Author Topic: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate  (Read 738047 times)

forummm

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1400 on: May 04, 2016, 12:22:10 PM »
For those of you saying Trump will be president, you are delusional. Clinton is far more likely to be president, so at best you can say Trump has a small chance of being president.
Before getting into Swing States, Clinton already has an advantage because the "democratic states" provide 217 electoral votes whereas the "republican states" provide only 191.
Of the Swing states, Nevada, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and New Hampshire, Trump is only expected to win North Carolina, and Florida is a toss up. That means Clinton is expected to win 9.5 out of 11 swing states, on top of already being ahead in electoral votes from non-swing states. Trump is very likely to lose.

Trump is the underdog. For now. I think it's more likely that he won't be president. But a lot can happen between now and then. Especially if he's facing Clinton. People really hate her and won't change their minds on that. And she has potential scandals that could really tip the election. And Trump has been fantastic so far at elevating himself and demoting others. It's far from a sure thing.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1401 on: May 04, 2016, 12:41:30 PM »
Three months ago I would have bet my house that Trump could never become President.

Now I wouldn't even bet $10.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1402 on: May 04, 2016, 12:55:21 PM »
Quote
Drumpf is the underdog. For now. I think it's more likely that he won't be president. But a lot can happen between now and then. Especially if he's facing Clinton. People really hate her and won't change their minds on that. And she has potential scandals that could really tip the election. And Drumpf has been fantastic so far at elevating himself and demoting others. It's far from a sure thing.

I agree.  Seeing Democrats chortle in glee at the thought of going against Trump is making me very, very nervous.  I am actually glad that Bernie is around just in case she gets indicted or something else goes down.  The thought of a Trump presidency is just deeply, deeply frightening, but it has a bigger shot of happening than most people would think. 

forummm

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1403 on: May 04, 2016, 01:16:45 PM »
Not really useful "news", but Kasich is suspending his campaign too.

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1404 on: May 04, 2016, 01:17:46 PM »
Quote
I think he has a legitimate shot at beating Clinton. A really good shot. Sanders would crush him. But Clinton is very vulnerable.
I really would not your reasoning for that.

That's what all poll results have shown in pitting Sanders v. any of the Republicans, he beats them hands down (much easier than Clinton, who also beats them, but it's closer).

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Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1405 on: May 04, 2016, 01:52:09 PM »
Quote
I think he has a legitimate shot at beating Clinton. A really good shot. Sanders would crush him. But Clinton is very vulnerable.
I really would not your reasoning for that.

That's what all poll results have shown in pitting Sanders v. any of the Republicans, he beats them hands down (much easier than Clinton, who also beats them, but it's closer).
Generally Sanders tied against Kasich, although Kasich never had much of a chance of getting Repub nom, sort of like how Sanders doesn't have a chance to get dem nom now

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1406 on: May 04, 2016, 01:56:06 PM »
For those of you saying Trump will be president, you are delusional. Clinton is far more likely to be president, so at best you can say Trump has a small chance of being president.
Before getting into Swing States, Clinton already has an advantage because the "democratic states" provide 217 electoral votes whereas the "republican states" provide only 191.
Of the Swing states, Nevada, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and New Hampshire, Trump is only expected to win North Carolina, and Florida is a toss up. That means Clinton is expected to win 9.5 out of 11 swing states, on top of already being ahead in electoral votes from non-swing states. Trump is very likely to lose.

Trump is the underdog. For now. I think it's more likely that he won't be president. But a lot can happen between now and then. Especially if he's facing Clinton. People really hate her and won't change their minds on that. And she has potential scandals that could really tip the election. And Trump has been fantastic so far at elevating himself and demoting others. It's far from a sure thing.
Sure lots of people don't like Clinton... But about 10% more people don't like Trump.

infogoon

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1407 on: May 04, 2016, 02:05:17 PM »
Isn't it amazing that a months-long primary process that started with twenty candidates and cost billions of dollars ended up with two nominees: the two most unlikeable ones, with the most unfavorable numbers from the opposite parties. Polarization!

forummm

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1408 on: May 04, 2016, 02:20:09 PM »
Isn't it amazing that a months-long primary process that started with twenty candidates and cost billions of dollars ended up with two nominees: the two most unlikeable ones, with the most unfavorable numbers from the opposite parties. Polarization!

Yeah. And both have pretty high unfavorables within their own parties too. It's a weird cycle.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1409 on: May 04, 2016, 05:08:11 PM »
For those who think Trump will be crushed....let me remind you of something:  GWB.  Twice.  How many people thought this guy was a total doofus?  And yet he got elected twice.  Ya don't think Trump who can command huge audiences the way he does can pull this off?  He's twice as smart, charismatic, and seems to be made of Teflon.  Racist?  Fraud?  Liar?  He CRUSHED it, with 3 candidates at his heals.  Actual Ivy League grads, totally viable candidates-and the boat got flipped!  I wish Cruz didn't futz this up before California, Trump truly is more than a punchline now.  All he has to do is rail on about all the things that have never been addressed well-and he will bring turnout.  Illegal immigration, NAFTA, China/Russia relations, war, jobs.  He emboldens every person who thinks the world is screwing them over, even democrats.  For every American told "take the medicine, everything is under control, it'll be alright" while in fact it wasn't....this will be their election.  A lot of these people have been ignored, disrespected, and dumped on.  Their jobs are gone, their bills are higher, the prospects are lower, and there is a new brand of "Hope and Change" coming this November.  I predict (and dread) a Trump victory.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1410 on: May 04, 2016, 05:31:36 PM »
I don't know if Trump will be "crushed", but I don't see him winning. Possible? Of course.

GWB had wide appeal among the Republican party, if I recall. Trump does not. He has a ton of support from angry blue collar men. They're very loud and generate a lot of headlines, but I don't think that translates to a general win. There aren't enough of them in the states needed. The electoral college demographics are not great for Trump.

wenchsenior

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1411 on: May 04, 2016, 06:54:49 PM »
I don't know if Trump will be "crushed", but I don't see him winning. Possible? Of course.

GWB had wide appeal among the Republican party, if I recall. Trump does not. He has a ton of support from angry blue collar men. They're very loud and generate a lot of headlines, but I don't think that translates to a general win. There aren't enough of them in the states needed. The electoral college demographics are not great for Trump.

GWB also made relatively large inroads with Hispanics and women. I was surprised by his second win, but that might have been because the more calm, cerebral, wonky Obama/Kerry/Paul Ryan types are MUCH more appealing to me as leaders than the loud, macho, slogan-spouting, dick-swingers...and I just don't understand how people continue to vote for the GWB type, but I digress.

 I think Trump is a much more dangerous candidate than Cruz, who I really do think would have been crushed in the general. Demographics of a typical presidential election don't favor Trump, but he is turning out some apathetic people who normally don't vote AND his strong suit is churning up the white, male, blue-collar demographic that is important in several swing states (PA, OH, WI, MI, etc.) which might flip a handful of them. Whether that is enough to overcome his likely staggering deficit with minorities and women I am, at this point, doubtful.

However, this is based on my pretty accurate read of the past 4 election cycles. THIS election cycle I have been wrong about everything in the Republican primary so far. I was sure the ticket would be some combo of Jeb/Marco/Walker/Kasich. The combo of anti-establishment-ism and Trump's media savvy has made me seriously doubt my ability to predict anything.

Mathematically, the Dem contest was all but over as of Super Tuesday. I'm glad Bernie stayed in for a while, but at this point, I would hope he turns his attention to building more of a grass roots movement (which the GOP excels at and the Dems suck at), rather than tearing Clinton down further. One thing I will say with conviction: Clinton appears to have lucked out this cycle in terms of GOP opponents. She's disliked, and as establishment as they come. Almost any decent, centrist GOP ticket could have had a fair shot at her.  But instead, the nuttiest of the GOP nutballs made it to the finals...and Trump's barely contained misogyny and bigotry will likely play in Clinton's favor.


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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1412 on: May 04, 2016, 07:13:18 PM »
The electoral map is shaping up.  I'm still predicting an easy Clinton victory.

Generally speaking, most states will vote in a predictable red/blue pattern.  The Republicans will carry most of the south (191 votes), the Democrats will carry most of the coasts (237 votes).  In between are nine battle ground states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire.  Together they total 110 electoral votes.

To reach the required 270 votes for the Presidency, they will fight for those last 110 votes. 

Clinton needs to find 33 more votes out of those 110.  If she wins Florida's 29 votes, then winning ANY other state on the battleground list clinches the election for her.  Basically, Florida is a must-win for Trump.

If Clinton loses Florida but wins Ohio's 18, she can still clinch it with just North Carolina or two of the remaining 7 battleground states, say Colorado and Iowa or Virginia and New Hampshire.  Basically, Ohio is also a must-win for Trump.

So what happens if Trump wins both Ohio AND Florida on election day?  Suddenly Clinton has a race on her hands.  In that case, she has to either win Virginia's 13 votes and get a little lucky elsewhere, or lose FL/OH/VA but take all the rest (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin).

Of the nine battle ground states, only one (North Carolina in 2012) has voted Republican in the past two election cycles.


edit:  Clinton is currently leading Trump by 5% in Florida, 3.5% in Ohio, and 13% in Virginia.  Trump has to turn all three of those around to have any reasonable chance of being President.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2016, 10:13:14 PM by sol »

randymarsh

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1413 on: May 04, 2016, 09:55:01 PM »
The electoral map is shaping up.  I'm still predicting an easy Clinton victory.

I agree.

I will be amazed if Trump wins CO. The young/educated Denver bloc will not vote for Trump, period, and that's where the votes are.

He has a better chance in OH but I'll still be surprised. I grew up in a blue collar area, but I think many Republicans will hesitate on Trump. They'll either stay home, write in Kasich, or decide Clinton can't be "that bad". He'll win the more poor rural counties, but I think that's it.

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1414 on: May 05, 2016, 02:26:09 AM »
Kanye would point out that Trump is set to have the most votes for any Republican primary candidate OF ALL TIME.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/twelve-thirty-seven/2016/04/donald-trump-popular-vote-record-222510

(Now, granted, the population is larger now... but the thought is also that we have more apathy now, and lower voter participation, so it's still significant.  He got more than Romney or McCain, and they were relatively recent--i.e. larger population as well.)
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Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1415 on: May 05, 2016, 02:33:42 AM »
Kanye would point out that Trump is set to have the most votes for any Republican primary candidate OF ALL TIME.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/twelve-thirty-seven/2016/04/donald-trump-popular-vote-record-222510

(Now, granted, the population is larger now... but the thought is also that we have more apathy now, and lower voter participation, so it's still significant.  He got more than Romney or McCain, and they were relatively recent--i.e. larger population as well.)
a much larger percentage of people will turn out for the general election, and so many of them dislike Trump. I don't think it matters if he had good primary turnout.

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1416 on: May 05, 2016, 02:41:24 AM »
a much larger percentage of people will turn out for the general election, and so many of them dislike Trump. I don't think it matters if he had good primary turnout.

No, I wouldn't try to draw any conclusions on the general based on that.

But it is interesting, for how many people can't seem to believe that Trump is winning--he has a lot of people that like him.
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GuitarStv

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1417 on: May 05, 2016, 06:23:29 AM »
One thing I will say with conviction: Clinton appears to have lucked out this cycle in terms of GOP opponents. She's disliked, and as establishment as they come. Almost any decent, centrist GOP ticket could have had a fair shot at her.  But instead, the nuttiest of the GOP nutballs made it to the finals...and Trump's barely contained misogyny and bigotry will likely play in Clinton's favor.

Yeah, but that's because these nutballs are the people the party really want leading them.

Ottawa

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1418 on: May 05, 2016, 06:27:20 AM »
Tally up -- who called Trump as the GOP nominee?
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politics/ted-cruz-drops-out/index.html

Well, Scott Adams, the comic who created Dilbert called not only Trump as the GOP nominee, but also continues to say that Trump will win the election in a landslide.

Interestingly, he has publicly documented his predictions along the way in detail.  In a nutshell, his predictions are based on how well Trump plays in the 3rd dimension as a persuasion artist.  Well worth digging through the archives, and keeping up to date with his posts. He believes HRC will be absolutely destroyed.  I have to say, I do buy in to what he is saying....

I enjoyed his recent post "Clinton Versus Trump" http://blog.dilbert.com/post/143789982926/clinton-versus-trump-persuasion-scores


MrStash2000

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1419 on: May 05, 2016, 07:18:26 AM »
That Scott Adams blog is excellent. It is a solid read on Persuasion. 

Someone on this site posted it in January and it convinced me to switch parties to vote for Trump in the primaries.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 07:22:26 AM by clarkevii »

Proud Foot

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1420 on: May 05, 2016, 07:45:21 AM »
If Trump does become the President I might go back and rewatch all the Simpsons episodes and see if I can learn anything else from there...

Ottawa

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1421 on: May 05, 2016, 07:55:38 AM »
If Trump does become the President I might go back and rewatch all the Simpsons episodes and see if I can learn anything else from there...

Or, you could also come to Canada :-)

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1422 on: May 05, 2016, 08:10:41 AM »
If Trump does become the President I might go back and rewatch all the Simpsons episodes and see if I can learn anything else from there...

Or, you could also come to Canada :-)

Oh yes, because we haven't had our fair share of whack-jobs and ass-hats in high political offices here in Canada over the years....

Ottawa

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1423 on: May 05, 2016, 08:16:20 AM »
If Trump does become the President I might go back and rewatch all the Simpsons episodes and see if I can learn anything else from there...

Or, you could also come to Canada :-)

Oh yes, because we haven't had our fair share of whack-jobs and ass-hats in high political offices here in Canada over the years....

I'm not sure that we've had anything on the scale of unpalatable menu choice currently available in the US.  That would be an unfair comparison.

hoping2retire35

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1424 on: May 05, 2016, 08:16:42 AM »
The electoral map is shaping up.  I'm still predicting an easy Clinton victory.

Generally speaking, most states will vote in a predictable red/blue pattern.  The Republicans will carry most of the south (191 votes), the Democrats will carry most of the coasts (237 votes).  In between are nine battle ground states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire.  Together they total 110 electoral votes.

To reach the required 270 votes for the Presidency, they will fight for those last 110 votes. 

Clinton needs to find 33 more votes out of those 110.  If she wins Florida's 29 votes, then winning ANY other state on the battleground list clinches the election for her.  Basically, Florida is a must-win for Trump.

If Clinton loses Florida but wins Ohio's 18, she can still clinch it with just North Carolina or two of the remaining 7 battleground states, say Colorado and Iowa or Virginia and New Hampshire.  Basically, Ohio is also a must-win for Trump.

So what happens if Trump wins both Ohio AND Florida on election day?  Suddenly Clinton has a race on her hands.  In that case, she has to either win Virginia's 13 votes and get a little lucky elsewhere, or lose FL/OH/VA but take all the rest (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin).

Of the nine battle ground states, only one (North Carolina in 2012) has voted Republican in the past two election cycles.


edit:  Clinton is currently leading Trump by 5% in Florida, 3.5% in Ohio, and 13% in Virginia.  Trump has to turn all three of those around to have any reasonable chance of being President.

My guess, based mainly on primary results and understanding of the swing states, Clinton only takes Va., maybe new hampshire, also a little unsure of Colorado, I don't really gets its dynamic. I don't think it will be a landslide but something along the lines of low 200s Clinton and low 300s Trump.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1425 on: May 05, 2016, 08:19:12 AM »
If Trump does become the President I might go back and rewatch all the Simpsons episodes and see if I can learn anything else from there...

Or, you could also come to Canada :-)

Oh yes, because we haven't had our fair share of whack-jobs and ass-hats in high political offices here in Canada over the years....

I'm not sure that we've had anything on the scale of unpalatable menu choice currently available in the US.  That would be an unfair comparison.

To each their own, I suppose.  I'm guessing from your name you are in Ottawa.  I'm in Quebec...

Ottawa

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1426 on: May 05, 2016, 08:28:08 AM »
If Trump does become the President I might go back and rewatch all the Simpsons episodes and see if I can learn anything else from there...

Or, you could also come to Canada :-)



Oh yes, because we haven't had our fair share of whack-jobs and ass-hats in high political offices here in Canada over the years....

I'm not sure that we've had anything on the scale of unpalatable menu choice currently available in the US.  That would be an unfair comparison.

To each their own, I suppose.  I'm guessing from your name you are in Ottawa.  I'm in Quebec...

Well, yes.  I'm thinking Federal politics.  Obviously there are Ontario/Quebec and big city politics that run rife with examples of dumb-assity. 

forummm

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1427 on: May 05, 2016, 08:42:43 AM »
The electoral map is shaping up.  I'm still predicting an easy Clinton victory.

I think it's most likely that Clinton will win, and that it won't be close. But I don't think it's 95% likely. People have been overestimating her appeal for years. And underestimating his the whole cycle.

She lost to a black guy with a "terrorist sounding" and hard to pronounce name. And she had the biggest political machine powering her. This time she almost lost to a frumpy guy from a tiny state who openly calls himself something that contains the word "socialist" in it who refused to take money from all the places you normally get money. And if his campaign was better organized, I think she would have actually lost to him again. And she has the biggest political machine this time too.

He has catapulted himself higher and higher, shrugging off "campaign ending" remark after "campaign ending" remark. And he's a really intuitively adept campaigner. And he has a lot of great material he could use against her. And he's very effective on the debate stage, and she's not. And she has some potential bombs hovering over her head right now.

The general hasn't really started. This is far from settled. Trump has a really decent chance at being elected.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1428 on: May 05, 2016, 08:50:35 AM »
I just hope Trump kind of gets bored if he wins and messes around with a new casino build or something and lets his advisors run the country.

Or maybe he will visit the ISS for a few years.  That would be huge.

forummm

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1429 on: May 05, 2016, 09:02:55 AM »
I just hope Trump kind of gets bored if he wins and messes around with a new casino build or something and lets his advisors run the country.

Maybe he would really prioritize building infrastructure? It might all be gold-plated, but I think gold-plated water pipes would be healthier than the lead pipes we have in a lot of the country.

Or maybe he will visit the ISS for a few years.  That would be huge.

The trip wouldn't be too difficult. He's full of hot air and his head is already in the clouds.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1430 on: May 05, 2016, 09:13:44 AM »
The trip wouldn't be too difficult. He's full of hot air and his head is already in the clouds.

Would need an extra booster though for that orange toupee

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1431 on: May 05, 2016, 09:19:48 AM »
Secret Service Trainer:  Your job is to protect the United States by protecting the President from all possible threats.
Trainee: Wait, which one do you want us to do?

Ottawa

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1432 on: May 05, 2016, 09:42:23 AM »
The electoral map is shaping up.  I'm still predicting an easy Clinton victory.

I think it's most likely that Clinton will win, and that it won't be close. But I don't think it's 95% likely. People have been overestimating her appeal for years. And underestimating his the whole cycle.


Perhaps it is now lower...according to the bookies who are effectively metadata compilers.
See presidential odds chart: https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html

In summary - In the last week Clinton has gone from 74.4% to 70.2% probability of claiming the presidency whereas Trump has gone from 18.4% to 26.5%

Kris

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1433 on: May 05, 2016, 09:48:29 AM »
Tally up -- who called Trump as the GOP nominee?
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politics/ted-cruz-drops-out/index.html

Well, Scott Adams, the comic who created Dilbert called not only Trump as the GOP nominee, but also continues to say that Trump will win the election in a landslide.

Interestingly, he has publicly documented his predictions along the way in detail.  In a nutshell, his predictions are based on how well Trump plays in the 3rd dimension as a persuasion artist.  Well worth digging through the archives, and keeping up to date with his posts. He believes HRC will be absolutely destroyed.  I have to say, I do buy in to what he is saying....

I enjoyed his recent post "Clinton Versus Trump" http://blog.dilbert.com/post/143789982926/clinton-versus-trump-persuasion-scores

I don't think he'll win in a landslide, but I do think he could win.

It's Hillary's election to lose at this point.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1434 on: May 05, 2016, 10:50:36 AM »

Perhaps it is now lower...according to the bookies who are effectively metadata compilers.
See presidential odds chart: https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html

In summary - In the last week Clinton has gone from 74.4% to 70.2% probability of claiming the presidency whereas Trump has gone from 18.4% to 26.5%

Well - it makes sense that Trump's would shoot up because he's all but locked up the nomination, and the chance of a contested election is pretty fleeting at this point.  Not as sure why Clinton has dropped 4.2%.  I also don't know what the remaining 3.3% is... the likelihood Sanders will emerge as President? maybe a 3rd party? The chance that both candidates will drop dead before November?

Northwestie

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1435 on: May 05, 2016, 10:54:41 AM »

The general hasn't really started. This is far from settled. Trump has a really decent chance at being elected.

You can quote me in November - no figgin' way.

GuitarStv

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1436 on: May 05, 2016, 11:30:52 AM »
If Trump does become the President I might go back and rewatch all the Simpsons episodes and see if I can learn anything else from there...

Or, you could also come to Canada :-)



Oh yes, because we haven't had our fair share of whack-jobs and ass-hats in high political offices here in Canada over the years....

I'm not sure that we've had anything on the scale of unpalatable menu choice currently available in the US.  That would be an unfair comparison.

To each their own, I suppose.  I'm guessing from your name you are in Ottawa.  I'm in Quebec...

Well, yes.  I'm thinking Federal politics.  Obviously there are Ontario/Quebec and big city politics that run rife with examples of dumb-assity.

Dammit!  We're sorry OK?  Toronto officially apologizes!

Jeremy E.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1437 on: May 05, 2016, 11:41:10 AM »
Secret Service Trainer:  Your job is to protect the United States by protecting the President from all possible threats.
Trainee: Wait, which one do you want us to do?
hahaha, that's funny

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1438 on: May 05, 2016, 11:58:59 AM »
If Trump does become the President I might go back and rewatch all the Simpsons episodes and see if I can learn anything else from there...

Or, you could also come to Canada :-)



Oh yes, because we haven't had our fair share of whack-jobs and ass-hats in high political offices here in Canada over the years....

I'm not sure that we've had anything on the scale of unpalatable menu choice currently available in the US.  That would be an unfair comparison.

To each their own, I suppose.  I'm guessing from your name you are in Ottawa.  I'm in Quebec...

Well, yes.  I'm thinking Federal politics.  Obviously there are Ontario/Quebec and big city politics that run rife with examples of dumb-assity.

Dammit!  We're sorry OK?  Toronto officially apologizes!
haha - it's not just limited to one former mayor of Toronto. The xenophobic proposed policies that have been floated around Quebec really don't seem much different to me than some of the language from the latest presidential campaign.

forummm

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1439 on: May 05, 2016, 12:23:01 PM »

The general hasn't really started. This is far from settled. Trump has a really decent chance at being elected.

You can quote me in November - no figgin' way.

OK. Then you'll be willing to lay me 1 million to one odds, right? Hey, it's free money since there's "no" way. I'll put up $10 and you can put up $10 million. ARS can hold it in escrow for us until the election.

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1440 on: May 05, 2016, 12:33:20 PM »
That's where the rubber meets the road--if you think there's very little chance, what odds would you put on it, such that you'd still be willing to place money on it?

Makes it much more likely to have to truly evaluate the chances.

That's an interesting question.
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dycker1978

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1441 on: May 05, 2016, 12:36:42 PM »
As everyone can see, I am Canadian.  I have to say, this is a little scary.  I think Trump has a real chance of winning.

The other choice is looking like it will be Hillary.  That is just about as scary.  Good luck down there...

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1442 on: May 05, 2016, 12:41:03 PM »
As everyone can see, I am Canadian.  I have to say, this is a little scary.  I think Trump has a real chance of winning.

The other choice is looking like it will be Hillary.  That is just about as scary.  Good luck down there...

Would you mind if we just borrowed Trudeau for 4-8 years starting around Jan 20, 2017? Canada seems to have picked a winner. He is pretty much the exact opposite of Trump as a human being.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1443 on: May 05, 2016, 12:44:34 PM »
As everyone can see, I am Canadian.  I have to say, this is a little scary.  I think Trump has a real chance of winning.

The other choice is looking like it will be Hillary.  That is just about as scary.  Good luck down there...
Why do you find Hillary to be "just about as scary" as Trump?

Kris

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1444 on: May 05, 2016, 12:50:34 PM »
That's where the rubber meets the road--if you think there's very little chance, what odds would you put on it, such that you'd still be willing to place money on it?

Makes it much more likely to have to truly evaluate the chances.

That's an interesting question.

True.  Though I'm really bummed that I'm not the betting type, because if I had taken bets that Trump would be the nominee last June when I predicted it (and I was pretty sure), I would be a rich woman right now.  I would definitely have bet a couple thousand dollars, and I probably could have gotten pretty damn good odds.

forummm

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1445 on: May 05, 2016, 12:54:27 PM »
As everyone can see, I am Canadian.  I have to say, this is a little scary.  I think Trump has a real chance of winning.

The other choice is looking like it will be Hillary.  That is just about as scary.  Good luck down there...
Why do you find Hillary to be "just about as scary" as Trump?
I actually think she's worse on some issues. Or could be (since it's hard to know what Trump is actually for). Like military action. She's overly hawkish and wants to be "more muscular" than Obama has been. But I think Trump will be more isolationist in practice and just talk about being strong. And, if he wanted to, Trump could get actual change made to the election financing system. He's said he wants to change it. No way Clinton does anything meaningful there. She's been pretty explicit about that.

But who knows.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1446 on: May 05, 2016, 12:59:03 PM »
She lost to a black guy with a "terrorist sounding" and hard to pronounce name. And she had the biggest political machine powering her. This time she almost lost to a frumpy guy from a tiny state who openly calls himself something that contains the word "socialist" in it who refused to take money from all the places you normally get money. And if his campaign was better organized, I think she would have actually lost to him again. And she has the biggest political machine this time too.
I don't think that's a fair assessment. Obama was one of the most charismatic candidates in a generation and a great orator. People who have never set foot on US soil were following the 2008 election because of him.

Sanders is a one-issue candidate in the right place at the right time.

There are both formidable opponents.

arebelspy

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1447 on: May 05, 2016, 01:03:45 PM »
Obama was one of the most charismatic candidates in a generation and a great orator. People who have never set foot on US soil were following the 2008 election because of him.

Trump must be one of the most charismatic candidates in a generation and a great orator as well, because I've talked with various Europeans about the 2016 election because of him.

;)

(True story though--people following an election isn't always a great thing. :P)
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forummm

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1448 on: May 05, 2016, 01:11:54 PM »
She lost to a black guy with a "terrorist sounding" and hard to pronounce name. And she had the biggest political machine powering her. This time she almost lost to a frumpy guy from a tiny state who openly calls himself something that contains the word "socialist" in it who refused to take money from all the places you normally get money. And if his campaign was better organized, I think she would have actually lost to him again. And she has the biggest political machine this time too.
I don't think that's a fair assessment. Obama was one of the most charismatic candidates in a generation and a great orator. People who have never set foot on US soil were following the 2008 election because of him.

Sanders is a one-issue candidate in the right place at the right time.

There are both formidable opponents.

Sure, they have something that appeals to people. But so does Trump. She's not inevitable.

You could also argue that Trump is single-issue and that it's the right time for that issue. And he draws crowds that are similar in size to those that Obama was getting and Sanders is getting.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 01:13:31 PM by forummm »

Paul der Krake

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1449 on: May 05, 2016, 01:21:07 PM »
Agreed, she's not inevitable, and Trump is nailing the anger issue. Voters are a fickle breed, anything is possible.