Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?

[terran]

Can I change my vote?

In the poll?  Not possible.  But you are welcome to declare your vote change here...

Yes you can. There's a "Remove Vote" button to the left under the poll. Click that then you'll be able to vote with your new choice.

[GuitarStv]

In other news...Trump and Melania test positive for Covid. Craziness, and if Biden somehow got infected from the debate even more....

A guy who refuses to take any precautions, constantly downplays the transmissibility of the virus, and continues to expose himself and others to risky situations contracted the virus?  Who could have seen this coming?  Beyond . . . y'know . . . most sane people?

[nereo]

Can I change my vote?

In the poll?  Not possible.  But you are welcome to declare your vote change here...

Yes you can. There's a "Remove Vote" button to the left under the poll. Click that then you'll be able to vote with your new choice.

i stand corrected!  Thanks for letting me know.

[DoubleDown]

In other news...Trump and Melania test positive for Covid. Craziness, and if Biden somehow got infected from the debate even more....

Yeah I think maybe the "Black Swan Event" should gain more votes in this poll. I'm sticking with my Biden vote (both as my preference and in this poll for who I believe will win), but God forbid he should get Covid because of Trump's disregard for safety and other people.

As much as I detest Trump, because of my Christian values I guess I won't wish his death from it (rather, I'll leave it to God's wishes). But man, I would be fighting a SEVERE case of Schadenfreude. Also, for pragmatic reasons, I'd worry about the Republicans swapping Trump out for a more electable choice (like Pence), which could potentially throw the election in their favor. So yeah, I hope Trump doesn't die from it (definitely not before Nov. 3).

[nereo]

In other news...Trump and Melania test positive for Covid. Craziness, and if Biden somehow got infected from the debate even more....

Yeah I think maybe the "Black Swan Event" should gain more votes in this poll. I'm sticking with my Biden vote (both as my preference and in this poll for who I believe will win), but God forbid he should get Covid because of Trump's disregard for safety and other people.

Nitpicky, but Trump contracting Covid during a pandemic is not a "Black Swan event".  It's completely predictable and has been openly speculated about for the last 6 months. Frankly I'm a bit surprised that it's taken this long, given how close Trump has been interacting with large groups of unmasked people over the last month. Neither would the death of either of these septagenarians be a black swan.  By definition a black-swan event is one that almost no one foresaw.

[DoubleDown]

In other news...Trump and Melania test positive for Covid. Craziness, and if Biden somehow got infected from the debate even more....

Yeah I think maybe the "Black Swan Event" should gain more votes in this poll. I'm sticking with my Biden vote (both as my preference and in this poll for who I believe will win), but God forbid he should get Covid because of Trump's disregard for safety and other people.

Nitpicky, but Trump contracting Covid during a pandemic is not a "Black Swan event".  It's completely predictable and has been openly speculated about for the last 6 months. Frankly I'm a bit surprised that it's taken this long, given how close Trump has been interacting with large groups of unmasked people over the last month. Neither would the death of either of these septagenarians be a black swan.  By definition a black-swan event is one that almost no one foresaw.

Ha, I see your point, and I agree Trump getting Covid is completely predictable (even though he put a greater risk on other people, not himself). But for purposes of this poll, I literally called the third option "Black Swan Event (e.g., Trump or Biden dies)"!

[brandon1827]

Pence is more electable than Trump? I would sincerely doubt that Pence would get any of the votes from people that have defected from the Republican side as he's been enabling Trump and standing idly by while Trump ran roughshod over the party. If Trump dropped out of the race at this point, and Pence was left as the candidate, it would be the biggest landslide defeat in history

[dougules]

So last night my father in law was going on about how unfair Chris Wallace was to Trump and treating Trump bad by arguing with him instead of letting him speak and that the debate questions were all designed to make Trump look bad and put Biden in a good light.

We were both like WHAT?

That’s some alternate universe type shit LOL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, the majority of folks on the right are contained within an alternate reality bubble where whatever Trump and Fox say is reality no matter how far it is from the verifiable facts of the world the rest of us live in.  That's the whole problem.

[nereo]

Pence is more electable than Trump? I would sincerely doubt that Pence would get any of the votes from people that have defected from the Republican side as he's been enabling Trump and standing idly by while Trump ran roughshod over the party. If Trump dropped out of the race at this point, and Pence was left as the candidate, it would be the biggest landslide defeat in history

Pence brings the evangelical vote, but it's hard to overstate how much a large portion of his base does not like and does not trust Pence.  His sycophant actions also make him anathema to all NeverTrump republicans and all democrats.  Hard to see how he attracts moderate leaning voters either.
The coalition which Trump currently enjoys would split if it were Pence + Someone-else.

Pence's super-conservative religiouis nuttiness has managed to mostly fly under the radar because Trump sucks all the oxygen out of the room.  But he's not likely to garner the support of

[brandon1827]

Doesn't Trump already have evangelicals? I don't see a major gain there as they're already a part of the base that would vote for Pence in the absence of Trump on the top of the ticket.

[wenchsenior]

In other news...Trump and Melania test positive for Covid. Craziness, and if Biden somehow got infected from the debate even more....

Yeah I think maybe the "Black Swan Event" should gain more votes in this poll. I'm sticking with my Biden vote (both as my preference and in this poll for who I believe will win), but God forbid he should get Covid because of Trump's disregard for safety and other people.

As much as I detest Trump, because of my Christian values I guess I won't wish his death from it (rather, I'll leave it to God's wishes). But man, I would be fighting a SEVERE case of Schadenfreude. Also, for pragmatic reasons, I'd worry about the Republicans swapping Trump out for a more electable choice (like Pence), which could potentially throw the election in their favor. So yeah, I hope Trump doesn't die from it (definitely not before Nov. 3).

Amusingly, my agnostic father (who voted for Trump in a swing state that went for Trump and within months realized the enormity of his error) just informed me that if Trump dies from Covid, he will officially start believing in god. 

[wenchsenior]

In other news...Trump and Melania test positive for Covid. Craziness, and if Biden somehow got infected from the debate even more....

Yeah I think maybe the "Black Swan Event" should gain more votes in this poll. I'm sticking with my Biden vote (both as my preference and in this poll for who I believe will win), but God forbid he should get Covid because of Trump's disregard for safety and other people.

Nitpicky, but Trump contracting Covid during a pandemic is not a "Black Swan event".  It's completely predictable and has been openly speculated about for the last 6 months. Frankly I'm a bit surprised that it's taken this long, given how close Trump has been interacting with large groups of unmasked people over the last month. Neither would the death of either of these septagenarians be a black swan.  By definition a black-swan event is one that almost no one foresaw.

Yup.

[dougules]

Another question, would Pence be less of a motivating factor for the left?  Trump has got millions of people who would crawl across broken glass to vote against him.  If something had happened to Hillary in 2016 there's a decent chance Tim Kaine would have won.  Trump didn't win so much as Hillary lost.  The right had spent decades turning her into the boogeyman.

[DoubleDown]

I personally think Pence would be far more electable than Trump. I mean, I don't like Pence AT ALL but I think he'd be far more appealing to the Republican Party than Trump, particularly "establishment" Republicans. For starters, he's not a 100% self-absorbed con man that's willing to tear down the country to serve his own ends. Trump has turned off a large segment of the population, especially women and college-educated suburbanites. I think those Republican-leaning voters would flock to a Pence candidacy. But what do I know. Right now the Republican Party = Trump.

[Montecarlo]

So last night my father in law was going on about how unfair Chris Wallace was to Trump and treating Trump bad by arguing with him instead of letting him speak and that the debate questions were all designed to make Trump look bad and put Biden in a good light.

We were both like WHAT?

That’s some alternate universe type shit LOL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, the majority of folks on the right are contained within an alternate reality bubble where whatever Trump and Fox say is reality no matter how far it is from the verifiable facts of the world the rest of us live in.  That's the whole problem.

I only watched the first 1/2 hour because it was such a disgrace, but I actually thought Wallace was pretty fair.  I rarely watch cable news, but the few times I've tuned into his morning show I liked him.  I will admit that was before 2016 so maybe the show has changed since then.  If the questions seemed to make Trump look bad, maybe it's because reality makes Trump look bad?

[sherr]

So last night my father in law was going on about how unfair Chris Wallace was to Trump and treating Trump bad by arguing with him instead of letting him speak and that the debate questions were all designed to make Trump look bad and put Biden in a good light.

We were both like WHAT?

That’s some alternate universe type shit LOL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, the majority of folks on the right are contained within an alternate reality bubble where whatever Trump and Fox say is reality no matter how far it is from the verifiable facts of the world the rest of us live in.  That's the whole problem.

I only watched the first 1/2 hour because it was such a disgrace, but I actually thought Wallace was pretty fair.  I rarely watch cable news, but the few times I've tuned into his morning show I liked him.  I will admit that was before 2016 so maybe the show has changed since then.  If the questions seemed to make Trump look bad, maybe it's because reality makes Trump look bad?

There is a world of difference between Fox's actual news shows, like Wallace and Smith, and the hot flaming garbage that is their opinion shows like Ingram or Carlson. Fox also downplays the difference between the two to lend false credibility to their opinion shows.

[Montecarlo]

I watched some Carlson clips online once, long ones with full context, not like short ones that could have been edited to make him look bad.

Honestly the guy is like a parody of a right wing host.  I would swear if there was a laugh track I would have been on comedy central.

[sherr]

I watched some Carlson clips online once, long ones with full context, not like short ones that could have been edited to make him look bad.

Honestly the guy is like a parody of a right wing host.  I would swear if there was a laugh track I would have been on comedy central.

Watch V for Vendetta again sometime. How exactly identical the state propagandist's show is to the Fox opinion shows will terrify you.

[John Galt incarnate!]

Another question, would Pence be less of a motivating factor for the left?  Trump has got millions of people who would crawl across broken glass to vote against him.  If something had happened to Hillary in 2016 there's a decent chance Tim Kaine would have won.  Trump didn't win so much as Hillary lost.  The right had spent decades turning her into the boogeyman.

If Trump dies and the RNC decides Pence will be the Republican candidate I think the vast majority of  leftists will remain motivated to vote for Biden because Pence is a  self-declared Christian,   opposed to abortion, and against   same-sex marriage.

[sherr]

Another question, would Pence be less of a motivating factor for the left?  Trump has got millions of people who would crawl across broken glass to vote against him.  If something had happened to Hillary in 2016 there's a decent chance Tim Kaine would have won.  Trump didn't win so much as Hillary lost.  The right had spent decades turning her into the boogeyman.

If Trump dies and the RNC decides Pence will be the Republican candidate I think the vast majority of  leftists will remain motivated to vote for Biden because Pence is a  self-declared Christian,   opposed to abortion, and against   same-sex marriage.

The vast majority of "leftists" in this country are self-declared Christians. But they tend to oppose big-government rejecting their religions freedom and trying to shove the right-winger version of Christianity down everyone else's throats, so yeah I'll give you the other two.

[nereo]

Another question, would Pence be less of a motivating factor for the left?  Trump has got millions of people who would crawl across broken glass to vote against him.  If something had happened to Hillary in 2016 there's a decent chance Tim Kaine would have won.  Trump didn't win so much as Hillary lost.  The right had spent decades turning her into the boogeyman.

If Trump dies and the RNC decides Pence will be the Republican candidate I think the vast majority of  leftists will remain motivated to vote for Biden because Pence is a  self-declared Christian,   opposed to abortion, and against   same-sex marriage.

Don't forget Pence's treatment of women, his support of firearms on school property, his xenophobic and racist approach to immigration and his consistent willingness to lie directly to the American public, most often in a laughable defense for something Donald Trump most definitely did or said.

Obama, Cinton, Carter were all Christians.  Biden is a devout Catholic ( as was Kennedy) Not sure why you tossed 'Christian" in there, unless you meant to say "he's an evangelical extremist".

ETA:  How could I forget his opposition to the ACA and his rejection to raising the federal minimum wage or his rejection of anthropogenic climate change.  Pence is pretty much on extreme opposite sides of every major issue of the democratic platform.

[dougules]

Another question, would Pence be less of a motivating factor for the left?  Trump has got millions of people who would crawl across broken glass to vote against him.  If something had happened to Hillary in 2016 there's a decent chance Tim Kaine would have won.  Trump didn't win so much as Hillary lost.  The right had spent decades turning her into the boogeyman.

If Trump dies and the RNC decides Pence will be the Republican candidate I think the vast majority of  leftists will remain motivated to vote for Biden because Pence is a  self-declared Christian,   opposed to abortion, and against   same-sex marriage.

Don't forget Pence's treatment of women, his support of firearms on school property, his xenophobic and racist approach to immigration and his consistent willingness to lie directly to the American public, most often in a laughable defense for something Donald Trump most definitely did or said.

Obama, Cinton, Carter were all Christians.  Biden is a devout Catholic ( as was Kennedy) Not sure why you tossed 'Christian" in there, unless you meant to say "he's an evangelical extremist".

ETA:  How could I forget his opposition to the ACA and his rejection to raising the federal minimum wage or his rejection of anthropogenic climate change.  Pence is pretty much on extreme opposite sides of every major issue of the democratic platform.

I totally agree but Pence doesn't seem to have quite the same level of openly attacking the basic rule of law or verifiable really.  Even more he's not the big bombastic bully that is constantly drawing attention to his insanity.  I imagine that liberals who are less plugged in to politics probably don't know much about Pence.  I doubt there are many people that aren't familiar with what Trump is about.  He is a very strong motivating factor for less political liberals to make sure they vote.  Pence is a wet noodle that might be make it easier for less motivated liberals to not make the effort to vote.

[brandon1827]

Another question, would Pence be less of a motivating factor for the left?  Trump has got millions of people who would crawl across broken glass to vote against him.  If something had happened to Hillary in 2016 there's a decent chance Tim Kaine would have won.  Trump didn't win so much as Hillary lost.  The right had spent decades turning her into the boogeyman.

If Trump dies and the RNC decides Pence will be the Republican candidate I think the vast majority of  leftists will remain motivated to vote for Biden because Pence is a  self-declared Christian,   opposed to abortion, and against   same-sex marriage.

Don't forget Pence's treatment of women, his support of firearms on school property, his xenophobic and racist approach to immigration and his consistent willingness to lie directly to the American public, most often in a laughable defense for something Donald Trump most definitely did or said.

Obama, Cinton, Carter were all Christians.  Biden is a devout Catholic ( as was Kennedy) Not sure why you tossed 'Christian" in there, unless you meant to say "he's an evangelical extremist".

ETA:  How could I forget his opposition to the ACA and his rejection to raising the federal minimum wage or his rejection of anthropogenic climate change.  Pence is pretty much on extreme opposite sides of every major issue of the democratic platform.

I totally agree but Pence doesn't seem to have quite the same level of openly attacking the basic rule of law or verifiable really.  Even more he's not the big bombastic bully that is constantly drawing attention to his insanity.  I imagine that liberals who are less plugged in to politics probably don't know much about Pence.  I doubt there are many people that aren't familiar with what Trump is about.  He is a very strong motivating factor for less political liberals to make sure they vote.  Pence is a wet noodle that might be make it easier for less motivated liberals to not make the effort to vote.

No...but he stood idly by and watched...and in many cases assisted...Trump's assault on Democracy. With the SC vacancy, his association with all things Trump, and his apparent lack of a spine and extreme views, there is plenty there that would motivate liberals to turn out and vote against him

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Another question, would Pence be less of a motivating factor for the left?  Trump has got millions of people who would crawl across broken glass to vote against him.  If something had happened to Hillary in 2016 there's a decent chance Tim Kaine would have won.  Trump didn't win so much as Hillary lost.  The right had spent decades turning her into the boogeyman.

If Trump dies and the RNC decides Pence will be the Republican candidate I think the vast majority of  leftists will remain motivated to vote for Biden because Pence is a  self-declared Christian,   opposed to abortion, and against   same-sex marriage.

Don't forget Pence's treatment of women, his support of firearms on school property, his xenophobic and racist approach to immigration and his consistent willingness to lie directly to the American public, most often in a laughable defense for something Donald Trump most definitely did or said.

Obama, Cinton, Carter were all Christians.  Biden is a devout Catholic ( as was Kennedy) Not sure why you tossed 'Christian" in there, unless you meant to say "he's an evangelical extremist".

ETA:  How could I forget his opposition to the ACA and his rejection to raising the federal minimum wage or his rejection of anthropogenic climate change.  Pence is pretty much on extreme opposite sides of every major issue of the democratic platform.

I totally agree but Pence doesn't seem to have quite the same level of openly attacking the basic rule of law or verifiable really.  Even more he's not the big bombastic bully that is constantly drawing attention to his insanity.  I imagine that liberals who are less plugged in to politics probably don't know much about Pence.  I doubt there are many people that aren't familiar with what Trump is about.  He is a very strong motivating factor for less political liberals to make sure they vote.  Pence is a wet noodle that might be make it easier for less motivated liberals to not make the effort to vote.

No...but he stood idly by and watched...and in many cases assisted...Trump's assault on Democracy. With the SC vacancy, his association with all things Trump, and his apparent lack of a spine and extreme views, there is plenty there that would motivate liberals to turn out and vote against him

I would hazard to guess that any center left votes that Pence gains would be more than offset by center right Trump supporters that would switch to Biden or not vote.  The experienced, recognizable Biden stacks up very well against to Pence who, even after four years, has left either no impression or one of needing Trump to tell him what to do.

It will be worth watching the debate with Kamala Harris October 7th!  Pence is sooooooo boring to listen to, at best a very watered-down Trump; I think Kamala will shine brightly.   

[Roadrunner53]

Yes indeed, Pence is beyond boring and Kamala will be a rock star on October 7th!

[middo]

Can I change my vote?

In the poll?  Not possible.  But you are welcome to declare your vote change here...

Yes you can. There's a "Remove Vote" button to the left under the poll. Click that then you'll be able to vote with your new choice.

i stand corrected!  Thanks for letting me know.

It was a tongue in cheek comment about Trump getting Covid-19.  I still think Biden will win.

[talltexan]

In 2016, Pence could be seen as a mainstream Republican who (reluctantly) accepted the ascendancy of Donald Trump. Since he re-joined the campaign following the Access!Hollywood tape, however, he's been a reliable toady.

If you've made it to a post-Trump world, and you're contemplating his leadership, you would probably see all the same policies, and should ask yourself what clue there is that Pence could reduce the scandals that seem all too frequent from the people all around Trump?

[bacchi]

I'm changing my vote. The "trucker poll" shows Trump leading significantly.

But I can report with full confidence that a recent family road trip took us through the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and in all three states the “Biden-Harris” signs were running a distant third behind “Trump-Pence” and “Sweet Corn For Sale.”
[...]
With less than 30 days until the election, the general consensus from callers to my radio show is that Trump signs, outnumber Biden signs, by about 25 to 1 in all 50 states.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

(This is not an Onion article.)

[nereo]

I'm changing my vote. The "trucker poll" shows Trump leading significantly.

But I can report with full confidence that a recent family road trip took us through the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and in all three states the “Biden-Harris” signs were running a distant third behind “Trump-Pence” and “Sweet Corn For Sale.”
[...]
With less than 30 days until the election, the general consensus from callers to my radio show is that Trump signs, outnumber Biden signs, by about 25 to 1 in all 50 states.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

(This is not an Onion article.)

There's a guy not far from me that has at least 30 Trump/Pence signs in his front yard.  Does he get to vote 30x times?

No wonder so many people can't conceive of a Trump losing the popular vote...

[brandon1827]

Yes...they seem to be living in the Fox News/OAN bubble...and as such, can't conceive of a way Trump could lose outside of "fraud"

[nereo]

Yes...they seem to be living in the Fox News/OAN bubble...and as such, can't conceive of a way Trump could lose outside of "fraud"

This is actually a concern of mine.  I live in an area that voted for Trump by almost 20 points in 2016.  Like in the article linked upthread Trump signs outnumber Biden by a huge margin (though part of this is certainly because Biden supporters have been bullied). It's no uncommon to pass pickups with enormous trump flags in the back emblazoned with (often crude or offensive) Trump slogans. Even though Biden supporters are ~2 of every 5 adults (based on results and local polls), they are almost undetectable among the sea of red around here. Among my social network here we often joke that we meet like an AA group.

Several times I've heard Trump supporters mention how there's "no way" Trump can lose and cite the apparent overwhelming support based on lawn signs, red hats and certain news outlets.  One even said to me "I ain't seen one damn Biden hat in my life!" as proof positive.

Should Trump lose their world view won't match with the election results. I can understand how 'fraud' will be an easier explanation for them than 'their guy' is in fact overwhelmingly disliked by a majority of US citizens.

[Montecarlo]

The recent commentary here is pretty breathtaking.

MA is forecast to go to Biden by over 30 points.  Do you think the yardsigns out there accurately represent that?

Trump Crazies are going off about fraud, it's true and it's shameful, but are there anymore of them than Clinton supports who still allege that Trump stole the election?

Complete hyperpartisan blindness going on here...

Also, for the record, there is NO chance Trump will win.  538 artificially inflated their uncertainty factors this year, and there are vastly fewer undecideds than in 2016.  I think we're going to see Biden win a historical landslide, Reagan type landslide

[sherr]

Trump Crazies are going off about fraud, it's true and it's shameful, but are there anymore of them than Clinton supports who still allege that Trump stole the election?

Complete hyperpartisan blindness going on here...

I've never heard a Clinton supporter actually believe that the election results are illegitimate, they are just complaining about the inherent unfairness of the system. That Trump could tilt the nation so far in the direction opposed to what the majority of voters wanted indicates that there is a problem. And yes, I believe there are far more Republicans who believe the Republican lies about voter fraud then there are Democrats who believe that the 2016 election results were illegitimate.

[Davnasty]

Trump Crazies are going off about fraud, it's true and it's shameful, but are there anymore of them than Clinton supports who still allege that Trump stole the election?

Oh my goodness yes. I'm not sure I've ever heard anyone of importance claim the 2016 election was "stolen". Influenced by foreign adversaries, yes, but not rigged or stolen.

Serious question, would you be willing to share some of your primary sources of information?

[nereo]

\
Trump Crazies are going off about fraud, it's true and it's shameful, but are there anymore of them than Clinton supports who still allege that Trump stole the election?

Complete hyperpartisan blindness going on here...
 

I can't say I've ever actually heard a Democrat say that 'Trump stole the election'.  The only people I hear making that claim are Republicans who claim (without evidence) that Democrats think Trump stole the election.

Most everyone I know conceeds that Trump managed to win election via a narrow path through the electoral college.  Completely legitimate, if incredibily frustrating

Also, for the record, there is NO chance Trump will win.  538 artificially inflated their uncertainty factors this year, and there are vastly fewer undecideds than in 2016.  I think we're going to see Biden win a historical landslide, Reagan type landslide

Man, for someone who's forum name is 'Montecarlo" it's a bit odd you would give literally ZERO percent chance that Trump will win.
That's either hyperbole or a gross malpractice of both statistics and political history.  While improbable at this point in time I could come up with several plausable scenarios where Trump gets re-elected.  (hint:  Joe BIden is 77 after all...)

[sherr]

Does he get to vote 30x times?

Also "30x times" is going to go on my "irritating phrases to pull out when being facetious" list along with "ATM machine" and "$5 dollars". ;)

[wenchsenior]

The recent commentary here is pretty breathtaking.

MA is forecast to go to Biden by over 30 points.  Do you think the yardsigns out there accurately represent that?

Trump Crazies are going off about fraud, it's true and it's shameful, but are there anymore of them than Clinton supports who still allege that Trump stole the election?

Complete hyperpartisan blindness going on here...

Also, for the record, there is NO chance Trump will win.  538 artificially inflated their uncertainty factors this year, and there are vastly fewer undecideds than in 2016.  I think we're going to see Biden win a historical landslide, Reagan type landslide

Did the fivethirtyeight crew discuss this on their site at some point? I'm interested to hear their reasoning for adjusting their models. Link, please?

[sherr]

The recent commentary here is pretty breathtaking.

MA is forecast to go to Biden by over 30 points.  Do you think the yardsigns out there accurately represent that?

Trump Crazies are going off about fraud, it's true and it's shameful, but are there anymore of them than Clinton supports who still allege that Trump stole the election?

Complete hyperpartisan blindness going on here...

Also, for the record, there is NO chance Trump will win.  538 artificially inflated their uncertainty factors this year, and there are vastly fewer undecideds than in 2016.  I think we're going to see Biden win a historical landslide, Reagan type landslide

Did the fivethirtyeight crew discuss this on their site at some point? I'm interested to hear their reasoning for adjusting their models. Link, please?

Largely COVID-19-related.

• In forecasting how much the polls could change, we now account for more components related to uncertainty. Two of these components include estimating i) economic uncertainty and ii) the overall volume of important news, both of which are very high under COVID-19. These offset other trends — such as greater polarization — that would lead to less uncertainty.
• We attempt to account for additional uncertainty in Election Day results because turnout will potentially be less predictable given the pandemic.

[wenchsenior]

The recent commentary here is pretty breathtaking.

MA is forecast to go to Biden by over 30 points.  Do you think the yardsigns out there accurately represent that?

Trump Crazies are going off about fraud, it's true and it's shameful, but are there anymore of them than Clinton supports who still allege that Trump stole the election?

Complete hyperpartisan blindness going on here...

Also, for the record, there is NO chance Trump will win.  538 artificially inflated their uncertainty factors this year, and there are vastly fewer undecideds than in 2016.  I think we're going to see Biden win a historical landslide, Reagan type landslide

Did the fivethirtyeight crew discuss this on their site at some point? I'm interested to hear their reasoning for adjusting their models. Link, please?

Largely COVID-19-related.

• In forecasting how much the polls could change, we now account for more components related to uncertainty. Two of these components include estimating i) economic uncertainty and ii) the overall volume of important news, both of which are very high under COVID-19. These offset other trends — such as greater polarization — that would lead to less uncertainty.
• We attempt to account for additional uncertainty in Election Day results because turnout will potentially be less predictable given the pandemic.
• We allow COVID-19 to be a factor in determining covariance. That is to say, states that have had high rates of COVID deaths and cases (such as Arizona and New York, which otherwise don’t have that much in common politically) could have correlated outcomes. Likewise, we also consider covariance based on a state’s anticipated rate of mail voting.

Thanks!

[nereo]

Does he get to vote 30x times?

Also "30x times" is going to go on my "irritating phrases to pull out when being facetious" list along with "ATM machine" and "$5 dollars". ;)

Lol - I thought something similar right after I clicked pay but was too lazy to change it

[Montecarlo]

Largely COVID-19-related.

• In forecasting how much the polls could change, we now account for more components related to uncertainty. Two of these components include estimating i) economic uncertainty and ii) the overall volume of important news, both of which are very high under COVID-19. These offset other trends — such as greater polarization — that would lead to less uncertainty.
• We attempt to account for additional uncertainty in Election Day results because turnout will potentially be less predictable given the pandemic.

Thanks, this was exactly what I was referring to

[Montecarlo]

Five minutes of googling about Trump stole the election:

BBC and Guardian investigative reporter: https://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/
Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2016/12/16/the-2016-election-was-stolen-got-a-nicer-way-to-say-that/
HRC heavily implies it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hillary-clinton-trump-is-an-illegitimate-president/2019/09/26/29195d5a-e099-11e9-b199-f638bf2c340f_story.html

HRC:

And so I know that he knows that this wasn’t on the level. I don’t know that we’ll ever know what happened.

Even if "stolen" is too strong a word, there was definitely an attempt to discredit the results with the Russia investigation.  (I'm not looking to argue whether or not that's fair or legitimate, just stating that it happened)

[Montecarlo]

Also, for the record, there is NO chance Trump will win.  538 artificially inflated their uncertainty factors this year, and there are vastly fewer undecideds than in 2016.  I think we're going to see Biden win a historical landslide, Reagan type landslide

Man, for someone who's forum name is 'Montecarlo" it's a bit odd you would give literally ZERO percent chance that Trump will win.
That's either hyperbole or a gross malpractice of both statistics and political history.  While improbable at this point in time I could come up with several plausable scenarios where Trump gets re-elected.  (hint:  Joe BIden is 77 after all...)

Ha, true, the origin of my screenname refers to monte carlo simulations.  But "NO chance" is rhetorically more interesting than "I think the odds of a Trump win are vastly overstated, and even after accounting for life expectancy actuarial tables, one can infer..." ZZZZZZZZ

[partgypsy]

I disagree the battleground states like florida, nc, Mich fan there is no slam dunks for biden or trump is in lead. At last time I looked. Given all the variables good ng on, including simply the ability to vote and have it counted, I do not see a landslide. It would be nice but I wouldn't count on it.

[Davnasty]

Five minutes of googling about Trump stole the election:

BBC and Guardian investigative reporter: https://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/
Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2016/12/16/the-2016-election-was-stolen-got-a-nicer-way-to-say-that/
HRC heavily implies it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hillary-clinton-trump-is-an-illegitimate-president/2019/09/26/29195d5a-e099-11e9-b199-f638bf2c340f_story.html

HRC:

And so I know that he knows that this wasn’t on the level. I don’t know that we’ll ever know what happened.

Even if "stolen" is too strong a word, there was definitely an attempt to discredit the results with the Russia investigation.  (I'm not looking to argue whether or not that's fair or legitimate, just stating that it happened)

Well I'd say having evidence and legitimate claims on your side makes a pretty big difference, but even if we ignore that for a minute, 43% of Republican leaning Americans believe voter fraud has been a major problem and another 31% a minor problem according to this Pew Research poll. That's based on accusations Trump has pulled out of thin air.

A few articles with click-bait titles is not equivalent to that.

https://www.journalism.org/2020/09/16/political-divides-conspiracy-theories-and-divergent-news-sources-heading-into-2020-election/?utm_content=buffer4f170&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Fortunately some Republican politicians have grown a bit of a spine over this issue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdYx5Fm80Oc

[sui generis]

I disagree the battleground states like florida, nc, Mich fan there is no slam dunks for biden or trump is in lead. At last time I looked. Given all the variables good ng on, including simply the ability to vote and have it counted, I do not see a landslide. It would be nice but I wouldn't count on it.

Agree with this. Shenanigans in NC are already at red alert levels, ballot rejections are in the stratosphere.  On a briefing call I was on with NC Dems, they projected that if mail ballot rejections are at the rate they were in the March primaries, it's gonna be the equivalent of 15x Obama's 2008 margin of victory in the state (and even moreso Cooper's 2016 margin of victory) for the number of ballots that will be rejected.  They are working on helping voters cure them, but even that is beset by problems and the Republicans on the state BOE resigned so they could claim in advance that there are ditry tricks and fraud happening there.

I'm more confident about Michigan.  Their August primary had a low ballot rejection rate. And they don't have the history of suppression that NC does.

And FL....Well, my motto is "Never trust FL."  I don't have any tattoos.  I'm not really a fan. But, I'm considering having that tattooed somewhere prominent.

[Montecarlo]

Well I'd say having evidence and legitimate claims on your side makes a pretty big difference, but even if we ignore that for a minute, 43% of Republican leaning Americans believe voter fraud has been a major problem and another 31% a minor problem according to this Pew Research poll. That's based on accusations Trump has pulled out of thin air.

A few articles with click-bait titles is not equivalent to that.

https://www.journalism.org/2020/09/16/political-divides-conspiracy-theories-and-divergent-news-sources-heading-into-2020-election/?utm_content=buffer4f170&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Fortunately some Republican politicians have grown a bit of a spine over this issue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdYx5Fm80Oc

I was asked to provide examples so I did.  But apparently they are rejected because of the headline writer?

All news organizations run clickbait titles.  But you dismiss these as if they’re from buzzfeed.  HRC flat out calls Trump an illegitimate president.  These aren’t fringe publications and pundits I’m referring to.

[nereo]

Well I'd say having evidence and legitimate claims on your side makes a pretty big difference, but even if we ignore that for a minute, 43% of Republican leaning Americans believe voter fraud has been a major problem and another 31% a minor problem according to this Pew Research poll. That's based on accusations Trump has pulled out of thin air.

A few articles with click-bait titles is not equivalent to that.

https://www.journalism.org/2020/09/16/political-divides-conspiracy-theories-and-divergent-news-sources-heading-into-2020-election/?utm_content=buffer4f170&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Fortunately some Republican politicians have grown a bit of a spine over this issue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdYx5Fm80Oc

I was asked to provide examples so I did.  But apparently they are rejected because of the headline writer?

All news organizations run clickbait titles.  But you dismiss these as if they’re from buzzfeed.  HRC flat out calls Trump an illegitimate president.  These aren’t fringe publications and pundits I’m referring to.

Yes, you’ve found some headlines, and yes, some democrats have used the phrase ‘stolen election’.  However even the sources you linked don’t seem to make the argument you suggest they do. Two are from immediately after the election.
From the Tom Toles article you linked:

And yet, [Clinton] doesn’t get to be president because of a rule that gives Trump the White House because he won a tiny handful more votes in a few states. Yes, rules are rules.

That’s key to what I and other posters have been saying. Trump is president via his EC win, which means he is president.

Finding a few articles which use the phrase isn’t sufficient to support your argument that [most] (or even a large percentage) of Dems believe that Trump stole the election. Far more relevant support would be evidence about how different groups actually view legitimacy of elections, as Davnasty provided.

You’ve also made a rather telling note by implying the Russia investigation was done for the purposes of discrediting Trump. Your timeline is completely off and your clear implication is that Dems use the investigation is clear, despite your insistence that you “aren’t looking to argue whether it’s fair or legitimate’.

Words matter, and while saying there’s ZERO CHANCE might be (as you put it) rhetorically more interesting, it’s also categorically incorrect.

[Shane]

If Biden manages to pull off a win in November, I'll be pleasantly surprised, but I think it's pretty unlikely. Some of the comments in this thread seem really out of touch to me. In 2016, Trump didn't "manage to win election via a narrow path through the electoral college." He won 30 states to Clinton's 20. Trump got 306 electoral votes to Clinton's 232. That doesn't seem very "narrow" to me. The fact that my former state of HI, and other tiny states like MA will, undoubtedly, vote overwhelmingly against Trump means nothing. Like in 2016, Biden may in fact win the popular vote, but the fact remains that the majority of the country supports Trump and, literally, no one I know is enthusiastic about Biden. In the city where I live now Biden will most likely win, but all you need to do is go a mile or two out into the suburbs to be in Trump country. In my urban neighborhood there are a good number of Biden/Harris signs. Neighbors who I know support Trump have put American flags out instead of Trump signs, which probably wouldn't make it through the night, anyway, and would greatly increase the chances of their properties being vandalized. As far as I'm concerned, polls don't mean shit in the current environment. People in my liberal neighborhood who are planning on voting for Trump literally whisper when they talk about their intentions, because they're afraid of what people will think.

[OtherJen]

I disagree the battleground states like florida, nc, Mich fan there is no slam dunks for biden or trump is in lead. At last time I looked. Given all the variables good ng on, including simply the ability to vote and have it counted, I do not see a landslide. It would be nice but I wouldn't count on it.

Agree with this. Shenanigans in NC are already at red alert levels, ballot rejections are in the stratosphere.  On a briefing call I was on with NC Dems, they projected that if mail ballot rejections are at the rate they were in the March primaries, it's gonna be the equivalent of 15x Obama's 2008 margin of victory in the state (and even moreso Cooper's 2016 margin of victory) for the number of ballots that will be rejected.  They are working on helping voters cure them, but even that is beset by problems and the Republicans on the state BOE resigned so they could claim in advance that there are ditry tricks and fraud happening there.

I'm more confident about Michigan.  Their August primary had a low ballot rejection rate. And they don't have the history of suppression that NC does.

And FL....Well, my motto is "Never trust FL."  I don't have any tattoos.  I'm not really a fan. But, I'm considering having that tattooed somewhere prominent.

I live in Michigan, volunteer in an organization with a focus on voter rights/education, and work as a poll worker. We're in better shape for this election than I can ever remember from previous years. I feel lucky to live here this year. Even Detroit, which had major problems in 2016, is taking full advantage of our new constitutionally mandated election laws and has installed ballot drop boxes and satellite clerks' offices all over the city. They've also hired a ton of poll workers.

From the conversations I've had with local clerks, they're anticipating a major turnout but have implemented good protocols. Absentee ballots started going out on Sept. 24, and there are extended clerk office hours scheduled through Election Day.