Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 154111 times)

PathtoFIRE

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1450 on: April 24, 2018, 09:53:54 AM »
Here's the original reporting on Trump's flight records

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/flight-records-illuminate-mystery-of-trump-s-moscow-nights

Here's an article from last summer detailing some of what Trump was up to in Moscow

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-13/trump-s-two-nights-of-parties-in-moscow-reverberate-years-later

Here's reporting from the BBC in which the CIA confirms the existence of compromising Trump tapes from Moscow

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38589427
Quote
Later, I used an intermediary to pass some questions to active duty CIA officers dealing with the case file - they would not speak to me directly. I got a message back that there was "more than one tape", "audio and video", on "more than one date", in "more than one place" - in the Ritz-Carlton in Moscow and also in St Petersburg - and that the material was "of a sexual nature".
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 10:04:22 AM by PathtoFIRE »

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1451 on: April 24, 2018, 09:56:01 AM »
You know if he ever resigns he will thump his chest and claim everyone is against him and he can't run a government with fake news and a conspiracy against him. He will claim his presidency was the greatest and accomplished everything it said it would and the world is a better place. That there will never be a better, greater president. All the history books should be burnt and he should be declared the first president of the USA. A year before he leaves he will have statues as big as pyramids built of him and placed in every State. The Statues will be voice activated and say NO COLLUSION, FAKE NEWS, YOU'RE FIRED, HUGE...

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1452 on: April 24, 2018, 10:25:37 AM »
You know if he ever resigns he will thump his chest and claim everyone is against him and he can't run a government with fake news and a conspiracy against him.

See, I'm kind of expecting the exact opposite.  He won't complain about the obstacles, he'll just celebrate victory.  I think he'll leave office and abandon all pretense of presidential behavior.  His whole life has been publicity-seeking unabashed self promotion "yea I fucked her, she was a dirty whore and it was awesome" before he became president, and I think he's really struggling to maintain some image of respectability in his current job.  As soon as the pressure is off, he's going right back on the Howard Stern show to brag about his sexual exploits and the size of his penis again. 

I know a handful of guys who drive big trucks and love that the President is "a man's man", by which they mean anti-feminist and unabashedly racist.  They don't want him to be polite or proper.  They celebrate the fact that he fucks porn stars (while his post-partum wife recovers from childbirth) like it's a badge of honor, the way they wish they could live if only they were rich and famous enough to get away with it.  They think missile strikes are like orgasms, and they know that "Build the Wall" is just his way of re-normalizing white supremacy.  The pee tape is fucking sweet.  Obama is a weak liberal cuck and Trump is making America great again every time he grabs a pussy or shits on a cabinet secretary or murders some brown people. 

In this world, Trump doesn't need or want monuments built to him, he's just partying his way through life without a care in the world and we're all being dragged along with the awesomeness, kicking and screaming whether we like it or not, like Trump radiates every man's fantasy of success and we all can't help but soak up the excess.  He'll finish his term, light up a cigarette, and say "yea, that was pretty fun, what's next" and then he'll go off to bang a supermodel in his private jet while Mitch McConnell fetches drinks for afterwards.

So there can be no constitutional crisis.  Of course he colluded, of course he obstructed, of course he's shady and corrupt, because that's how you "win" at life and they think Trump is a lifelong winner.  They don't care how many laws he broke, because the true exercise of power is to deliberately break laws and get away with it, because you know how to own the system.  Just like deliberately cheating on all of your wives and getting away with it, or deliberately defrauding a bank on a casino loan and getting away with it, or deliberately stealing an election and getting away with it.  See?  He just can't lose.

Aging blue-collar white boomers are nostalgic for the idealized vision of their youth, when a high school education guaranteed a factory floor job making more than median wage, brown people called you sir, and your wife always had dinner and a martini waiting for you when you got home from banging your side piece.  Liberals have ruined every single part of that sentence.  I sort of understand why they like Trump, if they think he's an antidote to the last three decades of progress.  The world is changing, and not for the better if you're in their demographic.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1453 on: April 24, 2018, 10:48:04 AM »
All good points Sol! Love this part: He'll finish his term, light up a cigarette, and say "yea, that was pretty fun, what's next" and then he'll go off to bang a supermodel in his private jet while Mitch McConnell fetches drinks for afterwards. HAHAHA!

Since being retired we have been paying more attention to politics than we ever did in our entire lives. Just amazing what Donny gets away with. It is jaw dropping and every day it is something else! Just when you think there couldn't be one more startling thing possible, it happens day after day!

I would like to know if they will find out where Cohen got the $130,000 to pay Stormy? He claims he took out a home equity loan to pay her???? Seriously! Could it be from the campaign funds? I can't wait for Mueller to have the BIG REVEAL!

thd7t

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1454 on: April 24, 2018, 11:05:23 AM »
Sol, I appreciate your analysis, but you're ignoring that Trump is a huge whiner.  He can never stop complaining.  Given time, he'll reimagine what happened, but he's going to piss and moan about it for a while.

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1455 on: April 24, 2018, 11:10:30 AM »
Yes, thd7t, he is a huge whiner. A big baby man. He can dish it out but can't take it.

doggyfizzle

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1456 on: April 24, 2018, 11:40:08 AM »
I would like to know if they will find out where Cohen got the $130,000 to pay Stormy? He claims he took out a home equity loan to pay her???? Seriously! Could it be from the campaign funds? I can't wait for Mueller to have the BIG REVEAL!

He should have kept the HELOC payout under $100k; the interest on it would still be deductible (as I think it would be grandfathered under the TCJA).  Definitely not funds used for home improvement purposes...

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1457 on: April 24, 2018, 11:54:54 AM »
I would like to know if they will find out where Cohen got the $130,000 to pay Stormy? He claims he took out a home equity loan to pay her???? Seriously! Could it be from the campaign funds? I can't wait for Mueller to have the BIG REVEAL!

He should have kept the HELOC payout under $100k; the interest on it would still be deductible (as I think it would be grandfathered under the TCJA).  Definitely not funds used for home improvement purposes...
Would it be better or worse if he had thought of the taxible implications of his payment? one one hand he could have then argued he was doing this partially to benefit himself; OTOH doing so would show a level of pre-meditation that could negate any claim that it was reactionary or to pay off someone blackmailing DJT.
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thd7t

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1458 on: April 24, 2018, 12:15:40 PM »
I would like to know if they will find out where Cohen got the $130,000 to pay Stormy? He claims he took out a home equity loan to pay her???? Seriously! Could it be from the campaign funds? I can't wait for Mueller to have the BIG REVEAL!

He should have kept the HELOC payout under $100k; the interest on it would still be deductible (as I think it would be grandfathered under the TCJA).  Definitely not funds used for home improvement purposes...
Would it be better or worse if he had thought of the taxible implications of his payment? one one hand he could have then argued he was doing this partially to benefit himself; OTOH doing so would show a level of pre-meditation that could negate any claim that it was reactionary or to pay off someone blackmailing DJT.
I think that Cohen's self-interest in this specific instance is small potatoes.  Once you're reacting to possible blackmail, you're past the point of debate of premeditation.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1459 on: April 24, 2018, 01:00:39 PM »
Does anyone else feel that they don't get enough value from their lawyer?  I don't think I've ever had one that would take out a home equity loan to pay off my secret porn star fuck buddy.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1460 on: April 24, 2018, 01:10:14 PM »
Does anyone else feel that they don't get enough value from their lawyer?  I don't think I've ever had one that would take out a home equity loan to pay off my secret porn star fuck buddy.

if you find yourself needing a defense attorney, chances are you've already messed up repeatedly.

I *do* wonder how much DJT has given to Cohen over the years in attorney-compensation. WaPo had a story detailing how Cohen first bought a condo in Trump Tower for 5.6MM and then vigorously repelled a coup to remove DJT from managing it, endearing himself to the current president.  I wonder what his ROI has been for that initial investment...
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Wexler

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1461 on: April 24, 2018, 01:24:17 PM »
You know if he ever resigns he will thump his chest and claim everyone is against him and he can't run a government with fake news and a conspiracy against him.

See, I'm kind of expecting the exact opposite.  He won't complain about the obstacles, he'll just celebrate victory.  I think he'll leave office and abandon all pretense of presidential behavior.  His whole life has been publicity-seeking unabashed self promotion "yea I fucked her, she was a dirty whore and it was awesome" before he became president, and I think he's really struggling to maintain some image of respectability in his current job.  As soon as the pressure is off, he's going right back on the Howard Stern show to brag about his sexual exploits and the size of his penis again. 

I know a handful of guys who drive big trucks and love that the President is "a man's man", by which they mean anti-feminist and unabashedly racist.  They don't want him to be polite or proper.  They celebrate the fact that he fucks porn stars (while his post-partum wife recovers from childbirth) like it's a badge of honor, the way they wish they could live if only they were rich and famous enough to get away with it.  They think missile strikes are like orgasms, and they know that "Build the Wall" is just his way of re-normalizing white supremacy.  The pee tape is fucking sweet.  Obama is a weak liberal cuck and Trump is making America great again every time he grabs a pussy or shits on a cabinet secretary or murders some brown people. 

In this world, Trump doesn't need or want monuments built to him, he's just partying his way through life without a care in the world and we're all being dragged along with the awesomeness, kicking and screaming whether we like it or not, like Trump radiates every man's fantasy of success and we all can't help but soak up the excess.  He'll finish his term, light up a cigarette, and say "yea, that was pretty fun, what's next" and then he'll go off to bang a supermodel in his private jet while Mitch McConnell fetches drinks for afterwards.

So there can be no constitutional crisis.  Of course he colluded, of course he obstructed, of course he's shady and corrupt, because that's how you "win" at life and they think Trump is a lifelong winner.  They don't care how many laws he broke, because the true exercise of power is to deliberately break laws and get away with it, because you know how to own the system.  Just like deliberately cheating on all of your wives and getting away with it, or deliberately defrauding a bank on a casino loan and getting away with it, or deliberately stealing an election and getting away with it.  See?  He just can't lose.

Aging blue-collar white boomers are nostalgic for the idealized vision of their youth, when a high school education guaranteed a factory floor job making more than median wage, brown people called you sir, and your wife always had dinner and a martini waiting for you when you got home from banging your side piece.  Liberals have ruined every single part of that sentence.  I sort of understand why they like Trump, if they think he's an antidote to the last three decades of progress.  The world is changing, and not for the better if you're in their demographic.

Every word of this is truth.  What a mistake it was during the campaign to appeal to decency and honor to discredit Trump.  30% of our population is made up of unrepentant assholes who think Might Makes Right, who applaud his lack of decency and honor, and who think voting for Trump will somehow transfer his orangey glow of success to them.  Barely a cursory review of his dealings should have revealed that Trump is a Shit Midas and that everything he touches withers and dies under the excrement.   Only Trump himself escapes.  I guess Manfort, Flynn, Gates, etc. thought they'd be different. 

 

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1462 on: April 24, 2018, 01:25:15 PM »
I want to know what the Cohen and Hannity connection is!

caracarn

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1463 on: April 24, 2018, 01:39:19 PM »
I wonder if that alone would cause him to take his ball and go home (i.e. resign, declaring victory and dumping everything onto Pence).
Oh, to dare to dream.

jrhampt

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1464 on: April 24, 2018, 02:20:33 PM »
I want to know what the Cohen and Hannity connection is!

Me too!!!

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1465 on: April 24, 2018, 02:29:06 PM »
I want to know what the Cohen and Hannity connection is!

Me too!!!

Early reporting suggests Hannity was searching for HUD loans for real estate projects, and needed some help figuring out how to be poor enough on paper to qualify.  He was looking for government guarantees of his mortgage loans, which he got through a series of shell corporations which shielded is identity as one of the richest personalities on television.  The press is calling him a welfare queen.

He probably gets and ACA subsidy, too.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 03:44:28 PM by sol »

Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1466 on: April 24, 2018, 02:49:54 PM »
How could Hannity qualify? Can anyone get a HUD loan?


nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1467 on: April 24, 2018, 03:12:41 PM »
I want to know what the Cohen and Hannity connection is!

Me too!!!

Early reporting suggests Hannity was searching for HUD loans for real estate projects, and needed some help figuring out how to be poor enough on paper to qualify.  He probably gets and ACA subsidy, too.

This is a giant dumpster-fire.
In the end should we be surprised that many of those who gave their most full-throated endorsement behind a candidate with zero political experience had or hoped to personally benefit his victory?
"follow the money..." - but in reverse.
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sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1468 on: April 24, 2018, 03:28:34 PM »
should we be surprised that many of those who gave their most full-throated endorsement behind a candidate with zero political experience had or hoped to personally benefit his victory?

Hannity is a special case.  Yes, he vociferously condemned the raid on Cohen's office and said things like "who knows where this witch hunt will lead?" without disclosing that it was likely to lead directly to himself, due to unreported conflicts of interest with the subject of his own reporting, a man who appeared on his show 16 times.

But because it's Hannity, he does this sort of thing with everything. 

It's not any different than Scott Pruit at EPA giving agency leadership roles to the energy lobbyist who gave him his first job, or the banker who gave him his mortgage.  It's swampish cronyism at it's worst.  Hannity is right in thick of it, but didn't we already know that he and Trump are old buds?  There was never any pretense of objectivity in Hannity's show, IMO, despite what your grandpa thinks.

Hannity took government welfare while decrying government welfare.  It's the same game Trump has played with the Presidency, growing rich off of the very things he claims to hate.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 03:47:35 PM by sol »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1469 on: April 24, 2018, 05:06:00 PM »
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/flight-records-contradict-trump-pee-tape-whereabouts_us_5ade5610e4b036e7aeb59162

To be fair . . . with most people I'd say that this is a smoking gun.  With Trump though?  The guy lies all the time.  He lies reflexively, about stuff that does and doesn't matter.  Just catching him in a lie doesn't really mean anything.  I've come to suspect that this is a symptom of some sort of mental disease/degradation rather than cold calculated political manipulation . . . but I guess history will determine which of the two it is.


Nothing says it can't be both.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1470 on: April 24, 2018, 07:57:43 PM »
It has occurred to me that the real danger of the DJT presidency isn't Trump himself, nor what he might do while in office

It's the potential of who could follow.

I'm convinced that Trump is in it solely for his own sake, and has said and done whatever he wants to get him there. He's switched parties, switched moral positions, burned friends and befriended evil men.  But it's all just to satisfy his own ego and enrich himself.

The real danger lies in a yet unknown candidate with more nefarious motives. One that actually wants to wage war or destroy a group or something even worse. Trump started the 'birther' movement because it put him on TV and caused racists fawn over him - but in doing so he ensured that facts don't matter, particularly against a political foe (a strategy he's continued to use).  By not releasing his tax returns or divesting himself of his businesses in any meaningful manner he's opened the door for current and future enrichment. He appointed both his children and non-experienced supporters to the highest levels of government, so nepotism is now acceptable, patrons can reap the spoils and performance is not important. He's made calling up dictators via private channels a 'normal' behavior - so in the future who knows where these clandestine relationships might go.

DJT has done all of these things, but if there's a silver lining its that the outfall has been limited by his own vanity and greed. He's been largely too chaotic and unfocused to really accomplish much.

There's another historical parallel I keep coming back to.  The French king Louis XIII was by all accounts a vain, mostly incompetent and relatively weak King that fought the entrenched nobility in France and burned the fragile alliances France had with Spain. Aided by his advisor Cardinal Richelieu the king's power increased dramatically, but he spent so much time bickering and fighting with just about everyone that he accomplished little.
But his reign opened the door to Louis XIV ("the Sun King") - he who built Versailles, believed himself to be a divine ruler and went to war (multiple long & bloody wars) over perceived slights and the notion that he was infallible. Louis XIV defined 'absolutism'.

I don't know if something similar will come to pass, but I now worry that it could.
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Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1471 on: April 24, 2018, 11:21:48 PM »
It has occurred to me that the real danger of the DJT presidency isn't Trump himself, nor what he might do while in office

It's the potential of who could follow.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1472 on: April 25, 2018, 07:41:15 AM »
It has occurred to me that the real danger of the DJT presidency isn't Trump himself, nor what he might do while in office

It's the potential of who could follow.

I'm listening to an interesting EconTalk episode with the author of Suicide of the West, Jonah Goldberg.  The full title is Suicide of the West: How the Rebirth of Tribalism, Populism, Nationalism, and Identity Politics is Destroying American Democracy.  I won't try to summarize since there are so many good points and perspectives, but here is an example of the narrative that the author presents:

Quote
My argument begins with some assertions. Capitalism is unnatural. Democracy is unnatural. Human rights are unnatural. The world we live in today is unnatural, and we stumbled into it more or less by accident. The natural state of mankind is grinding poverty punctuated by horrific violence, terminating with an early death. It was like this for a very, very long time.

Quote
the Roman philosopher Horus has this line where he says, 'You can chase nature out with a pitchfork, but it always comes running back in.' And, so, part of my argument is that human nature is always with us. ... All you can do is channel and harness human nature towards productive ends as best you can. And when you don't do that, human nature will assert itself.  And I think of this in terms of corruption: That, just as if you don't maintain their upkeep--a car, a boat, or a house--the Second Law of Thermodynamics or entropy or just rust will--you know, rust never sleeps.  Eventually, nature reclaims everything. And that's true of civilizations, too. And if we don't civilize people to understand this distinction between the micro- and the macro-cosm, what inevitably happens is that the logic of the microcosm, the desire to live tribally which we're all born with, starts to infect politics. And if you are not on guard for it, it can swamp politics. And this is why I would argue that virtually every form of authoritarianism, totalitarianism--whether you want to call it right-wing or left-wing--doesn't really matter to me any more. They are all reactionary. Because they are all trying to restore that tribal sense of social solidarity--whether, you know, it's a monarchy or treating the leader of the country as the father of the country or the Fuehrer or whatever you want to call it. Or whether you are just saying that the entire society is just one family. Whether it's nationalism, or socialism, or populism--all of these things are basically the reassertion of human nature, which says: I don't like your artificial constraints on my human desires and my desire for my group to be victorious. And that is the fundamental form of human corruption.

So yeah, it may not be Trump that does in America, instead he may be setting the stage for a future wave of politicians that run on a populist 'Humanity first' platform.  As ridiculous as it once might have sounded, I can see a Pruitt-like politician whipping up the downtrodden masses with "why artificially tax and constrain ourselves when Humans deserve their higher quality of life (for a little while).  Why not remove more taxes, regulations, and ignore all externalities?!"  Well, the politician will probably sell it better than that... 

And in one last giant burp of CO2, reaping the glory of cheap (maybe even subsidized) energy, humanity catapults itself (faster than predicted) over the point of no return.
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1473 on: April 25, 2018, 03:54:08 PM »
I agree.   The big problem of Trump is that he's so radically lowered the bar for behaviour in the political classes.   He's normalized behaviours and attitudes that would previously have been completely unacceptable.   Our leaders should be setting a higher standard, not a lower one.


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zoltani

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1474 on: April 25, 2018, 04:36:19 PM »
I agree.   The big problem of Trump is that he's so radically lowered the bar for behaviour in the political classes.   He's normalized behaviours and attitudes that would previously have been completely unacceptable.   Our leaders should be setting a higher standard, not a lower one.

As nereo pointed out, I am more worried about what will come after trump. Someone could come along and promise to deliver us from this evil but in reality they will be the evil. It would be VERY easy to trick the populace right now as the majority are, in my opinion, in a state of ressentiment.

"Ressentiment is a reassignment of the pain that accompanies a sense of one's own inferiority/failure onto an external scapegoat. The ego creates the illusion of an enemy, a cause that can be "blamed" for one's own inferiority/failure. Thus, one was thwarted not by a failure in oneself, but rather by an external "evil."

Ressentiment comes from reactiveness: the weaker someone is, the less their capability to suppress reaction. According to Nietzsche, the more a person is active, strong-willed, and dynamic, the less place and time is left for contemplating all that is done to them, and their reactions (like imagining they are actually better) become less compulsive. The reaction of a strong-willed person, when it happens, is ideally a short action: it is not a prolonged filling of their intellect."

The majority of the US is in a reactionary state (see women's march, march for science, march for our lives, BLM, antifa, etc etc). In this state it is so easy to dupe the populace, say what they want to hear, bait and switch.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1475 on: April 26, 2018, 01:38:25 AM »
The majority of the US is in a reactionary state (see women's march, march for science, march for our lives, BLM, antifa, etc etc). In this state it is so easy to dupe the populace, say what they want to hear, bait and switch.
Some of these things are not like the others.  Encouraging women to become involved in main stream politics, standing for office and supporting women candidates, is a positive reaction to a perceived problem and has nothing to do with political deception.
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Roadrunner53

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1476 on: April 26, 2018, 05:07:51 AM »
Is Pruitt getting investigated for the $42,000 sound proof phone booth? Doesn't everyone need one?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1477 on: April 26, 2018, 06:54:43 AM »
Is Pruitt getting investigated for the $42,000 sound proof phone booth? Doesn't everyone need one?

He is the subject of at least 10 investigations.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1478 on: April 26, 2018, 06:58:08 AM »
It is about time Kanye West gets a White House appointment. What do you all think that might be? Maybe he can replace Huckasanders and rap out the answers to the questions.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1479 on: April 26, 2018, 07:32:26 AM »
It is about time Kanye West gets a White House appointment. What do you all think that might be? Maybe he can replace Huckasanders and rap out the answers to the questions.

I'm thinking VA, since Ronny Jackson just withdrew.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1480 on: April 26, 2018, 07:58:35 AM »
I don't understand, I thought Trump only hired the best and brightest?
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1481 on: April 26, 2018, 08:30:39 AM »
I don't understand, I thought Trump only hired the best and brightest?
While it can be fun to joke, I'm getting very pissed off at the downstream effects of nominating people who never should have been considered in the first place. The VA is one of the largest government agencies, and it needs some serious help. NOw it has to sit in limbo even longer.  Then we've got all these agencies which are being led by people who have no exerpience in the matter.
in all cases the ones that suffer the most are the constituents they are supposed to serve.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1482 on: April 26, 2018, 09:53:53 AM »
It has occurred to me that the real danger of the DJT presidency isn't Trump himself, nor what he might do while in office

It's the potential of who could follow.
Ah, only now do you finally start to understand. Your compatriots have 6 years to catch up.
Oh, I think a little more than half the country have always understood that (not sure exactly how many voted the other way).  Anytime anyone wants to discuss this sideshow circus freak presidency with me we always delve into the shifting of what is considered acceptable.  I am already seeing it EVERYWHERE with the local campaign mailings as our local state primary approaches.  Cards with heads of the opposing candidates attached to a dancing monkey explaining why I should not vote for him.  Cards extolling the hard line virtues of hating this group (usually illegal immigrants), how long their NRA membership is etc.  My wife and I are using them as easy identifiers of who not to vote for, and it drives us further away from the freak's party, of which we are a part. 

I am however curious about how it will all move.  I like to think enough of us are intelligent enough to see the train wreck, but then again I thought that in November of 2016.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1483 on: April 26, 2018, 10:01:40 AM »
every society's populace thinks they are intelligent enough to avoid political train wrecks. Yet they seem to still happen across every continent and in most democracies. "eternal vigilance..." ... and all that.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1484 on: April 26, 2018, 10:04:49 AM »
The fundamental problem with democracy is that it relies on people being smart enough and well enough informed to select a good government to work.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1485 on: April 26, 2018, 10:32:13 AM »
The fundamental problem with democracy is that it relies on people being smart enough and well enough informed to select a good government to work.

And the problem with that is everyone thinks, like you, that they are those two things.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1486 on: April 26, 2018, 02:30:03 PM »
The majority of the US is in a reactionary state (see women's march, march for science, march for our lives, BLM, antifa, etc etc). In this state it is so easy to dupe the populace, say what they want to hear, bait and switch.
Some of these things are not like the others.  Encouraging women to become involved in main stream politics, standing for office and supporting women candidates, is a positive reaction to a perceived problem and has nothing to do with political deception.

"Women’s March is committed to dismantling systems of oppression through nonviolent resistance and building inclusive structures guided by self-determination, dignity and respect."

Still reactionary, and still prime to be deceived and led down a dangerous road. A cursory study on past societies that tried "dismantling systems of oppression" and see how that turned out for them. It is always non-violent, until it isn't. Once you classify someone as an oppressor, turn them into the other, it is easy to cast them away and not give a shit what happens to them.

I really think that we are so much worse off than in the past, and it is not because there is more oppression than in the past. We are now becoming more tribal, self segregating, and self policing. I am of the opinion that the thought police have been running rampant these days. No it is not an external force, it is in your head. It's that voice that tells you not to think or say that certain "bad" or "immoral" thought.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1487 on: April 26, 2018, 02:37:16 PM »
You know if he ever resigns he will thump his chest and claim everyone is against him and he can't run a government with fake news and a conspiracy against him.

See, I'm kind of expecting the exact opposite.  He won't complain about the obstacles, he'll just celebrate victory.  I think he'll leave office and abandon all pretense of presidential behavior.  His whole life has been publicity-seeking unabashed self promotion "yea I fucked her, she was a dirty whore and it was awesome" before he became president, and I think he's really struggling to maintain some image of respectability in his current job.  As soon as the pressure is off, he's going right back on the Howard Stern show to brag about his sexual exploits and the size of his penis again. 

I know a handful of guys who drive big trucks and love that the President is "a man's man", by which they mean anti-feminist and unabashedly racist.  They don't want him to be polite or proper.  They celebrate the fact that he fucks porn stars (while his post-partum wife recovers from childbirth) like it's a badge of honor, the way they wish they could live if only they were rich and famous enough to get away with it.  They think missile strikes are like orgasms, and they know that "Build the Wall" is just his way of re-normalizing white supremacy.  The pee tape is fucking sweet.  Obama is a weak liberal cuck and Trump is making America great again every time he grabs a pussy or shits on a cabinet secretary or murders some brown people. 

In this world, Trump doesn't need or want monuments built to him, he's just partying his way through life without a care in the world and we're all being dragged along with the awesomeness, kicking and screaming whether we like it or not, like Trump radiates every man's fantasy of success and we all can't help but soak up the excess.  He'll finish his term, light up a cigarette, and say "yea, that was pretty fun, what's next" and then he'll go off to bang a supermodel in his private jet while Mitch McConnell fetches drinks for afterwards.

So there can be no constitutional crisis.  Of course he colluded, of course he obstructed, of course he's shady and corrupt, because that's how you "win" at life and they think Trump is a lifelong winner.  They don't care how many laws he broke, because the true exercise of power is to deliberately break laws and get away with it, because you know how to own the system.  Just like deliberately cheating on all of your wives and getting away with it, or deliberately defrauding a bank on a casino loan and getting away with it, or deliberately stealing an election and getting away with it.  See?  He just can't lose.

Aging blue-collar white boomers are nostalgic for the idealized vision of their youth, when a high school education guaranteed a factory floor job making more than median wage, brown people called you sir, and your wife always had dinner and a martini waiting for you when you got home from banging your side piece.  Liberals have ruined every single part of that sentence.  I sort of understand why they like Trump, if they think he's an antidote to the last three decades of progress.  The world is changing, and not for the better if you're in their demographic.


Sorry for catching up with this late, but yeah, completely true.

I know a few people who think just like these truck drivers - to the T.  I have distanced myself from them and actually try to avoid dealing with them altogether. I can't stand the "Bro" mentality they have and Trump being in power has made it even easier for them to show it off.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1488 on: April 26, 2018, 03:57:21 PM »
The majority of the US is in a reactionary state (see women's march, march for science, march for our lives, BLM, antifa, etc etc). In this state it is so easy to dupe the populace, say what they want to hear, bait and switch.
Some of these things are not like the others.  Encouraging women to become involved in main stream politics, standing for office and supporting women candidates, is a positive reaction to a perceived problem and has nothing to do with political deception.

"Women’s March is committed to dismantling systems of oppression through nonviolent resistance and building inclusive structures guided by self-determination, dignity and respect."

Still reactionary, and still prime to be deceived and led down a dangerous road. A cursory study on past societies that tried "dismantling systems of oppression" and see how that turned out for them. It is always non-violent, until it isn't. Once you classify someone as an oppressor, turn them into the other, it is easy to cast them away and not give a shit what happens to them.

I really think that we are so much worse off than in the past, and it is not because there is more oppression than in the past. We are now becoming more tribal, self segregating, and self policing. I am of the opinion that the thought police have been running rampant these days. No it is not an external force, it is in your head. It's that voice that tells you not to think or say that certain "bad" or "immoral" thought.

Things are better now than they ever have been.  Go ask a woman or a minority if they think that things used to be better.

Look-we all have to learn new stuff. I'm still learning how to address trans people. Sometimes I get it wrong.  But I haven't been arrested by the thought police, and complaining about the thought police seems kinda whiny.  Who cares if the millennial in your office doesn't think you are woke.  Getting called out for being racist/sexist is not a grievance that is worth lining up against the actual oppression of the past. 




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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1489 on: April 26, 2018, 04:06:28 PM »

I really think that we are so much worse off than in the past, and it is not because there is more oppression than in the past. We are now becoming more tribal, self segregating, and self policing. I am of the opinion that the thought police have been running rampant these days. No it is not an external force, it is in your head. It's that voice that tells you not to think or say that certain "bad" or "immoral" thought.

I'm curious why you think things are so much worse now than in the past.  From my perspective there isn't another decade in history where I think 'we' (those of us in developed nations) have had it better off.

As for external voices (I'm asuming you mean 'other people' and not an alternate personality?) telling you not to say bad or immoral things, how has is this different from other points in history and why do you consider it a bad thing?
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1490 on: April 26, 2018, 04:36:25 PM »

I really think that we are so much worse off than in the past, and it is not because there is more oppression than in the past. We are now becoming more tribal, self segregating, and self policing. I am of the opinion that the thought police have been running rampant these days. No it is not an external force, it is in your head. It's that voice that tells you not to think or say that certain "bad" or "immoral" thought.

I'm curious why you think things are so much worse now than in the past.  From my perspective there isn't another decade in history where I think 'we' (those of us in developed nations) have had it better off.

As for external voices (I'm asuming you mean 'other people' and not an alternate personality?) telling you not to say bad or immoral things, how has is this different from other points in history and why do you consider it a bad thing?

I certainly think that we have a better standard of living than the past and less crime too. It's just as i said, i think we are worse off because now we are self segregating into identity groups, and I don't personally think that can lead anywhere good. The narrative of oppressor/oppressed can be and has been used in the past to justify great atrocities. Some say we know better this time, yeah right.

I wasn't talking about external forces, I am talking about the narrative in your own head. We start to self police and stop voicing our opinions or having ideas that go against the group think narrative. That's one thing that most people get wrong about 1984, the thought police are not an actual force, it's something inside you. It is ideological self suppression.

Just try and have a conversation with someone possessed by the oppressor/oppressed ideology. You can't because you will be labeled a racist, misogynist, mansplainer, privileged, and so on, people will shut down the conversation. I opposed letting girls into the boy scouts and was having a debate with a friend. She said it was good for girls because historically girls have been oppressed, and at least I can agree that women are oppressed. I said I did not agree with that and she shut down the conversation stating she can't continue it if I don't admit that women are oppressed, which had nothing to do with the topic at hand. Another example is when a black man is not allowed to have an opinion that he "shouldn't" have, such as kanye liking trump, blacks are supposed to be democrats don't you know.

So being woke is actually being more close minded and less able to think for yourself?
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1491 on: April 27, 2018, 02:55:46 AM »
She said it was good for girls because historically girls have been oppressed, and at least I can agree that women are oppressed. I said I did not agree with that
I can see why that would shut down a conversation.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1493 on: April 27, 2018, 05:15:49 AM »
I opposed letting girls into the boy scouts....
Quote
So being woke is actually being more close minded and less able to think for yourself?

Seems you are guilty of your own words. Scouting actually provides a great example, demonstrating historical oppression of women. But to understand that, you really need to understand the entire history of scouting (Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts). No sense in going into it here. You can have your own opinion, but you can't have your own facts. If someone told me they don't believe women were oppressed especially when discussing scouting, I would likely end the conversation as well.

For the record the major reason Boy Scouts is letting girls join is because they are suffering from a declining participation rate. Truthfully, I think they should do what other countries have done, combine the two. Our troop has some fantastic female leaders.
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1494 on: April 27, 2018, 05:29:18 AM »
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1495 on: April 27, 2018, 07:47:54 AM »

I really think that we are so much worse off than in the past, and it is not because there is more oppression than in the past. We are now becoming more tribal, self segregating, and self policing. I am of the opinion that the thought police have been running rampant these days. No it is not an external force, it is in your head. It's that voice that tells you not to think or say that certain "bad" or "immoral" thought.

I'm curious why you think things are so much worse now than in the past.  From my perspective there isn't another decade in history where I think 'we' (those of us in developed nations) have had it better off.

As for external voices (I'm asuming you mean 'other people' and not an alternate personality?) telling you not to say bad or immoral things, how has is this different from other points in history and why do you consider it a bad thing?

I certainly think that we have a better standard of living than the past and less crime too. It's just as i said, i think we are worse off because now we are self segregating into identity groups, and I don't personally think that can lead anywhere good. The narrative of oppressor/oppressed can be and has been used in the past to justify great atrocities. Some say we know better this time, yeah right.

Can you please elaborate a bit on these thoughts?  Specifically:
- When has simply being aware and mindful of existing oppression (and the people who are oppressed) ever been used to justify a great atrocity?  I can think of many things that have come out of this (women's rights, an end to slavery, gay rights, transgender rights, etc.) but not too many atrocities.
- In what way are you seeing people self-segregate?  The group of people I work with daily is quite diverse culturally, ethnically, religiously, and in sexual orientation.  The same with my close group of friends.  In fact, the city I live in is incredibly diverse.


Just try and have a conversation with someone possessed by the oppressor/oppressed ideology. You can't because you will be labeled a racist, misogynist, mansplainer, privileged, and so on, people will shut down the conversation.

I'm not sure what the oppressor/opressed ideology that you're referring to means exactly.  I've had many conversations with a wide variety of people and never been labeled a racist, misogynist, or mansplainer.  If this is happening often to you, maybe it's your approach that is leading all these people to react that way to what you say.  I do recognize that as a straight white middle-class guy I am privileged in many ways - not because people told me so . . . but because it's self-evident from research done on wages, hiring practices, world average wages/living standards, etc.


I opposed letting girls into the boy scouts and was having a debate with a friend. She said it was good for girls because historically girls have been oppressed, and at least I can agree that women are oppressed. I said I did not agree with that and she shut down the conversation stating she can't continue it if I don't admit that women are oppressed, which had nothing to do with the topic at hand.

While things are certainly much better than they were in the 60s, which was still better than things were in the 20s, it's very evident that women are not currently treated equally as men in the United States:
- How many women have been president?  How many men?
- What percentage of people in congress are women?  What percentage of people in the country are women?
- Men are given full autonomy over their bodies in all situations.  Are women?
- How often are women raped in comparison to men?
- Do women make the same amount as men when doing the same job?

It's difficult for many to look at the answers to the above questions and then argue that they're all just a coincidence.  It seems more likely that there's some fundamental disparity still going on.


Another example is when a black man is not allowed to have an opinion that he "shouldn't" have, such as kanye liking trump, blacks are supposed to be democrats don't you know.

So, to show how black men are not allowed to have opinions that they shouldn't . . . you give an example of a black man who has an opinion that (you allege) he shouldn't?  :P  Can you show an actual example of what you're talking about here?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1496 on: April 27, 2018, 09:25:28 AM »
I'm a woman, who has entered her fifth decade. I grew up in an era, where it was totally acceptable for say the high school math teacher to announce to the class that women are worse than men at math. This same teacher, when my sister was applying to a competitive school, refused to write her a recommendation (you needed one each for math, science, and English), not because of her work, but because as a female he didn't want her to go to his alma mater (she withdrew her application). If you worked at a restaurant, it was common for us girls to share war stories you had about treatment, and which places were particularly bad to avoid, or how to avoid attracting notice. For example my SIL worked at a restaurant where the boss's son hit on her, told her to stay after hours so he could introduce her to "Neil and Bob". She was still in HS and it traumatized her, and so left within the week. It was just the way it was.
I could also tell a story how I was terminated from my first serious job after graduate school, because I got pregnant, and after I returned to work, intended to breastfeed. I didn't sue, I moved on because who's going to fight city hall? Not me.
If we are talking about thought police, I'm glad these kind of comments and behavior are called out. It's beneficial for society in the long run, if everyone has equal rights.  So Zoltani, if you didn't agree with the statement that women as a whole have been oppressed, yeah, it would be hard to find common ground. How do you explain the fact that Trump got elected even though he bragged about assaulting women? Heck Roy Moore was elected to multiple public offices, even though the whole town knew he preyed on teen girls! It was only when it hit the national stage, was there any fuss about it. Can you imagine the converse (a female politician being involved in similar scandals?) and what the response would be?
« Last Edit: April 27, 2018, 09:36:54 AM by partgypsy »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1497 on: April 27, 2018, 09:34:06 AM »

I really think that we are so much worse off than in the past, and it is not because there is more oppression than in the past. We are now becoming more tribal, self segregating, and self policing. I am of the opinion that the thought police have been running rampant these days. No it is not an external force, it is in your head. It's that voice that tells you not to think or say that certain "bad" or "immoral" thought.

I'm curious why you think things are so much worse now than in the past.  From my perspective there isn't another decade in history where I think 'we' (those of us in developed nations) have had it better off.

As for external voices (I'm asuming you mean 'other people' and not an alternate personality?) telling you not to say bad or immoral things, how has is this different from other points in history and why do you consider it a bad thing?

I certainly think that we have a better standard of living than the past and less crime too. It's just as i said, i think we are worse off because now we are self segregating into identity groups, and I don't personally think that can lead anywhere good. The narrative of oppressor/oppressed can be and has been used in the past to justify great atrocities. Some say we know better this time, yeah right.

I wasn't talking about external forces, I am talking about the narrative in your own head. We start to self police and stop voicing our opinions or having ideas that go against the group think narrative. That's one thing that most people get wrong about 1984, the thought police are not an actual force, it's something inside you. It is ideological self suppression.

Just try and have a conversation with someone possessed by the oppressor/oppressed ideology. You can't because you will be labeled a racist, misogynist, mansplainer, privileged, and so on, people will shut down the conversation. I opposed letting girls into the boy scouts and was having a debate with a friend. She said it was good for girls because historically girls have been oppressed, and at least I can agree that women are oppressed. I said I did not agree with that and she shut down the conversation stating she can't continue it if I don't admit that women are oppressed, which had nothing to do with the topic at hand. Another example is when a black man is not allowed to have an opinion that he "shouldn't" have, such as kanye liking trump, blacks are supposed to be democrats don't you know.

So being woke is actually being more close minded and less able to think for yourself?

At first I read this as "at least you agreed with that", but I seem to have misread. To clarify - you are saying that you do not agree that women are oppressed?

And to further clarify, is your stance that women are not currently oppressed or were never oppressed?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1498 on: April 27, 2018, 09:41:35 AM »
I'm a woman, who has entered her fifth decade. I grew up in an era, where it was totally acceptable for say the high school math teacher to announce to the class that women are worse than men at math. This same teacher, when my sister was applying to a competitive school, refused to write her a recommendation (you needed one each for math, science, and English), not because of her work, but because as a female he didn't want her to go to his alma mater (she withdrew her application). If you worked at a restaurant, it was common for us girls to share war stories you had about treatment, and which places were particularly bad to avoid, or how to avoid attracting notice. For example my SIL worked at a restaurant where the boss's son hit on her, told her to stay after hours so he could introduce her to "Neil and Bob". She was still in HS and it traumatized her, and so left within the week. It was just the way it was.
I could also tell a story how I was terminated from my first serious job after graduate school, because I got pregnant, and after I returned to work, intended to breastfeed. I didn't sue, I moved on because who's going to fight city hall? Not me.
If we are talking about thought police, I'm glad these kind of comments and behavior are called out. It's beneficial for society in the long run, if everyone has equal rights.  So Zoltani, if you didn't agree with the statement that women as a whole have been oppressed, yeah, it would be hard to find common ground. How do you explain the fact that Trump got elected even though he bragged about assaulting women? Heck Roy Moore was elected to multiple public offices, even though the whole town knew he preyed on teen girls! It was only when it hit the national stage, was there any fuss about it. Can you imagine the converse (a female politician being involved in similar scandals?) and what the response would be?
This and 100 million variants of it. Part of the impact of a Trump presidency has been re-normalization of some of it. The needle has been moving forward over time, but that trajectory is not guaranteed.

And just to beat this into the ground, this is worth a read:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/opinion/when-misogynists-become-terrorists.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur
« Last Edit: April 27, 2018, 10:00:58 AM by Glenstache »
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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #1499 on: April 27, 2018, 10:50:27 AM »
Another example is when a black man is not allowed to have an opinion that he "shouldn't" have, such as kanye liking trump, blacks are supposed to be democrats don't you know.

So, to show how black men are not allowed to have opinions that they shouldn't . . . you give an example of a black man who has an opinion that (you allege) he shouldn't?  :P  Can you show an actual example of what you're talking about here?

Maybe Zoltani can elaborate, but black conservatives being ostracized by other blacks and those on the left is absolutely an issue. Candace Owens as an example

If you listen to Thomas Sowell, Larry Elder, etc. they all have similar stories.