Author Topic: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?  (Read 11113 times)

Radagast

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #50 on: February 10, 2020, 09:23:13 AM »
My rule of thumb is that something is bad for the environment in proportion to its cost. As far as I can tell this is universally true, after you factor in unintended external consequences. Your money is released into the economic system and bounces around introducing negative environmental consequences proportional to those of your larger society. If you buy a Tesla, the money goes into lithium mining, with pumps and ground water acquisition and paying people to drive out there and chemical processing. Then you pay all the engineers and factory floor workers, who commute to work and buy ever larger TV's. All their money goes to pay the people who make TV's and cars and things, who pay other people, et cetera. Within a year your initial Tesla money has moved around society 10,000 times with the resulting consequences. If you buy a used car none of those things occur, and you only pay for gas and maintenance. Buying used is like saying "please, lets not make another car just for me." Of course the smaller amount of money you pay for it will still reverberate around and go to the same things, but there will be a lot less of it doing so.

This has helped me see through a lot of bullshit. If I know how expensive something is I know the proportion to which it harms the environment. The exceptions are things which directly reduce environmental damage caused by a unit of economic activity, and that can be a lot harder to judge. For example, buying 100 tree saplings wholesale and planting them in a place they can grow naturally would certainly be beneficial. Paying somebody $150 plus expenses per sapling would be a lot less so because that person will still go and spend money on the same sorts of things as the coal plant worker or the Tesla buyer. Where on the scale is a Tesla? If it is an investment in infrastructure that ushers in a newer and cleaner society then it might have offsetting positive externalities, but they will be hypothetically realized over the coming decades and you would have to amortize them. The initial payment will go towards ordinary goods and services which are provided right now, and thus be a negative in direct proportion to how much you may for it.

So, yeah, it depends on the power source. China coal: Bad. California NG: Better. Washington hydro: Even better. Oregon turbines on the gorge: Much better.
Hydro power is the reason we can't catch salmon in Nevada any more...

The used car purchases that you recommend would never happen without the new car being sold in the first place.  The harder the push is for new cars to be EVs, the more used EVs will be available in the future.
Yup, and if it costs significantly more to do that then it is a sign it is probably a net negative.

How do you equate cost to whether something is a net negative or positive?  Is my solar array environmentally negative because it was expensive?
Yes, definitely. It took one heck of a lot of energy to make that array, far more than your annual household electricity use. And not only in direct costs either, that payroll/HR person who commuted to work at the panel installer every day needs to be included as well. Your solar array is a net negative for the environment until it pays for itself. If you live in the PNW with little sun and cheap hydropower and it never pays for itself, then it would have been better environmentally speaking if you had never purchased it at all. Though you probably get a tiny additional credit because as an early adopter you are effectively subsidizing R&D for something that will eventually be cheaper and better.

Radagast

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #51 on: February 10, 2020, 09:27:44 AM »
So, yeah, it depends on the power source. China coal: Bad. California NG: Better. Washington hydro: Even better. Oregon turbines on the gorge: Much better.
Hydro power is the reason we can't catch salmon in Nevada any more...

And turbines kill birds, and solar panel production means HF acid, NaOH, and silicon tetrachloride byproducts.

We know the real solution: Get a smaller house,* insulate the fuck out of it, and use a bike to get around.

But we also know that people aren't going to do that until it's forced upon them by some kind of financial mechanism such as a carbon tax.



* And none of this 1800 ft^2 bs either. That's not small enough.
Good point. According to the cost matters hypothesis, hydro probably has the lowest total environmental cost of any current technology, and we can tell because electricity is cheaper in places where it dominates. Its negatives are easier to see, but ultimately probably smaller.

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #52 on: February 10, 2020, 09:28:13 AM »
Are you factoring in the likely longer service life? Tesla is claiming a million mile battery will exist. https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-may-soon-have-a-battery-that-can-last-a-million-miles/

There are million mile combustion engines (I have one with that reputation), but they are few and far between. 
If there is at least 1 million mile combustion engine in the world, that is infinitely more than how many million mile Tesla batteries there have been. I'm interested in proven technologies, not advertising.

In any case it doesn't change the basic calculations:

1-2 people in 1,611kg car (Tesla Model 3) = even with 5 people that's 322kg of vehicle per person (average occupancy is 1.59, which is 1,013kg per person)
150-250 people in 22,000g train carriage = 88-150kg vehicle per person
1 person on 10kg bicycle = 10kg vehicle per person
1 person in 0.5kg shoes = 0.5kg vehicle per person

You could power the thing with nothing more offensive than little girls' smiles, in the end you're still schlepping around hundreds of kg of metal and plastic as you travel, it can only be so efficient. Once you factor in the wage time needed to pay for the purchase, registration, insurance, maintenance and fuelling of the thing, unless you're on quite a high income, cars are the most expensive and thus slowest way to travel.

If you want to reduce emissions, arrange your life to drive less. What they are really selling is the promise you don't have to reduce your consumption. It's no different to "Sixpack abs in 30 days! Lose weight without eating less!" It's bullshit, really. Let Elon Musk head off to Mars, we'll be back on Earth living in it.

Something hitting the junkyard after 200k miles vs after 600k miles doesn't change a thing?  I thought you were offended with the manufacturing process as well, and it seems that reducing that by 2/3 is significant.

Tesloop had a 400k mile Model S back in 2018.  This guy was at 559k miles last year and is on his second battery pack. @PDXTabs established that battery pack production has the cost of approx 30k miles of ICE pollution, so even if we assume that he's approaching a second pack replacement that is still ~10x better.

You are missing the point that someone has to pioneer this tech for future use.  Why didn't we just tell people to "drive less" in their 12mpg 1970's cars instead of engineering for better fuel economy?  It is possible to drive less and have more efficient vehicles, but if we insist that it's not worth trying we'll never improve.

Yes, definitely. It took one heck of a lot of energy to make that array, far more than your annual household electricity use. And not only in direct costs either, that payroll/HR person who commuted to work at the panel installer every day needs to be included as well. Your solar array is a net negative for the environment until it pays for itself. If you live in the PNW with little sun and cheap hydropower and it never pays for itself, then it would have been better environmentally speaking if you had never purchased it at all. Though you probably get a tiny additional credit because as an early adopter you are effectively subsidizing R&D for something that will eventually be cheaper and better.

Well I guess we should all give up and go back to coal, huh.

FWIW I live in the NYC area and power is not basically free like it is in Oregon.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2020, 09:31:13 AM by JLee »

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #53 on: February 10, 2020, 11:51:55 AM »
Yes, definitely. It took one heck of a lot of energy to make that array, far more than your annual household electricity use. And not only in direct costs either, that payroll/HR person who commuted to work at the panel installer every day needs to be included as well. Your solar array is a net negative for the environment until it pays for itself. If you live in the PNW with little sun and cheap hydropower and it never pays for itself, then it would have been better environmentally speaking if you had never purchased it at all. Though you probably get a tiny additional credit because as an early adopter you are effectively subsidizing R&D for something that will eventually be cheaper and better.

"is a net negative for ... until it pays for itself." Said for any capital expenditure ever. It's a good thing some people can think beyond today instead of never taking action to impact future results.

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #54 on: February 10, 2020, 01:01:44 PM »
@PDXTabs established that battery pack production has the cost of approx 30k miles of ICE pollution, so even if we assume that he's approaching a second pack replacement that is still ~10x better.

Okay, you made me go back and recheck my math. Using this paper I decided that we are talking about 61-106kg of CO2 emissions per kWh of battery. 59kg is from the raw materials and the last 2-47kg depends on the mix of energy sources used during manufacturing. By my own math, if you take a middle estimate of 83.5kg/kWh manufacturing a 75 kWh battery requires 6263kg of CO2, the same as burning 705 gallons of gasoline, which is even less than 30K miles on the highway in my 2014 Ford Focus.

With that said, that math only accounts for the CO2 production and does not account for any mining related environmental costs that might be associated with that battery production.

Slow2FIRE

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #55 on: February 10, 2020, 05:32:10 PM »
How do you equate cost to whether something is a net negative or positive?  Is my solar array environmentally negative because it was expensive?
Yes, definitely. It took one heck of a lot of energy to make that array, far more than your annual household electricity use. And not only in direct costs either, that payroll/HR person who commuted to work at the panel installer every day needs to be included as well. Your solar array is a net negative for the environment until it pays for itself. If you live in the PNW with little sun and cheap hydropower and it never pays for itself, then it would have been better environmentally speaking if you had never purchased it at all. Though you probably get a tiny additional credit because as an early adopter you are effectively subsidizing R&D for something that will eventually be cheaper and better.

All the way back in 2004 it was determined that it takes about 4 years, worst case, for a PV panel to payback its costs in terms of energy required to manufacture (best case at the time was 1 year).
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf

The decreased sun vs improved manufacturing and solar panel efficiency probably still keep it at 4 years worst case.

The additional ghg of the inverters....not sure, likely not even close to the manufacturing cost of the solar panels. 

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #56 on: February 10, 2020, 06:52:46 PM »
All the way back in 2004 it was determined that it takes about 4 years, worst case, for a PV panel to payback its costs in terms of energy required to manufacture (best case at the time was 1 year).
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf

How Much CO2 and Pollution Does PV Avoid?
An average U.S. household uses 830 kWh of electricity per month. On average, producing 1,000 kWh of electricity with solar power reduces emissions by nearly 8 pounds of sulfur dioxide, 5 pounds of nitrogen oxides, and more than 1,400 pounds of carbon dioxide.


But my city power (Portland General Electric) already has an option for 100% renewable. My house is already powered by 100% renewable energy. So my payoff timeline is infinite, right?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #57 on: February 10, 2020, 11:50:08 PM »
You are missing the point that someone has to pioneer this tech for future use.
Do they? Why?

Are you familiar with the phrase, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"?

Quote
Why didn't we just tell people to "drive less" in their 12mpg 1970's cars instead of engineering for better fuel economy?
It's a mystery to me.

Quote
It is possible to drive less and have more efficient vehicles
You'd think so, and yet... when vehicles become more efficient, or more roads are built, etc - people drive more. So we'd end up with the same pollution. Fuel efficiency keeps increasing, and yet transport emissions keep going up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

It's remarkable to me that even on a forum devoted to reducing waste and even becoming frugal, there's so much resistance to consuming less. Ah, people are funny.

Leisured

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #58 on: February 11, 2020, 05:24:21 AM »
Henry Ford used to promote the idea of 'A chicken in every pot, and a Ford in every garage'. Part of the American dream. Tesla seeks to replace Fords with electric vehicles, which if the power is generated from largely renewable sources, is a benefit.

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #59 on: February 11, 2020, 09:07:10 AM »
You are missing the point that someone has to pioneer this tech for future use.
Do they? Why?

Are you familiar with the phrase, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"?

Quote
Why didn't we just tell people to "drive less" in their 12mpg 1970's cars instead of engineering for better fuel economy?
It's a mystery to me.

Quote
It is possible to drive less and have more efficient vehicles
You'd think so, and yet... when vehicles become more efficient, or more roads are built, etc - people drive more. So we'd end up with the same pollution. Fuel efficiency keeps increasing, and yet transport emissions keep going up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

It's remarkable to me that even on a forum devoted to reducing waste and even becoming frugal, there's so much resistance to consuming less. Ah, people are funny.

It is broke. Unless you don't think climate change is real either, in which case I guess we should just keep dinojuice around forever and try to use less of it, which isn't going to happen.  If EVs become commonplace worldwide, we will be able to drastically reduce pollution.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #60 on: February 11, 2020, 10:26:26 AM »
It's remarkable to me that even on a forum devoted to reducing waste and even becoming frugal, there's so much resistance to consuming less. Ah, people are funny.

Don't take it personally. The resistance to consuming less is the realization that most people won't do so. They (Americans in particular) want to keep their single-passenger cars/SUVs/pickups and large house. They want to experience exotic vacation spots that are 1000s of miles away.

We can have a circle jerk about how we're all environmentally virtuous but that means nothing when 95% are unwilling to make a change because their lifestyle changes "for the worst."

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #61 on: February 11, 2020, 05:31:42 PM »
It is broke. Unless you don't think climate change is real either, in which case I guess we should just keep dinojuice around forever and try to use less of it, which isn't going to happen.
Why isn't it going to happen?


Many people like to argue for their preferred lifestyle, social change or lack thereof, etc, by saying it's inevitable. Why is an endless rise in consumption inevitable?


And what of the finiteness of these resources? Not only oil, but lithium, etc? Are you aware that if Musk ever achieved his planned level of EV production, it would use the world's entire current production of lithium? Do you imagine the lithium production process requires zero energy and produces no pollution? We cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet. At some point we run into shortages, which means at some point we must... consume less. If you know you are going to be made redundant and will you lose your current income, do you drop your spending now, or wait until security comes and escorts you from the building?

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #62 on: February 11, 2020, 09:32:26 PM »
It is broke. Unless you don't think climate change is real either, in which case I guess we should just keep dinojuice around forever and try to use less of it, which isn't going to happen.
Why isn't it going to happen?


Many people like to argue for their preferred lifestyle, social change or lack thereof, etc, by saying it's inevitable. Why is an endless rise in consumption inevitable?


And what of the finiteness of these resources? Not only oil, but lithium, etc? Are you aware that if Musk ever achieved his planned level of EV production, it would use the world's entire current production of lithium? Do you imagine the lithium production process requires zero energy and produces no pollution? We cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet. At some point we run into shortages, which means at some point we must... consume less. If you know you are going to be made redundant and will you lose your current income, do you drop your spending now, or wait until security comes and escorts you from the building?

1) Uhh have you been paying attention to the world?
2) EVs are the attempt to reduce oil consumption. I make more power with my solar array than my car uses.

If you are going to be made redundant and you're going to lose your current income, you find another solution.  Your argument is to simply give up and stop spending.  My argument is that's not a realistic possibility, so find another damn job.

EVs by design are possible of a much longer lifecycle than ICE and also require dramatically less maintenance.  Cost of ownership of a new Tesla Model 3 is less than that of a new Camry -- and before you say "just buy a used gas car," I bought a used EV.  You can do that too.

Or, you know, hate the people that are trying to make the world the better place so you can feel cool, I guess.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 09:39:41 PM by JLee »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #63 on: February 11, 2020, 10:09:37 PM »
But they're not trying to make the world a better place, they're trying to continue consuming, they've just added expensive virtue-signalling to it.


The peak oilers were all climate change denialists, but they at least recognised we need to reduce consumption, and did so. Thus, climate change denialists were less of a contribution to climate change than "believers."

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #64 on: February 11, 2020, 10:46:13 PM »
But they're not trying to make the world a better place, they're trying to continue consuming, they've just added expensive virtue-signalling to it.

I mostly agree with this line of reasoning. I would add: are there enough lithium mines in the world for everyone to have an EV, keeping in mind that there are now ~4B middle class folks worldwide and that number is growing every day?

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #65 on: February 11, 2020, 11:02:41 PM »
But they're not trying to make the world a better place, they're trying to continue consuming, they've just added expensive virtue-signalling to it.


The peak oilers were all climate change denialists, but they at least recognised we need to reduce consumption, and did so. Thus, climate change denialists were less of a contribution to climate change than "believers."

I think you've forgotten about the driving force behind fuel efficiency improvements -- it was not by the will of the automakers.

http://theconversation.com/government-fuel-economy-standards-for-cars-and-trucks-have-worked-94529

Or you can look at today's news: https://electrek.co/2019/10/29/gm-toyota-fca-epa-trump-pollution-california/


JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #66 on: February 11, 2020, 11:08:24 PM »
But they're not trying to make the world a better place, they're trying to continue consuming, they've just added expensive virtue-signalling to it.

I mostly agree with this line of reasoning. I would add: are there enough lithium mines in the world for everyone to have an EV, keeping in mind that there are now ~4B middle class folks worldwide and that number is growing every day?

There are something like 1.4 billion cars in the world.  Why are you so fixated on why moving on from internal combustion is impossible?

Musk is shooting for a million mile battery.  How many other automakers are anywhere near trying to make cars that will last that long?

Quote
https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

IBM Research is reporting that it has discovered a new battery chemistry that is free from heavy metals like nickel and cobalt and could potentially out-perform lithium-ion. IBM Research says that this chemistry has never been used in combination in a battery before and that the materials can be extracted from seawater.

The performance of the battery is promising, with IBM Research saying that it can out-perform lithium-ion in a number of different areas - it's cheaper to manufacture, it can charge faster than lithium-ion and can pack in both higher power and energy densities. All this is available in a battery with low flammability of the electrolytes.

Science is cool. People are smart. We can be better.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 11:10:01 PM by JLee »

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #67 on: February 11, 2020, 11:31:00 PM »
Why are you so fixated on why moving on from internal combustion is impossible?

Why are you so fixated on this ridiculously inefficient form of transportation that kills 1.25 million every year and maims countless more? Keeping in mind that we are running out of construction sand to build roads with.

I don't want to keep the ICE. I want to get rid of the cars.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #68 on: February 11, 2020, 11:49:11 PM »
I think you've forgotten about the driving force behind fuel efficiency improvements -- it was not by the will of the automakers.
Who said it was?


In any case, fuel efficiency encourages more consumption. Let's try some basic free market economics: when you sell something and drop the price, what do you expect to happen? People buy more of it, right? McDs doesn't offer a $1 burger so people buy less of them, yeah? So if you increase fuel efficiency (or build more roads, etc), then people will... drive more.









Musk is shooting for a million mile battery.

And I'm shooting to have babies with Lydia Valentin. We're interested in what's actually happened, not fantasies.

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #69 on: February 12, 2020, 07:29:06 AM »
Let you think we can eliminate cars? LOL.

Eliminate government subsidies for oil and gas - let the true cost come out and things will change on their own.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #70 on: February 12, 2020, 09:38:08 AM »
In any case, fuel efficiency encourages more consumption. Let's try some basic free market economics: when you sell something and drop the price, what do you expect to happen? People buy more of it, right? McDs doesn't offer a $1 burger so people buy less of them, yeah? So if you increase fuel efficiency (or build more roads, etc), then people will... drive more.

That's too basic. In the United States, oil consumption has been relatively constant since 2000 not seeing anywhere near the growth curve it had previously to that. Yet since 2000, the price of oil has bounced around from $35 - $120/barrel now at $50/barrel, fuel economy increased, US oil production increased, and GDP grew from $10T to $21T. Fuel efficiency does encourage consumption marginally, but demand is not that elastic. People want to do other things except drive all day because prices fall.

It sounds like you equate all forms of energy consumption. Electric cars are better for climate in the long run than ICE cars. Solar, wind and hydro are better than coal, natural gas, and oil. The world can't wait for perfection (everyone suddenly deciding to ride bikes to work and consume less) before adopting improved technologies that reduce emissions.




PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #71 on: February 12, 2020, 09:57:20 AM »
Let you think we can eliminate cars? LOL.

LOL, you think that we can continue infinite consumption on a finite planet without the planet eventually delivering a series of very large facepunches?

Very soon we are going to be talking about the decreasing crop yields associated with climate change, not our fancy new luxury vehicles. 

Eliminate government subsidies for oil and gas - let the true cost come out and things will change on their own.

Absolutely, but he true cost will include a hefty carbon tax. Of course, if you care about the true cost, all the parts in a Tesla would be subject to a carbon tax.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #72 on: February 12, 2020, 10:06:15 AM »
https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html

For U.S. drivers, you can use the link above to select your state.  When you start to get into comparisons, you need to know how the electricity is being generated to charge your EV.  Of course, you can play with the underlying assumptions as well.  They're assuming 24.3 mpg for an ICE vehicle, 37.9 mpg for a PHEV with a .367 kWh/mi (the mileage seems pretty low to me on that), an EV kWh/mi of 0.32, etc.

There may be better calculators out there.  I know Tesla's mpge is much higher than other EVs on the market (LOL at the inefficiency of Porsche's Taycan).

My hybrid gets 49-50 mpg typically, but in that link above they use the assumption of 44.4 mpg per hybrids.  I also drive a lot less than average -> maybe 3,500 miles a year.  On top of that, my state is still heavily coal, so an EV is about as equivalent a polluter as a hybrid based on their model.

So for EVs, you need to know the source of the power as well as how efficient the vehicle is in turning that power into mileage.

dougules

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #73 on: February 12, 2020, 11:09:08 AM »
Are you factoring in the likely longer service life? Tesla is claiming a million mile battery will exist. https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-may-soon-have-a-battery-that-can-last-a-million-miles/

There are million mile combustion engines (I have one with that reputation), but they are few and far between. 
If there is at least 1 million mile combustion engine in the world, that is infinitely more than how many million mile Tesla batteries there have been. I'm interested in proven technologies, not advertising.

In any case it doesn't change the basic calculations:

1-2 people in 1,611kg car (Tesla Model 3) = even with 5 people that's 322kg of vehicle per person (average occupancy is 1.59, which is 1,013kg per person)
150-250 people in 22,000g train carriage = 88-150kg vehicle per person
1 person on 10kg bicycle = 10kg vehicle per person
1 person in 0.5kg shoes = 0.5kg vehicle per person

You could power the thing with nothing more offensive than little girls' smiles, in the end you're still schlepping around hundreds of kg of metal and plastic as you travel, it can only be so efficient. Once you factor in the wage time needed to pay for the purchase, registration, insurance, maintenance and fuelling of the thing, unless you're on quite a high income, cars are the most expensive and thus slowest way to travel.

If you want to reduce emissions, arrange your life to drive less. What they are really selling is the promise you don't have to reduce your consumption. It's no different to "Sixpack abs in 30 days! Lose weight without eating less!" It's bullshit, really. Let Elon Musk head off to Mars, we'll be back on Earth living in it.

All good points.  An additional issue is that with Tesla, people can fool themselves into thinking they're good for the environment.  Everybody knows that gas-powered cars are not green.  Tesla is bad in the sense that they help people to forget about the comparison of driving in general vs walking/cycling/mass transit. 

Also one other point, you should also consider the roads themselves.  My town here is going on a huge asphalt binge widening every road they can get the money for.  How much dirty energy goes into adding, maintaining, and widening the roads themselves?  Teslas won't do anything to help that.  Other forms of transportation need a lot less pavement per person-mile. 

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #74 on: February 12, 2020, 01:01:32 PM »
Let you think we can eliminate cars? LOL.

LOL, you think that we can continue infinite consumption on a finite planet without the planet eventually delivering a series of very large facepunches?

Very soon we are going to be talking about the decreasing crop yields associated with climate change, not our fancy new luxury vehicles. 

Eliminate government subsidies for oil and gas - let the true cost come out and things will change on their own.

Absolutely, but he true cost will include a hefty carbon tax. Of course, if you care about the true cost, all the parts in a Tesla would be subject to a carbon tax.
I'll take "Things I didn't say" for 800, Alex.

In any case, fuel efficiency encourages more consumption. Let's try some basic free market economics: when you sell something and drop the price, what do you expect to happen? People buy more of it, right? McDs doesn't offer a $1 burger so people buy less of them, yeah? So if you increase fuel efficiency (or build more roads, etc), then people will... drive more.

That's too basic. In the United States, oil consumption has been relatively constant since 2000 not seeing anywhere near the growth curve it had previously to that. Yet since 2000, the price of oil has bounced around from $35 - $120/barrel now at $50/barrel, fuel economy increased, US oil production increased, and GDP grew from $10T to $21T. Fuel efficiency does encourage consumption marginally, but demand is not that elastic. People want to do other things except drive all day because prices fall.

It sounds like you equate all forms of energy consumption. Electric cars are better for climate in the long run than ICE cars. Solar, wind and hydro are better than coal, natural gas, and oil. The world can't wait for perfection (everyone suddenly deciding to ride bikes to work and consume less) before adopting improved technologies that reduce emissions.

Yuuuup.  In this thread I am seeing a whole lot of excuses as to why we shouldn't try to be better simply because we can't be perfect.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 01:04:57 PM by JLee »

Boofinator

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #75 on: February 12, 2020, 01:14:41 PM »
https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html

For U.S. drivers, you can use the link above to select your state.  When you start to get into comparisons, you need to know how the electricity is being generated to charge your EV.  Of course, you can play with the underlying assumptions as well.  They're assuming 24.3 mpg for an ICE vehicle, 37.9 mpg for a PHEV with a .367 kWh/mi (the mileage seems pretty low to me on that), an EV kWh/mi of 0.32, etc.

Is it any coincidence that the most polluting state in the Union is also the lair of Dick Cheney?

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #76 on: February 12, 2020, 01:16:06 PM »
In this thread I am seeing a whole lot of excuses as to why we shouldn't try to be better simply because we can't be perfect.

Sometimes the perfect is the enemy of the good. Sometimes incremental improvement isn't good enough. If I'm a lifelong alcoholic and I reduce my wine consumption from five liters a day to three liters a day, that doesn't mean that I'm not going to die a horrible early death.

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #77 on: February 12, 2020, 01:22:34 PM »
In this thread I am seeing a whole lot of excuses as to why we shouldn't try to be better simply because we can't be perfect.

Sometimes the perfect is the enemy of the good. Sometimes incremental improvement isn't good enough. If I'm a lifelong alcoholic and I reduce my wine consumption from five liters a day to three liters a day, that doesn't mean that I'm not going to die a horrible early death.
I think cutting global warming emissions by more than 50% is better than doing nothing.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 02:10:47 PM by JLee »

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #78 on: February 12, 2020, 01:56:47 PM »
I think cutting global emissions by more than 50% is better than doing nothing.

That analysis doesn't include any of the warming associated with building the roads. With that said, yes, cutting emissions by 50% will help a lot in the short term. It will make water shortages in 2050 less severe. It will make crop failures and sea level rise in 2100 more manageable. But much like the alcoholic that cuts their wine consumption from 5L a day to 2.5L per day, in the long run we will still be screwed. Or to be more specific, by the year 3000 we will still have 160 feet of sea level rise, and we will have squandered construction sand and CO2 budget that could have been used to build skyscrapers (more urban density) to build more roads.

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #79 on: February 12, 2020, 02:02:58 PM »
I think cutting global emissions by more than 50% is better than doing nothing.

That analysis doesn't include any of the warming associated with building the roads. With that said, yes, cutting emissions by 50% will help a lot in the short term. It will make water shortages in 2050 less severe. It will make crop failures and sea level rise in 2100 more manageable. But much like the alcoholic that cuts their wine consumption from 5L a day to 2.5L per day, in the long run we will still be screwed. Or to be more specific, by the year 3000 we will still have 160 feet of sea level rise, and we will have squandered construction sand and CO2 budget that could have been used to build skyscrapers (more urban density) to build more roads.

What roads do EVs require that ICE cars do not?

It's also projected to be a lot more than 50%:

Quote
EVs will become even cleaner as more electricity is generated by renewable sources of energy. In a grid composed of 80 percent renewable electricity, manufacturing a BEV will result in an over 25 percent reduction in emissions from manufacturing and an 84 percent reduction in emissions from driving—for an overall reduction of more than 60 percent (compared with a BEV manufactured and driven today).

A reduction in excess of 60% stacked on top of our existing 50%+ improvement results in cutting emissions by over 3/4.  That is massively significant.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 02:04:41 PM by JLee »

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #80 on: February 12, 2020, 02:09:01 PM »
What roads do EVs require that ICE cars do not?

I'll take "Things I didn't say" for 800, Alex.

Boofinator

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #81 on: February 12, 2020, 02:09:50 PM »
In this thread I am seeing a whole lot of excuses as to why we shouldn't try to be better simply because we can't be perfect.

Sometimes the perfect is the enemy of the good. Sometimes incremental improvement isn't good enough. If I'm a lifelong alcoholic and I reduce my wine consumption from five liters a day to three liters a day, that doesn't mean that I'm not going to die a horrible early death.

At the same time, you need to convince the alcoholic that they have a problem. And in this case, "the alcoholic" is actually closer to a billion alcoholics (Western-level consumers). So yes, let's start with the good, shall we?

One should also consider that alcohol withdrawal is extremely painful, and in fact people have been known to die from too severe withdrawal.

I think cutting global emissions by more than 50% is better than doing nothing.

Vehicular Emissions ≠ Global Emissions, though I agree with your sentiment. I mean, should we outlaw bikes because there is pollution involved in their manufacture?

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #82 on: February 12, 2020, 02:10:22 PM »
What roads do EVs require that ICE cars do not?

I'll take "Things I didn't say" for 800, Alex.

I am specifically comparing emissions from vehicle production and operation and you brought up roads, which are a different topic entirely.

In this thread I am seeing a whole lot of excuses as to why we shouldn't try to be better simply because we can't be perfect.

Sometimes the perfect is the enemy of the good. Sometimes incremental improvement isn't good enough. If I'm a lifelong alcoholic and I reduce my wine consumption from five liters a day to three liters a day, that doesn't mean that I'm not going to die a horrible early death.

At the same time, you need to convince the alcoholic that they have a problem. And in this case, "the alcoholic" is actually closer to a billion alcoholics (Western-level consumers). So yes, let's start with the good, shall we?

One should also consider that alcohol withdrawal is extremely painful, and in fact people have been known to die from too severe withdrawal.

I think cutting global emissions by more than 50% is better than doing nothing.

Vehicular Emissions ≠ Global Emissions, though I agree with your sentiment. I mean, should we outlaw bikes because there is pollution involved in their manufacture?

I missed a word there - my apologies.  Cars are a fairly small percentage of the overall problem -- cutting their environmental cost in half would make a much smaller impact on the overall picture.

mtnrider

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #83 on: February 12, 2020, 04:15:29 PM »
https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html

This is useful.  I'll have a long commute next year, unfortunately.  I live in a state where electric vehicles produce 10x less CO2.   It may be time to try a Chevy Bolt or a Tesla.

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #84 on: February 12, 2020, 04:29:16 PM »
In this thread I am seeing a whole lot of excuses as to why we shouldn't try to be better simply because we can't be perfect.

Sometimes the perfect is the enemy of the good. Sometimes incremental improvement isn't good enough. If I'm a lifelong alcoholic and I reduce my wine consumption from five liters a day to three liters a day, that doesn't mean that I'm not going to die a horrible early death.

I get your point, but there are limitations on what is possible.  Getting rid of cars isn't politically possible.  Full stop.  Kyle's suggestion that everyone simply consume less simply isn't going to happen.    You have to start with what is possible and what can happen.  Then you can make some progress. 

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #85 on: February 12, 2020, 04:32:10 PM »
https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html

This is useful.  I'll have a long commute next year, unfortunately.  I live in a state where electric vehicles produce 10x less CO2.   It may be time to try a Chevy Bolt or a Tesla.

I love my Bolt - I snagged a used one last year.  It is a lot of car for much less than a Model 3.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #86 on: February 12, 2020, 04:56:48 PM »

I think cutting global warming emissions by more than 50% is better than doing nothing.

I can halve the emissions from my car by driving it half as much. No need to buy a Tesla to do so.

Finding work closer to home, or moving your home closer to work, can help in this, if you live in some area with shitty public transport, and/or if cycling is impractical because of distance or road conditions. Whatever the financial and environmental cost of cars, I don't know many people who say they enjoy their driving commutes. The average car owner in a big Australian city spends about an hour altogether going from home to work and back again. There's usually another half-hour of driving to other places like shops and schools and hobbies. What fraction of that 90 minutes a day is enjoyable, and what fraction annoying, boring and frustrating?

From here
, we see that about 20% of people commute 5km or less, which can be walked. More than 40% do 5-20km, which can be cycled given the right local infrastructure - I wouldn't expect people to cycle along main roads with trucks, but suburban streets are generally fine. The rest are 20km or more, and they need either access to public transport, or to arrange their lives so that their workplace and homes are closer.

In my case, I spent 4 years working at a globogym, and unfortunately I had to drive. I had to be there at 0530. For the first year I got up at 0400 and cycled 24km. I spent this time applying for jobs closer by and didn't get them. Then that place closed and I got a job at another 3km up the road. It wasn't safe to cycle up this way because of the large vehicle traffic. Public transport would have involved a train 24km into the city, taking another train out 5km, then a tram the 3km up the road - but the earliest I could arrive after this 75 minutes of travel was 0645. So I drove. In this time I continued applying for jobs closer to home with no luck - there are few jobs in my sector, mostly it's rental and commission-based, and with a small child I needed something more secure.

I did that for 4 years and by then had built up my skills and reputation so that I could start my own business out of my garage. Now I fill my car 4 times a year. Obviously in that time we've done other things to reduce our impact, too.

Changing your lifestyle may take time and deliberate effort, but it can be done. This applies whatever your planned change, whether increasing your income, paying off a debt or saving money, changing careers, establishing a marriage and family, buying a yacht or reducing your environmental impact.

Yes, changing jobs may cost you money. Moving house will cost you money. But a Tesla costs money, too. Rather than $50k on a Tesla to halve my transport emissions while still driving 90 minutes a day and hating every minute of it, it may be worth paying that $50k extra for the home closer to work, or taking a pay cut for a workplace closer to home - and being able to drive 45 minutes a day, instead. This allows you an extra 45 minutes a day to earn more money, or spend time with your family, or watch Netflix or whatever you like to do - it's got to be more fun than sitting in traffic.

But you have to not be a complainypants, but decide to do it, and make plans to do it, learning from others who've done it.

Because of the religion of Science! in the West, we often look for a complicated expensive solution when a simple cheap one would do. You could buy a Tesla, or you could drive less. Which would better improve your quality of life?

Quote from: Telecaster
Kyle's suggestion that everyone simply consume less simply isn't going to happen.
Because of cognitive dissonance, we forget how much we ourselves change.  In 2003 over 70% of Democrat supporters in the US thought Iraq had WMD, by 2006 when they were asked if they'd ever believed Iraq had WMD, only 20% admitted it. "I always knew Dubya was lying." This is why it's so hard to find anyone whose parents or grandparents marched against desegregation. Change seems impossible, but happens bit by bit, and then suddenly all at once.

There have been many changes in Western society in the last century or two which people at the time thought were impossible and would never happen, but which on our looking back we now see as inevitable.

Fossil fuels are going to run short. The peak of conventional oil in 2005 helped precipitate the GFC a couple of years later; recession reduced demand, and allowed time for more marginal production to come online, though at the cost of more debts which can never be repaid (look into the economics of shale oil some time). So they'll run short and at some point we will have to use less. It's prudent to practice using less now so it's not so much of a shock later on. Collapse now and avoid the rush.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 05:00:08 PM by Kyle Schuant »

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #87 on: February 12, 2020, 05:53:00 PM »
Getting rid of cars isn't politically possible.

I mostly agree with you.

Kyle's suggestion that everyone simply consume less simply isn't going to happen.

Oh, it's going to happen. Maybe not within our lifetimes, but eventually humans are going to be living with something on the order of 1ft of sea level rise per year and all of the cheap construction sand will have been used up. I would hazard a guess that what sand we do have left will not be used for people to putter about in their single occupancy vehicles.

PKFFW

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #88 on: February 12, 2020, 07:00:52 PM »
You could buy a Tesla, or you could drive less. Which would better improve your quality of life?
I know this might be a radical idea in this black/white, wrong/right, either/or world we seem to live in but there is a third option in addition to the two you stated.

You could drive less and use a Tesla(or other EV).

Of the three options, which do you think would better improve the quality of your, and everyone else's, life?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #89 on: February 12, 2020, 10:58:21 PM »
But then I'd have to buy a Tesla.

The cheapest second-hand Tesla runs about $65k. Let's say I get lucky and I find one for $50k. Then each year there's another $2k in registration and insurance. In 10 years that's $74k, or $7.4k a year. That's $140 pw. It'd be cheaper to take a taxi.

Again: electric vehicles have a larger carbon and other pollution impact during manufacturing than petrol cars, they have a lower impact ongoing unless your area's mostly coal-generated power, which my state of Victoria is - an EV is actually higher-impact than a petrol-driven car, since the electricity is coming from coal with losses in the turbine and along the power lines, etc.

[/size]But for people in areas not as dependent on coal, if you drive a lot, then an EV will have a lower lifetime impact than a petrol vehicle. If you drive very little, a petrol vehicle will actually be lower-impact than a very little driven EV.
[/size]Driving less costs me nothing, and in fact saves me money. I thought this was a website about saving money? As well, if more people have EVs, then we need more electricity generation. And renewables aren't zero-impact, they're just less-impact; they still have hundreds of tonnes of concrete and steel and so on. It's well to note that the generation from renewables added each year worldwide is less than the increased demand each year. Overall, our consumption of energy rises faster than we can build renewables, and so our consumption of fossil fuels continues to rise. We just need to use less. Again: at some point this stuff will run short, and we'll have to use less. It's much less painful if change is by choice rather than forced. In Australia, the increased demand would in practice be met by keeping old coal-fired stations open. And for each unit of energy or transport, coal has a much higher impact than petrol-burning. I don't want to contribute to that.

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #90 on: February 13, 2020, 07:00:31 AM »
For anyone who didn't go here: https://blog.ucsusa.org/rachael-nealer/gasoline-vs-electric-global-warming-emissions-953



They are also assuming an unnecessarily limited lifespan for vehicles (both ICE and EV). Extending their lifespan would further increase the delta.

But then I'd have to buy a Tesla.

The cheapest second-hand Tesla runs about $65k. Let's say I get lucky and I find one for $50k. Then each year there's another $2k in registration and insurance. In 10 years that's $74k, or $7.4k a year. That's $140 pw. It'd be cheaper to take a taxi.

Again: electric vehicles have a larger carbon and other pollution impact during manufacturing than petrol cars, they have a lower impact ongoing unless your area's mostly coal-generated power, which my state of Victoria is - an EV is actually higher-impact than a petrol-driven car, since the electricity is coming from coal with losses in the turbine and along the power lines, etc.

[/size]But for people in areas not as dependent on coal, if you drive a lot, then an EV will have a lower lifetime impact than a petrol vehicle. If you drive very little, a petrol vehicle will actually be lower-impact than a very little driven EV.
[/size]Driving less costs me nothing, and in fact saves me money. I thought this was a website about saving money? As well, if more people have EVs, then we need more electricity generation. And renewables aren't zero-impact, they're just less-impact; they still have hundreds of tonnes of concrete and steel and so on. It's well to note that the generation from renewables added each year worldwide is less than the increased demand each year. Overall, our consumption of energy rises faster than we can build renewables, and so our consumption of fossil fuels continues to rise. We just need to use less. Again: at some point this stuff will run short, and we'll have to use less. It's much less painful if change is by choice rather than forced. In Australia, the increased demand would in practice be met by keeping old coal-fired stations open. And for each unit of energy or transport, coal has a much higher impact than petrol-burning. I don't want to contribute to that.

I paid $19k for my Bolt and it costs me about $40/year to register. It's not my fault you live in Australia. :P

Quote
I can halve the emissions from my car by driving it half as much. No need to buy a Tesla to do so.
And by halving your emissions by driving half as much, you're still polluting ever so slightly more than someone who didn't change their behavior but drives an EV. Congrats, I guess! As @PKFFW suggests, there is the option to do both.  The 2yo EV I bought used had nearly 60k miles on it already, so whoever bought that (it was a company car) saved a LOT of pollution by putting those miles on an EV.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 07:08:57 AM by JLee »

Boofinator

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #91 on: February 13, 2020, 07:31:54 AM »
Oh, it's going to happen. Maybe not within our lifetimes, but eventually humans are going to be living with something on the order of 1ft of sea level rise per year and all of the cheap construction sand will have been used up. I would hazard a guess that what sand we do have left will not be used for people to putter about in their single occupancy vehicles.

That's over an order of magnitude higher than even the worst-case estimates for the rate of sea level rise that I have seen (a bit less than an inch per year). Would you be kind enough to share your source?

Note that even at half an inch per year of sea level rise, we'd be facing four feet per century, which would be devastating to future generations.

LennStar

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #92 on: February 13, 2020, 09:19:13 AM »
That 1ft per year (how much is a feet in usabel systems?) is probably from the 6 degree route. 60m rise until 2200, basically no ice left.

That analysis doesn't include any of the warming associated with building the roads. With that said, yes, cutting emissions by 50% will help a lot in the short term.

More breathing room in the short term coudl mean we have the time t prevent the worst in the long term. A small hope, but still possible.


btw. Since someone brings up building sand all the time: Don't put any money on the bet that it will run out. A year ago there was a newspaper article here about a prof from a university 100km away from me that had found a way to make building sand out of desert sand and is founding a new company to sell that.
Unsurprisingly the oil sheiks are very interested.

dougules

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #93 on: February 13, 2020, 10:09:51 AM »
You could buy a Tesla, or you could drive less. Which would better improve your quality of life?
I know this might be a radical idea in this black/white, wrong/right, either/or world we seem to live in but there is a third option in addition to the two you stated.

You could drive less and use a Tesla(or other EV).

Of the three options, which do you think would better improve the quality of your, and everyone else's, life?

Yes, I think it's good to do both, but the issue is more a psychological one.  People are getting wrapped up in the conversation about electric vehicles, and it seems to obscure the conversation about reducing the amount of driving in general and reworking our infrastructure to stop favoring POVs.  I'm all for switching to greener cars as long as it doesn't overshadow the idea of reducing driving altogether. 

ketchup

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #94 on: February 13, 2020, 10:28:53 AM »
Hope I don't regret slipping into this mess.

If you're an individual, your changes and choices essentially don't matter unless you're tooling around in a private jet every day.  Sorry, but that's the case.  I still do what I can given my lifestyle, but I do recognize that real differences are made with collective action.  And where does collective action happen? Policymaking.  If I'm a politician, I can't really do much about people choosing to drive more or less.  But I sure can encourage ICE->EV conversion through incentives, tradeins, or what-have-you.  Certainly more politically possible than doubling the price of gas (which would be probably the only way to actually force people to drive less but if France is any indication would lead to riots in the streets).

My own armchair-expert magic-wand "solution" from that angle would be to do a cash-for-clunkers style trade-in program whose eligibility starts out restricted to vehicles past a certain age or mileage.  Maybe couple it with increasing the cost of new ICE cars Norway-style.  Crushing a five year old car with only 100,000 miles on the clock to replace with a new EV would be super dumb emissions-wise, but a worn out 250,000 mile 20 year old car with a leaky exhaust manifold that gets 15MPG? Why not encourage replacing that with an EV?  Policy putting its thumb on the scale in this direction would be probably far more effective than whatever could be come with to force reduced automobile use.  That has to be far more organic and abstract (walkable neighborhoods, affordable housing close to where people work, etc.) to be effective.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 10:30:27 AM by ketchup »

Boofinator

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #95 on: February 13, 2020, 11:13:39 AM »
But I sure can encourage ICE->EV conversion through incentives, tradeins, or what-have-you.  Certainly more politically possible than doubling the price of gas (which would be probably the only way to actually force people to drive less but if France is any indication would lead to riots in the streets).

The big problem in France appeared to be that they used the carbon tax revenues to pay off national debt. Now, presumably this money is going to the people (since the debt was used to pay for various social programs), but that would involve long-term thinking. And most people generally suck at long-term thinking; all they see is a lot less money in their pockets. So they riot. (And the French love their riots!)

I think carbon taxes can work (and would be the most effective policy if used aggressively), but that they need to be revenue neutral in order to get political buy-in (at least in the current political environment). They should also be used in conjunction with other policies, to include subsidizing efficient products, encouraging R&D, etc.

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #96 on: February 13, 2020, 12:03:06 PM »
That 1ft per year (how much is a feet in usabel systems?) is probably from the 6 degree route. 60m rise until 2200, basically no ice left.

Yea, I'm having a really hard time finding the study, but someone once projected that most of that sea level rise would be packed into 30 years or so, and that those 30 years would be really bad.

That's over an order of magnitude higher than even the worst-case estimates for the rate of sea level rise that I have seen (a bit less than an inch per year). Would you be kind enough to share your source?

Note that even at half an inch per year of sea level rise, we'd be facing four feet per century, which would be devastating to future generations.

Most of the studies you see stop at 2100, but I probably overstated the issue. Or rather, the mechanics of the collapse of the sea ice are not well understood, so the timeline isn't well understood. On top of that is all the uncertainly around how the trapped arctic carbon (methane/co2) will be released. So, I'll leave you will a quote from the IPCC:

Under RCP8.5, the rate of SLR will be 15 mm yr–1 (10–20 mm yr–1, likelyrange) in 2100, and could exceed several cm yr–1 in the 22nd century - https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/

RCP8.5 is the business as usual scenario with something like 4.2C of warming by 2100 (but possibly up to 6C) by the very conservative IPCC.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 01:17:35 PM by PDXTabs »

PKFFW

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #97 on: February 13, 2020, 01:58:04 PM »
But then I'd have to buy a Tesla.
You must have missed the part where I wrote (or other EV).  Plenty of cheaper options than a Tesla.

Also, I never meant to imply you should do both.  It's entirely up to you.  Personally I don't own an EV and due to living in regional NSW and the currently limited range of EV's, I don't own an EV either and can't see myself buying one any time soon.

I was merely trying to point out that your decision to frame it as a choice between either driving less or buying a Tesla was ignoring a third option.

Plina

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #98 on: February 16, 2020, 01:21:53 PM »
That 1ft per year (how much is a feet in usabel systems?) is probably from the 6 degree route. 60m rise until 2200, basically no ice left.

That analysis doesn't include any of the warming associated with building the roads. With that said, yes, cutting emissions by 50% will help a lot in the short term.

More breathing room in the short term coudl mean we have the time t prevent the worst in the long term. A small hope, but still possible.


btw. Since someone brings up building sand all the time: Don't put any money on the bet that it will run out. A year ago there was a newspaper article here about a prof from a university 100km away from me that had found a way to make building sand out of desert sand and is founding a new company to sell that.
Unsurprisingly the oil sheiks are very interested.

Sand is actually being replaced with crushed rock in roads so the use of sand in roads is decreasing rapidly. The problem is rather in replacing sand in concrete but there is research going on in the field. At least that is happening here because you want to protect groundwater.

Plina

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Re: Is Tesla Really Good for the environment comparably?
« Reply #99 on: February 16, 2020, 01:27:04 PM »
It is broke. Unless you don't think climate change is real either, in which case I guess we should just keep dinojuice around forever and try to use less of it, which isn't going to happen.
Why isn't it going to happen?


Many people like to argue for their preferred lifestyle, social change or lack thereof, etc, by saying it's inevitable. Why is an endless rise in consumption inevitable?


And what of the finiteness of these resources? Not only oil, but lithium, etc? Are you aware that if Musk ever achieved his planned level of EV production, it would use the world's entire current production of lithium? Do you imagine the lithium production process requires zero energy and produces no pollution? We cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet. At some point we run into shortages, which means at some point we must... consume less. If you know you are going to be made redundant and will you lose your current income, do you drop your spending now, or wait until security comes and escorts you from the building?

Why can’t the batteries be recycled as current car batteries?

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!