Author Topic: Musk takeover  (Read 82422 times)

sixwings

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #550 on: February 28, 2025, 08:10:30 AM »
There’s always ways to streamline things through thoughtful deliberate work, but the way Musk and team is doing it is reckless and very very stupid. Just hand waving it away by saying”AI can do it and just replace the systems” isn’t really an option.

AI can absolutely help a lot with bureaucratic processes. For example, LLMs can quickly digest, analyze, and summarize legal documents. Humans used to have to do that all on their own. Now we have AI to help us do it much more efficiently. I’ve heard of lawyers using AI to greatly increase their productivity.

It’s not about randomly replacing people with AI. It’s about using AI to empower a smaller group of competent bureaucrats, such that they become more productive and agile than a large group of bureaucrats who don’t use AI.

Have you ever implemented AI in an organization?

Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #551 on: February 28, 2025, 08:17:34 AM »
Have you ever implemented AI in an organization?

Yes. Everyone in my organization uses AI almost constantly now. The company is pushing it across the board, on everyone. We are becoming much more productive. I anticipate lots of layoffs in the future.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #552 on: February 28, 2025, 08:22:25 AM »
Does anyone know what percentage of government workers are out in the field doing hands-on work, versus those that are working from home doing bureaucratic paper pushing jobs?

I suspect that there is a greater opportunity to increase efficiency in the latter group via software and AI automation. But software systems and AI cannot currently inspect restaurants or clean up waste in our national parks.

At least on the white collar side of things, I think the federal bureaucracy is in bad need of a refresh. Technology has changed a lot in the last few decades, and we no longer need 1,000 people to file pieces of paper into filing cabinets in a limestone mine.

A government that can rapidly and efficiently get things done for the American people is very important. It simply takes too long to get stuff done. Just look at the California high speed rail project. I think that downsizing and streamlining the white collar part of the federal workforce will take the United States in a direction where it is more capable of getting stuff done.

In my agency it’s likely at least 85% “field/direct support” and 15% general support (think more along the lines of HQ, IT the office manager, general administrative.)

And as Sam said, I need my office manager to make sure things like the printer has paper, we have enough hard drives for storing digital evidence and the like.  My general support does things like make sure I get paid and answer citizen phone calls.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 08:30:45 AM by Fomerly known as something »

Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #553 on: February 28, 2025, 08:39:53 AM »
Does anyone know what percentage of government workers are out in the field doing hands-on work, versus those that are working from home doing bureaucratic paper pushing jobs?

I suspect that there is a greater opportunity to increase efficiency in the latter group via software and AI automation. But software systems and AI cannot currently inspect restaurants or clean up waste in our national parks.

At least on the white collar side of things, I think the federal bureaucracy is in bad need of a refresh. Technology has changed a lot in the last few decades, and we no longer need 1,000 people to file pieces of paper into filing cabinets in a limestone mine.

This is deeply bullshit reasoning. Yes, the government is rife with bureaucracy, and yes there is strong call to examine what parts are stupid and what parts are sane.

On the stupid side, my XO is required to fill out an IT checklist for all purchases, to ensure none of the special IT rules are triggered. We just submitted a request for IT clearance for: a delivery of cleaning supplies for the upcoming 9 month deployment; a delivery of mattress because our current mattress suck balls; a delivery of galley equipment to repair broken grilltop elements; a delivery of emergency spill equipment for the upcoming 9 month deployment.

The requirement for the IT checklist, which came about to ensure absolutely no IT purchase could accidentally sneak through is very, very stupid. It's a classic example of the govt working harder, and not smarter. Plus gross paternalistic vibes. 

But to say all non-field employees are wasteful leeches is so vastly ignorant. A ship needs 75-150 shoreside support personnel to keep us running. These folks took an oath the the constitution, care deeply about the ship and her mission, and work all hours to keep us field people operational. They aren't doing "paper pushing." They are just as fundamental to the safety of life and property as the people sailing on the ship. They watch out for us, and our families, and no matter their politics they are human beings working hard.

I won't allow you to malign them with ignorant and unresearched malarkey. Your Dunning-Kruger is showing, and I for one am embarrassed and ashamed for you.

To be crystal clear, I don’t believe that government bureaucrats are leeches to be maligned. I fully agree with you that the people you are talking about are patriots who are trying to do their jobs to their best ability.

But technology and automation means that we simply don’t require as many people as before. For example, China’s modern automated ports appear to be much more efficient than what we have in the United States.

https://www.lmitac.com/news/automated-ports-china-leads-the-way

Another example which may be more relevant. Autonomous warships are being developed by various nations across the world.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a43033206/navy-ship-can-operate-autonomously-for-30-days/

https://www.popsci.com/robotic-warship-arms-china-d3000/

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-launches-worlds-first-ai-unmanned-drone-aircraft-carrier-2022-6?op=1

https://www.twz.com/news-features/what-the-navys-massive-orca-submarine-drone-is-actually-capable-of

Certainly, these autonomous warships will require humans to perform maintenance. They will still require a team of shoreside support personnel to keep them running. But I am positive that they won’t require anyone to approve, coordinate, or otherwise facilitate the delivery of mattresses, galley equipment, and cleaning supplies for human quarters. All the human jobs for that part of the work will be eliminated.

And I’m sure there will be plenty of manned ships too. But the ratio of unmanned ships to manned ships will increase over time. Humans will be required, but we will require less of them.

This is just how things work. Some parts of the government are clearly in need of an efficiency upgrade, such as the limestone mine. Other areas are yet to come, such as naval vessels and their shoreside support teams.

I want to be clear, it could be a decade or more until autonomous warships are commonplace. But the general theme here is that less humans will be required.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 05:14:02 PM by Herbert Derp »

NorCal

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #554 on: February 28, 2025, 08:49:04 AM »
Does anyone know what percentage of government workers are out in the field doing hands-on work, versus those that are working from home doing bureaucratic paper pushing jobs?

I suspect that there is a greater opportunity to increase efficiency in the latter group via software and AI automation. But software systems and AI cannot currently inspect restaurants or clean up waste in our national parks.

At least on the white collar side of things, I think the federal bureaucracy is in bad need of a refresh. Technology has changed a lot in the last few decades, and we no longer need 1,000 people to file pieces of paper into filing cabinets in a limestone mine.

A government that can rapidly and efficiently get things done for the American people is very important. It simply takes too long to get stuff done. Just look at the California high speed rail project. I think that downsizing and streamlining the white collar part of the federal workforce will take the United States in a direction where it is more capable of getting stuff done.

This is deeply bullshit reasoning. Yes, the government is rife with bureaucracy, and yes there is strong call to examine what parts are stupid and what parts are sane.

On the stupid side, my XO is required to fill out an IT checklist for all purchases, to ensure none of the special IT rules are triggered. We just submitted a request for IT clearance for: a delivery of cleaning supplies for the upcoming 9 month deployment; a delivery of mattress because our current mattress suck balls; a delivery of galley equipment to repair broken grilltop elements; a delivery of emergency spill equipment for the upcoming 9 month deployment.

The requirement for the IT checklist, which came about to ensure absolutely no IT purchase could accidentally sneak through is very, very stupid. It's a classic example of the govt working harder, and not smarter. Plus gross paternalistic vibes. 

But to say all non-field employees are wasteful leeches is so vastly ignorant. A ship needs 75-150 shoreside support personnel to keep us running. These folks took an oath the the constitution, care deeply about the ship and her mission, and work all hours to keep us field people operational. They aren't doing "paper pushing." They are just as fundamental to the safety of life and property as the people sailing on the ship. They watch out for us, and our families, and no matter their politics they are human beings working hard.

I won't allow you to malign them with ignorant and unresearched malarkey. Your Dunning-Kruger is showing, and I for one am embarrassed and ashamed for you.

OOOh, I might know the origins of this stupid IT documentation rule.

Back in Iraq, circa 2005, we had a lot of funds we could spend on local contractors.  It was part of the effort to build-up the Iraqi economy by buying local. 

Until a bunch of rules got put into place about what we could or could not buy with the money.  Some higher command dictated that we couldn't buy furniture with it.  Other things became off-limits because the local contractors were driving into Iran to buy the supplies, and that wasn't the economy we wanted to be supporting.  There were good reasons for the rules, but they put some severe restrictions on things that could be bought, even when those things were needed.

About the only thing the supply officers could buy unrestricted was thumb drives.  Some enterprising supply officers took it upon themselves to buy thousands of thumb drives from locals, then trade them for the items they actually wanted like the forbidden furniture.  It was an entire mini-economy based on thumb drives as a currency.

It was blatantly against the rules, and probably wildly illegal.  It's exactly the type of dumb behavior I can see creating necessary rules and checklists for things that are IT unrelated. 

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #555 on: February 28, 2025, 08:51:18 AM »
@spartana apparently the VA has fired community care staff.  Which may account for the appointment issues.

mtnrider

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #556 on: February 28, 2025, 09:01:48 AM »
Have you ever implemented AI in an organization?

Yes. Everyone in my organization uses AI almost constantly now. The company is pushing it across the board, on everyone. We are becoming much more productive. I anticipate lots of layoffs in the future.

Exactly what are they talking about replacing with AI?  If you're talking about something that can use RAG, like Notebook LM, I could see it being useful in some areas.  More like augmenting than replacing though.

As someone who uses AI every day in engineering, I wouldn't run anything mission critical on it.  For anything complex or unusual it is unreliable, sometimes wildly unreliable.  For simple and common tasks it is OK, but must be babysat, even with the temperature turned down, unless you don't care about the accuracy.  Why do sites like Stackoverflow not allow LLM code?  Why did my former employer not allow LLM code?  Hm...

The last thing I'd want is for an LLM to hallucinate in nuclear systems.  Or even writing up highway planning advice. 


Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #557 on: February 28, 2025, 09:07:09 AM »
Exactly what are they talking about replacing with AI?  If you're talking about something that can use RAG, like Notebook LM, I could see it being useful in some areas.  More like augmenting than replacing though.

It is as you say, and also as I said in my previous post at the top of this page. The point of AI as it exists today is not to act as a drop-in replacement for human workers. Rather, the purpose of AI is to augment human workers to make them more productive than workers who don’t use AI.

As a result, we will require less human workers. A small number of AI augmented human workers can do the job of a larger group of humans who don’t use AI. Less humans will be required. Layoffs are inevitable.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 09:14:58 AM by Herbert Derp »

Travis

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #558 on: February 28, 2025, 10:10:09 AM »

wenchsenior

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #559 on: February 28, 2025, 10:53:59 AM »
Just a quick reminder... this type of thing (losing 10% of the workforce) is only the first round of firings (probationary only).

Most agencies have been told to prepare for RIFs of permanent employees in the next 6 months. For example, HUD was just told that EVERYONE of GS13 and below is going to be fired as part of RIFs, regardless of whether they are mission critical.

RIFs when done properly allow each agency to conduct strategic analysis to reduce workforce through multiple legal means, including layoffs/firings as a final resort, and specifically targeted to maintain all mission-critical positions and support staff. It normally takes at least 6 months to do a proper RIF analysis and make those decisions in a way that is strategically efficient so as to minimally disrupt government function. Example of how this is done correctly and legally was the large RIF effort under Clinton admin in the 90s.

This 'RIF' instruction gave all the agencies ~3 weeks to analyze and turn in lists of employees to be fired.

NOTE: DOGE has no legal authority to determine who to RIF, but with loyalists newly appointed at the head of each agency, they will presumably do whatever Musk's incel fucks tell them or resign (as the head of the US Forest Service just did.)

There is literally nothing about this procedure that is about making the government function more efficiently, and anyone who believes that is an idiot.  This is about gutting the government, so it no longer functions, while bypassing the legal need to consult Congress about dismantling or changing the functions of the government established by Congressional law.

GuitarStv

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #560 on: February 28, 2025, 10:56:36 AM »
I'm wondering if the cost savings from the firings will be enough to cover the losses from the lawsuits that the US government will lose for wrongful dismissal.

swashbucklinstache

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #561 on: February 28, 2025, 11:28:17 AM »
I'm wondering if the cost savings from the firings will be enough to cover the losses from the lawsuits that the US government will lose for wrongful dismissal.
The pessimist in me sees Republicans holding all three branches of the government and thinks we'll either see laws, EOs, or legislating from the bench to sidestep this. In the end the American people voted for this. Maybe that's one reason it's happening before midterms... Perhaps Dems will be left with a decision to raise taxes to pay off employees or bring them back with back pay or something in a few years.

mtnrider

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #562 on: February 28, 2025, 11:50:27 AM »
Exactly what are they talking about replacing with AI?  If you're talking about something that can use RAG, like Notebook LM, I could see it being useful in some areas.  More like augmenting than replacing though.

It is as you say, and also as I said in my previous post at the top of this page. The point of AI as it exists today is not to act as a drop-in replacement for human workers. Rather, the purpose of AI is to augment human workers to make them more productive than workers who don’t use AI.

As a result, we will require less human workers. A small number of AI augmented human workers can do the job of a larger group of humans who don’t use AI. Less humans will be required. Layoffs are inevitable.

Hm... I'm looking for a company that, right now, is selling a product that is a proven killer app with AI.  Something like Excel, email, or Google was.  All I see right now is some stuff that is kinda cute, and in the right situation can be helpful, but is unreliable and isn't going to replace many.  Meanwhile, the party line is that AI will replace all these workers.  Exactly how?

And as others pointed out, tearing things down is easy.  Building up a (as of now, nonexistent) AI product takes time and money.

I think it's safe to say that talking about AI is a distraction since there's no plan, or even a concept of a plan, for how to use it to replace workers. 

Travis

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #563 on: February 28, 2025, 12:02:43 PM »
As predicted, Elon's assurance that deleting Ebola treatment funding was a temporary oopsie, they're still deleting more.

https://bsky.app/profile/apoorvanyt.bsky.social/post/3lj6kud5fxs2f

DoubleDown

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #564 on: February 28, 2025, 12:54:58 PM »
There is literally nothing about this procedure that is about making the government function more efficiently, and anyone who believes that is an idiot.  This is about gutting the government, so it no longer functions, while bypassing the legal need to consult Congress about dismantling or changing the functions of the government established by Congressional law.

Exactly.

Travis

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #565 on: February 28, 2025, 01:02:50 PM »

Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #566 on: February 28, 2025, 01:46:28 PM »
I can’t say I’m a fan of the fire everyone first and let the remaining people figure it out approach. This is dumb. At my company the plan is to introduce AI, let everyone use it, and then start shaking out the “low performers” who fail to adopt AI or can’t keep up with those who use it most effectively. The employees who have learned to use AI effectively will pick up the slack. It will be a much smoother transition for the company.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 01:48:30 PM by Herbert Derp »

Cannot Wait!

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #567 on: February 28, 2025, 01:55:33 PM »
Three doesn't seem like a large number to me; they probably deal with hundreds...it's too bad the negative encounters are more memorable.

GuitarStv

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #568 on: February 28, 2025, 02:07:53 PM »
I can’t say I’m a fan of the fire everyone first and let the remaining people figure it out approach. This is dumb. At my company the plan is to introduce AI, let everyone use it, and then start shaking out the “low performers” who fail to adopt AI or can’t keep up with those who use it most effectively. The employees who have learned to use AI effectively will pick up the slack. It will be a much smoother transition for the company.


What happens if the initial assumption that introducing AI will make things more efficient doesn't actually work?  I've seen idiots in management try to shoehorn AI into places where it significantly reduced efficiency.  Who do you fire then?

NorCal

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #569 on: February 28, 2025, 02:26:44 PM »
I can’t say I’m a fan of the fire everyone first and let the remaining people figure it out approach. This is dumb. At my company the plan is to introduce AI, let everyone use it, and then start shaking out the “low performers” who fail to adopt AI or can’t keep up with those who use it most effectively. The employees who have learned to use AI effectively will pick up the slack. It will be a much smoother transition for the company.


What happens if the initial assumption that introducing AI will make things more efficient doesn't actually work?  I've seen idiots in management try to shoehorn AI into places where it significantly reduced efficiency.  Who do you fire then?

You fire the VP that was strategically hired to implement AI solutions.  These positions are usually brought in at a senior enough level that the board will be placated with the firing, but not so senior that anyone else will notice.  This happens frequently in botched ERP implementations. 

mtnrider

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #570 on: February 28, 2025, 02:44:32 PM »
I can’t say I’m a fan of the fire everyone first and let the remaining people figure it out approach. This is dumb. At my company the plan is to introduce AI, let everyone use it, and then start shaking out the “low performers” who fail to adopt AI or can’t keep up with those who use it most effectively. The employees who have learned to use AI effectively will pick up the slack. It will be a much smoother transition for the company.

If I saw this, I'd be cautiously on board.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #571 on: February 28, 2025, 03:17:02 PM »
What happens if the initial assumption that introducing AI will make things more efficient doesn't actually work?  I've seen idiots in management try to shoehorn AI into places where it significantly reduced efficiency.  Who do you fire then?

My company isn’t forcing anyone to use AI at the moment. Our strategy to implement AI across the company consists of three simple pillars.

Firstly, we have made AI tools available for everyone to use. AI is being integrated into all of our productivity software across the board. Everyone from our top executives to our entry level customer service representatives has AI tools at their fingertips.

Secondly, we are pressuring people to become more productive by accelerating project deadlines and pushing people harder in general. The expectation is that we will naturally learn to use the AI tools that have been provided to us to cope with this increased workload.

Thirdly, we are targeting low performers and firing them. The end goal is to downsize the workforce and replace them with a smaller group of high performers who use AI effectively.

If productivity does not increase as expected, then obviously we will not proceed with the layoffs.

And we are still in the infancy of AI productivity systems. In about two years, we will be rolling out semi-autonomous “AI agents” across the company that will act as virtual assistants, and can operate a computer the same way a remote human worker could. Eventually, these AI agents will be able to do anything that a white collar human worker can do.

Assuming that I survive the initial rounds of layoffs, I expect to be “managing” a “team” of AI agents until I too get replaced by an AI agent some years down the line. It is inevitable.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 03:57:00 PM by Herbert Derp »

joemandadman189

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #572 on: February 28, 2025, 03:22:51 PM »
So lets flip this around, Lets say Harris had won and Mark Cuban was appointed to lead a similar government efficiency program. He starts auditing government programs and departments with his young tech geniuses, with all full security clearances necessary to review sensitive information (like Musk and the DOGE team), and finds all kinds of opportunities to reduce government spending, which President Harris is happy to cut. Are we equally as upset at Mark Cuban and his team of young tech geniuses?

Or do we not want any spending cuts or audits of government programs looking for savings opportunities?

I want to know, are we upset with the messenger (Musk and DOGE) or the message (we have a $2 trillion dollar annual federal budget deficit that is a hair on fire spending emergency)?

This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself. The federal debt is currently $36 Trillion with annual revenue of $5 trillion with spending of $7 trillion. Imagine a case study with a family in $360k of debt, making $50k a year and spending $70k a year, they would be absolutely roasted and ripped to shreds. What would we want to see to help them with their case study? A line by line accounting of their spending looking for opportunities to cut spending and then look for ways to increase their income.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #573 on: February 28, 2025, 03:29:09 PM »
So lets flip this around, Lets say Harris had won and Mark Cuban was appointed to lead a similar government efficiency program. He starts auditing government programs and departments with his young tech geniuses, with all full security clearances necessary to review sensitive information (like Musk and the DOGE team), and finds all kinds of opportunities to reduce government spending, which President Harris is happy to cut. Are we equally as upset at Mark Cuban and his team of young tech geniuses?

Or do we not want any spending cuts or audits of government programs looking for savings opportunities?

I want to know, are we upset with the messenger (Musk and DOGE) or the message (we have a $2 trillion dollar annual federal budget deficit that is a hair on fire spending emergency)?

This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself. The federal debt is currently $36 Trillion with annual revenue of $5 trillion with spending of $7 trillion. Imagine a case study with a family in $360k of debt, making $50k a year and spending $70k a year, they would be absolutely roasted and ripped to shreds. What would we want to see to help them with their case study? A line by line accounting of their spending looking for opportunities to cut spending and then look for ways to increase their income.

I don't totally understand how the US government works, but didn't Muck and his team not have the security clearances?  Trump may have said they do, but I doubt that is how it works.


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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #574 on: February 28, 2025, 03:35:29 PM »
This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself.

It's not. Repeat after me: The government budget is not the same as a family budget.

The debt should be attended to but it's not a "violate laws and use 19 year olds to find 'fraud'" emergency. Even if it was, a man-child who couldn't pass a drug test shouldn't be in charge.

mtnrider

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #575 on: February 28, 2025, 03:45:01 PM »
So lets flip this around, Lets say Harris had won and Mark Cuban was appointed to lead a similar government efficiency program. He starts auditing government programs and departments with his young tech geniuses, with all full security clearances necessary to review sensitive information (like Musk and the DOGE team), and finds all kinds of opportunities to reduce government spending, which President Harris is happy to cut. Are we equally as upset at Mark Cuban and his team of young tech geniuses?

Or do we not want any spending cuts or audits of government programs looking for savings opportunities?

I want to know, are we upset with the messenger (Musk and DOGE) or the message (we have a $2 trillion dollar annual federal budget deficit that is a hair on fire spending emergency)?

This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself. The federal debt is currently $36 Trillion with annual revenue of $5 trillion with spending of $7 trillion. Imagine a case study with a family in $360k of debt, making $50k a year and spending $70k a year, they would be absolutely roasted and ripped to shreds. What would we want to see to help them with their case study? A line by line accounting of their spending looking for opportunities to cut spending and then look for ways to increase their income.

I was hopeful that Musk would somehow find inefficiencies.  I'd be all for that.  Instead he has wreaked havoc on agencies for a small portion of the budget.  Why isn't he looking for the $500 hammers in the Pentagon?  Or at medical coding in Medicare and Medicaid?  Medical coding with Medicare Advantage is supposed to be hugely inefficient, and a handout to insurance companies.  These are much larger budgets and just a few percent savings would go a long way.  And maybe even make Americans healthier.

I suspect Musk's targets are political, for his own gain, and perhaps even intended to destabilize the US system, Yarvinism-style.

joemandadman189

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #576 on: February 28, 2025, 03:45:23 PM »
This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself.

It's not. Repeat after me: The government budget is not the same as a family budget.

The debt should be attended to but it's not a "violate laws and use 19 year olds to find 'fraud'" emergency. Even if it was, a man-child who couldn't pass a drug test shouldn't be in charge.

Correct - but debt payments are now $1 trillion per year - more than defense spending, do you not see a problem with that? what do we do? print more money to inflate the debt away?

So you have a problem with the messenger and the message

Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #577 on: February 28, 2025, 03:51:14 PM »
Agreed, we can’t money print ourselves out of this mess. The country will go broke by inflation if all of the federal budget is allocated to debt payments and we are forced to print more money to compensate. Cuts must be made.

bacchi

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #578 on: February 28, 2025, 03:59:00 PM »
This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself.

It's not. Repeat after me: The government budget is not the same as a family budget.

The debt should be attended to but it's not a "violate laws and use 19 year olds to find 'fraud'" emergency. Even if it was, a man-child who couldn't pass a drug test shouldn't be in charge.

Correct - but debt payments are now $1 trillion per year - more than defense spending, do you not see a problem with that? what do we do? print more money to inflate the debt away?

So you have a problem with the messenger and the message

No, I have a problem with people who don't understand how government debt works and who are suddenly super-duper concerned about it yet seem to overlook that under the current budget proposal the debt won't be reduced at all because it'll go towards tax cuts.

Gremlin

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #579 on: February 28, 2025, 04:18:47 PM »
Agreed, we can’t money print ourselves out of this mess. The country will go broke by inflation if all of the federal budget is allocated to debt payments and we are forced to print more money to compensate. Cuts must be made.
Low tax wedge.  High performing government owned assets.  First world services.  Choose any two.

The US has one of the lowest tax wedges in the OECD, coupled with underperforming (by international standards) government owned assets.

Safety nets such as Medicare, Social Security and VA belong in first world services. 

Most other first world nations faced with the same dilemma choose a higher tax wedge instead.  So cuts aren't the only option.  But that doesn't feature in a country embracing far-right idealism.

Travis

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #580 on: February 28, 2025, 04:21:00 PM »
So lets flip this around, Lets say Harris had won and Mark Cuban was appointed to lead a similar government efficiency program. He starts auditing government programs and departments with his young tech geniuses, with all full security clearances necessary to review sensitive information (like Musk and the DOGE team), and finds all kinds of opportunities to reduce government spending, which President Harris is happy to cut. Are we equally as upset at Mark Cuban and his team of young tech geniuses?

Or do we not want any spending cuts or audits of government programs looking for savings opportunities?

I want to know, are we upset with the messenger (Musk and DOGE) or the message (we have a $2 trillion dollar annual federal budget deficit that is a hair on fire spending emergency)?

This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself. The federal debt is currently $36 Trillion with annual revenue of $5 trillion with spending of $7 trillion. Imagine a case study with a family in $360k of debt, making $50k a year and spending $70k a year, they would be absolutely roasted and ripped to shreds. What would we want to see to help them with their case study? A line by line accounting of their spending looking for opportunities to cut spending and then look for ways to increase their income.

The messenger is a self-absorbed sociopath with monumental conflicts of interest and no interest in following the law in his pursuit of whatever we're calling this. The clearances that they do have were all fast-tracked because with their backgrounds they'd never get through the front door of many of these offices. They are not doing any real audits or investigating, and keep having to roll back their alleged victories because they're destructive, exaggerated, or outright lies. Their actions thus far have been to cancel contracts in such a way that they clearly didn't read them, did and don't care, and are probably breaking laws while they do it. They're firing people only on the basis of how long they've been at the job rather than looking at the actual role they're filling.  And firing a lot of these people will probably cause greater economic damage long-term by their absence.

If Mark Cuban got the job, I'd expect him to surround himself with qualified financial investigators and accountants with a concrete charter vetted by Constitutional lawyers who file industry and legally-acceptable reports.

In your hypothetical family's example, the family's deficit is greater than the mortgage payment so the first thing the father does is crash the family car to take it out of the equation because car payments, insurance, and gasoline cost money even though that was how everybody got to their jobs and never even entertains the idea that maybe the family needs to earn more money. And then lies about how much gas they were consuming anyways.

Agreed, we can’t money print ourselves out of this mess. The country will go broke by inflation if all of the federal budget is allocated to debt payments and we are forced to print more money to compensate. Cuts must be made.

In order to actually find $2 trillion in cuts it would require Congress to enact them. Musk's outsized and Constitutionally-questionable authority only goes so far.  While this is happening, the GOP wants to increase the debt limit by $4 trillion even though two years ago they fought Biden tooth and nail with one of their demands to be to fire the tax collectors. Suddenly there's no question about raising the debt limit, but they want to use the fuzziest math possible to make it work. The problem you outlined is a serious problem, but serious people are not in charge of finding a solution.

Boll weevil

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #581 on: February 28, 2025, 04:28:24 PM »
So lets flip this around, Lets say Harris had won and Mark Cuban was appointed to lead a similar government efficiency program. He starts auditing government programs and departments with his young tech geniuses, with all full security clearances necessary to review sensitive information (like Musk and the DOGE team), and finds all kinds of opportunities to reduce government spending, which President Harris is happy to cut. Are we equally as upset at Mark Cuban and his team of young tech geniuses?

Or do we not want any spending cuts or audits of government programs looking for savings opportunities?

I want to know, are we upset with the messenger (Musk and DOGE) or the message (we have a $2 trillion dollar annual federal budget deficit that is a hair on fire spending emergency)?

This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself. The federal debt is currently $36 Trillion with annual revenue of $5 trillion with spending of $7 trillion. Imagine a case study with a family in $360k of debt, making $50k a year and spending $70k a year, they would be absolutely roasted and ripped to shreds. What would we want to see to help them with their case study? A line by line accounting of their spending looking for opportunities to cut spending and then look for ways to increase their income.


Suppose somebody has gangrene in their foot. What I think should happen is that a degreed and licensed doctor should consider the case and decide on the proper cut location, communicate what they’re going to do, do it, and follow up with appropriate aftercare. The Musk/DOGE approach appears to be to have a politico go in with an ax, chop off the entire leg at the hip in one swing, and walk out the door saying “You’re a worthless asshole and I hope you bleed out.”

Even if we can’t afford the first approach, we should aspire to something much more than the second.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #582 on: February 28, 2025, 04:30:07 PM »
If I saw this, I'd be cautiously on board.

If you haven’t seen it yet, you will soon. My company is one of the largest, most powerful, and most influential companies in the world, and we are pedal to the metal on AI. So is our competition in both the United States and China. Companies like your former employer who banned LLMs will be crushed by companies like mine who go all-in on AI.

One of our senior executives recently sent out an email saying how excited the company is to adopt semi-autonomous AI agents at scale. These agents will eventually be able to do anything that a human white collar worker can do. They can be created and destroyed on a whim. They will be able to speak computer language and access computer databases and APIs with their minds, without a human user interface. They will have mastery over a broad range of tools and systems. They will think much faster than a human, and will be able to comprehend the entirety of War and Peace in their short term memory. They will have perfect recall for their long term memory. Finally, they will work tirelessly, 24/7.

And the plan is to start deploying these superhuman agents at scale in about two years. First, AI agents will assist human white collar workers and make us vastly more productive, leading to massive layoffs and reductions in force. Next, they will replace us entirely. AI is inevitable.

« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 04:41:15 PM by Herbert Derp »

NorCal

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #583 on: February 28, 2025, 04:48:46 PM »
So lets flip this around, Lets say Harris had won and Mark Cuban was appointed to lead a similar government efficiency program. He starts auditing government programs and departments with his young tech geniuses, with all full security clearances necessary to review sensitive information (like Musk and the DOGE team), and finds all kinds of opportunities to reduce government spending, which President Harris is happy to cut. Are we equally as upset at Mark Cuban and his team of young tech geniuses?

Or do we not want any spending cuts or audits of government programs looking for savings opportunities?

I want to know, are we upset with the messenger (Musk and DOGE) or the message (we have a $2 trillion dollar annual federal budget deficit that is a hair on fire spending emergency)?

This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself. The federal debt is currently $36 Trillion with annual revenue of $5 trillion with spending of $7 trillion. Imagine a case study with a family in $360k of debt, making $50k a year and spending $70k a year, they would be absolutely roasted and ripped to shreds. What would we want to see to help them with their case study? A line by line accounting of their spending looking for opportunities to cut spending and then look for ways to increase their income.

In what world does the government NOT already do audits? 

You also may have heard of an institution called the Office of the Inspector General (OIG).  You should read some of their reports sometimes.  Sometimes the reports get ignored; many times they are acted upon.  It doesn't really make the social media cycle.

Let's do a thought experiment.  One hypothesis is that this is an honest audit of government looking for fraud waste and abuse.  The other hypothesis is that this is a naked power grab designed to consolidate political power, punish political enemies, illegally sideline Congress, reduce regulation of Elon Musk's companies specifically, and give additional power to other political donors.

Here's two potential actions.  Which supports the first hypothesis and which supports the second?
a) The OIG is suddenly the most important office in the US government.
b) Key members of the OIG are dismissed without warning.

Which of these actions supports the first hypothesis and which supports the second:
a) Cost savings are documented in normal government databases that track such contracts in an auditable fashion that aligns with government accounting principals. 
b) Cost savings are broadcast over social media.  The website used to track it is riddled with errors and overstatements, and data cannot be tied back to other data sources.  Attempts to document the savings largely find the social media posts are demonstrably bullshit.

You make the claim that this is about cost savings and deficit reduction.  If that were true would you expect:
1) IRS funding to go up, which increases collections and reduces the deficit.
2) IRS agents to be laid off, which reduces audits of mostly wealthy Americans/political donors, and decreases government revenue.

Also related to deficit reduction, if this was about deficit reduction, would you expect the budget framework the president just bullied Congress into passing to
1) Decrease the deficit over 10 years
2) Keep the deficit relatively constant over 10 years
3) Increase the deficit by ~$2T over 10 years
« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 05:19:34 PM by NorCal »

Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #584 on: February 28, 2025, 04:51:54 PM »
In order to actually find $2 trillion in cuts it would require Congress to enact them. Musk's outsized and Constitutionally-questionable authority only goes so far.  While this is happening, the GOP wants to increase the debt limit by $4 trillion even though two years ago they fought Biden tooth and nail with one of their demands to be to fire the tax collectors. Suddenly there's no question about raising the debt limit, but they want to use the fuzziest math possible to make it work. The problem you outlined is a serious problem, but serious people are not in charge of finding a solution.

I totally agree with you, and have already pointed this out in the other thread:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/trump-2-0/msg3343439/#msg3343439

Congress is incapable of solving this problem. They are truly incompetent.

Travis

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #585 on: February 28, 2025, 05:04:51 PM »
In order to actually find $2 trillion in cuts it would require Congress to enact them. Musk's outsized and Constitutionally-questionable authority only goes so far.  While this is happening, the GOP wants to increase the debt limit by $4 trillion even though two years ago they fought Biden tooth and nail with one of their demands to be to fire the tax collectors. Suddenly there's no question about raising the debt limit, but they want to use the fuzziest math possible to make it work. The problem you outlined is a serious problem, but serious people are not in charge of finding a solution.

I totally agree with you, and have already pointed this out in the other thread:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/trump-2-0/msg3343439/#msg3343439

Congress is incapable of solving this problem. They are truly incompetent.

Just to be clear here, I include Elon and his ilk on that list of "not serious people."

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #586 on: February 28, 2025, 05:18:56 PM »
If you haven’t seen it yet, you will soon. My company is one of the largest, most powerful, and most influential companies in the world, and we are pedal to the metal on AI. So is our competition in both the United States and China. Companies like your former employer who banned LLMs will be crushed by companies like mine who go all-in on AI.

One of our senior executives recently sent out an email saying how excited the company is to adopt semi-autonomous AI agents at scale. These agents will eventually be able to do anything that a human white collar worker can do. They can be created and destroyed on a whim. They will be able to speak computer language and access computer databases and APIs with their minds, without a human user interface. They will have mastery over a broad range of tools and systems. They will think much faster than a human, and will be able to comprehend the entirety of War and Peace in their short term memory. They will have perfect recall for their long term memory. Finally, they will work tirelessly, 24/7.

And the plan is to start deploying these superhuman agents at scale in about two years. First, AI agents will assist human white collar workers and make us vastly more productive, leading to massive layoffs and reductions in force. Next, they will replace us entirely. AI is inevitable.

So what's your short-term strategy? (Assuming you will no longer be at this company in 3-5 years.)

Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #587 on: February 28, 2025, 05:26:58 PM »
So what's your short-term strategy? (Assuming you will no longer be at this company in 3-5 years.)

I’ll just FIRE, as has been the plan for the last 12 years or so. I’ve been financially independent for years now.

I’m also thinking of starting some sort of small business and utilizing AI to give me a competitive edge. I think it would be super cool to have open source AI running on my own hardware in my home, that gives my small business an edge in areas such as marketing, customer service, payments, and accounting. I can automate all of that and I don’t need to pay anyone aside from hardware and electricity costs. I will have complete control over my small business. My competitors will probably license SaaS and/or AI from some sort of platform company and be at a disadvantage.

Also, I’ve been preparing for political instability. I left the United States two years ago to go somewhere where I feel more insulated from the instability which may be on its way.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 05:35:46 PM by Herbert Derp »

Herbert Derp

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #588 on: February 28, 2025, 05:48:14 PM »
Low tax wedge.  High performing government owned assets.  First world services.  Choose any two.

The US has one of the lowest tax wedges in the OECD, coupled with underperforming (by international standards) government owned assets.

Safety nets such as Medicare, Social Security and VA belong in first world services. 

Most other first world nations faced with the same dilemma choose a higher tax wedge instead.  So cuts aren't the only option.  But that doesn't feature in a country embracing far-right idealism.

And look where this mindset got Europe. Their corporations are weak and are being dominated by the United States and China. Their military is chronically underfunded, and they can barely defend themselves.

Europe is like a helpless naked man in the forest, and the Russian bear is about to eat him. Europe should be able to kick Russia’s ass, but instead they really shot themselves in the foot by prioritizing social welfare over economic might and national defense.

Luckily, between the Ukraine war and Trump’s isolationism, Europe has finally realized their dilemma and is trying to make a change.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 05:59:07 PM by Herbert Derp »

41_swish

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #589 on: February 28, 2025, 05:52:46 PM »
I can’t say I’m a fan of the fire everyone first and let the remaining people figure it out approach. This is dumb. At my company the plan is to introduce AI, let everyone use it, and then start shaking out the “low performers” who fail to adopt AI or can’t keep up with those who use it most effectively. The employees who have learned to use AI effectively will pick up the slack. It will be a much smoother transition for the company.


What happens if the initial assumption that introducing AI will make things more efficient doesn't actually work?  I've seen idiots in management try to shoehorn AI into places where it significantly reduced efficiency.  Who do you fire then?
Then they probably hire back some, but not all, of the people at reduced wages

Cannot Wait!

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #590 on: February 28, 2025, 06:12:10 PM »
I think the term superhuman AI agents is an oxymoron. Not everything in life is about saving money.  Humans care about each other and the earth.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #591 on: February 28, 2025, 06:29:27 PM »
So lets flip this around, Lets say Harris had won and Mark Cuban was appointed to lead a similar government efficiency program. He starts auditing government programs and departments with his young tech geniuses, with all full security clearances necessary to review sensitive information (like Musk and the DOGE team), and finds all kinds of opportunities to reduce government spending, which President Harris is happy to cut. Are we equally as upset at Mark Cuban and his team of young tech geniuses?

Or do we not want any spending cuts or audits of government programs looking for savings opportunities?

I want to know, are we upset with the messenger (Musk and DOGE) or the message (we have a $2 trillion dollar annual federal budget deficit that is a hair on fire spending emergency)?

This feels like a hair on fire debt emergency, per MMM himself. The federal debt is currently $36 Trillion with annual revenue of $5 trillion with spending of $7 trillion. Imagine a case study with a family in $360k of debt, making $50k a year and spending $70k a year, they would be absolutely roasted and ripped to shreds. What would we want to see to help them with their case study? A line by line accounting of their spending looking for opportunities to cut spending and then look for ways to increase their income.

I don't totally understand how the US government works, but didn't Muck and his team not have the security clearances?  Trump may have said they do, but I doubt that is how it works.

Seeing as one was fired for leaking information the answer is no.

Gremlin

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #592 on: February 28, 2025, 06:41:31 PM »
Low tax wedge.  High performing government owned assets.  First world services.  Choose any two.

The US has one of the lowest tax wedges in the OECD, coupled with underperforming (by international standards) government owned assets.

Safety nets such as Medicare, Social Security and VA belong in first world services. 

Most other first world nations faced with the same dilemma choose a higher tax wedge instead.  So cuts aren't the only option.  But that doesn't feature in a country embracing far-right idealism.

And look where this mindset got Europe. Their corporations are weak and are being dominated by the United States and China. Their military is chronically underfunded, and they can barely defend themselves.

Europe is like a helpless naked man in the forest, and the Russian bear is about to eat him. Europe should be able to kick Russia’s ass, but instead they really shot themselves in the foot.

Oh yes.  Absolutely.  The only way forward is totalitarianism!  /s

I don't think anyone is arguing that corporations in markets that exploit workers, such as US and China, will gain a competitive advantage over those that don't.  Europe will have to increase their military spend, but they will be able to do so without destroying their social fabric, because they collectively have a much healthier tax wedge and/or outperforming sovereign funds than the US.  Europe, as a whole, also has a much lower level of debt to service than the US.

But the whole point of your argument is about the unsustainable state of spending in the US and that accumulation of debt, which is independent of whatever headwinds Europe may face.  In your own words
Quote
Cuts must be made.

Cuts continue to not be the only choice to address that.  More productive and profitable sovereign wealth is a legitimate possibility and a path that other nations have pursued with outstanding success - but it appears that any competitive advantage the US has here is being sold off for political favour with the new breed of oligarchs.  Or a higher tax wedge is also a possibility - but again, it's an antithesis of the far-right idealism.

So cuts are not a necessity, they are a choice.

This should not sanitise what these cuts are though.  They are a direct lowering of living standards for Americans.  Most will feel a little pain, some will feel a lot.  They also represent an opportunity for a very select few to exploit the system to their own financial advantage. 

You may have made peace with the fact that your standard of living is coming down, but it's reasonable that others may push back against that.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2025, 08:52:09 PM by Gremlin »

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #593 on: March 01, 2025, 04:40:47 AM »
In order to actually find $2 trillion in cuts it would require Congress to enact them. Musk's outsized and Constitutionally-questionable authority only goes so far.  While this is happening, the GOP wants to increase the debt limit by $4 trillion even though two years ago they fought Biden tooth and nail with one of their demands to be to fire the tax collectors. Suddenly there's no question about raising the debt limit, but they want to use the fuzziest math possible to make it work. The problem you outlined is a serious problem, but serious people are not in charge of finding a solution.

I totally agree with you, and have already pointed this out in the other thread:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/trump-2-0/msg3343439/#msg3343439

Congress is incapable of solving this problem. They are truly incompetent.

So considering all the myriad abuses of power, conflicts of interest, etc, etc, and the fact that the Republican Congress is going to give any and all tax money away with the enthusiastic support of Trump himself, are you now willing to admit that this is an unmitigated disaster?

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #594 on: March 01, 2025, 06:49:37 AM »
One of his interns posted code on GitHub for what they are looking for in the. 5 points email.  It’s private now but still available on ghost archives.

mtnrider

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #595 on: March 01, 2025, 08:34:54 AM »
One of his interns posted code on GitHub for what they are looking for in the. 5 points email.  It’s private now but still available on ghost archives.

I saw this on Hacker News too.  Here's an X mirror of the info: https://xcancel.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1895609294810464390

Fru-Gal

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #596 on: March 01, 2025, 03:05:47 PM »
Just watched some of the very erratic (possibly high) Musk CPAC interview. My current prediction: Musk is going to completely crash out soon.

He is not emotionally capable of being hated and ridiculed as much as he is and will be. Addicted to fame/attention/Twitter/(ketamine?), desperate to act and look younger than his 54 years, carrying around his toddler as a human shield while ignoring his baby mama’s pleas for medical care of his other child who is experiencing a medical emergency… Musk is not a violent man, unlike Trump, who in his 50s was in his prime as a rapist. But like Trump, he is a coward.

Musk may have been put in place to control the puppet Trump, but Musk is hanging on by a thread.

These Nazi-saluting red hats with bronzer, Botox, hair plugs and “manly interests” (golf, gaming, raping) are the most image-obsessed gender-affirming fakers we’ve ever seen. Let this finally put to rest the idea that the left is obsessed with identity politics. MAGA is 100% identity politics.

IT IS WORKING. Musk on Rogan saying he’s not a Nazi, and that the hate he gets is pretty stressful. He wouldn’t feel the need to go on Rogan if he wasn’t feeling the pressure of intense hatred by the American public.

scottish

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #597 on: March 01, 2025, 03:19:10 PM »
There’s always ways to streamline things through thoughtful deliberate work, but the way Musk and team is doing it is reckless and very very stupid. Just hand waving it away by saying”AI can do it and just replace the systems” isn’t really an option.

AI can absolutely help a lot with bureaucratic processes. For example, LLMs can quickly digest, analyze, and summarize legal documents. Humans used to have to do that all on their own. Now we have AI to help us do it much more efficiently. I’ve heard of lawyers using AI to greatly increase their productivity.

It’s not about randomly replacing people with AI. It’s about using AI to empower a smaller group of competent bureaucrats, such that they become more productive and agile than a large group of bureaucrats who don’t use AI.

I don't completely understand what you're saying here.   When you, as a lawyer (are you a lawyer?   I'm assuming this is a first person example!) are reviewing a legal document like a contract, you need to be looking at the details to ensure everything is good for your client.     IANAL, but I think I've got this right.   It's what I expect my lawyer to do for me. 

It sounds like you're suggesting the AI can check for loopholes, escape clauses and so on, is this the case?   

NorCal

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #598 on: March 01, 2025, 08:35:51 PM »
There’s always ways to streamline things through thoughtful deliberate work, but the way Musk and team is doing it is reckless and very very stupid. Just hand waving it away by saying”AI can do it and just replace the systems” isn’t really an option.

AI can absolutely help a lot with bureaucratic processes. For example, LLMs can quickly digest, analyze, and summarize legal documents. Humans used to have to do that all on their own. Now we have AI to help us do it much more efficiently. I’ve heard of lawyers using AI to greatly increase their productivity.

It’s not about randomly replacing people with AI. It’s about using AI to empower a smaller group of competent bureaucrats, such that they become more productive and agile than a large group of bureaucrats who don’t use AI.

I don't completely understand what you're saying here.   When you, as a lawyer (are you a lawyer?   I'm assuming this is a first person example!) are reviewing a legal document like a contract, you need to be looking at the details to ensure everything is good for your client.     IANAL, but I think I've got this right.   It's what I expect my lawyer to do for me. 

It sounds like you're suggesting the AI can check for loopholes, escape clauses and so on, is this the case?

My wife is a lawyer, and her firm is implementing a new AI drafting tool.  She also represented a company a few years back that was building AI to do contract review and analysis.

The way the software trainers put it, AI can do document drafting similar to what you'd expect from a first year associate. 

It will do a lot of the leg work, but it needs to be reviewed by a partner with the expectation there will be lots of mistakes. 

There are absolutely places for AI, and it will increase the efficiency of a lot of professions.  Similar to how accounting software replaced a lot of low-level bookkeepers.

Anyone thinking AI is going to magically revolutionize entire industries and allow the government to downsize entire departments completely misunderstands the technology.  Anyone who trusts the words "AI" when Elon Musk says it has had their brain completely melted by social media. 

RetiredAt63

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Re: Musk takeover
« Reply #599 on: March 01, 2025, 08:54:04 PM »
There’s always ways to streamline things through thoughtful deliberate work, but the way Musk and team is doing it is reckless and very very stupid. Just hand waving it away by saying”AI can do it and just replace the systems” isn’t really an option.

AI can absolutely help a lot with bureaucratic processes. For example, LLMs can quickly digest, analyze, and summarize legal documents. Humans used to have to do that all on their own. Now we have AI to help us do it much more efficiently. I’ve heard of lawyers using AI to greatly increase their productivity.

It’s not about randomly replacing people with AI. It’s about using AI to empower a smaller group of competent bureaucrats, such that they become more productive and agile than a large group of bureaucrats who don’t use AI.

I don't completely understand what you're saying here.   When you, as a lawyer (are you a lawyer?   I'm assuming this is a first person example!) are reviewing a legal document like a contract, you need to be looking at the details to ensure everything is good for your client.     IANAL, but I think I've got this right.   It's what I expect my lawyer to do for me. 

It sounds like you're suggesting the AI can check for loopholes, escape clauses and so on, is this the case?

My wife is a lawyer, and her firm is implementing a new AI drafting tool.  She also represented a company a few years back that was building AI to do contract review and analysis.

The way the software trainers put it, AI can do document drafting similar to what you'd expect from a first year associate. 

It will do a lot of the leg work, but it needs to be reviewed by a partner with the expectation there will be lots of mistakes. 

There are absolutely places for AI, and it will increase the efficiency of a lot of professions.  Similar to how accounting software replaced a lot of low-level bookkeepers.

Anyone thinking AI is going to magically revolutionize entire industries and allow the government to downsize entire departments completely misunderstands the technology.  Anyone who trusts the words "AI" when Elon Musk says it has had their brain completely melted by social media.

My Dad saw the electrification of the prairies, I saw the workplace change totally as computers became common and software was easier to use.  Things changed a lot but not totally.

Easy-to-use software made a lot of changes.  When I started teaching we had 3 typists for things like course outlines and exams, and both an alcohol and a gestetner copier.  Within a few years of computers being common they were gone, we were all typing our own exams and course outlines and whatever.  Spell check doesn't even give me gestetner when I make a one letter error.   And further down the road most teachers I knew used a spreadsheet program for calculating grades, instead of a grade book and a calculator (before that it was a grade book and a pencil).

At home as well - I used to do my taxes with a rough copy of the tax forms and a pencil (at first without a calculator, because calculators were expensive and no-one had one at home*), and then transfer everything to the good form that got mailed in.  Now I do it all on my computer and efile.

*To show how things changed, when I was a grad student my supervisor had a calculator that was top of the line, it did sums of squares and sums of XY.  Super basic, right?  Not then. It cost over $200 which would be over $700 now.  He let me use it, and it was wonderful.  When I took stats as an undergraduate, our calculators were actually machines sort of like a typewriter, where you entered the numbers and pulled a lever and it made a horrible noise (imagine 20 of them in a room) and you got the result.


That got way off topic.  To get back on topic, when I was a kid we also had the cold war, and the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Diefenbunker.  When I was a teen it was watching the Americans in Vietnam, and protests for women's rights, and the Pill, and Kent State, and knowing draft dodgers. 

« Last Edit: March 01, 2025, 08:57:40 PM by RetiredAt63 »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!