Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 502014 times)

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5800 on: January 25, 2019, 12:41:32 PM »
Was it the pressure? Or was it simply because having a big televised State of the Union Address was more important to him than his wall?

Of course, I don't know. But I have a feeling the looming PR crisis of having the entire commercial aviation industry in total uproar -- which seemed like it was just about to happen, like literally today -- might have been the tipping point.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5801 on: January 25, 2019, 12:58:49 PM »
Was it the pressure? Or was it simply because having a big televised State of the Union Address was more important to him than his wall?

Of course, I don't know. But I have a feeling the looming PR crisis of having the entire commercial aviation industry in total uproar -- which seemed like it was just about to happen, like literally today -- might have been the tipping point.

Yeah, it would've spread. There was about to be delay upon delay, throughout the country.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5802 on: January 25, 2019, 01:15:16 PM »
Was it the pressure? Or was it simply because having a big televised State of the Union Address was more important to him than his wall?

I suspect it was more likely that the potential of air traffic disruption to Trump's personal flights to Florida for golf.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5803 on: January 25, 2019, 01:32:44 PM »
Was it the pressure? Or was it simply because having a big televised State of the Union Address was more important to him than his wall?

I suspect it was more likely that the potential of air traffic disruption to Trump's personal flights to Florida for golf.
AF1 has priority over all other planes and airspace within the US.  Nothing will disrupt DJT's trips down to Mar-a-Lago to golf "work". AF1 *causes* disruptions, every time and ever where it flies, particularly within a narrow airspace like Palm Beach.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5804 on: January 25, 2019, 01:43:21 PM »
Oh, what will Carlson, Coulter and Limbaugh say about this?

OtherJen

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5805 on: January 25, 2019, 01:50:23 PM »
Oh, what will Carlson, Coulter and Limbaugh say about this?

From Ann Coulter’s Twitter feed:

Quote
Good news for George Herbert Walker Bush: As of today, he is no longer the biggest wimp ever to serve as President of the United States.

I predict that in 3 weeks, we’ll be right back where we started.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5806 on: January 25, 2019, 01:54:57 PM »
Oh, what will Carlson, Coulter and Limbaugh say about this?
For fun, I went and looked at the Fox News comments section. There were some good quips about spelunker in chief, caveman, looking for Batman (aka, bat cave), etc.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5807 on: January 25, 2019, 02:05:42 PM »
Wait a minute... I just looked at the calendar.  3 weeks from now is Feb 14th.  Could another shutdown seriously start on Valentine's Day??!

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5808 on: January 25, 2019, 02:15:01 PM »
Wait a minute... I just looked at the calendar.  3 weeks from now is Feb 14th.  Could another shutdown seriously start on Valentine's Day??!
Nothing says "I love you" like a government shutdown over 0.1% of the federal budget.

thd7t

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5809 on: January 25, 2019, 02:18:04 PM »
I keep reading people saying that 3 weeks from now is the declaration of emergency.  He's going to be livid about this.  It's possible that Sean Hannity will stick with him and sooth his ego or that delivering the SOTU will make him feel all better.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5810 on: January 25, 2019, 02:21:15 PM »
Wait a minute... I just looked at the calendar.  3 weeks from now is Feb 14th.  Could another shutdown seriously start on Valentine's Day??!
The clock runs out on Friday the 15th.

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5811 on: January 25, 2019, 02:31:14 PM »
Wait a minute... I just looked at the calendar.  3 weeks from now is Feb 14th.  Could another shutdown seriously start on Valentine's Day??!
Nothing says "I love you" like a government shutdown over 0.1% of the federal budget.

It's not about the percentage of the budget - it's for the specific appropriation of the funds.  An equal amount was offered for border security.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5812 on: January 25, 2019, 02:37:30 PM »
Wait a minute... I just looked at the calendar.  3 weeks from now is Feb 14th.  Could another shutdown seriously start on Valentine's Day??!
Nothing says "I love you" like a government shutdown over 0.1% of the federal budget.

It's not about the percentage of the budget - it's for the specific appropriation of the funds.  An equal amount was offered for border security.
Nothing says "I love you" like a government shutdown over 0.1% of the federal budget. an idea with so little support that the Senate bill with no funding for it prior to the shutdown had overwhelming support (right up until Trump threw a fit).

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5813 on: January 25, 2019, 02:50:22 PM »
It's not about the percentage of the budget - it's for the specific appropriation of the funds.  An equal amount was offered for border security.
Nothing says "I love you" like a government shutdown over 0.1% of the federal budget. an idea with so little support that the Senate bill with no funding for it prior to the shutdown had overwhelming support (right up until Trump threw a fit).
And what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5814 on: January 25, 2019, 02:55:14 PM »
It's not about the percentage of the budget - it's for the specific appropriation of the funds.  An equal amount was offered for border security.
Nothing says "I love you" like a government shutdown over 0.1% of the federal budget. an idea with so little support that the Senate bill with no funding for it prior to the shutdown had overwhelming support (right up until Trump threw a fit).
And what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

I have it on very good authority (the best really) that Mexico will be paying for the wall.  So why should it be part of the budget?

Dabnasty

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5815 on: January 25, 2019, 03:01:15 PM »
It's not about the percentage of the budget - it's for the specific appropriation of the funds.  An equal amount was offered for border security.
Nothing says "I love you" like a government shutdown over 0.1% of the federal budget. an idea with so little support that the Senate bill with no funding for it prior to the shutdown had overwhelming support (right up until Trump threw a fit).
And what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

I think there are a number of discussions about this elsewhere on the forum, but that's not really the issue.

A bill with no wall funding had unanimous support before Trump threw a fit. If congress gave him what he wanted for throwing a fit and holding unrelated government functions hostage, what kind of precedent does that set?

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5816 on: January 25, 2019, 03:04:53 PM »
It's not about the percentage of the budget - it's for the specific appropriation of the funds.  An equal amount was offered for border security.
Nothing says "I love you" like a government shutdown over 0.1% of the federal budget. an idea with so little support that the Senate bill with no funding for it prior to the shutdown had overwhelming support (right up until Trump threw a fit).
And what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

I have it on very good authority (the best really) that Mexico will be paying for the wall.  So why should it be part of the budget?

Reason one of literally dozens.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5817 on: January 25, 2019, 03:07:22 PM »
And what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?
I have it on very good authority (the best really) that Mexico will be paying for the wall.  So why should it be part of the budget?
Reason one of literally dozens.
Excellent non sequiturs, but other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

ETA: and other than the wall he is proposing is taller than the existing fence.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2019, 03:09:59 PM by MDM »

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5818 on: January 25, 2019, 03:10:48 PM »
And what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?
I have it on very good authority (the best really) that Mexico will be paying for the wall.  So why should it be part of the budget?
Reason one of literally dozens.
Excellent non sequiturs, but other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

Huh. Did I say "it was Trump's idea"? Or did you just assume that because it's easier and more fun for you than actually believing someone on the left might be able to think critically?

I'm guessing I know the answer to that one.

Here. An article by the conservative Cato Institute.

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/why-wall-wont-work

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5819 on: January 25, 2019, 04:05:39 PM »
And what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?
I have it on very good authority (the best really) that Mexico will be paying for the wall.  So why should it be part of the budget?
Reason one of literally dozens.
Excellent non sequiturs, but other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

Huh. Did I say "it was Trump's idea"? Or did you just assume that because it's easier and more fun for you than actually believing someone on the left might be able to think critically?

I'm guessing I know the answer to that one.

Here. An article by the conservative Cato Institute.

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/why-wall-wont-work
Oh, I wasn't assuming anything - just asking what [people think] is so terrible about having a wall for border security?  Your reply here gives some reasonable reasons.  Before that, ....

One can find pro/con reasons for practically any undertaking.  For the border wall, most of the reasonable (as opposed to "it's immoral", etc.) cons can be segregated into "it won't work" or "it will be difficult and expensive".  If one believes "it won't work", then spending any money on it makes no sense.  If one believes "it will be difficult and expensive" then the 0.1% of the federal budget becomes pertinent.

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5820 on: January 25, 2019, 04:13:48 PM »
And what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?
I have it on very good authority (the best really) that Mexico will be paying for the wall.  So why should it be part of the budget?
Reason one of literally dozens.
Excellent non sequiturs, but other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

Huh. Did I say "it was Trump's idea"? Or did you just assume that because it's easier and more fun for you than actually believing someone on the left might be able to think critically?

I'm guessing I know the answer to that one.

Here. An article by the conservative Cato Institute.

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/why-wall-wont-work
Oh, I wasn't assuming anything - just asking what [people think] is so terrible about having a wall for border security?  Your reply here gives some reasonable reasons.  Before that, ....

One can find pro/con reasons for practically any undertaking.  For the border wall, most of the reasonable (as opposed to "it's immoral", etc.) cons can be segregated into "it won't work" or "it will be difficult and expensive".  If one believes "it won't work", then spending any money on it makes no sense.  If one believes "it will be difficult and expensive" then the 0.1% of the federal budget becomes pertinent.

There's also the whole "forcibly seizing land from US citizens to build a wall that most of the US doesn't want" thing.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5821 on: January 25, 2019, 04:33:21 PM »
MDM: "Other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?"

Also MDM: "Oh, I wasn't assuming anything."

You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, MDM, at least own it.

dividendman

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5822 on: January 25, 2019, 04:33:45 PM »
Oh, I wasn't assuming anything - just asking what [people think] is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

I guess I'm confused on how it helps border security. Are there examples of x, y, z things happening and if a wall was there they wouldn't happen?

And if there are such examples, why is the US only considering a wall on the Southern border? Why not the northern one? What about the ships that land on the shores? You can put a wall in the water too so boats can't come. Alaska's borders seem wide open, too.

Perhaps an Israeli style "iron dome" system should also be put on the southern and northern border and coasts so that drones and low-flying aircraft can't get in.

What about the fact that most illegal immigration is from immigrants who come legally initially? Why don't we implant chips in legal immigrants so we know if they overstay their visa and we can track them and get ICE to easily deport them if they overstay?

Why aren't all of these things on the table? Why this focus on just the one wall?

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5823 on: January 25, 2019, 04:50:06 PM »
MDM: "Other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?"

Also MDM: "Oh, I wasn't assuming anything."

You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, MDM, at least own it.
Own what?

I would hope the MMM community wouldn't be so lowbrow as to oppose something just because it is Trump's idea.  That would be no different from anyone who opposed something just because it was Obama's idea.

Appears you are assuming things about my assumptions that aren't true. ;)

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5824 on: January 25, 2019, 04:51:55 PM »
MDM: "Other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?"

Also MDM: "Oh, I wasn't assuming anything."

You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, MDM, at least own it.
Own what?

I would hope the MMM community wouldn't be so lowbrow as to oppose something just because it is Trump's idea.  That would be no different from anyone who opposed something just because it was Obama's idea.

Appears you are assuming things about my assumptions that aren't true. ;)

Uh-huh.

*eyeroll*

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5825 on: January 25, 2019, 04:53:20 PM »
What about the fact that most illegal immigration is from immigrants who come legally initially?
Excellent point.  More attention to employer verification of status would be a reasonable thing.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5826 on: January 25, 2019, 04:54:01 PM »
MDM: "Other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?"

Also MDM: "Oh, I wasn't assuming anything."

You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, MDM, at least own it.
Own what?

I would hope the MMM community wouldn't be so lowbrow as to oppose something just because it is Trump's idea.  That would be no different from anyone who opposed something just because it was Obama's idea.

Appears you are assuming things about my assumptions that aren't true. ;)

Uh-huh.

*eyeroll*
You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, Kris, at least own it. :)

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5827 on: January 25, 2019, 05:25:29 PM »
MDM: "Other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?"

Also MDM: "Oh, I wasn't assuming anything."

You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, MDM, at least own it.
Own what?

I would hope the MMM community wouldn't be so lowbrow as to oppose something just because it is Trump's idea.  That would be no different from anyone who opposed something just because it was Obama's idea.

Appears you are assuming things about my assumptions that aren't true. ;)

Uh-huh.

*eyeroll*
You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, Kris, at least own it. :)

Good lord.

You're really bad at this.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5828 on: January 25, 2019, 05:30:06 PM »
MDM: "Other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?"

Also MDM: "Oh, I wasn't assuming anything."

You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, MDM, at least own it.
Own what?

I would hope the MMM community wouldn't be so lowbrow as to oppose something just because it is Trump's idea.  That would be no different from anyone who opposed something just because it was Obama's idea.

Appears you are assuming things about my assumptions that aren't true. ;)

Uh-huh.

*eyeroll*
You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, Kris, at least own it. :)

Good lord.

You're really bad at this.
Never made it a mission in life to excel at internet snark.  I can live with not being good at that. ;)

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5829 on: January 25, 2019, 05:34:27 PM »
MDM: "Other than "it was Trump's idea" what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?"

Also MDM: "Oh, I wasn't assuming anything."

You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, MDM, at least own it.
Own what?

I would hope the MMM community wouldn't be so lowbrow as to oppose something just because it is Trump's idea.  That would be no different from anyone who opposed something just because it was Obama's idea.

Appears you are assuming things about my assumptions that aren't true. ;)

Uh-huh.

*eyeroll*
You can't make this stuff up. Seriously, Kris, at least own it. :)

Good lord.

You're really bad at this.
Never made it a mission in life to excel at internet snark.  I can live with not being good at that. ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teIj7fak6eU

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5830 on: January 25, 2019, 05:43:58 PM »
@MDM - regarding funding more border wall...  honestly whether we build a few dozen additional miles of barrier along the US/Mexico border isn't a big deal for me.  We already have some 700 miles (out of ~2100) with some kind of barrier so it isn't like its a novel concept. There's probably some sections where more physical infrastructure might make sense.  At the same time there's large stretches of our southern border where building a wall would be a large waste of money. Overall the idea of building a 2,000+ mile concrete/steel-slat wall would be an ecological disaster and a giant waste of funds - but that's not what we are discussing here with ~$5B in total funding.

What does really irritate me is this whole shutting down the government to get funding for some large expense.  Want $5B for more wall (or border security, or whatever)?  Fine.  Draft legislation for an appropriations bill and have it debated, amended and voted on in congress.  Or better yet, put it in the annual budget which, btw, we haven't passed since 2016.  Government shutdowns should NOT be the way to get funding for projects.  The same thing goes for all the previous stuff we've passed under past CRs. I also object to making a whole bunch of people deliberately suffer (my family included) to extract concessions from the other side. 

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5831 on: January 25, 2019, 05:52:03 PM »
Well we could appropriate those funds to more pressing issues that likely would have a positive impact. Perhaps mental health. Investments in new technology and/or healthcare. Perhaps helping out veterans. I mean the list is endless.   

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5832 on: January 25, 2019, 06:03:45 PM »
Well we could appropriate those funds to more pressing issues that likely would have a positive impact. Perhaps mental health. Investments in new technology and/or healthcare. Perhaps helping out veterans. I mean the list is endless.   

Perfect.  Perhaps Nancy Pelosi should publicly vow to shut down the government unless she gets 5.7 billion dollars for veteran's mental health treatment programs?  Would that be the correct way to enact this particular policy change?

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5833 on: January 25, 2019, 06:40:01 PM »
What about the fact that most illegal immigration is from immigrants who come legally initially?
Excellent point.  More attention to employer verification of status would be a reasonable thing.

There's also the fact that the people in charge of border security would prefer to spend the border wall money on something else:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/us/politics/border-patrol-wall-immigration-trump-senate-democrats.html

Or that it's most likely to increase human tragedies associated with illegal immigration to the US without significantly reducing numbers:
https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/425514-border-wall-wont-stop-migrants-but-will-increase-use-of-smugglers

Or the fact that it wouldn't do anything to prevent terrorism:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/us/politics/trump-border-wall-terrorists.html



But my comment earlier wasn't that the wall was a bad idea because it was Donald Trump's idea.  It was pointing out that Trump promised that Americans wouldn't have to pay for the wall.  He said it over and over again.  Trump just singlehandedly shut down the US government in an attempt to force America to pay for the border wall that he told everyone Mexico would be paying for.  That's bullshit.  Time to call it.

ysette9

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5834 on: January 25, 2019, 06:47:26 PM »
This administration has completely broken my incredulity-o-meter. I demand a refund.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5835 on: January 25, 2019, 06:55:59 PM »
Now that Trump has agreed to re-open the government for three weeks in exchange for nothing, and conservative media is tearing him apart for it, and both the House and the Senate have approved the bill...

I think there's still about a 20% chance Trump vetoes the agreement he just announced this afternoon.

aspiringnomad

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5836 on: January 25, 2019, 08:29:20 PM »
Now that Trump has agreed to re-open the government for three weeks in exchange for nothing, and conservative media is tearing him apart for it, and both the House and the Senate have approved the bill...

I think there's still about a 20% chance Trump vetoes the agreement he just announced this afternoon.


Signed. And just like that, it's over...at least for a few weeks.

For all the criticism of the guy, he appears to know to eventually fold a losing hand. If I may keep with the poker analogy, I bet he couldn't believe he pulled an inside straight to win the presidency and is now hoping beyond hope that he draws an out on the river to win again in 2020 and remain immune from prosecution. Barring that, he's hoping for a gentleman's agreement to chop the pot by going away in exchange for his and his family's immunity, all while convincing his base that his presidency just drew a bad beat (or via tweet: "THE WERST LUCK IN US HISTORY!1!!!").

dividendman

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5837 on: January 25, 2019, 08:37:47 PM »
Now that the government is open again, I hope Pelosi still forbids Trump from stepping foot in the House until legislation is passed funding the government until the 2020 campaign season is in full swing - just because I hope Trump shuts it down then.

ysette9

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5838 on: January 25, 2019, 10:19:26 PM »
Is it too simplistic to think that Trump comes out of this weakened and Pelosi emboldened?

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5839 on: January 25, 2019, 11:07:54 PM »
Is it too simplistic to think that Trump comes out of this weakened and Pelosi emboldened?

Well, there's always a long game at play right?

Trump's people knew that he was pissing everyone off with the shutdown, and not getting any closer to an outcome he liked.  He couldn't get his wall funding when his own party controlled both chambers of Congress and he certainly wasn't going to get his wall funding after losing a landslide election, and I suspect he figured that out pretty quickly if he didn't already know it going into the shutdown in the first place.  So what's the play here?  Why fold now?

I think he's hoping to transfer blame to the new bipartisan commission.  He can just go to the republicans and say "you absolutely must get me my $5.7b for a border wall, and I won't sign any other deal" and that will effectively ensure the commission can't come to any agreement.  Otherwise, the bipartisan commission from Congress is just going to come up with something very like the bipartisan compromise those same people came up with back in December, which initially said he would sign and then threatened to veto.

So after he transfers blame to the bipartisan commission, and then ensures that the commission will fail, Trump can say "Look I tried to make Congress do it's job and they failed to keep government open, so now it has to shut down again."  That will give him the chance to blame Congress for shutdown round 2.

Either way he's not getting his $12b or even his $5b for a wall, so there has to be some other end game in mind.  Maybe he's hoping to make Pelosi and the democrats look bad if they can't get recreate the deal from the last month.  Maybe he's hoping to whip up some base support ahead of the next election, or at least convince democratic voters that congressional democrats are sort of equally corrupt and they should stay home on election day.  Ultimately, I suspect that Trump cares about the actual wall a whole lot less than he cares about winning reelection in 2020 so that he can die in office and never face prosecution.  If that's the case, then everything else is just prologue for the upcoming election. 

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5840 on: January 26, 2019, 10:42:08 AM »
For all the criticism of the guy, he appears to know to eventually fold a losing hand.

If there's anything that Trump has had enough experience to master, it's creating a losing situation through bad decision making and then folding.  Time and again through his history he has used the huge quantities of money he inherited from his father to do something, failed, and then declared bankruptcy.  He may well be one of the world's foremost masters of the failed deal.

GreenEggs

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5841 on: January 26, 2019, 11:56:25 AM »
"Ultimately, I suspect that Trump cares about the actual wall a whole lot less than he cares about winning reelection in 2020 so that he can die in office and never face prosecution.  If that's the case, then everything else is just prologue for the upcoming election. "


I was hoping he would die in office the first year.  You'd think somebody would have helped him along by now!

ysette9

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5842 on: January 26, 2019, 01:01:12 PM »
"Ultimately, I suspect that Trump cares about the actual wall a whole lot less than he cares about winning reelection in 2020 so that he can die in office and never face prosecution.  If that's the case, then everything else is just prologue for the upcoming election. "


I was hoping he would die in office the first year.  You'd think somebody would have helped him along by now!
President Pence is really not something I wish for.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5843 on: January 26, 2019, 01:24:56 PM »
Kris, whatever the YouTube video was: peace.  Out.  - MDM

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5844 on: January 26, 2019, 01:29:49 PM »
President Pence is really not something I wish for.

President Pence would be a policy disaster, but he would at least follow the law.  It would be a crushing defeat for progressive ideals and it might set us back to the 1950s, but at least the Union would endure. 

I'm merely supposing here, but I think Pence would not take bribes from foreign governments, or put children in cages, or fire the FBI director for doing his job, or use the US military to blockade the border, or destroy NATO so that Russia can invade its neighbors.  He would say a lot of horrible things about women and gays, but we could all have a good laugh at his ignorant backwardness and then go about the business of having a country.  Trump, by contrast, seems hell bent on tearing down everything America stands for.

So yea, I kind of wish for President Pence.  I'd also support Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or even a moderately competent mid-sized city mayor for President over Donald J. Trump.  Really, anybody who might actually care about the office in the way that Trump clearly does not, even if it was somebody with whom I have strong policy disagreements.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5845 on: January 26, 2019, 01:30:28 PM »
@MDM - regarding funding more border wall...  honestly whether we build a few dozen additional miles of barrier along the US/Mexico border isn't a big deal for me.  We already have some 700 miles (out of ~2100) with some kind of barrier so it isn't like its a novel concept. There's probably some sections where more physical infrastructure might make sense.  At the same time there's large stretches of our southern border where building a wall would be a large waste of money. Overall the idea of building a 2,000+ mile concrete/steel-slat wall would be an ecological disaster and a giant waste of funds - but that's not what we are discussing here with ~$5B in total funding.

What does really irritate me is this whole shutting down the government to get funding for some large expense.  Want $5B for more wall (or border security, or whatever)?  Fine.  Draft legislation for an appropriations bill and have it debated, amended and voted on in congress.  Or better yet, put it in the annual budget which, btw, we haven't passed since 2016.  Government shutdowns should NOT be the way to get funding for projects.  The same thing goes for all the previous stuff we've passed under past CRs. I also object to making a whole bunch of people deliberately suffer (my family included) to extract concessions from the other side.
Don't know if you ever harbor thoughts of running for congress, but if so don't bother: you're much too reasonable. :)

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5846 on: January 26, 2019, 02:38:03 PM »
@MDM,   I think a good question to ask is whether illegal immigration from the south is such a problem anyway. Research shows that the numbers of unauthorized immigrants in the US had fallen from a peak of about 12.2 million in 2007 to only 10.7 million in 2016. This is due to a great drop in the number of immigrants from Mexico, possibly due to increases in average incomes there.  Also falling birthrates and rising incomes in the three Northern Triangle nations of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, currently large sources of unauthorized immigration, suggest future drops in migrations from there, too.
http://www.pewresearch.org/topics/immigration-trends/

Therefore, if the number of illegal immigrants currently in the US is bearable and not a crisis, then it's not an emergency. It's only going to be getting better not worse. 

I wonder what could be accomplished by $5 billion applied towards speeding up immigration processing, and doing things like opening up offices in countries of origin so that people could find out BEFORE they leave their countries whether their asylum application has a chance. If you have a reasonable way for people to enter legally, most people will use that way.

Anecdotally, I personally know Guatemalans who are longing to go home to care for terminally ill parents south of the border but afraid to because they would not be able to return to work here and rejoin family who are legal residents here.  It's a terrible situation.  Making it easier for "unskilled" workers to work here and exit/re-enter would probably mean more temporary workers who take advantage of higher wages here but keep their home bases in their home countries, rather than bring their families here.  The hard border means that people come here and stay, rather than come when jobs are available and leave when jobs are few.

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5847 on: January 26, 2019, 02:45:39 PM »
@MDM,   I think a good question to ask is whether illegal immigration from the south is such a problem anyway. Research shows that the numbers of unauthorized immigrants in the US had fallen from a peak of about 12.2 million in 2007 to only 10.7 million in 2016. This is due to a great drop in the number of immigrants from Mexico, possibly due to increases in average incomes there.

Wasn't this one of the goals for NAFTA, to even things out a bit?  The rising tide lifts all boats idea?

Poundwise

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5848 on: January 26, 2019, 02:50:56 PM »
@RetiredAt63  Indeed yes!

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On another subject, people have started to do their taxes.  A number of voters in high SALT and high property value regions are going to notice that their taxes are substantially, painfully higher this year.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5849 on: January 26, 2019, 03:31:41 PM »
It's not about the percentage of the budget - it's for the specific appropriation of the funds.  An equal amount was offered for border security.
Nothing says "I love you" like a government shutdown over 0.1% of the federal budget. an idea with so little support that the Senate bill with no funding for it prior to the shutdown had overwhelming support (right up until Trump threw a fit).
And what is so terrible about having a wall for border security?

Nothing really. Except Trump turning it into a symbolic boondoggle. Seriously, a wall isn't what's opposed here. It's the rhetoric, the divisiveness, the hypocrisy, the antagoism. Surely the dealmaker in charge could have figured out how to get his wall without calling Mexicans a bunch of raping murderers. Trump himself is what's the probkem. Think a guy who's been hiring illegals for decades really gives a shit about American wages and jobs or terrorism?! Lol. More terrorists have come through Canada than the Mexican border. More drugs were confiscated through the Coast Guard than any other department, shutting down the govt really affected them, for a stupid border wall that isn't going to do squat. Trump's racism, abortion hating, LBGQT hating, and gun loving is a recent phenomena-he was actually a pragmatic kinda guy till the far right got a hold of him. Fighting the wall and neutering this spineless dumbass is the best thing any politician can do for the country.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 03:38:39 PM by Johnez »