Old Bernie is Running

[Samuel]

I admit I've never been a huge Bernie fan and the MSM always portrays him as some crazy loud far left guy, flailing his arms about yelling about god knows what.

I have to say that it was sooo refreshing to see Bernie in this type of long format interview on Rogan's podcast. Yang and Gabbard also went on Rogan and i enjoyed both of those podcasts as well. Bernie's already has 6 million views in 2 days. He came off far more rational in this type of format and i thoroughly enjoyed it. I may not agree with everything he says, but it is just nice to here stuff from the horses mouth when the interviewer isn't trying to twist their words or play to some agenda. I'd love to see a point in time where every presidential candidate does this type of long format interview on youtube.

I also listened to that interview and came away impressed. I haven't heard much from Bernie since the 2016 primaries but I get why he attracts so much love. His cohesive message and the sincerity with which he delivers it is compelling, even if I find some of his specific policy proposals rather poorly thought out. I thought he also showed what a super sharp 77 year old sounds like, and makes both Trump and Biden look worse by comparison.

[pecunia]

Bernie says to lock up Fossil Fuel Execs:

https://www.quora.com/Bernie-Sanders-said-Fossil-fuel-executives-should-be-criminally-prosecuted-for-the-destruction-they-have-knowingly-caused-What-is-your-view-on-this

Did old Bernie go too far this time?  The right wing press is really chewing on this.  Bernie has tough hide.

I like this guy.  He is kind of like the only attack dog out there for some of these things.  He definitely doesn't let business go on as usual. 

And no - You shouldn't lock honest men up for running large organizations like oil and coal companies.

[GuitarStv]

I don't believe that they should be locked up.  They haven't broken any laws.  The problem is that it's legal to cause wanton environmental destruction and damage.  That needs to be changed.

Then we can lock up these 'honest men' running large corporations who knowingly destroy the world we live in to buy a few extra ivory back scratchers.

[sherr]

And no - You shouldn't lock honest men up for running large organizations like oil and coal companies.

I don't believe that they should be locked up.  They haven't broken any laws.

It depends actually. Lying to investors is illegal and should be vigorously prosecuted because it undermines the whole legitimacy of the stock market. The question would be if they were being honest about the science of global warming and how it could impact the future of the company in their investor meetings.

[pecunia]

This one sort of bugs me.  Old Bernie used a conservative statistic to guesstimate the number of bankruptcies caused by medical bills in a year.  The Washington Post wrote an article basically calling him a liar.  According to this Rolling Stone article, their assertion is pure hocus pocus.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/bernie-sanders-medical-bankruptcy-washington-post-fact-check-878120/

It seems to be an example of smoke once again being blown over the real issue.  People are being hurt because they can't pay their medical bills.  Some are being financially ruined.  Mr. Sanders wants to change this so that this doesn't happen.  Seems like to nitpick over exact figures may be a waste of time.

It would make a lot of things easier if they had single payer.  It would make it easier to be FI.  It would make it easier to retire.

[ecchastang]

Age shouldn't be a huge factor, but it is a little concerning that Old Bernie, based on actuarial statistics, has a 23% of not completing his first term in office, if elected.  Biden is 21% and Warren 8%.  Trump, due to age has a 15% statistical chance of not completing his second term if elected.  For these older candidates, VP selection is critical. 

[LennStar]

Age shouldn't be a huge factor, but it is a little concerning that Old Bernie, based on actuarial statistics, has a 23% of not completing his first term in office, if elected.  Biden is 21% and Warren 8%.  Trump, due to age has a 15% statistical chance of not completing his second term if elected.  For these older candidates, VP selection is critical.

Actually that rate should be a lot lower for him (and the others you list). First of all he is not a poor lad that had to work in cancer inducing professions.
Second, as POTUS you are a lot more under scrutiny from doctors :D

Of yourse you could always say the stress is far worse than the benefits.

Anyway, a clear case for statistics don't tell you anything about the individual case ;)

[pecunia]

Statistics are one of the best ways to lie and cheat.  Bernie looks pretty sharp.  Elizabeth Warren looks very sharp.  Biden not so much.  Trump looks bad for reasons other than his age.

It's not just them.  It's the people they have around them.  In voting for any of these people you are kind of voting for a philosophy.

[pecunia]

Bernie has added health debt forgiveness to his long list of promised benefits.

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-bernie-sanders-teases-plan-to-cancel-81-billion-in-americans-medical-debt/2019/08/30/35701e54-cb95-11e9-a4f3-c081a126de70_story.html?noredirect=on

When I first heard this one, I thought he's really gone too far.  Then I heard a news announcer put the bill in perspective.  It is much less to pay for this debt than was spent to blow up those places in the Middle East.  And, they are still over there.  Medical debt has caused more than a little angst among folks in the US. 

[pecunia]

Looks like old Bernie had a heart attack.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/bernie-sanders-had-heart-attack-week-campaign-says-n1062736

Maybe he is too old for the presidency.  Nobody else quite like him.  He has changed the face of American politics.  I think for the better in many cases.

[Bateaux]

Looks like old Bernie had a heart attack.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/bernie-sanders-had-heart-attack-week-campaign-says-n1062736

Maybe he is too old for the presidency.  Nobody else quite like him.  He has changed the face of American politics.  I think for the better in many cases.

. I love Bernie but it's time to go.  He did help bring about many new ideas that are possible now that we're crazy in the past.

[LennStar]

The old guy was already kicking again yesterday
https://boingboing.net/2019/10/04/bernie-sanders-discharged-from.html

Of course that does not really say anything about the severity. But getting stents isn't exactly that big thing today anymore and getting released 2 days later is normal.

[KBecks]

The issue is, how will he be doing over the next 4.5 years.

[partgypsy]

Yes. The presidency is not a job where there is a lot of down time (trump notwithstanding).

[aetheldrea]

[... many new ideas that are possible now that we're crazy...

Freudian apostrophe slip? :-)

[pecunia]

Looks like he is healed up.  He had a big rally in New York City.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/19/bernie-sanders-ocasio-cortez-endorsement-rally-051491

[pecunia]

Old Bernie leads in NH poll.

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/bernie-sanders-reclaims-leads-in-new-hampshire-primary-in-latest-poll-1.8057577

[pecunia]

Old Bernie won the NH primary.  Old Bernie leads in National polls.

It may be him up against a billionaire that is going all out to buy an election.  Will people go with principled Bernie or sell out to the highest bidder? 

[Bloop Bloop]

He wants to abolish medical debt? Sucks for those who paid for (either directly or via their employer) health insurance, huh.

He wants to abolish student debt? Sucks for those who earned scholarships or paid back their debt from their graduate jobs.

Why choose medical and student debt? Why not abolish mortgage debt? I'd love to have the debts waived on my investment property. That way I could buy more property. Hopefully that debt could be waived too.

[pecunia]

One does not choose when they get sick.  There does seem to be a certain fairness about this one.  Fate has dealt the sick one a bad blow already.  Mankind can do one better than fate and not add to the bad luck by adding debt.

Student debt?  Well - As a society we should train our young for the needs of the future.  Here, there could be bad choices and I consider that perhaps all debt should not be cancelled across the board.  I was in a hotel last year and the clerk behind the counter was telling me of the high college debt incurred in working on his philosophy degree before he dropped out.  I have the pragmatic opinion that maybe Society doesn't need very many philosophy degrees and maybe there is no value to Society to pay for some degrees.  I think there should be some conditions before just buying off these college debts.

Mortgage debt - The purchase of a home is an individual choice.  It's not like being sick and I don't see any value to society in buying off this debt.  It is not an efficient use of precious tax dollars.

[wenchsenior]

It's all pretty immaterial to argue about these things b/c none of Bernie's policies are gonna pass if he becomes president, regardless of whether people support them or not.

[LennStar]

I was in a hotel last year and the clerk behind the counter was telling me of the high college debt incurred in working on his philosophy degree before he dropped out.  I have the pragmatic opinion that maybe Society doesn't need very many philosophy degrees

I actually think we have way way not enough philosophy degrees. Just look at how many people can't think a bit!
We certainly need less investment banker degrees or advertisement degrees, but philosophy? No.

[maizefolk]

I was in a hotel last year and the clerk behind the counter was telling me of the high college debt incurred in working on his philosophy degree before he dropped out.  I have the pragmatic opinion that maybe Society doesn't need very many philosophy degrees

I actually think we have way way not enough philosophy degrees. Just look at how many people can't think a bit!

To me that sounds like an argument for more teaching of reasoning and critical thinking skills at both the secondary level (high school) and at the college level (college-wide requirements) rather than an argument for more philosophy majors.

Right now philosophy majors are one out of every two hundred and fifty new college graduates. Even if they grew to one in one hundred or one in fifty I don't think this would produce a noticeable change in the thinking/reasoning ability of the average college graduate.

And keep in mind that the majority of americans don't have/won't get a college degree, regardless of major.

[GuitarStv]

Why not abolish mortgage debt? I'd love to have the debts waived on my investment property. That way I could buy more property. Hopefully that debt could be waived too.

Mortgage debt has been subject to significant government subsides for ages in the US, hasn't it?  I seem to remember reading something about mortgage deductions . . .

[MDM]

Why not abolish mortgage debt? I'd love to have the debts waived on my investment property. That way I could buy more property. Hopefully that debt could be waived too.

Mortgage debt has been subject to significant government subsides for ages in the US, hasn't it?  I seem to remember reading something about mortgage deductions . . .

Depends on your definition of "significant".

There's also a difference between eliminating "debt" vs. (in some situations) allowing a tax deduction (not credit) for the interest on that debt.

We currently allow some people to take deductions for interest on both student loans and mortgages.

[GuitarStv]

Ah.  I didn't know that student loans were tax deductible.

[pecunia]

It's all pretty immaterial to argue about these things b/c none of Bernie's policies are gonna pass if he becomes president, regardless of whether people support them or not.

That's most likely true.  However, if he even gets things pushed in some of these directions, it may be considered a victory.  For example, if he gets some sort of single payer tacked on to Obamacare, that may be considered a victory.  If Trump and company win again, that law may be gone.

Some of the other candidates are ready to compromise right out of the gate.  The opposition will roll over them.  The plutocrats will have sport with them.  Bernie, on the other hand, will make life miserable for them.  I figure it will end up that they will throw him a bone or two to chew on to shut him up for a while.  Once people see that things can get accomplished, they will beg for more bones and some good things will be done.

[jim555]

I think Bernie would get absolutely crushed.  The US is not that far left, especially in the swing states.

[Kris]

I think Bernie would get absolutely crushed.  The US is not that far left, especially in the swing states.

I think Trump thinks this, too.

[wenchsenior]

It's all pretty immaterial to argue about these things b/c none of Bernie's policies are gonna pass if he becomes president, regardless of whether people support them or not.

That's most likely true.  However, if he even gets things pushed in some of these directions, it may be considered a victory.  For example, if he gets some sort of single payer tacked on to Obamacare, that may be considered a victory.  If Trump and company win again, that law may be gone.

Some of the other candidates are ready to compromise right out of the gate.  The opposition will roll over them.  The plutocrats will have sport with them.  Bernie, on the other hand, will make life miserable for them.  I figure it will end up that they will throw him a bone or two to chew on to shut him up for a while.  Once people see that things can get accomplished, they will beg for more bones and some good things will be done.

This is possible.  However, he would have to get elected first.  Bernie has the best shot of winning (IMO) of any the further left candidates; however, I doubt ANY far left (by American standards) candidate can win, even against Trump (barring some sort of economic meltdown in the next 6 months, which looks unlikely). 

I'd have to see very strong head-to-head polling against Trump in Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan to begin to believe he could win.  I hope I'm wrong b/c the Dems seem to be heading that way....if anyone HAS seen any such polls among likely voters, I'd love to be reassured. 

[pecunia]

Looks like Bernie doesn't do so good against Trump in the Southern states.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

I kind of have an idea why.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

It's all pretty immaterial to argue about these things b/c none of Bernie's policies are gonna pass if he becomes president, regardless of whether people support them or not.

That's most likely true.  However, if he even gets things pushed in some of these directions, it may be considered a victory.  For example, if he gets some sort of single payer tacked on to Obamacare, that may be considered a victory.  If Trump and company win again, that law may be gone.

Some of the other candidates are ready to compromise right out of the gate.  The opposition will roll over them.  The plutocrats will have sport with them.  Bernie, on the other hand, will make life miserable for them.  I figure it will end up that they will throw him a bone or two to chew on to shut him up for a while.  Once people see that things can get accomplished, they will beg for more bones and some good things will be done.

This is possible.  However, he would have to get elected first.  Bernie has the best shot of winning (IMO) of any the further left candidates; however, I doubt ANY far left (by American standards) candidate can win, even against Trump (barring some sort of economic meltdown in the next 6 months, which looks unlikely). 

I'd have to see very strong head-to-head polling against Trump in Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan to begin to believe he could win.  I hope I'm wrong b/c the Dems seem to be heading that way....if anyone HAS seen any such polls among likely voters, I'd love to be reassured.

I think "far left" is the wrong way to categorize Sanders. The new domain over which battles will be fought will be on the populist versus internationalist axis. If Democrats accept that Trump has stumbled upon some especially compelling facet of the electorate's psyche then they will do best with a candidate like Sanders. That's why I agree that for those who believe the removal of Trump from office is the highest objective, Sanders is your man. For those thinking the system will reset itself after the departure of Trump in 2020 or 2024, go with {Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Biden, The Klob} (the best of these options is Buttigieg, imho, followed by The Klob but it's hard to see the Dems green-lighting a Midwesterner). For those who really want to double-down, go with Hillary for 2020 amidst the joys of a brokered convention. I normally don't like sequels but would pay a fortune to see Round 2 in HC vs Trump debates.

In considering all this, this post-mortem of the 2016 election is essential (Steve Bannon warning! But if you can't admit he was right about some things after a 3 year cool-down period, then your TDS might be terminal).

Speaking of head-to-head polls, I thought fivethrityeight argued that such polls are essentially worthless this early.

[wenchsenior]

I agree polls can't be taken seriously at this point.  Let me amend to: If Sanders wins the nomination, I would need to see some pretty robust polling at that point in the process to be convinced.

I hope you are correct that Bernie can win over swing state voters, if he wins the nom.  I just think the socialist label is going to scare them, along with the Dems' generally more pro-immigrant platform, and the open threat to take away the health insurance that people already have and give 'free' things to people (it doesn't matter that those policy promises will not happen; it will still scare them).  I'm not at all sure that Sander's less internationalist, more protectionist economic messaging will overcome those things.   I keep thinking of my father, who is a conservative leaning independent in one of the states that crucially swung for Trump. He voted for Trump (b/c for random reasons that he couldn't articulate he just hated Hillary, despite voting for her husband and also for Gore back in the day).  He's regretted his vote for Trump since about a month after the inauguration and bitches to me CONSTANTLY about how much he wants Trump removed from office and what a threat he is. 

BUT I think it very unlikely he will vote for any of the further left candidates the Dems are floating.  And he absolutely won't vote third party b/c he views it as a wasted vote.  I suspect he'd vote for Klobucharr or Gabbard or any boring Dem centrist (though probably not Buttigieg b/c he's old and kind of homophobic).  I'm pretty sure he'd vote for Bloomberg in a hot second. I am very skeptical that he'd vote for Bernie or Warren.  In fact, I suspect he might vote for Trump again (miserably) rather than vote for either of them.

But who knows, it's one data point.   I keep getting visions of a Goldwater style blowout if Sanders were to go up against Trump, but the vast majority of the country's votes are likely locked in anyway already, so that's probably not likely.

Problem is, I'm a cynical bitch who expects nothing good from humanity, so it colors all my expectations.  Y'all keep on believing, and I'll vote for whomever the Dems put up, even though I'm totally un-enthused about any of them.

 

[Bloop Bloop]

I think Sanders will get wedged. His socialist tendencies will be anathema both to the traditional conservative base and also to a significant portion of rich progressives who traditionally vote Democrat. And it's not just that he's for redistribution. He's also for a degree of protectionism, which is another thing that separates him from the Democratic mainstream.

I wouldn't vote for Sanders simply because I don't believe in that large a degree of redistribution, nor do I believe in protectionism. I'd rather see a successful migrant in the country, even if it comes at the cost of a local job.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I agree polls can't be taken seriously at this point.  Let me amend to: If Sanders wins the nomination, I would need to see some pretty robust polling at that point in the process to be convinced.

I hope you are correct that Bernie can win over swing state voters, if he wins the nom.  I just think the socialist label is going to scare them, along with the Dems' generally more pro-immigrant platform, and the open threat to take away the health insurance that people already have and give 'free' things to people (it doesn't matter that those policy promises will not happen; it will still scare them).  I'm not at all sure that Sander's less internationalist, more protectionist economic messaging will overcome those things.   I keep thinking of my father, who is a conservative leaning independent in one of the states that crucially swung for Trump. He voted for Trump (b/c for random reasons that he couldn't articulate he just hated Hillary, despite voting for her husband and also for Gore back in the day).  He's regretted his vote for Trump since about a month after the inauguration and bitches to me CONSTANTLY about how much he wants Trump removed from office and what a threat he is. 

BUT I think it very unlikely he will vote for any of the further left candidates the Dems are floating.  And he absolutely won't vote third party b/c he views it as a wasted vote.  I suspect he'd vote for Klobucharr or Gabbard or any boring Dem centrist (though probably not Buttigieg b/c he's old and kind of homophobic).  I'm pretty sure he'd vote for Bloomberg in a hot second. I am very skeptical that he'd vote for Bernie or Warren.  In fact, I suspect he might vote for Trump again (miserably) rather than vote for either of them.

But who knows, it's one data point.   I keep getting visions of a Goldwater style blowout if Sanders were to go up against Trump, but the vast majority of the country's votes are likely locked in anyway already, so that's probably not likely.

Problem is, I'm a cynical bitch who expects nothing good from humanity, so it colors all my expectations.  Y'all keep on believing, and I'll vote for whomever the Dems put up, even though I'm totally un-enthused about any of them.

This is why I think Gabbard could actually be a very good general campaign candidate even though she is not viable in the primaries. She can represent the extreme non-interventionist geopolitical elements of populism without being traced to a 60 year history of full-throated support of socialism. Imagining that Sanders could pivot much in the general election is not an easy thing. Here is where I would put odds on head-to-head matches vs Trump:

Gabbard: 45%
Sanders: 40%
Buttigieg: 30%
The Klob: 25%
Bloomberg: 20%
Biden: 15%

The question isn't so much about the habitual voter but the marginal one. What will make someone passionate about voting? I'm sure Trump is worried about being called a lying dog-faced pony solider!

[Samuel]

It was pointed out to me today that Pete Buttigieg could lose this election and run for president 10 more times and he would still be younger than Bernie is today.

Interesting bit of perspective.

[John Galt incarnate!]

I think Bernie would get absolutely crushed.  The US is not that far left, especially in the swing states.

I heard that some unionists in Nevada (and elsewhere)don't want to give up their employer-provided  health insurance which is not a plus for Bernie.

[pecunia]

It was pointed out to me today that Pete Buttigieg could lose this election and run for president 10 more times and he would still be younger than Bernie is today.

Interesting bit of perspective.

It certainly does let you know how much less experienced he is than old Bernie.  Both stated out a Mayors.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

“I would expect that sort of thing at a Trump rally.”

This fits perfectly with how I'm modelling this election. Very bullish sign for Sanders--and also note the topless protesters throwing fake blood around in NV the other day. Still, it's not as impressive as this but I can also understand why someone might still vote for Joe, who reassuringly knows the foreign policy [sic].

[pecunia]

Money can't buy happiness,........but maybe it can buy you the Presidency.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/bloomberg-surpasses-400m-in-ad-spending-for-2020-race

How much of that did he get from his tax cut?

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I wonder how much of it is his spending versus Sleepy Joe failing to inspire anyone and voters looking for an alternative leathery centrist. I will admit there is a meta-ironic appeal to the Bloomberg meme machine in its self-awareness of its own cynicism--as if that realization absolves the underlying strategy. I'm not convinced Bloomberg has any staying-power in the polls, but in any case, I'm going to go back to my side-hustle of making Instagram Mike memes for $15/hr.

In other news, I wonder if this new Bernie ad is bad fact-checking or purposefully a smear with respect to this incident. Trump is a quagmire of problematic quotes that could have been used with more veracity in place of that line but perhaps none slotted so well into the "first Jewish president" theme. Welcome to identity politics, Bernie.

[pecunia]

Hillary Clinton said nobody likes Bernie.   Well,...... It turns out the Russians like him!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvtLcpeoU8A

Maybe, they figure he'll usher in a period of peace and cooperation.  Bernie would be no fun as a president.

[HPstache]

Hillary Clinton said nobody likes Bernie.   Well,...... It turns out the Russians like him!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvtLcpeoU8A

Maybe, they figure he'll usher in a period of peace and cooperation.  Bernie would be no fun as a president.

So is this suggesting that as a candidate, you don't choose Russia, Russia chooses you? 

[jim555]

Russians helping Bernie in the news today.  Makes sense, Bernie will loose and Trump gets in again.

[pecunia]

Hillary Clinton said nobody likes Bernie.   Well,...... It turns out the Russians like him!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvtLcpeoU8A

Maybe, they figure he'll usher in a period of peace and cooperation.  Bernie would be no fun as a president.

So is this suggesting that as a candidate, you don't choose Russia, Russia chooses you?

Why would he choose Russia?  Russians don't vote here and they already have national health care.

[GuitarStv]

Weird how when the Russians help a Democrat there's denouncement of the practice . . . but when they help a Republican there are secret meetings, trips to Russia, denial the the help is going on, admission that the help is going on but denial that it's significant, admission that the help is going on but claims that there's nothing wrong with it . . .

Another example of how both parties are exactly the same I guess.

[pecunia]

Weird how when the Russians help a Democrat there's denouncement of the practice . . . but when they help a Republican there are secret meetings, trips to Russia, denial the the help is going on, admission that the help is going on but denial that it's significant, admission that the help is going on but claims that there's nothing wrong with it . . .

Another example of how both parties are exactly the same I guess.

Well - I don't remember Donald ranting against Mr. Putin.  So the response to this stuff hasn't been the same.

https://www.wired.com/story/bernie-sanders-russia-chaos-2020-election/

The above article says what they really want is a bit of chaos.  I'm thinkin' it worked when they helped get the current president elected.

Here's a paragraph from the lined article.

"Sanders did vote against the Magnitsky Act in 2012, a notorious Putin bugaboo, which could arguably make him a more palatable candidate to the Kremlin. But the distinction between Russia’s support for Trump and Sanders then, as now, is that Russia wanted only Trump to win. Promoting Sanders was simply another means to that end, driving a wedge between two already fraught factions of the Democratic Party."

The chaos thing makes sense.  Those folks don't like the US of A.  They are smart folks.  They are good with dirty tricks.

I wonder if they mess with other country's politics.  Canada, maybe, eh?

[LennStar]

Putin does not want Sanders. But he is smart. So if he announces he does, he can damage him, help Trump and that all for not even doing anything.

And, just to say it again, the USA is the very last country that should say something about foreign interference.

[pecunia]

Looks like old Bernie is winning in Nevada.  Was it Putin's help that did it?  I don't watch much TV but I get the idea that the talking heads aren't altogether pleased.

[jim555]

Trump will wipe the floor with Bernie.  He is the weakest nominee.  That is why the Russians want him nominated.  It will become a culture war campaign and Bernie will lose in a landslide.