Should the US Defend Taiwan....Worth the Risk?

[scottish]

It seems that many in the intelligence community have been surprised by recent advances in Chinese Military capabilities, and that those increased capabilities may raise the stakes or alter the cost/benefit for other nations:

https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb

People tend to forget that we've been fielding hypersonic weapons since the 1950s. A ballistic missile, or any rocket that can get something into orbit is a hypersonic weapon. It can hit almost anywhere on Earth in about 30 minutes. Also, this particular report from Financial Times is basically them reporting on a rumor from an undisclosed source that the Chinese had tested a hypersonic weapon that went into orbit and then landed/impacted miles away from it's target. Most ballistic missiles were developed to strike within hundreds of feet of their target, even the ones that are decades old. Also, the Chinese government denied this report and said it was a test of a reusable space vehicle. The reality is the difference between a weapon and a vehicle to get into space is just what the payload is. Replace that satellite with a bomb (or just a chunk of metal) and it becomes a weapon.

The whole thing feels like the military industrial complex trying to scare the government into pouring billions of dollars into some new programs now that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have wound down. Russia and China make some claims about developing new weapons to make it look like they're years ahead of the US, and the military and the defense contractors are happy to oblige by saying if they just had a few billion more they could catch up to these nonexistent threats.

Yeah, maybe.   The report I read claimed that it was a non-ballistic hypersonic missile.   In other words it was maneuvering under power to its target rather than being in free fall like an ICBM.

Hyperbole from the military-industrial complex?   Who can tell...

[PDXTabs]

It seems that many in the intelligence community have been surprised by recent advances in Chinese Military capabilities, and that those increased capabilities may raise the stakes or alter the cost/benefit for other nations:

https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb

People tend to forget that we've been fielding hypersonic weapons since the 1950s. A ballistic missile, or any rocket that can get something into orbit is a hypersonic weapon. It can hit almost anywhere on Earth in about 30 minutes. Also, this particular report from Financial Times is basically them reporting on a rumor from an undisclosed source that the Chinese had tested a hypersonic weapon that went into orbit and then landed/impacted miles away from it's target. Most ballistic missiles were developed to strike within hundreds of feet of their target, even the ones that are decades old. Also, the Chinese government denied this report and said it was a test of a reusable space vehicle. The reality is the difference between a weapon and a vehicle to get into space is just what the payload is. Replace that satellite with a bomb (or just a chunk of metal) and it becomes a weapon.

The whole thing feels like the military industrial complex trying to scare the government into pouring billions of dollars into some new programs now that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have wound down. Russia and China make some claims about developing new weapons to make it look like they're years ahead of the US, and the military and the defense contractors are happy to oblige by saying if they just had a few billion more they could catch up to these nonexistent threats.

Yeah, maybe.   The report I read claimed that it was a non-ballistic hypersonic missile.   In other words it was maneuvering under power to its target rather than being in free fall like an ICBM.

Hyperbole from the military-industrial complex?   Who can tell...

Indeed, but the US and Russia have been testing them. Did you think that China didn't want into the party?

[scottish]

It seems that many in the intelligence community have been surprised by recent advances in Chinese Military capabilities, and that those increased capabilities may raise the stakes or alter the cost/benefit for other nations:

https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb

People tend to forget that we've been fielding hypersonic weapons since the 1950s. A ballistic missile, or any rocket that can get something into orbit is a hypersonic weapon. It can hit almost anywhere on Earth in about 30 minutes. Also, this particular report from Financial Times is basically them reporting on a rumor from an undisclosed source that the Chinese had tested a hypersonic weapon that went into orbit and then landed/impacted miles away from it's target. Most ballistic missiles were developed to strike within hundreds of feet of their target, even the ones that are decades old. Also, the Chinese government denied this report and said it was a test of a reusable space vehicle. The reality is the difference between a weapon and a vehicle to get into space is just what the payload is. Replace that satellite with a bomb (or just a chunk of metal) and it becomes a weapon.

The whole thing feels like the military industrial complex trying to scare the government into pouring billions of dollars into some new programs now that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have wound down. Russia and China make some claims about developing new weapons to make it look like they're years ahead of the US, and the military and the defense contractors are happy to oblige by saying if they just had a few billion more they could catch up to these nonexistent threats.

Yeah, maybe.   The report I read claimed that it was a non-ballistic hypersonic missile.   In other words it was maneuvering under power to its target rather than being in free fall like an ICBM.

Hyperbole from the military-industrial complex?   Who can tell...

Indeed, but the US and Russia have been testing them. Did you think that China didn't want into the party?

I think it would be unusual for China to innovate in this space unless someone else was already doing it.    Not that we need more innovation in nuclear weapons delivery.