Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 263486 times)

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3150 on: July 24, 2018, 11:19:40 AM »
I'm guessing that the pocketbook is the main concern and that cultural wars are secondary.

I think you're living in fantasy land.  Rural poor white American voted to repeal their own health insurance.  They voted to raise their own taxes.  They voted to cut their own unemployment benefits, their jobs retraining programs, their access to abortion, and funding for their opioid addictions. 

The culture war is the only thing that matters to them, because the wealthy elite wing of the republican party has totally owned them.  Like all successful plutocrats throughout history, they retain their complete economic dominance by convincing the poor underclass to gleefully perpetuate their own oppression.  Counting on economic issues to turn the tide against trump is wishing on a falling star.

The pocketbook doesn't matter right now because the pocketbook doesn't matter. The economy is strong, the F150 is the most sold vehicle in America, and people have largely recovered from 2008. There's time to turn to other things, like worrying about BLM or gay marriage. When the economy falters, the party in charge takes the hit.

There will always be the ~25% who would vote for Trump for life or enforce Christian Taliban law, just as ~25% thought Nixon was ok with breaking into the Democratic office, but it's the moderate 25% Republicans that have more sense and can be swayed.

Or, yeah, I could be living in fantasy land. In which case, it's all about Democratic enthusiasm. The Rs are losing that battle, too, as we become more urban.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3151 on: July 24, 2018, 11:41:08 AM »
I'm guessing that the pocketbook is the main concern and that cultural wars are secondary.

I think you're living in fantasy land.  Rural poor white American voted to repeal their own health insurance.  They voted to raise their own taxes.  They voted to cut their own unemployment benefits, their jobs retraining programs, their access to abortion, and funding for their opioid addictions. 

The culture war is the only thing that matters to them, because the wealthy elite wing of the republican party has totally owned them.  Like all successful plutocrats throughout history, they retain their complete economic dominance by convincing the poor underclass to gleefully perpetuate their own oppression.  Counting on economic issues to turn the tide against trump is wishing on a falling star.

The pocketbook doesn't matter right now because the pocketbook doesn't matter. The economy is strong, the F150 is the most sold vehicle in America, and people have largely recovered from 2008. There's time to turn to other things, like worrying about BLM or gay marriage. When the economy falters, the party in charge takes the hit.

There will always be the ~25% who would vote for Trump for life or enforce Christian Taliban law, just as ~25% thought Nixon was ok with breaking into the Democratic office, but it's the moderate 25% Republicans that have more sense and can be swayed.

Or, yeah, I could be living in fantasy land. In which case, it's all about Democratic enthusiasm. The Rs are losing that battle, too, as we become more urban.

I have to say I'm with Sol on this one. I came of age during the seventies-eighties, and remember well the recession of 1979-81. The same people in my family who today voted for Trump were in the same economic situation then, and they were bitching about the exact same shit. They blamed the n*****s and the g**ks then, and today they're blaming the brown people, and Hillary, and I guess trans people wanting to go to the bathroom? They will never see that Trump's policies have hurt them. It will always be the fault of whoever Trump says it is. Because Trump makes them feel better, even as he's shafting them daily.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3152 on: July 24, 2018, 12:12:31 PM »
I'm guessing that the pocketbook is the main concern and that cultural wars are secondary.

I think you're living in fantasy land.  Rural poor white American voted to repeal their own health insurance.  They voted to raise their own taxes.  They voted to cut their own unemployment benefits, their jobs retraining programs, their access to abortion, and funding for their opioid addictions. 

The culture war is the only thing that matters to them, because the wealthy elite wing of the republican party has totally owned them.  Like all successful plutocrats throughout history, they retain their complete economic dominance by convincing the poor underclass to gleefully perpetuate their own oppression.  Counting on economic issues to turn the tide against trump is wishing on a falling star.

The pocketbook doesn't matter right now because the pocketbook doesn't matter. The economy is strong, the F150 is the most sold vehicle in America, and people have largely recovered from 2008. There's time to turn to other things, like worrying about BLM or gay marriage. When the economy falters, the party in charge takes the hit.

There will always be the ~25% who would vote for Trump for life or enforce Christian Taliban law, just as ~25% thought Nixon was ok with breaking into the Democratic office, but it's the moderate 25% Republicans that have more sense and can be swayed.

Or, yeah, I could be living in fantasy land. In which case, it's all about Democratic enthusiasm. The Rs are losing that battle, too, as we become more urban.

I have to say I'm with Sol on this one. I came of age during the seventies-eighties, and remember well the recession of 1979-81. The same people in my family who today voted for Trump were in the same economic situation then, and they were bitching about the exact same shit. They blamed the n*****s and the g**ks then, and today they're blaming the brown people, and Hillary, and I guess trans people wanting to go to the bathroom? They will never see that Trump's policies have hurt them. It will always be the fault of whoever Trump says it is. Because Trump makes them feel better, even as he's shafting them daily.

Not saying you're wrong, but elections aren't won by the vast masses of entrenched ideologues that you describe. They're won on the fringe, by the people who choose to stay home or those with weak political allegiances. If one person out of 100 had voted for Clinton instead of Trump, we'd have a different president right now. This is the difference between winning and losing in a national election. You'll never persuade the Fox News lemmings to abandon Trump, but you absolutely do not need them to defeat him.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3153 on: July 24, 2018, 12:26:57 PM »

Not saying you're wrong, but elections aren't won by the vast masses of entrenched ideologues that you describe. They're won on the fringe, by the people who choose to stay home or those with weak political allegiances. If one person out of 100 had voted for Clinton instead of Trump, we'd have a different president right now. This is the difference between winning and losing in a national election. You'll never persuade the Fox News lemmings to abandon Trump, but you absolutely do not need them to defeat him.

It's not even 1 out of 100 switching from DJT to HRC - it's getting just a fraction of the 5 million extra people who voted for Obama in 2008 compared to HRC in 2016.
Sol raised an interesting point; as a proportion of the total electorate, McCain (59MM) got as many votes as Romney (61MM) who got as many as Trump (62MM).
It's hard for me to see how more people would come out to vote for Trump in 2020 than 2016; the question to me is simply whether the Dem candidate can exceed HRC's vote total, even if only by 1 or 2%. More importantly, can teh Dems get 1% greater turnout in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (all lost by < 1%)?

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3154 on: July 24, 2018, 01:46:06 PM »

Not saying you're wrong, but elections aren't won by the vast masses of entrenched ideologues that you describe. They're won on the fringe, by the people who choose to stay home or those with weak political allegiances. If one person out of 100 had voted for Clinton instead of Trump, we'd have a different president right now. This is the difference between winning and losing in a national election. You'll never persuade the Fox News lemmings to abandon Trump, but you absolutely do not need them to defeat him.

It's not even 1 out of 100 switching from DJT to HRC - it's getting just a fraction of the 5 million extra people who voted for Obama in 2008 compared to HRC in 2016.
Sol raised an interesting point; as a proportion of the total electorate, McCain (59MM) got as many votes as Romney (61MM) who got as many as Trump (62MM).
It's hard for me to see how more people would come out to vote for Trump in 2020 than 2016; the question to me is simply whether the Dem candidate can exceed HRC's vote total, even if only by 1 or 2%. More importantly, can teh Dems get 1% greater turnout in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (all lost by < 1%)?

Yeah, you're technically right. I mean, if you want to get technical, you really only needed 0.41% of people to vote HRC instead of DJT (assuming said people were evenly distributed across the country). That's just 1 in 244.

OR, if we hold Trump voters steady and assume increased turnout, then we needed an additional 0.82% of turnout if 100% of the additional turnout voted for HRC. That's a little over 1 million voters out of 130 million.

But I was just using the 1 in 100 number for illustrative purposes. Point is, the margins in the last election were unbelievably thin. Those who assume that economic troubles wouldn't spell doom for Trump's reelection bid in 2020 are glossing over just how fragile his winning coalition was.

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3155 on: July 24, 2018, 03:37:00 PM »
What about the federal deficit?   It's forecast to hit $1T pretty soon - that's around $3000 for every person living in the US every year.

I predict that Donald will continue his deficit program.   The economy will boom.

When he eventually retires from politics the next bunch will have to sort everything out.    The economy will turn down.

Donald will say that if he'd been in charge things would still be great.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3156 on: July 24, 2018, 04:51:28 PM »
What about the federal deficit?   It's forecast to hit $1T pretty soon - that's around $3000 for every person living in the US every year.

I predict that Donald will continue his deficit program.   The economy will boom.

When he eventually retires from politics the next bunch will have to sort everything out.    The economy will turn down.

Donald will say that if he'd been in charge things would still be great.

The GOP wants to use the ballooning deficit as an excuse to get rid of Social Security and all the rest of the Entitlement programs.  I don't expect them to succeed, but I don't see any administration that doesn't come in with a blindingly obvious mandate to fix things proposing "I will raise taxes back to reasonable levels, to resolve the debt crisis and preserve the social safety net."

Remember when Trump suggested the US simply default on its debt?  I don't doubt he would do it if he could, he thinks that is what you do with debt.

LaineyAZ

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3157 on: July 24, 2018, 07:01:51 PM »
I think the story of how "if only the 80,000 +/- blue collar workers would have voted for HRC" than things would be different is not looking at the entire stats of who all actually voted for Trump.  The blame is being put on Dems because they showed "contempt" for these workers and that's why they voted for Trump as a backlash.

Ta-Nehisi Coates latest book, "We Were Eight Years in Power - An American Tragedy" includes an epilogue with a breakdown of voters.  As Coates says, "...in this analysis Trump's racism and the racism of his supporters are incidental to his rise.  … evidence for economic decline as a driving force (my emphasis) among Trump's supporters is, at best, mixed.  … Trump's white support was not confined by income.  … Trump won whites making less than $50,000 by 20 points, whites making between 50,000 and $100,000 by 28 points, and whites making $100,000 or more by 14 points.  … Trump won white women (+9) and white men (+31).  He won white people with college degrees (+3) and white people without them (+37).  He won young whites, age 18 to 29 (+4), adult whites, age 30 to 44 (+17), middle-age whites, age 45 to 64(+28), and senior whites, age 65 and older (+19).  … In no state did Trump's white support dip below 40 percent. … From beer track to wine track, from soccer moms to NASCAR dads, Trump's performance among whites was dominant."

Trump's biggest campaign applause line was "build the wall."  The fear of the brown horde is real, and although many of those who actually voted for Trump may never admit that is a big reason they wanted him, I think it's still a real factor for the next election as well.


scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3158 on: July 24, 2018, 07:29:10 PM »
What about the federal deficit?   It's forecast to hit $1T pretty soon - that's around $3000 for every person living in the US every year.

I predict that Donald will continue his deficit program.   The economy will boom.

When he eventually retires from politics the next bunch will have to sort everything out.    The economy will turn down.

Donald will say that if he'd been in charge things would still be great.

The GOP wants to use the ballooning deficit as an excuse to get rid of Social Security and all the rest of the Entitlement programs.  I don't expect them to succeed, but I don't see any administration that doesn't come in with a blindingly obvious mandate to fix things proposing "I will raise taxes back to reasonable levels, to resolve the debt crisis and preserve the social safety net."

Remember when Trump suggested the US simply default on its debt?  I don't doubt he would do it if he could, he thinks that is what you do with debt.

That's right, Trump was actually very good at taking risks with other people's money.   Now he's doing it again.

Radagast

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3159 on: July 24, 2018, 10:38:12 PM »
What about the federal deficit?   It's forecast to hit $1T pretty soon - that's around $3000 for every person living in the US every year.

I predict that Donald will continue his deficit program.   The economy will boom.

When he eventually retires from politics the next bunch will have to sort everything out.    The economy will turn down.

Donald will say that if he'd been in charge things would still be great.
Though, throwing this out, I have seen written that $1T is 5% of the current $20T deficit. If inflation is 2.5% and the economy actually grows at 2.5% (which may or may not be wishful thinking) then $1T is deficit neutral. So, not really an issue.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3160 on: July 24, 2018, 10:42:52 PM »
What about the federal deficit?   It's forecast to hit $1T pretty soon - that's around $3000 for every person living in the US every year.

I predict that Donald will continue his deficit program.   The economy will boom.

When he eventually retires from politics the next bunch will have to sort everything out.    The economy will turn down.

Donald will say that if he'd been in charge things would still be great.
Though, throwing this out, I have seen written that $1T is 5% of the current $20T deficit. If inflation is 2.5% and the economy actually grows at 2.5% (which may or may not be wishful thinking) then $1T is deficit neutral. So, not really an issue.

Don’t forget about the cost to service said debt and that 20T that is still hanging out there.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3161 on: July 24, 2018, 10:47:01 PM »
Though, throwing this out, I have seen written that $1T is 5% of the current $20T deficit. If inflation is 2.5% and the economy actually grows at 2.5% (which may or may not be wishful thinking) then $1T is deficit neutral. So, not really an issue.
Let's say you planned to sell your house, and borrowed $100,000 to renovate it, and because of the renovation you were able to sell if for $100,000 more, would you consider that money and time well-spent?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3162 on: July 24, 2018, 10:50:21 PM »
What about the federal deficit?   It's forecast to hit $1T pretty soon - that's around $3000 for every person living in the US every year.

I predict that Donald will continue his deficit program.   The economy will boom.

When he eventually retires from politics the next bunch will have to sort everything out.    The economy will turn down.

Donald will say that if he'd been in charge things would still be great.
Though, throwing this out, I have seen written that $1T is 5% of the current $20T deficit. If inflation is 2.5% and the economy actually grows at 2.5% (which may or may not be wishful thinking) then $1T is deficit neutral. So, not really an issue.

Don’t forget about the cost to service said debt and that 20T that is still hanging out there.
Right. But it is deficit neutral because relative to what we already had those are not proportionally larger (under the 5% growth+inflation assumption, and also maybe an assumption that tax growth equals economy growth).

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3163 on: July 24, 2018, 10:54:32 PM »
Though, throwing this out, I have seen written that $1T is 5% of the current $20T deficit. If inflation is 2.5% and the economy actually grows at 2.5% (which may or may not be wishful thinking) then $1T is deficit neutral. So, not really an issue.
Let's say you planned to sell your house, and borrowed $100,000 to renovate it, and because of the renovation you were able to sell if for $100,000 more, would you consider that money and time well-spent?
If it kept the plebes happy, yes.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3164 on: July 25, 2018, 01:45:48 AM »
I've just started watching Rachael Maddow 24/7/2018.  15 minutes in, and so far -

1.  The White House has doctored both the official transcript and video of the Trump/Putin press conference to remove the "Did you[Putin] want Trump to win?" question.  The Kremlin has similarly (not quite exactly) doctored their transcript.

2.  Trump recently retweeted a fake Russian video of Hillary Clinton with the Russian TV logo still in the picture and it was picked up as true by right-wing media.


What the fuck?  This is scary shit.

How long are people still going to be calling the USA the "leader of the free world"?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3165 on: July 25, 2018, 05:38:29 AM »

How long are people still going to be calling the USA the "leader of the free world"?
Near as I can tell from my travels and living outside the US - only people from within the US really call the US the "leader of the free world".  It's basically a self-appointed title, and not one that really reflects current reality.  Biggest economy and military? sure.  But "the" (singular) leader?  most democratic countries would refute that idea.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3166 on: July 25, 2018, 05:39:07 AM »
I've just started watching Rachael Maddow 24/7/2018.  15 minutes in, and so far -

1.  The White House has doctored both the official transcript and video of the Trump/Putin press conference to remove the "Did you[Putin] want Trump to win?" question.  The Kremlin has similarly (not quite exactly) doctored their transcript.

2.  Trump recently retweeted a fake Russian video of Hillary Clinton with the Russian TV logo still in the picture and it was picked up as true by right-wing media.


What the fuck?  This is scary shit.

How long are people still going to be calling the USA the "leader of the free world"?

I don’t think many people are calling us that anymore.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3167 on: July 25, 2018, 06:02:22 AM »
How long are people still going to be calling the USA the "leader of the free world"?

We aren't and I don't anymore. Leadership doesn't just mean leading by example, but also respect. Trump exhibits neither of those traits.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3169 on: July 25, 2018, 07:27:47 AM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/struggling-russia-cuts-military-spending-could-weaken-its-forces-2018-5

Well, this is awkward.

Why would Russia spend on their military when they have direct control of the commander in chief of the largest military in the world?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3170 on: July 25, 2018, 07:34:54 AM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/struggling-russia-cuts-military-spending-could-weaken-its-forces-2018-5

Serious (yet somewhat philosophical) question:  Why this acute focus on getting dozens of other countries to ramp up military spending?  In effect what we are promoting is a global arms race.  Why aren't we trying to promote a world where all countries (allies and adversaries) spend less on their militaries?
The cynic in me thinks it has something to do with the industro-military complex and the clout they have for pushing policies. The historical buff in me thinks we are just trying to 'win' against China the same way we did against teh USSR (by outspending them militarily) - only China has 10x the population of Russia and has substantially more resources at their disposal.

On a related note, suppose Russia, N. Korea and China all reduced their military expansions (either due to political agreements or on their own accord) - would we still keep trying to modernize and expand our military? Is there anythuing that could get us to scale down this perpetual $600B+ (and expanding) expense?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3171 on: July 25, 2018, 07:37:51 AM »
Trump's ego and tough guy-ism demands that he increase the military spending. It also plays well with the ignorant base.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3172 on: July 25, 2018, 07:45:15 AM »
I think the story of how "if only the 80,000 +/- blue collar workers would have voted for HRC" than things would be different is not looking at the entire stats of who all actually voted for Trump.  The blame is being put on Dems because they showed "contempt" for these workers and that's why they voted for Trump as a backlash.

Ta-Nehisi Coates latest book, "We Were Eight Years in Power - An American Tragedy" includes an epilogue with a breakdown of voters.  As Coates says, "...in this analysis Trump's racism and the racism of his supporters are incidental to his rise.  … evidence for economic decline as a driving force (my emphasis) among Trump's supporters is, at best, mixed.  … Trump's white support was not confined by income.  … Trump won whites making less than $50,000 by 20 points, whites making between 50,000 and $100,000 by 28 points, and whites making $100,000 or more by 14 points.  … Trump won white women (+9) and white men (+31).  He won white people with college degrees (+3) and white people without them (+37).  He won young whites, age 18 to 29 (+4), adult whites, age 30 to 44 (+17), middle-age whites, age 45 to 64(+28), and senior whites, age 65 and older (+19).  … In no state did Trump's white support dip below 40 percent. … From beer track to wine track, from soccer moms to NASCAR dads, Trump's performance among whites was dominant."

Trump's biggest campaign applause line was "build the wall."  The fear of the brown horde is real, and although many of those who actually voted for Trump may never admit that is a big reason they wanted him, I think it's still a real factor for the next election as well.

To be clear, I wasn't "blaming" anyone. I certainly wasn't pointing to a specific demographic group.

Honestly, I think that Trump's election was probably a wakeup call that the Democratic party desperately needed. Yeah, things would be "different" if HRC were elected. We would be facing the prospect of a conservative backlash in the 2018 midterms that would lead to Republicans tightening their stranglehold on state houses around country, just in time for the 2020 census and congressional gerrymandering redistricting. Instead of the Democrats facing a "challenging" Senate map this fall, but still expected to keep close to half of the seats, we'd be looking at Republicans taking control of filibuster-proof majority. An already heavily Republican Congress would be winning elections in Democratic strongholds. All this in anticipation of Hillary likely getting knocked off by a more competent Republican in 2020 (parties just don't maintain control of the White House for 16 years. She would have been a one-term prez no matter how competent she may have been.)

Yeah, it fucking sucks what Trump is doing to America right now, but I still not convinced that we won't be better off in the end simply because of the backlash he's creating. Honestly, my biggest fear is that he gets knocked off in the 2020 elections, just as the economy is falling through the sewer grate a la 2008. The new Democratic president gets handed a shit sandwich just like Obama did, and a new breed of Tea Partiers spawns to oppose him, starting the cycle all over again. Anyway. Viva la resistance!

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3173 on: July 25, 2018, 08:17:44 AM »
Thanks, MM.  I didn't mean to point to any poster here specifically, but it's become a meme for the Dems to say, Oh, if only Bill Maher hadn't made fun of religion/rednecks/Republican legislators, who therefore felt "disrespected", then those voters wouldn't have retaliated by voting for Trump.  That theme is still being used today by conservatives to explain the election results.

My point is, that scenario would have been true for a very small part of the electorate, if any, and is certainly not the dominant reason for their vote.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3174 on: July 25, 2018, 08:30:48 AM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/struggling-russia-cuts-military-spending-could-weaken-its-forces-2018-5

Serious (yet somewhat philosophical) question:  Why this acute focus on getting dozens of other countries to ramp up military spending?  In effect what we are promoting is a global arms race.  Why aren't we trying to promote a world where all countries (allies and adversaries) spend less on their militaries?
The cynic in me thinks it has something to do with the industro-military complex and the clout they have for pushing policies. The historical buff in me thinks we are just trying to 'win' against China the same way we did against teh USSR (by outspending them militarily) - only China has 10x the population of Russia and has substantially more resources at their disposal.

On a related note, suppose Russia, N. Korea and China all reduced their military expansions (either due to political agreements or on their own accord) - would we still keep trying to modernize and expand our military? Is there anythuing that could get us to scale down this perpetual $600B+ (and expanding) expense?

We spend the most on our military because our military maintains global security. The global economic system--which we created in the last 70 years--is what forestalled the kind of great power competition that led to two world wars. The rise of China as an economic power was threatening that system anyway, but their massive economy still cannot produce military equipment that's within a decade of our best stuff.

The gap between us and Russia is smaller in terms of military, but much larger because their economy is maybe the size of California's.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3175 on: July 25, 2018, 08:31:21 AM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-defends-putin-bromance-while-mattis-works-to-arm-russian-foe-2018-7

Odd; and this \/ hasn't gone anywhere.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36272686

Sounds like the pending NATO/US ground assualt on Russia is still pending(you know, as opposed to actually dismantling the idea, or I guess going ahead with it depending on your perspective). Maybe, again you think the forward advance should precede since a Kievian mob ousting a sitting Ukrainian president is perfectly legal and fine. Assuming that's your opinion.

hoping2retire35

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3176 on: July 25, 2018, 08:38:02 AM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/struggling-russia-cuts-military-spending-could-weaken-its-forces-2018-5

Serious (yet somewhat philosophical) question:  Why this acute focus on getting dozens of other countries to ramp up military spending?  In effect what we are promoting is a global arms race.  Why aren't we trying to promote a world where all countries (allies and adversaries) spend less on their militaries?
The cynic in me thinks it has something to do with the industro-military complex and the clout they have for pushing policies. The historical buff in me thinks we are just trying to 'win' against China the same way we did against teh USSR (by outspending them militarily) - only China has 10x the population of Russia and has substantially more resources at their disposal.

On a related note, suppose Russia, N. Korea and China all reduced their military expansions (either due to political agreements or on their own accord) - would we still keep trying to modernize and expand our military? Is there anythuing that could get us to scale down this perpetual $600B+ (and expanding) expense?

We spend the most on our military because our military maintains global security. The global economic system--which we created in the last 70 years--is what forestalled the kind of great power competition that led to two world wars. The rise of China as an economic power was threatening that system anyway, but their massive economy still cannot produce military equipment that's within a decade of our best stuff.

The gap between us and Russia is smaller in terms of military, but much larger because their economy is maybe the size of California's.

More than a decade ago we were running through Iraq in 36 hours; so I don't take great solace in this statement.

We really don't have the motivation to be a world police anymore. The Nazis are not making a European empire that can hamper our international business(the Russians are heading in the opposite direction, demographically, economically, and security wise), and as I said above they are becoming more integrated into Europe, by way of selling them NG and oil. Also, we don't need to secure oil from the Gulf to our Gulf anylonger; we are/soon to be net exporters.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3177 on: July 25, 2018, 10:49:28 AM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/struggling-russia-cuts-military-spending-could-weaken-its-forces-2018-5

Well, this is awkward.

Why would Russia spend on their military when they have direct control of the commander in chief of the largest military in the world?

I think it's funny how the article attributes the continued tightening of Russian finances on "western sanctions." I thought Obama didn't do anything, you know according to Trump.  Whoops, that is awkward indeed.

runbikerun

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3178 on: July 25, 2018, 01:57:02 PM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-defends-putin-bromance-while-mattis-works-to-arm-russian-foe-2018-7

Odd; and this \/ hasn't gone anywhere.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36272686

Sounds like the pending NATO/US ground assualt on Russia is still pending(you know, as opposed to actually dismantling the idea, or I guess going ahead with it depending on your perspective). Maybe, again you think the forward advance should precede since a Kievian mob ousting a sitting Ukrainian president is perfectly legal and fine. Assuming that's your opinion.

For a demographic so fond of the words "don't tread on me", the American right as it's currently constituted seems inordinately fond of bootlicking.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3179 on: July 25, 2018, 02:02:42 PM »
Only now that we have an Alpha male as commander-in-chief. There wouldn't have been any bootlicking of a beta c*ck like most of our previous Presidents were.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3180 on: July 25, 2018, 02:08:13 PM »
Only now that we have an Alpha male as commander-in-chief. There wouldn't have been any bootlicking of a beta c*ck like most of our previous Presidents were.
Can we keep this thread a bit more clean and constructive so that it doesn't get locked?  thank you.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3181 on: July 25, 2018, 02:37:06 PM »
Only now that we have an Alpha male as commander-in-chief.
Spoiler: show
There wouldn't have been any bootlicking of a beta c*ck like most of our previous Presidents were.

hiding parts of that for discretion's sake.
So, to be clear, as long as the GOP president is an alpha, the GOP will lick their boots and do whatever they say, even when it goes against everything the party has stood for for decades? That, right there, is a pretty damning indictment of the GOP.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3182 on: July 25, 2018, 02:43:58 PM »
Donald J Trump is an alpha male?



You might be confusing him for the man working the puppet strings - Vladimir Putin.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3183 on: July 25, 2018, 02:48:54 PM »
let's redirect here.  @talltexan - what actions has DJT taken as commander-in-chief that makes you approve of him over previous presidents?

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3184 on: July 25, 2018, 02:49:16 PM »
Only now that we have an Alpha male as commander-in-chief.
Spoiler: show
There wouldn't have been any bootlicking of a beta c*ck like most of our previous Presidents were.

hiding parts of that for discretion's sake.
So, to be clear, as long as the GOP president is an alpha, the GOP will lick their boots and do whatever they say, even when it goes against everything the party has stood for for decades? That, right there, is a pretty damning indictment of the GOP.

Holy shit, I thought that remark was meant sarcastically/ironically... until I saw who posted it.

Talltexan, all I have to say is....

AHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

OMG. Trump is an alpha male? Have you SEEN the way he sucks up to Putin? Have you noticed how unbelievably fragile his ego is?

Trump is a man baby. He's a man baby's idea of an alpha male. If he hadn't been born into money, he'd never get anyone to have sex with him.

Good lord. The blindness...

Dabnasty

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3185 on: July 25, 2018, 02:55:55 PM »
Only now that we have an Alpha male as commander-in-chief.
Spoiler: show
There wouldn't have been any bootlicking of a beta c*ck like most of our previous Presidents were.

hiding parts of that for discretion's sake.
So, to be clear, as long as the GOP president is an alpha, the GOP will lick their boots and do whatever they say, even when it goes against everything the party has stood for for decades? That, right there, is a pretty damning indictment of the GOP.

Holy shit, I thought that remark was meant sarcastically/ironically... until I saw who posted it.

Talltexan, all I have to say is....

AHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

OMG. Trump is an alpha male? Have you SEEN the way he sucks up to Putin? Have you noticed how unbelievably fragile his ego is?

Trump is a man baby. He's a man baby's idea of an alpha male. If he hadn't been born into money, he'd never get anyone to have sex with him.

Good lord. The blindness...

I still think it was sarcasm. Maybe you are thinking of another Texan...

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3186 on: July 25, 2018, 03:23:44 PM »
Only now that we have an Alpha male as commander-in-chief.
Spoiler: show
There wouldn't have been any bootlicking of a beta c*ck like most of our previous Presidents were.

hiding parts of that for discretion's sake.
So, to be clear, as long as the GOP president is an alpha, the GOP will lick their boots and do whatever they say, even when it goes against everything the party has stood for for decades? That, right there, is a pretty damning indictment of the GOP.

Holy shit, I thought that remark was meant sarcastically/ironically... until I saw who posted it.

Talltexan, all I have to say is....

AHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

OMG. Trump is an alpha male? Have you SEEN the way he sucks up to Putin? Have you noticed how unbelievably fragile his ego is?

Trump is a man baby. He's a man baby's idea of an alpha male. If he hadn't been born into money, he'd never get anyone to have sex with him.

Good lord. The blindness...

I still think it was sarcasm. Maybe you are thinking of another Texan...

Whatever it was, it was damn funny!

wenchsenior

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3187 on: July 25, 2018, 03:28:05 PM »
Only now that we have an Alpha male as commander-in-chief.
Spoiler: show
There wouldn't have been any bootlicking of a beta c*ck like most of our previous Presidents were.

hiding parts of that for discretion's sake.
So, to be clear, as long as the GOP president is an alpha, the GOP will lick their boots and do whatever they say, even when it goes against everything the party has stood for for decades? That, right there, is a pretty damning indictment of the GOP.

Holy shit, I thought that remark was meant sarcastically/ironically... until I saw who posted it.

Talltexan, all I have to say is....

AHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

OMG. Trump is an alpha male? Have you SEEN the way he sucks up to Putin? Have you noticed how unbelievably fragile his ego is?

Trump is a man baby. He's a man baby's idea of an alpha male. If he hadn't been born into money, he'd never get anyone to have sex with him.

Good lord. The blindness...

I still think it was sarcasm. Maybe you are thinking of another Texan...

Whatever it was, it was damn funny!

It's particularly funny b/c of the saying (often attributed to Texans):  All hat, no cattle.  Which sums up Trump's entire personality.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3188 on: July 25, 2018, 03:56:58 PM »
Only now that we have an Alpha male as commander-in-chief.
Spoiler: show
There wouldn't have been any bootlicking of a beta c*ck like most of our previous Presidents were.

hiding parts of that for discretion's sake.
So, to be clear, as long as the GOP president is an alpha, the GOP will lick their boots and do whatever they say, even when it goes against everything the party has stood for for decades? That, right there, is a pretty damning indictment of the GOP.

Holy shit, I thought that remark was meant sarcastically/ironically... until I saw who posted it.

Talltexan, all I have to say is....

AHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

OMG. Trump is an alpha male? Have you SEEN the way he sucks up to Putin? Have you noticed how unbelievably fragile his ego is?

Trump is a man baby. He's a man baby's idea of an alpha male. If he hadn't been born into money, he'd never get anyone to have sex with him.

Good lord. The blindness...

I still think it was sarcasm. Maybe you are thinking of another Texan...

I'n not sure... I did go back and look at TallTexan's other posts just now, though. He seems far too reasonable to be this crazy, so yes, I am going to have to believe he's kidding.

Whew. I was shook. LOL

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3189 on: July 25, 2018, 06:04:00 PM »
Well, this should be interesting:
http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/398902-gop-lawmakers-introduce-impeachment-resolution-against-rosenstein

The "Freedom Caucus" members of the House GOP  have introduced articles of impeachment... against Rod Rosenstein because they say he has a conflict of interest and has not produced documents fast enough.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3190 on: July 25, 2018, 08:43:57 PM »
Well, this should be interesting:
http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/398902-gop-lawmakers-introduce-impeachment-resolution-against-rosenstein

The "Freedom Caucus" members of the House GOP  have introduced articles of impeachment... against Rod Rosenstein because they say he has a conflict of interest and has not produced documents fast enough.

It's almost droll, how predictable this is.  Trump's only reaction to every one of his personal problems is to try to spin it around and attack his opponents with it.

He was the oldest person to ever run for office, so he attacked Clinton as too unhealthy to be President.
His foundation was fined for tax fraud, so he attacked the Clinton foundation as if it were corrupt.
The Russians supported his campaign, so he claims they are supporting the democrats.
Now he's under threat of impeachment, so he threatens to impeach someone else.

Frankly I'm amazed he hasn't publicly attacked anyone for cheating on their wife with a porn star and then paying hush money to cover it up.


cerat0n1a

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3191 on: July 26, 2018, 04:34:24 AM »
I've just started watching Rachael Maddow 24/7/2018.  15 minutes in, and so far -

1.  The White House has doctored both the official transcript and video of the Trump/Putin press conference to remove the "Did you[Putin] want Trump to win?" question.  The Kremlin has similarly (not quite exactly) doctored their transcript.

The BBC are not letting this one rest either - directly calling him out for flat out lying and his press spokesperson then following up to repeat the lies and how they've tried to remove Putin's answers from the transcripts.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44959300

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3192 on: July 26, 2018, 05:44:46 AM »

Frankly I'm amazed he hasn't publicly attacked anyone for cheating on their wife with a porn star and then paying hush money to cover it up.
Give it time  - remember, he hammered HRC for 'enabling' her husbands infidelity, and lined up a bunch of women who alleged sexual contact with Bill Clinton during the debate, which is in the same ballpark.  If he faces a male opponent I'd expect him to throw allegations out of affairs, coverups and rape, particularly since his own infidelity continues to dog him (latest example: Cohen's tape of the payoff for Karen McDougal's affair).

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3193 on: July 26, 2018, 05:52:36 AM »
I wonder why Stormy got $130,000 and McDougal got $150,000? How does Donald's pay scale work?
Funny he paid all this hush money and both stories are splashed all over the place.
Did Donald pay back David Pecker the $150,000?

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3194 on: July 26, 2018, 05:54:49 AM »
Frankly I'm amazed he hasn't publicly attacked anyone for cheating on their wife with a porn star and then paying hush money to cover it up.

Not really the same but he does bring up Bill Clinton. Football is coming up. It's about time for some more diversion tactics by attacking black athletes again. That really gets the white angry mob fired up!

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3195 on: July 26, 2018, 06:07:02 AM »
I wonder why Stormy got $130,000 and McDougal got $150,000? How does Donald's pay scale work?
Funny he paid all this hush money and both stories are splashed all over the place.
Did Donald pay back David Pecker the $150,000?

Sounds like McDougal got the, er, short end of the stick. She got $150 grand for a 10-month affair, while Stormy earned 87% as much for a one night stand.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3196 on: July 26, 2018, 06:46:55 AM »
Only now that we have an Alpha male as commander-in-chief.
Spoiler: show
There wouldn't have been any bootlicking of a beta c*ck like most of our previous Presidents were.

hiding parts of that for discretion's sake.
So, to be clear, as long as the GOP president is an alpha, the GOP will lick their boots and do whatever they say, even when it goes against everything the party has stood for for decades? That, right there, is a pretty damning indictment of the GOP.

Holy shit, I thought that remark was meant sarcastically/ironically... until I saw who posted it.

Talltexan, all I have to say is....

AHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

OMG. Trump is an alpha male? Have you SEEN the way he sucks up to Putin? Have you noticed how unbelievably fragile his ego is?

Trump is a man baby. He's a man baby's idea of an alpha male. If he hadn't been born into money, he'd never get anyone to have sex with him.

Good lord. The blindness...

I still think it was sarcasm. Maybe you are thinking of another Texan...

I'n not sure... I did go back and look at TallTexan's other posts just now, though. He seems far too reasonable to be this crazy, so yes, I am going to have to believe he's kidding.

Whew. I was shook. LOL

I apologize for being away from the discussion so long that my clarification of this partially sarcastic post was wanting.

I personally oppose Trump, and I think I have many other posts that express this. 

I think the sarcasm was hard to detect because it's pretty plain how much the GOP enables Trump. They do it because they're afraid of the plurality of GOP voters who nominated him and won him the White House. I am registered GOP, (you may have guessed that from my screen name) and--as I prepared for the 2018 primary season--all the research I did into Republican candidates made it clear that there was one issue they tried to win on: "I supported Donald Trump, and I started doing it before my opponent did."

In exchange for not sicking his voters on them, Trump and his associates are allowed a host of ethical breaches that were not seen since the Warren Harding administration. Scott Pruitt by himself (disclosure: I work for a public utility, so EPA really matters to us) was so corrupt that it was cartoonish, but he's hardly alone. When I share my concerns about these things with other republicans at work and home, however, all they tell me is that Trump has accomplished more in 500 days as President than Ronald Reagan did in his first term. It makes me feel as though Trump has bent reality in some way that was simply impossible for previous Presidents.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3197 on: July 26, 2018, 06:54:42 AM »
Frankly I'm amazed he hasn't publicly attacked anyone for cheating on their wife with a porn star and then paying hush money to cover it up.

Not really the same but he does bring up Bill Clinton. Football is coming up. It's about time for some more diversion tactics by attacking black athletes again. That really gets the white angry mob fired up!

Not the intended outcome I'm sure, but the reaction to silent demonstrations has been the proverbial straw which has turned us off watching the NFL. On top of the league's continued fumbling of concussions and willingness to forgive players for domestic assault and the escalating forced-worship of the military players are being given a pretty clear message - shut up and play regardless of personal harm or whats going on in your home life -  we own you.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3198 on: July 26, 2018, 06:57:39 AM »
I should address the other parts of the claim: I do think Trump is an Alpha male for several reasons (reminder: I am GOP #nevertrumper)

  • He's incredibly popular with the PUA community. Guys like Roosh V, etc., were in for Trump very early. These are the people who tried to build a brand in the early 2000's around teaching men to seduce women. (you might remember a reality show with a guy named Mystery that was about this) "Alpha" is a key signifier for this community, just as "beta" is an epithet. I think some of you object that Trump is not a true "alpha" because of the disastrous press conference in Helsinki. I'd argue that the whole construct of "alpha" is based on outmoded ideas of how people should interact that were born of a toxic masculine society from decades ago.
  • I've followed the writings of Scott Adams (the creator of Dilbert) to try to understand the rise of Trump, and how he hijacked my political movement. Adams would certainly characterize Trump as an "Alpha" male
  • Superficially, you see all the trappings of the "Alpha" lifestyle, the golden elevator, the sons who hunt african mega-fauna, the romantic involvement with models and porn-stars
  • Most importantly is the way he uses language: Trump's way of speaking is entirely devoid of fact. What he says is simply unrelated to any verifiable reality. He does not use words as a tool to provide information, but he does use them to signal social hierarchy. I don't think he intentionally lies, I think he's simply lived a life (inherited wealth, business owner, entertainer) that has caused him to develop this tool for language use to build his business.



Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3199 on: July 26, 2018, 07:24:07 AM »
Just saw this sobering glimpse into the future this morning.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/opinion/trump-re-election-2020.html?smid=fb-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

It encapsulates a lot that I’ve worried about.