Author Topic: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate  (Read 739708 times)

electriceagle

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #750 on: February 29, 2016, 07:02:02 AM »
Trump - who knows.  In the last 20 years he's been a Democrat, an independent, a moderate republican, "the most conservative guy in this race", and very lately someone who has gone against some of the right-wings dearest philosophies.

Trump is happy to use hate against minorities -- thus far Mexicans and muslims -- to gain followers and enhance his personal power. He also wants to remove what few bits of the 4th amendment are still in place and require private companies to modify their products at the request of law enforcement.

I hope that Trump doesn't win. I also hope that some other Republican doesn't win and name him chancellor.... then we're really repeating history.

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #751 on: February 29, 2016, 08:12:48 AM »
I think it's humorous that crony capitalism and corporatism exists in the form that it does today because people feel the need to regulate and control businesses and free enterprise for 'the common good'. That's always the cry isn't it? Big evil corporations doing big evil bad things, so we need to give government more power to benevolently swoop in and save us from the uncaring, greedy capitalists. Sadly, people don't realize that the only REAL threat to these big guys is market competition, yet our predilection towards increasing labor, regulations, and general restrictions only serves to disproportionally hurt their smaller competitors.

In theory, market competition would be great. The problem is, it doesn't work all the time.

First of all, there are many industries where it can't exist in the first place -- telecom and other utilities, for instance. To achieve the sort of "market competition" you think is the savior of everything, we'd have to abolish government grants of right-of-way and let each "competitive" telecom company negotiate individually with the owners of each individual property they wanted to string their lines across. The network would never get built. Or maybe the first-mover telecom would successfully build out, but nobody else could afford to because they'd split the subscriber base and have a too-high cost per subscriber (leaving the same situation we have now). Or even if multiple competitors did manage to build out, we'd be left with a hugely-duplicated rat's nest of wiring like you'd see in a third-world country.

Second, even when those sorts of barriers to entry don't exist, things like first-mover advantage, network effects, and lack of information cause actual distortions in the "free market." For example, I don't have a real choice between online social networks; I can either capitulate and use Facebook or socially isolate myself. For another example, it's easy to say that if people cared about companies being environmentally-friendly, they'd choose to be customers of environmentally-friendly companies -- but without that "evil regulation" requiring companies to disclose their environmental record, there's no way for the customers to tell the difference and make an informed choice! And of course, let's not forget externalities -- if customer A chooses product B which harms third-party C, there's no market competition solution to fix C's problem.

The bottom line is, the "free market" is not a panacea, and the people who claim it is are either intentionally lying or are conflating it with perfect competition. But perfect competition does not exist, and (admittedly, counter-intuitively) regulation is required to make competition closer to perfect.

Also, I don't think your base argument is well-reasoned. Corporations derive their power from money, specifically voluntary transactions from consumers. People willingly GIVE them money. I guess it's easier for you to vilify business instead of telling people to stop buying Starbucks.

I don't give a shit about Starbucks; it's not the problem. You know why it's not the problem? Two reasons: First, you intentionally picked one of the least-problematic industries in terms of barriers to entry and other market-distorting problems. Second, Starbucks is, in fact, regulated! It is not, for example, allowed to claim its coffee is "free-trade" or "organic" if it isn't. It is required to meet standards for food safety and worker safety. It is prohibited from lying about it's products (e.g. by advertising its coffee as a patent medicine). Etc.

Also, I think some of what your describing is a result of our tax policy. The government cares more about the taxpayers than it does the voters, like it should. People that contribute to the government, to the public good, will naturally have more influence on the use of those tax dollars than the people that contribute nothing. If you want a say in government, you pay your equal share of taxes. If you push the lion's share of the public burden on the shoulder's of the few, you're setting yourself up for failure, for cronyism, for corruption. It's partially the reason that prior to the 16th Amendment the government was only able to levy taxes proportionally across the population. For most of our history the federal government couldn't tax one citizen more than another. People were less likely to use votes to steal things from fellow citizens like healthcare, food, water, etc. "Trading votes for food" used to be a common phrase during the 1930's.

Equal taxation is great in theory -- it would work fine if society were relatively egalitarian -- but in reality how do you propose to do that while still being confiscatory enough to the upper class to prevent inequality from spiraling out of control and leading to peasant revolts? I mean, is a communist revolution what you want? 'Cause insufficiently-progressive taxation is how you get it!

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #752 on: February 29, 2016, 08:34:14 AM »
Also, I think some of what your describing is a result of our tax policy. The government cares more about the taxpayers than it does the voters, like it should. People that contribute to the government, to the public good, will naturally have more influence on the use of those tax dollars than the people that contribute nothing. If you want a say in government, you pay your equal share of taxes. If you push the lion's share of the public burden on the shoulder's of the few, you're setting yourself up for failure, for cronyism, for corruption. It's partially the reason that prior to the 16th Amendment the government was only able to levy taxes proportionally across the population. For most of our history the federal government couldn't tax one citizen more than another. People were less likely to use votes to steal things from fellow citizens like healthcare, food, water, etc. "Trading votes for food" used to be a common phrase during the 1930's.

Equal taxation is great in theory -- it would work fine if society were relatively egalitarian -- but in reality how do you propose to do that while still being confiscatory enough to the upper class to prevent inequality from spiraling out of control and leading to peasant revolts? I mean, is a communist revolution what you want? 'Cause insufficiently-progressive taxation is how you get it!
I'll just add this to the discussion - when people talk about our current income inequality, and how it's reaching historical levels, what they are comparing it to is the income distribution of the 1950s-1980s.  In truth our current 'income inequality' is considerably less than it was prior to the 1920s, when an actual majority of Americans lived at or near the subsitanve level and a very small percentage were fantastically wealthy.  That was actually the income distribution for the first ~150 years of our nation. 

Going back to the issue above (taxation), having a non-progressive tax plan only reinforces this. 

Kris

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #753 on: February 29, 2016, 09:47:14 AM »
Christie just endorsed Trump -- obviously, because he has been promised something (which Trump may or may not deliver… how Christie could not realize that Trump is not as good as his word is beyond me).

Now Rubio, obviously realizing that the only way to get support away from the main contender is to campaign from the gutter, has taken to almost exclusive ad hominem attacks as his method.  In the last couple of days, he has suggested that Trump wet his pants at the last debate, mocked his face and his "makeup," and now is implying that Trump has small genitals:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/rubio-suggests-trump-has-small-genitals.html?mid=facebook_nymag

Meanwhile, Trump won't even repudiate support from the KKK. 

We no longer have two political parties in this presidential race.  We have one party, and one three-ring circus.
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 10:05:17 AM by Kris »

boy_bye

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #754 on: February 29, 2016, 10:02:09 AM »
Lots of legitimate (and hilarious) criticism of Trump in this, John Oliver's masterwork: http://youtu.be/DnpO_RTSNmQ

Yaeger

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #755 on: February 29, 2016, 10:43:28 AM »
Equal taxation is great in theory -- it would work fine if society were relatively egalitarian -- but in reality how do you propose to do that while still being confiscatory enough to the upper class to prevent inequality from spiraling out of control and leading to peasant revolts? I mean, is a communist revolution what you want? 'Cause insufficiently-progressive taxation is how you get it!

Wow. First of all your assumption to the effectiveness of taxation to 'solve' income inequality is incredibly misguided. Higher marginal tax rates will have a very modest effect on inequality. If you look at EFFECTIVE tax rates vs historical levels, our rich pay tax rates comparable to the effective tax rates of the 1970's. Marginal tax rates for the rich have gone down, however tax rates for the poor and middle class have been reduced more such that the rich pay a larger percentage of the overall tax burden today than they did 40 years ago. I'd only support a tax increase on the rich only if we place an equivalent tax increase on the middle class and poor.

Your argument also marginalizes the impact of other factors contributing to inequality: a decreased savings rate (14% in 1965 to less than 4% today), a cultural shift in accepting non-monetary benefits in lieu of pay, globalization, etc.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2015/09/28-increase-in-top-income-tax-rate-not-substantially-alter-income-inequality-gale-kearney-orszag

The KKK is a historically Democrat party organization. It was founded by Nathan Bedford Forrest, a Democrat Delegate and former Confederate General. It was the cultural arm of the southern Democrat during the Reconstruction and helped Democrat oppose civil rights legislation proposed by Republicans. They supported Democrat initiatives in passing the Jim Crow laws and upholding southern segregation.

FDR appointed a KKK member to the Supreme Court Hugo Black in 1937. The Dixiecrats were close with the KKK. Hell, more Republicans voted in the affirmative for civil rights, voting right, affirmative action legislation than Democrats.

No one questions why an organization with over 100 years of Democrat relationship would send a member with a Sharpi'd t-shirt to an opposing party's rally?

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #756 on: February 29, 2016, 10:56:50 AM »


Here's the bottom line: you can choose between a fascist, fascist, fascist, fascist, fascist... or Sanders.
I certainly disagree with political compasses graph here. It basically says Sanders is a centrist that most people align with and everyone else is right wing including Hillary. I think the center should be the center of the US. The black dots on the following show the center of the US, you can notice that if you choose Hillary she is to the left of every black dot, so for your graph to show her right of the center I think proves that this is a messed up graph.
http://www.bing.com/search?q=John%20Kasich%20policy%20positions&form=ELCAND&p1=%5BFUI+els%3D%22Candidates%22+sid%3D%22481eb896-c6e1-868d-9764-5093fa47ad97%22+sint%3D%22BPI%22%5D&filters=ufn%3a%22+%22+sid%3aH1eb896-c6e1-868d-9764-5093fa47ad97%22&ajax=ElectionCandidates&axID=7&pIG=910A694F410D42828175C792E4889106
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 10:59:08 AM by Jeremy E. »

boy_bye

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #757 on: February 29, 2016, 11:03:53 AM »
The center of this graph is NOT meant to be the center of the US populace.

The center of this graph constitutes the center of what's actually possible in terms of the political spectrum. Sweden/Denmark would be on the left. The US would be on the right. Someone like Canada or the UK would be in the center.

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #758 on: February 29, 2016, 11:09:05 AM »
The center of this graph is NOT meant to be the center of the US populace.

The center of this graph constitutes the center of what's actually possible in terms of the political spectrum. Sweden/Denmark would be on the left. The US would be on the right. Someone like Canada or the UK would be in the center.
I think it's misleading to post a graph like this with no explanation, and that looking at a graph that is more in line with the US would be more valuable.

boy_bye

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #759 on: February 29, 2016, 11:11:09 AM »
The center of this graph is NOT meant to be the center of the US populace.

The center of this graph constitutes the center of what's actually possible in terms of the political spectrum. Sweden/Denmark would be on the left. The US would be on the right. Someone like Canada or the UK would be in the center.
I think it's misleading to post a graph like this with no explanation, and that looking at a graph that is more in line with the US would be more valuable.

It's possible to click through and see what's what. Maybe the Bing-type page is more valuable to you, but I kind of like seeing where US candidates are clustered in terms of the entire political spectrum, not just in the narrow range occupied by almost all of the candidates. It's interesting (and not at all surprised) to see where everyone is clustered.

Yaeger

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #760 on: February 29, 2016, 11:11:19 AM »
The center of this graph is NOT meant to be the center of the US populace.

The center of this graph constitutes the center of what's actually possible in terms of the political spectrum. Sweden/Denmark would be on the left. The US would be on the right. Someone like Canada or the UK would be in the center.

From the same source, everyone is right apparently:

http://politicalcompass.org/euchart



Translation: source is ridiculous.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #761 on: February 29, 2016, 11:16:30 AM »
[snipped out graph for conciseness]


Translation: source is ridiculous.


Yup.  Kind of makes me wonder what kind of a society would fit in the lower-left hand corner if places like Finland and Sweden are way right of center and Authoritarian in nature. 

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #762 on: February 29, 2016, 11:25:41 AM »
[snipped out graph for conciseness]


Translation: source is ridiculous.


Yup.  Kind of makes me wonder what kind of a society would fit in the lower-left hand corner if places like Finland and Sweden are way right of center and Authoritarian in nature.
I think to be in the lower left, 100% of your sallary goes to the government, who provides what they think you need, which I think would put you to the left of the graph. They also have probably very few or no laws, which would put you lower on the graph. I don't think I would like living in this type of society...

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #763 on: February 29, 2016, 11:28:59 AM »
Your argument also marginalizes the impact of other factors contributing to inequality: a decreased savings rate (14% in 1965 to less than 4% today), a cultural shift in accepting non-monetary benefits in lieu of pay, globalization, etc.

First of all, I think there's been a decrease in non-monetary benefits along with the decrease in pay. Namely, the loss of pensions. That decrease in total compensation, coming without a commensurate decrease in cost-of-living, means its no surprise the savings rate would decrease.

The KKK is a historically Democrat party organization. It was founded by Nathan Bedford Forrest, a Democrat Delegate and former Confederate General. It was the cultural arm of the southern Democrat during the Reconstruction and helped Democrat oppose civil rights legislation proposed by Republicans. They supported Democrat initiatives in passing the Jim Crow laws and upholding southern segregation.

Holy non-sequitur, Batman! WTF does the KKK have to do with anything?

I can only assume you're trying to smear Democrats by associating them with the KKK, but I can only assume you're ignorant of the fact that the Republicans eagerly adopted the racists during the Nixon campaign.

I think the center should be the center of the US.

By that logic, Kim Jong Un would be "centrist" relative to North Korea because all other ideologies are disallowed.

I think it's misleading to post a graph like this with no explanation, and that looking at a graph that is more in line with the US would be more valuable.

I didn't post it with no explanation; the graph itself is a link to the webpage explaining it.

[snipped out graph for conciseness]


Translation: source is ridiculous.


Yup.  Kind of makes me wonder what kind of a society would fit in the lower-left hand corner if places like Finland and Sweden are way right of center and Authoritarian in nature.
I think to be in the lower left, 100% of your sallary goes to the government, who provides what they think you need, which I think would put you to the left of the graph. They also have probably very few or no laws, which would put you lower on the graph. I don't think I would like living in this type of society...

I think the lower left would be something like a hippie commune, lower center (but maybe not all the way at the bottom) would be the Amish, and lower right would be Somalia.

(But yes, I concede the point that the calibration is off if all EU countries are portrayed right of center.)
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 11:34:05 AM by Jack »

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #764 on: February 29, 2016, 11:33:39 AM »
I think the center should be the center of the US.

By that logic, Kim Jong Un would be "centrist" relative to North Korea because all other ideologies are disallowed.
If I were in North Korea and actually got the right to vote, I would still find more value in a graph showing how the opinions of the candidates compare to that of the North Koreans, rather than how the opinions of the candidates compare to the "entire political spectrum"
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 11:36:29 AM by Jeremy E. »

beltim

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #765 on: February 29, 2016, 11:34:31 AM »
(But yes, I concede the point that the calibration is off if all EU countries are portrayed right of center.)

That's good to hear.  I thought it odd that my comment on this was getting crickets when I posted the same link yesterday.

Clinton = Sweden = fascist (as you said before) is a nonsensical equation. 

boy_bye

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #766 on: February 29, 2016, 11:35:51 AM »
I think the lower left would be something like a hippie commune, lower center (but maybe not all the way at the bottom) would be the Amish, and lower right would be Somalia.

(But yes, I concede the point that the calibration is off if all EU countries are portrayed right of center.)

Here's the explanation from the website itself, and I think they have a point. We don't really have any governments that are practicing true far-left progressivism, and there's a lot of racism that's popped up in the EU as they've had influxes of non-white immigrants, and a lot of state surveillance going on.

"In the western member states, however, the progressive abolition of economic restrictions seems generally to correspond to the extent of curbs on certain certain civil liberties. The most obvious example is the UK. But in other states, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, extremely liberal traditions in certain social policies have somewhat eroded as neoliberal economics have expanded."

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #767 on: February 29, 2016, 11:38:49 AM »

If I were in North Korea and actually got the right to vote, I would still find more value in a graph showing how the opinions of the candidates compare to that of the North Koreans, rather than how the opinions of the candidates compare to the "entire political spectrum"

They would exactly match, because it's a dictatorship and everyone who didn't match would be sent to the gulag. Kind of defeats the point of the graph, don't you think?

there's a lot of racism that's popped up in the EU as they've had influxes of non-white immigrants

In 2012, predating the refugee crisis?
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 11:40:23 AM by Jack »

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #768 on: February 29, 2016, 11:42:00 AM »

If I were in North Korea and actually got the right to vote, I would still find more value in a graph showing how the opinions of the candidates compare to that of the North Koreans, rather than how the opinions of the candidates compare to the "entire political spectrum"

They would exactly match, because it's a dictatorship and everyone who didn't match would be sent to the gulag. Kind of defeats the point of the graph, don't you think?
notice how I said, "and actually got the right to vote"
Talking about a communist country that has no right to vote is irrelevant when talking about how a graph will help in comparing candidates.

Yaeger

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #769 on: February 29, 2016, 11:45:03 AM »
Your argument also marginalizes the impact of other factors contributing to inequality: a decreased savings rate (14% in 1965 to less than 4% today), a cultural shift in accepting non-monetary benefits in lieu of pay, globalization, etc.

First of all, I think there's been a decrease in non-monetary benefits along with the decrease in pay. Namely, the loss of pensions. That decrease in total compensation, coming without a commensurate decrease in cost-of-living, means its no surprise the savings rate would decrease.

Total Compensation increasing since 1980 disproves the idea that non-monetary benefits AND wages have decreased. Total compensation has been, roughly, keeping pace with gains in productivity while wages remain stagnant. This implies that workers are exchanging wage increases for other benefits. Next time you're arguing for worker rights, realize that benefits like additional worker safety requirements, healthcare, maternity leave cost money and will likely impact your future wage growth. "There is no free lunch."

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/07/productivity-and-compensation-growing-together

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #770 on: February 29, 2016, 12:28:46 PM »
Things look bad for all presidential candidates not named Hillary according to predictwise.com,
Predictwise.com uses prediction markets, polling and odds to come up with percentages. Currently it says Hillary has a whopping 97% chance of getting the democratic nomination, up from last month when it was only 85%. Compared to Sanders 3% that was 15% last month.
It also says democrats have a 64% to win the general election, which predicts that Hillary has a 62% chance of being the next president and Sanders has a 2% chance.
It also predicts that Donald Trump has an 80% of getting the republican nomination, Rubio has a 16% chance, both Cruz and Kasich have a 2% chance, and Carson has essentially a 0% chance.
Since Republicans have a predicted 36% chance of winning the general election, that means Trump has a 29% chance of being president, Rubio has a 6% chance and Cruz/Kasich have less than a 1% chance. My backup hope of a Kasich presidency(now that Rand is out), and even a last resort hope of a Rubio presidency are both dwindling away. Hopefully there will be a miracle and Kasich or Rubio surprises everyone with a super tuesday victory.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #771 on: February 29, 2016, 12:59:40 PM »
Things look bad for all presidential candidates not named Hillary according to predictwise.com,
Predictwise.com uses prediction markets, polling and odds to come up with percentages. Currently it says Hillary has a whopping 97% chance of getting the democratic nomination, up from last month when it was only 85%. Compared to Sanders 3% that was 15% last month.
It also says democrats have a 64% to win the general election, which predicts that Hillary has a 62% chance of being the next president and Sanders has a 2% chance.
It also predicts that Donald Trump has an 80% of getting the republican nomination, Rubio has a 16% chance, both Cruz and Kasich have a 2% chance, and Carson has essentially a 0% chance.
Since Republicans have a predicted 36% chance of winning the general election, that means Trump has a 29% chance of being president, Rubio has a 6% chance and Cruz/Kasich have less than a 1% chance. My backup hope of a Kasich presidency(now that Rand is out), and even a last resort hope of a Rubio presidency are both dwindling away. Hopefully there will be a miracle and Kasich or Rubio surprises everyone with a super tuesday victory.
I believe you are confounding the likelihood of Trump winning the nomination (currently at 80% according to you/predictwise.com) and the likelihood of a republican becoming president (currently at 36%) and concluding that Trump has a 29% chance of being president (0.8 x 0.36 = 0.288 ~0.29 or 29%).

Unfortunately this is not how statistics works.

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #772 on: February 29, 2016, 01:31:13 PM »
Things look bad for all presidential candidates not named Hillary according to predictwise.com,
Predictwise.com uses prediction markets, polling and odds to come up with percentages. Currently it says Hillary has a whopping 97% chance of getting the democratic nomination, up from last month when it was only 85%. Compared to Sanders 3% that was 15% last month.
It also says democrats have a 64% to win the general election, which predicts that Hillary has a 62% chance of being the next president and Sanders has a 2% chance.
It also predicts that Donald Trump has an 80% of getting the republican nomination, Rubio has a 16% chance, both Cruz and Kasich have a 2% chance, and Carson has essentially a 0% chance.
Since Republicans have a predicted 36% chance of winning the general election, that means Trump has a 29% chance of being president, Rubio has a 6% chance and Cruz/Kasich have less than a 1% chance. My backup hope of a Kasich presidency(now that Rand is out), and even a last resort hope of a Rubio presidency are both dwindling away. Hopefully there will be a miracle and Kasich or Rubio surprises everyone with a super tuesday victory.
I believe you are confounding the likelihood of Trump winning the nomination (currently at 80% according to you/predictwise.com) and the likelihood of a republican becoming president (currently at 36%) and concluding that Trump has a 29% chance of being president (0.8 x 0.36 = 0.288 ~0.29 or 29%).

Unfortunately this is not how statistics works.
With the given information, then it can be extrapolated this way. Sure, maybe statistics show that if Rubio wins nomination then he has a 100% chance of beating Clinton. Then he would have a 16% chance of being president rather than 6%, and Trump would have a lower percent chance of becoming president, but we don't know this information.

Edit: Predictwise does have this information,
Clinton 64%, Trump 26%, Rubio 5%, Sanders 2%, Cruz/Kasich/Bloomberg 1%
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 02:04:34 PM by Jeremy E. »

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #773 on: February 29, 2016, 02:45:36 PM »
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/
This is pretty cool, it estimated a delegate target for each candidate based on how well they are expected to do in each state, I don't think the democrat one shows anything about superdelegates, so it could be skewed. It also might not take into account that they may target less when there are 6 still in the running, but more when there are only 2, but that's impossible to predict.  it seems pretty accurate otherwise.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #774 on: February 29, 2016, 07:56:51 PM »
(But yes, I concede the point that the calibration is off if all EU countries are portrayed right of center.)

That's good to hear.  I thought it odd that my comment on this was getting crickets when I posted the same link yesterday.

Clinton = Sweden = fascist (as you said before) is a nonsensical equation.

Yup, I saw your post, beltim, and thought you had a great point.  I took the quiz out of curiosity and it put me almost dead center of the plot -- actually, on the left/right scale, I was at dead center -- which is super weird, and inconsistent with how they plot the presidential candidates, in light of my views of several of the biggest issues being debated in our country.  Perhaps I misinterpreted several of their questions?

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #775 on: February 29, 2016, 08:25:52 PM »
(But yes, I concede the point that the calibration is off if all EU countries are portrayed right of center.)

That's good to hear.  I thought it odd that my comment on this was getting crickets when I posted the same link yesterday.

Clinton = Sweden = fascist (as you said before) is a nonsensical equation.

Yup, I saw your post, beltim, and thought you had a great point.  I took the quiz out of curiosity and it put me almost dead center of the plot -- actually, on the left/right scale, I was at dead center -- which is super weird, and inconsistent with how they plot the presidential candidates, in light of my views of several of the biggest issues being debated in our country.  Perhaps I misinterpreted several of their questions?

I did this quiz yesterday, and what I found is that many of the questions imply too much authoritarianism for me regardless of which direction I take.  The very first statement, "If economic globalisation is inevitable, it should primarily serve humanity rather than the interests of trans-national corporations," implies that either you support the corporate vampires or you support the channeling of economic globalisation's benefits toward whatever people deem to "serve humanity." Both options are bad to me; the first implies that we should all let corporations pillage everything; and the second implies some purportedly benevolent organization, of unknown origins, being given outsized influence in deciding what "serves humanity."

Looking over the results, I tested far closer to center than I ever have before; still there's not a single politician in my whole quadrant, nor scarcely a political party in sight. I agree with the poster above who suggested that the plot would be more useful if it used the center as a center of candidates or politicians, or something that results in using more than one quadrant. Maybe the point of the website is just to say "look, stable governments always have authoritarian streaks and some sense of tradition/national identity."

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #776 on: March 01, 2016, 01:44:12 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)
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arebelspy

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Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #777 on: March 01, 2016, 01:46:58 AM »
Oh, and let me double down: despite what is routinely agreed upon as a disastrous first term, Trump gets reelected in 2020.
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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #778 on: March 01, 2016, 01:56:13 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Why do you use last names to refer to one candidate and first names to refer to the other?

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #779 on: March 01, 2016, 02:00:12 AM »
That is what I most commonly hear them called.

I would assume it's because just saying "Clinton" did something could cause confusion over which one.

Just like after George W., George Bush suddenly became George HW Bush. Almost no one called him that before, but after just saying Bush could be confusing.
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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #780 on: March 01, 2016, 06:20:26 AM »
Oh, and let me double down: despite what is routinely agreed upon as a disastrous first term, Trump gets reelected in 2020.

I agree with both, and the sentiment. the only thing I see stopping him from being reelected is the Tea Party realizes he is not one of them combined with a vindictive establishment. or another transitional candidate like trump, i.e.; the anti-trump.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #781 on: March 01, 2016, 06:38:24 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Why do you use last names to refer to one candidate and first names to refer to the other?

That is what I most commonly hear them called.

I would assume it's because just saying "Clinton" did something could cause confusion over which one.

Just like after George W., George Bush suddenly became George HW Bush. Almost no one called him that before, but after just saying Bush could be confusing.

Plus, Hillary wants to be called Hillary -- hence, her campaign logo of the capital H.  Also, if you go to her website, you'll see that the writing refers to her as Hillary (e.g., "Hillary has a plan . . . ").  Purportedly that also makes her more relatable to everyday Americans -- i.e., she's your best girlfriend, not some titled society member.  In contrast, Trump has worked decades to build a "Trump" brand, and if you go to the Trump website, it appears he prefers to use his last name (e.g., "Mr. Trump has . . . ").

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #782 on: March 01, 2016, 06:57:05 AM »
Things look bad for all presidential candidates not named Hillary according to predictwise.com,
Predictwise.com uses prediction markets, polling and odds to come up with percentages. Currently it says Hillary has a whopping 97% chance of getting the democratic nomination, up from last month when it was only 85%. Compared to Sanders 3% that was 15% last month.
It also says democrats have a 64% to win the general election, which predicts that Hillary has a 62% chance of being the next president and Sanders has a 2% chance.
It also predicts that Donald Trump has an 80% of getting the republican nomination, Rubio has a 16% chance, both Cruz and Kasich have a 2% chance, and Carson has essentially a 0% chance.
Since Republicans have a predicted 36% chance of winning the general election, that means Trump has a 29% chance of being president, Rubio has a 6% chance and Cruz/Kasich have less than a 1% chance. My backup hope of a Kasich presidency(now that Rand is out), and even a last resort hope of a Rubio presidency are both dwindling away. Hopefully there will be a miracle and Kasich or Rubio surprises everyone with a super tuesday victory.
I believe you are confounding the likelihood of Trump winning the nomination (currently at 80% according to you/predictwise.com) and the likelihood of a republican becoming president (currently at 36%) and concluding that Trump has a 29% chance of being president (0.8 x 0.36 = 0.288 ~0.29 or 29%).

Unfortunately this is not how statistics works.
With the given information, then it can be extrapolated this way. Sure, maybe statistics show that if Rubio wins nomination then he has a 100% chance of beating Clinton. Then he would have a 16% chance of being president rather than 6%, and Trump would have a lower percent chance of becoming president, but we don't know this information.

Edit: Predictwise does have this information,
Clinton 64%, Trump 26%, Rubio 5%, Sanders 2%, Cruz/Kasich/Bloomberg 1%
No, it can't be extrapolated this way, at least not correctly.  It assumes that whomever wins the party nomination has the same proportional chance of winning the Presidency, which isn't true (and which you've already argued against upthread).
Also, I'm unclear about your edit - I assume that it is talking about a candidate's chance at being elected President?  Interesting that Bloomberg (who has done little more than form an exploratory committee) gets the same chances as Cruz and Kasich.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #783 on: March 01, 2016, 07:11:05 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Why do you use last names to refer to one candidate and first names to refer to the other?

That is what I most commonly hear them called.

I would assume it's because just saying "Clinton" did something could cause confusion over which one.

Just like after George W., George Bush suddenly became George HW Bush. Almost no one called him that before, but after just saying Bush could be confusing.

Plus, Hillary wants to be called Hillary -- hence, her campaign logo of the capital H.  Also, if you go to her website, you'll see that the writing refers to her as Hillary (e.g., "Hillary has a plan . . . ").  Purportedly that also makes her more relatable to everyday Americans -- i.e., she's your best girlfriend, not some titled society member.  In contrast, Trump has worked decades to build a "Trump" brand, and if you go to the Trump website, it appears he prefers to use his last name (e.g., "Mr. Trump has . . . ").
Actually no.  Her stated preference to be called Rodham Clinton, yet many people used Hillary instead even though it was clear she wanted to be treated as the men were.  Since that did not work, and she is in the business of doing what is most likely to get her elected, she went with what people wanted to call her and made it work.  Same as she positively responded to the question about Mr. Clinton doing First Lady behavior, she does what will make the voter less displeased.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #784 on: March 01, 2016, 07:18:58 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Might as well make my prediction as well here.
My prediction is different from arebelspy's.

This November, Hillary defeats Trump*

Hillary looses re-election in 2020 to a republican not named Trump.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

* I'll go even a bit further than arebelspy.  Clinton wins the following states:  HI, CA, OR, WA, NV, all of New England, NY, PA, OH, MI, WI, IL, MD, DE, VA, DC  That pushes her past 270 (273 by my counts) before considering FL, MN & NM (which could all be interesting and close races).

Trump takes the entire South except VA (& possibly FL), and he takes all the states not touching the west coast or a great lake (except NV, which votes for Clinton), and possibly NM.  Under these predictions, he absolutely needs to win FL & OH and either VA or PA to get enough electoral votes (all very tough states for both sides, and he needs at least 3 out of 4).

FL continues to be a coin flip, but assuming Hillary wins OH, PA, VA and Christie doesn't flip NJ it won't matter either way. The populous NoVA is friendly territory for Hillary, and Obama carrired OH and PA in both elections, and PA hasn't voted for a republican President since '88.


EDIT:  corrected states i predict will be won by either candidate.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2016, 08:27:13 AM by nereo »

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #785 on: March 01, 2016, 07:26:06 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Why do you think this, Rebs? Just a hunch? What's your thinking behind it?

I keep thinking about people in 1930s Germany, and everyone is like "Why didn't they do anything when Hitler was rising to power?"

But now that we are watching our own terrible person rising to power I'm just wondering -- what CAN we do? It's not like Trump supporters can be reasoned with. They are voting out of a feeling that something is being taken away from them by the bad brown people, and I just don't know how you can reason with that level of insanity and myopia.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #786 on: March 01, 2016, 07:32:45 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Why do you think this, Rebs? Just a hunch? What's your thinking behind it?

I keep thinking about people in 1930s Germany, and everyone is like "Why didn't they do anything when Hitler was rising to power?"

But now that we are watching our own terrible person rising to power I'm just wondering -- what CAN we do? It's not like Trump supporters can be reasoned with. They are voting out of a feeling that something is being taken away from them by the bad brown people, and I just don't know how you can reason with that level of insanity and myopia.
Vote.  Talk to people (that are sane) and get them to register to vote.  Order registration cards so you have them around so people can register.  We moved and I requested a new voter reg card, it has been 2 weeks and no card.  That is a problem.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #787 on: March 01, 2016, 07:35:16 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Why do you think this, Rebs? Just a hunch? What's your thinking behind it?

I keep thinking about people in 1930s Germany, and everyone is like "Why didn't they do anything when Hitler was rising to power?"

But now that we are watching our own terrible person rising to power I'm just wondering -- what CAN we do? It's not like Trump supporters can be reasoned with. They are voting out of a feeling that something is being taken away from them by the bad brown people, and I just don't know how you can reason with that level of insanity and myopia.
Vote.  Talk to people (that are sane) and get them to register to vote.  Order registration cards so you have them around so people can register.  We moved and I requested a new voter reg card, it has been 2 weeks and no card.  That is a problem.

Right. It just ... Doesn't seem like enough.

Gin1984

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #788 on: March 01, 2016, 07:36:42 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Why do you think this, Rebs? Just a hunch? What's your thinking behind it?

I keep thinking about people in 1930s Germany, and everyone is like "Why didn't they do anything when Hitler was rising to power?"

But now that we are watching our own terrible person rising to power I'm just wondering -- what CAN we do? It's not like Trump supporters can be reasoned with. They are voting out of a feeling that something is being taken away from them by the bad brown people, and I just don't know how you can reason with that level of insanity and myopia.
Vote.  Talk to people (that are sane) and get them to register to vote.  Order registration cards so you have them around so people can register.  We moved and I requested a new voter reg card, it has been 2 weeks and no card.  That is a problem.

Right. It just ... Doesn't seem like enough.
Well you could connect with the local labor council and do precinct walking or phone banking, but that normally seems like more effort than most people want to do.   The voting and "happening to have voter reg cards", is more than most people do and would be be a help.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #789 on: March 01, 2016, 07:43:40 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Optimism gun in the shop rebs?

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #790 on: March 01, 2016, 08:05:49 AM »
* I'll go even a bit further than arebelspy.  Clinton wins the following states:  HI, CA, OR, WA, NV, all of New England, PA, OH, MI, WI, IL, MD, DE, VA, DC  That pushes her past 270 (273 by my counts) before considering FL, MN & NM (which could all be interesting and close races).

You don't think Hillary will take New York?

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #791 on: March 01, 2016, 08:28:57 AM »
* I'll go even a bit further than arebelspy.  Clinton wins the following states:  HI, CA, OR, WA, NV, all of New England, PA, OH, MI, WI, IL, MD, DE, VA, DC  That pushes her past 270 (273 by my counts) before considering FL, MN & NM (which could all be interesting and close races).

You don't think Hillary will take New York?
Oops, sorry.  Yes I do think Hillary will win NY (a bit ironically given Trump has been a presence there much longer than Hillary).  Hillary's winning in NY was part of my prediction that she would win the electoral vote.  I have edited my prediction above to reflect this.

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #792 on: March 01, 2016, 08:35:48 AM »
Well, with Super Tuesday mere hours away, time to put my prediction down:

This November, Trump defeats Hillary.

(Please note that a prediction is different than a wish.)

Optimism gun in the shop rebs?

I remain optimistic about the future of the world, long term.

I remain a realistic person, as well.  I do think there may be some short term pain.
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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #793 on: March 01, 2016, 08:39:12 AM »
@arebelspy -
I'm curious about how you think Trump will win (in whatever metric(s) you've used to reach your prediction) - Any ideas what the % of the popular vote will be, and/or the electoral map (who will win which states)?

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #794 on: March 01, 2016, 09:18:03 AM »
I also hold the following two beliefs:
- Any Democrat not named Hillary beats any Republican in November.
- Any Republican not named Trump defeats Hillary in November.

(I.e. If the Dems put up anyone but her, they win, if they put up her, they lose UNLESS the Reps put up Trump.)

Trump v. Hillary is the only interesting potential race.  And, as stated above, my money is on Trump in that race (so, in other words, she loses to everyone).
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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #795 on: March 01, 2016, 09:50:06 AM »
I hold different beliefs: 

If Rubio wins the nomination (not likely) either Dem will likely lose.
If Trump wins the nomination, either Dem will likely win. 
If there is a major terrorist attack or a financial crisis before the election, the Republican wins, no matter who. 

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #796 on: March 01, 2016, 09:56:54 AM »
I hold different beliefs: 

If Rubio wins the nomination (not likely) either Dem will likely lose.
If Trump wins the nomination, either Dem will likely win. 
If there is a major terrorist attack or a financial crisis before the election, the Republican wins, no matter who.

I believe your first two points.  I'm not so certain about the third - I'd say it depends on what Obama's reaction is to the crisis.  Don't forget how support of hte current president often spikes after an attack - that support could carry over to Hillary if it's close enough to the election.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #797 on: March 01, 2016, 10:21:36 AM »
I hold different beliefs: 

If Rubio wins the nomination (not likely) either Dem will likely lose.
If Trump wins the nomination, either Dem will likely win. 
If there is a major terrorist attack or a financial crisis before the election, the Republican wins, no matter who.

I believe your first two points.  I'm not so certain about the third - I'd say it depends on what Obama's reaction is to the crisis.  Don't forget how support of hte current president often spikes after an attack - that support could carry over to Hillary if it's close enough to the election.

I think the general rules about politics ending at the shore no longer exist. Look at what happened in Benghazi during the Presidential election. Romney immediately used it to attack Obama. Nope, if a terrorist attack happens in the next 10 months, in less than 24 hours the GOP talking heads will be blaming it on Obama and Hillary.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #798 on: March 01, 2016, 10:31:24 AM »
I hold different beliefs: 

If Rubio wins the nomination (not likely) either Dem will likely lose.
If Trump wins the nomination, either Dem will likely win. 
If there is a major terrorist attack or a financial crisis before the election, the Republican wins, no matter who.
I agree with your first 2 points as well, I actually made those predictions like 3 pages ago in this thread, but no one agreed with me at the time.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #799 on: March 01, 2016, 10:39:56 AM »
I think most people would agree with those, and I think most people will be wrong, and it will shift to more disbelief that it can't happen over the summer.  That's why I had to call it now.  :)
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