Poll

Who do you think will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Donald Trump
105 (29.6%)
Joe Biden
230 (64.8%)
3rd-Party Candidate or Black Swan Event (e.g., Trump or Biden dies)
20 (5.6%)

Total Members Voted: 353

Author Topic: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?  (Read 138365 times)

Eowyn_MI

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #50 on: May 19, 2020, 11:11:44 AM »
I'm gonna agree with nereo.

MI will not vote for Trump at this point. Whitmer is taking care of business there and publicly feuding with Trump.


I'm not saying that you're wrong because we are all just speculating at this point.  However, my experience contradicts your statement.  I, a Michigan resident, did not vote for Trump in the last election but I will absolutely vote for him over Biden.  Also, Whitmer is extremely unpopular among my friends (and me).

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #51 on: May 19, 2020, 11:44:11 AM »
I'm gonna agree with nereo.

MI will not vote for Trump at this point. Whitmer is taking care of business there and publicly feuding with Trump.


I'm not saying that you're wrong because we are all just speculating at this point.  However, my experience contradicts your statement.  I, a Michigan resident, did not vote for Trump in the last election but I will absolutely vote for him over Biden.  Also, Whitmer is extremely unpopular among my friends (and me).

I was basing my speculation on governor approval polling at the time. At the time, she had really high numbers (~70%). That could've changed since last month and there's still a lot of time for Whitmer to become disliked.

Laserjet3051

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #52 on: May 19, 2020, 12:40:23 PM »
I'm gonna agree with nereo.

MI will not vote for Trump at this point. Whitmer is taking care of business there and publicly feuding with Trump.


I'm not saying that you're wrong because we are all just speculating at this point.  However, my experience contradicts your statement.  I, a Michigan resident, did not vote for Trump in the last election but I will absolutely vote for him over Biden.  Also, Whitmer is extremely unpopular among my friends (and me).

I agree. I live in W MI and Whitmer is absolutely reviled amongst almost everybody I know. Folks here, who are self identified democrats are really questioning the parties values as Whitmer pulverizes this state into dust. Myself and many other associates in MI have every intention of voting Trump come November.

American GenX

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #53 on: May 21, 2020, 09:01:31 AM »

Trump has done such a horrible job, and it seems to have gotten even worse with the coronavirus, that I just can't believe he will be re-elected.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #54 on: May 21, 2020, 09:28:26 AM »
Seems like Gov Whitmer (D-MI) has high approval ratings for both her handling of the pandemic and overall job performance. Notably her ratings are double-digits higher than DJT

Interesting to see if it holds through the fall. Given how close the 2016 election was a difference of just a percent could flip the state.

Warlord1986

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #55 on: May 21, 2020, 09:31:48 AM »
I voted Biden, but it's more hope than prediction.

Same.

I frequently pray for God to remove that evil man from office.

HBFIRE

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #56 on: May 26, 2020, 05:11:31 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #57 on: May 26, 2020, 05:28:39 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

Having “the best”* economic growth after two quarters of the absolute worst still makes for a pretty terrible year.  Q1 was -4.8% and Q2 will close in the negative as well unless we get a miracle in June.  Besides the averages, the problem with the GOP banking on Q3 is the numbers won’t be out until October, by which time a lot of voters will have made up their minds.  Unemployment will still be high as well state budget shortfalls.  That’s the pain people notice, not headline GDP numbers or the markets.  It’s hard to see how the Trump Economy is anything but a net-loss of jobs by this fall.

Trump promised growth of 4% “and beyond” since he was a candidate.  Best we managed during the Trump economy was 3.5% post tax-cuts, and all of 2019 we were in the 2.x% range. 

HBFIRE

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #58 on: May 26, 2020, 05:45:48 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

Having “the best”* economic growth after two quarters of the absolute worst still makes for a pretty terrible year.  Q1 was -4.8% and Q2 will close in the negative as well unless we get a miracle in June.  Besides the averages, the problem with the GOP banking on Q3 is the numbers won’t be out until October, by which time a lot of voters will have made up their minds.  Unemployment will still be high as well state budget shortfalls.  That’s the pain people notice, not headline GDP numbers or the markets.  It’s hard to see how the Trump Economy is anything but a net-loss of jobs by this fall.

Trump promised growth of 4% “and beyond” since he was a candidate.  Best we managed during the Trump economy was 3.5% post tax-cuts, and all of 2019 we were in the 2.x% range.

I agree, but that's not what matters when it comes to voters.  Perception is.  They will think in terms of what's happened in the early part of the year.   Trump will campaign (truthfully) about explosive monthly employment number increases and highest quarter GDP in history. 
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 05:57:56 PM by HBFIRE »

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #59 on: May 26, 2020, 06:02:17 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

Having “the best”* economic growth after two quarters of the absolute worst still makes for a pretty terrible year.  Q1 was -4.8% and Q2 will close in the negative as well unless we get a miracle in June.  Besides the averages, the problem with the GOP banking on Q3 is the numbers won’t be out until October, by which time a lot of voters will have made up their minds.  Unemployment will still be high as well state budget shortfalls.  That’s the pain people notice, not headline GDP numbers or the markets.  It’s hard to see how the Trump Economy is anything but a net-loss of jobs by this fall.

Trump promised growth of 4% “and beyond” since he was a candidate.  Best we managed during the Trump economy was 3.5% post tax-cuts, and all of 2019 we were in the 2.x% range.

I agree, but that's not what matters when it comes to voters.  Perception is.  They will think in terms of what's happened in the early part of the year.

Trump's campaign will have to craft the right ads to avoid looking foolish, as Goolsbee noted,

Quote
“There’s a high risk you look completely out of touch if you still have double-digit unemployment rates.”

Pushing this narrative will be difficult in certain hard hit states, like Florida, where tourism will still be depressed. I.e., "The economy is doing great, I'm told, but my hotel/car rental/airline job is still gone."

There's also the problem of the PPP loan forgiveness period running out this month and next. Some people will rebound back to unemployment when their employers once again run out of money. This could limit the July unemployment decrease (and possibly August as well).

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #60 on: May 26, 2020, 07:22:43 PM »
"We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country," says a top former economic adviser to Obama.

“Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.”

It will be hard to beat Trump if this proves accurate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470?fbclid=IwAR2yD9y92KWszMDS34TFvxDXC71LNWusiNC7AO_AspXAVpPt00hkd5eY0Eg

Having “the best”* economic growth after two quarters of the absolute worst still makes for a pretty terrible year.  Q1 was -4.8% and Q2 will close in the negative as well unless we get a miracle in June.  Besides the averages, the problem with the GOP banking on Q3 is the numbers won’t be out until October, by which time a lot of voters will have made up their minds.  Unemployment will still be high as well state budget shortfalls.  That’s the pain people notice, not headline GDP numbers or the markets.  It’s hard to see how the Trump Economy is anything but a net-loss of jobs by this fall.

Trump promised growth of 4% “and beyond” since he was a candidate.  Best we managed during the Trump economy was 3.5% post tax-cuts, and all of 2019 we were in the 2.x% range.

I agree, but that's not what matters when it comes to voters.  Perception is.  They will think in terms of what's happened in the early part of the year.   Trump will campaign (truthfully) about explosive monthly employment number increases and highest quarter GDP in history.

That’s exactly why I don’t think this needle can be threaded.  There’s a well-known phenomenon that recessions end in practice long before they do in people’s psyche.  I remember in 2011, when the market was booming a majority of people still said they though the US was in a recession.  Ironically a majority thought the stock market had gone down, not up.

People are going to remember the high unemployment, the uncertainty, the economic hardship. Precious few actually know whether the Market is up or down, but they remember whether they (or someone they know) was laid off recently.  Even more crucial, it seems unlikely most of the 35MM newly unemployed will be back to work.  It’s is own form of recency-bias.  It doesnt matter if the employment rate is dropping several percentage points per quarter - it’s where it’s been that matters, not the direction it’s going.  And even optimistic projections have us at double-digits by the end of the summer.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #61 on: May 27, 2020, 09:17:13 AM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.


bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #62 on: May 27, 2020, 12:58:57 PM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)

If we're talking about Trump voter enthusiasm, and changing the minds of independents, ads about "+10% growth in Q3!" sound great right before the election. It gives people optimism about the future, which is how Obama won in 2012 when the economy was digging its way out of of the GFC.

It may be too little, too late, as nereo wrote. There might not be enough enough undecideds to matter when the draft numbers are released in late October (though it wouldn't surprise me if Trump pushes the BEA to release a pre-draft report weeks earlier).

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #63 on: May 27, 2020, 02:10:50 PM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)

If we're talking about Trump voter enthusiasm, and changing the minds of independents, ads about "+10% growth in Q3!" sound great right before the election. It gives people optimism about the future, which is how Obama won in 2012 when the economy was digging its way out of of the GFC.

It may be too little, too late, as nereo wrote. There might not be enough enough undecideds to matter when the draft numbers are released in late October (though it wouldn't surprise me if Trump pushes the BEA to release a pre-draft report weeks earlier).

See, I would have said the converse; The GOP *lost* in no small part because of the economy, even though the economic rebound was well underway by the time anyone had cast their ballot. We are hardwired to remember pain more than pleasure, and this is especially true of recessions.

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #64 on: May 27, 2020, 03:42:29 PM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)

If we're talking about Trump voter enthusiasm, and changing the minds of independents, ads about "+10% growth in Q3!" sound great right before the election. It gives people optimism about the future, which is how Obama won in 2012 when the economy was digging its way out of of the GFC.

It may be too little, too late, as nereo wrote. There might not be enough enough undecideds to matter when the draft numbers are released in late October (though it wouldn't surprise me if Trump pushes the BEA to release a pre-draft report weeks earlier).

See, I would have said the converse; The GOP *lost* in no small part because of the economy, even though the economic rebound was well underway by the time anyone had cast their ballot. We are hardwired to remember pain more than pleasure, and this is especially true of recessions.

Re-reading what you wrote...I agree.

And, yeah, that will likely apply here too.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2020, 03:48:01 PM by bacchi »

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #65 on: May 29, 2020, 05:38:12 AM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)



Yes, it does affect me. Socially as well ;-)

I often wonder which economic data carry weight when people vote. They hear about the Dow every day, but the average person's wealth is--modally--equity in their own home. GDP sounds good, but you can have strong GDP growth that's only benefitting a few. The unemployment rate as reported in the news has all sorts of problems, including that it lags the rest of the economy. I suggest people pay attention to the ten-year treasury yield, which was fun last year when the curve inverted.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #66 on: May 29, 2020, 02:13:59 PM »
Professional economist here.

There is no q3 growth number in GDP that is sufficiently high that it would make me think Trump would be better at growing the economy at this stage. It's not enough to consider the economic data, but also to consider the policy set and how that would translate to future growth.

Yeah but you're a professional economist. :)



Yes, it does affect me. Socially as well ;-)

I often wonder which economic data carry weight when people vote. They hear about the Dow every day, but the average person's wealth is--modally--equity in their own home. GDP sounds good, but you can have strong GDP growth that's only benefitting a few. The unemployment rate as reported in the news has all sorts of problems, including that it lags the rest of the economy. I suggest people pay attention to the ten-year treasury yield, which was fun last year when the curve inverted.

See, I think the economy impact stuff for most people is even more basic than what they stocks are doing and the like. That's just something thrown around by people who have already made up their mind imo. So I don't think it's growth in this quarter or that quarter. If the election had been held pre-Covid, the economy would have been a huge plus for Trump, regardless of the "meme perspective" of it's great for rich people and poor people are getting left behind. That's because there were a huge amount of jobs in a lot of places. Unemployment was so good that people would just not show up at a job because they felt like it, knowing there would be another one around the corner. Not all people were doing great, by any stretch, but people there being tons of jobs out there, I believe, gives people a gut feeling of security. Now, post-Covid, even if the "economy recovers" a little, I think how the economy impacts things depends on whether or not people have jobs that want them and/or know others that may not - thus making them feel uncertain about their jobs. The way I see it, regardless of what the numbers show or the news puts out on how things look in November, unless we see a huge employment swing, this is a big issue for Trump.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #67 on: May 29, 2020, 07:29:52 PM »
^There's some common sense!!

Wrenchturner

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #68 on: May 29, 2020, 09:56:09 PM »
Joe Biden knows deep down in his heart that he is the only one that can beat Ronald Reagan this November.

(I can't take credit for this one, it's from a YouTube comment)

I voted for the black swan myself. 

DoubleDown

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #69 on: May 30, 2020, 12:10:14 PM »
I voted for the black swan myself.

Do you have anything in particular in mind?

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #70 on: May 30, 2020, 12:19:55 PM »
Joe Biden knows deep down in his heart that he is the only one that can beat Ronald Reagan this November.

(I can't take credit for this one, it's from a YouTube comment)


LOL

Wrenchturner

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #71 on: May 30, 2020, 12:24:49 PM »
I voted for the black swan myself.

Do you have anything in particular in mind?

Trump or Biden could have a health crisis or a serious blunder on the campaign trail.  The socio economic system has become unstable and that may continue.  I've also read theories of a Democratic bait and switch where they pull out Biden at the last minute.  Seems unlikely to me though. 

These are crazy times with strange forces at play.  Things could change suddenly!  I don't see any obvious replacements for Biden though, not that I follow it closely.  If everything stays roughly the same, I really can't bet on Biden or Trump.  I think Trump has lost friends, but he is incumbent and Biden is a pretty bad candidate, but he might be good enough for people that are unhappy with Trump.

Disappointment is likely to win in November!

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #72 on: May 30, 2020, 06:12:23 PM »
I don’t think a health problem or death is really a black swan event for either candidate in this election.  In fact it’s the exact opposite of a black-swan, with open speculation on both sides and Vegas odds on who might croak and when.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #73 on: June 01, 2020, 08:38:45 AM »
Does Biden even want the job anymore? The country/world is just such a mess, a pandemic that's likely to get worse in the US because of a botch federal response, a cold war with China, international relationships, alliances and institutions in ruins, incompetent and corrupt trump cronies running all levels of government that will have to be rooted out, massive social unrest, China and India gearing up for war, NK will probably start testing again missiles soon, the list just goes on and on. What 80 year old wants that?

Democrats seem to always have to spend the first term of their presidency cleaning up the catastrophes left by the GOP.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #74 on: June 01, 2020, 09:28:39 AM »
Democrats don't even get a full term anymore.

in 1994, Republicans swept Congress to force Clinton to triangulate to the right. In 2010, the tea party rode anti-government energy to take over the House, and that effectively ended any chance at meaningful reform during the Obama Presidency.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #75 on: June 03, 2020, 08:56:40 AM »
Does Biden even want the job anymore? The country/world is just such a mess, a pandemic that's likely to get worse in the US because of a botch federal response, a cold war with China, international relationships, alliances and institutions in ruins, incompetent and corrupt trump cronies running all levels of government that will have to be rooted out, massive social unrest, China and India gearing up for war, NK will probably start testing again missiles soon, the list just goes on and on. What 80 year old wants that?

Democrats seem to always have to spend the first term of their presidency cleaning up the catastrophes left by the GOP.

I just had a thought that things being as bad as they are, maybe Trump will step down for re-election so he doesn’t risk losing.  I wonder what that would take.  Things are really bad right now, but I haven’t been watching the right wing media to know how they are spinning this. 

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #76 on: June 03, 2020, 09:07:20 AM »
Does Biden even want the job anymore? The country/world is just such a mess, a pandemic that's likely to get worse in the US because of a botch federal response, a cold war with China, international relationships, alliances and institutions in ruins, incompetent and corrupt trump cronies running all levels of government that will have to be rooted out, massive social unrest, China and India gearing up for war, NK will probably start testing again missiles soon, the list just goes on and on. What 80 year old wants that?

Democrats seem to always have to spend the first term of their presidency cleaning up the catastrophes left by the GOP.

I just had a thought that things being as bad as they are, maybe Trump will step down for re-election so he doesn’t risk losing.  I wonder what that would take.  Things are really bad right now, but I haven’t been watching the right wing media to know how they are spinning this.

Here's a synopsis: 
Trump is standing up for [white, evangelical] Christians, whereas the Democrats want to take your god from you. 
The libtards are freaking out about the President holding up a bible - those heathens!
The protesters are paid actors bused in to protest sites and hate America (seriously). 
George Floyd was a drug addict and career criminal running counter-fit bills - he was no saint (and therefore its ok he died)
We have to protect property and businesses at all costs or the economy will suffer
Cuomo and others are putting the lives of brave police officers in danger
DC Bishop under fire for partisan attack on Trump (for calling out a partisan photo-op of the church...)

Interestingly there is almost NOTHING in the right-wind mediasphere about Covid deaths or the pandemic in general.  The 100,000th death went by with barely a mention.

Just Joe

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #77 on: June 03, 2020, 09:13:25 AM »

Trump has done such a horrible job, and it seems to have gotten even worse with the coronavirus, that I just can't believe he will be re-elected.

After all the surprises the past decade has served up you can't believe the impossible won't happen? ;)

I'll vote for Biden knowing as others here have detailed - Biden will have a good team to make up for any slips and trips Biden himself might have. I think he is a genuinely good person which Trump is very much not.

I'd rather the Dems (or any viable party) push a candidate in their 40s though. Someone like Obama or Clinton (without the baggage).

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #78 on: June 03, 2020, 09:20:39 AM »
Here's a synopsis: 
Trump is standing up for [white, evangelical] Christians, whereas the Democrats want to take your god from you. 
The libtards are freaking out about the President holding up a bible - those heathens!
The protesters are paid actors bused in to protest sites and hate America (seriously). 
George Floyd was a drug addict and career criminal running counter-fit bills - he was no saint (and therefore its ok he died)
We have to protect property and businesses at all costs or the economy will suffer
Cuomo and others are putting the lives of brave police officers in danger
DC Bishop under fire for partisan attack on Trump (for calling out a partisan photo-op of the church...)

Interestingly there is almost NOTHING in the right-wind mediasphere about Covid deaths or the pandemic in general.  The 100,000th death went by with barely a mention.

+
#ObamaGate
Communism! (But only the Chinese variety)

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #79 on: June 03, 2020, 09:54:33 AM »
Does Biden even want the job anymore? The country/world is just such a mess, a pandemic that's likely to get worse in the US because of a botch federal response, a cold war with China, international relationships, alliances and institutions in ruins, incompetent and corrupt trump cronies running all levels of government that will have to be rooted out, massive social unrest, China and India gearing up for war, NK will probably start testing again missiles soon, the list just goes on and on. What 80 year old wants that?

Democrats seem to always have to spend the first term of their presidency cleaning up the catastrophes left by the GOP.

I just had a thought that things being as bad as they are, maybe Trump will step down for re-election so he doesn’t risk losing.  I wonder what that would take.  Things are really bad right now, but I haven’t been watching the right wing media to know how they are spinning this.

Here's a synopsis: 
Trump is standing up for [white, evangelical] Christians, whereas the Democrats want to take your god from you. 
The libtards are freaking out about the President holding up a bible - those heathens!
The protesters are paid actors bused in to protest sites and hate America (seriously). 
George Floyd was a drug addict and career criminal running counter-fit bills - he was no saint (and therefore its ok he died)
We have to protect property and businesses at all costs or the economy will suffer
Cuomo and others are putting the lives of brave police officers in danger
DC Bishop under fire for partisan attack on Trump (for calling out a partisan photo-op of the church...)

Interestingly there is almost NOTHING in the right-wind mediasphere about Covid deaths or the pandemic in general.  The 100,000th death went by with barely a mention.

Where did you see this sentiment at? Admittedly, I don't watch Fox News, but I have literally only seen one thing saying anything at all but that his death was totally unjust. It's been the most universal condemnation of anything I can think of in recent memory. Now the one I did see was a doozy conspiracy theory that somehow tied his death with Covid-19 and Soros trying to do something...

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #80 on: June 03, 2020, 10:10:11 AM »
Does Biden even want the job anymore? The country/world is just such a mess, a pandemic that's likely to get worse in the US because of a botch federal response, a cold war with China, international relationships, alliances and institutions in ruins, incompetent and corrupt trump cronies running all levels of government that will have to be rooted out, massive social unrest, China and India gearing up for war, NK will probably start testing again missiles soon, the list just goes on and on. What 80 year old wants that?

Democrats seem to always have to spend the first term of their presidency cleaning up the catastrophes left by the GOP.

I just had a thought that things being as bad as they are, maybe Trump will step down for re-election so he doesn’t risk losing.  I wonder what that would take.  Things are really bad right now, but I haven’t been watching the right wing media to know how they are spinning this.

Here's a synopsis: 
Trump is standing up for [white, evangelical] Christians, whereas the Democrats want to take your god from you. 
The libtards are freaking out about the President holding up a bible - those heathens!
The protesters are paid actors bused in to protest sites and hate America (seriously). 
George Floyd was a drug addict and career criminal running counter-fit bills - he was no saint (and therefore its ok he died)
We have to protect property and businesses at all costs or the economy will suffer
Cuomo and others are putting the lives of brave police officers in danger
DC Bishop under fire for partisan attack on Trump (for calling out a partisan photo-op of the church...)

Interestingly there is almost NOTHING in the right-wind mediasphere about Covid deaths or the pandemic in general.  The 100,000th death went by with barely a mention.

Where did you see this sentiment at? Admittedly, I don't watch Fox News, but I have literally only seen one thing saying anything at all but that his death was totally unjust. It's been the most universal condemnation of anything I can think of in recent memory. Now the one I did see was a doozy conspiracy theory that somehow tied his death with Covid-19 and Soros trying to do something...

The autopsy findings showed Floyd had Fentanyl in his system and had a criminal history.  They've suggested that the drugs caused his heart to fail and not the knee-to-the-neck... since refuted by the family's independent autopsy.  The reason police responded was because he paid with a counterfit bill (though it's unclear whether he knew the currency was fake - having worked as a retail clerk it's facinating how many bills get passed on every day).  The Minneapolis Union chief even called Floyd "a violent criminal" and suggested the officers needed to constrain him.

This is right out of the playbook of "discredit and attack the victim".  It started slowly but is steadily building.  I'll bet you dollars-to-donuts that within a few weeks we'll hear some prominant Trump supporters talk about how Floyd was an "evil criminal" and the cops had every right to fear him and use aggressive tactics to hold him at bay.

Some various articles spreading this trash are here, here, here ...honestly there are lots more, but there's only so far down that rabbit hole I want to go.

bacchi

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #81 on: June 03, 2020, 10:22:54 AM »
thedonald, while a pepe forum and not a news source, is aping this ^^^ sentiment. There's a lot of "did nuttin" comments there as well but that's expected in that racist cesspit.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #82 on: June 03, 2020, 11:02:22 AM »
Does Biden even want the job anymore? The country/world is just such a mess, a pandemic that's likely to get worse in the US because of a botch federal response, a cold war with China, international relationships, alliances and institutions in ruins, incompetent and corrupt trump cronies running all levels of government that will have to be rooted out, massive social unrest, China and India gearing up for war, NK will probably start testing again missiles soon, the list just goes on and on. What 80 year old wants that?

Democrats seem to always have to spend the first term of their presidency cleaning up the catastrophes left by the GOP.

I just had a thought that things being as bad as they are, maybe Trump will step down for re-election so he doesn’t risk losing.  I wonder what that would take.  Things are really bad right now, but I haven’t been watching the right wing media to know how they are spinning this.

Here's a synopsis: 
Trump is standing up for [white, evangelical] Christians, whereas the Democrats want to take your god from you. 
The libtards are freaking out about the President holding up a bible - those heathens!
The protesters are paid actors bused in to protest sites and hate America (seriously). 
George Floyd was a drug addict and career criminal running counter-fit bills - he was no saint (and therefore its ok he died)
We have to protect property and businesses at all costs or the economy will suffer
Cuomo and others are putting the lives of brave police officers in danger
DC Bishop under fire for partisan attack on Trump (for calling out a partisan photo-op of the church...)

Interestingly there is almost NOTHING in the right-wind mediasphere about Covid deaths or the pandemic in general.  The 100,000th death went by with barely a mention.

Where did you see this sentiment at? Admittedly, I don't watch Fox News, but I have literally only seen one thing saying anything at all but that his death was totally unjust. It's been the most universal condemnation of anything I can think of in recent memory. Now the one I did see was a doozy conspiracy theory that somehow tied his death with Covid-19 and Soros trying to do something...

The autopsy findings showed Floyd had Fentanyl in his system and had a criminal history.  They've suggested that the drugs caused his heart to fail and not the knee-to-the-neck... since refuted by the family's independent autopsy.  The reason police responded was because he paid with a counterfit bill (though it's unclear whether he knew the currency was fake - having worked as a retail clerk it's facinating how many bills get passed on every day).  The Minneapolis Union chief even called Floyd "a violent criminal" and suggested the officers needed to constrain him.

This is right out of the playbook of "discredit and attack the victim".  It started slowly but is steadily building.  I'll bet you dollars-to-donuts that within a few weeks we'll hear some prominant Trump supporters talk about how Floyd was an "evil criminal" and the cops had every right to fear him and use aggressive tactics to hold him at bay.

Some various articles spreading this trash are here, here, here ...honestly there are lots more, but there's only so far down that rabbit hole I want to go.

Definitely don't worry about going any farther. I truly just hadn't heard anything like that, but honestly after seeing it, I hadn't looked into people's takes on the actual murder at all, it was so obvious to me. That makes me sad....

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #83 on: June 03, 2020, 11:12:22 AM »
I just had a thought that things being as bad as they are, maybe Trump will step down for re-election so he doesn’t risk losing.  I wonder what that would take.  Things are really bad right now, but I haven’t been watching the right wing media to know how they are spinning this.

No chance. Literally none. When has Trump ever backed down from anything? He only ever escalates and inflames. We have a better chance of him (illegally) refusing to hold the election at all and the Republican judges that they've been stuffing the courts with (illegally) backing him up than we do of him dropping out.

Not that I think that's particularly likely, but it's much much more likely than him dropping out.

NorthernBlitz

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #84 on: June 03, 2020, 01:22:27 PM »
Democrats don't even get a full term anymore.

in 1994, Republicans swept Congress to force Clinton to triangulate to the right. In 2010, the tea party rode anti-government energy to take over the House, and that effectively ended any chance at meaningful reform during the Obama Presidency.

I'm a Canadian, so I don't think I'm an expert (although I live in the US now). I thought this was how US elections always go.

This also happened with the current administration, right?

From an outsider, it seems like the system is set up this way to make it so that government can only really make big changes when they have bi-partisan agreement (which seems super unlikely in today's hyper-partisan, purity test driven political environment). And when parties are big enough to have control of everything, there seems to be enough internal disagreement to prevent big changes anyway.

Unfortunately, politicians have figured out the behavioral sciences and know that just about everyone finds it more attractive to vote against something than for something.

This also seems more attractive for politicians because they are 100% successful on day one just for winning. There's no onus on them for doing anything when they get there because they beat <insert big fear here>. "Sure the person I helped vote in last time sucks, but can you imagine how bad the person on the other team would have sucked!"

I didn't vote in the pole because the US election always seems to be basically 50/50 so it could go either way.


talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #85 on: June 04, 2020, 08:20:49 AM »
Legit about the 50-50. There are behavioral reasons for which we probably could not distinguish that from 70-30.

We've had forty-five Presidents, so far. Out of the first 44, seventeen of them were elected to two (or more) terms. among those who were not popular enough to win that second time, we had three of them in a quarter century, before falling into this pattern where incumbents win re-election.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #86 on: June 04, 2020, 09:42:05 AM »
Legit about the 50-50. There are behavioral reasons for which we probably could not distinguish that from 70-30.

We've had forty-five Presidents, so far. Out of the first 44, seventeen of them were elected to two (or more) terms. among those who were not popular enough to win that second time, we had three of them in a quarter century, before falling into this pattern where incumbents win re-election.

Statistically,  incumbents are not more likely to win a second term now than they have been for the first 200 years of this country.
Much of that is due to a low sample size (out of the previous 7 presidents (excluding Trump, who has not had the opportunity to win/lose a second term just yet) 3 failed to do so. 


Cassie

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #87 on: June 04, 2020, 09:43:35 AM »
Anyone but trump. A pet rock would do:))

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #88 on: June 04, 2020, 09:51:59 AM »
Anyone but trump. A pet rock would do:))

I've been saying I'd support a potted plant for some time... but I could make the jump and support a pet rock also.

Cassie

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #89 on: June 04, 2020, 10:23:17 AM »
Good one Nereo! I actually rarely vote a straight ticket as I vote for the person.

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #90 on: June 04, 2020, 11:48:55 AM »
Anyone but trump. A pet rock would do:))

I've been saying I'd support a potted plant for some time... but I could make the jump and support a pet rock also.

Make America granite again!

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #91 on: June 04, 2020, 11:55:17 AM »
Anyone but trump. A pet rock would do:))

I've been saying I'd support a potted plant for some time... but I could make the jump and support a pet rock also.

Make America granite again!

We need to get back on solid footing....

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #92 on: June 04, 2020, 11:56:41 AM »
Anyone but trump. A pet rock would do:))

I've been saying I'd support a potted plant for some time... but I could make the jump and support a pet rock also.

Make America granite again!

For when schist happens.
We all need to be a gneiss to one another
...

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #93 on: June 04, 2020, 11:59:21 AM »
Anyone but trump. A pet rock would do:))

I've been saying I'd support a potted plant for some time... but I could make the jump and support a pet rock also.

Make America granite again!

For when schist happens.
We all need to be a gneiss to one another
...


Can I append to . . .  Mica America granite again?

rob in cal

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #94 on: June 06, 2020, 11:50:41 AM »
 I would have to say the Dems are favored to win, whether Biden or someone else if Biden can't make the campaign due to health issues perhaps.  From the moment Trump was elected they have had the wind at their backs politically, coming close to winning a variety of GOP held congressional seats in 2017, gubernatorial wins in 2017, easily winning the House and great lake state governorships in 2018, winning Kentucky and Louisiana governorships in 2019. I would put true odds of a Democratic victory at around 4 to 1, not the close to even odds that we have now in the betting markets. Will probably go all in on Trump not to be reelected at around 50 50 odds at predictit.  Even if Trump cured cancer and brought world peace there is such a huge amount of people, close to a majority who wont vote for him, just as there is a smaller group, not that much smaller, but definetly smaller, who would vote for him no matter what he does.

I like the fact that noone one so far has said that Trump will try to cancel the elections and declare himself dictator for life, which is what any self respecting 1930's style totalitarian dictator would be trying  to do once they took power, let alone were facing imminent defeat.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 11:53:36 AM by rob in cal »

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #95 on: June 06, 2020, 05:15:57 PM »
Anyone but trump. A pet rock would do:))

I've been saying I'd support a potted plant for some time... but I could make the jump and support a pet rock also.

Didn't Michael Moore get Michiganers to vote for ficus plant?

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #96 on: June 08, 2020, 06:48:49 AM »
Noticed that strong statements from Colin Powell and President Bush came out over the weekend. I cannot help but feel as though the Trump supporters I know don't really put much stock in what either of those men say.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #97 on: June 08, 2020, 07:12:24 AM »
Noticed that strong statements from Colin Powell and President Bush came out over the weekend. I cannot help but feel as though the Trump supporters I know don't really put much stock in what either of those men say.

One thing I've noticed over the last several months is that many of the long-time Republican individuals I know seem fed up and grumpy about politics in general.  They aren't supporting Biden by any means, but there's been lots of comments about wishing Trump would just shut up, stop tweeting and quit trying to kick up controversy.

At the same time, many of the 'New Trump Voters' (for lack of a better term - basically people who supported him in 2016 but previously didn't consider themselves solidly Republican) are doing the exact opposite.  They're getting louder and more obnoxious. The more criticism Trump gets for some comment or action, the more they support him.  Trump visited here the other day and it kicked off multiple demonstrations, mostly against.  The protesters were peaceful (zero arrests, no rioting) and chanting the usual slogans, many with their children.  But many in the pro-Trump rally seemed to *want* to provoke and annoy.  Many carried firearms and sported pretty offensive slogans.   It's kind of scary, to be honest.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #98 on: June 08, 2020, 08:05:58 AM »
Noticed that strong statements from Colin Powell and President Bush came out over the weekend. I cannot help but feel as though the Trump supporters I know don't really put much stock in what either of those men say.

One thing I've noticed over the last several months is that many of the long-time Republican individuals I know seem fed up and grumpy about politics in general.  They aren't supporting Biden by any means, but there's been lots of comments about wishing Trump would just shut up, stop tweeting and quit trying to kick up controversy.

At the same time, many of the 'New Trump Voters' (for lack of a better term - basically people who supported him in 2016 but previously didn't consider themselves solidly Republican) are doing the exact opposite.  They're getting louder and more obnoxious. The more criticism Trump gets for some comment or action, the more they support him.  Trump visited here the other day and it kicked off multiple demonstrations, mostly against.  The protesters were peaceful (zero arrests, no rioting) and chanting the usual slogans, many with their children.  But many in the pro-Trump rally seemed to *want* to provoke and annoy.  Many carried firearms and sported pretty offensive slogans.   It's kind of scary, to be honest.
Yes, I agree the more criticism Trump gets the more people support him.  Even from the people who wish he would just shut up, stop tweeting and quit trying to kick up controversy. It's the biased media.  I don't know why they don't get it.
   I disagree with the idea that many Trump protestors are carrying guns.  I know that there are some but I highly doubt that there were many unless your definition of many is different than mine.   What exactly is many in your opinion?  Can you tell me how many gun toting protestors you personally saw at your Trump rally?  It seems to me the press can focus in on a dozen gun toting beer bellied protestors and ignore the rest of the 1,000 person crowd to give the impression that there are "many" gun toting protestors there.     

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #99 on: June 08, 2020, 08:17:03 AM »
Noticed that strong statements from Colin Powell and President Bush came out over the weekend. I cannot help but feel as though the Trump supporters I know don't really put much stock in what either of those men say.

One thing I've noticed over the last several months is that many of the long-time Republican individuals I know seem fed up and grumpy about politics in general.  They aren't supporting Biden by any means, but there's been lots of comments about wishing Trump would just shut up, stop tweeting and quit trying to kick up controversy.

At the same time, many of the 'New Trump Voters' (for lack of a better term - basically people who supported him in 2016 but previously didn't consider themselves solidly Republican) are doing the exact opposite.  They're getting louder and more obnoxious. The more criticism Trump gets for some comment or action, the more they support him.  Trump visited here the other day and it kicked off multiple demonstrations, mostly against.  The protesters were peaceful (zero arrests, no rioting) and chanting the usual slogans, many with their children.  But many in the pro-Trump rally seemed to *want* to provoke and annoy.  Many carried firearms and sported pretty offensive slogans.   It's kind of scary, to be honest.
Yes, I agree the more criticism Trump gets the more people support him.  Even from the people who wish he would just shut up, stop tweeting and quit trying to kick up controversy. It's the biased media.  I don't know why they don't get it.
   I disagree with the idea that many Trump protestors are carrying guns.  I know that there are some but I highly doubt that there were many unless your definition of many is different than mine.   What exactly is many in your opinion?  Can you tell me how many gun toting protestors you personally saw at your Trump rally?  It seems to me the press can focus in on a dozen gun toting beer bellied protestors and ignore the rest of the 1,000 person crowd to give the impression that there are "many" gun toting protestors there.     

I don't think I made myself very clear, or it wasn't read very carefully.

I'm not claiming that the more criticism Trump gets the more people support him.  I'm also did not mean to imply that many Trump protestors are carrying guns; so far I haven't seen any at the Trump protests in my area.

What I've noticed is that many people I personally know who are long-term identity Republicans are frustrated by President Trump, whereas many supporters who were not strong Republican supporters prior to 2016 seem to react to each criticism by even more effusive support.