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Other => Off Topic => Topic started by: Leisured on October 17, 2020, 11:17:15 PM

Title: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: Leisured on October 17, 2020, 11:17:15 PM
About 30 years ago there were elections in Britain where Tories (conservatives) did better than predicted by opinion polls. It seemed that some people did not want to admit to voting Conservative, and told pollsters they would vote for another party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor

Could this happen in the US? I am Australian, so must rely on Americans to judge. Are there some people who intend to vote for Trump but do not want to admit it?

Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: terran on October 18, 2020, 08:17:32 AM
I don't know if it's true or not, but that's one of the explanations that's been floated for the 2016 upset. "Silent majority" and all that. They sure don't seem shy to me though. More like the "loud minority."
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on October 18, 2020, 02:39:52 PM
About 30 years ago there were elections in Britain where Tories (conservatives) did better than predicted by opinion polls. It seemed that some people did not want to admit to voting Conservative, and told pollsters they would vote for another party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor

Could this happen in the US? I am Australian, so must rely on Americans to judge. Are there some people who intend to vote for Trump but do not want to admit it?


Absolutely yes.

It simply isn't possible that every person who intends to vote for Trump will admit it.

Many voters choose their candidate based merely on their likability.

Trump is not a likable candidate; as such he engenders lots of  animus that some of his supporters don't want to be subjected to so they won't reveal they're voting for him.




 
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: katsiki on October 18, 2020, 02:43:01 PM
Many voters choose their candidate based merely on their likability.

Or dislike of the opposing candidate, of course.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: Freedom2016 on October 18, 2020, 09:13:12 PM
Believe pollsters have not found evidence of shy voters, either in 2016 or in 2020.

See, e.g. 538:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: Little Aussie Battler on October 19, 2020, 02:45:20 AM
As an Australian, Iím surprised you didnít go with a more recent example and talk about Ďthe quiet Australiansí who the PM referred to in his (unlikely) victory speech just last year.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: Leisured on October 19, 2020, 04:07:33 AM
Thank you for your replies. It looks as though the polls are accurate enough, but the uncertainty is voter turnout. I regard the Trump phenomenon as an aberration, so all the anti Trump forces need to do is to get out and vote.

Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: Bloop Bloop on October 20, 2020, 04:42:59 AM
As an Australian, Iím surprised you didnít go with a more recent example and talk about Ďthe quiet Australiansí who the PM referred to in his (unlikely) victory speech just last year.

I was one of them.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: former player on October 20, 2020, 06:33:17 AM
As an Australian, Iím surprised you didnít go with a more recent example and talk about Ďthe quiet Australiansí who the PM referred to in his (unlikely) victory speech just last year.

I was one of them.
You were quiet? Wow.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on October 20, 2020, 08:29:06 AM
I regard the Trump phenomenon as an aberration.

But is it a one-time aberration?

Once opened can a  Pandora's Box of political candidates ever be closed again?

I think of  the election of Jesse Ventura as governor of Minnesota as the first politically significant opening of a Pandora's Box of political candidates.



Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: katsiki on October 20, 2020, 11:37:28 AM
Hmm...  Hulk Hogan for president in 2024?

:)
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: Kris on October 20, 2020, 11:42:14 AM
Hmm...  Hulk Hogan for president in 2024?

:)

Honestly, after Trump, he is not more ridiculous.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: sherr on October 20, 2020, 11:58:41 AM
Hmm...  Hulk Hogan for president in 2024?

:)

There are tons of people who would be ridiculously unqualified like Trump. But there are probably very, very few people who would be as intentionally divisive as Trump. Calling the press the enemy of the people, calling liberals traitors, refusing to give federal disaster support funds to blue states and intentionally rigging the tax code to hurt blue state voters more, etc.

I feel like Hulk Hogan would at least try to be a president to all Americans, not just the ones who voted for him.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: PDXTabs on October 20, 2020, 12:25:13 PM
Hmm...  Hulk Hogan for president in 2024?

:)

There are tons of people who would be ridiculously unqualified like Trump. But there are probably very, very few people who would be as intentionally divisive as Trump. Calling the press the enemy of the people, calling liberals traitors, refusing to give federal disaster support funds to blue states and intentionally rigging the tax code to hurt blue state voters more, etc.

I feel like Hulk Hogan would at least try to be a president to all Americans, not just the ones who voted for him.

Not to mention alienating our allies. I don't really see Hulk Hogan threatening to pull out of NATO.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: wenchsenior on October 20, 2020, 12:56:17 PM
As an Australian, Iím surprised you didnít go with a more recent example and talk about Ďthe quiet Australiansí who the PM referred to in his (unlikely) victory speech just last year.

I was one of them.
You were quiet? Wow.

LOL
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: katsiki on October 20, 2020, 01:56:41 PM
I think we (?) may be on to something with this Hulk Hogan 2024 campaign idea.  I wonder if he has a press contact who can discuss it with him.

I kid..
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: Freedom2016 on October 20, 2020, 05:33:58 PM
I regard the Trump phenomenon as an aberration.

But is it a one-time aberration?

Once opened can a  Pandora's Box of political candidates ever be closed again?

I think of  the election of Jesse Ventura as governor of Minnesota as the first politically significant opening of a Pandora's Box of political candidates.

What about CA Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger (actor) ?
Or MN Senator Al Franken (comedian) ?
Or former president Ronald Reagan (actor) ?

Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on October 20, 2020, 06:09:52 PM
I regard the Trump phenomenon as an aberration.

But is it a one-time aberration?

Once opened can a  Pandora's Box of political candidates ever be closed again?

I think of  the election of Jesse Ventura as governor of Minnesota as the first politically significant opening of a Pandora's Box of political candidates.

What about CA Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger (actor) ?
Or MN Senator Al Franken (comedian) ?
Or former president Ronald Reagan (actor) ?

I do not think of them as  outrť  as Ventura.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 20, 2020, 07:27:11 PM
I regard the Trump phenomenon as an aberration.

But is it a one-time aberration?

Once opened can a  Pandora's Box of political candidates ever be closed again?

I think of  the election of Jesse Ventura as governor of Minnesota as the first politically significant opening of a Pandora's Box of political candidates.

What about CA Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger (actor) ?
Or MN Senator Al Franken (comedian) ?
Or former president Ronald Reagan (actor) ?

Sonny Bono in California.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: Kris on October 20, 2020, 07:56:48 PM
I regard the Trump phenomenon as an aberration.

But is it a one-time aberration?

Once opened can a  Pandora's Box of political candidates ever be closed again?

I think of  the election of Jesse Ventura as governor of Minnesota as the first politically significant opening of a Pandora's Box of political candidates.

What about CA Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger (actor) ?
Or MN Senator Al Franken (comedian) ?
Or former president Ronald Reagan (actor) ?

Sonny Bono in California.

Fred Grandy in Iowa.
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: MDM on October 20, 2020, 11:03:45 PM
Or former president Ronald Reagan (actor) ?
Is that the same Ronald Reagan who was governor of California for eight years?
Title: Re: Shy Tories and the US presidential election
Post by: bloodaxe on October 22, 2020, 12:26:46 PM
There's a good chance that Tuberville (football coach) will win the Alabama senate seat in a few weeks.