This seems like wishful thinking. With just seniors, between 5% and 6% of the federal budget goes to cover the difference between Medicare revenues and Medicare expenditures. Health insurance companies have margins of around 3%, so that's not coming close to 5-6% of the federal budget, and I don't think you're going to get there by cutting "inefficiencies."
If we implemented medicare for all, you could save a lot of money by using monopsony power to cut payments to providers. But that comes with its own issues (although there is probably a decent amount of health provider compensation that could be cut before you really see negative impacts, although many hospitals probably require something close to what they are currently getting because of fixed costs).
If only someone had done a study on implementing something like this in the US. To see if there would be savings, and if it was feasible.
I wonder what their conclusion would have been?
http://archive.gao.gov/d20t9/144039.pdf
have you even read the executive summary of your link? It doesn't say anything about medicare for all. It compares the Canadian system to the U.S. system. There is no doubt that if we just decide to spend less government money on healthcare, we could spend less money on healthcare. That is a very different proposition from providing Medicare for all.
Yes, I've read it. My apologies, I didn't catch that your comment was specifically about Medicare, and not a universal health care system generally.
Sorry, my response was a little snarkier than necessary as people often use "medicare for all" as a synonym for single payer. My point is that single payer in the U.S. won't look like current Medicare.
To expand on my point, right now, Medicare doesn't pay the average cost of paying for care (I can't find the figures but it's something like 85-90% of average costs). That uncovered cost is shifted to private parties. They pay a higher percentage of the fixed/average costs. But Medicare still pays more than the marginal cost of providing care to medicare recipients. If we moved to Medicare for all (so Medicaid and private insureds and uninsureds now covered by Medicare), there would immediately be that difference between average and marginal care to adjust for. Assuming we don't just increase payouts of Medicare (which I think would be a pretty safe assumption based on the budget impacts), that uncovered costs would ahve to be cut. The most obvious place to cut would be compensation to healthcare providers. Not sure how much that woudl cover of the short fall, but probably decent amount. Doctors could certainly make less (in the long run, cutting physician pay could reduce the supply of doctors, but I really don't think this would happen until significant cuts were made). Nurses and other providers I'm not so sure about; cuts there would probably more immediately impact quality. There are other costs that are fixed in the short run but could be cut over time (primarily less investment in facilities).
But even cutting that amount from healthcare immediately, Medicare for all still wouldn't work because there would be a huge shortfall to cover between the medicare taxes and medicare premiums and the amount spent. At one extreme, they coudl keep Medicare premiums and taxes the same, and you'd end up with something that looks like Medicaid. There would be a private market for physicians in addition to the Medicaid for all market (and probably a lot of under the table payments for access through medicaid). At the other extreme, you could charge much more for premiums, in which case you end up with something approximating our current system. Lots of access to care, high quality care, and at a cost that is also high. You'd get some immediate benefits from reducing payments to providers, but over time the question is whether Medicare provides the right incentives for efficient care and for new types of care.
I don't think it would be an option to simply raise taxes to pay for the difference between premiums and expenditures. I'm not sure it's sustainable to keep doing that just for Medicare. But certainly you could increase taxes some and then use the new tax revenues to offset some of the premium increases.
But all of these options are probably a little worse than what anybody would envision because Medicare is already on a pace that we can't sustain without significant tax increases. I wouldn't be huge somes of money on it, but I think the political equilibrium would eventually work out to Medicaid for all, with a significant number of people paying for concierge type services just so they can have access when they want it, and rich people paying for additional insurance that insures they can get a hip replacement surgery or whatever when they want it.
I'm not sure that's such a terrible result, but I don't think it's what people are envisioning when they say single payer.