Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 342189 times)

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4350 on: October 03, 2018, 12:31:40 PM »
DJT mocks Ford and rails against the 'plight of men' the same day that the NYT drops a blockbuster story detailing how his family purposefully and illegally hid hundreds of millions in assets from taxation in what they call "persistently illegal conduct".  The degree and severity of these charges are absolutely staggering and involves DJT, his late father and his siblings over a period of several years.

Is DJT making controversy to deflect from this latest bombshell?

caracarn

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4351 on: October 03, 2018, 12:41:05 PM »
Is DJT making controversy to deflect from this latest bombshell?
He'd never do that, would he?!  Why would you accuse him of such a thing?!  You must be joking, right?

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4352 on: October 03, 2018, 04:25:34 PM »
I knew it.    One of my more conservative colleagues was telling me how Trump had built a large scale business providing thousands of jobs, but I didn't believe him.

Everything about Donald Trump is fake.      Game over.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4353 on: October 03, 2018, 04:33:46 PM »
I knew it.    One of my more conservative colleagues was telling me how Trump had built a large scale business providing thousands of jobs, but I didn't believe him.

Everything about Donald Trump is fake.      Game over.
My sarcasm meter is pinging.

But, that aside, while Trump does run an organization that does provide a number of jobs, the issue here is the tax fraud. Whether he built it or broke even as a result of his subsequent business dealings isn't really the issue. NYT has done a deep dive on these records, but ultimately the rubber meets the road when an investigation that has access to more records (like tax returns) can complete the story. As told, it looks pretty shady. That said, there are a lot of things that are technically legal that seem shady and it could end up being a nothingburger, even if it seems like a lot of content now.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4354 on: October 04, 2018, 07:20:21 AM »
The problem is that--by now--Trump has bought into the reality of conservative media. Stories like this from the Times simply cannot puncture that bubble in any sort of real way.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4355 on: October 04, 2018, 04:22:12 PM »
The way I feel right now, Trump will probably win re-election. We really are in a post-fact reality. facts don't matter to many people voting, as long as their side wins.

Bateaux

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4356 on: October 04, 2018, 05:08:27 PM »
The way I feel right now, Trump will probably win re-election. We really are in a post-fact reality. facts don't matter to many people voting, as long as their side wins.

I see Democrats losing across the board.  You'd better prepare yourself for a Republican loaded government where there are no checks and balances.   Build your stash.  Listen to Suze.  You're going to need more money.   We could be headed into a future with zero safety nets.

jim555

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4357 on: October 04, 2018, 05:51:05 PM »
Trump will start texting directly into all cell phones next.  Everyone got a test message at 2:18 yesterday as a test.  I say it jokingly, but since we are in pseudo reality nothing would surprise me.

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4358 on: October 04, 2018, 06:38:59 PM »
It's quite the political drama-fest to watch as an outsider.    I'm sorry to see the US go this way though.    I'm hoping the democrats will take control of Congress to provide more balance, but I have no idea what will actually happen.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4359 on: October 05, 2018, 07:30:30 AM »
I don't see that happening. The primary problem is the gerrymandering and voter suppression. There is no real progress in addressing either of these issues. Another problem is, since those in power cannot destroy free press, they have gone the alternate route of flooding media, so any signal and basic content is lost in the noise. Regular media, internet is inudated with fluff or shock news. The rest is opinion pieces, with people tuning in only to reinforce and amplify their own views. Very little work done on talking about basic issues, or being able to focus on a problem on the long term, attention span is too short. We do have the New York Times and NPR but we have lost anything resembling a BBC where everyone, regardless of political, religious etc affiliation tunes in to get news. There is no "shared" reality or consensus.
 
Wherever Republicans are in power, one of the first things they do is to cut education. No matter how heroic any individual teacher is, they just can't fight against the erosion of funding of public education. Thus more people are losing faith in public education, which again creates this atmosphere of no shared values, purpose, or community. I know when I was a child in the 70's, people had lots of legitimate complaints. Crime, high interest rate being two of them. It's hard to explain, but today seems more of a dystopia than my childhood, gritty as it may have been.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4360 on: October 05, 2018, 09:07:15 AM »
The way I feel right now, Trump will probably win re-election. We really are in a post-fact reality. facts don't matter to many people voting, as long as their side wins.

I see Democrats losing across the board.  You'd better prepare yourself for a Republican loaded government where there are no checks and balances.   Build your stash.  Listen to Suze.  You're going to need more money.   We could be headed into a future with zero safety nets.

Indeed a lot of polls are coming in showing that this Kavanaugh process has probably cost Heitkamp her seat in Montana. Several other Red-state Democrats may get skewered, putting the Senate out of reach for them. Winning the House requires a march uphill against gerrymandering.

While I have a lot of distaste for what Trump is doing, I'm actually concerned about the Democrats over-performing this cycle and causing a stock market correction. As long as Republicans hold power, large corporations will be profitable.

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4361 on: October 05, 2018, 09:10:10 AM »
The way I feel right now, Trump will probably win re-election. We really are in a post-fact reality. facts don't matter to many people voting, as long as their side wins.

I see Democrats losing across the board.  You'd better prepare yourself for a Republican loaded government where there are no checks and balances.   Build your stash.  Listen to Suze.  You're going to need more money.   We could be headed into a future with zero safety nets.

Indeed a lot of polls are coming in showing that this Kavanaugh process has probably cost Heitkamp her seat in Montana. Several other Red-state Democrats may get skewered, putting the Senate out of reach for them. Winning the House requires a march uphill against gerrymandering.

While I have a lot of distaste for what Trump is doing, I'm actually concerned about the Democrats over-performing this cycle and causing a stock market correction. As long as Republicans hold power, large corporations will be profitable.

Who cares about our societal downfall, as long as we get rich?

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4362 on: October 05, 2018, 09:11:57 AM »
You believe that the stock market will tank because Democrats are elected to the senate?  Really???

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4363 on: October 05, 2018, 09:14:40 AM »
You believe that the stock market will tank because Democrats are elected to the senate?  Really???

Well, we know the man himself has said the markets would crash if he were to get impeached, so I'd bet many people would take that sentiment and extend it to any Democrat win.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4364 on: October 05, 2018, 09:31:01 AM »

Indeed a lot of polls are coming in showing that this Kavanaugh process has probably cost Heitkamp her seat in Montana North Dakota. Several other Red-state Democrats may get skewered, putting the Senate out of reach for them. Winning the House requires a march uphill against gerrymandering.

While I have a lot of distaste for what Trump is doing, I'm actually concerned about the Democrats over-performing this cycle and causing a stock market correction. As long as Republicans hold power, large corporations will be profitable.

There may be correction for a short while, but it'll only be out of fear not anything justified.


Since China doesn't like Trump anymore, we can stop funding our own elections. We'll have deep-state money from China vying for Dems and Russia vying for GOP. Sounds like everyone can just redirect their money to re-investment.

thd7t

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4365 on: October 05, 2018, 09:33:10 AM »
The way I feel right now, Trump will probably win re-election. We really are in a post-fact reality. facts don't matter to many people voting, as long as their side wins.

I see Democrats losing across the board.  You'd better prepare yourself for a Republican loaded government where there are no checks and balances.   Build your stash.  Listen to Suze.  You're going to need more money.   We could be headed into a future with zero safety nets.

Indeed a lot of polls are coming in showing that this Kavanaugh process has probably cost Heitkamp her seat in Montana. Several other Red-state Democrats may get skewered, putting the Senate out of reach for them. Winning the House requires a march uphill against gerrymandering.

While I have a lot of distaste for what Trump is doing, I'm actually concerned about the Democrats over-performing this cycle and causing a stock market correction. As long as Republicans hold power, large corporations will be profitable.
Only three polls have been released that cover time since the allegations against Kavanaugh were made public and Heitkamp only announced her opposition two days ago, which is covered by none of them.

caracarn

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4366 on: October 05, 2018, 12:24:13 PM »
The way I feel right now, Trump will probably win re-election. We really are in a post-fact reality. facts don't matter to many people voting, as long as their side wins.

I see Democrats losing across the board.  You'd better prepare yourself for a Republican loaded government where there are no checks and balances.   Build your stash.  Listen to Suze.  You're going to need more money.   We could be headed into a future with zero safety nets.

Indeed a lot of polls are coming in showing that this Kavanaugh process has probably cost Heitkamp her seat in Montana. Several other Red-state Democrats may get skewered, putting the Senate out of reach for them. Winning the House requires a march uphill against gerrymandering.

While I have a lot of distaste for what Trump is doing, I'm actually concerned about the Democrats over-performing this cycle and causing a stock market correction. As long as Republicans hold power, large corporations will be profitable.
Really?!  Stupid me.  I figured my job in management at the various companies was to work hard to make my company sell a product for less than it cost us to make it.  I had no idea that if we just voted Republican that guaranteed my corporation would be profitable.  Hell, that's a lot easier than actually working.  I'll let our senior execs know at our next staff meeting so that we can stop focusing on actually running our companies as I had no idea the only thing that made us profitable was Republicans holding power.  I think the most interesting discussion this will start in the board room is how we made profits with Democrats in power, since that's not possible.  I guess we must have stole it, so should be give it back?  Maybe to the Republicans since they are the only reason we have ever done well?

DarkandStormy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4367 on: October 05, 2018, 09:29:16 PM »
Trump is in love with Otto Warmbier's murderer.  Cool.

craimund

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4368 on: October 06, 2018, 08:11:44 AM »
The way I feel right now, Trump will probably win re-election. We really are in a post-fact reality. facts don't matter to many people voting, as long as their side wins.

I see Democrats losing across the board.  You'd better prepare yourself for a Republican loaded government where there are no checks and balances.   Build your stash.  Listen to Suze.  You're going to need more money.   We could be headed into a future with zero safety nets.

Indeed a lot of polls are coming in showing that this Kavanaugh process has probably cost Heitkamp her seat in Montana. Several other Red-state Democrats may get skewered, putting the Senate out of reach for them. Winning the House requires a march uphill against gerrymandering.

While I have a lot of distaste for what Trump is doing, I'm actually concerned about the Democrats over-performing this cycle and causing a stock market correction. As long as Republicans hold power, large corporations will be profitable.
Only three polls have been released that cover time since the allegations against Kavanaugh were made public and Heitkamp only announced her opposition two days ago, which is covered by none of them.

Heitkamp is in North Dakota not Montana.  She is trailing badly in multiple polls.  Her R opponent Cramer up 12 in latest poll.  Looks like she is toast and has thrown in the towel with the Kavanaugh vote.  That's +1 for the Rs.
Tester is the Democrat from Montana.  He is also endangered.  His vote may cost him his seat.  He still leads in the polls.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4369 on: October 06, 2018, 09:25:09 AM »
Heitkamp is in North Dakota not Montana.  She is trailing badly in multiple polls.  Her R opponent Cramer up 12 in latest poll.  Looks like she is toast and has thrown in the towel with the Kavanaugh vote.  That's +1 for the Rs.
Tester is the Democrat from Montana.  He is also endangered.  His vote may cost him his seat.  He still leads in the polls.

Eh, Heitkamp has been trailing all year. She was down almost 8 points in July but there haven't been a lot of polls for that race overall.

It's too early to decide if Kavanaugh is the reason for the most recent numbers. As Nate Silver wrote, "By the same measure, if you were trying to cite a series of strong Democratic polls since the hearings, you wouldn’t have much problem."

craimund

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4370 on: October 06, 2018, 09:58:57 AM »
Heitkamp is in North Dakota not Montana.  She is trailing badly in multiple polls.  Her R opponent Cramer up 12 in latest poll.  Looks like she is toast and has thrown in the towel with the Kavanaugh vote.  That's +1 for the Rs.
Tester is the Democrat from Montana.  He is also endangered.  His vote may cost him his seat.  He still leads in the polls.

Eh, Heitkamp has been trailing all year. She was down almost 8 points in July but there haven't been a lot of polls for that race overall.

It's too early to decide if Kavanaugh is the reason for the most recent numbers. As Nate Silver wrote, "By the same measure, if you were trying to cite a series of strong Democratic polls since the hearings, you wouldn’t have much problem."

Not sure what strong D polls Silver could be referring to.  Maybe those for safe D seats.  All of the toss-ups have moved solidly toward the Republicans in recent polling.  Even NJ is only D+6 in RealClear average of polls.  One of the recent NJ polls had Menendez up by only 2.  That's in NJ which is solidly blue.  Not looking good fo the Dems in the Senate.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4371 on: October 08, 2018, 11:22:27 AM »
You believe that the stock market will tank because Democrats are elected to the senate?  Really???

I believe that Republicans are most united on policies that either decrease regulatory burdens on businesses or cut taxes (with the TCJA cutting them quite a bit for corporations). These things have shown up directly in reported corporate earnings this year.

If Democrats fail to capture the House, why wouldn't they pass a second round of these tax cuts? It's really all they seem to be able to do.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4372 on: October 08, 2018, 01:27:32 PM »
Heitkamp is in North Dakota not Montana.  She is trailing badly in multiple polls.  Her R opponent Cramer up 12 in latest poll.  Looks like she is toast and has thrown in the towel with the Kavanaugh vote.  That's +1 for the Rs.
Tester is the Democrat from Montana.  He is also endangered.  His vote may cost him his seat.  He still leads in the polls.

Eh, Heitkamp has been trailing all year. She was down almost 8 points in July but there haven't been a lot of polls for that race overall.

It's too early to decide if Kavanaugh is the reason for the most recent numbers. As Nate Silver wrote, "By the same measure, if you were trying to cite a series of strong Democratic polls since the hearings, you wouldn’t have much problem."

Not sure what strong D polls Silver could be referring to.  Maybe those for safe D seats.  All of the toss-ups have moved solidly toward the Republicans in recent polling.  Even NJ is only D+6 in RealClear average of polls.  One of the recent NJ polls had Menendez up by only 2.  That's in NJ which is solidly blue.  Not looking good fo the Dems in the Senate.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

Manchin
Nelson in Florida
And the 10/3 Reuters generic ballot poll

Quote from: natesilver
Kavanaugh was not a popular pick to begin with, and he has become more unpopular still in some (although not all) polls. He’s also particularly unpopular with groups such as college-educated women who typically turn out at high rates at the midterms.

For an example of the latter effect and its consequences, look at the AZ polling.


Re: New Jersey, YouGov 10/5 has Menendez +10 and Q-University 10/2 has Menendez +11.

The Ds have certainly lost ground in the Senate race but they never had much of a chance to take it anyway.

The polls this week will be interesting.

oldtoyota

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4373 on: October 08, 2018, 01:52:47 PM »
The way I feel right now, Trump will probably win re-election. We really are in a post-fact reality. facts don't matter to many people voting, as long as their side wins.

You may be right. However, my guess is that Russian hacking is another reason they're winning despite the majority not agreeing with them.


sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4374 on: October 08, 2018, 05:06:19 PM »
Recent reporting about the newly renegotiated version of NAFTA, which Trump touted as a key campaign promise fulfilled, is actually just the same as the old NAFTA with minor revisions to the percentages of cars that must be made in North America, and (this is the amazing part) large portions of the previously scrapped TransPacific Partnership copied and pasted into the new agreement.

So Trump promised to repeal NAFTA and veto the TPP, and he fulfilled both of these promises by adding the TPP onto NAFTA?  This is change I can believe in.  Apparently Trump's new policy positions are just reshuffled versions of Clinton's policy positions, with new names. 

Maybe next on the agenda will scrapping medicaid, but tweaking medicare to cover everyone over age 26 and calling it Trumpcare?

Johnez

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4375 on: October 08, 2018, 06:19:31 PM »
We can only hope Sol....


talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4376 on: October 09, 2018, 09:07:34 AM »
(disclosure: I am a #nevertrump Republican)

I cannot help but feel as though the last two weeks have gone about as well for Trump as they possibly could. He basically rallied his base to save the Kavanaugh nomination, while putting guard rails on the FBI investigation that basically force liberals into a place where they are stuck criticizing the FBI.

Mitch McConnell sure seems secure that he will keep the Senate majority in November. (https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/07/politics/mcconnell-scotus-2020-nominee-trump-senate/index.html)

The NYT story about the Trump family business and fraud and self-dealing made about zero impact. He's still got Rosenstein dangling over the abyss.

And Nikki Haley--who was a fierce never-trump critic--has been completely absorbed onto the team in her role at the UN.

And--when no one noticed--he fired the director of the office of personnel management.

thd7t

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4377 on: October 09, 2018, 09:30:31 AM »
(disclosure: I am a #nevertrump Republican)

I cannot help but feel as though the last two weeks have gone about as well for Trump as they possibly could. He basically rallied his base to save the Kavanaugh nomination, while putting guard rails on the FBI investigation that basically force liberals into a place where they are stuck criticizing the FBI.

Mitch McConnell sure seems secure that he will keep the Senate majority in November. (https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/07/politics/mcconnell-scotus-2020-nominee-trump-senate/index.html)

The NYT story about the Trump family business and fraud and self-dealing made about zero impact. He's still got Rosenstein dangling over the abyss.

And Nikki Haley--who was a fierce never-trump critic--has been completely absorbed onto the team in her role at the UN.

And--when no one noticed--he fired the director of the office of personnel management.

Overall, I'd say you're right, here, but in specific, I'd say that the Democrats have been very careful to make it clear that the FBI's hands were tied.  They haven't attacked the FBI.  The other point is made by my strikethrough on your Haley note.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4378 on: October 09, 2018, 09:31:22 AM »
(disclosure: I am a #nevertrump Republican)

I cannot help but feel as though the last two weeks have gone about as well for Trump as they possibly could. He basically rallied his base to save the Kavanaugh nomination, while putting guard rails on the FBI investigation that basically force liberals into a place where they are stuck criticizing the FBI.

Mitch McConnell sure seems secure that he will keep the Senate majority in November. (https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/07/politics/mcconnell-scotus-2020-nominee-trump-senate/index.html)

The NYT story about the Trump family business and fraud and self-dealing made about zero impact. He's still got Rosenstein dangling over the abyss.

And Nikki Haley--who was a fierce never-trump critic--has been completely absorbed onto the team in her role at the UN.

And--when no one noticed--he fired the director of the office of personnel management.

Well, Haley is quitting.

But, yeah, it's been a great few weeks for Trump and McConnell. Kavanaugh may be a pyrrhic victory, though -- we'll know soon.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4379 on: October 09, 2018, 09:35:23 AM »
Yeah, I typed the rest of that comment, then added the part about Haley to inject some extra irony. I cannot wait to hear why she is quitting the post. In the 2020 primary, I would vote for her ahead of Flake or Kasich.

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4380 on: October 09, 2018, 10:28:44 AM »
Recent reporting about the newly renegotiated version of NAFTA, which Trump touted as a key campaign promise fulfilled, is actually just the same as the old NAFTA with minor revisions to the percentages of cars that must be made in North America, and (this is the amazing part) large portions of the previously scrapped TransPacific Partnership copied and pasted into the new agreement.


There is something in there about any party negotiating other trade deals having to have them approved by the new NAFTA. No details, it was on the radio and over in a few seconds.  This could be a non-issue or it could be major, we won't know until a relevant situation arises.

I know Trudeau (and Canada) was happy to get the labour rights clauses in, and we kept the dispute solving mechanism.  The US is too big not to have a way to solve disputes written into the agreement.  Even though they can drag out, softwood lumber seems to be an ongoing issue.

BGH - dairy products produced entirely in Canada have a blue cow on them - if no blue cow, foreign dairy.  Of course we import cheese from Europe, and we already import dairy from the US, but I have never met anyone who argues for milk from cows treated with BGH.  I have met dairy farmers who vehemently oppose BGH.  BGH cuts a cow's milking life about in half.  Apparently having a quota means cows get treated more humanely. 

hoping2retire35

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4381 on: October 09, 2018, 01:44:37 PM »
Yeah, I typed the rest of that comment, then added the part about Haley to inject some extra irony. I cannot wait to hear why she is quitting the post. In the 2020 primary, I would vote for her ahead of Flake or Kasich.
It is more likely Pence will be dumped and she put on the ticket, 2020.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4382 on: October 09, 2018, 01:46:19 PM »
Yeah, I typed the rest of that comment, then added the part about Haley to inject some extra irony. I cannot wait to hear why she is quitting the post. In the 2020 primary, I would vote for her ahead of Flake or Kasich.
It is more likely Pence will be dumped and she put on the ticket, 2020.

Huh. I can't see that. What would be the gain?

sequoia

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4383 on: October 09, 2018, 02:44:42 PM »
I wonder if the favorite daughter is going to replace Nikki Haley...

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4384 on: October 09, 2018, 02:55:54 PM »
(disclosure: I am a #nevertrump Republican)

I cannot help but feel as though the last two weeks have gone about as well for Trump as they possibly could. He basically rallied his base to save the Kavanaugh nomination, while putting guard rails on the FBI investigation that basically force liberals into a place where they are stuck criticizing the FBI.

Mitch McConnell sure seems secure that he will keep the Senate majority in November. (https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/07/politics/mcconnell-scotus-2020-nominee-trump-senate/index.html)

The NYT story about the Trump family business and fraud and self-dealing made about zero impact. He's still got Rosenstein dangling over the abyss.

And Nikki Haley--who was a fierce never-trump critic--has been completely absorbed onto the team in her role at the UN.

And--when no one noticed--he fired the director of the office of personnel management.

Overall, I'd say you're right, here, but in specific, I'd say that the Democrats have been very careful to make it clear that the FBI's hands were tied.  They haven't attacked the FBI.  The other point is made by my strikethrough on your Haley note.

Agreed. I haven't seen anyone firsthand attack the FBI. I think Dems and even Repubs know the FBI was curtailed by Trump and company.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4385 on: October 09, 2018, 04:47:18 PM »
I wonder if the favorite daughter is going to replace Nikki Haley...
Rumor has it she would be "dynamite" at the job. Nepotism, be damned!

oldtoyota

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4386 on: October 09, 2018, 08:44:17 PM »
I wonder if the favorite daughter is going to replace Nikki Haley...
Rumor has it she would be "dynamite" at the job. Nepotism, be damned!

What timing! Who resigns from the Oval Office? Something smells. I am just gonna stay focused on turning Congress blue.

By the River

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4387 on: October 10, 2018, 08:15:57 AM »
I wonder if the favorite daughter is going to replace Nikki Haley...
Rumor has it she would be "dynamite" at the job. Nepotism, be damned!

What timing! Who resigns from the Oval Office? Something smells. I am just gonna stay focused on turning Congress blue.

Seriously?  No president other than Kennedy had the same UN Ambassador for the entire term. Carter, Reagan, and HW Bush had 2 each, Clinton had 3, Bush had 4, Obama had 2 (not counting acting ambassadors in these numbers).

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4388 on: October 10, 2018, 08:40:24 AM »
I wonder if the favorite daughter is going to replace Nikki Haley...
Rumor has it she would be "dynamite" at the job. Nepotism, be damned!

What timing! Who resigns from the Oval Office? Something smells. I am just gonna stay focused on turning Congress blue.

Seriously?  No president other than Kennedy had the same UN Ambassador for the entire term. Carter, Reagan, and HW Bush had 2 each, Clinton had 3, Bush had 4, Obama had 2 (not counting acting ambassadors in these numbers).

No, oldtoyota is saying that Haley resigned literally IN the Oval Office. With Trump at her side as she fawned over him.

craimund

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4389 on: October 10, 2018, 11:50:27 AM »
Heitkamp is in North Dakota not Montana.  She is trailing badly in multiple polls.  Her R opponent Cramer up 12 in latest poll.  Looks like she is toast and has thrown in the towel with the Kavanaugh vote.  That's +1 for the Rs.
Tester is the Democrat from Montana.  He is also endangered.  His vote may cost him his seat.  He still leads in the polls.

Eh, Heitkamp has been trailing all year. She was down almost 8 points in July but there haven't been a lot of polls for that race overall.

It's too early to decide if Kavanaugh is the reason for the most recent numbers. As Nate Silver wrote, "By the same measure, if you were trying to cite a series of strong Democratic polls since the hearings, you wouldn’t have much problem."

Not sure what strong D polls Silver could be referring to.  Maybe those for safe D seats.  All of the toss-ups have moved solidly toward the Republicans in recent polling.  Even NJ is only D+6 in RealClear average of polls.  One of the recent NJ polls had Menendez up by only 2.  That's in NJ which is solidly blue.  Not looking good fo the Dems in the Senate.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

Manchin
Nelson in Florida
And the 10/3 Reuters generic ballot poll

Quote from: natesilver
Kavanaugh was not a popular pick to begin with, and he has become more unpopular still in some (although not all) polls. He’s also particularly unpopular with groups such as college-educated women who typically turn out at high rates at the midterms.

For an example of the latter effect and its consequences, look at the AZ polling.


Re: New Jersey, YouGov 10/5 has Menendez +10 and Q-University 10/2 has Menendez +11.

The Ds have certainly lost ground in the Senate race but they never had much of a chance to take it anyway.

The polls this week will be interesting.

McSally up in latest AZ poll.  Blackburn looks like a R hold in TN.  Heitkamp is toast in ND.  FL is neck and neck.  Can't be good for the incumbent.  R now ahead in MO.  Waiting for additional polling in IN and MT.  Good chance for Repubs to pick up 4 seats if the hold AZ and NV (ND, MO, IN, FL).

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4390 on: October 11, 2018, 07:15:38 AM »
I have to say the data do look bad for Democrats suddenly. I had thought the only thing that could go wrong for them in this midterm would be another mass-shooting, where plenty of gun-neutral people seem to have a distaste for the anti-gun zealots on the left. But something weird seemed to snap inside plenty of Evangelical White women as well with the Ford-Kavanaugh controversy.

FIPurpose

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4391 on: October 11, 2018, 07:31:00 AM »
I think all your seeing in the polls is a temporary Kavanuagh bump. I'm sure it will completely disappear in about 2 weeks.

golden1

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4392 on: October 11, 2018, 08:46:32 AM »
I don’t know.  The Republicans seem to be adept at keeping their voters in perpetual victim mode, so they still are convinced that we are one election away from socialism and the government coming to take their guns and businesses while making all of thier children gay and forcing them to have abortions.  I exaggerate, but in all seriousness, these people have all three branches of power at the moment and are still ridiculously angry and aggrieved. 

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4393 on: October 11, 2018, 08:48:40 AM »
I don’t know.  The Republicans seem to be adept at keeping their voters in perpetual victim mode, so they still are convinced that we are one election away from socialism and the government coming to take their guns and businesses while making all of thier children gay and forcing them to have abortions.  I exaggerate, but in all seriousness, these people have all three branches of power at the moment and are still ridiculously angry and aggrieved.

And terrified. Of course, they are credulous enough to believe the hogwash being pushed at them by the very people they elected. Including Kelly Paul's pathetic statement that she keeps a loaded gun by her bed cuz of teh scary, scary liberals.

https://www.newsweek.com/paul-wife-loaded-gun-liberal-attacks-1160029


cliffhanger

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4394 on: October 11, 2018, 09:47:07 AM »
I don’t know.  The Republicans seem to be adept at keeping their voters in perpetual victim mode, so they still are convinced that we are one election away from socialism and the government coming to take their guns and businesses while making all of thier children gay and forcing them to have abortions.  I exaggerate, but in all seriousness, these people have all three branches of power at the moment and are still ridiculously angry and aggrieved.

And terrified. Of course, they are credulous enough to believe the hogwash being pushed at them by the very people they elected. Including Kelly Paul's pathetic statement that she keeps a loaded gun by her bed cuz of teh scary, scary liberals.

https://www.newsweek.com/paul-wife-loaded-gun-liberal-attacks-1160029

Pathetic!? You're trolling... right?

In just the past year or so,  Rand Paul has:
-been present at an attempted assassination of congressional Republicans
-been attacked in his own backyard, breaking several ribs
-had his personal information published by a democratic intern

And you're calling his wife pathetic for wanting to protect herself while she's home alone? Just goes to show that women deserve to feel safe in their own home unless they are Republican.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4395 on: October 11, 2018, 09:56:25 AM »
I don’t know.  The Republicans seem to be adept at keeping their voters in perpetual victim mode, so they still are convinced that we are one election away from socialism and the government coming to take their guns and businesses while making all of thier children gay and forcing them to have abortions.  I exaggerate, but in all seriousness, these people have all three branches of power at the moment and are still ridiculously angry and aggrieved.

And terrified. Of course, they are credulous enough to believe the hogwash being pushed at them by the very people they elected. Including Kelly Paul's pathetic statement that she keeps a loaded gun by her bed cuz of teh scary, scary liberals.

https://www.newsweek.com/paul-wife-loaded-gun-liberal-attacks-1160029

Pathetic!? You're trolling... right?

In just the past year or so,  Rand Paul has:
-been present at an attempted assassination of congressional Republicans
-been attacked in his own backyard, breaking several ribs
-had his personal information published by a democratic intern

And you're calling his wife pathetic for wanting to protect herself while she's home alone? Just goes to show that women deserve to feel safe in their own home unless they are Republican.

Yes. All of those things are true.

But that's not some sort of "liberal" mob. That's one unhinged dude at a baseball game who snapped because his life had spiraled out of control. And Rand Paul's neighbor, over a dispute regarding property lines. And one intern.

Of course, that doesn't stop Breitbart from seeing this as a great story about how violent "the libs" are, which is why they interviewed her.

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4396 on: October 11, 2018, 10:01:16 AM »
Yeah, Rand and Kelley are milking the "attacked in the back yard" situation. They were feuding neighbors -- it started over their lawns, ffs. It wasn't a planned attack by union operatives working with Clinton and the DNC.

Wexler

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4397 on: October 11, 2018, 11:00:40 AM »
I don’t know.  The Republicans seem to be adept at keeping their voters in perpetual victim mode, so they still are convinced that we are one election away from socialism and the government coming to take their guns and businesses while making all of thier children gay and forcing them to have abortions.  I exaggerate, but in all seriousness, these people have all three branches of power at the moment and are still ridiculously angry and aggrieved.

Yeah. This is Donald Trump's great gift to the Republican party.  He excels at victim mode. His wife just said she is the most bullied person in the world.  Um..can you imagine how the right would have reacted to soft core porn shots of Michelle or if Michelle could barely express herself in English?  Fox news was outraged that Michelle wanted kids to eat broccoli. Frankly, the fact that every story about her isn't accompanied by a picture of her in bikini bottoms on a bearskin rug is a testament to the fact that the left shows a great deal of class and restraint when it comes to Melania.  In fact, the only person who went after her nudie pics is Ted Cruz, and we all saw how that worked out.  I've brought this up with the Trump supporters I know, and they think it's awesome that he went after Heidi because Trump hits back harder.  They fail to extend this logic to Trump himself and do not think it's awesome if anyone Trump goes after defends themselves.

I feel oddly comforted by the fact that they will not be able to hold Trumpism together without Trump.  And that Trump won't be able to stop himself from attacking any Republican who comes after him just to make himself look better.  Just like he'd rather see The Apprentice fails without him, he'd rather see the country fail without him. 

Johnez

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4398 on: October 11, 2018, 11:04:18 AM »
Kinda funny that Fox is where I got this from:

[url]https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-had-secret-plan-to-validate-clinton-victory-if-trump-didnt-accept-it-report.amp[/ur]

Quote
Obama had secret plan to validate Clinton victory if Trump didn't accept it: report

The plan to validate the election involved former secretaries of state Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice. Former presidents and congressional Republicans also participated in the plan, the outlet reported.

Ben Rhodes, a former top aide of Obama, told the magazine that the administration feared Trump wouldn’t accept the election result had Hillary Clinton won.

“It wasn’t a hypothetical,” he said. “Trump was already saying it on the campaign trail.”

Jen Psaki, communications director for Obama, minimized the plan’s significance, saying it just one of a number of “red-teaming” discussions about the potential fallout following the 2016 election, including pro-Trump protests and political division.

The fact that a plan had to be drawn up in case Trump lost shows how low our democracy has stooped. They had to bring in former Republican presidents and secretary of states!

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4399 on: October 11, 2018, 11:54:46 AM »
I actually don't think it's odd that Fox published this story.

From the perspective of clinton-supporters, it's kinda meaningless. They've been living in a nightmare of unimaginable proportions.

From the perspective of Trump-supporters, it feeds their narrative that Obama and establishment couldn't imagine that Clinton would lose.