Author Topic: November Democrat Wave?  (Read 2865 times)

accolay

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November Democrat Wave?
« on: May 01, 2018, 12:37:53 AM »
There was all this talk of a Democrat wave in November.... but I'm pretty sure they're going to and have already started to fuck it up.

wenchsenior

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2018, 07:44:13 AM »
The Dems are good at that! 

I suspect they will still take the House though.  They were never expected to take the Senate b/c that would have required a 'wave' unprecedented in modern politics. It's been a strange few years, though.

Gone_Hiking

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2018, 11:07:39 PM »
Interesting things happening down here in Arizona.  There was a recent special election in a supposedly safe Republican district that Trump had won by some 20 percent.  A newcomer Democratic candidate came to within 5 percentage points behind the winning Republican candidate, a well known and squeaky clean state representative.  Anther phenomenon that's grabbing public's attention is the state-wide teacher walkout over pay and education funding.  The education issue is likely to galvanize a lot of people who otherwise might not pay attention: working parents of a lot of kids had to find alternative childcare arrangements all of the sudden, and if they weren't clued in on the education funding issue before, they sure are now.  Signature gathering effort on a ballot proposal that would effectively double state income taxes for individuals making more than $250 K and couples making more than $500 K and devoting the revenue to education is also starting.  In this climate, it has a good chance to get enough signatures and enough votes to become law.

bacchi

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2018, 11:40:11 PM »
Yeah, the special elections have been heavily tilting to the Dems at over 2x what the "generic ballot" suggests. The AZ election was, what, a +17 Democrat swing? The "generic ballot" is about +7 D.

It may just be that special elections are "special". It could also be that local races matter more than a generic poll. I.e., the thinking is "voting for Democrats over all isn't good but it's important for my district/state."

The close races also force the GOP to spend in traditionally safe districts.

wenchsenior

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2018, 07:15:29 AM »
I agree the AZ election was a very good sign for Dems.

Norioch

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2018, 02:19:34 PM »
I'll believe it when I see it. There's been talk of the Republican party being in terminal decline for a decade now, but when is it actually going to happen? They currently control every branch of the federal government, including both houses of Congress, and most state governments. One or two special elections doesn't change that. And the election map is *extremely* favorable to Republicans this year, even before factoring in gerrymandering.

DarkandStormy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2018, 02:41:11 PM »
Dems hold a ~+8-10 point advantage on a generic ballot.

They'll take the House.  The Senate map is just awful - I believe it's 10 D Senators in states that Trump one and only one or two the other way.  There's only 2 likely flips to D (AZ and NV) and a couple other outliers (TX, TN, maybe MS).  That's it.  So it's a lot of defense in the Senate and very few chances for pickups.

MonkeyJenga

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2018, 02:52:52 PM »
The generic ballot advantage has decreased. It may bounce back, but it may shrink further. Lots can change in 6 months. I am optimistic for a House majority, but I don't take it for granted. We all still need to work for it, like how we worked for every special election win so far. I remember being a lone pessimist in 2016 among experts who were much too certain of victory.

People got mad at me in Georgia's 6th when I said that I didn't think Ossoff was going to win. Like my saying it would jinx him. Never mind that I was still out there knocking on doors and doing what I could to get him elected. I'm still doing what I can now, but I get nervous when people think victory is a foregone conclusion.

ChpBstrd

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2018, 03:30:14 PM »
As we learned in 2016, poll results do not equal voting outcomes. Democrats are less likely to vote and more likely to be discouraged by media/social media ads. Plus, the millenial generation just flipped Republican, despite all the talk about "demographic destiny" and whatnot. Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH

The Republicans' alliance with the religious right gives them an enduring and sustainable advantage: people who are pre-organized, used to congregating at polling sites, mostly retired, and who are not motivated by self-interest or expectations for their leaders to improve much of anything. Democrats, in contrast, seem to have little ability or will to organize much more than one-off protest marches.

Those who think the political system naturally wanes to and fro and will automatically snap back on its own are ignoring the accumulation of financial, media, social/cultural, electoral/gerrymandering, and institutional advantages by the Republicans.

My prediction:

2018: Republicans lose seats but maintain majorities in the House and Senate.

2020: Trump re-elected in a rehash of 2016 as Democrats repeat the internal struggle between Marxists and centrists (spoiler: it doesn't matter who wins that struggle.).

Long term: Republicans become the dominant party despite steady declines in living standards, governance, etc. Similar to the PRI in Mexico a couple decades ago.

DarkandStormy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2018, 07:30:46 AM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.

This is false.

SwordGuy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2018, 08:37:46 AM »
I find myself in completely agreement with Senator Ted Cruz (R) (Tx).

I will crawl over broken glass if that's what it takes to vote every Republican out of office.  When Nazis are running for office in the Republican party and they get over 20,000 votes in the primary, they just need to go.  Every damn one of them.


acroy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2018, 09:39:42 AM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.
This is false.
Here's some evidence:
Don't try too hard, D&S lives in a somewhat altered parallel conspiracy-theory driven universe :)

'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.

bacchi

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2018, 09:56:19 AM »
'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.

You're right. No need to worry about it. The GOP's got this. They're not panicking; why should you?

Carry on.

Fireball

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2018, 10:03:44 AM »
As we learned in 2016, poll results do not equal voting outcomes. Democrats are less likely to vote and more likely to be discouraged by media/social media ads. Plus, the millenial generation just flipped Republican, despite all the talk about "demographic destiny" and whatnot. Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH

The Republicans' alliance with the religious right gives them an enduring and sustainable advantage: people who are pre-organized, used to congregating at polling sites, mostly retired, and who are not motivated by self-interest or expectations for their leaders to improve much of anything. Democrats, in contrast, seem to have little ability or will to organize much more than one-off protest marches.

Those who think the political system naturally wanes to and fro and will automatically snap back on its own are ignoring the accumulation of financial, media, social/cultural, electoral/gerrymandering, and institutional advantages by the Republicans.

My prediction:

2018: Republicans lose seats but maintain majorities in the House and Senate.

2020: Trump re-elected in a rehash of 2016 as Democrats repeat the internal struggle between Marxists and centrists (spoiler: it doesn't matter who wins that struggle.).

Long term: Republicans become the dominant party despite steady declines in living standards, governance, etc. Similar to the PRI in Mexico a couple decades ago.

I would agree that the Rs have a strong base with the religious right, but not sure it's sustainable and enduring. Most studies I've seen show a decrease in people who identify as religious, believe God exists, etc. Especially among millennials. Obviously, that could change, but if the next 20 years are like the last, the religious landscape in America will be quite different.

I don't foresee Trump winning in 2020. If the Ds can throw someone out there with a heartbeat, Trump will lose. Past elections indicate if the Ds show up - they win.  So far, Ds are showing up.

Unfortunately, I do agree with your long term prediction. For now at least, the Rs are much better at election politics.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2018, 10:16:08 AM by Fireball »

bacchi

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2018, 10:06:46 AM »
My prediction:

2018: Republicans lose seats but maintain majorities in the House and Senate.

2020: Trump re-elected in a rehash of 2016 as Democrats repeat the internal struggle between Marxists and centrists (spoiler: it doesn't matter who wins that struggle.).

Long term: Republicans become the dominant party despite steady declines in living standards, governance, etc. Similar to the PRI in Mexico a couple decades ago.

Eh. The Dems probably won't win the Senate (because of the GOP state bias) unless something really bad happens with Trump and the Republicans try to ignore it.

The House is still looking like it'll tilt. The special elections (actual voting outcomes) seem to support such an outcome.

Trump won't win again. He barely won last time and only because Democrats stayed home in critical states. That won't happen again, especially with his disapproval rating.

Bucksandreds

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2018, 10:07:40 AM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.
This is false.
Here's some evidence:
Don't try too hard, D&S lives in a somewhat altered parallel conspiracy-theory driven universe :)

'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.

Considering that people get votes and not pieces of land, your map is a dumb piece of intellectual dishonesty.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2018, 10:11:04 AM »
'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.

Most tsunamis originate in the Pacific, Hawaii is looking mighty blue, hence the blue wave sweeping over the mainland.

Who's next to continue the trend Acroy started of using kindergarten level logic to describe US politics?

DarkandStormy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2018, 10:11:13 AM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.

This is false.

Here's some evidence from longitudinal research:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379413000875


Summarized for easier reading:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics

And evidence based explanations for the effect:

https://www.vox.com/2016/7/1/12051622/brexit-vote-age-gap-aging-science-psychology

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mr-personality/201410/why-are-older-people-more-conservative

https://www.gwern.net/docs/dnb/2007-danigelis.pdf

https://www.livescience.com/2360-busting-myth-people-turn-liberal-age.html
Quote
By comparing surveys of various age groups taken over a span of more than 30 years, sociologists found that in general, Americans' opinions veer toward the liberal as they grow older.

Relative to current generations, yes older generations are more Conservative.  But relative to themselves, people get more liberal as they get older.

DarkandStormy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2018, 10:13:33 AM »
Don't try too hard, D&S lives in a somewhat altered parallel conspiracy-theory driven universe :)

You're an unapologetic Trump supporter and claiming I'm living in a conspiracy-theory driven universe?  Man, trolls should take up stand-up comedy.

Your little map still ignores that Clinton received 2.9 million more votes than Trump.

Kris

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2018, 10:29:02 AM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.
This is false.
Here's some evidence:
Don't try too hard, D&S lives in a somewhat altered parallel conspiracy-theory driven universe :)

'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.

Considering that people get votes and not pieces of land, your map is a dumb piece of intellectual dishonesty.

LOL! Every time someone shares that map, I just shake my head and laugh.

EvenSteven

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2018, 10:45:21 AM »
2016 Election map from xkcd

https://xkcd.com/1939/


bacchi

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2018, 10:49:24 AM »
Plus, the millenial generation just flipped Republican, despite all the talk about "demographic destiny" and whatnot. Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH

This Pew poll contradicts the Reuters poll:

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/01/1-generations-party-identification-midterm-voting-preferences-views-of-trump/

Quote
But, comparing early preferences this year with surveys conducted in previous midterm years, Millennial registered voters support the Democrat by a wider margin than in the past.


dougules

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2018, 11:27:00 AM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.
This is false.
Here's some evidence:
Don't try too hard, D&S lives in a somewhat altered parallel conspiracy-theory driven universe :)

'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.

Considering that people get votes and not pieces of land, your map is a dumb piece of intellectual dishonesty.

Unfortunately this is semi-false.  We call those pieces of land states. 

DarkandStormy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2018, 11:30:41 AM »
Unfortunately this is semi-false.  We call those pieces of land states.

And we call 65.9 millions 2.9 million more than 63 million.

Kris

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #25 on: May 04, 2018, 11:31:12 AM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.
This is false.
Here's some evidence:
Don't try too hard, D&S lives in a somewhat altered parallel conspiracy-theory driven universe :)

'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.

Considering that people get votes and not pieces of land, your map is a dumb piece of intellectual dishonesty.

Unfortunately this is semi-false.  We call those pieces of land states.

Sure, electoral college-wise. The difference is, that people use that map to pretend that there are like orders of magnitude more Republicans than Democrats in this country.

You'll notice that the "red ocean" map shown above does not show state lines.

tyort1

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #26 on: May 04, 2018, 12:26:56 PM »
2016 Election map from xkcd

https://xkcd.com/1939/



I think acroy needs to check his premises.  One of them is wrong.

Bucksandreds

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #27 on: May 04, 2018, 12:28:06 PM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.
This is false.
Here's some evidence:
Don't try too hard, D&S lives in a somewhat altered parallel conspiracy-theory driven universe :)

'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.

Considering that people get votes and not pieces of land, your map is a dumb piece of intellectual dishonesty.

Unfortunately this is semi-false.  We call those pieces of land states.

Sure, electoral college-wise. The difference is, that people use that map to pretend that there are like orders of magnitude more Republicans than Democrats in this country.

You'll notice that the "red ocean" map shown above does not show state lines.

That map would only be useful if people didn't already understand that the majority of Trump supporters could pass for the locals in the movie Deliverence. The more white you are, the lower your education level and the more rural you are the more likely you were to vote GOP.  That's a pretty poor cross section of what makes America great, if you ask me. When one party gets more votes for President, House and Senate and the other party controls all three bodies, it's obvious that something is amiss.

acroy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #28 on: May 04, 2018, 12:36:44 PM »
That map would only be useful if people didn't already understand that the majority of Trump supporters could pass for the locals in the movie Deliverence.
good grief, stereotype much?

Your little map still ignores that Clinton received 2.9 million more votes than Trump.
Irrelevant.

Most tsunamis originate in the Pacific, Hawaii is looking mighty blue, hence the blue wave sweeping over the mainland.
Who's next to continue the trend Acroy started of using kindergarten level logic to describe US politics?
Hey that's more clever, nicely done!

ChpBstrd

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #29 on: May 04, 2018, 12:37:52 PM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.

This is false.

Here's some evidence from longitudinal research:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379413000875


Summarized for easier reading:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics

And evidence based explanations for the effect:

https://www.vox.com/2016/7/1/12051622/brexit-vote-age-gap-aging-science-psychology

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mr-personality/201410/why-are-older-people-more-conservative

https://www.gwern.net/docs/dnb/2007-danigelis.pdf

https://www.livescience.com/2360-busting-myth-people-turn-liberal-age.html
Quote
By comparing surveys of various age groups taken over a span of more than 30 years, sociologists found that in general, Americans' opinions veer toward the liberal as they grow older.

Relative to current generations, yes older generations are more Conservative.  But relative to themselves, people get more liberal as they get older.

Neither study is longitudinal. I.e. they don't follow individuals as they age and instead compare cohorts across surveys using questions first drafted decades ago. The second study uses a statistical process to assume people aged from one cohort to another, but that is not the same as following individuals. I was addressing the question of whether people (individuals) get more conservative with age, and these studies seem to address whether people (cohorts/populations) get more conservative with age.

In the context of this thread, how has over a decade of increasing conservative dominance in all three branches of the federal government plus most states occurred while the population purportedly gets more liberal? It's more consistent with the evidence to say the population is getting older and becoming more conservative.

DarkandStormy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #30 on: May 04, 2018, 01:06:25 PM »

Your little map still ignores that Clinton received 2.9 million more votes than Trump.
Irrelevant.

Facts don't care about your feelings.  Good try.

bacchi

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #31 on: May 04, 2018, 01:15:36 PM »
In the context of this thread, how has over a decade of increasing conservative dominance in all three branches of the federal government plus most states occurred while the population purportedly gets more liberal? It's more consistent with the evidence to say the population is getting older and becoming more conservative.

Is that true? In the executive branch, the Democrats have held power for 8 of the past 10 years. The SC is 5-4 as it's been for a while and District 9 and District 2 court are still "liberal" and knock down Trump's executive orders regularly.

Congress has definitely been leaning conservative. The House is helped by wins in the states, which helps with gerrymandering. The Senate, due to urbanization, leans Republican and probably always will barring a really shitty Republican President that scares even voters in rural states/areas.

I can see the US becoming more of a banana republic as Trump and friends have made cheating the government more visible and accepted. The corrupt become more emboldened and will actively seek to steal elections in order to enrich themselves.

DarkandStormy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #32 on: May 04, 2018, 01:21:24 PM »
In the context of this thread, how has over a decade of increasing conservative dominance in all three branches of the federal government plus most states occurred while the population purportedly gets more liberal? It's more consistent with the evidence to say the population is getting older and becoming more conservative.

A Republican hasn't won the popular vote since 2004.

Bucksandreds

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #33 on: May 04, 2018, 01:24:14 PM »
That map would only be useful if people didn't already understand that the majority of Trump supporters could pass for the locals in the movie Deliverence.
good grief, stereotype much?


It's every bit as factually useful as your map. You conveniently didn't even address the points of my post that weren't tongue in cheek.

tyort1

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #34 on: May 04, 2018, 01:34:22 PM »
In the context of this thread, how has over a decade of increasing conservative dominance in all three branches of the federal government plus most states occurred while the population purportedly gets more liberal? It's more consistent with the evidence to say the population is getting older and becoming more conservative.

A Republican hasn't won the popular vote since 2004.

Actually if you consider that Bush lost the popular vote to Gore in 2000, and Bill Clinton was president before Bush, it's also accurate to say:

Since 1992, Republicans have won the popular vote for president exactly once - 2004. 

At the state level, the basic structure of our voting apparatus definitely tilts the board in favor of Republicans.  Gerrymandering tilts it further.  So it's no surprise that the conservatives are over-represented in anything that is state-based.  Like the federal level House of Reps.  Or pretty much all of the State level positions. 

Because we divide districts based on geography more than we do based on population, you get a weighting towards lower density areas having more clout than higher density areas.  Since low density districts tend to be overwhelmingly Republican, you get what we see going on here - a party losing favor with the general electorate, but maintaining a grip on government in spite of that. 

MonkeyJenga

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2018, 01:35:57 PM »
In the context of this thread, how has over a decade of increasing conservative dominance in all three branches of the federal government plus most states occurred while the population purportedly gets more liberal? It's more consistent with the evidence to say the population is getting older and becoming more conservative.

Ignoring that this isn't entirely true, remember that the voting population does not equal the general population, and the lobbying population does not equal the voting population. There are many potential answers to your question. Money, organization, decades of lawsuits laying the groundwork for federal decisions, voter suppression, voter apathy, gerrymandering, electoral college favoring less populated, typically more conservative states, Mitch McConnell throwing a hissy fit over a qualified Obama SC nominee...  If popular vote decided the president and overall representation in Congress, Democrats would have the majority everywhere.

To the question of whether it's true, the SC is split, but will be solidly, radically conservative for decades if Trump gets to put 1-3 more justices. Many lower courts have been filled with radical conservatives due to groups like the heritage foundation. In Congress, there was a backlash to the ACA which crushed the Democrats, but ironically now there may be a backlash to getting rid of the ACA (among other things) that could crush Republicans. And of course the exec branch has been Dem for 8 years before Trump.

Laserjet3051

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2018, 01:41:20 PM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.
This is false.
Here's some evidence:
Don't try too hard, D&S lives in a somewhat altered parallel conspiracy-theory driven universe :)

'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.

Considering that people get votes and not pieces of land, your map is a dumb piece of intellectual dishonesty.

Unfortunately this is semi-false.  We call those pieces of land states.

Sure, electoral college-wise. The difference is, that people use that map to pretend that there are like orders of magnitude more Republicans than Democrats in this country.

You'll notice that the "red ocean" map shown above does not show state lines.

That map would only be useful if people didn't already understand that the majority of Trump supporters could pass for the locals in the movie Deliverence. The more white you are, the lower your education level and the more rural you are the more likely you were to vote GOP.  That's a pretty poor cross section of what makes America great, if you ask me. When one party gets more votes for President, House and Senate and the other party controls all three bodies, it's obvious that something is amiss.

Until dems really learn why they lost the last election and stop debasing Trump supporters with humiliating and in most cases false stereotypes, they will continue to lose elections. Be careful for a wave in november. You may be surprised. I, nor any of my family who voted Republican (we are independents) in 2016, are religious uneducated deliverence types. We hold MDs, PhDs, and JDs, and are fed up with the direction Dems are taking this nation. Listen and learn or continue to lose.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2018, 01:43:18 PM by Laserjet3051 »

tyort1

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #37 on: May 04, 2018, 01:45:55 PM »

We hold MDs, PhDs, and JDs, and are fed up with the direction Dems are taking this nation. Listen and learn or continue to lose.

OK, great!  Maybe there's a chance for me to learn something here.  So, when you say you are "fed up with the direction the Dems are taking this nation", what do you mean?  Please be specific as I honestly don't know what you're referring to. 

DarkandStormy

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #38 on: May 04, 2018, 02:10:10 PM »
We hold MDs, PhDs, and JDs, and are fed up with the direction Dems are taking this nation. Listen and learn or continue to lose.

Republicans hold majorities in every branch of federal government.

Nicholas Carter

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #39 on: May 04, 2018, 02:29:40 PM »

In the context of this thread, how has over a decade of increasing conservative dominance in all three branches of the federal government plus most states occurred while the population purportedly gets more liberal? It's more consistent with the evidence to say the population is getting older and becoming more conservative.
I think that, over time, we are seeing the definition of what it means to be conservative change faster than people's opinions. So I get a little more liberal, but the goalposts for what opinions make someone liberal get even more liberal than that.
Being an American conservative in the 80's meant being opposed to rock and roll, being a conservative in the 50's meant being opposed to desegregation, Hell, being a conservative in the 1920's meant being opposed to the catholic church on social issues.
There is today not a single Republican senator who has ever publicly stated that women should not have the right to vote. The amendment giving women the right to vote in all United States was repeatedly voted down for almost 50 years.

Norioch

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #40 on: May 04, 2018, 02:42:28 PM »

We hold MDs, PhDs, and JDs, and are fed up with the direction Dems are taking this nation. Listen and learn or continue to lose.

OK, great!  Maybe there's a chance for me to learn something here.  So, when you say you are "fed up with the direction the Dems are taking this nation", what do you mean?  Please be specific as I honestly don't know what you're referring to.

Yes, I want to know this too.

ncornilsen

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2018, 02:57:14 PM »

We hold MDs, PhDs, and JDs, and are fed up with the direction Dems are taking this nation. Listen and learn or continue to lose.

OK, great!  Maybe there's a chance for me to learn something here.  So, when you say you are "fed up with the direction the Dems are taking this nation", what do you mean?  Please be specific as I honestly don't know what you're referring to.

Locally I have plenty to be fed up with.
Pension reform is desperately needed, yet our state is run by those beholden to public employee unions.
They're passing regulations on air emissions that do nothing yet add huge overhead and maintenance cost to the systems mandate by them.
Our governor is all-but-directly-responsible for the squandering of nearly a billion dollars in money on projects... a basic website for the ACA, the columbia river crossing, etc
Oh, her 1.5bn sales-tax-on-the-poor ballot initiative fails? Well, she'll just end-run that and pass it piecemeal legislatively.
Our 'governor' Claims the trump tax cut did nothing to help Oregon's businesses, while passing a bill that takes it away from small businesses.
Local democrats turn busy, multi lane roads into congested, 5mph rolling parking lots to add bike lanes that are barely used. (because, you know, the congestion still makes them dangerous)
I think that failure to enforce immigration law is wrong, and am really annoyed to hear about the times our local agencies cross the line from "not helping" to "actively obstructing" the federal agents.
And gerrymandering? Oregon is gerrymandered heavily in favor of the democrats.

Nationally,
Public employee unions need a good gutting and should be prohibited from contributing to politics, in so far as corporations are. (At this point, whatever. But if citiczens united is overturned, unions should be treated the same way corporations are.)
The democrats, on a national scale, are not leaders at the moment and there's not a whole lot to be 'fed up with' at the moment, but there's plenty I plan to oppose when they are in charge.


Quote
I think that, over time, we are seeing the definition of what it means to be conservative change faster than people's opinions. So I get a little more liberal, but the goalposts for what opinions make someone liberal get even more liberal than that.
Being an American conservative in the 80's meant being opposed to rock and roll, being a conservative in the 50's meant being opposed to desegregation, Hell, being a conservative in the 1920's meant being opposed to the catholic church on social issues.
There is today not a single Republican senator who has ever publicly stated that women should not have the right to vote. The amendment giving women the right to vote in all United States was repeatedly voted down for almost 50 years.

There's that too. Bill Clinton's position that abortion should be "safe, legal, rare" is now met with moral outrage.

Eric

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2018, 03:40:46 PM »
All it really takes is voter enthusiasm, which is currently pretty high.  We'll see if carries over to the ballot box.  Two years ago, it obviously wasn't enough to simply be anti-Trump.  Now, after viewing the current dumpster fire in the White House, I think it may be. 

Eric

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #43 on: May 04, 2018, 03:50:41 PM »
Quote
I think that, over time, we are seeing the definition of what it means to be conservative change faster than people's opinions. So I get a little more liberal, but the goalposts for what opinions make someone liberal get even more liberal than that.
Being an American conservative in the 80's meant being opposed to rock and roll, being a conservative in the 50's meant being opposed to desegregation, Hell, being a conservative in the 1920's meant being opposed to the catholic church on social issues.
There is today not a single Republican senator who has ever publicly stated that women should not have the right to vote. The amendment giving women the right to vote in all United States was repeatedly voted down for almost 50 years.

There's that too. Bill Clinton's position that abortion should be "safe, legal, rare" is now met with moral outrage.

Meh.  Conservatives are morally outraged over everything that doesn't match their worldview. 

tyort1

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #44 on: May 04, 2018, 04:03:20 PM »

We hold MDs, PhDs, and JDs, and are fed up with the direction Dems are taking this nation. Listen and learn or continue to lose.

OK, great!  Maybe there's a chance for me to learn something here.  So, when you say you are "fed up with the direction the Dems are taking this nation", what do you mean?  Please be specific as I honestly don't know what you're referring to.

Locally I have plenty to be fed up with.
Pension reform is desperately needed, yet our state is run by those beholden to public employee unions.
They're passing regulations on air emissions that do nothing yet add huge overhead and maintenance cost to the systems mandate by them.
Our governor is all-but-directly-responsible for the squandering of nearly a billion dollars in money on projects... a basic website for the ACA, the columbia river crossing, etc
Oh, her 1.5bn sales-tax-on-the-poor ballot initiative fails? Well, she'll just end-run that and pass it piecemeal legislatively.
Our 'governor' Claims the trump tax cut did nothing to help Oregon's businesses, while passing a bill that takes it away from small businesses.
Local democrats turn busy, multi lane roads into congested, 5mph rolling parking lots to add bike lanes that are barely used. (because, you know, the congestion still makes them dangerous)
I think that failure to enforce immigration law is wrong, and am really annoyed to hear about the times our local agencies cross the line from "not helping" to "actively obstructing" the federal agents.
And gerrymandering? Oregon is gerrymandered heavily in favor of the democrats.

Nationally,
Public employee unions need a good gutting and should be prohibited from contributing to politics, in so far as corporations are. (At this point, whatever. But if citiczens united is overturned, unions should be treated the same way corporations are.)
The democrats, on a national scale, are not leaders at the moment and there's not a whole lot to be 'fed up with' at the moment, but there's plenty I plan to oppose when they are in charge.


Quote
I think that, over time, we are seeing the definition of what it means to be conservative change faster than people's opinions. So I get a little more liberal, but the goalposts for what opinions make someone liberal get even more liberal than that.
Being an American conservative in the 80's meant being opposed to rock and roll, being a conservative in the 50's meant being opposed to desegregation, Hell, being a conservative in the 1920's meant being opposed to the catholic church on social issues.
There is today not a single Republican senator who has ever publicly stated that women should not have the right to vote. The amendment giving women the right to vote in all United States was repeatedly voted down for almost 50 years.

There's that too. Bill Clinton's position that abortion should be "safe, legal, rare" is now met with moral outrage.

You oppose bike lanes?  Really?  And you don't like pensions for public employees? 

The other things you mention (waste, incompetence), that's equally aggravating no matter who's in office (Repubs are just as bad, IME at that.  They say they aren't, but they are).  Gerrymandering - I agree, it's bad no matter who does it.  Again, something we agree on. 

You want to get money out of politics - that's actually something I think both sides agree on (except the ones benefiting directly from contributions, again it's true of both sides). 

Immigration - I agree, laws should be enforced. If we don't like the current laws, then we should change them, not simply ignore them.

In other words, the things that bother you about the government don't seem to be Democrat specific.  I'm a pretty staunch liberal and the things that upset you also tend to upset me. 

The only thing you list that seems to be "Democrat specific" is a passing reference to abortion being to easy/frequent.

So again, I ask - what specific Democratic policies do you oppose?  Cause as of right now, even coming from opposite ends of the political spectrum, we agree on far more than we disagree, based on your list above.

Kris

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #45 on: May 04, 2018, 04:10:31 PM »

We hold MDs, PhDs, and JDs, and are fed up with the direction Dems are taking this nation. Listen and learn or continue to lose.

OK, great!  Maybe there's a chance for me to learn something here.  So, when you say you are "fed up with the direction the Dems are taking this nation", what do you mean?  Please be specific as I honestly don't know what you're referring to.

Locally I have plenty to be fed up with.
Pension reform is desperately needed, yet our state is run by those beholden to public employee unions.
They're passing regulations on air emissions that do nothing yet add huge overhead and maintenance cost to the systems mandate by them.
Our governor is all-but-directly-responsible for the squandering of nearly a billion dollars in money on projects... a basic website for the ACA, the columbia river crossing, etc
Oh, her 1.5bn sales-tax-on-the-poor ballot initiative fails? Well, she'll just end-run that and pass it piecemeal legislatively.
Our 'governor' Claims the trump tax cut did nothing to help Oregon's businesses, while passing a bill that takes it away from small businesses.
Local democrats turn busy, multi lane roads into congested, 5mph rolling parking lots to add bike lanes that are barely used. (because, you know, the congestion still makes them dangerous)
I think that failure to enforce immigration law is wrong, and am really annoyed to hear about the times our local agencies cross the line from "not helping" to "actively obstructing" the federal agents.
And gerrymandering? Oregon is gerrymandered heavily in favor of the democrats.

Nationally,
Public employee unions need a good gutting and should be prohibited from contributing to politics, in so far as corporations are. (At this point, whatever. But if citiczens united is overturned, unions should be treated the same way corporations are.)
The democrats, on a national scale, are not leaders at the moment and there's not a whole lot to be 'fed up with' at the moment, but there's plenty I plan to oppose when they are in charge.


Quote
I think that, over time, we are seeing the definition of what it means to be conservative change faster than people's opinions. So I get a little more liberal, but the goalposts for what opinions make someone liberal get even more liberal than that.
Being an American conservative in the 80's meant being opposed to rock and roll, being a conservative in the 50's meant being opposed to desegregation, Hell, being a conservative in the 1920's meant being opposed to the catholic church on social issues.
There is today not a single Republican senator who has ever publicly stated that women should not have the right to vote. The amendment giving women the right to vote in all United States was repeatedly voted down for almost 50 years.

There's that too. Bill Clinton's position that abortion should be "safe, legal, rare" is now met with moral outrage.

You oppose bike lanes?  Really?  And you don't like pensions for public employees? 

The other things you mention (waste, incompetence), that's equally aggravating no matter who's in office (Repubs are just as bad, IME at that.  They say they aren't, but they are).  Gerrymandering - I agree, it's bad no matter who does it.  Again, something we agree on. 

You want to get money out of politics - that's actually something I think both sides agree on (except the ones benefiting directly from contributions, again it's true of both sides). 

Immigration - I agree, laws should be enforced. If we don't like the current laws, then we should change them, not simply ignore them.

In other words, the things that bother you about the government don't seem to be Democrat specific.  I'm a pretty staunch liberal and the things that upset you also tend to upset me. 

The only thing you list that seems to be "Democrat specific" is a passing reference to abortion being to easy/frequent.

So again, I ask - what specific Democratic policies do you oppose?  Cause as of right now, even coming from opposite ends of the political spectrum, we agree on far more than we disagree, based on your list above.

Not to mention, I don't know of any Democrats who disagree with abortion being "safe, legal, and rare." I would personally love that. It would require some changes in how we think about/provide access to birth control, though.

nick663

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #46 on: May 04, 2018, 04:25:48 PM »
All it really takes is voter enthusiasm, which is currently pretty high.  We'll see if carries over to the ballot box.  Two years ago, it obviously wasn't enough to simply be anti-Trump.  Now, after viewing the current dumpster fire in the White House, I think it may be.
Anecdotal but it seems like a lot of the more reasonable Trump supporters I talk to are pretty meh about him while the moderate Democrats are motivated to flip congress.  I think this enthusiasm gap could surprise people in 2018.


DreamFIRE

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #47 on: May 04, 2018, 07:10:16 PM »
Actually, research has shown for years that people get more conservative as they age.
This is false.
Here's some evidence:
Don't try too hard, D&S lives in a somewhat altered parallel conspiracy-theory driven universe :)

'Blue Wave' is an unfortunate choice of words. If there is a wave of any sort, looks like the little overpopulated blue islands will be, ahem, swamped.
LOL.  I hadn't seen that one before.  Nice map.

bacchi

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #48 on: May 06, 2018, 12:42:13 AM »
West Virginia may be heading to a Roy Moore Republican debacle. Blankenship, a convicted coal mine owner, may actually win the primary, and then probably lose against the Democrat in a state where Trump was +42. (An amusing part of this campaign is that a Democrat-aligned PAC is running ads against Blankenship's more serious competitors.)

A lot of these special election wins are because the GOP base keeps choosing troglodytes: a strident anti-abortion Rep who asked his mistress to have an abortion; a guy who trolled malls as a 30-something looking for teenagers to date; another House rep who made an unsolicited offer of millions to a staffer to have his baby. Ffs.

Keep 'em coming, Republicans. The water's warm.

accolay

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Re: November Democrat Wave?
« Reply #49 on: May 06, 2018, 02:49:05 AM »
Not to mention, I don't know of any Democrats who disagree with abortion being "safe, legal, and rare." I would personally love that. It would require some changes in how we think about/provide access to birth control, though.
And also realize that abstinence only education is folly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/23/health/trump-teen-pregnancy-abstinence.html