Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?

[Travis]

Pennsylvania is not the issue. Sure, it is needed by Trump, but it doesn't completely hurt Biden. All eyes on MI, WI, and NV now.

I think Penn will be Trump's first target in his lawsuits.

[bbqbonelesswing]

Pennsylvania is not the issue. Sure, it is needed by Trump, but it doesn't completely hurt Biden. All eyes on MI, WI, and NV now.

I think Penn will be Trump's first target in his lawsuits.

Yes; they are desperate to prevent the late ballots from being counted. Which is why we dropped ours off weeks ago ;)

[NaN]

Yeah, but they should focus on MI, WI, or NV. If they are not confident they will get those states the PA may just all be for show. Rulings could effect elections in the future.

[DadJokes]

Seeing as we have the technology, why isn't voting more streamlined? At this point, we should be able to vote online. I know that hacking is a concern, but surely that risk could be mitigated.

[NaN]

If Biden only carries the election by one electoral vote (very possible), would faithless electoral college voters be a problem?

[NaN]

Ah, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/10/21/can-the-electoral-college-be-subverted-by-faithless-electors/

If Biden wins at 270, then faithless electors would only benefit him with the majority in the House being the Democrats.

[sherr]

Seeing as we have the technology, why isn't voting more streamlined? At this point, we should be able to vote online. I know that hacking is a concern, but surely that risk could be mitigated.

I say this as a Principal Software Engineer: You could not possibly be more wrong. Online voting is a terrible horrible no-good very-bad idea and always will be. The most secure form of voting will always be paper ballots (with automatic auditing of a random selection of them preferred).

Obligatory XKCD.

Some further reading.

[Travis]

Seeing as we have the technology, why isn't voting more streamlined? At this point, we should be able to vote online. I know that hacking is a concern, but surely that risk could be mitigated.

I voted absentee in my state online. I registered on a portal, was emailed a pdf ballot and affidavit, printed and filled them out, and scanned them back into this portal. Security and verification was in line with how you'd log into your bank.

[shenlong55]

Seeing as we have the technology, why isn't voting more streamlined? At this point, we should be able to vote online. I know that hacking is a concern, but surely that risk could be mitigated.

I say this as a Principal Software Engineer: You could not possibly be more wrong. Online voting is a terrible horrible no-good very-bad idea and always will be. The most secure form of voting will always be paper ballots (with automatic auditing of a random selection of them preferred).

Obligatory XKCD.

Some further reading.

What about having a separate secured voting network rather than using the internet?

[maizefolk]

Seeing as we have the technology, why isn't voting more streamlined? At this point, we should be able to vote online. I know that hacking is a concern, but surely that risk could be mitigated.

I say this as a Principal Software Engineer: You could not possibly be more wrong. Online voting is a terrible horrible no-good very-bad idea and always will be. The most secure form of voting will always be paper ballots (with automatic auditing of a random selection of them preferred).

Obligatory XKCD.

Some further reading.

I completely agree with sherr (and the author of XKCD, and current experts on voting and the internet) on this.

[GuitarStv]

In Canada I can either vote in person (on the same day, and at the same time as every other Canadian) at the early voting day, or at the final voting day.  There are sometimes lines - in 20 years of voting I've once had to stand in line for 15 minutes, which was pretty outrageous (usually it's much shorter than that).  If I want to vote by mail you send elections Canada a note saying you want to vote by mail . . . and then that's how you vote from then on.  Your personal address information is automatically updated every time you file taxes, but you can also contact elections Canada to update the information if necessary.

Online voting aside, the voting system in the US is so weird.  There should be one set of standardized rules across the country.  It makes no sense at all that each state votes in a completely different way to a completely different rule set.  Some Americans can vote by mail, some can't.  Every kind of mail in voting is different.  The system is purposely set up to make voting difficult in many places.  Hour plus waits in line are just accepted as the norm by everyone.

[sui generis]

In Canada I can either vote in person (on the same day, and at the same time as every other Canadian) at the early voting day, or at the final voting day.  There are sometimes lines - in 20 years of voting I've once had to stand in line for 15 minutes, which was pretty outrageous (usually it's much shorter than that).  If I want to vote by mail you send elections Canada a note saying you want to vote by mail . . . and then that's how you vote from then on.  Your personal address information is automatically updated every time you file taxes, but you can also contact elections Canada to update the information if necessary.

Online voting aside, the voting system in the US is so weird.  There should be one set of standardized rules across the country.  It makes no sense at all that each state votes in a completely different way to a completely different rule set.  Some Americans can vote by mail, some can't.  Every kind of mail in voting is different.  The system is purposely set up to make voting difficult in many places.  Hour plus waits in line are just accepted as the norm by everyone.

That's federalism for you.

[dcheesi]

Seeing as we have the technology, why isn't voting more streamlined? At this point, we should be able to vote online. I know that hacking is a concern, but surely that risk could be mitigated.

I say this as a Principal Software Engineer: You could not possibly be more wrong. Online voting is a terrible horrible no-good very-bad idea and always will be. The most secure form of voting will always be paper ballots (with automatic auditing of a random selection of them preferred).

Obligatory XKCD.

Some further reading.

What about having a separate secured voting network rather than using the internet?

That still doesn't solve all of the problems, some of which are seemingly inherent in the secret-ballot voting concept:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/09/why-online-voting-is-harder-than-online-banking/
and more:
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/09/why-experts-are-overwhelmingly-skeptical-of-online-voting/

[sherr]

What about having a separate secured voting network rather than using the internet?

How would everyone get access to it to submit their ballot? But no, it doesn't even matter. The problem is not the transmission of the ballot across the network, the fundamental problem with e-voting is that it's too easy to fake / hack and then there's literally no way to recount / audit / verify which of the ballots are real and which are not. Add to that the private-ballot concerns that comes from everyone's ballot being literally right there next to their name in some database, ripe for the taking.

Read that second link from the AAAS.

[Psychstache]

In Canada I can either vote in person (on the same day, and at the same time as every other Canadian) at the early voting day, or at the final voting day.  There are sometimes lines - in 20 years of voting I've once had to stand in line for 15 minutes, which was pretty outrageous (usually it's much shorter than that).  If I want to vote by mail you send elections Canada a note saying you want to vote by mail . . . and then that's how you vote from then on.  Your personal address information is automatically updated every time you file taxes, but you can also contact elections Canada to update the information if necessary.

Online voting aside, the voting system in the US is so weird.  There should be one set of standardized rules across the country.  It makes no sense at all that each state votes in a completely different way to a completely different rule set.  Some Americans can vote by mail, some can't.  Every kind of mail in voting is different.  The system is purposely set up to make voting difficult in many places.  Hour plus waits in line are just accepted as the norm by everyone.

Land masses are people too, my friend. /s

[NaN]

What about early-voting across every state for at least a month? The Republicans do stuff like they did in Texas, limiting drop-off voting in Harris County to one location and then suing on the drive-thru voting stations.

The bigger issue here is large population centers are under-served for voting access. The Republicans know that it would be bad to make it easier for them to vote. Meanwhile, there are many many other counties that serve Republican voters.

States get to make most state election choices.

[bacchi]

It is the single electoral vote in Nebraska (or Maine when if Biden gets all 4) that makes the difference.

Biden has 227. Add NV (+6), AZ (+11), MI (+16), and WI (+10), that's 270.

As I said,

Here's the list assuming Georgia also goes to Trump. Any one of these means Biden probably wins. Trump has to sweep all of these.

• NC
• PA
• OH
• AZ

This is assuming Texas goes to Trump, and that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota go to Biden. Any shift in those then expect the direction the final result to be the same.

If Biden takes AZ that's huge. Trump had to sweep that entire list. But, Biden can not lose NV, WI, or MI. Wisconsin looks pretty darn close, MI has a lot of outstanding ballots, and NV is likely Biden.

Trump carried Texas (no surprises?), and NC looks highly likely Trump. Georgia, for whatever reason, I wake up this morning and read @shuffler 's post that it is now no longer very likely Trump? Wow. Again, if Georgia flips it is game over for Trump.

Pennsylvania is not the issue. Sure, it is needed by Trump, but it doesn't completely hurt Biden. All eyes on MI, WI, and NV now.

Ah, right, I forgot about the Maine state 2.

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1323988214819000320

Biden camp feels confident in WI and the MI votes remaining. Georgia could also tip it if Nevada goes to Trump.

Damn, Pennsylvania is slow.

[Roland of Gilead]

I think now *maybe* Biden wins because of the high % of mail in ballots will tip in favor.

But it is going to be ugly and probably in the courts for the next month.

I am trying to figure out how to play this in the markets because at the end of the day, money gives you options.

[OzzieandHarriet]

Without the Senate a Biden administration will have a tough slog.

[bacchi]

Without the Senate a Biden administration will have a tough slog.

Thankfully, and sadly, Trump has expanded the power of the Presidency. Biden would have some discretion to shift funds around.

The Georgia Perdue-Ossof race could still go into a runoff.

[Montecarlo]

Trumps comments early this morning are disgraceful and I’m happy he is losing, but ABC news is falsely claiming he said he wants to stop counting votes.

[bacchi]

Trumps comments early this morning are disgraceful and I’m happy he is losing, but ABC news is falsely claiming he said he wants to stop counting votes.

He said that last night at his own party's press conference and a lot of people cheered him.

He said, on TV, "We want all voting to stop. We don't them to find any ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list."

[Roland of Gilead]

I am pretty pleased with the election.  I didn't want a blue wave and I didn't want Trump either.

I am not thrilled with the idea of Harris as president so I wish Biden the best of health.

A nice gridlock with a president who doesn't rant on twitter would suit me just fine.

[Just Joe]

I really thought Kanye had it.

I was surprised to see him actually on the ticket! I thought that was just rumor grade comedy stuff.

[JLee]

Without the Senate a Biden administration will have a tough slog.

Yep, no more judge confirmations for the next two (or four) years..

[sherr]

Trumps comments early this morning are disgraceful and I’m happy he is losing, but ABC news is CORRECTLY claiming he said he wants to stop counting votes.

He said that last night at his own party's press conference and a lot of people cheered him.

Video.

[Roland of Gilead]

I really thought Kanye had it.

I was surprised to see him actually on the ticket! I thought that was just rumor grade comedy stuff.

He got like 7000 votes in Michigan.   It would not be so comedy if Trump won because of that though.

[Montecarlo]

Trumps comments early this morning are disgraceful and I’m happy he is losing, but ABC news is falsely claiming he said he wants to stop counting votes.

He said that last night at his own party's press conference and a lot of people cheered him.

No, he didn’t say he wanted to stop counting votes.  He said “we want all voting to stop” (which it did, hours before he said it)

[Just Joe]

Seeing as we have the technology, why isn't voting more streamlined? At this point, we should be able to vote online. I know that hacking is a concern, but surely that risk could be mitigated.

Easier to disenfranchise people with complicated voting rules and methods? Good question.

Honestly - this is 2020. How about we vote like we file taxes - online?

[Just Joe]

Seeing as we have the technology, why isn't voting more streamlined? At this point, we should be able to vote online. I know that hacking is a concern, but surely that risk could be mitigated.

I say this as a Principal Software Engineer: You could not possibly be more wrong. Online voting is a terrible horrible no-good very-bad idea and always will be. The most secure form of voting will always be paper ballots (with automatic auditing of a random selection of them preferred).

Obligatory XKCD.

Some further reading.

What about having a separate secured voting network rather than using the internet?

Or - vote online and it is validated by a mail in ballot.

[GuitarStv]

Without the Senate a Biden administration will have a tough slog.

Yep, no more judge confirmations for the next two (or four) years..

Given the significant slant towards Republicans that the Senate has, there may well be no more Democratic judge confirmations ever.

[sherr]

No, he didn’t say he wanted to stop counting votes.  He said “we want all voting to stop” (which it did, hours before he said it)

"We want all voting to stop. We don't want them to find any ballots at 4 o'clock in the morning and add them to the list." Speaking about states that hadn't even counted half of their votes yet.

[bbqbonelesswing]

Trumps comments early this morning are disgraceful and I’m happy he is losing, but ABC news is falsely claiming he said he wants to stop counting votes.

He said that last night at his own party's press conference and a lot of people cheered him.

No, he didn’t say he wanted to stop counting votes.  He said “we want all voting to stop” (which it did, hours before he said it)

He said, "We want all voting to stop. We don't want them to find any ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list."

[Just Joe]

What about early-voting across every state for at least a month? The Republicans do stuff like they did in Texas, limiting drop-off voting in Harris County to one location and then suing on the drive-thru voting stations.

The bigger issue here is large population centers are under-served for voting access. The Republicans know that it would be bad to make it easier for them to vote. Meanwhile, there are many many other counties that serve Republican voters.

States get to make most state election choices.

ALL reasons I won't vote for the GOP any time soon.

[bacchi]

Trumps comments early this morning are disgraceful and I’m happy he is losing, but ABC news is falsely claiming he said he wants to stop counting votes.

He said that last night at his own party's press conference and a lot of people cheered him.

No, he didn’t say he wanted to stop counting votes.  He said “we want all voting to stop” (which it did, hours before he said it)

That's...the same thing. ???

Are you being pedantic?

[Montecarlo]

No, he didn’t say he wanted to stop counting votes.  He said “we want all voting to stop” (which it did, hours before he said it)

"We want all voting to stop. We don't want them to find any ballots at 4 o'clock in the morning and add them to the list." Speaking about states that hadn't even counted half of their votes yet.

Seems carefully crafted to be inflammatory without saying anything controversial.  Ballots already cast are good, but polls are closed.

[sherr]

Honestly - this is 2020. How about we vote like we file taxes - online?

Your taxes returns are not secret from the government. Secret, secure, online. Pick any two (at most).

Do you honestly want Trump to be able to look up who in the federal government didn't vote for him? Or any president for that matter?

[Montecarlo]

Trumps comments early this morning are disgraceful and I’m happy he is losing, but ABC news is falsely claiming he said he wants to stop counting votes.

He said that last night at his own party's press conference and a lot of people cheered him.

No, he didn’t say he wanted to stop counting votes.  He said “we want all voting to stop” (which it did, hours before he said it)

That's...the same thing. ???

Are you being pedantic?

Definitely not the same thing.  The media needs to be more accurate in its reporting.

[John Galt incarnate!]

In Canada I can either vote in person (on the same day, and at the same time as every other Canadian) at the early voting day, or at the final voting day.  There are sometimes lines - in 20 years of voting I've once had to stand in line for 15 minutes, which was pretty outrageous (usually it's much shorter than that).  If I want to vote by mail you send elections Canada a note saying you want to vote by mail . . . and then that's how you vote from then on.  Your personal address information is automatically updated every time you file taxes, but you can also contact elections Canada to update the information if necessary.

Online voting aside, the voting system in the US is so weird.  There should be one set of standardized rules across the country.  It makes no sense at all that each state votes in a completely different way to a completely different rule set.  Some Americans can vote by mail, some can't.  Every kind of mail in voting is different.  The system is purposely set up to make voting difficult in many places.  Hour plus waits in line are just accepted as the norm by everyone.

That's federalism for you.

I adamantly oppose any encroachment on any of the states' prerogatives under the 10th Amendment.

[Just Joe]

Honestly - this is 2020. How about we vote like we file taxes - online?

Your taxes returns are not secret from the government. Secret, secure, online. Pick any two (at most).

Do you honestly want Trump to be able to look up who in the federal government didn't vote for him? Or any president for that matter?

Good point!

[bacchi]

Trumps comments early this morning are disgraceful and I’m happy he is losing, but ABC news is falsely claiming he said he wants to stop counting votes.

He said that last night at his own party's press conference and a lot of people cheered him.

No, he didn’t say he wanted to stop counting votes.  He said “we want all voting to stop” (which it did, hours before he said it)

That's...the same thing. ???

Are you being pedantic?

Definitely not the same thing.  The media needs to be more accurate in its reporting.

Ok, you're right.

Given his Supreme Court statement, he was being circumspect about his desire to stop counting mail-in votes.

[John Galt incarnate!]

  The media needs to be more accurate in its reporting.

So do the pollsters, they've got another GREAT BIG BLACK EYE this morning.

[Montecarlo]

  The media needs to be more accurate in its reporting.

So do the pollsters, they've got another GREAT BIG BLACK EYE this morning.

Even if Biden wins, polling much worse than 2016 imo

[Montecarlo]

Given his Supreme Court statement, he was being circumspect about his desire to stop counting mail-in votes.

Agreed, and IMO he’s a disgrace...

[ctuser1]

Dems still have a narrow path to a senate control.

They have to hold on to Gary Peter' seat in Minnesota. That seems likely given Wayne County (that has Detroit) is only reporting 70% of the votes now. If voting trends hold, that single county alone should wipe out the current 25k lead John James has over Peters.

If they do hang on to Gary Peters' seat, then they need two more seats from somewhere. At play (barely) is Maine, assuming Sara Gideon narrows the lead and the ranked choice votes from Lisa Savage comes into play. Also at play is the two potential Georgia runoffs. I am thinking that the potentially lower turnout in the runoff can benefits democrats (sh**t, I'm becoming evil) because the core base would be plenty energized about the senate control due to all the things that are at stake.

But we will see.

------------------------
As for the presidential election:
1. AZ is a foregone conclusion. That would get Biden to 227+11 = 238.
2. WI and MI are almost foregone conclusions as well (based on what ballots are remaining). That would get Biden to 238 + 10 + 16 = 264.

So, Biden next needs any one of Nevada (won't report anything more till Thursday), PA, NC and GA.

If I had to bet $10, I'd say Biden will win GA, PA and Nevada. NC is very difficult to call, yet!!

 

[jim555]

Honestly - this is 2020. How about we vote like we file taxes - online?

Your taxes returns are not secret from the government. Secret, secure, online. Pick any two (at most).

Do you honestly want Trump to be able to look up who in the federal government didn't vote for him? Or any president for that matter?

There are patents on voting systems with cryptographic blind signatures, it lets someone vote with anonymity and is secure.

In theory it could be done, in reality I think a paper trail is much better.

[GuitarStv]

In Canada I can either vote in person (on the same day, and at the same time as every other Canadian) at the early voting day, or at the final voting day.  There are sometimes lines - in 20 years of voting I've once had to stand in line for 15 minutes, which was pretty outrageous (usually it's much shorter than that).  If I want to vote by mail you send elections Canada a note saying you want to vote by mail . . . and then that's how you vote from then on.  Your personal address information is automatically updated every time you file taxes, but you can also contact elections Canada to update the information if necessary.

Online voting aside, the voting system in the US is so weird.  There should be one set of standardized rules across the country.  It makes no sense at all that each state votes in a completely different way to a completely different rule set.  Some Americans can vote by mail, some can't.  Every kind of mail in voting is different.  The system is purposely set up to make voting difficult in many places.  Hour plus waits in line are just accepted as the norm by everyone.

That's federalism for you.

I adamantly oppose any encroachment on any of the states' prerogatives under the 10th Amendment.

Not a fan of democracy, eh?

[John Galt incarnate!]

Seeing as we have the technology, why isn't voting more streamlined? At this point, we should be able to vote online. I know that hacking is a concern, but surely that risk could be mitigated.

I say this as a Principal Software Engineer: You could not possibly be more wrong. Online voting is a terrible horrible no-good very-bad idea and always will be. The most secure form of voting will always be paper ballots (with automatic auditing of a random selection of them preferred).

Obligatory XKCD.

Some further reading.

Even if the security of online voting could be perfected there would no end to conspiracy theories about hacked elections, stolen votes, etc.

[John Galt incarnate!]

In Canada I can either vote in person (on the same day, and at the same time as every other Canadian) at the early voting day, or at the final voting day.  There are sometimes lines - in 20 years of voting I've once had to stand in line for 15 minutes, which was pretty outrageous (usually it's much shorter than that).  If I want to vote by mail you send elections Canada a note saying you want to vote by mail . . . and then that's how you vote from then on.  Your personal address information is automatically updated every time you file taxes, but you can also contact elections Canada to update the information if necessary.

Online voting aside, the voting system in the US is so weird.  There should be one set of standardized rules across the country.  It makes no sense at all that each state votes in a completely different way to a completely different rule set.  Some Americans can vote by mail, some can't.  Every kind of mail in voting is different.  The system is purposely set up to make voting difficult in many places.  Hour plus waits in line are just accepted as the norm by everyone.

That's federalism for you.

I adamantly oppose any encroachment on any of the states' prerogatives under the 10th Amendment.

Not a fan of democracy, eh?

Under the Supremacy Clause there are already federal rules that apply to federal elections.

 All dispersions of power,  including  dispersions of power under federalism are inherently democratic.


During a lecture at a law school in Hawaii Justice Scalia said "It's game over" if a concentration of power ever obtains.   

[JLee]

In Canada I can either vote in person (on the same day, and at the same time as every other Canadian) at the early voting day, or at the final voting day.  There are sometimes lines - in 20 years of voting I've once had to stand in line for 15 minutes, which was pretty outrageous (usually it's much shorter than that).  If I want to vote by mail you send elections Canada a note saying you want to vote by mail . . . and then that's how you vote from then on.  Your personal address information is automatically updated every time you file taxes, but you can also contact elections Canada to update the information if necessary.

Online voting aside, the voting system in the US is so weird.  There should be one set of standardized rules across the country.  It makes no sense at all that each state votes in a completely different way to a completely different rule set.  Some Americans can vote by mail, some can't.  Every kind of mail in voting is different.  The system is purposely set up to make voting difficult in many places.  Hour plus waits in line are just accepted as the norm by everyone.

That's federalism for you.

I adamantly oppose any encroachment on any of the states' prerogatives under the 10th Amendment.

Not a fan of democracy, eh?

Under the Supremacy Clause there are already federal rules that apply to federal elections.

 All dispersions of power,  including  dispersions of power under federalism are inherently democratic.


During a lecture at a law school in Hawaii Justice Scalia said "it's game over" if a concentration of power ever obtains.   

Kinda like McConnell being able to control which President gets to confirm judges!