Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 539842 times)

rocketpj

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5500 on: December 24, 2018, 01:10:38 PM »
If Hilary Clinton had won the electoral college (fun fact, she won the election, just not the system).

1.  We would be exhausted after 2 years of constant Congressional 'inquiries' and 'inquests' and investigations into her 'wrongdoing'.

2.  We  would probably be at least partway through an impeachment process. 

3.  Everything happening in the world would be Clinton's fault - wars, stock market dips (but not upticks).  Any negotiations with foreign powers would be decried as hopelessly selling out America (see: Iran nuclear deal).

4.  Sadly, I doubt there would be a Mueller investigation - everyone would have immediately ignored Trump and everything about him the day after the election.

The well would be so very poisoned that the Republican majorities in Congress and the Senate would have grown in the midterms.  Chances are that whoever the Republicans found to run in 2020 would take it in a landslide.

At least in the current context the Republicans OWN full responsibility for the mess they have created.  We may have some hope of improvement in the next election - the mid-terms were a good start. 

That is of course assuming Trump doesn't get the world involved in a cataclysmic war to avoid being held responsible for anything.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5501 on: December 24, 2018, 05:04:34 PM »
I’m not so sure.  The opposition and hatred of Obama was intense by many on the right, and of Clinton in her SoS role - yet despite 9 investigations into Benghazi and all sorts of postering under a GOP controlled congress the government still carried out its basic functions.
I imagine a HRC president with a GOP president would have been pretty similar to Obama’s last term.  Vitriolic but functional.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5502 on: December 24, 2018, 05:07:10 PM »
Sadly, I think the lunacy described by RocketPJ is very likely.

Mr. Kris and I got our permits to carry and bought guns in part because we feared that a Hillary win would have Trumpistas out on the streets looking to gun down liberals.

Norioch

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5503 on: December 24, 2018, 07:29:58 PM »
If Hilary Clinton had won the electoral college (fun fact, she won the election, just not the system).

1.  We would be exhausted after 2 years of constant Congressional 'inquiries' and 'inquests' and investigations into her 'wrongdoing'.

2.  We  would probably be at least partway through an impeachment process. 

3.  Everything happening in the world would be Clinton's fault - wars, stock market dips (but not upticks).  Any negotiations with foreign powers would be decried as hopelessly selling out America (see: Iran nuclear deal).

4.  Sadly, I doubt there would be a Mueller investigation - everyone would have immediately ignored Trump and everything about him the day after the election.

The well would be so very poisoned that the Republican majorities in Congress and the Senate would have grown in the midterms.  Chances are that whoever the Republicans found to run in 2020 would take it in a landslide.

At least in the current context the Republicans OWN full responsibility for the mess they have created.  We may have some hope of improvement in the next election - the mid-terms were a good start. 

That is of course assuming Trump doesn't get the world involved in a cataclysmic war to avoid being held responsible for anything.

We'd also have a liberal majority on the Supreme Court for the first time in my lifetime, which would last for decades regardless of who wins the presidency going forward.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5504 on: December 25, 2018, 12:08:25 AM »
Consider the cost of WWII (80MM and over a trillion spent).
Yes but we won. In 5 years and 8 months. This one's taken three times longer already and we're losing. Once a trillion dollars could win a war against two Great Powers. Now it can't defeat some illiterate guys with AK-47s.


So our position is less like the Allies and more like the Axis. Except unlike them, if we give up we don't have to worry about suffering half a century of foreign military occupation and partition. The stakes then were high, now they are less so.


Quote
Consider what the next one would cost.    Consider the hundreds-of-thousands killed by Saddam and al-Assad each.  What are the costs of walking away?
You tell me.


Tell me: how much should we be willing to pay in years, lives and money? If we walk today, what precisely will be the cost in years, lives and money?


Everyone who was against the war is suddenly in favour of continuing it forever, just because it's Trump pulling people out. Of course, when Obama was pulling people out he was a traitor etc as well. Basically America loves war - well, so long as someone else is being killed and paying the bills. This is the reason conscription ended, since conscription spread the costs a bit too evenly for the middle class's tastes; the upper classes like Trump evaded responsibility, of course, but upper classes always do, that's the whole point of being upper class, you have all the rights and none of the responsibilities. And the working class have all the responsibilities and not many of the rights whatever happens. The only question is whether the middle class have to share the burden or not. So it was very smart to abolish conscription, it let the elites start endless foreign conflicts with impunity.


What cost are you willing to pay? Be precise, and show your workings.


Quote from: partygypsy
However, the Taliban is not exactly into power sharing or negotiation.
Neither were the Vietnamese Communists, but the West still let them have the south when we decided not to give any support in 1975 (a previous attempt in 1973 had been knocked back with massive US air support). At some point we in the West decided it just wasn't worth the trouble.


What cost are you willing to pay? Be precise, and show your workings.


Quote from: sol
We will still have the world's most capable military.
So long as it doesn't have to deal with illiterate guys with AK-47s.


What cost are you willing to pay? Be precise, and show your workings.

This is the MMM forum. It's supposed to be built on frugality: know how much you are willing to pay for each thing. Those who don't define a budget end up in massive debt with a bunch of shit they don't even want, let alone need. So you must define your budget. Because if you don't define it, the US will still be there in another 17 years and 2 months, after another 3 million dead, and another $2 trillion dollars (the price will go up because it costs more to lose a war than it used to).

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5505 on: December 25, 2018, 12:11:12 AM »
I think we are now at the point where we have to acknowledge that anyone spewing hate at Hillary Clinton in order to make Trump look good by comparison is a willing dupe of Putin's propaganda.
Keep it up! Comrade Vladimir wants you to fight amongst yourselves. You just keep on saying that anyone opposed to you is a TRAITOR TO THE COUNTRY!!! It's what Uncle Vlad wants. The more time and effort you spend abusing other Americans and calling them traitors, the less you have left to oppose Mother Russia!

Americans, fight each-other! Hate the Republicans! Hate the Democrats! Lock her up! Lock him up! Do it for Mother Russia!

Putin is playing America like a cheap fiddle.

marty998

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5506 on: December 25, 2018, 05:04:41 AM »

Kyle, it's Christmas. Go enjoy dinner with your family.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5507 on: December 25, 2018, 11:07:20 AM »
Christmas message Trump style...whine, whine, whine and spoil a 7 year old child's belief in Santa.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-christmas-message-whining-border-wall_us_5c225c60e4b0407e907e51ab

fuzzy math

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5508 on: December 25, 2018, 12:17:36 PM »
I try to stay optimistic, then I hear that Trump wants to fire the Fed Chief - It's like Trump has whatever the opposite of a 'Midas Touch' is.

Quote
Top West Wing economic advisers have warned Trump that firing Powell would only exacerbate the problem the President is ostensibly trying to solve: nose-diving markets. The unprecedented move would likely cause more turmoil.

The opposite of the Midas Touch is Stink Palm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuDQbDdrRO8

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5509 on: December 25, 2018, 12:24:02 PM »
China has not purchased soy beans from USA since November, instead they doubled the amount of seeds they bought last year from Brazil. Farmers are getting 12 billion in aid from USDA.

Guess the art of the deal didn't work so good...

https://qz.com/1506641/us-soybean-exports-to-china-dropped-to-zero-in-november/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo


fuzzy math

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5510 on: December 25, 2018, 12:33:16 PM »
I think we are now at the point where we have to acknowledge that anyone spewing hate at Hillary Clinton in order to make Trump look good by comparison is a willing dupe of Putin's propaganda.
Keep it up! Comrade Vladimir wants you to fight amongst yourselves. You just keep on saying that anyone opposed to you is a TRAITOR TO THE COUNTRY!!! It's what Uncle Vlad wants. The more time and effort you spend abusing other Americans and calling them traitors, the less you have left to oppose Mother Russia!

Americans, fight each-other! Hate the Republicans! Hate the Democrats! Lock her up! Lock him up! Do it for Mother Russia!

Putin is playing America like a cheap fiddle.

Strange that Putin is using British citizens to feign American citizenship to rile up the left vs right, dont'cha think?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5511 on: December 25, 2018, 12:53:38 PM »
I try to stay optimistic, then I hear that Trump wants to fire the Fed Chief - It's like Trump has whatever the opposite of a 'Midas Touch' is.

Quote
Top West Wing economic advisers have warned Trump that firing Powell would only exacerbate the problem the President is ostensibly trying to solve: nose-diving markets. The unprecedented move would likely cause more turmoil.
The opposite of the Midas Touch is Stink Palm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuDQbDdrRO8

Maybe Dieter was actually Donald... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ky5Y99wb_00

ysette9

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5512 on: December 25, 2018, 05:04:43 PM »
There are different levels of FBI checks. One is akin to fact checking someone's resume. Unless there is a reason, they don't dig (look at tax returns, interview people, etc).
Since the president will be getting access to Top Secret SCI information, i think it is reasonable for any party nominee to first pass this background check.

I agree that Trump would have failed this under any normal circumstances. The fact that he and his family got clearances makes a mockery of the system and the lengths cleared employees go to to uphold national security (or what we are told needs to say secret for national security reasons).

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5513 on: December 26, 2018, 12:48:47 AM »
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-becomes-first-president-2002-not-visit-troops-christmastime-n951846

I should not be surprised to hear this... but still wow...I think he is unhappy because he is stuck at Washington instead of playing golf in Florida.

jimmymango

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5514 on: December 26, 2018, 07:08:58 AM »
I do find it interesting that the Left seems to be on the pro-conflict side all of a sudden. However, it could be the MMM forum/Reddit echo chamber making it seem more the case than it really is. From a personal perspective (coming from the a left-wing viewpoint), I agree with Trump's decision to withdraw troops, but think the manner in which he's going about it is all wrong. There seems to be no planning whatsoever and our allies were totally caught off guard. It's just a recipe for disaster (kind of like disbanding the Iraqi army).

That being said, if we are going to use our military to intervene in foreign affairs (and I really think we should focus vastly more resources on humanitarian and diplomatic efforts), having 2,000 troops in Syria in an advisement role (that really is more of a counterweight to prevent a conflict from growing larger and to ensure we have a foot in the door diplomatically) is preferable to American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for 10-20 years.

I believe we should pull our troops out of many places, but again, in an orderly fashion with specific goals that should be met along the way (e.g. adequate Afghan troop levels, a certain number of face-to-face meetings between antagonist negotiators, a signed peace agreement, etc).

toganet

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5515 on: December 26, 2018, 07:34:29 AM »
Coming from a center-left POV (though the r/l framing makes little sense any more) I too disagree with the way Trump is pulling the troops out of Syria, even though I agree we should reduce our involvement there.  As I heard one anonymous adviser put it, "jumping out the window of the 40th floor and taking the elevator both get you to the ground." 

As to the unending nature of wars in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and the ongoing existence of ~800 military bases outside the USA, I think it's important to think of the costs and benefits -- especially benefits that may not be evenly distributed, or that are not "first order" benefits. 

For example, when American taxpayers spend money on the military, that money goes somewhere.  That is how money works.  We are buying equipment, vehicles, weapons, medical supplies, and fuel -- lots of fuel -- all from government contractors.  Many of these are public companies that index investors here at the MMM forums are likely invested in.  Those corporations pay American workers to manufacture stuff so that we can consume it in military activities.  When a bomb gets dropped from a drone somewhere, profit is realized for an American company.  Munitions are expensive single-use consumer goods.

When we use arms sales to motivate allies or antagonists, we are making an economic play, not just a military one.

Much of the damage we cause in places like Iraq then needs to get rebuilt, using US dollars.  Who receives those dollars?  American contractors like Halliburton et al.

So it's not as simple as saying, "let's pull out of these places and stop spending money."  It would literally cost too many jobs if we stopped these wars.  Too many Congressmen have military-involved industry in their districts to let it happen.  Would it break the economy?  Heck no -- we could spend those dollars on infrastructure, education, the Arts -- all better ways to spend it than manufacturing bombs.

The argument goes that the post-WWII world order has been ensured by the USA's military might around the world.  If that's true, we and the rest of the world (the West, anyway) are reaping the benefits in peace and prosperity.  If we want to withdraw, what or who replaces us?  Is there an alternative aside from letting Russia and China inhabit the power vacuum such a turn inward would create?

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5516 on: December 26, 2018, 07:55:14 AM »
I do find it interesting that the Left seems to be on the pro-conflict side all of a sudden. However, it could be the MMM forum/Reddit echo chamber making it seem more the case than it really is. From a personal perspective (coming from the a left-wing viewpoint), I agree with Trump's decision to withdraw troops, but think the manner in which he's going about it is all wrong. There seems to be no planning whatsoever and our allies were totally caught off guard. It's just a recipe for disaster (kind of like disbanding the Iraqi army).

That being said, if we are going to use our military to intervene in foreign affairs (and I really think we should focus vastly more resources on humanitarian and diplomatic efforts), having 2,000 troops in Syria in an advisement role (that really is more of a counterweight to prevent a conflict from growing larger and to ensure we have a foot in the door diplomatically) is preferable to American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for 10-20 years.

I believe we should pull our troops out of many places, but again, in an orderly fashion with specific goals that should be met along the way (e.g. adequate Afghan troop levels, a certain number of face-to-face meetings between antagonist negotiators, a signed peace agreement, etc).

I don’t know why you see “the left” (is there such a monolith?) being suddenly “pro-conflict”. I agree with everything you wrote above, which is my main issue with Trump pulling out of Syria.

sixwings

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5517 on: December 26, 2018, 08:16:53 AM »
I do find it interesting that the Left seems to be on the pro-conflict side all of a sudden. However, it could be the MMM forum/Reddit echo chamber making it seem more the case than it really is. From a personal perspective (coming from the a left-wing viewpoint), I agree with Trump's decision to withdraw troops, but think the manner in which he's going about it is all wrong. There seems to be no planning whatsoever and our allies were totally caught off guard. It's just a recipe for disaster (kind of like disbanding the Iraqi army).

That being said, if we are going to use our military to intervene in foreign affairs (and I really think we should focus vastly more resources on humanitarian and diplomatic efforts), having 2,000 troops in Syria in an advisement role (that really is more of a counterweight to prevent a conflict from growing larger and to ensure we have a foot in the door diplomatically) is preferable to American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for 10-20 years.

I believe we should pull our troops out of many places, but again, in an orderly fashion with specific goals that should be met along the way (e.g. adequate Afghan troop levels, a certain number of face-to-face meetings between antagonist negotiators, a signed peace agreement, etc).

yor view is probably quite common and aligns with my view. The idea itself isnt bad but the way the admin is doing it is of course terrible and incompetent.

sixwings

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5518 on: December 26, 2018, 08:20:36 AM »
Coming from a center-left POV (though the r/l framing makes little sense any more) I too disagree with the way Trump is pulling the troops out of Syria, even though I agree we should reduce our involvement there.  As I heard one anonymous adviser put it, "jumping out the window of the 40th floor and taking the elevator both get you to the ground." 

As to the unending nature of wars in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and the ongoing existence of ~800 military bases outside the USA, I think it's important to think of the costs and benefits -- especially benefits that may not be evenly distributed, or that are not "first order" benefits. 

For example, when American taxpayers spend money on the military, that money goes somewhere.  That is how money works.  We are buying equipment, vehicles, weapons, medical supplies, and fuel -- lots of fuel -- all from government contractors.  Many of these are public companies that index investors here at the MMM forums are likely invested in.  Those corporations pay American workers to manufacture stuff so that we can consume it in military activities.  When a bomb gets dropped from a drone somewhere, profit is realized for an American company.  Munitions are expensive single-use consumer goods.

When we use arms sales to motivate allies or antagonists, we are making an economic play, not just a military one.

Much of the damage we cause in places like Iraq then needs to get rebuilt, using US dollars.  Who receives those dollars?  American contractors like Halliburton et al.

So it's not as simple as saying, "let's pull out of these places and stop spending money."  It would literally cost too many jobs if we stopped these wars.  Too many Congressmen have military-involved industry in their districts to let it happen.  Would it break the economy?  Heck no -- we could spend those dollars on infrastructure, education, the Arts -- all better ways to spend it than manufacturing bombs.

The argument goes that the post-WWII world order has been ensured by the USA's military might around the world.  If that's true, we and the rest of the world (the West, anyway) are reaping the benefits in peace and prosperity.  If we want to withdraw, what or who replaces us?  Is there an alternative aside from letting Russia and China inhabit the power vacuum such a turn inward would create?

Military is also an effective anti-poverty program. Take people who are in tough situations, put them in uniform, give them discipline/education and pay them a good wage.

rocketpj

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5519 on: December 26, 2018, 11:46:40 AM »
Military is also an effective anti-poverty program. Take people who are in tough situations, put them in uniform, give them discipline/education and pay them a good wage.

Effective maybe, hardly efficient.  I know it sounds like socialist lunacy, but why not hire those people, provide the education and whatever else is required, pay a good wage and have them do things that are not intimately tied to killing people and blowing shit up.

Yes, many people lift themselves out of poverty through military service, GI Bill education and other training.  That's fine, but it isn't a reason for the military to exist or expand.  At best it is an offsetting benefit.  That money could be much more effectively spent if the goal is to reduce poverty.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5520 on: December 26, 2018, 12:07:11 PM »
Effective maybe, hardly efficient.  I know it sounds like socialist lunacy, but why not hire those people, provide the education and whatever else is required, pay a good wage and have them do things that are not intimately tied to killing people and blowing shit up.

Most of what the military does is not intimately tied to killing people and blowing shit up.  Most people aren't trained to pull triggers, they're trained to push papers.  The primary activity of the US military is logistics, not destruction. 

So while I do agree that we could use those funds more efficiently if it was solely a matter of training up our workforce, I think they try to strike a balance between giving people basic skills like how to follow directions and effecting national policy like trying to stabilize middle eastern countries.

I do find it interesting that the Left seems to be on the pro-conflict side all of a sudden.

I think you've misinterpreted the objections.  It's not that "the left" is suddenly pro-conflict, it's that they're opposed to radical and immediate abandonment of our allies in a war-torn country in which we bear some responsibility.  I think you'd find lots of support among liberals for reducing US military intervention around the world, but very little support for an immediate recall of all overseas troops.  Many of these places have come to rely on US military support, and just disappearing tomorrow would cause more problems than staying.  You need to have a plan for an orderly withdrawal, and a transfer of responsibility to local police, and you probably need some residual amount of US personnel like ambassadors and their security staffs instead of just a complete US refusal of all contact.

The problem with Trump's immediate Syria withdrawal strategy is that it was done without consulting anyone, without listening to his advisors or the pentagon, and without a plan for stabilizing Syria.  In the short term it will make things worse instead of better, in a way that could have been avoided.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5521 on: December 26, 2018, 12:40:53 PM »
Effective maybe, hardly efficient.  I know it sounds like socialist lunacy, but why not hire those people, provide the education and whatever else is required, pay a good wage and have them do things that are not intimately tied to killing people and blowing shit up.

Most of what the military does is not intimately tied to killing people and blowing shit up.  Most people aren't trained to pull triggers, they're trained to push papers.  The primary activity of the US military is logistics, not destruction. 

So while I do agree that we could use those funds more efficiently if it was solely a matter of training up our workforce, I think they try to strike a balance between giving people basic skills like how to follow directions and effecting national policy like trying to stabilize middle eastern countries.
To put some numbers to the above, for every combat soldier there's about four non-combat positions, and that's not even counting civilian contractors paid to do all the ho-hum jobs like transport and service equipment that - for largely legislative (pork) reasons - we now outsource to private companies. That means most people who are in the military are trained to be mechanics or cooks or IT or accountants or carpenters or dentists or... than combat. 

I think you've misinterpreted the objections.  It's not that "the left" is suddenly pro-conflict, it's that they're opposed to radical and immediate abandonment of our allies in a war-torn country in which we bear some responsibility.  I think you'd find lots of support among liberals for reducing US military intervention around the world, but very little support for an immediate recall of all overseas troops.  Many of these places have come to rely on US military support, and just disappearing tomorrow would cause more problems than staying.  You need to have a plan for an orderly withdrawal, and a transfer of responsibility to local police, and you probably need some residual amount of US personnel like ambassadors and their security staffs instead of just a complete US refusal of all contact.

The problem with Trump's immediate Syria withdrawal strategy is that it was done without consulting anyone, without listening to his advisors or the pentagon, and without a plan for stabilizing Syria.  In the short term it will make things worse instead of better, in a way that could have been avoided.
Or to put it another way, one could have opposed from military involvement from the start but also oppose leaving abruptly. Those two views are not contradictory.

Time and time again the greatest mistake large military powers have made has been to 'defeat' a threat but not provide for the orderly reconstruction of said region. It can take a couple of months to completely destroy a country's infrastructure and a couple of decades to restore basic services. Bombing a country into the stone-age, as the Soviets did with Afghanistan, creates a power vacuum to be filled by the strongest whenever the destroyer's armies pull out. There's a moral reckoning about leaving millions to be slaughtered or starve when your country helped create the current bombed-out situation.

Telecaster

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5522 on: December 26, 2018, 12:56:16 PM »
For example, when American taxpayers spend money on the military, that money goes somewhere.  That is how money works.  We are buying equipment, vehicles, weapons, medical supplies, and fuel -- lots of fuel -- all from government contractors.  Many of these are public companies that index investors here at the MMM forums are likely invested in.  Those corporations pay American workers to manufacture stuff so that we can consume it in military activities.  When a bomb gets dropped from a drone somewhere, profit is realized for an American company.  Munitions are expensive single-use consumer goods.

The official term for this is "military Keynesianism,"  But instead the public buying say, cruise missiles that are dead economically once they are built,  we could use that money to update the electrical grid.  Or build out a high speed rail system.   Or provide research grants to universities.  Update roads and bridges.  On and on.  You get the point.  There are lots of ways that money could be spent domestically that would provide direct economic benefit, and in many cases that benefit would be ongoing.   You're right.  We can't flip a switch and make the change.  It has to be gradual and in a thoughtful manner.  But we should consider it. 

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5523 on: December 26, 2018, 01:07:00 PM »
Consider the cost of WWII (80MM and over a trillion spent).
Yes but we won. In 5 years and 8 months. This one's taken three times longer already and we're losing. Once a trillion dollars could win a war against two Great Powers. Now it can't defeat some illiterate guys with AK-47s.


So our position is less like the Allies and more like the Axis. Except unlike them, if we give up we don't have to worry about suffering half a century of foreign military occupation and partition. The stakes then were high, now they are less so.

You seem to be arguing for larger global conflicts every generation against very large, well funded armies instead of our current state of relative stability and perpetual small-scale involvement in multiple locations. Some quick math shows your way results in an order of magnitude more death - tens of millions per year once these conflicts get out of control.

To paraphrase other historians, we did not 'win' either World War, we just succeeded in not losing. There are no winners in global conflicts, just countries that survive better than others. Your suggestion that we 'won' WWII in 5 years and 8 months, yet are someone 'still' involved in smaller conflicts (e.g. Afghanistan) for a decade+ ignores both the reality of WWII and the magnitude of each conflict. We weren't 'done' in June of 1945 after 'winning' - we spent decades in Europe, Africa and Japan, from the late 1930s well into the 1950s 'rebuilding', 'providing security' and sorting out the fallout from teh whole mess. The Allied forces occupied Germany until 1955, and for most of that period we had hundreds of thousands deployed, far more than we have today.  Conditions in some areas were pretty damn brutal, prompting things like the Berlin Airlift.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5524 on: December 26, 2018, 01:08:37 PM »
Now Trump is in Iraq. The news says this trip would have taken about two weeks to plan. However, wasn't he planning to spend 16 days at Mara Lago? Seems fishy to me since the newspapers mentioned he is the only president in many years not to visit the troops overseas. Plus, another diversion to the government shut down.

If Mattis had not resigned, might he have gone to Iraq, thus, the plans were already in place?



nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5525 on: December 26, 2018, 01:19:16 PM »
Now Trump is in Iraq. The news says this trip would have taken about two weeks to plan. However, wasn't he planning to spend 16 days at Mara Lago? Seems fishy to me since the newspapers mentioned he is the only president in many years not to visit the troops overseas. Plus, another diversion to the government shut down.

If Mattis had not resigned, might he have gone to Iraq, thus, the plans were already in place?

Since the 'blue-wave' election and the immanent House investigations into his administration, businesses and tax filings I've been wondering what DJT would do to distract.  The shut-down seems tailor made to suck all the oxygen, and now we've got photo-ops with troops in Iraq. I'm guessing the next few weeks will have a similar number of high-profile events scripted to put all the focus back on DJT as the supreme and all-important leader.

rocketpj

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5526 on: December 26, 2018, 03:25:09 PM »
I’m not so sure.  The opposition and hatred of Obama was intense by many on the right, and of Clinton in her SoS role - yet despite 9 investigations into Benghazi and all sorts of postering under a GOP controlled congress the government still carried out its basic functions.
I imagine a HRC president with a GOP president would have been pretty similar to Obama’s last term.  Vitriolic but functional.

Had DJT lost he would have screamed 'Rigged' to the heavens and spent whatever amount of energy whipping the lunatics into a frenzy he felt he must to soothe his wounded ego.  So basically full on screaming, violence inducing madness.  It would not have been similar to Obama's term, nor would it have been functional.

Sadly, I think HRC would have been foolish enough to 'focus on the future' and let the whole Russian interference thing slide, and we would still be dealing with storms of fake news and bots designed to amplify minor differences and maxify fear and hostility in the American political class.  Sure, she would have taken some serious steps behind the scenes with the intelligence agencies, but out in front the slide into chaos would continue. 

I liked her and thought she was competent and at least not going to start a nuclear war, but I think the beige dictatorship (of which she is and was a part) is entirely lacking in the skills to deal with social dislocation, radicalization and other aspects of the current wave of change.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5527 on: December 26, 2018, 04:02:36 PM »
Well, well, well the truth about bone spurs in Trumps feet comes out. Ironic, he is in Iraq with real men and women who are serving our country as hero's and not a zero like Trump with his FAKE bone spurs.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/26/politics/trump-bone-spurs-vietnam-war/index.html

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5528 on: December 26, 2018, 04:09:38 PM »
Well, well, well the truth about bone spurs in Trumps feet comes out. Ironic, he is in Iraq with real men and women who are serving our country as hero's and not a zero like Trump with his FAKE bone spurs.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/26/politics/trump-bone-spurs-vietnam-war/index.html

Somehow I doubt anyone is surprised..lol

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5529 on: December 26, 2018, 04:14:05 PM »
Well, well, well the truth about bone spurs in Trumps feet comes out. Ironic, he is in Iraq with real men and women who are serving our country as hero's and not a zero like Trump with his FAKE bone spurs.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/26/politics/trump-bone-spurs-vietnam-war/index.html

Somehow I doubt anyone is surprised..lol

No, no one is surprised but now the story has a more legitimate tone to it. The truth comes out and it is a another embarrassment to have him as President of our country. There must be a law against someone who fakes a medical problem to avoid military service. Truly despicable.

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5530 on: December 26, 2018, 08:06:40 PM »
Well, well, well the truth about bone spurs in Trumps feet comes out. Ironic, he is in Iraq with real men and women who are serving our country as hero's and not a zero like Trump with his FAKE bone spurs.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/26/politics/trump-bone-spurs-vietnam-war/index.html

Somehow I doubt anyone is surprised..lol

No, no one is surprised but now the story has a more legitimate tone to it. The truth comes out and it is a another embarrassment to have him as President of our country. There must be a law against someone who fakes a medical problem to avoid military service. Truly despicable.

Much as I enjoy mocking the tweeter-in-chief, this is all just hearsay and not objective evidence.

Johnez

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5531 on: December 26, 2018, 08:46:11 PM »
Lol. Wow, I despise Trump but CNN reaching really low for that one...

Inaya

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5532 on: December 26, 2018, 11:19:25 PM »
Now Trump is in Iraq. The news says this trip would have taken about two weeks to plan. However, wasn't he planning to spend 16 days at Mara Lago? Seems fishy to me since the newspapers mentioned he is the only president in many years not to visit the troops overseas. Plus, another diversion to the government shut down.

If Mattis had not resigned, might he have gone to Iraq, thus, the plans were already in place?

Since the 'blue-wave' election and the immanent House investigations into his administration, businesses and tax filings I've been wondering what DJT would do to distract.  The shut-down seems tailor made to suck all the oxygen, and now we've got photo-ops with troops in Iraq. I'm guessing the next few weeks will have a similar number of high-profile events scripted to put all the focus back on DJT as the supreme and all-important leader.

Photo ops with covert special ops teams who are no longer covert, it seems. But her emails!

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-navy-seal-iraq-video-1272102

marty998

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5533 on: December 27, 2018, 01:39:25 AM »
Appears that planespotters across the UK and Europe were able to track Air Force 1 on its way to Iraq including figuring out the fake Cargo Transporter call signs being used by aircraft traffic control radar.

Your presidential security forces need to up their game... or a few White House staffers need to keep their mouth shut. Trump or not, something like this should not happen. Imagine if a few Islamic State sympathisers with a hidden surface to air missile in Syria were monitoring twitter at that time....
« Last Edit: December 27, 2018, 01:41:06 AM by marty998 »

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5534 on: December 27, 2018, 03:43:29 AM »
This is just unbelievable! Trump told our troops, over in Iraq, that HE got them the biggest pay increase in 10 years and it is a double digit increase of 10%. It is in fact only 2.6% up from the previous increase of 2.4%.

There is something seriously wrong with this guy.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-lies-military-pay-raise-iraq_us_5c2441a0e4b0407e907fbc2b

Inaya

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5535 on: December 27, 2018, 04:47:02 AM »
This is just unbelievable! Trump told our troops, over in Iraq, that HE got them the biggest pay increase in 10 years and it is a double digit increase of 10%. It is in fact only 2.6% up from the previous increase of 2.4%.

There is something seriously wrong with this guy.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-lies-military-pay-raise-iraq_us_5c2441a0e4b0407e907fbc2b


What... that... what? Maybe somebody told him the raise this year was 10% higher than last year's (2.6% vs 2.4%, with rounding), and he thought they meat the raise itself was 10%?

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5536 on: December 27, 2018, 07:41:46 AM »
Trump made a mistake that could cost lives. Where are his handlers?

https://nypost.com/2018/12/27/trump-accidentally-identifies-secret-navy-seal-team-in-video-post/

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5537 on: December 27, 2018, 08:33:18 AM »
Appears that planespotters across the UK and Europe were able to track Air Force 1 on its way to Iraq including figuring out the fake Cargo Transporter call signs being used by aircraft traffic control radar.

Your presidential security forces need to up their game... or a few White House staffers need to keep their mouth shut. Trump or not, something like this should not happen. Imagine if a few Islamic State sympathisers with a hidden surface to air missile in Syria were monitoring twitter at that time....


BBC says that the news got out when a planespotter (sorry, that should read "aviation enthusiast") photographed Air Force One somewhere over Sheffield, Yorkshire, England -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-46693916


nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5538 on: December 27, 2018, 08:53:35 AM »
This put the state of the executive branch into focus for me:

Executive branch appointees of various heads (partial). 
Note: each person listed below was appointed by DJT or became the director due to resignation/termination, and/or was expected to continue to serve under DJT.
  • Justice - Whitaker* (acting).  Sessions. Yates (acting)
  • Chief of Staff - Mulvaney (acting). Kelly. Priebus.
  • Defense - Shanahan (acting). Mattis.
  • EPA - Wheeler (acting). Pruitt.** McCabe (acting)
  • Interior - Kendal (acting). Zinkee**. Haugrud (acting)
  • UN Ambassador - Unfilled (speculation of Nauert.) Haley.
  • FBI - Wray. McCabe (acting). Comey.
  • Veteran Affairs - Wilkie. Jackson (never confirmed). Shulkin.
  • State - Pompeo. Tillerson.
  • National Security Advisor - Bolton. McMaster. McFarland (acting) Kellogg (acting). Flynn***.
  • Health & Human Services - Azar. Price**.
  • Homeland Security.  Neilson. Duke (acting). Kelly.


There's a whole lot of 'acting' heads right now in some of the largest and most important executive-level positions.
This does not include aids within the WH, like the press secretary/office of communication (5 at last count).

* Appointment is constitutionally questionable
** Under multiple investigations..
*** criminally indicted, pled guilty.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5539 on: December 27, 2018, 11:30:46 AM »
Nice summary. Don't forget that there is always a Trump tweet:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/156829591267328000

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5540 on: December 29, 2018, 11:42:05 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/28/politics/mueller-russian-troll-farm-case-selfie/index.html
"A Russian company told a federal court Thursday that it believes that among the terabytes of data collected by special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation is a nude selfie."

I wonder if this is the leverage that Putin has over DJT.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5541 on: December 29, 2018, 12:20:28 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/28/politics/mueller-russian-troll-farm-case-selfie/index.html
"A Russian company told a federal court Thursday that it believes that among the terabytes of data collected by special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation is a nude selfie."

I wonder if this is the leverage that Putin has over DJT.

What I find most interesting is that it doesn't mention who took the selfie, nor who it was sent to.
Hard to believe that - of all the things that Trump has done and said - a picture of him nude would somehow constitute kompromat.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5542 on: December 29, 2018, 01:16:46 PM »
A nude selfie of Trump, OMG, EWWWWWWWW!!!

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5543 on: December 29, 2018, 01:32:33 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/28/politics/mueller-russian-troll-farm-case-selfie/index.html
"A Russian company told a federal court Thursday that it believes that among the terabytes of data collected by special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation is a nude selfie."

I wonder if this is the leverage that Putin has over DJT.

What I find most interesting is that it doesn't mention who took the selfie, nor who it was sent to.
Hard to believe that - of all the things that Trump has done and said - a picture of him nude would somehow constitute kompromat.

And why is a Russian company (ostensibly one under summons by Mueller) speculating to the American public about it?  Could just as likely be a seed placed for some future kompromat that they manufacture.  The fact there is no surprise or push back against this existing shows just how easy it is for Russia to manipulate Trump.  Heck, even Fox and Friends can manipulate Trump into shutting down the government and threatening to close the border completely.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5544 on: December 29, 2018, 02:47:54 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/28/politics/mueller-russian-troll-farm-case-selfie/index.html
"A Russian company told a federal court Thursday that it believes that among the terabytes of data collected by special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation is a nude selfie."

I wonder if this is the leverage that Putin has over DJT.

What I find most interesting is that it doesn't mention who took the selfie, nor who it was sent to.
Hard to believe that - of all the things that Trump has done and said - a picture of him nude would somehow constitute kompromat.

And why is a Russian company (ostensibly one under summons by Mueller) speculating to the American public about it?  Could just as likely be a seed placed for some future kompromat that they manufacture.  The fact there is no surprise or push back against this existing shows just how easy it is for Russia to manipulate Trump.  Heck, even Fox and Friends can manipulate Trump into shutting down the government and threatening to close the border completely.

Maybe it's a selfie of Individual 1 in a hotel room with two women in the background.


Inaya

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5545 on: December 29, 2018, 03:08:17 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/28/politics/mueller-russian-troll-farm-case-selfie/index.html
"A Russian company told a federal court Thursday that it believes that among the terabytes of data collected by special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation is a nude selfie."

I wonder if this is the leverage that Putin has over DJT.

What I find most interesting is that it doesn't mention who took the selfie, nor who it was sent to.
Hard to believe that - of all the things that Trump has done and said - a picture of him nude would somehow constitute kompromat.

And why is a Russian company (ostensibly one under summons by Mueller) speculating to the American public about it?  Could just as likely be a seed placed for some future kompromat that they manufacture.  The fact there is no surprise or push back against this existing shows just how easy it is for Russia to manipulate Trump.  Heck, even Fox and Friends can manipulate Trump into shutting down the government and threatening to close the border completely.


And take away raises from federal employees.

rocketpj

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5546 on: December 30, 2018, 02:41:01 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/28/politics/mueller-russian-troll-farm-case-selfie/index.html
"A Russian company told a federal court Thursday that it believes that among the terabytes of data collected by special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation is a nude selfie."

I wonder if this is the leverage that Putin has over DJT.

What I find most interesting is that it doesn't mention who took the selfie, nor who it was sent to.
Hard to believe that - of all the things that Trump has done and said - a picture of him nude would somehow constitute kompromat.

It's a distraction at best.  The kompromat is just well documented evidence of decades of criminal activity that, when brought to light, will simultaneously result in DJT going to prison and also (for bonus points) cause massive political havoc in the US and abroad.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5547 on: December 31, 2018, 01:50:43 AM »
You seem to be arguing for larger global conflicts every generation against very large, well funded armies instead of our current state of relative stability and perpetual small-scale involvement in multiple locations.
No, that would be stupid. I am arguing: avoid pointless conflicts. For example, the proper time to oppose Germany was in 1934 when they reoccupied the Ruhr. Legally this was a trigger for military action. It would have been quicker and less painful than the one which started 5 years later.


We should not have invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, etc at all, nor should we have been involved in the Syrian conflict.

Quote
We weren't 'done' in June of 1945 after 'winning' - we spent decades in Europe, Africa and Japan, from the late 1930s well into the 1950s 'rebuilding', 'providing security' and sorting out the fallout from teh whole mess. The Allied forces occupied Germany until 1955, and for most of that period we had hundreds of thousands deployed, far more than we have today.
Yes. but with a key difference to now: people weren't getting killed, by and large. While the 2001 to present conflict has caused some 3 million dead, how many deaths were there in the occupation Japan and Germany? Considerably less. And the bulk of the money was spent on building things, rather than destroying them. I would rather we spent $1 billion on building a water treatment plant than $1 million on blowing one up. At least you have something other than rubble left afterwards.


I have not much problem with spending zillions of dollars building things, and having troops sit around doing nothing, and people not dying. I have a big problem with spending zillions of dollars blowing things up, having troops patrolling around going in harm's way, and many soldiers and civilians dying.


Subtle differences, I know.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5548 on: December 31, 2018, 04:36:11 AM »
Lindsey Graham is paving the way so Trump can gracefully back away from the wall. Trump will declare he got exactly what he wanted. He will say the Dems caved in. He always turns everything into a success even when it is a failure.

Graham’s use of the term “metaphor” might be a strategy to give the president a way out of his ultimatum to Congress, which was to give him billions of dollars for his wall or he won’t sign a spending bill to reopen the government. A metaphor could be an easier target for a compromise.

Here is the whole story: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-wall-reduced-metaphor-lindsey-graham_us_5c295336e4b05c88b7018acf

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5549 on: December 31, 2018, 05:47:19 AM »

Subtle differences, I know.

Go read the relevant histories of the regions you keep talking about Kyle - your oft-expressed desire to have the United States dissolved is clouding your vision.  You keep throwing out '3 million dead' and suggest that if only coalition forces (of which Australia has been a part) had never gone into Iraq and Afghanistan no deaths would have occurred.  That these areas were 'peaceful' until we got involved.  Yet there's been widespread and increasing genocide when we aren't around.  I'd peg the number of deaths had we not intervened at substantially more than 3MM people as Saddam and al-Assad and the numerous Afghan warlords would have continued to murder and oppress their own people.  But of course we can't ever know what could have happened, only view what was happening before and after, and your implications are absurd.  Likewise, in hindsight it would have been great to have clamped down on Germany in 1934, but again you are playing revisionist history. The whole point in being involved now is to prevent these from spreading outside their regions.
Finally, your idea of spending money on construction rather than destruction misses the point that this is exactly what we've been trying to do.  We've spent far more trying to rebuild infrastructure in Iraq than we did previously.
The irony here is that I've not even been a strong supported of these wars, but your reasons for opposing them just don't line up with reality.