Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 1309189 times)

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5100 on: November 26, 2018, 02:45:44 PM »

“A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” -Greek Proverb

As a society, we have handily failed this test with regard to climate change. Let's see if we start taking action now that the impacts are immediate. The sad truth is that the actions we take now are still too little too late and we will not feel the benefit of the actions.

This should be a primary decider in whom you vote for (especially in primaries, for those in the USA). This should also be driving personal decisions on transport, diet, and getting your house insulated if it isn't already (reducing loss will do FAR more than turning down the thermostat or upgrading you heat source).

I agree, but I think it's difficult to sell when many don't believe it's real or believe in its potential impact.

I wonder how long these denialists can really keep their heads in the sand, though.  How many more record-breaking heat days do we need, how many more super-storms with intensities never before witnessed?  How many more species need to show up in northern climates and how many arctic species need to go extinct?

Do we have to lose a few large coastal cities before the economic impacts become even more real?

If you give people the choice to do something mildly uncomfortable today vs catastrophically bad many years in the future, they will almost always pay attention to the facts and do the right thing.  That's why we don't have problems with stuff like obesity and spending, and why there are no consumers of tobacco products any more.  :P

Psychologically humans are bad at these kind of decisions, especially when there is not a direct you do this, this bad thing happens direct correlation. And we are REALLY bad when the things we need to do (reduce burning of fossil fuels) goes against, prevents us from satisfying our immediate needs and wants. The only way for something to happen, is for governments to take the initiative in order to save us from ourselves. Do we have that leadership? The longer we wait the more painful and expensive it's going to be. Unfortunately it is not looking good : (

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5101 on: November 26, 2018, 02:46:01 PM »

“A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” -Greek Proverb

As a society, we have handily failed this test with regard to climate change. Let's see if we start taking action now that the impacts are immediate. The sad truth is that the actions we take now are still too little too late and we will not feel the benefit of the actions.

This should be a primary decider in whom you vote for (especially in primaries, for those in the USA). This should also be driving personal decisions on transport, diet, and getting your house insulated if it isn't already (reducing loss will do FAR more than turning down the thermostat or upgrading you heat source).

I agree, but I think it's difficult to sell when many don't believe it's real or believe in its potential impact.

I wonder how long these denialists can really keep their heads in the sand, though.  How many more record-breaking heat days do we need, how many more super-storms with intensities never before witnessed?  How many more species need to show up in northern climates and how many arctic species need to go extinct?

Do we have to lose a few large coastal cities before the economic impacts become even more real?

Probably.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/26/trump-national-climate-assessment-dont-believe

And even then... since cities tend toward blue, Trump is likely to relish their pain. (And of course there are the religious nut jobs who will say they are being punished by God for lovin' the homosekshuls...)
...but most of Trump's properties are in major coastal cities. And he's from NYC.  Just sayin'...

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5102 on: November 26, 2018, 02:50:53 PM »
For those of us in a science-literate bubble, this is a worthwhile read on some of the inertia to be overcome:
http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/global-warming-god-end-times/

Think about this. When asked, only about half of respondents would say "no" to the statement that global warming is a sign of the "end times."


10% (about as many as those who believe it is a-comin') were sure that it was part of the end times.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5103 on: November 26, 2018, 03:08:11 PM »
Think about this. When asked, only about half of respondents would say "no" to the statement that global warming is a sign of the "end times."

America is still a ridiculous theocracy, for all intents and purposes.  We make fun of the religious crazies in Iran and Saudi Arabia for their ideas, but Americans are just as likely to believe nonsense as anyone else.  Only half of us agree that the composition of the atmosphere is changing because of fossil fuel burning, and the rest of them think the invisible sky wizard is doing it as a sign of the second coming?  What's next, talking animals giving the president advice?  A department of agriculture that only deals out loaves and fishes?  We elect Mike Pence and pray away the gay that is plaguing our nation?  This is grade-A crazy talk, folks.

I like the bible.  It's full of fun stories and its shared mythology provides a cross-cutting cultural subtext for western society, but it's no way to run a country.  "End times"?  Seriously?
« Last Edit: November 26, 2018, 03:36:53 PM by sol »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5104 on: November 26, 2018, 03:14:51 PM »
Think about this. When asked, only about half of respondents would say "no" to the statement that global warming is a sign of the "end times."

America is still a ridiculous theocracy, for all intents and purposes.  We make fun of the religious crazies in Iran and Saudi Arabia for their idea, but Americans are just as likely to believe as anyone else.  Only half of us agree that the composition of the atmosphere is changing because of fossil fuel burning, and the rest of them think the invisible sky wizard is doing it as a sign of the second coming?  What's next, talking animals giving the president advice?  A department of agriculture that only deals out loaves and fishes?  We elect Mike Pence and pray away the gay that is plaguing our nation?  This is grade-A crazy talk, folks.

I like the bible.  It's full of fun stories and its shared mythology provides a cross-cutting cultural subtext for western society, but it's no way to run a country.  "End times"?  Seriously?

The scary thing in Glenstache's survey is that only 17% said that "end times" is not part of their belief system.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5105 on: November 26, 2018, 04:00:36 PM »

“A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” -Greek Proverb

As a society, we have handily failed this test with regard to climate change. Let's see if we start taking action now that the impacts are immediate. The sad truth is that the actions we take now are still too little too late and we will not feel the benefit of the actions.

This should be a primary decider in whom you vote for (especially in primaries, for those in the USA). This should also be driving personal decisions on transport, diet, and getting your house insulated if it isn't already (reducing loss will do FAR more than turning down the thermostat or upgrading you heat source).

I agree, but I think it's difficult to sell when many don't believe it's real or believe in its potential impact.

I wonder how long these denialists can really keep their heads in the sand, though.  How many more record-breaking heat days do we need, how many more super-storms with intensities never before witnessed?  How many more species need to show up in northern climates and how many arctic species need to go extinct?

Do we have to lose a few large coastal cities before the economic impacts become even more real?

If you give people the choice to do something mildly uncomfortable today vs catastrophically bad many years in the future, they will almost always pay attention to the facts and do the right thing.  That's why we don't have problems with stuff like obesity and spending, and why there are no consumers of tobacco products any more.  :P

Psychologically humans are bad at these kind of decisions, especially when there is not a direct you do this, this bad thing happens direct correlation. And we are REALLY bad when the things we need to do (reduce burning of fossil fuels) goes against, prevents us from satisfying our immediate needs and wants. The only way for something to happen, is for governments to take the initiative in order to save us from ourselves. Do we have that leadership? The longer we wait the more painful and expensive it's going to be. Unfortunately it is not looking good : (

I think this is often understated. Humans inherently are programmed to think short term. It's literally the way we evolved. We are great at reacting to immediate short term threats but poor at assessing long term damage. Even with science and education (hey smoking will likely give you agonizing cancer and cut decades off your life! Ahh fuck it YOLO!). Our diets suck, we lack exercise, we suck at saving etc. All with bad long term impacts. We make purchases to satisfy immediate wants. Hell many of us cheat on our spouses often without any remorse for long term damage to the family for years to come. And it's all done for instant gratification.

People don't believe we (humans) have already kicked off the next great extinction event because they don't physically see animals dropping dead right in front of them. They don't believe in evolution because they can't physically see a banana turn into a wolverine overnight. Never mind that it took millions/billions of years just to get to where we are now, which is a time frame human brains have not evolved to comprehend. The don't believe in global warming, because hey it fucking snowed today where they live. And they cherry pick a few years average global temperature data while ignoring the 40 year long term trend that goes up! "Ahh that's just natural" they say. Umm no it ain't. We have these folks called scientist who examine carbon atom isotopes and what not and can physically see the fossil fuel footprint in the excess carbon. "Ahh, nothing wrong with a little excess CO2, plants love it."

Watching anti-AGW folks arguing science just makes me think some of us aren't really as evolved as we claim. Irony at it's finest. Alright, back into my circle of control ( :
« Last Edit: November 26, 2018, 04:06:09 PM by MasterStache »

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5106 on: November 26, 2018, 04:36:20 PM »
<snipped thread>

I think this is often understated. Humans inherently are programmed to think short term. It's literally the way we evolved. We are great at reacting to immediate short term threats but poor at assessing long term damage. Even with science and education (hey smoking will likely give you agonizing cancer and cut decades off your life! Ahh fuck it YOLO!). Our diets suck, we lack exercise, we suck at saving etc. All with bad long term impacts. We make purchases to satisfy immediate wants. Hell many of us cheat on our spouses often without any remorse for long term damage to the family for years to come. And it's all done for instant gratification.

People don't believe we (humans) have already kicked off the next great extinction event because they don't physically see animals dropping dead right in front of them. They don't believe in evolution because they can't physically see a banana turn into a wolverine overnight. Never mind that it took millions/billions of years just to get to where we are now, which is a time frame human brains have not evolved to comprehend. The don't believe in global warming, because hey it fucking snowed today where they live. And they cherry pick a few years average global temperature data while ignoring the 40 year long term trend that goes up! "Ahh that's just natural" they say. Umm no it ain't. We have these folks called scientist who examine carbon atom isotopes and what not and can physically see the fossil fuel footprint in the excess carbon. "Ahh, nothing wrong with a little excess CO2, plants love it."

Watching anti-AGW folks arguing science just makes me think some of us aren't really as evolved as we claim. Irony at it's finest. Alright, back into my circle of control ( :

The ability to respond to issues like climate change may be a fundamental flaw in democracy as a political system because people will vote against things that are inconvenient in the short term.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
- Winston Churchill

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5107 on: November 26, 2018, 05:25:00 PM »

“A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” -Greek Proverb

As a society, we have handily failed this test with regard to climate change. Let's see if we start taking action now that the impacts are immediate. The sad truth is that the actions we take now are still too little too late and we will not feel the benefit of the actions.

This should be a primary decider in whom you vote for (especially in primaries, for those in the USA). This should also be driving personal decisions on transport, diet, and getting your house insulated if it isn't already (reducing loss will do FAR more than turning down the thermostat or upgrading you heat source).

I agree, but I think it's difficult to sell when many don't believe it's real or believe in its potential impact.

I wonder how long these denialists can really keep their heads in the sand, though.  How many more record-breaking heat days do we need, how many more super-storms with intensities never before witnessed?  How many more species need to show up in northern climates and how many arctic species need to go extinct?

Do we have to lose a few large coastal cities before the economic impacts become even more real?

If you give people the choice to do something mildly uncomfortable today vs catastrophically bad many years in the future, they will almost always pay attention to the facts and do the right thing.  That's why we don't have problems with stuff like obesity and spending, and why there are no consumers of tobacco products any more.  :P

Psychologically humans are bad at these kind of decisions, especially when there is not a direct you do this, this bad thing happens direct correlation. And we are REALLY bad when the things we need to do (reduce burning of fossil fuels) goes against, prevents us from satisfying our immediate needs and wants. The only way for something to happen, is for governments to take the initiative in order to save us from ourselves. Do we have that leadership? The longer we wait the more painful and expensive it's going to be. Unfortunately it is not looking good : (

I think this is often understated. Humans inherently are programmed to think short term. It's literally the way we evolved. We are great at reacting to immediate short term threats but poor at assessing long term damage. Even with science and education (hey smoking will likely give you agonizing cancer and cut decades off your life! Ahh fuck it YOLO!). Our diets suck, we lack exercise, we suck at saving etc. All with bad long term impacts. We make purchases to satisfy immediate wants. Hell many of us cheat on our spouses often without any remorse for long term damage to the family for years to come. And it's all done for instant gratification.

People don't believe we (humans) have already kicked off the next great extinction event because they don't physically see animals dropping dead right in front of them. They don't believe in evolution because they can't physically see a banana turn into a wolverine overnight. Never mind that it took millions/billions of years just to get to where we are now, which is a time frame human brains have not evolved to comprehend. The don't believe in global warming, because hey it fucking snowed today where they live. And they cherry pick a few years average global temperature data while ignoring the 40 year long term trend that goes up! "Ahh that's just natural" they say. Umm no it ain't. We have these folks called scientist who examine carbon atom isotopes and what not and can physically see the fossil fuel footprint in the excess carbon. "Ahh, nothing wrong with a little excess CO2, plants love it."

Watching anti-AGW folks arguing science just makes me think some of us aren't really as evolved as we claim. Irony at it's finest. Alright, back into my circle of control ( :

It's like the lily pad question.  An invasive species of lily pad doubles in size every day.  When it covers 100% of the pond, light and air will stop reaching the natural denizens of the pond and they'll die out.  After 30 days the lily pad has covered roughly half the pond.  How many days are left before all life in the pond dies?

How many lily pad denying frogs will be sitting around on day 30 saying "There's still plenty of open pond left, no need to start worrying."?

thriftyc

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5108 on: November 26, 2018, 05:35:27 PM »
General Motors said Monday that it will cut 15% of its salaried workforce, and that it will idle factories in Michigan, Ohio, Maryland and Canada. The plants could be shuttered entirely.

#MAGA

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2018/11/26/ontario-plant-closure/2112539002/

No not MAGA, it's now MAGAMA!  (Make America Great Again My Ass!)

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5109 on: November 26, 2018, 05:58:29 PM »
saw this posted the other day...

Government scientists tell the public that there's a small chance romaine lettuce will make them ill - people react by throwing all lettuce in the trash, whether it was romaine or not.

Another group of government scientists tell the public that the planet is definitely warming, that we are unquestionably the root cause and there will be massive costs, destruction and death if we don't do something right away\.  Half the people refute the science - the other half shrug and say 'well not much that can be done.'

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5110 on: November 26, 2018, 06:05:01 PM »
saw this posted the other day...

Government scientists tell the public that there's a small chance romaine lettuce will make them ill - people react by throwing all lettuce in the trash, whether it was romaine or not.

Another group of government scientists tell the public that the planet is definitely warming, that we are unquestionably the root cause and there will be massive costs, destruction and death if we don't do something right away\.  Half the people refute the science - the other half shrug and say 'well not much that can be done.'
It turns out that people don't like salad very much, anyways.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5111 on: November 27, 2018, 06:13:06 AM »
General Motors said Monday that it will cut 15% of its salaried workforce, and that it will idle factories in Michigan, Ohio, Maryland and Canada. The plants could be shuttered entirely.

#MAGA

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2018/11/26/ontario-plant-closure/2112539002/

I guess Trump thought he could steer the industry. I don't think threats are the answer. GM, like any other manufacturer that wants to stay in business, will shift it's focus to keep up with shifting market demands. The small/mid-size car market is so saturated right now. New car demand is down, loan delinquencies are up. It's starting to smell like a recession in the auto market all over again. 

I do like that GM is shifting more of its focus to electric vehicles. It will be good to continue bringing new electric cars to the market and enhancing/improving technology. 

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5112 on: November 27, 2018, 06:25:11 AM »
General Motors said Monday that it will cut 15% of its salaried workforce, and that it will idle factories in Michigan, Ohio, Maryland and Canada. The plants could be shuttered entirely.

#MAGA

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2018/11/26/ontario-plant-closure/2112539002/

I guess Trump thought he could steer the industry. I don't think threats are the answer. GM, like any other manufacturer that wants to stay in business, will shift it's focus to keep up with shifting market demands. The small/mid-size car market is so saturated right now. New car demand is down, loan delinquencies are up. It's starting to smell like a recession in the auto market all over again. 

I do like that GM is shifting more of its focus to electric vehicles. It will be good to continue bringing new electric cars to the market and enhancing/improving technology.

It's nice that all the major automakers are developing more EVs, but GM is cutting production of its domestic cars.  They're still building plenty of trucks, SUVs and crossovers. The pickup remains the nation's best selling vehicle class, with the massively fuel inefficient V8 as the most common engine type. Because they are classified as 'trucks' instead of 'cars' they have an entirely different set of fuel efficiency standards, even though the majority of pickups do nothing more than transport passengers (most often 1) on paved surface streets most of the time.  Talk about a giant loophole.

To their credit, the 'big-three' all remember the auto-bailout and great-recession very very well.  This move is all about making sure they don't wind up with massive liabilities when the next recession hits, and I suspect they are seeing the writing on the wall already, with increasing consumer debt loads, steel tarrifs and a slowing of new vehicle purchases.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5114 on: November 27, 2018, 07:22:19 AM »
General Motors said Monday that it will cut 15% of its salaried workforce, and that it will idle factories in Michigan, Ohio, Maryland and Canada. The plants could be shuttered entirely.

#MAGA

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2018/11/26/ontario-plant-closure/2112539002/

I guess Trump thought he could steer the industry. I don't think threats are the answer. GM, like any other manufacturer that wants to stay in business, will shift it's focus to keep up with shifting market demands. The small/mid-size car market is so saturated right now. New car demand is down, loan delinquencies are up. It's starting to smell like a recession in the auto market all over again. 

I do like that GM is shifting more of its focus to electric vehicles. It will be good to continue bringing new electric cars to the market and enhancing/improving technology.

It's nice that all the major automakers are developing more EVs, but GM is cutting production of its domestic cars. They're still building plenty of trucks, SUVs and crossovers. The pickup remains the nation's best selling vehicle class, with the massively fuel inefficient V8 as the most common engine type. Because they are classified as 'trucks' instead of 'cars' they have an entirely different set of fuel efficiency standards, even though the majority of pickups do nothing more than transport passengers (most often 1) on paved surface streets most of the time.  Talk about a giant loophole.

To their credit, the 'big-three' all remember the auto-bailout and great-recession very very well.  This move is all about making sure they don't wind up with massive liabilities when the next recession hits, and I suspect they are seeing the writing on the wall already, with increasing consumer debt loads, steel tarrifs and a slowing of new vehicle purchases.

Yes and that sucks, but if they are losing money and are responding to market demands. So it's going to happen. Long term they are projecting that investments in EV/Autonomous cars will create more jobs. This reminds me of the "bring coal back because renewable energy is too expensive" argument. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of renewable energy jobs are being created. Even during the recession it was one of the fastest growing sectors with double digit job growth. Some folks are just resistant to progress.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5115 on: November 27, 2018, 08:02:36 AM »
Some folks are just resistant to progress.

They're called conservatives for a reason.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5116 on: November 27, 2018, 08:09:57 AM »
Some folks are just resistant to progress.

They're called conservatives for a reason.

Because they're pro conserving the environment?

:P

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5117 on: November 27, 2018, 08:25:46 AM »
General Motors said Monday that it will cut 15% of its salaried workforce, and that it will idle factories in Michigan, Ohio, Maryland and Canada. The plants could be shuttered entirely.

#MAGA

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2018/11/26/ontario-plant-closure/2112539002/

I guess Trump thought he could steer the industry. I don't think threats are the answer. GM, like any other manufacturer that wants to stay in business, will shift it's focus to keep up with shifting market demands. The small/mid-size car market is so saturated right now. New car demand is down, loan delinquencies are up. It's starting to smell like a recession in the auto market all over again. 

I do like that GM is shifting more of its focus to electric vehicles. It will be good to continue bringing new electric cars to the market and enhancing/improving technology.

It's nice that all the major automakers are developing more EVs, but GM is cutting production of its domestic cars. They're still building plenty of trucks, SUVs and crossovers. The pickup remains the nation's best selling vehicle class, with the massively fuel inefficient V8 as the most common engine type. Because they are classified as 'trucks' instead of 'cars' they have an entirely different set of fuel efficiency standards, even though the majority of pickups do nothing more than transport passengers (most often 1) on paved surface streets most of the time.  Talk about a giant loophole.

To their credit, the 'big-three' all remember the auto-bailout and great-recession very very well.  This move is all about making sure they don't wind up with massive liabilities when the next recession hits, and I suspect they are seeing the writing on the wall already, with increasing consumer debt loads, steel tarrifs and a slowing of new vehicle purchases.

Yes and that sucks, but if they are losing money and are responding to market demands. So it's going to happen. Long term they are projecting that investments in EV/Autonomous cars will create more jobs. This reminds me of the "bring coal back because renewable energy is too expensive" argument. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of renewable energy jobs are being created. Even during the recession it was one of the fastest growing sectors with double digit job growth. Some folks are just resistant to progress.

I guess I'm just ticked off because the common refrain is that 'people in the US don't want small cars' - well that's at least in part because we've shielded SUVs and pickups and even most crossovers from the more strict fuel-efficiency standards by allowing them to be categorized as 'trucks'.  Apparently we can't hold trucks to the same standard because that would be an added cost to businesses who actually use trucks as trucks, and for some reason that's a no-go.  At the same time we haven't raised the gas tax in over two decades, and since its fixed rather than a percentage it's <half was it was per gallon when fuel was $1.10/gallon.  Then we dole out tax breaks and lease out our public land for drilling for tiddlywinks to oil companies because... jobs (I guess?).

So people in the US keep buying large vehicles because pickups don't have to meet the same standards, and because fuel is cheap because we've made it so. Require trucks to get 35mpg (which would doubtless make them more expensive and/or less powerful) and push the cost of gasoline up past $4/gallon (still cheap by most developed country's standards, including much of Canada) and suddenly small, fuel efficient vehicles start looking a lot more attractive.  In fact, this is exactly what we've seen each time the cost of gasoline has shot up around $4 - SUV sales plummet and there's renewed interest in fuel efficient cars.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5118 on: November 27, 2018, 08:42:17 AM »
Does anyone else remember when GM had built an electric car (the EV1) that people wanted to buy . . . but then they killed the project, made all the people with the cars give them back, and then destroyed them and pretended that it never happened?  It's nice that they've decided to try to catch up to the Japanese manufacturers on this in 2018, but they had a chance to lead the market and chose not to in favor of marketing more trucks.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5119 on: November 27, 2018, 08:47:02 AM »
Does anyone else remember when GM had built an electric car (the EV1) that people wanted to buy . . . but then they killed the project, made all the people with the cars give them back, and then destroyed them and pretended that it never happened?  It's nice that they've decided to try to catch up to the Japanese manufacturers on this in 2018, but they had a chance to lead the market and chose not to in favor of marketing more trucks.

Yep.

I imagine you've probably seen the documentary they made about it, GuitarStv, but for anyone who doesn't know about this and hasn't seen it, here's a link:

http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/223/


sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5120 on: November 27, 2018, 09:31:31 AM »
Does anyone else remember when GM had built an electric car (the EV1) that people wanted to buy

Not only do I remember, I got to drive one!

GM was doing promotional tours of college campus back in the 90s, and they brought a handful of EV1s to Caltech and parked them by the Red Door, and then put out clipboards where you could sign up for a test drive.  I was 19. 

There was a GM rep in the passenger seat.  I got in and told him I was going to pull out kind of quick to see what it could do, and he smiled and said go for it so I hit the pedal and spun the tires until it started to drift sideways.  There was smoke.  It was awesome.

That low-end torque stomp from a silent electric engine has echoed in my memory through every other car I've owned.  Even the V6 Audi I used to own couldn't compete with that feeling.  Nothing matched it until...  I bought an all-electric Nissan Leaf.  The 2011/12 Leafs, in particular, are known for front wheel tire spin.  Starting in 2013 Nissan turned down the power delivery curve to make them a little more manageable for city driving.  Pansies.

Just Joe

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5121 on: November 27, 2018, 09:38:59 AM »
And then there is the fascinating story about the NiMH battery patents around that same time frame. Just look up "Chevron NiMH" to get started.

I was and remain very enthusiastic about what the Tesla team has accomplished over the past decade. And other brands who are also making a quality effort to put EVs on the road. Am eager for the status quo of fossil fuels to be diminished in favor of more transport diversity, energy diversity and perhaps a little less political power for the fossil fuel industry.

There are many environmental factors that require optimization before we've permanently damaged this planet and this can't happen while the fossil fuel industry is resistant to being objective, while they are willing to lie, and therefore while they are so rich. Let them be poorer so other voices (of reason) get more consideration and influence.

I think ultimately we need to reduce the need to travel across town to work and then cross it again to go shopping and then again to go home. It would probably be wise to quit shipping trinkets back and forth across the globe and simply ship the designs back and forth to regional factories capable of doing small production runs. More walking or pedaling, less driving and less long distance delivery logistics. Neighborhood living and working and shopping.

I guess the first real step for DW and I has been to study the discussions here. If people change their spending, so many of the other pieces just fall into place automatically.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2018, 09:43:15 AM by Just Joe »

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5122 on: November 27, 2018, 10:15:35 AM »
Does anyone else remember when GM had built an electric car (the EV1) that people wanted to buy

Not only do I remember, I got to drive one!

GM was doing promotional tours of college campus back in the 90s, and they brought a handful of EV1s to Caltech and parked them by the Red Door, and then put out clipboards where you could sign up for a test drive.  I was 19. 

There was a GM rep in the passenger seat.  I got in and told him I was going to pull out kind of quick to see what it could do, and he smiled and said go for it so I hit the pedal and spun the tires until it started to drift sideways.  There was smoke.  It was awesome.

That low-end torque stomp from a silent electric engine has echoed in my memory through every other car I've owned.  Even the V6 Audi I used to own couldn't compete with that feeling.  Nothing matched it until...  I bought an all-electric Nissan Leaf.  The 2011/12 Leafs, in particular, are known for front wheel tire spin.  Starting in 2013 Nissan turned down the power delivery curve to make them a little more manageable for city driving.  Pansies.

Admittedly, I'll occasionally click off Eco Mode in my 2014 while driving the family around. My kids love it when I gun it at a green light. The wife gets a little queasy.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2018, 10:51:22 AM by MasterStache »

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5123 on: November 27, 2018, 10:18:29 AM »
General Motors said Monday that it will cut 15% of its salaried workforce, and that it will idle factories in Michigan, Ohio, Maryland and Canada. The plants could be shuttered entirely.

#MAGA

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2018/11/26/ontario-plant-closure/2112539002/

I guess Trump thought he could steer the industry. I don't think threats are the answer. GM, like any other manufacturer that wants to stay in business, will shift it's focus to keep up with shifting market demands. The small/mid-size car market is so saturated right now. New car demand is down, loan delinquencies are up. It's starting to smell like a recession in the auto market all over again. 

I do like that GM is shifting more of its focus to electric vehicles. It will be good to continue bringing new electric cars to the market and enhancing/improving technology.

It's nice that all the major automakers are developing more EVs, but GM is cutting production of its domestic cars. They're still building plenty of trucks, SUVs and crossovers. The pickup remains the nation's best selling vehicle class, with the massively fuel inefficient V8 as the most common engine type. Because they are classified as 'trucks' instead of 'cars' they have an entirely different set of fuel efficiency standards, even though the majority of pickups do nothing more than transport passengers (most often 1) on paved surface streets most of the time.  Talk about a giant loophole.

To their credit, the 'big-three' all remember the auto-bailout and great-recession very very well.  This move is all about making sure they don't wind up with massive liabilities when the next recession hits, and I suspect they are seeing the writing on the wall already, with increasing consumer debt loads, steel tarrifs and a slowing of new vehicle purchases.

Yes and that sucks, but if they are losing money and are responding to market demands. So it's going to happen. Long term they are projecting that investments in EV/Autonomous cars will create more jobs. This reminds me of the "bring coal back because renewable energy is too expensive" argument. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of renewable energy jobs are being created. Even during the recession it was one of the fastest growing sectors with double digit job growth. Some folks are just resistant to progress.

I guess I'm just ticked off because the common refrain is that 'people in the US don't want small cars' - well that's at least in part because we've shielded SUVs and pickups and even most crossovers from the more strict fuel-efficiency standards by allowing them to be categorized as 'trucks'.  Apparently we can't hold trucks to the same standard because that would be an added cost to businesses who actually use trucks as trucks, and for some reason that's a no-go.  At the same time we haven't raised the gas tax in over two decades, and since its fixed rather than a percentage it's <half was it was per gallon when fuel was $1.10/gallon.  Then we dole out tax breaks and lease out our public land for drilling for tiddlywinks to oil companies because... jobs (I guess?).

So people in the US keep buying large vehicles because pickups don't have to meet the same standards, and because fuel is cheap because we've made it so. Require trucks to get 35mpg (which would doubtless make them more expensive and/or less powerful) and push the cost of gasoline up past $4/gallon (still cheap by most developed country's standards, including much of Canada) and suddenly small, fuel efficient vehicles start looking a lot more attractive.  In fact, this is exactly what we've seen each time the cost of gasoline has shot up around $4 - SUV sales plummet and there's renewed interest in fuel efficient cars.

+1.

This goes back again to short term thinking from consumers. When gas goes back up to $4/gallon and higher, they will be regretting those gas guzzlers. They'll be dumping them again for compact cars. Rinse and repeat.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5124 on: November 27, 2018, 10:43:14 AM »
Does anyone else remember when GM had built an electric car (the EV1) that people wanted to buy
<snip>
There was a GM rep in the passenger seat.  I got in and told him I was going to pull out kind of quick to see what it could do, and he smiled and said go for it so I hit the pedal and spun the tires until it started to drift sideways.  There was smoke.  It was awesome.

That low-end torque stomp from a silent electric engine has echoed in my memory through every other car I've owned.  Even the V6 Audi I used to own couldn't compete with that feeling.  Nothing matched it until...  I bought an all-electric Nissan Leaf.  The 2011/12 Leafs, in particular, are known for front wheel tire spin.  Starting in 2013 Nissan turned down the power delivery curve to make them a little more manageable for city driving.  Pansies.

Admittedly, I'll occasionally click off Eco Mode in my 2014 while driving the family around. My kids love it when I gun it at a green light. The wife get's a little queasy.

I've already had to replace my two front tires in my 2015 Leaf, and I always leave it on eco mode and try not to gun it much. My back tires looked almost brand new.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5125 on: November 27, 2018, 10:53:05 AM »
Does anyone else remember when GM had built an electric car (the EV1) that people wanted to buy
<snip>
There was a GM rep in the passenger seat.  I got in and told him I was going to pull out kind of quick to see what it could do, and he smiled and said go for it so I hit the pedal and spun the tires until it started to drift sideways.  There was smoke.  It was awesome.

That low-end torque stomp from a silent electric engine has echoed in my memory through every other car I've owned.  Even the V6 Audi I used to own couldn't compete with that feeling.  Nothing matched it until...  I bought an all-electric Nissan Leaf.  The 2011/12 Leafs, in particular, are known for front wheel tire spin.  Starting in 2013 Nissan turned down the power delivery curve to make them a little more manageable for city driving.  Pansies.

Admittedly, I'll occasionally click off Eco Mode in my 2014 while driving the family around. My kids love it when I gun it at a green light. The wife get's a little queasy.

I've already had to replace my two front tires in my 2015 Leaf, and I always leave it on eco mode and try not to gun it much. My back tires looked almost brand new.

I am assuming they need rotated more often? I've only had my car for about 3 months. Plenty of tread on the tires though and it doesn't get driven much.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5126 on: November 27, 2018, 10:59:51 AM »
I am assuming they need rotated more often? I've only had my car for about 3 months. Plenty of tread on the tires though and it doesn't get driven much.

That would help, but ultimately the problem is that the Leaf just eats tires.  It has too much torque from zero rpm, like all electric cars, and the "low rolling resistance" tires they usually put on hybrids and EVS seem more prone to premature wear because they were designed in the wimpy Prius era, when hybrids were gentler on tires.  Someone needs to invent an EV tire that offers more traction and longer life.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5127 on: November 27, 2018, 11:34:08 AM »
Back on topic, today's news is reporting that Trump's campaign manager secretly met with the Julian Assange and some Russian nationals to discuss the Russian hacking materials being publicized by wikileaks , under pretense of a meeting with Chinese investors in the Ecuadoran embassy.  I'm not exactly sure what collusion looks like, but this has got to be pretty damn close.

Drain the swamp, right?  Just your typical covert meeting with a hostile foreign power to undermine our democracy.

With stories like this coming out, I suspect the Mueller report is really going to test Congressional republicans.  If it comes out and says "The President of the United States unambiguously committed treason against the United States" will Mitch McConnell give a damn?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5128 on: November 27, 2018, 11:39:44 AM »
If it comes out and says "The President of the United States unambiguously committed treason against the United States" will Mitch McConnell give a damn?


Only if he's managed to squeeze every last bit of use out of the embarrassment-in-chief...


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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5130 on: November 27, 2018, 01:48:32 PM »
Back on topic, today's news is reporting that Trump's campaign manager secretly met with the Julian Assange and some Russian nationals to discuss the Russian hacking materials being publicized by wikileaks , under pretense of a meeting with Chinese investors in the Ecuadoran embassy.  I'm not exactly sure what collusion looks like, but this has got to be pretty damn close.

Drain the swamp, right?  Just your typical covert meeting with a hostile foreign power to undermine our democracy.

With stories like this coming out, I suspect the Mueller report is really going to test Congressional republicans.  If it comes out and says "The President of the United States unambiguously committed treason against the United States" will Mitch McConnell give a damn?


Yes I was waiting for the discussion to turn back to this.
Manafort breaching his plea agreement by being caught lying to the FBI.

In a few years time when a Producer decides to write a Netflix series based on this whole debacle no one will watch it because it's just too unbelievable.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5131 on: November 27, 2018, 01:52:45 PM »
Back on topic, today's news is reporting that Trump's campaign manager secretly met with the Julian Assange and some Russian nationals to discuss the Russian hacking materials being publicized by wikileaks , under pretense of a meeting with Chinese investors in the Ecuadoran embassy.  I'm not exactly sure what collusion looks like, but this has got to be pretty damn close.

Drain the swamp, right?  Just your typical covert meeting with a hostile foreign power to undermine our democracy.

With stories like this coming out, I suspect the Mueller report is really going to test Congressional republicans.  If it comes out and says "The President of the United States unambiguously committed treason against the United States" will Mitch McConnell give a damn?


Yes I was waiting for the discussion to turn back to this.
Manafort breaching his plea agreement by being caught lying to the FBI.

In a few years time when a Producer decides to write a Netflix series based on this whole debacle no one will watch it because it's just too unbelievable.

My only remaining question regarding Manafort is whether he'll get a presidential pardon.  Otherwise he's most likely going to die in prison (he's 69) - pretty tough for a guy who loves cloaking himself in everything luxury.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5132 on: November 27, 2018, 02:33:01 PM »
Well this is interesting.

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/27/this-reporter-argues-that-trump-used-manafort-as-a-mole-inside-muellers-investigation_partner/

Quote
But Marcy Wheeler, one of most astute Mueller watchers who once provided as yet undisclosed information to the FBI about the investigation, argued compellingly that Manafort has been acting as a mole within the investigation for President Donald Trump. Even more intriguingly, though, she believes Mueller knew this and may have used Manafort against the president.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5133 on: November 27, 2018, 02:41:15 PM »
Well this is interesting.

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/27/this-reporter-argues-that-trump-used-manafort-as-a-mole-inside-muellers-investigation_partner/

Quote
But Marcy Wheeler, one of most astute Mueller watchers who once provided as yet undisclosed information to the FBI about the investigation, argued compellingly that Manafort has been acting as a mole within the investigation for President Donald Trump. Even more intriguingly, though, she believes Mueller knew this and may have used Manafort against the president.

That is interesting and would be pretty funny if proven true.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5134 on: November 27, 2018, 03:19:23 PM »
Well this is interesting.

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/27/this-reporter-argues-that-trump-used-manafort-as-a-mole-inside-muellers-investigation_partner/

Quote
But Marcy Wheeler, one of most astute Mueller watchers who once provided as yet undisclosed information to the FBI about the investigation, argued compellingly that Manafort has been acting as a mole within the investigation for President Donald Trump. Even more intriguingly, though, she believes Mueller knew this and may have used Manafort against the president.


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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5135 on: November 27, 2018, 07:57:23 PM »
Well this is interesting.

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/27/this-reporter-argues-that-trump-used-manafort-as-a-mole-inside-muellers-investigation_partner/

Quote
But Marcy Wheeler, one of most astute Mueller watchers who once provided as yet undisclosed information to the FBI about the investigation, argued compellingly that Manafort has been acting as a mole within the investigation for President Donald Trump. Even more intriguingly, though, she believes Mueller knew this and may have used Manafort against the president.

That is interesting and would be pretty funny if proven true.

Nah this would mean that trump is capable for long term strategic thinking and I just don't think he's competent or has the mental faculties for that. It's like I don't think that Trump was involved with any collusion, he is just not competent enough to pull that off. His aides/campaign, for sure, but he def didn't know anything about it because he's too dumb and would jsut tweet it out.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5136 on: November 28, 2018, 04:44:31 AM »
Trump doesn't have to be the brains of the outfit. He has enough cronies who could have come up with the idea. Also, don't forget his sons. The apples don't fall far from the tree.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5137 on: November 28, 2018, 05:28:28 AM »
So Sanders claims the WH's own climate report, the one involving roughly 300 scientist and 13 different agencies, "is not based on facts." Wow now that is some of the richest irony yet. They finally put out something based on evidence and facts, and it gets hand waved away. This administration is so fucked up.

sherr

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5138 on: November 28, 2018, 07:41:15 AM »
Nah this would mean that trump is capable for long term strategic thinking and I just don't think he's competent or has the mental faculties for that. It's like I don't think that Trump was involved with any collusion, he is just not competent enough to pull that off. His aides/campaign, for sure, but he def didn't know anything about it because he's too dumb and would jsut tweet it out.

I disagree. Trump is evil and corrupt, but he's not stupid. The stupid things he says / does are calculated to distract from the actual important things that are going on. He's a showman and a con artist, and a very skilled one. We dismiss him as merely stupid to our own peril.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5139 on: November 28, 2018, 08:01:23 AM »
Nah this would mean that trump is capable for long term strategic thinking and I just don't think he's competent or has the mental faculties for that. It's like I don't think that Trump was involved with any collusion, he is just not competent enough to pull that off. His aides/campaign, for sure, but he def didn't know anything about it because he's too dumb and would jsut tweet it out.

I disagree. Trump is evil and corrupt, but he's not stupid. The stupid things he says / does are calculated to distract from the actual important things that are going on. He's a showman and a con artist, and a very skilled one. We dismiss him as merely stupid to our own peril.

I certainly don't think he's stupid, but I've seen no indication that he has any great long-term strategies.  His m.o. is to fight the battles in front of him and attack all dissenters, and worry about future conflicts when they come up. It's a strategy he's used for decades.  Unlike most leaders, he lacks any sort of long-term vision; his score card has been how much money he generates for himself and whether he wins the fight at hand. To that he's shown a remarkable level of cognitive dissonance; he decides he's 'won' even when most objective observers would conclude the opposite.  Even his campaign slogan (MAGA!) lacks any clear vision or focus - being 'great' is whatever the supporter wants it to be.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5140 on: November 28, 2018, 08:17:32 AM »
Even his campaign slogan (MAGA!) lacks any clear vision or focus - being 'great' is whatever the supporter wants it to be.
Probably true of most if not all Presidential Campaign Slogans

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5141 on: November 28, 2018, 08:19:17 AM »
I think there's a legitimate question about whether the lawyers who shared Mueller's information with the Trump team should expect to ever be hired again after they're done representing Manafort. I cannot find any evidence that what they did was illegal because it's so unprecedented, but it's certainly contrary to the spirit of any cooperation deal Mueller would have seen as valuable.

Trump/Manafort deserve credit for creating such a scheme. Manafort clearly trusts Trump to eventually pardon him.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5142 on: November 28, 2018, 08:34:51 AM »
Even his campaign slogan (MAGA!) lacks any clear vision or focus - being 'great' is whatever the supporter wants it to be.
Probably true of most if not all Presidential Campaign Slogans.

Except for the "again" part -- pretty clear dog whistle to old white people (especially men) who liked it when no one questioned who was on top in this country.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5143 on: November 28, 2018, 08:36:03 AM »
Even his campaign slogan (MAGA!) lacks any clear vision or focus - being 'great' is whatever the supporter wants it to be.
Probably true of most if not all Presidential Campaign Slogans.
Campaign slogans yes, but I'd argue that most administrations held a clear (if idealistic) view of where they wanted to take the country. Trump has undermined or removed entirely what core principles the GOP had largely to do what he found convenient at the time. Gone are the policies of nation-building and the idea of being a moral global leader.  He eschews the concept of limited government by sparring with State governments, undermining the courts and contradicting the conclusions of his own agencies.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5144 on: November 28, 2018, 08:41:35 AM »
I think there's a legitimate question about whether the lawyers who shared Mueller's information with the Trump team should expect to ever be hired again after they're done representing Manafort. I cannot find any evidence that what they did was illegal because it's so unprecedented, but it's certainly contrary to the spirit of any cooperation deal Mueller would have seen as valuable.

Trump/Manafort deserve credit for creating such a scheme. Manafort clearly trusts Trump to eventually pardon him.

If you read the article that JLee posted one of the pieces of supporting evidence for the idea that Mueller expected / planned for / used this type of unprecedented collusion is the surprising lack of a clause in Manafort's plea agreement that would have forbidden him from talking about the stuff he learned.

I'm not sure I would agree that Trump/Manafort deserve much credit for being blatantly corrupt slimebags, more that Mueller deserves credit for anticipating / planning for it. We agree that Manafort clearly expects Trump to pardon him though.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5145 on: November 28, 2018, 08:47:16 AM »
Even his campaign slogan (MAGA!) lacks any clear vision or focus - being 'great' is whatever the supporter wants it to be.
Probably true of most if not all Presidential Campaign Slogans.
Except for the "again" part -- pretty clear dog whistle to old white people (especially men) who liked it when no one questioned who was on top in this country.
Or whatever the detractor wants it be?  One can indeed see what one wants to see.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5146 on: November 28, 2018, 08:51:17 AM »
Even his campaign slogan (MAGA!) lacks any clear vision or focus - being 'great' is whatever the supporter wants it to be.
Probably true of most if not all Presidential Campaign Slogans.
Except for the "again" part -- pretty clear dog whistle to old white people (especially men) who liked it when no one questioned who was on top in this country.
Or whatever the detractor wants it be?  One can indeed see what one wants to see.
What part of America was great, is no longer great, and would allegedly be made great again by Trump?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5147 on: November 28, 2018, 08:54:43 AM »
Even his campaign slogan (MAGA!) lacks any clear vision or focus - being 'great' is whatever the supporter wants it to be.
Probably true of most if not all Presidential Campaign Slogans.
Campaign slogans yes, but I'd argue that most administrations held a clear (if idealistic) view of where they wanted to take the country. Trump has undermined or removed entirely what core principles the GOP had largely to do what he found convenient at the time. Gone are the policies of nation-building and the idea of being a moral global leader.  He eschews the concept of limited government by sparring with State governments, undermining the courts and contradicting the conclusions of his own agencies.
Not sure the GOP or the Democrats have a strong core principle beyond "winning".   Despite that similarity, there are differences of opinion between the parties on what actions will have the best long term results for the country.  Perhaps the deepest fear of each party is that the other will demonstrate success with its actions - which could then affect their core principle of "winning".

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5148 on: November 28, 2018, 09:01:07 AM »
Even his campaign slogan (MAGA!) lacks any clear vision or focus - being 'great' is whatever the supporter wants it to be.
Probably true of most if not all Presidential Campaign Slogans.
Except for the "again" part -- pretty clear dog whistle to old white people (especially men) who liked it when no one questioned who was on top in this country.
Or whatever the detractor wants it be?  One can indeed see what one wants to see.
What part of America was great, is no longer great, and would allegedly be made great again by Trump?
Offhand, perhaps the part that believes That government is best which governs least?  E.g., Trump Exceeds One-In, Two-Out Goals On Cutting Regulations, But It May Be Getting Tougher.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5149 on: November 28, 2018, 09:01:48 AM »
I think there's a legitimate question about whether the lawyers who shared Mueller's information with the Trump team should expect to ever be hired again after they're done representing Manafort. I cannot find any evidence that what they did was illegal because it's so unprecedented, but it's certainly contrary to the spirit of any cooperation deal Mueller would have seen as valuable.

Trump/Manafort deserve credit for creating such a scheme. Manafort clearly trusts Trump to eventually pardon him.

If you read the article that JLee posted one of the pieces of supporting evidence for the idea that Mueller expected / planned for / used this type of unprecedented collusion is the surprising lack of a clause in Manafort's plea agreement that would have forbidden him from talking about the stuff he learned.

I'm not sure I would agree that Trump/Manafort deserve much credit for being blatantly corrupt slimebags, more that Mueller deserves credit for anticipating / planning for it. We agree that Manafort clearly expects Trump to pardon him though.

If true, and Mueller saw the ruse, it must've been some pretty sloppy "spy craft." That'd be an interesting read.

I would guess that Mueller's team got tipped off or that Manafort seemed way too eager after resisting a deal for so long.