It makes a huge difference. On a normal day, staffing runs right on the edge of safety (and often on the worse side) and presently hospitals in many if not most places are at or over their actual capacity. It makes a bad situation worse.
Still can’t muster a single fuck to give about the “mandate” pearl clutchers, though. If we ever want out, this is what needs to happen.
I just want to say that I'm not saying all of this to generate sympathy for people against hospitals making mandates. I just think people aren't seeing the reality of the situation, which is a seriously, seriously bad one.
I do think you’re right that most of us who never enter a hospital, are not part of a healthcare delivery system, don’t see what’s happening.
I will say though that I hear such varying statistics I wonder what emergency “capacity “really is.
I hear that Florida ICU’s and emergency care facilities are at 95%.
I thought I read a year and a half ago that most facilities operate at 90- 95% occupancy anyway, pre covid.
I absolutely understand fatigue of those providing emergency care, and I appreciate their dedication and I worry about them. But I tire of what seems to be changing information, mis-information, false emergencies, crying wolf.
I, too, am curious how those numbers are handled. I don't know from a statistical standpoint or large-scale standpoint how people get the numbers. What I'm thinking of is less about 95% capacity or whatever all of that means and more along the lines of hospitals literally turning people away because there is literally 0 capacity so there's no room for ambiguity.
Hospitals operate at around 90% capacity normally. That is due to a variety of reasons, and they affect operations both pre and during COVID.
The most common (in order) are:
1) Staffing - especially nurse staffing. Attrition is currently extremely high due to repeated COVID surges.
2) Operations being performed - most money for hospitals come from elective surgery, so we try to keep this as high as possible. During the COVID surge, most hospitals have reduced their caseloads to compensate since OR, post-operative recovery areas and ERs can be used as ICUs since those nurses are trained in critical care (to some extent). This has almost never happened pre-COVID except after mass-casualty events (i.e. 9/11 in NYC area, Katrina in Gulf Coast).
3) ER admissions - this varies seasonally. During winter it goes up due to influenza. In summer it goes up due to gun/knife violence. When the hospitals reach a capacity threshold (around 95%, but varies from hospital to hospital), the ER goes on "diversion" - they will not accept EMS. However, walk-in / drop-off patients cannot be refused care so there will still be people who need admission (hence the 5% buffer). During COVID, ERs have been hit with a lot of walk-ins along with EMS. Unlike pre-COVID, regions are facing a crisis not previously seen in the US: what to do when all the hospitals in a region are on diversion?
For example, my hospital recently accepted people from 400 miles away who were critically ill and airlifted in. This was because all the hospitals between there and us were on diversion. Also, we have to separate critical care and floor (non-critical care) capacity. This is important because by definition (except for select surgery cases), critical care is not elective. We have to provide capacity, otherwise people will just literally die. For example, in Houston we have a high % of critical care to floor beds because of the number of referral/safety net hospitals. Even then, we are at 150% of standard critical care capacity due to COVID. We are now using 100% of ICUs in the city and 50% of the OR/recovery/ER.
With COVID, this distinction is not as clear-cut. We don't expect people with normal pneumonia or whatever illness to rapidly deteriorate in-hospital and need ICU care. Otherwise they'd be in the ICU to begin with.
With this surge, that isn't an option so people who normally would be in the ICU cannot be, so they deteriorate on the floor and then hopefully by then someone in the ICU has died and freed up a bed. We try to keep at least 1 ICU bed empty for these in-hospital emergencies (but with surges that isn't always possible). What do we do then? Try to provide ICU care on the floor and hope that person doesn't deteriorate further (i.e. need intubation or central lines).
But if they do, they do. Nothing much we can do about it till someone in the ICU dies. What does this mean?
If someone comes to the ER in critical condition, they stay on a gurney in the ER until a room is available in the ICU. If all the rooms in the ER are filled with critically ill, then the non-critical patients either wait in the lobby (upwards of 1 day) or if they do require emergency care, are seen in gurneys literally in the hallway. So now we are taking care of heart attack and stroke victims in the hallways, snaking equipment around so there's enough space for people to walk.
If you aren't seriously ill (i.e. actively dying) and come to the ER in Houston or most places in Texas, you will likely not be seen by a physician or NP for at least 24 hours. You may stay in the ER for the entirety of your stay. If you need a major operation that is not an emergency or cancer-related, you will not have that operation for the foreseeable future.
If you need a transplant, that will not be happening (except critically ill liver, lung or heart - that's a complicated story).
If you need heart-lung bypass for a non-emergency heart or liver surgery, that will not be happening.That is what those numbers mean. Why is this different than normal?In a normal situation, our 90-95% capacity is predictable because we know what to expect for influenza, and can scale back elective surgery if needed to provide additional ICU and non-ICU beds. That works out because elective operations decrease to some extent during the winter months. If it's an especially bad influenza season, there is some amount of surge capacity that can be temporarily provided. However, with COVID there are two issues:
1) even critically ill influenza patients are usually not as sick as critically ill COVID patients. Only the very sickest develop multi-organ failure, whereas it is relatively common to see that with COVID. For reference, in the Houston area (which has world-renown cardiopulmonary care - i.e. people come here from other countries for cardiac surgery, etc) there is a 9% mortality associated with admission to a hospital for COVID. For influenza it is usually around 3-4%. The H1N1 strain resulted in 6-7% in-hospital mortality, still lower than COVID.
2). The surges are more extreme on a population and individual level. Currently 1/3 of critically ill patients in Houston are in the ICU because of COVID. On average for flu season this is <10%.
As noted above, mortality is higher for COVID, but people don't die quickly. For most types of severe pneumonia, critical illness translates to patients slowly dying over multiple weeks (all the while taking up ICU space). Thus, these two issues combined result in more people on the "glide-slope" to death at any given time during the influenza surges. This is another factor leading to the high ICU utilization rates for COVID.
I no longer do critical care for multiple reasons, though am qualified (and volunteered for the February COVID surge -didn't need to work since it died down fairly quickly). Several of my friends do, and most have pushed up their retirement ages significantly as a result. Two of my friends are pediatric critical care, and are being pulled for adult critical care due to burn-out of the standard teams. On a normal night when I covered ICUs, we'd have maybe 1 code (cardiac arrest) out of 30-40 patients per night. In the COVID units that's more like 3-4. Also, they keep coming back (since they are younger with this surge - but gross oversimplification) and families are not ready to let go, so they get re-coded several times. So basically someone is coding at any given moment, all night.
We are not crying wolf. Luckily, like all things, this too will end. And the coffins will be stacked. And the same nonsense will happen again. Except every time there will be fewer people willing to waste the good parts of their lives caring for people who don't care about their own. When I covered the ICU it was for post-operative patients and I knew in general they had no say in what happened to them. Many of my friends feel the same way and are realizing that medicine is a calling, but not a mandate. They can and will make a living in other, more useful ways.