I'm sure since you've been following the trends intensely, I'm sure the following questions should be very easy to respond to. Areas that I believe to be inconsistent with your reasoning.
- You say Indiana was a 'fuck it, we can't stop this monster' state. Do you consider Illinois as a 'fuck it, we can't stop this monster' state as well? If not, why do they have similar trends?
- You insinuate the response of Oregon, Maine, and Virginia are the reason they are in the bottom 15 states for total death (per 100k, sic.). Did Utah and Idaho have similar responses that led their success? (Also you included AK in your 'fuck it' list even though they have one of the lowest deaths per capita)
- California should absolutely be considered a 'point of entry' state considering the amount of traffic from Asia and that covid was probably spreading unmitigated since Jan. Why was Cali not hit as hard as the other early states?
- I'd argue GA could be considered a 'point of entry' state due to one of the busiest international airports and one of the first super-spreaders in the US. Remember the funeral that led to one of the largest infection rates in the world? But GA early on was spared the tragic fate that a state like PA endured. Are you prepared to argue that Georgia's response is what spared it?
To be blunt, I don't think you care about 'trends' at all. I think you cherry picked arguments from an incredibly complicated issue to fit what you already believed. The U.S. has incredibly diverse geography, climate, health outcomes, and cultures, all of which may contribute to spread. I think it's incredibly divisive to claim the deaths in the states whose politics you like happened because they were 'blindsided,' but those 'fuck it' states you dislike could have prevented 300k deaths if they weren't so 'negligent.'
Sure, why not? I'll try my best to answer your questions to the best of my ability.
1. Illinois (AKA Chicago) was hit VERY hard early April and May in 2020. All in all to be 16th in overall deaths per capita isn't too shabby in consideration of how early they were compromised by Covid. Illinois was "Top 10" in Covid deaths early on in the process, and they've slowly come down to 16th since that time. Thus, relative improvement. Take a look at "daily new deaths" curve on this website.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/Indiana was not hit all that hard early in April and May, was "bottom half" in regards to Covid deaths early on, but still managed to get to 12th place per current deaths per capita numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/indiana/ Basically, their mitigation efforts were either insufficient or poorly executed. Compare that to Ohio, which is middle of the pack, but has done a better job overall at their mitigation efforts after being hit a little later than the 1st wave.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/2. Yes -> Oregon, Maine, and Virginia are doing fairly well in deaths/capita from Covid (no insinuation here -> just data). Utah has also done remarkably well from a deaths point of view and should be commended. Multiple studies show that not smoking and staying active helps to keep from dying from this disease. I would note that Utah is in the top 5 for cases/capita, they just aren't dying, which is wonderful. Idaho seems to be doing fine as well. Overall, hard to get to places seem to have done better throughout this whole pandemic. See: Alaska/Hawaii/Wyoming/Vermont. I've been to Idaho, it is, in fact, hard to get there.
Arkansas was on that list because they are #15 on deaths/capita list despite barely being touched in the first wave.
Their "daily deaths" chart is interesting because it's just a slow, steady increase from May 2020 until January 2021.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/arkansas/3. Why didn't California get hit early? I think they actually did get hit early and had a great early response. 3 of the largest 4 communities of Chinese-Americans are in California.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_significant_Chinese-American_populationsIf you look at the above list, at least 9 of the top 10 by my eye got absolutely destroyed in the first wave. #1, NYC of course. [see also; Bergamo region of Italy]
It's remarkable that California is only 30th of 50 US states for deaths/capita. Compare California's "Daily New Deaths" curve to Arkansas, for example. Cali had 3 distinct waves, the first 2 were tamped down successfully.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/I do remember reading a lot of good press about San Francisco's efforts to mitigate the spread very early on, especially as it has a huge Chinese population. Even today, Greater San Fran area only has 5926 deaths despite a population of nearly 8 million people.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/coronavirus-map/ Considering how dense SF is, that's quite an achievement.
4. I also think Georgia did a good job early on despite getting hit hard. Philadelphia region and NE PA (NJ and NYC commuters) were hit early as well. That's why they are both in the top 20 for deaths/capita.
Hope this helps with understanding the crazy year we have had. I do not think it's divisive to look at data and provide an interpretation. I much prefer to do this than to bury my head in the sand and say, "I guess it was all inevitable". The real data hounds will take a look at this stuff and give a comprehensive country by country and state by state comparison one day, but the crisis has to end 1st.