot of factories here still run 24/7 3 shifts 7 days a week. And there are plenty of oil workers in the midwest that still dorm living at site. It has nothing to do with what American workers are willing or capable of doing; it has everything to do with trade negotiations and labor prices.

I think some of the protectionism Trump has pushed for is good especially in the new round of NAFTA is good trying to force international wages higher. I think this is a much better route that tariffs. The problem is enforcement. There is no easy way to enforce that clause. If it were possible, we need something similar with SE Asia. We need labor protection in the US, and we can't compete with Chinese/Taiwan/Malaysian/Bangladeshi wages. We need some mechanism of forcing other countries to pay rising wages so that we can repatriot some of our own manufacturing.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5904 on: January 30, 2019, 04:20:27 PM »
I think some of the protectionism Trump has pushed for is good especially in the new round of NAFTA is good trying to force international wages higher. I think this is a much better route that tariffs. The problem is enforcement. There is no easy way to enforce that clause. If it were possible, we need something similar with SE Asia. We need labor protection in the US, and we can't compete with Chinese/Taiwan/Malaysian/Bangladeshi wages. We need some mechanism of forcing other countries to pay rising wages so that we can repatriot some of our own manufacturing.

The ironic thing is the US was actually against improving the labour protection laws while they renegotiated NAFTA. It was Canada that was trying to push for more enforceable provisions which would have increased wages and increased labour protection for workers which would've brought the countries more in line for costs.

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5905 on: January 30, 2019, 07:54:09 PM »
Yes, Canada's more comprehensive social safety net makes us less competitive price-wise than you murican types.

Everybody says the Trudeau government was doing it because they're all about social justice, but there's also an economic rationale.

As the standard of living in China increases, maybe we will see a leveling out in labour costs.

toganet

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5906 on: January 31, 2019, 06:10:50 AM »
And as wages go higher (whether overseas or locally) the prices of manufactured goods would be expected to increase.  If suddenly Chinese-made TVs were banned in the US and a whole supply chain of factories were spun up paying honorable wages to workers building TVs, the price of a TV would go up.  (By how much I don't know, maybe not that much).  This would be expected to reduce the overall volume of TV sales -- unless of course everyone's wages had also gone up proportionally so that their TV budget has also grown.  But then everything those folks are building would need to have gotten more expensive, too, right? 

If our desired outcome is increased wages for manufacturing, this doesn't seem like the way forward.  "This" being localizing manufacture of consumer goods.  Heck, at a certain point there won't be any cheap labor left, though it might take generations for standards of living in all of the third world to rise to the level of the West.  Then what, robots?

Even my pet idea -- adding a tax to long-distance shipping as a way to incentivize local production and reduce greenhouse gas production -- would probably not increase wages in a way that would allow for continued cheap consumer items.  Of course, there are other levers at work here, such as Government subsidies (cheap cheese!) and corporate profits / executive salaries.  But I'm way off topic now. Į\_(ツ)_/Į

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5907 on: January 31, 2019, 10:35:01 AM »
And as wages go higher (whether overseas or locally) the prices of manufactured goods would be expected to increase.  If suddenly Chinese-made TVs were banned in the US and a whole supply chain of factories were spun up paying honorable wages to workers building TVs, the price of a TV would go up.  (By how much I don't know, maybe not that much).  This would be expected to reduce the overall volume of TV sales -- unless of course everyone's wages had also gone up proportionally so that their TV budget has also grown.  But then everything those folks are building would need to have gotten more expensive, too, right? 

If our desired outcome is increased wages for manufacturing, this doesn't seem like the way forward.  "This" being localizing manufacture of consumer goods.  Heck, at a certain point there won't be any cheap labor left, though it might take generations for standards of living in all of the third world to rise to the level of the West.  Then what, robots?

Even my pet idea -- adding a tax to long-distance shipping as a way to incentivize local production and reduce greenhouse gas production -- would probably not increase wages in a way that would allow for continued cheap consumer items.  Of course, there are other levers at work here, such as Government subsidies (cheap cheese!) and corporate profits / executive salaries.  But I'm way off topic now. Į\_(ツ)_/Į

How is a long-distance shipping tax different from a tariff?

toganet

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5908 on: January 31, 2019, 11:59:40 AM »
And as wages go higher (whether overseas or locally) the prices of manufactured goods would be expected to increase.  If suddenly Chinese-made TVs were banned in the US and a whole supply chain of factories were spun up paying honorable wages to workers building TVs, the price of a TV would go up.  (By how much I don't know, maybe not that much).  This would be expected to reduce the overall volume of TV sales -- unless of course everyone's wages had also gone up proportionally so that their TV budget has also grown.  But then everything those folks are building would need to have gotten more expensive, too, right? 

If our desired outcome is increased wages for manufacturing, this doesn't seem like the way forward.  "This" being localizing manufacture of consumer goods.  Heck, at a certain point there won't be any cheap labor left, though it might take generations for standards of living in all of the third world to rise to the level of the West.  Then what, robots?

Even my pet idea -- adding a tax to long-distance shipping as a way to incentivize local production and reduce greenhouse gas production -- would probably not increase wages in a way that would allow for continued cheap consumer items.  Of course, there are other levers at work here, such as Government subsidies (cheap cheese!) and corporate profits / executive salaries.  But I'm way off topic now. Į\_(ツ)_/Į

How is a long-distance shipping tax different from a tariff?

In a lot of ways, it's not -- but significantly, the amount of the tax would vary based on things like distance and mode vs. being primarily about politics.  To work, it would also need to apply to exports as well as imports.  That is, if we want to limit greenhouse gases emitted via global trade, we have to focus on our local market not just for what we import, but also what we export.  This would obviously create a limit on market size for manufactured goods inside the US -- but there would be nothing under this scheme that would prevent a company from setting up shop in a foreign market to serve that market.

Just Joe

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5909 on: January 31, 2019, 12:02:09 PM »
To sell in the US you have to overcome a massive transportation bill. Which seems to be the main reason cars are still manufactured in the US.

What other cars are made in China and imported to the US?

Buick Envision
Cadillac CT6
Ford Focus
Honda Fit

https://www.quora.com/What-cars-are-made-in-China-and-sold-in-the-US-Donald-Trump-tweeted-that-cars-made-in-China-and-sold-in-the-US-have-a-2-tariff

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5910 on: January 31, 2019, 01:50:30 PM »
Here is another winning...

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/foxconn-may-not-build-10b-wisconsin-plant-trump-touted-n964411
Having just come back from a business trip to China where I saw assembly lines for consumer electronic products, I canít imagine how Foxconn could assemble LCDs in the US profitably. Granted, my knowledge and experience in this area are very limited. But the factories iím familiar with work six days a week, their employees live in company dormitories on-site, and are often young, from the countryside, and there working for several years to make money because the jobs pay so much better than back in their home towns. The business model would have to adjust quite a bit to work in the US; I donít imagine factory workers here lining up to share living quarters and work six days a week.

I was kinda ticked that they got offered $3B in tax breaks, particularly during a time of very low unemployment and vary large deficits.
The article I read in The Economist was saying that the math didnít add up in favor of the state any way you look at it.

Right, that is my understanding as well. imho why on earth we gave them billions of dollar in tax breaks in when common folks can see that this is not adding up. Are people who works at our gov that stupid, or is there something else going on....

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5911 on: January 31, 2019, 01:58:13 PM »
Here is another winning...

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/foxconn-may-not-build-10b-wisconsin-plant-trump-touted-n964411
Having just come back from a business trip to China where I saw assembly lines for consumer electronic products, I canít imagine how Foxconn could assemble LCDs in the US profitably. Granted, my knowledge and experience in this area are very limited. But the factories iím familiar with work six days a week, their employees live in company dormitories on-site, and are often young, from the countryside, and there working for several years to make money because the jobs pay so much better than back in their home towns. The business model would have to adjust quite a bit to work in the US; I donít imagine factory workers here lining up to share living quarters and work six days a week.

I was kinda ticked that they got offered $3B in tax breaks, particularly during a time of very low unemployment and vary large deficits.
The article I read in The Economist was saying that the math didnít add up in favor of the state any way you look at it.

Right, that is my understanding as well. imho why on earth we gave them billions of dollar in tax breaks in when common folks can see that this is not adding up. Are people who works at our gov that stupid, or is there something else going on....

As I see it, we've got a sort of 'race to the bottom' offering large corporations huge tax breaks in exchange for building a plant there.  Companies are forcing cities to bid against each other to get the best deal, and governors are so eager to show that they wooed a factory with 1,000 or 10,000 jobs to some city that they'll rob peter to pay paul.
From Wisconsin's own analysis of the Foxconn deal, under the best scenario they wouldn't have made a profit for 25 years.  years.  What's the probability that this particular plant is still in operation in this location 25 years from now? Would it still employ a few thousand middle-class people, or would it be staffed by two dozen technicians servicing the robotic fleet assembling whatever trinkets we want in 2044?

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5912 on: January 31, 2019, 05:23:29 PM »
And more crappy changes that the Trump administration is doing, including limiting the definition of sexual assault to something more akin to something 50 years ago, so for example being molested fondled, attempted sexual assault, are not included in the definition. Domestic abuse is only if there is "physical harm". So for example threats and stalking don't count.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-domestic-abuse-sexual-assault-definition-womens-rights-justice-department-a8744546.html?fbclid=IwAR3EjcEbQutKsC414x_gebjzNsQPFlYU5K_0lLnAaDCDKm3NK1krrESDoZQ

AND changing the rules for campus sexual assault and reporting, ala Betsy Devos. Obama-era guidelines instructed schools to use "a preponderance of evidence" as proof of allegations, the new regulations allow schools to choose whether they will instead require a higher standard: "clear and convincing evidence." They also don't have to investigate if it happens off-campus, because of course rapes never happen in that situation? The college doesn't have to investigate if it is reported to a  coach or resident advisor, but only mandated if reported to "official Title IX officer" (like most college students would even know who this person is).  These new rules seem designed to discourage women from reporting rape or the reports from having to be investigated.
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/17/668643263/devos-announces-new-rules-on-campus-sexual-assault-new-bill-tries-to-simplify-fi
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 05:25:11 PM by partgypsy »

AdrianC

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5913 on: January 31, 2019, 07:30:48 PM »
To sell in the US you have to overcome a massive transportation bill. Which seems to be the main reason cars are still manufactured in the US.

What other cars are made in China and imported to the US?

Buick Envision
Cadillac CT6
Ford Focus
Honda Fit

https://www.quora.com/What-cars-are-made-in-China-and-sold-in-the-US-Donald-Trump-tweeted-that-cars-made-in-China-and-sold-in-the-US-have-a-2-tariff

Honda Fit is built in Mexico.

ysette9

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5914 on: January 31, 2019, 07:48:46 PM »
And more crappy changes that the Trump administration is doing, including limiting the definition of sexual assault to something more akin to something 50 years ago, so for example being molested fondled, attempted sexual assault, are not included in the definition. Domestic abuse is only if there is "physical harm". So for example threats and stalking don't count.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-domestic-abuse-sexual-assault-definition-womens-rights-justice-department-a8744546.html?fbclid=IwAR3EjcEbQutKsC414x_gebjzNsQPFlYU5K_0lLnAaDCDKm3NK1krrESDoZQ

AND changing the rules for campus sexual assault and reporting, ala Betsy Devos. Obama-era guidelines instructed schools to use "a preponderance of evidence" as proof of allegations, the new regulations allow schools to choose whether they will instead require a higher standard: "clear and convincing evidence." They also don't have to investigate if it happens off-campus, because of course rapes never happen in that situation? The college doesn't have to investigate if it is reported to a  coach or resident advisor, but only mandated if reported to "official Title IX officer" (like most college students would even know who this person is).  These new rules seem designed to discourage women from reporting rape or the reports from having to be investigated.
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/17/668643263/devos-announces-new-rules-on-campus-sexual-assault-new-bill-tries-to-simplify-fi
Such infuriating bullshit.

Remind me again why I should continue to raise my little girls in this country?

Just Joe

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5915 on: January 31, 2019, 09:45:41 PM »
Honda Fit is built in Mexico.

You are correct.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5916 on: February 01, 2019, 05:33:09 AM »
And more crappy changes that the Trump administration is doing, including limiting the definition of sexual assault to something more akin to something 50 years ago, so for example being molested fondled, attempted sexual assault, are not included in the definition. Domestic abuse is only if there is "physical harm". So for example threats and stalking don't count.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-domestic-abuse-sexual-assault-definition-womens-rights-justice-department-a8744546.html?fbclid=IwAR3EjcEbQutKsC414x_gebjzNsQPFlYU5K_0lLnAaDCDKm3NK1krrESDoZQ

AND changing the rules for campus sexual assault and reporting, ala Betsy Devos. Obama-era guidelines instructed schools to use "a preponderance of evidence" as proof of allegations, the new regulations allow schools to choose whether they will instead require a higher standard: "clear and convincing evidence." They also don't have to investigate if it happens off-campus, because of course rapes never happen in that situation? The college doesn't have to investigate if it is reported to a  coach or resident advisor, but only mandated if reported to "official Title IX officer" (like most college students would even know who this person is).  These new rules seem designed to discourage women from reporting rape or the reports from having to be investigated.
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/17/668643263/devos-announces-new-rules-on-campus-sexual-assault-new-bill-tries-to-simplify-fi
Such infuriating bullshit.

Remind me again why I should continue to raise my little girls in this country?

I could be wrong, but I get the feeling that these measures (include the transgender ban and 'bathroom' bills)  are the last ditch measures of the boomers to protect this culture of 'manly men' and clear gender norms. Thankfully the next three generations (at least) don't want that.  Unfortunately this will be very bad for the thousands of people who will be impacted while these laws are in effect.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5917 on: February 01, 2019, 06:27:55 AM »
And as wages go higher (whether overseas or locally) the prices of manufactured goods would be expected to increase. 
The experience of McDonald's suggests that a 20% increase in wages results in a 1% increase in prices.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5918 on: February 01, 2019, 06:39:32 AM »
And as wages go higher (whether overseas or locally) the prices of manufactured goods would be expected to increase. 
The experience of McDonald's suggests that a 20% increase in wages results in a 1% increase in prices.

It all depends on what the labor costs are for the particular item being purchased. For a Big Mac at McDonalds, very little of the cost is labor; the hallmark of fast-food (pioneered by Ray Kroc) is for a handful of workers to churn out hundreds of meals per hour. 
Items which require far more labor will see a substantially larger increase in cost if wages go up.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5919 on: February 01, 2019, 06:47:10 AM »

I could be wrong, but I get the feeling that these measures (include the transgender ban and 'bathroom' bills)  are the last ditch measures of the boomers to protect this culture of 'manly men' and clear gender norms. Thankfully the next three generations (at least) don't want that.  Unfortunately this will be very bad for the thousands of people who will be impacted while these laws are in effect.

I'm a boomer* (but not in the US) and these bills are nothing I need.  A lot of us were the hippie generation, we got used to lots of non-standard appearances. 

*1946-64 seems to be a standard birth grouping, so we are now 72 to 54?  Shades of the Vietnam War protests, Haight-Ashbury, etc.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5920 on: February 01, 2019, 07:39:15 AM »
In his own words. This man does not appear fit to hold office.

Excerpts From Trumpís Interview With The New York Times

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5921 on: February 01, 2019, 07:40:28 AM »

I could be wrong, but I get the feeling that these measures (include the transgender ban and 'bathroom' bills)  are the last ditch measures of the boomers to protect this culture of 'manly men' and clear gender norms. Thankfully the next three generations (at least) don't want that.  Unfortunately this will be very bad for the thousands of people who will be impacted while these laws are in effect.

I'm a boomer* (but not in the US) and these bills are nothing I need.  A lot of us were the hippie generation, we got used to lots of non-standard appearances. 

*1946-64 seems to be a standard birth grouping, so we are now 72 to 54?  Shades of the Vietnam War protests, Haight-Ashbury, etc.
yeah... sorry... that was sloppy of me, conflating entire generations when my intention was more over generational trends. Certainly there's a diversity of viewpoints within each generational bracket.

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5922 on: February 01, 2019, 08:09:45 AM »

I could be wrong, but I get the feeling that these measures (include the transgender ban and 'bathroom' bills)  are the last ditch measures of the boomers to protect this culture of 'manly men' and clear gender norms. Thankfully the next three generations (at least) don't want that.  Unfortunately this will be very bad for the thousands of people who will be impacted while these laws are in effect.

I'm a boomer* (but not in the US) and these bills are nothing I need.  A lot of us were the hippie generation, we got used to lots of non-standard appearances. 

*1946-64 seems to be a standard birth grouping, so we are now 72 to 54?  Shades of the Vietnam War protests, Haight-Ashbury, etc.
yeah... sorry... that was sloppy of me, conflating entire generations when my intention was more over generational trends. Certainly there's a diversity of viewpoints within each generational bracket.

Unfortunately in the US the ones doing all this legislation are early boomers, so we all get labeled.  People who mostly have had privilege from day 1 and figure it is their god-given right to have it.  Which of course means the rest of us have to fall in line with their world view.  /s

Omy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5923 on: February 01, 2019, 08:15:14 AM »
The majority of us don't want to move back to 1950 - regardless of age. I'm in my 50s and am appalled that women and minorities are having to fight for basic equality again. And there are lots of people in their 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s who feel the same way.

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5924 on: February 01, 2019, 08:38:33 AM »
The majority of us don't want to move back to 1950 - regardless of age. I'm in my 50s and am appalled that women and minorities are having to fight for basic equality again. And there are lots of people in their 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s who feel the same way.

I'm in my 60's and I sure don't want the 50's back again.

For those who have forgotten, or are too young to remember, 2 movies to give you a feel for how it was:
On the Basis of Sex
Hidden Figures

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5925 on: February 01, 2019, 08:39:42 AM »

I could be wrong, but I get the feeling that these measures (include the transgender ban and 'bathroom' bills)  are the last ditch measures of the boomers to protect this culture of 'manly men' and clear gender norms. Thankfully the next three generations (at least) don't want that.  Unfortunately this will be very bad for the thousands of people who will be impacted while these laws are in effect.

I'm a boomer* (but not in the US) and these bills are nothing I need.  A lot of us were the hippie generation, we got used to lots of non-standard appearances. 

*1946-64 seems to be a standard birth grouping, so we are now 72 to 54?  Shades of the Vietnam War protests, Haight-Ashbury, etc.
yeah... sorry... that was sloppy of me, conflating entire generations when my intention was more over generational trends. Certainly there's a diversity of viewpoints within each generational bracket.

Yes, there is diversity within this "baby boomer" cohort; however, there is this narrative that the "political correct" movement has gotten out of control among older conservatives, a narrative that is amplified by "Fox and Friends". I hear very few people under the age of 40 tut tut and shake their heads about "political correctness".

ketchup

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5926 on: February 01, 2019, 08:42:55 AM »
And more crappy changes that the Trump administration is doing, including limiting the definition of sexual assault to something more akin to something 50 years ago, so for example being molested fondled, attempted sexual assault, are not included in the definition. Domestic abuse is only if there is "physical harm". So for example threats and stalking don't count.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-domestic-abuse-sexual-assault-definition-womens-rights-justice-department-a8744546.html?fbclid=IwAR3EjcEbQutKsC414x_gebjzNsQPFlYU5K_0lLnAaDCDKm3NK1krrESDoZQ

AND changing the rules for campus sexual assault and reporting, ala Betsy Devos. Obama-era guidelines instructed schools to use "a preponderance of evidence" as proof of allegations, the new regulations allow schools to choose whether they will instead require a higher standard: "clear and convincing evidence." They also don't have to investigate if it happens off-campus, because of course rapes never happen in that situation? The college doesn't have to investigate if it is reported to a  coach or resident advisor, but only mandated if reported to "official Title IX officer" (like most college students would even know who this person is).  These new rules seem designed to discourage women from reporting rape or the reports from having to be investigated.
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/17/668643263/devos-announces-new-rules-on-campus-sexual-assault-new-bill-tries-to-simplify-fi
This is so gross.  Things were starting to get better, so let's turn the clock back and start over?

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5927 on: February 01, 2019, 09:30:00 AM »
Yes, there is diversity within this "baby boomer" cohort; however, there is this narrative that the "political correct" movement has gotten out of control among older conservatives, a narrative that is amplified by "Fox and Friends". I hear very few people under the age of 40 tut tut and shake their heads about "political correctness".

I'm still late 60s (not getting any younger) but Canadian, and a lot of the PC stuff seems to me to be basic politeness and consideration.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2019, 09:33:07 AM by RetiredAt63 »

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5928 on: February 01, 2019, 09:37:09 AM »
Yes, there is diversity within this "baby boomer" cohort; however, there is this narrative that the "political correct" movement has gotten out of control among older conservatives, a narrative that is amplified by "Fox and Friends". I hear very few people under the age of 40 tut tut and shake their heads about "political correctness".

I'm still late 60s (not getting any younger) but Canadian, and a lot of the PC stuff seems to me to be basic politeness and consideration.

Agreed. And also, a hell of a lot of the people I see railing against "PC" are people I've seen just being basic assholes to others. So, from my vantage point, it looks a lot like the anti-PC police just want license to be mean and not have anyone call them on it. 

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5929 on: February 01, 2019, 10:28:37 AM »
Yes, there is diversity within this "baby boomer" cohort; however, there is this narrative that the "political correct" movement has gotten out of control among older conservatives, a narrative that is amplified by "Fox and Friends". I hear very few people under the age of 40 tut tut and shake their heads about "political correctness".

I'm still late 60s (not getting any younger) but Canadian, and a lot of the PC stuff seems to me to be basic politeness and consideration.

Agreed. And also, a hell of a lot of the people I see railing against "PC" are people I've seen just being basic assholes to others. So, from my vantage point, it looks a lot like the anti-PC police just want license to be mean and not have anyone call them on it.

Gender identification is one area where I've observed some conflict.  Occasionally people (it's always been individuals over 40) get upset when a person asks to be identified by a pronoun which doesn't match their chromosomes. 

Here's how one of my students put the issue:
Suppose you meet a professor named Dr. Robert Smith.  When you first introduce yourself, the professor might say "Call me Robert" or maybe "Call me Bob" or perhaps "I'd like to be addressed as Dr. Smith".  Regardless, you'd probably address this person in the manner they prefer, regardless of whether you find "Bob" too informal or "Professor Smith" too stodgy.  You do what the person requests out of respect.  The same goes for people - if they prefer the female pronoun, just do it, regardless of whether you think they should identify as a man or a woman.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5930 on: February 01, 2019, 11:10:42 AM »
It's funny how the younger generation gets called the "snowflakes" and are portrayed as needing extra protections.  Looking at the "demands" from people it's clear who asks for simple respect and who are the snowflakes.

Pronouns- Can't bear to call a person whatever want, doesn't suit your sensitive standards on what is "he" or "she," can't figure out way to be polite-I'm sorry-you are a snowflake.

Bathrooms-Have a hard time thinking about that person and their gender? Think you have it figured out? Think it's offensive that a person who simply wants to perform a perfectly normal act comfortably? Don't want to sit down next to em? Sorry, you are a snowflake. I bet you'd melt into a puddle if you got caught in the middle lol.


sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5931 on: February 01, 2019, 11:21:18 AM »
Here's how one of my students put the issue:
Suppose you meet a professor named Dr. Robert Smith.  When you first introduce yourself, the professor might say "Call me Robert" or maybe "Call me Bob" or perhaps "I'd like to be addressed as Dr. Smith".  Regardless, you'd probably address this person in the manner they prefer, regardless of whether you find "Bob" too informal or "Professor Smith" too stodgy.  You do what the person requests out of respect.  The same goes for people - if they prefer the female pronoun, just do it, regardless of whether you think they should identify as a man or a woman.

Sometimes there's a power dynamic at play, though.  This often isn't a case where a student is being asked to respect a professor's wishes, but a case of 40+ white male who enjoys certain privileges in life being asked to respect the wishes of someone they consider not only a subordinate, but a subordinate who threatens their position of power.  Like if a homeless guy approaches a banker and asks for a dollar and then says "but you can't give it to me unless you call me "Sir" and bow a little when you hand it to me."  Suddenly they get a little huffy about what might otherwise have been an easy request to oblige.

People with non-normative gender identities are sometimes seen as a threat to established social orders.  People like clearly defined order, especially if they are on the winning side of that order.  Can you imagine a black man in 1890 South Carolina introducing himself by saying "and I prefer that you always refer to me as white."  Those old racist dudes don't really care what you prefer, they want everyone to know that you are inferior and they're not going to help you climb the status ladder by being bossed around by a subordinate.

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5932 on: February 01, 2019, 11:38:09 AM »
Those old racist dudes don't really care what you prefer, they want everyone to know that you are inferior and they're not going to help you climb the status ladder by being bossed around by a subordinate.

This has circled back to earlier posts - they want the 1950s back, where old white men were on top, young white men were right behind them on their way up, and everyone else was somewhere below them.  Sexist and racist.

Seriously, go watch "On the basis of sex" and see what the dean of Harvard law school says about Ruth Bader Ginsburg.  Now, I know its a movie and I am sure it was script, but it was typical.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5933 on: February 01, 2019, 02:18:15 PM »
I only made it through part of the interview transcript. Did he say anything there? I couldn’t get past the “tremendous”-es.

Is the guy capable of a multi-clause sentence?

Cool Friend

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5934 on: February 01, 2019, 02:21:00 PM »
I only made it through part of the interview transcript. Did he say anything there? I couldnít get past the ďtremendousĒ-es.

Is the guy capable of a multi-clause sentence?

Only when he continually interrupts himself while struggling to put together a cogent thought.

Dabnasty

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5935 on: February 01, 2019, 02:45:27 PM »
I only made it through part of the interview transcript. Did he say anything there? I couldnít get past the ďtremendousĒ-es.

Is the guy capable of a multi-clause sentence?

he said this...

Quote
TRUMP: Very interestingly, you know, George Washington ran his business. You can, I guess, you can go long beyond the election, if you wanted to. You know. But I didnít do that.

BAKER: But thereís a difference between running a domestic business and being possibly in business with Russian figures at the same time, right? You can imagine why people might find that concerning?

TRUMP: I have nothing. All I did was be a good candidate. Russia didnít help me. Russia did not help me. There was no collusion. There was none of that. I was a good candidate. I did a good job. I wonít say whether she was a good candidate or not. I mean, the primary collusion was Hillary Clinton. If you take a look, Peter. I mean, look at that phony dossier. Some of that money, they say, went to Russia. [Tony] Podesta was involved with Russia. You look at the kind of relationships they had. They had real relationships with Russia. I had a potential, a deal that frankly wasnít even a deal. It was literally ó I viewed it as an option. But maybe it was called a letter of intent. Something like that.

...so no, not really. And I count 20 separate sentences in his response to Baker, so again, that would be a no to complex sentences.

OtherJen

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5936 on: February 01, 2019, 03:28:11 PM »
I only made it through part of the interview transcript. Did he say anything there? I couldnít get past the ďtremendousĒ-es.

Is the guy capable of a multi-clause sentence?

I don't think so, no. He doesn't appear to be able to hold a complex train of thought long enough to do so.

OtherJen

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5937 on: February 01, 2019, 03:30:21 PM »
So MAGA back to the 1950s = Cold War v. 2?

The U.S. And Russia Are Stocking Up On Missiles And Nukes For A Different Kind Of War

Quote
Meanwhile, over 5,000 miles away in the Texas Panhandle, production has begun on a new kind of American nuclear weapon. Known as the W76-2, it is a much smaller variant of an existing nuclear weapon. The Trump administration says this new warhead will help counter Russia's capabilities.

So. Much. Winning. Benghazi. Emails. Comet Ping-pong. Very fine people, the best people. Tremendous.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5938 on: February 01, 2019, 04:13:59 PM »
So MAGA back to the 1950s = Cold War v. 2?

The U.S. And Russia Are Stocking Up On Missiles And Nukes For A Different Kind Of War

Quote
Meanwhile, over 5,000 miles away in the Texas Panhandle, production has begun on a new kind of American nuclear weapon. Known as the W76-2, it is a much smaller variant of an existing nuclear weapon. The Trump administration says this new warhead will help counter Russia's capabilities.

So. Much. Winning. Benghazi. Emails. Comet Ping-pong. Very fine people, the best people. Tremendous.

This is REALLY bad. We do not want another cold war. It took the combined efforts of all countries to get to a point of de-nuclearization. Trump is going to bring it BACK? The nuclear arms race? Escalation of nuclear tensions and and trying to keep the status quo by implicit threats of bombing everyone to oblivion?
WTF

ysette9

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5939 on: February 01, 2019, 04:20:19 PM »
That would create good jobs at home to develop the next nuclear weapon.

~eye roll~

I say this with full awareness of the irony being that I have worked on various mission programs at points in my career.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5940 on: February 01, 2019, 04:49:17 PM »
That would create good jobs at home to develop the next nuclear weapon.

~eye roll~

I say this with full awareness of the irony being that I have worked on various mission programs at points in my career.

I have not made any secret of how incredibly stupid I think Trump is. Very little that he does is surprising to me in that regard.

But every once in a while, he does something so MONUMENTALLY idiotic that I shake my head in sheer, unadulterated disbelief.

This is one of those things.

NorthernBlitz

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5941 on: February 02, 2019, 09:14:05 AM »
And more crappy changes that the Trump administration is doing, including limiting the definition of sexual assault to something more akin to something 50 years ago, so for example being molested fondled, attempted sexual assault, are not included in the definition. Domestic abuse is only if there is "physical harm". So for example threats and stalking don't count.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-domestic-abuse-sexual-assault-definition-womens-rights-justice-department-a8744546.html?fbclid=IwAR3EjcEbQutKsC414x_gebjzNsQPFlYU5K_0lLnAaDCDKm3NK1krrESDoZQ

AND changing the rules for campus sexual assault and reporting, ala Betsy Devos. Obama-era guidelines instructed schools to use "a preponderance of evidence" as proof of allegations, the new regulations allow schools to choose whether they will instead require a higher standard: "clear and convincing evidence." They also don't have to investigate if it happens off-campus, because of course rapes never happen in that situation? The college doesn't have to investigate if it is reported to a  coach or resident advisor, but only mandated if reported to "official Title IX officer" (like most college students would even know who this person is).  These new rules seem designed to discourage women from reporting rape or the reports from having to be investigated.
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/17/668643263/devos-announces-new-rules-on-campus-sexual-assault-new-bill-tries-to-simplify-fi

FWIW, the picture you're painting doesn't seem apply to the university I work at.

We have regular training (just completed two weeks ago) on harassment, discrimination, and sexual assault.

As faculty, we are obligated to report information students tell us regarding sexual misconduct (by university policy and it was implied that it was also a legal obligation). We have to report to our Title IX Officer (who we can easily look up if we don't remember). It was also made very clear that our obligation exists for incidents that happen on and off campus.

I personally wonder if the mandatory reporting provides an incentive not to report. Our training suggests that we should stop a student who we think is going to confide in us and make sure they are aware that we have a mandatory reporting requirement. I understand the need to make students aware, but I worry that interrupting what must be an extremely difficult conversation might make it so the conversation never happens.

The training we did wasn't specific to faculty, so I assume that it applies to all employees of the university.

OtherJen

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5942 on: February 02, 2019, 08:05:56 PM »
So MAGA back to the 1950s = Cold War v. 2?

The U.S. And Russia Are Stocking Up On Missiles And Nukes For A Different Kind Of War

Quote
Meanwhile, over 5,000 miles away in the Texas Panhandle, production has begun on a new kind of American nuclear weapon. Known as the W76-2, it is a much smaller variant of an existing nuclear weapon. The Trump administration says this new warhead will help counter Russia's capabilities.

So. Much. Winning. Benghazi. Emails. Comet Ping-pong. Very fine people, the best people. Tremendous.

Yep. Cold War v. 2. INF nuclear treaty: Russia follows US in suspending pact

Quote
Russia has suspended its involvement in the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) following a similar decision by the US.
President Vladimir Putin said Russia would start developing new missiles.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5943 on: February 03, 2019, 10:48:07 AM »
Putin worked very hard to put Trump in office.  Every action that Trump has made since coming to office has benefited Putin.  Clearly therefore, Putin wants this policy change and has communicated that fact to Trump.  So, I'm wondering what Putin's motivation was.

Cool Friend

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5944 on: February 03, 2019, 07:03:06 PM »
Putin worked very hard to put Trump in office.  Every action that Trump has made since coming to office has benefited Putin.  Clearly therefore, Putin wants this policy change and has communicated that fact to Trump.  So, I'm wondering what Putin's motivation was.

These particular developments tell us Putin wants to expand Russiaís nuclear arsenal with plausible deniability to the rest of the world that it was the US that reneged on armistice. I would guess global dominance is the motivation.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5945 on: February 03, 2019, 07:41:46 PM »
Well obviously no treaty, no consequences for Russia breaking the treaty.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5946 on: February 03, 2019, 10:03:46 PM »
Next stop Ukraine!

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5947 on: February 04, 2019, 07:27:15 AM »
The situation in Venezuela is an interesting test: it appears that Russia is pro-Maduro, while Trump is pro-Guaido.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5948 on: February 04, 2019, 01:36:24 PM »
Every once in a while, I try to imagine what a movie would look like based on the idea, "Hey, let's write a script about what would happen if that moron blowhard Donald Trump somehow ended up becoming president!"

And I realize that this reality is even stupider than that movie would be.

https://www.salon.com/2019/02/04/we-have-very-fast-airplanes-trumps-foreign-policy-pronouncements-go-beyond-self-parody/?fbclid=IwAR25NHQSF09i45lOt_0lL6YWMfdMLnRRE8VVRAViKJoJk09NglMLdTTEDcA

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5949 on: February 04, 2019, 01:47:36 PM »
Every once in a while, I try to imagine what a movie would look like based on the idea, "Hey, let's write a script about what would happen if that moron blowhard Donald Trump somehow ended up becoming president!"

And I realize that this reality is even stupider than that movie would be.

https://www.salon.com/2019/02/04/we-have-very-fast-airplanes-trumps-foreign-policy-pronouncements-go-beyond-self-parody/?fbclid=IwAR25NHQSF09i45lOt_0lL6YWMfdMLnRRE8VVRAViKJoJk09NglMLdTTEDcA

And yet, it just keeps going downhill. Trump has now officially sold ad space in the State of the Union. How fucking crass (pardon the french).
http://fortune.com/2018/01/30/state-of-the-union-live-stream-trump-donor/

I wonder if he thinks it is actually a campaign rally and will try to get (well at least half of) the room to chant "Build the wall!"