The Money Mustache Community
Other => Off Topic => Topic started by: Cannot Wait! on February 07, 2025, 03:17:34 PM
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This craziness feels different than previous world events. When SHOULD one pull out of the stock market? It feels like things could blow up really fast...
How confident are people here feeling about riding this wave specifically in terms of the stock market not crashing?
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I am never planning on pulling out of the stock market.
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Where would you put your money that you anticipate it would be safe from the global impact of the US economy collapsing AND never recovering?
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I'm thinking of buying land to homestead on.
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While I understand your concern, think about the billionaires currently helming US government. What happens to their fortunes in a crash? Not to say a crash won't happen, but a permanent crash does not seem to be in the interests of ALL the billionaires, at least the sane ones.
I don't really have any other option than to stay the course. And I do have the cautionary tale of Trump's 1st term, when I knew several people who exited the market. We all know how that worked out.
Historically, most major stock market returns come after a crash. Like, immediately after -- which you can't time.
The answer has to be diversification, not just monetary but in other prepping. I already de-internationalized my investments in the last few years so I can't fix that LOL. I don't have a large cash position. I also can think of ways to make money by working/selling stuff, if push comes to shove. Keep your expenses low.
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I'm thinking of buying land to homestead on.
To me it doesn't make much sense to pull your money out of the market and put it into land in a country that's burning to the ground around you.
If the US market collapses without recovery, having a piece of paper that says you own land probably isn't going to mean much.
If enough social order exists for land ownership to be real, then even if the markets do crash, they'll likely recover, because a group of 300M people who are organized and civilized enough to respect land titles is going to be a profitable market to do business in.
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Keep calm & index on
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Where would you put your money that you anticipate it would be safe from the global impact of the US economy collapsing AND never recovering?
This.
I don't have much faith in people, humanity, or the government. But I *do* have faith that people will tend to repeat patterns of behavior, and my life experience tells me that there are a *lot* of people who are very self interested.
People will talk crazy talk on Facebook, or on the news, but the moment they have to pay triple for their food or a PS5 or something and realize that the health of society is in their *own* best interest, things will calm down.
I'm prepared for a variety of scenarios to play our, but I'm personally not that worried.
When the stock market was collapsing in 2020, I wasn't worried at all about the stock market. I was worried about COVID and how it would impact me, my family, siblings, etc.
People tend to come to their senses when they start to get personally impacted by things.
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We spent some time reconsidering our risk tolerance. Decided it's still pretty high for now based on our personal circumstances (still accumulating). We pulled about $40k out of the market in December to put toward a down payment fund, since we expect to need that within the next few years, and even that was only because we had some 0% capital gains space and $40k taxable in a fund we didn't like.
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Where would you put your money that you anticipate it would be safe from the global impact of the US economy collapsing AND never recovering?
This.
I don't have much faith in people, humanity, or the government. But I *do* have faith that people will tend to repeat patterns of behavior, and my life experience tells me that there are a *lot* of people who are very self interested.
People will talk crazy talk on Facebook, or on the news, but the moment they have to pay triple for their food or a PS5 or something and realize that the health of society is in their *own* best interest, things will calm down.
I'm prepared for a variety of scenarios to play our, but I'm personally not that worried.
When the stock market was collapsing in 2020, I wasn't worried at all about the stock market. I was worried about COVID and how it would impact me, my family, siblings, etc.
People tend to come to their senses when they start to get personally impacted by things.
I'm hopeful that most of the stuff is just Trump being insane. There will be tax cuts, awful social policies, and the ending of some government programs but not the collapse and non-recovery of the US economy. Basic neo-con stuff but more racist. At this point that's probably the best outcome, which sucks.
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Not timing the market, but I did rebalance, and in that process I downgraded my US exposure and spread my global exposure a lot more. The big capital will flow somewhere if the US has a crash.
Given that the US has decided my country - a longtime ally - is now an enemy because of STUPID reasons, I see no reasons to support the US economy with my investment capital any longer.
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Well, what if you he stock market does crash? What if it never recovers? I feel like my investment account will be the least of my worries.
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Right; things that are so bad, that you wouldn't be waiting around for your 401k statement or bank branch for, aren't really things to try to hedge in your investing. They require different preparation, if that' what you believe.
See: "How Do You Invest in the Face of an Apocalypse?" (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/business/dealbook/russia-ukraine-nuclear-war-invest.html)
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What event are we talking about? I bought several thousand dollars worth of VTSAX this week. Same as every month on the 5th. Was I supposed to jam it in my mattress out of fear? Maybe, but I have no fear, so that’s not happening.
I have bought US stocks every month since the mid-90s, through all sorts of doom and gloom.
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Well, what if you he stock market does crash? What if it never recovers? I feel like my investment account will be the least of my worries.
That's exactly it.
Say you somehow manage to predict exactly the right sequence of investment moves to preserve the max value of your wealth...
Um...how are you going to manage the massive civil unrest that comes with a situation where the US is no longer a major economic force internationally???
300 million people is A LOT of market, whether democracy survives of not.
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Clearly, this time THE TOP IS IN. Thorstach was right all along.
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I'm changing nothing. But people also jump to the extremes and that's not always right either. The US hasn't always been on top, not by half as such a young country, and won't always be. The risk of being invested at peak US and seeing it slide to a middling or lower quartile economy over a 50 year retirement is not zero. That wouldn't be blood in the streets. It'd be like Argentina, Netherlands, Britain, and other world leaders who were displaced and fallen to the middle or much below over a century. If US SWR is 4% and the same authors put forth a low 3% worldwide withdrawal rate after removing Germany/Italy/Japan WW2 era, what would we guess at a WR for a global economic superpower sliding into mediocrity?
Again, I'm changing nothing because I don't think that will happen nor do I think the short term economic impacts will be too terrible. The most I'd suggest is OP may be realizing their long term risk tolerance is not as high as they think it is or they should go on a low information diet for a while. A probability distribution with a reasonable chance of predicting the future probably includes this nonsense dropping returns for the next decade by a couple percent, maybe even a few -20% years. That will happen during your retirement no matter what so either be prepared or not. It probably doesn't include the US dropping rapidly and you being able to act on that information in a strongly beneficial way.
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I correctly timed the COVID stock drop. I sold a bunch of stuff and moved it to low risk stuff in Feb 2020 on the highest day before it crashed.
I did not foresee it rebounding 2-3 months later and I ended up missing buying back in.
Take what you want from that. There will be a next drop. Will it be brief? Will it be sustained? What will you do if you're wrong? How will you react later if you're right?
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I correctly timed the COVID stock drop. I sold a bunch of stuff and moved it to low risk stuff in Feb 2020 on the highest day before it crashed.
I did not foresee it rebounding 2-3 months later and I ended up missing buying back in.
Take what you want from that. There will be a next drop. Will it be brief? Will it be sustained? What will you do if you're wrong? How will you react later if you're right?
That's another key part of why it's a fool's game. You have to guess right. Twice. In a row. Or, you still lose.
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I correctly timed the COVID stock drop. I sold a bunch of stuff and moved it to low risk stuff in Feb 2020 on the highest day before it crashed.
I did not foresee it rebounding 2-3 months later and I ended up missing buying back in.
Take what you want from that. There will be a next drop. Will it be brief? Will it be sustained? What will you do if you're wrong? How will you react later if you're right?
That's another key part of why it's a fool's game. You have to guess right. Twice. In a row. Or, you still lose.
During Covid, the overall market didn't crash as far as some stocks (restaurants, airlines, hotels, retail, ...). At the bottom, I bought into those beaten up stocks, and held until they recovered. By using "recovery" as my sell point, I removed the guesswork from timing the sale. I documented it in a journal on this forum.
Warren Buffet ranks among the best investors, and unlike most hedge fund managers, his investments were all publicly visible. Berkshire Hathaway is the largest company outside big tech in the public U.S. markets. He advises people to index, to buy the S&P 500 and hold. It is worth noting, however, that he's sitting on the largest cash pile in Berkshire's history. I imagine he'll go on a shopping spree if we have a crash.
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This craziness feels different than previous world events. When SHOULD one pull out of the stock market? It feels like things could blow up really fast...
How confident are people here feeling about riding this wave specifically in terms of the stock market not crashing?
Pull out, right before you feel like you're going to.........oh wait......
Ignore the noise, things might get worse before they get better, but there's nothing different about today than any other point in time when things felt like they were going to fall apart.....which is quite often, we just tend to forget quickly.
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This craziness feels different than previous world events. When SHOULD one pull out of the stock market? It feels like things could blow up really fast...
How confident are people here feeling about riding this wave specifically in terms of the stock market not crashing?
Pull out, right before you feel like you're going to.........oh wait......
snort
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This craziness feels different than previous world events. When SHOULD one pull out of the stock market? It feels like things could blow up really fast...
How confident are people here feeling about riding this wave specifically in terms of the stock market not crashing?
Pull out, right before you feel like you're going to.........oh wait......
snort
This only works if you're on the top.
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While I understand your concern, think about the billionaires currently helming US government. What happens to their fortunes in a crash? Not to say a crash won't happen, but a permanent crash does not seem to be in the interests of ALL the billionaires, at least the sane ones.
This is my thinking, too.
In addition to what others have said about there being no safe option in case of a a U.S. collapse, Trump's administration is run by and for billionaire oligarchs. They may be evil, but they know what is and isn't in their interest.
They're fine with him inflicting misery on the working class, but they don't want a market crash that would decrease their net worth. Notice how swiftly the tariff threats were withdrawn when stocks reacted badly.
If you're a FIREd person living off investments, you have that in common with the oligarch class. Count on them to protect their own fortunes, and hopefully that will protect us too.
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If you're a FIREd person living off investments, you have that in common with the oligarch class. Count on them to protect their own fortunes, and hopefully that will protect us too.
I do feel this conflict, deeply. I am amping up my charitable giving, as my stache grows and grows, and most likely will benefit from whatever tax package comes to pass.
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Keep calm & index on
i love you.
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If you're a FIREd person living off investments, you have that in common with the oligarch class. Count on them to protect their own fortunes, and hopefully that will protect us too.
I do feel this conflict, deeply. I am amping up my charitable giving, as my stache grows and grows, and moat likely will benefit from whatever tax package comes to pass.
Even as a FIRE-minded person you have more in common with the billionaires than you do with the average American. A million dollar portfolio puts you in the top 12th percentile of the country, across all ages. A median American has a liquid net worth of about $65k.
If the current political climate makes you want to dump your portfolio you might want to do some serious emotional training - you're going to have to weather much bigger storms in the future.
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What event are we talking about? I bought several thousand dollars worth of VTSAX this week. Same as every month on the 5th. Was I supposed to jam it in my mattress out of fear? Maybe, but I have no fear, so that’s not happening.
I have bought US stocks every month since the mid-90s, through all sorts of doom and gloom.
+1
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While I understand your concern, think about the billionaires currently helming US government. What happens to their fortunes in a crash? Not to say a crash won't happen, but a permanent crash does not seem to be in the interests of ALL the billionaires, at least the sane ones.
I was thinking about "the billionaires that are currently helming US government" - that's what has me worried. This kind of fuckery is unprecedented. Maybe they could make crypto the new currency and make the stock market unstable? I don't know.
And where are the sane billionaires?
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While I understand your concern, think about the billionaires currently helming US government. What happens to their fortunes in a crash? Not to say a crash won't happen, but a permanent crash does not seem to be in the interests of ALL the billionaires, at least the sane ones.
I was thinking about "the billionaires that are currently helming US government" - that's what has me worried. This kind of fuckery is unprecedented. Maybe they could make crypto the new currency and make the stock market unstable? I don't know.
And where are the sane billionaires?
cross hairs.
Since Musk isn't a real government employee, can he be held personally liable for damages if he is sued? Those are some deep pockets.
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The 4% guardians like to point to how well it held up in the past hundred years. We had a world war, a depression, multiple recessions, VietNam and the 20–years’ Middle East wars, political assassinations, Trump 1.0, and lotsa enemies with nukes—and we’re fine.
What makes today worse perhaps is the fairly high number of large-scale unknowns. You’ve got a bonkers Trump 2.0; more highly sophisticated superpowers that don’t get along than we’ve had before; AI/Tech that even it’s promoters believe could become unsafe; the huge and growing costs of climate change—include the growing mass migrations from poor countries; 2 major generations in the US that are economically demoralized; crazy ass debt; an incredibly highly-valued market that seems to have been melting up for years; and a general consensus in the world that economic globalization has failed. Plus, the US seems to have been cooking the jobs reports and inflation numbers to calm us down over inequality for years and it’s all coming home to roost.
My barometer has always been Buffet. Is he 50% in cash now?
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My barometer has always been Buffet. Is he 50% in cash now?
Buffet is holding a $325 billion cash pile out of Berkshire's $1.02 trillion market cap, so roughly 1/3rd cash. The most likely reason he's hoarding cash is the "buffet indicator", dividing the stock market's total valuation by GDP.
"The Stock Market is Significantly Overvalued according to Buffett Indicator. Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (currently at 204.1%), it is likely to return -0.1% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends."
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
One flaw is revealed by the largest company Buffet has invested in: Apple. They sell iPhones all over the world, not just in the U.S. Dividing the market cap of multinational companies by U.S. GDP seems to ignore their international production and markets. I also don't know if Buffet has mentioned his indicator recently, or what he thinks about it now.
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This craziness feels different than previous world events. When SHOULD one pull out of the stock market? It feels like things could blow up really fast...
How confident are people here feeling about riding this wave specifically in terms of the stock market not crashing?
Pull out, right before you feel like you're going to.........oh wait......
snort
Don't wait. Unles you are trying to start a family... ;)
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How you feel now is likely very similar to how Republicans felt when Joe Biden took office. Economic sentiment these days has an extraordinarily large partisan political bias. If they had sold off because of political winds shifting, they would have missed out on a lot of growth.
Look at this chart and take a deep breath. https://images.app.goo.gl/JHqrW2k9ZhBynWyx8
Don’t be a partisan doomer. Don’t try to time the market.
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How you feel now is likely very similar to how Republicans felt when Joe Biden took office. Economic sentiment these days has an extraordinarily large partisan political bias. If they had sold off because of political winds shifting, they would have missed out on a lot of growth.
Look at this chart and take a deep breath. https://images.app.goo.gl/JHqrW2k9ZhBynWyx8
Don’t be a partisan doomer. Don’t try to time the market.
The market will be fine. Stocks will probably go up because companies can make a ton of money by charging junk fees, misclassifying their employees to get out of paying overtime, and dumping pollutants into the nearest body of water.
Can I still be a partisan doomer about non-stock things that affect my quality of life? No amount of stock going up can replace being allowed to make my own healthcare decisions or read whatever I want or being able to trust that the meat I buy won't make me sick.
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How you feel now is likely very similar to how Republicans felt when Joe Biden took office. Economic sentiment these days has an extraordinarily large partisan political bias. If they had sold off because of political winds shifting, they would have missed out on a lot of growth.
Look at this chart and take a deep breath. https://images.app.goo.gl/JHqrW2k9ZhBynWyx8
Don’t be a partisan doomer. Don’t try to time the market.
The market will be fine. Stocks will probably go up because companies can make a ton of money by charging junk fees, misclassifying their employees to get out of paying overtime, and dumping pollutants into the nearest body of water. Can I still be a partisan doomer about non-stock things that affect my quality of life? No amount of stock going up can replace being allowed to make my own healthcare decisions or read whatever I want.
Feel free.
Maybe just try to keep in mind that your current experience is not so different from how others feel when our team wins.
I'll always take an opportunity to plug Why We're Polarized by Ezra Klein, if anybody is looking for something to read.
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How you feel now is likely very similar to how Republicans felt when Joe Biden took office. Economic sentiment these days has an extraordinarily large partisan political bias. If they had sold off because of political winds shifting, they would have missed out on a lot of growth.
Look at this chart and take a deep breath. https://images.app.goo.gl/JHqrW2k9ZhBynWyx8
Don’t be a partisan doomer. Don’t try to time the market.
The market will be fine. Stocks will probably go up because companies can make a ton of money by charging junk fees, misclassifying their employees to get out of paying overtime, and dumping pollutants into the nearest body of water. Can I still be a partisan doomer about non-stock things that affect my quality of life? No amount of stock going up can replace being allowed to make my own healthcare decisions or read whatever I want.
Feel free.
Maybe just try to keep in mind that your current experience is not so different from how others feel when our team wins.
I'll always take an opportunity to plug Why We're Polarized by Ezra Klein, if anybody is looking for something to read.
Great book. I'm recommending it to everyone right now.
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How you feel now is likely very similar to how Republicans felt when Joe Biden took office. Economic sentiment these days has an extraordinarily large partisan political bias. If they had sold off because of political winds shifting, they would have missed out on a lot of growth.
Look at this chart and take a deep breath. https://images.app.goo.gl/JHqrW2k9ZhBynWyx8
Don’t be a partisan doomer. Don’t try to time the market.
The market will be fine. Stocks will probably go up because companies can make a ton of money by charging junk fees, misclassifying their employees to get out of paying overtime, and dumping pollutants into the nearest body of water. Can I still be a partisan doomer about non-stock things that affect my quality of life? No amount of stock going up can replace being allowed to make my own healthcare decisions or read whatever I want.
Feel free.
Maybe just try to keep in mind that your current experience is not so different from how others feel when our team wins.
I'll always take an opportunity to plug Why We're Polarized by Ezra Klein, if anybody is looking for something to read.
It's not about my "team" winning. Please don't tell me you can "both side" the new administration's unconstitutional power grabs and scapegoating of minorities. If he'd won and then spent his time playing golf instead of making a bunch of unconstitutional executive orders, or even if he did a bunch of stuff I disagreed with but went through the proper channels, I would have been disappointed but shrugged it off.
I'll read the book though. I recently finished "the Chaos Machine " by Max Fisher which talks about how social media algorithms drive people into conspiracy theories and extremism.
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Someday there will probably be a "don't try and time the market" event, but you won't know about it in advance so there won't be any actionable information to help you time it.
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I'm glad I don't have to worry about such things any more.
See my discussion of the collar strategy in Investor Alley. A major run-up would be profitable for me, and a major collapse would be a buying opportunity. I've set up positions so that both statements can be true simultaneously, and a ratcheting effect locks in my gains as the market moves up over the years. I'm still exposed to the risk of a dollar decline, though.
That said, I'm not going to avoid the question like everyone else is doing.
There have to be circumstances for any individual in which it is rational to exit risky assets. Otherwise we are advocating blind faith. If you say "I would buy US stocks no matter what" isn't that like having an unfalsifiable opinion?
Even the most staunch advocate of B&H-no-matter-what is not piling all-in on Chinese stocks, or Argentine bonds, or Turkish stocks, or Russian ruble currency arbitrage, or the latest buttcoin, or orange juice futures. The no-matter-what crowd would say these markets are too risky - far riskier than B&H'ing the S&P500 has historically been. But what if something occurred that made the S&P500 more risky than it has historically been?
We can debate the particular circumstances, but first we have to establish that such circumstances exist? Does anyone here think it impossible for the U.S. stock market to become too risky?
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Good point @evme but doesn't having a moron and a lunatic running amok seem like actionable information?
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Good point @evme but doesn't having a moron and a lunatic running amok seem like actionable information?
But how?
Having a global pandemic didn't make it terribly predictable for people to time the market.
Market timing means outsmarting the market, not just understanding it. It means knowing *before* the majority of investors what to do and when.
It's not enough to know something significant is happening. That won't allow you to come out better than everyone else because the market IS how everyone responds.
Are you confident you can outsmart how things will go and time it perfectly twice?
I certainly don't have that confidence in myself.
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This thread has been great to help me clarify what I need to do, thank you all.
I see now that I'm not actually trying to time the market, but to realize some gains from the market. I'm past the accumulation phase - but I'd hate to see my money dissappear (obviously).
So I think it's time to take a chunk out and buy some land.
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This thread has been great to help me clarify what I need to do, thank you all.
I see now that I'm not actually trying to time the market, but to realize some gains from the market. I'm past the accumulation phase - but I'd hate to see my money dissappear (obviously).
So I think it's time to take a chunk out and buy some land.
Better hurry. I assume it takes a long time to buy land outside the US.
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This thread has been great to help me clarify what I need to do, thank you all.
I see now that I'm not actually trying to time the market, but to realize some gains from the market. I'm past the accumulation phase - but I'd hate to see my money dissappear (obviously).
So I think it's time to take a chunk out and buy some land.
Better hurry. I assume it takes a long time to buy land outside the US.
Lol
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How you feel now is likely very similar to how Republicans felt when Joe Biden took office. Economic sentiment these days has an extraordinarily large partisan political bias. If they had sold off because of political winds shifting, they would have missed out on a lot of growth.
Look at this chart and take a deep breath. https://images.app.goo.gl/JHqrW2k9ZhBynWyx8
Don’t be a partisan doomer. Don’t try to time the market.
The market will be fine. Stocks will probably go up because companies can make a ton of money by charging junk fees, misclassifying their employees to get out of paying overtime, and dumping pollutants into the nearest body of water. Can I still be a partisan doomer about non-stock things that affect my quality of life? No amount of stock going up can replace being allowed to make my own healthcare decisions or read whatever I want.
Feel free.
Maybe just try to keep in mind that your current experience is not so different from how others feel when our team wins.
I'll always take an opportunity to plug Why We're Polarized by Ezra Klein, if anybody is looking for something to read.
It's not about my "team" winning. Please don't tell me you can "both side" the new administration's unconstitutional power grabs and scapegoating of minorities. If he'd won and then spent his time playing golf instead of making a bunch of unconstitutional executive orders, or even if he did a bunch of stuff I disagreed with but went through the proper channels, I would have been disappointed but shrugged it off.
I'll read the book though. I recently finished "the Chaos Machine " by Max Fisher which talks about how social media algorithms drive people into conspiracy theories and extremism.
I would be interested to hear how you think your life may change for the worse during the next four years, what loss of liberty or restrictions do you see coming?
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I'm glad I don't have to worry about such things any more.
See my discussion of the collar strategy in Investor Alley. A major run-up would be profitable for me, and a major collapse would be a buying opportunity. I've set up positions so that both statements can be true simultaneously, and a ratcheting effect locks in my gains as the market moves up over the years. I'm still exposed to the risk of a dollar decline, though.
That said, I'm not going to avoid the question like everyone else is doing.
There have to be circumstances for any individual in which it is rational to exit risky assets. Otherwise we are advocating blind faith. If you say "I would buy US stocks no matter what" isn't that like having an unfalsifiable opinion?
Even the most staunch advocate of B&H-no-matter-what is not piling all-in on Chinese stocks, or Argentine bonds, or Turkish stocks, or Russian ruble currency arbitrage, or the latest buttcoin, or orange juice futures. The no-matter-what crowd would say these markets are too risky - far riskier than B&H'ing the S&P500 has historically been. But what if something occurred that made the S&P500 more risky than it has historically been?
We can debate the particular circumstances, but first we have to establish that such circumstances exist? Does anyone here think it impossible for the U.S. stock market to become too risky?
Of course the US market will at some point lose its dominance, I believe. The problem is, exiting the US market and joining another one is also a “timing the market” choice. Bill Browder saw an investment opportunity in Russia, and he was right, until he was wrong.
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I would be interested to hear how you think your life may change for the worse during the next four years, what loss of liberty or restrictions do you see coming?
Well, we're not even a month into the new administration and they've already decided to tell all the workers at entire agencies established and funded by Congress that they should just stop doing their jobs, that the work of the agency isn't work the administration believes in so it won't be done anymore. That's...different. They've issued blatantly unconstitutional executive orders (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/birthright-citizenship-second-injunction-indefinite-boardman-rcna190887), and signaled that they're planning to ignore any court orders they find sufficiently inconvenient (https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/09/us/politics/vance-trump-federal-courts-executive-order.html). Increased immigration enforcement has made kids in my city afraid to go to school, and adults afraid to visit places like the food bank.
Were any of these actions targeted at me specifically? Nah. I had barely heard of USAID or the CFPB before, my own birthright citizenship isn't currently under attack, and I certainly won't miss the penny. Add it all up however and it seems like due process, checks-and-balances, and the law itself are rapidly fading into irrelevance when those things conflict with the leadership's goals. We've seen this play out in countries around the world. It ain't pretty.
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Straight white men who aren't farmers or government workers should be fine for a little while.
Women no longer have body autonomy in red states (which could be EOd out for women in blue states as well.) They're also considering going after birth control and no fault divorce so we can go back to the "great" days when women were property.
Transgender people no longer have the right to use their passport if it doesn't agree with their birth certificate and have lost their rights to related medical care before age 19.
Medicaid, Medicare, SS, and ACA are in their sights as well. When that happens the poor and middle income folks will be in trouble - even the white males.
Tariffs and deporting immigrants will increase the cost of just about everything. This will affect everybody who isn't wealthy. If the economy comes crashing down from their slash and burn tactics, it will affect all of us.
So just because your life hasn't changed for the worse in the first 3 weeks, you'd have to be pretty naive to think it won't change much in the next 4 years.
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Straight white men who aren't farmers or government workers should be fine for a little while.
Women no longer have body autonomy in red states (which could be EOd out for women in blue states as well.) They're also considering going after birth control and no fault divorce so we can go back to the "great" days when women were property.
Transgender people no longer have the right to use their passport if it doesn't agree with their birth certificate and have lost their rights to related medical care before age 19.
Medicaid, Medicare, SS, and ACA are in their sights as well. When that happens the poor and middle income folks will be in trouble - even the white males.
Tariffs and deporting immigrants will increase the cost of just about everything. This will affect everybody who isn't wealthy. If the economy comes crashing down from their slash and burn tactics, it will affect all of us.
So just because your life hasn't changed for the worse in the first 3 weeks, you'd have to be pretty naive to think it won't change much in the next 4 years.
It shocks me how many people don’t see the loss of bodily autonomy as a hair-on-fire emergency.
Also it super pisses me off that so many of our noble, moral overlords (the Supreme Court) LIED in their confirmation hearings when asked if they would overturn RvW. RvW should not have been the only protection, and it won’t be.
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btw. since the 2022 abortion bans, infant death in the US have risen by 7%, I read. Pro Life Win!
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btw. since the 2022 abortion bans, infant death in the US have risen by 7%, I read. Pro Life Win!
Found articles agreeing with that 7% figure. More detail:
"About 80% of those additional infant deaths could be attributed to congenital anomalies, which were higher than expected in six of the 18 months following the Dobbs decision, according to the new research"
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/21/health/infant-deaths-increase-post-dobbs-abortion-bans/index.html
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Everyone keeps saying 4 years.....in 2 years the Trumpicans will lose the house and that will balance things out a bit. Then 2 years later if it is still toxic, the presidency and senate will turnover to the Dumbacrats and they will over reach and go to far on their agenda...then 2 years after that the house will turnover to the Republicrumbs (hopefully no more Trumpicans) and the cycle will go on.
Divided government has been and will be our only hope.
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btw. since the 2022 abortion bans, infant death in the US have risen by 7%, I read. Pro Life Win!
Found articles agreeing with that 7% figure. More detail:
"About 80% of those additional infant deaths could be attributed to congenital anomalies, which were higher than expected in six of the 18 months following the Dobbs decision, according to the new research"
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/21/health/infant-deaths-increase-post-dobbs-abortion-bans/index.html
Hundreds of nonviable fetuses carried to term to die.
Pretty much every case must have been a tragedy for the pregnant person and family.
But cruelty is the point, I guess.
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btw. since the 2022 abortion bans, infant death in the US have risen by 7%, I read. Pro Life Win!
Found articles agreeing with that 7% figure. More detail:
"About 80% of those additional infant deaths could be attributed to congenital anomalies, which were higher than expected in six of the 18 months following the Dobbs decision, according to the new research"
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/21/health/infant-deaths-increase-post-dobbs-abortion-bans/index.html
Hundreds of nonviable fetuses carried to term to die.
Pretty much every case must have been a tragedy for the pregnant person and family.
But cruelty is the point, I guess.
Don't worry, conservative politicians are swinging into action to deal with this problem. They're going to stop collecting data about deaths in pregnancy (https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2023/aug/06/idaho-has-quietly-dissolved-its-committee-tasked-w/).
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About the only thing the US consistently worships is the almighty dollar. I don't think even Trump will mess with the fortunes of the country's richest people. And their fortunes in the market are tied to yours.
About the only thing I worry about is something really left field, like Trump declaring some kind of cryptocurrency will supersede USD. And of course, he and his buddies would have the very currencies he orders the government to start using already in pocket.
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About the only thing the US consistently worships is the almighty dollar. I don't think even Trump will mess with the fortunes of the country's richest people. And their fortunes in the market are tied to yours.
Does this reasoning apply to other post-democratic regimes, such as Russia? In the Russian example, a party of oligarchs seized power and living standards have gone straight down.
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About the only thing the US consistently worships is the almighty dollar. I don't think even Trump will mess with the fortunes of the country's richest people. And their fortunes in the market are tied to yours.
About the only thing I worry about is something really left field, like Trump declaring some kind of cryptocurrency will supersede USD. And of course, he and his buddies would have the very currencies he orders the government to start using already in pocket.
He's already working on the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve".
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About the only thing the US consistently worships is the almighty dollar. I don't think even Trump will mess with the fortunes of the country's richest people. And their fortunes in the market are tied to yours.
About the only thing I worry about is something really left field, like Trump declaring some kind of cryptocurrency will supersede USD. And of course, he and his buddies would have the very currencies he orders the government to start using already in pocket.
Yes, I've been worried about this too.
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This craziness feels different than previous world events. When SHOULD one pull out of the stock market? It feels like things could blow up really fast...
How confident are people here feeling about riding this wave specifically in terms of the stock market not crashing?
Nym checks out.
I'm increasingly worried about this too. Those who choose to stay the course aren't being crazy, it's probably the better strategy if you can't predict what President Lunatic is going to do, but I've been more conservative with my investment choices as a hedge, and the annoying thing is that I don't know what a safe haven is anymore. I've been putting new surplus money into money market funds as a defensive maneuver, but if that guy decides that he will default on US debt, which he has specifically said he might do, then that's not safe either. I'm increasingly of the opinion that shit will hit the fan at some point, it's just not clear what shit and what fan or how soon.
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
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Thanks Fru-Gal. I have already rebalanced my portfolios in anticipation of something bad, but like I say, I don't know what the defensive maneuver really is, because if President Numbnuts won't honor the debt of the US, then all bets are off. It will be a bloodbath. There will be no investments that won't get clobbered.
Gold is an interesting hedge and I have spent my whole life dismissing it, but maybe now is the time to rethink that.
As for slashing my spending, hey, I do that already, I'm a mustachian!
I also understand that I'm a lucky person who is very privileged and won't be the one who really suffers if things go south. But I'd like to avoid that.
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Ah good, this thread has talked me down a bit. I was trying to figure out what alternative there was to the stock market if I wanted to put a large portion of it somewhere else and had concluded that there really isn't one. That said, I do plan to focus on building some cash reserves this year to cover more than the 6 months of expenses that I would normally keep liquid. I'm considering 3 years' worth but haven't settled on a total amount yet.
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
"Rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance" sounds like a fancy way of saying try and time the market in a situation like this.
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Ah good, this thread has talked me down a bit. I was trying to figure out what alternative there was to the stock market if I wanted to put a large portion of it somewhere else and had concluded that there really isn't one. That said, I do plan to focus on building some cash reserves this year to cover more than the 6 months of expenses that I would normally keep liquid. I'm considering 3 years' worth but haven't settled on a total amount yet.
Yes that's what I'm doing, I'm not buying more equities right now and focused on building cash and maybe some gold and taking a wait and see approach.
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Thanks Fru-Gal. I have already rebalanced my portfolios in anticipation of something bad, but like I say, I don't know what the defensive maneuver really is, because if President Numbnuts won't honor the debt of the US, then all bets are off. It will be a bloodbath. There will be no investments that won't get clobbered.
If he follows through with his "some of the Treasuries are fraudulent" line, even the spineless GOP Congresslings will revolt when the market takes a >25% dump in one day.
I think he misspoke but we are hurtling to the debt ceiling.
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
"Rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance" sounds like a fancy way of saying try and time the market in a situation like this.
It's not. When the shit hits the fan, investors shouldn't panic. If they do, they have too much risk.
This would be the same as a 1987 crash. If a 22% one day crash keeps you up at night, then you have too much risk.
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
"Rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance" sounds like a fancy way of saying try and time the market in a situation like this.
Rebalancing is not a fancy way of saying “SELL SELL SELL,” as the the posters below my comment pointed out. Nor is it a fancy way of saying “time the market.” It means check your AA and rebalance at your desired interval.
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
"Rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance" sounds like a fancy way of saying try and time the market in a situation like this.
It's not. When the shit hits the fan, investors shouldn't panic. If they do, they have too much risk.
This would be the same as a 1987 crash. If a 22% one day crash keeps you up at night, then you have too much risk.
I agree with that. But if you are rebalancing due to hunches about the market, which is what this thread seems to be about, it just sounds like justifying an attempt to time the market.
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Watching the series finale of the US in real time has fundamentally changed the amount of risk I can stomach. I'm doing what I need to do to sleep at night. I've been a "buy and hold" investor for 40 years. This feels very different and I'm adjusting my AA accordingly.
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Just to provide a counterbalance to the thread, I'm still putting over $3000 per month straight into stocks. I mentioned upthread that I pulled some cash out, but that was in December and based on our 2024 tax status. I have made zero changes to our plan since Trump took office.
I'm still in the market just in case things turn out okay. I'm getting involved (volunteering, protesting) in case they don't.
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
"Rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance" sounds like a fancy way of saying try and time the market in a situation like this.
It's not. When the shit hits the fan, investors shouldn't panic. If they do, they have too much risk.
This would be the same as a 1987 crash. If a 22% one day crash keeps you up at night, then you have too much risk.
I agree with that. But if you are rebalancing due to hunches about the market, which is what this thread seems to be about, it just sounds like justifying an attempt to time the market.
Agreed but it's hard to know your limit until it's tested.
A plan to sell when it looks troubling and then buy when the coast is clear is timing the market. A friend tried to do that with covid and missed out on years of gains.
What's more interesting is creating a plan about when to move money if the shit truly hits the fan. If Trump starts ignoring court orders and stacks the fed with TV hosts and uses government powers to take over businesses, then what do you do, if anything?
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
"Rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance" sounds like a fancy way of saying try and time the market in a situation like this.
It's not. When the shit hits the fan, investors shouldn't panic. If they do, they have too much risk.
This would be the same as a 1987 crash. If a 22% one day crash keeps you up at night, then you have too much risk.
I agree with that. But if you are rebalancing due to hunches about the market, which is what this thread seems to be about, it just sounds like justifying an attempt to time the market.
Agreed but it's hard to know your limit until it's tested.
A plan to sell when it looks troubling and then buy when the coast is clear is timing the market. A friend tried to do that with covid and missed out on years of gains.
What's more interesting is creating a plan about when to move money if the shit truly hits the fan. If Trump starts ignoring court orders and stacks the fed with TV hosts and uses government powers to take over businesses, then what do you do, if anything?
I think covid is the perfect example. When people moved to safer investments when it became obvious that covid was going to be a big deal, did their risk tolerances change? Or did they just suddenly become aware of a big risk and want to make a change in response? Risk tolerance and presence of risk are not the same thing, and this case being discussed feels similar to me. Many are suddenly aware that there is a big risk in the white house, and they want to suddenly change their "risk tolerance" to accommodate that. I don't think that's what their doing... in reality they are just trying to time the market and trying to justify it.
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When Hitler came to power in 1933, Germany experienced nine more years of pretty fantastic growth.
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I just remembered that our friend junioroldtimer took his shot at VTSAX $68.18 on a similar premise:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/
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No. Like Elon Musk (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk#Relationships_and_children) I don't plan to pull out
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Ah good, this thread has talked me down a bit. I was trying to figure out what alternative there was to the stock market if I wanted to put a large portion of it somewhere else and had concluded that there really isn't one. That said, I do plan to focus on building some cash reserves this year to cover more than the 6 months of expenses that I would normally keep liquid. I'm considering 3 years' worth but haven't settled on a total amount yet.
There is an alternative to taking the stock market's full risk, that also involves staying invested in the stock market:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-my-collars-did-on-a-2-9-day-hedged-portfolio-illustration/ (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-my-collars-did-on-a-2-9-day-hedged-portfolio-illustration/)
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Ah good, this thread has talked me down a bit. I was trying to figure out what alternative there was to the stock market if I wanted to put a large portion of it somewhere else and had concluded that there really isn't one. That said, I do plan to focus on building some cash reserves this year to cover more than the 6 months of expenses that I would normally keep liquid. I'm considering 3 years' worth but haven't settled on a total amount yet.
There is an alternative to taking the stock market's full risk, that also involves staying invested in the stock market:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-my-collars-did-on-a-2-9-day-hedged-portfolio-illustration/ (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-my-collars-did-on-a-2-9-day-hedged-portfolio-illustration/)
Thanks, I’ve been looking for something like this but my options experience is almost nonexistent. I’d definitely like to give up some gains to avoid massive loss. Still worried about counterparty risk in this scenario.
I had considered going to cash and then just buy calls but has tax implications
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When Hitler came to power in 1933, Germany experienced nine more years of pretty fantastic growth.
Not helpful.
One of the first things they did was make it so people who left forfeited their money. A lot of other countries at the time made it a requirement to have a bunch of cash to immigrate, which resulted in anyone who didn't leave really early being trapped once the killing started.
Also not funny. My kid is in one of the very first groups of people to have been killed if we'd been there at the time. I'm sure a bunch of people on the forum are also in groups who would have been murdered.
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When Hitler came to power in 1933, Germany experienced nine more years of pretty fantastic growth.
Not helpful.
One of the first things they did was make it so people who left forfeited their money. A lot of other countries at the time made it a requirement to have a bunch of cash to immigrate, which resulted in anyone who didn't leave really early being trapped once the killing started.
Also not funny. My kid is in one of the very first groups of people to have been killed if we'd been there at the time. I'm sure a bunch of people on the forum are also in groups who would have been murdered.
That is the question...when to leave (and how to preserve the means to leave - cash) and where to go, who is willing to take you, and how far to go. It's not great news to me that Trump is pretty popular in Canada (or at least was, before the tariffs), and that Canada has "maple MAGA".
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
"Rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance" sounds like a fancy way of saying try and time the market in a situation like this.
It's not. When the shit hits the fan, investors shouldn't panic. If they do, they have too much risk.
This would be the same as a 1987 crash. If a 22% one day crash keeps you up at night, then you have too much risk.
I agree with that. But if you are rebalancing due to hunches about the market, which is what this thread seems to be about, it just sounds like justifying an attempt to time the market.
Agreed but it's hard to know your limit until it's tested.
A plan to sell when it looks troubling and then buy when the coast is clear is timing the market. A friend tried to do that with covid and missed out on years of gains.
What's more interesting is creating a plan about when to move money if the shit truly hits the fan. If Trump starts ignoring court orders and stacks the fed with TV hosts and uses government powers to take over businesses, then what do you do, if anything?
I think covid is the perfect example. When people moved to safer investments when it became obvious that covid was going to be a big deal, did their risk tolerances change? Or did they just suddenly become aware of a big risk and want to make a change in response? Risk tolerance and presence of risk are not the same thing, and this case being discussed feels similar to me. Many are suddenly aware that there is a big risk in the white house, and they want to suddenly change their "risk tolerance" to accommodate that. I don't think that's what their doing... in reality they are just trying to time the market and trying to justify it.
So your advice to someone already experiencing concerns because of their risk tolerance is to pretend that they aren’t feeling that way, do nothing to balance their portfolio (for example, ADDING hedges, taking some gains, buying some kind of fixed interest asset like CDs or T-bills) and then panic sell when the bottom falls out?
Because if humans didn’t get worried, then panic, we would never experience markets dropping. The entire stock market is an irrational, emotional experience and it’s foolish to pretend otherwise.
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IF shit burns down here it won't matter if you have cash. Markets will implode and the US dollar will destabilize as the rest of the world says F them....hello China.
Physical gold may work to go to other countries.
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Straight white men who aren't farmers or government workers should be fine for a little while.
Women no longer have body autonomy in red states (which could be EOd out for women in blue states as well.) They're also considering going after birth control and no fault divorce so we can go back to the "great" days when women were property.
Transgender people no longer have the right to use their passport if it doesn't agree with their birth certificate and have lost their rights to related medical care before age 19.
Medicaid, Medicare, SS, and ACA are in their sights as well. When that happens the poor and middle income folks will be in trouble - even the white males.
Tariffs and deporting immigrants will increase the cost of just about everything. This will affect everybody who isn't wealthy. If the economy comes crashing down from their slash and burn tactics, it will affect all of us.
So just because your life hasn't changed for the worse in the first 3 weeks, you'd have to be pretty naive to think it won't change much in the next 4 years.
It shocks me how many people don’t see the loss of bodily autonomy as a hair-on-fire emergency.
Also it super pisses me off that so many of our noble, moral overlords (the Supreme Court) LIED in their confirmation hearings when asked if they would overturn RvW. RvW should not have been the only protection, and it won’t be.
The labels pro-choice and pro-life are marketing devices that have successfully confused some of the population and alienated others, but it seems more than 60% of Americans are in favor of permitting abortion in either all or most cases. This is not surprising. On many issues the media hypes as partisan the general population is in agreement, usually siding with common sense that considers right and wrong and leans toward protecting individual rights.
The question however is how to translate that into actions that affect law.
The current 2-party democratic system we have has proven incapable of doing this. Continuing the same behaviors and expecting different outcomes is…?
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When Hitler came to power in 1933, Germany experienced nine more years of pretty fantastic growth.
Not helpful.
One of the first things they did was make it so people who left forfeited their money. A lot of other countries at the time made it a requirement to have a bunch of cash to immigrate, which resulted in anyone who didn't leave really early being trapped once the killing started.
Also not funny. My kid is in one of the very first groups of people to have been killed if we'd been there at the time. I'm sure a bunch of people on the forum are also in groups who would have been murdered.
That is the question...when to leave (and how to preserve the means to leave - cash) and where to go, who is willing to take you, and how far to go. It's not great news to me that Trump is pretty popular in Canada (or at least was, before the tariffs), and that Canada has "maple MAGA".
My brother is telling me to leave. I have dual citizenship with another country that I can claim for my kids but they don't do automatic residency permits for spouses and I have no relatives there any more. Also I keep getting articles popping up about how their education and health systems are underfunded so I might be better off staying here for now or maybe just going for a visit at first instead of disrupting the kids' educations.
I read Prophet Song by Paul Lynch last year which is about this question and it was like watching the lead character run up the stairs in a horror movie. I don't know if it would be a good idea to read it now if you are already anxious about the situation.
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Straight white men who aren't farmers or government workers should be fine for a little while.
Women no longer have body autonomy in red states (which could be EOd out for women in blue states as well.) They're also considering going after birth control and no fault divorce so we can go back to the "great" days when women were property.
Transgender people no longer have the right to use their passport if it doesn't agree with their birth certificate and have lost their rights to related medical care before age 19.
Medicaid, Medicare, SS, and ACA are in their sights as well. When that happens the poor and middle income folks will be in trouble - even the white males.
Tariffs and deporting immigrants will increase the cost of just about everything. This will affect everybody who isn't wealthy. If the economy comes crashing down from their slash and burn tactics, it will affect all of us.
So just because your life hasn't changed for the worse in the first 3 weeks, you'd have to be pretty naive to think it won't change much in the next 4 years.
It shocks me how many people don’t see the loss of bodily autonomy as a hair-on-fire emergency.
Also it super pisses me off that so many of our noble, moral overlords (the Supreme Court) LIED in their confirmation hearings when asked if they would overturn RvW. RvW should not have been the only protection, and it won’t be.
The labels pro-choice and pro-life are marketing devices that have successfully confused some of the population and alienated others, but it seems more than 60% of Americans are in favor of permitting abortion in either all or most cases. This is not surprising. On many issues the media hypes as partisan the general population is in agreement, usually siding with common sense that considers right and wrong and leans toward protecting individual rights.
The question however is how to translate that into actions that affect law.
The current 2-party democratic system we have has proven incapable of doing this. Continuing the same behaviors and expecting different outcomes is…?
Banning gerrymandering would be a good start. A lot of state legislatures have a majority that is the opposite of their constituents because of gerrymandering. Also ranked choice voting would get rid of the two party stranglehold by allowing people to vote for a third party without feeling like they're taking away from their preferred big 2 candidate. I would also like to see more ballot measures where the people get to make a choice directly instead of going through their legislators.
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When Hitler came to power in 1933, Germany experienced nine more years of pretty fantastic growth.
Not helpful.
One of the first things they did was make it so people who left forfeited their money. A lot of other countries at the time made it a requirement to have a bunch of cash to immigrate, which resulted in anyone who didn't leave really early being trapped once the killing started.
Also not funny. My kid is in one of the very first groups of people to have been killed if we'd been there at the time. I'm sure a bunch of people on the forum are also in groups who would have been murdered.
That is the question...when to leave (and how to preserve the means to leave - cash) and where to go, who is willing to take you, and how far to go. It's not great news to me that Trump is pretty popular in Canada (or at least was, before the tariffs), and that Canada has "maple MAGA".
My brother is telling me to leave. I have dual citizenship with another country that I can claim for my kids but they don't do automatic residency permits for spouses and I have no relatives there any more. Also I keep getting articles popping up about how their education and health systems are underfunded so I might be better off staying here for now or maybe just going for a visit at first instead of disrupting the kids' educations.
I read Prophet Song by Paul Lynch last year which is about this question and it was like watching the lead character run up the stairs in a horror movie. I don't know if it would be a good idea to read it now if you are already anxious about the situation.
Aside from American innovation the two main things that have provided us relatively safe physical and economical experience is two vast oceans and relative friendlies to the north and south (maybe not for long) and the US dollar being the global reserve currency (maybe not for long).
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Ah good, this thread has talked me down a bit. I was trying to figure out what alternative there was to the stock market if I wanted to put a large portion of it somewhere else and had concluded that there really isn't one. That said, I do plan to focus on building some cash reserves this year to cover more than the 6 months of expenses that I would normally keep liquid. I'm considering 3 years' worth but haven't settled on a total amount yet.
There is an alternative to taking the stock market's full risk, that also involves staying invested in the stock market:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-my-collars-did-on-a-2-9-day-hedged-portfolio-illustration/ (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-my-collars-did-on-a-2-9-day-hedged-portfolio-illustration/)
Thanks, I’ve been looking for something like this but my options experience is almost nonexistent. I’d definitely like to give up some gains to avoid massive loss. Still worried about counterparty risk in this scenario.
I had considered going to cash and then just buy calls but has tax implications
The education requirements are real, and there are no shortcuts. Reading and paper-trading are a must before setting up a hedged AA. Yet this learning is a good redirection for anxiety, because if you learn these tools you can set yourself up to thrive despite a 2000-2003 or 2007-2009 level event, to hold a bolder portfolio despite the risky macro factors, or to at least avoid selling into what seems like a worsening situation.
Some resources:
https://www.optionseducation.org/theoptionseducationcenter/occ-learning (https://www.optionseducation.org/theoptionseducationcenter/occ-learning)
https://optionalpha.com/courses (https://optionalpha.com/courses)
https://optionalpha.com/options-strategies (https://optionalpha.com/options-strategies)
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When Hitler came to power in 1933, Germany experienced nine more years of pretty fantastic growth.
Not helpful.
One of the first things they did was make it so people who left forfeited their money. A lot of other countries at the time made it a requirement to have a bunch of cash to immigrate, which resulted in anyone who didn't leave really early being trapped once the killing started.
Also not funny. My kid is in one of the very first groups of people to have been killed if we'd been there at the time. I'm sure a bunch of people on the forum are also in groups who would have been murdered.
That is the question...when to leave (and how to preserve the means to leave - cash) and where to go, who is willing to take you, and how far to go. It's not great news to me that Trump is pretty popular in Canada (or at least was, before the tariffs), and that Canada has "maple MAGA".
My brother is telling me to leave. I have dual citizenship with another country that I can claim for my kids but they don't do automatic residency permits for spouses and I have no relatives there any more. Also I keep getting articles popping up about how their education and health systems are underfunded so I might be better off staying here for now or maybe just going for a visit at first instead of disrupting the kids' educations.
I read Prophet Song by Paul Lynch last year which is about this question and it was like watching the lead character run up the stairs in a horror movie. I don't know if it would be a good idea to read it now if you are already anxious about the situation.
Aside from American innovation the two main things that have provided us relatively safe physical and economical experience is two vast oceans and relative friendlies to the north and south (maybe not for long) and the US dollar being the global reserve currency (maybe not for long).
We've also been safe from dying of some preventable disease because we've had clean water and public health measures like malaria control and mass vaccination. I just popped over to look at the news and saw that Kennedy is confirmed which is a giant red flag for me.
It also worries me that health insurance companies can just decide not to cover things or delay care for conditions where timely treatment can mean whether the patient lives or dies. I know this isn't new but I just can't see the current administration doing anything about it.
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
"Rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance" sounds like a fancy way of saying try and time the market in a situation like this.
It's not. When the shit hits the fan, investors shouldn't panic. If they do, they have too much risk.
This would be the same as a 1987 crash. If a 22% one day crash keeps you up at night, then you have too much risk.
I agree with that. But if you are rebalancing due to hunches about the market, which is what this thread seems to be about, it just sounds like justifying an attempt to time the market.
Agreed but it's hard to know your limit until it's tested.
A plan to sell when it looks troubling and then buy when the coast is clear is timing the market. A friend tried to do that with covid and missed out on years of gains.
What's more interesting is creating a plan about when to move money if the shit truly hits the fan. If Trump starts ignoring court orders and stacks the fed with TV hosts and uses government powers to take over businesses, then what do you do, if anything?
I think covid is the perfect example. When people moved to safer investments when it became obvious that covid was going to be a big deal, did their risk tolerances change? Or did they just suddenly become aware of a big risk and want to make a change in response? Risk tolerance and presence of risk are not the same thing, and this case being discussed feels similar to me. Many are suddenly aware that there is a big risk in the white house, and they want to suddenly change their "risk tolerance" to accommodate that. I don't think that's what their doing... in reality they are just trying to time the market and trying to justify it.
So your advice to someone already experiencing concerns because of their risk tolerance is to pretend that they aren’t feeling that way, do nothing to balance their portfolio (for example, ADDING hedges, taking some gains, buying some kind of fixed interest asset like CDs or T-bills) and then panic sell when the bottom falls out?
Because if humans didn’t get worried, then panic, we would never experience markets dropping. The entire stock market is an irrational, emotional experience and it’s foolish to pretend otherwise.
Yes, actually... this is my advice and it's the mustachian way. Don't let fears or politics change your ways. Markets will go up and down, but if you're in it for the long haul there is no reason to try to time the market by doing all the things you mentioned.
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When you feel this way, you should rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance. Maybe in your case some physical gold makes sense (not any kind of index, actual collectible gold coins). Other hedges are additional income streams via side hustles, selling, or creating new businesses.
Also if you really felt freaked you could try to slash your spending and moderate your risk that way.
Personally I don’t have any options. I’m FIREd, I have a high risk tolerance and I’m gonna ride it out.
"Rebalance your portfolio in accordance with your risk tolerance" sounds like a fancy way of saying try and time the market in a situation like this.
It's not. When the shit hits the fan, investors shouldn't panic. If they do, they have too much risk.
This would be the same as a 1987 crash. If a 22% one day crash keeps you up at night, then you have too much risk.
I agree with that. But if you are rebalancing due to hunches about the market, which is what this thread seems to be about, it just sounds like justifying an attempt to time the market.
Agreed but it's hard to know your limit until it's tested.
A plan to sell when it looks troubling and then buy when the coast is clear is timing the market. A friend tried to do that with covid and missed out on years of gains.
What's more interesting is creating a plan about when to move money if the shit truly hits the fan. If Trump starts ignoring court orders and stacks the fed with TV hosts and uses government powers to take over businesses, then what do you do, if anything?
I think covid is the perfect example. When people moved to safer investments when it became obvious that covid was going to be a big deal, did their risk tolerances change? Or did they just suddenly become aware of a big risk and want to make a change in response? Risk tolerance and presence of risk are not the same thing, and this case being discussed feels similar to me. Many are suddenly aware that there is a big risk in the white house, and they want to suddenly change their "risk tolerance" to accommodate that. I don't think that's what their doing... in reality they are just trying to time the market and trying to justify it.
So your advice to someone already experiencing concerns because of their risk tolerance is to pretend that they aren’t feeling that way, do nothing to balance their portfolio (for example, ADDING hedges, taking some gains, buying some kind of fixed interest asset like CDs or T-bills) and then panic sell when the bottom falls out?
Because if humans didn’t get worried, then panic, we would never experience markets dropping. The entire stock market is an irrational, emotional experience and it’s foolish to pretend otherwise.
Yes, actually... this is my advice and it's the mustachian way. Don't let fears or politics change your ways. Markets will go up and down, but if you're in it for the long haul there is no reason to try to time the market by doing all the things you mentioned.
This is the way.
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As I mentioned upthread, for those of us who are NOT Americans, this has been a reminder to go in and rebalance our portfolios. Given that the US has decided to (economically) attack my country I have consciously reduced my exposure to US assets. It was a good time to do so, because of market runups I had become very overweighted to US equities in particular.
Because of the geopolitical situation where the US is seeking to crush the economy of my country for STUPID reasons, I chose to reduce my US Asset percentage in that rebalancing process. If you guys are going to attack my country and drive my friends, family and neighbours out of work for stupid and self destructive reasons, you won't be doing it with my money.
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The point is not that fears or politics should lead you to time the market. But it is simply bad investment advice to say that "rebalancing" is the same as "timing the market." They are two different things. Ideally you have 1-3 times a year where you make sure your AA is what you want it to be.
It's also bad investment advice to tell someone who's at the edge of panic that they should stay the course. They may heed your advice for a little while. Then they will do something drastic, along with everyone else. That's how the markets go down, really fast.
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As I mentioned upthread, for those of us who are NOT Americans, this has been a reminder to go in and rebalance our portfolios. Given that the US has decided to (economically) attack my country I have consciously reduced my exposure to US assets. It was a good time to do so, because of market runups I had become very overweighted to US equities in particular.
Because of the geopolitical situation where the US is seeking to crush the economy of my country for STUPID reasons, I chose to reduce my US Asset percentage in that rebalancing process. If you guys are going to attack my country and drive my friends, family and neighbours out of work for stupid and self destructive reasons, you won't be doing it with my money.
I'm so sorry about this. I hope this unacceptable aggression blows over but am glad you are taking action. Fear not, many of us are taking action too.
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Straight white men who aren't farmers or government workers should be fine for a little while.
Women no longer have body autonomy in red states (which could be EOd out for women in blue states as well.) They're also considering going after birth control and no fault divorce so we can go back to the "great" days when women were property.
Transgender people no longer have the right to use their passport if it doesn't agree with their birth certificate and have lost their rights to related medical care before age 19.
Medicaid, Medicare, SS, and ACA are in their sights as well. When that happens the poor and middle income folks will be in trouble - even the white males.
Tariffs and deporting immigrants will increase the cost of just about everything. This will affect everybody who isn't wealthy. If the economy comes crashing down from their slash and burn tactics, it will affect all of us.
So just because your life hasn't changed for the worse in the first 3 weeks, you'd have to be pretty naive to think it won't change much in the next 4 years.
It shocks me how many people don’t see the loss of bodily autonomy as a hair-on-fire emergency.
Also it super pisses me off that so many of our noble, moral overlords (the Supreme Court) LIED in their confirmation hearings when asked if they would overturn RvW. RvW should not have been the only protection, and it won’t be.
The labels pro-choice and pro-life are marketing devices that have successfully confused some of the population and alienated others, but it seems more than 60% of Americans are in favor of permitting abortion in either all or most cases. This is not surprising. On many issues the media hypes as partisan the general population is in agreement, usually siding with common sense that considers right and wrong and leans toward protecting individual rights.
The question however is how to translate that into actions that affect law.
The current 2-party democratic system we have has proven incapable of doing this. Continuing the same behaviors and expecting different outcomes is…?
Banning gerrymandering would be a good start. A lot of state legislatures have a majority that is the opposite of their constituents because of gerrymandering. Also ranked choice voting would get rid of the two party stranglehold by allowing people to vote for a third party without feeling like they're taking away from their preferred big 2 candidate. I would also like to see more ballot measures where the people get to make a choice directly instead of going through their legislators.
Agree, these would be great.
Reminds me however of the misguided attack on lobbyists that contends businesses have engaged in “legislative capture”. The fact is the RNC and DNC have captured our legislatures. (Just observe the amount of party-line voting to get an idea of what organizations our elected officials are obeying.) The lead party apparatchiks run a protection racket and demand payments from businesses “or else”. They then demand their elected officials vote for specific laws that benefit the paying marks or they will stop funding to their campaigns and run others against them in the next primary. Extremely effective!
Ridding us of this horror requires that we stop siding and identifying with one party over the other and demand change. This is unlikely however given how many people in America are fully convinced of the goodness of their party over the other. And the fact that each party has fully-functioning media propaganda outlets (Fox, CNN, MSNBC plus print and digital players) makes it even harder.
Gerrymandering is done by the parties and they won’t stop. And true ranked-choice voting—that can result in several members of a single party contending in federal elections—has been squashed by the parties too.
This is a tough slog. (See my salutation.) It is very difficult to find people who even understand the actual problem.
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Banning gerrymandering would be a good start. A lot of state legislatures have a majority that is the opposite of their constituents because of gerrymandering. Also ranked choice voting would get rid of the two party stranglehold by allowing people to vote for a third party without feeling like they're taking away from their preferred big 2 candidate. I would also like to see more ballot measures where the people get to make a choice directly instead of going through their legislators.
In my part of the country this seemed difficult to imagine being ratified by our red state legislator. Now with Trump 2.0 upon us, I think there is a better chance of time travel than our state politicians doing something like this.
How does anyone foster change in this environment.
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Straight white men who aren't farmers or government workers should be fine for a little while.
Women no longer have body autonomy in red states (which could be EOd out for women in blue states as well.) They're also considering going after birth control and no fault divorce so we can go back to the "great" days when women were property.
Transgender people no longer have the right to use their passport if it doesn't agree with their birth certificate and have lost their rights to related medical care before age 19.
Medicaid, Medicare, SS, and ACA are in their sights as well. When that happens the poor and middle income folks will be in trouble - even the white males.
Tariffs and deporting immigrants will increase the cost of just about everything. This will affect everybody who isn't wealthy. If the economy comes crashing down from their slash and burn tactics, it will affect all of us.
So just because your life hasn't changed for the worse in the first 3 weeks, you'd have to be pretty naive to think it won't change much in the next 4 years.
It shocks me how many people don’t see the loss of bodily autonomy as a hair-on-fire emergency.
Also it super pisses me off that so many of our noble, moral overlords (the Supreme Court) LIED in their confirmation hearings when asked if they would overturn RvW. RvW should not have been the only protection, and it won’t be.
The labels pro-choice and pro-life are marketing devices that have successfully confused some of the population and alienated others, but it seems more than 60% of Americans are in favor of permitting abortion in either all or most cases. This is not surprising. On many issues the media hypes as partisan the general population is in agreement, usually siding with common sense that considers right and wrong and leans toward protecting individual rights.
The question however is how to translate that into actions that affect law.
The current 2-party democratic system we have has proven incapable of doing this. Continuing the same behaviors and expecting different outcomes is…?
Banning gerrymandering would be a good start. A lot of state legislatures have a majority that is the opposite of their constituents because of gerrymandering. Also ranked choice voting would get rid of the two party stranglehold by allowing people to vote for a third party without feeling like they're taking away from their preferred big 2 candidate. I would also like to see more ballot measures where the people get to make a choice directly instead of going through their legislators.
Agree, these would be great.
Reminds me however of the misguided attack on lobbyists that contends businesses have engaged in “legislative capture”. The fact is the RNC and DNC have captured our legislatures. (Just observe the amount of party-line voting to get an idea of what organizations our elected officials are obeying.) The lead party apparatchiks run a protection racket and demand payments from businesses “or else”. They then demand their elected officials vote for specific laws that benefit the paying marks or they will stop funding to their campaigns and run others against them in the next primary. Extremely effective!
Ridding us of this horror requires that we stop siding and identifying with one party over the other and demand change. This is unlikely however given how many people in America are fully convinced of the goodness of their party over the other. And the fact that each party has fully-functioning media propaganda outlets (Fox, CNN, MSNBC plus print and digital players) makes it even harder.
Gerrymandering is done by the parties and they won’t stop. And true ranked-choice voting—that can result in several members of a single party contending in federal elections—has been squashed by the parties too.
This is a tough slog. (See my salutation.) It is very difficult to find people who even understand the actual problem.
I agree with you. Humans are hard wired to think in terms of in-group and out-group binary thinking. So the 2 party system leverages that quirk in our code for maximizing power. And they amp it up by playing on our negativity bias.
You can see it in what people call Elon Musk. Most people say fascist or nazi. But in truth he's closer to a techno anarchist. That doesn't fit neatly in to the pre-existing roles defined by the 2 parties.
Edit to add - my personal journey is from being a republican in my 20's and 30's to being a democrat in my 40's and 50's. I think Trump will do a fair bit of damage before he leaves office. But it is certainly not 'the end of democracy'.
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You can see it in what people call Elon Musk. Most people say fascist or nazi. But in truth he's closer to a techno anarchist. That doesn't fit neatly in to the pre-existing roles defined by the 2 parties.
Most Anarchists would be angry if you tell them that.
He is a techno libertarian with racist or very classicist views. (It's often hard to differentiate the 2.) That is a near guarantee to get into Nazism/Fascism. If you think 99% of people are idiots and do not deserve anything...
But it is certainly not 'the end of democracy'.
When, in your eyes, is the "end of democracy"? When they completely ignore all judges (they don't like) or replace them, as they have said they will? When they have kicked out all people who not swear allegiance to Mighty Leader Trump out of government, as they are doing right now? When they allow even less people to vote that have a different opinion, or when they fake elections? Or when the tanks roll?
When is for you the point that democracy ended?
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You can see it in what people call Elon Musk. Most people say fascist or nazi. But in truth he's closer to a techno anarchist. That doesn't fit neatly in to the pre-existing roles defined by the 2 parties.
Most Anarchists would be angry if you tell them that.
He is a techno libertarian with racist or very classicist views. (It's often hard to differentiate the 2.) That is a near guarantee to get into Nazism/Fascism. If you think 99% of people are idiots and do not deserve anything...
But it is certainly not 'the end of democracy'.
When, in your eyes, is the "end of democracy"? When they completely ignore all judges (they don't like) or replace them, as they have said they will? When they have kicked out all people who not swear allegiance to Mighty Leader Trump out of government, as they are doing right now? When they allow even less people to vote that have a different opinion, or when they fake elections? Or when the tanks roll?
When is for you the point that democracy ended?
You think this is the end of democracy in America, and I do not. In 4 year's we'll know for sure. Care to make a bet?
Trump, like it or not, was democratically elected. Calling for his removal would do more to break democracy than anything Trump can do, IMO.
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You can see it in what people call Elon Musk. Most people say fascist or nazi. But in truth he's closer to a techno anarchist. That doesn't fit neatly in to the pre-existing roles defined by the 2 parties.
Most Anarchists would be angry if you tell them that.
He is a techno libertarian with racist or very classicist views. (It's often hard to differentiate the 2.) That is a near guarantee to get into Nazism/Fascism. If you think 99% of people are idiots and do not deserve anything...
But it is certainly not 'the end of democracy'.
When, in your eyes, is the "end of democracy"? When they completely ignore all judges (they don't like) or replace them, as they have said they will? When they have kicked out all people who not swear allegiance to Mighty Leader Trump out of government, as they are doing right now? When they allow even less people to vote that have a different opinion, or when they fake elections? Or when the tanks roll?
When is for you the point that democracy ended?
You think this is the end of democracy in America, and I do not. In 4 year's we'll know for sure. Care to make a bet?
Trump, like it or not, was democratically elected. Calling for his removal would do more to break democracy than anything Trump can do, IMO.
It was a question that Lennstar asked. (bolded)
For you, when would you consider that US democracy has ended? We know that it's not now but when? As Lennstar wrote, would you consider democracy has ended when court rulings are routinely ignored? When US citizens are detained for political views? Where's the line in the sand?
It's something that everyone should ask themselves.
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You can see it in what people call Elon Musk. Most people say fascist or nazi. But in truth he's closer to a techno anarchist. That doesn't fit neatly in to the pre-existing roles defined by the 2 parties.
Most Anarchists would be angry if you tell them that.
He is a techno libertarian with racist or very classicist views. (It's often hard to differentiate the 2.) That is a near guarantee to get into Nazism/Fascism. If you think 99% of people are idiots and do not deserve anything...
But it is certainly not 'the end of democracy'.
When, in your eyes, is the "end of democracy"? When they completely ignore all judges (they don't like) or replace them, as they have said they will? When they have kicked out all people who not swear allegiance to Mighty Leader Trump out of government, as they are doing right now? When they allow even less people to vote that have a different opinion, or when they fake elections? Or when the tanks roll?
When is for you the point that democracy ended?
You think this is the end of democracy in America, and I do not. In 4 year's we'll know for sure. Care to make a bet?
Trump, like it or not, was democratically elected. Calling for his removal would do more to break democracy than anything Trump can do, IMO.
It was a question that Lennstar asked. (bolded)
For you, when would you consider that US democracy has ended? We know that it's not now but when? As Lennstar wrote, would you consider democracy has ended when court rulings are routinely ignored? When US citizens are detained for political views? Where's the line in the sand?
It's something that everyone should ask themselves.
For me it's the transfer of power. If/when we can't get the old people out and the new people in, then democracy has broken.
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In political science, they would say democracy is not a binary characteristic. A democratic government can become less democratic, and still be a democracy. While the broad historical trend in the US has been towards more democracy, there have absolutely been periods of less democracy, and not all of them have been bad. FDR's presidency was certainly a less democratic era, and he accomplished great things.
It makes perfect sense to be pleased with less democracy when it's "our guys" in charge, and displeased with less democracy when it's "the other side," but it's better for the long term health of the union to acknowledge that these things come and go. Nihilistic doomerism is what justifies escalating retaliations and even political violence, which are really the scenarios we want to avoid here.
I think it's fair to say the Democrats veered far away from public opinion in the last 10 years or so in various ways, and it's only the natural outcome of democracy that they would get electorally punished for that. Losses are how democracy disciplines parties to get back in touch with what the public wants. Right now, the public is upset at both parties, so we're going to ping-pong back and forth until one of the parties de-polarizes and actually presents a broadly popular candidate/message again.
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You can see it in what people call Elon Musk. Most people say fascist or nazi. But in truth he's closer to a techno anarchist. That doesn't fit neatly in to the pre-existing roles defined by the 2 parties.
Most Anarchists would be angry if you tell them that.
He is a techno libertarian with racist or very classicist views. (It's often hard to differentiate the 2.) That is a near guarantee to get into Nazism/Fascism. If you think 99% of people are idiots and do not deserve anything...
But it is certainly not 'the end of democracy'.
When, in your eyes, is the "end of democracy"? When they completely ignore all judges (they don't like) or replace them, as they have said they will? When they have kicked out all people who not swear allegiance to Mighty Leader Trump out of government, as they are doing right now? When they allow even less people to vote that have a different opinion, or when they fake elections? Or when the tanks roll?
When is for you the point that democracy ended?
You think this is the end of democracy in America, and I do not. In 4 year's we'll know for sure. Care to make a bet?
Trump, like it or not, was democratically elected. Calling for his removal would do more to break democracy than anything Trump can do, IMO.
It was a question that Lennstar asked. (bolded)
For you, when would you consider that US democracy has ended? We know that it's not now but when? As Lennstar wrote, would you consider democracy has ended when court rulings are routinely ignored? When US citizens are detained for political views? Where's the line in the sand?
It's something that everyone should ask themselves.
For me it's the transfer of power. If/when we can't get the old people out and the new people in, then democracy has broken.
For me it will be if the state Supreme Court let's this guy throw out 65000 ballots after the election he lost. Multiple judges and the election board have told him no but he keeps appealing it and the final decision goes to the court where the seat is contested and which blocked certification of the election until after the appeals are all done.
https://www.wunc.org/politics/2025-02-07/nc-supreme-court-race-riggs-griffin-judge-ruling
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You can see it in what people call Elon Musk. Most people say fascist or nazi. But in truth he's closer to a techno anarchist. That doesn't fit neatly in to the pre-existing roles defined by the 2 parties.
Most Anarchists would be angry if you tell them that.
He is a techno libertarian with racist or very classicist views. (It's often hard to differentiate the 2.) That is a near guarantee to get into Nazism/Fascism. If you think 99% of people are idiots and do not deserve anything...
But it is certainly not 'the end of democracy'.
When, in your eyes, is the "end of democracy"? When they completely ignore all judges (they don't like) or replace them, as they have said they will? When they have kicked out all people who not swear allegiance to Mighty Leader Trump out of government, as they are doing right now? When they allow even less people to vote that have a different opinion, or when they fake elections? Or when the tanks roll?
When is for you the point that democracy ended?
You think this is the end of democracy in America, and I do not. In 4 year's we'll know for sure. Care to make a bet?
Trump, like it or not, was democratically elected. Calling for his removal would do more to break democracy than anything Trump can do, IMO.
It was a question that Lennstar asked. (bolded)
For you, when would you consider that US democracy has ended? We know that it's not now but when? As Lennstar wrote, would you consider democracy has ended when court rulings are routinely ignored? When US citizens are detained for political views? Where's the line in the sand?
It's something that everyone should ask themselves.
For me it's the transfer of power. If/when we can't get the old people out and the new people in, then democracy has broken.
For me it will be if the state Supreme Court let's this guy throw out 65000 ballots after the election he lost. Multiple judges and the election board have told him no but he keeps appealing it and the final decision goes to the court where the seat is contested and which blocked certification of the election until after the appeals are all done.
https://www.wunc.org/politics/2025-02-07/nc-supreme-court-race-riggs-griffin-judge-ruling
Clearly we have different lines in the sand. But let's go with your line, for sake of argument. What exactly is broken in the system and how would you fix it? To me it looks like the right has a majority in this country and they are exercising their power to enact changes they want. You and I might not like those changes but it's all been done within the framework of democratic elections.
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By permission of RWD:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/is-the-market-overpriced/msg3313272/#msg3313272
TL-dr:
over 53 threads implying, worrying about, suggesting or stating market tops/overpricing/bubble and the then-current SP500 prices.
2013 to 2024
Market has mostly gone up since each of the threads.
RWD's list is specifically about the market pricing, but IMO also applies to events that influence or are perceived to influence, the market price.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
-
You can see it in what people call Elon Musk. Most people say fascist or nazi. But in truth he's closer to a techno anarchist. That doesn't fit neatly in to the pre-existing roles defined by the 2 parties.
Most Anarchists would be angry if you tell them that.
He is a techno libertarian with racist or very classicist views. (It's often hard to differentiate the 2.) That is a near guarantee to get into Nazism/Fascism. If you think 99% of people are idiots and do not deserve anything...
But it is certainly not 'the end of democracy'.
When, in your eyes, is the "end of democracy"? When they completely ignore all judges (they don't like) or replace them, as they have said they will? When they have kicked out all people who not swear allegiance to Mighty Leader Trump out of government, as they are doing right now? When they allow even less people to vote that have a different opinion, or when they fake elections? Or when the tanks roll?
When is for you the point that democracy ended?
You think this is the end of democracy in America, and I do not. In 4 year's we'll know for sure. Care to make a bet?
Trump, like it or not, was democratically elected. Calling for his removal would do more to break democracy than anything Trump can do, IMO.
It was a question that Lennstar asked. (bolded)
For you, when would you consider that US democracy has ended? We know that it's not now but when? As Lennstar wrote, would you consider democracy has ended when court rulings are routinely ignored? When US citizens are detained for political views? Where's the line in the sand?
It's something that everyone should ask themselves.
For me it's the transfer of power. If/when we can't get the old people out and the new people in, then democracy has broken.
For me it will be if the state Supreme Court let's this guy throw out 65000 ballots after the election he lost. Multiple judges and the election board have told him no but he keeps appealing it and the final decision goes to the court where the seat is contested and which blocked certification of the election until after the appeals are all done.
https://www.wunc.org/politics/2025-02-07/nc-supreme-court-race-riggs-griffin-judge-ruling
Clearly we have different lines in the sand. But let's go with your line, for sake of argument. What exactly is broken in the system and how would you fix it? To me it looks like the right has a majority in this country and they are exercising their power to enact changes they want. You and I might not like those changes but it's all been done within the framework of democratic elections.
Er, did you not read the article? The right did not have a majority in this case even after two recounts and a lower court ruling. They want to change who is eligible to vote after the election already happened.
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Er, did you not read the article? The right did not have a majority in this case even after two recounts and a lower court ruling. They want to change who is eligible to vote after the election already happened.
I did read it. It's not even something happening at the federal level. It's a state issue happening in NC. Luckily here in the US we have 50 more or less independent states (with some federal oversight). Which means that crap going on in NC has zero bearing on me as I live in CO. This is hardly a threat to democracy. It is not happening in 49 other states and also not happening at the federal level. Meh.
By permission of RWD:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/is-the-market-overpriced/msg3313272/#msg3313272
TL-dr:
over 53 threads implying, worrying about, suggesting or stating market tops/overpricing/bubble and the then-current SP500 prices.
2013 to 2024
Market has mostly gone up since each of the threads.
RWD's list is specifically about the market pricing, but IMO also applies to events that influence or are perceived to influence, the market price.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
Thank you for drawing the parallels. I agree with this completely.
Honestly I'm shocked at how much hand wringing and pearl clutching there is here on the MMM forum. Maybe people need to use MMM's optimism gun a little more.
A forum dedicated (at least in part) to being resourceful and resilient shouldn't go around screaming the sky is falling like a bunch of chicken littles.
-
Er, did you not read the article? The right did not have a majority in this case even after two recounts and a lower court ruling. They want to change who is eligible to vote after the election already happened.
I did read it. It's not even something happening at the federal level. It's a state issue happening in NC. Luckily here in the US we have 50 more or less independent states (with some federal oversight). Which means that crap going on in NC has zero bearing on me as I live in CO. This is hardly a threat to democracy. It is not happening in 49 other states and also not happening at the federal level. Meh.
By permission of RWD:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/is-the-market-overpriced/msg3313272/#msg3313272
TL-dr:
over 53 threads implying, worrying about, suggesting or stating market tops/overpricing/bubble and the then-current SP500 prices.
2013 to 2024
Market has mostly gone up since each of the threads.
RWD's list is specifically about the market pricing, but IMO also applies to events that influence or are perceived to influence, the market price.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
Thank you for drawing the parallels. I agree with this completely.
Honestly I'm shocked at how much hand wringing and pearl clutching there is here on the MMM forum. Maybe people need to use MMM's optimism gun a little more.
A forum dedicated (at least in part) to being resourceful and resilient shouldn't go around screaming the sky is falling like a bunch of chicken littles.
On the other hand, those chicken littles only have to be fully right once :-) Eventially they will be, but at any particular time or event they are unlikely to be correct.
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This craziness feels different than previous world events. When SHOULD one pull out of the stock market? It feels like things could blow up really fast...
How confident are people here feeling about riding this wave specifically in terms of the stock market not crashing?
Pull out, right before you feel like you're going to.........oh wait......
snort
This only works if you're on The Top.
And only if it’s In.
-
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
I guess you hadn't heard, due to military and trade insecurity, they're considering re-joining. Brexit fixed nothing, immigration is up. Did the sky fall? No. Is Russia regularly threatening to nuke London? Yes.
-
By permission of RWD:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/is-the-market-overpriced/msg3313272/#msg3313272
TL-dr:
over 53 threads implying, worrying about, suggesting or stating market tops/overpricing/bubble and the then-current SP500 prices.
2013 to 2024
Market has mostly gone up since each of the threads.
RWD's list is specifically about the market pricing, but IMO also applies to events that influence or are perceived to influence, the market price.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
Yeah, after decade. But we are not asking about a decade here (though some say Trumps action will cause another Great Depression).
If you look at Covid or the Russian attack (more in EU than USA), that was a nice drop. If you sold at the start of the news you might get in back again at -20% or -30%.
The thing is, while this will clearly hurt people, how much will it hurt international companies? I don't think e.g. Microsoft will feel much different until it really gets to be a Hitler II.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
Let's just say it happened more or less what the... less nationalist people expected: The "it will be the same, just that we can decide" was total BS.
Economy is more or less on the lower end of the long time trend, healthcare got even worse and so on. Of course that was not a world end event, and nobody predicted that. But as predicted, life got harder, with some parts of economy hit a lot harder than others.
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Er, did you not read the article? The right did not have a majority in this case even after two recounts and a lower court ruling. They want to change who is eligible to vote after the election already happened.
I did read it. It's not even something happening at the federal level. It's a state issue happening in NC. Luckily here in the US we have 50 more or less independent states (with some federal oversight). Which means that crap going on in NC has zero bearing on me as I live in CO. This is hardly a threat to democracy. It is not happening in 49 other states and also not happening at the federal level. Meh.
Honestly I'm shocked at how much hand wringing and pearl clutching there is here on the MMM forum. Maybe people need to use MMM's optimism gun a little more.
A forum dedicated (at least in part) to being resourceful and resilient shouldn't go around screaming the sky is falling like a bunch of chicken littles.
JFC that was a response to a question about what would make one think one was not living in a democracy, and there's no reason to think they won't try this tactic in other states if they succeed here.
I don't understand why youre singling me out here as a "chicken little" when I have said the market will be fine. I'm not trading in all my index funds for toilet paper or "clutching my pearls" (which is a sexist analogy by th way). I'm sure you'd be just as angry if one of the executive orders caused massive inconvenience or disruption to you or someone you care about, even if the sky isn't falling.
*"Hand wringing " is ablist. It refers to a stim that autistic people sometimes do to calm down. Most people don't know that though.
I am legitimately concerned and angry about my child potentially losing his right to an equal public education and am using my "resourcefulness" to make backup plans accordingly, which could mean moving back to a blue state where I have family and where they are willing to continue special education if the federal government no longer mandates it, or even to another country. I'm in a coastal area with rapidly rising home insurance prices anyway so it probably wouldn't be such a bad idea given the potential loss of federal aid if there is a disaster.
Other people on the forum are worried for the safety of their transgender loved ones, or have friends or relatives who are undocumented, or are being threatened with losing their jobs. There are plenty of logical reasons to be worried.
-
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
I guess you hadn't heard, due to military and trade insecurity, they're considering re-joining. Brexit fixed nothing, immigration is up. Did the sky fall? No. Is Russia regularly threatening to nuke London? Yes.
It was a giant pain in the ass for British citizens living in other countries in Europe. My dad ended up going through the process to become a citizen where he lived since he already had been living and working there for several years and spoke the language well. He had to give up his British citizenship to do so.
-
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
I guess you hadn't heard, due to military and trade insecurity, they're considering re-joining. Brexit fixed nothing, immigration is up. Did the sky fall? No. Is Russia regularly threatening to nuke London? Yes.
It was a giant pain in the ass for British citizens living in other countries in Europe. My dad ended up going through the process to become a citizen where he lived since he already had been living and working there for several years and spoke the language well. He had to give up his British citizenship to do so.
Economically, there's no question at all that Brexit seriously hurt the UK and the average Brit.
https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit (https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit)
-
Rob Bob, Trump has been doing many things that are illegal and not within his authority. Vance is suggesting that they just ignore the courts because there’s no police force to back up the court orders. Musk and his teen squad have downloaded all of our information including any bank accounts that have had deposits from the federal government such as tax returns, etc.
They are putting forward a bill that says women need the same name as their birth certificate to vote. 69% of women can’t meet that requirement. With so many federal workers being fired the government won’t be able to function properly. Trump only wants people in government who are loyal to him. Federal workers take an oath to be loyal to the Constitution. They are going to crash the economy and people will lose their homes. They are trying to suppress free speech and we will be in a dictatorship.
-
By permission of RWD:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/is-the-market-overpriced/msg3313272/#msg3313272
TL-dr:
over 53 threads implying, worrying about, suggesting or stating market tops/overpricing/bubble and the then-current SP500 prices.
2013 to 2024
Market has mostly gone up since each of the threads.
RWD's list is specifically about the market pricing, but IMO also applies to events that influence or are perceived to influence, the market price.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
Especially notable was the "upcoming recession" thread right before the market crash of 2022. RWD also includes several during 2022, when the market was crashing. Failing to distinguish when people were right, from when they weren't, weakens the value of that list.
-
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.........and all that.
-
By permission of RWD:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/is-the-market-overpriced/msg3313272/#msg3313272
TL-dr:
over 53 threads implying, worrying about, suggesting or stating market tops/overpricing/bubble and the then-current SP500 prices.
2013 to 2024
Market has mostly gone up since each of the threads.
RWD's list is specifically about the market pricing, but IMO also applies to events that influence or are perceived to influence, the market price.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
Especially notable was the "upcoming recession" thread right before the market crash of 2022. RWD also includes several during 2022, when the market was crashing. Failing to distinguish when people were right, from when they weren't, weakens the value of that list.
I disagree. The complete list really shows us that yes, some threads called the looming down market accurately, but those threads crop up so often that it's statistically impossible for someone not to have called it by pure chance. The list puts those occasions where someone happened to be right in context and helps me remember not to freak out just because someone on this forum is freaking out.
-
Rob Bob, Trump has been doing many things that are illegal and not within his authority. Vance is suggesting that they just ignore the courts because there’s no police force to back up the court orders. Musk and his teen squad have downloaded all of our information including any bank accounts that have had deposits from the federal government such as tax returns, etc.
They are putting forward a bill that says women need the same name as their birth certificate to vote. 69% of women can’t meet that requirement. With so many federal workers being fired the government won’t be able to function properly. Trump only wants people in government who are loyal to him. Federal workers take an oath to be loyal to the Constitution. They are going to crash the economy and people will lose their homes. They are trying to suppress free speech and we will be in a dictatorship.
I expect people to lose their homes whether or not the market crashes. Public housing is already crumbling from lack of maintenance and there are waiting lists for section 8 vouchers. 2 children died from hypothermia in Detroit last weekend, after the mother had been turned away from multiple shelters. It will happen more often and in more places if HUD funding gets cut. It's like something from Dickens.
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..."clutching my pearls" (which is a sexist analogy by th way)...
*"Hand wringing " is ablist. It refers to a stim that autistic people sometimes do to calm down...
Can we not?
No one has ever been won over by puritanical language policing. It has proven completely useless for its intended purpose of purifying the moral character of society or whatever, and has in fact alienated so many people as to be utterly counter-productive.
-
By permission of RWD:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/is-the-market-overpriced/msg3313272/#msg3313272
TL-dr:
over 53 threads implying, worrying about, suggesting or stating market tops/overpricing/bubble and the then-current SP500 prices.
2013 to 2024
Market has mostly gone up since each of the threads.
RWD's list is specifically about the market pricing, but IMO also applies to events that influence or are perceived to influence, the market price.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
Especially notable was the "upcoming recession" thread right before the market crash of 2022. RWD also includes several during 2022, when the market was crashing. Failing to distinguish when people were right, from when they weren't, weakens the value of that list.
I disagree. The complete list really shows us that yes, some threads called the looming down market accurately, but those threads crop up so often that it's statistically impossible for someone not to have called it by pure chance. The list puts those occasions where someone happened to be right in context and helps me remember not to freak out just because someone on this forum is freaking out.
Agreed. And I'd add that using the word 'crash' for dips in the market is wrong. A 'crash' would indicate damage that is impossible to recover from. A more accurate description would be 'a temporary downturn'. Because downturns are always recovered from. As anyone can see simply by looking at a graph of the S&P500 over the last hundred years.
-
..."clutching my pearls" (which is a sexist analogy by th way)...
*"Hand wringing " is ablist. It refers to a stim that autistic people sometimes do to calm down...
Can we not?
No one has ever been won over by puritanical language policing. It has proven completely useless for its intended purpose of purifying the moral character of society or whatever, and has in fact alienated so many people as to be utterly counter-productive.
Not policing, just informing. I would want to be told if I accidentally used a phrase that is a right wing dog whistle or that derived from a way to make fun of a marginalized group or was somehow derogatory to a group of people. For example I only recently found out that "high brow" and "low brow" when referring to literature originated with phrenology which was a racist pseudoscience so I'll try to not use those any more.
Especially these days where political figures are openly mocking people who are different and going after their civil rights, it doesn't hurt to be a little more thoughtful.
-
..."clutching my pearls" (which is a sexist analogy by th way)...
*"Hand wringing " is ablist. It refers to a stim that autistic people sometimes do to calm down...
Can we not?
No one has ever been won over by puritanical language policing. It has proven completely useless for its intended purpose of purifying the moral character of society or whatever, and has in fact alienated so many people as to be utterly counter-productive.
Not policing, just informing. I would want to be told if I accidentally used a phrase that is a right wing dog whistle or that derived from a way to make fun of a marginalized group or was somehow derogatory to a group of people. For example I only recently found out that "high brow" and "low brow" when referring to literature originated with phrenology which was a racist pseudoscience so I'll try to not use those any more.
Especially these days where political figures are openly mocking people who are different and going after their civil rights, it doesn't hurt to be a little more thoughtful.
Oh, I didn't know the brow one, thanks for sharing!
-
..."clutching my pearls" (which is a sexist analogy by th way)...
*"Hand wringing " is ablist. It refers to a stim that autistic people sometimes do to calm down...
Can we not?
No one has ever been won over by puritanical language policing. It has proven completely useless for its intended purpose of purifying the moral character of society or whatever, and has in fact alienated so many people as to be utterly counter-productive.
Keep going I almost have bingo on hackneyed bullshit phrases
-
By permission of RWD:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/is-the-market-overpriced/msg3313272/#msg3313272
TL-dr:
over 53 threads implying, worrying about, suggesting or stating market tops/overpricing/bubble and the then-current SP500 prices.
2013 to 2024
Market has mostly gone up since each of the threads.
RWD's list is specifically about the market pricing, but IMO also applies to events that influence or are perceived to influence, the market price.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
Especially notable was the "upcoming recession" thread right before the market crash of 2022. RWD also includes several during 2022, when the market was crashing. Failing to distinguish when people were right, from when they weren't, weakens the value of that list.
I disagree. The complete list really shows us that yes, some threads called the looming down market accurately, but those threads crop up so often that it's statistically impossible for someone not to have called it by pure chance. The list puts those occasions where someone happened to be right in context and helps me remember not to freak out just because someone on this forum is freaking out.
Agreed. And I'd add that using the word 'crash' for dips in the market is wrong. A 'crash' would indicate damage that is impossible to recover from. A more accurate description would be 'a temporary downturn'. Because downturns are always recovered from. As anyone can see simply by looking at a graph of the S&P500 over the last hundred years.
I prefer the term "sale". If eggs prices dropped 25% tomorrow, people wouldn't be returning their eggs on suspicion they're not all they're cracked up to be. We know eggs. If you know the companies behind your stocks, you are less likely to panic, and be able to take advantage of situations Mr. Market presents you when he loses his shit.
Or index, and ignore it all while you get on with your life.
-
By permission of RWD:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/is-the-market-overpriced/msg3313272/#msg3313272
TL-dr:
over 53 threads implying, worrying about, suggesting or stating market tops/overpricing/bubble and the then-current SP500 prices.
2013 to 2024
Market has mostly gone up since each of the threads.
RWD's list is specifically about the market pricing, but IMO also applies to events that influence or are perceived to influence, the market price.
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
Especially notable was the "upcoming recession" thread right before the market crash of 2022. RWD also includes several during 2022, when the market was crashing. Failing to distinguish when people were right, from when they weren't, weakens the value of that list.
Would you rather I only cherry-pick threads that make the market look less volatile? The list was never meant to demonstrate "look the market only goes up." It's just interesting data to see the frequency of those types of threads. Regardless of what the market will actually end up doing in the near term there is invariably someone concerned about an imminent crash.
-
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
I guess you hadn't heard, due to military and trade insecurity, they're considering re-joining. Brexit fixed nothing, immigration is up. Did the sky fall? No. Is Russia regularly threatening to nuke London? Yes.
It was a giant pain in the ass for British citizens living in other countries in Europe. My dad ended up going through the process to become a citizen where he lived since he already had been living and working there for several years and spoke the language well. He had to give up his British citizenship to do so.
Economically, there's no question at all that Brexit seriously hurt the UK and the average Brit.
https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit (https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit)
The comment was made in reference to US investors, SP500 specifically.
I forgot that most people here are better informed than basically everybody I know IRL, and that there is a sizable British and Euro contingent here.
Sorry for being a bit dismissive about an issue that did and continues to affect people elsewhere.
In my defense, IRL, Brexit gets a ?Huh?, E.U. gets mistaken for "ee-uu that smells", European Union is something something in Europe (which most might not be able to find on a map).
My first exposure to the then European Communities was in a sermon in a fundamentalist church that compared the EC to the feet of clay and iron of Nebuchadnezzar's dream in Daniel 2:32*. At the time, there were few enough members the number of toes kinda matched :-). Now with 27 members, it is a bit of a harder stretch. It was being pitched as a sign of prophecy, and therefore a sign of the end of times (Rapture, Tribulations etc).
* I had to look that up, as I don't follow that stuff anymore, but apparently made a memorable impact at the time.
-
Anyone remember the end-of-the-world breathless anxiety about Brexit?
I guess you hadn't heard, due to military and trade insecurity, they're considering re-joining. Brexit fixed nothing, immigration is up. Did the sky fall? No. Is Russia regularly threatening to nuke London? Yes.
It was a giant pain in the ass for British citizens living in other countries in Europe. My dad ended up going through the process to become a citizen where he lived since he already had been living and working there for several years and spoke the language well. He had to give up his British citizenship to do so.
Economically, there's no question at all that Brexit seriously hurt the UK and the average Brit.
https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit (https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit)
The comment was made in reference to US investors, SP500 specifically.
I forgot that most people here are better informed than basically everybody I know IRL, and that there is a sizable British and Euro contingent here.
Sorry for being a bit dismissive about an issue that did and continues to affect people elsewhere.
In my defense, IRL, Brexit gets a ?Huh?, E.U. gets mistaken for "ee-uu that smells", European Union is something something in Europe (which most might not be able to find on a map).
My first exposure to the then European Communities was in a sermon in a fundamentalist church that compared the EC to the feet of clay and iron of Nebuchadnezzar's dream in Daniel 2:32*. At the time, there were few enough members the number of toes kinda matched :-). Now with 27 members, it is a bit of a harder stretch. It was being pitched as a sign of prophecy, and therefore a sign of the end of times (Rapture, Tribulations etc).
* I had to look that up, as I don't follow that stuff anymore, but apparently made a memorable impact at the time.
Maybe RWD should start another thread documenting every time a religious end time prediction has failed. That would be epic (and hilarious).
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It was being pitched as a sign of prophecy, and therefore a sign of the end of times (Rapture, Tribulations etc).
Maybe RWD should start another thread documenting every time a religious end time prediction has failed. That would be epic (and hilarious).
Nah, I'm good...
-
..."clutching my pearls" (which is a sexist analogy by th way)...
*"Hand wringing " is ablist. It refers to a stim that autistic people sometimes do to calm down...
Can we not?
No one has ever been won over by puritanical language policing. It has proven completely useless for its intended purpose of purifying the moral character of society or whatever, and has in fact alienated so many people as to be utterly counter-productive.
Just because someone has once used a common phrase in a racist, sexist or ableist fashion, we should not therefore assume the phrase is forever tainted.
Wrong on both counts, according to random internet searches:
Hand wringing:
Recent Examples on the Web
Examples are automatically compiled from online sources to show current usage. Opinions expressed in the examples do not represent those of Merriam-Webster or its editors. Send us feedback.
There was a fair bit of hand-wringing entering Tuesday’s contest about where or if Jeff Skinner fit into the equation.
—Daniel Nugent-Bowman, The Athletic, 31 Dec. 2024
While hand-wringing Democrats and the media have focused on President Biden, Donald Trump met with Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister.
—Letters To The Editor, The Mercury News, 18 July 2024
Please, no more contrived hand-wringing and pearl-clutching about the Trump dictatorship.
—Sun Sentinel Editorial Board, Sun Sentinel, 4 July 2024
Since last Monday, when Buckingham Palace announced that King Charles III had been diagnosed with cancer, the seventy-five-year-old monarch has been the subject of both hand-wringing concern and frenzied speculation.
—Anna Russell, The New Yorker, 12 Feb. 2024
Today, that hand-wringing delay has been nearly eliminated.
—Katie Palmer, STAT, 1 Dec. 2023
The combination of the new stadium, hand-wringing fans and — worst of all — disinterested indifference in the community has ripple effects beyond one locker room.
—Bryce Miller, San Diego Union-Tribune, 13 Nov. 2023
Both episodes benefit from a curiosity about human nature that goes beyond hand-wringing monologues about our capacity for greed or complacency, and an affection for people in all our absurd and messy glory.
—Angie Han, The Hollywood Reporter, 15 Mar. 2023
For all the hand-wringing Kidd does about getting his team back together, Doncic has played in 57 of 69 games.
—Tim Cowlishaw, Dallas News, 14 Mar. 2023
Pearl Clutching:
Pearl-clutching refers to a very shocked reaction, especially one in which you show more shock than you really feel in order to demonstrate that you think something is morally wrong. It can also be used to describe outrage or dramatic protest, especially from a woman, caused by something perceived as vulgar, in bad taste, or morally wrong.
cambridge.org+1
2 Sources
-
I did some more dirty market timing to boost my liquid cash stash a bit more, including:
Selling a few more shares of EBAY -- this time I did it through an order to sell when it hit my target price ($70), which it did on Friday. My plan is to divest myself of it entirely over the next couple of years, as it was not something I bought myself (TheX bought it way back in 1999/2000) and I think it has run its course with so much more localized competition through FB Marketplace, etc. I think I'll put in another order to sell a few more shares if it hits something above the highest 12 month price (currently $71.52) before the end of the month. Thinking maybe $75? If it doesn't hit that now, I can always wait. I have a pretty high level of capital gains on it so need to space out the timing on harvesting those anyway.
Also sold a bit more FZROX, since the price is still decently high. Maybe it will be higher later, maybe not. At least now I have locked in some significant gains (I'm pushing $10/share) and have a bit more cash to float on while the world dissolves...
-
..."clutching my pearls" (which is a sexist analogy by th way)...
*"Hand wringing " is ablist. It refers to a stim that autistic people sometimes do to calm down...
Can we not?
No one has ever been won over by puritanical language policing. It has proven completely useless for its intended purpose of purifying the moral character of society or whatever, and has in fact alienated so many people as to be utterly counter-productive.
Just because someone has once used a common phrase in a racist, sexist or ableist fashion, we should not therefore assume the phrase is forever tainted.
Wrong on both counts, according to random internet searches:
Hand wringing:
Recent Examples on the Web
Examples are automatically compiled from online sources to show current usage. Opinions expressed in the examples do not represent those of Merriam-Webster or its editors. Send us feedback.
There was a fair bit of hand-wringing entering Tuesday’s contest about where or if Jeff Skinner fit into the equation.
—Daniel Nugent-Bowman, The Athletic, 31 Dec. 2024
While hand-wringing Democrats and the media have focused on President Biden, Donald Trump met with Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister.
—Letters To The Editor, The Mercury News, 18 July 2024
Please, no more contrived hand-wringing and pearl-clutching about the Trump dictatorship.
—Sun Sentinel Editorial Board, Sun Sentinel, 4 July 2024
Since last Monday, when Buckingham Palace announced that King Charles III had been diagnosed with cancer, the seventy-five-year-old monarch has been the subject of both hand-wringing concern and frenzied speculation.
—Anna Russell, The New Yorker, 12 Feb. 2024
Today, that hand-wringing delay has been nearly eliminated.
—Katie Palmer, STAT, 1 Dec. 2023
The combination of the new stadium, hand-wringing fans and — worst of all — disinterested indifference in the community has ripple effects beyond one locker room.
—Bryce Miller, San Diego Union-Tribune, 13 Nov. 2023
Both episodes benefit from a curiosity about human nature that goes beyond hand-wringing monologues about our capacity for greed or complacency, and an affection for people in all our absurd and messy glory.
—Angie Han, The Hollywood Reporter, 15 Mar. 2023
For all the hand-wringing Kidd does about getting his team back together, Doncic has played in 57 of 69 games.
—Tim Cowlishaw, Dallas News, 14 Mar. 2023
Pearl Clutching:
Pearl-clutching refers to a very shocked reaction, especially one in which you show more shock than you really feel in order to demonstrate that you think something is morally wrong. It can also be used to describe outrage or dramatic protest, especially from a woman, caused by something perceived as vulgar, in bad taste, or morally wrong.
cambridge.org+1
2 Sources
I'm aware of the common figurative use for "hand wringing ". I've also never seen someone actually wring their hands unless they had some sort of neurological disorder. It used to be quite fashionable to insult people by comparing them to people with disabilities (for example, "dumb" used to mean a nonverbal person, and "spaz" was common millennial slang until fairly recently. I'm pretty sure I've seen "hand wringing" on a list of those but can't remember where and the first page of google is showing me the same links you posted). Even if I'm wrong about the origin I still think it's rude and dismissive.
Pearl clutching still sounds pretty sexist.
If you look at my whole post instead of the little clip that was posted later , you can see I was more annoyed about the dismissiveness of the accusations than the actual words used. I haven't observed anyone acting overly dramatic or shocked.
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I'm aware of the common figurative use for "hand wringing ". I've also never seen someone actually wring their hands unless they had some sort of neurological disorder. It used to be quite fashionable to insult people by comparing them to people with disabilities (for example, "dumb" used to mean a nonverbal person, and "spaz" was common millennial slang until fairly recently. I'm pretty sure I've seen "hand wringing" on a list of those but can't remember where and the first page of google is showing me the same links you posted). Even if I'm wrong about the origin I still think it's rude and dismissive.
Pearl clutching still sounds pretty sexist.
If you look at my whole post instead of the little clip that was posted later , you can see I was more annoyed about the dismissiveness of the accusations than the actual words used. I haven't observed anyone acting overly dramatic or shocked.
I was the one that used those terms. I used hand wringing for the men and pearl clutching for the women. I don't think that makes me sexist since I'm calling to account both sexes equally.
Is there a list of 'you're an asshole if you use these terms' somewhere? If so, please link it and I'll avoid using those terms in the future. For the present, I apologize to any autistic people that were exposed to my comments about hand wringing.
I do find it amusing that the person (me) telling people to calm down and that things are going to be OK is the one that gets attacked.
My suspicion is that it's an example of displaced aggression. To whit, there's a broader change happening politically, people are pissed, they don't have any ability to make any real changes to that broader environment, so instead they come here to the MMM community where they make themselves feel better by attacking people that tell them they might be over reacting.
Re: being overly dramatic, you don't think an entire thread entitled "Is this bigger than a don't try and time the market event' is not overly dramatic? The very question in the title implies that it's WAY WAY WAY worse than the worst thing that's ever happened in history. So yeah, overly dramatic, from the very start.
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I'm aware of the common figurative use for "hand wringing ". I've also never seen someone actually wring their hands unless they had some sort of neurological disorder. It used to be quite fashionable to insult people by comparing them to people with disabilities (for example, "dumb" used to mean a nonverbal person, and "spaz" was common millennial slang until fairly recently. I'm pretty sure I've seen "hand wringing" on a list of those but can't remember where and the first page of google is showing me the same links you posted). Even if I'm wrong about the origin I still think it's rude and dismissive.
Pearl clutching still sounds pretty sexist.
If you look at my whole post instead of the little clip that was posted later , you can see I was more annoyed about the dismissiveness of the accusations than the actual words used. I haven't observed anyone acting overly dramatic or shocked.
I was the one that used those terms. I used hand wringing for the men and pearl clutching for the women. I don't think that makes me sexist since I'm calling to account both sexes equally.
Is there a list of 'you're an asshole if you use these terms' somewhere? If so, please link it and I'll avoid using those terms in the future. For the present, I apologize to any autistic people that were exposed to my comments about hand wringing.
I do find it amusing that the person (me) telling people to calm down and that things are going to be OK is the one that gets attacked.
My suspicion is that it's an example of displaced aggression. To whit, there's a broader change happening politically, people are pissed, they don't have any ability to make any real changes to that broader environment, so instead they come here to the MMM community where they make themselves feel better by attacking people that tell them they might be over reacting.
Re: being overly dramatic, you don't think an entire thread entitled "Is this bigger than a don't try and time the market event' is not overly dramatic? The very question in the title implies that it's WAY WAY WAY worse than the worst thing that's ever happened in history. So yeah, overly dramatic, from the very start.
Oh hey, thanks for your civil reply. I'm sorry about the digression. I think people have a good reason to be pissed about all sorts of things right now, and may not be able to express that anywhere in real life. It's hard to know people's specific situations and how soon and to what extent they'll be affected by the changes, plus its hard to keep up with everything happening so fast, so I would be more careful of dismissing real concerns . It does seem like there is a current of denial in this thread and others coming from multiple people. Plus nobody likes to be told to calm down.
The thread title is hyperbolic but not any more so than most news headlines.
This is the most comprehensive list I can find:
https://www.autistichoya.com/p/ableist-words-and-terms-to-avoid.html
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I'm aware of the common figurative use for "hand wringing ". I've also never seen someone actually wring their hands unless they had some sort of neurological disorder. It used to be quite fashionable to insult people by comparing them to people with disabilities (for example, "dumb" used to mean a nonverbal person, and "spaz" was common millennial slang until fairly recently. I'm pretty sure I've seen "hand wringing" on a list of those but can't remember where and the first page of google is showing me the same links you posted). Even if I'm wrong about the origin I still think it's rude and dismissive.
Pearl clutching still sounds pretty sexist.
If you look at my whole post instead of the little clip that was posted later , you can see I was more annoyed about the dismissiveness of the accusations than the actual words used. I haven't observed anyone acting overly dramatic or shocked.
I was the one that used those terms. I used hand wringing for the men and pearl clutching for the women. I don't think that makes me sexist since I'm calling to account both sexes equally.
Is there a list of 'you're an asshole if you use these terms' somewhere? If so, please link it and I'll avoid using those terms in the future. For the present, I apologize to any autistic people that were exposed to my comments about hand wringing.
I do find it amusing that the person (me) telling people to calm down and that things are going to be OK is the one that gets attacked.
My suspicion is that it's an example of displaced aggression. To whit, there's a broader change happening politically, people are pissed, they don't have any ability to make any real changes to that broader environment, so instead they come here to the MMM community where they make themselves feel better by attacking people that tell them they might be over reacting.
Re: being overly dramatic, you don't think an entire thread entitled "Is this bigger than a don't try and time the market event' is not overly dramatic? The very question in the title implies that it's WAY WAY WAY worse than the worst thing that's ever happened in history. So yeah, overly dramatic, from the very start.
Oh hey, thanks for your civil reply. I'm sorry about the digression. I think people have a good reason to be pissed about all sorts of things right now, and may not be able to express that anywhere in real life. It's hard to know people's specific situations and how soon and to what extent they'll be affected by the changes, plus its hard to keep up with everything happening so fast, so I would be more careful of dismissing real concerns . It does seem like there is a current of denial in this thread and others coming from multiple people. Plus nobody likes to be told to calm down.
The thread title is hyperbolic but not any more so than most news headlines.
This is the most comprehensive list I can find:
https://www.autistichoya.com/p/ableist-words-and-terms-to-avoid.html
Thanks for the list, I appreciate that.
Re: things changing quickly and not necessarily for the better, I have had many conversations about this with my son (who is trans and thus at higher risk than many). One of the big differences between the parties is that republicans are much more about states-rights and enabling the states to have power to make whatever changes they want, while democrats are much more concerned with establishing laws at the federal level, that apply to everyone equally.
With the republicans in charge, we can expect to see a lot of changes empowering the states. If you are trans and happen to live in a red state, things are going to get worse and quickly. But there's a silver lining. If you happen to live in a blue state, the blue states now have even MORE power to put in protections, at the state level. Luckily we live in Colorado which has turned firmly blue in the last couple decades.
If we happened to live in a red state, we would move to a blue state as quickly as we could.
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you don't think an entire thread entitled "Is this bigger than a don't try and time the market event' is not overly dramatic?
I don’t. Now to be clear, I’m not trying to time the market. I don’t think I know if it will go up or down. But my family, within just a few generations, has had to flee dictatorships with capital controls from two different countries. So you’ll forgive my skepticism that it can’t happen here. I will say that black swans happen and the country is currently on the precipice controlled by a mercurial nut job. If you don’t see how this is different from any US scenario in living memory, then you simply haven’t been paying attention.
Will the stock market go up? Probably. I’m not betting my fortune on a crash. But there are also a dozen things that can happen to blow up the market, and I don’t think “billionaires won’t let that happen” is a credible response.
But short term market direction is not the point. The point is that this is bigger than market timing. This is an existential threat for some that, yes, may turn out fine, but also may not. Is that dramatic? Probably. But it’s not overly dramatic . It’s dramatic to the degree warranted by current events.
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you don't think an entire thread entitled "Is this bigger than a don't try and time the market event' is not overly dramatic?
I don’t. Now to be clear, I’m not trying to time the market. I don’t think I know if it will go up or down. But my family, within just a few generations, has had to flee dictatorships with capital controls from two different countries. So you’ll forgive my skepticism that it can’t happen here. I will say that black swans happen and the country is currently on the precipice controlled by a mercurial nut job. If you don’t see how this is different from any US scenario in living memory, then you simply haven’t been paying attention.
Will the stock market go up? Probably. I’m not betting my fortune on a crash. But there are also a dozen things that can happen to blow up the market, and I don’t think “billionaires won’t let that happen” is a credible response.
But short term market direction is not the point. The point is that this is bigger than market timing. This is an existential threat for some that, yes, may turn out fine, but also may not. Is that dramatic? Probably. But it’s not overly dramatic . It’s dramatic to the degree warranted by current events.
Are you and your family preparing to flee the USA?
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If need be. Could go many ways
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But my family, within just a few generations, has had to flee dictatorships with capital controls from two different countries. So you’ll forgive my skepticism that it can’t happen here. I will say that black swans happen and the country is currently on the precipice controlled by a mercurial nut job. If you don’t see how this is different from any US scenario in living memory, then you simply haven’t been paying attention.
Similar here. My grandmother barely made it out before the iron curtain fell. She didn't see her sister again for 40 years.
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I wish I could be as sanguine as you, @Tyson , though I do appreciate reading alternate takes on the current situation. The “states’ rights” defense, for example, doesn’t quite square with some states offering bounties for catching women who have sought abortion in other states, among many other things.
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I wish I could be as sanguine as you, @Tyson , though I do appreciate reading alternate takes on the current situation. The “states’ rights” defense, for example, doesn’t quite square with some states offering bounties for catching women who have sought abortion in other states, among many other things.
I feel lucky that my son and I live in a good state.
Re: being sanguine, it's a choice. I could be freaked out and on my guard for the next 4 years. But I just don't want every day have a cloud hanging over it because of who the president is. I used to be like that and I suffered a lot of anxiety and I'm just not willing to lose another 4 years of my life like that.
The truth is, in my personal life, this past year has been amazing. I feel grateful and happy. I've built an incredible relationship with my son, I'm really happy in my job and am locked in to some great hobbies and I've met some new friends. i'm not willing to sacrifice one ounce of my sense of joy. I worked too hard to earn it and I'm not going to give away my happiness.
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I wish I could be as sanguine as you, @Tyson , though I do appreciate reading alternate takes on the current situation. The “states’ rights” defense, for example, doesn’t quite square with some states offering bounties for catching women who have sought abortion in other states, among many other things.
I feel lucky that my son and I live in a good state.
Re: being sanguine, it's a choice. I could be freaked out and on my guard for the next 4 years. But I just don't want every day have a cloud hanging over it because of who the president is. I used to be like that and I suffered a lot of anxiety and I'm just not willing to lose another 4 years of my life like that.
The truth is, in my personal life, this past year has been amazing. I feel grateful and happy. I've built an incredible relationship with my son, I'm really happy in my job and am locked in to some great hobbies and I've met some new friends. i'm not willing to sacrifice one ounce of my sense of joy. I worked too hard to earn it and I'm not going to give away my happiness.
Interestingly, I feel the same way. My personal life is going great. However, it's in my nature -- as someone who's curious about how things work, who likes to be prepared, to keep my family and community safe, and to survive difficult challenges -- to watch this situation with some concern. I'm not sacrificing any of my personal joy by doing this, but I agree that we shouldn't allow this stuff to poison our own lives.
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I'm aware of the common figurative use for "hand wringing ". I've also never seen someone actually wring their hands unless they had some sort of neurological disorder. It used to be quite fashionable to insult people by comparing them to people with disabilities (for example, "dumb" used to mean a nonverbal person, and "spaz" was common millennial slang until fairly recently. I'm pretty sure I've seen "hand wringing" on a list of those but can't remember where and the first page of google is showing me the same links you posted). Even if I'm wrong about the origin I still think it's rude and dismissive.
Pearl clutching still sounds pretty sexist.
If you look at my whole post instead of the little clip that was posted later , you can see I was more annoyed about the dismissiveness of the accusations than the actual words used. I haven't observed anyone acting overly dramatic or shocked.
I was the one that used those terms. I used hand wringing for the men and pearl clutching for the women. I don't think that makes me sexist since I'm calling to account both sexes equally.
Is there a list of 'you're an asshole if you use these terms' somewhere? If so, please link it and I'll avoid using those terms in the future. For the present, I apologize to any autistic people that were exposed to my comments about hand wringing.
I do find it amusing that the person (me) telling people to calm down and that things are going to be OK is the one that gets attacked.
My suspicion is that it's an example of displaced aggression. To whit, there's a broader change happening politically, people are pissed, they don't have any ability to make any real changes to that broader environment, so instead they come here to the MMM community where they make themselves feel better by attacking people that tell them they might be over reacting.
Re: being overly dramatic, you don't think an entire thread entitled "Is this bigger than a don't try and time the market event' is not overly dramatic? The very question in the title implies that it's WAY WAY WAY worse than the worst thing that's ever happened in history. So yeah, overly dramatic, from the very start.
Oh hey, thanks for your civil reply. I'm sorry about the digression. I think people have a good reason to be pissed about all sorts of things right now, and may not be able to express that anywhere in real life. It's hard to know people's specific situations and how soon and to what extent they'll be affected by the changes, plus its hard to keep up with everything happening so fast, so I would be more careful of dismissing real concerns . It does seem like there is a current of denial in this thread and others coming from multiple people. Plus nobody likes to be told to calm down.
The thread title is hyperbolic but not any more so than most news headlines.
This is the most comprehensive list I can find:
https://www.autistichoya.com/p/ableist-words-and-terms-to-avoid.html
Thanks for the list, I appreciate that.
Re: things changing quickly and not necessarily for the better, I have had many conversations about this with my son (who is trans and thus at higher risk than many). One of the big differences between the parties is that republicans are much more about states-rights and enabling the states to have power to make whatever changes they want, while democrats are much more concerned with establishing laws at the federal level, that apply to everyone equally.
With the republicans in charge, we can expect to see a lot of changes empowering the states. If you are trans and happen to live in a red state, things are going to get worse and quickly. But there's a silver lining. If you happen to live in a blue state, the blue states now have even MORE power to put in protections, at the state level. Luckily we live in Colorado which has turned firmly blue in the last couple decades.
If we happened to live in a red state, we would move to a blue state as quickly as we could.
Except Republicans being for states’ rights really isn’t true. Especially this administration.
https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/trumps-attempt-to-unilaterally-control-state-and-local-funding-is-dangerous-dumb-and-undemocratic
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Of course the US market will at some point lose its dominance, I believe. The problem is, exiting the US market and joining another one is also a “timing the market” choice.
In the past hundred years some countries’ markets have outperformed the US market. This was true following WW2 as Europe was spending heavily to rebuild, and in countries that industrialized later in the 20th century, e.g., China.
The EU will likely have to deregulate and shift spending toward the military going forward, and China seems to be headed in self-defeating social/economic/political directions because totalitarian communism is a bitch. Russia is a basket case. Africa is being raped. SA? Not feeling it. Middle East? Maybe, maybe not—that area yo-yo’s too much to instill investor confidence.
I guess I don’t see US markets being surpassed much during our lifetimes. (About 2% of my equity holdings are ex-US.)
Do you think I’m getting this wrong? Always willing to reconsider.
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Re: being sanguine, it's a choice. I could be freaked out and on my guard for the next 4 years. But I just don't want every day have a cloud hanging over it because of who the president is.
We're surrounded by Trump supporters. Not prepared to take a stand on anything b/c it could cost me my job and by extension our home, etc. Also not charismatic enough to change minds without causing problems for myself.
We could move but we're finally approaching retirement in a few years. I don't want to start all over somewhere else or move for that matter. We really like where we live.
That's why I want all of Trump/Musk's BS to hurt his voters a little so perhaps, they will see and understand what the rest of us already know. Not ready for them to "burn it all down" but I would like to see some correctable FUBAR situations that stop the money flowing to his supporters for a while.
I believe my farmer friend is already feeling the pinch. There are some retirees I would like to see feel the hurt too for a while but they'd prob hand wave it all away saying something like "well it takes time to fix what's broken". Stopping SS payments would hurt alot of low income people in the process and that's not okay. One person we know specifically exists solely on SS payments.
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Of course the US market will at some point lose its dominance, I believe. The problem is, exiting the US market and joining another one is also a “timing the market” choice.
In the past hundred years some countries’ markets have outperformed the US market. This was true following WW2 as Europe was spending heavily to rebuild, and in countries that industrialized later in the 20th century, e.g., China.
The EU will likely have to deregulate and shift spending toward the military going forward, and China seems to be headed in self-defeating social/economic/political directions because totalitarian communism is a bitch. Russia is a basket case. Africa is being raped. SA? Not feeling it. Middle East? Maybe, maybe not—that area yo-yo’s too much to instill investor confidence.
I guess I don’t see US markets being surpassed much during our lifetimes. (About 2% of my equity holdings are ex-US.)
Do you think I’m getting this wrong? Always willing to reconsider.
I have no fucking idea. That's why my equities contain a hefty chunk of both US and international stocks.
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2% non-US is certainly not enough for any resemblance of balance or risk split. Personally I go with about 40%-50% US - and that includes all those MegaCorps like Apple who are not really dependend on the US (and might actually profit from Trump rules).
IMHO you should not put more than 50% in any big economy area, be it North America, Europe or Asia.
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Re: being sanguine, it's a choice. I could be freaked out and on my guard for the next 4 years. But I just don't want every day have a cloud hanging over it because of who the president is.
We're surrounded by Trump supporters. Not prepared to take a stand on anything b/c it could cost me my job and by extension our home, etc. Also not charismatic enough to change minds without causing problems for myself.
We could move but we're finally approaching retirement in a few years. I don't want to start all over somewhere else or move for that matter. We really like where we live.
That's why I want all of Trump/Musk's BS to hurt his voters a little so perhaps, they will see and understand what the rest of us already know. Not ready for them to "burn it all down" but I would like to see some correctable FUBAR situations that stop the money flowing to his supporters for a while.
I believe my farmer friend is already feeling the pinch. There are some retirees I would like to see feel the hurt too for a while but they'd prob hand wave it all away saying something like "well it takes time to fix what's broken". Stopping SS payments would hurt alot of low income people in the process and that's not okay. One person we know specifically exists solely on SS payments.
My parents are Southern, rural Trump voters who depend on the VA for healthcare, are wait-listed for senior services like meals on wheels and home health visits, and whose only income is SS (with a little help from the kids). Unfortunately, if they no longer have SS and the VA, it falls on us (and none of us voted for Trump). It's frustrating. I don't think SS will go away, but I do think there's a real risk of impact to the VA from cuts there in staffing, even if not in overall funding, and I would not be surprised if other senior services are cut. Idk whether or not they will see this as a direct consequence of their votes, but we surely will.
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Of course the US market will at some point lose its dominance, I believe. The problem is, exiting the US market and joining another one is also a “timing the market” choice.
In the past hundred years some countries’ markets have outperformed the US market. This was true following WW2 as Europe was spending heavily to rebuild, and in countries that industrialized later in the 20th century, e.g., China.
The EU will likely have to deregulate and shift spending toward the military going forward, and China seems to be headed in self-defeating social/economic/political directions because totalitarian communism is a bitch. Russia is a basket case. Africa is being raped. SA? Not feeling it. Middle East? Maybe, maybe not—that area yo-yo’s too much to instill investor confidence.
I guess I don’t see US markets being surpassed much during our lifetimes. (About 2% of my equity holdings are ex-US.)
Do you think I’m getting this wrong? Always willing to reconsider.
I have no fucking idea. That's why my equities contain a hefty chunk of both US and international stocks.
2% non-US is certainly not enough for any resemblance of balance or risk split. Personally I go with about 40%-50% US - and that includes all those MegaCorps like Apple who are not really dependend on the US (and might actually profit from Trump rules).
IMHO you should not put more than 50% in any big economy area, be it North America, Europe or Asia.
I think if I lived outside the US as you guys do I’d be putting a big chuck of my equities into US stocks—but certainly not all!
There are MANY US investors that diversify into the EU, Asia, etc. too—and all the big brokerage houses will suggest you do when asked. I just don’t think it benefits us too much to do that.
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This thread really has me thinking. We need red lines, that, if violated, would indicate that the US stock markets or US economy no longer resemble the economy our backtests are based on. These would have to be major structural changes that would make the US more like the foreign economies we just habitually don't use for backtesting.
For example, a rethink of our mantras might be reasonable if policies were enacted that
(a) could cause a great depression scenario, or
(b) could cause hyperinflation, or
(c) could cause political violence and instability that would affect business operations or demand, or
(d) start a major war that the US would lose, or
(e) significantly reduce the US's standing in the Democracy Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index) or the Corruption Index (https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023).
Obviously, the U.S. has historically excelled in all these areas. We had policies that prevented recessions from turning into depressions or inflation from turning into hyperinflation. We had democratic systems, independent media, and civic society that prevented political instability and kept disagreements and reform within the boundaries of political activism. We had the invincible NATO alliance and the financial depth to fight wars for decades if we thought necessary. Finally, we were in the top 20 list of democracies and bottom 20 in terms of corruption.
But that was history. If we cite these reasons for why the US's historical performance enabled a 4% SWR, while the SWR in many other countries was much higher, then it only makes sense that the removal of these reasons might justify either a much lower SWR estimate or a "rebalancing" toward countries that exhibit higher stability and growth potential. It's not that the U.S. is inherently a great place to invest because of its name or whatever, it's that the U.S. was doing the right things to make it a great place to invest for most of the last 150 years.
In other words, we'd edit our "B&H in the USA" mantra to "B&H in stable democracies with low corruption" and if the U.S. failed that test we'd end up looking abroad. If we found few opportunities, or the opportunities were more concentrated, then maybe a more bond-centric, USD-avoidant portfolio would be a better bet.
So, back to red lines. For me, the following might trigger a significant move away from U.S. equity and currency risk.
RED LINES:
*The US treasury takes on debt to buy cryptocurrency, in an obvious pump and dump scheme
*The Congressional Budget Office is abolished, neutralized, or packed with cronies.
*Ten independent journalists are jailed for criticizing the regime.
*The Constitution is changed to enable Trump to run for a third term, or for Musk to run for president.
*Social Security is significantly cut, defined as a 10% reduction in payments OR an end to inflation indexing.
*Medicaid or Medicare are significantly cut, defined as a 20% reduction in spending.
*Government data sources such as the BEA, BLS, or Federal Reserve Banks either stop reporting key data series OR are politically influenced so that the data are not considered credible by a significant number (20%) of economists who previously considered them credible.
*The US government attempts to unilaterally cancel treasury debts to a non-governmental bondholder.
*The projected US federal deficit surpasses 15% of GDP in the absence of a recession, or 25% during a recession.
*The US enters a military conflict with China.
*Compulsory primary and secondary education is ended OR most public schools are privatized/closed.
*The government attempts to switch back to an asset-based currency system (https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf#page=769), such as a gold-standard or crypto-standard.
*Three or more state universities are shuttered due to funding being cut off.
*The Federal Reserve cuts rates in an inflationary environment due to political pressure, or disengages from rate-setting.
*The executive branch ignores a clear ruling from the Supreme Court.
*The SEC or FDIC are abolished, gutted, or limited.
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The red line was already crossed with the Jan 6 insurrection.
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The red line was already crossed with the Jan 6 insurrection.
I disagree. It was scary and horrible, but the response was appropriate, at least for four years. The blanket pardon of Jan 6 rioters is a much more defensible red line, IMO.
ETA: And to be clear, I'm not treating it as one in this context; I'm still fully invested in the stock market.
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RED LINES:
*The US treasury takes on debt to buy cryptocurrency, in an obvious pump and dump scheme
*The Congressional Budget Office is abolished, neutralized, or packed with cronies.
*Ten independent journalists are jailed for criticizing the regime.
*The Constitution is changed to enable Trump to run for a third term, or for Musk to run for president.
*Social Security is significantly cut, defined as a 10% reduction in payments OR an end to inflation indexing.
*Medicaid or Medicare are significantly cut, defined as a 20% reduction in spending.
*Government data sources such as the BEA, BLS, or Federal Reserve Banks either stop reporting key data series OR are politically influenced so that the data are not considered credible by a significant number (20%) of economists who previously considered them credible.
*The US government attempts to unilaterally cancel treasury debts to a non-governmental bondholder.
*The projected US federal deficit surpasses 15% of GDP in the absence of a recession, or 25% during a recession.
*The US enters a military conflict with China.
*Compulsory primary and secondary education is ended OR most public schools are privatized/closed.
*The government attempts to switch back to an asset-based currency system (https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf#page=769), such as a gold-standard or crypto-standard.
*Three or more state universities are shuttered due to funding being cut off.
*The Federal Reserve cuts rates in an inflationary environment due to political pressure, or disengages from rate-setting.
*The executive branch ignores a clear ruling from the Supreme Court.
*The SEC or FDIC are abolished, gutted, or limited.
* A rich unelected man is given full control of determining how government spending should be made, effectively usurping the power of congress. Courts are unwilling or unable to reign in this man.
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The "Red Line" was crossed for me in 2000 when the Supreme Court ordered the State of Florida to stop the lawful recount of the votes, handing the presidency to Bush: a decision so bad that even it's authors warned it should never be duplicated or used as a precedent.
Coincidentally (!), three current SC justices worked on the legal team representing Bush: Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Coney Barret.
Also, Roger Stone organized a fake riot of white men cosplaying as lawyers to pressure the courts.
The red line was completely obliterated with the creation of Project REDMAP (aka gerrymandering) and the subsequent SC (now headed by Roberts) decision that allowed states to do so.
We do not currently have "free and fair" elections with which to elect our representatives according to the Constitution.
I've been a witness to the ascendancy of Republican radicalism my entire life, starting with President Reagan and his obvious lies and "not recalling" any of the details of the Iran Contra scandal, where the executive branch illegally sold weapons to Iran and used the proceeds to fund terrorist training camps in South America to overthrow democratically elected leaders there.
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A lot of the examples provided are significant negative events, but did not make the U.S. a country whose stock market you'd want to avoid, or the USD a currency you'd not want to hold. MMM literally retired on about $650k in cash shortly after the Supreme Court appointment of the disastrous Bush administration and he did fine, even as the independent media was collapsing, Citizens United ruling occurred, wars based on political lies were killing thousands of Americans per year, and a new, partisan Supreme Court was forming.
A red line needs to be severe enough that the probability-weighted risks of waiting for a turnaround in quality of governance exceed the probability-weighted benefits. I.e. if you would have exited the US markets and currency after Trump's 2015 election, look at what you'd have missed out on.
Yet a red line also needs to be sensitive enough so that you are not the last investor holding the bag as a society crumbles. Lots of people in Turkyie' or Russia or Venezuela waited too long to divest while they still could. This is where I differ from the "invest in US stocks no matter what" crowd. Such a strategy works until it doesn't, particularly after a country's decline into authoritarianism is becoming obvious.
So different people might have different sensitivities. Those with hair-triggers risk missing out on a rally like occurred during Trump's first go-round, but in exchange are less exposed if things go badly this time. Those with resistance to change or too much optimism accept the opposite tradeoff.
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A lot of the examples provided are significant negative events, but did not make the U.S. a country whose stock market you'd want to avoid, or the USD a currency you'd not want to hold. MMM literally retired on about $650k in cash shortly after the Supreme Court appointment of the disastrous Bush administration and he did fine, even as the independent media was collapsing, Citizens United ruling occurred, wars based on political lies were killing thousands of Americans per year, and a new, partisan Supreme Court was forming.
A red line needs to be severe enough that the probability-weighted risks of waiting for a turnaround in quality of governance exceed the probability-weighted benefits. I.e. if you would have exited the US markets and currency after Trump's 2015 election, look at what you'd have missed out on.
Yet a red line also needs to be sensitive enough so that you are not the last investor holding the bag as a society crumbles. Lots of people in Turkyie' or Russia or Venezuela waited too long to divest while they still could. This is where I differ from the "invest in US stocks no matter what" crowd. Such a strategy works until it doesn't, particularly after a country's decline into authoritarianism is becoming obvious.
So different people might have different sensitivities. Those with hair-triggers risk missing out on a rally like occurred during Trump's first go-round, but in exchange are less exposed if things go badly this time. Those with resistance to change or too much optimism accept the opposite tradeoff.
Agreed, and I don't think these current events will, either.
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*The executive branch ignores a clear ruling from the Supreme Court.
I mentioned this in another thread, but to me this is Game Over. There's no going back. And unfortunately I think we're headed there.
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If one already has a foreign bank account, what are some possible pitfalls in transferring money from the US to there?
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If one already has a foreign bank account, what are some possible pitfalls in transferring money from the US to there?
I'm doing what I can to study these issues, but don't know much. Here's what I've identified so far:
1) Your tax-advantaged US retirement accounts (traditional IRA, Roth, 401k, HSA) will suddenly be converted to taxable. Not only do you lose the massive advantage of tax-free growth, but you also might have to pay hefty early withdraw penalties.
2) There is a risk of double-taxation if your bond interest, for example, is claimed as income by both the US and the other country. The U.S. is one of a handful of countries that claim its citizens' income earned abroad, which is why some expats give up their citizenship.
3) If by "transferring money" you mean keeping USD's in an account at a foreign bank, you remain vulnerable to a decline in the value of the USD. If you mean convert to local currency, you become vulnerable to a decline in the value of that currency.
4) You may not be eligible for the other country's retirement accounts if you are not a citizen, OR the other country's retirement system may be based on a national pension that you aren't eligible for as a non-citizen, or which would provide only a tiny income in your retirement because you haven't been paying into it your whole life if you obtained citizenship.
If it's just a plain taxable account and your goal is to establish a foreign-domiciled bug-out-account then there's not much downside.
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If one already has a foreign bank account, what are some possible pitfalls in transferring money from the US to there?
I'm doing what I can to study these issues, but don't know much. Here's what I've identified so far:
1) Your tax-advantaged US retirement accounts (traditional IRA, Roth, 401k, HSA) will suddenly be converted to taxable. Not only do you lose the massive advantage of tax-free growth, but you also might have to pay hefty early withdraw penalties.
2) There is a risk of double-taxation if your bond interest, for example, is claimed as income by both the US and the other country. The U.S. is one of a handful of countries that claim its citizens' income earned abroad, which is why some expats give up their citizenship.
3) If by "transferring money" you mean keeping USD's in an account at a foreign bank, you remain vulnerable to a decline in the value of the USD. If you mean convert to local currency, you become vulnerable to a decline in the value of that currency.
4) You may not be eligible for the other country's retirement accounts if you are not a citizen, OR the other country's retirement system may be based on a national pension that you aren't eligible for as a non-citizen, or which would provide only a tiny income in your retirement because you haven't been paying into it your whole life if you obtained citizenship.
If it's just a plain taxable account and your goal is to establish a foreign-domiciled bug-out-account then there's not much downside.
Convert everything to gold bars, smuggle out, and sell as needed.
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Convert everything to gold bars, smuggle out, and sell as needed.
Those things are heavy!! If you ever went to a Federal Reserve you'd see they need special metal toed shoes to protect their feet against a gold bar mishap.
@ChpBstrd , thanks for the thoughtful response. Yes, we're thinking about using a legacy bank account that an overseas relative gave us as storage for bugout money but never actually put money in there. Mr. Poundwise is eligible for dual citizenship if he wants it.
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Convert everything to gold bars, smuggle out, and sell as needed.
Those things are heavy!! If you ever went to a Federal Reserve you'd see they need special metal toed shoes to protect their feet against a gold bar mishap.
@ChpBstrd , thanks for the thoughtful response. Yes, we're thinking about using a legacy bank account that an overseas relative gave us as storage for bugout money but never actually put money in there. Mr. Poundwise is eligible for dual citizenship if he wants it.
It was a joke buttttt how many bars do you really need .....a bar is about $1.1MM now and weighs 27.5lbs so manageable.
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@ChpBstrd , thanks for the thoughtful response. Yes, we're thinking about using a legacy bank account that an overseas relative gave us as storage for bugout money but never actually put money in there. Mr. Poundwise is eligible for dual citizenship if he wants it.
Is the account in your name(s) or that of your relative?
In the first case be aware that once you put any significant money into the account you'll likely need to comply with FBAR and FATCA reporting requirements.
In the second case that starts to get into a weird gray area (at best) and is something I'd personally want to avoid.
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Huh. I was just idly researching offshore banking. I did wonder how many mustachians have offshore accounts and why, pros/cons. Might deserve its own thread.
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Convert everything to gold bars, smuggle out, and sell as needed.
Those things are heavy!! If you ever went to a Federal Reserve you'd see they need special metal toed shoes to protect their feet against a gold bar mishap.
As someone who at the moment is unable to sit pain-free because I dropped myself 1m on my backside, I can certainly underline that this can hurt.
But on the other side, if you have to run with gold in your hand, a 1% chance of broken toe might be an acceptable risk.
In the first case be aware that once you put any significant money into the account you'll likely need to comply with FBAR and FATCA reporting requirements.
In the second case that starts to get into a weird gray area (at best) and is something I'd personally want to avoid.
Soudns right. I don't know what the 4 letter things are, but if you transferred a big amount of money from the US to EU accounts, there is probably someone going to look at it. After all you might be someone trying to buy Fentanyl from the EU now that nothing will ever be able to come in from Canada, thanks to the greatest president of all times!
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Convert everything to gold bars, smuggle out, and sell as needed.
Those things are heavy!! If you ever went to a Federal Reserve you'd see they need special metal toed shoes to protect their feet against a gold bar mishap.
@ChpBstrd , thanks for the thoughtful response. Yes, we're thinking about using a legacy bank account that an overseas relative gave us as storage for bugout money but never actually put money in there. Mr. Poundwise is eligible for dual citizenship if he wants it.
It was a joke buttttt how many bars do you really need .....a bar is about $1.1MM now and weighs 27.5lbs so manageable.
Never thought I would say this.....but BTC weighs nothing (I own 0 crypto and don't plan to change that).
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@ChpBstrd , thanks for the thoughtful response. Yes, we're thinking about using a legacy bank account that an overseas relative gave us as storage for bugout money but never actually put money in there. Mr. Poundwise is eligible for dual citizenship if he wants it.
Is the account in your name(s) or that of your relative?
In the first case be aware that once you put any significant money into the account you'll likely need to comply with FBAR and FATCA reporting requirements.
In the second case that starts to get into a weird gray area (at best) and is something I'd personally want to avoid.
It's our account. My research indicates that a maximum of $10K can be transferred per year before your bank has to report it to the IRS.
I found the following article. https://shinerman.com/article/international-wire-regulations-the-irs-limits-laws-your-rights/1781
"Ultimately, there are only two key things you need to know about international money transfer laws and the IRS. The first is that your bank will automatically report transfers over $10,000. The second is that if you hold $50,000 or more in foreign bank accounts, you’ll need to complete an additional form with your annual tax return.
Other than that, it’s good to know that you have rights and protections in place as a consumer thanks to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau." (sigh)
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I'm reading more about Interactive Brokers (https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/international-lp.php). Their platform allows one to swap into a different currency, trade on different exchanges, access foreign bonds and funds denominated in different currencies, etc.
The benefit would be that one could keep their US IRA and Roth accounts as such, while investing in all the same things they'd invest in if moving into a foreign brokerage. This might be perfect for someone looking to establish temporary residency for a couple of years, someone who wants to postpone all the legal legwork, or someone who simply wants to reduce their US dollar exposure ASAP.
This plan would rely somewhat on an assumption that property rights will be respected for paper assets, and that your Greenwich, CT based broker would not be cut off by political developments like foreign sanctions or domestic currency controls and asset seizures. Such an assumption seems like a reasonable risk to take, given the nature of the one-party state. Yet confidence in the assumption could be shaken by developments such as wars, roundups of political opponents, deteriorating relations with former partners, etc. based on the Russian template. Still, the IB route allows for immediately greater investment and risk control agility, an avoidance of US tax penalties, and a ready-to-go plan for those with a passport and the intent to jump ship. It's a good intermediary step that avoids getting bogged down in analysis paralysis, the study of foreign law, or a commitment to a particular foreign country where you may be unable to obtain residence anyway, and holds onto the option value of a recovery in U.S. governance.
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@ChpBstrd , thanks for the thoughtful response. Yes, we're thinking about using a legacy bank account that an overseas relative gave us as storage for bugout money but never actually put money in there. Mr. Poundwise is eligible for dual citizenship if he wants it.
Is the account in your name(s) or that of your relative?
In the first case be aware that once you put any significant money into the account you'll likely need to comply with FBAR and FATCA reporting requirements.
In the second case that starts to get into a weird gray area (at best) and is something I'd personally want to avoid.
It's our account. My research indicates that a maximum of $10K can be transferred per year before your bank has to report it to the IRS.
I found the following article. https://shinerman.com/article/international-wire-regulations-the-irs-limits-laws-your-rights/1781
"Ultimately, there are only two key things you need to know about international money transfer laws and the IRS. The first is that your bank will automatically report transfers over $10,000. The second is that if you hold $50,000 or more in foreign bank accounts, you’ll need to complete an additional form with your annual tax return.
Other than that, it’s good to know that you have rights and protections in place as a consumer thanks to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau." (sigh)
The penalties attached to FBAR and FATCA sound scary, because they are meant to fight money laundering. But honestly, the hardest thing about them is remembering to fill them out. And, when you have done it once, subsequent years are basically a copy and paste, just updating the numbers.
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Convert everything to gold bars, smuggle out, and sell as needed.
Those things are heavy!! If you ever went to a Federal Reserve you'd see they need special metal toed shoes to protect their feet against a gold bar mishap.
As someone who at the moment is unable to sit pain-free because I dropped myself 1m on my backside, I can certainly underline that this can hurt.
Now imagine the pain if you had keistered a couple gold bars. :P
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@ChpBstrd , thanks for the thoughtful response. Yes, we're thinking about using a legacy bank account that an overseas relative gave us as storage for bugout money but never actually put money in there. Mr. Poundwise is eligible for dual citizenship if he wants it.
Is the account in your name(s) or that of your relative?
In the first case be aware that once you put any significant money into the account you'll likely need to comply with FBAR and FATCA reporting requirements.
In the second case that starts to get into a weird gray area (at best) and is something I'd personally want to avoid.
It's our account. My research indicates that a maximum of $10K can be transferred per year before your bank has to report it to the IRS.
I found the following article. https://shinerman.com/article/international-wire-regulations-the-irs-limits-laws-your-rights/1781
"Ultimately, there are only two key things you need to know about international money transfer laws and the IRS. The first is that your bank will automatically report transfers over $10,000. The second is that if you hold $50,000 or more in foreign bank accounts, you’ll need to complete an additional form with your annual tax return.
Other than that, it’s good to know that you have rights and protections in place as a consumer thanks to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau." (sigh)
Bolded is not correct The limit for FBAR filing is holding more than $10,000 in a foreign bank account at any one point during the year. But yes that is technically not filed with your tax return, it's filed on the treasury department website.
You must file FATCA with your tax return if foreign financial assets exceed $50,000.
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This plan would rely somewhat on an assumption that property rights will be respected for paper assets, and that your Greenwich, CT based broker would not be cut off by political developments like foreign sanctions or domestic currency controls and asset seizures.
I'm not quite at that level of paranoia, and considering the oligarch nature of our present threat, I don't think seizure of financial assents would ever be very likely. Seems like they mostly want to pick on vulnerable groups. Which of course is despicable, but I'm not one of those groups so not relevant to the present discussion.
But if one were concerned about the US financial market and state interference/seizure, I don't think it would make sense to keep your assets anywhere that could be reached by the US government. So any broker with US HQ, or even operations, would be out of the question. I have some assets at Schwab, which has reportedly good service for non-US investors, but I have no doubt that could be shaken down by the US government to hand over my assets if it came to that. Ditto for IB.
Anything in USD the US Treasury consider their purview, so you'd have to use a different currency of course. If you're a US citizen the IRS has the right to go after you anywhere anyway. So if they want they'd just make up some tax evasion charge, and seize all your assets no matter where you are, if they can get to them. I would not gamble on them not finding you or your paper trail. You would need a country that would refuse to hand over your info/assets. That list is pretty short. Sticking your money in Euros or Turkish lira or whatever seems pretty pointless to me.
It would be an interesting exercise to find the best location and avenue for transferring assets out of the US to a "safe" location. I'm not sure where that would be? What is both a country and financial institution that would not be susceptible to US pressure? We have seen that smaller countries can be pressured to give up info, like Switzerland did. No small, or even large, country will anger the US to protect one of it's (rich) non-citizens. Perhaps ironically, some the "enemies" of the US might be the best bet? So China, Russia, Iran? Of course that comes with other horrible risk and issues. And for now IMO is definitely not worth the gamble compared to the US markets.
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IBKR (interactive brokers) is also the best way I’ve found to convert currency. You basically get the straight FOREX exchange rate and then you can wire the money denominated in that currency to your account abroad. I’ve never done it but that’s what I decided to do back before this was just for mundane reasons
I don’t personally worry about forms. The government probably already knows or can easily obtain the details of any transaction you made within the traditional banking system. I’m more concerned with their ability to claw the money which will depend on the government and bank you sent the money to
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This plan would rely somewhat on an assumption that property rights will be respected for paper assets, and that your Greenwich, CT based broker would not be cut off by political developments like foreign sanctions or domestic currency controls and asset seizures.
I'm not quite at that level of paranoia, and considering the oligarch nature of our present threat, I don't think seizure of financial assents would ever be very likely. Seems like they mostly want to pick on vulnerable groups. Which of course is despicable, but I'm not one of those groups so not relevant to the present discussion.
But if one were concerned about the US financial market and state interference/seizure, I don't think it would make sense to keep your assets anywhere that could be reached by the US government. So any broker with US HQ, or even operations, would be out of the question. I have some assets at Schwab, which has reportedly good service for non-US investors, but I have no doubt that could be shaken down by the US government to hand over my assets if it came to that. Ditto for IB.
Anything in USD the US Treasury consider their purview, so you'd have to use a different currency of course. If you're a US citizen the IRS has the right to go after you anywhere anyway. So if they want they'd just make up some tax evasion charge, and seize all your assets no matter where you are, if they can get to them. I would not gamble on them not finding you or your paper trail. You would need a country that would refuse to hand over your info/assets. That list is pretty short. Sticking your money in Euros or Turkish lira or whatever seems pretty pointless to me.
It would be an interesting exercise to find the best location and avenue for transferring assets out of the US to a "safe" location. I'm not sure where that would be? What is both a country and financial institution that would not be susceptible to US pressure? We have seen that smaller countries can be pressured to give up info, like Switzerland did. No small, or even large, country will anger the US to protect one of it's (rich) non-citizens. Perhaps ironically, some the "enemies" of the US might be the best bet? So China, Russia, Iran? Of course that comes with other horrible risk and issues. And for now IMO is definitely not worth the gamble compared to the US markets.
Yea, I've had much the same thought process in trying to think two or three moves ahead. U.S. citizenship could be a liability to one's paper assets regardless of one's residence. And you are right that probably no country would accept negative geopolitical or financial outcomes in order to protect non-citizen financial tourists' assets. Cyprus put up a good fight to protect Russian assets, because they were earning fees for doing so. Yet, in the end many Russians still had their money seized, regardless of their ties to the Putin regime. Such is the nature of imperial politics.
You note that you are not among the vulnerable groups currently being targeted, but I can imagine a scenario where blame could shift to investors and expats. How would this government, which earns support by blaming scapegoats for problems, deal with an issue where the USD was dropping, stocks/bonds were collapsing, and unemployment was rising as assets fled the U.S?
Well, of course the nativists could blame the "market manipulators" shipping "our" money offshore or disloyally buying "globalist" foreign currencies and assets. This could be a financial "night of the long knives" for the oligarchs vying to concentrate their power and seeking to punish their fellow oligarch rivals - especially those outside the regime, as holding/buying U.S. assets becomes a political loyalty test. For regime oligarchs, it could create an asset fire-sale to rival what happened after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Engineering such a fire sale would be a goal in itself.
Currency controls, special exit taxes, politically motivated fraud charges, or laws against foreign investment could follow. If it got that bad, the idea of just using IB accounts would prove insufficient. Yet the idea may have legs right now as a way to make the right moves over the next 2-4 years. Then, if things get worse, you accept the costs of converting your accounts and citizenship to wherever you ended up, slipping through the financial noose before it closes around a fleeing herd. If governance does not get worse, then you haven't liquidated your IRAs and it's a win that way too.
Do current conditions warrant a full-fleeing approach? Probably not, but that could change within months. People will have different "red lines" but the IB idea seems like an intermediate step that reduces the risks of over-reacting to hypotheticals or under-reacting to realities. There's no harm done in setting up a traditional IRA, Roth IRA, and taxable account at IB, and then practicing the conversion of money or the purchasing of foreign assets in foreign currencies (will look into whether paper trading can simulate these acts). I'm thinking about taking a European vacation and testing various plans to get Euros in hand. It's basic disaster preparation at this point, and being prepared could be the difference between early decisive action and getting caught in the financial noose.
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IBKR (interactive brokers) is also the best way I’ve found to convert currency. You basically get the straight FOREX exchange rate and then you can wire the money denominated in that currency to your account abroad. I’ve never done it but that’s what I decided to do back before this was just for mundane reasons
I don’t personally worry about forms. The government probably already knows or can easily obtain the details of any transaction you made within the traditional banking system. I’m more concerned with their ability to claw the money which will depend on the government and bank you sent the money to
I’m gonna look into this.
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To continue scandium’s exercise, assuming you can transfer the money electronically but are worried about seizure, I guess you could buy gold/cash in the target country. For example if I move i could withdraw cash and give it to family members. That would beat trying to carry it across borders myself. If something like that wouldn’t work (for example, destination government in total cahoots with the US), then the destination country probably was already a bad choice
Also considered simply transfer directly to family abroad. From what I can tell with quick googling I don’t think gift tax is a big problem at my level of wealth. If this is a preemptive measure taken over several years, then the limits involved are more than I’d need
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IBKR (interactive brokers) is also the best way I’ve found to convert currency. You basically get the straight FOREX exchange rate and then you can wire the money denominated in that currency to your account abroad. I’ve never done it but that’s what I decided to do back before this was just for mundane reasons
I don’t personally worry about forms. The government probably already knows or can easily obtain the details of any transaction you made within the traditional banking system. I’m more concerned with their ability to claw the money which will depend on the government and bank you sent the money to
I’m gonna look into this.
Checked again and it seems like they don’t like this much. So might have to do it in one shot or use wise and pay more. https://www.reddit.com/r/interactivebrokers/s/gHXwqI1Muf
I’ve been investing with them for years so maybe it wouldn’t cause the same flags as that Reddit post
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We’ve supported extended family outside the US for decades. For a while they were able to use a debit card linked to our US bank account to withdraw (there were exchange fees associated, but still less than a money transfer like Western Union), but the bank eventually shut down that loophole. I imagine the super rich people in this world don’t have to deal with all the fees but outside of that debit card hack there is no easy way to transfer money across borders without high fees. That’s why this appeals to me, and we’re going to look into opening an account in our own name in that country. The amounts of money transferred would likely be very much less than $10k.
According to that thread, “If you're in the US Schwab has an international debit card that has a $0 atm fee. It's meant for travel, but it may be an alternative depending on what you're trying to do.”
Except I hate Schwab’s anti-woman agenda, so I can’t support them.
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We’ve supported extended family outside the US for decades. For a while they were able to use a debit card linked to our US bank account to withdraw (there were exchange fees associated, but still less than a money transfer like Western Union), but the bank eventually shut down that loophole. I imagine the super rich people in this world don’t have to deal with all the fees but outside of that debit card hack there is no easy way to transfer money across borders without high fees. That’s why this appeals to me, and we’re going to look into opening an account in our own name in that country. The amounts of money transferred would likely be very much less than $10k.
According to that thread, “If you're in the US Schwab has an international debit card that has a $0 atm fee. It's meant for travel, but it may be an alternative depending on what you're trying to do.”
Except I hate Schwab’s anti-woman agenda, so I can’t support them.
I do use Schwab for small withdrawal abroad and had considered giving a card to family. I used to feel a little bad since I only have one share in the investment account and a couple bucks in checking unless I’m traveling. Unfortunately I still have to pay fees because they don’t accurately determine the fee it gets rolled into the total in some way depending on the bank and while I don’t let them do the dynamic ripoff currency conversion the exchange rate is decent but it’s usually still easier to just use a credit card
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We’ve supported extended family outside the US for decades. For a while they were able to use a debit card linked to our US bank account to withdraw (there were exchange fees associated, but still less than a money transfer like Western Union), but the bank eventually shut down that loophole. I imagine the super rich people in this world don’t have to deal with all the fees but outside of that debit card hack there is no easy way to transfer money across borders without high fees. That’s why this appeals to me, and we’re going to look into opening an account in our own name in that country. The amounts of money transferred would likely be very much less than $10k.
According to that thread, “If you're in the US Schwab has an international debit card that has a $0 atm fee. It's meant for travel, but it may be an alternative depending on what you're trying to do.”
Except I hate Schwab’s anti-woman agenda, so I can’t support them.
Yes you can use a foreign ATM fee-free with Schwab, but of course that only lets you take out a limited amount. Usually a few thousand. Not realistic for transferring one's $500k+ assets abroad in a hurry.
What exactly is Schwab’s anti-woman agenda? I'm not familiar with it. Only thing I found was a discrimination lawsuit by a pregnant woman (by her schwab manger). Pretty bad, but no indication that's systemic. Schwab closed their PAC in 2021, so they don't contribute to any politicians.
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To continue scandium’s exercise, assuming you can transfer the money electronically but are worried about seizure, I guess you could buy gold/cash in the target country. For example if I move i could withdraw cash and give it to family members. That would beat trying to carry it across borders myself. If something like that wouldn’t work (for example, destination government in total cahoots with the US), then the destination country probably was already a bad choice
Also considered simply transfer directly to family abroad. From what I can tell with quick googling I don’t think gift tax is a big problem at my level of wealth. If this is a preemptive measure taken over several years, then the limits involved are more than I’d need
Yes, cash, gold or similar seems to be the "safest". Since you could theoretically store it yourself, so can't be seized electronically. The US, or the local police on the orders of the US, would have to physically take it from you (though that is a possibility). Storing them in a bank vault is likely no better than a bank account though, IRS would be on that pretty quickly.
The problem here is of course that this is pretty irreversible, so the 'false negative' risk is high. Converting your full IRA to gold bars stored in your grandma's yard in Romania could have a host of pretty negative consequences if nothing happens (not least of which is your grandma gossiping at bingo night and some local hooligans doing some digging..).
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We’ve supported extended family outside the US for decades. For a while they were able to use a debit card linked to our US bank account to withdraw (there were exchange fees associated, but still less than a money transfer like Western Union), but the bank eventually shut down that loophole. I imagine the super rich people in this world don’t have to deal with all the fees but outside of that debit card hack there is no easy way to transfer money across borders without high fees. That’s why this appeals to me, and we’re going to look into opening an account in our own name in that country. The amounts of money transferred would likely be very much less than $10k.
According to that thread, “If you're in the US Schwab has an international debit card that has a $0 atm fee. It's meant for travel, but it may be an alternative depending on what you're trying to do.”
Except I hate Schwab’s anti-woman agenda, so I can’t support them.
Yes you can use a foreign ATM fee-free with Schwab, but of course that only lets you take out a limited amount. Usually a few thousand. Not realistic for transferring one's $500k+ assets abroad in a hurry.
What exactly is Schwab’s anti-woman agenda? I'm not familiar with it. Only thing I found was a discrimination lawsuit by a pregnant woman (by her schwab manger). Pretty bad, but no indication that's systemic. Schwab closed their PAC in 2021, so they don't contribute to any politicians.
https://rewirenewsgroup.com/2019/06/14/these-corporations-and-public-charities-funded-the-state-abortion-bans/
Looks like it was a Schwab Charitable DAF.
But yeah it looks like they shut down lobbying in response to Jan 6?
https://www.aboutschwab.com/why-we-dont-take-sides-on-political-Issues
Also https://www.advisorhub.com/ubs-edward-jones-and-others-keep-mum-about-covering-abortion-travel-costs/
Thanks for updating me on this.
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We’ve supported extended family outside the US for decades. For a while they were able to use a debit card linked to our US bank account to withdraw (there were exchange fees associated, but still less than a money transfer like Western Union), but the bank eventually shut down that loophole. I imagine the super rich people in this world don’t have to deal with all the fees but outside of that debit card hack there is no easy way to transfer money across borders without high fees. That’s why this appeals to me, and we’re going to look into opening an account in our own name in that country. The amounts of money transferred would likely be very much less than $10k.
According to that thread, “If you're in the US Schwab has an international debit card that has a $0 atm fee. It's meant for travel, but it may be an alternative depending on what you're trying to do.”
Except I hate Schwab’s anti-woman agenda, so I can’t support them.
Yes you can use a foreign ATM fee-free with Schwab, but of course that only lets you take out a limited amount. Usually a few thousand. Not realistic for transferring one's $500k+ assets abroad in a hurry.
What exactly is Schwab’s anti-woman agenda? I'm not familiar with it. Only thing I found was a discrimination lawsuit by a pregnant woman (by her schwab manger). Pretty bad, but no indication that's systemic. Schwab closed their PAC in 2021, so they don't contribute to any politicians.
https://rewirenewsgroup.com/2019/06/14/these-corporations-and-public-charities-funded-the-state-abortion-bans/
Looks like it was a Schwab Charitable DAF.
But yeah it looks like they shut down lobbying in response to Jan 6?
https://www.aboutschwab.com/why-we-dont-take-sides-on-political-Issues
Also https://www.advisorhub.com/ubs-edward-jones-and-others-keep-mum-about-covering-abortion-travel-costs/
Thanks for updating me on this.
Re: the donations thing -- I was taken aback at first to see that the amount that "Fidelity Charitable" donated was nearly 8x that of Schwab. But then I realized Vangaurd is also on the list, and that these are funds flowing THROUGH the DAF structure donated by individuals who have set up their giving through those entities. It is not Fidelity/Schwab/Vanguard donating toward those causes as corporations or through their corporate charitable entities.
Very sloppy reporting by that "rewirenewsgroup" to not make this clear.
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Re: the donations thing -- I was taken aback at first to see that the amount that "Fidelity Charitable" donated was nearly 8x that of Schwab. But then I realized Vangaurd is also on the list, and that these are funds flowing THROUGH the DAF structure donated by individuals who have set up their giving through those entities. It is not Fidelity/Schwab/Vanguard donating toward those causes as corporations or through their corporate charitable entities.
Very sloppy reporting by that "rewirenewsgroup" to not make this clear.
Yes, exactly. I could set up a Schwab DAF right now, I think minimum is $5000. And donate to any IRS registered charity. Schwab/vanguard etc of course have nothing to do with where it goes.
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Regardless, the man himself is very conservative and a major GOP donor along with his wife.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelatindera/2021/05/05/after-the-capitol-riots-this-company-closed-its-pac-but-its-billionaire-founder-is-still-spending-big/
But Charles Schwab, the man, had another idea. A dedicated Republican donor, who remains chairman of the firm he founded, Schwab has for years given more money out of his own pocket than his company gives out of its PAC. So while the company dropped its donations from $69,000 during the first quarter of 2020 to $0 this year, Schwab and his wife Helen donated even more this year, handing out at least $780,000 between January and March.
Some of the beneficiaries were lawmakers who refused to certify the election results. In March, Schwab donated $266,300 to the McCarthy Victory Fund, a joint-fundraising committee that supports House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, one of 139 representatives who voted against certifying Biden’s victory. That was the largest single contribution made to McCarthy’s PAC during the first three months of 2021.
Schwab also donated $255,500 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, a group chaired by Senator Rick Scott of Florida, one of eight senators to vote against certifying the election results. And his wife Helen gave $266,300 to a committee supporting Republican representatives in the House, including at least two dozen lawmakers who voted against certifying President Biden’s win.
Even though those donations were inconsistent with the policies of the brokerage firm, where the tycoon made his $11.2 billion fortune, they were in line with Schwab’s previous personal giving. In 2019 and 2020, the mogul and his wife donated $21.2 million to federal candidates, committees and super-PACs supporting Republicans running for Congress—enough for Schwab to qualify as one of the top 20 billionaire donors in the country last year.
“Every individual in our firm has a right to their own, individual political beliefs and we respect that right. Their individual beliefs or contributions do not represent the position of the firm as a whole,” said a company spokesperson in a statement. “Like every Schwab employee, our chairman’s personal political activities are his own, and are separate from The Charles Schwab Corporation and its subsidiaries.”
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Well Im a fed employee. Due to my risk tolerance (as I define, not able to sleep at night) shifted half of my fed retirement funds to g fund. I am not retired so cannot shift it outside the government. Or even know where I could shift it to even if I could. Contribution allocation stays the same (but that is a fraction). The worst that happens is I miss out on gains. But the benefit of not stressing about losing both my job and savings at same time. Other than small rebalancing I have never done this. I guess there is a first time for everything. I hope I am pleasantly surprised and this is not as bad as I fear. I still remember my dad (as a child in an occupied country during WW2) seeing a man begging trying to trade a gold watch for a loaf of bread and getting no takers. The fact the economy eventually DID recover (after his entire family starved to death) was probably small solace.
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Regardless, the man himself is very conservative and a major GOP donor along with his wife.
Seems like his ownership is very small… like .5%? (5% for my powers of ten wrong) If you have infinite ability to boycott that’s great.. better for your wallet. But when most every CEO is some kind of shitty person I choose to focus my energies on the biggest fish (for example, Walton’s own nearly 50% of Walmart, musk 10-20% of Tesla)
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Regardless, the man himself is very conservative and a major GOP donor along with his wife.
Seems like his ownership is very small… like .5%? If you have infinite ability to boycott that’s great.. better for your wallet. But when most every CEO is some kind of shitty person I choose to focus my energies on the biggest fish (for example, Walton’s own nearly 50% of Walmart, musk 10-20% of Tesla)
Looks like 5.4%, if this can be believed.
https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/schw/ownership
But I agree. I'm not going to liquidate taxable investments, transfer everything, and switch up all my banking, that I've used for 10+ years (and that I otherwise enjoy as a bank), because of it. I boycott where it makes sense, like you said try not to shop at walmart, or a Tesla.
If anything, since I just buy and hold their index funds, and use zero advisor services, schwab (the bank and the man) is probably loosing money on me. I'm doing my part!
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Agreed. But in my case I don’t already have any Schwab so I don’t feel the need to invest with them.
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Agreed. But in my case I don’t already have any Schwab so I don’t feel the need to invest with them.
They are supposed to be the best bank account/credit card combo for USians traveling or temporarily living abroad. Someone in another thread mentioned Interactive Brokers for that purpose. Can someone who has traveled more recently chime in on alternatives?
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This is a good opportunity to update Dividendman's list of significant events where people tend to question their market strategies. Is Trump 2.0 bigger than...
1900 - Italy's king is assasinated
1901 - Queen Victoria dies, President McKinley is assassinated
1903 - plague in India and China, killing over 12 million pepole
1904 - Russia and Japan go to war
1905 - Russia has a bloody revolution
1906 - San Francisco burns down
1908 - a massive explosion mysteriously happens in Russia, leveling 830 square miles. Truks revolt in the Ottoman empire, a massive earthquake in Italy kills 150 thousand people
1909 - Japan's prince is assasinated
1911 - The Chinese bloody revolution
1912 - the Titanic Sinks
1913 - personal income tax introduced in the US
1914 - WWI starts
1915 - WWI still going, millions dying, Armenian genocide is going on
1916 - yep, WWI still going, tanks and chemical weapons being used, airplanes for dropping bombs
1917 - another russian revolution, this time to communism, WWI still going and the US joins in
1918 - WWI still going, but who cares, the Spanish flu kills 100 MILLION people, 5% of the world's population
1919 - WWI finally ends, spanish flu still killing though
1920 - another plague in India, US outlaws alcohol
1921 - german hyper inflation going on, the Irish declare independence
1922 - some guy named Mussolini takes over Italy
1923 - some dude named Hitler has a failed coup in germany - woo, the world lucked out
1929 - the great depression starts
1930 - Stalin starts killing people all over the place, great depression
1931 - yup, still in the depression
1932 - still there, nothing is getting better
1933 - still depressed, and this time Hitler takes over germany
1934 - The dust bowl starts peaking... i.e. a decade of drought, no crops, everyone starving, this keeps going until 1939!
1935 - dangerous communist social program started in the US (Social Security)
1936 - spanish civil war begins, stalin ramps up his killings into the millions
1937 - Japan invades china
1938 - Hitler annexes Austria, at least he's stopping there
1939 - whoops, maybe, not WWII starts... millions killed, trillions infrastructure wiped out in Europe and across the world
1940 - Nazi's start murdering millions of civilian "undesirables", FDR takes 3rd term ignoring Washington's precedent
1941 - Japan bombs pearl harbor, world still f'd up in a huge war, Vietnam turns communist
1942 - is the warover? nope, just ramping up, millions more dying
1943 - everyone is still dying in WW2
1945 - woohoo, WWII is over, oh wait, that happened by dropping a devastating indiscriminate nuclear radiation bombs on civilians! oh, and FDR died in office
1946 - peace in our time! except the USSR annexes half of europe, which is a pile of rubble thanks to carpet bombing
1947 - India and Pakistan gain independence from Great Britian, and then go to war against each other
1948 - Israel founded, that won't cause any problems. Ghandi gets assassinated
1949 - China becomes communist, USSR, the nemesis of hte free world, gains nuclear weapons
1950 - whoops, another devastating total war, this time in Korea, but not between Koreans, a proxy war between the US/Russia/China and others
1952 - we get a polio vaccine... wait what? Oh yeah, people were getting f'd up by polio for the last forever years
1954 - segregation is ruled illegal in the US, so race relations are finally fixed
1955 - Warsaw pact created, basically a bunch of countries banded together to defeat america/western capitalist democracies
1956 - Hungarian revoltion, Suez crisis
1957 - Russians beat everyone into space
1960 - a 9.6 magnitude earthquake, the biggest ever recorded hits chili, lots of people die, civil rights riots and protests start happening
1961 - US backed rebels unsuccessfully invade Cuba, Berlin wall goes up, more civil rights disruptions, Soviets get the first man in space, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever denoted is denoted, we can now destroy the world
1962 - Now that we have the bombs to blow up the world, the Cuban missile crisis happens, which almost blows up the word
1963 - another president killed in office
1964 - civil rights act passed, ok, now race relations are good for sure, no more civil rights disruptions ever
1965 - US sends a few troops to Vietnam just in case, Malcom X is assassinated, India and Pakistan go to war again
1966 - Chairman Mao has a cultural revolution in china, lots die, the US institutes the draft
1967 - the Australian PM disappears, the six day war between Israel and it's neighbors happens, civil rights unrest continues
1968 - MLK Jr. assassinated, RFK assassinated, Tet Offensive in Vietnam happens, yeah, the Vietnam war is going full speed ahead
1971 - the US capitalist system institutes wage and price controls, India and Pakistan go to war again
1972 - Vietnam war still going on
1973 - US declares victory and leaves vietnam, the US can't get oil because of an embargo
1974 - the US president up and quits
1975 - big Cambodian genocide, Civil war in lebanon, the US president escapes two assassination attempts
1976 - Tangshan earthquake kills a quarter million folks, Vietnam is all communist now
1979 - Iranian revolution, a US nuclear reactor has a partial meltdown
1980 - mount st helens erupts, the US embargoes the USSR, US inflation hits 14%, Iran Iraq war starts, and goes on for 8 years
1981 - someone tries to kill the US president, again
1982 - Falkands war starts, Lebanon war starts
1983 - US embassy bombed, a bunch of coups happening, USSR downs a korean airliner, famine in ethiopia kills half million
1984 - India's PM assassinated
1986 - Russian nuclear reactor melts down
1987 - black monday in US markets
1989 - berlin wall falls, USSR breaking up
1990 - Persian gulf war, Germany reunites, US doing more coupy type things in south america
1991 - USSR officially collapses, Balkans war starts, bosnian genocide starts
1994 - massive genocide in rwanda
1995 - Sarin gas is used in a Tokyo subway, Rabin assassinated
1996 - mad cow disease
1998 - india and pakistan test nukes
1999 - India and pakistan go to war and they have nukes
2000 - .com bust
2000 - election decided by the supreme court
2001 - 9/11, Afghanistan war
2002 - Euro currency created
2003 - 2nd gulf war started
2004 - Indian Ocean Tsunami, killing over 200k people instantly and displacing millions. Facebook is created.
2005 - Hurricane katrina, Youtube online
2006 - Israel lebanon war, North Korea gets Nukes
2007 - Great recession starts
2008 - A cyclone in china and earthquake in myanmar kill over 200k
2009 - great recession continues
2010 - arab spring starts
2011 - Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, Syrian and Libyan civil wars
2014 - ISIS forms, Ebola outbreak in Africa, Russia annexes Crimea
2016 - Trump 1.0
2017 - Rohingya genocide, ISIS captures Mosul
2018 - Venezuelan refugee crisis intensifies, with over 5 Million refugees leaving the country
2019 - Brexit, US-China tariff/trade war continues, Hong Kong democracy protests quashed
2020 - COVID worldwide pandemic
2021 - Taliban recapture Afghanistan
2022 - Russia invades Ukraine in the largest European invasion since WW2
2023 - Hamas attacks Israel, Sudanese civil war/genocide
2024 - Israel Iran Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas engaged in conflict
2025 - Trump 2.0!
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Agreed. But in my case I don’t already have any Schwab so I don’t feel the need to invest with them.
They are supposed to be the best bank account/credit card combo for USians traveling or temporarily living abroad. Someone in another thread mentioned Interactive Brokers for that purpose. Can someone who has traveled more recently chime in on alternatives?
Yes, I moved to Schwab years ago partially because I travel abroad occasionally and they are one of the recommended options for debit cards for that. You can get cash from any ATM, including abroad, with a "fair" exchange rate, and zero fee. And they'll refund you that "this ATM charge a $4 fee". The other option that I know of is the Fidelity debit card. There might be other options, but I don't know or remember them now.
Living, and investing, abroad is obviously more complicated. Due to FATCA and KYC rules most brokers will refuse to do business with you. And this is another reason I'm sticking with Schwab; they actively offer investing services to non-US residents, with their "international" offering, and i believe they have some offices abroad
https://international.schwab.com/
Fidelity is not as helpful, and take the line similar to Vanguard and other brokerages. They will at least not liquidate your account (how kind..), but they will also severely restrict what you can do if you're a non-US resident.
https://www.fidelity.com/accounts/services/investors_outside_US_faq.shtml
It seems like IBKR's offers a service similar to Schwab, so could be another option. I do like that Schwab also has bank service, and I trust them more than IB just based on brand recognition (to me IB is more of a service is see mentioned for the daytrader/WSB types).
I have no experience with either options, so can't speak to actually using it. But just from my research, at least Schwab seems more geared towards these customers and have a system in place.
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This is a good opportunity to update Dividendman's list of significant events where people tend to question their market strategies. Is Trump 2.0 bigger than...
1900 - Italy's king is assasinated
1901 - Queen Victoria dies, President McKinley is assassinated
1903 - plague in India and China, killing over 12 million pepole
1904 - Russia and Japan go to war
1905 - Russia has a bloody revolution
1906 - San Francisco burns down
1908 - a massive explosion mysteriously happens in Russia, leveling 830 square miles. Truks revolt in the Ottoman empire, a massive earthquake in Italy kills 150 thousand people
1909 - Japan's prince is assasinated
1911 - The Chinese bloody revolution
1912 - the Titanic Sinks
1913 - personal income tax introduced in the US
1914 - WWI starts
1915 - WWI still going, millions dying, Armenian genocide is going on
1916 - yep, WWI still going, tanks and chemical weapons being used, airplanes for dropping bombs
1917 - another russian revolution, this time to communism, WWI still going and the US joins in
1918 - WWI still going, but who cares, the Spanish flu kills 100 MILLION people, 5% of the world's population
1919 - WWI finally ends, spanish flu still killing though
1920 - another plague in India, US outlaws alcohol
1921 - german hyper inflation going on, the Irish declare independence
1922 - some guy named Mussolini takes over Italy
1923 - some dude named Hitler has a failed coup in germany - woo, the world lucked out
1929 - the great depression starts
1930 - Stalin starts killing people all over the place, great depression
1931 - yup, still in the depression
1932 - still there, nothing is getting better
1933 - still depressed, and this time Hitler takes over germany
1934 - The dust bowl starts peaking... i.e. a decade of drought, no crops, everyone starving, this keeps going until 1939!
1935 - dangerous communist social program started in the US (Social Security)
1936 - spanish civil war begins, stalin ramps up his killings into the millions
1937 - Japan invades china
1938 - Hitler annexes Austria, at least he's stopping there
1939 - whoops, maybe, not WWII starts... millions killed, trillions infrastructure wiped out in Europe and across the world
1940 - Nazi's start murdering millions of civilian "undesirables", FDR takes 3rd term ignoring Washington's precedent
1941 - Japan bombs pearl harbor, world still f'd up in a huge war, Vietnam turns communist
1942 - is the warover? nope, just ramping up, millions more dying
1943 - everyone is still dying in WW2
1945 - woohoo, WWII is over, oh wait, that happened by dropping a devastating indiscriminate nuclear radiation bombs on civilians! oh, and FDR died in office
1946 - peace in our time! except the USSR annexes half of europe, which is a pile of rubble thanks to carpet bombing
1947 - India and Pakistan gain independence from Great Britian, and then go to war against each other
1948 - Israel founded, that won't cause any problems. Ghandi gets assassinated
1949 - China becomes communist, USSR, the nemesis of hte free world, gains nuclear weapons
1950 - whoops, another devastating total war, this time in Korea, but not between Koreans, a proxy war between the US/Russia/China and others
1952 - we get a polio vaccine... wait what? Oh yeah, people were getting f'd up by polio for the last forever years
1954 - segregation is ruled illegal in the US, so race relations are finally fixed
1955 - Warsaw pact created, basically a bunch of countries banded together to defeat america/western capitalist democracies
1956 - Hungarian revoltion, Suez crisis
1957 - Russians beat everyone into space
1960 - a 9.6 magnitude earthquake, the biggest ever recorded hits chili, lots of people die, civil rights riots and protests start happening
1961 - US backed rebels unsuccessfully invade Cuba, Berlin wall goes up, more civil rights disruptions, Soviets get the first man in space, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever denoted is denoted, we can now destroy the world
1962 - Now that we have the bombs to blow up the world, the Cuban missile crisis happens, which almost blows up the word
1963 - another president killed in office
1964 - civil rights act passed, ok, now race relations are good for sure, no more civil rights disruptions ever
1965 - US sends a few troops to Vietnam just in case, Malcom X is assassinated, India and Pakistan go to war again
1966 - Chairman Mao has a cultural revolution in china, lots die, the US institutes the draft
1967 - the Australian PM disappears, the six day war between Israel and it's neighbors happens, civil rights unrest continues
1968 - MLK Jr. assassinated, RFK assassinated, Tet Offensive in Vietnam happens, yeah, the Vietnam war is going full speed ahead
1971 - the US capitalist system institutes wage and price controls, India and Pakistan go to war again
1972 - Vietnam war still going on
1973 - US declares victory and leaves vietnam, the US can't get oil because of an embargo
1974 - the US president up and quits
1975 - big Cambodian genocide, Civil war in lebanon, the US president escapes two assassination attempts
1976 - Tangshan earthquake kills a quarter million folks, Vietnam is all communist now
1979 - Iranian revolution, a US nuclear reactor has a partial meltdown
1980 - mount st helens erupts, the US embargoes the USSR, US inflation hits 14%, Iran Iraq war starts, and goes on for 8 years
1981 - someone tries to kill the US president, again
1982 - Falkands war starts, Lebanon war starts
1983 - US embassy bombed, a bunch of coups happening, USSR downs a korean airliner, famine in ethiopia kills half million
1984 - India's PM assassinated
1986 - Russian nuclear reactor melts down
1987 - black monday in US markets
1989 - berlin wall falls, USSR breaking up
1990 - Persian gulf war, Germany reunites, US doing more coupy type things in south america
1991 - USSR officially collapses, Balkans war starts, bosnian genocide starts
1994 - massive genocide in rwanda
1995 - Sarin gas is used in a Tokyo subway, Rabin assassinated
1996 - mad cow disease
1998 - india and pakistan test nukes
1999 - India and pakistan go to war and they have nukes
2000 - .com bust
2000 - election decided by the supreme court
2001 - 9/11, Afghanistan war
2002 - Euro currency created
2003 - 2nd gulf war started
2004 - Indian Ocean Tsunami, killing over 200k people instantly and displacing millions. Facebook is created.
2005 - Hurricane katrina, Youtube online
2006 - Israel lebanon war, North Korea gets Nukes
2007 - Great recession starts
2008 - A cyclone in china and earthquake in myanmar kill over 200k
2009 - great recession continues
2010 - arab spring starts
2011 - Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, Syrian and Libyan civil wars
2014 - ISIS forms, Ebola outbreak in Africa, Russia annexes Crimea
2016 - Trump 1.0
2017 - Rohingya genocide, ISIS captures Mosul
2018 - Venezuelan refugee crisis intensifies, with over 5 Million refugees leaving the country
2019 - Brexit, US-China tariff/trade war continues, Hong Kong democracy protests quashed
2020 - COVID worldwide pandemic
2021 - Taliban recapture Afghanistan
2022 - Russia invades Ukraine in the largest European invasion since WW2
2023 - Hamas attacks Israel, Sudanese civil war/genocide
2024 - Israel Iran Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas engaged in conflict
2025 - Trump 2.0!
How dare you post evidence that things are going to be fine. Don't you know people want to freak out?
-
This is a good opportunity to update Dividendman's list of significant events where people tend to question their market strategies. Is Trump 2.0 bigger than...
1900 - Italy's king is assasinated
1901 - Queen Victoria dies, President McKinley is assassinated
1903 - plague in India and China, killing over 12 million pepole
1904 - Russia and Japan go to war
1905 - Russia has a bloody revolution
1906 - San Francisco burns down
1908 - a massive explosion mysteriously happens in Russia, leveling 830 square miles. Truks revolt in the Ottoman empire, a massive earthquake in Italy kills 150 thousand people
1909 - Japan's prince is assasinated
1911 - The Chinese bloody revolution
1912 - the Titanic Sinks
1913 - personal income tax introduced in the US
1914 - WWI starts
1915 - WWI still going, millions dying, Armenian genocide is going on
1916 - yep, WWI still going, tanks and chemical weapons being used, airplanes for dropping bombs
1917 - another russian revolution, this time to communism, WWI still going and the US joins in
1918 - WWI still going, but who cares, the Spanish flu kills 100 MILLION people, 5% of the world's population
1919 - WWI finally ends, spanish flu still killing though
1920 - another plague in India, US outlaws alcohol
1921 - german hyper inflation going on, the Irish declare independence
1922 - some guy named Mussolini takes over Italy
1923 - some dude named Hitler has a failed coup in germany - woo, the world lucked out
1929 - the great depression starts
1930 - Stalin starts killing people all over the place, great depression
1931 - yup, still in the depression
1932 - still there, nothing is getting better
1933 - still depressed, and this time Hitler takes over germany
1934 - The dust bowl starts peaking... i.e. a decade of drought, no crops, everyone starving, this keeps going until 1939!
1935 - dangerous communist social program started in the US (Social Security)
1936 - spanish civil war begins, stalin ramps up his killings into the millions
1937 - Japan invades china
1938 - Hitler annexes Austria, at least he's stopping there
1939 - whoops, maybe, not WWII starts... millions killed, trillions infrastructure wiped out in Europe and across the world
1940 - Nazi's start murdering millions of civilian "undesirables", FDR takes 3rd term ignoring Washington's precedent
1941 - Japan bombs pearl harbor, world still f'd up in a huge war, Vietnam turns communist
1942 - is the warover? nope, just ramping up, millions more dying
1943 - everyone is still dying in WW2
1945 - woohoo, WWII is over, oh wait, that happened by dropping a devastating indiscriminate nuclear radiation bombs on civilians! oh, and FDR died in office
1946 - peace in our time! except the USSR annexes half of europe, which is a pile of rubble thanks to carpet bombing
1947 - India and Pakistan gain independence from Great Britian, and then go to war against each other
1948 - Israel founded, that won't cause any problems. Ghandi gets assassinated
1949 - China becomes communist, USSR, the nemesis of hte free world, gains nuclear weapons
1950 - whoops, another devastating total war, this time in Korea, but not between Koreans, a proxy war between the US/Russia/China and others
1952 - we get a polio vaccine... wait what? Oh yeah, people were getting f'd up by polio for the last forever years
1954 - segregation is ruled illegal in the US, so race relations are finally fixed
1955 - Warsaw pact created, basically a bunch of countries banded together to defeat america/western capitalist democracies
1956 - Hungarian revoltion, Suez crisis
1957 - Russians beat everyone into space
1960 - a 9.6 magnitude earthquake, the biggest ever recorded hits chili, lots of people die, civil rights riots and protests start happening
1961 - US backed rebels unsuccessfully invade Cuba, Berlin wall goes up, more civil rights disruptions, Soviets get the first man in space, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever denoted is denoted, we can now destroy the world
1962 - Now that we have the bombs to blow up the world, the Cuban missile crisis happens, which almost blows up the word
1963 - another president killed in office
1964 - civil rights act passed, ok, now race relations are good for sure, no more civil rights disruptions ever
1965 - US sends a few troops to Vietnam just in case, Malcom X is assassinated, India and Pakistan go to war again
1966 - Chairman Mao has a cultural revolution in china, lots die, the US institutes the draft
1967 - the Australian PM disappears, the six day war between Israel and it's neighbors happens, civil rights unrest continues
1968 - MLK Jr. assassinated, RFK assassinated, Tet Offensive in Vietnam happens, yeah, the Vietnam war is going full speed ahead
1971 - the US capitalist system institutes wage and price controls, India and Pakistan go to war again
1972 - Vietnam war still going on
1973 - US declares victory and leaves vietnam, the US can't get oil because of an embargo
1974 - the US president up and quits
1975 - big Cambodian genocide, Civil war in lebanon, the US president escapes two assassination attempts
1976 - Tangshan earthquake kills a quarter million folks, Vietnam is all communist now
1979 - Iranian revolution, a US nuclear reactor has a partial meltdown
1980 - mount st helens erupts, the US embargoes the USSR, US inflation hits 14%, Iran Iraq war starts, and goes on for 8 years
1981 - someone tries to kill the US president, again
1982 - Falkands war starts, Lebanon war starts
1983 - US embassy bombed, a bunch of coups happening, USSR downs a korean airliner, famine in ethiopia kills half million
1984 - India's PM assassinated
1986 - Russian nuclear reactor melts down
1987 - black monday in US markets
1989 - berlin wall falls, USSR breaking up
1990 - Persian gulf war, Germany reunites, US doing more coupy type things in south america
1991 - USSR officially collapses, Balkans war starts, bosnian genocide starts
1994 - massive genocide in rwanda
1995 - Sarin gas is used in a Tokyo subway, Rabin assassinated
1996 - mad cow disease
1998 - india and pakistan test nukes
1999 - India and pakistan go to war and they have nukes
2000 - .com bust
2000 - election decided by the supreme court
2001 - 9/11, Afghanistan war
2002 - Euro currency created
2003 - 2nd gulf war started
2004 - Indian Ocean Tsunami, killing over 200k people instantly and displacing millions. Facebook is created.
2005 - Hurricane katrina, Youtube online
2006 - Israel lebanon war, North Korea gets Nukes
2007 - Great recession starts
2008 - A cyclone in china and earthquake in myanmar kill over 200k
2009 - great recession continues
2010 - arab spring starts
2011 - Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, Syrian and Libyan civil wars
2014 - ISIS forms, Ebola outbreak in Africa, Russia annexes Crimea
2016 - Trump 1.0
2017 - Rohingya genocide, ISIS captures Mosul
2018 - Venezuelan refugee crisis intensifies, with over 5 Million refugees leaving the country
2019 - Brexit, US-China tariff/trade war continues, Hong Kong democracy protests quashed
2020 - COVID worldwide pandemic
2021 - Taliban recapture Afghanistan
2022 - Russia invades Ukraine in the largest European invasion since WW2
2023 - Hamas attacks Israel, Sudanese civil war/genocide
2024 - Israel Iran Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas engaged in conflict
2025 - Trump 2.0!
How dare you post evidence that things are going to be fine. Don't you know people want to freak out?
So… you’d say that everything was fine after each of these events?
-
This is a good opportunity to update Dividendman's list of significant events where people tend to question their market strategies. Is Trump 2.0 bigger than...
1900 - Italy's king is assasinated
1901 - Queen Victoria dies, President McKinley is assassinated
1903 - plague in India and China, killing over 12 million pepole
1904 - Russia and Japan go to war
1905 - Russia has a bloody revolution
1906 - San Francisco burns down
1908 - a massive explosion mysteriously happens in Russia, leveling 830 square miles. Truks revolt in the Ottoman empire, a massive earthquake in Italy kills 150 thousand people
1909 - Japan's prince is assasinated
1911 - The Chinese bloody revolution
1912 - the Titanic Sinks
1913 - personal income tax introduced in the US
1914 - WWI starts
1915 - WWI still going, millions dying, Armenian genocide is going on
1916 - yep, WWI still going, tanks and chemical weapons being used, airplanes for dropping bombs
1917 - another russian revolution, this time to communism, WWI still going and the US joins in
1918 - WWI still going, but who cares, the Spanish flu kills 100 MILLION people, 5% of the world's population
1919 - WWI finally ends, spanish flu still killing though
1920 - another plague in India, US outlaws alcohol
1921 - german hyper inflation going on, the Irish declare independence
1922 - some guy named Mussolini takes over Italy
1923 - some dude named Hitler has a failed coup in germany - woo, the world lucked out
1929 - the great depression starts
1930 - Stalin starts killing people all over the place, great depression
1931 - yup, still in the depression
1932 - still there, nothing is getting better
1933 - still depressed, and this time Hitler takes over germany
1934 - The dust bowl starts peaking... i.e. a decade of drought, no crops, everyone starving, this keeps going until 1939!
1935 - dangerous communist social program started in the US (Social Security)
1936 - spanish civil war begins, stalin ramps up his killings into the millions
1937 - Japan invades china
1938 - Hitler annexes Austria, at least he's stopping there
1939 - whoops, maybe, not WWII starts... millions killed, trillions infrastructure wiped out in Europe and across the world
1940 - Nazi's start murdering millions of civilian "undesirables", FDR takes 3rd term ignoring Washington's precedent
1941 - Japan bombs pearl harbor, world still f'd up in a huge war, Vietnam turns communist
1942 - is the warover? nope, just ramping up, millions more dying
1943 - everyone is still dying in WW2
1945 - woohoo, WWII is over, oh wait, that happened by dropping a devastating indiscriminate nuclear radiation bombs on civilians! oh, and FDR died in office
1946 - peace in our time! except the USSR annexes half of europe, which is a pile of rubble thanks to carpet bombing
1947 - India and Pakistan gain independence from Great Britian, and then go to war against each other
1948 - Israel founded, that won't cause any problems. Ghandi gets assassinated
1949 - China becomes communist, USSR, the nemesis of hte free world, gains nuclear weapons
1950 - whoops, another devastating total war, this time in Korea, but not between Koreans, a proxy war between the US/Russia/China and others
1952 - we get a polio vaccine... wait what? Oh yeah, people were getting f'd up by polio for the last forever years
1954 - segregation is ruled illegal in the US, so race relations are finally fixed
1955 - Warsaw pact created, basically a bunch of countries banded together to defeat america/western capitalist democracies
1956 - Hungarian revoltion, Suez crisis
1957 - Russians beat everyone into space
1960 - a 9.6 magnitude earthquake, the biggest ever recorded hits chili, lots of people die, civil rights riots and protests start happening
1961 - US backed rebels unsuccessfully invade Cuba, Berlin wall goes up, more civil rights disruptions, Soviets get the first man in space, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever denoted is denoted, we can now destroy the world
1962 - Now that we have the bombs to blow up the world, the Cuban missile crisis happens, which almost blows up the word
1963 - another president killed in office
1964 - civil rights act passed, ok, now race relations are good for sure, no more civil rights disruptions ever
1965 - US sends a few troops to Vietnam just in case, Malcom X is assassinated, India and Pakistan go to war again
1966 - Chairman Mao has a cultural revolution in china, lots die, the US institutes the draft
1967 - the Australian PM disappears, the six day war between Israel and it's neighbors happens, civil rights unrest continues
1968 - MLK Jr. assassinated, RFK assassinated, Tet Offensive in Vietnam happens, yeah, the Vietnam war is going full speed ahead
1971 - the US capitalist system institutes wage and price controls, India and Pakistan go to war again
1972 - Vietnam war still going on
1973 - US declares victory and leaves vietnam, the US can't get oil because of an embargo
1974 - the US president up and quits
1975 - big Cambodian genocide, Civil war in lebanon, the US president escapes two assassination attempts
1976 - Tangshan earthquake kills a quarter million folks, Vietnam is all communist now
1979 - Iranian revolution, a US nuclear reactor has a partial meltdown
1980 - mount st helens erupts, the US embargoes the USSR, US inflation hits 14%, Iran Iraq war starts, and goes on for 8 years
1981 - someone tries to kill the US president, again
1982 - Falkands war starts, Lebanon war starts
1983 - US embassy bombed, a bunch of coups happening, USSR downs a korean airliner, famine in ethiopia kills half million
1984 - India's PM assassinated
1986 - Russian nuclear reactor melts down
1987 - black monday in US markets
1989 - berlin wall falls, USSR breaking up
1990 - Persian gulf war, Germany reunites, US doing more coupy type things in south america
1991 - USSR officially collapses, Balkans war starts, bosnian genocide starts
1994 - massive genocide in rwanda
1995 - Sarin gas is used in a Tokyo subway, Rabin assassinated
1996 - mad cow disease
1998 - india and pakistan test nukes
1999 - India and pakistan go to war and they have nukes
2000 - .com bust
2000 - election decided by the supreme court
2001 - 9/11, Afghanistan war
2002 - Euro currency created
2003 - 2nd gulf war started
2004 - Indian Ocean Tsunami, killing over 200k people instantly and displacing millions. Facebook is created.
2005 - Hurricane katrina, Youtube online
2006 - Israel lebanon war, North Korea gets Nukes
2007 - Great recession starts
2008 - A cyclone in china and earthquake in myanmar kill over 200k
2009 - great recession continues
2010 - arab spring starts
2011 - Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, Syrian and Libyan civil wars
2014 - ISIS forms, Ebola outbreak in Africa, Russia annexes Crimea
2016 - Trump 1.0
2017 - Rohingya genocide, ISIS captures Mosul
2018 - Venezuelan refugee crisis intensifies, with over 5 Million refugees leaving the country
2019 - Brexit, US-China tariff/trade war continues, Hong Kong democracy protests quashed
2020 - COVID worldwide pandemic
2021 - Taliban recapture Afghanistan
2022 - Russia invades Ukraine in the largest European invasion since WW2
2023 - Hamas attacks Israel, Sudanese civil war/genocide
2024 - Israel Iran Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas engaged in conflict
2025 - Trump 2.0!
How dare you post evidence that things are going to be fine. Don't you know people want to freak out?
So… you’d say that everything was fine after each of these events?
Better than fine. We are living in the best time to be alive in all history. We are living in a time so stinking rich, that there are entire forums online showing people how to retire early and live off their wealth.
-
I remember seeing a similar list on this forum but it included the 1993 Lorena Bobbitt 'incident' lol.
I can't seem to find it now.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/john-bobbitt-speaks-25-years-wife-infamously-cut/story?id=60023049
-
This is a good opportunity to update Dividendman's list of significant events where people tend to question their market strategies. Is Trump 2.0 bigger than...
1900 - Italy's king is assasinated
1901 - Queen Victoria dies, President McKinley is assassinated
1903 - plague in India and China, killing over 12 million pepole
1904 - Russia and Japan go to war
1905 - Russia has a bloody revolution
1906 - San Francisco burns down
1908 - a massive explosion mysteriously happens in Russia, leveling 830 square miles. Truks revolt in the Ottoman empire, a massive earthquake in Italy kills 150 thousand people
1909 - Japan's prince is assasinated
1911 - The Chinese bloody revolution
1912 - the Titanic Sinks
1913 - personal income tax introduced in the US
1914 - WWI starts
1915 - WWI still going, millions dying, Armenian genocide is going on
1916 - yep, WWI still going, tanks and chemical weapons being used, airplanes for dropping bombs
1917 - another russian revolution, this time to communism, WWI still going and the US joins in
1918 - WWI still going, but who cares, the Spanish flu kills 100 MILLION people, 5% of the world's population
1919 - WWI finally ends, spanish flu still killing though
1920 - another plague in India, US outlaws alcohol
1921 - german hyper inflation going on, the Irish declare independence
1922 - some guy named Mussolini takes over Italy
1923 - some dude named Hitler has a failed coup in germany - woo, the world lucked out
1929 - the great depression starts
1930 - Stalin starts killing people all over the place, great depression
1931 - yup, still in the depression
1932 - still there, nothing is getting better
1933 - still depressed, and this time Hitler takes over germany
1934 - The dust bowl starts peaking... i.e. a decade of drought, no crops, everyone starving, this keeps going until 1939!
1935 - dangerous communist social program started in the US (Social Security)
1936 - spanish civil war begins, stalin ramps up his killings into the millions
1937 - Japan invades china
1938 - Hitler annexes Austria, at least he's stopping there
1939 - whoops, maybe, not WWII starts... millions killed, trillions infrastructure wiped out in Europe and across the world
1940 - Nazi's start murdering millions of civilian "undesirables", FDR takes 3rd term ignoring Washington's precedent
1941 - Japan bombs pearl harbor, world still f'd up in a huge war, Vietnam turns communist
1942 - is the warover? nope, just ramping up, millions more dying
1943 - everyone is still dying in WW2
1945 - woohoo, WWII is over, oh wait, that happened by dropping a devastating indiscriminate nuclear radiation bombs on civilians! oh, and FDR died in office
1946 - peace in our time! except the USSR annexes half of europe, which is a pile of rubble thanks to carpet bombing
1947 - India and Pakistan gain independence from Great Britian, and then go to war against each other
1948 - Israel founded, that won't cause any problems. Ghandi gets assassinated
1949 - China becomes communist, USSR, the nemesis of hte free world, gains nuclear weapons
1950 - whoops, another devastating total war, this time in Korea, but not between Koreans, a proxy war between the US/Russia/China and others
1952 - we get a polio vaccine... wait what? Oh yeah, people were getting f'd up by polio for the last forever years
1954 - segregation is ruled illegal in the US, so race relations are finally fixed
1955 - Warsaw pact created, basically a bunch of countries banded together to defeat america/western capitalist democracies
1956 - Hungarian revoltion, Suez crisis
1957 - Russians beat everyone into space
1960 - a 9.6 magnitude earthquake, the biggest ever recorded hits chili, lots of people die, civil rights riots and protests start happening
1961 - US backed rebels unsuccessfully invade Cuba, Berlin wall goes up, more civil rights disruptions, Soviets get the first man in space, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever denoted is denoted, we can now destroy the world
1962 - Now that we have the bombs to blow up the world, the Cuban missile crisis happens, which almost blows up the word
1963 - another president killed in office
1964 - civil rights act passed, ok, now race relations are good for sure, no more civil rights disruptions ever
1965 - US sends a few troops to Vietnam just in case, Malcom X is assassinated, India and Pakistan go to war again
1966 - Chairman Mao has a cultural revolution in china, lots die, the US institutes the draft
1967 - the Australian PM disappears, the six day war between Israel and it's neighbors happens, civil rights unrest continues
1968 - MLK Jr. assassinated, RFK assassinated, Tet Offensive in Vietnam happens, yeah, the Vietnam war is going full speed ahead
1971 - the US capitalist system institutes wage and price controls, India and Pakistan go to war again
1972 - Vietnam war still going on
1973 - US declares victory and leaves vietnam, the US can't get oil because of an embargo
1974 - the US president up and quits
1975 - big Cambodian genocide, Civil war in lebanon, the US president escapes two assassination attempts
1976 - Tangshan earthquake kills a quarter million folks, Vietnam is all communist now
1979 - Iranian revolution, a US nuclear reactor has a partial meltdown
1980 - mount st helens erupts, the US embargoes the USSR, US inflation hits 14%, Iran Iraq war starts, and goes on for 8 years
1981 - someone tries to kill the US president, again
1982 - Falkands war starts, Lebanon war starts
1983 - US embassy bombed, a bunch of coups happening, USSR downs a korean airliner, famine in ethiopia kills half million
1984 - India's PM assassinated
1986 - Russian nuclear reactor melts down
1987 - black monday in US markets
1989 - berlin wall falls, USSR breaking up
1990 - Persian gulf war, Germany reunites, US doing more coupy type things in south america
1991 - USSR officially collapses, Balkans war starts, bosnian genocide starts
1994 - massive genocide in rwanda
1995 - Sarin gas is used in a Tokyo subway, Rabin assassinated
1996 - mad cow disease
1998 - india and pakistan test nukes
1999 - India and pakistan go to war and they have nukes
2000 - .com bust
2000 - election decided by the supreme court
2001 - 9/11, Afghanistan war
2002 - Euro currency created
2003 - 2nd gulf war started
2004 - Indian Ocean Tsunami, killing over 200k people instantly and displacing millions. Facebook is created.
2005 - Hurricane katrina, Youtube online
2006 - Israel lebanon war, North Korea gets Nukes
2007 - Great recession starts
2008 - A cyclone in china and earthquake in myanmar kill over 200k
2009 - great recession continues
2010 - arab spring starts
2011 - Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, Syrian and Libyan civil wars
2014 - ISIS forms, Ebola outbreak in Africa, Russia annexes Crimea
2016 - Trump 1.0
2017 - Rohingya genocide, ISIS captures Mosul
2018 - Venezuelan refugee crisis intensifies, with over 5 Million refugees leaving the country
2019 - Brexit, US-China tariff/trade war continues, Hong Kong democracy protests quashed
2020 - COVID worldwide pandemic
2021 - Taliban recapture Afghanistan
2022 - Russia invades Ukraine in the largest European invasion since WW2
2023 - Hamas attacks Israel, Sudanese civil war/genocide
2024 - Israel Iran Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas engaged in conflict
2025 - Trump 2.0!
How dare you post evidence that things are going to be fine. Don't you know people want to freak out?
So… you’d say that everything was fine after each of these events?
Better than fine. We are living in the best time to be alive in all history. We are living in a time so stinking rich, that there are entire forums online showing people how to retire early and live off their wealth.
I think the bolded is one of the key parts that people are concerned about. Quite a lot of those events resulted in hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths. Hard to enjoy being stinking rich if you're dead.
-
I remember seeing a similar list on this forum but it included the 1993 Lorena Bobbitt 'incident' lol.
I can't seem to find it now.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/john-bobbitt-speaks-25-years-wife-infamously-cut/story?id=60023049
The biggest crime there is how ABC managed to make a 2 hour (!) documentary about some dude having his dick cut off!
The marriage was going great, but then it was all cut short..
-
This is a good opportunity to update Dividendman's list of significant events where people tend to question their market strategies. Is Trump 2.0 bigger than...
1900 - Italy's king is assasinated
1901 - Queen Victoria dies, President McKinley is assassinated
1903 - plague in India and China, killing over 12 million pepole
1904 - Russia and Japan go to war
1905 - Russia has a bloody revolution
1906 - San Francisco burns down
1908 - a massive explosion mysteriously happens in Russia, leveling 830 square miles. Truks revolt in the Ottoman empire, a massive earthquake in Italy kills 150 thousand people
1909 - Japan's prince is assasinated
1911 - The Chinese bloody revolution
1912 - the Titanic Sinks
1913 - personal income tax introduced in the US
1914 - WWI starts
1915 - WWI still going, millions dying, Armenian genocide is going on
1916 - yep, WWI still going, tanks and chemical weapons being used, airplanes for dropping bombs
1917 - another russian revolution, this time to communism, WWI still going and the US joins in
1918 - WWI still going, but who cares, the Spanish flu kills 100 MILLION people, 5% of the world's population
1919 - WWI finally ends, spanish flu still killing though
1920 - another plague in India, US outlaws alcohol
1921 - german hyper inflation going on, the Irish declare independence
1922 - some guy named Mussolini takes over Italy
1923 - some dude named Hitler has a failed coup in germany - woo, the world lucked out
1929 - the great depression starts
1930 - Stalin starts killing people all over the place, great depression
1931 - yup, still in the depression
1932 - still there, nothing is getting better
1933 - still depressed, and this time Hitler takes over germany
1934 - The dust bowl starts peaking... i.e. a decade of drought, no crops, everyone starving, this keeps going until 1939!
1935 - dangerous communist social program started in the US (Social Security)
1936 - spanish civil war begins, stalin ramps up his killings into the millions
1937 - Japan invades china
1938 - Hitler annexes Austria, at least he's stopping there
1939 - whoops, maybe, not WWII starts... millions killed, trillions infrastructure wiped out in Europe and across the world
1940 - Nazi's start murdering millions of civilian "undesirables", FDR takes 3rd term ignoring Washington's precedent
1941 - Japan bombs pearl harbor, world still f'd up in a huge war, Vietnam turns communist
1942 - is the warover? nope, just ramping up, millions more dying
1943 - everyone is still dying in WW2
1945 - woohoo, WWII is over, oh wait, that happened by dropping a devastating indiscriminate nuclear radiation bombs on civilians! oh, and FDR died in office
1946 - peace in our time! except the USSR annexes half of europe, which is a pile of rubble thanks to carpet bombing
1947 - India and Pakistan gain independence from Great Britian, and then go to war against each other
1948 - Israel founded, that won't cause any problems. Ghandi gets assassinated
1949 - China becomes communist, USSR, the nemesis of hte free world, gains nuclear weapons
1950 - whoops, another devastating total war, this time in Korea, but not between Koreans, a proxy war between the US/Russia/China and others
1952 - we get a polio vaccine... wait what? Oh yeah, people were getting f'd up by polio for the last forever years
1954 - segregation is ruled illegal in the US, so race relations are finally fixed
1955 - Warsaw pact created, basically a bunch of countries banded together to defeat america/western capitalist democracies
1956 - Hungarian revoltion, Suez crisis
1957 - Russians beat everyone into space
1960 - a 9.6 magnitude earthquake, the biggest ever recorded hits chili, lots of people die, civil rights riots and protests start happening
1961 - US backed rebels unsuccessfully invade Cuba, Berlin wall goes up, more civil rights disruptions, Soviets get the first man in space, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever denoted is denoted, we can now destroy the world
1962 - Now that we have the bombs to blow up the world, the Cuban missile crisis happens, which almost blows up the word
1963 - another president killed in office
1964 - civil rights act passed, ok, now race relations are good for sure, no more civil rights disruptions ever
1965 - US sends a few troops to Vietnam just in case, Malcom X is assassinated, India and Pakistan go to war again
1966 - Chairman Mao has a cultural revolution in china, lots die, the US institutes the draft
1967 - the Australian PM disappears, the six day war between Israel and it's neighbors happens, civil rights unrest continues
1968 - MLK Jr. assassinated, RFK assassinated, Tet Offensive in Vietnam happens, yeah, the Vietnam war is going full speed ahead
1971 - the US capitalist system institutes wage and price controls, India and Pakistan go to war again
1972 - Vietnam war still going on
1973 - US declares victory and leaves vietnam, the US can't get oil because of an embargo
1974 - the US president up and quits
1975 - big Cambodian genocide, Civil war in lebanon, the US president escapes two assassination attempts
1976 - Tangshan earthquake kills a quarter million folks, Vietnam is all communist now
1979 - Iranian revolution, a US nuclear reactor has a partial meltdown
1980 - mount st helens erupts, the US embargoes the USSR, US inflation hits 14%, Iran Iraq war starts, and goes on for 8 years
1981 - someone tries to kill the US president, again
1982 - Falkands war starts, Lebanon war starts
1983 - US embassy bombed, a bunch of coups happening, USSR downs a korean airliner, famine in ethiopia kills half million
1984 - India's PM assassinated
1986 - Russian nuclear reactor melts down
1987 - black monday in US markets
1989 - berlin wall falls, USSR breaking up
1990 - Persian gulf war, Germany reunites, US doing more coupy type things in south america
1991 - USSR officially collapses, Balkans war starts, bosnian genocide starts
1994 - massive genocide in rwanda
1995 - Sarin gas is used in a Tokyo subway, Rabin assassinated
1996 - mad cow disease
1998 - india and pakistan test nukes
1999 - India and pakistan go to war and they have nukes
2000 - .com bust
2000 - election decided by the supreme court
2001 - 9/11, Afghanistan war
2002 - Euro currency created
2003 - 2nd gulf war started
2004 - Indian Ocean Tsunami, killing over 200k people instantly and displacing millions. Facebook is created.
2005 - Hurricane katrina, Youtube online
2006 - Israel lebanon war, North Korea gets Nukes
2007 - Great recession starts
2008 - A cyclone in china and earthquake in myanmar kill over 200k
2009 - great recession continues
2010 - arab spring starts
2011 - Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, Syrian and Libyan civil wars
2014 - ISIS forms, Ebola outbreak in Africa, Russia annexes Crimea
2016 - Trump 1.0
2017 - Rohingya genocide, ISIS captures Mosul
2018 - Venezuelan refugee crisis intensifies, with over 5 Million refugees leaving the country
2019 - Brexit, US-China tariff/trade war continues, Hong Kong democracy protests quashed
2020 - COVID worldwide pandemic
2021 - Taliban recapture Afghanistan
2022 - Russia invades Ukraine in the largest European invasion since WW2
2023 - Hamas attacks Israel, Sudanese civil war/genocide
2024 - Israel Iran Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas engaged in conflict
2025 - Trump 2.0!
How dare you post evidence that things are going to be fine. Don't you know people want to freak out?
So… you’d say that everything was fine after each of these events?
Better than fine. We are living in the best time to be alive in all history. We are living in a time so stinking rich, that there are entire forums online showing people how to retire early and live off their wealth.
I think the bolded is one of the key parts that people are concerned about. Quite a lot of those events resulted in hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths. Hard to enjoy being stinking rich if you're dead.
The statement "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" is demonstrably false.
If you lived in the UK through Brexit (as an example), you are about 2000 pounds worse off on average. (3400 if you live in London.) https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit (https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit) - So for the average person in the UK, this is pretty clearly not the best time in history to be alive. That time would have been pre-Brexit.
Same holds true in many cases. Hard not to argue that the average person living in Ukraine was a lot happier and better off in 2021 than today. Any Palestinian living in Gaza was doing better in 2020 than today. Afghanistan has always been pretty rough, but certainly for women it is much worse today than it was in 2020.
But fuck those people. They live far away. So maybe the idea is to tell people in the US that they're living in the best time to be alive in all history? Well, after two prior decades of increasing, happiness among children aged 13-19 in the US has precipitously declined since 2011 (https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2019/the-sad-state-of-happiness-in-the-united-states-and-the-role-of-digital-media/ (https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2019/the-sad-state-of-happiness-in-the-united-states-and-the-role-of-digital-media/)). Internet usage, availability of porn, social media, sexting, a reduction of in-person time for relationships and experiences, ubiquitousness of cellphones everywhere - these things are making the world that we live in worse for people growing up in it. Home affordability, a constantly changing job market (and extreme career uncertainty), concentration of wealth and power into the hands of a few elite, secondary educational debt, rampant and ever increasing environmental damage . . . these are serious systemic and unaddressed problems that exist for young working age people. I don't think you can say that we're in the best time to be alive in all history without taking into account that people (especially young people) are much less happy than they were twenty years ago.
Now, absolutely we do live in a pretty good time historically. We aren't being stabbed to death for animal pelts or starving most of the time. But you shouldn't let that build complacency or blind you to the backslide that has been going on in a great many areas around the world though. In a great many areas we are not improving quality of life, security, or happiness. That's a serious problem that deserves a better shake than the platitude "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history".
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Yeah... my list wasn't to show things are getting better or worse, but that US equities have managed despite terrible events of the past century+. And that while Trump may be a large disruption and may even cause a recession and equities to decline in value, they're probably still the best bet in the long run for passive wealth accumulation.
-
This is a good opportunity to update Dividendman's list of significant events where people tend to question their market strategies. Is Trump 2.0 bigger than...
1900 - Italy's king is assasinated
1901 - Queen Victoria dies, President McKinley is assassinated
1903 - plague in India and China, killing over 12 million pepole
1904 - Russia and Japan go to war
1905 - Russia has a bloody revolution
1906 - San Francisco burns down
1908 - a massive explosion mysteriously happens in Russia, leveling 830 square miles. Truks revolt in the Ottoman empire, a massive earthquake in Italy kills 150 thousand people
1909 - Japan's prince is assasinated
1911 - The Chinese bloody revolution
1912 - the Titanic Sinks
1913 - personal income tax introduced in the US
1914 - WWI starts
1915 - WWI still going, millions dying, Armenian genocide is going on
1916 - yep, WWI still going, tanks and chemical weapons being used, airplanes for dropping bombs
1917 - another russian revolution, this time to communism, WWI still going and the US joins in
1918 - WWI still going, but who cares, the Spanish flu kills 100 MILLION people, 5% of the world's population
1919 - WWI finally ends, spanish flu still killing though
1920 - another plague in India, US outlaws alcohol
1921 - german hyper inflation going on, the Irish declare independence
1922 - some guy named Mussolini takes over Italy
1923 - some dude named Hitler has a failed coup in germany - woo, the world lucked out
1929 - the great depression starts
1930 - Stalin starts killing people all over the place, great depression
1931 - yup, still in the depression
1932 - still there, nothing is getting better
1933 - still depressed, and this time Hitler takes over germany
1934 - The dust bowl starts peaking... i.e. a decade of drought, no crops, everyone starving, this keeps going until 1939!
1935 - dangerous communist social program started in the US (Social Security)
1936 - spanish civil war begins, stalin ramps up his killings into the millions
1937 - Japan invades china
1938 - Hitler annexes Austria, at least he's stopping there
1939 - whoops, maybe, not WWII starts... millions killed, trillions infrastructure wiped out in Europe and across the world
1940 - Nazi's start murdering millions of civilian "undesirables", FDR takes 3rd term ignoring Washington's precedent
1941 - Japan bombs pearl harbor, world still f'd up in a huge war, Vietnam turns communist
1942 - is the warover? nope, just ramping up, millions more dying
1943 - everyone is still dying in WW2
1945 - woohoo, WWII is over, oh wait, that happened by dropping a devastating indiscriminate nuclear radiation bombs on civilians! oh, and FDR died in office
1946 - peace in our time! except the USSR annexes half of europe, which is a pile of rubble thanks to carpet bombing
1947 - India and Pakistan gain independence from Great Britian, and then go to war against each other
1948 - Israel founded, that won't cause any problems. Ghandi gets assassinated
1949 - China becomes communist, USSR, the nemesis of hte free world, gains nuclear weapons
1950 - whoops, another devastating total war, this time in Korea, but not between Koreans, a proxy war between the US/Russia/China and others
1952 - we get a polio vaccine... wait what? Oh yeah, people were getting f'd up by polio for the last forever years
1954 - segregation is ruled illegal in the US, so race relations are finally fixed
1955 - Warsaw pact created, basically a bunch of countries banded together to defeat america/western capitalist democracies
1956 - Hungarian revoltion, Suez crisis
1957 - Russians beat everyone into space
1960 - a 9.6 magnitude earthquake, the biggest ever recorded hits chili, lots of people die, civil rights riots and protests start happening
1961 - US backed rebels unsuccessfully invade Cuba, Berlin wall goes up, more civil rights disruptions, Soviets get the first man in space, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever denoted is denoted, we can now destroy the world
1962 - Now that we have the bombs to blow up the world, the Cuban missile crisis happens, which almost blows up the word
1963 - another president killed in office
1964 - civil rights act passed, ok, now race relations are good for sure, no more civil rights disruptions ever
1965 - US sends a few troops to Vietnam just in case, Malcom X is assassinated, India and Pakistan go to war again
1966 - Chairman Mao has a cultural revolution in china, lots die, the US institutes the draft
1967 - the Australian PM disappears, the six day war between Israel and it's neighbors happens, civil rights unrest continues
1968 - MLK Jr. assassinated, RFK assassinated, Tet Offensive in Vietnam happens, yeah, the Vietnam war is going full speed ahead
1971 - the US capitalist system institutes wage and price controls, India and Pakistan go to war again
1972 - Vietnam war still going on
1973 - US declares victory and leaves vietnam, the US can't get oil because of an embargo
1974 - the US president up and quits
1975 - big Cambodian genocide, Civil war in lebanon, the US president escapes two assassination attempts
1976 - Tangshan earthquake kills a quarter million folks, Vietnam is all communist now
1979 - Iranian revolution, a US nuclear reactor has a partial meltdown
1980 - mount st helens erupts, the US embargoes the USSR, US inflation hits 14%, Iran Iraq war starts, and goes on for 8 years
1981 - someone tries to kill the US president, again
1982 - Falkands war starts, Lebanon war starts
1983 - US embassy bombed, a bunch of coups happening, USSR downs a korean airliner, famine in ethiopia kills half million
1984 - India's PM assassinated
1986 - Russian nuclear reactor melts down
1987 - black monday in US markets
1989 - berlin wall falls, USSR breaking up
1990 - Persian gulf war, Germany reunites, US doing more coupy type things in south america
1991 - USSR officially collapses, Balkans war starts, bosnian genocide starts
1994 - massive genocide in rwanda
1995 - Sarin gas is used in a Tokyo subway, Rabin assassinated
1996 - mad cow disease
1998 - india and pakistan test nukes
1999 - India and pakistan go to war and they have nukes
2000 - .com bust
2000 - election decided by the supreme court
2001 - 9/11, Afghanistan war
2002 - Euro currency created
2003 - 2nd gulf war started
2004 - Indian Ocean Tsunami, killing over 200k people instantly and displacing millions. Facebook is created.
2005 - Hurricane katrina, Youtube online
2006 - Israel lebanon war, North Korea gets Nukes
2007 - Great recession starts
2008 - A cyclone in china and earthquake in myanmar kill over 200k
2009 - great recession continues
2010 - arab spring starts
2011 - Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, Syrian and Libyan civil wars
2014 - ISIS forms, Ebola outbreak in Africa, Russia annexes Crimea
2016 - Trump 1.0
2017 - Rohingya genocide, ISIS captures Mosul
2018 - Venezuelan refugee crisis intensifies, with over 5 Million refugees leaving the country
2019 - Brexit, US-China tariff/trade war continues, Hong Kong democracy protests quashed
2020 - COVID worldwide pandemic
2021 - Taliban recapture Afghanistan
2022 - Russia invades Ukraine in the largest European invasion since WW2
2023 - Hamas attacks Israel, Sudanese civil war/genocide
2024 - Israel Iran Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas engaged in conflict
2025 - Trump 2.0!
How dare you post evidence that things are going to be fine. Don't you know people want to freak out?
So… you’d say that everything was fine after each of these events?
Better than fine. We are living in the best time to be alive in all history. We are living in a time so stinking rich, that there are entire forums online showing people how to retire early and live off their wealth.
I think the bolded is one of the key parts that people are concerned about. Quite a lot of those events resulted in hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths. Hard to enjoy being stinking rich if you're dead.
The statement "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" is demonstrably false.
If you lived in the UK through Brexit (as an example), you are about 2000 pounds worse off on average. (3400 if you live in London.) https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit (https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit) - So for the average person in the UK, this is pretty clearly not the best time in history to be alive. That time would have been pre-Brexit.
Same holds true in many cases. Hard not to argue that the average person living in Ukraine was a lot happier and better off in 2021 than today. Any Palestinian living in Gaza was doing better in 2020 than today. Afghanistan has always been pretty rough, but certainly for women it is much worse today than it was in 2020.
But fuck those people. They live far away. So maybe the idea is to tell people in the US that they're living in the best time to be alive in all history? Well, after two prior decades of increasing, happiness among children aged 13-19 in the US has precipitously declined since 2011 (https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2019/the-sad-state-of-happiness-in-the-united-states-and-the-role-of-digital-media/ (https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2019/the-sad-state-of-happiness-in-the-united-states-and-the-role-of-digital-media/)). Internet usage, availability of porn, social media, sexting, a reduction of in-person time for relationships and experiences, ubiquitousness of cellphones everywhere - these things are making the world that we live in worse for people growing up in it. Home affordability, a constantly changing job market (and extreme career uncertainty), concentration of wealth and power into the hands of a few elite, secondary educational debt, rampant and ever increasing environmental damage . . . these are serious systemic and unaddressed problems that exist for young working age people. I don't think you can say that we're in the best time to be alive in all history without taking into account that people (especially young people) are much less happy than they were twenty years ago.
Now, absolutely we do live in a pretty good time historically. We aren't being stabbed to death for animal pelts or starving most of the time. But you shouldn't let that build complacency or blind you to the backslide that has been going on in a great many areas around the world though. In a great many areas we are not improving quality of life, security, or happiness. That's a serious problem that deserves a better shake than the platitude "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history".
"The statement "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" is demonstrably false."
I respectfully disagree. I've seen too many documentaries and speeches from authors and scientists who have studied the history of humanity and they generally conclude that now is the best time to be alive. I agree that we are in troubling times, but it's easy to focus on individual examples of our failings and not recognize the incremental progress we are making. Here is a recent opinion article covering this very topic:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/opinion/2024-child-mortality-poverty-growth.html
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Yeah... my list wasn't to show things are getting better or worse, but that US equities have managed despite terrible events of the past century+. And that while Trump may be a large disruption and may even cause a recession and equities to decline in value, they're probably still the best bet in the long run for passive wealth accumulation.
Berkshire Hathaway's growing pile of cash is perfect example of how someone could think that now is the time to get out of or at least reduce their equity exposure. How many articles and YouTube videos are posted each month/year predicting economic doom? It's an easy trap to fall into. For me, it's not the crash that's concerning, it's the length of the crash or the time it takes to recover. For example, if the market crashes severely and we enter a state of stagnation for the next 5-10 years, we could watch our portfolios erode, along with our long-term financial stability.
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Agreed. But in my case I don’t already have any Schwab so I don’t feel the need to invest with them.
They are supposed to be the best bank account/credit card combo for USians traveling or temporarily living abroad. Someone in another thread mentioned Interactive Brokers for that purpose. Can someone who has traveled more recently chime in on alternatives?
Yes, I moved to Schwab years ago partially because I travel abroad occasionally and they are one of the recommended options for debit cards for that. You can get cash from any ATM, including abroad, with a "fair" exchange rate, and zero fee. And they'll refund you that "this ATM charge a $4 fee". The other option that I know of is the Fidelity debit card. There might be other options, but I don't know or remember them now.
Living, and investing, abroad is obviously more complicated. Due to FATCA and KYC rules most brokers will refuse to do business with you. And this is another reason I'm sticking with Schwab; they actively offer investing services to non-US residents, with their "international" offering, and i believe they have some offices abroad
https://international.schwab.com/
Fidelity is not as helpful, and take the line similar to Vanguard and other brokerages. They will at least not liquidate your account (how kind..), but they will also severely restrict what you can do if you're a non-US resident.
https://www.fidelity.com/accounts/services/investors_outside_US_faq.shtml
It seems like IBKR's offers a service similar to Schwab, so could be another option. I do like that Schwab also has bank service, and I trust them more than IB just based on brand recognition (to me IB is more of a service is see mentioned for the daytrader/WSB types).
I have no experience with either options, so can't speak to actually using it. But just from my research, at least Schwab seems more geared towards these customers and have a system in place.
Thanks! Schwab sounds like a good enough option for visiting family/possibly a month of slow travel/having easy access to cash for emergencies.
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This is a good opportunity to update Dividendman's list of significant events where people tend to question their market strategies. Is Trump 2.0 bigger than...
1900 - Italy's king is assasinated
1901 - Queen Victoria dies, President McKinley is assassinated
1903 - plague in India and China, killing over 12 million pepole
1904 - Russia and Japan go to war
1905 - Russia has a bloody revolution
1906 - San Francisco burns down
1908 - a massive explosion mysteriously happens in Russia, leveling 830 square miles. Truks revolt in the Ottoman empire, a massive earthquake in Italy kills 150 thousand people
1909 - Japan's prince is assasinated
1911 - The Chinese bloody revolution
1912 - the Titanic Sinks
1913 - personal income tax introduced in the US
1914 - WWI starts
1915 - WWI still going, millions dying, Armenian genocide is going on
1916 - yep, WWI still going, tanks and chemical weapons being used, airplanes for dropping bombs
1917 - another russian revolution, this time to communism, WWI still going and the US joins in
1918 - WWI still going, but who cares, the Spanish flu kills 100 MILLION people, 5% of the world's population
1919 - WWI finally ends, spanish flu still killing though
1920 - another plague in India, US outlaws alcohol
1921 - german hyper inflation going on, the Irish declare independence
1922 - some guy named Mussolini takes over Italy
1923 - some dude named Hitler has a failed coup in germany - woo, the world lucked out
1929 - the great depression starts
1930 - Stalin starts killing people all over the place, great depression
1931 - yup, still in the depression
1932 - still there, nothing is getting better
1933 - still depressed, and this time Hitler takes over germany
1934 - The dust bowl starts peaking... i.e. a decade of drought, no crops, everyone starving, this keeps going until 1939!
1935 - dangerous communist social program started in the US (Social Security)
1936 - spanish civil war begins, stalin ramps up his killings into the millions
1937 - Japan invades china
1938 - Hitler annexes Austria, at least he's stopping there
1939 - whoops, maybe, not WWII starts... millions killed, trillions infrastructure wiped out in Europe and across the world
1940 - Nazi's start murdering millions of civilian "undesirables", FDR takes 3rd term ignoring Washington's precedent
1941 - Japan bombs pearl harbor, world still f'd up in a huge war, Vietnam turns communist
1942 - is the warover? nope, just ramping up, millions more dying
1943 - everyone is still dying in WW2
1945 - woohoo, WWII is over, oh wait, that happened by dropping a devastating indiscriminate nuclear radiation bombs on civilians! oh, and FDR died in office
1946 - peace in our time! except the USSR annexes half of europe, which is a pile of rubble thanks to carpet bombing
1947 - India and Pakistan gain independence from Great Britian, and then go to war against each other
1948 - Israel founded, that won't cause any problems. Ghandi gets assassinated
1949 - China becomes communist, USSR, the nemesis of hte free world, gains nuclear weapons
1950 - whoops, another devastating total war, this time in Korea, but not between Koreans, a proxy war between the US/Russia/China and others
1952 - we get a polio vaccine... wait what? Oh yeah, people were getting f'd up by polio for the last forever years
1954 - segregation is ruled illegal in the US, so race relations are finally fixed
1955 - Warsaw pact created, basically a bunch of countries banded together to defeat america/western capitalist democracies
1956 - Hungarian revoltion, Suez crisis
1957 - Russians beat everyone into space
1960 - a 9.6 magnitude earthquake, the biggest ever recorded hits chili, lots of people die, civil rights riots and protests start happening
1961 - US backed rebels unsuccessfully invade Cuba, Berlin wall goes up, more civil rights disruptions, Soviets get the first man in space, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever denoted is denoted, we can now destroy the world
1962 - Now that we have the bombs to blow up the world, the Cuban missile crisis happens, which almost blows up the word
1963 - another president killed in office
1964 - civil rights act passed, ok, now race relations are good for sure, no more civil rights disruptions ever
1965 - US sends a few troops to Vietnam just in case, Malcom X is assassinated, India and Pakistan go to war again
1966 - Chairman Mao has a cultural revolution in china, lots die, the US institutes the draft
1967 - the Australian PM disappears, the six day war between Israel and it's neighbors happens, civil rights unrest continues
1968 - MLK Jr. assassinated, RFK assassinated, Tet Offensive in Vietnam happens, yeah, the Vietnam war is going full speed ahead
1971 - the US capitalist system institutes wage and price controls, India and Pakistan go to war again
1972 - Vietnam war still going on
1973 - US declares victory and leaves vietnam, the US can't get oil because of an embargo
1974 - the US president up and quits
1975 - big Cambodian genocide, Civil war in lebanon, the US president escapes two assassination attempts
1976 - Tangshan earthquake kills a quarter million folks, Vietnam is all communist now
1979 - Iranian revolution, a US nuclear reactor has a partial meltdown
1980 - mount st helens erupts, the US embargoes the USSR, US inflation hits 14%, Iran Iraq war starts, and goes on for 8 years
1981 - someone tries to kill the US president, again
1982 - Falkands war starts, Lebanon war starts
1983 - US embassy bombed, a bunch of coups happening, USSR downs a korean airliner, famine in ethiopia kills half million
1984 - India's PM assassinated
1986 - Russian nuclear reactor melts down
1987 - black monday in US markets
1989 - berlin wall falls, USSR breaking up
1990 - Persian gulf war, Germany reunites, US doing more coupy type things in south america
1991 - USSR officially collapses, Balkans war starts, bosnian genocide starts
1994 - massive genocide in rwanda
1995 - Sarin gas is used in a Tokyo subway, Rabin assassinated
1996 - mad cow disease
1998 - india and pakistan test nukes
1999 - India and pakistan go to war and they have nukes
2000 - .com bust
2000 - election decided by the supreme court
2001 - 9/11, Afghanistan war
2002 - Euro currency created
2003 - 2nd gulf war started
2004 - Indian Ocean Tsunami, killing over 200k people instantly and displacing millions. Facebook is created.
2005 - Hurricane katrina, Youtube online
2006 - Israel lebanon war, North Korea gets Nukes
2007 - Great recession starts
2008 - A cyclone in china and earthquake in myanmar kill over 200k
2009 - great recession continues
2010 - arab spring starts
2011 - Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, Syrian and Libyan civil wars
2014 - ISIS forms, Ebola outbreak in Africa, Russia annexes Crimea
2016 - Trump 1.0
2017 - Rohingya genocide, ISIS captures Mosul
2018 - Venezuelan refugee crisis intensifies, with over 5 Million refugees leaving the country
2019 - Brexit, US-China tariff/trade war continues, Hong Kong democracy protests quashed
2020 - COVID worldwide pandemic
2021 - Taliban recapture Afghanistan
2022 - Russia invades Ukraine in the largest European invasion since WW2
2023 - Hamas attacks Israel, Sudanese civil war/genocide
2024 - Israel Iran Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas engaged in conflict
2025 - Trump 2.0!
How dare you post evidence that things are going to be fine. Don't you know people want to freak out?
So… you’d say that everything was fine after each of these events?
Better than fine. We are living in the best time to be alive in all history. We are living in a time so stinking rich, that there are entire forums online showing people how to retire early and live off their wealth.
I think the bolded is one of the key parts that people are concerned about. Quite a lot of those events resulted in hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths. Hard to enjoy being stinking rich if you're dead.
The statement "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" is demonstrably false.
If you lived in the UK through Brexit (as an example), you are about 2000 pounds worse off on average. (3400 if you live in London.) https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit (https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit) - So for the average person in the UK, this is pretty clearly not the best time in history to be alive. That time would have been pre-Brexit.
Same holds true in many cases. Hard not to argue that the average person living in Ukraine was a lot happier and better off in 2021 than today. Any Palestinian living in Gaza was doing better in 2020 than today. Afghanistan has always been pretty rough, but certainly for women it is much worse today than it was in 2020.
But fuck those people. They live far away. So maybe the idea is to tell people in the US that they're living in the best time to be alive in all history? Well, after two prior decades of increasing, happiness among children aged 13-19 in the US has precipitously declined since 2011 (https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2019/the-sad-state-of-happiness-in-the-united-states-and-the-role-of-digital-media/ (https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2019/the-sad-state-of-happiness-in-the-united-states-and-the-role-of-digital-media/)). Internet usage, availability of porn, social media, sexting, a reduction of in-person time for relationships and experiences, ubiquitousness of cellphones everywhere - these things are making the world that we live in worse for people growing up in it. Home affordability, a constantly changing job market (and extreme career uncertainty), concentration of wealth and power into the hands of a few elite, secondary educational debt, rampant and ever increasing environmental damage . . . these are serious systemic and unaddressed problems that exist for young working age people. I don't think you can say that we're in the best time to be alive in all history without taking into account that people (especially young people) are much less happy than they were twenty years ago.
Now, absolutely we do live in a pretty good time historically. We aren't being stabbed to death for animal pelts or starving most of the time. But you shouldn't let that build complacency or blind you to the backslide that has been going on in a great many areas around the world though. In a great many areas we are not improving quality of life, security, or happiness. That's a serious problem that deserves a better shake than the platitude "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history".
"The statement "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" is demonstrably false."
I respectfully disagree. I've seen too many documentaries and speeches from authors and scientists who have studied the history of humanity and they generally conclude that now is the best time to be alive. I agree that we are in troubling times, but it's easy to focus on individual examples of our failings and not recognize the incremental progress we are making. Here is a recent opinion article covering this very topic:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/opinion/2024-child-mortality-poverty-growth.html
While I respect your opinion, and the opinion of the person who wrote that article . . . that doesn't change the facts. I've listed a great number of people who are measurably worse off today than just a few years ago - which puts to lie the claim being discussed. Your article doesn't mention Britons, Ukranians, women living in Afghanistan, or Gazans. It doesn't make any reference to the crisis of unhappiness currently going on in the United States among young people. These omissions are telling.
It's certainly possible to make the argument that some people in some countries are living in the best time in their history. If you're a middle class, white, 40's or older, cis-gendered man living in the US then the argument is quite persuasive. But you cannot say an all-inclusive "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history". It's all-inclusive and simply objectively and demonstrably false in too many cases.
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In addition to Steve's list I'd add women in the US who no longer have full bodily autonomy.
-
This is a good opportunity to update Dividendman's list of significant events where people tend to question their market strategies. Is Trump 2.0 bigger than...
1900 - Italy's king is assasinated
1901 - Queen Victoria dies, President McKinley is assassinated
1903 - plague in India and China, killing over 12 million pepole
1904 - Russia and Japan go to war
1905 - Russia has a bloody revolution
1906 - San Francisco burns down
1908 - a massive explosion mysteriously happens in Russia, leveling 830 square miles. Truks revolt in the Ottoman empire, a massive earthquake in Italy kills 150 thousand people
1909 - Japan's prince is assasinated
1911 - The Chinese bloody revolution
1912 - the Titanic Sinks
1913 - personal income tax introduced in the US
1914 - WWI starts
1915 - WWI still going, millions dying, Armenian genocide is going on
1916 - yep, WWI still going, tanks and chemical weapons being used, airplanes for dropping bombs
1917 - another russian revolution, this time to communism, WWI still going and the US joins in
1918 - WWI still going, but who cares, the Spanish flu kills 100 MILLION people, 5% of the world's population
1919 - WWI finally ends, spanish flu still killing though
1920 - another plague in India, US outlaws alcohol
1921 - german hyper inflation going on, the Irish declare independence
1922 - some guy named Mussolini takes over Italy
1923 - some dude named Hitler has a failed coup in germany - woo, the world lucked out
1929 - the great depression starts
1930 - Stalin starts killing people all over the place, great depression
1931 - yup, still in the depression
1932 - still there, nothing is getting better
1933 - still depressed, and this time Hitler takes over germany
1934 - The dust bowl starts peaking... i.e. a decade of drought, no crops, everyone starving, this keeps going until 1939!
1935 - dangerous communist social program started in the US (Social Security)
1936 - spanish civil war begins, stalin ramps up his killings into the millions
1937 - Japan invades china
1938 - Hitler annexes Austria, at least he's stopping there
1939 - whoops, maybe, not WWII starts... millions killed, trillions infrastructure wiped out in Europe and across the world
1940 - Nazi's start murdering millions of civilian "undesirables", FDR takes 3rd term ignoring Washington's precedent
1941 - Japan bombs pearl harbor, world still f'd up in a huge war, Vietnam turns communist
1942 - is the warover? nope, just ramping up, millions more dying
1943 - everyone is still dying in WW2
1945 - woohoo, WWII is over, oh wait, that happened by dropping a devastating indiscriminate nuclear radiation bombs on civilians! oh, and FDR died in office
1946 - peace in our time! except the USSR annexes half of europe, which is a pile of rubble thanks to carpet bombing
1947 - India and Pakistan gain independence from Great Britian, and then go to war against each other
1948 - Israel founded, that won't cause any problems. Ghandi gets assassinated
1949 - China becomes communist, USSR, the nemesis of hte free world, gains nuclear weapons
1950 - whoops, another devastating total war, this time in Korea, but not between Koreans, a proxy war between the US/Russia/China and others
1952 - we get a polio vaccine... wait what? Oh yeah, people were getting f'd up by polio for the last forever years
1954 - segregation is ruled illegal in the US, so race relations are finally fixed
1955 - Warsaw pact created, basically a bunch of countries banded together to defeat america/western capitalist democracies
1956 - Hungarian revoltion, Suez crisis
1957 - Russians beat everyone into space
1960 - a 9.6 magnitude earthquake, the biggest ever recorded hits chili, lots of people die, civil rights riots and protests start happening
1961 - US backed rebels unsuccessfully invade Cuba, Berlin wall goes up, more civil rights disruptions, Soviets get the first man in space, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever denoted is denoted, we can now destroy the world
1962 - Now that we have the bombs to blow up the world, the Cuban missile crisis happens, which almost blows up the word
1963 - another president killed in office
1964 - civil rights act passed, ok, now race relations are good for sure, no more civil rights disruptions ever
1965 - US sends a few troops to Vietnam just in case, Malcom X is assassinated, India and Pakistan go to war again
1966 - Chairman Mao has a cultural revolution in china, lots die, the US institutes the draft
1967 - the Australian PM disappears, the six day war between Israel and it's neighbors happens, civil rights unrest continues
1968 - MLK Jr. assassinated, RFK assassinated, Tet Offensive in Vietnam happens, yeah, the Vietnam war is going full speed ahead
1971 - the US capitalist system institutes wage and price controls, India and Pakistan go to war again
1972 - Vietnam war still going on
1973 - US declares victory and leaves vietnam, the US can't get oil because of an embargo
1974 - the US president up and quits
1975 - big Cambodian genocide, Civil war in lebanon, the US president escapes two assassination attempts
1976 - Tangshan earthquake kills a quarter million folks, Vietnam is all communist now
1979 - Iranian revolution, a US nuclear reactor has a partial meltdown
1980 - mount st helens erupts, the US embargoes the USSR, US inflation hits 14%, Iran Iraq war starts, and goes on for 8 years
1981 - someone tries to kill the US president, again
1982 - Falkands war starts, Lebanon war starts
1983 - US embassy bombed, a bunch of coups happening, USSR downs a korean airliner, famine in ethiopia kills half million
1984 - India's PM assassinated
1986 - Russian nuclear reactor melts down
1987 - black monday in US markets
1989 - berlin wall falls, USSR breaking up
1990 - Persian gulf war, Germany reunites, US doing more coupy type things in south america
1991 - USSR officially collapses, Balkans war starts, bosnian genocide starts
1994 - massive genocide in rwanda
1995 - Sarin gas is used in a Tokyo subway, Rabin assassinated
1996 - mad cow disease
1998 - india and pakistan test nukes
1999 - India and pakistan go to war and they have nukes
2000 - .com bust
2000 - election decided by the supreme court
2001 - 9/11, Afghanistan war
2002 - Euro currency created
2003 - 2nd gulf war started
2004 - Indian Ocean Tsunami, killing over 200k people instantly and displacing millions. Facebook is created.
2005 - Hurricane katrina, Youtube online
2006 - Israel lebanon war, North Korea gets Nukes
2007 - Great recession starts
2008 - A cyclone in china and earthquake in myanmar kill over 200k
2009 - great recession continues
2010 - arab spring starts
2011 - Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, Syrian and Libyan civil wars
2014 - ISIS forms, Ebola outbreak in Africa, Russia annexes Crimea
2016 - Trump 1.0
2017 - Rohingya genocide, ISIS captures Mosul
2018 - Venezuelan refugee crisis intensifies, with over 5 Million refugees leaving the country
2019 - Brexit, US-China tariff/trade war continues, Hong Kong democracy protests quashed
2020 - COVID worldwide pandemic
2021 - Taliban recapture Afghanistan
2022 - Russia invades Ukraine in the largest European invasion since WW2
2023 - Hamas attacks Israel, Sudanese civil war/genocide
2024 - Israel Iran Lebanon Hezbollah and Hamas engaged in conflict
2025 - Trump 2.0!
How dare you post evidence that things are going to be fine. Don't you know people want to freak out?
So… you’d say that everything was fine after each of these events?
Better than fine. We are living in the best time to be alive in all history. We are living in a time so stinking rich, that there are entire forums online showing people how to retire early and live off their wealth.
I think the bolded is one of the key parts that people are concerned about. Quite a lot of those events resulted in hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths. Hard to enjoy being stinking rich if you're dead.
The statement "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" is demonstrably false.
If you lived in the UK through Brexit (as an example), you are about 2000 pounds worse off on average. (3400 if you live in London.) https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit (https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit) - So for the average person in the UK, this is pretty clearly not the best time in history to be alive. That time would have been pre-Brexit.
Same holds true in many cases. Hard not to argue that the average person living in Ukraine was a lot happier and better off in 2021 than today. Any Palestinian living in Gaza was doing better in 2020 than today. Afghanistan has always been pretty rough, but certainly for women it is much worse today than it was in 2020.
But fuck those people. They live far away. So maybe the idea is to tell people in the US that they're living in the best time to be alive in all history? Well, after two prior decades of increasing, happiness among children aged 13-19 in the US has precipitously declined since 2011 (https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2019/the-sad-state-of-happiness-in-the-united-states-and-the-role-of-digital-media/ (https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2019/the-sad-state-of-happiness-in-the-united-states-and-the-role-of-digital-media/)). Internet usage, availability of porn, social media, sexting, a reduction of in-person time for relationships and experiences, ubiquitousness of cellphones everywhere - these things are making the world that we live in worse for people growing up in it. Home affordability, a constantly changing job market (and extreme career uncertainty), concentration of wealth and power into the hands of a few elite, secondary educational debt, rampant and ever increasing environmental damage . . . these are serious systemic and unaddressed problems that exist for young working age people. I don't think you can say that we're in the best time to be alive in all history without taking into account that people (especially young people) are much less happy than they were twenty years ago.
Now, absolutely we do live in a pretty good time historically. We aren't being stabbed to death for animal pelts or starving most of the time. But you shouldn't let that build complacency or blind you to the backslide that has been going on in a great many areas around the world though. In a great many areas we are not improving quality of life, security, or happiness. That's a serious problem that deserves a better shake than the platitude "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history".
"The statement "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" is demonstrably false."
I respectfully disagree. I've seen too many documentaries and speeches from authors and scientists who have studied the history of humanity and they generally conclude that now is the best time to be alive. I agree that we are in troubling times, but it's easy to focus on individual examples of our failings and not recognize the incremental progress we are making. Here is a recent opinion article covering this very topic:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/opinion/2024-child-mortality-poverty-growth.html
While I respect your opinion, and the opinion of the person who wrote that article . . . that doesn't change the facts. I've listed a great number of people who are measurably worse off today than just a few years ago - which puts to lie the claim being discussed. Your article doesn't mention Britons, Ukranians, women living in Afghanistan, or Gazans. It doesn't make any reference to the crisis of unhappiness currently going on in the United States among young people. These omissions are telling.
It's certainly possible to make the argument that some people in some countries are living in the best time in their history. If you're a middle class, white, 40's or older, cis-gendered man living in the US then the argument is quite persuasive. But you cannot say an all-inclusive "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history". It's all-inclusive and simply objectively and demonstrably false in too many cases.
I never perceived that statement as "All-Inclusive."
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I never perceived that statement as "All-Inclusive."
I read "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" as being inclusive of everyone. But, like I said, if you're largely referring to middle class, straight, white, male, 40+ citizens of the US then I totally agree with the comment.
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While I respect your opinion, and the opinion of the person who wrote that article . . . that doesn't change the facts. I've listed a great number of people who are measurably worse off today than just a few years ago - which puts to lie the claim being discussed. Your article doesn't mention Britons, Ukranians, women living in Afghanistan, or Gazans. It doesn't make any reference to the crisis of unhappiness currently going on in the United States among young people. These omissions are telling.
It's certainly possible to make the argument that some people in some countries are living in the best time in their history. If you're a middle class, white, 40's or older, cis-gendered man living in the US then the argument is quite persuasive. But you cannot say an all-inclusive "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history". It's all-inclusive and simply objectively and demonstrably false in too many cases.
Normally I don't see your posts because I have you on my ignore list. Because I've noticed in almost every post you make it's always a negative take on whatever is being discussed. You are an incredibly negative person and I just don't need that in my life. But I made the mistake of doing a 'show post'.....
I agree that life it not perfect (or even great) for everyone. But the overall trend for humanity as a whole is pretty damn amazing. Here's some data to back up what I'm saying.
This is the least autocratic time (ie, most democratic) time in all history - https://ourworldindata.org/democracy
Life expectancy has almost doubled! in the last 100 years from 32 to the 73!! https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?focus=~OWID_WRL
World literacy is the highest its ever been in all history, from 12% 200 years ago to almost 90% today - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cross-country-literacy-rates
Extreme poverty has dropped from 80% to 8% today. That's amazing! https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-between-different-poverty-thresholds-historical
Infant mortality has dropped from 30% to around 3%. Can you imagine as a parent, losing 30% of your children? Again, things are way better nowadays - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality?country=USA~GBR~SWE~FRA~BRA~IND~OWID_WRL
If we look at world GDP, we are ridiculously wealthy compared to all history. I mean the data just forms a hockey stick over the last 200 years - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-gdp-over-the-long-run
If you are concerned about climate, more great news - we deployed renewables are the highest level in all history this past year. And you can see the data lines are moving in an increasing rate. Hell, here in CO we've already hit 52% renewables in our energy generation last year. China is building solar farms at the rate equivalent to 7 new nuclear power plants per month! https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy
Contrary to localized issues (like US teenagers), globally, happiness/satisfaction with life is on the rise. https://ourworldindata.org/happiness-and-life-satisfaction
I know people like you in real life. You simply don't ever WANT to be happy. So no matter what the data shows, you will find a way to feel bad. Which is fine. You are going back on my ignore list as of right now. You might respond (or not), but I won't see it if you do.
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I never perceived that statement as "All-Inclusive."
I read "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" as being inclusive of everyone. But, like I said, if you're largely referring to middle class, straight, white, male, 40+ citizens of the US then I totally agree with the comment.
I am sure we are all awasre that this was not meant as an absolute all inclusive. That can't be right, never, especially on an individual level.
However there are broad trends and I would argue the top of that was somewhere around 2010.
Just take Tysons first point:
This is the least autocratic time (ie, most democratic) time in all history - https://ourworldindata.org/democracy
Just opening it will show a significant drop in democracy, with the highest point in 2004, 2010 or 2012, depending what you look at.
And this does not even include the rise of fascist politicians/parties, like Trump in the US or the AfD in Germany, which got the most votes everywhere in the former GDR except the 2 biggest cities.
I would also strongly go against his point of the climate - we likely broke the 1,5°C goal last year, which means whatever it will be, it will be catatrophic, the question is just how much. There are already significant increases in deadly weather and weather damages.
Also the happiness graph of Europe ends in 2016 - a time of economic hight, before Brexit and Ukraine. I doubt the levels are the same.
I think there are 2 general trends: Life is getting better for those who are still on the lower levels - many Chinese, Africans and some South American countries. Because improvement is cheaper and even with e.g. high corruption levels there is still enough improvement left to increase general levels.
But for the Top 25 countries, life for those not in the top quarter has gotten harder - which is a huge factor in the rise of the fascists.
It's what happened to the US Democrats: They looked at the statistics and told people that life was getting better. But that is not true for the lower stratas. Definitely not on a relative scale and sometimes not on an absolute scale.
It took, in Germany, until 2018 for the lowest 10% of income to reach the 2000 levels (price adjusted) again. And then the Corona and Ukraine inflation hit, with heating and food having the highest inflation. I don't know the current value but I am pretty sure we are under 2000 levels (pre Agenda 2010 to be precise) again.
But those are absolute levels. They are bad enough. In the same time the top 10% more than doubled their wealth and the top 1% nearly doubled their income.
If there is one constant in human societies it is this: The more unequal the distribution of wealth, the more likely a - in most cases very violent - upheavel is. This is literally what our oldest written documents are about.
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I agree that life it not perfect (or even great) for everyone. But the overall trend for humanity as a whole is pretty damn amazing. Here's some data to back up what I'm saying.
This is the least autocratic time (ie, most democratic) time in all history - https://ourworldindata.org/democracy
Life expectancy has almost doubled! in the last 100 years from 32 to the 73!! https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?focus=~OWID_WRL
World literacy is the highest its ever been in all history, from 12% 200 years ago to almost 90% today - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cross-country-literacy-rates
Extreme poverty has dropped from 80% to 8% today. That's amazing! https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-between-different-poverty-thresholds-historical
Infant mortality has dropped from 30% to around 3%. Can you imagine as a parent, losing 30% of your children? Again, things are way better nowadays - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality?country=USA~GBR~SWE~FRA~BRA~IND~OWID_WRL
If we look at world GDP, we are ridiculously wealthy compared to all history. I mean the data just forms a hockey stick over the last 200 years - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-gdp-over-the-long-run
Yeah, I don't disagree with anything you've written here. On average in most (if not all) of the world, things are much better today than 100 or 200 years ago. That trend is amazing, and certainly something to be happy about.
I think that where we differ though is that while we look pretty damned good compared to an ancient Roman or a peon living in the dark ages, the improvement isn't holding up as well over the past 30 or so years. Particularly in places where standard of living was very high in the 80s (The US, Canada, much of Western Europe). It takes effort and work to hold things at a high level, and even more to continue to see things improve. When things stop improving or regress (as they have in many instances) recently, this feels like a problem that should cause a little concern. For example, I don't like that worldwide democracy seems to have peaked and be on the decline over the past decade (according to your own chart).
In Canada, the 1900s were infinitely better than the 1400s in Italy. But I'm sure glad those 1900s Canadians didn't sit around patting themselves on the back and instead strove to be better.
If you are concerned about climate, more great news - we deployed renewables are the highest level in all history this past year. And you can see the data lines are moving in an increasing rate. Hell, here in CO we've already hit 52% renewables in our energy generation last year. China is building solar farms at the rate equivalent to 7 new nuclear power plants per month! https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy
The environment is a big topic. I love that there is movement on renewables. It's certainly good. To date, there has been zero world-wide improvement in the greenhouse gases that we're dumping into the environment (like clockwork at a more rapid rate every year - unfortunately, much of the improvement in poverty, time and resources for education, and wealth are directly connected to this). There is no realistic solution to the climate problem to date. So sure, I've got concerns on this area. I'm sorry that this bums you out. It bums me out too. I just think that blanket denial is a bad policy to deal with problems.
Contrary to localized issues (like US teenagers), globally, happiness/satisfaction with life is on the rise. https://ourworldindata.org/happiness-and-life-satisfaction
Also great. Moving out of poverty and starvation really helps put some smiles on faces of course. Of course, it doesn't change the unhappiness epidemic that has been going on among the youth in the US and Canada for decades now. I'm not sure that dismissing it as you appear to be doing is the best approach to the problem. It exists. It needs to be acknowledged and discussed before it can ever be solved.
I know people like you in real life. You simply don't ever WANT to be happy. So no matter what the data shows, you will find a way to feel bad. Which is fine. You are going back on my ignore list as of right now. You might respond (or not), but I won't see it if you do.
I doubt very much that you know someone very much like me. I'm not miserable (although there are certainly some topics that bum me out, and I suspect that you and I process things in quite different ways). If we ever get some good data on the issues that are bumming me out, maybe we'll have a chance to test your theory.
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I never perceived that statement as "All-Inclusive."
I read "We are living in the best time to be alive in all history" as being inclusive of everyone. But, like I said, if you're largely referring to middle class, straight, white, male, 40+ citizens of the US then I totally agree with the comment.
I am sure we are all awasre that this was not meant as an absolute all inclusive. That can't be right, never, especially on an individual level.
However there are broad trends and I would argue the top of that was somewhere around 2010.
Just take Tysons first point:
This is the least autocratic time (ie, most democratic) time in all history - https://ourworldindata.org/democracy
Just opening it will show a significant drop in democracy, with the highest point in 2004, 2010 or 2012, depending what you look at.
And this does not even include the rise of fascist politicians/parties, like Trump in the US or the AfD in Germany, which got the most votes everywhere in the former GDR except the 2 biggest cities.
I would also strongly go against his point of the climate - we likely broke the 1,5°C goal last year, which means whatever it will be, it will be catatrophic, the question is just how much. There are already significant increases in deadly weather and weather damages.
Also the happiness graph of Europe ends in 2016 - a time of economic hight, before Brexit and Ukraine. I doubt the levels are the same.
I think there are 2 general trends: Life is getting better for those who are still on the lower levels - many Chinese, Africans and some South American countries. Because improvement is cheaper and even with e.g. high corruption levels there is still enough improvement left to increase general levels.
But for the Top 25 countries, life for those not in the top quarter has gotten harder - which is a huge factor in the rise of the fascists.
It's what happened to the US Democrats: They looked at the statistics and told people that life was getting better. But that is not true for the lower stratas. Definitely not on a relative scale and sometimes not on an absolute scale.
It took, in Germany, until 2018 for the lowest 10% of income to reach the 2000 levels (price adjusted) again. And then the Corona and Ukraine inflation hit, with heating and food having the highest inflation. I don't know the current value but I am pretty sure we are under 2000 levels (pre Agenda 2010 to be precise) again.
But those are absolute levels. They are bad enough. In the same time the top 10% more than doubled their wealth and the top 1% nearly doubled their income.
If there is one constant in human societies it is this: The more unequal the distribution of wealth, the more likely a - in most cases very violent - upheavel is. This is literally what our oldest written documents are about.
I agree, we are slightly down from 2010ish all time highs. But that just means things are only slightly less awesome now vs 100 years ago.
And I never said things were awesome for everyone at all levels. Only that if you are alive today it a much better world to live in than in all history. Now, the trends might have flattened, or even regressed a little. But even with some regression, things are still WAY better than pretty much all history.
Humans have a negativity bias. Which served us well when we were hunter gatherers in a hostile world that was actively trying to kill us. People without a negativity bias simply didn't survive. But we are no longer living as hunter gatherers. But our programming hasn't caught up to our new reality of much greater safety and much higher health/wealth.
Practically I see it play out in a lot of places. People assume that the good things are fragile or they simply won't last. On the right you see it as religiously inspired 'the world is going to end' because of god. On the left you see it as 'the world is going to end because of climate change'. In financial areas you see it play out every year with people predicting a big market drop.
Hey, I am no better. I also have my own negativity bias. But I learned to control it by unplugging from the news which is all just crisis porn.
I take action on the things that I have control over (ie, stop burning stuff for energy, work from home, walk for errands, vote every election for dem candidates). These are things I have control over.
But things like changing the supreme court? Removing a president from office? Changing a red state to blue? These are things I have no control and no ability to take any action on. Besides, we live in a democracy. The only real way to address these issues is to actually win the next elections. Which I will vote in, like I always do.
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Yeah... my list wasn't to show things are getting better or worse, but that US equities have managed despite terrible events of the past century+. And that while Trump may be a large disruption and may even cause a recession and equities to decline in value, they're probably still the best bet in the long run for passive wealth accumulation.
Berkshire Hathaway's growing pile of cash is perfect example of how someone could think that now is the time to get out of or at least reduce their equity exposure. How many articles and YouTube videos are posted each month/year predicting economic doom? It's an easy trap to fall into. For me, it's not the crash that's concerning, it's the length of the crash or the time it takes to recover. For example, if the market crashes severely and we enter a state of stagnation for the next 5-10 years, we could watch our portfolios erode, along with our long-term financial stability.
I was thinking now would be a perfect time to just buy BRK and get the built-in cash position, but then I remembered that Buffett is super old and there's a decent amount of uncertainty regarding succession
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I agree that life it not perfect (or even great) for everyone. But the overall trend for humanity as a whole is pretty damn amazing. Here's some data to back up what I'm saying.
This is the least autocratic time (ie, most democratic) time in all history - https://ourworldindata.org/democracy
Life expectancy has almost doubled! in the last 100 years from 32 to the 73!! https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?focus=~OWID_WRL
World literacy is the highest its ever been in all history, from 12% 200 years ago to almost 90% today - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cross-country-literacy-rates
Extreme poverty has dropped from 80% to 8% today. That's amazing! https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-between-different-poverty-thresholds-historical
Infant mortality has dropped from 30% to around 3%. Can you imagine as a parent, losing 30% of your children? Again, things are way better nowadays - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality?country=USA~GBR~SWE~FRA~BRA~IND~OWID_WRL
If we look at world GDP, we are ridiculously wealthy compared to all history. I mean the data just forms a hockey stick over the last 200 years - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-gdp-over-the-long-run
Yeah, I don't disagree with anything you've written here. On average in most (if not all) of the world, things are much better today than 100 or 200 years ago. That trend is amazing, and certainly something to be happy about.
I think that where we differ though is that while we look pretty damned good compared to an ancient Roman or a peon living in the dark ages, the improvement isn't holding up as well over the past 30 or so years. Particularly in places where standard of living was very high in the 80s (The US, Canada, much of Western Europe). It takes effort and work to hold things at a high level, and even more to continue to see things improve. When things stop improving or regress (as they have in many instances) recently, this feels like a problem that should cause a little concern. For example, I don't like that worldwide democracy seems to have peaked and be on the decline over the past decade (according to your own chart).
In Canada, the 1900s were infinitely better than the 1400s in Italy. But I'm sure glad those 1900s Canadians didn't sit around patting themselves on the back and instead strove to be better.
If you are concerned about climate, more great news - we deployed renewables are the highest level in all history this past year. And you can see the data lines are moving in an increasing rate. Hell, here in CO we've already hit 52% renewables in our energy generation last year. China is building solar farms at the rate equivalent to 7 new nuclear power plants per month! https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy
The environment is a big topic. I love that there is movement on renewables. It's certainly good. To date, there has been zero world-wide improvement in the greenhouse gases that we're dumping into the environment (like clockwork at a more rapid rate every year - unfortunately, much of the improvement in poverty, time and resources for education, and wealth are directly connected to this). There is no realistic solution to the climate problem to date. So sure, I've got concerns on this area. I'm sorry that this bums you out. It bums me out too. I just think that blanket denial is a bad policy to deal with problems.
Contrary to localized issues (like US teenagers), globally, happiness/satisfaction with life is on the rise. https://ourworldindata.org/happiness-and-life-satisfaction
Also great. Moving out of poverty and starvation really helps put some smiles on faces of course. Of course, it doesn't change the unhappiness epidemic that has been going on among the youth in the US and Canada for decades now. I'm not sure that dismissing it as you appear to be doing is the best approach to the problem. It exists. It needs to be acknowledged and discussed before it can ever be solved.
I know people like you in real life. You simply don't ever WANT to be happy. So no matter what the data shows, you will find a way to feel bad. Which is fine. You are going back on my ignore list as of right now. You might respond (or not), but I won't see it if you do.
I doubt very much that you know someone very much like me. I'm not miserable (although there are certainly some topics that bum me out, and I suspect that you and I process things in quite different ways). If we ever get some good data on the issues that are bumming me out, maybe we'll have a chance to test your theory.
I couldn't help it, I took a peak, haha. It does seem like we agree more than we disagree. Especially global problems are trending in the right direction.
The other problems (lets call them 'localized' problems as opposed to the global trends we already agree on), I also agree with you, they are problems and they need to be addressed.
My actual attitude is "things are pretty awesome, especially compared to all history, but things are not perfect and there's still work to do". Mostly I'm grateful to all the awesome humans that came before me to make the world I'm in so amazing. That baseline of gratefulness allows me to have a good core level of happiness in my day to day life.
I assumed this type of emotional resiliency would be more common on the MMM forums with the overall emphasis on stoicism and self reliance.
I see a lot of panic and fear in this thread and I just don't see how people can live their lives like that. And for the next 4 years? That is allowing an external force (politics) to have way too much control over your day to day experience of the world.
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That Dividendman's list is interesting.
I'm assuming that the perspective this list is written from is an American perspective wrt the American stock index.
I'm pretty sure the perspective changes if you were say Chinese in China, or Polish, or Rwandan, or German, etc. during some of these events.
The difference here, is it's the American democracy, American rule of law that's in question. The checks and balances may hold, they may not only time will tell.
This may merely be another recession, a deep depression (combined with climate/disease related food shortages again)... or at it's worst it could be the fall of the American Empire.
I don't think any of the events on that list hinted that the USA might not be a trustworthy country anymore - but some of them show us what happens in the local markets when things fail.
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Yeah, I'm confused by the comments along the lines of, I'll just vote in the next election, or a list of events since 1901. I took the "event" the OP is talking about as including current indicia that the US may cease to be a democracy.
Obviously it's totally cool to not think that's going to come to pass. But I don't think it's unreasonable to consider whether it will, and in that case, a prior or illusory ability to vote and a list of relatively recent global events, none of which involved the President/VP of the US explicitly signaling the end of a democratic form of government, seems ancillary to the question. And even if past events had parallels, it seems reasonable to consider whether the present context is different from past contexts.
(Not to mention the points already made that for many millions of people, it may have made a life-saving difference to be asking these questions shortly after some of the events listed.)
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I was thinking now would be a perfect time to just buy BRK and get the built-in cash position, but then I remembered that Buffett is super old and there's a decent amount of uncertainty regarding succession
Is there uncertainty about Buffett's succesor at Berkshire Hathaway? In his most recent shareholder letter Buffett said "At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the annual letters."
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf
I'm not seeing much uncertainty there.
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I was thinking now would be a perfect time to just buy BRK and get the built-in cash position, but then I remembered that Buffett is super old and there's a decent amount of uncertainty regarding succession
Is there uncertainty about Buffett's succesor at Berkshire Hathaway? In his most recent shareholder letter Buffett said "At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the annual letters."
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf
I'm not seeing much uncertainty there.
I don’t mean there’s no plan. I mean it’s uncertain if the successors will have the Buffett magic. I’m sure they are all technically qualified and do all the research/legwork for him but he still calls the shots at this point right?
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To continue scandium’s exercise, assuming you can transfer the money electronically but are worried about seizure, I guess you could buy gold/cash in the target country. For example if I move i could withdraw cash and give it to family members. That would beat trying to carry it across borders myself. If something like that wouldn’t work (for example, destination government in total cahoots with the US), then the destination country probably was already a bad choice
Also considered simply transfer directly to family abroad. From what I can tell with quick googling I don’t think gift tax is a big problem at my level of wealth. If this is a preemptive measure taken over several years, then the limits involved are more than I’d need
In some countries, it's the recipient who's liable to pay gift tax. And it's of course calculated according to that country's taxation.
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I was thinking now would be a perfect time to just buy BRK and get the built-in cash position, but then I remembered that Buffett is super old and there's a decent amount of uncertainty regarding succession
Is there uncertainty about Buffett's succesor at Berkshire Hathaway? In his most recent shareholder letter Buffett said "At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the annual letters."
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf
I'm not seeing much uncertainty there.
I don’t mean there’s no plan. I mean it’s uncertain if the successors will have the Buffett magic. I’m sure they are all technically qualified and do all the research/legwork for him but he still calls the shots at this point right?
When Buffet dies, Berkshire might go down... it could be a good buying opportunity. Occasionally I am tempted to put all my non-tax sheltered money in Berkshire because there are no dividends (despite my name, I hate dividends now) to be taxed and it seems like a good hedge against the impending recession.... but we haven't had a prolonged downturn in stocks since 2008... so who knows when it'll come.
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despite my name, I hate dividends now
My world is shaken to the core
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I was thinking now would be a perfect time to just buy BRK and get the built-in cash position, but then I remembered that Buffett is super old and there's a decent amount of uncertainty regarding succession
Is there uncertainty about Buffett's succesor at Berkshire Hathaway? In his most recent shareholder letter Buffett said "At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the annual letters."
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf
I'm not seeing much uncertainty there.
I don’t mean there’s no plan. I mean it’s uncertain if the successors will have the Buffett magic. I’m sure they are all technically qualified and do all the research/legwork for him but he still calls the shots at this point right?
When Buffet dies, Berkshire might go down... it could be a good buying opportunity. Occasionally I am tempted to put all my non-tax sheltered money in Berkshire because there are no dividends (despite my name, I hate dividends now) to be taxed and it seems like a good hedge against the impending recession.... but we haven't had a prolonged downturn in stocks since 2008... so who knows when it'll come.
I wonder about the tax aspect of berkshire. Setting aside the captive (private) companies for the moment - if Berkshire receives dividends from it stock and interests from its large cash/treasuries and/or sells stock with gains - it all gets taxed. If Berkshire were to pay dividends it would be essentially triple taxed [ex. for Coke (1) tax on net income, (2) tax on dividend to Berkshire, (3) tax on dividend paid to owner of Berkshire shares.....I guess you could also add tax on gain if Coke were sold by Berkshire]
Wouldn't it be more tax efficient to own the stocks/treasuries directly instead of through Berkshire? The private companies should be where the real money and outsized returns are.
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I was thinking now would be a perfect time to just buy BRK and get the built-in cash position, but then I remembered that Buffett is super old and there's a decent amount of uncertainty regarding succession
Is there uncertainty about Buffett's succesor at Berkshire Hathaway? In his most recent shareholder letter Buffett said "At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the annual letters."
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf
I'm not seeing much uncertainty there.
I don’t mean there’s no plan. I mean it’s uncertain if the successors will have the Buffett magic. I’m sure they are all technically qualified and do all the research/legwork for him but he still calls the shots at this point right?
When Buffet dies, Berkshire might go down... it could be a good buying opportunity. Occasionally I am tempted to put all my non-tax sheltered money in Berkshire because there are no dividends (despite my name, I hate dividends now) to be taxed and it seems like a good hedge against the impending recession.... but we haven't had a prolonged downturn in stocks since 2008... so who knows when it'll come.
I wonder about the tax aspect of berkshire. Setting aside the captive (private) companies for the moment - if Berkshire receives dividends from it stock and interests from its large cash/treasuries and/or sells stock with gains - it all gets taxed. If Berkshire were to pay dividends it would be essentially triple taxed [ex. for Coke (1) tax on net income, (2) tax on dividend to Berkshire, (3) tax on dividend paid to owner of Berkshire shares.....I guess you could also add tax on gain if Coke were sold by Berkshire]
Wouldn't it be more tax efficient to own the stocks/treasuries directly instead of through Berkshire? The private companies should be where the real money and outsized returns are.
Well, as you say, it's the wholly own subsidiaries that make the big difference. Berkshire has many wholly owned subsidaries (like BNSF, GEICO, etc.) that themselves would be S&P500 companies if they were independent. So, you get taxed the same on their dividends from apple and coke, but less on the wholly owned companies. It seems a lot more efficient.