Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 404026 times)

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2800 on: July 16, 2018, 02:32:40 PM »
Sure.  As long as we can both agree that Trump's behavior is treasonous but excepted from prosecution by legal technicality, it's all good.
You are welcome to make that argument, and it's not unreasonable, but it's also open to interpretation.  As there don't seem any immediate consequences (e.g., Putin hasn't invaded another country today, as he did in 2014), we can let things unfold and make an overall instead of kneejerk conclusion.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2801 on: July 16, 2018, 02:35:59 PM »
Can you imagine Obama having an unsupervised meeting with Putin...?
Yes, I can easily imagine any US President having an "unsupervised" (primarily because I don't know who the "supervisor" would be) meeting with another country's leader.  Don't see why that would be a problem regardless of the president's political affiliation.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2802 on: July 16, 2018, 02:37:37 PM »
I am sure that is why you jumped from 2012 to 2018. Sounds like an excuse one of my kids would give me. Trump was born on 3rd base and thinks he hit a triple. So do his supporters.
What excuse?  Obama probably would have won had he been eligible, with the improving economy one reason.  But he wasn't eligible, so it's irrelevant.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2803 on: July 16, 2018, 02:40:48 PM »
This reminds me of the debate around whether or not there was "collusion".  Legalyl speaking collusion is not a crime, whereas conspiracy is.  Ergo, the President and his supporters can correctly argue there was "NO COLLUSION", and in a legal sense they would be correct.  Relying on the common definition many believe collusion (e.g. secret cooperation between multiple people to cheat and deceive others)  has already been amply proven.
This isn't actually a debate though, this is just the "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters." premise playing out. He hasn't and likely won't lose any supporters regardless of any evidence presented to them.

And Mueller probably won't try to indict even if he does have criminal evidence b/c the ability to indict a sitting president is not legally settled.  And Trump won't be impeached (unless a truly unprecedented flip happens in the Senate in Nov).  So these debates about collusion, conspiracy, treason, etc., and the notion that somehow Mueller's investigation will get us out of this mess are kind of a waste of energy, IMO.

The protection against prosecution is only for a sitting President.  As soon as Trump is out of office (either in 2019 or 2023) he can be prosecuted, right?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2804 on: July 16, 2018, 02:43:05 PM »
At this point, the only remaining question is whether the US President is just an idiot, or is an active Russian agent.  He's actively undermining the United States in order to advance Russian foreign policy objectives, but I suppose there's still a chance he's a doddering old fool rather than the most successful KGB spy in history.

The 3rd possibility is that he's beholden to the Russians because of loans.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2805 on: July 16, 2018, 02:46:42 PM »
At this point, the only remaining question is whether the US President is just an idiot, or is an active Russian agent.  He's actively undermining the United States in order to advance Russian foreign policy objectives, but I suppose there's still a chance he's a doddering old fool rather than the most successful KGB spy in history.

The 3rd possibility is that he's beholden to the Russians because of loans.

That would effectively make him a KGB spy, no?

wenchsenior

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2806 on: July 16, 2018, 02:53:09 PM »
At this point, the only remaining question is whether the US President is just an idiot, or is an active Russian agent.  He's actively undermining the United States in order to advance Russian foreign policy objectives, but I suppose there's still a chance he's a doddering old fool rather than the most successful KGB spy in history.

The 3rd possibility is that he's beholden to the Russians because of loans.

Like I said, Occam's razor. 

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2807 on: July 16, 2018, 03:02:23 PM »
Can you imagine Obama having an unsupervised meeting with Putin...?
Yes, I can easily imagine any US President having an "unsupervised" (primarily because I don't know who the "supervisor" would be) meeting with another country's leader.  Don't see why that would be a problem regardless of the president's political affiliation.

You forgot the 2nd part of my quote. And the fact that Trump and his people including his son is under investigation for Russian interference in our election. Context is important.

I also agree with what others have said, that Trump meets the common parlance and understanding of the term treasonous. But he doesn't meet the constitutional definition of it. However it is very likely he has broken a number of federal laws involving election laws, receiving benefits from foreign nationals, and seditious conspiracy. Either way he needs to go. It's not even a partisan issue anymore. You don't want someone as president who is deferential and beholden to a foreign power, let alone a foreign power that is considered an adversary and has been shown to be interfering with our elections. It's sickening and repulsive.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2018, 03:04:33 PM by partgypsy »

Wexler

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2808 on: July 16, 2018, 03:09:02 PM »
We're at the stage of denial where Trump supporters are arguing about whether his behavior is technically treason.  That's not a good look.  It's a way worse look than arguing about "is" in relation to sexual relations.

I do agree that the end game is unlikely to be impeachment or jail for Trump.  We have two years to assemble an electorate that will vote him out-that's an achievable goal.  We can start our trial run in November.

In conclusion: VOTE.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2809 on: July 16, 2018, 03:14:40 PM »
I am sure that is why you jumped from 2012 to 2018. Sounds like an excuse one of my kids would give me. Trump was born on 3rd base and thinks he hit a triple. So do his supporters.
What excuse?  Obama probably would have won had he been eligible, with the improving economy one reason.  But he wasn't eligible, so it's irrelevant.

The poor excuse for omitting 2016 purposefully. Don't be obtuse. Speaking "of life being good" how about those human rights abuses at the border? Man I bet you love those being a Trump defender.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2810 on: July 16, 2018, 03:14:59 PM »
You forgot the 2nd part of my quote.
You mean "...and then contradicting our own intelligence sources to agree with Putin?"  Yes, if those sources had implied unfavorable things about Obama I can easily imagine him contradicting them.

Quote
I also agree with what others have said, that Trump meets the common parlance and understanding of the term treasonous. But he doesn't meet the constitutional definition of it. However it is very likely he has broken a number of federal laws involving election laws, receiving benefits from foreign nationals, and seditious conspiracy. Either way he needs to go. It's not even a partisan issue anymore. You don't want someone as president who is deferential and beholden to a foreign power, let alone a foreign power that is considered an adversary and has been shown to be interfering with our elections. It's sickening and repulsive.
To an anti-Trump partisan, I believe it is.  And when and if Trump takes actions that clearly threaten US interests, it will become more of an issue to all.  Words and body language at press conferences and photo ops, not so much.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2811 on: July 16, 2018, 03:23:33 PM »
I am sure that is why you jumped from 2012 to 2018. Sounds like an excuse one of my kids would give me. Trump was born on 3rd base and thinks he hit a triple. So do his supporters.
What excuse?  Obama probably would have won had he been eligible, with the improving economy one reason.  But he wasn't eligible, so it's irrelevant.

The poor excuse for omitting 2016 purposefully. Don't be obtuse.
Let me try again, with the quotes below for context.

Obama wasn't running in 2016.  Presumably Trump will be running in 2020.  When looking at the likelihood of presidential re-election, the state of the economy is a good indicator.  If the economy remains good, Trump is more likely to be re-elected.  If the economy goes bad, Trump is more likely to lose. With what do you disagree?

For now, unemployment is down, taxes are lower, etc., so life is good.  How sustainable that is, and over what time frame, is open to speculation (and the answers will likely govern whether Trump gets re-elected in 2020 or not).
Weird how when unemployment was down and taxes were the same plus or minus a few hundred bucks under Obama for the vast majority of income earners, life wasn't as good.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2812 on: July 16, 2018, 03:34:38 PM »
Maybe this is where we're running into misunderstanding.

I don't think that Trump committed the crime of treason as defined by the US constitution.

He absolutely committed treason by common definition of the word though:
That's a reasonable argument, and perhaps fit for election campaign rhetoric.

Just so the anti-Trump crowd doesn't get their hopes up for an impeachment based on "treason".

Sure.  As long as we can both agree that Trump's behavior is treasonous but excepted from prosecution by legal technicality, it's all good.

I guess that a key question on treason is if cyber espionage is an act of levying war against the United States. Remember, people in the USA have also been convicted of treason for participating in coal mine strikes. While the majority of cases have involved formally declared wars, this is not an absolute in the case law.

That said, Trump probably has the greatest liability through his financial transactions and ties. He will never be convicted of conspiracy (because there is no law on the books about it), but likes does have some exposure to charges of conspiracy.

All of which is functionally separate of if he has acted in an impeachable manor. If the GOP were interested in consistency, then most certainly the case would be very simple to make. As of April or May of 2016 I suspect much of the current behavior and actions would have resulted in impeachment (and should have had it happened).

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2813 on: July 16, 2018, 03:39:25 PM »
At this point, the only remaining question is whether the US President is just an idiot, or is an active Russian agent.  He's actively undermining the United States in order to advance Russian foreign policy objectives, but I suppose there's still a chance he's a doddering old fool rather than the most successful KGB spy in history.

The 3rd possibility is that he's beholden to the Russians because of loans.

Or perhaps the 4th possibility that gets discussed all the time:
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REPORTER (Jonathan Lemire from AP): A question for President Putin, thank you. Two questions for you, sir. Can you tell me what President Trump may have indicated to you about officially recognizing Crimea as part of Russia? And secondly, sir, do you -- does the Russian government have any compromising material on President Trump or his family?

PUTIN: President Trump — well, the posture of President Trump on Crimea is well known and he stands firmly by it. He continues to maintain that it was illegal to annex it. Our viewpoint is different. We held a referendum in strict compliance with the UN Charter and international legislation. For us this issue --we put [unintelligible] to this issue.

And now to the compromising material. Yeah, I did heard these rumors that we allegedly collected compromising material on Mr. Trump when he was visiting Moscow. Well, distinguished colleague, let me tell you this, when President Trump was in Moscow back then, I didn’t even know that he was in Moscow. I treat President Trump with utmost respect, but back then when he was a private individual, a businessman, nobody informed me that he was in Moscow.

Let’s take St. Petersburg economic forum, for instance. There were over 500 American businessmen — high-ranking, high-level ones. I don’t even remember the last names of each and every one. Do you think that we try to collect compromising material on each and every single one of them?

Well, it’s difficult to imagine utter nonsense on a bigger scale than this. Please disregard these issues and don’t think about this anymore again.

TRUMP: And I have to say if they had it, it would have been out long ago. And if anybody watched Peter Strzok testify over the last couple of days, and I was in Brussels watching it, it was a disgrace to the FBI. It was a disgrace to our country. And you would say, ‘That was a total witch hunt.’ Thank you very much, everybody.

Oh yeah, there's definitely some juicy kompromat out there...

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2814 on: July 16, 2018, 04:12:28 PM »
To an anti-Trump partisan, I believe it is.  And when and if Trump takes actions that clearly threaten US interests, it will become more of an issue to all. Words and body language at press conferences and photo ops, not so much.
Such as systematically describing our closest allies as foes, starting trade wars without a clearly stated goal, and then cozying up to countries with strategic interests adverse to the US... and taking their word for it that they did not interfere with the US elections despite our intelligence services saying that there is no ambiguity about that whatsoever? Are those not actions that threaten US interests? Or maybe it is just internal politics where he emboldens the racists in his base to be more overt, what since there are 'good people on both sides" and all?

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2815 on: July 16, 2018, 05:00:36 PM »
Such as systematically describing our closest allies as foes, starting trade wars without a clearly stated goal, and then cozying up to countries with strategic interests adverse to the US...
At this point, those are indistinguishable from negotiating tactics.  Different people make different assumptions about the outcomes, and thus reach different conclusions about the advisability of the current actions.  Much like some people said Bush and Obama's quantitative easing would lead to runaway inflation and was thus a terrible idea.  Well, those people were wrong.

Quote
...and taking their word for it that they did not interfere with the US elections despite our intelligence services saying that there is no ambiguity about that whatsoever? Are those not actions that threaten US interests?
Let's pretend Trump said "yes, I think Russia did do some things on social media during the US election."  What would the difference be, other than the words themselves?

Quote
Or maybe it is just internal politics where he emboldens the racists in his base to be more overt, what since there are 'good people on both sides" and all?
Of course there are good people who have different political views.  Unless one recognizes that, bipartisan progress is unlikely.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2816 on: July 16, 2018, 05:18:31 PM »
Some people really will excuse anything.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2817 on: July 16, 2018, 05:27:09 PM »
Some people really will excuse anything.
Or almost anything. :)

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2818 on: July 16, 2018, 05:33:28 PM »
why the note about Libertarian4321 in your sig line, @Kris?

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2819 on: July 16, 2018, 05:39:25 PM »
why the note about Libertarian4321 in your sig line, @Kris?

Ah. It’s a reference to a conversation between us from many months ago.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2820 on: July 16, 2018, 05:45:13 PM »
Quote
...and taking their word for it that they did not interfere with the US elections despite our intelligence services saying that there is no ambiguity about that whatsoever? Are those not actions that threaten US interests?
Let's pretend Trump said "yes, I think Russia did do some things on social media during the US election."  What would the difference be, other than the words themselves?

What does the US possibly gain by having our president stand shoulder to shoulder with Putin and say that Putin didn't do it, and that he believes that because he was forceful in his denial? Or is that a negotiating tactic?

In short, cowtowing to Putin emboldens him and gives him much, much more leeway to act with apparent impunity. Of maybe the change in words would also be marked by follow through  on the actions of congress, such as the sanctions that they want to impose, but that Trump has been stonewalling.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-puts-the-brake-on-new-russian-sanctions-reversing-haleys-announcement/2018/04/16/ac3ad4f8-417f-11e8-8569-26fda6b404c7_story.html?utm_term=.5e0d734343dd

I suppose it is too much of a coincidence that his national security advisor specifically told the Russians not to get to upset when Obama imposed them in response to the then-known level of interference because that could be addressed in Trump's term.

Trump is a master negotiator only in his own mind. He is a bully and a cheat. Or, as the well known Fortune magazine analyses his skills, as "damning":
http://fortune.com/2016/07/19/donald-trump-negotiating-the-art-of-the-deal/

Convincing people that they have been conned is much harder than conning them in the first place.

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2821 on: July 16, 2018, 06:17:46 PM »
In other news, you Murican's are complaining to the WTO about the illegal tariffs being imposed by us Canucks and the EU.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-us-slams-canada-others-in-wto-case-for-retaliating-against-trumps/

My quote of the day:

Quote
Mr. Trump’s trade chief, Robert Lighthizer, said on Monday that U.S. tariffs “are justified,” but the retaliation of other countries is “completely without justification.” The five parallel WTO complaints target Canada, the European Union, Mexico, China and Turkey.

I suppose this is opening the door for some retaliatory tariffs on the part of the US?

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2822 on: July 16, 2018, 06:34:42 PM »
Quote
...and taking their word for it that they did not interfere with the US elections despite our intelligence services saying that there is no ambiguity about that whatsoever? Are those not actions that threaten US interests?
Let's pretend Trump said "yes, I think Russia did do some things on social media during the US election."  What would the difference be, other than the words themselves?
What does the US possibly gain by having our president stand shoulder to shoulder with Putin and say that Putin didn't do it, and that he believes that because he was forceful in his denial?
Perhaps nothing.

Quote
In short, cowtowing to Putin emboldens him and gives him much, much more leeway to act with apparent impunity.
That's a prediction (for what the US could possibly lose, correct?), which may be verified or falsified by what Putin does or doesn't do in the next couple of years.  I don't think it will lead to WW III, but I could be wrong....

anisotropy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2823 on: July 16, 2018, 06:35:32 PM »
Trump still embodies everything his supporters love.

Funny how they are typically the "god and country" type who place "family first". They also tend to be the ones that keep the flags around.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2824 on: July 16, 2018, 06:43:09 PM »
Trump still embodies everything his supporters love.

Funny how they are typically the "god and country" type who place "family first". They also tend to be the ones that keep the flags around.

That's all a front. Kind of like claiming you are Christian while supporting a serial adulterer or claiming you aren't racist while supporting a racist.

Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2825 on: July 16, 2018, 07:24:41 PM »
Quote
...and taking their word for it that they did not interfere with the US elections despite our intelligence services saying that there is no ambiguity about that whatsoever? Are those not actions that threaten US interests?
Let's pretend Trump said "yes, I think Russia did do some things on social media during the US election."  What would the difference be, other than the words themselves?
What does the US possibly gain by having our president stand shoulder to shoulder with Putin and say that Putin didn't do it, and that he believes that because he was forceful in his denial?
Perhaps nothing.

Quote
In short, cowtowing to Putin emboldens him and gives him much, much more leeway to act with apparent impunity.
That's a prediction (for what the US could possibly lose, correct?), which may be verified or falsified by what Putin does or doesn't do in the next couple of years.  I don't think it will lead to WW III, but I could be wrong....
Out of curiosity, what is your assessment of the veracity of the intelligence community's assessment that Russia interfered in the US elections. This is a general question and is independent of the specific question of if there was collusion with the Trump campaign.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2826 on: July 16, 2018, 07:32:28 PM »
Out of curiosity, what is your assessment of the veracity of the intelligence community's assessment that Russia interfered in the US elections. This is a general question and is independent of the specific question of if there was collusion with the Trump campaign.
I believe Russian agents used social media in the US, primarily with the intent of fomenting strife within the US.  Plausible Russian rationale would be "the more the US is fighting internally, the less the US is likely to interfere in whatever we might want to do in the rest of the world."

Helping Trump was secondary to that primary goal.  I suspect Russia was as surprised as everyone else when Trump won.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2827 on: July 16, 2018, 07:34:29 PM »
Quote
...and taking their word for it that they did not interfere with the US elections despite our intelligence services saying that there is no ambiguity about that whatsoever? Are those not actions that threaten US interests?
Let's pretend Trump said "yes, I think Russia did do some things on social media during the US election."  What would the difference be, other than the words themselves?
What does the US possibly gain by having our president stand shoulder to shoulder with Putin and say that Putin didn't do it, and that he believes that because he was forceful in his denial?
Perhaps nothing.

Quote
In short, cowtowing to Putin emboldens him and gives him much, much more leeway to act with apparent impunity.
That's a prediction (for what the US could possibly lose, correct?), which may be verified or falsified by what Putin does or doesn't do in the next couple of years.  I don't think it will lead to WW III, but I could be wrong....


Russia not only posted on social media but hacked into state's election systems. How could you possibly dismiss that?
If Trump doesn't actively punish Putin for hacking into our election systems then he is betraying the US - actively working against the interests of the US by undermining our elections - i.e. conspiracy to commit treason.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2828 on: July 16, 2018, 07:44:37 PM »
Russia not only posted on social media but hacked into state's election systems. How could you possibly dismiss that?
If Trump doesn't actively punish Putin for hacking into our election systems then he is betraying the US - actively working against the interests of the US by undermining our elections - i.e. conspiracy to commit treason.
That Russia might cyber attack our systems when we do nothing of the sort toward theirs?  Unlikely.  Probably both countries do this, and probably something that has been ongoing for years.

Something to be aware of, but the takeaway from reports such as U.S. intel: Russia compromised seven states prior to 2016 election seems to be
Quote
"The declassified Intelligence Community Assessment of January 6, 2017, found that Russian actors did not compromise vote tallying systems. That assessment has not changed."

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2829 on: July 16, 2018, 07:47:09 PM »
Out of curiosity, what is your assessment of the veracity of the intelligence community's assessment that Russia interfered in the US elections. This is a general question and is independent of the specific question of if there was collusion with the Trump campaign.

I'm fairly certain that Trump himself doesn't distinguish between these two things. 

He's a simple man with simple instincts, and he has taught his followers to see thing through his own lens, in which all negative press coverage is basically identical "fake news".  Russians subverting democracy casts a pall over his electoral college win, so he hates it and says it didn't happen.  Stormy Daniels and Hillary Clinton are both crooked.  He can't be guilty of collusion because his hands are so big.  He's not a racist because of Benghazi.   See how easy this is?

Anything that isn't flattering to Trump must be fake, and he lumps it all together and denies everything.  There is no nuance, no recognition of valid criticisms, no distinguishing between scandals.  As a result, Russian election interference and colluding with the Russians are basically identical in his mind, and therefore the assessment of every US intelligence agency is identical to the Mueller investigation (witch hunt!).  His supporters seem to have totally bought this effort at obfuscation.

The hilarious part, to me, is that there's a very nonzero chance that on this particular example of conflating topics, they really ARE the same thing.  If the Trump campaign did conspire with the Russians to sway the election, as suggested by his RNC speech, then in this case the collusion and the interference really might be one and the same story.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2830 on: July 16, 2018, 07:55:57 PM »
Russia not only posted on social media but hacked into state's election systems. How could you possibly dismiss that?
If Trump doesn't actively punish Putin for hacking into our election systems then he is betraying the US - actively working against the interests of the US by undermining our elections - i.e. conspiracy to commit treason.
That Russia might cyber attack our systems when we do nothing of the sort toward theirs?  Unlikely.  Probably both countries do this, and probably something that has been ongoing for years.

Something to be aware of, but the takeaway from reports such as U.S. intel: Russia compromised seven states prior to 2016 election seems to be
Quote
"The declassified Intelligence Community Assessment of January 6, 2017, found that Russian actors did not compromise vote tallying systems. That assessment has not changed."

It doesn't matter if Russia didn't actually sway the vote tallying, Russia broke into the systems, and stole voter information.

MDM

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2831 on: July 16, 2018, 08:00:04 PM »
...Russia broke into the systems, and stole voter information.
Granted.

What do you think the appropriate response by Obama and Trump should have been, and how is that affected by your estimation of the cyber-spying the USA does?

anisotropy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2832 on: July 16, 2018, 08:05:22 PM »
He's a simple man with simple instincts, and he has taught his followers to see thing through his own lens, in which all negative press coverage is basically identical "fake news".  Russians subverting democracy casts a pall over his electoral college win, so he hates it and says it didn't happen.  Stormy Daniels and Hillary Clinton are both crooked.  He can't be guilty of collusion because his hands are so big.  He's not a racist because of Benghazi.   See how easy this is?


you missed "But her emails! her foundation gave away the uranium!"

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2833 on: July 16, 2018, 08:09:55 PM »
...Russia broke into the systems, and stole voter information.
Granted.

What do you think the appropriate response by Obama and Trump should have been, and how is that affected by your estimation of the cyber-spying the USA does?
Obama imposed sanctions on some Russians - which Donald Trump Jr. said would be removed - quid pro quo for election tampering by Russia.

Obama cooperated with Russia on some levels, but imposed sanctions for specific Putin misdeeds - war in Ukraine.

I'm not sure what the appropriate response should have been because it's complicated by the need to cooperate with Russia on a variety of fronts - space exploration, Israeli/Palestinian issue, the war in Syria, Iranian nuclear ambitions, a common interest to fight religious idealogical terrorism, etc.

I don't think the US undermines elections in Britain, France, etc, but I could almost forgive US cyber-spying in the phony Russian election system.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2834 on: July 16, 2018, 08:16:30 PM »
...I could almost forgive US cyber-spying in the phony Russian election system.
True! Or, why bother? Not much likelihood of having any significant impact there. ;)

bacchi

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2835 on: July 16, 2018, 08:22:39 PM »
Interesting. With the growing bipartisan flak from the Putin-Trump bromance summit, even Foxnews.com is starting to join the chorus of criticism.

Their headliner is about Mueller but, usually, there would be at least one Obama or Fusion or email server story. Currently, there are 5 more-or-less critical pieces about Trump.

DOUG SCHOEN: Putin eats Trump's lunch in Helsinki -- This is no way to win against Russia
'Not about decorum, but dignity': Cavuto says Trump should stop blaming predecessors, praising enemies
James Comey calls on 'patriots' to 'stand up and reject' Trump's behavior after Putin summit [in a non-critical story that also mentioned Coats*]
Trump faces bipartisan criticism over press conference with Putin
HALFTIME REPORT: Trump scores on his own goal**

Is the tide turning?


* 'Former FBI Director James Comey on Monday joined the long list of politicians and public figures condemning President Trump’s remarks at his news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, tweeting that the president “refused to back his own country.”'
** 'If Trump’s critics had scripted it, they could hardly have done better at showing him as the junior partner in the bilateral relationship. Putin was clearly in charge from beginning to end with Trump jumping in to blame America for problems Russia created and to denounce the same investigation that just offered conclusive proof of Putin’s wrongdoing in 2016.'

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2836 on: July 16, 2018, 09:56:30 PM »
@bacchi Yes, even Fox News is beginning to realize that 'winning' is looking pretty bleak at this point.  WooHoo, the investigation into election meddling went away, Hillary went to jail, the wall got built, and the US no longer looks at Russia as an adversary...  And that is just the first term!

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2837 on: July 17, 2018, 05:39:37 AM »
Interesting. With the growing bipartisan flak from the Putin-Trump bromance summit, even Foxnews.com is starting to join the chorus of criticism.

Their headliner is about Mueller but, usually, there would be at least one Obama or Fusion or email server story. Currently, there are 5 more-or-less critical pieces about Trump.

DOUG SCHOEN: Putin eats Trump's lunch in Helsinki -- This is no way to win against Russia
'Not about decorum, but dignity': Cavuto says Trump should stop blaming predecessors, praising enemies
James Comey calls on 'patriots' to 'stand up and reject' Trump's behavior after Putin summit [in a non-critical story that also mentioned Coats*]
Trump faces bipartisan criticism over press conference with Putin
HALFTIME REPORT: Trump scores on his own goal**

Is the tide turning?


* 'Former FBI Director James Comey on Monday joined the long list of politicians and public figures condemning President Trump’s remarks at his news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, tweeting that the president “refused to back his own country.”'
** 'If Trump’s critics had scripted it, they could hardly have done better at showing him as the junior partner in the bilateral relationship. Putin was clearly in charge from beginning to end with Trump jumping in to blame America for problems Russia created and to denounce the same investigation that just offered conclusive proof of Putin’s wrongdoing in 2016.'

Ehh, let them eat cake. They have defended this POS from day 1. I mean the writing was on the wall before he even got elected. What the hell did they think he was going to do? Put Putin in timeout? Trump loves a good ruthless dictator. He looks up to them.

Johnez

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2838 on: July 17, 2018, 05:55:29 AM »
Frankly I'm surprised the Putin romance went over as bad as it did for Trump. I figured nothing new here, most of the crap he said he's said in the past, but I guess he crossed a line somewhere in the Republican party. The only problem is there is no action to be taken here. No vote, no resolution  even. Hopefully it means he's weakened a bit and his political capital has been damaged enough to at least consider viewpoints other than what serves him and his cronies own agendas. I guess every devil has their advocate, Hannity's undying support can still be counted on...

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2839 on: July 17, 2018, 05:57:07 AM »

Certainly one theory is that the Russians have compromising material on Trump ("Kompromat") and that explains his inability to criticize Putin.  It's not the only explanation (others include he's financially dependent on Russia through his business deals and/or he simply loves a good strongman)

Assuming the kompromat angle is true, under what circumstances would Putin release such material to humiliate Trump? 
Currently I think Russia would stay the course - particularly after Trump's latest showing in Helsinki and earlier at the G7 and NATO summits.  Putin said outright he wanted Trump to win the election, and I see no reason why he wouldn't want him to gain a second term. 
But what about after the 2020 election? If Trump wins Putin could instantly light a constitutional crisis by showing the duly elected leader has been in the pocket of a foreign power for 4+ years, and all his supporters domestically had been duped. Or Putin could weaken Trump just before the election, creating outcrys that the inevitable democratic candidate won simply because s/he had zero alternatives.  .... If a Democrat wins in 2020, the kompromat on Trump would rapidly lose its value - would Putin release it?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2840 on: July 17, 2018, 06:26:42 AM »
It doesn't matter if Russia didn't actually sway the vote tallying, Russia broke into the systems, and stole voter information.
During our last federal election in Australia, the WA electoral commission lost like 3,500 Senate votes out of... I dunno, more than a million. Fell off the back of a truck or something. This would make no material difference to the end result; because of the odd system (Hare-Clark, a mutant preferential system) it'd make the difference of 1-2 of the 12 Senators elected, and those are always minor party ones who rarely even stay in their party for the whole Senate term (form their own parties, or seek a shinier career by joining one of the big parties). So essentially the 3,500 lost votes were just noise in the data of the election.

They held the entire Senate election again. Because it's not enough that the vote be honest, it must be seen to be honest. Because if people lose faith in the integrity of the system, they try to corrupt it themselves - "it's only fair" - or worse, stop participating in it. And then government loses all legitimacy, and we're open to all sorts of nasty shit.


Of course, with no independent electoral commission, decades of gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement by (semi) legal shenanigans and all that, the US is way past all that. But it's something to bear in mind.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2841 on: July 17, 2018, 06:49:51 AM »

Certainly one theory is that the Russians have compromising material on Trump ("Kompromat") and that explains his inability to criticize Putin.  It's not the only explanation (others include he's financially dependent on Russia through his business deals and/or he simply loves a good strongman)

Assuming the kompromat angle is true, under what circumstances would Putin release such material to humiliate Trump? 
Currently I think Russia would stay the course - particularly after Trump's latest showing in Helsinki and earlier at the G7 and NATO summits.  Putin said outright he wanted Trump to win the election, and I see no reason why he wouldn't want him to gain a second term. 
But what about after the 2020 election? If Trump wins Putin could instantly light a constitutional crisis by showing the duly elected leader has been in the pocket of a foreign power for 4+ years, and all his supporters domestically had been duped. Or Putin could weaken Trump just before the election, creating outcrys that the inevitable democratic candidate won simply because s/he had zero alternatives.  .... If a Democrat wins in 2020, the kompromat on Trump would rapidly lose its value - would Putin release it?

I think Russia's ultimate goal was simply to create chaos in America. And the best way to do that was to get Trump elected, the most polarizing and corrupt candidate/President in history. I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out that Russia was surprised how well it worked.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2842 on: July 17, 2018, 07:10:52 AM »

I think Russia's ultimate goal was simply to create chaos in America. And the best way to do that was to get Trump elected, the most polarizing and corrupt candidate/President in history. I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out that Russia was surprised how well it worked.

I think Russia has seen an enormous return on their relatively minor investment to disrupt and discredit our elections.  But I'm curious about what happens going forward.  If Russia does have leverage over Trump, at what point would they find it beneficial to release that?

marty998

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2843 on: July 17, 2018, 07:32:55 AM »

I think Russia's ultimate goal was simply to create chaos in America. And the best way to do that was to get Trump elected, the most polarizing and corrupt candidate/President in history. I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out that Russia was surprised how well it worked.

I think Russia has seen an enormous return on their relatively minor investment to disrupt and discredit our elections.  But I'm curious about what happens going forward.  If Russia does have leverage over Trump, at what point would they find it beneficial to release that?

Why would you ever release it? Hold it over your man and just keep extorting / peddling influence...

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2844 on: July 17, 2018, 07:37:54 AM »

I think Russia's ultimate goal was simply to create chaos in America. And the best way to do that was to get Trump elected, the most polarizing and corrupt candidate/President in history. I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out that Russia was surprised how well it worked.

I think Russia has seen an enormous return on their relatively minor investment to disrupt and discredit our elections.  But I'm curious about what happens going forward.  If Russia does have leverage over Trump, at what point would they find it beneficial to release that?

It would only be beneficial when Trump stops bending over backwards to give them everything that he can.  There has been no sign of this happening (an no reason to think it will in the future).  If Trump stops being the president, there's no real benefit to Russia to release the information.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2845 on: July 17, 2018, 07:57:28 AM »

I think Russia's ultimate goal was simply to create chaos in America. And the best way to do that was to get Trump elected, the most polarizing and corrupt candidate/President in history. I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out that Russia was surprised how well it worked.

I think Russia has seen an enormous return on their relatively minor investment to disrupt and discredit our elections.  But I'm curious about what happens going forward.  If Russia does have leverage over Trump, at what point would they find it beneficial to release that?

It would only be beneficial when Trump stops bending over backwards to give them everything that he can.  There has been no sign of this happening (an no reason to think it will in the future).  If Trump stops being the president, there's no real benefit to Russia to release the information.
...maybe?  Or maybe Putin would see this as a way of humiliating the US and further undermining people's faith in our elections, whereas Trump could no longer offer favorable treatment...  I'm sure this is the sort of thing people who study Game Theory focus on.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2846 on: July 17, 2018, 08:00:45 AM »

I think Russia's ultimate goal was simply to create chaos in America. And the best way to do that was to get Trump elected, the most polarizing and corrupt candidate/President in history. I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out that Russia was surprised how well it worked.

I think Russia has seen an enormous return on their relatively minor investment to disrupt and discredit our elections.  But I'm curious about what happens going forward.  If Russia does have leverage over Trump, at what point would they find it beneficial to release that?

At this point, half+ of the country thinks Trump is some sort of Hitler/Satan combination.  And the other half likes the guy OK, but also thinks he probably gets his jollies grabbing women and getting pissed on by Russian hookers.

What, realistically, could Russia have that would make us think WORSE of Trump?

And in full transparency, I think Trump's a total dirtbag, but he's now prevented 2 Hillary SCOTUS appointments (and potentially counting) so I'll take him.  Sorrynotsorry.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2847 on: July 17, 2018, 08:14:04 AM »
I understand wanting to use the Constitution to define countries as enemies or not, but it was written at a time when the great powers of the world were the European powers. I do not believe that any of the signers of that document could have imagined a time when the power and wealth of the US would grow so substantial that our military might would be required to save Europe in two wars and then guarantee global security.

I think they did imagine that our values might be found compelling by other more powerful and wealthier countries that were already immersed in enlightenment thought.

We have only been a Super Power for about 100 years. As such, I'd argue that all nations of the world must be classified on a spectrum from helpful to adversarial, because these attitudes matter as we build power and establish security. Russia was aligned with us as part of the Iran deal (and would be in N Korea probably). Russia is pretty clearly adversarial in Syria, and blatantly opposed to us over Ukraine. All of these attitudes matter.

And all of these interactions mean that developing a sympathetic party, perhaps even helping him win the White House, can have value to Russia in all of these theaters.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2848 on: July 17, 2018, 08:23:35 AM »

I think Russia's ultimate goal was simply to create chaos in America. And the best way to do that was to get Trump elected, the most polarizing and corrupt candidate/President in history. I wouldn't be surprised at all to find out that Russia was surprised how well it worked.

I think Russia has seen an enormous return on their relatively minor investment to disrupt and discredit our elections.  But I'm curious about what happens going forward.  If Russia does have leverage over Trump, at what point would they find it beneficial to release that?

At this point, half+ of the country thinks Trump is some sort of Hitler/Satan combination.  And the other half likes the guy OK, but also thinks he probably gets his jollies grabbing women and getting pissed on by Russian hookers.

What, realistically, could Russia have that would make us think WORSE of Trump?

And in full transparency, I think Trump's a total dirtbag, but he's now prevented 2 Hillary SCOTUS appointments (and potentially counting) so I'll take him.  Sorrynotsorry.

Interesting question. Compromising material could take one of two (not mutually exclusive) forms - it could be highly embarassing to Trump himself and/or it could be something that would make the populace more negatively of him.  Given how prideful Trump is, its entirely possible that its more of the former and less of the latter.  Of course evidence of infidelity and bizarre sex acts tops the list (something which was brought up in the Steele dossier but not verified by either Steele or others). Or it could be that he is financially broke and propped up by Russian banks, which would severely undercut the argument that what the US needs is a successful businessman and great negotiator.
In terms of what might make the populace think worse of Trump - if he had made deals to undercut the US for personal enrichment (e.g. removing sanctions or promises not to retaliate in exchange for Trump properties in Moscow or forgiveness of taxes/debt).

Not sure what you mean by 2 SCOTUS appointments, unless you are somehow considering Scalia's replacement (Garland), nominated by Obama. Given GOP control of both the hosue and senate I'm pretty confident HRC couldn't have nominated someone very far left of center.
 

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #2849 on: July 17, 2018, 08:35:59 AM »
Quote
And in full transparency, I think Trump's a total dirtbag, but he's now prevented 2 Hillary SCOTUS appointments (and potentially counting) so I'll take him.  Sorrynotsorry.

This, in a nut shell, is the whole ballgame right here.

A sizable percentage of the country is willing to forgo all democratic norms and values in order for their side to “win”. 

This person, and anyone else who thinks this way, isn’t an American, they are a Republican (or a Democrat, if you are also willing to do the same to the Republicans to win).  They hold only one primary allegiance, and it isn’t to the principles that our country was founded under.  They will happily trade away the civil rights and even the very humanity of their fellow citizens so that their tribe prospers.  They delight in cruelty and the suffering of others.  They are fine with our country being led by an obvious authoritarian to get some “wins”.  You are not an American, not in my book, and worse than the typical racist Trump supporter, because you know better, and you don’t care.

 Sorrynotsorry.