Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 404723 times)

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4300 on: September 26, 2018, 12:26:19 AM »

An American friend of mine commented that he envied our parliamentary system of government because of Question Time. I noted that most questions are just someone from the same party going, "could the Minister for Industry tell us about the excellent work the government is doing to assist steelworks?" and the Minister stands up and buttons his jacket, "Why yes, I can praise myself for ten minutes straight, certainly." That's not all of Question Time, but most of it.

My friend responded, "It would be good to see members of the government subjected to derisive laughter from time to time." It's one advantage of having the executive directly responsible to and members of the legislative branch. Derisive laughter is good for members of government, it keeps them in their place.

Question Time has lots of interjections for "Point of Order, Mr Speaker" and all that. And then the minister has to sit the fck down and shut the fck up while that is sorted out. On discussion, we agreed it was also good for members of the government to have to sit the fck down and shut the fck up from time to time, too.

He made those comments during the Obama administration, I don't see why it wouldn't apply now, though. If not Congress, the UN General Assembly will have to do, I suppose.

dmc

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4301 on: September 26, 2018, 04:59:53 AM »
What horribly shitty part of the country do you live in?

Sounds like many large urban areas.  Chicago, St. Louis, Baltimore, LA, Detroit, Washington DC, Miami, and a few more.

cerat0n1a

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4302 on: September 26, 2018, 05:43:05 AM »
Trump got a laugh at the UN today.

That's the world laughing at him, not with him.

I just can't believe how many politicians can talk to him with a straight face. I guess it's part of the job description for a politician to hide their true feelings

A cynic might observe that being able to lie (or at least dissemble) with a straight face is a very important part of the job description. How ever much of a buffoon Trump may be, he's not got his place at the UN through a military coup or strongarmed his way to the head of a one party state through elimination of rivals. Western politicians are going to deal with many worse people in their careers.

Gondolin

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4303 on: September 26, 2018, 07:27:16 AM »
Quote
Sounds like many large urban areas.  Chicago, St. Louis, Baltimore, LA, Detroit, Washington DC, Miami, and a few more.

Have you lived in any of these places in the last 20 years? Mass shootings actually occur more often in smaller communities than large metro areas. Take a look at the biggest shootings by body count on www.gunviolencearchice.org and youíll see that only 4-5 of the top 25 occurred in major metro areas.

Judging by the Gilford reference I would guess that the OP lives in Tucson or another smaller SW city.

wenchsenior

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4304 on: September 26, 2018, 07:30:03 AM »
What horribly shitty part of the country do you live in?

All these shootings took place in different parts of the country, in or near mid-size or small cities (respectively, they occurred in the Midwest, the Southwest, near the east coast, in the central plains region, and in the Midwest again, but different city).  That's what is so horrifying.  ETA: Actually, not even all small urban areas.  My sister's near miss was in a rural park outside a very small city.  None of my family nor I have ever lived in large urban centers, where one would (statistically) expect more gun violence. 
« Last Edit: September 26, 2018, 07:41:12 AM by wenchsenior »

caracarn

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4305 on: September 26, 2018, 02:43:48 PM »
@wenchsenior , thanks for getting back to us.  I think is helps to frame @dmc  assumption that big cities are this cesspool.  Many times they are not.  I lived nearly 4 decades in Chicago and never felt in any extreme danger.  I did have neighbors who never ventured into the city proper who were in their little cocoon and watching the news and thinking that just setting foot in the city limits proper was a death sentence. 

I think it is crucial to note the fallacy that many of our assumptions place on our thinking.  This is not a "big city" problem.  This is a 'Murica problem.

dmc

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4306 on: September 26, 2018, 04:36:49 PM »
According to the sun times there has been 408 homicides in Chicago so far this year.  I imagine a lot of them were shooting victms. 

https://graphics.suntimes.com/homicides/

dmc

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4307 on: September 26, 2018, 04:40:14 PM »
more than  a 1000 shot in Chicago by June 4.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-weekend-violence-roundup-20180604-story.html

Not my idea of paradise.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4308 on: September 26, 2018, 05:48:37 PM »
The majority of that gun violence is concentrated in a couple of poor neighborhoods.

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4309 on: September 26, 2018, 07:56:04 PM »
more than  a 1000 shot in Chicago by June 4.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-weekend-violence-roundup-20180604-story.html

Not my idea of paradise.

Only 81 killed in Toronto by comparison with 202 in Chicago.   Cities are the same size.   Climate is similar.    The only difference is Justin Trudeau instead of Donald Trump.    And firearms restrictions.   Just sayin, it's pretty good up here.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4310 on: September 26, 2018, 09:19:18 PM »
For folks that think Trump is the reason the US economy is doing so well - https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/20/trump-escalates-attacks-federal-reserve/?utm_term=.68886c078143

Quote
Trump is escalating his Fed-bashing ahead of the central bankís next meeting and against the advice of many of his top economic advisers. Recent presidents have refrained from commenting on the Fedís handling of the economy out of respect for the Fedís independence.

Apparently he's not really controlling the economy as much as he claims to.  Sadly, if inflation and national debt become a problem we must address, it's a little too late to say we probably shouldn't have kept interest rates so low for so long.

dmc

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4311 on: September 27, 2018, 05:35:49 AM »
more than  a 1000 shot in Chicago by June 4.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-weekend-violence-roundup-20180604-story.html

Not my idea of paradise.

Only 81 killed in Toronto by comparison with 202 in Chicago.   Cities are the same size.   Climate is similar.    The only difference is Justin Trudeau instead of Donald Trump.    And firearms restrictions.   Just sayin, it's pretty good up here.

Murders were higher in 2016, Iím pretty sure Obama was still president then.  And I donít think the president has much control over how the cityís are run. 

Maybe we need to be tougher on firearm crimes and gangs. 

Unique User

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4312 on: September 27, 2018, 09:25:40 AM »
more than  a 1000 shot in Chicago by June 4.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-weekend-violence-roundup-20180604-story.html

Not my idea of paradise.

Only 81 killed in Toronto by comparison with 202 in Chicago.   Cities are the same size.   Climate is similar.    The only difference is Justin Trudeau instead of Donald Trump.    And firearms restrictions.   Just sayin, it's pretty good up here.

Murders were higher in 2016, Iím pretty sure Obama was still president then.  And I donít think the president has much control over how the cityís are run. 

Maybe we need to be tougher on firearm crimes and gangs.

Maybe, but it also might help if Chicago wasn't bordered by states with weak gun laws.  I grew up on the South Side, pretty easy to go to Schererville or Hammond in IN and buy a gun there. 

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4313 on: September 27, 2018, 09:54:41 AM »
There a multiple reasons why there is high gun violence in Chicago. It would be nice to say that gun laws within the city limits can fix everything, but it's not that easy. As someone else said, there are so many guns around, it is easy to get guns.

unfortunately a lot of gangs which used to have defined borders often due to where the projects were, when those projects were torn down are having border wars, been going on for years and so the crime has gotten worse. When I lived in Chicago many years ago sure it's a tough town, but mainly you knew which neighborhoods were OK and which ones to avoid. Another issue is that Chicago cops got slapped for being too aggressive and so there is a rumor that they are not trying so hard, especially in some areas, aka doing the bare minimum. Who knows.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2018, 03:30:21 PM by partgypsy »

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4314 on: September 27, 2018, 10:30:54 AM »
The US imprisons a greater percentage of it's citizens than any other country in the world.  If being tougher on crime worked, one would expect the US to have some of the lowest crime in the world.  :P

Gondolin

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4315 on: September 27, 2018, 11:36:06 AM »
Quote
The only difference is Justin Trudeau instead of Donald Trump.

The other difference is that 2-3 Toronto neighborhoods don't serve as the main hub of cocaine distribution in the United States. Since El Chapo was arrested, major shifts have occurred in the drug world and it's driven lots of shootings as the various distribution gangs vie for prominence.

If 1000 people are shot " in Chicago", 900 of them are ghettoized African Americans too poor to move out of the 1 square mile where all the gangs operate.

I'm in Chicago now and it's funny. You wouldn't even know the gang violence was happening at all except for all the out of staters constantly reminding you that you must live in a blasted wasteland because they saw Chicago in the news.

NorthernBlitz

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4316 on: September 28, 2018, 04:45:37 AM »
more than  a 1000 shot in Chicago by June 4.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-weekend-violence-roundup-20180604-story.html

Not my idea of paradise.

Only 81 killed in Toronto by comparison with 202 in Chicago.   Cities are the same size.   Climate is similar.    The only difference is Justin Trudeau instead of Donald Trump.    And firearms restrictions.   Just sayin, it's pretty good up here.

I bet those ratios were similar when it was Harper and Obama.

marty998

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4317 on: September 28, 2018, 06:27:08 AM »
more than  a 1000 shot in Chicago by June 4.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-weekend-violence-roundup-20180604-story.html

Not my idea of paradise.

Only 81 killed in Toronto by comparison with 202 in Chicago.   Cities are the same size.   Climate is similar.    The only difference is Justin Trudeau instead of Donald Trump.    And firearms restrictions.   Just sayin, it's pretty good up here.

I bet those ratios were similar when it was Harper and Obama.

Yeah agree, look I'm all for gun control but interpretations like this don't do any favours. 81 vs 200 in cities of millions of people doesn't seem much. You can protest "it's 150% more in the 'Murican city", but they're both quite low numbers as a proportion of total population.

Now if it was 5 or 6 in Toronto vs 500-600 in Chicago, then I would sit up and take notice.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Inaya

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4318 on: September 28, 2018, 09:24:44 AM »
Accounting for population, Chicago isn't even in the top 50 most dangerous cities.

https://www.businessinsider.com/most-violent-city-every-us-state-fbi-2018-4#1-baltimore-maryland-had-986-violent-crimes-per-10000-residents-40

https://www.safewise.com/blog/most-dangerous-cities/

In other news, it looks like Kavanaugh is even more likely to be appointed than he was before the sexual assault dustup.




scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4319 on: September 28, 2018, 06:05:40 PM »
The probability of being murdered in TO is something like 1/3 of that in Chicago.   If that's not better, than how about watching Chrystia Freeland piss off the Trump administration by out-negotiating them.   

I predict Trump will eventually cave.   He thought he had it locked up by asking for things that are actually good for Canada.   As if we don't have our own internal politics.

Master negotiator my ass.     

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4320 on: September 29, 2018, 11:12:20 AM »
The probability of being murdered in TO is something like 1/3 of that in Chicago.   If that's not better, than how about watching Chrystia Freeland piss off the Trump administration by out-negotiating them.   

I predict Trump will eventually cave.   He thought he had it locked up by asking for things that are actually good for Canada.   As if we don't have our own internal politics.

Master negotiator my ass.   
Heís not a negotiator, heís a bully. His negotiating style is to be in a position of economic power (say, at the tail end of a building project) and the attempt to extort concessions from the other party by refusing to pay. He has no broader view of the value of alliances, or common good. It is all a zero sum game. Not terribly sophisticated.

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4321 on: September 30, 2018, 10:21:43 AM »
Breaking news:   Trump declares his love for Kim.   

No, it's not another mistress.   This time it's Kim Jong-Un.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-we-fell-in-love-trump-swoons-over-letters-from-kim-jong-un/

If they have a dynastic marriage, will there be a hyphenated name:   Kim-Trump?    or maybe Trump-Kim?

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4322 on: September 30, 2018, 01:57:02 PM »
Breaking news:   Trump declares his love for Kim.   

No, it's not another mistress.   This time it's Kim Jong-Un.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-we-fell-in-love-trump-swoons-over-letters-from-kim-jong-un/

If they have a dynastic marriage, will there be a hyphenated name:   Kim-Trump?    or maybe Trump-Kim?
Krump.
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talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4323 on: October 01, 2018, 09:08:55 AM »
Trump's ability to modify public opinion about the NFL, Budget Deficits, free trade, Kim Jong Un, and other things--at least among Republicans--is breath-taking. I oppose Trump, but I refuse to make the mistake of underestimating this ability of his.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4324 on: October 01, 2018, 09:18:41 AM »
Trump's ability to modify public opinion about the NFL, Budget Deficits, free trade, Kim Jong Un, and other things--at least among Republicans--is breath-taking. I oppose Trump, but I refuse to make the mistake of underestimating this ability of his.

Do you feel like he has modified public opinion on any of those topics?  I feel like has only opposed the party orthodoxy, not that any voters have changed their opinions.

For example, the NFL is still going strong.  They have a variety of problems and scandals, like the ongoing disregard for player health and well being, but they are still popular and profitable.  The NFL isn't exactly in danger of dying out because of Trump.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4325 on: October 01, 2018, 09:30:28 AM »
Trump's ability to modify public opinion about the NFL, Budget Deficits, free trade, Kim Jong Un, and other things--at least among Republicans--is breath-taking. I oppose Trump, but I refuse to make the mistake of underestimating this ability of his.

Do you feel like he has modified public opinion on any of those topics?  I feel like has only opposed the party orthodoxy, not that any voters have changed their opinions.

For example, the NFL is still going strong.  They have a variety of problems and scandals, like the ongoing disregard for player health and well being, but they are still popular and profitable.  The NFL isn't exactly in danger of dying out because of Trump.

I'm not certain how much is Trump, and how much of it is "not Obama", but i've been rather stunned at what members of the GOP celebrate now as 'great policy from the WH' whereas had Obama tried similar nothing he would have been branded a traitor and heretic. As examples, giving photo-ops and heaping praised on Kim, while attacking leaders from our most steadfast allies.  Imposing steep barriers with our biggest trading partners (e.g. Canada). Publicly brow-beating US companies (aka 'government picking winners and losers').

To some degree the base will always cheer decisions made by 'their guy' and deride those of the opposition, but it's seemed particularly stark this cycle

NorthernBlitz

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4326 on: October 01, 2018, 10:16:58 AM »
more than  a 1000 shot in Chicago by June 4.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-weekend-violence-roundup-20180604-story.html

Not my idea of paradise.

Only 81 killed in Toronto by comparison with 202 in Chicago.   Cities are the same size.   Climate is similar.    The only difference is Justin Trudeau instead of Donald Trump.    And firearms restrictions.   Just sayin, it's pretty good up here.

I bet those ratios were similar when it was Harper and Obama.

Yeah agree, look I'm all for gun control but interpretations like this don't do any favours. 81 vs 200 in cities of millions of people doesn't seem much. You can protest "it's 150% more in the 'Murican city", but they're both quite low numbers as a proportion of total population.

Now if it was 5 or 6 in Toronto vs 500-600 in Chicago, then I would sit up and take notice.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

I was only commenting on the Trudeau vs. Trump comment.

I think it's pretty clear that this is a very complex issue. It's also one that existed before both leaders took office, so blaming / crediting them with the difference seems way off base (especially claiming that it's the only difference).

I get that people hate Trump. I also think he's not a good leader.

But, I think that ratcheting down the hyperbole is usually a good idea.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4327 on: October 01, 2018, 10:20:50 AM »
Toronto policing is pretty far removed from federal politics as a whole . . . the Toronto police service gets their funding and direction from the council.  While we benefit from sensible gun regulation, a public rather than private penal system, and a social safety net the policing decisions don't have much to do with who the current Prime Minister is.

Inaya

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4328 on: October 01, 2018, 11:21:49 AM »
The party of states' rights is at it again. Now they're suing California over that state's new Net Neutrality protections before the ink is even dry.  https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/30/technology/net-neutrality-california.html

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4329 on: October 01, 2018, 11:45:17 AM »
The party of states' rights is at it again. Now they're suing California over that state's new Net Neutrality protections before the ink is even dry.  https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/30/technology/net-neutrality-california.html
State's Rights as long as that state conforms to their socially-conservative, pro-business model.

Actually I was thinking about this on my way into work, and how it could open a can of worms for them down the line.  For the last decade+ the GOP has argued fairly successfully that internet service providers (ISPs) are not essential services, ergo efforts to provide them to every citizen are unfounded and unconstitutional.

Now Sessions and the DOJ are using the interstate commerce clause to sue California, and seem to be suggesting that, by adhering to their own higher standards, California will add an undue hurdle to goods and services to and from other states. In essence, this seems to bolster the case that ISPs are a necessary part of modern life.  I wonder if this will make their arguments that not all people need high-speed internet access will be damaged later on...

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4330 on: October 01, 2018, 12:12:49 PM »
State's Rights as long as that state conforms to their socially-conservative, pro-business model.

I think even that is giving them too much credit.  They're not motivated by some grand capitalist philosophy.  It's just about Jesus.

They don't support a state's right to legalize marijuana, abortion, or gay marriage, for example.  Weed and gay weddings are both hugely pro-capitalism, pro-entrepreneur, pro-profit industries that republicans basically oppose on religious grounds.  Religion appears to be the only common theme in what republicans do support, when it comes to federal vs state rights.

Which is why it was so surprising when the party lined up behind the most godless man on earth.  As it turns out, they're pragmatic zealots.  They are more than happy to throw in with a heathen if it helps advance the faith's long term policy goals.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2018, 01:07:47 PM by sol »

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4331 on: October 01, 2018, 12:30:28 PM »
I don't think it's entirely religious (although some of it certainly is).  States rights are also generally supported by Republicans when they are pushing racist policy.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4332 on: October 01, 2018, 01:10:25 PM »
I don't think it's entirely religious (although some of it certainly is).  States rights are also generally supported by Republicans when they are pushing racist policy.

Sure, except that racist and pro-religion were basically overlapping sets, for most of American history.  They argued that black people shouldn't vote because the bible clearly supports slavery as the natural order of things.

And it still echoes today.  Do you think it coincidental that so many hard right conservatives, who are wholly driven by religion, are also kind of racist?  Somehow the racism isn't part of their religious agenda, but everything else clearly is?

caracarn

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4333 on: October 02, 2018, 12:29:59 PM »
The US imprisons a greater percentage of it's citizens than any other country in the world.  If being tougher on crime worked, one would expect the US to have some of the lowest crime in the world.  :P
If you are meaning to imply this point regarding gun incidents, keep in mind that the US has a large number of reasons the prison population is so high including many in for drug offenses, a huge population in local jails that are not convicted, simply being held (465K/615K or 75%) among other things.  Crime statistics outside of drugs have trended down for a while, so not sure what point you are trying to make, but thinking you are not making the point you think you are.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4334 on: October 02, 2018, 01:28:00 PM »
The US imprisons a greater percentage of it's citizens than any other country in the world.  If being tougher on crime worked, one would expect the US to have some of the lowest crime in the world.  :P
If you are meaning to imply this point regarding gun incidents, keep in mind that the US has a large number of reasons the prison population is so high including many in for drug offenses, a huge population in local jails that are not convicted, simply being held (465K/615K or 75%) among other things.  Crime statistics outside of drugs have trended down for a while, so not sure what point you are trying to make, but thinking you are not making the point you think you are.

Imprisonment is one of several numbers used that pretty clearly shows the US is currently very tough on crime.  Imprisonment is at an all time high in the US.  The punishment rate is extremely high in the US (https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2016/03/the-punishment-rate).  My point was simply that being 'tough on crime' isn't a very effective strategy as borne out by the evidence.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4335 on: October 02, 2018, 01:32:50 PM »
This is my shocked face that Trump got lots of money from his father and engaged in tax fraud.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cu


scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4336 on: October 02, 2018, 04:59:42 PM »
The US imprisons a greater percentage of it's citizens than any other country in the world.  If being tougher on crime worked, one would expect the US to have some of the lowest crime in the world.  :P
If you are meaning to imply this point regarding gun incidents, keep in mind that the US has a large number of reasons the prison population is so high including many in for drug offenses, a huge population in local jails that are not convicted, simply being held (465K/615K or 75%) among other things.  Crime statistics outside of drugs have trended down for a while, so not sure what point you are trying to make, but thinking you are not making the point you think you are.

Imprisonment is one of several numbers used that pretty clearly shows the US is currently very tough on crime.  Imprisonment is at an all time high in the US.  The punishment rate is extremely high in the US (https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2016/03/the-punishment-rate).  My point was simply that being 'tough on crime' isn't a very effective strategy as borne out by the evidence.

Hmmm.   Pretty sure that Andrew Scheer guy has 'tough on crime' as part of his political platform for next year.    Sigh.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4337 on: October 02, 2018, 06:33:07 PM »
The US imprisons a greater percentage of it's citizens than any other country in the world.  If being tougher on crime worked, one would expect the US to have some of the lowest crime in the world.  :P
If you are meaning to imply this point regarding gun incidents, keep in mind that the US has a large number of reasons the prison population is so high including many in for drug offenses, a huge population in local jails that are not convicted, simply being held (465K/615K or 75%) among other things.  Crime statistics outside of drugs have trended down for a while, so not sure what point you are trying to make, but thinking you are not making the point you think you are.

Imprisonment is one of several numbers used that pretty clearly shows the US is currently very tough on crime.  Imprisonment is at an all time high in the US.  The punishment rate is extremely high in the US (https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2016/03/the-punishment-rate).  My point was simply that being 'tough on crime' isn't a very effective strategy as borne out by the evidence.

Hmmm.   Pretty sure that Andrew Scheer guy has 'tough on crime' as part of his political platform for next year.    Sigh.

Yep.  Modern social conservatives are always 'tough on crime' because they don't really care about results, they care about appealing to people who believe in vengeance against evildoers (regardless of the social costs).

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4338 on: October 03, 2018, 07:03:29 AM »

Yep.  Modern social conservatives are always 'tough on crime' because they don't really care about results, they care about appealing to people who believe in vengeance against evildoers (regardless of the social costs).

And it doesn't really work that well.  I had a tour of the old jail in L'Orignal, and saw the gallows.  It was used regularly, so obviously it was not a great deterrent.  The cells were horrible too, and the thought of living there for some length of time was not a deterrent either.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4339 on: October 03, 2018, 08:28:26 AM »
This is my shocked face that Trump got lots of money from his father and engaged in tax fraud.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cu

Yes, I've seen a lot of anti-trump people crowing about this NYT story.

So he's not self-made after all? Which means his qualifications for being President were...the fact that he won the office of President?

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4340 on: October 03, 2018, 08:44:30 AM »
This is my shocked face that Trump got lots of money from his father and engaged in tax fraud.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cu

Yes, I've seen a lot of anti-trump people crowing about this NYT story.

So he's not self-made after all? Which means his qualifications for being President were...the fact that he won the office of President?

I've literally never seen someone say Trump was qualified to be president because he was allegedly a self-made billionaire.

What this shows is that he has a demonstrable practice of tax fraud and he has been directly involved in cheating (to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars) on taxes.

Dabnasty

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4341 on: October 03, 2018, 08:46:07 AM »
This is my shocked face that Trump got lots of money from his father and engaged in tax fraud.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cu

Yes, I've seen a lot of anti-trump people crowing about this NYT story.

So he's not self-made after all? Which means his qualifications for being President were...the fact that he won the office of President?

That's not a qualification, it's a result. Lot's of people voted for him based on his mad business skills. That's like saying a lobster is qualified to be an accountant because he lied on his resume and someone hired him. "He got hired" is his qualification? He still can't use a keyboard with those delicious meaty claws and even if he could, his spreadsheet skills would be horrendous. Stupid lobster probably doesn't even know how to sort for duplicate entries.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4342 on: October 03, 2018, 08:48:51 AM »
This is my shocked face that Trump got lots of money from his father and engaged in tax fraud.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cu

Yes, I've seen a lot of anti-trump people crowing about this NYT story.

So he's not self-made after all? Which means his qualifications for being President were...the fact that he won the office of President?

Wait - is there anyone out there who thinks that Trump wasn't born into wealth and privilege?  He's the son of Fred Trump for god's sakes.  At various stages in his life he was loaned and inherited millions of dollars.  By the NYT's accounting Fred lent his son at least $60MM.  The entire 2016 primary was filled with talk about how much Trump inherited from his father (Rubio placed it at $100MM, a figure that hasn't been debunked nor confirmed, thought Trump himself has said he inherited "a few million").

One can debate whether he's been effective at turning that wealth into even greater wealth (the "did he beat the stock market" debate - impossible to answer without knowing his actual NW). But I haven't heard anyone try to argue that Donald didn't start his adult life out managing millions from his dad's real estate business.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4343 on: October 03, 2018, 08:50:25 AM »
This is my shocked face that Trump got lots of money from his father and engaged in tax fraud.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cu

Yes, I've seen a lot of anti-trump people crowing about this NYT story.

So he's not self-made after all? Which means his qualifications for being President were...the fact that he won the office of President?

I've literally never seen someone say Trump was qualified to be president because he was allegedly a self-made billionaire.




Except Trump.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4344 on: October 03, 2018, 10:05:11 AM »
The article does indeed list many times when they think Trump and his siblings oversaw activities that could only be described as fraudulent.

In addition, there are clearly several policies that have caused our tax code to unfairly favor real estate and to favor the wealthy (real estate tax deductions and practices, and the starvation of resources that would otherwise enable the IRS to properly pursue issues like these). Addressing these policies will require long-term focus of political will that will be impossible until Trump is no longer in office. Even then, that political will may be lacking, because many people in power will still be wealthy real-estate owners and many others will simply be relieved that Trump is not President (and that Ivanka failed to succeed him in the office).

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4345 on: October 03, 2018, 10:27:07 AM »
The article does indeed list many times when they think Trump and his siblings oversaw activities that could only be described as fraudulent.

In addition, there are clearly several policies that have caused our tax code to unfairly favor real estate and to favor the wealthy (real estate tax deductions and practices, and the starvation of resources that would otherwise enable the IRS to properly pursue issues like these). Addressing these policies will require long-term focus of political will that will be impossible until Trump is no longer in office. Even then, that political will may be lacking, because many people in power will still be wealthy real-estate owners and many others will simply be relieved that Trump is not President (and that Ivanka failed to succeed him in the office).

I'd start with transparency. The wealthy will always favor policies that allow them to become more wealthy, but ultimately inequality (or perceived inequality) get representatives tossed out by the masses who see themselves as suffering.  It's been the Dems signature card for 7+ decades.
When donors and taxes and earnings are all opaque those in power can do whatever they want.  When there's forced transparency and accountability they at least have to give lip-service and convince a subset of the masses that they are still working in their best interest - that becomes very difficult when everything looks like fraud and evasion and loop-holes.

Democracy requires legitimacy to function, legitimacy requires transparency.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4346 on: October 03, 2018, 12:31:40 PM »
DJT mocks Ford and rails against the 'plight of men' the same day that the NYT drops a blockbuster story detailing how his family purposefully and illegally hid hundreds of millions in assets from taxation in what they call "persistently illegal conduct".  The degree and severity of these charges are absolutely staggering and involves DJT, his late father and his siblings over a period of several years.

Is DJT making controversy to deflect from this latest bombshell?

caracarn

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4347 on: October 03, 2018, 12:41:05 PM »
Is DJT making controversy to deflect from this latest bombshell?
He'd never do that, would he?!  Why would you accuse him of such a thing?!  You must be joking, right?

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4348 on: October 03, 2018, 04:25:34 PM »
I knew it.    One of my more conservative colleagues was telling me how Trump had built a large scale business providing thousands of jobs, but I didn't believe him.

Everything about Donald Trump is fake.      Game over.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4349 on: October 03, 2018, 04:33:46 PM »
I knew it.    One of my more conservative colleagues was telling me how Trump had built a large scale business providing thousands of jobs, but I didn't believe him.

Everything about Donald Trump is fake.      Game over.
My sarcasm meter is pinging.

But, that aside, while Trump does run an organization that does provide a number of jobs, the issue here is the tax fraud. Whether he built it or broke even as a result of his subsequent business dealings isn't really the issue. NYT has done a deep dive on these records, but ultimately the rubber meets the road when an investigation that has access to more records (like tax returns) can complete the story. As told, it looks pretty shady. That said, there are a lot of things that are technically legal that seem shady and it could end up being a nothingburger, even if it seems like a lot of content now.