Poll

Who do you think will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Donald Trump
92 (33.6%)
Joe Biden
164 (59.9%)
3rd-Party Candidate or Black Swan Event (e.g., Trump or Biden dies)
18 (6.6%)

Total Members Voted: 274

Author Topic: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?  (Read 28787 times)

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #550 on: September 10, 2020, 09:37:00 AM »
Minnesota is actually in play this year.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/09/09/npr-trumps-rural-support-puts-democratic-bulwark-minnesota-in-play?fbclid=IwAR1D7LJYwU12UPEdJjqGQ4KzxqG7ai9_YuEtJQYvd6I2ToFT6wOr8KYrMwg

Lots and lots of rural Minnesotans who actually believe that "Minneapolis is burning down" in the aftermath of the George Floyd murder are gonna vote for Trump. At least in this state, it's very possible the riots will help the conservatives.

When you see race riots, violent protesting, and looting it's very important to vote for more of the same if you want things to change.

Now you are thinking like a Trump voter!
Only Trump can stop the rioting that started when Trump was president.

I think these flippant replies misunderstand what Republicans are telling themselves. Their guys will run government like a business. Democrats will run government like a city. And look at how terrible cities are, apparently. The race is tightening partly because of this rioting.

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #551 on: September 10, 2020, 10:04:10 AM »
Minnesota is actually in play this year.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/09/09/npr-trumps-rural-support-puts-democratic-bulwark-minnesota-in-play?fbclid=IwAR1D7LJYwU12UPEdJjqGQ4KzxqG7ai9_YuEtJQYvd6I2ToFT6wOr8KYrMwg

Lots and lots of rural Minnesotans who actually believe that "Minneapolis is burning down" in the aftermath of the George Floyd murder are gonna vote for Trump. At least in this state, it's very possible the riots will help the conservatives.

When you see race riots, violent protesting, and looting it's very important to vote for more of the same if you want things to change.

Now you are thinking like a Trump voter!
Only Trump can stop the rioting that started when Trump was president.

I think these flippant replies misunderstand what Republicans are telling themselves. Their guys will run government like a business. Democrats will run government like a city. And look at how terrible cities are, apparently. The race is tightening partly because of this rioting.

I can kinda understand the idea of wanting to run a country like a business. . . but wouldn't you want to run it like a successful business?  Because Trump is a shockingly unsuccessful businessman, and all evidence points to him bringing that track record to his time as president.

Trump's 'failed businessman' action is also a large part of the reason why the US is having race riots right now.  The Republican idea that there are no consequences for electing an openly racist president - and that subsequent racial problems have nothing to do with the Racist in Chief is one that I do have difficulty understanding.  No businessman worth a damn would behave in the manner the president has without experiencing some serious backlash from the public.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #552 on: September 10, 2020, 10:11:29 AM »
I had a job in which I interacted with small business people all of the time. They're not concerned about Trump's business failures in his private life. They were very concerned about government impeding their progress, particularly during the Obama years.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #553 on: September 10, 2020, 11:35:53 AM »
Minnesota is actually in play this year.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/09/09/npr-trumps-rural-support-puts-democratic-bulwark-minnesota-in-play?fbclid=IwAR1D7LJYwU12UPEdJjqGQ4KzxqG7ai9_YuEtJQYvd6I2ToFT6wOr8KYrMwg

Lots and lots of rural Minnesotans who actually believe that "Minneapolis is burning down" in the aftermath of the George Floyd murder are gonna vote for Trump. At least in this state, it's very possible the riots will help the conservatives.

When you see race riots, violent protesting, and looting it's very important to vote for more of the same if you want things to change.

Now you are thinking like a Trump voter!
Only Trump can stop the rioting that started when Trump was president.

I think these flippant replies misunderstand what Republicans are telling themselves. Their guys will run government like a business. Democrats will run government like a city. And look at how terrible cities are, apparently. The race is tightening partly because of this rioting.

Point taken.

caracarn

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #554 on: September 10, 2020, 11:52:06 AM »
So follow the money is a good point, especially in elections. 

11-15 states are currently in play with significant ad reservations by the candidates.  This is double what is considered high in typical years.  I still feel this bodes much better for Biden than for Trump because Biden now has more money and therefore can force Trump to spend money in states he would not normally that are close to try to hold on and therefore eliminate his ability to spend in states that he might have a shot at swinging. 

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #555 on: September 10, 2020, 11:59:00 AM »
I had a job in which I interacted with small business people all of the time. They're not concerned about Trump's business failures in his private life. They were very concerned about government impeding their progress, particularly during the Obama years.

Will there be any small businesses left by November, let alone in 4 more years?  Without more stimulus, my impression is that many of them are giving up.  And it is possible that the US borrowing can't go on forever.  It would be fascinating to understand their rationale for trusting Trump for 4 more years.  The man who said that the pandemic would magically go away while privately acknowledging it would get worse.  How can you trust anything he says?  I guess the US will eventually get a vaccine, but Trump is particularly ill-suited to convince people to get vaccinated.  His base will ignore him (conspiracy theories are more convincing) and Democrats don't think he has a shred of credibility.

I would hope that regulations would have moved a bit further down their list of concerns for this election.

HBFIRE

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #556 on: September 10, 2020, 12:50:42 PM »


Will there be any small businesses left by November, let alone in 4 more years? 

Depends what the business is.  This pandemic has hit specific types.  Some small businesses are thriving.  Others that are hit have learned to adapt and have done well.  As a small business owner myself, the one thing you can count on is that nothing stays the same, you have to always be adapting.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 12:53:14 PM by HBFIRE »

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #557 on: September 10, 2020, 05:28:22 PM »
I had a job in which I interacted with small business people all of the time. They're not concerned about Trump's business failures in his private life. They were very concerned about government impeding their progress, particularly during the Obama years.

Will there be any small businesses left by November, let alone in 4 more years? 

Yes.

The three I know best have no intention of closing. At least two are highly likely to continue (customers pay, they keep working, etc); the other was iffy before and currently proceeding as well as before.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #558 on: September 10, 2020, 08:12:28 PM »
I had a job in which I interacted with small business people all of the time. They're not concerned about Trump's business failures in his private life. They were very concerned about government impeding their progress, particularly during the Obama years.

Will there be any small businesses left by November, let alone in 4 more years? 

Yes.

The three I know best have no intention of closing. At least two are highly likely to continue (customers pay, they keep working, etc); the other was iffy before and currently proceeding as well as before.

I was being intentionally hyperbolic, of course there will still be small businesses - https://www.pressreader.com/usa/houston-chronicle-sunday/20200906/282557315608270.  It's interesting to hear responses though.  I thought the missed payment indicator was an interesting statistic, from the article I linked -

Quote
“Thus far, the U.S. appears to have avoided the surge in COVID-19-related permanent business shutdowns that many feared at the pandemic’s onset, likely because the PPP and other policy support helped businesses survive the sharp pullback,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a recent report.

Still, the overall numbers mask some sharp variations by region. In the week before the survey, for example, 4.2 percent of small companies in the area of San Jose, Calif., and 3.8 percent in San Antonio said they had closed a location, while the nationwide figure was 1.3 percent.

Looking ahead to the next six months, it was businesses in Austin — a hub for the kind of nightlife that’s been curtailed by social distancing — that showed the highest levels of anxiety.

The survey found that only 3 percent of companies have missed a loan payment (excluding debts that have been forgiven or postponed) since March 13 — the date when President Donald Trump declared a national emergency and the one chosen by the Census Bureau as a starting point.

But another survey question that expanded the net to include other kinds of scheduled payments — such as rent, utilities or payrolls — revealed more widespread problems. Almost 10 percent of companies nationwide said they had missed at least one payment, and in New York City, the figure was nearly twice that level.

marty998

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #559 on: September 12, 2020, 10:44:52 PM »
I had a job in which I interacted with small business people all of the time. They're not concerned about Trump's business failures in his private life. They were very concerned about government impeding their progress, particularly during the Obama years.

And what did Obama do in eight years to actually impede them?

It’s a long time to spend worrying about non-existant monsters under the bed. Perhaps instead of spending all that energy being concerned, they could have spent much of those eight years making the most of what were reasonably good economic conditions.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 10:47:40 PM by marty998 »

MasterStache

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #560 on: September 13, 2020, 06:36:20 AM »
I had a job in which I interacted with small business people all of the time. They're not concerned about Trump's business failures in his private life. They were very concerned about government impeding their progress, particularly during the Obama years.

And what did Obama do in eight years to actually impede them?

It’s a long time to spend worrying about non-existant monsters under the bed. Perhaps instead of spending all that energy being concerned, they could have spent much of those eight years making the most of what were reasonably good economic conditions.
Whatever Facebook, Twitter, Trump or Faux news talking heads tell them Obama did, he must have done it right?

MasterStache

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #561 on: September 13, 2020, 08:22:45 AM »
Not sure what to make of it, but Trump's campaign appears to be losing a bit of steam. Advertising is way down because of fund shortfalls. I've seen some indication (not sure how much faith to put into it though) that between Trump's continued disparaging of the military coupled with his admitting to lying to the public about Covid early on that Biden's lead may have grown a bit.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #562 on: September 13, 2020, 11:20:32 AM »
In a recent interview Biden was given a pre-recorded question that he was told was pre-recorded. He still started talking to the recording.

Recording: Hello my name is [name] -

Biden: Hi.

Recording: thank you for taking the time to answer my question -

Biden: Thank you for being here.

Where, Joe?!?!?! You're in your home; he's from the past!

Lol! That’s totally something I would do.

Ha! Me too.  (I have phone phobia re: regular calls and zoom/skype calls make me INCREDIBLY uncomfortable, even when it's friends and family).  I do fine and am very articulate during face-to-face conversations. 

rocketpj

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #563 on: September 13, 2020, 11:26:46 AM »
Biden will definitely win the popular vote.  It remains to be seen whether the sustained campaign of vote suppression, intimidation and outright fraud - combined now with court stacking - will combine with the antiquated Electoral College to reappoint Trump as president.

Sid Hoffman

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #564 on: September 13, 2020, 11:47:48 PM »
Biden will definitely win the popular vote.  It remains to be seen whether the sustained campaign of vote suppression, intimidation and outright fraud - combined now with court stacking - will combine with the antiquated Electoral College to reappoint Trump as president.

It's funny to me seeing both extremists accusing the other side of being the one that commits fraud. Both the left and right wing extremists make wild claims about how their own team would of course never commit fraud, but that awful other team is committing fraud unchecked in order to steal the election.

The way I see it, if voter fraud really exists (and I don't believe it does on any statistically significant scale) it's going to cancel out on both sides. Right wing extremists might get a little boost from those infamous black helicopters and nameless federal agents but of course the left wing controls more metropolitan areas thus can naturally affect greater amounts of fraud, aided by the city and county officials running those left-leaning cities and counties. End result? It all cancels itself out anyway even if meaningfully measurable voter fraud really did exist.

Davnasty

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #565 on: September 14, 2020, 12:10:27 AM »
Biden will definitely win the popular vote.  It remains to be seen whether the sustained campaign of vote suppression, intimidation and outright fraud - combined now with court stacking - will combine with the antiquated Electoral College to reappoint Trump as president.

It's funny to me seeing both extremists accusing the other side of being the one that commits fraud. Both the left and right wing extremists make wild claims about how their own team would of course never commit fraud, but that awful other team is committing fraud unchecked in order to steal the election.

The way I see it, if voter fraud really exists (and I don't believe it does on any statistically significant scale) it's going to cancel out on both sides. Right wing extremists might get a little boost from those infamous black helicopters and nameless federal agents but of course the left wing controls more metropolitan areas thus can naturally affect greater amounts of fraud, aided by the city and county officials running those left-leaning cities and counties. End result? It all cancels itself out anyway even if meaningfully measurable voter fraud really did exist.

Fraud is not the issue to be concerned about from either side. Voter suppression however is very real as federal and state courts have agreed. A number of laws proposed by Republicans have been ruled as targeted attempts to suppress the votes of specific demographics which lean Democrat.

North Carolina has some good examples:

Quote
North Carolina

In 2013, the state House passed a bill that requires voters to show a photo ID issued by North Carolina, a passport, or a military identification card to begin in 2016. Out-of-state drivers licenses were to be accepted only if the voter registered within 90 days of the election, and university photo identification was not acceptable. In July 2016, a three-judge panel of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a trial court decision in a number of consolidated actions and struck down the law's photo ID requirement, finding that the new voting provisions targeted African Americans "with almost surgical precision," and that the legislators had acted with clear "discriminatory intent" in enacting strict election rules, shaping the rules based on data they received about African-American registration and voting patterns. On May 15, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to review the Appeals Court ruling.

Quote
In North Carolina, Republican lawmakers requested data on various voting practices, broken down by race. They then passed laws that restricted voting and registration many ways that disproportionately affected African Americans, including cutting back on early voting. In a 2016 appellate court case, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit struck down a law that removed the first week of early voting. The court held that the GOP used the data they gathered to remove the first week of early voting because more African American voters voted during that week, and African American voters were more likely to vote for Democrats. Between 2008 and 2012 in North Carolina, 70% of African American voters voted early. After cuts to early voting, African American turnout in early voting was down by 8.7% (around 66,000 votes) in North Carolina.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_suppression_in_the_United_States#Contemporary

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #566 on: September 14, 2020, 07:29:25 AM »
Biden will definitely win the popular vote.  It remains to be seen whether the sustained campaign of vote suppression, intimidation and outright fraud - combined now with court stacking - will combine with the antiquated Electoral College to reappoint Trump as president.

It's funny to me seeing both extremists accusing the other side of being the one that commits fraud. Both the left and right wing extremists make wild claims about how their own team would of course never commit fraud, but that awful other team is committing fraud unchecked in order to steal the election.

The way I see it, if voter fraud really exists (and I don't believe it does on any statistically significant scale) it's going to cancel out on both sides. Right wing extremists might get a little boost from those infamous black helicopters and nameless federal agents but of course the left wing controls more metropolitan areas thus can naturally affect greater amounts of fraud, aided by the city and county officials running those left-leaning cities and counties. End result? It all cancels itself out anyway even if meaningfully measurable voter fraud really did exist.

The aggregate amount of fraud--even if you maintain it's evenly divided--still contributes to a popular perception of how legitimate the incoming government is. Whether Trump or Biden wins, that popular perception will affect how he is treated by the minority party.

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #567 on: September 14, 2020, 08:10:10 AM »
Biden will definitely win the popular vote.  It remains to be seen whether the sustained campaign of vote suppression, intimidation and outright fraud - combined now with court stacking - will combine with the antiquated Electoral College to reappoint Trump as president.

It's funny to me seeing both extremists accusing the other side of being the one that commits fraud. Both the left and right wing extremists make wild claims about how their own team would of course never commit fraud, but that awful other team is committing fraud unchecked in order to steal the election.

The way I see it, if voter fraud really exists (and I don't believe it does on any statistically significant scale) it's going to cancel out on both sides. Right wing extremists might get a little boost from those infamous black helicopters and nameless federal agents but of course the left wing controls more metropolitan areas thus can naturally affect greater amounts of fraud, aided by the city and county officials running those left-leaning cities and counties. End result? It all cancels itself out anyway even if meaningfully measurable voter fraud really did exist.

Fraud is not the issue to be concerned about from either side. Voter suppression however is very real as federal and state courts have agreed. A number of laws proposed by Republicans have been ruled as targeted attempts to suppress the votes of specific demographics which lean Democrat.

North Carolina has some good examples:

Quote
North Carolina

In 2013, the state House passed a bill that requires voters to show a photo ID issued by North Carolina, a passport, or a military identification card to begin in 2016. Out-of-state drivers licenses were to be accepted only if the voter registered within 90 days of the election, and university photo identification was not acceptable. In July 2016, a three-judge panel of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a trial court decision in a number of consolidated actions and struck down the law's photo ID requirement, finding that the new voting provisions targeted African Americans "with almost surgical precision," and that the legislators had acted with clear "discriminatory intent" in enacting strict election rules, shaping the rules based on data they received about African-American registration and voting patterns. On May 15, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to review the Appeals Court ruling.

Quote
In North Carolina, Republican lawmakers requested data on various voting practices, broken down by race. They then passed laws that restricted voting and registration many ways that disproportionately affected African Americans, including cutting back on early voting. In a 2016 appellate court case, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit struck down a law that removed the first week of early voting. The court held that the GOP used the data they gathered to remove the first week of early voting because more African American voters voted during that week, and African American voters were more likely to vote for Democrats. Between 2008 and 2012 in North Carolina, 70% of African American voters voted early. After cuts to early voting, African American turnout in early voting was down by 8.7% (around 66,000 votes) in North Carolina.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_suppression_in_the_United_States#Contemporary

Let's also not forget that the only actual - if we ignore the lying conspiracy theories for a minute - recent example of mass voter fraud was committed by Republicans, also in NC. Or that the current Republican President told people at his rally to commit voter fraud, also in NC.

But yes, of course "both sides" are "the same" with an added dash of "extremists" thrown in to discredit them.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #568 on: September 14, 2020, 08:24:58 AM »
My only prediction is it will be close yet again, polls will prove to be meaningless and so will all the useless lawsuits by whoever loses for re-votes and voter fraud.

Abe

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #569 on: September 14, 2020, 08:53:33 AM »
Yeah, voter fraud nonsense is clearly just an excuse for Trump to eventually accept defeat without having to admit it to himself that he is a "loser". Irrespective of whether voter ID laws are seen as safeguarding voting, or a suppression tactic, the South has a long history of voter intimidation, which is itself a way of defrauding the electorate. How so? By suggesting that white supremacist leaders are legitimate authorities when a significant fraction of the electorate was prevented from voting. Poll taxes, state-sanctioned domestic terrorism, etc. This was done by Democrats until the parties switched places in maintaining the racial hegemony of the South, and for the last 50 years has been done by Republicans. Though the more egregious examples have stopped (poll taxes, terrorism), having the same party that promoted those tactics for half a century suddenly so concerned about the voting process is en face ridiculous.

caracarn

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #570 on: September 14, 2020, 02:38:50 PM »
My only prediction is it will be close yet again, polls will prove to be meaningless and so will all the useless lawsuits by whoever loses for re-votes and voter fraud.
National polling was accurate last time, and has been shown to be for decades.  It was the state polling that was "meaningless".  At some point with a large enough popular vote lead, which Biden had maintained at a steady level for going on six months now, you end up winning the electoral college too,  I've seen estimates that tipping point if about 5%.  If Biden can stay around 7-8% ahead as he has even with the margin of error it looks like he'll hit that 5% number.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #571 on: September 14, 2020, 03:00:40 PM »
My only prediction is it will be close yet again, polls will prove to be meaningless and so will all the useless lawsuits by whoever loses for re-votes and voter fraud.
National polling was accurate last time, and has been shown to be for decades.  It was the state polling that was "meaningless".  At some point with a large enough popular vote lead, which Biden had maintained at a steady level for going on six months now, you end up winning the electoral college too,  I've seen estimates that tipping point if about 5%.  If Biden can stay around 7-8% ahead as he has even with the margin of error it looks like he'll hit that 5% number.

In a podcast, Nate Silver spit out some chances of Biden taking +X% of the popular vote and losing the electoral college.

At +7%, Biden could still lose the electoral college. Among other tight races, it would take a lot more Californians voting for him -- likely to happen -- and Texas being a 51-49 loss. Improbable but possible.

If that happens, and the gap continues to grow in 2024, there will be a reckoning when the people get tired of the land winning.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #572 on: September 14, 2020, 04:13:20 PM »
My only prediction is it will be close yet again, polls will prove to be meaningless and so will all the useless lawsuits by whoever loses for re-votes and voter fraud.
National polling was accurate last time, and has been shown to be for decades.  It was the state polling that was "meaningless".  At some point with a large enough popular vote lead, which Biden had maintained at a steady level for going on six months now, you end up winning the electoral college too,  I've seen estimates that tipping point if about 5%.  If Biden can stay around 7-8% ahead as he has even with the margin of error it looks like he'll hit that 5% number.

In a podcast, Nate Silver spit out some chances of Biden taking +X% of the popular vote and losing the electoral college.

At +7%, Biden could still lose the electoral college. Among other tight races, it would take a lot more Californians voting for him -- likely to happen -- and Texas being a 51-49 loss. Improbable but possible.

If that happens, and the gap continues to grow in 2024, there will be a reckoning when the people get tired of the land winning.

My only prediction is it will be close yet again, polls will prove to be meaningless and so will all the useless lawsuits by whoever loses for re-votes and voter fraud.
National polling was accurate last time, and has been shown to be for decades.  It was the state polling that was "meaningless".  At some point with a large enough popular vote lead, which Biden had maintained at a steady level for going on six months now, you end up winning the electoral college too,  I've seen estimates that tipping point if about 5%.  If Biden can stay around 7-8% ahead as he has even with the margin of error it looks like he'll hit that 5% number.


a whole lot of if's- We use to say " If the Dog didnt stop to take a shit he would of caught the rabbit" - I'll stick with my prediction, not on who wins but as I mentioned above. After all its a prediction!

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #573 on: September 14, 2020, 04:15:50 PM »
In a podcast, Nate Silver spit out some chances of Biden taking +X% of the popular vote and losing the electoral college.

Currently at 11% chance per https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast

They've added a bunch of odds for stuff like that in the last week or so.  Presumably the odds are updated every time the forecast is (at least once daily, but sometimes more often depending on poll releases).

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #574 on: September 14, 2020, 05:10:22 PM »
Constantly saying “the polls were wrong in 2016!!” doesn’t make it true, but it does cement that myth in the American psyche. 

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #575 on: September 15, 2020, 05:17:57 PM »
I was 50-50 as to Trump's chance of winning.

Later my opinion changed and I predicted he will lose.

My opinion has not changed.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 05:21:13 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #576 on: September 15, 2020, 07:00:21 PM »
The increase in crime, or at least the coverage of it making it look like an increase if it actually is not, will propel Trump to win 2020.   He talks tough, even if he does nothing, and this convinces people he is not as weak as Biden would be.

Sad.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #577 on: September 15, 2020, 10:05:50 PM »
I voted for the 3rd party candidate - the Coronavirus, it'll write itself in.  It's bound to surge going in to November if not sooner.

Sounds like the Coronavirus held a rally for itself in Tulsa yesterday.  Millions of strands showed up and really spread their message! 

Quote
“I don’t mind going into the arena with the pandemic and the spikes because that’s the beautiful thing about our country—I know that I am fully taking on the risk of possibly encountering or being exposed [to the virus], but as an American, that’s my right,” one Trump supporter told CNN.

I'm liking my original vote for the Coronavirus (3rd Party) winning in 2020 more and more.  Trump is having rallies again (he just really can't help himself), people are getting back to 'life as normal', and trust in a Trump-promoted vaccine will make less people want it.  Not to mention that fall and winter are sure-fire winners for this virus surging.  Four more years of Coronavirus?


Abe

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #578 on: September 15, 2020, 10:19:46 PM »
I dunno, I feel that Coronavirus has a hard time staying on its "Kill all Humans" message lately, and is struggling to expand its base. Their choice for T-1000 as a running mate seems a bit too much of a throwback, and its relationships with Cyberdyne seem suspicious. On the other hand, it's really weathered the Woodard book revelations really well. Nothing to hide there!
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 10:21:54 PM by Abe »

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #579 on: September 15, 2020, 10:33:16 PM »
I dunno, I feel that Coronavirus has a hard time staying on its "Kill all Humans" message lately, and is struggling to expand its base. Their choice for T-1000 as a running mate seems a bit too much of a throwback, and its relationships with Cyberdyne seem suspicious. On the other hand, it's really weathered the Woodard book revelations really well. Nothing to hide there!

Thanks, I needed that.  I'm trying not to take this election too seriously!  I know what I want the outcome to be, but everyone is getting so invested in it that we are all going to lose.  We all still have options, no matter what happens.  I liked my really high standard of living circa 2011-2019, but it will still be high even if it declines for a while.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #580 on: September 16, 2020, 04:15:30 AM »
The increase in crime, or at least the coverage of it making it look like an increase if it actually is not, will propel Trump to win 2020.   He talks tough, even if he does nothing, and this convinces people he is not as weak as Biden would be.

Sad.

It blows my mind that enough people 1) believe there’s some huge increase in crime which 2) happenedwhile Trump was president and 3) conclude that Trump therefore should be given a second term.

Even if you buy into this “violent urban cities” dystopia, why would re-election Trump fix the problem?

MasterStache

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #581 on: September 16, 2020, 04:47:18 AM »
The increase in crime, or at least the coverage of it making it look like an increase if it actually is not, will propel Trump to win 2020.   He talks tough, even if he does nothing, and this convinces people he is not as weak as Biden would be.

Sad.

It blows my mind that enough people 1) believe there’s some huge increase in crime which 2) happenedwhile Trump was president and 3) conclude that Trump therefore should be given a second term.

Even if you buy into this “violent urban cities” dystopia, why would re-election Trump fix the problem?
Up is down, left is right and night is day. Crime increases under Trump and therefore Trump is the guy who can lower crime. Trumplican logic. 

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #582 on: September 16, 2020, 05:00:28 AM »
...or as conservative columnist Max Boot recently wrote:
Quote
Their theory seems to be that only a Trump second term can save us from the death and destruction of his first term.

ctuser1

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #583 on: September 16, 2020, 06:21:52 AM »
You guys are assuming that the unrest in the blue cities is considered a "problem".

The majority republicans would probably love to see the "blue" cities burn down.

Then there is a subset that show up with assault rifles with the hope of inciting a race war!!

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #584 on: September 16, 2020, 07:08:30 AM »
The increase in crime, or at least the coverage of it making it look like an increase if it actually is not, will propel Trump to win 2020.   He talks tough, even if he does nothing, and this convinces people he is not as weak as Biden would be.

Sad.

It blows my mind that enough people 1) believe there’s some huge increase in crime which 2) happenedwhile Trump was president and 3) conclude that Trump therefore should be given a second term.

Even if you buy into this “violent urban cities” dystopia, why would re-election Trump fix the problem?
Up is down, left is right and night is day. Crime increases under Trump and therefore Trump is the guy who can lower crime. Trumplican logic.

 . . . we've always been at war with Eastasia . . .

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #585 on: September 16, 2020, 07:42:48 AM »
You guys are assuming that the unrest in the blue cities is considered a "problem".

The majority republicans would probably love to see the "blue" cities burn down.

Then there is a subset that show up with assault rifles with the hope of inciting a race war!!

Two obvious problems with this:
  • Trump is indeed running on a campaign to ‘end the carnage in our urban cities’
  • So-called ‘carnage’ occurred under his watch

But to your broader point, I’ve been pondering this as well... I live in so-called “Trump Country” - a rural county that went for Trump by almost 20 points in 2016.  There’s a medium-sized city a couple hours away that’s deep blue, and the metropolitan population encompasses almost 50% of our state. It’s unquestionably the economic engine, generating something like 80% of the tax revenue.  Yet an oft-repeated sentiment is that people who live there don’t represent the “real” state.  The authentic person lives in ruby-red rural land with a below-median income.  If you’ve got a graduate degree (as we do) or moved here “from away” (as we did) or live in said city then you are not really representative of the state even though this describes a majority of the population.

Ironically these same people who vocally denigrate the urban/suburban areas are both resentful and envious of their lives, and in particular their economic success. 

It seems to me that the narrow, Trumpian view of who can be considered “American” is becoming a smaller and smaller fraction of the actual population.  The other day I listened as one Trump supporter told a protester that he didn’t consider “anyone who supports BLM to be an American”.  Pew’s latest polling suggests that’s about 40% of the entire population.  Toss out the urbanites (80%), first-generation (14%), non-Christian (26%) and LGBTQ (6%) and there share of this so-called “real Americans” is vanishingly small. 
Note: these percentages are not additive.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #586 on: September 16, 2020, 08:09:07 AM »
It's because the ultimate view of "American" under Trumpism is Trump-supporting. It is literally the only dimension for that movement.

dignam

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #587 on: September 16, 2020, 09:20:43 AM »
I'm actually a little nervous that Trump still has a shot at this.  His voting base is VERY well dug in, as he has created his own reality that dismisses any facts as "fake".  You cannot effectively argue against him, as he is not in touch with reality.  That is why Biden I think will not defeat him in a debate, which again, scares me.  It is impossible to debate against someone who will dismiss and ignore all facts.

This will be the first time I've ever voted for a democrat for the presidential election (note I did NOT vote for Trump in 2016, but voted 3rd party).  I'm not a Biden "fan" by any means, but we just cannot allow Trump to remain in office.

Being in a battleground state (Wisconsin) means getting constantly bombarded with ads.  His insanely illogical connections are present in ads that he endorses.  It's honestly laughable, although Biden's ads are only slightly less ridiculous. 

I've seen up close and personal some of the civil unrest in our state (in Madison a couple months ago, GF and I narrowly got out of the downtown area before police cars were on fire and storefronts were being destroyed; was there over the weekend and things are still boarded up).  This unrest is mostly unrelated to the presidency, as much as both sides want to politicize it.  It's a separate movement long in the making.

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #588 on: September 16, 2020, 10:30:14 AM »
I'm actually a little nervous that Trump still has a shot at this.  His voting base is VERY well dug in, as he has created his own reality that dismisses any facts as "fake".  You cannot effectively argue against him, as he is not in touch with reality.  That is why Biden I think will not defeat him in a debate, which again, scares me.  It is impossible to debate against someone who will dismiss and ignore all facts.

You cannot convince a Trumper to change their mind, it's simply impossible, for all the reasons you state. The debates and ads exist to convince the "Independents" and/or "undecideds", although for the life of me I can't understand how anyone could still be undecided in this election. But they exist, and hopefully they will be able to see through Trump's BS just as you do.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #589 on: September 16, 2020, 11:31:01 AM »
I'm actually a little nervous that Trump still has a shot at this.  His voting base is VERY well dug in, as he has created his own reality that dismisses any facts as "fake".  You cannot effectively argue against him, as he is not in touch with reality.  That is why Biden I think will not defeat him in a debate, which again, scares me.  It is impossible to debate against someone who will dismiss and ignore all facts.


See, I disagree with this.  In HS Civics class we even had an exercise where we had to debate someone who refuted established facts (a bit foreboding in hindsight). 
The purpose isn't to change the debater's mind - that will likely never happen - nor change the minds of his most enthusiastic supports (ditto).  But debates could display just how unhinged and extreme his positions are.

It's been pointed out countless times upthread, but Trump's most enthusiastic supporters (~30-something percent of likely voters) are simply not enough to win election.  Even with the super-saturation of political coverage there remains 6-7% of potential voters who haven't decided which way they will vote, plus quite a few "soft supporters" on both sides. Good debates rarely win much in the way of additional support, but a truly awful performance can cost votes. If Trump starts spouting conspiracy theories and other gibberish he might lose those undecideds and soft supporters.  That's Biden's real strategy - presenting himself as a sane, moderate voice.   Trump's approach has been to try and make Biden seem even less stable than he is (e.g. "Crazy Joe", 'Empty shell", "puppet of the extreme Left").  Biden could deflect those simply by appearing lucid and logical.  Neither is a given, but based on what we've seen so far I think Trump is likely to bring all sorts of crazy to a debate, and Biden's biggest challenge may be to keep his emotions in check and not punch him on live tv or let things drift into playground name-calling.

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #590 on: September 16, 2020, 12:17:27 PM »
It's been pointed out countless times upthread, but Trump's most enthusiastic supporters (~30-something percent of likely voters) are simply not enough to win election.  Even with the super-saturation of political coverage there remains 6-7% of potential voters who haven't decided which way they will vote, plus quite a few "soft supporters" on both sides. Good debates rarely win much in the way of additional support, but a truly awful performance can cost votes. If Trump starts spouting conspiracy theories and other gibberish he might lose those undecideds and soft supporters.  That's Biden's real strategy - presenting himself as a sane, moderate voice.   Trump's approach has been to try and make Biden seem even less stable than he is (e.g. "Crazy Joe", 'Empty shell", "puppet of the extreme Left").  Biden could deflect those simply by appearing lucid and logical.  Neither is a given, but based on what we've seen so far I think Trump is likely to bring all sorts of crazy to a debate, and Biden's biggest challenge may be to keep his emotions in check and not punch him on live tv or let things drift into playground name-calling.

Given Trump's performance at yesterday's Town Hall, it's a likely scenario. When you surround yourself with sycophants and yes-man, it's easy to become complacent. He may actually believe that there's a overwhelming "silent majority" supporting him and that California is in play.

Trump has a few weeks to fix this, if he recognizes the problem (haha) or if his staff convinces him it's a problem. Otherwise, it'll be the usual bombastic sayings and outright lies, which won't work well with non-Trump Cult members.

Samuel

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #591 on: September 16, 2020, 12:52:39 PM »
I'm actually a little nervous that Trump still has a shot at this.  His voting base is VERY well dug in, as he has created his own reality that dismisses any facts as "fake".  You cannot effectively argue against him, as he is not in touch with reality.  That is why Biden I think will not defeat him in a debate, which again, scares me.  It is impossible to debate against someone who will dismiss and ignore all facts.

You cannot convince a Trumper to change their mind, it's simply impossible, for all the reasons you state. The debates and ads exist to convince the "Independents" and/or "undecideds", although for the life of me I can't understand how anyone could still be undecided in this election. But they exist, and hopefully they will be able to see through Trump's BS just as you do.

Pretty sure any "undecideds" are undecided about whether they'll bother voting at all. Convincing someone who is leaning towards the other guy to not vote is nearly as good as convincing them to vote for you, but much easier.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #592 on: September 16, 2020, 12:56:42 PM »
I'm actually a little nervous that Trump still has a shot at this.  His voting base is VERY well dug in, as he has created his own reality that dismisses any facts as "fake".  You cannot effectively argue against him, as he is not in touch with reality.  That is why Biden I think will not defeat him in a debate, which again, scares me.  It is impossible to debate against someone who will dismiss and ignore all facts.

You cannot convince a Trumper to change their mind, it's simply impossible, for all the reasons you state. The debates and ads exist to convince the "Independents" and/or "undecideds", although for the life of me I can't understand how anyone could still be undecided in this election. But they exist, and hopefully they will be able to see through Trump's BS just as you do.

Pretty sure any "undecideds" are undecided about whether they'll bother voting at all. Convincing someone who is leaning towards the other guy to not vote is nearly as good as convincing them to vote for you, but much easier.
No... that's actually accounted for in the "likely voter" methodology of polling. 
Hard to believe to those of us who follow this race so closely, but there are a lot of people who definitely plan to vote but who have not made up their minds yet.  Many of these are people who have serious misgivings about the opposing candidate, but are also hesitant to support their 'own' candidate right now.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #593 on: September 16, 2020, 02:36:38 PM »
It wouldn't surprise me if many undecideds are horrified by many things Trump says and does, but are committed to the Pro-Life movement and are trying to come to grips with how high a price they are willing to pay--ethically, economically--to ensure that movement's victory.

What's frustrating is that this movement has made so much progress over the last twenty-nine years already, that Trump may not have even been necessary.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #594 on: September 16, 2020, 02:46:37 PM »
Agreed, the "progress" made by the pro-fetus crew is very frustrating.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #595 on: September 16, 2020, 02:47:13 PM »
It wouldn't surprise me if many undecideds are horrified by many things Trump says and does, but are committed to the Pro-Life movement and are trying to come to grips with how high a price they are willing to pay--ethically, economically--to ensure that movement's victory.

What's frustrating is that this movement has made so much progress over the last twenty-nine years already, that Trump may not have even been necessary.

Not to mention that since 1981, the sharpest decline in abortion rates occurred under Democratic Presidents - not under Republican Presidents. The rates especially dropped under the leadership of President Obama and continued to decline after he left office. Most everyone agrees the reason for this is because access to contraception is key in preventing pregnancies. And under the Affordable Care Act, contraception coverage became more widespread.

If they *really* cared about abortion...

Samuel

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #596 on: September 16, 2020, 02:55:40 PM »
I'm actually a little nervous that Trump still has a shot at this.  His voting base is VERY well dug in, as he has created his own reality that dismisses any facts as "fake".  You cannot effectively argue against him, as he is not in touch with reality.  That is why Biden I think will not defeat him in a debate, which again, scares me.  It is impossible to debate against someone who will dismiss and ignore all facts.

You cannot convince a Trumper to change their mind, it's simply impossible, for all the reasons you state. The debates and ads exist to convince the "Independents" and/or "undecideds", although for the life of me I can't understand how anyone could still be undecided in this election. But they exist, and hopefully they will be able to see through Trump's BS just as you do.

Pretty sure any "undecideds" are undecided about whether they'll bother voting at all. Convincing someone who is leaning towards the other guy to not vote is nearly as good as convincing them to vote for you, but much easier.
No... that's actually accounted for in the "likely voter" methodology of polling. 
Hard to believe to those of us who follow this race so closely, but there are a lot of people who definitely plan to vote but who have not made up their minds yet.  Many of these are people who have serious misgivings about the opposing candidate, but are also hesitant to support their 'own' candidate right now.

Yeah, I should have said "many" not "any" undecideds are questioning whether to vote as much as who they would vote for. Likely voters are the choicest targets but the game is played for all registered voters, and turning likely voters leaning towards your opponent into likely non-voters or likely non-voters leaning towards you into likely voters is more important than ever in such a polarized election. When I think of who would be swayed by a Biden/Trump debate it's not going to be someone deciding between them it'll be the people uncertain if they'll bother voting at all.

But I agree it is crazy that among likely voters there are still people who consider themselves undecided (around 5%, apparently, based on my reading of a YouGov poll posted to 538 today: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/t0hi1tcqs5/econTabReport.pdf, page 16).


GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #597 on: September 16, 2020, 03:44:43 PM »
It wouldn't surprise me if many undecideds are horrified by many things Trump says and does, but are committed to the Pro-Life movement and are trying to come to grips with how high a price they are willing to pay--ethically, economically--to ensure that movement's victory.

What's frustrating is that this movement has made so much progress over the last twenty-nine years already, that Trump may not have even been necessary.

Not to mention that since 1981, the sharpest decline in abortion rates occurred under Democratic Presidents - not under Republican Presidents. The rates especially dropped under the leadership of President Obama and continued to decline after he left office. Most everyone agrees the reason for this is because access to contraception is key in preventing pregnancies. And under the Affordable Care Act, contraception coverage became more widespread.

If they *really* cared about abortion...

Pro-life has nothing to do with life for a very large percentage of supporters.  People want women who have sex to suffer for it by having to give birth.  That's why they don't want easy access to contraception and they don't give a fuck about the fetus after it's born (and are usually unwilling to support programs that help children in poverty).

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #598 on: September 16, 2020, 05:34:49 PM »
Or the life of the mother during or after the pregnancy, as many are willing to block critical pre/post natal care for the many if it means stopping the abortion of a very few.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #599 on: September 16, 2020, 09:30:25 PM »
I had a job in which I interacted with small business people all of the time. They're not concerned about Trump's business failures in his private life. They were very concerned about government impeding their progress, particularly during the Obama years.

Will there be any small businesses left by November, let alone in 4 more years?  Without more stimulus, my impression is that many of them are giving up.  And it is possible that the US borrowing can't go on forever.  It would be fascinating to understand their rationale for trusting Trump for 4 more years.  The man who said that the pandemic would magically go away while privately acknowledging it would get worse.  How can you trust anything he says?  I guess the US will eventually get a vaccine, but Trump is particularly ill-suited to convince people to get vaccinated.  His base will ignore him (conspiracy theories are more convincing) and Democrats don't think he has a shred of credibility.

I would hope that regulations would have moved a bit further down their list of concerns for this election.

As a small business owner who's doing fine (in a non-cyclical industry) I don't really care for more and more stimulus, which will be paid for out of future taxes or future inflation. I just want market forces to work.