Author Topic: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate  (Read 577744 times)

sol

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1100 on: March 09, 2016, 04:36:42 PM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1101 on: March 09, 2016, 05:11:43 PM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Being a government employee is work. Being an elected official... perhaps less so. You don't "have" to do anything at all; it mainly depends on your own initiative and how much you care about getting re-elected.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1102 on: March 09, 2016, 05:28:50 PM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Being a government employee is work. Being an elected official... perhaps less so. You don't "have" to do anything at all; it mainly depends on your own initiative and how much you care about getting re-elected.

This.  Sol, try not to go out of your own way to be offended.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1103 on: March 09, 2016, 06:34:35 PM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Being a government employee is work. Being an elected official... perhaps less so. You don't "have" to do anything at all; it mainly depends on your own initiative and how much you care about getting re-elected.

Whether you agree with their positions or not, elected officials have lots of duties, particularly at the federal level. Could you shank some of those duties?  Sure... but so can the hourly employee at Target or the mid-level manager in a large corporation.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1104 on: March 09, 2016, 09:58:02 PM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Being a government employee is work. Being an elected official... perhaps less so. You don't "have" to do anything at all; it mainly depends on your own initiative and how much you care about getting re-elected.

Whether you agree with their positions or not, elected officials have lots of duties, particularly at the federal level. Could you shank some of those duties?  Sure... but so can the hourly employee at Target or the mid-level manager in a large corporation.

Can Bernie Sanders be fired as a Senator, if he doesn't show up for work?

matchewed

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1105 on: March 10, 2016, 05:52:17 AM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Being a government employee is work. Being an elected official... perhaps less so. You don't "have" to do anything at all; it mainly depends on your own initiative and how much you care about getting re-elected.

Whether you agree with their positions or not, elected officials have lots of duties, particularly at the federal level. Could you shank some of those duties?  Sure... but so can the hourly employee at Target or the mid-level manager in a large corporation.

Can Bernie Sanders be fired as a Senator, if he doesn't show up for work?

Not the point of the comment. You're characterizing elected officials of not having to do work. That's incorrect. So now you want to say "well do they have to show up to work?", the answer is actually irrelevant to what you've been saying.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1106 on: March 10, 2016, 06:10:30 AM »
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Since when is government service not work?  I've worked for the federal government for my entire postgraduate career.  I also pushed a mop in high school.  I assure you the mopping was easier than what I do now.

Being a government employee is work. Being an elected official... perhaps less so. You don't "have" to do anything at all; it mainly depends on your own initiative and how much you care about getting re-elected.

Whether you agree with their positions or not, elected officials have lots of duties, particularly at the federal level. Could you shank some of those duties?  Sure... but so can the hourly employee at Target or the mid-level manager in a large corporation.

Can Bernie Sanders be fired as a Senator, if he doesn't show up for work?
There are several ways that a US Senator can loose their job.  The most common is to loose re-election. Though rare, they can also be impeached for criminal charges.  Voters can also initiate a recall election.  There are parallels with a lot of contract and sub-contract employees here - they are very hard to remove until the contract expires.

Regardless, as matchewed pointed out, you've falsely characterized elected officials as not having to work.

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1107 on: March 10, 2016, 11:55:54 AM »
Actually, what moonshadow said was that Sanders wasn't SMART ENOUGH to hold down a job other than government service. Very different than not having to do work. I for one hope that our senators are the best and smartest, though I know that isn't usually the case. Though I think Sanders is actually quite intelligent.

Gin1984

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1108 on: March 10, 2016, 12:06:22 PM »
Actually, what moonshadow said was that Sanders wasn't SMART ENOUGH to hold down a job other than government service. Very different than not having to do work. I for one hope that our senators are the best and smartest, though I know that isn't usually the case. Though I think Sanders is actually quite intelligent.
No he said
Quote
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

Kris

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1109 on: March 10, 2016, 12:13:58 PM »
Actually, what moonshadow said was that Sanders wasn't SMART ENOUGH to hold down a job other than government service. Very different than not having to do work. I for one hope that our senators are the best and smartest, though I know that isn't usually the case. Though I think Sanders is actually quite intelligent.
No he said
Quote
Who couldn't realistically know what it's like to labor for a wage, because he doesn't even have any context, even at 70.  My 14 year old has more actual work experience

And that quote is why it's so hard to take seriously people who seem to just throw out any insult that suits them, whether there is any evidence it is true or not.  If I don't like someone, or someone's politics, I don't just make up things about them to make them look worse.  If I didn't like Ted Cruz, I wouldn't say that he is a closeted homosexual with an S and M fetish because I want him to look like a moral degenerate. 


zoltani

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1110 on: March 10, 2016, 12:25:29 PM »
No he said:


This is the core of it.  The wealthy are usually rich for a reason, and it's not because they are just stupid & lucky.  Usually.  This is also the same reason I don't consider plans like Bernie's to be credible.  That man isn't even smart enough to make a living outside of government service, and you will never beat the wealthy at money coming at them straight on.

[MOD EDIT: Saying that people are stupid who work in gov't violates Forum Rules.  Please attack arguments, not people.]

hoping2retire35

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1111 on: March 10, 2016, 12:57:55 PM »
Moon shadow used "government service" which could mean politician or high school teacher, however by his implication I believe he meant only politician, at least that is what I have taken from rereading the conversations.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1112 on: March 10, 2016, 02:05:16 PM »
Moon shadow used "government service" which could mean politician or high school teacher, however by his implication I believe he meant only politician, at least that is what I have taken from rereading the conversations.

To be clear, I was referring directly to the fact that Bernie Sanders is a lifelong politician, yes.

zoltani

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1113 on: March 10, 2016, 02:13:37 PM »
That automatically makes him "not smart enough"? I am really confused.

LeRainDrop

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1114 on: March 10, 2016, 02:27:16 PM »
Moon shadow used "government service" which could mean politician or high school teacher, however by his implication I believe he meant only politician, at least that is what I have taken from rereading the conversations.

To be clear, I was referring directly to the fact that Bernie Sanders is a lifelong politician, yes.

Well, he did dabble in some private sector work before moving into politics:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders#Private_careers

TRBeck

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1115 on: March 10, 2016, 02:38:53 PM »
Moon shadow used "government service" which could mean politician or high school teacher, however by his implication I believe he meant only politician, at least that is what I have taken from rereading the conversations.

To be clear, I was referring directly to the fact that Bernie Sanders is a lifelong politician, yes.
Sanders became an elected official in 1981. He is 70. There were some years before he was first elected mayor. During this time he worked as a carpenter, psychiatric aide, teacher, and filmmaker. 30 seconds of Googling told me this.

I'm sure you'll explain that away to hold to your thesis that Sanders doesn't understand work (as if being mayor of a small city is just like being a Kardashian, or being a U.S. Senator largely involves doing the backstroke at a Caribbean resort).

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1116 on: March 10, 2016, 03:31:09 PM »
Moon shadow used "government service" which could mean politician or high school teacher, however by his implication I believe he meant only politician, at least that is what I have taken from rereading the conversations.

To be clear, I was referring directly to the fact that Bernie Sanders is a lifelong politician, yes.
Sanders became an elected official in 1981. He is 70. There were some years before he was first elected mayor. During this time he worked as a carpenter, psychiatric aide, teacher, and filmmaker. 30 seconds of Googling told me this.


I stand corrected.  Perhaps you shouldn't listen to random people on the internet.

LeRainDrop

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1117 on: March 10, 2016, 03:54:15 PM »
Moon shadow used "government service" which could mean politician or high school teacher, however by his implication I believe he meant only politician, at least that is what I have taken from rereading the conversations.

To be clear, I was referring directly to the fact that Bernie Sanders is a lifelong politician, yes.
Sanders became an elected official in 1981. He is 70. There were some years before he was first elected mayor. During this time he worked as a carpenter, psychiatric aide, teacher, and filmmaker. 30 seconds of Googling told me this.


I stand corrected.  Perhaps you shouldn't listen to random people on the internet.

Don't feel too bad, MoonShadow.  TRBeck needed to use google to figure that out, rather than just reading the next two sentences after your statement in this very thread.  (To be clear, this my attempt at light-hearted humor with both of you!)

Well, he did dabble in some private sector work before moving into politics:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders#Private_careers

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1118 on: March 10, 2016, 04:19:49 PM »
https://www.facebook.com/endfederalreserve/videos/681625301939928/?fref=nf

A wonderfully produced propaganda piece. This is part of what Scott Adams has called Trump's "Third Act" problem, the reformation of his public image from just a blowhard to something closer to the 'reasonable middle' of political discourse.  What insiders might call running to the middle.  What makes this bit most interesting to me isn't that it's well done, but that the Trump campaign doesn't seem to have had anything to do with it.

Malaysia41

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1119 on: March 10, 2016, 05:48:45 PM »
Moon shadow used "government service" which could mean politician or high school teacher, however by his implication I believe he meant only politician, at least that is what I have taken from rereading the conversations.

To be clear, I was referring directly to the fact that Bernie Sanders is a lifelong politician, yes.
Sanders became an elected official in 1981. He is 70. There were some years before he was first elected mayor. During this time he worked as a carpenter, psychiatric aide, teacher, and filmmaker. 30 seconds of Googling told me this.


I stand corrected.  Perhaps you shouldn't listen to random people on the internet.

True!  Recently there's been a lot of banter on reddit about how Sanders only sponsored 3 bills during his entire career in Congress. Searching "bernie sanders record in congress" led me to opensecrets.org where I discovered that in 2015-2016 alone, he sponsored 26 bills, and cosponsored 154.  FFS.

Now, I can't find the reddit disinformation posts. Too bad - I wanted to counter that bullshit.  IIRC, the claim was he'd been 'chief' sponsor on only 3 bills. So they used a weasel modifier to make that claim.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsor_(legislative) has not a single instance of 'chief' - so by using that modifer the author of that statement is introducing some subjective standard that can't be argued with?

When people forward bullshit, it's a real bummer. The bad thing is it's so pervasive that it can be nearly impossible to cut through it all. Luckily you can be on the look out for weasel modifiers to tip you off. It's not a cure-all, just one tool. Jeez - it's so much work.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2016, 05:50:45 PM by Malaysia41 »

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1120 on: March 10, 2016, 07:55:38 PM »
True!  Recently there's been a lot of banter on reddit about how Sanders only sponsored 3 bills during his entire career in Congress. Searching "bernie sanders record in congress" led me to opensecrets.org where I discovered that in 2015-2016 alone, he sponsored 26 bills, and cosponsored 154.  FFS.

Some people even call him "the amendment king". He doesn't necessarily write many bills from scratch, but that's because he's busy making everybody else's bills better.

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1121 on: March 11, 2016, 07:53:34 AM »
Quote
I think as a country we're flying along ok.  We could be doing better, but we aren't destined for a crash either.  Most macro-economic indicators look decent, and really good compared to much of the world. 
I'm receptive to change, but not one lead by the xenophobic meanderings of Trump.

I'm betting that you are going to get the chance to find out if your fear of a Trump presidency is justified, and that Mrs. Its-My-Turn isn't going to get her turn to fly the plane.

My dislike of Trump isn't based on what he might do, but the things he has already said and done.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1122 on: March 11, 2016, 11:41:32 AM »

I think as a country we're flying along ok.  We could be doing better, but we aren't destined for a crash either.  Most macro-economic indicators look decent, and really good compared to much of the world. 
I'm receptive to change, but not one lead by the xenophobic meanderings of Trump.

I'm betting that you are going to get the chance to find out if your fear of a Trump presidency is justified, and that Mrs. Its-My-Turn isn't going to get her turn to fly the plane.

My dislike of Trump isn't based on what he might do, but the things he has already said and done.

Like him or not, matters not.  I don't like any of them, but Trump's skill at manipulating the media & public opinion is legion. 
« Last Edit: March 11, 2016, 11:59:24 AM by MoonShadow »

nereo

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1123 on: March 11, 2016, 11:47:55 AM »
I think as a country we're flying along ok.  We could be doing better, but we aren't destined for a crash either.  Most macro-economic indicators look decent, and really good compared to much of the world. 
I'm receptive to change, but not one lead by the xenophobic meanderings of Trump.

I'm betting that you are going to get the chance to find out if your fear of a Trump presidency is justified, and that Mrs. Its-My-Turn isn't going to get her turn to fly the plane.

My dislike of Trump isn't based on what he might do, but the things he has already said and done.

Like him or not, matters not.  I don't like any of them, but Trump's skill at manipulating the media & public opinion is legion.
Well first, it matters for me in deciding whether or not I will vote for someone.  But returning to what you had said earlier, you said I may get the change to find out if my "fear of a Trump presidency is justified".  To be clear this isn't about the future and what might happen, but in the present and recent past with what has happened.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2016, 01:38:04 PM by nereo »

MoonShadow

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MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1125 on: March 14, 2016, 03:13:16 PM »

Gin1984

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1126 on: March 14, 2016, 05:39:05 PM »
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/13/what-that-trump-security-moment-does-to-a-campaign/

The odds of an assassination attempt seem to be on the rise.
That was one of the most idiotic things I have read and he is no journalist.  He is a blogger with a huge bias.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1127 on: March 14, 2016, 05:45:39 PM »
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/13/what-that-trump-security-moment-does-to-a-campaign/

The odds of an assassination attempt seem to be on the rise.
That was one of the most idiotic things I have read and he is no journalist.  He is a blogger with a huge bias.

Wow!  You actually read it!  Progress.

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1128 on: March 14, 2016, 09:27:15 PM »
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/13/what-that-trump-security-moment-does-to-a-campaign/

The odds of an assassination attempt seem to be on the rise.
That was one of the most idiotic things I have read and he is no journalist.  He is a blogger with a huge bias.

Wow!  You actually read it!  Progress.

The thesis that violence against Trump is becoming more likely is sound. However, blaming it on "the media" instead of Trump's own totalitarian asshattery is utterly absurd.

LeRainDrop

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1129 on: March 14, 2016, 09:43:00 PM »
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/13/what-that-trump-security-moment-does-to-a-campaign/

The odds of an assassination attempt seem to be on the rise.
That was one of the most idiotic things I have read and he is no journalist.  He is a blogger with a huge bias.

Wow!  You actually read it!  Progress.

The thesis that violence against Trump is becoming more likely is sound. However, blaming it on "the media" instead of Trump's own totalitarian asshattery is utterly absurd.

I think it's fair to say that there are multiple contributing factors, and he sure isn't helping himself on that front.  The acrimony is just building and building...

infogoon

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1130 on: March 15, 2016, 09:18:36 AM »
Trump might want to read to the end of that Huey Long biography he seems to be basing his campaign on and see how it all worked out for him.

LeRainDrop

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1131 on: March 15, 2016, 08:52:31 PM »
Well, another one bites the dust -- Rubio has suspended his campaign.

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1132 on: March 15, 2016, 09:19:09 PM »
Well, Trump won Florida & lost Ohio to Kasich, and with Rubio dropping out, this puts up an interesting dynamic.  If Cruz & Kasich could make a deal for a ticket, they might just manage to keep Trump from taking 1237 delegates and nab the nomination in a brokered convention.  There are two problems with that plan; Kasich hates Cruz, and even if they could get past that; if they "steal" the nomination from Trump in a brokered convention, Trump is just as likely to use that as propaganda while running as an independent candidate.  Alternatively, Trump could accept Kasich as his running mate as a compromise for the establishment (Kasich is definitely establishment) much like Reagan accepted Bush Senior as his running mate even though he really didn't like the guy.  While this presents multiple paths in the near term, I can't see that this changes Trumps' ballistic trajectory in any meaningful way.  He can still take the presidency if he wants it that badly.

sol

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1133 on: March 15, 2016, 10:01:11 PM »
I can't see that this changes Trumps' ballistic trajectory in any meaningful way.  He can still take the presidency if he wants it that badly.

What universe do you live in?  There is no way Trump is becoming President, and I've said so numerous times on this forum for the past few months.  America is better than that.

What electoral map are you looking at that gives Trump any possible path to the Presidency?  Have you read any of the general election polling?  If the election were held today, Trump would lose to any Democratic nominee, and it's been that way for months and months, and I suspect it will stay that way for many more months.  Donald Trump is a gift to progressives, a guaranteed GOP destroyer.  I mourn the death of the Party of Lincoln.

Here's the summation of recent polling:
Trump vs Clinton, Clinton wins by 6 (and recently rising).
Trump vs Sanders, Sanders wins by 10 (and recently rising).

Florida currently leans towards Clinton in a hypothetical matchup, after previously leaning Trump.  But Clinton is leading comfortably in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, and if she takes both of those she can still lose Florida and everything else that's close and still win.  Trump's electoral map is a disaster.

Could things change between now and election day?  Of course.  Someone could shoot one of them.  Both of them could go to jail, setting up my fantasy election of Sanders vs Cruz for an ideological wrestlemania smackdown from opposite extremes.  But if things unfold in a predictable manner, Trump will get the nomination and then lose the general election badly. 

Please explain to me why you keep saying things like "ballistic trajectory" and "his for the taking" because I just don't see it.  Americans are stupid, but we're not that stupid.

edit:  I went looking through the polling data to find any hypothetical matchups that the Republicans would currently win in a general election. Out of all possible combinations of current candidates, the only way the Democrats lose the whitehouse today is if Kasich runs against Clinton, and maybe if Cruz runs against Clinton.  Sanders beats everyone handily in a nationwide election.  Trump loses handily to everyone in a nationwide election. 

« Last Edit: March 15, 2016, 10:08:57 PM by sol »

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1134 on: March 15, 2016, 10:52:07 PM »
I can't see that this changes Trumps' ballistic trajectory in any meaningful way.  He can still take the presidency if he wants it that badly.

What universe do you live in?  There is no way Trump is becoming President, and I've said so numerous times on this forum for the past few months.  America is better than that.

<snip>

Please explain to me why you keep saying things like "ballistic trajectory" and "his for the taking" because I just don't see it. Americans are stupid, but we're not that stupid.
 

Care to make a wager?  Because from my perspectives, betting in favor of American stupidity is almost always a wager in my own favor. 

Full disclosure, political predictions have long been a personal pastime for me.  I do it like other people do sports betting.  In the past 25 years & about one hundred wagers, I have lost exactly once on a national race I was willing to put a wager upon.  I'm good at this, and used to do it on online prediction markets at a profit (Bush shut them down, bastard); and I also have the particular advantage that I have zero emotional investment in the outcome, because as a libertarian I always vote for the person I most agree with, who has never been whom I thought had any realistic chance of victory. 

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1135 on: March 15, 2016, 11:22:48 PM »
I can't see that this changes Trumps' ballistic trajectory in any meaningful way.  He can still take the presidency if he wants it that badly.

What universe do you live in?  There is no way Trump is becoming President, and I've said so numerous times on this forum for the past few months.  America is better than that.

What electoral map are you looking at that gives Trump any possible path to the Presidency?  Have you read any of the general election polling?  If the election were held today, Trump would lose to any Democratic nominee, and it's been that way for months and months, and I suspect it will stay that way for many more months.  Donald Trump is a gift to progressives, a guaranteed GOP destroyer.  I mourn the death of the Party of Lincoln.

Here's the summation of recent polling:
Trump vs Clinton, Clinton wins by 6 (and recently rising).
Trump vs Sanders, Sanders wins by 10 (and recently rising).

Florida currently leans towards Clinton in a hypothetical matchup, after previously leaning Trump.  But Clinton is leading comfortably in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, and if she takes both of those she can still lose Florida and everything else that's close and still win.  Trump's electoral map is a disaster.

Could things change between now and election day?  Of course.  Someone could shoot one of them.  Both of them could go to jail, setting up my fantasy election of Sanders vs Cruz for an ideological wrestlemania smackdown from opposite extremes.  But if things unfold in a predictable manner, Trump will get the nomination and then lose the general election badly. 

Please explain to me why you keep saying things like "ballistic trajectory" and "his for the taking" because I just don't see it.  Americans are stupid, but we're not that stupid.

edit:  I went looking through the polling data to find any hypothetical matchups that the Republicans would currently win in a general election. Out of all possible combinations of current candidates, the only way the Democrats lose the whitehouse today is if Kasich runs against Clinton, and maybe if Cruz runs against Clinton.  Sanders beats everyone handily in a nationwide election.  Trump loses handily to everyone in a nationwide election.

Well said this sums up my thoughts

brett2k07

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1136 on: March 16, 2016, 06:10:47 AM »
I can't see that this changes Trumps' ballistic trajectory in any meaningful way.  He can still take the presidency if he wants it that badly.

What universe do you live in?  There is no way Trump is becoming President, and I've said so numerous times on this forum for the past few months.  America is better than that.

<snip>

Please explain to me why you keep saying things like "ballistic trajectory" and "his for the taking" because I just don't see it. Americans are stupid, but we're not that stupid.
 

Care to make a wager?  Because from my perspectives, betting in favor of American stupidity is almost always a wager in my own favor. 

Full disclosure, political predictions have long been a personal pastime for me.  I do it like other people do sports betting.  In the past 25 years & about one hundred wagers, I have lost exactly once on a national race I was willing to put a wager upon.  I'm good at this, and used to do it on online prediction markets at a profit (Bush shut them down, bastard); and I also have the particular advantage that I have zero emotional investment in the outcome, because as a libertarian I always vote for the person I most agree with, who has never been whom I thought had any realistic chance of victory.

You're betting on the underdog if you bet on Trump. He loses to Clinton by an average of 10 points in general election polling.

There's data to suggest Trump is splitting the Republican party as well. Fox News exit polling is saying that 40% of Republican voters would consider a third party if he gets the nomination. ABC and NBC exit polls were showing similar results at 37%. Additionally, Fox News exit polls are reporting that 60% of non-Trump voters would not back him in November if he gets the nomination, and ABC and NBC exit polls were reporting similar results at 40%. Those are huge hurdles considering he has to overcome a 10 point deficit against Hillary and a 13 point deficit against Sanders. Losing 38% of the Republican party vote to a third party is not a path to the White House. Not by a long shot.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2016, 06:12:23 AM by brett2k07 »

hoping2retire35

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1137 on: March 16, 2016, 06:55:25 AM »
check out politico, (their interactive map thing is pretty fast and niffty), Ohio, reps get 2 mil primary votes, and dems barely break 1 mil. a much larger spread than even florida(reps get over 2 mil and dems get 1.6 mil) which is considered more of swing state. analysis; republican will win this fall.

reaffirms mine and ars' prediction trump takes nomination and general.

discuss

dramaman

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1138 on: March 16, 2016, 06:57:41 AM »
check out politico, (their interactive map thing is pretty fast and niffty), Ohio, reps get 2 mil primary votes, and dems barely break 1 mil. a much larger spread than even florida(reps get over 2 mil and dems get 1.6 mil) which is considered more of swing state. analysis; republican will win this fall.

reaffirms mine and ars' prediction trump takes nomination and general.

discuss

Primary numbers don't necessarily extrapolate to the general election. I guarantee you if Trump is running in November you will get record turnout from both parties.

Kris

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1139 on: March 16, 2016, 06:58:43 AM »
check out politico, (their interactive map thing is pretty fast and niffty), Ohio, reps get 2 mil primary votes, and dems barely break 1 mil. a much larger spread than even florida(reps get over 2 mil and dems get 1.6 mil) which is considered more of swing state. analysis; republican will win this fall.

reaffirms mine and ars' prediction trump takes nomination and general.

discuss

Link?

(For the record, I am inclined to agree about Trump taking the general. Ugh.)

brett2k07

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1140 on: March 16, 2016, 07:56:37 AM »
check out politico, (their interactive map thing is pretty fast and niffty), Ohio, reps get 2 mil primary votes, and dems barely break 1 mil. a much larger spread than even florida(reps get over 2 mil and dems get 1.6 mil) which is considered more of swing state. analysis; republican will win this fall.

reaffirms mine and ars' prediction trump takes nomination and general.

discuss

That's assuming of course that all of those Republican voters turn out for Trump again in the general. There's exit polling data that suggests an average of 38% of voters will look to a third party if Trump gets the nomination. If those 38% follow through, that takes 760,000 votes away from Trump in Ohio and the race gets much more interesting.

Another key metric to consider is the registered Independent voters. Florida is one of many states that host a closed primary which means those individuals registered as independents were not able to vote in the primary elections for any Republican or Democratic candidate. According to The Tampa Bay Times, there are 3.2 million voters registered as Independents in Florida. Those people will get to vote in November.

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1141 on: March 16, 2016, 09:27:40 AM »
check out politico, (their interactive map thing is pretty fast and niffty), Ohio, reps get 2 mil primary votes, and dems barely break 1 mil. a much larger spread than even florida(reps get over 2 mil and dems get 1.6 mil) which is considered more of swing state. analysis; republican will win this fall.

reaffirms mine and ars' prediction trump takes nomination and general.

discuss

The total turnout in a primary election has nothing to do with that party's overall popularity in the state.

Take 2012, for instance: Democrat turnout was surely incredibly low (which I claim without even checking) because with only one candidate on the ballot, why bother showing up?

Similarly, Democrat primary turnout could be low this year because lots of people who will vote Democrat in the general don't really care whether it's Sanders or Clinton on the ballot. Maybe they just stay home, or maybe they grab a Republican ballot (in states with open primaries) to vote against Trump.

sol

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1142 on: March 16, 2016, 10:25:45 AM »
check out politico, (their interactive map thing is pretty fast and niffty), Ohio, reps get 2 mil primary votes, and dems barely break 1 mil. a much larger spread than even florida(reps get over 2 mil and dems get 1.6 mil) which is considered more of swing state. analysis; republican will win this fall.

reaffirms mine and ars' prediction trump takes nomination and general.

discuss

If you were to look at the actual polling on those states, which reflects general election voter sentiment, instead of primary turnout, which does not, you would quickly see that trump loses those states by a wide margin in a general election matchup even while holding a plurality (but not a majority) among GOP primary voters.  I don't think I even have to explain why that is, but feel free to ask if it's not clear to you.

sol

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1143 on: March 16, 2016, 10:40:11 AM »
In fact, looking at the current polling suggests that Clinton is praying that Trump gets the nomination.  He's the only republican she is guaranteed to beat in a general election, and thus him being the nominee is her surest path to the presidency.

If Cruz or Kasich gets the nomination, Sanders would be the sure winner but Clinton probably loses.  This means that Clinton supporters should be rooting for Trump, and Cruz or Kasich supporters should be rooting for Clinton.  Trump supporters are hopeless and will probably just split the republican vote, helping a democrat into the white house.

Sanders supporters are probably feeling frustrated that their candidate is getting so few delegates despite absolutely crushing all general election matchups.  It looks like America is ready for a slightly more lefty president, but right now it looks like they're probably going to get another hawkish centrist corporatist (Clinton) instead.  I still think it's a small step in the right direction for America (away from the disastrous Bush years), if not the larger step the electorate seems to want.

protostache

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1144 on: March 16, 2016, 10:55:21 AM »
I dunno, Sol. This year has been so off the charts zany that I don't know if polling is accurately reflecting who people will actually for in November. Lots of people seem to be embarrassed to say they'll vote for Trump and then they do anyway.

Kris

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1145 on: March 16, 2016, 11:10:02 AM »
check out politico, (their interactive map thing is pretty fast and niffty), Ohio, reps get 2 mil primary votes, and dems barely break 1 mil. a much larger spread than even florida(reps get over 2 mil and dems get 1.6 mil) which is considered more of swing state. analysis; republican will win this fall.

reaffirms mine and ars' prediction trump takes nomination and general.

discuss

If you were to look at the actual polling on those states, which reflects general election voter sentiment, instead of primary turnout, which does not, you would quickly see that trump loses those states by a wide margin in a general election matchup even while holding a plurality (but not a majority) among GOP primary voters.  I don't think I even have to explain why that is, but feel free to ask if it's not clear to you.

This is true... now.

But Trump has been playing a whole lot of people like a fiddle for a while now. And unfortunately, the right has not cornered the market on gullible, uninformed voters.  My fear is that the Democratic establishment, including Clinton, is seriously undrrestimating Trump's ability to pivot at any moment and say just the thing to suck in a few more people. Then a few more. Then a few more.

I hope I'm wrong. But all of the people who scoff that Trump couldn't possibly win are making me think just the opposite.

Jack

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1146 on: March 16, 2016, 11:20:49 AM »
Sanders supporters are probably feeling frustrated that their candidate is getting so few delegates despite absolutely crushing all general election matchups.  It looks like America is ready for a slightly more lefty president, but right now it looks like they're probably going to get another hawkish centrist corporatist (Clinton) instead.

That's putting it mildly, especially when the best argument for Hillary since the very start of the election season has been the theory that she was more "electable!"

sol

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1147 on: March 16, 2016, 11:44:54 AM »
But Trump has been playing a whole lot of people like a fiddle for a while now.

Trump has been sucking up the pieces of the republican party because the party is a broken shell of its former self.  He's chipping away at better candidates because the party is fractured and disillusioned and despondent, not because people like him or agree with his racism or his sexism or his general level of assholery.

Republicans have to harken back 30 years to find a party standard bearer they can actually rally behind, and even that is largely based on nostalgia for a bygone era of racist, classist, homophobic, warmongering white patriotism.  The Bush coalition is long since dead, the big tent collapsed and in tatters.  The American electorate is more diverse, younger, more female, and more progressive than it has ever been.  America is changing, and some angry old white dudes rallying behind another angry old white dude promising to restore the glory days of old white dudes controlling everything, however appealing that may be to them, simply doesn't represent our modern electorate.  All the polls say so.

I stand by my assertion that trump has destroyed the party.  He'll lose in the general, and then 12+ years of Democratic presidents will make room for a GOP revival with a more inclusive candidate sometime in the future.  First they have to get their heads out their collective assess, and this cycle is apparently not the time to do it.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2016, 02:47:41 PM by sol »

MoonShadow

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1148 on: March 16, 2016, 11:59:16 AM »

I stand by my assertion that trump has destroyed the party. He'll lose in the general, and then 12+ years of Democratic presidents will make room for a GOP revival with a more inclusive candidate sometime in the future.  First they have to get their heads out their collective assess, and this cycle is apparently not the time to do it.

You do seem confident, Sol.  Are you ready to make this wager official?

golden1

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Re: Legitimate criticisms of each 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #1149 on: March 16, 2016, 12:17:51 PM »
I am really hoping that Sol is correct, and that is my take on it as well.  Drumpf is filling a leadership void.  He is picking up 40ish percent of the Republican vote, and while I can see many of the Republicans reluctantly voting for him (but not all), I don't see independents choosing Trumpf over Hillary.  PLus Democrats and possibly independents will be very motivated to vote AGAINST Trump.  I am struggling to imagine a scenario where he could frame an argument that appeals to independents. 

But.  I also thought he would never make it past New Hampshire, and so did a lot of people.  And you can never underestimate the drive to win, no matter what the cost.  I think one of the biggest drivers of Trumps appeal is humiliation, lack of power, and loss of status of the white electorate.  This is really a life or death scenario to these people, and people who feel backed into a corner are very, very dangerous. 

I honestly hope that the GOP has a brokered convention and stops him somehow, anyhow.  He is too dangerous to hold this office, he really is.  And I am afraid that the base of the GOP may not care.  They may be okay with tearing down the country before allowing it to become something they don't recognize.