Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 404695 times)

Rural

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4665
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4150 on: September 10, 2018, 06:59:10 PM »
Clearly I am too tired to be posting, as I saw this thread and read it as So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Pregnancy...


The mind wobbles. OTOH, that would surely be better...

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4151 on: September 10, 2018, 08:26:00 PM »
Clearly I am too tired to be posting, as I saw this thread and read it as So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Pregnancy...

wait, if Trump is pregnant, who is the father?

Rural

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4665
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4152 on: September 10, 2018, 09:05:10 PM »
Clearly I am too tired to be posting, as I saw this thread and read it as So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Pregnancy...

wait, if Trump is pregnant, who is the father?


The answer which immediately occurred to me is too rude to post.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 12287
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4153 on: September 11, 2018, 07:23:17 AM »
Clearly I am too tired to be posting, as I saw this thread and read it as So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Pregnancy...

wait, if Trump is pregnant, who is the father?

Putin, obviously.

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4154 on: September 11, 2018, 08:00:41 AM »
Bingo Nereo.

Are you a public servant or are you using the position to enrich yourself? Where are your priorities Mr. President? Kind of hard to tell. Romney and McCain both had issues with their wealth and they were pretty above board and tansparent about it all. I just don't understand how a rich city slicker New York "billionaire" can win over a bunch of salt of the earth people....actually I do and it's quite sad. Oy.

Indeed I think we're seeing exactly how rich "billionaires win over "salt of the earth" people. Tax cuts, tariffs, and judges.

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4155 on: September 11, 2018, 08:04:36 AM »
There are plenty of heirs to large fortunes who manage to lose it all and only make news in "what are they doing now" profiles. Trump was at least successful at spinning his inherited wealth into notoriety.

While not releasing his tax returns is bad, I think the failure to wall himself off from his business interests is far worse. Regarding the former, I found the Eric Trump argument that making them public would open them up to data mining and heightened tax liabilities actually compelling.
Is that an increased tax liability, or revelation of tax underpayment via shelters and/or omission?

I suspect that optimizing taxes (for billionaires) is about walking a line in which an accountant must choose how aggressive to be in declaring and documenting stuff. Trump would fire an accountant whom he thought to be "playing it safe". And as voluminous as his interests are, at least some part of the business is probably under audit constantly.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4156 on: September 11, 2018, 08:17:55 AM »
Bingo Nereo.

Are you a public servant or are you using the position to enrich yourself? Where are your priorities Mr. President? Kind of hard to tell. Romney and McCain both had issues with their wealth and they were pretty above board and tansparent about it all. I just don't understand how a rich city slicker New York "billionaire" can win over a bunch of salt of the earth people....actually I do and it's quite sad. Oy.

Indeed I think we're seeing exactly how rich "billionaires win over "salt of the earth" people. Tax cuts, tariffs, and judges.

I agree these are the three things that supporters of DJT point to as reasons for their continued support, but the first two (tax cuts & tariffs) make little sense to me as to why. Tariffs are tax cuts that we, the consumers, pay to buy products that we were already buying in large amounts. For every job that's 'protected' by tariffs another 3 are burdoned, if latest reports are accurate.
This latest round of tax cuts was largely about reducing the corporate tax rate, allowing more pass-through income and lowering the overall taxable burden for the top earners.  Those at or below the median income have seen a change of a few dollars per paycheck, at best (and many will not reap any savings from this tax cut).

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4157 on: September 11, 2018, 08:30:14 AM »

I suspect that optimizing taxes (for billionaires) is about walking a line in which an accountant must choose how aggressive to be in declaring and documenting stuff. Trump would fire an accountant whom he thought to be "playing it safe". And as voluminous as his interests are, at least some part of the business is probably under audit constantly.

This line of thinking irks me.  While DJT and others might view the tax code as mere suggestions to be interpreted as one likes, the tax code is actually law.  To be sure there are decisions to be made, mostly about whether to sell certain holdings to offset taxable burden (e.g. 'tax-loss harvesting'), and how you set up and conduct your business makes a big difference in your total taxable burden, but at the end of the year you are either following the law or you are not.

As for the likelihood of his business being under continuous audit - I find that highly skeptical. The IRS only audits ~0.7% of returns per year.  They have their own algorithms to flag suspicious behavior, but his argument that he can't release his taxes because of ongoing audits is both disingenuous (you can release returns under audit) and extremely improbable.

Even if his latest returns were under audit, he could release previous years' statements, as Romney, McCain, Clinton, Bush, Obama and others did. Given the practical statue of limitations is 6 years for non-criminal behavior his argument that his taxes before 2011 are entangled in audits rings completely hollow.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7492
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4158 on: September 11, 2018, 09:07:57 AM »
Indeed I think we're seeing exactly how rich "billionaires win over "salt of the earth" people. Tax cuts, tariffs, and judges.

Also praising Nazis, making fun of the disabled, and pussy grabbing.  He's the whole package.

sequoia

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 552
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4159 on: September 11, 2018, 09:48:39 AM »
Bingo Nereo.

Are you a public servant or are you using the position to enrich yourself? Where are your priorities Mr. President? Kind of hard to tell. Romney and McCain both had issues with their wealth and they were pretty above board and tansparent about it all. I just don't understand how a rich city slicker New York "billionaire" can win over a bunch of salt of the earth people....actually I do and it's quite sad. Oy.


Indeed I think we're seeing exactly how rich "billionaires win over "salt of the earth" people. Tax cuts, tariffs, and judges.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely

Today is 9/11. The president is schedules to make a speech. I really hope that I am wrong, but I bet his speech is going to be about him or whatever else that is not important today instead of 9/11.


x02947

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 28
  • Location: The South
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4160 on: September 11, 2018, 10:14:09 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/09/11/and-now-its-the-tallest-trump-in-otherwise-somber-9-11-interview-couldnt-help-touting-one-of-his-buildings/?utm_term=.80d9c8505c4a&wpisrc=nl_az_most&wpmk=1

On 9/11 itself apparently Trump did a local radio interview and said, on air, that
"40 Wall Street actually was the second-tallest building in downtown Manhattan, and it was actually, before the World Trade Center, was the tallest — and then, when they built the World Trade Center, it became known as the second tallest,” Trump said in the WWOR interview. “And now it’s the tallest.”

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3402
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4161 on: September 11, 2018, 10:22:31 AM »
And then there's this incredibly gross moment.

In this photo (taken this morning), the President is on his way to a 9/11 memorial to mourn the loss of the people who died on Flight 93. Why is he mugging and "fist-pumping" for the cameras? As an American, I'm just horrified and disgusted. Almost physically ill.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-begins-solemn-9-11-anniversary-tweets-about-fbi-russia-n908401?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7492
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4162 on: September 11, 2018, 10:45:51 AM »
to mourn the loss of the people who died on Flight 93. Why is he mugging and "fist-pumping" for the cameras?

Be thankful he didn't get a "build the wall!" chant going in the crowd today.  Take your small victories wherever you can find them. 

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3402
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4163 on: September 11, 2018, 10:47:43 AM »
to mourn the loss of the people who died on Flight 93. Why is he mugging and "fist-pumping" for the cameras?

Be thankful he didn't get a "build the wall!" chant going in the crowd today.  Take your small victories wherever you can find them.

The day is still young.

Just Joe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2208
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4164 on: September 11, 2018, 11:20:40 AM »
Clearly I am too tired to be posting, as I saw this thread and read it as So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Pregnancy...

wait, if Trump is pregnant, who is the father?

Putin, obviously.

Pence would be flipping out - a gay transgender President? What IS the world coming to???

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7492
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4165 on: September 11, 2018, 11:30:30 AM »
Pence would be flipping out - a gay transgender President? What IS the world coming to???

It is worse than a serial philanderer who has cheated on all of his wives?  With porn stars and playboy bunnies, and then committed felonies to cover it up?  And lied about it?

Trump's personal character is so abhorrent to someone like Mike Pence that I can't imagine that changing his clothes could possibly make that much difference at this point.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2018, 11:52:45 AM by sol »

Just Joe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2208
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4166 on: September 11, 2018, 11:48:43 AM »
You are very correct.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7492
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4167 on: September 11, 2018, 11:55:03 AM »
You are very correct.

I'm pretty sure Pence doesn't give two shits who Trump is sleeping with.  Like if he hasn't spoken up by now, what else would it take?

I suppose there is a very slim chance that Pence is totally willing to overlook Trump cheating on his post-partum wife with a porn star mistress, but would be horrified by Trump consummating his romance with Putin just because Putin is a man.   Like maybe the evangelical Christian right has finally accepted infidelity and lying as Jesus-approved, but gayness is still evil?  I can never follow their logic anyway.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4168 on: September 11, 2018, 12:07:49 PM »
Pence was put on the ticket to lock down the evangelical vote, but inso doing, Pence himself has traded away the moral high-ground.  My guess is that he did it to get Gorsuch and Kavangaugh and (hopefully) lock the court up as very conservative for another 20 years.

Wonder if he'll think it was worth it on his deathbed, forever remembered as Trump's biggest supporter and defender.

Glenstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2071
  • Age: 186
  • Location: Seattle!
  • Target FI date 2027 (maybe?)
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4169 on: September 11, 2018, 01:36:58 PM »
I would just like to point out an example of agreeing with a statement by a Trump appointee:
http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/406103-ceo-of-drug-company-calls-400-percent-price-increase-moral-requirement

The quote below begins with a quote from a pharmaceutical CEO:
Quote
“I agree with Martin Shkreli that when he raised the price of his drug he was within his rights because he had to reward his shareholders,” Mulye said.

“If he’s the only one selling it, then he can make as much money as he can,” he added. “This is a capitalist economy, and if you can’t make money, you can’t stay in business.”

Mulye's comments prompted swift backlash from Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb.

"There's no moral imperative to price gouge and take advantage of patients," Gottlieb tweeted.

Capitalism has a lot of benefits, but it also has a lot of downfalls when need is inelastic and one party only has a profit motive.

PathtoFIRE

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 537
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Dallas
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4170 on: September 11, 2018, 02:09:16 PM »
Now I'm picturing Pence curled up in a fetal position every night, Mother comforting him, with the scene set to Mother by Pink Floyd. Thanks for the laugh

Glenstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2071
  • Age: 186
  • Location: Seattle!
  • Target FI date 2027 (maybe?)
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4171 on: September 11, 2018, 02:15:49 PM »
Now I'm picturing Pence curled up in a fetal position every night, Mother comforting him, with the scene set to Mother by Pink Floyd. Thanks for the laugh

Those lyrics work surprisingly well!

Quote
Mother do you think they'll drop the bomb?
Mother do you think they'll like this song?
Mother do you think they'll try to break my balls?
Ooh, ah
Mother should I build the wall?
Mother should I run for President?
Mother should I trust the government?
Mother will they put me in the firing mine?
Ooh ah,
Is it just a waste of time?
Hush now baby, baby, don't you cry.
Mama's gonna make all your nightmares come true.
Mama's gonna put all her fears into you.
Mama's gonna keep you right here under her wing.
She won't let you fly, but she might let you sing.
Mama's gonna keep baby cozy and warm.
Ooh baby, ooh baby, ooh baby,
Of course mama's gonna help build the wall.
Mother do you think she's good enough, for me?
Mother do you think she's dangerous, to me?
Mother…

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4172 on: September 11, 2018, 02:19:54 PM »
I would just like to point out an example of agreeing with a statement by a Trump appointee:
http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/406103-ceo-of-drug-company-calls-400-percent-price-increase-moral-requirement

The quote below begins with a quote from a pharmaceutical CEO:
Quote
“I agree with Martin Shkreli that when he raised the price of his drug he was within his rights because he had to reward his shareholders,” Mulye said.

“If he’s the only one selling it, then he can make as much money as he can,” he added. “This is a capitalist economy, and if you can’t make money, you can’t stay in business.”

Mulye's comments prompted swift backlash from Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb.

"There's no moral imperative to price gouge and take advantage of patients," Gottlieb tweeted.

Capitalism has a lot of benefits, but it also has a lot of downfalls when need is inelastic and one party only has a profit motive.

The pharmaceutical market is the antithesis of a free-market system. Companies get exclusive rights to sell drugs (patents) for an extensive period of time. Those drugs are often a non-optional commodity for the consumer (patient). Adding to this closed ecosystem, one cannot simply start their own pharmaceutical company and start selling off-patent ('generic') drugs very easily. It takes years and dozens of permits and inspections for the FDA to sign off on medications from a new supplier. Then you can't market Rx drugs directly to patients, but instead you must sell to certified hospitals and phramacies, almost all of which have contracts with the larger drug makers. If there's an existing treatment on the market you must undergo lengthy and expensive trials to show that your new drugs are a 'significant improvement' (not just equal to) those already available, and 'cheaper' is rarely considered a 'significant improvement' in the regulators' eyes.

There are good reasons why all of these restrictions exist, but I find the defense of rising drug prices as "free markets at work" to be laughably false. One could accurately describe the pharmaceutical companies as 'legal cartels'

sequoia

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 552
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4173 on: September 11, 2018, 02:39:16 PM »
Pence was put on the ticket to lock down the evangelical vote, but inso doing, Pence himself has traded away the moral high-ground.  My guess is that he did it to get Gorsuch and Kavangaugh and (hopefully) lock the court up as very conservative for another 20 years.

Wonder if he'll think it was worth it on his deathbed, forever remembered as Trump's biggest supporter and defender.

I think he knows what he is getting into and he is fine with it.

He is probably praying that the president would do something that would cause him to get impeached, and he can be the president. 

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4174 on: September 11, 2018, 03:17:30 PM »
Pence was put on the ticket to lock down the evangelical vote, but inso doing, Pence himself has traded away the moral high-ground.  My guess is that he did it to get Gorsuch and Kavangaugh and (hopefully) lock the court up as very conservative for another 20 years.

Wonder if he'll think it was worth it on his deathbed, forever remembered as Trump's biggest supporter and defender.

I think he knows what he is getting into and he is fine with it.

He is probably praying that the president would do something that would cause him to get impeached, and he can be the president.

Could be.  However, historically speaking, vice presidents have not fared very well getting to be President.  Of those that made the jump from VP to Pres have rarely enjoyed two terms.  Ironically, Nixon seems to high-water mark for VPs (in a manner of speaking)

List of modern VPs that did not become President:  Barkley, Humphrey, Agnew, Rockefeller, Mondale, Quayle, Gore, Cheney, Biden...
List of VPs that served just 1 term:  Ford†, Bush Sr., Johnson*
List of VPs that served more than one termp as President: Nixon**

† Ford was never elected President, nor elected VP.  He lost the only Presidential race he participated in to Carter.
* elected one term plus served out 1 year after JFK was assasinated
** Of all the VPs in the last half-century, only Nixon was elected twice (then resigned in disgrace).

Of those 13 listed above, only Cheney never ran for President. Biden ran in '08 but not after serving as VP.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2018, 03:30:32 PM by nereo »

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4175 on: September 12, 2018, 07:37:38 AM »
Pence was put on the ticket to lock down the evangelical vote, but inso doing, Pence himself has traded away the moral high-ground.  My guess is that he did it to get Gorsuch and Kavangaugh and (hopefully) lock the court up as very conservative for another 20 years.

Wonder if he'll think it was worth it on his deathbed, forever remembered as Trump's biggest supporter and defender.

I think he knows what he is getting into and he is fine with it.

He is probably praying that the president would do something that would cause him to get impeached, and he can be the president.

Could be.  However, historically speaking, vice presidents have not fared very well getting to be President.  Of those that made the jump from VP to Pres have rarely enjoyed two terms.  Ironically, Nixon seems to high-water mark for VPs (in a manner of speaking)

List of modern VPs that did not become President:  Barkley, Humphrey, Agnew, Rockefeller, Mondale, Quayle, Gore, Cheney, Biden...
List of VPs that served just 1 term:  Ford†, Bush Sr., Johnson*
List of VPs that served more than one termp as President: Nixon**

† Ford was never elected President, nor elected VP.  He lost the only Presidential race he participated in to Carter.
* elected one term plus served out 1 year after JFK was assasinated
** Of all the VPs in the last half-century, only Nixon was elected twice (then resigned in disgrace).

Of those 13 listed above, only Cheney never ran for President. Biden ran in '08 but not after serving as VP.

Expanding your window out a little: Thomas Jefferson ascended from VP (election) to become a two-term President. Martin Van Buren was VP and elected President, I've never studied enough to know what happened in 1840 election that he didn't win. Teddy Roosevelt ascended in 1901, was re-elected in 1904. Coolidge (who replaced Harding) was re-elected in 1925. Truman was re-elected in 1948. LBJ was re-elected in 1964.

FIPurpose

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 799
  • Location: ME
    • FI With Purpose
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4176 on: September 12, 2018, 08:21:51 AM »
Pence was put on the ticket to lock down the evangelical vote, but inso doing, Pence himself has traded away the moral high-ground.  My guess is that he did it to get Gorsuch and Kavangaugh and (hopefully) lock the court up as very conservative for another 20 years.

Wonder if he'll think it was worth it on his deathbed, forever remembered as Trump's biggest supporter and defender.

I think he knows what he is getting into and he is fine with it.

He is probably praying that the president would do something that would cause him to get impeached, and he can be the president.

Could be.  However, historically speaking, vice presidents have not fared very well getting to be President.  Of those that made the jump from VP to Pres have rarely enjoyed two terms.  Ironically, Nixon seems to high-water mark for VPs (in a manner of speaking)

List of modern VPs that did not become President:  Barkley, Humphrey, Agnew, Rockefeller, Mondale, Quayle, Gore, Cheney, Biden...
List of VPs that served just 1 term:  Ford†, Bush Sr., Johnson*
List of VPs that served more than one termp as President: Nixon**

† Ford was never elected President, nor elected VP.  He lost the only Presidential race he participated in to Carter.
* elected one term plus served out 1 year after JFK was assasinated
** Of all the VPs in the last half-century, only Nixon was elected twice (then resigned in disgrace).

Of those 13 listed above, only Cheney never ran for President. Biden ran in '08 but not after serving as VP.

Expanding your window out a little: Thomas Jefferson ascended from VP (election) to become a two-term President. Martin Van Buren was VP and elected President, I've never studied enough to know what happened in 1840 election that he didn't win. Teddy Roosevelt ascended in 1901, was re-elected in 1904. Coolidge (who replaced Harding) was re-elected in 1925. Truman was re-elected in 1948. LBJ was re-elected in 1964.

Well Jefferson was VP before the 12th amendment. Also most states did not elect presidential electors by vote at the time. South Carolina I believe was the last holdout for this tradition, not voting for president directly until after the civil war. Even in Jackson's election, there were still 6 states electing president through the legislature. So any election before then could be more easily seen as a cursus honorum: A necessity of working your way up before running for president.

Martin Van Buren's win is very strange. The opposing party, the Whig's, couldn't pick a single candidate. So they decided to run all 4. The Whigs did not hold a national convention. Basically any state convention could put a name forward. Even if one candidate couldn't win enough electors, the house would pick one.

The election of 1840, the whigs finally held a convention to only nominate one candidate. Coupled with an economic downturn that happened during his presidency, Van Buren was destined to lose.

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4177 on: September 12, 2018, 09:19:38 AM »
Pence was put on the ticket to lock down the evangelical vote, but inso doing, Pence himself has traded away the moral high-ground.  My guess is that he did it to get Gorsuch and Kavangaugh and (hopefully) lock the court up as very conservative for another 20 years.

Wonder if he'll think it was worth it on his deathbed, forever remembered as Trump's biggest supporter and defender.

I think he knows what he is getting into and he is fine with it.

He is probably praying that the president would do something that would cause him to get impeached, and he can be the president.

Could be.  However, historically speaking, vice presidents have not fared very well getting to be President.  Of those that made the jump from VP to Pres have rarely enjoyed two terms.  Ironically, Nixon seems to high-water mark for VPs (in a manner of speaking)

List of modern VPs that did not become President:  Barkley, Humphrey, Agnew, Rockefeller, Mondale, Quayle, Gore, Cheney, Biden...
List of VPs that served just 1 term:  Ford†, Bush Sr., Johnson*
List of VPs that served more than one termp as President: Nixon**

† Ford was never elected President, nor elected VP.  He lost the only Presidential race he participated in to Carter.
* elected one term plus served out 1 year after JFK was assasinated
** Of all the VPs in the last half-century, only Nixon was elected twice (then resigned in disgrace).

Of those 13 listed above, only Cheney never ran for President. Biden ran in '08 but not after serving as VP.

Expanding your window out a little: Thomas Jefferson ascended from VP (election) to become a two-term President. Martin Van Buren was VP and elected President, I've never studied enough to know what happened in 1840 election that he didn't win. Teddy Roosevelt ascended in 1901, was re-elected in 1904. Coolidge (who replaced Harding) was re-elected in 1925. Truman was re-elected in 1948. LBJ was re-elected in 1964.

Well Jefferson was VP before the 12th amendment. Also most states did not elect presidential electors by vote at the time. South Carolina I believe was the last holdout for this tradition, not voting for president directly until after the civil war. Even in Jackson's election, there were still 6 states electing president through the legislature. So any election before then could be more easily seen as a cursus honorum: A necessity of working your way up before running for president.

Martin Van Buren's win is very strange. The opposing party, the Whig's, couldn't pick a single candidate. So they decided to run all 4. The Whigs did not hold a national convention. Basically any state convention could put a name forward. Even if one candidate couldn't win enough electors, the house would pick one.

The election of 1840, the whigs finally held a convention to only nominate one candidate. Coupled with an economic downturn that happened during his presidency, Van Buren was destined to lose.

Thank you for this great analysis!

You are correct, I should have considered the depression of 1837, combined with Van Buren representing the third consecutive Democratic term.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7492
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4178 on: September 12, 2018, 09:35:51 AM »
You are correct, I should have considered the depression of 1837, combined with Van Buren representing the third consecutive Democratic term.

This forum is weird.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4179 on: September 12, 2018, 10:41:26 AM »
Pence was put on the ticket to lock down the evangelical vote, but inso doing, Pence himself has traded away the moral high-ground.  My guess is that he did it to get Gorsuch and Kavangaugh and (hopefully) lock the court up as very conservative for another 20 years.

Wonder if he'll think it was worth it on his deathbed, forever remembered as Trump's biggest supporter and defender.

I think he knows what he is getting into and he is fine with it.

He is probably praying that the president would do something that would cause him to get impeached, and he can be the president.

Could be.  However, historically speaking, vice presidents have not fared very well getting to be President.  Of those that made the jump from VP to Pres have rarely enjoyed two terms.  Ironically, Nixon seems to high-water mark for VPs (in a manner of speaking)

List of modern VPs that did not become President:  Barkley, Humphrey, Agnew, Rockefeller, Mondale, Quayle, Gore, Cheney, Biden...
List of VPs that served just 1 term:  Ford†, Bush Sr., Johnson*
List of VPs that served more than one termp as President: Nixon**

† Ford was never elected President, nor elected VP.  He lost the only Presidential race he participated in to Carter.
* elected one term plus served out 1 year after JFK was assasinated
** Of all the VPs in the last half-century, only Nixon was elected twice (then resigned in disgrace).

Of those 13 listed above, only Cheney never ran for President. Biden ran in '08 but not after serving as VP.

Expanding your window out a little: Thomas Jefferson ascended from VP (election) to become a two-term President. Martin Van Buren was VP and elected President, I've never studied enough to know what happened in 1840 election that he didn't win. Teddy Roosevelt ascended in 1901, was re-elected in 1904. Coolidge (who replaced Harding) was re-elected in 1925. Truman was re-elected in 1948. LBJ was re-elected in 1964.

Well Jefferson was VP before the 12th amendment. Also most states did not elect presidential electors by vote at the time. South Carolina I believe was the last holdout for this tradition, not voting for president directly until after the civil war. Even in Jackson's election, there were still 6 states electing president through the legislature. So any election before then could be more easily seen as a cursus honorum: A necessity of working your way up before running for president.

Martin Van Buren's win is very strange. The opposing party, the Whig's, couldn't pick a single candidate. So they decided to run all 4. The Whigs did not hold a national convention. Basically any state convention could put a name forward. Even if one candidate couldn't win enough electors, the house would pick one.

The election of 1840, the whigs finally held a convention to only nominate one candidate. Coupled with an economic downturn that happened during his presidency, Van Buren was destined to lose.

Thank you for this great analysis!

You are correct, I should have considered the depression of 1837, combined with Van Buren representing the third consecutive Democratic term.
I put up those facts to illustrate an interesting idea - that in modern politics (post WWII) it is actually a disadvantage to be VP first if you plan on runnnig for President. That's contrary to how much governments and corporations function, as well as how our country functioned in the past (as illustrated by @talltexan & @FIPurpose, where VPs often became president preWWII (add Adams and a few others to those earlier lists).
One can speculate as to why - my personal theory is that, after 8 years the populace in general wants a change, and there's a big 'enthusiasm gap' between the party which held the office.  If the previous president only served for 1 term he was deemed ineffective and so, by extension, was his VP.

partgypsy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2436
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4180 on: September 12, 2018, 11:04:58 AM »
Also, you have to think about the reasons why modern day vps are picked. It is usually not because that party feels that person is 2nd best person qualified to be president. It's picking someone who is considered appealing in some fashion, or addressing deficiencies in the presidential pick. So you have the Dan Quayles and Sarah Palins who are photogenic but not presidential material.  Cheney was picked to address the "inexperience" concerns about GW. If it was really to pick someone who might be considered 2nd best, one would pick the person in that party who got 2nd most votes (such as Bernie Sanders for Hillary). But that is rarely done. 

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4181 on: September 12, 2018, 12:12:23 PM »
George HW Bush finished second to Reagan in the 1980 GOP Primaries.

Jon Edwards finished second to Kerry in the 2004 Democratic Primaries

So the second-most votes thing has been tried. Perhaps the best example of the VP-meaning you're "nevah gon' be President now" was Senator Clinton opting for Sec'y of State when Obama defeated her in the 2008 primary, leaving the VP slot open for--ultimately--Joe Biden.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4182 on: September 12, 2018, 12:24:46 PM »

So the second-most votes thing has been tried. Perhaps the best example of the VP-meaning you're "nevah gon' be President now" was Senator Clinton opting for Sec'y of State when Obama defeated her in the 2008 primary, leaving the VP slot open for--ultimately--Joe Biden.

I don't think one follows the other here.

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4183 on: September 12, 2018, 01:13:17 PM »
I will claim--without evidence--that Obama offered Clinton the VP job, but she opted for Sec. of State thinking it would better position her to run for President in 2016 (which she would have done had Obama been unseated in 2012, too).

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4184 on: September 12, 2018, 01:27:20 PM »
I will claim--without evidence--that Obama offered Clinton the VP job, but she opted for Sec. of State thinking it would better position her to run for President in 2016 (which she would have done had Obama been unseated in 2012, too).
ah.  Ok, i understand what you were suggesting now...

wenchsenior

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1823
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4185 on: September 12, 2018, 05:22:35 PM »
I will claim--without evidence--that Obama offered Clinton the VP job, but she opted for Sec. of State thinking it would better position her to run for President in 2016 (which she would have done had Obama been unseated in 2012, too).

My understanding of that situation was that the Obama team considered offering Clinton the VP slot, but decided against it. However, once Obama won, he was strongly committed to getting her for SoS, despite the negative personal feelings the campaign had fostered and the objections of some of his team.  In fact, the story is that when she indicated she wanted to take a break from government altogether, Obama personally called her at home one night and wooed her intensely.  And their personal relationship improved a lot during her tenure in that WH.

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4186 on: September 13, 2018, 07:01:15 AM »
It would be fair to VP Biden to note that he, too, was a primary candidate in 2008.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_presidential_campaign,_2008

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4187 on: September 13, 2018, 08:24:33 AM »
It would be fair to VP Biden to note that he, too, was a primary candidate in 2008.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_presidential_campaign,_2008
Um... which is why i said “Biden ran in ‘08 but not after serving as VP”

Inaya

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1541
  • Age: 33
  • Location: Chicago, IL
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4188 on: September 13, 2018, 09:31:31 AM »
So if when Kavanaugh is confirmed, despite clear perjury during his confirmation hearings, does that mean he could be impeached and disbarred later because of said perjury? Would this offer an opportunity to get a less conservative Justice in his place?

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7492
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4189 on: September 13, 2018, 09:38:12 AM »
So if when Kavanaugh is confirmed, despite clear perjury during his confirmation hearings, does that mean he could be impeached and disbarred later because of said perjury?

Don't count on it.  The nature of autocratic takeovers is that the old rules no longer apply once you've captured enough different parts of government.  Are other republican judges going to go after one of their own?  Do you think a republican Congress would object to his perjury?  Is a republican Supreme Court going to object to Russians interfering in Congressional elections to ensure republican victories?  Is Trump going to do anything about Russian interference?

No, these problems are all self-reinforcing.  A democratic takeover of Congress is the last possible avenue America has to save itself, and I fear it's already too late for that if the reports of foreign infiltration of the upcoming elections are even half true.  Every other branch is already compromised, and that only makes it easier to compromise whatever parts are left.

sequoia

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 552
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4190 on: September 13, 2018, 10:17:40 AM »
Oh hey here it is... I was wondering when he was going blame Democrats...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/13/politics/trump-puerto-rico-death-toll/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/furious-democrats-blast-trump-s-beyond-ridiculous-puerto-rico-death-n909286

Praying for folks on the east coast where Florence is going to hit here soon.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2018, 10:19:43 AM by sequoia »

bacchi

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3186
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4191 on: September 13, 2018, 11:40:12 AM »
Oh hey here it is... I was wondering when he was going blame Democrats...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/13/politics/trump-puerto-rico-death-toll/index.html

It's interesting to see the Trumpy Florida GOP contender disagree with Trump. He expects the Puerto Rico vote to not go his (Trump's) way. There was enough PR migration into Florida to worry Republicans.


Glenstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2071
  • Age: 186
  • Location: Seattle!
  • Target FI date 2027 (maybe?)
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4192 on: September 13, 2018, 01:06:25 PM »
This from talking points memo is pretty interesting:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-fix-is-in

Apparently, Trump and Manfort have a joint defense agreement in which they share information. This suggests that Team Trump and Team Manafort have probably been discussing what is in the plea bargains that have been on the table. In context, this seems a bit frustrating.

MasterStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1766
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4193 on: September 14, 2018, 05:35:37 AM »
Oh hey here it is... I was wondering when he was going blame Democrats...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/13/politics/trump-puerto-rico-death-toll/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/furious-democrats-blast-trump-s-beyond-ridiculous-puerto-rico-death-n909286

Praying for folks on the east coast where Florence is going to hit here soon.

Oh those dead folks are just actors, you know, like the Sandy Hook parents. Perhaps he is just trying to out-Jones Alex Jones.

fuzzy math

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 635
  • Location: PNW ---> Midwest (for now)
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4194 on: September 14, 2018, 06:37:44 AM »
Well, Putin has been poisoning people again. This time it’s Pussy Riot’s ex boyfriend.

I don’t understand how the most war happy nationalistic group of people can be ok with another country puppeting us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4195 on: September 14, 2018, 07:01:05 AM »
Manafort is said to be near a plea-deal with Mueller's team to avoid a trial in DC next week, after having been found guilty on 8 counts in Virginia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/13/us/politics/manafort-plea-deal-prosecutors.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Politics

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4196 on: September 14, 2018, 07:36:09 AM »
Manafort is said to be near a plea-deal with Mueller's team to avoid a trial in DC next week, after having been found guilty on 8 counts in Virginia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/13/us/politics/manafort-plea-deal-prosecutors.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Politics

Hey, look at that! 
Manafort has agreed to a plea deal on the second set of federal charges.
This brings the total number of people who have plead guilty to 6 (Flynn, Cohen, Gates, Papadopolous, van der Zwaan and Manafort).
Manafort had already been found guilty on 8 counts at his trial last month in Virginia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/manafort-plans-to-plead-guilty-to-second-set-of-charges/2018/09/14/a1541068-b5c9-11e8-a7b5-adaaa5b2a57f_story.html?utm_term=.9c8dc6475aa1

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4197 on: September 14, 2018, 07:55:53 AM »
Virginia convictions are important because a Presidential pardon cannot affect them.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7492
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4198 on: September 14, 2018, 08:00:39 AM »
This brings the total number of people who have plead guilty to 6 (Flynn, Cohen, Gates, Papadopolous, van der Zwaan and Manafort).

At this point, it's maybe easier to ask who isn't guilty.  Which members of the administration have been investigated and come away clean?

For an investigation that half the country thinks is a futile witch hunt, there sure are a lot of real criminals involved.

p.s. you missed Pinedo and Patten in that list of guilty pleas, just off the top of my head.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2018, 11:11:40 AM by sol »

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8787
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #4199 on: September 14, 2018, 08:52:33 AM »
This brings the total number of people who have plead guilty to 6 (Flynn, Cohen, Gates, Papadopolous, van der Zwaan and Manafort).

At this point, it's maybe easier to ask who isn't guilty.  Which members of the administration have been investigated and come away clean?

For an investigation that half the country thinks is a futile witch hunt, there sure are a lot of real criminals involved.

It's been an absolute FAILURE of a WITCH HUNT!  Mueller has not caught one single witch, and what's worse, Mueller can't focus!  He keeps getting distracted in his search for witches by all these criminals!  Your tax dollars at work!