Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 374232 times)

toganet

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4650 on: October 30, 2018, 07:51:26 AM »
Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.
No he can't do this by EO.  The courts will strike this.

Yeah, I'm not so sure about this. Apparently conservative legal scholars have been making the argument that the language in the Constitution has been wrongly interpreted to extend birthright citizenship to the US born children of undocumented immigrants.  In 1898, the Supreme Court held that Wong Kim Ark, who was born in San Francisco to Chinese parents residing in the United States, was a citizen because of his birth on American soil. Michael Anton, the former spokesman for Trump’s National Security Council, argued in WaPo that because Ark's parents were legal residents, the ruling should not be read as an affirmation of the status of children of undocumented immigrants. 

So, the legal groundwork has already been laid for the conservative majority of SCOTUS to affirm any such executive order, provided that the White House Counsel drafts it with a reasonable amount of thought (think Travel Ban III as opposed to Travel Ban I).  My only hope is that Roberts' desire to preserve the last fig leaf of judicial independence would make him a swing vote.  But that is a very thin reed to rest that hope on.

My forced-optimistic view on this is that it won't go anywhere, but just gave Dems a turnout booster, just one week before the Midterms.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4651 on: October 30, 2018, 08:05:24 AM »

My forced-optimistic view on this is that it won't go anywhere, but just gave Dems a turnout booster, just one week before the Midterms.

It's like he's forgotten the massive protests and blowback after his travel ban.  This is bigger.  Most people will know someone who falls into this camp.  DACA.  There are teachers and priests and honor-roll students and coaches and firefighters who fall into this camp, and will make effective statements on the harm such an EO would cause.

He'd also be punishing people (again and forever) for things their parents did before they were born, which basically goes against what the country stands for.

He's been watching too much Tucker and Coulter others who inexplicably think illegal immigration is the single greatest treat to our nation.

thd7t

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4652 on: October 30, 2018, 08:22:41 AM »
If you believe that this executive order would target only the children of illegal immigrants, you are naive and not listening.  Trump is saying (directly) that this could apply to the children of any immigrant who is not naturalized.

I don't know they're really drafting this order or just using another lie to gin up votes (like his fake 10% middle class tax cut and his lie about keeping coverage for preexisting conditions), but it is wider spread and more dangerous than is being discussed here.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4653 on: October 30, 2018, 09:24:04 AM »
Remember when congress and the founding fathers cared about executive over reach?

thd7t

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4654 on: October 30, 2018, 09:26:45 AM »
Also, bear in mind that the 14th amendment was specifically written for the purpose of ensuring full citizenship to formerly enslaved people.  Beginning to dismantle this amendment is a serious step in removing rights and protections from people of color in the USA.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4655 on: October 30, 2018, 09:30:43 AM »
Also, bear in mind that the 14th amendment was specifically written for the purpose of ensuring full citizenship to formerly enslaved people.  Beginning to dismantle this amendment is a serious step in removing rights and protections from people of color in the USA.

The president doing something racist?  Shocking.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4656 on: October 30, 2018, 09:31:21 AM »
If you believe that this executive order would target only the children of illegal immigrants, you are naive and not listening.  Trump is saying (directly) that this could apply to the children of any immigrant who is not naturalized.


Correct.  He is proposing to limit (by executive order) birthright citizenship to only those born to existing US citizens, as well as prevent anyone born in the US to undocumented parents from applying for citizenship in the future.


Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4657 on: October 30, 2018, 09:36:25 AM »
If you believe that this executive order would target only the children of illegal immigrants, you are naive and not listening.  Trump is saying (directly) that this could apply to the children of any immigrant who is not naturalized.


Correct.  He is proposing to limit (by executive order) birthright citizenship to only those born to existing US citizens, as well as prevent anyone born in the US to undocumented parents from applying for citizenship in the future.

Or maybe it's time for Lindsey Graham to do some (more) boot licking:
https://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/413832-graham-to-introduce-legislation-ending-birthright-citizenship?fbclid=IwAR3USp6xL4IAgLuU4Xln7WlD3qyyfImS6k0M7S-6LpK0PW90EiGHeVT-juk

thd7t

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4658 on: October 30, 2018, 09:37:32 AM »
If you believe that this executive order would target only the children of illegal immigrants, you are naive and not listening.  Trump is saying (directly) that this could apply to the children of any immigrant who is not naturalized.


Correct.  He is proposing to limit (by executive order) birthright citizenship to only those born to existing US citizens, as well as prevent anyone born in the US to undocumented parents from applying for citizenship in the future.
This is almost correct, but by suggesting that "birth tourism" is an issue, he is also saying that the children of people legally in the US would not be granted citizenship. 

It's a short step from there to saying that the children of immigrants in the US as permanent residents wouldn't be granted citizenship.  In fact, it's such a short step that he hasn't said he's not taking it.

toganet

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4659 on: October 30, 2018, 10:11:06 AM »
If you believe that this executive order would target only the children of illegal immigrants, you are naive and not listening.  Trump is saying (directly) that this could apply to the children of any immigrant who is not naturalized.


Correct.  He is proposing to limit (by executive order) birthright citizenship to only those born to existing US citizens, as well as prevent anyone born in the US to undocumented parents from applying for citizenship in the future.
This is almost correct, but by suggesting that "birth tourism" is an issue, he is also saying that the children of people legally in the US would not be granted citizenship. 

It's a short step from there to saying that the children of immigrants in the US as permanent residents wouldn't be granted citizenship.  In fact, it's such a short step that he hasn't said he's not taking it.

It's not hard to imagine steps after that as tests for citizenship.  Not a member of the Republican party?  You must not be a "real" American, so no citizenship for you, retroactively.

thd7t

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4660 on: October 30, 2018, 10:17:01 AM »
If you believe that this executive order would target only the children of illegal immigrants, you are naive and not listening.  Trump is saying (directly) that this could apply to the children of any immigrant who is not naturalized.


Correct.  He is proposing to limit (by executive order) birthright citizenship to only those born to existing US citizens, as well as prevent anyone born in the US to undocumented parents from applying for citizenship in the future.
This is almost correct, but by suggesting that "birth tourism" is an issue, he is also saying that the children of people legally in the US would not be granted citizenship. 

It's a short step from there to saying that the children of immigrants in the US as permanent residents wouldn't be granted citizenship.  In fact, it's such a short step that he hasn't said he's not taking it.

It's not hard to imagine steps after that as tests for citizenship.  Not a member of the Republican party?  You must not be a "real" American, so no citizenship for you, retroactively.
It's not hard to find examples of countries who created barriers to citizenship and applied them retroactively.  I will say that given that the worst Anti-Semitic attack in American history to date happened three days ago, following that precedent seems a bit on the nose.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4661 on: October 30, 2018, 11:20:58 AM »
If you believe that this executive order would target only the children of illegal immigrants, you are naive and not listening.  Trump is saying (directly) that this could apply to the children of any immigrant who is not naturalized.


Correct.  He is proposing to limit (by executive order) birthright citizenship to only those born to existing US citizens, as well as prevent anyone born in the US to undocumented parents from applying for citizenship in the future.
This is almost correct, but by suggesting that "birth tourism" is an issue, he is also saying that the children of people legally in the US would not be granted citizenship. 

It's a short step from there to saying that the children of immigrants in the US as permanent residents wouldn't be granted citizenship.  In fact, it's such a short step that he hasn't said he's not taking it.

It's not hard to imagine steps after that as tests for citizenship.  Not a member of the Republican party?  You must not be a "real" American, so no citizenship for you, retroactively.
It's not hard to find examples of countries who created barriers to citizenship and applied them retroactively.  I will say that given that the worst Anti-Semitic attack in American history to date happened three days ago, following that precedent seems a bit on the nose.

I suspect that the President firmly believes that there were "good people" on both sides of the attack.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4662 on: October 30, 2018, 11:27:09 AM »
So.... if the GOP effectively moves to gut the 14th Amendment, will they also still claim to be the party of Lincoln?

Would Trump also try and then say that anyone in a territory (not a state) is also not a US citizen? His response to Maria certainly seemed to indicate that he didn't think of Puerto Ricans as US citizens (they are).

Aelias

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4663 on: October 30, 2018, 11:59:52 AM »

Or maybe it's time for Lindsey Graham to do some (more) boot licking:
https://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/413832-graham-to-introduce-legislation-ending-birthright-citizenship?fbclid=IwAR3USp6xL4IAgLuU4Xln7WlD3qyyfImS6k0M7S-6LpK0PW90EiGHeVT-juk

Oh, good God, I hate Lindsey Graham most of all! He really did seem to be "one of the good ones" for a long time, but--WOW--his utter capitulation has been just unbelievably pathetic.  2015: "[Trump is] a race-baiting, xenophobic religious bigot. He doesn't represent my party. He doesn't represent the values that the men and women who wear the uniform are fighting for."  2018: "Finally, a president willing to take on this absurd policy of birthright citizenship. I’ve always supported comprehensive immigration reform — and at the same time — the elimination of birthright citizenship."

But, to be fair, he was apparently looking to get rid of birthright citizenship in 2010 as well (the summer before the midterms -- what a coincidence!).  So I guess it was my mistake to have ever believed he was any better than a race-baiting, xenophobic bigot.

Cites:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/lindsey-graham-trump-bigot/

https://www.politico.com/story/2010/07/graham-eyes-birthright-citizenship-040395

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4664 on: October 30, 2018, 12:04:26 PM »
Let's not forget Lindsay Graham's analogy of choosing between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump as deciding "whether to be shot or poisoned - what does it really matter?" and that "Donald Trump, I think, is the most unprepared person I've ever met to be commander in chief", and his views on foreign policy "disturbs the heck out of me"

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/lindsey-graham-trump-cruz-choice-218069


PathtoFIRE

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4665 on: October 30, 2018, 12:39:37 PM »
In more "Accuse Your Opponents of the Crimes and Misdeeds That You and Your Party Actually Commit" news...

Mueller Wants the FBI to Look at a Scheme to Discredit Him
Quote
An alleged scheme to pay off women to fabricate sexual assault allegations against Special Counsel Robert Mueller has been referred to the FBI for further investigation, a spokesman for the special counsel’s office told The Atlantic. “When we learned last week of allegations that women were offered money to make false claims about the Special Counsel, we immediately referred the matter to the FBI for investigation,” the spokesman, Peter Carr, told me in an email on Tuesday.

Can't seem to find the story on foxnews.com yet, I'm sure they're hard at work getting that plastered on the top of the website, and I'm sure Hannity and Carlson will give it the attention it deserves [/s]

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4666 on: October 30, 2018, 12:53:47 PM »
I was actually thinking today that Mueller must be relieved that there has been less of a focus on his investigation lately.

Not to say Mueller wishes for caravans or mass shootings or bombings - but he appears to prefer to toil away undisturbed.  He answers all media inquiries with 'no comment' and doesn't give press conferences or tv appearances, unlike virtually everyone else today in Washington.

jambongris

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scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4668 on: October 30, 2018, 05:13:00 PM »
And the American VP at work.

Mike Pence got a rabbi who is really a Christian to pray for synagogue dead. On Monday, Vice President Mike Pence led a campaign event in Grand Rapids, Michigan where prayers were said by Rabbi Loren Jacobs, who is affiliated with the Messianic synagogue Shema Yisrael.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/10/30/honoring-pittsburgh-synagogue-victims-mike-pence-appears-with-rabbi-who-preaches-jesus-is-messiah/?utm_term=.25e274bc0235

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4669 on: October 30, 2018, 05:49:51 PM »
Mike Pence got a rabbi who is really a Christian to pray for synagogue dead. On Monday, Vice President Mike Pence led a campaign event in Grand Rapids, Michigan where prayers were said by Rabbi Loren Jacobs, who is affiliated with the Messianic synagogue Shema Yisrael.

Most Jews don't consider Messianic followers to be Jews because they see Jesus as the Messiah.  Few Christians see the Messianic as Christian because they don't follow the sacraments and observe Jewish holidays like Yom Kippur.

Given that Kushner is a devout Orthodox Jew and Ivanka converted to Judaism (both members of th is WH), it's either gross incompetence or a deliberate transgression that this administration would choose a Messianic rabbi for Pence to pray with following the shooting in Pittsburg.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4670 on: October 30, 2018, 06:16:03 PM »
Say this today and started wondering if @sol is working at The Onion:

Trump Claims He Can Overrule Constitution With Executive Order Because Of Little-Known ‘No One Will Stop Me’ Loophole

Even Cruz didn't condemn Trump's executive order idea.

"Now, it is an open question legally what the right means is to do so."

Wtf? Maybe he doesn't realize that his natural-born citizenship would be next on the chopping block (like Obama, he has one American parent; unlike Obama, he wasn't born in the US). Of course, he hasn't condemned Trump declaring himself a nationalist either. (Would white nationalists accept Hispanics into their clubs?)


ixtap

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4671 on: October 30, 2018, 06:25:46 PM »
Say this today and started wondering if @sol is working at The Onion:

Trump Claims He Can Overrule Constitution With Executive Order Because Of Little-Known ‘No One Will Stop Me’ Loophole

Even Cruz didn't condemn Trump's executive order idea.

"Now, it is an open question legally what the right means is to do so."

Wtf? Maybe he doesn't realize that his natural-born citizenship would be next on the chopping block (like Obama, he has one American parent; unlike Obama, he wasn't born in the US). Of course, he hasn't condemned Trump declaring himself a nationalist either. (Would white nationalists accept Hispanics into their clubs?)

As long as a few exceptional characters behave themselves, they can probably attend. Even the Nazis had token Jews working for them.

accolay

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4672 on: October 30, 2018, 07:31:34 PM »
It's not hard to imagine steps after that as tests for citizenship.  Not a member of the Republican party?  You must not be a "real" American, so no citizenship for you, retroactively.

Sounds like an Aryan selection process from the 1930s.

I'm wondering about retroactively taking citizenship from anybody who had illegal alien parents applying to... who? Does that mean that Trump's plan is also get rid of Dreamers with one fell swoop also?

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4673 on: October 31, 2018, 07:17:19 AM »
Discussed a while ago, but a new article details how Trump's tax law is making it much easier for wealthy families to pass down large fortunes to their heirs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/31/trumps-tax-law-makes-it-so-easy-pass-down-fortunes-that-many-millionaires-barely-need-estate-lawyers/?utm_term=.eff69a3c1eed

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4674 on: October 31, 2018, 08:07:20 AM »
It's not hard to imagine steps after that as tests for citizenship.  Not a member of the Republican party?  You must not be a "real" American, so no citizenship for you, retroactively.

Sounds like an Aryan selection process from the 1930s.

I'm wondering about retroactively taking citizenship from anybody who had illegal alien parents applying to... who? Does that mean that Trump's plan is also get rid of Dreamers with one fell swoop also?

How many generations back would the law apply?  Technically everyone in the US who isn't of Native American ancestry is an illegal alien . . .

Aelias

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4675 on: October 31, 2018, 08:16:47 AM »
It's not hard to imagine steps after that as tests for citizenship.  Not a member of the Republican party?  You must not be a "real" American, so no citizenship for you, retroactively.

Sounds like an Aryan selection process from the 1930s.

I'm wondering about retroactively taking citizenship from anybody who had illegal alien parents applying to... who? Does that mean that Trump's plan is also get rid of Dreamers with one fell swoop also?

How many generations back would the law apply?  Technically everyone in the US who isn't of Native American ancestry is an illegal alien . . .

My Trump loving father-in-law is the son of two immigrants from the Middle East (from one of the Travel Ban countries, no less!). I have no idea what their immigration status was when he was born in the 40s, but it strikes me as at least possible that weren't citizens at that point. So--does that mean his citizenship is question?  Especially because they were from a suspect country?  What does that mean for my husband's citizenship?  Or my kids'?

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4676 on: October 31, 2018, 08:40:12 AM »
How many generations back would the law apply?  Technically everyone in the US who isn't of Native American ancestry is an illegal alien . . .

How Jewish did you have to be before the SS made you wear a yellow star on your coat whenever you went out in public?  Surely we have a role model we can look to for answering these sorts of difficult questions.  We're not reinventing the wheel here.

Sugaree

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4677 on: October 31, 2018, 08:45:11 AM »
It's not hard to imagine steps after that as tests for citizenship.  Not a member of the Republican party?  You must not be a "real" American, so no citizenship for you, retroactively.

Sounds like an Aryan selection process from the 1930s.

I'm wondering about retroactively taking citizenship from anybody who had illegal alien parents applying to... who? Does that mean that Trump's plan is also get rid of Dreamers with one fell swoop also?

How many generations back would the law apply?  Technically everyone in the US who isn't of Native American ancestry is an illegal alien . . .

I'm guessing one less than his parents.  Though, I'd wonder how that would affect Melania and her parents.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4678 on: October 31, 2018, 09:34:15 AM »
Though, I'd wonder how that would affect Melania and her parents.

As the most bullied person in the world, I'm sure an exception would be made.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4679 on: October 31, 2018, 10:31:20 AM »
And the American VP at work.

Mike Pence got a rabbi who is really a Christian to pray for synagogue dead. On Monday, Vice President Mike Pence led a campaign event in Grand Rapids, Michigan where prayers were said by Rabbi Loren Jacobs, who is affiliated with the Messianic synagogue Shema Yisrael.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/10/30/honoring-pittsburgh-synagogue-victims-mike-pence-appears-with-rabbi-who-preaches-jesus-is-messiah/?utm_term=.25e274bc0235

This is a bit of rabbit hole on the background of how Jacobs got there, but an interesting tangent:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/never-go-full-trump-the-lena-epstein-story

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4680 on: October 31, 2018, 06:50:32 PM »
How Jewish did you have to be before the SS made you wear a yellow star on your coat whenever you went out in public?  Surely we have a role model we can look to for answering these sorts of difficult questions.  We're not reinventing the wheel here.
One Jewish grandparent, or even a zero amount of Jewish blood if you considered yourself Jewish. For example, if your mother's mother's mother's mother... etc was Jewish, technically you are, but most would have lost that particular leaf of culture amongst all the tangled branches of the family tree. In practice, this meant that some devout Christians ended up in the camps; if your paternal grandfather was Jewish and had married a Christian, she generally didn't convert, so their son would be Christian by default, and he'd generally marry a Christian, too.

But they also had categories, so for example if you'd converted from Judaism to Christianity before the race laws came about, or if you were Christian but married a Jew, you'd be a "second degree mischling". You can read about it here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mischling_Test.

You needed to have a family tree back to 1750 free of Jews, Poles, Africans and so on to get a German Blood Certificate which let you join Zer Partee and the SS. There were quite a few Generals and so on who had some Jewish or Polish or whatever blood whom Corporal Schicklgruber issued a German Blood Certificate so they could keep working for the state. Anyone who's ever researched their own family tree will know that we're basically all mongrels, we've got all sorts of heritages if we go back far enough, especially once you factor in the people of doubtful parentage, like Hitler's father.

The full Jews went to the camps first, the first degree mischlings next, and the second-degrees later. I suspect that had the regime continued, eventually all of them would have been killed, including Generals with Slovenian heritage and so on. And certainly they would have returned to their original victims: the severely disabled, whom they first started murdering as early as 1934 ("for their own good!") but they had to stop under public pressure - I've no doubt they would have killed disabled war veterans after any victory. I mean, as the Red Army approached Berlin Hitler ordered that everything be destroyed, and that the German people had failed him and all deserved to die, etc. While obviously racism was a primary motive, in the end the Nazis wanted to kill everyone, including other Nazis.

Interestingly, the test for being Jewish enough to qualify for Israeli citizenship is more strict than the test the Nazis applied. So for example if your father was Jewish and your mother wasn't, you'd be in the camps, but Israel won't take you as a citizen; if your father were alive he could make aliyah and then convert you as a child, but if he died before you wanted to go to Israel you'd miss out. So that had Israel with its current laws existed in 1935 and the Germans allowed free migration to it, a significant number of people still would have died in Treblinka and so on.

Which is all very interesting, but I don't think Blood Certificates are coming to the US any time soon. Remember when Obama was going to send black helicopters to FEMA camps guarded by UN soldiers? Americans have a tendency to hysteria, and to assume any adverse event will lead to dictatorial Armageddon. More likely, Drumpf is just mouthing off once again, and it'll be forgotten in a week or two; less likely, he's actually pushing his powers to see what he can get away with. "The Supreme Court has made their ruling, now let them enforce it," kind of thing.

fuzzy math

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4681 on: November 01, 2018, 08:25:46 AM »
If the Dems take over either the house or senate, things are going to get unbelievably nasty. I've been focusing on how a majority in either would dampen his political progress, but it just occurred to me that he may pivot entirely away from policy and ramp up his rallies for 2020 to be effectively near 100% of his game.

The other thought regarding him running in 2020, is what he will actually do after the election is over (should he remain in power). There are no more rallies. Sure he can still go from town to town, but the fervor of those fools attending and the adulation will not serve a purpose. The man is desperate enough to devote large swaths of time and money into reaffirming whether people will still love him years in the future. These rallies started 1.5 yrs ago. What after 2020? He will have no more future goals to bloat his own ego with.

I also think anyone assuming he will be in good enough mental or physical health to even consider co-opting the constitution for another run in 2024 is deluded. I doubt he will even live til 2024.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4682 on: November 01, 2018, 08:28:46 AM »
If the Dems take over either the house or senate, things are going to get unbelievably nasty. I've been focusing on how a majority in either would dampen his political progress, but it just occurred to me that he may pivot entirely away from policy and ramp up his rallies for 2020 to be effectively near 100% of his game.

The other thought regarding him running in 2020, is what he will actually do after the election is over (should he remain in power). There are no more rallies. Sure he can still go from town to town, but the fervor of those fools attending and the adulation will not serve a purpose. The man is desperate enough to devote large swaths of time and money into reaffirming whether people will still love him years in the future. These rallies started 1.5 yrs ago. What after 2020? He will have no more future goals to bloat his own ego with.

I also think anyone assuming he will be in good enough mental or physical health to even consider co-opting the constitution for another run in 2024 is deluded. I doubt he will even live til 2024.

I see no reason why he wouldn't just keep doing the rallies. And stoking the 2024 idea. Even if he was too sick to try to run, whipping his base up into a crazy-train frenzy that has nothing to do with objective reality is kind of his specialty, no?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4683 on: November 01, 2018, 08:37:12 AM »
If the Dems take over either the house or senate, things are going to get unbelievably nasty. I've been focusing on how a majority in either would dampen his political progress, but it just occurred to me that he may pivot entirely away from policy and ramp up his rallies for 2020 to be effectively near 100% of his game.

I thought we were already there...  I mean, despite controlling all leavers of government this administration has passed just one major reform (the corporate tax cut). Most of what has been done is dismantlement, often by EO, which is much easier than actually creating something.    Politifact ranks Trump last among post WWII presidents for signing new laws in his year in office.

In comparison, he's given 35 campaign rallies just in 2018, with 5 more scheduled in the next 5 days.  At this pace he'll have spent at least 50 days at rallies in 2018.  Trump has also gone golfing 149 days since his inauguration (out of 649 total days, or 23% of days)

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4684 on: November 01, 2018, 09:15:57 AM »
If the Dems take over either the house or senate, things are going to get unbelievably nasty. I've been focusing on how a majority in either would dampen his political progress, but it just occurred to me that he may pivot entirely away from policy and ramp up his rallies for 2020 to be effectively near 100% of his game.

The other thought regarding him running in 2020, is what he will actually do after the election is over (should he remain in power). There are no more rallies. Sure he can still go from town to town, but the fervor of those fools attending and the adulation will not serve a purpose. The man is desperate enough to devote large swaths of time and money into reaffirming whether people will still love him years in the future. These rallies started 1.5 yrs ago. What after 2020? He will have no more future goals to bloat his own ego with.

I also think anyone assuming he will be in good enough mental or physical health to even consider co-opting the constitution for another run in 2024 is deluded. I doubt he will even live til 2024.

I see no reason why he wouldn't just keep doing the rallies. And stoking the 2024 idea. Even if he was too sick to try to run, whipping his base up into a crazy-train frenzy that has nothing to do with objective reality is kind of his specialty, no?

People are saying (the best people really), that any sickness shown by President Trump would obviously be the result of a deep state liberal muslim bio-warfare plot to assassinate the leader of the United States.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4685 on: November 01, 2018, 09:18:50 AM »
If the Dems take over either the house or senate, things are going to get unbelievably nasty. I've been focusing on how a majority in either would dampen his political progress, but it just occurred to me that he may pivot entirely away from policy and ramp up his rallies for 2020 to be effectively near 100% of his game.

The other thought regarding him running in 2020, is what he will actually do after the election is over (should he remain in power). There are no more rallies. Sure he can still go from town to town, but the fervor of those fools attending and the adulation will not serve a purpose. The man is desperate enough to devote large swaths of time and money into reaffirming whether people will still love him years in the future. These rallies started 1.5 yrs ago. What after 2020? He will have no more future goals to bloat his own ego with.

I also think anyone assuming he will be in good enough mental or physical health to even consider co-opting the constitution for another run in 2024 is deluded. I doubt he will even live til 2024.

I see no reason why he wouldn't just keep doing the rallies. And stoking the 2024 idea. Even if he was too sick to try to run, whipping his base up into a crazy-train frenzy that has nothing to do with objective reality is kind of his specialty, no?

The rallies are absolutely Trump's favorite thing about this whole President project of his. Why would he ever stop those?

Is there evidence that he's in poor health? Lately Presidents live to nice, old ages. Nixon died at 81, and every President after him who died passed 90.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4686 on: November 01, 2018, 09:29:15 AM »
In comparison, he's given 35 campaign rallies just in 2018, with 5 more scheduled in the next 5 days.  At this pace he'll have spent at least 50 days at rallies in 2018.  Trump has also gone golfing 149 days since his inauguration (out of 649 total days, or 23% of days)

By this simple math, his relatively poor legislative output totally makes sense.  If he's spent 189 out of 649 days either in the Cathedral of Light or at the golf course, he's spent approximately 30% of his time in office NOT being President.  Not taking meetings, not making decisions, not working legislation.

Let's do the math.  That politifact page suggests that the past 10 US presidents have passed an average of 252 bills in their first year of office, most of them with a divided Congress instead of uniparty control.  Trump has passed 94 (with full control of Congress), making him 62% below average for legislative accomplishments, despite only spending 30% of his days golfing or holding propaganda parties.  By this metric, he would still be below average even if he actually did his job every single day.

So take heart, patriotic Americans.  The Manchurian President is both lazy AND incompetent when he's not being lazy.  Things could be much worse.  Don't listen to his boasts about accomplishing "almost more than any administration in the history of our country" because simple arithmetic suggests otherwise.

tralfamadorian

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4687 on: November 01, 2018, 09:37:44 AM »
...So take heart, patriotic Americans.  The Manchurian President is both lazy AND incompetent when he's not being lazy.  Things could be much worse.  Don't listen to his boasts about accomplishing "almost more than any administration in the history of our country" because simple arithmetic suggests otherwise.

Except for all the judiciary appointments...

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4688 on: November 01, 2018, 09:50:38 AM »
...So take heart, patriotic Americans.  The Manchurian President is both lazy AND incompetent when he's not being lazy.  Things could be much worse.  Don't listen to his boasts about accomplishing "almost more than any administration in the history of our country" because simple arithmetic suggests otherwise.

Except for all the judiciary appointments...

He's appointed two SCOTUS justices and 29 appeals court judges and 53 district court judges. His pace isn't much different from past presidents, and he benefitted from McConnell's gambit to deny Obama's nomination of Garland a vote.  As is, he's tied with Obama at this point in his presidency for SCOTUS appointees and is just slightly ahead of Obama with appeals judges.

Unlike legislation, presidents have relatively little control over what slots are available; they can only fill vacancies. 

fuzzy math

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4689 on: November 01, 2018, 01:27:29 PM »
If the Dems take over either the house or senate, things are going to get unbelievably nasty. I've been focusing on how a majority in either would dampen his political progress, but it just occurred to me that he may pivot entirely away from policy and ramp up his rallies for 2020 to be effectively near 100% of his game.

I thought we were already there...  I mean, despite controlling all leavers of government this administration has passed just one major reform (the corporate tax cut). Most of what has been done is dismantlement, often by EO, which is much easier than actually creating something.    Politifact ranks Trump last among post WWII presidents for signing new laws in his year in office.

In comparison, he's given 35 campaign rallies just in 2018, with 5 more scheduled in the next 5 days.  At this pace he'll have spent at least 50 days at rallies in 2018.  Trump has also gone golfing 149 days since his inauguration (out of 649 total days, or 23% of days)

Today is an especially terrible day because he’s in my city. And the thought of him going to every fucking city in the country is more than I can bear on this particular day.


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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4690 on: November 01, 2018, 01:28:32 PM »
If the Dems take over either the house or senate, things are going to get unbelievably nasty. I've been focusing on how a majority in either would dampen his political progress, but it just occurred to me that he may pivot entirely away from policy and ramp up his rallies for 2020 to be effectively near 100% of his game.

The other thought regarding him running in 2020, is what he will actually do after the election is over (should he remain in power). There are no more rallies. Sure he can still go from town to town, but the fervor of those fools attending and the adulation will not serve a purpose. The man is desperate enough to devote large swaths of time and money into reaffirming whether people will still love him years in the future. These rallies started 1.5 yrs ago. What after 2020? He will have no more future goals to bloat his own ego with.

I also think anyone assuming he will be in good enough mental or physical health to even consider co-opting the constitution for another run in 2024 is deluded. I doubt he will even live til 2024.

I see no reason why he wouldn't just keep doing the rallies. And stoking the 2024 idea. Even if he was too sick to try to run, whipping his base up into a crazy-train frenzy that has nothing to do with objective reality is kind of his specialty, no?

The rallies are absolutely Trump's favorite thing about this whole President project of his. Why would he ever stop those?

Is there evidence that he's in poor health? Lately Presidents live to nice, old ages. Nixon died at 81, and every President after him who died passed 90.

Have you seen him in light colored pants? I work with the elderly. Obese people do not live to be elderly.


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caracarn

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4691 on: November 01, 2018, 02:05:05 PM »
In comparison, he's given 35 campaign rallies just in 2018, with 5 more scheduled in the next 5 days.  At this pace he'll have spent at least 50 days at rallies in 2018.  Trump has also gone golfing 149 days since his inauguration (out of 649 total days, or 23% of days)

By this simple math, his relatively poor legislative output totally makes sense.  If he's spent 189 out of 649 days either in the Cathedral of Light or at the golf course, he's spent approximately 30% of his time in office NOT being President.  Not taking meetings, not making decisions, not working legislation.

Let's do the math.  That politifact page suggests that the past 10 US presidents have passed an average of 252 bills in their first year of office, most of them with a divided Congress instead of uniparty control.  Trump has passed 94 (with full control of Congress), making him 62% below average for legislative accomplishments, despite only spending 30% of his days golfing or holding propaganda parties.  By this metric, he would still be below average even if he actually did his job every single day.

So take heart, patriotic Americans.  The Manchurian President is both lazy AND incompetent when he's not being lazy.  Things could be much worse.  Don't listen to his boasts about accomplishing "almost more than any administration in the history of our country" because simple arithmetic suggests otherwise.
And of those days he's said he only works about 2-3 hours, so it's not as if he puts in a typical presidential day anyway.  By that yardstick he's massively productive, right?  I'm sure that will eventually become a talking point.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4692 on: November 01, 2018, 02:45:23 PM »
Just to add a little bit of a contrarian point, I feel like if the people are truly sovereign, then the actual practice of that sovereignty should reside mostly with the House. There is a chief executive in order to execute the functions of government, but these days, (and even since the beginning), that actual execution mostly starts are the cabinet or department level, so one of the President's primary jobs is to oversee these high-level people and ensure they are carrying out their duties. There are other duties of the President as outlined in the Constitution, but it certainly seems possible that a highly competent chief executive who appoints a capable and empowered team could perform that set of duties on a part time basis.

Now, I don't think we have anything close to that in the current situation, and even if a President was afforded more free time, I would certainly argue that that time would be better spent doing things other than tweeting, holding hate rallies, and visiting and golfing at places that he/she owns; some of those would include following through on those other duties, personally addressing emergent and sensitive events and issues, providing leadership and inspiration to the employees of the federal government and all citizens, foreign relations, etc. Hey, sounds a little like someone I know in a slightly earlier part of this century...

Anyway, the point is that a good President isn't necessarily one who's day is completely chock full of cabinet meetings and minutiae.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4693 on: November 01, 2018, 02:48:04 PM »

Is there evidence that he's in poor health? Lately Presidents live to nice, old ages. Nixon died at 81, and every President after him who died passed 90.

I don't think there's any reason to assume that being president affords you a greater life expectancy than other well-to-do individuals, and the sample size of those born after WWII and vaccinations is so small (n=4) that we can't infer anything.

As a whole, the major factors which are good predictors of life expectancy include family history, weight, exercise frequency, and diet. 

Family history - his parents (Fred & Mary) lived to 93 and 88, respectively.  His grandparents lived to 49 (Frederick, influenza), 88 (Mary), 92 (Mary MacLeod) and 88 (Malcom MacLeod).  He has five siblings; one died (Fred Jr) at age 43 due to alcoholism.

Weight - he's overweight and borderline obese*.

Exercise frequency - little/none unless you consider golfing, where he relies heavily on a golf cart. He's famously berated exercise, even saying he believes exercizing uses up the limited number of beats the human heart can give.

Diet - he neither smokes nor drinks, but is very fond of fast food. He's been said to eschew fruits and veggies from his diet.

Conclusions:  He has pretty good genes, with premature deaths in his family can be chalked up to unfortunate circumstances (his grandfather's contraction of the 'spanish flu,' or his brother's alcoholism).  He also doesn't smoke or drink.  Beyond that he has several bad indicators, namely his weight, diet and lack of exercise.
Going into the SSI's life expectancy tables a white male born the same year as Trump has a life expectancy (50% probability) of living to age 86.0. 

I can't find any good data detailing whether family history or personal history (e.g. weight/exercise regime) is more important for a septigenarian, but my personal inclination is that he's slightly less likely to live to 86 than your average 72 year old (though it should be noted that many other people his age are similarily overweight and exercise infrequently).

In the end probabilities don't matter when it's one individual. He has about as much chance of living to age 90 as he does dying before his 80th birthday.

*Trump revealed on 'Dr Oz' that he is 6-foot-3 and weighs 236 pounds, which gives him a BMI of 29.5 - worth noting his 2012 driver's license lists him at 6'2" (which would put him as Obese). People generally get shorter in their 70s, not taller.

source: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Body.html

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4694 on: November 01, 2018, 02:49:48 PM »

Is there evidence that he's in poor health? Lately Presidents live to nice, old ages. Nixon died at 81, and every President after him who died passed 90.

I don't think there's any reason to assume that being president affords you a greater life expectancy than other well-to-do individuals, and the sample size of those born after WWII and vaccinations is so small (n=4) that we can't infer anything.

As a whole, the major factors which are good predictors of life expectancy include family history, weight, exercise frequency, and diet. 

Family history - his parents (Fred & Mary) lived to 93 and 88, respectively.  His grandparents lived to 49 (Frederick, influenza), 88 (Mary), 92 (Mary MacLeod) and 88 (Malcom MacLeod).  He has five siblings; one died (Fred Jr) at age 43 due to alcoholism.

Weight - he's overweight and borderline obese*.

Exercise frequency - little/none unless you consider golfing, where he relies heavily on a golf cart. He's famously berated exercise, even saying he believes exercizing uses up the limited number of beats the human heart can give.

Diet - he neither smokes nor drinks, but is very fond of fast food. He's been said to eschew fruits and veggies from his diet.

Conclusions:  He has pretty good genes, with premature deaths in his family can be chalked up to unfortunate circumstances (his grandfather's contraction of the 'spanish flu,' or his brother's alcoholism).  He also doesn't smoke or drink.  Beyond that he has several bad indicators, namely his weight, diet and lack of exercise.
Going into the SSI's life expectancy tables a white male born the same year as Trump has a life expectancy (50% probability) of living to age 86.0. 

I can't find any good data detailing whether family history or personal history (e.g. weight/exercise regime) is more important for a septigenarian, but my personal inclination is that he's slightly less likely to live to 86 than your average 72 year old (though it should be noted that many other people his age are similarily overweight and exercise infrequently).

In the end probabilities don't matter when it's one individual. He has about as much chance of living to age 90 as he does dying before his 80th birthday.

*Trump revealed on 'Dr Oz' that he is 6-foot-3 and weighs 236 pounds, which gives him a BMI of 29.5 - worth noting his 2012 driver's license lists him at 6'2" (which would put him as Obese). People generally get shorter in their 70s, not taller.

source: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Body.html

Trump "revealed" his weight. Just like he "reveals" plenty of things.

There is no way in hell he is only 236 pounds. The dude IS obese, not borderline so.


nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4695 on: November 01, 2018, 03:05:15 PM »
Trump "revealed" his weight. Just like he "reveals" plenty of things.

There is no way in hell he is only 236 pounds. The dude IS obese, not borderline so.

I tend to agree, but when it comes to his health we know about as much as we do about his taxes. 
WaPo did a whole series are articles on it - in one they asked five people with experience in estimating people's weights what they thought he weighed, and the estimates were between 228-260, with the core of the guesses hovering around 250.  It's also telling that he previously listed his height at 6'2", and only claimed 6'3" when it allowed him to just squeek under the obesity mark according to his weight (which he also provided and no one can precisely verify).
It's also not uncommon for someone his size to go up and down 5-10lbs.

Regardless, everyone (Trump included) seems to acknowledge he's at least 46lbs overweight according to standard BMI charts.  Could easily be 60lbs.  Given that he's not terribly active and is unlikely to have much muscle mass, its probably even worse than this.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4696 on: November 01, 2018, 03:27:15 PM »
I thought it was just sort of assumed that Trump's reported weight was total bullshit.

I'm 6'4" and will fluctuate between 210 and 220 over the course of the year, and I'm pretty sure I would have to gain at least 40 or 50 pounds to look as fat as Donald Trump does.  Just his neck all by itself adds like three pounds.  I know a bunch of other dudes who are roughly my size, and the ones who look as fat as Trump weigh more like 255.  236 is a farce.  I doubt he could cut to 236 for a fight weigh in, where it's common to lose at least ten pounds in three days.

But what does it matter?  So he's fat, I don't care.  Churchill was fat.  Santa Clause is fat.  Being fat isn't his problem.  If the real problem here is that he lied about his weight, is this really the one and only lie that Donald Trump has told that has people upset?  Like we somehow don't care about every other sentence that comes out of his mouth?


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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4698 on: November 01, 2018, 03:45:41 PM »
Again, I work w naked old ppl and I’ve got a fairly good eye for body habitus guessing (like a carnival worker) and he is at least 270-280


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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4699 on: November 01, 2018, 03:48:22 PM »
I thought it was just sort of assumed that Trump's reported weight was total bullshit.

I'm 6'4" and will fluctuate between 210 and 220 over the course of the year, and I'm pretty sure I would have to gain at least 40 or 50 pounds to look as fat as Donald Trump does.  Just his neck all by itself adds like three pounds.  I know a bunch of other dudes who are roughly my size, and the ones who look as fat as Trump weigh more like 255.  236 is a farce.  I doubt he could cut to 236 for a fight weigh in, where it's common to lose at least ten pounds in three days.

But what does it matter?  So he's fat, I don't care.  Churchill was fat.  Santa Clause is fat.  Being fat isn't his problem.  If the real problem here is that he lied about his weight, is this really the one and only lie that Donald Trump has told that has people upset?  Like we somehow don't care about every other sentence that comes out of his mouth?

The discussion came up because people were saying he’s in great health and I commented that obese people do not typically reach their 80s. It ha nothing to do with his lies.


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