Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 374208 times)

shenlong55

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4600 on: October 27, 2018, 04:36:15 PM »
Why the switch to generalities at this point in the conversation?  Couldn't find any examples of environmentalist politicians inciting violence like Trump does?  Maybe because they don't exist and your just trying to play the "both sides" game?
Because using the actions of a crazy person to denigrate anything said person may support is sophistry, regardless of which side does it.

Interesting point of view.

Not only did people denigrate him, but Charles Manson served time for multiple homicides that he wasn't physically present for, performed by his supporters.  His supporters were 'crazy' by just about any definition of the word I've ever heard.  Did Manson deserve to do jail time for the murders committed by crazy people?  The legal system decided an emphatic 'Yes'.  You appear to be arguing that he should not have been accountable . . . because 'crazy people'.
You may be misreading. 

Yes, we can let the legal system deal with the issue of accountability for what the crazy person had done himself.

What I'm saying is that "we know environmentalists are wrong: just look at the Unabomber" is just as sophistic as "we know Republicans are wrong: just look at the current bomber."

Oh, I get it now.  You're just conflating Republican policies with Trump's actions because it's easy to defend Republican policies but not so much for his actions.  Or, if not, maybe you could point me in the direction of any post in this thread that blamed the bomber's actions on republican policies and not Trump's divisive and violent rhetoric?

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4601 on: October 27, 2018, 04:40:24 PM »
Oh, I get it now.  You're just conflating Republican policies with Trump's actions because it's easy to defend Republican policies but not so much for his actions.  Or, if not, maybe you could point me in the direction of any post in this thread that blamed the bomber's actions on republican policies and not Trump's divisive and violent rhetoric?

Right, nobody is saying that republican's policies are wrong because of the MAGAbomber.  Those things are unrelated.  We're saying the Trump is wrong for using language that encourages violence like the MAGAbomber.  Those things are very related.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4602 on: October 27, 2018, 06:53:41 PM »
Oh, I get it now.  You're just conflating Republican policies with Trump's actions because it's easy to defend Republican policies but not so much for his actions.  Or, if not, maybe you could point me in the direction of any post in this thread that blamed the bomber's actions on republican policies and not Trump's divisive and violent rhetoric?

Right, nobody is saying that republican's policies are wrong because of the MAGAbomber.  Those things are unrelated.  We're saying the Trump is wrong for using language that encourages violence like the MAGAbomber.  Those things are very related.

To be clear . . . Republican policies are wrong though.  They're just wrong for different reasons than the MAGAbomber is wrong.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4603 on: October 27, 2018, 07:11:07 PM »
I think I can see what you're attempting philisophically but I don't think the reality agrees. It's a slow road and I don't want to end up where it takes us if this is how the trip starts.
Oh, I get it now.  You're just conflating Republican policies with Trump's actions because it's easy to defend Republican policies but not so much for his actions.  Or, if not, maybe you could point me in the direction of any post in this thread that blamed the bomber's actions on republican policies and not Trump's divisive and violent rhetoric?
Right, nobody is saying that republican's policies are wrong because of the MAGAbomber.  Those things are unrelated.  We're saying the Trump is wrong for using language that encourages violence like the MAGAbomber.  Those things are very related.
Ok, we're all in agreement that crazy people should not be used as stalking horses for a larger discussion.  That's all the first post in this side conversation intended.

To be clear . . . Republican policies are wrong though.  They're just wrong for different reasons than the MAGAbomber is wrong.
Ah, now that's a different topic. :)

Unlikely we'll find 100% agreement there, but also unlikely we'll find 0%.  E.g., I quite agree Republicans talk a much better fiscal game when out of power than their actions reveal when in power.

shenlong55

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4604 on: October 27, 2018, 09:54:25 PM »
I think I can see what you're attempting philisophically but I don't think the reality agrees. It's a slow road and I don't want to end up where it takes us if this is how the trip starts.
Oh, I get it now.  You're just conflating Republican policies with Trump's actions because it's easy to defend Republican policies but not so much for his actions.  Or, if not, maybe you could point me in the direction of any post in this thread that blamed the bomber's actions on republican policies and not Trump's divisive and violent rhetoric?
Right, nobody is saying that republican's policies are wrong because of the MAGAbomber.  Those things are unrelated.  We're saying the Trump is wrong for using language that encourages violence like the MAGAbomber.  Those things are very related.
Ok, we're all in agreement that crazy people should not be used as stalking horses for a larger discussion.  That's all the first post in this side conversation intended.

My only question is why you feel the need to say "we shouldn't do 'x'" when nobody was doing 'x'?

accolay

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4605 on: October 27, 2018, 10:02:28 PM »
To be clear . . . Republican policies are wrong though.  They're just wrong for different reasons than the MAGAbomber is wrong.
Ah, now that's a different topic. :)
Unlikely we'll find 100% agreement there, but also unlikely we'll find 0%.

It's really the same topic since The GOP is the Party of Trump. There isn't a policy this administration has crafted that is working for the US as a whole. If there is, I'd love to be enlightended. He is so policy bankrupt that he's taking credit for policy passed during the prior administration:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-greatest-idea-think-ve-230318737.html

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4606 on: October 27, 2018, 10:08:54 PM »
My only question is why you feel the need to say "we shouldn't do 'x'" when nobody was doing 'x'?
Ever do anything "just because"?

Perhaps you're defining "nobody" as "no recent posts in this particular thread."  If so, you may be correct.  With a more generic definition of "nobody", however, ....

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4607 on: October 27, 2018, 10:12:17 PM »
To be clear . . . Republican policies are wrong though.  They're just wrong for different reasons than the MAGAbomber is wrong.
Ah, now that's a different topic. :)
Unlikely we'll find 100% agreement there, but also unlikely we'll find 0%.

It's really the same topic....
Perhaps examine the entire post from which you excerpted the quoted portion to see the comparison in question.  It's really not the same.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4608 on: October 29, 2018, 07:18:46 AM »
there may still be some room to eek some conspiracy out of this. While I suspect lone wolf will ultimately prevail, I suspect a strong undercurrent for PATSY.

...
Nothing sticks to Trump anymore because he's already fully covered in scandal, and I think it will take historians several generations to finally unpack all of the layers of corruption he has brought to the most powerful office in the world.

We have fodder for decades of investigative journalism, that's for sure.

I'm struggling to see what Trump's end-game might be here. Right now his businesses are propped up by those wanting to be in his good graces and as long as he is president the GOP has his back, but what happens after he leaves office? Why would the Saudi's book events at his hotel when no longer is a conduit to government? Why would the GOP continue to defend and deny evidence of his worst impulses? What will keep foreign leaders from dumping on him post-office?

Why would he ever leave office? Many two-term Presidents were popular enough to win re-election to a third term (think Reagan). I've observed nothing about Trump to indicate he'd willingly surrender a prestige property like the Oval Office.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4609 on: October 29, 2018, 07:47:56 AM »
there may still be some room to eek some conspiracy out of this. While I suspect lone wolf will ultimately prevail, I suspect a strong undercurrent for PATSY.

...
Nothing sticks to Trump anymore because he's already fully covered in scandal, and I think it will take historians several generations to finally unpack all of the layers of corruption he has brought to the most powerful office in the world.

We have fodder for decades of investigative journalism, that's for sure.

I'm struggling to see what Trump's end-game might be here. Right now his businesses are propped up by those wanting to be in his good graces and as long as he is president the GOP has his back, but what happens after he leaves office? Why would the Saudi's book events at his hotel when no longer is a conduit to government? Why would the GOP continue to defend and deny evidence of his worst impulses? What will keep foreign leaders from dumping on him post-office?

Why would he ever leave office? Many two-term Presidents were popular enough to win re-election to a third term (think Reagan). I've observed nothing about Trump to indicate he'd willingly surrender a prestige property like the Oval Office.

term limits? He can't get a third term without changing or violating the constitution (for added input, see discussion upthread wit Kyle and Sol about this very matter).

Also, there's a lot of people who think Trump never actually wanted to win, and that he's not particularly happy being president, and that his branding (particularly Trump hotels and golf courses) are having a much harder time now, with many losing money.

Trump likes the pomp and title but not the job.

IMO the craftiest thing the GOP could do right now would be to come up with a way for Trump to not run again while putting up a died-in-the-wool conservative republican candidate. It's the best chance they have of holding the WH for another 10 years and locking a very convservative supreme court down for over a generation (RGB & Breyer are both in tehir 80s, Thomas in his 70s).  If Trump voluntarily doesn't run could hold the WH in both 2020 and 2024. Otherwise it's going to be an ugly fight both in the primaries and the general election, and the Dems will have a better shot in '24 (no incumbent) and probably in '20 as well.

Aelias

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4610 on: October 29, 2018, 08:21:43 AM »

IMO the craftiest thing the GOP could do right now would be to come up with a way for Trump to not run again while putting up a died-in-the-wool conservative republican candidate. It's the best chance they have of holding the WH for another 10 years and locking a very convservative supreme court down for over a generation (RGB & Breyer are both in tehir 80s, Thomas in his 70s).  If Trump voluntarily doesn't run could hold the WH in both 2020 and 2024. Otherwise it's going to be an ugly fight both in the primaries and the general election, and the Dems will have a better shot in '24 (no incumbent) and probably in '20 as well.

Oh, that is crafty.  There was talk during the campaign that Trump planned to launch Trump TV as an arm of conservative media after his anticipated loss.  I can totally see him stepping aside, installing a successor, and then running a TV network where he can continue to project his worldview. This way, he gets the attention and admiration he craves, with none of the boring policy stuff of being president.  I think Pence is the obvious successor, and would be MORE than happy to take on the mantle.

This is the darkest timeline. 

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4611 on: October 29, 2018, 08:51:07 AM »

IMO the craftiest thing the GOP could do right now would be to come up with a way for Trump to not run again while putting up a died-in-the-wool conservative republican candidate. It's the best chance they have of holding the WH for another 10 years and locking a very convservative supreme court down for over a generation (RGB & Breyer are both in tehir 80s, Thomas in his 70s).  If Trump voluntarily doesn't run could hold the WH in both 2020 and 2024. Otherwise it's going to be an ugly fight both in the primaries and the general election, and the Dems will have a better shot in '24 (no incumbent) and probably in '20 as well.

Oh God that would be awful.

Oh, that is crafty.  There was talk during the campaign that Trump planned to launch Trump TV as an arm of conservative media after his anticipated loss.  I can totally see him stepping aside, installing a successor, and then running a TV network where he can continue to project his worldview. This way, he gets the attention and admiration he craves, with none of the boring policy stuff of being president.  I think Pence is the obvious successor, and would be MORE than happy to take on the mantle.

This is the darkest timeline.

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4612 on: October 29, 2018, 09:08:39 AM »

IMO the craftiest thing the GOP could do right now would be to come up with a way for Trump to not run again while putting up a died-in-the-wool conservative republican candidate. It's the best chance they have of holding the WH for another 10 years and locking a very convservative supreme court down for over a generation (RGB & Breyer are both in tehir 80s, Thomas in his 70s).  If Trump voluntarily doesn't run could hold the WH in both 2020 and 2024. Otherwise it's going to be an ugly fight both in the primaries and the general election, and the Dems will have a better shot in '24 (no incumbent) and probably in '20 as well.

Oh, that is crafty.  There was talk during the campaign that Trump planned to launch Trump TV as an arm of conservative media after his anticipated loss.  I can totally see him stepping aside, installing a successor, and then running a TV network where he can continue to project his worldview. This way, he gets the attention and admiration he craves, with none of the boring policy stuff of being president.  I think Pence is the obvious successor, and would be MORE than happy to take on the mantle.

This is the darkest timeline.

Could Trump run as VP to Pence in 2020?

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4613 on: October 29, 2018, 09:13:37 AM »

IMO the craftiest thing the GOP could do right now would be to come up with a way for Trump to not run again while putting up a died-in-the-wool conservative republican candidate. It's the best chance they have of holding the WH for another 10 years and locking a very convservative supreme court down for over a generation (RGB & Breyer are both in tehir 80s, Thomas in his 70s).  If Trump voluntarily doesn't run could hold the WH in both 2020 and 2024. Otherwise it's going to be an ugly fight both in the primaries and the general election, and the Dems will have a better shot in '24 (no incumbent) and probably in '20 as well.

Oh, that is crafty.  There was talk during the campaign that Trump planned to launch Trump TV as an arm of conservative media after his anticipated loss.  I can totally see him stepping aside, installing a successor, and then running a TV network where he can continue to project his worldview. This way, he gets the attention and admiration he craves, with none of the boring policy stuff of being president.  I think Pence is the obvious successor, and would be MORE than happy to take on the mantle.

This is the darkest timeline.

Could Trump run as VP to Pence in 2020?

Probably?  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/06/could-joe-biden-pick-barack-obama-as-his-running-mate-yes-but/?utm_term=.a5c598706ded

Aelias

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4614 on: October 29, 2018, 09:30:00 AM »

IMO the craftiest thing the GOP could do right now would be to come up with a way for Trump to not run again while putting up a died-in-the-wool conservative republican candidate. It's the best chance they have of holding the WH for another 10 years and locking a very convservative supreme court down for over a generation (RGB & Breyer are both in tehir 80s, Thomas in his 70s).  If Trump voluntarily doesn't run could hold the WH in both 2020 and 2024. Otherwise it's going to be an ugly fight both in the primaries and the general election, and the Dems will have a better shot in '24 (no incumbent) and probably in '20 as well.

Oh, that is crafty.  There was talk during the campaign that Trump planned to launch Trump TV as an arm of conservative media after his anticipated loss.  I can totally see him stepping aside, installing a successor, and then running a TV network where he can continue to project his worldview. This way, he gets the attention and admiration he craves, with none of the boring policy stuff of being president.  I think Pence is the obvious successor, and would be MORE than happy to take on the mantle.

This is the darkest timeline.

Could Trump run as VP to Pence in 2020?

Lol - Trump's ego cannot stand being second place to anyone, let alone someone who used to be his subordinate.  And again, the whole point is to get away from all the boring policy stuff so he can devote himself full time to his particular brand of yelling-tainment.


nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4615 on: October 29, 2018, 09:34:02 AM »

Could Trump run as VP to Pence in 2020?

There's no constitutional reason why he can't, only whether his ego would allow him to take 2nd billing.  It would also set a new precedent, though that's not something Trump has shied away from.
Based on his ego, I think it would be more likely he'd take a job like Sec of State.  Heck, since he's "probably smarter than the generals" maybe Sec Defense.

In truth, I'm having a hard time seeing what might get him to step down, even though I honestly don't think Trump wants another four years of this (particularly if Dems win the house and spend 2 years investigating and prying into his business and affairs). But he's proud and he fears looking weak and he'll fight anyone who directly challenges him even when they both might want the same thing.

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4616 on: October 29, 2018, 10:16:35 AM »

IMO the craftiest thing the GOP could do right now would be to come up with a way for Trump to not run again while putting up a died-in-the-wool conservative republican candidate. It's the best chance they have of holding the WH for another 10 years and locking a very convservative supreme court down for over a generation (RGB & Breyer are both in tehir 80s, Thomas in his 70s).  If Trump voluntarily doesn't run could hold the WH in both 2020 and 2024. Otherwise it's going to be an ugly fight both in the primaries and the general election, and the Dems will have a better shot in '24 (no incumbent) and probably in '20 as well.

Oh, that is crafty.  There was talk during the campaign that Trump planned to launch Trump TV as an arm of conservative media after his anticipated loss.  I can totally see him stepping aside, installing a successor, and then running a TV network where he can continue to project his worldview. This way, he gets the attention and admiration he craves, with none of the boring policy stuff of being president.  I think Pence is the obvious successor, and would be MORE than happy to take on the mantle.

This is the darkest timeline.

Could Trump run as VP to Pence in 2020?

Lol - Trump's ego cannot stand being second place to anyone, let alone someone who used to be his subordinate.  And again, the whole point is to get away from all the boring policy stuff so he can devote himself full time to his particular brand of yelling-tainment.

Pence could resign and then Trump would be president again.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4617 on: October 29, 2018, 10:23:33 AM »


Could Trump run as VP to Pence in 2020?
Seems like that system worked well for Putin and Medvedev. Remember that?

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4618 on: October 29, 2018, 10:30:04 AM »

Pence could resign and then Trump would be president again.

Technically yes, but we're getting into some mind-bending hypothetical scenarios.  The 22nd amendment limits how many times an individual can be elected president to two, but IF his ego allowed him run as a  VP and IF Pence won and IF Pence decided to step down, yes, he would be president again. Given the wording of the 22nd amendment it seems he could only serve as president after Pence steps down for 2 years if re-elected in 2020.

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once.

Seems like that system worked well for Putin and Medvedev. Remember that?
Except that our laws are not the same as Russia's.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4619 on: October 29, 2018, 10:38:43 AM »
I thought this was a good read decoding some of the anti-semitic bullshit flying under the radar in the open over on Fox news these days:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-country-awash-in-foxs-dark-toxins

ETA this throwback article to 2016:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-rolls-out-anti-semitic-closing-ad
« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 11:07:45 AM by Glenstache »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4620 on: October 29, 2018, 10:55:35 AM »
Maybe the question we should be asking ourselves is:

Can Trump nominate himself to the Supreme Court?

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4621 on: October 29, 2018, 11:02:06 AM »
Except that our laws are not the same as Russia's.

Why is everyone still acting like our laws still matter?  Let's not forget that Trump is blatantly in violation of federal nepotism laws by appointing his daughter and son in law to white house positions, and blatantly in violation of the constitution's emoluments clause by taking direct payments from foreign governments.  I won't even get into the lesser laws he has violated, like for example all of the sexual assault cases, or the petty civil laws like the Trump University fraud case.

Anyone who says Trump can't run for a third term isn't paying attention.  The defining feature of this administration is figuring out how to bypass existing laws.  The ACA is law, but he's defunding it anyway.  Amnesty for political refugees is law, but he's denying it anyway.  Paying the contractors who built your casino is law, but he's renegged on them six different times.  Trump doesn't care what some piece of paper says you're supposed to do, he only cares about what he can get away with in this moment, under these particular circumstances, to advance his own interests.  He's spent his entire life skirting the law, constantly probing which laws don't really apply to him or can't be enforced, or figuring out who he has to buy off in order to avoid consequences for breaking the law and calculating the cost of the buying vs the cost of the consequences. 

Most of the time, Trump is merely breaking "norms" instead of laws.  Like appointing a pedophile to be a judge or an Alabama Senator isn't technically illegal because there is no statute against it, it's just a really bad idea that no one else would dare try.  Like asking the director of the FBI to quash an investigation into a political ally guilty of collaborating with a hostile foreign power isn't exactly illegal, unless you put it in writing but doing it verbally is apparently fine.  Trump walks this line constantly, always figuring out exactly how much we can get away with.  Running for a third term is just as illegal as laundering money for the Russia mob or taking bribes from the Saudis, but just like in those cases who exactly is going to stop him?  You?  What are you going to do?  The levers of power are beyond your control.  Republicans control congress and they won't do shit.

To run for a third term, Trump would have to get on the ballot in the same states that he won last time, all of which already support him and most of which have republican governors.  The rest of them could be arm-twisted, and blue states can be safely ignored.  He could say the crazy liberals in Minnesota were subverting the will of the people by keeping him off the ballot, and then withhold all of the state's federal highway or education funds as punishment.  This is how dictators operate, first through cajoling and then through punishments.

It's not exactly a sure thing by any means, but I also think it's dangerous to just say "well this could never happen in America, we have the Constitution" when we have a President who routinely breaks every law he can get away with and some that the can't.  Don't count on Trump's tenure ending at 8 years just because every previous president's tenure has ended at 8 years.  You have to get out and vote, make your voice heard, and stand up for our democracy.  Otherwise, he's going to continue tearing down our country one brick at a time.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4622 on: October 29, 2018, 11:08:36 AM »
Maybe the question we should be asking ourselves is:

Can Trump nominate himself to the Supreme Court?

I doubt it, by why would he even want to?  Justices don't get to travel around in fancy planes, they don't meet foreign dictators, and they can only opine on the cases brought before them (which involve listening to other people talk in detail, often for hours). While dignified, SCOTUS offices are nothing like the West Wing. Unless he could somehow demote Roberts he'd be an associate judge.  He'd also have to share power with a black guy and three women (one of whom is a Latina).

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4623 on: October 29, 2018, 11:10:36 AM »
Maybe the question we should be asking ourselves is:

Can Trump nominate himself to the Supreme Court?

I doubt it, by why would he even want to?  Justices don't get to travel around in fancy planes, they don't meet foreign dictators, and they can only opine on the cases brought before them (which involve listening to other people talk in detail, often for hours). While dignified, SCOTUS offices are nothing like the West Wing. Unless he could somehow demote Roberts he'd be an associate judge.  He'd also have to share power with a black guy and three women (one of whom is a Latina).

Exactly. Plus, he'd only be one of nine. And, he'd actually have to work.

Aelias

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4624 on: October 29, 2018, 11:43:25 AM »
Maybe the question we should be asking ourselves is:

Can Trump nominate himself to the Supreme Court?

I doubt it, by why would he even want to?  Justices don't get to travel around in fancy planes, they don't meet foreign dictators, and they can only opine on the cases brought before them (which involve listening to other people talk in detail, often for hours). While dignified, SCOTUS offices are nothing like the West Wing. Unless he could somehow demote Roberts he'd be an associate judge.  He'd also have to share power with a black guy and three women (one of whom is a Latina).

There's no way Trump can read and understand a SCOTUS opinion, let alone write one.  They don't even get to do rallies!

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4625 on: October 29, 2018, 11:46:13 AM »
Except that our laws are not the same as Russia's.

Why is everyone still acting like our laws still matter?  Let's not forget that Trump is blatantly in violation of federal nepotism laws by appointing his daughter and son in law to white house positions, and blatantly in violation of the constitution's emoluments clause by taking direct payments from foreign governments.  I won't even get into the lesser laws he has violated, like for example all of the sexual assault cases, or the petty civil laws like the Trump University fraud case.

Anyone who says Trump can't run for a third term isn't paying attention.  The defining feature of this administration is figuring out how to bypass existing laws.  The ACA is law, but he's defunding it anyway.  Amnesty for political refugees is law, but he's denying it anyway.  Paying the contractors who built your casino is law, but he's renegged on them six different times.  Trump doesn't care what some piece of paper says you're supposed to do, he only cares about what he can get away with in this moment, under these particular circumstances, to advance his own interests.  He's spent his entire life skirting the law, constantly probing which laws don't really apply to him or can't be enforced, or figuring out who he has to buy off in order to avoid consequences for breaking the law and calculating the cost of the buying vs the cost of the consequences. 

Most of the time, Trump is merely breaking "norms" instead of laws.  Like appointing a pedophile to be a judge or an Alabama Senator isn't technically illegal because there is no statute against it, it's just a really bad idea that no one else would dare try.  Like asking the director of the FBI to quash an investigation into a political ally guilty of collaborating with a hostile foreign power isn't exactly illegal, unless you put it in writing but doing it verbally is apparently fine.  Trump walks this line constantly, always figuring out exactly how much we can get away with.  Running for a third term is just as illegal as laundering money for the Russia mob or taking bribes from the Saudis, but just like in those cases who exactly is going to stop him?  You?  What are you going to do?  The levers of power are beyond your control.  Republicans control congress and they won't do shit.

To run for a third term, Trump would have to get on the ballot in the same states that he won last time, all of which already support him and most of which have republican governors.  The rest of them could be arm-twisted, and blue states can be safely ignored.  He could say the crazy liberals in Minnesota were subverting the will of the people by keeping him off the ballot, and then withhold all of the state's federal highway or education funds as punishment.  This is how dictators operate, first through cajoling and then through punishments.

It's not exactly a sure thing by any means, but I also think it's dangerous to just say "well this could never happen in America, we have the Constitution" when we have a President who routinely breaks every law he can get away with and some that the can't.  Don't count on Trump's tenure ending at 8 years just because every previous president's tenure has ended at 8 years.  You have to get out and vote, make your voice heard, and stand up for our democracy.  Otherwise, he's going to continue tearing down our country one brick at a time.

You are angry @sol, I get that.  We've watched as Trump has violated both political norms and laws, and you've concluded that laws no longer matter, that the constitution no longer holds any power, that Trump can do whatever he wants without fear of any punishment.

I'm not ready crawl down that rabbit hole. It often takes years for transgressions to be prosecuted, particularly for people of higher office.  Nixon ordered the break-in at Watergate in June, 1970.  He didn't resign until August 9th, 1974 - more than four years later.  The incident which lead to Bill Clinton's (for later obstruction and perjury) impeachment occurred in 1994, but his impeachment did not start until Dec 1998. In both cases the coverup became more significant that the underlying crime. Scooter Libby leaked Plame's identity but remained on the job in Bush's White House for another two years until convicted of obstruction and perjury (I'm noting a pattern in the convictions here...) In the cut-and-dry case of Rod Blagojevich, he had been under investigation for four years, and it took almost 2 years after he tried to sell Obama's senate seat for him to be removed, even with a very cut-and-dry case with tons of evidence.  In the sexual assault sphere, Cosby, Weinstein, numerous clergy and others survived for decades on their influence and power. I could go on...

The judicial system is rarely fast.  Congress is supposed to be the check on the executive branch and the voters a check on congress.  So far we haven't even completed one 1/3 cycle of congress, so voters have not yet had time to be any kind of check - we shall see what happens next week and in 2020.  Allegations keep piling up and several civil cases against DJT are moving through the courts. At least two investigations (Mueller's and the Senate Intelligence Committee) are ongoing. It's not as fast as you or I might like, but that doesn't mean it won't happen or that the process is moving more slowly than is typical.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4626 on: October 29, 2018, 12:18:15 PM »
Maybe the question we should be asking ourselves is:

Can Trump nominate himself to the Supreme Court?

I doubt it, by why would he even want to?  Justices don't get to travel around in fancy planes, they don't meet foreign dictators, and they can only opine on the cases brought before them (which involve listening to other people talk in detail, often for hours). While dignified, SCOTUS offices are nothing like the West Wing. Unless he could somehow demote Roberts he'd be an associate judge.  He'd also have to share power with a black guy and three women (one of whom is a Latina).

There's no way Trump can read and understand a SCOTUS opinion, let alone write one.  They don't even get to do rallies!

Ok, those are very rational arguments. But this is meant to be dystopian speculation, and we are talking about a less than perfectly rational player here. Here's how it could go down. Justice Roberts again provides a critical vote to "save" something that Trump rails against (another ACA vote, maybe something procedural involving the Trump fraud and coverup scandals). Trump whips up the votes to remove Roberts, nominates and installs himself as the new Chief Justice near the end of his term, in time to provide critical cover for his pre and post election scandals (his qualifications include the fact that his sister was until recently an appellate judge, and he's clearly smarter and more successful than her). Trump then moves to televise SCOTUS oral arguments, opines loudly and authoritatively on all subjects for his new television The Clerkship: Supreme Court Edition, and of course somehow profits from all of this. DJT Jr and/or Ivanka will of course take over the 2020 nomination.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4627 on: October 29, 2018, 12:32:25 PM »
The judicial system is rarely fast. 

I am entirely unconvinced that Trump will ever face consequences for his actions.  Republicans in Congress have fully backed him despite is continued destruction of American insitutions, and I think that democrats retaking control of congress is the only way we avoid a Mugabe or Castro or Putin situation in the US.  Unfortunately, foreign interference in our elections is ongoing and republican voter suppression efforts like the one in Georgia right now are effective and completely unchecked.  What can democrats due about rigged elections when republicans control all aspects of government and use that power to perpetuate their own continued power?

So I'm not at all hopeful about the upcoming midterms.  We already know that republicans control both houses of congress (and the presidency and now the supreme court) despite getting a minority of the vote that does get counted, and we don't know how many other people were prevented from voting by similar tactics.  I think we've tipped past the start of that slippery slope and it's all down hill from here.  I expect republicans to continue "cleansing" voter rolls of minorities.  I expect a republican stacked court system to exclude immigrants and amplify the votes of rural whites.  I expect a republican president who didn't win a majority to support republican candidates who don't win majorities, and yet republicans will continue to rule all aspects of the US government without any real opposition.  I expect the percentage of republicans taking office after the midterm elections to by at least 10% different from the exit polling, due to hacked voting machines, gerrymandering, and court challenges to exclude some ballots.

I think democrats could win the midterms by a 10% margin and still gain nothing.  It won't surprise me at all if democrats receive a majority of the national popular vote and still fail to retake either house.  Republican power is fully entrenched right now and they have shown no signs of allowing the will of the people to change that.  The "nuclear option" for court nominees is just the beginning, and now that the filibuster is dead the Senate is basically just a more conservative version of the House.

So what if Trump does get indicted in three more years?  How does that help children kept in cages at the border?  How does that help sexual assault survivors who watch their assailants get promoted by other sexual assault perpetrators into positions of power over other sexual assault survivors?  How does that roll back the deficit-busting tax cuts for the rich, and how does it restore health insurance coverage to the hundreds of thousands of families who weren't able to enroll in the newly abbreviated sign-up window?  Is he going to return all those bribes to the Saudis, or retroactively fire Jared Kushner from the white house staff?  Trump is actively destroying American values and congressional republicans are gleefully encouraging him to do it, just because they think it will help them solidify and perpetuate centuries of white male power in government.  Women lose.  Brown people lose.  LBGT people lose.  Immigrants lose.  Poor people lose.  Trump wins.  Government "by the people" my ass.

You are angry @sol

Ummmm, yea.  What gave it away?

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4628 on: October 29, 2018, 01:11:23 PM »
The judicial system is rarely fast. 

I am entirely unconvinced that Trump will ever face consequences for his actions. 

Well, we'll find whether he does or not in the next 2 - 4 years. Unless he dies beforehand I'm guessing he'll have to atone for at least a few of his transgressions of the last two years.  A lot will depend on whether the Dems retake the house and can fulfill their constitutional check by utilizing their investigative and subpoena powers. Devin Nunes just doesn't seem up to the task (shocker!)

I'm guessing this is one instance where you'll be glad to get an 'I told you so' down the line... 
If Trump installs himself as dictator for life feel free to do the same; I'll be in cell-block D, along with all the other climatologists.  We might even be cellmates!

accolay

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sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4630 on: October 29, 2018, 04:26:50 PM »
More of the "Trump Defense." Cute.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kansas-terror-plot-trump-anti-muslim_us_5bd742ebe4b055bc948ef751

I think it's about time we re-evaluated the country's terror threat.  Instead of profiling middle-easterners, perhaps we should be looking at aggrieved middle-aged white dudes who own AR-15s and watch Fox News.  Because that appears to be who's doing most of the mass killing in America today.  Muslims and Jews, the traditional boogeymen for racist white Americans, are now the victims of hate crimes and terroristic threats.

Not so funny when the shoe is on the other foot, is it?  Muslims that I know were mortified when a conservative cleric would advocate violence against westerners.  They recognized that extremists from their own faith were giving all Muslims a bad name, but that certainly didn't stop them from being targeted with racial slurs at the grocery store.  How much longer do we have to watch angry white dudes gun down crowds of people before American Muslims can start shouting "go back to Europe" or BLM activists can hold up signs that say "God Hates Crackers"?

There's a lot of evil in the world today.  I don't think it's in the places the President keeps saying it is, though.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 04:32:24 PM by sol »

pbkmaine

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4631 on: October 29, 2018, 04:36:59 PM »
More of the "Trump Defense." Cute.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kansas-terror-plot-trump-anti-muslim_us_5bd742ebe4b055bc948ef751

I think it's about time we re-evaluated the country's terror threat.  Instead of profiling middle-easterners, perhaps we should be looking at aggrieved middle-aged white dudes who own AR-15s and watch Fox News.  Because that appears to be who's doing most of the mass killing in America today.  Muslims and Jews, the traditional boogeymen for racist white Americans, are now the victims of hate crimes and terroristic threats.

Not so funny when the shoe is on the other foot, is it?  Muslims that I know were mortified when a conservative cleric would advocate violence against westerners.  They recognized that extremists from their own faith were giving all Muslims a bad name, but that certainly didn't stop them from being targeted with racial slurs at the grocery store.  How much longer do we have to watch angry white dudes gun down crowds of people before American Muslims can start shouting "go back to Europe" or BLM activists can hold up signs that say "God Hates Crackers"?

There's a lot of evil in the world today.  I don't think it's in the places the President keeps saying it is, though.

I agree completely.

accolay

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4632 on: October 29, 2018, 05:26:04 PM »
perhaps we should be looking at aggrieved middle-aged white dudes who own AR-15s and watch Fox News.
You were saying?
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/10/29/npr-killing-of-2-at-kentucky-supermarket-is-being-investigated-as-hate-crim

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4633 on: October 29, 2018, 05:46:07 PM »
perhaps we should be looking at aggrieved middle-aged white dudes who own AR-15s and watch Fox News.
You were saying?
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/10/29/npr-killing-of-2-at-kentucky-supermarket-is-being-investigated-as-hate-crim

Is that another aggrieved white dude going on a shooting speed in the age of Trump?  Shocking!

Are we tired of winning yet?

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4634 on: October 29, 2018, 06:42:53 PM »
More of the "Trump Defense." Cute.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kansas-terror-plot-trump-anti-muslim_us_5bd742ebe4b055bc948ef751

I think it's about time we re-evaluated the country's terror threat.  Instead of profiling middle-easterners, perhaps we should be looking at aggrieved middle-aged white dudes who own AR-15s and watch Fox News.  Because that appears to be who's doing most of the mass killing in America today.  Muslims and Jews, the traditional boogeymen for racist white Americans, are now the victims of hate crimes and terroristic threats.

Not so funny when the shoe is on the other foot, is it?  Muslims that I know were mortified when a conservative cleric would advocate violence against westerners.  They recognized that extremists from their own faith were giving all Muslims a bad name, but that certainly didn't stop them from being targeted with racial slurs at the grocery store.  How much longer do we have to watch angry white dudes gun down crowds of people before American Muslims can start shouting "go back to Europe" or BLM activists can hold up signs that say "God Hates Crackers"?

There's a lot of evil in the world today.  I don't think it's in the places the President keeps saying it is, though.

Yep!

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4635 on: October 29, 2018, 09:22:25 PM »
perhaps we should be looking at aggrieved middle-aged white dudes who own AR-15s and watch Fox News.
You were saying?
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/10/29/npr-killing-of-2-at-kentucky-supermarket-is-being-investigated-as-hate-crim

Is that another aggrieved white dude going on a shooting speed in the age of Trump?  Shocking!

Are we tired of winning yet?

Sadly he may end up getting re-elected, which is by definition he is winning. Unless we vote him out, everyone else is losing but he is winning.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4636 on: October 30, 2018, 05:40:39 AM »
Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4637 on: October 30, 2018, 05:52:50 AM »
Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.

He can do whatever he wants if no one stops him.

And the GOP is in control. They will not stop him.

Vote.


nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4638 on: October 30, 2018, 06:28:26 AM »
Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.

Can he actually do this? 
Yes and no - with the full force of the federal government behind him he could probably push this through and have ICE enforced it for a time, punting untold numbers of people (including children, young adults and potentially older adults) out.  But it's going to set up one hell of a constitutional fight, which of course could take years. Meanwhile some states (e.g. California) would be likely to offer sanctuary, setting up another fight which I'm sure DJT would love to have.  Sending them 'back' is going to be a challenge - back where? To a country that might not want to give them residency?  What happens when a child was born from a mother illegally here from Guatemala and the father was from Peru?

"The guys is unreal with the evil things he comes up with"
- let's not give him too much credit.  Trump didn't come up with this, he's just puppeting what the xenophobes have been saying for decades about 'anchor babies' and how these people aren't "real americans" because they were brought here (in utero or still in egg/sperm form) illegally. Tucker Carlson routinely brings this kind of crap up, and no doubt that's where Trump got this idea.  It's also a common talking point among the white nationalists; where only native-born white christians are 'true' americans.

toganet

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4639 on: October 30, 2018, 06:49:19 AM »
Maybe it's time for Google and Facebook to actually start discriminating against "conservative" viewpoints -- by doing things like checking facts, and minimizing hate speech.  If Fox News doesn't have to report the truth, and can act as a megaphone for xenophobes and hate-mongerers, why should social media companies and search engines be held to a higher standard?

jim555

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4640 on: October 30, 2018, 06:51:09 AM »
Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.
No he can't do this by EO.  The courts will strike this.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4641 on: October 30, 2018, 07:05:00 AM »
Maybe someone should check Trumps family tree to see if they all came here legally.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4642 on: October 30, 2018, 07:23:09 AM »
Maybe someone should check Trumps family tree to see if they all came here legally.
Well I'm not sure about all his biological relatives, but Melania worked illegally in the US before being awarded a work visa (source) and Melania's parents came here through 'chain migration'.

Most of his family seems to have come over pre-WWI, when the de-facto barrier to becoming a US citizen was pretty much whether you could get to the United States.

Johnez

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4643 on: October 30, 2018, 07:29:36 AM »
Someone said don't give Trump credit, well this sounds as desperate and crazy a Trump thing to do that everyone had told him NOT to do. This is literally a nightmare. Now what about all the babies born 30 years ago with an illegal parent?

Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.
No he can't do this by EO.  The courts will strike this.

Beside the fact that he can pack the SC (how many justices will there need to be-10, 11?), what will actually stop him? Even if they strike it down, what is going to stop him from ordering ICE into hospitals along the border snatching babies and families and throwing them back to Mexico?

ysette9

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4644 on: October 30, 2018, 07:31:23 AM »
I thought I could no longer be shocked by this guy’s antics, but he just upped his game.
Wow.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4645 on: October 30, 2018, 07:32:04 AM »
Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.
No he can't do this by EO.  The courts will strike this.

Fortunately Trump hasn't been able to stack the highest court in the land in his favour . . . or there could be trouble.

Johnez

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4646 on: October 30, 2018, 07:33:22 AM »
Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.
No he can't do this by EO.  The courts will strike this.

Fortunately Trump hasn't been able to stack the highest court in the land in his favour . . . or there could be trouble.

There's nothing stopping him from deciding he wants 12 justices instead of 9.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4647 on: October 30, 2018, 07:37:08 AM »
Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.
No he can't do this by EO.  The courts will strike this.

Fortunately Trump hasn't been able to stack the highest court in the land in his favour . . . or there could be trouble.

There's nothing stopping him from deciding he wants 12 justices instead of 9.

Didn't work out too well for FDR, and he was ...whats the word... popular.

Johnez

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4648 on: October 30, 2018, 07:43:20 AM »
Different times. He only needs 50 senators on board. Do you see any sign of the GOP turning on him?

I do agree though that the outcome will most likely be the same and he very well might drive the party against him.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2018, 07:48:51 AM by Johnez »

Aelias

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4649 on: October 30, 2018, 07:48:39 AM »
Now he is talking about signing an executive order to deny babies, born by illegal aliens on American soil, legal American citizenship. As he calls them "anchor babies". Can he actually do this? This guy is unreal with the evil things he comes up with.
No he can't do this by EO.  The courts will strike this.

Yeah, I'm not so sure about this. Apparently conservative legal scholars have been making the argument that the language in the Constitution has been wrongly interpreted to extend birthright citizenship to the US born children of undocumented immigrants.  In 1898, the Supreme Court held that Wong Kim Ark, who was born in San Francisco to Chinese parents residing in the United States, was a citizen because of his birth on American soil. Michael Anton, the former spokesman for Trumpís National Security Council, argued in WaPo that because Ark's parents were legal residents, the ruling should not be read as an affirmation of the status of children of undocumented immigrants. 

So, the legal groundwork has already been laid for the conservative majority of SCOTUS to affirm any such executive order, provided that the White House Counsel drafts it with a reasonable amount of thought (think Travel Ban III as opposed to Travel Ban I).  My only hope is that Roberts' desire to preserve the last fig leaf of judicial independence would make him a swing vote.  But that is a very thin reed to rest that hope on.