Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 447025 times)

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5600 on: January 09, 2019, 03:25:45 PM »
The Mueller investigation seems to be uncovering a lot of issues that would fall under RICO statutes (money laundering, fraud, etc). These types of issues can (and often do) lead to asset forfeiture. If brought as civil suits, these forfeitures could proceed without having to bring a suit directly against the president. A civil forfeiture would be brought against an asset as having been used in an illegal transaction. This is an interesting twist because it could lead to forfeiture of Trump Org assets without violating the "no indictments against a sitting president" policy at DOJ. I speculate that that scenario would spur a tweetstorm the likes of which we have not ever seen... followed shortly by a constitutional crisis that would make the Saturday Night Massacre look like sunday brunch.

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5601 on: January 09, 2019, 09:10:24 PM »
Have we just reached our saturation point and we just don't give a %@#%@# anymore?  That might be great.

No, I'm just slowly coming to the realization that Trump is small potatoes.  There are larger problems in the works, and the fate of one overweight orange con man just doesn't seem that important anymore.  There are important policy decisions being made, and Trump is mostly a side show to that work.  There are real criminal enterprises attempting to influence those policy decisions, and Trump is just a pawn in that game.  Whether he goes to jail or not after losing a legit election probably doesn't matter much.

Yep agree. He does not have the brain power to understand that he is easily swayed one way or another. Look at how Fox News say something and it influences his decisions.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5602 on: January 10, 2019, 09:12:34 AM »
Trump is not small potatoes. Making him our President affects all important public issues because of the regulatory state that we have created and entrusted to that office.

I think interest in this thread is dying because it's crystallizing that Trump will make it to the 2020 election as a conventional candidate, running for re-election and enjoying the support of his party, although he will probably have to dispatch primary challengers as HW and Ford before him did. Beating an incumbent President is far from certain.

Installing Barr as Attorney General and booting out Rosenstein (did anyone notice that announcement happening within a few hours of the much-hyped immigration speeches?) pretty much mean that the Mueller investigation will no longer be a threat to Trump.

jrhampt

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5603 on: January 10, 2019, 09:19:35 AM »
I agree that the president of the United States is not small potatoes.  Im not entirely convinced hell make it to 2020, though - I think he has a 50/50 shot.  Now that the Democrats have the House, well be seeing a lot more investigation, and we are seeing more news about his campaign coordinating with Russian intelligence to get him elected.  Combined with the negative effects of the shutdown and the trade war on the economy, he may start to lose support from his base.  Certainly if we end up in a recession before 2020, I think he could lose enough republican support to get him in trouble.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5604 on: January 10, 2019, 09:48:57 AM »
Trump is not small potatoes. Making him our President affects all important public issues because of the regulatory state that we have created and entrusted to that office.

I think interest in this thread is dying because it's crystallizing that Trump will make it to the 2020 election as a conventional candidate, running for re-election and enjoying the support of his party, although he will probably have to dispatch primary challengers as HW and Ford before him did. Beating an incumbent President is far from certain.

Installing Barr as Attorney General and booting out Rosenstein (did anyone notice that announcement happening within a few hours of the much-hyped immigration speeches?) pretty much mean that the Mueller investigation will no longer be a threat to Trump.

I wouldn't write Mueller off just yet.  I think the portents are saying that Mueller has kept his own enquiries on collusion strictly limited to the Trump campaign and transition, that his final report will find conspiracy (not necessarily Trump personally but certainly high up in his campaign) and that there will be significant arrests and indictments at the same time the report is sent to the Attorney-General.  I also think that Mueller will have found lots of other stickily criminal threads to pull on and will have passed them all on to the AG's district offices and to State Attorney-Generals as appropriate and will have found enough to keep them and the FBI happily engaged in criminal investigation and prosecution for years, probably including matters which will be devastating to the Trump children and the Trump Organisation.

Will all that be seen as sufficient to impeach Trump, along with whatever Mueller reports on obstruction?  Dunno, but Trump is currently doing his best to lose support in the Senate and in the country at large.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5605 on: January 10, 2019, 10:22:45 AM »

Installing Barr as Attorney General and booting out Rosenstein (did anyone notice that announcement happening within a few hours of the much-hyped immigration speeches?) pretty much mean that the Mueller investigation will no longer be a threat to Trump.

Curious why you think that Barr's appointment will limit any threat the Mueller investigation has on Trump.  From what I've seen at least several senators have come out saying that they are satisfied that he will not interfere or shut down the investigation, and I'd expect the democratically-controlled House to throw a fit if he tries. 

I'm also not convinced that installing Barr would bury what Mueller has already found out (and there seems to be a considerable amount of information that the special council's office has which has not been public). What would prevent congress from issuing a subpoena to testify for a special hearing, as was one with Comey, HRC, Sessions and countless others?

Pushing the investigation towards wrapping up quickly is one thing - suppressing all the information already collected will be much harder, I imagine.

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5606 on: January 10, 2019, 01:13:50 PM »
Trump is not small potatoes. Making him our President affects all important public issues because of the regulatory state that we have created and entrusted to that office.

I think interest in this thread is dying because it's crystallizing that Trump will make it to the 2020 election as a conventional candidate, running for re-election and enjoying the support of his party, although he will probably have to dispatch primary challengers as HW and Ford before him did. Beating an incumbent President is far from certain.

Installing Barr as Attorney General and booting out Rosenstein (did anyone notice that announcement happening within a few hours of the much-hyped immigration speeches?) pretty much mean that the Mueller investigation will no longer be a threat to Trump.

I wouldn't write Mueller off just yet.  I think the portents are saying that Mueller has kept his own enquiries on collusion strictly limited to the Trump campaign and transition, that his final report will find conspiracy (not necessarily Trump personally but certainly high up in his campaign) and that there will be significant arrests and indictments at the same time the report is sent to the Attorney-General.  I also think that Mueller will have found lots of other stickily criminal threads to pull on and will have passed them all on to the AG's district offices and to State Attorney-Generals as appropriate and will have found enough to keep them and the FBI happily engaged in criminal investigation and prosecution for years, probably including matters which will be devastating to the Trump children and the Trump Organisation.

Will all that be seen as sufficient to impeach Trump, along with whatever Mueller reports on obstruction?  Dunno, but Trump is currently doing his best to lose support in the Senate and in the country at large.

+1. I can not wait to see what Mueller and his team has found.

True that beating an incumbent President is far from certain but I hope he will pissed off more people in the next 2 years to ensure he will not be reelected. Lets see what else he can do beside shutting down the government...

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5607 on: January 11, 2019, 05:58:33 AM »
This should be surprising to no one, but here we are (from NBC News):

Government shutdown stops FDA food safety inspections


I agree Jen this freaks me out.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5608 on: January 11, 2019, 06:23:08 AM »
This should be surprising to no one, but here we are (from NBC News):

Government shutdown stops FDA food safety inspections


I agree Jen this freaks me out.

Yes.  Just take a look at what's been going on in the National Parks and translate that to food processing facilities.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5609 on: January 11, 2019, 07:44:11 AM »
Since it takes a week to a few from food being processed to being on shelves to being in our homes, if there are untoward effects we won't see them immediately.
I think I might skip eating meat starting a week or so from now, until the shutdown is over. I've seen the footage when there ARE active food inspections going on.

GreenEggs

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5610 on: January 11, 2019, 07:51:10 AM »
Since it takes a week to a few from food being processed to being on shelves to being in our homes, if there are untoward effects we won't see them immediately.
I think I might skip eating meat starting a week or so from now, until the shutdown is over. I've seen the footage when there ARE active food inspections going on.


You can buy more index funds with the savings too.  Let the shutdown encourage more savings, the mustachian way.  ;)

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5611 on: January 11, 2019, 08:09:47 AM »
Since it takes a week to a few from food being processed to being on shelves to being in our homes, if there are untoward effects we won't see them immediately.
I think I might skip eating meat starting a week or so from now, until the shutdown is over. I've seen the footage when there ARE active food inspections going on.

I'm less worried about meat than I am about produce, though there is reason to be concerned with both.  There are all sorts of regulations about when you can pick crops following various fertilizing and pesticide spraying, not to mention packing and processing and that is all monitored by (you guessed it) federal scientists working for the USDA.  It isn't even that plants won't follow normal operating proceedures (most will) - but that all the routine lab testing that's designed to detect a problem before it gets to the consumer isn't getting done.

Meat might take a few weeks to reach grocery store shelves, but a lot of the produce gets there in 3-5 days.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5612 on: January 11, 2019, 08:53:06 AM »
not to mention packing and processing and that is all monitored by (you guessed it) federal scientists working for the USDA.

At least in the industries I've dealt with around here, the "regulatory" function of the USDA is mostly a joke.  Remember that USDA is one of those "dual mandate" agencies, which is supposed to both ensure safe operation of agriculture but also promote American agriculture.  They run the crop insurance programs designed to maintain high prices, for example.  They buy advertising and lobbying to promote specific products.  Those same federal scientists that oversee pesticide application limits are also offering advice to farmers on how to improve yields and increase profits.

As you can probably imagine, increasing profits and ensuring safe and environmentally friendly business practices are often contradictory goals.  The dept of ag tries to do both, which often leads to their "regulatory" function being relegated to posting official guidelines on the internet, but then not doing any enforcement of those guidelines.  They like to call it "best management practices" (BMPs) but it's not like there are inspectors out there routinely issuing fines to the very people they're trying to make as profitable as possible.  They understand that farmers are out to make money, and are going to ignore much of their BMP advice if it improves the bottom line.

I've also met some really committed USDA scientists who honestly cared about the regulatory function of their agency.  Without exception, they were frustrated with Ag's inability to address well known ongoing abuses.

Without going into too much detail, it's not just Ag and it's not just the feds that have this problem.  It's a common conservative tactic when finally forced to accept that regulations are a necessity, to fold that regulatory authority into an agency that also has a pro-industry mandate.  Every single natural resource agency I ever worked with was keenly aware of this problem.  It's one of the curses of government work, for academically-minded individuals.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5613 on: January 11, 2019, 09:11:45 AM »
i hear you about the dual-mandates (or dueling mandates, as we like ot say).  In a previous career I worked with the National Forestry Service, born out of Teddy Roosevelt's conservation initiatives, has  congressionally mandated duties to both preserve the nation's forests for current and future generations, and to assist with 'resource extraction' in these same forests with private companies.

Guess what the National Forestry Service spends more than half its annual budget on? 
Spoiler: show
Roads.  Specifically logging roads.


Getting back to the USDA - it's not the BMPs that I'm concerned with during the shutdown - those will largely be followed more or less the same is they were before.  It's the lack of spot-testing for things like E. coli, which often identifies contaminated crops before they reach the consumer.  Guess what the de-facto detection method now is?  CDC compiled data of hospital admittance records.

wbranch

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5614 on: January 11, 2019, 09:29:09 AM »
i hear you about the dual-mandates (or dueling mandates, as we like ot say).  In a previous career I worked with the National Forestry Service, born out of Teddy Roosevelt's conservation initiatives, has  congressionally mandated duties to both preserve the nation's forests for current and future generations, and to assist with 'resource extraction' in these same forests with private companies.

Guess what the National Forestry Service spends more than half its annual budget on?  Roads.  Specifically logging roads.

Getting back to the USDA - it's not the BMPs that I'm concerned with during the shutdown - those will largely be followed more or less the same is they were before.  It's the lack of spot-testing for things like E. coli, which often identifies contaminated crops before they reach the consumer.  Guess what the de-facto detection method now is?  CDC compiled data of hospital admittance records.


Are logging roads separated from "regular" forest roads in that half their budget number? Or is it the whole road system that people also use for recreational access to lakes, rivers, wilderness areas, campgrounds, dispersed camping, etc? Also, when I searched online the amount for roads in the FY18 budget is 2%? https://www.fs.fed.us/sites/default/files/usfs-fy18-budget-overview.pdf




partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5615 on: January 11, 2019, 10:08:35 AM »
Since it takes a week to a few from food being processed to being on shelves to being in our homes, if there are untoward effects we won't see them immediately.
I think I might skip eating meat starting a week or so from now, until the shutdown is over. I've seen the footage when there ARE active food inspections going on.

I'm less worried about meat than I am about produce, though there is reason to be concerned with both.  There are all sorts of regulations about when you can pick crops following various fertilizing and pesticide spraying, not to mention packing and processing and that is all monitored by (you guessed it) federal scientists working for the USDA.  It isn't even that plants won't follow normal operating proceedures (most will) - but that all the routine lab testing that's designed to detect a problem before it gets to the consumer isn't getting done.

Meat might take a few weeks to reach grocery store shelves, but a lot of the produce gets there in 3-5 days.

Thanks, that's good to know. I have a friend whose friend works for the  FDA? USDA? inspecting food at the border. At least at this moment she is still working (without pay).

GreenEggs

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5616 on: January 11, 2019, 01:03:56 PM »
i hear you about the dual-mandates (or dueling mandates, as we like ot say).  In a previous career I worked with the National Forestry Service, born out of Teddy Roosevelt's conservation initiatives, has  congressionally mandated duties to both preserve the nation's forests for current and future generations, and to assist with 'resource extraction' in these same forests with private companies.

Guess what the National Forestry Service spends more than half its annual budget on? 
Spoiler: show
Roads.  Specifically logging roads.


Getting back to the USDA - it's not the BMPs that I'm concerned with during the shutdown - those will largely be followed more or less the same is they were before.  It's the lack of spot-testing for things like E. coli, which often identifies contaminated crops before they reach the consumer.  Guess what the de-facto detection method now is?  CDC compiled data of hospital admittance records.


My MIL, who is a retired public health nurse that worked with the CDC, just pointed out that the shutdown, and Trump cuts in general, are a major problem for the jobs we depend on the CDC to preform.  She said there's normally teams "with their bags packed 24/7/365" to jump on the next jet to deal with health related emergencies, but those teams aren't ready 24/7 now.  She said instead of being on the scene in a few hours it might take a day or two to assemble a group and get them to the outbreak.  That could make a huge difference in how far an outbreak can spread.


Thank you Mr. Trump. 

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5617 on: January 11, 2019, 01:50:17 PM »
i hear you about the dual-mandates (or dueling mandates, as we like ot say).  In a previous career I worked with the National Forestry Service, born out of Teddy Roosevelt's conservation initiatives, has  congressionally mandated duties to both preserve the nation's forests for current and future generations, and to assist with 'resource extraction' in these same forests with private companies.

Guess what the National Forestry Service spends more than half its annual budget on? 
Spoiler: show
Roads.  Specifically logging roads.


Getting back to the USDA - it's not the BMPs that I'm concerned with during the shutdown - those will largely be followed more or less the same is they were before.  It's the lack of spot-testing for things like E. coli, which often identifies contaminated crops before they reach the consumer.  Guess what the de-facto detection method now is?  CDC compiled data of hospital admittance records.


My MIL, who is a retired public health nurse that worked with the CDC, just pointed out that the shutdown, and Trump cuts in general, are a major problem for the jobs we depend on the CDC to preform.  She said there's normally teams "with their bags packed 24/7/365" to jump on the next jet to deal with health related emergencies, but those teams aren't ready 24/7 now.  She said instead of being on the scene in a few hours it might take a day or two to assemble a group and get them to the outbreak.  That could make a huge difference in how far an outbreak can spread.


Thank you Mr. Trump.

There's never been a better time to be a terrorist.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5618 on: January 11, 2019, 02:13:40 PM »
No doubt about it, Trump is in the wrong here. But I really blame Congressional Republicans. An appropriations bill passed the Senate 100-0 without "wall funding" a few weeks ago, but now Mitch McConnell refuses to bring this bill back, and they act like it's not even possible for Congress to override a presidential veto. It is entirely possible and right that they do so, but they're just chicken about Trump and his rabid base using it as ammo to primary them from the right.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5619 on: January 11, 2019, 02:19:51 PM »
Yes. They could pass a budget tomorrow if they chose to. Trump is in the wrong, but the Republicans are supporting the shutdown by their actions.

Little Aussie Battler

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5620 on: January 11, 2019, 02:23:16 PM »
At this point, will Trump's largest impact on America be 3 appointments to the Supreme Court?

That would possibly do more to re-shape your country than anything else he has done or said.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5621 on: January 11, 2019, 02:28:37 PM »
Yes. They could pass a budget tomorrow if they chose to. Trump is in the wrong, but the Republicans are supporting the shutdown by their actions.

Specifically I blame Mitch McConnell as the Senate majority leader, because he is the person who has refused to bring the (unanimously passed, previously) bill up for a vote because he knows it would highlight that Trump is solely responsible.  The Senate could absolutely pass the border security bill that the House has already passed, which re-opens the government, without Trump's consent.  Mitch doesn't want to, because it would be a political black eye for Trump to let congress do its job.  He's maintaining the illusion that the Legislature exists to serve the whims of the Executive, which is not how these things are supposed to work if you read the Constitution.

I wonder what Ted Cruz thinks about this arrangement?  He's always harping on the Constitution and how we should strictly adhere to every letter of it exactly as written and intended by the founding fathers, and yet here is profoundly abdicating his responsibility as laid out in the Constitution for purposes of protecting a President who nicknamed him "Lyin' Ted".

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5622 on: January 11, 2019, 02:52:03 PM »
Yes. They could pass a budget tomorrow if they chose to. Trump is in the wrong, but the Republicans are supporting the shutdown by their actions.

Specifically I blame Mitch McConnell as the Senate majority leader, because he is the person who has refused to bring the (unanimously passed, previously) bill up for a vote because he knows it would highlight that Trump is solely responsible.  The Senate could absolutely pass the border security bill that the House has already passed, which re-opens the government, without Trump's consent.  Mitch doesn't want to, because it would be a political black eye for Trump to let congress do its job.  He's maintaining the illusion that the Legislature exists to serve the whims of the Executive, which is not how these things are supposed to work if you read the Constitution.

I wonder what Ted Cruz thinks about this arrangement?  He's always harping on the Constitution and how we should strictly adhere to every letter of it exactly as written and intended by the founding fathers, and yet here is profoundly abdicating his responsibility as laid out in the Constitution for purposes of protecting a President who nicknamed him "Lyin' Ted".

It's hard to believe that it's possible for one person to hold the entirety of the Senate hostage to his personal whims...but apparently that's what's happening now.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5623 on: January 11, 2019, 03:36:48 PM »
Trump is not small potatoes. Making him our President affects all important public issues because of the regulatory state that we have created and entrusted to that office.

I think interest in this thread is dying because it's crystallizing that Trump will make it to the 2020 election as a conventional candidate, running for re-election and enjoying the support of his party, although he will probably have to dispatch primary challengers as HW and Ford before him did. Beating an incumbent President is far from certain.

Installing Barr as Attorney General and booting out Rosenstein (did anyone notice that announcement happening within a few hours of the much-hyped immigration speeches?) pretty much mean that the Mueller investigation will no longer be a threat to Trump.

I wouldn't write Mueller off just yet.  I think the portents are saying that Mueller has kept his own enquiries on collusion strictly limited to the Trump campaign and transition, that his final report will find conspiracy (not necessarily Trump personally but certainly high up in his campaign) and that there will be significant arrests and indictments at the same time the report is sent to the Attorney-General.  I also think that Mueller will have found lots of other stickily criminal threads to pull on and will have passed them all on to the AG's district offices and to State Attorney-Generals as appropriate and will have found enough to keep them and the FBI happily engaged in criminal investigation and prosecution for years, probably including matters which will be devastating to the Trump children and the Trump Organisation.

Will all that be seen as sufficient to impeach Trump, along with whatever Mueller reports on obstruction?  Dunno, but Trump is currently doing his best to lose support in the Senate and in the country at large.

Even if Mueller gets Trump, I doubt the system can return to the way things were. With the Yellow Jacket protests in France, populism has now sprouted in most of the major democracies.

The forces that created Trump are still there. Removing Trump won't solve the problem.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5624 on: January 11, 2019, 06:20:28 PM »

My MIL, who is a retired public health nurse that worked with the CDC, just pointed out that the shutdown, and Trump cuts in general, are a major problem for the jobs we depend on the CDC to preform.  She said there's normally teams "with their bags packed 24/7/365" to jump on the next jet to deal with health related emergencies, but those teams aren't ready 24/7 now.  She said instead of being on the scene in a few hours it might take a day or two to assemble a group and get them to the outbreak.  That could make a huge difference in how far an outbreak can spread.


Thank you Mr. Trump.

So that's how the rage virus will spread.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5625 on: January 11, 2019, 08:49:42 PM »
She said there's normally teams "with their bags packed 24/7/365" to jump on the next jet to deal with health related emergencies, but those teams aren't ready 24/7 now.
What causes them not to be ready?

aspiringnomad

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5626 on: January 11, 2019, 10:10:21 PM »
Yes. They could pass a budget tomorrow if they chose to. Trump is in the wrong, but the Republicans are supporting the shutdown by their actions.

I wonder what Ted Cruz thinks about this arrangement?  He's always harping on the Constitution and how we should strictly adhere to every letter of it exactly as written and intended by the founding fathers, and yet here is profoundly abdicating his responsibility as laid out in the Constitution for purposes of protecting a President who nicknamed him "Lyin' Ted".

Cruz has long since come to terms with being a political eunuch. My guess is that despite just eeking out a win in November, he's already eyeing his Constitutional right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of a lucrative lobbyist gig.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5627 on: January 12, 2019, 04:09:10 AM »
Thomas Friedman summed up Trump and the spineless Republicans perfectly: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/thomas-friedman-say-without_us_5c397207e4b0922a21d514f7

GreenEggs

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5628 on: January 12, 2019, 08:49:46 AM »
She said there's normally teams "with their bags packed 24/7/365" to jump on the next jet to deal with health related emergencies, but those teams aren't ready 24/7 now.
What causes them not to be ready?




I think she said budget cuts.  Might have been policy changes too.  It's been since Trump took office. 


I was shocked that anyone would be stupid enough to dismantle something so important.  But, Trump is a shocker.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5629 on: January 12, 2019, 09:04:04 AM »
Thomas Friedman summed up Trump and the spineless Republicans perfectly: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/thomas-friedman-say-without_us_5c397207e4b0922a21d514f7


McConnnell as majority leader is refusing to put the necessary legislation before the Senate.  Is there any way that 3 or 4 Republicans could temporarily agree to vote with Schumer to make him majority leader until a spending Bill has been enacted and then go back to the Republicans?

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5630 on: January 12, 2019, 12:42:00 PM »
She said there's normally teams "with their bags packed 24/7/365" to jump on the next jet to deal with health related emergencies, but those teams aren't ready 24/7 now.
What causes them not to be ready?
I think she said budget cuts.  Might have been policy changes too.  It's been since Trump took office. 
I was shocked that anyone would be stupid enough to dismantle something so important.  But, Trump is a shocker.

Perhaps she was referring to the issue described in https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-to-scale-back-work-in-dozens-of-foreign-countries-amid-funding-worries-1516398717.  One excerpt:
Quote
The activities are funded mostly through a five-year supplemental package that was awarded to the CDC and other government agencies in fiscal 2015 to respond to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

The package included $582 million in funds to work with countries around the world after the Ebola crisis in 2014 and 2015. But that funding runs out at the end of fiscal 2019.

Couldn't find anything that said the CDC's regular budget (i.e., not the supplemental package referenced by that quote) for its Global Rapid Response Team has been cut.  But I only looked at the first few pages of google results....

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5631 on: January 12, 2019, 02:24:27 PM »
She said there's normally teams "with their bags packed 24/7/365" to jump on the next jet to deal with health related emergencies, but those teams aren't ready 24/7 now.
What causes them not to be ready?




I think she said budget cuts.  Might have been policy changes too.  It's been since Trump took office. 


I was shocked that anyone would be stupid enough to dismantle something so important.  But, Trump is a shocker.

I was shocked that anyone would be stupid enough to dismantle something so important.  But, Trump is stupid enough.

I fixed it for you.

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former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5633 on: January 13, 2019, 07:47:52 AM »
Trump is now saying he has an absolute right to use emergency powers to spend money on a border wall.


The UK got rid of its last absolute monarch while the US was still a collection of colonies.


Just saying.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5634 on: January 13, 2019, 09:38:42 AM »
Trump is now saying he has an absolute right to use emergency powers to spend money on a border wall.


The UK got rid of its last absolute monarch while the US was still a collection of colonies.


Just saying.

It'll get hit with lawsuits. There will be no wall unless the Democrats offer it in a deal.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5635 on: January 13, 2019, 09:51:21 AM »
It'll get hit with lawsuits. There will be no wall unless the Democrats offer it in a deal.

I'm not sure why they would, since Congress already worked out a deal in which republicans supported a deal that funds democratic priorities for border security without explicit wall funding. 

That's how Congress is supposed to work.  When they have more than 2/3 consensus, it's not supposed to matter what the president wants.  Setting the budget is not the president's job.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5636 on: January 13, 2019, 10:38:44 AM »
It'll get hit with lawsuits. There will be no wall unless the Democrats offer it in a deal.

I'm not sure why they would, since Congress already worked out a deal in which republicans supported a deal that funds democratic priorities for border security without explicit wall funding. 

That's how Congress is supposed to work.  When they have more than 2/3 consensus, it's not supposed to matter what the president wants.  Setting the budget is not the president's job.

The Senate Republicans won't go against Trump's wishes. As Trump hasn't left himself any room to maneuver, the only option is to offer the $5B in wall funding in return for...DACA and more immigration courts and anything else the Dems want. Trump can tweet about his success, Fox can tout "Build the wall," but the Dems are the real winners.

Trump is beholden to the nationalists and the "small government" crowd. One wants the wall really badly and the other doesn't care that the government is closed down.*


* Until the airports start closing.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5637 on: January 13, 2019, 10:56:24 AM »
* Until the airports start closing.

Well, that's certainly one strategy that congress could use if this thing drags on for months and months.  Eventually, the entire government will be unfunded again as this year's appropriations lapse, and they could refuse to pass any further budget bills for anything, including things that are currently funded like the military.  I don't think most people have really thought through what happens in six or nine or 18 months of this nonsense.

Personally, I don't think congress should get to pick and choose which agencies to fund and which to ignore.  Their job is to allocate funds to everyone, and if they want to allocate zero that's their prerogative but they need to pass a budget that says zero for those agencies, rather than letting them wither and die from neglect.  This whole practice of "well this agency tends to vote for my party so I'll fund them, but that agency supports my opponent so I'll take away their funding" is pure banana republic shenanigan bullshit.  It's corrupt.  It's immoral.  It's not what America is supposed to be about.

If they can't agree on a new budget, the old one should probably continue at last year's funding level, which amounts to a functional reduction in expenditures equivalent to the inflation rate.  Congress could make this the law by next week.  People who are legally required to work should be legally required to get paid, and I think the decision should be for 100% of employees at a time across the board.  Either every federal employee works and gets paid, or no federal employee works and none of them get paid.  That would be a much more effective pressure point to get Congress to find a compromise.  The current consequences of failure are too tiny to matter, it seems.  Adding a million people to the unemployment rolls doesn't seem to motivate congressional republicans.

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5638 on: January 13, 2019, 12:04:32 PM »

* Until the airports start closing.

Have they thought this through? (yes that is a rhetorical question).  I am flying to the US west coast soon and dreading it because I hope I can make it back home.  I have this night mare vision of having to take a train to my Canadian transfer city and then finally being able to fly home.  I would love to book another flight soon to see friends, but I am holding off.   

What is this doing to flight stats?  International tourism stats?  Not to mention the masses of goods moved via air freight.

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Inaya

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5640 on: January 13, 2019, 02:49:07 PM »

* Until the airports start closing.

Have they thought this through? (yes that is a rhetorical question).  I am flying to the US west coast soon and dreading it because I hope I can make it back home.  I have this night mare vision of having to take a train to my Canadian transfer city and then finally being able to fly home.  I would love to book another flight soon to see friends, but I am holding off.   

What is this doing to flight stats?  International tourism stats?  Not to mention the masses of goods moved via air freight.


This will impact a very small population, but organ transport could be impacted. Imagine getting the call that your lifesaving organ has been located only to find out that they couldn't get it to you in time because the airport shut down. I thought of this because I recently watched some organs get loaded onto the flight I was on. It's already difficult enough to get these organs where they need to go, as seen by a recent incident where a heart got left on the wrong flight.

Johnez

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5641 on: January 13, 2019, 03:35:54 PM »
And then there was this knuckle head: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/01/white-house-to-furloughed-workers-consider-it-a-free-vacation

The level of incompetence is finally matched....by the lack of empathy. Just wow.

oldtoyota

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5642 on: January 13, 2019, 03:41:43 PM »
This should be surprising to no one, but here we are (from NBC News):

Government shutdown stops FDA food safety inspections


I agree Jen this freaks me out.

Yes.  Just take a look at what's been going on in the National Parks and translate that to food processing facilities.

Is it possible the admin is being told by someone to destabilize the country this way? The shutdown creates fear in a variety of forms--food concerns, money concerns, safety and environmental concerns, etc.

I read Sarah Kendzior--she studies the rise of dictatorships--and she notes that Trump aims to consolidate power in the way China's "President" did and other dictators have. She says the shutdown is really about claiming control of the census because the census data affects voting districts.

Overall, these actions seem part of something bigger.



« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 04:12:30 PM by oldtoyota »

OtherJen

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5643 on: January 13, 2019, 03:49:39 PM »
This should be surprising to no one, but here we are (from NBC News):

Government shutdown stops FDA food safety inspections


I agree Jen this freaks me out.

Yes.  Just take a look at what's been going on in the National Parks and translate that to food processing facilities.

Is it possible the admin is being told by someone to destabilize the country this way? The shutdown creates fear in a variety of forms--food concerns, money concerns, safety and environmental concerns, etc.

I read Sarah Kendzior--she studies the rise of dictatorships--and she notes that Trump aims to consolidate power in the way the China's "President" did and other dictators have. She says the shutdown is really about claiming control of the census because the census data affects voting districts.

Overall, these actions seem part of something bigger.

It would explain why McConnell is blocking the Senate from functioning, assuming hes in on the fix. At this point, I dont assume anything is too far-fetched.

oldtoyota

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5644 on: January 13, 2019, 04:11:26 PM »
She said there's normally teams "with their bags packed 24/7/365" to jump on the next jet to deal with health related emergencies, but those teams aren't ready 24/7 now.
What causes them not to be ready?




I think she said budget cuts.  Might have been policy changes too.  It's been since Trump took office. 


I was shocked that anyone would be stupid enough to dismantle something so important.  But, Trump is a shocker.

Weird. If we dig into the "why," then my guess is this is to destabilize the US further.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5645 on: January 13, 2019, 04:18:59 PM »
She said there's normally teams "with their bags packed 24/7/365" to jump on the next jet to deal with health related emergencies, but those teams aren't ready 24/7 now.
What causes them not to be ready?
I think she said budget cuts.  Might have been policy changes too.  It's been since Trump took office. 
I was shocked that anyone would be stupid enough to dismantle something so important.  But, Trump is a shocker.
Weird. If we dig into the "why," then my guess is this is to destabilize the US further.
See the WSJ article linked previously for more details on "cut" vs. "expiration of temporary funding."

DreamFIRE

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5646 on: January 13, 2019, 08:37:36 PM »
And then there was this knuckle head: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/01/white-house-to-furloughed-workers-consider-it-a-free-vacation

The level of incompetence is finally matched....by the lack of empathy. Just wow.

Actually, that's what a federal worker friend of mine said - extra paid vacation, and one of the federal workers even mentioned the free vacation in the other thread about the federal shutdown.  Congress and Trump approved payment to all of the furloughed employees who are sitting at home not working.  They'll get paid late, but I would take that deal in a heartbeat to get extra paid vacation.

There are many non-federal workers affected by the shutdown and are losing income/business and won't "get paid" later like the federal workers.  Hopefully the democrats won't continue to obstruct for much longer so that these people can get back to work and so that more of my tax dollars won't go to paying people who are sitting at home.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5647 on: January 13, 2019, 10:29:40 PM »
And then there was this knuckle head: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/01/white-house-to-furloughed-workers-consider-it-a-free-vacation

The level of incompetence is finally matched....by the lack of empathy. Just wow.

Actually, that's what a federal worker friend of mine said - extra paid vacation, and one of the federal workers even mentioned the free vacation in the other thread about the federal shutdown.  Congress and Trump approved payment to all of the furloughed employees who are sitting at home not working.  They'll get paid late, but I would take that deal in a heartbeat to get extra paid vacation.

As would I. Unfortunately, most people don't have the savings to handle more than a month of no income.

Quote
Hopefully the democrats won't continue to obstruct for much longer so that these people can get back to work and so that more of my tax dollars won't go to paying people who are sitting at home.

Stop trolling.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5648 on: January 13, 2019, 11:13:14 PM »
Is it possible the admin is being told by someone to destabilize the country this way?

Nope, Trump can figure out for himself how to make a complete dog's breakfast of things, he has a long history of it. Why do you think the Russians wanted him in? You don't need to be a puppet-master if you throw the cat among the pigeons.

Step 1: find a narcissistic guy who's ruined almost everything he's touched and alienated everyone he's ever met.
Step 2: help him get elected to high office.
Step 3: do nothing to help or hinder him from then on, just let events take their natural course.

None of this would be an issue if American institutions were working as they were designed to - as they have in the past. Would Reagan have been able to get away with his Cabinet appointments not undergoing Congressional scrutiny by just declaring them "acting" positions indefinitely? Would Dubya have been able to get away with conducting foreign policy without consulting Cabinet? Would Bush I have been able to block budgets indefinitely, or would his own party Congresspeople have overruled him?

American institutions are failing. Trump is merely the wedge banged into the cracks of your Republic.


How long will people keep working without pay? How long can people do without these federal services? How long before states step in and take up the slack, taxing and providing services? How long can the shutdown go on for before things fall apart? Three months? Twelve? What if it's still going by the 2020 elections?


Will the US go the way of the SU? Before you answer: consider what the Soviet citizen would have said in 1989, and that 12 of 15 republics of the SU voted to keep the Union...

If you want to keep your Union, at the very least you must write to your Congressperson and get them to sort this out today.


« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 11:17:48 PM by Kyle Schuant »

OtherJen

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5649 on: January 14, 2019, 06:42:38 PM »
Somehow this is not from The Onion or Borowitz Report:

Trump greets Clemson Tigers with fast-food buffet of Wendy's, McDonald's, and Burger King as they celebrate their national championship

I suppose the next delegation from Central America will be served a buffet of Taco Bell's finest.