Food for Thought:
In 2016, Trump won the Electoral College 306 - 232.*. He called it an “historic landslide” despite losing the popular vote and winning 3 states by less than 1%. Those three states had a difference of about 107k votes.
If things end largely as they appear to be as of right now, in 2020 Biden will win the Electoral College 306 - 232*. Trump will again lose the popular vote and this time Biden will win 3 states by less than 1%. It’s unclear exactly how many votes will be the difference in these three states but right now it stands at about 62k, and many expect it to climb slightly.
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Just for comparison, the victor won only one state that was within 1% in 2012 (FL), one in 2008 (NC) two in 2004 (IW and NM), one in 2000 (FL), one in 1996 (KY), one in 1992 (GA), zero in 1988, and one in 1984 (MI). Of those, only the 2000 election was decided by a ‘close state’. You have to go back to Reagan’s landslide 1980 win to find another case when three states were won by less than 1% (and they did not matter for his victory).
In the last 80+ years, only Kennedy’s 1960 victory over Nixon had more very close races (5 which Kennedy won by < 1%).
*Trump’s ultimate EC votes were 304 - 227, as seven ‘faithless electors’ cast their ballot for other people, 2 of whom were pledged to Trump and 5 to HRC. In 2020 electors will vote Dec 14th.