Poll

Who do you think will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Donald Trump
105 (29.6%)
Joe Biden
230 (64.8%)
3rd-Party Candidate or Black Swan Event (e.g., Trump or Biden dies)
20 (5.6%)

Total Members Voted: 352

Author Topic: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?  (Read 163525 times)

caracarn

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1400 on: November 06, 2020, 01:16:05 PM »
More importantly, I expect that the Trump admin will refuse to work with the Biden transition team at all, and that they will intentionally leave their respective departments in a giant mess. Biden's admin will have to work for months just to get back to where everyone else starts out.
Biden seems to have already indicated he would not be initiating any calls to Trump.  You know Trump will not call him.  To me this signals that Biden clearly understands there is little he needs to understand in a transition.  Honestly what valuable information could be transferred.  Which agencies have been run well?  At this point it might be the same amount of work but at least you do not need the frustration of listening to misinformation and incompetence as you try to transition? 

frugalnacho

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1401 on: November 06, 2020, 01:56:39 PM »
I still think there’s a 50/50 chance on Jan 20 we get a comical image of Trump handcuffed to the desk in the Oval Office, swallowing the key.

In that case, I say we continue the comedy and cut him open to retrieve it.

Less comically, I predict that Trump:

1) will not call Biden to congratulate him
2) will not make a concession speech
3) will not attend the inauguration in January
4) will continue to say forever that Biden is illegitimate

And Fox will refuse to call Biden the president-elect.

All of these things will mean that Trump voters will expect any and all GOP office-holders to do the same. And many of them will.

I'm not sure on Fox...they called AZ for Biden before anyone else, no?

No the fox news decision desk called AZ for Biden.  The decision desk is a separate thing from what you know as fox news.  Fox news and it's pundits are going to continue to be absolutely, comically biased and terrible.

waltworks

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1402 on: November 06, 2020, 03:13:15 PM »
There's a good Yuval Levin article at National Review that argues that, essentially, voters rejected the extremes of both parties here (ie, Trumpism on one side, far-left identity politics on the other).

I tend to agree, and it will be interesting to see how/if the parties reconfigure themselves going forward. I'd like think think this opens the door for cooperation... but I'm not that naive, either.

-W

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1403 on: November 06, 2020, 03:38:41 PM »
There's a good Yuval Levin article at National Review that argues that, essentially, voters rejected the extremes of both parties here (ie, Trumpism on one side, far-left identity politics on the other).

I tend to agree, and it will be interesting to see how/if the parties reconfigure themselves going forward. I'd like think think this opens the door for cooperation... but I'm not that naive, either.

-W

Imo wishful thinking.

The Republican establishment will be happy to see Trump go, but there will always be that undercurrent/fringe element.

No chance identity politicians see this as a defeat.

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WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1405 on: November 06, 2020, 04:05:09 PM »
To understand why Trump voters are refusing to admit that their candidate has less support, you need to understand the mindset of the white trash hillbilly. Our world is very small and we assume that everyone everywhere lives the way we do except for foreigners who are like characters on TV. They aren’t real. For example, growing up, I assumed that every community was 98% white and rural and everywhere was covered in mountains and forest so environmental conservation was a hoax (since there were plenty of forests and wild places everywhere.)

For the Trump voter, they go to a rally and ten thousand people are there. That could be everyone who lives in several towns nearby which is everybody they can imagine. If ten thousand people show up to a rally, that means that everyone supports Trump. So when they see the vote counts on TV, they cry foul because clearly this has to be some underhanded fraud, since everyone they know supports Trump. The Democrats can only obtain power fraudulently because nobody on Hillbilly Mountain supports them. That’s everyone.

To be fair to white trash hillbillies, though, liberals aren’t immune to this way of thinking either. Many far-left Bernie Sanders supporters believe that everyone in the Democratic Party voted for Bernie because everyone on Twitter was talking about him. So when Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden won, it was because the election was rigged, not because they got more votes. They don’t understand that there is a world beyond their small bubble.

maizefolk

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1406 on: November 06, 2020, 05:22:52 PM »
The Republican establishment will be happy to see Trump go, but there will always be that undercurrent/fringe element.

Yes. But going back to it being an undercurrent would be a big improvement over it being front a center to the point even republicans who might have disagreed were afraid to disagree on the record.

Quote
No chance identity politicians see this as a defeat.

Yes. But it may empower and embolden the many democrats who don't buy into that same worldview to push back against it. And that would be an improvement too.

Montecarlo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1407 on: November 06, 2020, 05:58:48 PM »
The Republican establishment will be happy to see Trump go, but there will always be that undercurrent/fringe element.

Yes. But going back to it being an undercurrent would be a big improvement over it being front a center to the point even republicans who might have disagreed were afraid to disagree on the record.

Quote
No chance identity politicians see this as a defeat.

Yes. But it may empower and embolden the many democrats who don't buy into that same worldview to push back against it. And that would be an improvement too.

I agree on both points

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1408 on: November 07, 2020, 01:39:41 AM »
Food for Thought:

In 2016, Trump won the Electoral College 306 - 232.*. He called it an “historic landslide” despite losing the popular vote and winning 3 states by less than 1%.  Those three states had a difference of about 107k votes.

If things end largely as they appear to be as of right now, in 2020 Biden will win the Electoral College 306 - 232*.  Trump will again lose the popular vote and this time Biden will win 3 states by less than 1%.  It’s unclear exactly how many votes will be the difference in these three states but right now it stands at about 62k, and many expect it to climb slightly.

>>
>>

Just for comparison, the victor won only one state that was within 1% in 2012 (FL), one in 2008 (NC)  two in 2004 (IW and NM), one in 2000 (FL), one in 1996 (KY), one in 1992 (GA), zero in 1988, and one in 1984 (MI).  Of those, only the 2000 election was decided by a ‘close state’. You have to go back to Reagan’s landslide 1980 win to find another case when three states were won by less than 1% (and they did not matter for his victory).
In the last 80+ years, only Kennedy’s 1960 victory over Nixon had more very close races (5 which Kennedy won by < 1%).


*Trump’s ultimate EC votes were 304 - 227, as seven ‘faithless electors’ cast their ballot for other people, 2 of whom were pledged to Trump and 5 to HRC.  In 2020 electors will vote Dec 14th.

Steeze

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1409 on: November 07, 2020, 09:44:05 AM »
I am in NYC - people are celebrating in the streets! Banging pots and pans out their windows, cheering, honking horns!
« Last Edit: November 07, 2020, 09:46:09 AM by Steeze »

bbqbonelesswing

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1410 on: November 07, 2020, 10:16:34 AM »
I am in NYC - people are celebrating in the streets! Banging pots and pans out their windows, cheering, honking horns!

Same here in Philly. What a beautiful day!

maizefolk

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1411 on: November 07, 2020, 10:18:18 AM »
Fox has called Arizona for Biden.

Wow! If this holds up, that's pretty much it for Trump.

How do you figure?  It's a big deal, but not a death knell

Assuming the call in Arizona holds (and Biden wins the one electoral vote in Omaha, which also looks quite certain) Trump would have to win at least one of Minnesota, Wisconsin or Michigan now in order to turn things around.

That's a much harder lift than just winning PA, which was already going to be a lot harder for him than winning Florida or North Carolina (and the outcome in NC doesn't appear certain yet).

If you put the states that have already been called into 538's model including Arizona, Trump is down to a 3% chance of success (started at 11%, jumped up to ~30% when Florida was called for him).

Well it ended up taking longer than I think any of us had guessed Tuesday night, but even the major news networks have called the election for Biden now.

Whether or not Fox was right to make the call with the data they had Tuesday night, a big thank you to them (and the good people of Omaha, NE) for letting me get a good night's sleep Tuesday night and every night since then while people around me were clearly hanging by a thread.

OtherJen

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1412 on: November 07, 2020, 10:32:21 AM »
I am very glad to be wrong today.

Dicey

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1413 on: November 07, 2020, 10:42:48 AM »
I am very glad to be alive today!

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1414 on: November 07, 2020, 10:58:25 AM »
My neighborhood's been quiet, but friends are buzzing joyfully (literally - more texts than phone calls so far). Also, my Roommate Who Never Talks was happy; even took off headphones to chat briefly, smiling.

I have a couple people in my close circle who overlap with lots of conservatives, many of whom probably voted for Trump. Hoping for them to have the least heartbreaking day possible because I'm sure it doesn't feel the same for them.

mm1970

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1415 on: November 07, 2020, 11:00:07 AM »
To understand why Trump voters are refusing to admit that their candidate has less support, you need to understand the mindset of the white trash hillbilly. Our world is very small and we assume that everyone everywhere lives the way we do except for foreigners who are like characters on TV. They aren’t real. For example, growing up, I assumed that every community was 98% white and rural and everywhere was covered in mountains and forest so environmental conservation was a hoax (since there were plenty of forests and wild places everywhere.)

For the Trump voter, they go to a rally and ten thousand people are there. That could be everyone who lives in several towns nearby which is everybody they can imagine. If ten thousand people show up to a rally, that means that everyone supports Trump. So when they see the vote counts on TV, they cry foul because clearly this has to be some underhanded fraud, since everyone they know supports Trump. The Democrats can only obtain power fraudulently because nobody on Hillbilly Mountain supports them. That’s everyone.

To be fair to white trash hillbillies, though, liberals aren’t immune to this way of thinking either. Many far-left Bernie Sanders supporters believe that everyone in the Democratic Party voted for Bernie because everyone on Twitter was talking about him. So when Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden won, it was because the election was rigged, not because they got more votes. They don’t understand that there is a world beyond their small bubble.

This was very very well put.  I grew up in rural NW PA, so you pretty much nailed the hillybilly, or as my mom called herself and her people "Pennsyltucky".

I also now live in liberal Coastal California.  The pro-Bernie crowd is REALLY strident.  I tried to explain to them that there are large swaths of normal democrats ALL OVER the country (PA, NY, VA, DC, to name a few places I've lived and been) where Bernie is just TOO far left.  (He was too far left for me.)  They wanted nothing of it.

Nick_Miller

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1416 on: November 07, 2020, 11:01:45 AM »
We aren't really a fireworks type of family, but Mrs. Miller just told me that if we had some, she'd be in the backyard setting them off right now. I found that so sexy!


RetiredAt63

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1417 on: November 07, 2020, 12:03:02 PM »
Lots of Canadians are happy too.  The weird thing is that usually our trade relations do better with Republican presidents (don't ask me for a source, I read this once and was so surprised that it stayed in long term memory).  But former President Trump pushed so many Canadian buttons.  Insults like imposing tariffs because Canada is a national security risk. Seriously?  Biden is going in with a lot of international social capital.

HBFIRE

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1418 on: November 07, 2020, 01:10:25 PM »
There's a good Yuval Levin article at National Review that argues that, essentially, voters rejected the extremes of both parties here (ie, Trumpism on one side, far-left identity politics on the other).

I tend to agree, and it will be interesting to see how/if the parties reconfigure themselves going forward. I'd like think think this opens the door for cooperation... but I'm not that naive, either.

-W

This is right I think.  People in general wanted the authoritarian fascist out, but are NOT on board with extreme leftism either.  I'm genuinely glad to see this.  BOTH parties will need to adjust their strategy to middle America. 

ixtap

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1419 on: November 07, 2020, 01:12:22 PM »
There's a good Yuval Levin article at National Review that argues that, essentially, voters rejected the extremes of both parties here (ie, Trumpism on one side, far-left identity politics on the other).

I tend to agree, and it will be interesting to see how/if the parties reconfigure themselves going forward. I'd like think think this opens the door for cooperation... but I'm not that naive, either.

-W

This is right I think.  People in general wanted the authoritarian fascist out, but are NOT on board with extreme leftism either.  I'm genuinely glad to see this.  BOTH parties will need to adjust their strategy to middle America.

Not sure how to get any more middle than Biden?

HBFIRE

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1420 on: November 07, 2020, 01:18:47 PM »


Not sure how to get any more middle than Biden?

I'm not referring to Biden here, I'm referring to the political movements in general across the board as shown by what happened in the House and Senate.  Btw, here is the article referrred to.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/our-two-minority-parties/
« Last Edit: November 07, 2020, 01:25:14 PM by HBFIRE »

secondcor521

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1421 on: November 07, 2020, 03:29:15 PM »
Senator Schiff?  Senator Garcetti?  Senator Swalwell?  Senator Bass?

(New poll?)

sui generis

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1422 on: November 07, 2020, 04:29:16 PM »
Senator Schiff?  Senator Garcetti?  Senator Swalwell?  Senator Bass?

(New poll?)

I love this and have been hounding all my friends for their predictions/wishes.  We all want a Senator Lee (we live in her district) and one of my friends made a really good case for a Senator Becerra.

Edit: I'd also be down with a Senator Lieu.

secondcor521

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1423 on: November 07, 2020, 04:37:22 PM »
Senator Schiff?  Senator Garcetti?  Senator Swalwell?  Senator Bass?

(New poll?)

I love this and have been hounding all my friends for their predictions/wishes.  We all want a Senator Lee (we live in her district) and one of my friends made a really good case for a Senator Becerra.

Edit: I'd also be down with a Senator Lieu.

Not a Californian here, so I went with the names I recognized from my corner of flyover country. ;-)

I'm sure Governor Newsom dance card has been filling up today.

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1424 on: November 07, 2020, 05:18:27 PM »
Lots of Canadians are happy too.  The weird thing is that usually our trade relations do better with Republican presidents (don't ask me for a source, I read this once and was so surprised that it stayed in long term memory).  But former President Trump pushed so many Canadian buttons.  Insults like imposing tariffs because Canada is a national security risk. Seriously?  Biden is going in with a lot of international social capital.

Everyone but Alberta.  They're going to be pretty pissed about the pipeline cancellation that Biden promised.  :P

RetiredAt63

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1425 on: November 07, 2020, 05:30:48 PM »
Lots of Canadians are happy too.  The weird thing is that usually our trade relations do better with Republican presidents (don't ask me for a source, I read this once and was so surprised that it stayed in long term memory).  But former President Trump pushed so many Canadian buttons.  Insults like imposing tariffs because Canada is a national security risk. Seriously?  Biden is going in with a lot of international social capital.

Everyone but Alberta.  They're going to be pretty pissed about the pipeline cancellation that Biden promised.  :P

I don't know his grounds, but I remember when it was first proposed that leaks would endanger a major aquifer.  If you propose a stupid route, expect to have problems.  Plus at this point isn't the low world oil price the major problem for Alberta?  I know I never expected to see regular gasoline below $1/l and it is hovering around $0.91 right now.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1426 on: November 07, 2020, 05:45:03 PM »
Lots of Canadians are happy too.  The weird thing is that usually our trade relations do better with Republican presidents (don't ask me for a source, I read this once and was so surprised that it stayed in long term memory).  But former President Trump pushed so many Canadian buttons.  Insults like imposing tariffs because Canada is a national security risk. Seriously?  Biden is going in with a lot of international social capital.

Everyone but Alberta.  They're going to be pretty pissed about the pipeline cancellation that Biden promised.  :P

I don't know his grounds, but I remember when it was first proposed that leaks would endanger a major aquifer.  If you propose a stupid route, expect to have problems.  Plus at this point isn't the low world oil price the major problem for Alberta?  I know I never expected to see regular gasoline below $1/l and it is hovering around $0.91 right now.
Keystone XL is a textbook example of a corporation not understanding the stakeholders.  They proposed a stupid route through sacred and ecologically critical habitat because it was the cheapest option, and then assumed that the federal government could grant it regardless of local jurisdictions.

In the end they’ll spend far more than they would had they just engaged from the get-go, only now they have the very real possibility of having absolutely nothing to show for it in the end.

Travis

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1427 on: November 07, 2020, 06:20:24 PM »
Any idea what legal challenges are on the menu for Monday?

frugalnacho

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1428 on: November 07, 2020, 08:00:09 PM »
Any idea what legal challenges are on the menu for Monday?

Trump vs Democracy

Abe

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1429 on: November 07, 2020, 09:20:46 PM »
Any idea what legal challenges are on the menu for Monday?

A bunch of nonsense that won't affect the outcomes, since many of the ballots they will challenge (mail-in, hanging chads, blah blah) aren't included in the totals reported so far. They've struck out in terms of legal challenges so far (having Justice Alito tell Pennsylvania to do what it is already doing isn't a victory). They have yet to provide any evidence of any voter fraud, much less anything that would alter the outcomes of any given state, not to speak of the overall electoral college vote. But hey, I don't mind them wasting their own damn money. Rack up them lawyer fees!!

Abe

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1430 on: November 07, 2020, 09:28:04 PM »
Regarding leftists: I half/half US center-left (European center-right) and US leftist (European left). Some of the policies to my left are a bit naive but well intentioned, some are actually what most developed countries already do. None of them will gain any traction in the US when half the country stridently opposes left-leaning policies regardless of their personal benefit. To gain traction, they will need to detach identity politics of all types from economic policies.  We can't will a European socialist system into existence by fiat, and sure as hell don't have the support for it within the populace. At this point I want to hear realistic policies not loaded by baggage that's easy to take pot-shots at on TV "news". A good example would be market incentives for renewable energy not tied to people's race.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1431 on: November 07, 2020, 10:02:56 PM »
Regarding leftists: I half/half US center-left (European center-right) and US leftist (European left). Some of the policies to my left are a bit naive but well intentioned, some are actually what most developed countries already do. None of them will gain any traction in the US when half the country stridently opposes left-leaning policies regardless of their personal benefit. To gain traction, they will need to detach identity politics of all types from economic policies.  We can't will a European socialist system into existence by fiat, and sure as hell don't have the support for it within the populace. At this point I want to hear realistic policies not loaded by baggage that's easy to take pot-shots at on TV "news". A good example would be market incentives for renewable energy not tied to people's race.

There are several policies in the climate area that a Biden administration could conceivably implement, according to sitting Senators Lisa Murkowski, R-AL, and Sheldon Whitehouse, D-RI; article below. Murkowski is chair of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources; both are existing members of the Senate Climate Solutions Caucus, a group of Senators that includes four Republicans.

Legislative options for which bipartisan support exists per Murkowski:
1. Increased R&D spending on energy technology to "balance" the grid as it includes increasing renewables (I assume that means handle load balancing)
2. Investing in transmission capacity to integrate wind and solar into existing grids

Policies that could be implemented by executive order (despite potshots):
3. Rescind Trump's weakening of regulations on polluters
4. Rescind Trump's reduction of efficiency standards for automobiles and appliances
5. Rescind Trump's opening of federal lands to oil and gas extraction
6. Rejoin the Paris Agreement on climate change

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/prospect-of-republican-senate-majority-narrows-democrats-clean-energy-policy-options?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Daily&utm_campaign=GTMDaily


« Last Edit: November 07, 2020, 10:06:49 PM by BicycleB »

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1432 on: November 08, 2020, 06:24:03 AM »
Now that Biden's got it, I'm curious what everyone's thoughts are in terms of whether or not Georgia voters will decide to give Biden a 50/50 Senate (assuming both are runoffs) or not.

maizefolk

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1433 on: November 08, 2020, 06:38:38 AM »
Now that Biden's got it, I'm curious what everyone's thoughts are in terms of whether or not Georgia voters will decide to give Biden a 50/50 Senate (assuming both are runoffs) or not.

I think it is unlikely. When Obama got elected for the first time in 2008, the Georgia senate race went to a runoff and at the time (Spector hadn't switched parties yet) the runoff was set to determine whether the Obama would have a fillibuster proof majority in the senate. But when the runoff came, turnout dropped more than 40%, the voters who didn't show up again for the runoff were predominantly democratic ones, and the republican nominee won in a landslide.

Now that said, reasons 2020 might not be like 2008:

  • The big shift to mail in voting will make it easier for democrats to turn out the vote amongst less motivated voters
  • In 2020 there are almost two months allowed for the runoff vs roughly one in 2008. Again more time to turn out the vote
  • Warnock, who preaches at MLK's old church, may be a candidate black voters in Georgia are more excited to vote for.
  • In 2008, Obama chose not to campaign in Georgia so as to not risk starting his presidency with a defeat. My guess is that Biden will choose otherwise. (It also helps that Biden looks to have won Georgia, while Obama had lost it by 4% in 2008.)
  • "Who controls the senate" is easier for the average voter to understand and get excited about than "fillibuster proof majority."

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1434 on: November 08, 2020, 07:11:06 AM »
Looks to me like Biden is planning a bunch of executive orders to undo many of Trump's executive orders. Good for him.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1435 on: November 08, 2020, 10:34:18 AM »
Looks to me like Biden is planning a bunch of executive orders to undo many of Trump's executive orders. Good for him.

And rejoining the Paris climate agreement.  It's good  to be restoring global respect.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1436 on: November 09, 2020, 02:37:23 AM »
Looks to me like Biden is planning a bunch of executive orders to undo many of Trump's executive orders. Good for him.

And rejoining the Paris climate agreement.  It's good  to be restoring global respect.

That has to be good news.

Travis

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1437 on: November 09, 2020, 03:19:26 AM »
Looks to me like Biden is planning a bunch of executive orders to undo many of Trump's executive orders. Good for him.

And rejoining the Paris climate agreement.  It's good  to be restoring global respect.

The ideal outcome is for Biden to get some of those things turned into legislation so they're no longer at the whims of the president.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1438 on: November 09, 2020, 04:44:32 AM »
He could still win 6-3.

Of course, if he doesn't then you guys get to have another war or two.

cliffhanger

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1439 on: November 09, 2020, 06:34:25 AM »
Now that Biden's got it, I'm curious what everyone's thoughts are in terms of whether or not Georgia voters will decide to give Biden a 50/50 Senate (assuming both are runoffs) or not.

I think it is unlikely. When Obama got elected for the first time in 2008, the Georgia senate race went to a runoff and at the time (Spector hadn't switched parties yet) the runoff was set to determine whether the Obama would have a fillibuster proof majority in the senate. But when the runoff came, turnout dropped more than 40%, the voters who didn't show up again for the runoff were predominantly democratic ones, and the republican nominee won in a landslide.

Now that said, reasons 2020 might not be like 2008:

  • The big shift to mail in voting will make it easier for democrats to turn out the vote amongst less motivated voters
  • In 2020 there are almost two months allowed for the runoff vs roughly one in 2008. Again more time to turn out the vote
  • Warnock, who preaches at MLK's old church, may be a candidate black voters in Georgia are more excited to vote for.
  • In 2008, Obama chose not to campaign in Georgia so as to not risk starting his presidency with a defeat. My guess is that Biden will choose otherwise. (It also helps that Biden looks to have won Georgia, while Obama had lost it by 4% in 2008.)
  • "Who controls the senate" is easier for the average voter to understand and get excited about than "fillibuster proof majority."

I think Dems have an uphill battle in GA. Considering how surprisingly well Reps did in the election (except Trump), seems that voters are rejecting Trump, but also rejecting much of the rhetoric of the left. I think that'll translate into the Senate runoff.

However, you do have some good points. With mail in voting and the amount of national pressure we're about to get. It'll still be tight. I'm most disappointed that I'm going to keep receiving 4 flyers a day in the mail...

DadJokes

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1440 on: November 09, 2020, 06:46:32 AM »
A Facebook post from my brother-in-law (a pastor in TX) this weekend:

Quote
There is some extremely shady stuff happening in our "free" election! It's shady that they keep "finding" ballots for Biden but not trump. It's shady that the only places the have "found" allots are in these last few states. It's shady that people counting these votes are doing shady things like quitting counting in the middle of the night. Ladies and gentlemen, we are watching people steal an election and worse, destroy democracy. But here's the worse thing. They are not just destroying democracy in America. They are robbing nations around the world of the hope that democracy and freedom can exist and actually works. All my life I can remember times when I was so proud that my America would stand up for emerging countries fighting and struggling and striving for freedom, for what America had stood for. I can remember being so proud as I pictured America standing guard over those being bullied ad oppressed and allowing them to taste freedom, many for the very first time. The people behind this shady stuff happening in our election are destroying all of that! How can we possibly presume to go into another country and suggest that we can help them taste democracy, taste freedom, taste justice? Why would anyone ever believe that we could stand guard and ensure a free election for them when we can't even guarantee one for ourselves. I fear that this is the moment the America I love dies.

I unfortunately had to spend the weekend with family while attending a funeral. Some of the things I heard were just bizarre. For example, it's taken as a given that Biden will die (or at least go completely senile) before his first term is up.

Having a bit of exposure to both sides of the aisle, I've learned that there is a fair bit of lunacy on both sides from otherwise intelligent people.

OtherJen

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1441 on: November 09, 2020, 07:06:59 AM »
A Facebook post from my brother-in-law (a pastor in TX) this weekend:

Quote
There is some extremely shady stuff happening in our "free" election! It's shady that they keep "finding" ballots for Biden but not trump. It's shady that the only places the have "found" allots are in these last few states. It's shady that people counting these votes are doing shady things like quitting counting in the middle of the night. Ladies and gentlemen, we are watching people steal an election and worse, destroy democracy. But here's the worse thing. They are not just destroying democracy in America. They are robbing nations around the world of the hope that democracy and freedom can exist and actually works. All my life I can remember times when I was so proud that my America would stand up for emerging countries fighting and struggling and striving for freedom, for what America had stood for. I can remember being so proud as I pictured America standing guard over those being bullied ad oppressed and allowing them to taste freedom, many for the very first time. The people behind this shady stuff happening in our election are destroying all of that! How can we possibly presume to go into another country and suggest that we can help them taste democracy, taste freedom, taste justice? Why would anyone ever believe that we could stand guard and ensure a free election for them when we can't even guarantee one for ourselves. I fear that this is the moment the America I love dies.

I unfortunately had to spend the weekend with family while attending a funeral. Some of the things I heard were just bizarre. For example, it's taken as a given that Biden will die (or at least go completely senile) before his first term is up.

Having a bit of exposure to both sides of the aisle, I've learned that there is a fair bit of lunacy on both sides from otherwise intelligent people.

Yikes. As a poll worker who worked with other highly professional poll workers of various parties on Tuesday, I am incredibly offended by the assertion that we have not done our jobs properly. By "we," I mean the Republican and Democrat Secretaries of State and County/City/Township clerks and the millions of poll workers, absentee ballot counters, poll watchers, and poll challengers from all parties nationwide. I'm seeing many "Christians" asserting--nay, lying, as they have no valid proof--that we have all conspired against them because they didn't get the result that they wanted.

I have no problem with a recount in a close race. I also have no problem with an investigation of glitches like the one in Antrim county in my own state (a failure to update reporting software that caused an issue with the reported results; a check of the tabulator tapes and ballots yielded the correct results very quickly and easily). That's how the system works.

But to insist that millions of people of all parties have committed fraud because you didn't get what you want...well, I can see why they support Trump. It sounds like the same "wah wah, the world owes me what I want just because I want it" mindset. It's not any form of Christianity with which I was raised. I was taught that it was against the commandments to bear false witness against your neighbor. Maybe some churches don't actually teach that anymore.

Travis

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1442 on: November 09, 2020, 07:13:15 AM »
I'm most disappointed that I'm going to keep receiving 4 flyers a day in the mail...

I only check my PO Box every few weeks as I never receive anything important and I get an email whenever there's a package. Last week I had seven mailings from McSally all demonizing Kelly and none from his campaign. He won. I find that reassuring.

frugalnacho

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1443 on: November 09, 2020, 07:22:32 AM »
Trump projects so goddamn much it's pretty much a given that whatever he is complaining about the other side doing, he is guilty of himself.  It's so consistent and transparent that I can't believe everyone hasn't picked up on it.  Trump claiming an unfair election and widespread voter fraud is the single most convincing thing that it was in fact a completely fair election devoid of fraud. 

maizefolk

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1444 on: November 09, 2020, 07:50:17 AM »
Having a bit of exposure to both sides of the aisle, I've learned that there is a fair bit of lunacy on both sides from otherwise intelligent people.

+1. Or in the words of Dave Chappelle this weekend:

“Now Trump is gone. I know a lot of people don’t like him, but I thought the guy was at least an optimist. I am not as optimistic as he was. I look at it, like, well, there’s bad people on both sides."

(The whole monolog is worth reading, but at least the last section of it. I found him to be one of the most calm and reasoned voiced in 2016 right after Trump was elected, and was similarly impressed two nights ago.)

Just Joe

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1445 on: November 09, 2020, 09:29:47 AM »
I think Dems have an uphill battle in GA. Considering how surprisingly well Reps did in the election (except Trump), seems that voters are rejecting Trump, but also rejecting much of the rhetoric of the left.

The Fox News version of the left's rhetoric. ;)

cliffhanger

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1446 on: November 09, 2020, 11:41:10 AM »
I think Dems have an uphill battle in GA. Considering how surprisingly well Reps did in the election (except Trump), seems that voters are rejecting Trump, but also rejecting much of the rhetoric of the left.

The Fox News version of the left's rhetoric. ;)

No, I don't watch Fox. I'm referring to Democrats talking about expanding the Supreme Court and eliminating the filibuster. I'm not too worried honestly. I remember when Harry Reid eliminated the filibuster for Judicial appointments and now ~25% of the Judiciary have been appointed by Trump. So have fun with no filibuster... while you have power...

Democrats eye expanding Supreme Court if Trump's nominee is confirmed

Quote
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told members of his conference that "nothing is off the table" if Democrats retake the Senate, indicating that he is willing to consider expanding the court. Senator Ed Markey, one of the more progressive Democrats in the Senate, has called outright for eliminating the filibuster and expanding the court. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerry Nadler tweeted that if the Republican Senate confirms a justice after Election Day but before a new Congress is sworn in, "then the incoming Senate should immediately move to expand the Supreme Court."

caracarn

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1447 on: November 09, 2020, 02:02:24 PM »
I think Dems have an uphill battle in GA. Considering how surprisingly well Reps did in the election (except Trump), seems that voters are rejecting Trump, but also rejecting much of the rhetoric of the left.

The Fox News version of the left's rhetoric. ;)

No, I don't watch Fox. I'm referring to Democrats talking about expanding the Supreme Court and eliminating the filibuster. I'm not too worried honestly. I remember when Harry Reid eliminated the filibuster for Judicial appointments and now ~25% of the Judiciary have been appointed by Trump. So have fun with no filibuster... while you have power...

Democrats eye expanding Supreme Court if Trump's nominee is confirmed

Quote
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told members of his conference that "nothing is off the table" if Democrats retake the Senate, indicating that he is willing to consider expanding the court. Senator Ed Markey, one of the more progressive Democrats in the Senate, has called outright for eliminating the filibuster and expanding the court. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerry Nadler tweeted that if the Republican Senate confirms a justice after Election Day but before a new Congress is sworn in, "then the incoming Senate should immediately move to expand the Supreme Court."
If they expand the court then that are short sighted fools for the reasons you cite and others.  Biden has it right.  It just becomes and ongoing game.  They expand to 13, then when the lose in 4 years because the moderates are pissed, the Republicans will expand it to 15 or 17.  Where does it end?  How about we pass laws that cannot be declared unconstitutional?  How about we pass laws that the majority of the country agrees with so they do not get challenged?  Work within the rules of the game, so not seek to change the game every time something happens you do not like. 

Freedom2016

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1448 on: November 09, 2020, 02:07:33 PM »
I think Dems have an uphill battle in GA. Considering how surprisingly well Reps did in the election (except Trump), seems that voters are rejecting Trump, but also rejecting much of the rhetoric of the left.

The Fox News version of the left's rhetoric. ;)

No, I don't watch Fox. I'm referring to Democrats talking about expanding the Supreme Court and eliminating the filibuster. I'm not too worried honestly. I remember when Harry Reid eliminated the filibuster for Judicial appointments and now ~25% of the Judiciary have been appointed by Trump. So have fun with no filibuster... while you have power...

Democrats eye expanding Supreme Court if Trump's nominee is confirmed

Quote
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told members of his conference that "nothing is off the table" if Democrats retake the Senate, indicating that he is willing to consider expanding the court. Senator Ed Markey, one of the more progressive Democrats in the Senate, has called outright for eliminating the filibuster and expanding the court. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerry Nadler tweeted that if the Republican Senate confirms a justice after Election Day but before a new Congress is sworn in, "then the incoming Senate should immediately move to expand the Supreme Court."
If they expand the court then that are short sighted fools for the reasons you cite and others.  Biden has it right.  It just becomes and ongoing game.  They expand to 13, then when the lose in 4 years because the moderates are pissed, the Republicans will expand it to 15 or 17.  Where does it end?  How about we pass laws that cannot be declared unconstitutional?  How about we pass laws that the majority of the country agrees with so they do not get challenged?  Work within the rules of the game, so not seek to change the game every time something happens you do not like.

I totally understand this sentiment. If no one stops the cycle, the race to the bottom will only continue, on both sides. I also must ask: are posters here holding Democrats to a higher standard than Republicans, who have spent the last 4 years shredding norms and precedents, weaponizing Senate rules to be completely obstructionist and avoid bringing legislation to the floor, denying a Supreme Court nominee a hearing in one case, then shoving through another nominee because they could? Do Democrats have a special responsibility to take the higher ground when Republicans have done nothing of the sort? Are you calling Republicans to the same higher ground?

caracarn

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #1449 on: November 09, 2020, 02:08:08 PM »
A Facebook post from my brother-in-law (a pastor in TX) this weekend:

Quote
There is some extremely shady stuff happening in our "free" election! It's shady that they keep "finding" ballots for Biden but not trump. It's shady that the only places the have "found" allots are in these last few states. It's shady that people counting these votes are doing shady things like quitting counting in the middle of the night. Ladies and gentlemen, we are watching people steal an election and worse, destroy democracy. But here's the worse thing. They are not just destroying democracy in America. They are robbing nations around the world of the hope that democracy and freedom can exist and actually works. All my life I can remember times when I was so proud that my America would stand up for emerging countries fighting and struggling and striving for freedom, for what America had stood for. I can remember being so proud as I pictured America standing guard over those being bullied ad oppressed and allowing them to taste freedom, many for the very first time. The people behind this shady stuff happening in our election are destroying all of that! How can we possibly presume to go into another country and suggest that we can help them taste democracy, taste freedom, taste justice? Why would anyone ever believe that we could stand guard and ensure a free election for them when we can't even guarantee one for ourselves. I fear that this is the moment the America I love dies.

I unfortunately had to spend the weekend with family while attending a funeral. Some of the things I heard were just bizarre. For example, it's taken as a given that Biden will die (or at least go completely senile) before his first term is up.

Having a bit of exposure to both sides of the aisle, I've learned that there is a fair bit of lunacy on both sides from otherwise intelligent people.

Yikes. As a poll worker who worked with other highly professional poll workers of various parties on Tuesday, I am incredibly offended by the assertion that we have not done our jobs properly. By "we," I mean the Republican and Democrat Secretaries of State and County/City/Township clerks and the millions of poll workers, absentee ballot counters, poll watchers, and poll challengers from all parties nationwide. I'm seeing many "Christians" asserting--nay, lying, as they have no valid proof--that we have all conspired against them because they didn't get the result that they wanted.

I have no problem with a recount in a close race. I also have no problem with an investigation of glitches like the one in Antrim county in my own state (a failure to update reporting software that caused an issue with the reported results; a check of the tabulator tapes and ballots yielded the correct results very quickly and easily). That's how the system works.

But to insist that millions of people of all parties have committed fraud because you didn't get what you want...well, I can see why they support Trump. It sounds like the same "wah wah, the world owes me what I want just because I want it" mindset. It's not any form of Christianity with which I was raised. I was taught that it was against the commandments to bear false witness against your neighbor. Maybe some churches don't actually teach that anymore.
I worked the polls as well and find this highly insulting as well. As a Republican who is fed up with this Republican party, this just alienates me further.  It does not take much effort to research the lack of voter fraud or anything they are claiming.  Instead of continuing to put on the entertainment for those who cannot spend 15 minutes doing actual research to find that all these lawsuits will go nowhere because there is nothing there I would perhaps gain back a little respect for the party if the finally called enough and closed this down and admitted they lost and started working on how to govern, not obstruct.  The wasted effort is insane when we could be doing things that help the American people instead of waste their time and money.

I suggest everyone who is convinced there is voter fraud, be a poll worker.  You will never think that again once you go through training, work the polls and see all the safeguards.  Our system is sound, as evidenced by the one or two events that happen AND GET CAUGHT!   We know about them because the system works, not because we only caught one and missed millions.  The whole idea of that is absurd.