It is
becoming clearer that Israel will have an all-out war with Hezbollah.
Like the U.S. after 9/11, the leadership views the 10/7 terror attack as a fleeting opportunity to change the geopolitical landscape and reverse certain worsening military trends, all while catching their enemies off guard. A seizure of land and ethnic cleansing of southern Lebanon are not off the table.
To extend the 9/11 metaphor further, it was reports of successes in Afghanistan circa 2002 that led the U.S. to invade Iraq in 2003. Israel is on the same timeline, moving from Gaza in 2024 to Lebanon in 2025. These bombings and assassinations are softening up the enemy and closing out intelligence leads ahead of an invasion.
Demolition of the PA in the West Bank could also occur, returning Israel to the status quo which existed before the
Oslo Accords of the 1990s - an arrangement right-wing Israelis have never been comfortable with.
Biden and Harris can't do anything about it right now, without affecting the election. Trump would probably cheer the war along. However a first-term President Harris would face tough choices about setting politically unpopular boundaries and red lines for the withdraw of US support.
The cost of U.S. complicity is that other regional actors will ramp up support for anti-Israeli forces. Decades of U.S. diplomatic effort could go down the toilet as Russia supports a new anti-Israeli axis with Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Persian Gulf countries - possibly even drawing in NATO member Turkyie'. European NATO countries, faced with the risk of an oil embargo, pull back support for Israel, creating fractures with the U.S.
Imagine the Turks blocking all action or progress in NATO until the U.S. cuts off aid to Israel. Imagine the Egyptians blocking cargo through the Suez that is destined for any country on a list of supporters of Israel. Imagine Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Djibouti and/or the Saudis expelling all U.S. forces.
Israel's wars could be a bloodbath for U.S. interests, in addition to killing millions of people throughout the region. Basically, the Arabs control the oil and supply lines that NATO needs to keep Russia at bay. How many NATO members would sanction Israel if that was at stake.
TL;DR: consider buying gasoline futures