Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?

[habanero]

I personally don't think Trump actually wants to be president for another four years. But I think he wants loosing an election even less.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I feel sorry for anyone who associates as a Republican.  It's over.  Trump is going to drag the Republican party in to a place that only Nazi's can associate with.  The guy simply cannot stop himself from making it worse. 

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I feel sorry for anyone who associates as a Republican.  It's over.  Trump is going to drag the Republican party in to a place that only Nazi's can associate with.  The guy simply cannot stop himself from making it worse.

And I still think that it is quite insightful that I voted for the coronavirus to win the election.

[Sid Hoffman]

It's about states, not total. Getting on the ballot in NY or TX won't swing much, but if he can get on in Florida or Minnesota or Nevada, he could affect the race. Even if he doesn't affect things, a close race will mean one side or the other will point to him as a confounding factor the way Republicans have pointed at Perot for 28 years.

Forget Perot, Al Gore likely lost because of the confusing Florida ballot and people accidentally voting for Ralph Nader instead of Al Gore. Surveys were also done for people who intentionally voted for Nader, asking who they would have voted for if Nader didn't run and 60% said they'd have voted for Al Gore. Nader got over 97,000 votes in Florida. Gore lost by just 537 votes. I'm pretty sure that haunts Democrats much more than Perot's effect on Bush haunts Republicans, because at least Perot got millions of votes. Nader got next to none and still swung the election the other way.

[jim555]

I feel sorry for anyone who associates as a Republican.  It's over.  Trump is going to drag the Republican party in to a place that only Nazi's can associate with.  The guy simply cannot stop himself from making it worse.

He ran a racist campaign last time and won, so apparently being a racist gets you votes in the US.

[talltexan]

It's about states, not total. Getting on the ballot in NY or TX won't swing much, but if he can get on in Florida or Minnesota or Nevada, he could affect the race. Even if he doesn't affect things, a close race will mean one side or the other will point to him as a confounding factor the way Republicans have pointed at Perot for 28 years.

Forget Perot, Al Gore likely lost because of the confusing Florida ballot and people accidentally voting for Ralph Nader instead of Al Gore. Surveys were also done for people who intentionally voted for Nader, asking who they would have voted for if Nader didn't run and 60% said they'd have voted for Al Gore. Nader got over 97,000 votes in Florida. Gore lost by just 537 votes. I'm pretty sure that haunts Democrats much more than Perot's effect on Bush haunts Republicans, because at least Perot got millions of votes. Nader got next to none and still swung the election the other way.

I've been listening to an excellent podcast called "Fiasco" about this Florida recount chapter. Based on media calling the state for Gore before the western Florida polls closed, I'm not as sure you can say Gore was robbed by Nader running or by any other one thing. Everything matters in a close election. It's really an excellent podcast, though, by a journalist I admire named Leon Neyfakh. He also did Iran Contra, for all you 80's fans.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I'm all-in on Kanye--let's all live the American Meme!

But seriously, what is the best way to punish both parties for their terrible performance? Should we go in the full-blown IDW-endorsed direction and go with this? IDW-commandant Brett Weinstein says we should and he understands both the bankruptcy of the Church of SJWs and of the underlying electoral signal behind the Trump phenomenon. The destruction of our "sense-making" institutions are creating a situation where some of the basic tenets of post-enlightenment Western Civilization are under threat through post-modern rot and anti-rational mood-affiliation. Evergreen 2.0.

As a life-long independent and general believer in good governance, I support this in principle.  The trick is selling people(who may be "independent" but not politically neutral) on the idea that this candidate/pair of candidates is viable in the first place so that voting for them wouldn't just be furthering the election of a candidate they REALLY dislike.

I still think it'd take a fracturing of one of the major parties - most likely a left vs. centrist split of the Democratic party - or the Democrats as a whole moving further to the left, to truly open the door to something like this.  I don't think we're far from that point, but I don't believe we're quite there yet.

I think that a disintegration of one or both parties is a necessary prerequisite before a "unity ticket" could actually win. The game-theory of first-past-the-post winner-take-all elections virtually guarantees that there will be two powerful parties with roughly equal support. Which two parties those are can and has changed in the past, but there will always be two. The "unity ticket party" would have to supplant one, which would require that party to be in serious crumbling disarray first.

The more practical way to make things be more "centrist" is to nudge the two parties in that direction, by voting in the primaries for the more centrist / less crazy candidate, and then voting in the general for the more centrist / less crazy candidate. A huge part of the problem today is that only party loyalists vote in the primaries, which means that often the "not centrist" candidate wins.

I also flat-out reject the notion that both sides are equally responsible for "the destruction of 'sense-making' institutions" and "anti-intellectual mood-affiliation" and "corruption", which is an unstated assumption in these discussions. Is one party perfect? No, and there never will be a perfect party. But one party is less-bad, and that's all you can ever hope for. Vote for the less-bad party until the other one gets its act together and becomes even less-bad, and then vote for that one.

I actually do agree that the real story behind political polarization and the formation of irrational ideological bubbles is probably much more complex than merely the direct effects of hyper-partisan politics. Perhaps social media is a factor--or before that--the emergence of cable news outfits that are increasingly tailored to one's biases. The Unity idea is great in theory but I've always scoffed at similar efforts made in the past because such movement always lack great strategists (and it would need someone on par with Steve Bannon; nice guys finish last). That's why I'm now all-in on Kanye! He is gaining some momentum with Musk's enthusiastic endorsement. Don't doubt ur vibe, Mr. West!

Or maybe not!. Come on, Musk--no one is perfect so we might as well vote for whatever senile old men and lunatics emerge from the woodwork!

[MMMdude]

Wow, this basically hands Trump the election.  America will not stand for this insanity...defending a child rapist no less

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/supreme-court-oklahoma-mcgirt-creek-nation.html

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Wow, this basically hands Trump the election.  America will not stand for this insanity...defending a child rapist no less

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/supreme-court-oklahoma-mcgirt-creek-nation.html

I don't understand the case well enough to have an opinion, but Trump did nominate Gorsuch who sided with the majority (which I'm presuming you think is in the wrong thanks to your solid grasp of Constitutional law). But of course, no one will remember or care about this in 3 days.

[talltexan]

I'm connected to a man on FB who is simultaneously pro-Trump and emphatically in favor of First People's causes. If we were in a world in which Oklahoma is a battle ground state, Trump probably cannot come back.

[MasterStache]

Wow, this basically hands Trump the election.  America will not stand for this insanity...defending a child rapist no less

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/supreme-court-oklahoma-mcgirt-creek-nation.html

No one is defending a child rapist. The government established and signed treaties when they decided to relocate forcibly relocate a large group of Cherokee Nation Native Americans from their homelands. Prosecutions of crimes committed on the Indian Reservation will likely be conducted by federal prosecutors.

This doesn't help Trump at all considering Gorsuch (Trump elected) sided with other justices in saying the written language per the treaties should be upheld. I think if Gorusch would have gone the other way, it would have fueled his base. You know stealing lands from the Native Americans and all.

[DarkandStormy]

Wow, this basically hands Trump the election.  America will not stand for this insanity...defending a child rapist no less

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/supreme-court-oklahoma-mcgirt-creek-nation.html

The U.S. signed the treaty.  It's "insanity" that America...honor the treaty?  LOL

[Kris]

Wow, this basically hands Trump the election.  America will not stand for this insanity...defending a child rapist no less

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/supreme-court-oklahoma-mcgirt-creek-nation.html

The U.S. signed the treaty.  It's "insanity" that America...honor the treaty?  LOL

That's a very Trumpian take.

[sherr]

This doesn't help Trump at all considering Gorsuch (Trump elected) sided with other justices in saying the written language per the treaties should be upheld. I think if Gorusch would have gone the other way, it would have fueled his base. You know stealing lands from the Native Americans and all.

Gorsuch also has always consistently been a "the government actually needs to abide by its treaties with the Native Americans" judge. This was well known before Trump nominated him; he dealt with Native American law regularly in the 10th Circuit. I don't see any reason to think that Trump actually cares about this case but if Trump is upset about the outcome he has no one but himself to blame.

[GuitarStv]

Wow, this basically hands Trump the election.  America will not stand for this insanity...defending a child rapist no less

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/supreme-court-oklahoma-mcgirt-creek-nation.html

The U.S. signed the treaty.  It's "insanity" that America...honor the treaty?  LOL

That's a very Trumpian take.

Scary idea for many that the US might need to honor the commitments it made to Native Americans.  It was pretty standard practice to sign documents full of lies while forcibly relocating the original residents of the land.

[DarkandStormy]

Wow, this basically hands Trump the election.  America will not stand for this insanity...defending a child rapist no less

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/supreme-court-oklahoma-mcgirt-creek-nation.html

The U.S. signed the treaty.  It's "insanity" that America...honor the treaty?  LOL

That's a very Trumpian take.

It's "Trumpian" to honor treaties or "Trumpian" to think the SCOTUS decision is insanity and will deliver the election to Donnie?

[talltexan]

Wow, this basically hands Trump the election.  America will not stand for this insanity...defending a child rapist no less

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/supreme-court-oklahoma-mcgirt-creek-nation.html

The U.S. signed the treaty.  It's "insanity" that America...honor the treaty?  LOL

Pretty sure the whole reason we held our noses and elevated Trump to President was to break stuff. Paris Accords, Iran Deal, WHO, all of it was supposed to be broken!

[Kris]

Wow, this basically hands Trump the election.  America will not stand for this insanity...defending a child rapist no less

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/supreme-court-oklahoma-mcgirt-creek-nation.html

The U.S. signed the treaty.  It's "insanity" that America...honor the treaty?  LOL

That's a very Trumpian take.

It's "Trumpian" to honor treaties or "Trumpian" to think the SCOTUS decision is insanity and will deliver the election to Donnie?

It’s Trumpian to think that honoring a contract is insanity. MMMdude’s take.

[SotI]

Just for the record: Voting "black swan event" as this year has already been f****ing insane, my hopes for ppl across the world finding some level of sanity is literally nil.

DH and I often feel like Statler and Waldorf on the balcony, these days - just shaking our heads.
 

[Abe]

Trump has to do better in Michigan and Florida to win. He’s even in Florida and trailing in Michigan after correcting for the polls’ 2016 underestimates of his popularity. I do t think either state’s population care about an esoteric law affecting Oklahoma. No one will remember that by November. Only a good old fashioned war will rally enough support, so maybe we should pick a fight with Iran again. Or maybe Biden will put his foot in his mouth and turn off some supporters, which could hand those slim margins back to Trump.

[jim555]

"Amnesty" Don, pathway to citizenship for the DACA group.  He just lost a chunk of his base with that move. 

[sherr]

Trump has to do better in Michigan and Florida to win. He’s even in Florida and trailing in Michigan after correcting for the polls’ 2016 underestimates of his popularity.

For what it's worth, a lot of pollsters are already adjusting given what they learned in 2016, so you are probably double-correcting to some extent.

"Amnesty" Don, pathway to citizenship for the DACA group.  He just lost a chunk of his base with that move.

A) Good, and B) I'll believe it when I see it.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

"Amnesty" Don, pathway to citizenship for the DACA group.  He just lost a chunk of his base with that move.

What is this referencing?

[jim555]

What is this referencing?

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/10/889950540/trump-says-upcoming-immigration-measure-will-include-daca

Edit add: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-11/trump-vows-to-sign-executive-order-to-change-immigration-laws?srnd=premium

[Kris]

What is this referencing?

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/10/889950540/trump-says-upcoming-immigration-measure-will-include-daca

Psh. He was talking to Telemundo. I’m sure it was a lie.

[GuitarStv]

What is this referencing?

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/10/889950540/trump-says-upcoming-immigration-measure-will-include-daca

Psh. He was talking to Telemundo. I’m sure it was a lie.

To be fair, if it has come out of Trump's mouth, it's almost always proven to be a lie.  :P

[js82]

What is this referencing?

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/10/889950540/trump-says-upcoming-immigration-measure-will-include-daca

Psh. He was talking to Telemundo. I’m sure it was a lie.

Prediction: Trump will publicly support a legislative solution to DACA in some form, but Mitch(with possible behind-the-scenes encouragement from Trump/Stephen Miller) will find a way for it to get stuck in the Senate, thereby allowing Trump to play the "good guy" while not actually accomplishing anything on this front - and Trump will blame Senate Democrats for this.  This will probably involve the bill being stuffed with poison pills in a manner that makes bipartisan compromise impossible.

[talltexan]

Aren't we basically at zero immigration right at this moment? How can Trump come up to a number above zero and appear at all consistent with his campaign positions of 2016?

[sherr]

Aren't we basically at zero immigration right at this moment? How can Trump come up to a number above zero and appear at all consistent with his campaign positions of 2016?

What on earth makes you think that is on Trump's (or any other Republican's) list of concerns?

[talltexan]

Appearing consistent may not be a concern on most issues.

Trump has consistently, relentlessly, done things that reduce immigration. I cannot think of any action he has taken that would increase it. I see nothing but fidelity to his promises from the 2015-2016 period on this.

And fidelity from Trump is...rare.

[wenchsenior]

It's about states, not total. Getting on the ballot in NY or TX won't swing much, but if he can get on in Florida or Minnesota or Nevada, he could affect the race. Even if he doesn't affect things, a close race will mean one side or the other will point to him as a confounding factor the way Republicans have pointed at Perot for 28 years.

Yes, I'm aware. That's why I specifically noted Colorado and Florida and Michigan (swing states) have deadlines this month.  If he gets on the ballot in those, I'll start taking the threat more seriously. 

But even so, who do you think is going to vote for him?  He's got a mental illness that he doesn't appear to manage that well, and he's divisive all on his own even without his mental illness.  I'm skeptical that he's going to swing a bunch of black women/older black voters (who DO reliably vote) to his corner with so much at stake.  And I'm not sure who else he's likely to get.  Maybe a few super religious libertarian types (one would think that's an oxymoron, but apparently not)?    Certainly he'll attract some younger voters, but they don't reliably vote anyway, and I bet they won't vote for Biden this election anyway.

It's not impossible that he could dramatically affect the outcome, but a lot of weird shit would have to happen, IMO. Of course, we're in the era of weird shit, so :shrug:

As predicted, Kanye didn't even make it to the end of the month.

[BicycleB]

Google's search box informs me that "is kanye west still running for president" is the most searched for completion of "is kanye west"

[Sid Hoffman]

Google's search box informs me that "is kanye west still running for president" is the most searched for completion of "is kanye west"

I mean - I'd vote for Kanye West before I'd vote for Trump or Biden, so it's a fair question.

[Kris]

Google's search box informs me that "is kanye west still running for president" is the most searched for completion of "is kanye west"

I mean - I'd vote for Kanye West before I'd vote for Trump or Biden, so it's a fair question.

There is always going to be a non-zero number of the population who thinks this shit is a freaking joke, I guess...

[Abe]

Latest polls, again correcting for errors in the 2016 polls vs. actual results, show Biden with a substantial lead in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As pointed out previously, these polls (hopefully) have corrected for the sampling errors from 2016, so this second correction is redundant. We will see.

[nereo]

Latest polls, again correcting for errors in the 2016 polls vs. actual results, show Biden with a substantial lead in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As pointed out previously, these polls (hopefully) have corrected for the sampling errors from 2016, so this second correction is redundant. We will see.

Well, no, we won't ever get to 'see'...  Polls are just a snapshot in time.  How people are feeling today should the election be held now.  They are interesting because they indicate a sizable lead by Biden, and we can track how support is maintained or eroded over time from either candidate.  But polls almost always change between mid-summer and late October --- not because they were wrong but because the campaigns evolve as does socio-economic issues.

That said, Trump is in one heck of a hole, with a majority of likely voters "strongly opposed" right now. 

[ctuser1]

Appearing consistent may not be a concern on most issues.

Trump has consistently, relentlessly, done things that reduce immigration. I cannot think of any action he has taken that would increase it. I see nothing but fidelity to his promises from the 2015-2016 period on this.

And fidelity from Trump is...rare.

I think That’s Miller, not Trump.

As much as I dislike the bugger, he does not appear to be intentionally anti-immigrant.

He is unable to feel empathy, and hence can’t fathom the horror of it when the likes of Miller put kids in cages.

All other racist behavior is simply him choosing the most convenient option available, he is not capable of caring if that is racist and hurtful.

(I used to think like the above already. Watching some interviews with Mary Trump convinced me.)

[vern]

I think that all of the rioting and looting in conjunction with the "defund the police" movement is going to put Trump right back in office.

[nessness]

I think that all of the rioting and looting in conjunction with the "defund the police" movement is going to put Trump right back in office.

This isn't supported by polls - white Americans have moved leftward on issues of race and policing since George Floyd's death.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/trump-white-america-polling-shift-racism.html

[jim555]

Even Kasich is Ridin with Biden:

Republican John Kasich Will Reportedly Speak At Democratic National Convention For Joe Biden

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/07/20/republican-john-kasich-will-reportedly-speak-at-democratic-national-convention-for-joe-biden/#46f4096532b6

[js82]

I think that all of the rioting and looting in conjunction with the "defund the police" movement is going to put Trump right back in office.

For the sake of pointing it out, Biden has unambiguously stated that he does not support defunding the police.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/06/10/joe-biden-declares-definitively-i-do-not-support-defunding-police/#608e0760aeab

Trump wants to keep the violent aspects of the protests front and center, but reality is that they're a tiny group relative to those who have peacefully protested police violence in the wake of George Floyd's death, and in some cases not even affiliated with the protesters. (the "99% of cops are good" crowd doesn't get to have it both ways here)

[talltexan]

A year ago I asked me FiL (I'm certain he voted for Trump, believing Clinton to be the person who would un-make our Republic) if he'd vote for a candidate who promised, "You will have whole weekends where you forget that I'm President." I cannot help but feel like this is a winning issue now. And Biden's keeping a low profile because--frankly--people want that from their President. Also so he doesn't get the 'rona. As are we all.

[nereo]

A year ago I asked me FiL (I'm certain he voted for Trump, believing Clinton to be the person who would un-make our Republic) if he'd vote for a candidate who promised, "You will have whole weekends where you forget that I'm President." I cannot help but feel like this is a winning issue now. And Biden's keeping a low profile because--frankly--people want that from their President. Also so he doesn't get the 'rona. As are we all.

God yes.  Right now I want an executive office that doesn't make headlines every damn day.  I want to know that official policy won't be changed in the middle of the night without any consultation of the bureau/office involved, I want international relations buried on page 6 instead of above the fold, and I want each department run by career servants who've spent at least a decade working in that very field.  I want to end this practice of firing via Twitter and "I'll keep you in suspense" about major policies.

I don't want political extremists in charge (on either end of the political spectrum). At this point I'm not even too picky about whether they are Right-of-center or Left-of-center.  Just that they are 1) competent and 2) making a good faith effort to improve their department as outlined by the congressional mandate that created it (I'm looking at you Wheeler and DeVos!)

I want to be bored.  I want to tune out for several weeks and then scroll through some newsfeeds and think "meh, same-ol-same-ol". I want to stop that moment of anxiety each morning when I see a news update about 'Trump' and i think "oh lord what now?"  I want the political 'scandals' to go back to being who boinked who outside of wedlock and which person made some social gaff at a state dinner - entertaining but not directly impactful of me, my family or my neighborhood.

[MasterStache]

I think that all of the rioting and looting in conjunction with the "defund the police" movement is going to put Trump right back in office.

For the sake of pointing it out, Biden has unambiguously stated that he does not support defunding the police.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/06/10/joe-biden-declares-definitively-i-do-not-support-defunding-police/#608e0760aeab

Trump wants to keep the violent aspects of the protests front and center, but reality is that they're a tiny group relative to those who have peacefully protested police violence in the wake of George Floyd's death, and in some cases not even affiliated with the protesters. (the "99% of cops are good" crowd doesn't get to have it both ways here)

Ole Vern is a veteran Trump supporter. Yeah the far left far right extremist are really helping Trump's campaign. Yep Trump's own DHS has put out multiple intelligence reports of far right extremist inciting violence and spreading mis-information. What batter way to kick off their boogaloo than convincing a racist President and subsequent DOJ to essentially blame the "far-left" for all the rioting and looting. And in turn they can try to convince the country. How many Trump supporters are ok with what's happening in Portland? They seem to be supporting it. I guess the Constitution and civil liberties don't apply to those you perceive as enemies. I bet Russia is loving this shit!

Looking forward to having the dictator in chief escorted out of the office.

[sherr]

How many Trump supporters are ok with what's happening in Portland? They seem to be supporting it. I guess the Constitution and civil liberties don't apply to those you perceive as enemies. I bet Russia is loving this shit!

The really ironic thing is that all the anti-freedom stuff that the right wing has been rooting for for the last few years ("Don't disrespect the flag!" "Don't criticize the president (when they're Republican)!" "Get those Muslims out of my country!" "Always excuse and support police, no matter how wrong they are!" "Hooray for secret police abducting peaceful protestors in the name of law and order!") is exactly the same stuff that China is doing right this very second. And they pretend to be outraged when China does it.

If it didn't involve learning another language and moving to a majority-non-white country I truly think they would be happier over there. They seem to prefer the Communist way of doing things.

[talltexan]

It's not the communism, it's the authoritarianism/strong-man-ism.

[dignam]

Last I checked, Trump is behind in crucial states like Michigan, Florida, PA and Wisconsin.  He loses those states (or even just 2 or three of them) and it's over.

Of course...polls are just polls.

[jinga nation]

Last I checked, Trump is behind in crucial states like Michigan, Florida, PA and Wisconsin.  He loses those states (or even just 2 or three of them) and it's over.

Of course...polls are just polls.

Fake polls. Y'all know what the polls said about Hillary winning.

Go Vote! For your and America's well-being.

Fact is the older population votes, the younger ones don't show up despite bragging on social media. Happened in Brexit voting too.

[dignam]

Last I checked, Trump is behind in crucial states like Michigan, Florida, PA and Wisconsin.  He loses those states (or even just 2 or three of them) and it's over.

Of course...polls are just polls.

Fake polls. Y'all know what the polls said about Hillary winning.

Go Vote! For your and America's well-being.

Fact is the older population votes, the younger ones don't show up despite bragging on social media. Happened in Brexit voting too.

Got all signed up for absentee already.

[nereo]

Fake polls. Y'all know what the polls said about Hillary winning.

Overall the 2016 polls were reasonably accurate, showing a close race the favored Clinton.  The week before the election fivethirtyeight showed a Clinton victory with roughly 7/10 odds, and that she would likely win the popular vote by 2-3%, which is in line with what happened. Polls showed that Trump's path to victory would require eeking out wins in several states that were within 1-2%, which he obviously pulled off. The results from most states were within the polling margin of error.  At the individual state level there weren't any blown-out-of-the-water surprises.  Trump simply won the majority of states which were polling closely the week before.  Given a deluge of bad news for the Clinton campaign (e.g. Comey's re-opening of the email server investigation) the week before that's hardly surprising.
tl;dr - "fake polls" is a dead horse.