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Other => Off Topic => Topic started by: Meowkins on October 08, 2018, 08:20:18 AM

Title: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 08, 2018, 08:20:18 AM
Reactions range from "Yeah, it's actually worse" to "Not surprised it's this bad" but any enviro policy/science folks or enthusiasts have anything encouraging to say?

As a disclaimer, I'm an American in the South, so it's kind of a bleak situation in these parts as it is.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sixwings on October 08, 2018, 09:19:46 AM
My friend who is a climate scientist said that was a fairly optimistic report. His take is that it's not possible even if gov'ts take drastic steps. He's actually a pretty depressing dude to have beers with. It does really depress me, I love being outside and enjoying nature. It will be sad to see the impacts on nature as natural food systems collapse for animals like bears. Like as the oceans acidify and the salmon die off the entire west coast up to Alaska is just going to collapse.

Unless we create technology that can reverse climate change (like tech that removes carbon from the atmosphere which isn't very plausible at this point), climate change is going to happen and it's probably going to be disastrous for a lot of people. I'm not having kids, the world they will inherit is going to be terrible.

If I were you I'd consider getting out of the South and relocating to some of the northern states or Canada if you can swing it. In North America the refugee movements is going to be interesting, much of south america and the southern US won't be habitable due to droughts and water shortages driving people north to the Canadian border who have lots of fresh water. Conflict at the southern border as more people from mexico/south america try to move north to escape climate change is inevitable and I think it'll be likely that there will be some reorganization of states and merger with Canada. That may be more like a 2100 thing though.

On the plus side, I'm investing in Canadian wineries a lot. By 2050 the USA will have lost like 85% of it's wine producing regions and Canada will be the wine capital of North America. So I've got that going for me, which is nice.

Also, go traveling to see reefs and stuff now. By 2030 they'll all be mostly dead.

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic and it won't be that bad, but the likely scenario is a lot worse than "a few parts of NYC may flood". Total ecological collapse and a great extinction is going to make it very difficult to live on this planet.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Barbaebigode on October 08, 2018, 09:22:07 AM
We're fucked. And there are far right candidates winning elections all over the globe and we know what those guys think about climate change.

But I'm not a "enviro policy/science folks or enthusiast", so take my pessimism with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 08, 2018, 09:59:43 AM
Thanks for responses! Seems like you guys are also in the dumps about this.

Fortunately, I spoke with a friend who worked on Montreal and her response was this:

There's lots to hope for. We're putting huge dents in climate change with Montreal. The IPCC has differences of opinions from other scientists. Not opposing, but there's much more subtlety in debates of scientists (and especially on the degrees) than the public understands.

As far as technology goes, I'm actually more optimistic there. There are plenty of ways (https://drawdown.org) to reduce carbon emissions *and* reduce the amount of carbon in the environment.

I think US politics is garbage and we're probably not going to be part of the solution on any Fed level but China is one of the largest emitters and also the fastest at creating huge scale change, so there is that.

I don't plan to stay in the South, no worries. I don't own a home here, I just live here turning the state purple for a time.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 08, 2018, 10:57:46 AM
I simply do not see the political or individual will to make adequate changes in time to make a substantive difference. There are many, many things that can be done to reduce emissions ranging from diet, to commute, to travel. However, even among those people I know who have reasonable knowledge of climate impacts, I don't see actual changes in behavior that are substantive. Try suggesting "less air travel" to a group of friends some time and see the glazed looks.

It is no secret that the current federal-level political structure is not encouraging on this topic.

I think a lot of people have their heads in the sand, and are either oblivious or hope that there will be a magic pill via technology/geoengineering/or some consumer product/app that will make it all better.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 08, 2018, 11:41:39 AM
I simply do not see the political or individual will to make adequate changes in time to make a substantive difference. There are many, many things that can be done to reduce emissions ranging from diet, to commute, to travel. However, even among those people I know who have reasonable knowledge of climate impacts, I don't see actual changes in behavior that are substantive. Try suggesting "less air travel" to a group of friends some time and see the glazed looks.

It is no secret that the current federal-level political structure is not encouraging on this topic.

I think a lot of people have their heads in the sand, and are either oblivious or hope that there will be a magic pill via technology/geoengineering/or some consumer product/app that will make it all better.

Washington has a carbon tax vote coming up that should pass.

Global warming will be one of those things that, in 20 years, you won't find anyone who admits to opposing it back in 2018.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Barbaebigode on October 08, 2018, 11:55:05 AM
I simply do not see the political or individual will to make adequate changes in time to make a substantive difference. There are many, many things that can be done to reduce emissions ranging from diet, to commute, to travel. However, even among those people I know who have reasonable knowledge of climate impacts, I don't see actual changes in behavior that are substantive. Try suggesting "less air travel" to a group of friends some time and see the glazed looks.

It is no secret that the current federal-level political structure is not encouraging on this topic.

I think a lot of people have their heads in the sand, and are either oblivious or hope that there will be a magic pill via technology/geoengineering/or some consumer product/app that will make it all better.

Washington has a carbon tax vote coming up that should pass.

Global warming will be one of those things that, in 20 years, you won't find anyone who admits to opposing it back in 2018.

Yeah, by then their position will evolve to "it's too late now to do anything".
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wenchsenior on October 08, 2018, 12:11:00 PM
I simply do not see the political or individual will to make adequate changes in time to make a substantive difference. There are many, many things that can be done to reduce emissions ranging from diet, to commute, to travel. However, even among those people I know who have reasonable knowledge of climate impacts, I don't see actual changes in behavior that are substantive. Try suggesting "less air travel" to a group of friends some time and see the glazed looks.

It is no secret that the current federal-level political structure is not encouraging on this topic.

I think a lot of people have their heads in the sand, and are either oblivious or hope that there will be a magic pill via technology/geoengineering/or some consumer product/app that will make it all better.

Washington has a carbon tax vote coming up that should pass.

Global warming will be one of those things that, in 20 years, you won't find anyone who admits to opposing it back in 2018.

I always like to hear from optimists, but this is what the more optimistic among us in the biology fields used to believe.  Back in the late 1990s.

On the contrary, I suspect that as the consequences of climate change become more apparent and more severe, we will become even LESS able to act to correct it.  The best window, politically speaking, to act was back in the late 90s or early 2000s, when the scientific community already had a good handle on the scope of the crisis but it hadn't yet become politicized.  We have proceeded from a highly partisan political environment in the 1990s, when parties argued over the best policies to reduce carbon emissions, to an unimaginably partisan environment now, where policies are developed in a post-factual, anti-science environment where legitimate data have no weight, and each element of the crisis is/will be used for short-term political gain.

Humans are not, I think, wired correctly to manage anything but short-term crises. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 08, 2018, 12:15:05 PM
@wenchsenior That's a cool perspective to hear, re: the attitude in 90s vs now.

I'm curious as to the tone on the topic, though. Certainly it's dire, so that's not what surprises me. But why are we only talking about federal US politics as the make or break on this? Speaking as someone from the south, there are surprising alliances (Read: tea party and radical liberals) on issues ranging from protecting waterways to solar/wind power on state level. California continues to be a prime example of what a state can do, despite federal meddling and push back. State and local seem like quite fine ways of addressing energy and land use. 

And, like I said, there's a whole globe of international players that don't have to deal with the same political environment re: climate change and plan to move forward on this with or without the US.

So... I donno. Seems like there are plenty of places to channel this energy and some cause for not complete despair?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 08, 2018, 12:30:33 PM
@wenchsenior That's a cool perspective to hear, re: the attitude in 90s vs now.

I'm curious as to the tone on the topic, though. Certainly it's dire, so that's not what surprises me. But why are we only talking about federal US politics as the make or break on this? Speaking as someone from the south, there are surprising alliances (Read: tea party and radical liberals) on issues ranging from protecting waterways to solar/wind power on state level. California continues to be a prime example of what a state can do, despite federal meddling and push back. State and local seem like quite fine ways of addressing energy and land use. 

And, like I said, there's a whole globe of international players that don't have to deal with the same political environment re: climate change and plan to move forward on this with or without the US.

So... I donno. Seems like there are plenty of places to channel this energy and some cause for not complete despair?

This is a problem where federal leverage is needed on things like energy policy through subsidy, policy and regulation. Doing it piecemeal is better than nothing, but it also sets up a perverse economic environment where there will be a simultaneous incentive for businesses to migrate to states with lower environmental bars. (See the credit card industry if you want an example of how this plays out).

I can mirror wenchsenior's experience in biology on the earth science side. I was in the lab with some of the key scientists doing work on climate change in the early 90s. The story is much more fleshed out now, but the key message has not really changed that much since then: less carbon and the sooner the better. The politicization and intentional disinformation campaigns about climate change have been very disheartening. The acceleration of those trends over the last two years (and ever successive year of inaction is more critical than the last) has been disturbing.

So yes, continue channeling your energy in the right direction, but the prognosis is pretty bleak beyond  the local level.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: MasterStache on October 08, 2018, 01:01:18 PM
I simply do not see the political or individual will to make adequate changes in time to make a substantive difference. There are many, many things that can be done to reduce emissions ranging from diet, to commute, to travel. However, even among those people I know who have reasonable knowledge of climate impacts, I don't see actual changes in behavior that are substantive. Try suggesting "less air travel" to a group of friends some time and see the glazed looks.

It is no secret that the current federal-level political structure is not encouraging on this topic.

I think a lot of people have their heads in the sand, and are either oblivious or hope that there will be a magic pill via technology/geoengineering/or some consumer product/app that will make it all better.

Washington has a carbon tax vote coming up that should pass.

Global warming will be one of those things that, in 20 years, you won't find anyone who admits to opposing it back in 2018.

Yeah, by then their position will evolve to "it's too late now to do anything".

Ehh they will still deny it's happening. Rubio still won't admit that humans are rapidly altering the climate, meanwhile Miami is continually seeking hundreds of millions to mitigate the floods ensuing from continually rising sea levels. I'm pretty sure he could be standing in knee deep water in downtown Miami surrounded by Octopus and catfish muttering the favorite denialist catchphrase "ehh the climate has always been changing."

I think we are past the tipping point. It will just take a while in human years, for the climate to catch up. It certainly doesn't mean we shouldn't all be doing our own parts and lobbying those in power to make changes as well.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on October 08, 2018, 02:23:40 PM
One of the things that depresses me is the behaviour of people on this forum.  We are supposed to be logical, and rational, and think about the future.  We maximise earnings, arrange tax efficient savings, plan our finances decades into the future.  We even somewhat limit commute times, sometimes, and some of us (not very many, it seems) even drive slightly more fuel-efficient cars.  And then some of us, possibly most of us, fly all over the fucking planet at the drop of a hat for entirely selfish reasons.   Even Pete does it.  Oh, and have kids.  More than two, in many cases.

And then there are threads like this wailing about the state of the planet.  We are all the problem.  And that problem is going to come home to all of us who haven't died of old age by about 2050.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 08, 2018, 02:37:58 PM
@former player  *scratches head* I dunno. I hear what you're saying on the pessimism in this thread, that is true. But honestly, most mustachians are making great environmental decisions.

Yeah, flying less is a big deal. But actually, I'm fairly sure reducing food waste and generally moving away from a meat-heavy diet are far more impactful in terms of reducing carbon emissions. Which many, many mustachians do anyway. Mustachian tendencies towards frugality also support initiatives like solar/wind power, which are pretty high up on the list of ways that we can reduce emissions. We buy fuel efficient cars. Many of use whatever land we do own wisely, and contribute to local food economies and ecosystems.

:) I think you're selling us short!!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 08, 2018, 02:47:49 PM
I think former player's point is that even though we do a lot of things that are good for the environment as a result of frugality and health, quite a few of us have major blind spots and make carbon-intensive choices even though we acknowledge the serious nature of climate change simply because we want certain experiences.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 08, 2018, 02:55:02 PM
I understood that from his post, yeah. I was suggesting a reframe.

For example, there's a great article I will try to dig up on why a prominent climate scientist doesn't dissuade people from having children. Essentially, her argument was that it's absurd to tell people not to have children at all rather than do something about, say, giving money and attention to global efforts to educate women on family planning and access to contraceptives, which would have a much larger impact anyway.

Anyway, I think people should do whatever works for them. Frustration over people not acting 100% rationally in the interest of the climate over all aspects of their varied lives is too all or nothing for it to work for me, but that's just me!!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wenchsenior on October 08, 2018, 02:55:31 PM
One of the things that depresses me is the behaviour of people on this forum.  We are supposed to be logical, and rational, and think about the future.  We maximise earnings, arrange tax efficient savings, plan our finances decades into the future.  We even somewhat limit commute times, sometimes, and some of us (not very many, it seems) even drive slightly more fuel-efficient cars.  And then some of us, possibly most of us, fly all over the fucking planet at the drop of a hat for entirely selfish reasons.   Even Pete does it.  Oh, and have kids.  More than two, in many cases.

And then there are threads like this wailing about the state of the planet.  We are all the problem.  And that problem is going to come home to all of us who haven't died of old age by about 2050.

Yes, I suspect it's a problem of how we perceive the balance of personal benefit/personal sacrifice.  Being frugal has some tangible benefits for us as individuals. Some are short term (improved health b/c we bike or walk rather than drive, less use of gas money, etc). Some are longer term but within our hypothetical lifetime (short term sacrifice for FI within our reasonable lifetimes, personal financial security from building up an emergency fund).

 But the actions to cut carbon emissions feel like pissing in the wind given the scale of the problem, and most of the worst effects that are tangible won't be felt in my lifetime (most likely).  And while some of the individual actions we can take don't cost us much in $ or time or energy or life satisfaction, many DO cost us, individually, and give us no tangible benefit (though they might give us moral satisfaction).

 E.g., although environmental issues are by FAR our biggest socio-political and professional concern, DH and I do not optimize every choice we make in life based on those criteria b/c to do so would impose negative costs in almost all cases.  Again, with little benefit to our lives.  It doesn't cost us much to recycle, or buy less stuff, or live in a small house, or drive one relatively efficient car.  And we made the decision to never have kids partly b/c of our values.  There are some changes we are trying to adopt such as eating less meat, which come with some sacrifice (we like meat and sometimes miss it when we don't eat it).  Then there are changes (like not flying) that would require real, painful life-satisfaction sacrifice that we haven't been willing to make. Or there are things like solar panels, that would require a $ outlay that we would be unlikely to ever recoup, so a real sacrifice there as well.  Those are the tough things for us, b/c doing them comes at real personal cost, for no tangible benefit to us.
 
It's a little bit like when a ton of people (including myself) insist on this forum that we want to pay more in taxes (to shore up the safety net, fund health care, cut carbon, or whatever).  And inevitably, others say "well, what's stopping you? don't take deductions, etc., but don't try to raise MY taxes!" And of course, that strikes most of us as ridiculous.  Why would we penalize ourselves so much personally when society doesn't even support the goal of the sacrifice?  So most of us that favor higher taxes will still act every year to optimize our own tax situation. It would be irrational not to.

That's the fundamental problem with the scale of the challenge and why I suspect we (as a society) will never address it. Tragedy of the commons etc.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 08, 2018, 02:57:41 PM
To be clear, I believe we're beyond fucked. I've been pretty sure of this for a few years now. Reading books like Overshoot by William Catton Jr. make it pretty clear.

But I'm fighting anyhow. How?

1. went vegan / whole food plant based a year ago
2. I organize a local activist group to nudge others to stop eating meat and dairy because the vertebrate biomass of livestock is not only a major source of GHGs, it's wiping out whole ecosystems and driving wild species into extinction at alarming rates. The phrase 'you can't be an environmentalist and eat animals or their by-products' is truer now more than ever.  Just last night, at one of the events I organize, 15 people wholeheartedly agreed to sign up at vegan22.com to get 22 days of support transitioning to a vegan/WFPB diet.
3. I started a crowdfund to end all fed subsidies to animal agriculture. You can donate here:
https://www.lobbyists4good.org/animal-ag-subsidies
4. I joined the Vegan Justice League which you can join too for at least a $50 a year membership (https://www.gofundme.com/vegan-justice-league-lobbying-group?sharetype=teams&member=813716&rcid=r01-153899858171-9db698ddbe444779&pc=ot_co_campmgmt_w) for more long term lobbying efforts to end market-distorting subsidies to animal ag in the US.
5. I'm making videos to help us members in the VJL understand the details of the farm subsidies and come up with proposals to help farmers transition to growing crops for human consumption.
6. I voted in the mid-terms elections already.
7. I contact my reps regularly telling them how I want them to vote on all things that affect the environment.

If we all did 5-10 steps like this, well, humanity would still be fucked. We've emitted too much of that ancient sunlight I doubt we'll ever get it back in the ground where it belongs. But maybe we could stop stealing from our kids future, and give them back a few extra years of hospitable planet.  No matter what,  I'm going to fight anyway. The fuck else am I going to do? Whine? Stay angry at my father who sends me bullshit articles from the Manhattan Institute that tell us we can 'safely' ignore climate scientists?

Anyway, that's what I'm doing to widen my circle of influence and try to fix this shit. What are you doing?

If you don't know where to start, may I suggest eating lentils rather than beef, oat milk rather than cow's milk. And make this (https://www.exceedinglyvegan.com/vegan-recipes/dips-sauces-cheese/vegan-cranberry-cheese) instead of eating cheese. Join us in the Go Whole Food Plant-Based (WFPD) Diet in 2018 (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/throw-down-the-gauntlet/who-will-pledge-to-go-vegan-in-january-with-me) thread, over in the throw-down-the-gauntlet sub.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Yankuba on October 08, 2018, 03:04:27 PM
PTF

Climate change is one reason I am skeptical of 100% equities and FIRE. Can’t have perpetual 8% growth on a finite planet that is sick and overcrowded. If some of the dire climate projections come to pass the financial crisis will look like a cake walk.

+1 to my buddy Malaysia. If everyone limited their consumption of dead animals and dairy it would go a long way. Lots of great meatless substitutes out there
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Yankuba on October 08, 2018, 03:21:00 PM
A couple of people mentioned wind power but it turns out it isn’t a magic bullet! This article just came out:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2018-10-04/wind-power-isn-t-as-clean-as-we-thought-it-was
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 08, 2018, 03:30:20 PM
Quote
Recently Harwatt and a team of scientists from Oregon State University, Bard College, and Loma Linda University calculated just what would happen if every American made one dietary change: substituting beans for beef. They found that if everyone were willing and able to do that—hypothetically—the U.S. could still come close to meeting its 2020 greenhouse-gas emission goals, pledged by President Barack Obama in 2009.

-- https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/08/if-everyone-ate-beans-instead-of-beef/535536/

Seriously. I wasn't joking.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wordnerd on October 08, 2018, 03:30:39 PM
This report, like all things climate change, makes me feel fatalistic and powerless. But, we have to keep trying. I'm actually in the midst of a lot of environmentally friendly life changes. We sold one car. Our remaining (electric) vehicle will be charged on mostly hydro power. We are downsizing to less than half our previous space. We will not have a yard. We will fly less (no cross country trips to see family). We have significantly slimmed our possessions by donating. I will vote yes on the nation's first carbon tax next month. I am also considering becoming vegetarian. And I know, even with these changes, I am still.incredibly bad for the earth.

State level policy gives me some hope, as do potential technological advances. But, I have trouble finding much optimism.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 08, 2018, 03:32:07 PM
A couple of people mentioned wind power but it turns out it isn’t so great for the environment! This article just came out:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2018-10-04/wind-power-isn-t-as-clean-as-we-thought-it-was

A 0.24 C gain is a lot better than what we're looking at with coal plants.

Really, the problem is too many people. Even if we blanketed our roofs with solar panels, there won't be enough resources for panels for all 7.5B of us to live the life of an American or Aussie. We either need some serious birth control or a complete remake of our cities and society.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Barbaebigode on October 08, 2018, 04:24:20 PM
A couple of people mentioned wind power but it turns out it isn’t so great for the environment! This article just came out:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2018-10-04/wind-power-isn-t-as-clean-as-we-thought-it-was

A 0.24 C gain is a lot better than what we're looking at with coal plants.

Really, the problem is too many people. Even if we blanketed our roofs with solar panels, there won't be enough resources for panels for all 7.5B of us to live the life of an American or Aussie. We either need some serious birth control or a complete remake of our cities and society.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

China had about 1 billion inhabitants when the one child policy began, now it has almost 1,4 billion. Mostly due to an increasing life expectancy. Birth control schemes take decades to lower population numbers, and we are heading to a fertility rate below replacement rate anyway.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: MasterStache on October 08, 2018, 04:48:27 PM
One of the things that depresses me is the behaviour of people on this forum.  We are supposed to be logical, and rational, and think about the future.  We maximise earnings, arrange tax efficient savings, plan our finances decades into the future.  We even somewhat limit commute times, sometimes, and some of us (not very many, it seems) even drive slightly more fuel-efficient cars.  And then some of us, possibly most of us, fly all over the fucking planet at the drop of a hat for entirely selfish reasons.   Even Pete does it.  Oh, and have kids.  More than two, in many cases.

And then there are threads like this wailing about the state of the planet.  We are all the problem.  And that problem is going to come home to all of us who haven't died of old age by about 2050.

Why does it depress you? I mean I understand but I have been diving deeper and even getting my kids thinking about their circle of control. Hell I used the phrase last night when my brother was pissed off because we lost 1 game in volleyball. I wasn't real pleased when my spouse decided to drive the entire 1/4 mile up to our daughter's school the other day. 

Also I don't think it's going to take until 2050. The impacts of human induced climate change are already being felt and have been for a while. It's just often times hard to see because we view it from a human time scale. I told both my kids the other day that I feel bad for the kind of planet they are inheriting and their offspring after them. And I have totally reversed course on wanting to live on the coast. Fuck that!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 08, 2018, 05:14:21 PM
@Malaysia41 I haven't read Overshoot! I looked at a review just now as well as the synopsis. It doesn't seem particularly focused on climate change, but if I'm understanding correctly, the idea is that human beings are inevitably going to ruin themselves with exhausting our resources in general. I'd love to hear more about why you recommend this as reading material, since you obviously are making very thoughtful lifestyle changes and advocating in many ways!

@wordnerd It is pretty dismal feeling! A 10 year timeline feels so so so short, even if that's "optimistic" by some standards. I guess we can't do anything but keep doing our best. Can't wait to get baby outside in the real world so I can feel more like a normal person and can get back to trying to be more involved locally.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: jrhampt on October 08, 2018, 05:34:07 PM
This concerns me directly because a very large portion of my town is in a flood plain and less than 15 ft above sea level.  Things I (we) are doing: no children, fuel efficient cars, energy efficient appliances and light bulbs, low flow everything, extra insulation, and solar panels.  I don’t eat a whole lot of meat but am a dairy fiend, though, and my extended family is spread all over the place so I fly at least a few times a year.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 08, 2018, 06:16:24 PM
The problem isn't the climate change.  The elephant in the room is the size of the human population.  The earth can't sustain 7.5 billion people.

But, nobody wants to discuss it.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 08, 2018, 06:30:16 PM
The problem isn't the climate change.  The elephant in the room is the size of the human population.  The earth can't sustain 7.5 billion people.

But, nobody wants to discuss it.
Plenty of us want to discuss it, but those who do discuss it are also the ones who are far less likely to have more than 2 kids. There are significant social/religious institutions that encourage procreation and are, as a population, simultaneously more skeptical of the veracity of human influence on climate change. There are literally members of Congress who believe (or at least say they do) that God will solve climate change- if it is even a thing. If science is not a fundamental part of the decision process, it ends up being a dead end. Addressing overpopulation is a parallel example of people generally not taking ownership of the big picture in their own decisions. 

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Johnez on October 08, 2018, 06:50:20 PM
The problem isn't the climate change.  The elephant in the room is the size of the human population.  The earth can't sustain 7.5 billion people.

But, nobody wants to discuss it.

Quite a few people discuss it, it's just there aren't any easy solutions. Birth control is not going to stop anything. The population growth is coming from poor countries, developing countries. The pollution is disproportionately coming from the already developed countries that have slowed down population growth. Slowing down population growth in Africa or India isn't going to do all that much. The majority of people in this world are really poor and contribute a tiny amount of pollution individually as compared to wealthy Americans or Europeans. Developed countries taking the lead in reducing emissions is the necessary step because when the developing countries step up, their population growth will slow down as America, Europe, and Japan has. Having a technology to grow into such as solar electricity, electric cars, and perhaps greener farming methods that are tried and true will do more than birth control. Steering countries away from environmentally damaging technologies is the sound step.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: waltworks on October 08, 2018, 06:51:09 PM
Look, the elephant in the room is this: the warming is baked in at this point. Eat vegan all you want, stop flying... it doesn't matter. There's already enough carbon in the atmosphere that big changes will happen. And your vegan not-flying lifestyle *still* isn't sustainable - *nobody* who lives in a modern society is living a sustainable lifestyle unless you're going full freegan/living in a tree.

So we're going to have to geoengineer our way out. Period. It's time to stop talking about driving less (I ride a bike everywhere, but for the climate it's probably a waste of time) and talk about making sure we can grow crops (anti-GMO people, you are welcome to starve) and maybe putting some extra sulfates in the upper atmosphere if things get really bad. And being realistic - we need a humming economy to develop better renewable energy tech. At this point we probably need to keep burning fossil fuels to get there.

We are going to have to live with elevated CO2 levels and their consequences for a while. That means we should be planning for that, not endlessly recycling the "let's tax carbon and all drive a Prius!" and "but the scientists aren't SURE, let's do more research also Al Gore argle bargle" BS spouted by both sides of the debate.

It's almost as if both liberals and conservatives *want* civilization to collapse, both through willful ignorance.

-W
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wenchsenior on October 08, 2018, 06:57:55 PM
The problem isn't the climate change.  The elephant in the room is the size of the human population.  The earth can't sustain 7.5 billion people.

But, nobody wants to discuss it.
Plenty of us want to discuss it, but those who do discuss it are also the ones who are far less likely to have more than 2 kids. There are significant social/religious institutions that encourage procreation and are, as a population, simultaneously more skeptical of the veracity of human influence on climate change. There are literally members of Congress who believe (or at least say they do) that God will solve climate change- if it is even a thing. If science is not a fundamental part of the decision process, it ends up being a dead end. Addressing overpopulation is a parallel example of people generally not taking ownership of the big picture in their own decisions.

Absolutely many of us want to discuss it.  I remember back in the early 90s...I was taking a class with a professor of range ecology (historically, a notoriously conservative discipline). The first class after he got tenure, he spent half the class lecturing on the near impossibility of sustaining human populations at their projected densities without destroying the earth's ecosystems, and eventually the stability of our global societies.  He specifically said he had to wait for tenure to give the lecture b/c his field was so populated by GOP voting, Limbaugh loving, God made the earth for us to exploit, the gov't should subsidize my personal business while I graze my cattle on public land, screw the health of the range-land ecosystem as long as I can produce more cattle types.  It was an eye opener  for 19 year old me, who thought that factual data must at least be the predominant influence in the sciences.   
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 08, 2018, 07:07:33 PM
Global fertility is down to 2.5 births per woman and continuing to decline. In the US we crossed below replacement rate during the great recession (currently at 1.76 births per woman and still falling).

Now there is still a lot of population growth "baked in" to our future as the large young cohorts in places like Africa and the Middle East come of age, have approximately two children each, and then likely live to an old age closer to the life expectancy we see in the USA/Europe/Japan. But given that once you get below about 1.5 births per woman (what you see places like Japan and Russia) you start to have major societal problems with how smaller young generations can care and support larger old generations, in many parts of the world it would seem that we're turning down the make-more-humans rheostat close to as low as it can sustainably go. I suspect this may be why there is less discussion of birth/population control these days than there was in the 1960s/1970s.

Similarly, at this point there is enough extra CO2 in the atmosphere that -- absent a breakthrough in carbon capture or geoengineering -- there is enough climate change baked in to our future to make for frightening century or two as a civilization/species. So while I don't think there is all that much more we can do to reduce population growth (there is certainly some), I can certainly see why some folks would chose not to bring children into a world that may be quite unpleasant to live in going forward.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: middo on October 08, 2018, 07:54:45 PM
Australia is doing nothing until a change of government. Our new environment minister just said about coal "To say it has to be phased out by 2050 is drawing a long bow."

 http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-09/environment-minister-says-calls-to-end-coal-drawing-long-bow/10354604?pfmredir=sm

This is why we need ex- mining compamy lawyers in charge of the environment.

Nope, no hope coming from down under.  We are just gonna burn

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 08, 2018, 08:32:51 PM
Look, the elephant in the room is this: the warming is baked in at this point. Eat vegan all you want, stop flying... it doesn't matter. There's already enough carbon in the atmosphere that big changes will happen. And your vegan not-flying lifestyle *still* isn't sustainable - *nobody* who lives in a modern society is living a sustainable lifestyle unless you're going full freegan/living in a tree.

So we're going to have to geoengineer our way out. Period. It's time to stop talking about driving less (I ride a bike everywhere, but for the climate it's probably a waste of time) and talk about making sure we can grow crops (anti-GMO people, you are welcome to starve) and maybe putting some extra sulfates in the upper atmosphere if things get really bad. And being realistic - we need a humming economy to develop better renewable energy tech. At this point we probably need to keep burning fossil fuels to get there.

We are going to have to live with elevated CO2 levels and their consequences for a while. That means we should be planning for that, not endlessly recycling the "let's tax carbon and all drive a Prius!" and "but the scientists aren't SURE, let's do more research also Al Gore argle bargle" BS spouted by both sides of the debate.

It's almost as if both liberals and conservatives *want* civilization to collapse, both through willful ignorance.

-W

So you're banking on the gee-whiz gadget that will save us? Well, we are funding science like never before (Oh, we're not. Shit.)

I'd actually like to see the #s on what kind of lifestyle would make for a sustainable lifestyle. I've seen 2.5 tons/year, and that's not that difficult to achieve for a non-buying shit, non-flying, biking, vegan.

You're right that we'll see consequences at this point but there's no funding anymore for long-term planning and no backbone to make tough decisions.

The current one-party Congress couldn't even pass an infrastructure bill. Imagine leaders telling Phoenix that a desert city is unsustainable and it's a waste to spend billions upon billions to get it more water as Lake Mead and the Colorado dry up. Yeah, that'd go over really well.

In other words, while we'd all like to see leadership lead, it's not gonna happen. Since I doubt any of us here owns a high-flying jet and some sulfates, we're stuck with doing what we can, which is solar panels and riding bikes and not eating meat and voting. And moving if you live on the coast.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: waltworks on October 08, 2018, 08:40:30 PM
Oh, a mere multi-millionaire could do the sulfates on their own. I'd be surprised if an Elon Musk type doesn't already have everything in place. And obviously even a tiny nation-state could do it. Now, there might be terrible consequences we haven't anticipated... c'est la vie.

I'm not saying we *should* rely on gee-whiz tech to save us... I'm saying *we already made that decision*. It's our only remaining option. The ship sailed on emissions reductions at least 20 years ago and maybe more like 50.

Now we need to A) survive the changes, and B) make a plan to recover. Pushing people to go vegan and ride their bikes (I'm already onboard) is great. It's also pointless. Time to admit that.

-W
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: mspym on October 08, 2018, 08:52:51 PM
Australia is doing nothing until a change of government. Our new environment minister just said about coal "To say it has to be phased out by 2050 is drawing a long bow."

 http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-09/environment-minister-says-calls-to-end-coal-drawing-long-bow/10354604?pfmredir=sm

This is why we need ex- mining compamy lawyers in charge of the environment.

Nope, no hope coming from down under.  We are just gonna burn

And then it gets reported in the major newspapers as "Backing the miners" and not, oh, shitting all over the rest of Australia as we head into ever increasingly hot summers. And winters. And please buy a bale for the poor drought stricken farmers so they can keep on pouring methane into the atmosphere.

cool cool. This is fine.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 08, 2018, 09:08:15 PM
Now we need to A) survive the changes, and B) make a plan to recover. Pushing people to go vegan and ride their bikes (I'm already onboard) is great. It's also pointless. Time to admit that.

You, friend, are the true optimist in this thread.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: waltworks on October 08, 2018, 09:17:01 PM
You, friend, are the true optimist in this thread.

To be clear, I expect loads of deaths. My hope is that "civilization" and human knowledge can survive 1/2 of humans dying and we can be smarter going forward. We'll see.

-W
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 08, 2018, 11:00:20 PM
Oh, a mere multi-millionaire could do the sulfates on their own. I'd be surprised if an Elon Musk type doesn't already have everything in place. And obviously even a tiny nation-state could do it. Now, there might be terrible consequences we haven't anticipated... c'est la vie.

I'm not saying we *should* rely on gee-whiz tech to save us... I'm saying *we already made that decision*. It's our only remaining option. The ship sailed on emissions reductions at least 20 years ago and maybe more like 50.

Now we need to A) survive the changes, and B) make a plan to recover. Pushing people to go vegan and ride their bikes (I'm already onboard) is great. It's also pointless. Time to admit that.

-W

I studied climate change in the 90s and agree that the time for behavioural change was then, so yes, the ship may well have sailed. However, I still feel a moral obligation to reduce my impact, and to model that to my friends. I can't really do nothing?


For those seeking some optimism
, this is a good 6 minute interview with a professor of sustainability who worked on the report:

http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/australias-coal-devotion-wil-maroon-us-fiscally-peter-newman/10352284

He is very optimistic about electricity production but less happy about industry and international freight/ travel. Ie he is optimistic where individuals can really make a difference and have made a difference but pessimistic where there isn't really one authority 'in charge' e.g. international freight. That is something to ponder further. I guess at an individual level we actually can help because we can limit our consumption of goods and buy locally. Don't knock down a house and rebuild if it's useable. Don't fly. That sort of thing.

Prof Newman does also raise the issue of land clearing as very problematic. So in this case, it is worthwhile moving away from food sources that are encouraging land clearing. So beef would be a problem but I don't think it is black and white - an article about the problems of soy bean agriculture drifted across my vision today but I haven't read it yet!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: marty998 on October 09, 2018, 03:55:43 AM
You, friend, are the true optimist in this thread.

To be clear, I expect loads of deaths. My hope is that "civilization" and human knowledge can survive 1/2 of humans dying and we can be smarter going forward. We'll see.

-W

There has always been light in the darkness. Copernicus, Galileo, Newton, Einstein.... humanity always has a way of (eventually) enlightening itself.

Those who bury their heads in the ground can only deny facts for so long until the dam bursts and sands of time sweep them away. This too shall pass.

Always be optimistic about the future, even if it takes a catastrophe for the survivors to wake up to it.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Ducknald Don on October 09, 2018, 04:25:19 AM
Also, go traveling to see reefs and stuff now.

An interesting suggestion in a thread about climate change.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 09, 2018, 05:11:23 AM
Thanks @Fresh Bread for the link! A friend in enviro policy also sent me information about the Kigali amendment: https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/kigali-amendment-little-noticed-treaty-could-help-delay-climate-catastrophe
It covers HFCs and how their reduction may reduce warming by 0.5C.

This thread is otherwise kind of amusing and a micro example of why climate change is so hard to address, right? "The cause is really A! The cause is really B. Who cares about the cause, time's up anyway!" I'm pretty sure that most of the scientists working on this probably wouldn't be so bold enough to mention to their peers with such authority the "simple" reason climate change is occurring and that there is no reason to even bother, especially because there seem to be *so many* scientists and policymakers still working very hard on the issue with reason to hope.

Re: overpopulation, I'm curious how many people depressed about overpopulation actually give in time and money to access to contraception in the US and abroad rather than sighing about their peers having children in countries with flagging birth rates, anyway. I mean, there are still countries on earth where having kids is just what happens, not what you choose to happen. How many "discussions" on overpopulation actually evolve into passionate discussions on education and protection of women as a priority?

It's also surprising that people who believe that overpopulation is THE CAUSE and the road to inevitable collapse are even bothering to worry about that given that many people are already dying due to the causes of climate change. Self correcting problem, then, isn't it? Just like in other ecosystems.

The hyperfocus on what the US fed does is confusing. I know some people will say, "Well, it's our sphere of influence, many of us are Americans." Okay, cool, but actually, if the most recently federal election shows anything, most Americans opinions don't really matter on the national scale (to those not American: I'm referring to the fact that most Americans did not vote for the current administration, whatever your opinions on it). So why *not* refocus on state and local which is *actually* our sphere of influence? I hear Bacchi's point on Phoenix, but like I said, have seen strange bedfellows in Southern states commit to lasting change, so I wonder if that's based more on pessimism that actual research into the issue.

The nitpicking on different solutions is also confusing to me. Okay, so wind energy has some downsides. Well, what kind precisely? There are *many types* of wind energy. Why even suggest that a better solution has less merit because it's not the perfect solution in a problem that is so much going to be a combination of lots of small efforts across the entire globe?

I'm just saying, it kept me up a little last night chewing on why this bothered me. We're a community that thrives on microoptimizations to make huge impact and instead of talking about the actual math of climate change and how we can chip away, too, at this problem, we're literally talking about how it's too late to do anything... just like, say, every other Whiny Pants (TM) that tells us that the system is too rigged, too corrupted, to make any sort of lasting financial freedom or security for oneself.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 09, 2018, 06:46:16 AM
One of the things that depresses me is the behaviour of people on this forum.  We are supposed to be logical, and rational, and think about the future.  We maximise earnings, arrange tax efficient savings, plan our finances decades into the future.  We even somewhat limit commute times, sometimes, and some of us (not very many, it seems) even drive slightly more fuel-efficient cars.  And then some of us, possibly most of us, fly all over the fucking planet at the drop of a hat for entirely selfish reasons.   Even Pete does it.  Oh, and have kids.  More than two, in many cases.

And then there are threads like this wailing about the state of the planet.  We are all the problem.  And that problem is going to come home to all of us who haven't died of old age by about 2050.

The challenge isn't living with less, which the experience of everyone who has done it says improves their lives. It's overcoming the limiting beliefs.

Years ago I learned that flying contributes to global warming more than I thought (rule of thumb: NY-LA round trip coach is roughly a year of driving), I thought, "Flying clashes with my identity. I don't see how I can keep doing it." I considered giving myself a challenge: could I go for a year without flying?

Like anyone, I thought about family, income, and other things that depended on flying. I couldn't see how to avoid flying. Then I also looked at how many things in my life I only learned through experience that I could never have planned.

So I took on the challenge. I told myself I'd figure out how to make things work as they came up. I also thought on day 366, I'd jump on the first plane I could to catch up on what I was missing.

The opposite happened. It became one of my best life decisions. I learned more about myself and the beliefs society leads us into than I expected, coming out better in every way I measure. At the end of year 1, I easily chose to go for another year. I'm in year 3 now and expect to keep going indefinitely.

Don't get me wrong, I love traveling. I just love what I get from getting all the value from travel without polluting as much more. I've learned to create adventure, discover cuisine and culture, and the other benefits I got from travel without flying.

The same happened before, when I chose to avoid packaged food. I thought I'd lose variety, convenience, savings, etc. On the contrary, my diet is more delicious, costs less, is more convenient, connects with community more, and is better by every measure I care about. Maybe the biggest is that I eat to full, even stuffed, every meal, yet still have six pack abs.

With minimal effort, my last load of garbage took me 16 months to accumulate for my whole apartment. Less garbage creates more freedom, especially mental freedom.

My results are so contrary to mainstream social beliefs that they compelled me to create a podcast, Leadership and the Environment (http://joshuaspodek.com/podcast), to help get people from the treadmill.

I read an analysis of Germans that they could reduce their energy use by 75% without changing their lifestyles. That means Americans can probably reduce ours by 85% or more, likely improving our lives since all that waste weighs us down.

Here are pictures from last week (https://www.flickr.com/gp/fahertybrand/1H3090), when a company invited me to prepare my famous no-packaging vegetable stew for 50 people (they got alcohol sponsorship and brought bread, butter, and avocados without telling me, which I would have tried to prevent had I known). You can see it's mostly fresh farmers market vegetables and fruit, served with lentils and beans. Total food costs were under $3 per person, with about 40% left over for future meals.

That's sustainable life as I've found it: full of friends, delicious food, spending less, convenient, community, and so on. Seeing the rest of the country on antidepressants, 75% overweight and obese, shooting up schools, and so on tells me this way is better.

The challenge isn't living with less, which the experience of everyone who has done it says improves their lives. It's overcoming the limiting beliefs keeping us fat, dumb, and unhappy.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 09, 2018, 07:06:28 AM
Look, the elephant in the room is this: the warming is baked in at this point. Eat vegan all you want, stop flying... it doesn't matter. There's already enough carbon in the atmosphere that big changes will happen. And your vegan not-flying lifestyle *still* isn't sustainable - *nobody* who lives in a modern society is living a sustainable lifestyle unless you're going full freegan/living in a tree.

So we're going to have to geoengineer our way out. Period. It's time to stop talking about driving less (I ride a bike everywhere, but for the climate it's probably a waste of time) and talk about making sure we can grow crops (anti-GMO people, you are welcome to starve) and maybe putting some extra sulfates in the upper atmosphere if things get really bad. And being realistic - we need a humming economy to develop better renewable energy tech. At this point we probably need to keep burning fossil fuels to get there.

We are going to have to live with elevated CO2 levels and their consequences for a while. That means we should be planning for that, not endlessly recycling the "let's tax carbon and all drive a Prius!" and "but the scientists aren't SURE, let's do more research also Al Gore argle bargle" BS spouted by both sides of the debate.

It's almost as if both liberals and conservatives *want* civilization to collapse, both through willful ignorance.

-W

I agree with you that acting is more productive than talking without acting. My post above this one shows that I've found that reducing my impact improves my life, leading me to look for bigger changes, since I expect them to improve my life more.

Regarding, "Eat vegan all you want, stop flying... it doesn't matter." I disagree that it doesn't matter. The population dropping to 6 billion is different than the population dropping to 1 billion. The population dropping over the course of a few decades is different than the population dropping over the course of a few years. More relevant to my life: living less wastefully improves my life. I expect to do it more.

Regarding, "And your vegan not-flying lifestyle *still* isn't sustainable - *nobody* who lives in a modern society is living a sustainable lifestyle unless you're going full freegan/living in a tree," that's why we iterate. The Wright Brothers couldn't have foreseen 787s, but that didn't stop them. There are a lot more sustainability gains to be had. Americans have barely started the low hanging fruit.

Regarding, "So we're going to have to geoengineer our way out," technology rarely solves social problems. Behavioral change is the domain of leadership, which is based in social and emotional skills. I see the biggest challenges to living more sustainably as the beliefs "If I act but no one else does then what I do doesn't matter" and "Little changes are too small to matter and big changes are too hard to do," which keep people from acting.

I find those beliefs change after people act and find their lives improve from the action, as evidenced by the second conversation with nearly every guest on my podcast (http://joshuaspodek.com/podcast), who say "That change was easier than I expected, I wish I'd done it earlier" or "That change was hard, but the kind of hard I value. Thank you for prompting me."

I'm not sure why you frame preparing for a warmed globe as exclusive to polluting less and regulating behavior that imposes costs on others (while reducing income taxes, presumably). It seems a false and unnecessary dichotomy.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 09, 2018, 07:07:31 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Hirondelle on October 09, 2018, 07:10:18 AM
I'm somewhat surprised and disheartened by the pessimism in this thread. Yes, we're currently on track to make the earth 3-4 degrees Celcius warmer than it used to be (depending on how happily we continue/increase emissions), we already reached the first degree and the current IPCC Climate Report talks about aiming to limit it to 1.5-2 degrees. Sure, maybe we'll be fucked at that point anyways as the tipping point for melting poles might've been reached, but no one knows.

I'd say we're in a situation of clown house, two car loans and some big ass consumer debt while having barely the income to pay the monthly minimums. Does that mean we have to give up now and keep going the way we do, happily taking an extra flight to see the reefs before they're bleached and dead and the Maldives before they're flooded?

No, we should move our asses to get as close to that 1.5 degree maximum as fast as we can. In the West we're the biggest 'spenders' environmental-wise, so we can make the biggest cuts compared to the people that may reproduce themselves more but barely affect the environment in Africa (note: most countries have already greatly reduced their fertility rate once child deaths reduced, check out Hans Rosling's TED talks on this topic).

It's not that impossible to stay within the "1 earth-footprint" limit. Actually, if I hadn't made an international flight this year I would've scored a perfect 1 earth according to the calculator I last used (through "the hidden impact"). Now I'm at 2.2, which is pretty horrible but still a ton better than average for my country (3.6 for The Netherlands, 1.5 globally, USA average is probably higher).

So what can we (I) do?
- I'm not as committed as M41, but my diet got pretty close to vegan. I occasionally consume some animal products when offered to be, but stopped buying any myself. Also sign up as a vegetarian for any event I go to as that will reduce the amount of animal products they buy for buffets and such.
- If vegan is too much of a commitment, consider giving up red meats (they're not good for you either) and cheese. These are the worst animal products environment-wise.
- Buy less stuff, especially electronics and try to buy mostly second hand.
- Reduce/eliminate flying and driving.
- Not only kids ask a lot from the environment, so do pets! All the cats & dogs in the USA eat as much meat as the whole nation of France. Yes, pets are basically consumer goods too and bred for us.
- Reduce and/or eliminate 'useless' foods; e.g. sodas or candies. They're bad for health, wallet and the environment as they have to be produced in factories, transported and land is used for the sugar production.
- As mustachians we have a lot of money and money = power. I've made 3 changes in this field that are applicable to my country, but not sure what alternatives are available for other countries.
1. I've moved my checking and savings bank accounts to the most sustainable bank in my country that does not invest money in fossil fuels or weapons. The impact increases with the amount of money in the account and it's a 100% painless change. Interest rate on my savings is the same as with major banks. 2. Then that there's an investment option where I invest in solar panels that others rent (e.g. people who don't have the money to pay for solar panels at once). Returns are about 6% plus it enables people that otherwise wouldn't be able to join the energy transition (yet). Probably performs less than the stock market, but it will most likely outperform bonds and is a relatively low-risk investment. For Dutch people: duurzaaminvesteren.nl is the website.
3. Consider more sustainable index funds instead of the standard ones. This is a tough one as it's easy to consider everything not sustainable enough, but I've found one that I liked (TSWE) that is still pretty broad and has only excluded a few categories. Not perfect, but hopefully still better than the default.

Then of course there's all the obvious things re not wasting stuff and water, voting as green as you can tolerate and donating to effective charities that help the environment.

If we're not going to care 'because we're gonna be fucked anyways', why would our governments? Why would the people in Africa that should stop reproducing according to us as 5 less kids for them means 1 more person living a western lifestyle for us? If we're hoping for revolutionary technology it's like a poor person waiting for an inheritance from that one aunt that turns out to live till 105.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Barbaebigode on October 09, 2018, 07:33:19 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Ok, how do we get to 1b people in time to avoid the worst effects of climate change?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 09, 2018, 07:57:28 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Ok, how do we get to 1b people in time to avoid the worst effects of climate change?

Did I mention the horse is out of the barn?  Oh yeah, I did.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Davnasty on October 09, 2018, 08:08:42 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Here's the disconnect, you're arguing we have too many people based on the American "standard of living". I assume based on this that you don't believe the assertions made by JoshuaSpodek above?

And even if you don't, that's circular logic. We argue residents of the developed world should use less resources. You say we have too many people because we can't support that many using the resources that the average American uses. But again, the average American is using WAY too much.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Davnasty on October 09, 2018, 08:14:36 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Ok, how do we get to 1b people in time to avoid the worst effects of climate change?

Did I mention the horse is out of the barn?  Oh yeah, I did.

So when you say no one wants to talk about the real issue of overpopulation, what do you mean? It seems like a number of people have tried to engage on the topic but you don't actually want to talk about it.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 09, 2018, 08:17:34 AM
My optimistic reaction is that I'll likely be dead/senile before the worst comes to pass, so at least it won't be my mess to clean up.  Sometimes I feel pessimistic though . . .   


:(


I personally have tried (and will continue to try) to limit my impact on the environment.  I don't fly for pleasure, don't drive much, have reduced the amount of meat I eat, try to source local foods when possible, recycle, compost, don't buy new stuff unless it's replacing old stuff, try to get things used rather than new.  I have a kid, but one is certainly enough.  I vote for people who seem to have long term plans to minimize the problem (or in lieu of that . . . at least  people who acknowledge that a problem exists).

That's about all I think I can do.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 09, 2018, 08:44:07 AM
A good carbon calculator is helpful here.

JoshuaSpodek and Hirondelle are correct. It's not that difficult to get to a "sustainable" lifestyle, at least from the numbers I've seen. You can still have indoor plumbing but won't be living in 2400 square feet. Your driving miles will be very low and in an electric car powered by renewables. You won't be getting a new phone every other year. Etc. But you'll still be living in the 21st century.


Re: overpopulation. As others have noted, the problem isn't too many kids in Africa. Sure, they'll destroy the local ecosystem but their overall carbon footprint is insignificant. It's the developed world, and especially the US and Australia and (eventually) China, that's causing this.

When people talk about overpopulation, it's a recognition that 7B of us can't live like westerners do. Not ALL 7B of us can drive Teslas and have 4 bedrooms for 3 people because "play room." So what Johnez wrote earlier is applicable -- we need a sustainable world for the developing world to see and grow into. China and India's aspirations shouldn't be that everyone has a car, let alone an ICE car, but it is.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 09, 2018, 09:22:05 AM
@bacchi Destroying local ecosystems contributes to climate change and absolute population growth is still a problem. I don't think climate change is being viewed as an issue only solved with reduction of direct emissions. Regardless, I do agree that coming to a more sustainable lifestyle is key for everyone in the world.

I found the article (https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/26/16356524/the-population-question) written on why a prominent environmentalist refuses to talk about overpopulation, it's a good read. 

Also, I believe China is already the largest emitter of carbon, but I think just recently committed to drastically reducing coal (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2018/07/09/china-is-swallowing-a-bitter-pill-and-trying-to-cut-its-coal-use/#7c60e8305e4f) in favor of clean energy out of necessity.

@Hirondelle I appreciate your post a lot. Can you show me the calculator you're using for the 1 earth stuff?
Also, re: money is power, yesterday when I was chatting with her about this issue, a friend of mine mentioned yesterday that carbon off-setting (https://thepointsguy.com/2018/01/the-basics-of-offsetting-the-carbon-emissions-from-your-flights/) is a way to use the power of money to make travel friendlier for the earth. It's an imperfect solution, but it's something!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Hirondelle on October 09, 2018, 09:36:01 AM
@Meowkins, yes carbon off-setting is a good one too! I've done that for my last flights. There's a thread about it in the Thrown down the Gaunlet section of the forums.

The calculator I've used is a Dutch one I found on https://babetteporcelijn.com/en/ but it seems to be only available in Dutch and French. There's several others if you just google "Carbon footprint calculator" on Google though - not sure which one is best! The WWF one is a bit more elaborate than the one I used.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: norabird on October 09, 2018, 09:39:12 AM
Thanks for starting the thread @Meowkins and those who commented with what they're doing. To blame overpopulation is absurd--it's about the carbon used by the developed world! I switched finally to renewables for my home energy provider but I fly a lot :( This is reminding me to do more offsets, to eat less meat and dairy, and also to finally switch my banking to Amalgamated, for whatever it's worth.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 09, 2018, 10:07:36 AM
@bacchi Destroying local ecosystems contributes to climate change and absolute population growth is still a problem. I don't think climate change is being viewed as an issue only solved with reduction of direct emissions. Regardless, I do agree that coming to a more sustainable lifestyle is key for everyone in the world.

I found the article (https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/26/16356524/the-population-question) written on why a prominent environmentalist refuses to talk about overpopulation, it's a good read. 

Sure, it's still a problem but telling a hut-living, no electricity, villager that their burning wood for heat and cooking needs to be curtailed while we take videos of them with our phones and gopros and then upload the pics to a cloud data server is pretty ironic. "Hey, save the elephants because they're cool. Thanks. I have a plane to catch."

It's a good article but it supports what EricL is writing about on the other thread (about fear of discussing certain topics because of ostracism).

Anyway,

Quote from: vox
If your concern is the creation of new consumers and emitters, your gaze should be drawn to those who will consume and emit the most, i.e., the wealthy.

Agreed. If the developed world merely limits CO2 to a sustainable level as is, it does nothing for the massive poor in India.

"Sorry, we've met the global CO2 level this year. There's not even enough to make a solar panel for you but you're on the list."

We (that is, the wealthy) have to emit at a sustainable level so that, when a Chinese village gets electricity, it can be done without burning coal and adding more CO2. It's a simple fact that, as the worldwide population grows, that sustainable level per capita shrinks. It's also a fact that one America emits as much as 1.5 Danes or 3 Swedes or 10 Kenyans.

Quote
Also, I believe China is already the largest emitter of carbon, but I think just recently committed to drastically reducing coal (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2018/07/09/china-is-swallowing-a-bitter-pill-and-trying-to-cut-its-coal-use/#7c60e8305e4f) in favor of clean energy out of necessity.

China is the largest emitter of carbon but not per capita. That's a tie between the US and Australia.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 09, 2018, 10:11:46 AM
I'm not sure cutting back on animal products will help.  What will help is the way animals are raised - stop CAFO (concentrated animal feeding operations, i.e. feedlots).  And the way crops are raised.  Right now field crops (think corn, wheat, soybeans) are basically mining the soil.  There are areas where 6-10" of topsoil have been lost, and that topsoil was full of carbon.  Plowing puts air deeper in the soil and increases oxidation, which releases carbon and methane into the air.  Intensive field crops also destroy masses of wildlife, and the trend to bigger fields has intensified that loss.  Bigger fields also mean more use of insecticides, since beneficial insects (i.e insects that eat insect pests) lose habitat.

A shift to intensive grazing grass-fed beef (mob grazing, which actually increases soil carbon) and pastured pigs and poultry, less mono-culture of annuals and more poly-culture of perennials, would all go a long way to diminish the effects of contemporary agriculture.  Mob grazing mimics what happened with the bison, and happens with the big herds in Africa - plant material gets trampled into the ground and becomes humus, which is sequestered carbon.  Good rotational grazing also messes up parasite life cycles, which means a lot less de-worming (and a lot of livestock parasites have developed immunity to a lot of de-wormers).  Grain-fed cattle also have a more acidic rumen, produce more methane, and the combination of that with antibiotics in feed leads to E. coli from them that are more dangerous for us, since the newer E. coli strains are acid resistant (our stomach acidity protects us from a lot of pathogens).

This may make food more expensive, but food prices are abnormally low (especially in the US).  Basically the push for low food prices has driven farmers to exploit their resources instead of husbanding them. 

Re sustainable energy, the elephant in the room is concrete, which needs cement.  Cement production is a huge CO2 emitter.


ZPG was big in the 60's and 70's and then died.  It is not just how many children we have, it is the generation time.  You are all capable of doing the math.  Population growth in Ecology is usually done using females only, and so we look at how many daughters one female will produce.  If one woman has one son and one daughter, we look at her daughter - a generation time of 20 years means a lot more people down the road than a generation time of 30 years.  Which is why I have one child (turned out to be a daughter) and I had her late.  My family's generation time is >30 years.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 09, 2018, 10:38:32 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Here's the disconnect, you're arguing we have too many people based on the American "standard of living". I assume based on this that you don't believe the assertions made by JoshuaSpodek above?

And even if you don't, that's circular logic. We argue residents of the developed world should use less resources. You say we have too many people because we can't support that many using the resources that the average American uses. But again, the average American is using WAY too much.

If the world used resources at the rate of an average American, the world would have no resources in 18 months.  This has nothing to do with the average American resource use.  This has to do with too many people.  We would have to live at a level that most people in America would find unacceptable at the current level of population.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 09, 2018, 10:41:06 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Ok, how do we get to 1b people in time to avoid the worst effects of climate change?

Did I mention the horse is out of the barn?  Oh yeah, I did.

So when you say no one wants to talk about the real issue of overpopulation, what do you mean? It seems like a number of people have tried to engage on the topic but you don't actually want to talk about it.

When I say "No one" I'm referring to the world leaders.  Of course there are people that want to discuss it.  But, 99% of all threads on the internet are discussing Climate Change, which, if attributable to mankind, is a result of overpopulation.  Climate Change is a symptom of overpopulation (which is the root cause).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 09, 2018, 10:43:05 AM
I'm not sure cutting back on animal products will help.  What will help is the way animals are raised - stop CAFO (concentrated animal feeding operations, i.e. feedlots).  And the way crops are raised.  Right now field crops (think corn, wheat, soybeans) are basically mining the soil.  There are areas where 6-10" of topsoil have been lost, and that topsoil was full of carbon.  Plowing puts air deeper in the soil and increases oxidation, which releases carbon and methane into the air.  Intensive field crops also destroy masses of wildlife, and the trend to bigger fields has intensified that loss.  Bigger fields also mean more use of insecticides, since beneficial insects (i.e insects that eat insect pests) lose habitat.

A shift to intensive grazing grass-fed beef (mob grazing, which actually increases soil carbon) and pastured pigs and poultry, less mono-culture of annuals and more poly-culture of perennials, would all go a long way to diminish the effects of contemporary agriculture.  Mob grazing mimics what happened with the bison, and happens with the big herds in Africa - plant material gets trampled into the ground and becomes humus, which is sequestered carbon.  Good rotational grazing also messes up parasite life cycles, which means a lot less de-worming (and a lot of livestock parasites have developed immunity to a lot of de-wormers).  Grain-fed cattle also have a more acidic rumen, produce more methane, and the combination of that with antibiotics in feed leads to E. coli from them that are more dangerous for us, since the newer E. coli strains are acid resistant (our stomach acidity protects us from a lot of pathogens).

This may make food more expensive, but food prices are abnormally low (especially in the US).  Basically the push for low food prices has driven farmers to exploit their resources instead of husbanding them. 

So much this. I've seen any number of posts and blogs about people who were vegetarians but began working in sustainable farms, or started a homestead, or whatever, and realized that they couldn't do it and still be vegetarians/vegans. "There's a reason our image of a farm is a polyculture with many different animals." (I believe that was Sharon Astyk? A farmer and eco-advocate, among other things.) Animals do a lot around the farm that has now been replaced with fertilizers, insecticides, and gas-powered equipment. Oil is the only reason we can have monoculture farming.

I don't actually want to discourage anyone from becoming vegan. Do it, it's not going to hurt anything. If nothing else, I think many people could easily reduce their intake of meat. I don't think meat is unhealthy at all--but we raise unhealthy animals and, surprise! they're not super healthy for us to eat. Having a cow that's sick and half-dead when it gets to slaughter because it's been force fed grains rather than grass...it should be obvious that that's not the ticket to good health. So eat less, support better practices and farms/farmers when you do buy meat, eggs, and dairy.

A lot of people focus on meat as being the horrible part of agriculture because it's easy. But giant fields of nothing but corn and soy are terrible for the environment too. Monocultures in general are awful. I've done a lot of reading and research into farming practices and the issues surrounding farms. It's not an issue of meat vs. grains, it's that the entire system is so ridiculously stupid from start to finish. No, GMOs won't save us all from starvation. They have massive problems of their own, like built in genes so that you can't save seeds from them. In a world of climate change, when you can't rely on global systems anymore, how do you expect to get seeds?

Start gardening. Grow what food you can, because if nothing else those skills are going to be in high demand in a future world where people are starving to death.

And maybe don't eat fish, since not only is much of it laden with mercury but our oceans are, if possible, more fucked over than the land, and they're just as crucial to human survival. Plus, something like 40% of the plastic in the oceans is related to fishing. If you care about ocean cleanup, don't eat fish.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 09, 2018, 10:43:32 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Here's the disconnect, you're arguing we have too many people based on the American "standard of living". I assume based on this that you don't believe the assertions made by JoshuaSpodek above?

And even if you don't, that's circular logic. We argue residents of the developed world should use less resources. You say we have too many people because we can't support that many using the resources that the average American uses. But again, the average American is using WAY too much.

If the world used resources at the rate of an average American, the world would have no resources in 18 months.  This has nothing to do with the average American resource use.  This has to do with too many people.  We would have to live at a level that most people in America would find unacceptable at the current level of population.

There are different ways to look at the data.

If people want to be as wasteful as they currently are in the US, then yes.  We will need to start executing people to survive.

If people want to conserve much more than they currently are, then yes.  We can survive just fine with what currently exists.

The best solution for the most people probably lies somewhere in the middle.

To say that the problem only has to do with too many people and has nothing to do with resource use is objectively wrong though.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on October 09, 2018, 10:44:06 AM
China is the largest emitter of carbon but not per capita. That's a tie between the US and Australia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita - not quite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions the whole EU produces 2/3 that of America. Getting the US, Canada, and Australia to EU levels per person would be wonderful...
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 09, 2018, 10:49:31 AM
China is the largest emitter of carbon but not per capita. That's a tie between the US and Australia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita - not quite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions the whole EU produces 2/3 that of America. Getting the US, Canada, and Australia to EU levels per person would be wonderful...

My mistake. There are other countries that are much worse per capita than the US and AU.

Re: the EU, having sensible mass transit and housing size helps a lot. Plus having a government care more about the people instead of corporations.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 09, 2018, 10:59:27 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Here's the disconnect, you're arguing we have too many people based on the American "standard of living". I assume based on this that you don't believe the assertions made by JoshuaSpodek above?

And even if you don't, that's circular logic. We argue residents of the developed world should use less resources. You say we have too many people because we can't support that many using the resources that the average American uses. But again, the average American is using WAY too much.

If the world used resources at the rate of an average American, the world would have no resources in 18 months.  This has nothing to do with the average American resource use.  This has to do with too many people.  We would have to live at a level that most people in America would find unacceptable at the current level of population.

There are different ways to look at the data.

If people want to be as wasteful as they currently are in the US, then yes.  We will need to start executing people to survive.

If people want to conserve much more than they currently are, then yes.  We can survive just fine with what currently exists.

The best solution for the most people probably lies somewhere in the middle.

To say that the problem only has to do with too many people and has nothing to do with resource use is objectively wrong though.

I guess I wasn't clear.  What I'm saying is that you can address and implement conservation but it still isn't enough to pull us back from the ledge.  The article mentioned above about "Why I never talk about population" has some good ideas on how to at least start a discussion.

https://vasweb.com/Philippines%202010/Introducton.htm

This is the type of things where investment is needed.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 09, 2018, 11:32:15 AM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Here's the disconnect, you're arguing we have too many people based on the American "standard of living". I assume based on this that you don't believe the assertions made by JoshuaSpodek above?

And even if you don't, that's circular logic. We argue residents of the developed world should use less resources. You say we have too many people because we can't support that many using the resources that the average American uses. But again, the average American is using WAY too much.

If the world used resources at the rate of an average American, the world would have no resources in 18 months.  This has nothing to do with the average American resource use.  This has to do with too many people.  We would have to live at a level that most people in America would find unacceptable at the current level of population.

There are different ways to look at the data.

If people want to be as wasteful as they currently are in the US, then yes.  We will need to start executing people to survive.

If people want to conserve much more than they currently are, then yes.  We can survive just fine with what currently exists.

The best solution for the most people probably lies somewhere in the middle.

To say that the problem only has to do with too many people and has nothing to do with resource use is objectively wrong though.

I guess I wasn't clear.  What I'm saying is that you can address and implement conservation but it still isn't enough to pull us back from the ledge.  The article mentioned above about "Why I never talk about population" has some good ideas on how to at least start a discussion.

https://vasweb.com/Philippines%202010/Introducton.htm

This is the type of things where investment is needed.

I agree that the type and amount of conservation required isn't very popular.  I don't believe that voluntary birth control will ever achieve numbers high enough to fix the problem either though.  If we're talking involuntary conservation vs involuntary birth control, I think the former is going to be an easier (although not popular) sell.  The beauty of climate change though, is that it's slow.  This gives us time to refuse to take action until it's far too late regardless of your preferred fix.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 09, 2018, 12:50:30 PM
@Cache_Stash What do you mean when you say "it's not enough to pull us back from the ledge"? You mean to a sustainable world population in general or specifically re: climate emissions?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on October 09, 2018, 01:29:16 PM
China is the largest emitter of carbon but not per capita. That's a tie between the US and Australia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita - not quite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions the whole EU produces 2/3 that of America. Getting the US, Canada, and Australia to EU levels per person would be wonderful...

My mistake. There are other countries that are much worse per capita than the US and AU.

Re: the EU, having sensible mass transit and housing size helps a lot. Plus having a government care more about the people instead of corporations.

Yup, at this point - after living in Canada for 8 years - I fucking LOVE the EU. I mean - it isn't perfect, far far far from it. I'm not in favour of a Federated States of Europe (and I'm immensely sad the UK is pulling out, partly because they - we - provided a solid counter to that). But generally speaking? Oh man. A balance of modernity, culture, and at least some credible motion towards sustainability. The world is so much better off moving towards an EU model than a US one...
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 09, 2018, 01:37:41 PM
@Cache_Stash What do you mean when you say "it's not enough to pull us back from the ledge"? You mean to a sustainable world population in general or specifically re: climate emissions?
If you truly feel that the earth is warming at the rate the IPCC says it is (although all of the models have thus far been wrong), then yes, it's too late.  If you are talking about general resources of the world, then yes it is too late.  Unless we have a pandemic or some other disastrous population event, our environment cannot sustain the number of people we have in the world.  A small number of people trying their best isn't going to be good enough.  And when I'm saying "small" I'm saying like maybe 350 Million people like the size of the US. 

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: MasterStache on October 09, 2018, 02:01:06 PM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Here's the disconnect, you're arguing we have too many people based on the American "standard of living". I assume based on this that you don't believe the assertions made by JoshuaSpodek above?

And even if you don't, that's circular logic. We argue residents of the developed world should use less resources. You say we have too many people because we can't support that many using the resources that the average American uses. But again, the average American is using WAY too much.

^This

The issue isn't overpopulation, but consumption habits. By changing our consumption habits one could reasonably argue we are not overpopulated. But at our current 1st world consumption rates, we are. You can't just kill off billions of people. But we can work on changing our consumption habits. Perhaps the reason why it isn't discussed as much as you would like is because the only reasonable humane solution is what is always discussed, consumption habits.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 09, 2018, 02:04:37 PM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Here's the disconnect, you're arguing we have too many people based on the American "standard of living". I assume based on this that you don't believe the assertions made by JoshuaSpodek above?

And even if you don't, that's circular logic. We argue residents of the developed world should use less resources. You say we have too many people because we can't support that many using the resources that the average American uses. But again, the average American is using WAY too much.

^This

The issue isn't overpopulation, but consumption habits. By changing our consumption habits one could reasonably argue we are not overpopulated. But at our current 1st world consumption rates, we are. You can't just kill off billions of people. But we can work on changing our consumption habits. Perhaps the reason why it isn't discussed as much as you would like is because the only reasonable humane solution is what is always discussed, consumption habits.

And if you read my follow up to the post above by Dabnasty, I noted that consumption habits isn't enough.  We already have too many people.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Hirondelle on October 09, 2018, 02:08:39 PM
I'm not sure cutting back on animal products will help.  What will help is the way animals are raised - stop CAFO (concentrated animal feeding operations, i.e. feedlots).  And the way crops are raised.  Right now field crops (think corn, wheat, soybeans) are basically mining the soil.  There are areas where 6-10" of topsoil have been lost, and that topsoil was full of carbon.  Plowing puts air deeper in the soil and increases oxidation, which releases carbon and methane into the air.  Intensive field crops also destroy masses of wildlife, and the trend to bigger fields has intensified that loss.  Bigger fields also mean more use of insecticides, since beneficial insects (i.e insects that eat insect pests) lose habitat.

A shift to intensive grazing grass-fed beef (mob grazing, which actually increases soil carbon) and pastured pigs and poultry, less mono-culture of annuals and more poly-culture of perennials, would all go a long way to diminish the effects of contemporary agriculture.  Mob grazing mimics what happened with the bison, and happens with the big herds in Africa - plant material gets trampled into the ground and becomes humus, which is sequestered carbon.  Good rotational grazing also messes up parasite life cycles, which means a lot less de-worming (and a lot of livestock parasites have developed immunity to a lot of de-wormers).  Grain-fed cattle also have a more acidic rumen, produce more methane, and the combination of that with antibiotics in feed leads to E. coli from them that are more dangerous for us, since the newer E. coli strains are acid resistant (our stomach acidity protects us from a lot of pathogens).

This may make food more expensive, but food prices are abnormally low (especially in the US).  Basically the push for low food prices has driven farmers to exploit their resources instead of husbanding them. 

So much this. I've seen any number of posts and blogs about people who were vegetarians but began working in sustainable farms, or started a homestead, or whatever, and realized that they couldn't do it and still be vegetarians/vegans. "There's a reason our image of a farm is a polyculture with many different animals." (I believe that was Sharon Astyk? A farmer and eco-advocate, among other things.) Animals do a lot around the farm that has now been replaced with fertilizers, insecticides, and gas-powered equipment. Oil is the only reason we can have monoculture farming.

I don't actually want to discourage anyone from becoming vegan. Do it, it's not going to hurt anything. If nothing else, I think many people could easily reduce their intake of meat. I don't think meat is unhealthy at all--but we raise unhealthy animals and, surprise! they're not super healthy for us to eat. Having a cow that's sick and half-dead when it gets to slaughter because it's been force fed grains rather than grass...it should be obvious that that's not the ticket to good health. So eat less, support better practices and farms/farmers when you do buy meat, eggs, and dairy.

A lot of people focus on meat as being the horrible part of agriculture because it's easy. But giant fields of nothing but corn and soy are terrible for the environment too. Monocultures in general are awful. I've done a lot of reading and research into farming practices and the issues surrounding farms. It's not an issue of meat vs. grains, it's that the entire system is so ridiculously stupid from start to finish. No, GMOs won't save us all from starvation. They have massive problems of their own, like built in genes so that you can't save seeds from them. In a world of climate change, when you can't rely on global systems anymore, how do you expect to get seeds?

Start gardening. Grow what food you can, because if nothing else those skills are going to be in high demand in a future world where people are starving to death.

And maybe don't eat fish, since not only is much of it laden with mercury but our oceans are, if possible, more fucked over than the land, and they're just as crucial to human survival. Plus, something like 40% of the plastic in the oceans is related to fishing. If you care about ocean cleanup, don't eat fish.

Ermm. Gonna disagree massively here. Bat calling @Malaysia41 as she'll for sure have more and better argumentation than me and a more extensive collection of scientific information to back it up. But let me start with some basics:

First, I agree with you that the whole world going vegan is not going to work. Or actually it probably would, but I do agree that there's lots of land areas that aren't suitable to grow crops while they're perfectly fine for grazing and such. I also agree that monocultures aren't great and that a mix of different crops and a handful of animals might work best. But that's pretty far from what we're at now, so lets have a look at some data.

The crops you guys are mentioning (corn and soy) are mostly produced for animal food. 70% of all soy produced in the USA is used for animal feed (https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/coexistence-soybeans-factsheet.pdf). For corn, this percentage is at 36% (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/time-to-rethink-corn/). Apparently, worldwide, 55% of crops are used for human consumption and a whopping 36% as animal feed (https://www.vox.com/2014/8/21/6053187/cropland-map-food-fuel-animal-feed). Now, using that logic one might realize that the current numbers of farm animals are not sustainable as they apparently take up 36% of calories from all the foods we are growing (in monocultures)! Wouldn't it be way easier and result in way more variety in crops if we heavily reduce our animal consumption to levels where we don't need such an insane amount of crops just to feed our animals and have a meager 12%-3% (chicken vs beef) of the original calories left? I'm not sure what level of animal protein consumption would be sustainable, but for now the easiest for me seems to cut out all/most beef/pork/cheese as they are the worst environmental wise (and seemingly also health wise).

Regarding health; it's generally accepted that processed meat consumption (mostly red meat) is one of the main risk factors for colon cancer (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2991099/). After lung cancer and smoking, it is the strongest association found in cancer research (I don't have a source readily available for this number, but it was in a uni lecture I've had and it just stuck with me as I'd been taught meat was part of a healthy diet my whole life. A stronger risk factor might've been found by now, but the fact that it was a strong one is still standing).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 09, 2018, 02:54:36 PM
@Cache_Stash What do you mean when you say "it's not enough to pull us back from the ledge"? You mean to a sustainable world population in general or specifically re: climate emissions?
If you truly feel that the earth is warming at the rate the IPCC says it is (although all of the models have thus far been wrong), then yes, it's too late.  If you are talking about general resources of the world, then yes it is too late. 

Thanks for clarification. What are you basing those opinions on?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 09, 2018, 02:58:25 PM
@Hirondelle Health really isn't much of a concern to me atm so no comment there, but different ways of using herd animals have been cited in the books that I've read as a great way to restore soil for carbon capture, as @RetiredAt63 mentioned. I don't think this has to be a vegan/vegetarian vs. non-vegan/vegetarian discussion, because lower meat and dariy consumption period is still a great environmental step.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: MasterStache on October 09, 2018, 03:07:02 PM
https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-and-sustainability/

Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.  The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere would be self correcting with a properly sized population. 

My point about no one wants to talk about the population problem:  We're so engaged with the climate conversation there is no room  for conversation on the larger problem which created our contribution to a negative climate change (the size of the world's population).  We're already have about 6 Billion too many people.

Conservation would allow more people, but the standard of living will be much, much lower than that currently enjoyed by the typical American. 

Given the amount of world travel and its growth, I think the problem may self correct with a pandemic that reduces the size of the population without our help.   Every population of every species on the earth goes through periods where the population naturally crashes due to imbalances.  A great deal of the crashes are due to disease.   I think the earth will take care of the problem all by itself.  In my estimation, it is probably the only way to correct our negative impact on the environment.   The horse is out of the barn.

Here's the disconnect, you're arguing we have too many people based on the American "standard of living". I assume based on this that you don't believe the assertions made by JoshuaSpodek above?

And even if you don't, that's circular logic. We argue residents of the developed world should use less resources. You say we have too many people because we can't support that many using the resources that the average American uses. But again, the average American is using WAY too much.

^This

The issue isn't overpopulation, but consumption habits. By changing our consumption habits one could reasonably argue we are not overpopulated. But at our current 1st world consumption rates, we are. You can't just kill off billions of people. But we can work on changing our consumption habits. Perhaps the reason why it isn't discussed as much as you would like is because the only reasonable humane solution is what is always discussed, consumption habits.

And if you read my follow up to the post above by Dabnasty, I noted that consumption habits isn't enough.  We already have too many people.

I did read your post. Perhaps you should read my again, specifically the bolded part.

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20160311-how-many-people-can-our-planet-really-support
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 09, 2018, 03:40:35 PM
@Cache_Stash

Both your links pasted above state that the appropriate measures to deal with climate change are a combination of reducing fertility rates (by empowering women) and by curbing emissions.

There are many organisations working to lift women out of poverty in the developing world and enable them to limit their family size. I hear that in the US there are issues around access to birth control but groups are working on that.

So... Population and birth rates are very much being considered and are definitely being worked on in a humane way.

Slaughtering 6 out of 7 people or allowing them to succumb to disease. I don't see that as a workable solution, mate.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 09, 2018, 05:33:19 PM
Ermm. Gonna disagree massively here. Bat calling @Malaysia41 as she'll for sure have more and better argumentation than me and a more extensive collection of scientific information to back it up. But let me start with some basics:

First, I agree with you that the whole world going vegan is not going to work. Or actually it probably would, but I do agree that there's lots of land areas that aren't suitable to grow crops while they're perfectly fine for grazing and such. I also agree that monocultures aren't great and that a mix of different crops and a handful of animals might work best. But that's pretty far from what we're at now, so lets have a look at some data.

The crops you guys are mentioning (corn and soy) are mostly produced for animal food. 70% of all soy produced in the USA is used for animal feed (https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/coexistence-soybeans-factsheet.pdf). For corn, this percentage is at 36% (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/time-to-rethink-corn/). Apparently, worldwide, 55% of crops are used for human consumption and a whopping 36% as animal feed (https://www.vox.com/2014/8/21/6053187/cropland-map-food-fuel-animal-feed). Now, using that logic one might realize that the current numbers of farm animals are not sustainable as they apparently take up 36% of calories from all the foods we are growing (in monocultures)! Wouldn't it be way easier and result in way more variety in crops if we heavily reduce our animal consumption to levels where we don't need such an insane amount of crops just to feed our animals and have a meager 12%-3% (chicken vs beef) of the original calories left? I'm not sure what level of animal protein consumption would be sustainable, but for now the easiest for me seems to cut out all/most beef/pork/cheese as they are the worst environmental wise (and seemingly also health wise).

Regarding health; it's generally accepted that processed meat consumption (mostly red meat) is one of the main risk factors for colon cancer (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2991099/). After lung cancer and smoking, it is the strongest association found in cancer research (I don't have a source readily available for this number, but it was in a uni lecture I've had and it just stuck with me as I'd been taught meat was part of a healthy diet my whole life. A stronger risk factor might've been found by now, but the fact that it was a strong one is still standing).

You're still arguing this as if it's a given we will continue with CAFO style farming. I'm saying we need to scrap that system entirely, thus removing the grains from the diets of most animals (apparently chickens do need some unless they're 100% foragers, and even then a little winter supplementation is nice) so that all those grains are no longer being grown merely to be fed to animals. We could return the grasslands of the midwest to...wait for it...grasslands. With herd animals on them and all the bugs, mammals, and birds that are supposed to be there. Sequestering carbon and building up the soil again that we've recklessly destroyed (https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2018/10/09/some-plants-nurture-soil-bacteria-that-keep-them-healthy).

FWIW, I do limit my beef/pork/dairy. I was entirely beef and pork free for over a decade until I combined lives with my spouse. Now I eat a little bit, and he eats far less than he would if I wasn't in the picture, and he's come more to my side of things than I've gone to his. I'm working on cutting our chicken consumption in half, by simply adding less meat to meals and cutting it up smaller so it still seems like as much. I don't disagree that eating less meat is a great thing, and even eating no meat if that's your choice. But making it a black and white choice between veganism and horrible conventional agriculture is a false dichotomy. There's another route, one that works very well if taken along with moderation.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: simonsez on October 09, 2018, 05:38:57 PM
@Cache_Stash

Both your links pasted above state that the appropriate measures to deal with climate change are a combination of reducing fertility rates (by empowering women) and by curbing emissions.

There are many organisations working to lift women out of poverty in the developing world and enable them to limit their family size. I hear that in the US there are issues around access to birth control but groups are working on that.

So... Population and birth rates are very much being considered and are definitely being worked on in a humane way.

Slaughtering 6 out of 7 people or allowing them to succumb to disease. I don't see that as a workable solution, mate.
Yes, the education and rights of women are the major input to the population side.  Want to reduce fertility in developing areas?  Teach young girls how to read, let them advance through secondary and tertiary schooling, have a career, vote, drive, own property, have equal say in family planning matters, and then see if they have fewer kids compared to the version of themselves in a rural hut where more children = more help in the fields.

Also, related: clean water/sanitation contribute to lower fertility by generally being a prerequisite.  So if an area has illiterate women AND no clean water, start with the clean water first.  Harder for someone to naturally want to have only 0, 1, or 2 children if the U5 mortality rate is 50% (~historical rate up until ~early 20th century in "developed" countries) regardless of their education and rights.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: MasterStache on October 09, 2018, 05:50:33 PM
@Cache_Stash What do you mean when you say "it's not enough to pull us back from the ledge"? You mean to a sustainable world population in general or specifically re: climate emissions?
If you truly feel that the earth is warming at the rate the IPCC says it is (although all of the models have thus far been wrong), then yes, it's too late.  If you are talking about general resources of the world, then yes it is too late.  Unless we have a pandemic or some other disastrous population event, our environment cannot sustain the number of people we have in the world.  A small number of people trying their best isn't going to be good enough.  And when I'm saying "small" I'm saying like maybe 350 Million people like the size of the US.

Yikes missed this little gem. Yeah it's rather tough to predict volcanic eruptions and other natural forcings yet despite this, surface temperature projections were pretty darn good.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/how-well-have-models-predicted-gw.html
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 09, 2018, 05:54:02 PM
Ermm. Gonna disagree massively here. Bat calling @Malaysia41 as she'll for sure have more and better argumentation than me and a more extensive collection of scientific information to back it up. But let me start with some basics:

First, I agree with you that the whole world going vegan is not going to work. Or actually it probably would, but I do agree that there's lots of land areas that aren't suitable to grow crops while they're perfectly fine for grazing and such. I also agree that monocultures aren't great and that a mix of different crops and a handful of animals might work best. But that's pretty far from what we're at now, so lets have a look at some data.

The crops you guys are mentioning (corn and soy) are mostly produced for animal food. 70% of all soy produced in the USA is used for animal feed (https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/coexistence-soybeans-factsheet.pdf). For corn, this percentage is at 36% (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/time-to-rethink-corn/). Apparently, worldwide, 55% of crops are used for human consumption and a whopping 36% as animal feed (https://www.vox.com/2014/8/21/6053187/cropland-map-food-fuel-animal-feed). Now, using that logic one might realize that the current numbers of farm animals are not sustainable as they apparently take up 36% of calories from all the foods we are growing (in monocultures)! Wouldn't it be way easier and result in way more variety in crops if we heavily reduce our animal consumption to levels where we don't need such an insane amount of crops just to feed our animals and have a meager 12%-3% (chicken vs beef) of the original calories left? I'm not sure what level of animal protein consumption would be sustainable, but for now the easiest for me seems to cut out all/most beef/pork/cheese as they are the worst environmental wise (and seemingly also health wise).

Regarding health; it's generally accepted that processed meat consumption (mostly red meat) is one of the main risk factors for colon cancer (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2991099/). After lung cancer and smoking, it is the strongest association found in cancer research (I don't have a source readily available for this number, but it was in a uni lecture I've had and it just stuck with me as I'd been taught meat was part of a healthy diet my whole life. A stronger risk factor might've been found by now, but the fact that it was a strong one is still standing).

You're still arguing this as if it's a given we will continue with CAFO style farming. I'm saying we need to scrap that system entirely, thus removing the grains from the diets of most animals (apparently chickens do need some unless they're 100% foragers, and even then a little winter supplementation is nice) so that all those grains are no longer being grown merely to be fed to animals. We could return the grasslands of the midwest to...wait for it...grasslands. With herd animals on them and all the bugs, mammals, and birds that are supposed to be there. Sequestering carbon and building up the soil again that we've recklessly destroyed (https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2018/10/09/some-plants-nurture-soil-bacteria-that-keep-them-healthy).

FWIW, I do limit my beef/pork/dairy. I was entirely beef and pork free for over a decade until I combined lives with my spouse. Now I eat a little bit, and he eats far less than he would if I wasn't in the picture, and he's come more to my side of things than I've gone to his. I'm working on cutting our chicken consumption in half, by simply adding less meat to meals and cutting it up smaller so it still seems like as much. I don't disagree that eating less meat is a great thing, and even eating no meat if that's your choice. But making it a black and white choice between veganism and horrible conventional agriculture is a false dichotomy. There's another route, one that works very well if taken along with moderation.

SisterX, you got to this before I did.  ;-)  If we went to mob grazing and ditched feedlots, that corn and soy and so on would not be used for animal feed.  Wild birds eat seeds, so it is normal for chickens to eat a bit of grain - but they will also eat insects, and really any meat if it is in a size they can handle.  I have read stories of old farmers who as boys had to find small animals (squirrels, etc.) to feed the chickens in winter when no insects were available.  Lots of animals we think of as herbivores are not, mice and squirrels will happily eat animals.  It is just they are often eating invertebrates, so people don't think of them as omnivores.

Plus some countries have a lot more arable land than others.  There is a reason most Canadians live close to the southern border, it is where the farm land is (also longer growing season, warmer, all the obvious).  Years ago someone pointed out that there are 6 categories of agricultural soil (at least in Quebec);  types 1-3 can be plowed, 4-6 can not.  Too steep, too rocky, too shallow, too erosion-prone.    They are still perfectly fine for grazing and haying.  Then there is soil that cannot grow a crop but can still grow trees. Plus ruminants can take plant material that is indigestible for us and turn it into high quality food (protein and fat).  Neat trick.

Meat and cancer - was a not very good study, self-reported intake, and did not separate raw meat (cooked before eating, of course) from highly processed meats (hot dogs, etc.).* Meat is a highly digestible source of protein, red meats are a major source of iron.  They do not need to be eaten in huge quantities, serving sizes in restaurants are ridiculous (and serving sizes at American restaurants are even more ridiculous).

*A lot of nutrition "science" has been done by people with agendas, ignoring basic biology.  Cholesterol was demonized for decades, but if you cut way back on your dietary cholesterol your liver will just make more to make up the difference between what was eaten and what is needed.  Cholesterol is essential, it is the fatty component of cell membranes, including the glial cells that support neurons.  I can't help but wonder what we are doing to our children, cutting down their fat (especially animal fat and cholesterol) intake.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 09, 2018, 06:07:44 PM
And the way crops are raised.  Right now field crops (think corn, wheat, soybeans) are basically mining the soil.  There are areas where 6-10" of topsoil have been lost, and that topsoil was full of carbon.  Plowing puts air deeper in the soil and increases oxidation, which releases carbon and methane into the air.  Intensive field crops also destroy masses of wildlife, and the trend to bigger fields has intensified that loss.  Bigger fields also mean more use of insecticides, since beneficial insects (i.e insects that eat insect pests) lose habitat.

No till practices (essentially you don't ever plow your fields) have changed a lot of this when it comes to row crop production. At this point a lot of farmland in the US devoted to corn and soybeans is adding rather than losing topsoil and increasing soil organic matter content (essentially stored carbon in the soil).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 09, 2018, 06:25:50 PM
Since @Hirondelle called me over - here's a couple sources I found useful.

https://www.elementascience.org/articles/10.12952/journal.elementa.000116/

"Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios"

Given that some land is not suitable for crops, and looking at land in the US, the 100% vegan diet does not come out as the diet that would sustain the most humans across the US. Mainly because it is limited to, well, cropland. If you read the abstract, you should also look at the data. Heavy meat diets do terribly.  Also this is strictly limited to land area. I don't recall them factoring in carbon emissions. So, given that CH4 emissions from cows are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, I would think that'd make the omni and dairy veg diets worse than what's portrayed here.

Quote
Using a biophysical simulation model we calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The scenarios included two reference diets based on actual consumption and eight “Healthy Diet” scenarios that complied with nutritional recommendations but varied in the level of meat content. We considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. Annual per capita land requirements ranged from 0.13 to 1.08 ha person-1 year-1 across the ten diet scenarios. Carrying capacity varied from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. However, the carrying capacity of the vegan diet was lower than two of the healthy omnivore diet scenarios. Sensitivity analysis showed that carrying capacity estimates were highly influenced by starting assumptions about the proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.

Here's a useful graph that shows the raw land needed for each diet.

(https://i.imgur.com/QItcDoMl.png)

and as you increase the % cropland available, vegan crosses over to the winner at 92%. Their assumption, IIRC, is that crop land can't be used every year, so some is left fallow.
(https://i.imgur.com/QCZpgHzl.png)

I'll post the other references later. They address the carbon emissions. But I find this land use study to be a useful way of getting my head around how the diets compare in terms of , uh, land use. :)

It's way past my bedtime. I still need to answer about the book Overshoot too. Tomorrow.
edit : sorry for all the janky edits - did I say it was past my bedtime?

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 09, 2018, 07:03:34 PM
The study is really interesting thanks for sharing! It occurs to me that they are estimating yield based on current agricultural practice, yeah? So it may be that this study doesn't necessarily contradict anything that SisX and Retiredat63 are saying about newer practices for livestock raising, for example. Additionally, there is increasing data that practices such as rotational grazing increase yield, so I wonder how that plays in.

The author also seemed pretty cautious about making any final assumptions about the best dietary changes because more data is needed.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sixwings on October 09, 2018, 08:06:50 PM
While I mentioned in an earlier post I'm generally quite pessimistic, there is hope for technologies.

For instance lab grown meat could be a huge game changer. If meat can be grown in a lab and we cheaper than conventially farmed meat and can be done relatively soon that could be a total gamechanger and allow us to really make a dent in climate change. Without the need to raise beef there would be a huge reduction in ghg from that but also millions of acres of now empty land and farmers that need something to do. They could go to growing crops and some of the land could be reforested by the farmers. This increase in crops and trees would suck carbon out of the air. Tech like this could be a game changer and could limit climate change to less than 2 degrees.

But the political will to allow lab meat to destroy a large portion of the agricultural economy is probably not there and it would probably somehow not be allowed on store shelves.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 09, 2018, 08:16:53 PM
I really like the drawdown project. I think it's hugely multidisciplinary and rigorous. I'm still finishing the book, though!

Here's a really cool graph that summarizes some ways to reduce greenhouse gases:

(https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5bb50ee098a180364d095e94-960-1182.png)

Source (https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-prevent-climate-change-natural-disasters-pollution-2018-10)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 09, 2018, 08:53:23 PM
I really like the drawdown project. I think it's hugely multidisciplinary and rigorous. I'm still finishing the book, though!

Here's a really cool graph that summarizes some ways to reduce greenhouse gases:

(https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5bb50ee098a180364d095e94-960-1182.png)

Source (https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-prevent-climate-change-natural-disasters-pollution-2018-10)

That's interesting that refrigeration methods are number 1! I had no idea! I will put this on my reading list and it's also good timing as I will need to buy a new fridge soon.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Hirondelle on October 10, 2018, 12:17:47 AM
That's a very interesting graph indeed @Meowkins.

Thanks M41 for chiming in and adding some more plant vs. meat-based diet data. SisX and Retiredat63; you are right that I did not say that your idea of agriculture was impossible. However, I'm not sure how sustainable that model would be at 7+ billion people. As far as I'm aware of most permacultures deliver way less caloric value on a same area so it would require lots of land. Totally possible in many not so populated areas, but I wonder how it would work for densely populated areas. I'd love to see some data/studies on this model though, so if you could show me some I'll have a look (no time to do any searches). I also think the transition to such a model will take some time though, so cutting meat consumption now is in my opinion still the better solution. The amounts of meat we eat in the west are just too much - if we'd all cut in half a model like you proposed would IMO also be much easier to set up and sustain. However, as I said I don't have numbers on this so I might just need to dig deeper!

Re health and red/processed meats. I agree that lots of nutrition science is just hard to perform and/or poorly performed, however the processed meat and cancer link is pretty obvious. Actually the Dutch Nutritional Center recently reduced the amount of meat they recommend in the diet due to the "strong scientific evidence" for there being a connection between processed/red meats and colon cancer. These folks are usually suuuuper slow and reserved with changing their recommendations + the farmers lobby is pretty damn strong so that they've changed this was huge news.

The links I provided yesterday were just a quick google search as it was late (hence I called over M41) but there's plenty of data out there.

@sixwings interesting that you mention lab grown meat. I'm very interested in the technological developments behind it, but I honestly wonder what problem it will solve. We already eat plenty of meat for nutritional value (rather too much) and too my knowledge lab meat still takes a lot of energy to grow (more than just crops - but please correct me if I'm wrong!). Beyond that, if people are already scared af about GMOs I wonder how willing they will be to adopt this.. The only actual problem that lab grown meat would solve here is that it would allow us to NOT cut our consumption but using less land/animals for the production of meat.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: MasterStache on October 10, 2018, 05:15:12 AM
I really like the drawdown project. I think it's hugely multidisciplinary and rigorous. I'm still finishing the book, though!

Here's a really cool graph that summarizes some ways to reduce greenhouse gases:

(https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5bb50ee098a180364d095e94-960-1182.png)

Source (https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-prevent-climate-change-natural-disasters-pollution-2018-10)

Thanks for the book recommendation. I am going to check that out.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 10, 2018, 06:16:38 AM
We are a numbers group here on the forums, right?

So when we mention recommendations that we cut down on meat, what are the start and end values?   And we have to get back to CAFO, agriculture is supported by cheap oil and subsidies, so our food prices are not good indicators of true cost of production.  Just like polluting industries have lower product prices, because society as a whole bears the cost of remediation, not the companies doing the polluting.  If food prices reflected true costs, grains and CAFO meats would be much more expensive, and more ecologically sound methods would be competitively priced.  After all, if my cost as a producer is 10 units, and yours is 7 because I am paying costs that you are not because you are subsidized, my product is bound to be more expensive because of your external support.  And this is why I just paid more for farmed antibiotic-free salmon at the grocery store than I would have paid for regular farmed salmon.  Antibiotic use in meat production has a social cost, the pathogens develop antibiotic resistance.  But cheaper meat.

In Ecology as a discipline, you can start anywhere and end up everywhere, because everything is interconnected.  Same with these discussion, good agricultural production and energy use and social implications are all tied together.

Grain - I just read a fascinating book, Against the Grain (James C. Scott) that posits that grains were important in the development of early states (think Mesopotamia, Egypt, etc.) because they are storable and portable and easily taxed and confiscated.  They are not better nutritionally than other starches such as potatoes/sweet potatoes/cassava/etc.  Plus of course one wonders at our choices, farmers used to fatten hogs on corn, and pigs and people are surprisingly similar metabolically, so what are we doing to ourselves with all the grains, including corn, that we eat?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 10, 2018, 08:00:08 AM
oh man, regarding farmed salmon....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYYf8cLUV5E

Norway!?!? e tu?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 10, 2018, 08:11:33 AM
oh man, regarding farmed salmon....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYYf8cLUV5E

Norway!?!? e tu?

Hmm, Norway and Chile for Atlantic salmon at Canadian Costco?  When we have farmed Atlantic salmon in the Maritimes?  And people are trying out trophic level salmon farming?  There is no wild Canadian Atlantic Salmon, the stocks are too low, there is only private sport fishing.

I wonder where my local grocery stores get their salmon from?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 10, 2018, 09:03:58 AM
@Cache_Stash

Both your links pasted above state that the appropriate measures to deal with climate change are a combination of reducing fertility rates (by empowering women) and by curbing emissions.

There are many organisations working to lift women out of poverty in the developing world and enable them to limit their family size. I hear that in the US there are issues around access to birth control but groups are working on that.

So... Population and birth rates are very much being considered and are definitely being worked on in a humane way.

Slaughtering 6 out of 7 people or allowing them to succumb to disease. I don't see that as a workable solution, mate.


“Allowing” or “slaughtering”. I never said either.  I’m just saying that that may be the only thing that saves mankind.  Earth initiated not mankind initiated.  We may have no choice.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 10, 2018, 09:07:01 AM
@Cache_Stash

Both your links pasted above state that the appropriate measures to deal with climate change are a combination of reducing fertility rates (by empowering women) and by curbing emissions.

There are many organisations working to lift women out of poverty in the developing world and enable them to limit their family size. I hear that in the US there are issues around access to birth control but groups are working on that.

So... Population and birth rates are very much being considered and are definitely being worked on in a humane way.

Slaughtering 6 out of 7 people or allowing them to succumb to disease. I don't see that as a workable solution, mate.
Yes, the education and rights of women are the major input to the population side.  Want to reduce fertility in developing areas?  Teach young girls how to read, let them advance through secondary and tertiary schooling, have a career, vote, drive, own property, have equal say in family planning matters, and then see if they have fewer kids compared to the version of themselves in a rural hut where more children = more help in the fields.

Also, related: clean water/sanitation contribute to lower fertility by generally being a prerequisite.  So if an area has illiterate women AND no clean water, start with the clean water first.  Harder for someone to naturally want to have only 0, 1, or 2 children if the U5 mortality rate is 50% (~historical rate up until ~early 20th century in "developed" countries) regardless of their education and rights.

Spot on as I see it.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 10, 2018, 09:59:47 AM
Meowkins, I also love the Drawdown project! It's been fun to go to their website (https://www.drawdown.org/) and check out everything.

Regarding farming, I think that for the general population reducing meat intake is a far better goal, much more achievable, than straight up veganism.

@Hirondelle - I also think that if we're concerned about land use then we need to get more people interested in cities interested in growing food. I don't think it's possible to feed 7+ billion people, especially not without destroying the planet in the process, without utilizing much of the "waste" space that's currently lawn.

From what I've seen, when done properly permaculture can produce more on a small plot of land than conventional ag. Especially when you consider that it doesn't really need outside inputs, they're highly productive.

Then there's all the wasted space in places like orchards, currently. Why do we not have chickens and turkeys roaming apple orchards? Excellent pest control and also a secondary product for the farmers. Why do we not have more space in cities for people to garden and even do small-scale animal husbandry for things like chickens? We allocate so much freaking public space for goddamn cars yet we can't be bothered to let people grow healthy food? Can you imagine how neighborhoods would change if, instead of parking spaces for everyone, we had public garden spaces for everyone?

As I said, the whole system is just stupid. We've got the knowledge to do better, to grow more with less, and we just. don't. Because the current system is making a few people very wealthy, and there are ag subsidies to keep the status quo just as it is. Freaking yay.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 10, 2018, 10:51:29 AM
@Cache_Stash What do you mean when you say "it's not enough to pull us back from the ledge"? You mean to a sustainable world population in general or specifically re: climate emissions?
If you truly feel that the earth is warming at the rate the IPCC says it is (although all of the models have thus far been wrong), then yes, it's too late.  If you are talking about general resources of the world, then yes it is too late. 

Thanks for clarification. What are you basing those opinions on?

Here is a good read on the problem.  In studies I’ve read, I’ve seen as low as 50million people is sustainable to as high as 10billion.  Most of which varied upon standard of living assumptions.  I just think without having a pandemic event or some other natural cause of population decline, we’re past the tipping point.  Very few people would be willing to give up a modern life as we know it.  Too many sacrifices involved.

https://www.ecowatch.com/is-the-current-rate-of-population-growth-sustainable-1881621412.html
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Yankuba on October 10, 2018, 10:51:33 AM
oh man, regarding farmed salmon....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYYf8cLUV5E

Norway!?!? e tu?

Great video - very interesting look at fish farming. The takeaway is that some fish farms are okay but some are not. And farmed salmon is really bad for you. I took some notes:

Fish demand is exploding. Farmed fish is cheaper than wild fish. Most people cannot afford wild fish. 40% of fish sold in France is farmed.

10 years ago, nobody heard of Panga, but now it is one of the most popular fish in France, served in schools, restaurants and catering halls. It comes from Vietnam and is exported to 30+ countries.

The journalist visited a Panga farm in Vietnam and everything was okay. The fish are fed several tons of fat/protein pellets twice a day. An army of laborers work 10 hour shifts turning the fish into fillets (10 seconds per fillet). That job gets you 150 Euros per month. Of note, the fillets are frozen so they add polyphosphates to the fish to help them freeze and retain water, but there was no mention of ill effects from polyphosphates.

The journalist visited another Panga farm in Vietnam and there were concerns. The owner of the farm was operating at a loss - expenses exceeded revenues. This farm had diseased fish, so they give the fish antibiotics. But the fish resist the antibiotics over time so they have to increase the dose. Additionally, several water areas of Vietnam where they have fish farms are heavily polluted. Rice farmers spray pesticides on the rice, which run off into the fish farms.

Next was a trip to Norway. Researchers in Norway learned that there are 15 meters of waste and pollution under the fish farms and the fish swim in this water. They add pesticides to the water - the same stuff they used to kill people in WWI. Salmon get sea lice - thus the need for pesticides. Some of the fish in Norway is genetically damaged and needs eight generations to clear. French scientists analyzed farmed Norwegian salmon and declared it the "most toxic food in the world" - 5x worse that ground beef. They fed farmed salmon to rats and the rats developed obesity and diabetes.

The worst aspect of farmed salmon is the salmon feed. Salmon feed = ground up fish. Many of the fish that are too polluted for humans become fish pellets for salmon to eat. The pellets also contain ethoxyquin, a substance used in agriculture but heavily regulated. However, it isn't regulated in fish feed even though researchers discovered it is dangerous and crosses the blood/brain barrier. Researchers who made noise about fish and ethoxyquin were forced out.

The last segment showed what happens to the fish when the fillets are removed. The skins get used in cosmetics and the rest becomes fish pulp that is used in pet food and processed foods. There is a mislabeling epidemic where pulp contains a variety of fish but is labeled as the more expensive, popular fish.

Some good news - I did some poking around and it looks like they don't use ethoxyquin in fish feed anymore pending a review:

http://academy.pittmanseafoods.com/en/2017/09/what-the-ethoxyquin-suspension-means/

Still, based on this video, farmed fish may be something we should aim to reduce in our diets.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 10, 2018, 11:15:47 AM
I think it would help if there were more essays like this one.
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/410748-conservatives-shouldnt-be-afraid-to-talk-about-climate-change

There needs to be a pathway for conservatives to join the conversation on a political level. Right now that is not the case, even though many conservatives care deeply about the environment. As it stands, the GOP (and to a lesser extent the Democratic Party) are heavily influenced by big business who will push to externalize their environmental costs to keep their shareholders happy (just ask Exxon). Providing an avenue for conservative voters to have a safe path to pushing for environmental action at the government level (as discussed in the essay) would help... it certainly wouldn't be worse than the status quo.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 10, 2018, 03:08:03 PM
@Malaysia41 Wow thanks for that youtube doc. I am casting it as I type this and sent it to my husband and best friend! Also thanks for the summary, @Yankuba.

@Glenstache Article looks super interesting, reading it after this.

here's a cool article that I saw on OZY:

Lower costs, policy changes and a growing recognition of the market potential of low-income communities are bringing solar power to poverty-stricken homes.
https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/solar-finds-its-place-in-the-sun-among-americas-poor/88695
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 10, 2018, 03:21:54 PM
From what I've seen, when done properly permaculture can produce more on a small plot of land than conventional ag. Especially when you consider that it doesn't really need outside inputs, they're highly productive.

Then there's all the wasted space in places like orchards, currently. Why do we not have chickens and turkeys roaming apple orchards? Excellent pest control and also a secondary product for the farmers. Why do we not have more space in cities for people to garden and even do small-scale animal husbandry for things like chickens? We allocate so much freaking public space for goddamn cars yet we can't be bothered to let people grow healthy food? Can you imagine how neighborhoods would change if, instead of parking spaces for everyone, we had public garden spaces for everyone?

As I said, the whole system is just stupid. We've got the knowledge to do better, to grow more with less, and we just. don't. Because the current system is making a few people very wealthy, and there are ag subsidies to keep the status quo just as it is. Freaking yay.

So I'd actually agree with you that with more intensive methods of farming (like permaculture) you can get more food per acre than current production methods employed in the USA. However, the reason we've adopted somewhat less productive methods of agriculture (which still produce vastly more food per acre than people imagined possible during the 1960s) is that in North America agriculture is relatively less constrained by the availability/cost of arable land, and relatively more constrained by the availability/cost of human labor to work on farms and produce food. As a result, North American agriculture is only middle of the road in terms of productivity per acre (well behind "developed NE Asia" <-- read Japan and Korea), but has the absolutely highest productivity per agricultural worker.

(http://www.choicesmagazine.org/UserFiles/file/Article1_Figure2_v3.jpg)

An orchard with turkeys roaming around may well produce more food per acre per year than an orchard without turkeys, but is also going to require hiring significantly more turkey wranglers, which is very hard for farmers to do in most parts of the country.

Now as yields decrease as the climate changes, and food prices start to creep up, you may indeed see a shift  towards higher land efficiency lower labor efficiency methods of farming in the USA. That's not something I'd celebrate. I've spent enough time working in farm fields to last me for the rest of my life. And from my experience working with others, it usually takes somewhere between one week and two months of working from sunrise to sunset, often in 100 degree heat, for most people to feel they've had enough of highly labor intensive agriculture to last themselves a lifetime.

TL;DR I agree yields in the US/Canada could be higher with other farming practices, but I think the reasons we don't see those practices today has little to do with a conspiracy of people profiting from the current system, and a lot to do with economic trade offs and the current prices for food, land, and human labor in our part of the world.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 10, 2018, 05:29:49 PM
Farmers are stingy bastards.  If there is a way to consistently get more profit out of their land, they'll be all over it.  Higher food prices will be necessary to drive some of the higher utilization ideas though to make them economically viable.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 10, 2018, 05:55:52 PM
From what I've seen, when done properly permaculture can produce more on a small plot of land than conventional ag. Especially when you consider that it doesn't really need outside inputs, they're highly productive.

Then there's all the wasted space in places like orchards, currently. Why do we not have chickens and turkeys roaming apple orchards? Excellent pest control and also a secondary product for the farmers. Why do we not have more space in cities for people to garden and even do small-scale animal husbandry for things like chickens? We allocate so much freaking public space for goddamn cars yet we can't be bothered to let people grow healthy food? Can you imagine how neighborhoods would change if, instead of parking spaces for everyone, we had public garden spaces for everyone?

As I said, the whole system is just stupid. We've got the knowledge to do better, to grow more with less, and we just. don't. Because the current system is making a few people very wealthy, and there are ag subsidies to keep the status quo just as it is. Freaking yay.

So I'd actually agree with you that with more intensive methods of farming (like permaculture) you can get more food per acre than current production methods employed in the USA. However, the reason we've adopted somewhat less productive methods of agriculture (which still produce vastly more food per acre than people imagined possible during the 1960s) is that in North America agriculture is relatively less constrained by the availability/cost of arable land, and relatively more constrained by the availability/cost of human labor to work on farms and produce food. As a result, North American agriculture is only middle of the road in terms of productivity per acre (well behind "developed NE Asia" <-- read Japan and Korea), but has the absolutely highest productivity per agricultural worker.

(http://www.choicesmagazine.org/UserFiles/file/Article1_Figure2_v3.jpg)

An orchard with turkeys roaming around may well produce more food per acre per year than an orchard without turkeys, but is also going to require hiring significantly more turkey wranglers, which is very hard for farmers to do in most parts of the country.

Now as yields decrease as the climate changes, and food prices start to creep up, you may indeed see a shift  towards higher land efficiency lower labor efficiency methods of farming in the USA. That's not something I'd celebrate. I've spent enough time working in farm fields to last me for the rest of my life. And from my experience working with others, it usually takes somewhere between one week and two months of working from sunrise to sunset, often in 100 degree heat, for most people to feel they've had enough of highly labor intensive agriculture to last themselves a lifetime.

TL;DR I agree yields in the US/Canada could be higher with other farming practices, but I think the reasons we don't see those practices today has little to do with a conspiracy of people profiting from the current system, and a lot to do with economic trade offs and the current prices for food, land, and human labor in our part of the world.

Now you're assuming that we should be keeping our food prices as artificially low as they currently are. I disagree with that premise. I don't think we should have ag subsidies any more than we should have subsidies for fossil fuel companies.

Yet here we are, spending 12 billion dollars extra on buying ag products that won't be sold to China because of the tariffs President Blowhard instituted. #winning #fiscalresponsibility #freemarket!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 10, 2018, 06:17:06 PM
We could almost start a separate thread on sustainable agricultural/food production practices.  I didn't put sustainable in " " even though I technically could have, because no ecosystem is perfectly balanced, and every time something gets sold off a farm, (or nutrients go down your sewage system) those nutrients are gone.

Just to improve my own food in-sourcing, I am planting 3 hazelnut bushes (this fall if I can get them, next spring otherwise).  I found an interesting article from New Brunswick about planting hazelnuts in non-productive parts of sugar bushes - better use of land, double cropping, different busy times so spread the workload out, etc.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 10, 2018, 06:24:33 PM
Now you're assuming that we should be keeping our food prices as artificially low as they currently are. I disagree with that premise. I don't think we should have ag subsidies any more than we should have subsidies for fossil fuel companies.

Yet here we are, spending 12 billion dollars extra on buying ag products that won't be sold to China because of the tariffs President Blowhard instituted. #winning #fiscalresponsibility #freemarket!

No, I'm not.

Farm subsidies have the effect of increasing the potential profitability of farming without increasing the price consumers pay for food at the grocery store (or alternatively decreasing the cost of food at the grocery story without decreasing farmer profitability).

Removing agricultural subsidies would indeed increase the prices paid for food by consumers. Since removing subsidies doesn't mean the farmers see any more money per bushel of apples or pound of turkey I don't see how it would make it more economically viable for a farmer to invest in more labor intensive agricultural practices.

To make more labor intensive (but more productive per acre) agricultural practices economically viable, you'd either need to drive up food prices paid by consumers while keeping farm subsidies in place, or remove farm subsidies and drive up food prices even further beyond the effect of eliminating the subsidies.*

*Or, for the sake of completeness, I suppose you could keep prices paid by consumers constant while driving down the cost of human labor, but that (like making food more expensive in a world with many people who are still food insecure) is undesirable for a lot of reasons.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 10, 2018, 06:34:49 PM
Now you're assuming that we should be keeping our food prices as artificially low as they currently are. I disagree with that premise. I don't think we should have ag subsidies any more than we should have subsidies for fossil fuel companies.

Yet here we are, spending 12 billion dollars extra on buying ag products that won't be sold to China because of the tariffs President Blowhard instituted. #winning #fiscalresponsibility #freemarket!

No, I'm not.

Farm subsidies have the effect of increasing the potential profitability of farming without increasing the price consumers pay for food at the grocery store (or alternatively decreasing the cost of food at the grocery story without decreasing farmer profitability).

Removing agricultural subsidies would indeed increase the prices paid for food by consumers. Since removing subsidies doesn't mean the farmers see any more money per bushel of apples or pound of turkey I don't see how it would make it more economically viable for a farmer to invest in more labor intensive agricultural practices.

To make more labor intensive (but more productive per acre) agricultural practices economically viable, you'd either need to drive up food prices paid by consumers while keeping farm subsidies in place, or remove farm subsidies and drive up food prices even further beyond the effect of eliminating the subsidies.*

*Or, for the sake of completeness, I suppose you could keep prices paid by consumers constant while driving down the cost of human labor, but that (like making food more expensive in a world with many people who are still food insecure) is undesirable for a lot of reasons.

If we didn't subsidize farmers, wouldn't the poor be hurt by the higher prices more than those better off?  I think so.  I think subsidies make sense to help out those that have a hard time making ends meet.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 10, 2018, 06:56:06 PM
If we didn't subsidize farmers, wouldn't the poor be hurt by the higher prices more than those better off?  I think so.  I think subsidies make sense to help out those that have a hard time making ends meet.

That is true.

Now to turn around and play devil's advocate, if the primary goal of farm subsidies is solely keep food affordable for the poor, dollar for dollar it'd almost certainly be more cost effective to increase funding (and expand eligibility) for food stamps, since in that case each dollar of spending is going directly to make food more affordable to people in need while overall farm subsidies (things like subsidized crop insurance) have to spend enough money to make food more affordable to both people in need and people with plenty of money.

There are other arguments for subsidies like crop insurance and price supports (smooths out otherwise extreme economic cycles, avoids waves of farmer suicides like we say in the 1980s, avoids the national security implications of becoming a nation depending on imports simply to keep its population fed as we see now in much of Western Europe and China, means presidential candidates are no longer judged by their ability to know the price of a gallon of milk, because the average voter is worried about being able to afford milk anymore) which individual people in this discussion may find more or less compelling. But while farm subsidies do help to reduce hunger in the USA, I wouldn't be comfortable saying that was a primary motivating factor for why they were originally put in place.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 10, 2018, 06:58:18 PM
Re American farm subsidies, read Joel Salatin - his take is the subsidies help the big get bigger and hurt the small family farm. Also  marketing boards, rules, etc., are all geared to large producers and create almost insurmountable hurdles for small producers.  I'm not a farmer and not an American, so don't know just how accurate he is, but he is definitely a small family farmer.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 10, 2018, 07:19:03 PM
Re American farm subsidies, read Joel Salatin - his take is the subsidies help the big get bigger and hurt the small family farm.

I agree he says this, but am not convinced it is correct.

Quote
Also  marketing boards, rules, etc., are all geared to large producers and create almost insurmountable hurdles for small producers.

I don't know how much of it is "geared towards large producers" but I do agree that, regardless of the specific area of the economy, the more regulation/rules/layers of bureaucracy are involved, the more that tilts the playing field towards the biggest players and away from the little guys. It is the same amount of effort to figure out what all the rules and requirements actually mean and comply with them whether you are farming 40 acres or 4,000, but for the guy farming 4,000 acres (who will likely still be a family farmer depending on what part of the country you live in) he's able to spread that cost of compliance over a much large number of bushels.

If a particular regulation is a needed one I don't see a good way to avoid this consequence. However, in many cases we probably could reduce the regulatory burden on farmers in some ways without risking a decrease in food safety.

Quote
I'm not a farmer and not an American, so don't know just how accurate he is, but he is definitely a small family farmer.

He's an interesting guy. I don't know how representative he is of farmers as a group given how much of his income is tied to his books and how much of his time is devoted to going around giving talks to people who read The Omnivore's Dilemma rather than farming itself.

But I would say it is really good that we have people like him who are experimenting with the best ways to intensify agriculture given modern techniques and approaches for when and if food prices get high enough that we need to do so.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 10, 2018, 07:26:12 PM
Why not just make a revenue neutral tax on carbon-intensive fertilizers and use that to subsidize smart practices?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 10, 2018, 07:32:14 PM
And we can add these to the mix of reasons for despair:
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a23639612/climate-change-report-2040/

And
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/410871-gop-shrugs-off-dire-study-warning-of-global-warming

Many of the republicans were saying that we could only do things if we can keep a strong economy, while we are at very low unemployment and a generally pretty strong economy. This framing is dangerous because it pits climate change action against economic stability as a zero sum game. It does not recognize that the do-nothing approach actually has significant costs. Ugh.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 10, 2018, 07:47:06 PM
Why not just make a revenue neutral tax on carbon-intensive fertilizers and use that to subsidize smart practices?

You certainly could do that. Either independently or as part of a general carbon tax.

The carbon emissions from synthetic fertilizer come primarily from cracking natural gas to produce hydrogen, and the electricity required to convert diatomic hydrogen and diatomic nitrogen into ammonia. The second is a high carbon process if you use electricity from coal plants and a low/zero carbon process if you use electricity from solar/wind/nuclear/hydro/etc.

I've seen proposals to use "stranded" wind energy in the middle of the country to create synthetic fertilizer is an essentially carbon neutral fashion, replacing the hydrogen from natural gas with hydrogen generated by electrolysis of water (no CO2 required if you use electricity from wind energy) and also use wind energy to power the creation of ammonia from hydrogen and nitrogen gas. These likely wouldn't be economically viable on their own, but with a tax like the one you propose, we might see significant uptake of "zero carbon" nitrogen fertilizers. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sixwings on October 10, 2018, 08:54:12 PM
That's a very interesting graph indeed @Meowkins.

Thanks M41 for chiming in and adding some more plant vs. meat-based diet data. SisX and Retiredat63; you are right that I did not say that your idea of agriculture was impossible. However, I'm not sure how sustainable that model would be at 7+ billion people. As far as I'm aware of most permacultures deliver way less caloric value on a same area so it would require lots of land. Totally possible in many not so populated areas, but I wonder how it would work for densely populated areas. I'd love to see some data/studies on this model though, so if you could show me some I'll have a look (no time to do any searches). I also think the transition to such a model will take some time though, so cutting meat consumption now is in my opinion still the better solution. The amounts of meat we eat in the west are just too much - if we'd all cut in half a model like you proposed would IMO also be much easier to set up and sustain. However, as I said I don't have numbers on this so I might just need to dig deeper!

Re health and red/processed meats. I agree that lots of nutrition science is just hard to perform and/or poorly performed, however the processed meat and cancer link is pretty obvious. Actually the Dutch Nutritional Center recently reduced the amount of meat they recommend in the diet due to the "strong scientific evidence" for there being a connection between processed/red meats and colon cancer. These folks are usually suuuuper slow and reserved with changing their recommendations + the farmers lobby is pretty damn strong so that they've changed this was huge news.

The links I provided yesterday were just a quick google search as it was late (hence I called over M41) but there's plenty of data out there.

@sixwings interesting that you mention lab grown meat. I'm very interested in the technological developments behind it, but I honestly wonder what problem it will solve. We already eat plenty of meat for nutritional value (rather too much) and too my knowledge lab meat still takes a lot of energy to grow (more than just crops - but please correct me if I'm wrong!). Beyond that, if people are already scared af about GMOs I wonder how willing they will be to adopt this.. The only actual problem that lab grown meat would solve here is that it would allow us to NOT cut our consumption but using less land/animals for the production of meat.

I think getting people to eat significantly less meat, at least in the US, at a scale that makes a difference, isn't going to go anywhere. Meat consumption is such a huge part of american cuisine and culture that I don't think it's really going to go anywhere at the levels it needs to go. So, if people aren't going to eat less meat we need to make that meat with less environmental impacts. Potentially lab grown meat would produce 96% lower ghg emissions, use 45% less energy, 99% less land use and 96% less water use. If it's cheaper than conventional meat at the supermarket shelves I think we would see a lot of people buying it over conventional meat. We could then put that land to better use. (source: https://phys.org/news/2011-06-lab-grown-meat-emissions-energy.html)

I think it's possible that in like 30-50 years conventional meat is so expensive it is a treat and we are eating mostly lab grown meat. A big hurdle is going to be regulations and the ag lobby that will want to kill this for obvious reasons. Anti-GMO people may have issues but I think people would adapt to it and eat it if it's cheap. People drink pop instead of water and it's just a bunch of chemicals. This is real meat, just grown in a lab not a cow. It can even be genetically enhanced to include add-ins like omega 3s, it can  enhanced to be richer, fattier and more flavourful that conventional meat. But to go anywhere it needs to be cheap.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 11, 2018, 06:19:05 AM
While I welcome and appreciate people’s desire to talk about the best ways to combat climate change and what lifestyle changes have the most impact, I haven’t participated in this thread because I think the biggest issue is that the subject has been diverted from the real issue, largely by corporate interests in the neoliberal water we all swim in. This article, which I just ran across, sums up the issue better than I could have said it.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/true-north/2017/jul/17/neoliberalism-has-conned-us-into-fighting-climate-change-as-individuals?CMP=fb_gu
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 11, 2018, 09:05:15 AM
While I welcome and appreciate people’s desire to talk about the best ways to combat climate change and what lifestyle changes have the most impact, I haven’t participated in this thread because I think the biggest issue is that the subject has been diverted from the real issue, largely by corporate interests in the neoliberal water we all swim in. This article, which I just ran across, sums up the issue better than I could have said it.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/true-north/2017/jul/17/neoliberalism-has-conned-us-into-fighting-climate-change-as-individuals?CMP=fb_gu

Those top 100 polluting companies don't pollute in a vacuum. They create products because we use them and they pollute because no one cares. Until we get Democrats in power who actually are bold enough to create regulations, we're stuck with doing what we can do, which is to be wise and active consumers.

In other words, if you must buy a car, buy an electric car. If you buy a rug, buy one made out of recycled plastic. If you want straws out of our lives, ask the server to not give you a straw.

When enough people decide to Do The Right Thing, then things can change. Like in Washington state, with any luck, in November.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 11, 2018, 09:37:36 AM
While I welcome and appreciate people’s desire to talk about the best ways to combat climate change and what lifestyle changes have the most impact, I haven’t participated in this thread because I think the biggest issue is that the subject has been diverted from the real issue, largely by corporate interests in the neoliberal water we all swim in. This article, which I just ran across, sums up the issue better than I could have said it.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/true-north/2017/jul/17/neoliberalism-has-conned-us-into-fighting-climate-change-as-individuals?CMP=fb_gu

Milton Friedman (one of the ultimate free-marketeers) would support a carbon tax:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2014/10/12/what-would-milton-friedman-do-about-climate-change-tax-carbon/#32b2bfd86928
Quote
Phil Donahue: Is there a case for the government to do something about pollution?

Milton Friedman: Yes, there's a case for the government to do something. There's always a case for the government to do something about it. Because there's always a case for the government to some extent when what two people do affects a third party. There's no case for the government whatsoever to mandate air bags, because air bags protect the people inside the car. That's my business. If I want to protect myself, I should do it at my expense. But there is a case for the government protecting third parties, protecting people who have not voluntarily agreed to enter. So there's more of  a case, for example, for emissions controls than for airbags. But the question is what's the best way to do it? And the best way to do it is not to have bureaucrats in Washington write rules and regulations saying a car has to carry this that or the other. The way to do it is to impose a tax on the cost of the pollutants emitted by a car and make an incentive for car manufacturers and for consumers to keep down the amount of pollution.

The argument is simple: government regulation is effective when there are externalities that affect a third party. He suggests that carbon pricing is a good tool.

This is a case where I agree with Friedman.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 11, 2018, 11:53:58 AM

Now you're assuming that we should be keeping our food prices as artificially low as they currently are. I disagree with that premise. I don't think we should have ag subsidies any more than we should have subsidies for fossil fuel companies.

Yet here we are, spending 12 billion dollars extra on buying ag products that won't be sold to China because of the tariffs President Blowhard instituted. #winning #fiscalresponsibility #freemarket!

@SisterX you're speaking my language.

I've made two videos about subsidies to animal agriculture in particular. Wanna see em? They're only 2-3 minutes long.

Full disclosure - I made these to encourage people to donate to my lobbying campaign to end subsidies to animal agriculture:

The first video is on my campaign site: https://www.lobbyists4good.org/animal-ag-subsidies

The second video is here.  https://youtu.be/uKyhPn4BpS4
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 11, 2018, 01:55:05 PM
While I welcome and appreciate people’s desire to talk about the best ways to combat climate change and what lifestyle changes have the most impact, I haven’t participated in this thread because I think the biggest issue is that the subject has been diverted from the real issue, largely by corporate interests in the neoliberal water we all swim in. This article, which I just ran across, sums up the issue better than I could have said it.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/true-north/2017/jul/17/neoliberalism-has-conned-us-into-fighting-climate-change-as-individuals?CMP=fb_gu

Those top 100 polluting companies don't pollute in a vacuum. They create products because we use them and they pollute because no one cares. Until we get Democrats in power who actually are bold enough to create regulations, we're stuck with doing what we can do, which is to be wise and active consumers.

In other words, if you must buy a car, buy an electric car. If you buy a rug, buy one made out of recycled plastic. If you want straws out of our lives, ask the server to not give you a straw.

When enough people decide to Do The Right Thing, then things can change. Like in Washington state, with any luck, in

I clicked through to the 100 companies and it seems they are all oil / coal / resource miners. So I agree, if we reduce our demand, we can reduce their impact.

Going back to the first article, I'm not sure tho what I'm being advised to do, except vote left. I don't think Corbyn will ever get in tho, he's not got the personality. Labour have a real chance here in AUS but they aren't very left wing anymore :). So what else?

I do enjoy an article that blames everything on Thatcher, so thanks for sharing, Kris :)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 11, 2018, 02:11:29 PM
While I welcome and appreciate people’s desire to talk about the best ways to combat climate change and what lifestyle changes have the most impact, I haven’t participated in this thread because I think the biggest issue is that the subject has been diverted from the real issue, largely by corporate interests in the neoliberal water we all swim in. This article, which I just ran across, sums up the issue better than I could have said it.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/true-north/2017/jul/17/neoliberalism-has-conned-us-into-fighting-climate-change-as-individuals?CMP=fb_gu

Those top 100 polluting companies don't pollute in a vacuum. They create products because we use them and they pollute because no one cares. Until we get Democrats in power who actually are bold enough to create regulations, we're stuck with doing what we can do, which is to be wise and active consumers.

In other words, if you must buy a car, buy an electric car. If you buy a rug, buy one made out of recycled plastic. If you want straws out of our lives, ask the server to not give you a straw.

When enough people decide to Do The Right Thing, then things can change. Like in Washington state, with any luck, in

I clicked through to the 100 companies and it seems they are all oil / coal / resource miners. So I agree, if we reduce our demand, we can reduce their impact.

Going back to the first article, I'm not sure tho what I'm being advised to do, except vote left. I don't think Corbyn will ever get in tho, he's not got the personality. Labour have a real chance here in AUS but they aren't very left wing anymore :). So what else?

I do enjoy an article that blames everything on Thatcher, so thanks for sharing, Kris :)

We won't reduce demand by wishing. We reduce demand by creating more attractive alternatives and recognizing that as long as our model is "unfettered, continuous expansion and consumption because that is what our economy is based on," there's only so much headway we will make.

And this article is far from blaming everything on Thatcher. There's a pretty good argument to be made that the Clinton administration was what cemented full-bore neoliberalism as a political ideal for the Democratic party.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 11, 2018, 02:16:37 PM
So what do we do?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 11, 2018, 02:22:32 PM
So what do we do?

We force the Big Conversations on our political candidates, companies, and governments. Not the should we have plastic straws conversations. Obciously, this has to come from the left, because it will never come from the right or the libertarians.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 11, 2018, 02:46:01 PM
So what do we do?

We force the Big Conversations on our political candidates, companies, and governments. Not the should we have plastic straws conversations. Obciously, this has to come from the left, because it will never come from the right or the libertarians.

In a world where even leftists don't want to get rid of their SUVs and large houses and flying across an ocean, how is that going to be managed? There's simply no will to have Big Conversations.

Sure, there's a lot of lip service but there are only token changes from most people. Recycling is easy because we can still consume as long as we recycle the cardboard and plastic shells! Large houses are ok because we can throw up a shitton of solar panels! Stop flying, well, that's just too much to ask.

I oscillate between despondency and hope.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 11, 2018, 02:54:08 PM
So what do we do?

We force the Big Conversations on our political candidates, companies, and governments. Not the should we have plastic straws conversations. Obciously, this has to come from the left, because it will never come from the right or the libertarians.

In a world where even leftists don't want to get rid of their SUVs and large houses and flying across an ocean, how is that going to be managed? There's simply no will to have Big Conversations.

Sure, there's a lot of lip service but there are only token changes from most people. Recycling is easy because we can still consume as long as we recycle the cardboard and plastic shells! Large houses are ok because we can throw up a shitton of solar panels! Stop flying, well, that's just too much to ask.

I oscillate between despondency and hope.

Yes, very true. I agree with everything you said. There’s no will to do what is necessary to prevent catastrophe. Because our lives are built around consumption. As is our economy. So we ignore that and talk about straws and recycling.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 11, 2018, 03:03:45 PM
Okay, I believe that the liberal party is as capitalist and greedy as the right, but fail to see what the end game here is in making it about neoliberals and their framing of individual action.

I guess I just disagree with the article. I think that it all exists as "Yes, and"s.

We should reduce our consumption and live more ecofriendly lifestyles.

Yes, and we should pressure corporations into environmentally friendly practices and products.

Yes, and we should lobby our government to create legislation that protects the earth.

Like, all three have to happen and be moving forward in parallel. Representative gov't that is shaped by an eco-conscious society that bridles corporations. What is the other option? That we just rail against corporations and capitalism and get pissed at corporations for not caring about the future? Or asking our government to impose regulations on corporations on behalf of a citizenry that can't get enough of consuming endlessly? For sure, a government that imposed regulations on corporations *or* the average person without getting that representative buy in would be doomed to fail.

I honestly think that the action taken to address climate change is going to have to address the issue of unbridled capitalism and consumerism necessarily. To politicize climate change and make it an armchair discussion about capitalism and neoliberals is even more is a distraction.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 11, 2018, 04:46:48 PM
Sort of OT - I once read a historical novel where a noblewoman commented that the nobility care about honour, and the merchants should never be allowed to run anything because all they care about is profit (she was dealing with dishonest greedy merchants at the time).  Not that I think the feudal system was all that great, but I don't think it was generally as bad as the Victorians made it out to be.  But we seem to be in the scenario where the merchants (read big business) run everything behind the scenes, and we are puppets.  After all, look at the research that goes into marketing products we don't really need.

I'm buying hazelnut bushes next week to increase my local food production (local = my yard).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 11, 2018, 05:33:14 PM
Okay, I believe that the liberal party is as capitalist and greedy as the right, but fail to see what the end game here is in making it about neoliberals and their framing of individual action.

I guess I just disagree with the article. I think that it all exists as "Yes, and"s.

We should reduce our consumption and live more ecofriendly lifestyles.

Yes, and we should pressure corporations into environmentally friendly practices and products.

Yes, and we should lobby our government to create legislation that protects the earth.

Like, all three have to happen and be moving forward in parallel. Representative gov't that is shaped by an eco-conscious society that bridles corporations. What is the other option? That we just rail against corporations and capitalism and get pissed at corporations for not caring about the future? Or asking our government to impose regulations on corporations on behalf of a citizenry that can't get enough of consuming endlessly? For sure, a government that imposed regulations on corporations *or* the average person without getting that representative buy in would be doomed to fail.

I honestly think that the action taken to address climate change is going to have to address the issue of unbridled capitalism and consumerism necessarily. To politicize climate change and make it an armchair discussion about capitalism and neoliberals is even more is a distraction.

Then the big question, as Mustachian people, is how to use our money (clout) to make the biggest impact? Is there any way to invest my money that actually makes a statement? We're a large group with, collectively, a lot of money. If we could all move our money into a fund that supports socio-climatic progress, that would be a rather big thing.

As it is, I'm getting a little upset that I'm saving money and I have it invested in companies that are destroying the planet I and my children live on. WTF? I can stop buying shit, and I have, but the fact that my money is still invested with these destructive corporations is what they hear the loudest. So what do I do with my money? Do I abandon the idea of FIRE and give it all away to charities that are working on these problems? Can FIRE even exist soon? It's based on capitalism, and according to the IPCC report and this one to the UN, capitalism is essentially doomed (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/capitalism-un-scientists-preparing-end-fossil-fuels-warning-demise-a8523856.html) unless it seriously changes everything about itself (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse). How do I reconcile that I am a huge part of the problem by propping up the current system, and how do I take myself out of that without tanking some possible futures? (Because, of course, things could be less dire than reported. The system could, in fact, change with enough will to do so. Etc. The reason I'm not currently giving away all my money is because, duh, if things continue on as they are then having money will be more helpful than not having money.*)

*If it was me alone to worry about, I probably would give away most of my money and just keep around a modest e-fund. But I have kids to think about, and since I have kids it's my job to protect them, care for them, and do my best to ensure they have a future. That's worth fighting for. Hence all my angst on this topic.


@RetiredAt63 - As usual you and I are thinking along similar lines. I discovered that I have wild filberts (hazelnuts) just starting to grow on my property. I'm going to move them to a better area, but I'm pleased as punch to have some free food plants to add to my "stash". :) Two apple trees, a cherry tree, an indoor/outdoor lemon tree, 6 blueberry bushes...next year most likely two peach trees. :) And I'm wondering if we have anywhere we could put grapes?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 11, 2018, 05:42:02 PM
Okay, I believe that the liberal party is as capitalist and greedy as the right, but fail to see what the end game here is in making it about neoliberals and their framing of individual action.

I guess I just disagree with the article. I think that it all exists as "Yes, and"s.

We should reduce our consumption and live more ecofriendly lifestyles.

Yes, and we should pressure corporations into environmentally friendly practices and products.

Yes, and we should lobby our government to create legislation that protects the earth.

Like, all three have to happen and be moving forward in parallel. Representative gov't that is shaped by an eco-conscious society that bridles corporations. What is the other option? That we just rail against corporations and capitalism and get pissed at corporations for not caring about the future? Or asking our government to impose regulations on corporations on behalf of a citizenry that can't get enough of consuming endlessly? For sure, a government that imposed regulations on corporations *or* the average person without getting that representative buy in would be doomed to fail.

I honestly think that the action taken to address climate change is going to have to address the issue of unbridled capitalism and consumerism necessarily. To politicize climate change and make it an armchair discussion about capitalism and neoliberals is even more is a distraction.

Then the big question, as Mustachian people, is how to use our money (clout) to make the biggest impact? Is there any way to invest my money that actually makes a statement? We're a large group with, collectively, a lot of money. If we could all move our money into a fund that supports socio-climatic progress, that would be a rather big thing.

As it is, I'm getting a little upset that I'm saving money and I have it invested in companies that are destroying the planet I and my children live on. WTF? I can stop buying shit, and I have, but the fact that my money is still invested with these destructive corporations is what they hear the loudest. So what do I do with my money? Do I abandon the idea of FIRE and give it all away to charities that are working on these problems? Can FIRE even exist soon? It's based on capitalism, and according to the IPCC report and this one to the UN, capitalism is essentially doomed (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/capitalism-un-scientists-preparing-end-fossil-fuels-warning-demise-a8523856.html) unless it seriously changes everything about itself (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse). How do I reconcile that I am a huge part of the problem by propping up the current system, and how do I take myself out of that without tanking some possible futures? (Because, of course, things could be less dire than reported. The system could, in fact, change with enough will to do so. Etc. The reason I'm not currently giving away all my money is because, duh, if things continue on as they are then having money will be more helpful than not having money.*)

*If it was me alone to worry about, I probably would give away most of my money and just keep around a modest e-fund. But I have kids to think about, and since I have kids it's my job to protect them, care for them, and do my best to ensure they have a future. That's worth fighting for. Hence all my angst on this topic.


@RetiredAt63 - As usual you and I are thinking along similar lines. I discovered that I have wild filberts (hazelnuts) just starting to grow on my property. I'm going to move them to a better area, but I'm pleased as punch to have some free food plants to add to my "stash". :) Two apple trees, a cherry tree, an indoor/outdoor lemon tree, 6 blueberry bushes...next year most likely two peach trees. :) And I'm wondering if we have anywhere we could put grapes?

We have a book on our shelf called The Ethical Investor which explains how to find ethical investments. I actually picked it up yesterday after having the same thought as you. It was telling me to stock pick though but there was a small section at the back about managed funds. I do know that there are sustainable / ethical managed funds available (obviously with higher fees than Vanguard). But those fees might be a suitable ethical surcharge.

ETA: There is a managed fund like this in AUS that is performing extremely well.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 11, 2018, 05:43:21 PM
@RetiredAt63 - As usual you and I are thinking along similar lines. I discovered that I have wild filberts (hazelnuts) just starting to grow on my property. I'm going to move them to a better area, but I'm pleased as punch to have some free food plants to add to my "stash". :) Two apple trees, a cherry tree, an indoor/outdoor lemon tree, 6 blueberry bushes...next year most likely two peach trees. :) And I'm wondering if we have anywhere we could put grapes?

Yes to ethical investing, must investigate. I have some cash ready for investing while the market is down.

I am having work done outside, and while the big Kubota is here I am moving things around.  The two cherry trees are moving to a better site, the holes are dug for the hazelnuts, and I think I know where I want my 2 blueberry bushes and a haskap  (still in pots) to go.  I love blueberries, I should be growing my own!   2 bushes are not enough, I will be doing air layering next spring.

I just harvested my sweet potatoes*, not enough to get me much past Christmas.  I need to give them a long raised row, instead of crowding them in a raised bed.  Carole Deppe has a point, squash are similar in taste and nutrition and a lot easier to harvest!  I may try drying a few, sweet potato air-dried chips, yum.

*I'm Canadian, sweet potatoes are a vegetable,  the idea of a casserole or pie made with them is a bit odd, but I read about them for American Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 11, 2018, 05:52:01 PM
I just harvested my sweet potatoes*, not enough to get me much past Christmas.  I need to give them a long raised row, instead of crowding them in a raised bed.  Carole Deppe has a point, squash are similar in taste and nutrition and a lot easier to harvest!  I may try drying a few, sweet potato air-dried chips, yum.

*I'm Canadian, sweet potatoes are a vegetable,  the idea of a casserole or pie made with them is a bit odd, but I read about them for American Thanksgiving.

You got a sweet potato harvest in Canada? Clearly I need to up my game down here. Have always worried my growing season wouldn't be long enough (and the couple of plants I started in pots lost almost every leaf to bunnies once they moved outside).

Anyway, way to go!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 11, 2018, 06:00:05 PM
This is the managed fund I was talking about. If you read this article it explains how they pick their ethical investments, which happily also follows on to being good economic investments. These guys actually travel to inspect conditions at factories etc.

https://www.afr.com/markets/how-to-make-money-the-sustainable-way-20180607-h113ks

Hopefully there's something similar in the US & Canada?

Disclaimer: I know one of the guys in the article.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: mspym on October 11, 2018, 06:32:27 PM
This is the managed fund I was talking about. If you read this article it explains how they pick their ethical investments, which happily also follows on to being good economic investments. These guys actually travel to inspect conditions at factories etc.

https://www.afr.com/markets/how-to-make-money-the-sustainable-way-20180607-h113ks

Hopefully there's something similar in the US & Canada?

Disclaimer: I know one of the guys in the article.

That does look interesting but is behind a paywall - company name?
Sadly, our company only gets the paper version of AFR and haven't held on to copies from June.
: /
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 11, 2018, 06:45:25 PM
This is the managed fund I was talking about. If you read this article it explains how they pick their ethical investments, which happily also follows on to being good economic investments. These guys actually travel to inspect conditions at factories etc.

https://www.afr.com/markets/how-to-make-money-the-sustainable-way-20180607-h113ks

Hopefully there's something similar in the US & Canada?

Disclaimer: I know one of the guys in the article.

That does look interesting but is behind a paywall - company name?
Sadly, our company only gets the paper version of AFR and haven't held on to copies from June.
: /

That's weird that I can read it. I don't subscribe. It's Stewart Investing. They sort of sit within Colonial I think. The fees are about 1% so same as Vanguard retail I guess?

ETA: HOLD ON! Let me find a link. It's saying institutional investors only but that's not right. Stewart Investors not investing btw.

Here's the some of the interesting bits of the text from the article. They basically really delve into things!

"The term "sustainable investing" is often used interchangeably with labels such as "ethical" or "socially responsible". There is no single label that encapsulates the broad church of this style of investing, so Edgerton lays out the philosophy.

"The way we look at it is thinking, OK, if you are going to allocate capital to the economies of the world, how are they going to transition for our lower-carbon future? How are they going to work for the tens and hundreds of millions being lifted out of poverty? How are they going to deal with massive healthcare issues such as diabetes?

"And how we invest and allocate capital today is going to have fascinating implications over the coming decades with how those economies develop, but also provides fantastic opportunities in interesting areas to invest."

For example, the fund is invested in soy milk company Vita Soy. The starting point was that there is "obviously huge demand among the emerging middle class in China for beverages", Edgerton says.

The team looked at a Chinese dairy company as well as some well-established Coca-Cola brands. When comparing the three, the soy milk company emerged the best positioned from a sustainability angle.

"Dairy is very, very water-intensive," Edgerton explains. "China has a huge issue with water sustainability, and when you analyse the supply chains there are real risks sitting there.

"There's also the health positioning of soy milk, which is clearly much better positioned than the Coca-Cola company. Up to 100 million people in China are at risk of type 2 diabetes, so at some point sugar taxes and things like that are a real threat." (There are at least 31 taxes on sugar around the world, he says.)

 "Brambles is a fascinating to us in terms of what is called the 'circular economy'," Edgerton says.
"Every great sustainability idea is not necessarily a good investment," he adds. "You need to maintain rigorous, proper investment discipline and understand the risks and opportunities around it."

"We are huge fans of distributed solar energy but we don't actually own any solar companies because we can't find any that meet our very strict investment criteria," Gait says"
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 11, 2018, 07:02:49 PM
Mspym this is a good place to start:
https://responsibleinvestment.org
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 11, 2018, 07:05:27 PM
I just harvested my sweet potatoes*, not enough to get me much past Christmas.  I need to give them a long raised row, instead of crowding them in a raised bed.  Carole Deppe has a point, squash are similar in taste and nutrition and a lot easier to harvest!  I may try drying a few, sweet potato air-dried chips, yum.

*I'm Canadian, sweet potatoes are a vegetable,  the idea of a casserole or pie made with them is a bit odd, but I read about them for American Thanksgiving.

You got a sweet potato harvest in Canada? Clearly I need to up my game down here. Have always worried my growing season wouldn't be long enough (and the couple of plants I started in pots lost almost every leaf to bunnies once they moved outside).

Anyway, way to go!

I found a nursery that carried short season starter slips, I've kept them going for 4 years now. And Vesey's (PEI) carries them too.  They are still a semi-tropical plant, they started having dead leaves when the tomatoes were still fine with the colder nights.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 11, 2018, 07:07:03 PM
I'll have to dig into shorter season sweet potatoes. Thanks!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 11, 2018, 08:10:12 PM
I'll have to dig into shorter season sweet potatoes. Thanks!

My pleasure.   :-)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Johnez on October 11, 2018, 09:01:06 PM
For anyone thinking it's too difficult to get the whole country to change a habit, being that we are such independent people and don't like being told what to do (Americans), I'd like to point out the American male went from over 50% smokers to less than 17% from 1955 to 2015. A concerted campaign and a political awareness of the facts regarding pollution (versus the hysterics) and affects on health, economy and the coastline can put even the reddest politicians on the side of the environment. Self interest is universal. Green investing has been found profitable in quite a few red states. Corporations poisoning the water tables and the air around isn't just a problem for liberals, our fisheries and tourist attractions need to make a profit too, right?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: mspym on October 11, 2018, 09:16:17 PM
Mspym this is a good place to start:
https://responsibleinvestment.org

Thanks! I am also planning a skype session with a friend who has just been finishing up a conference on impact investing. I mean, this sort of analysis is her Actual Grown Up Job.

Sheesh I have had all the resources I need at my fingertips and have just not made use of them. If that's not an illustration of how we get into the situation, I don't know what is.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 11, 2018, 09:20:56 PM
Mspym this is a good place to start:
https://responsibleinvestment.org

Thanks! I am also planning a skype session with a friend who has just been finishing up a conference on impact investing. I mean, this sort of analysis is her Actual Grown Up Job.

Sheesh I have had all the resources I need at my fingertips and have just not made use of them. If that's not an illustration of how we get into the situation, I don't know what is.

Same.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 11, 2018, 10:02:04 PM
For anyone thinking it's too difficult to get the whole country to change a habit, being that we are such independent people and don't like being told what to do (Americans), I'd like to point out the American male went from over 50% smokers to less than 17% from 1955 to 2015. A concerted campaign and a political awareness of the facts regarding pollution (versus the hysterics) and affects on health, economy and the coastline can put even the reddest politicians on the side of the environment. Self interest is universal. Green investing has been found profitable in quite a few red states. Corporations poisoning the water tables and the air around isn't just a problem for liberals, our fisheries and tourist attractions need to make a profit too, right?

That is really awesome and I agree that big changes like that can be made. However, the science all agrees that we have YEARS rather than DECADES to make these changes. So if you can think of a strategy that will get us to less than 50% of our current emissions within 10 years, and down to 0 emissions by 2040, please tell us. Because the message has been consistent since at least my childhood (I learned about this in elementary school, early 90s) and things have only gotten worse. :(
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Johnez on October 11, 2018, 11:20:31 PM
There aren't any magic bullet solutions. What I'm saying is that change is possible, and large change comes about from several actions. Tesla now has the car with the highest net revenue. This car didn't exist 10 years ago. Pretty damn impressive. There exists the drive and people are well on there way to changing the world even if a large portion of people aren't on board. No need to throw up the hands with an all or nothing attitude.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: diapasoun on October 12, 2018, 03:38:10 PM
PTF because I've been really, really enjoying this discussion (although I don't have anything particularly useful to say that hasn't been said by anyone else....)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 12, 2018, 05:01:15 PM
For anyone thinking it's too difficult to get the whole country to change a habit, being that we are such independent people and don't like being told what to do (Americans), I'd like to point out the American male went from over 50% smokers to less than 17% from 1955 to 2015. A concerted campaign and a political awareness of the facts regarding pollution (versus the hysterics) and affects on health, economy and the coastline can put even the reddest politicians on the side of the environment. Self interest is universal. Green investing has been found profitable in quite a few red states. Corporations poisoning the water tables and the air around isn't just a problem for liberals, our fisheries and tourist attractions need to make a profit too, right?

Many other examples of dramatic change, sometimes in years:


There are others. Different contexts, strategies, regulations, etc, but doing things before means we can do them again.

People used to think nothing of lighting cigarettes on airplanes. Can you imagine what would happen if you lit a fire on a plane today? Talk about an about face.

One day people will look at single use plastic that way, as well as unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions.

You can hear influential people changing their behavior on my podcast, Leadership and the Environment (http://joshuaspodek.com/podcast). Guests include TED speakers with tens of millions of views, a Presidential Medal of Freedom honoree, a Superbowl winner, several #1 bestselling authors, a Pulitzer Prize winner, and more.

Coming soon: the head of West Point's leadership department, possibly a Nobel Prize winner, and more. I'm just starting.

My goal is to create community, so people stop feeling "If I act but no one else does then it won't matter," by showcasing influential people changing.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 12, 2018, 05:21:01 PM
Ozone was an international effort, as outlined in the Montreal protocol
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/international-affairs/partnerships-organizations/ozone-layer-depletion-montreal-convention.html (https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/international-affairs/partnerships-organizations/ozone-layer-depletion-montreal-convention.html)

The Kyoto accord was supposed to do the same for green house gases, but we all know how that went.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on October 12, 2018, 05:40:48 PM
Ozone was an international effort, as outlined in the Montreal protocol
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/international-affairs/partnerships-organizations/ozone-layer-depletion-montreal-convention.html (https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/international-affairs/partnerships-organizations/ozone-layer-depletion-montreal-convention.html)

The Kyoto accord was supposed to do the same for green house gases, but we all know how that went.

It appears that the announcement of success on protecting the ozone layer may have been premature, as China is producing CFCs again -

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/ozone-hole-chemicals-cfc-increase-mystery-source-east-asia-antarctica-a8354481.html
https://inews.co.uk/news/environment/the-hole-in-the-ozone-could-be-growing-again-heres-why/

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Telecaster on October 12, 2018, 06:05:01 PM

The argument is simple: government regulation is effective when there are externalities that affect a third party. He suggests that carbon pricing is a good tool.

This is a case where I agree with Friedman.

Even better than a carbon tax would be a cap and trade system, which encourages industries that can cheaply carbonize to do it quickly. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 12, 2018, 07:10:49 PM
OZY seems to really be taking the climate coverage seriously after the IPCC report. Here's a "Special Briefing" that curates articles, videos, and a selection of books.

https://www.ozy.com/need-to-know/special-briefing-the-new-frontiers-of-climate-change/89915

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 12, 2018, 08:46:16 PM

The argument is simple: government regulation is effective when there are externalities that affect a third party. He suggests that carbon pricing is a good tool.

This is a case where I agree with Friedman.

Even better than a carbon tax would be a cap and trade system, which encourages industries that can cheaply carbonize to do it quickly.

The downside of cap and trade is that you need to build in a strong mechanism to actually REDUCE carbon emissions, not just prevent further growth. It's possible to do that in a cap and trade context (for example having the government purchase up and sequester extra carbon emission rights when they drop below a certain price floor, or have each unit of emission rights shrink a little each year (so the right to emit 1,000 tons of CO2 in 2019 becomes 950 in 2020, 900 in 2021 and so on), but none of the cap and trade proposals I'm familiar with incorporate such a mechanism.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 12, 2018, 11:01:10 PM
regarding quick change.

"Appeal to Identity"

Any message that appeals to identity, where someone feels they are being truly "American" or "Texan" or "<insert identity here>" by acting in accordance with the thing you want to change - will bring change.

An example discussed at length by the Heath brothers in their book 'Switch' is the anti-littering campaign in Texas. The campaign showcased high profile, quintessential Texans, throwing their litter in a garbage can and saying, 'Don't mess with Texas'.  Suddenly, from truckers to teachers, every Texan was an anti-litter warrior, and they gave major Texan stink eye to anyone who littered.

Unfortunately, around 2009, 'skeptic' became a de-facto identity. The people who want to continue the status quo with us burning fossil fuels unfettered, were very effective at helping people identify as 'skeptics' especially around the time of Climate gate. 'Skeptic' sounds smart. It sounds rational. It sounds conservative. And it allows people to dismiss evidence, which is convenient, especially when that evidence is challenging one's devotion to this libertarian/capitalist ideology most of us in the western world were indoctrinated with. So being a skeptic makes life comfortable again. Being a 'skeptic' helps people gulp down the mountains of pablum put out by fossil fuel sponsored think tanks like AEI and the Manhattan Institute.

So what's the identity we appeal to? The 'skeptic' camp has already poisoned words like 'global' 'globalist', 'green', 'environmental', and 'justice'. Those are associated with whiny, entitled, naive SJWs who could do with some guddumned discipline.

Given where we are, how to we appeal to identity? Who are the people we need to appeal to? Is it older privileged people?  The 1%? The .1%?

Maybe we need people to make the connection to their children and grandchildren. "Stop supporting leaders who are gambling your children's future on a 3% long-shot."

IDK - that's not appeal to identity, it's more argumentative and too blamey. But seriously, that's what the fossil-fuel industry sponsored 'skeptics' are doing. They are convincing people to let them gamble humanity's future on a long shot. (which actually isn't a long shot - it's a 0% chance we avert calamity).

How would you craft a 'Don't mess with Texas' style appeal to identity for averting global warming - to the people who need to adopt this messaging the most?

'Don't mess with Earth', 'Don't mess with my home'?  These aren't good. Obviously it needn't follow the 'don't mess with' phrasing. What are your ideas?

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 12, 2018, 11:37:01 PM
@Malaysia41 I haven't read Overshoot! I looked at a review just now as well as the synopsis. It doesn't seem particularly focused on climate change, but if I'm understanding correctly, the idea is that human beings are inevitably going to ruin themselves with exhausting our resources in general. I'd love to hear more about why you recommend this as reading material, since you obviously are making very thoughtful lifestyle changes and advocating in many ways!

@wordnerd It is pretty dismal feeling! A 10 year timeline feels so so so short, even if that's "optimistic" by some standards. I guess we can't do anything but keep doing our best. Can't wait to get baby outside in the real world so I can feel more like a normal person and can get back to trying to be more involved locally.

I see it like this. We are a species on this earth who is well into ecological overshoot. Like other species, it's inevitable.

But - we have these marvelous brains and gumption and reason and skill .... we could use these assets to you know, dampen the overshoot and soften the landing and maybe just maybe, preserve our environment just enough to at least let humanity through the bottleneck, and hopefully, at most, make it less painful for the generations of humans who will experience the collapse.

Like Catton describes in the book, we can be like an algae bloom, that grows and dies off but comes back again. Or, we can be like bacteria in a cask full of crushed grapes, eating through all the sugars and generating poisonous alcohol that, in the end, kills all the bacteria. They don't get out of that cask alive. Right now we are behaving like bacteria, and I think we could at least try to behave like the algae.  ( I may not have the biology here 100% nailed, but you get the picture).

I mean, we can do this. Obviously we are neither algae nor bacteria. We are capable of working together for common purpose and fighting for our survival. Our brains are our strength and we should use them. But our brains are also our weakness. Our brains can be hijacked. Like my parent's and brothers's brains have been. They've been so thoroughly duped into ideological inflexibility, they are unwilling to consider evidence that would have them doubting their ideologies.

The hyper-libertarian capitalistic orthodoxy that so many subscribe to, is making us behave like the bacteria, when we could instead behave more like the algae.

Note that in both analogies we're in overshoot, and will collapse. At this point it's a matter of when exactly. I'm guessing it's coming in my lifetime. I'm gen X. But it's not just about when collapse comes, it's about how painful that collapse will be, and whether humanity will survive it.

Will we collapse to rise again, or collapse into extinction? Am I really generation eXtinction? The more I study what's going on, the more this is what I'm coming to believe.  At the very least, I'm in for the rapid collapse. We're already in collapse, but we haven't hit the steep ramp down yet. I think I'll be here for it.

And then there is my precious boy. Last night, I baked a birthday cake for his 13th birthday party, which is today. I'm am sad and scared for his future. At least I've lived 40+ years. His life is only beginning. We should be at a point where we are finalizing the transition to clean energy and hyper-optimized energy efficient living, and creating a promising future for our children. We could have followed the advice of wise, well-researched scientists, but instead we followed the greed of capitalists.  I'm still receiving emails from my dad quoting op-eds telling him he can 'safely ignore climate alarmists'.   Even so, even if we'd embraced clean energy in the 70s and stopped burning coal in the 80s, of course, that would only encourage our species to grow and eventually there'd be some other resource constraint causing collapse. It is all ecology. I just think that, given that we can understand the underlying science, and given that we can be ingenious when we need to, we could at least try to manage our predicaments.

At this point, it's not a choice between deciding whether to focus on clean energy, or atmospheric interventions, or controlling population growth, it's ALL OF THE ABOVE. You needn't choose 1 thing.

Yes - we should pursue technological solutions to get carbon out of the air - but in the meantime, stop eating beef and dairy. And spread the word and get others to adopt a whole food plant based diet*.

Yes, we should make contraception freely available to all people on the planet, and make sure everyone has decent healthcare and fewer babies - and in the meantime bike rather than drive, take public transport rather than fly.

So I'm fighting. And I'm trying to widen my circle of control. For my son. What else can I do?

*WFPB diet:Seriously I've never loved food so much. Since adopting a WFPB diet, I feel zero shame around eating, and I'm at my ideal weight without even trying. My blood work is stellar. But these are side benefits. All I'm saying is adopting a WFPB diet has side benefits. it's great for the planet, great for your health, and way better for the animals. We breed these poor babies into a tortuous existence all so we can harden our arteries after digesting their flesh. Maybe that sounds like crazy vegan talk but well, it's truth. If you want 22 days of support transitioning to a WFPB diet, check out challenge22.com. And join us in the WFPB diet thread over in the throw down the gauntlet section.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 13, 2018, 12:17:13 AM
Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.

I have a friend who makes this argument. He is childless and his hobby is flying aircraft. It is perhaps possible that this is a self-serving argument.

It doesn't matter if what we do has an impact or not. "It is not a man's duty, as a matter of course, to devote himself to the eradication of any, even the most enormous wrong; he may still properly have other concerns to engage him; but it is his duty, at least, to wash his hands of it, and, if he gives it no thought longer, not to give it practically his support." - your countryman Henry David Thoreau.


Now, what sort of lifestyle might we choose if we wished to wash our hands of personal contribution to climate change, and not to give it practically our support? I would suggest that many of the things we could do are things which would also help our finances and our personal health: stop flying, home and work closer to each-other and walk and cycle rather than drive, eat less junk food and meat, use less natural gas and electricity, and so on. If you care only about finances, these are all good things to do; if you care only about health, these are all good things to do; and if you care only about the environment, these are all good things to do.

Further, once you consider the environment of other countries, and how places like China have worse environmental practices than most of the West, and then consider also the collapse of manufacturing in the West, "buy local" is both an environmentalist and a patriotic maxim.

I'm old-fashioned. I believe: duty first. Whether or not I pay my taxes, do jury duty or military or civilian service of some kind, whether I speak well of my wife behind her back or not, whether or not I call people by racial epithets when out of their hearing, the practical impact of these things is almost zero. Nonetheless an adult in a civilised society has duties. A duty is something which whether you like it or not and whether it makes a difference or not you simply must do. A society is nothing but an accumulation of kept promises and duties met.

Now, some may reply that we as humans have no duties to one another. And I would answer that this is indeed a popular point of view, and explains much of the world's problems now, but I wash my hands of such an idea, and do not give it practically my support.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wenchsenior on October 13, 2018, 09:24:09 AM
Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.

I have a friend who makes this argument. He is childless and his hobby is flying aircraft. It is perhaps possible that this is a self-serving argument.

It doesn't matter if what we do has an impact or not. "It is not a man's duty, as a matter of course, to devote himself to the eradication of any, even the most enormous wrong; he may still properly have other concerns to engage him; but it is his duty, at least, to wash his hands of it, and, if he gives it no thought longer, not to give it practically his support." - your countryman Henry David Thoreau.


Now, what sort of lifestyle might we choose if we wished to wash our hands of personal contribution to climate change, and not to give it practically our support? I would suggest that many of the things we could do are things which would also help our finances and our personal health: stop flying, home and work closer to each-other and walk and cycle rather than drive, eat less junk food and meat, use less natural gas and electricity, and so on. If you care only about finances, these are all good things to do; if you care only about health, these are all good things to do; and if you care only about the environment, these are all good things to do.

Further, once you consider the environment of other countries, and how places like China have worse environmental practices than most of the West, and then consider also the collapse of manufacturing in the West, "buy local" is both an environmentalist and a patriotic maxim.

I'm old-fashioned. I believe: duty first. Whether or not I pay my taxes, do jury duty or military or civilian service of some kind, whether I speak well of my wife behind her back or not, whether or not I call people by racial epithets when out of their hearing, the practical impact of these things is almost zero. Nonetheless an adult in a civilised society has duties. A duty is something which whether you like it or not and whether it makes a difference or not you simply must do. A society is nothing but an accumulation of kept promises and duties met.

Now, some may reply that we as humans have no duties to one another. And I would answer that this is indeed a popular point of view, and explains much of the world's problems now, but I wash my hands of such an idea, and do not give it practically my support.
 

I have raised an eyebrow at many of your posts on this board, but you have made a truly impressive statement here.

Thank you.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 13, 2018, 10:47:41 AM
@Malaysia41 Thanks for sharing such a thoughtful reply. I'm expecting my first child (also a boy!) and am in a similar-ish mindset. I am determined that even if the future is full of challenges, it will be something our civilizations are gearing up to survive.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 13, 2018, 11:11:18 AM
I haven't finished reading this thread, but I will. In the meantime, wanted to say to JoshuaSpodek, I applaud your POV and look forward to listening to your podcast.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 13, 2018, 11:16:10 AM

(reading backwards)

@JoshuaSpodek Your podcast sounds so cool!

@maizeman You seem really informed on this topic. Without being too nosy, is this something you focus on professionally or a passion?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 13, 2018, 11:23:17 AM

(reading backwards)

@JoshuaSpodek Your podcast sounds so cool!

@maizeman You seem really informed on this topic. Without being too nosy, is this something you focus on professionally or a passion?

It probably depends on how we define "this topic" and how broadly, but I guess the safest answer is that part of what we're discussing on this thread been a adult-life-long area of interest that these days is sometimes peripherally relevant to what I do for a living.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 13, 2018, 01:33:15 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10/100-fossil-fuel-companies-investors-responsible-71-global-emissions-cdp-study-climate-change

OK look at the list:

Top 100 producers and their cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from 1988-2015
Count   Company   Percentage of global industrial greenhouse gas emissions
1   China (Coal)   14.32%
2   Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco)   4.50%
3   Gazprom OAO   3.91%
4   National Iranian Oil Co   2.28%
5   ExxonMobil Corp   1.98%
6   Coal India   1.87%
7   Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex)   1.87%
8   Russia (Coal)   1.86%
9   Royal Dutch Shell PLC   1.67%
10   China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC)   1.56%
11   BP PLC   1.53%
12   Chevron Corp   1.31%
13   Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA)   1.23%
14   Abu Dhabi National Oil Co   1.20%
15   Poland Coal   1.16%
16   Peabody Energy Corp   1.15%
17   Sonatrach SPA   1.00%
18   Kuwait Petroleum Corp   1.00%
19   Total SA   0.95%
20   BHP Billiton Ltd   0.91%
21   ConocoPhillips   0.91%
22   Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras)   0.77%
23   Lukoil OAO   0.75%
24   Rio Tinto   0.75%
25   Nigerian National Petroleum Corp   0.72%
26   Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas)   0.69%
27   Rosneft OAO   0.65%
28   Arch Coal Inc   0.63%
29   Iraq National Oil Co   0.60%
30   Eni SPA   0.59%
31   Anglo American   0.59%
32   Surgutneftegas OAO   0.57%
33   Alpha Natural Resources Inc   0.54%
34   Qatar Petroleum Corp   0.54%
35   PT Pertamina   0.54%
36   Kazakhstan Coal   0.53%
37   Statoil ASA   0.52%
38   National Oil Corporation of Libya   0.50%
39   Consol Energy Inc   0.50%
40   Ukraine Coal   0.49%
41   RWE AG   0.47%
42   Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd   0.40%
43   Glencore PLC   0.38%
44   TurkmenGaz   0.36%
45   Sasol Ltd   0.35%
46   Repsol SA   0.33%
47   Anadarko Petroleum Corp   0.33%
48   Egyptian General Petroleum Corp   0.31%
49   Petroleum Development Oman LLC   0.31%
50   Czech Republic Coal   0.30%
51   China Petrochemical Corp (Sinopec)   0.29%
52   China National Offshore Oil Corp Ltd (CNOOC)   0.28%
53   Ecopetrol SA   0.27%
54   Singareni Collieries Company   0.27%
55   Occidental Petroleum Corp   0.26%
56   Sonangol EP   0.26%
57   Tatneft OAO   0.23%
58   North Korea Coal   0.23%
59   Bumi Resources   0.23%
60   Suncor Energy Inc   0.22%
61   Petoro AS   0.21%
62   Devon Energy Corp   0.20%
63   Natural Resource Partners LP   0.19%
64   Marathon Oil Corp   0.19%
65   Vistra Energy   0.19%
66   Encana Corp   0.18%
67   Canadian Natural Resources Ltd   0.17%
68   Hess Corp   0.16%
69   Exxaro Resources Ltd   0.16%
70   YPF SA   0.15%
71   Apache Corp   0.15%
72   Murray Coal   0.15%
73   Alliance Resource Partners LP   0.15%
74   Syrian Petroleum Co   0.15%
75   Novatek OAO   0.14%
76   NACCO Industries Inc   0.13%
77   KazMunayGas   0.13%
78   Adaro Energy PT   0.13%
79   Petroleos del Ecuador   0.12%
80   Inpex Corp   0.12%
81   Kiewit Mining Group   0.12%
82   AP Moller (Maersk)   0.11%
83   Banpu Public Co Ltd   0.11%
84   EOG Resources Inc   0.11%
85   Husky Energy Inc   0.11%
86   Kideco Jaya Agung PT   0.10%
87   Bahrain Petroleum Co (BAPCO)   0.10%
88   Westmoreland Coal Co   0.10%
89   Cloud Peak Energy Inc   0.10%
90   Chesapeake Energy Corp   0.10%
91   Drummond Co   0.09%
92   Teck Resources Ltd   0.09%
93   Turkmennebit   0.07%
94   OMV AG   0.06%
95   Noble Energy Inc   0.06%
96   Murphy Oil Corp   0.06%
97   Berau Coal Energy Tbk PT   0.06%
98   Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT   0.05%
99   Indika Energy Tbk PT   0.04%
100   Southwestern Energy Co   0.04%

While it's valid to say that focusing on individuals rather than corporations is perhaps a shell game in dealing with climate change, is the problem really "neoliberalism" when the vast majority of these carbon-producers listed above are oil companies? Doesn't that make our task relatively simple? Stop driving ICE cars (or cars in general) now!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 13, 2018, 01:45:08 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10/100-fossil-fuel-companies-investors-responsible-71-global-emissions-cdp-study-climate-change

OK look at the list:

Top 100 producers and their cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from 1988-2015
Count   Company   Percentage of global industrial greenhouse gas emissions
1   China (Coal)   14.32%
2   Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco)   4.50%
3   Gazprom OAO   3.91%
4   National Iranian Oil Co   2.28%
5   ExxonMobil Corp   1.98%
6   Coal India   1.87%
7   Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex)   1.87%
8   Russia (Coal)   1.86%
9   Royal Dutch Shell PLC   1.67%
10   China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC)   1.56%
11   BP PLC   1.53%
12   Chevron Corp   1.31%
13   Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA)   1.23%
14   Abu Dhabi National Oil Co   1.20%
15   Poland Coal   1.16%
16   Peabody Energy Corp   1.15%
17   Sonatrach SPA   1.00%
18   Kuwait Petroleum Corp   1.00%
19   Total SA   0.95%
20   BHP Billiton Ltd   0.91%
21   ConocoPhillips   0.91%
22   Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras)   0.77%
23   Lukoil OAO   0.75%
24   Rio Tinto   0.75%
25   Nigerian National Petroleum Corp   0.72%
26   Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas)   0.69%
27   Rosneft OAO   0.65%
28   Arch Coal Inc   0.63%
29   Iraq National Oil Co   0.60%
30   Eni SPA   0.59%
31   Anglo American   0.59%
32   Surgutneftegas OAO   0.57%
33   Alpha Natural Resources Inc   0.54%
34   Qatar Petroleum Corp   0.54%
35   PT Pertamina   0.54%
36   Kazakhstan Coal   0.53%
37   Statoil ASA   0.52%
38   National Oil Corporation of Libya   0.50%
39   Consol Energy Inc   0.50%
40   Ukraine Coal   0.49%
41   RWE AG   0.47%
42   Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd   0.40%
43   Glencore PLC   0.38%
44   TurkmenGaz   0.36%
45   Sasol Ltd   0.35%
46   Repsol SA   0.33%
47   Anadarko Petroleum Corp   0.33%
48   Egyptian General Petroleum Corp   0.31%
49   Petroleum Development Oman LLC   0.31%
50   Czech Republic Coal   0.30%
51   China Petrochemical Corp (Sinopec)   0.29%
52   China National Offshore Oil Corp Ltd (CNOOC)   0.28%
53   Ecopetrol SA   0.27%
54   Singareni Collieries Company   0.27%
55   Occidental Petroleum Corp   0.26%
56   Sonangol EP   0.26%
57   Tatneft OAO   0.23%
58   North Korea Coal   0.23%
59   Bumi Resources   0.23%
60   Suncor Energy Inc   0.22%
61   Petoro AS   0.21%
62   Devon Energy Corp   0.20%
63   Natural Resource Partners LP   0.19%
64   Marathon Oil Corp   0.19%
65   Vistra Energy   0.19%
66   Encana Corp   0.18%
67   Canadian Natural Resources Ltd   0.17%
68   Hess Corp   0.16%
69   Exxaro Resources Ltd   0.16%
70   YPF SA   0.15%
71   Apache Corp   0.15%
72   Murray Coal   0.15%
73   Alliance Resource Partners LP   0.15%
74   Syrian Petroleum Co   0.15%
75   Novatek OAO   0.14%
76   NACCO Industries Inc   0.13%
77   KazMunayGas   0.13%
78   Adaro Energy PT   0.13%
79   Petroleos del Ecuador   0.12%
80   Inpex Corp   0.12%
81   Kiewit Mining Group   0.12%
82   AP Moller (Maersk)   0.11%
83   Banpu Public Co Ltd   0.11%
84   EOG Resources Inc   0.11%
85   Husky Energy Inc   0.11%
86   Kideco Jaya Agung PT   0.10%
87   Bahrain Petroleum Co (BAPCO)   0.10%
88   Westmoreland Coal Co   0.10%
89   Cloud Peak Energy Inc   0.10%
90   Chesapeake Energy Corp   0.10%
91   Drummond Co   0.09%
92   Teck Resources Ltd   0.09%
93   Turkmennebit   0.07%
94   OMV AG   0.06%
95   Noble Energy Inc   0.06%
96   Murphy Oil Corp   0.06%
97   Berau Coal Energy Tbk PT   0.06%
98   Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT   0.05%
99   Indika Energy Tbk PT   0.04%
100   Southwestern Energy Co   0.04%

While it's valid to say that focusing on individuals rather than corporations is perhaps a shell game in dealing with climate change, is the problem really "neoliberalism" when the vast majority of these carbon-producers listed above are oil companies? Doesn't that make our task relatively simple? Stop driving ICE cars (or cars in general) now!

Yes, because the corporate capitalist model within neoliberalism means that those companies are subsidized by the government, and also that our politicians who are also corporatists will not enact regilations to push us away from dependence on fossil fuels to the speed and degree that we need it to happen.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 13, 2018, 02:02:32 PM
I don't depend on the government to make me (personally) rich or save the planet. I drive less. I'm a contrarian and have built businesses in fields that most people think you cannot make money doing. I have raised a family on one tiny car, with kids who bike, bus and walk everywhere. I mainly bike and public transit everywhere. Don't grow my own food but do grow my own eggs. Can't get down with the idea that I shouldn't have pets -- pets are my friends. Pets can also consume household food waste.

So many fascinating links in this thread. I haven't finished reading it but in another thread The Moneyless Manifesto was posted. It's an imperfect solution,  as are all, but I love that he points out that "ethical consumerism," while noble, is still problematic -- it's still consumerism.

http://www.moneylessmanifesto.org

This is a tricky problem. None of us are getting out of it alive, but then that's how life works anyway. In the 70s we were very concerned about saving energy, turning off lights, smaller cars, public transport. Then in the 80s we thought AIDS, killer bees and the Cold War would end us. In school they used to show us films about these things and believe me it was depressing. Now no one worries about AIDS, killer bees and the Cold War, at least not in comparison to climate change.

Riding my bike gives me joy, makes me feel like a badass, means one less car on the road, saves me a shit ton of money, says FU to Exxon, and makes me sexy as hell. We need to get cars off the road, and already we see cultural change around driving among young people. It's happening.

Whatever any of us do, it should be something, and I'm glad this thread collects a lot of useful options in one place.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 13, 2018, 08:15:42 PM
Thank you @RichCantante and @Meowkins. I'm working on bringing more influential guests. This week I spoke to a Nobel Peace Prize honoree and just got back from an Olympic training center, so I hope to record with them soon. They're enthusiastic. I believe hearing that people's role models are acting (not just talking or debating) will influence people's behavior more than most things.

The more people change, the more politicians will realize that they will vote as they act. So far politicians see that voters prefer SUVs and flying.

Speaking of taxes, as others did, I suggest calling it more accurately a pollution tax or externality tax, not a carbon tax. The issue isn't that people are using carbon, methane, etc but they they are affecting a shared resource and imposing costs on others.

Most people agree that a role of government is to regulate behavior that hurts others. That is, you can punch empty air in your house all you want, but if you punch someone in the nose, nearly everyone agrees on regulating that behavior.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 13, 2018, 08:24:06 PM
Speaking of taxes, as others did, I suggest calling it more accurately a pollution tax or externality tax, not a carbon tax. The issue isn't that people are using carbon, methane, etc but they they are affecting a shared resource and imposing costs on others.

Most people agree that a role of government is to regulate behavior that hurts others. That is, you can punch empty air in your house all you want, but if you punch someone in the nose, nearly everyone agrees on regulating that behavior.

I agree with the desirability of explaining why the tax is being imposed. My concern would be that calling a "pollution tax" or "externality tax" implies taxes on a much wider set of activities than a carbon tax. So in trying to get such a tax adopted with one of those names we'd end up spending a lot of time we could be explaining the concept of externalities and the role of government in regulating them instead playing defense against people who'd assume it was a tax on all externalities or all pollution of any sort and have rapidly come up with ridiculous edge case examples of each of those.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 14, 2018, 09:51:56 AM
I was thinking all yesterday on this topic. My mind is a bit blown that the people on MMM forum -- people who are capable of completely reengineering their financial lives with the additional motivation that doing so will be environmentally advantageous and much better than the rat race they were raised to believe in -- would be so fatalistic about climate change.

It would be interesting to survey this population -- is it the case that for all MMM's advice about not driving cars, in fact the bicycle commuting percentage of this readership is no better than in the general population? Has everyone simply realized (as I did long ago -- but not saying I'm better, I still own a ICE car) that you don't have to have a new car, or two cars, but not gone all the way down the rabbit hole to rejecting cars completely?

This thread produced the usual debates about possible culprits for climate change. Was I wrong, I thought last night? Is transportation and energy really *not* the problem? Will the world cool down for my 7 children (just kidding, I only have 1.5) if I just start drinking manufactured almond milk packaged in a plastic-infused cube and fake chicken patties from Trader Joe's?

I don't think so. Every measure I see shows transportation as the largest single cause.

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/car-emissions-and-global-warming#.W8NkKy-ZPBU

https://www.treehugger.com/climate-change/five-radical-steps-we-can-take-fight-climate-change.html

Nothing happens in government if we don't embody it ourselves first. Civil rights happened because of citizen actions setting it in motion. On top of all that, public transportation like beautiful trains and ferries, bikes, ride share... it's all BETTER than driving. The golden age of driving is over. Autonomous pods are not going to save us from ourselves!

BTW @JoshuaSpodek really enjoyed your podcast about traveling the world without flying! Absolutely eye-opening!



Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Hirondelle on October 14, 2018, 10:54:34 AM
@RichCantante I think it really depends on what sources you check and what population you're in. This (https://medium.com/inside-vbat/this-book-might-change-your-life-3229060f3226) link provides some information specific to my country and this lady has calculated that the stuff we buy and meat consumption are the largest factors. Now we drive a lot less compared to the folks in the USA, but we also eat less meat so I can't imagine the difference will flip around completely. She argues the average American uses 4.8 earths  (https://mymodernmet.com/babette-porcelijn-hidden-impact/) (Dutch folks use 3.6), but I can't find the 'biggest impact'-list like it's there for the Dutch situation. The article (and the book as well) also provides a lot of information about how hard it is to see our impact as much of it is hidden in the production process. E.g. Electric cars might be less pollution while used, due to their production process they're only marginally better than regular cars (the more they're driven the bigger the difference).

The impact you cause really depends on the person. When I calculate my personal impact over 50% is caused by air travel as my other 'big things' (car, meat consumption, stuff I buy) are 0 or close to 0. For my mom it would be completely different as she barely flies, but eats tons of meat, buys a lot more stuff and uses a car regularly.

The problem with cars/transportation is that it's hard to make a big change quickly. It's a tough change to move within biking or walking distance to your work OR get a job closer to home, not something you do overnight. Electic cars are also far from perfect (still polluting during production process) and rather expensive for lower income folks. On the other hand, vacationing can be done close to home reducing the number of flights and meat consumption can painlessly be reduced overnight. These are 'easy' changes that people can make NOW, while worker towards other sustainable solutions in the meantime.

@JoshuaSpodek just wanted to say I really enjoy your contributions! Will have a look at your Podcast later. Some of the topics certainly sound inspiring!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 14, 2018, 11:33:40 AM
Thanks @Hirondelle for those links, also very interesting! Cars and driving very important contributors according to that piece!

Yeah, for the reasons you state, I can't find myself getting too excited about electric cars or even electric bikes, though I've looked into it. I was in a bike store and saw this ginormous batteries built into the bike frame and just thought, "this is an improvement?" That said, I've been known to change my opinion so who knows. Currently am most fascinated by public transit, bikes, human-generated kinetic energy capture and even animal-powered vehicles. This from someone who loved cars, has rebuilt engines, loves her stick shift, etc.

Also to go back to the causes question, I think it's cars and transport in America. I also worry that the whole debating of causes itself leads to inaction. If you study social change (it's a field of marketing, among other things), it usually has to be crystallized into a single action -- the anti-smoking movement being a hugely effective one. Similar to what the poster above was saying about not littering in Texas.

Maybe that then goes to the heart of what @JoshuaSpodek is saying which is the actions of leaders change things, not reasons or debating. As MMM has so elegantly illustrated on this website.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on October 14, 2018, 11:33:54 AM
I was thinking all yesterday on this topic. My mind is a bit blown that the people on MMM forum -- people who are capable of completely reengineering their financial lives with the additional motivation that doing so will be environmentally advantageous and much better than the rat race they were raised to believe in -- would be so fatalistic about climate change.

It would be interesting to survey this population -- is it the case that for all MMM's advice about not driving cars, in fact the bicycle commuting percentage of this readership is no better than in the general population? Has everyone simply realized (as I did long ago -- but not saying I'm better, I still own a ICE car) that you don't have to have a new car, or two cars, but not gone all the way down the rabbit hole to rejecting cars completely?


There is a sizeable number of people on this forum who hold to the MMM financial philosophy and worry about the future environment their kids will live in, but still fly their family trans-ocean more than a dozen times in one year for holidays, or fly most weeks on their self-employed business, or regard the annual trans-ocean trip to visit family as non-negotiable.  They might not say so upfront in subject matter threads but the pattern is clear if you start reading case studies and journals.


And it's a significant reason why I'm depressed about climate change: if all the lovely people here are only changing their spending habits to the extent that it is personally advantageous and not inconvenient, what chance of voluntary change in the population at large?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 14, 2018, 11:38:13 AM
I was thinking all yesterday on this topic. My mind is a bit blown that the people on MMM forum -- people who are capable of completely reengineering their financial lives with the additional motivation that doing so will be environmentally advantageous and much better than the rat race they were raised to believe in -- would be so fatalistic about climate change.

FIRE is about making radical changes within your personal locus of control. Avoiding climate change requires radical collective/societal action.

I cannot think of an inherent reason to believe a group of people who are convinced they they, as individuals, are able to reshape their own lives would be more likely than the generally public to think that our whole civilization can work together change course in the face of slow building but existential threats like climate change.

But I'd be interested to know your reasoning for thinking the two would indeed be predictive of each other.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 14, 2018, 11:48:59 AM
The human species is a hierarchical pack animal (not technical terms) similar to ants, termites, bees... We think we're totally independent individuals but we copy each other madly. This website is a perfect example, everyone copying the leader, MMM, and disciples. All "radical change" (for good or bad) among humans starts with the behaviors of very small groups. Hence my belief that a small group of people capable of making the same set of radical changes in their own lives is capable of making further changes when it proves optimal.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 14, 2018, 12:08:52 PM
I disagree with the premise, but if you start out with a view of the world that setting an example is likely to ripple out into the whole of society changing their behavior,* I can certainly understand how you would reach the conclusions that you have. Thanks for explaining!

*Rather than having to come up with effective ways to either convince the average person to change their behavior or convince governments to impose rules that force people to change their behavior.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on October 14, 2018, 12:40:53 PM
I'm getting increasingly tired of theoretical numbers, big reports, life cost analysis, and grand solutions. This is not rocket science. We know what to do, and we have known it for a very long time. Starving polar bears and horror stories about sea level change won't get people to act, and neither will the perfect LCA. Show people how they can make positive changes in their life, and very soon you will get the snowball rolling.

I don't give a fuck why people live in an environmentally friendly way, I only care about end results. It has been showed several times that it is changes in behaviour that drive changes in opinion, not the other way around. We see it with EV drivers in Norway: they buy their Tesla due to economic insentives, but after getting the car they think of themselves as environmentally friendly, and start making other smart choices to make their behaviour fit with how they view themselves: installing solar panels, saving energy at home, and we see some stats that look like they are flying less and biking more.

Stop talking about CO2-e, veganism, and climate footprint, and start talking about:
-how we can stop throwing away so much food. Our parents and grandparents told us not to waste food, but here we are feeding our animals human food instead of letting them graze. Throwing away 40% of the food the farmers work had to produce is downright disgraceful. We need to eat our vegetables, and the leftovers.
-how healthy and nice it is to use a bicycle instead of driving
-how much easier life is when the kids can walk or bike to school and activities, instead of being driven all the time
-how easy and comfortable electric cars are to use, and how much money you can save by charging them at home instead of going to the petrol station
-how much better it is to buy high quality clothes from people who know how to make them, rather than companies who produce bad quality with slave labour
-how uncomfortable and annoying mass tourism is, and how much fun you can have vacationing in your neighbourhood.
-how much time we waste travelling to work meetings, when so much could be done via modern technology. In fact; working from home not only saves time for the employer; a lot of people are more efficient when they are not disturbed by water cooler talk and coffee breaks.
-how simple life becomes when you live in a smaller house; less space to clean, less space to heat and take care of.

And we need to start making fun of the people who make wasteful choices, while bragging about those who make good choices. It needs to become embarrassing to fly everywhere, while those who post photos from their inter-rail across Europe (or roadtrips by electric car in the US) should get more positive attention.

TLDR: 90 % of what we need to do to reduce our CO2 emissions is old fashioned common sense. Show people how to make the right choices, instead of nagging about why they should. And build communities (online or RL) where polluting is something to be ashamed of.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 14, 2018, 01:47:35 PM
This carbon calculator, https://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/calculator, is more granular than others I've used.

Getting down to a sustainable per capita number is difficult. It essentially means no travel and a tiny house and not buying anything. That's if we have economic justice -- if all 7.5B were raised to the same standards as developed countries. This is where total world population matters.*

The good news, for the planet, is that the very poor don't produce many pollutants. Sure, they're burning forests for cooking and ag but it's still a pittance compared to internal combustion engines and coal (coal is the worst(1)).

This is, indeed, where regulations come in. We need to shut down coal power plants and raise CAFE to make gas engines more efficient (and market-force all commuter cars to be solar-powered electric vehicles), and tax the shit out of fuel to reflect its true cost (as mentioned above, it's really a pollution or externality tax -- but maybe for marketing we call it a "road and other maintenance tax").




* "It reports that the goal is likely to be met if cumulative emissions (including the 535 GtC emitted by the end of 2013) do not exceeed 1 trillion tonnes of carbon (PgC)." --> 465 Gt left to produce /40 years/7.5B = 1.55 tons/year/per person
(1) https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 14, 2018, 02:27:03 PM
I was thinking all yesterday on this topic. My mind is a bit blown that the people on MMM forum -- people who are capable of completely reengineering their financial lives with the additional motivation that doing so will be environmentally advantageous and much better than the rat race they were raised to believe in -- would be so fatalistic about climate change.

It would be interesting to survey this population -- is it the case that for all MMM's advice about not driving cars, in fact the bicycle commuting percentage of this readership is no better than in the general population? Has everyone simply realized (as I did long ago -- but not saying I'm better, I still own a ICE car) that you don't have to have a new car, or two cars, but not gone all the way down the rabbit hole to rejecting cars completely?


There is a sizeable number of people on this forum who hold to the MMM financial philosophy and worry about the future environment their kids will live in, but still fly their family trans-ocean more than a dozen times in one year for holidays, or fly most weeks on their self-employed business, or regard the annual trans-ocean trip to visit family as non-negotiable.  They might not say so upfront in subject matter threads but the pattern is clear if you start reading case studies and journals.


And it's a significant reason why I'm depressed about climate change: if all the lovely people here are only changing their spending habits to the extent that it is personally advantageous and not inconvenient, what chance of voluntary change in the population at large?

Yep.  I bike everywhere, eat a plant based diet, and take the train to cities around Europe. But every 12-18 months I fly from Italy to the states and back. I self-impose carbon taxes at $50+ a ton CO2, but even as I see that patreon donation auto-pay Earthling Ed every month, I know this 'tax' is bullshit.

We've made massive changes to our daily habits compared to how we lived 10 years ago. But yeah. That international flight and self-imposed carbon taxes - it's my hypocrisy. 100%.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: A mom on October 14, 2018, 05:15:38 PM
The human species is a hierarchical pack animal (not technical terms) similar to ants, termites, bees... We think we're totally independent individuals but we copy each other madly. This website is a perfect example, everyone copying the leader, MMM, and disciples. All "radical change" (for good or bad) among humans starts with the behaviors of very small groups. Hence my belief that a small group of people capable of making the same set of radical changes in their own lives is capable of making further changes when it proves optimal.

Yes. This. This. This.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on October 14, 2018, 06:28:02 PM
I wasn't actually thinking of you, Malaysia41: there are others who are considerably worse.  Their school age children have probably already flown more miles than I have in my lifetime - I didn't get on a plane until I was 24 and due to environmental concerns have had exactly one 1 hour of flying in the last 20 years, when due to flooding of road and rail (ironic, huh) it was my only way to get to a 100th birthday party.  And I eat meat only once a year at Christmas dinner, although there is locally caught fish and shellfish in my diet.  I do drive a couple of thousand miles a year in my small car, so there's that, I suppose.  There are a lot of people like me quietly leading modest lives for limited financial and environmental cost.  But there are far too many who either don't care at all or care only to the extent that it doesn't get in the way of what they want to do.  Would I like to see more of the world?  Sure.  Could I afford it?  Yes, I have the time and money to do a round the world trip every year for the rest of my life.  But I don't need to and won't do it.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 14, 2018, 09:42:03 PM
Is transportation and energy really *not* the problem? [...]

I don't think so. Every measure I see shows transportation as the largest single cause.

You get some varying figures, but it's a categorisation problem. For example, if we here in temperate Victoria have mangoes from tropical Queensland in our winter, are the emissions due to their transport counted as "transport" or as "agriculture"?

I don't worry much about that. I'm not writing papers about statistics or determining government policy. I do what I can do. Compared to the typical Western middle-class lifestyle, in rough order of impact (compared to the average; this may or may not be any individual's wasteful areas) the changes would be,

1. Don't fly in aircraft at all.
2. Use cool drinks and fans not airconditioning, jumpers and hot drinks not heating, hang washing out to dry, change to CFLs/LEDs, and pull plugs out on appliances not in use
3. Bye-bye cars: for a journey under 5km, walk. Under 15km, bike. Over that, public transport.
4. Consume mainly seasonal and local fresh fruit and vegies, grains and legumes, avoid processed containerised food, and reduce meat consumption to under 12kg/year (0.25kg/week)
5. For consumer goods, borrow rather than buy, secondhand rather than new
6. Buy electrical power from other sources preferring in order: wind, geothermal, solar, hydroelectric, landfill gas or natural gas, waste burning, bagasse. Don't even think about nuclear or coal.
7. If available, use coppiced wood for heating/cooking, otherwise use that wind powered electricity, or if that's not available, use natural gas

All these changes will improve your financial position as you're spending less time. They'll improve your physical health as you eat better food and move your body more. So even if you don't think climate change is an issue (or if you're well-off enough to avoid its effects by moving to the right place and turning on the AC) they're all good things to do. Not everyone can do all of these things, but almost everyone can do some of them.

And yes, Rich, I suspect the "ditch the car and cycle" is the least popular and least-tried of MMM's advice.


Quote from: former player
And it's a significant reason why I'm depressed about climate change: if all the lovely people here are only changing their spending habits to the extent that it is personally advantageous and not inconvenient, what chance of voluntary change in the population at large?

I've lost it now, but Rebecca Solnik had a wonderful essay on "revolution by increments," where she said something like, Madame Speaker, Bob and his boyfriend... did those words make you jump? Probably not - but your reaction in 1985 might have been different, and certainly would have been in 1955. The flatness of their register shows the change that has happened in the last generation. And this is how genuine social change happens, small changes add up over time and become big change.

For example, here in Australia it used to be only crazy hippies who had solar panels, now they're everywhere. Or consider smoking: when I was in the army in the early 90s, if you didn't smoke you were considered a homosexual, and being homosexual was very, very bad. Now smoking is considered low-class and crass, the habit of homeless and lifelong unemployed, and now not only nobody cares if you're homosexual, they can get married, too. So change does happen, not overnight but by increments.

As well, fossil fuels are running short. So even if burning coal gave us vitamin C, we'd eventually have to give up on it anyway, it just becomes too much of a hassle compared to other ways of doing things. So change will actually happen. Now, whether change happens quickly enough to avoid the nastier possibilities of climate change is another question. But change will happen, because it has to. That doesn't mean we can't hurry it along, of course. Some bloke had to be the first one to stop smoking and say "yeah, so I'm a poofter, so what?" and make the radical seem ordinary.


http://rebeccasolnit.net/essay/hope-is-a​n-embrace-of-the-unknown​-rebecca-solnit-on-living-in-dark-times/
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 14, 2018, 10:59:38 PM
Just to show I too am a hypocrite I travelled across an ocean for the first time in my adult life by airplane this year (but I did look into getting there by boat -- also, it was for work, not that that makes it better). But to the point about culture change, it was only in the last year that I even *thought* about airplane travel as a category of waste or even CO2 emission. I suspect a lot of people are like that. Just like car=freedom, maybe plane=vacation to most of us.

Going back to the great links, the granular CO2 tracker site from UC Berkeley mentioned above (https://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/calculator) is excellent because it shows what's going on in your area. In fact it comes to some surprising results around dense urban areas, and also shows huge variation due to income. Running through it I can boast that it said we were 55% better than most households in our zip code with our income (probably thanks to having the one car and not driving it much). But there was much we could do to reduce it, and yes, reducing meat eating was on the list. Overall, transportation was the biggest greenhouse gas contributor in my part of the US. However, air travel was way less than auto travel as a contributor in my own family. Eliminating all car travel according to this tracker would eliminate the vast majority of our CO2 emission as a family of four, even with the air travel.

This particular tracker has an API that makes me wonder if someone could create apps that would help disseminate this info. Like Dumb Ways To Die, which was a popular game that was created in order to reduce train deaths.

Another useful link I found from the Union of Concerned Scientists: https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles. This goal of theirs of cutting US oil in half is a few years old. I'm afraid to ask if any progress has been made...

This was good too: Seven Things You Should Know About the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report and its Policy Implications
https://blog.ucsusa.org/rachel-cleetus/seven-things-ipcc2018

"Here in the United States, it is a time of deep concern with the Trump administration rolling back every national climate policy, stepping away from the Paris Agreement, and working on every front to undermine international cooperation. It’s going to be up to states, cities, tribal communities, faith leaders, labor and environmental justice leaders, youth groups—ordinary Americans from all walks of life—to pick up the baton and do our part to contribute to global efforts to limit climate change."
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: BookLoverL on October 15, 2018, 01:44:18 AM
Climate change, overpopulation, and resource depletion are all problems that will eventually combine to bring about the end of civilisation as we know it (especially for younger people such as myself who can't remember, say, a life before computers). Ideally, the whole world would be putting into place some kind of plan for adaptation, but, being realistic, we are never going to get the entire world or even the whole of a single country to line up on this. So what's left is taking steps to adapt as individuals and communities.

Even if we can't single-handedly stop climate change by giving up flying, if your personal lifestyle is sustainable, that's still better for you because you'll have made the changes you needed to make before any sort of crisis hits, which means that by the time a crisis does come, you'll be able to cope with it far better than people who are still reliant on their planes, SUVs, and high-powered air-con/heating systems. I gave up flying myself as soon as I realised the severity of the situation.

Individually:
-try and buy more local and seasonal food, including growing it yourself in a sustainable way (not the way that depletes the topsoil, preferably)
-avoid flying
-take public transport for long journeys whenever possible
-don't drive to anywhere that you could walk to in half an hour
-if it's safe to cycle in your area, don't drive to anywhere you could cycle to in half an hour
-those last two things could be stretched to up to an hour's journey length for someone who is fitter/less busy
-if a journey would require a car, consider whether it's even necessary for you to make it
-avoid buying plastic tat, unless it's made out of recycled stuff
-try and learn older, more sustainable methods of doing everyday tasks, even if you don't use them every day at the moment
-encourage people in your community who you have influence with to also take action

Politically, if we could get enough politicians to actually listen, here are some ideas I would go for:
-tax on using new non-sustainable raw materials
-tax on pollution (of any kind, not just carbon)
-construction of better public transport systems and cycle routes (where by better, I mean more frequent and going to more small places, not just a faster way of going between places that are already well served *cough*HS2*cough*)
-no child benefit beyond the first 2 kids
-maybe even a 2-child policy as similar to the one-child policy that China had, though this is harsher
-free contraception and good quality sex ed for everyone
-not trying to extend the life of every single diseased person quite so hard when that means keeping them on life support in a hospital bed for years at a time, still supplying with nutrients etc, when actually they have basically no quality of life left any more (this one is probably also controversial, and I should note that I'm not advocating stopping care for things that could be fixed quickly)
-more effort to reduce obesity (often obese people could be eating twice as much per day as people in healthy BMI range)
-larger and better designated nature reserves where human interference is forbidden, INCLUDING marine nature reserves, to allow natural populations of creatures to have a space to recover
-I could probably think of more stuff here, maybe later

Regarding overpopulation, the only humane way I can see of reducing the population is for everyone to have 2 or less children, which is at or below replacement rate. (My concern for overpopulation is global, including here in the UK - we import something like 40% of our food, last I heard.) But since this is unlikely to be achieved without strict, politically unpopular measures, nature will likely reduce the population for us, using her old standbys of the Four Horsemen, War, Famine, and Pestilence, followed closely by Death.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: waltworks on October 15, 2018, 08:27:14 AM
I know a lot of people who are very environmentally conscious - they are vegan/vegetarian, eat lots of local food, grow their own, ride bikes everywhere, and keep their houses cold in winter/hot in summer.

They also tend to drive giant Mercedes sprinter vans 1000s of miles to go on climbing/mountain biking/kayaking/ski trips, fly to Hokkaido to ski deep powder or HI to surf, etc.

I have a good friend who is a passive solar architect who brought a super cool little wood-fired stove to heat up *coffee* (flown to him from around the world) after driving to meet me in Moab in his sprinter (400 miles from his home). He refused to use my propane-fueled camping stove because he felt the environmental impact was too high.

If those people (and mean us/me as well) aren't actually serious about reducing their impact (and being realistic, they're not - they're doing stuff they like to do to feel good, then blowing it all up in an instant to go do their favorite things somewhere else) then good luck with the rest of the "normal" world.

Seriously, adaptation (on a personal level as well as societal) and geoengineering are what I am thinking about at this point. The ship sailed long ago on cutting emissions. We are going to live in a world with a much higher temperature and very different climate than we have now. Time to start planning for that.

-W
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 15, 2018, 08:31:22 AM
I know a lot of people who are very environmentally conscious - they are vegan/vegetarian, eat lots of local food, grow their own, ride bikes everywhere, and keep their houses cold in winter/hot in summer.

They also tend to drive giant Mercedes sprinter vans 1000s of miles to go on climbing/mountain biking/kayaking/ski trips, fly to Hokkaido to ski deep powder or HI to surf, etc.

I have a good friend who is a passive solar architect who brought a super cool little wood-fired stove to heat up *coffee* (flown to him from around the world) after driving to meet me in Moab in his sprinter (400 miles from his home). He refused to use my propane-fueled camping stove because he felt the environmental impact was too high.

If those people (and mean us/me as well) aren't actually serious about reducing their impact (and being realistic, they're not - they're doing stuff they like to do to feel good, then blowing it all up in an instant to go do their favorite things somewhere else) then good luck with the rest of the "normal" world.

Seriously, adaptation (on a personal level as well as societal) and geoengineering are what I am thinking about at this point. The ship sailed long ago on cutting emissions. We are going to live in a world with a much higher temperature and very different climate than we have now. Time to start planning for that.

-W

Agreed. Capitalism at this point has such a hold on us that most people's idea of being environmentally friendly involves purchasing things. It seems most people can't conceive of any other way to "do" environmentalism. And the companies that trade in sustainable products know that, and profit from it.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 15, 2018, 08:33:07 AM

Even if we can't single-handedly stop climate change by giving up flying, if your personal lifestyle is sustainable, that's still better for you because you'll have made the changes you needed to make before any sort of crisis hits, which means that by the time a crisis does come, you'll be able to cope with it far better than people who are still reliant on their planes, SUVs, and high-powered air-con/heating systems. I gave up flying myself as soon as I realised the severity of the situation.


Collapse Now and Avoid the Rush (https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Now-Avoid-Rush-Archdruid-ebook/dp/B00U37BS0G)

^ this book explores this idea further. Really helped me think through our predicament when I began truly contemplating it.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 15, 2018, 08:48:44 AM
I know a lot of people who are very environmentally conscious - they are vegan/vegetarian, eat lots of local food, grow their own, ride bikes everywhere, and keep their houses cold in winter/hot in summer.

They also tend to drive giant Mercedes sprinter vans 1000s of miles to go on climbing/mountain biking/kayaking/ski trips, fly to Hokkaido to ski deep powder or HI to surf, etc.

I have a good friend who is a passive solar architect who brought a super cool little wood-fired stove to heat up *coffee* (flown to him from around the world) after driving to meet me in Moab in his sprinter (400 miles from his home). He refused to use my propane-fueled camping stove because he felt the environmental impact was too high.

If those people (and mean us/me as well) aren't actually serious about reducing their impact (and being realistic, they're not - they're doing stuff they like to do to feel good, then blowing it all up in an instant to go do their favorite things somewhere else) then good luck with the rest of the "normal" world.

Seriously, adaptation (on a personal level as well as societal) and geoengineering are what I am thinking about at this point. The ship sailed long ago on cutting emissions. We are going to live in a world with a much higher temperature and very different climate than we have now. Time to start planning for that.

-W

Agreed. Capitalism at this point has such a hold on us that most people's idea of being environmentally friendly involves purchasing things. It seems most people can't conceive of any other way to "do" environmentalism. And the companies that trade in sustainable products know that, and profit from it.

The thing is, it's very hard as an individual to manage to do everything properly.  There are a billion things that have a negative environmental impact, it's easy to aim for some of the simple to see ones and very hard to catch all the hidden ones.  There's also overload . . . if you make your whole life about trying to be green, you're going to get ever diminishing returns.  Having a zillion people trying to individually puzzle out all of this is incredibly inefficient.  This is really an area where governments need to take a lead in helping people.  There are many small areas where we can give people a bit of a push to do the right thing:

Regulation of utilities needs to happen so that flat rate charges disappear from bills.  You should pay based solely on usage if we want to encourage conservation.  (Currently, I pay fixed costs on my water, electricity, and gas bills that are as much or significantly exceed my usage most months . . . so why should I conserve?)

Public transit construction needs to take priority over highway and roads development.  Cycling infrastructure should be created, even if it means reducing the number of lanes available for automobiles.

Building codes can be changed to make every new house and apartment significantly more energy efficient through materials, and design.

Travel by extremely polluting means should be taxed heavily.  These taxes should be invested into alternative energy generation.

etc.


That's why it's so painful to watch governments not only turn their backs on the idea of leadership, but actively work in the opposite direction.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 15, 2018, 08:49:54 AM
I know a lot of people who are very environmentally conscious - they are vegan/vegetarian, eat lots of local food, grow their own, ride bikes everywhere, and keep their houses cold in winter/hot in summer.

They also tend to drive giant Mercedes sprinter vans 1000s of miles to go on climbing/mountain biking/kayaking/ski trips, fly to Hokkaido to ski deep powder or HI to surf, etc.

I have a good friend who is a passive solar architect who brought a super cool little wood-fired stove to heat up *coffee* (flown to him from around the world) after driving to meet me in Moab in his sprinter (400 miles from his home). He refused to use my propane-fueled camping stove because he felt the environmental impact was too high.

If those people (and mean us/me as well) aren't actually serious about reducing their impact (and being realistic, they're not - they're doing stuff they like to do to feel good, then blowing it all up in an instant to go do their favorite things somewhere else) then good luck with the rest of the "normal" world.

Seriously, adaptation (on a personal level as well as societal) and geoengineering are what I am thinking about at this point. The ship sailed long ago on cutting emissions. We are going to live in a world with a much higher temperature and very different climate than we have now. Time to start planning for that.

-W

Agreed. Capitalism at this point has such a hold on us that most people's idea of being environmentally friendly involves purchasing things. It seems most people can't conceive of any other way to "do" environmentalism. And the companies that trade in sustainable products know that, and profit from it.

The thing is, it's very hard as an individual to manage to do everything properly.  There are a billion things that have a negative environmental impact, it's easy to aim for some of the simple to see ones and very hard to catch all the hidden ones.  There's also overload . . . if you make your whole life about trying to be green, you're going to get ever diminishing returns.  Having a zillion people trying to individually puzzle out all of this is incredibly inefficient.  This is really an area where governments need to take a lead in helping people.  There are many small areas where we can give people a bit of a push to do the right thing:

Regulation of utilities needs to happen so that flat rate charges disappear from bills.  You should pay based solely on usage if we want to encourage conservation.  (Currently, I pay fixed costs on my water, electricity, and gas bills that are as much or significantly exceed my usage most months . . . so why should I conserve?)

Public transit construction needs to take priority over highway and roads development.  Cycling infrastructure should be created, even if it means reducing the number of lanes available for automobiles.

Building codes can be changed to make every new house and apartment significantly more energy efficient through materials, and design.

Travel by extremely polluting means should be taxed heavily.  These taxes should be invested into alternative energy generation.

etc.


That's why it's so painful to watch governments not only turn their backs on the idea of leadership, but actively work in the opposite direction.

I completely agree.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: waltworks on October 15, 2018, 08:57:39 AM
I agree that all those things should happen, and I spend a lot of time advocating for them and voting for candidates who are at least vaguely interested in environmental issues.

I also recognize that 20 years of that kind of behavior on my part (and many others) has resulted in exactly zero results. In fact one could argue we've made things worse, given that the focus has been entirely on conservation and basically zero on adaptation. What's the saying about insanity being doing the same thing again and again and expecting a new result?

I spend a lot of time now thinking about where is the safest place to live for my family. I talk to people I know in the prepper/SHTF community and they don't seem so crazy anymore. What a world.

-W
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 15, 2018, 09:24:23 AM
Even if you make the most environmentally ethical choices possible, in the western world, your carbon footprint is still ~3x what's arguably sustainable

Quote
But the "floor" below which nobody in the U.S. can reach, no matter a person's energy choices, turned out to be 8.5 tons, the class found. That was the emissions calculated for a homeless person who ate in soup kitchens and slept in homeless shelters.

-http://news.mit.edu/2008/footprint-tt0416
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 15, 2018, 09:26:05 AM
OK, thanks again for more interesting links like the Druid guy. Never heard of that, cool. But here this convo goes again devolving to pessimism (perhaps it only ever attracted pessimists in the first place -- I know I've been avoiding thinking heavily about climate change for a long time).

1. Too much info -> inaction
2. Flying too much is a rich people problem, driving too much is an everyone problem
3. Driving cars causes more CO2 emission than most other practices, even for those who also fly
4. If everyone reduced or eliminated driving they would see improvements in health, happiness, congestion, noise, danger + reduce CO2
5. Top 100 polluting companies contribute 75% of all greenhouse gases, and driving less would cause those companies to leave more carbon in the ground
6. Progress has already been made toward electric vehicles, and automakers are already ending manufacture of the ICE car in just a few years
7. Just as smoking was once viewed as we now view coffee as a healthy pick-me-up, it now carries a connotation of ill health and bad habit
8. Smoking cessation has vastly succeeded and so can driving cessation
9. Driving cessation won't happen overnight but already behaviorally driving is reduced among teens and young adults and no longer worshipped
10. Bicycle riding in many areas is rising, and kids and teens are back into bike culture with scraper bikes and tricks
11. The greatest risk is not that we won't do the right thing, it is that we won't do ANYTHING to stop CO2 emissions
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 09:33:00 AM
Re: having 3x the footprint as an individual regardless of effort, that is a 10 year old experiment with no shared methodology, so I am wondering how it holds up today. It also makes the statement that some choices wouldn't be palatable to most Americans, which addresses the issue of social change.

Of course, individual effort alone is not enough to account for fixing the problem alone, but it may make change possible while we move with slower systems (municipalities, states, etc.), so it doesn't have to be perfect, I guess.

I think it's important to note that while we have known for a while what to do, it's only now that certain technologies are economically feasible. Re: flight, this is also an area where I am pretty darn hypocritical. I guess we can only hope for algae fueled airplanes (https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-reduce-your-impact-on-the-environment-according-to-science-2018-9) at some time if we enjoy travel *and* want to stay environmentally friendly.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 15, 2018, 09:33:42 AM
Collapse Now and Avoid the Rush (https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Now-Avoid-Rush-Archdruid-ebook/dp/B00U37BS0G)

^ this book explores this idea further. Really helped me think through our predicament when I began truly contemplating it.

Sounds interesting. I've ordered a (digital) copy.

9. Driving cessation won't happen overnight but already behaviorally it is reduced among teens and young adults
10. Bicycle riding in many areas is rising, and kids and teens are back into bike culture with scraper bikes and tricks

Pessimistic counterpoint: bicycle commuting in the USA increased a lot year over year through 2014 but as been declining since then.* The increase coincided with years of high(er) gas prices and the decrease with a significant drop in the price of gasoline in the USA from 3-something a gallon to 2-something a gallon.

If you give people strong economic signals, they will indeed change their behavior, but trying to change behavior through culture alone without legal or economic signals to back it up is a lot harder, and doesn't appear to be working for bicycling at the moment (although it is certainly possible I will be proven wrong when the current generation of teenagers become adults).

*Source: http://www.davemabe.com/2018/09/30/commuting-by-bicycle-is-down/
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 15, 2018, 09:44:21 AM
Even if you make the most environmentally ethical choices possible, in the western world, your carbon footprint is still ~3x what's arguably sustainable

Quote
But the "floor" below which nobody in the U.S. can reach, no matter a person's energy choices, turned out to be 8.5 tons, the class found. That was the emissions calculated for a homeless person who ate in soup kitchens and slept in homeless shelters.

-http://news.mit.edu/2008/footprint-tt0416

I feel that a Swiftian solution may help us here.  What if we eat the homeless?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: BookLoverL on October 15, 2018, 09:46:10 AM

Even if we can't single-handedly stop climate change by giving up flying, if your personal lifestyle is sustainable, that's still better for you because you'll have made the changes you needed to make before any sort of crisis hits, which means that by the time a crisis does come, you'll be able to cope with it far better than people who are still reliant on their planes, SUVs, and high-powered air-con/heating systems. I gave up flying myself as soon as I realised the severity of the situation.


Collapse Now and Avoid the Rush (https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Now-Avoid-Rush-Archdruid-ebook/dp/B00U37BS0G)

^ this book explores this idea further. Really helped me think through our predicament when I began truly contemplating it.


Oh, look. It's a link to a book by one of my favourite ever bloggers. ;)

Quality writer, would recommend.

The thing that usually gets missed with the whole argument of "politicians won't do anything, we should all individually be doing all this!" vs. "those things have no effect, we need to make the politicians do this!" is that both individual AND political action is needed in order to have a significant impact, and a lot of the time arguments for one have the effect of dissuading people from doing the other, when really the world would benefit most from people doing both.

I know a lot of people who are very environmentally conscious - they are vegan/vegetarian, eat lots of local food, grow their own, ride bikes everywhere, and keep their houses cold in winter/hot in summer.

They also tend to drive giant Mercedes sprinter vans 1000s of miles to go on climbing/mountain biking/kayaking/ski trips, fly to Hokkaido to ski deep powder or HI to surf, etc.

I have a good friend who is a passive solar architect who brought a super cool little wood-fired stove to heat up *coffee* (flown to him from around the world) after driving to meet me in Moab in his sprinter (400 miles from his home). He refused to use my propane-fueled camping stove because he felt the environmental impact was too high.

If those people (and mean us/me as well) aren't actually serious about reducing their impact (and being realistic, they're not - they're doing stuff they like to do to feel good, then blowing it all up in an instant to go do their favorite things somewhere else) then good luck with the rest of the "normal" world.

Seriously, adaptation (on a personal level as well as societal) and geoengineering are what I am thinking about at this point. The ship sailed long ago on cutting emissions. We are going to live in a world with a much higher temperature and very different climate than we have now. Time to start planning for that.

-W

I agree that we are well beyond "reversing the effect" and into "adapt to what's coming". And the people who claim to be eco-friendly while still flying all over the place and refusing to reduce their big-ticket fossil fuel items like car use really annoy me. They're so hypocritical. None of us are perfect, but if someone can't see the problem with flying and driving everywhere, I'm confused as to how they can actually consider themselves eco-friendly.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 15, 2018, 09:57:38 AM
I look at all the train tracks that have been turned into hiking trails, and hope they turn back into train tracks.  Where I live there used to be trains to Ottawa and Montreal on a regular basis, commuter trains really, now those tracks are trails, and everyone is in a car driving the 417.   So much more efficient to drive/bike/walk to the train station, and be able to do things on the work commute, instead of driving.  Plus less parking needed in the destinations.  And the new engines are quite efficient, certainly more efficient than all those single occupant cars.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 15, 2018, 10:03:03 AM
Yo, John Michael Greer (the blogger Druid guy referred to above) is FANTASTIC. What a gem. MMM forum has led to more interesting discoveries than any other source on the Internet. Thanks.

https://www.ecosophia.net/
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on October 15, 2018, 10:07:00 AM
Yeah @RetiredAt63, perhaps the golden age of driving is over but wouldn't a return to the golden age of trains be GRAND!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 15, 2018, 10:33:50 AM
Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.

I have a friend who makes this argument. He is childless and his hobby is flying aircraft. It is perhaps possible that this is a self-serving argument.

It doesn't matter if what we do has an impact or not. "It is not a man's duty, as a matter of course, to devote himself to the eradication of any, even the most enormous wrong; he may still properly have other concerns to engage him; but it is his duty, at least, to wash his hands of it, and, if he gives it no thought longer, not to give it practically his support." - your countryman Henry David Thoreau.


Now, what sort of lifestyle might we choose if we wished to wash our hands of personal contribution to climate change, and not to give it practically our support? I would suggest that many of the things we could do are things which would also help our finances and our personal health: stop flying, home and work closer to each-other and walk and cycle rather than drive, eat less junk food and meat, use less natural gas and electricity, and so on. If you care only about finances, these are all good things to do; if you care only about health, these are all good things to do; and if you care only about the environment, these are all good things to do.

Further, once you consider the environment of other countries, and how places like China have worse environmental practices than most of the West, and then consider also the collapse of manufacturing in the West, "buy local" is both an environmentalist and a patriotic maxim.

I'm old-fashioned. I believe: duty first. Whether or not I pay my taxes, do jury duty or military or civilian service of some kind, whether I speak well of my wife behind her back or not, whether or not I call people by racial epithets when out of their hearing, the practical impact of these things is almost zero. Nonetheless an adult in a civilised society has duties. A duty is something which whether you like it or not and whether it makes a difference or not you simply must do. A society is nothing but an accumulation of kept promises and duties met.

Now, some may reply that we as humans have no duties to one another. And I would answer that this is indeed a popular point of view, and explains much of the world's problems now, but I wash my hands of such an idea, and do not give it practically my support.

+1 Great post.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 15, 2018, 10:59:32 AM
Yeah @RetiredAt63, perhaps the golden age of driving is over but wouldn't a return to the golden age of trains be GRAND!

It would be, I'm not holding my breath.
 
I have taken Via Rail from Ottawa to Toronto and I know people who have taken Via from Montreal to Toronto, instead of flying.  Via shunts passenger trains to the sides for freight trains, they never arrive on time.  Seats are OK for short trips, but uncomfortable for 5 hours.  Bonuses, no security checks, you can walk up and down the aisles all you want, nice scenery.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 11:31:04 AM
I'm not holding my breath either. I can get to my hometown to visit family for free with easily acquired airline points in 2 hours versus paying almost $1000 for a 17 hour trip there. And isn't Amtrak subsidized? Why is it still garbage?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 15, 2018, 11:43:36 AM
I'm not holding my breath either. I can get to my hometown to visit family for free with easily acquired airline points in 2 hours versus paying almost $1000 for a 17 hour trip there. And isn't Amtrak subsidized? Why is it still garbage?

Low ridership with fixed infrastructure cost = noncompetitive prices and terrible schedules.

Noncompetitively high prices and terrible schedules = lower ridership.

One of the college towns I visit has an amtrack stop right in town, but the only train that comes through does so sometime between 1-3 AM each day.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 11:47:55 AM
I'm not holding my breath either. I can get to my hometown to visit family for free with easily acquired airline points in 2 hours versus paying almost $1000 for a 17 hour trip there. And isn't Amtrak subsidized? Why is it still garbage?

Low ridership with fixed infrastructure cost = noncompetitive prices and terrible schedules.

Noncompetitively high prices and terrible schedules = lower ridership.

One of the college towns I visit has an amtrack stop right in town, but the only train that comes through does so sometime between 1-3 AM each day.

SIGH. Alright. This group as my witness, when my Southwest points dry up, I'll use the damn Amtrak garbage train exclusively. Gotta be part of the solution if I'm going to panic about the outcome. I can work remotely pretty much whenever I want, so there's really no excuse.

But hey, FIRE folk probably have no real excuse, since time is limitless, right? ;)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 15, 2018, 11:50:33 AM
But hey, FIRE folk probably have no real excuse, since time is limitless, right? ;)

I figure that I could largely eschew travel by means other than bike once retired.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 15, 2018, 11:55:15 AM
SIGH. Alright. This group as my witness, when my Southwest points dry up, I'll use the damn Amtrak garbage train exclusively. Gotta be part of the solution if I'm going to panic about the outcome. I can work remotely pretty much whenever I want, so there's really no excuse.

You're a better person than I, but good for you!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 11:55:33 AM
But hey, FIRE folk probably have no real excuse, since time is limitless, right? ;)

I figure that I could largely eschew travel by means other than bike once retired.

Traveling cross country, at least in US, sounds hellacious and unrealistic for families. I do think that people being able to see different parts of the world is an awesome thing and there should be a conscious effort to create opportunities for that!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 11:56:59 AM
SIGH. Alright. This group as my witness, when my Southwest points dry up, I'll use the damn Amtrak garbage train exclusively. Gotta be part of the solution if I'm going to panic about the outcome. I can work remotely pretty much whenever I want, so there's really no excuse.

You're a better person than I, but good for you!

;) Tell me that once I've actually followed through on this idealism.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 15, 2018, 12:10:32 PM
My one round trip on Via compared to flying - Via rail was less expensive but so much slower, even looking at the time spent getting to the airport early.  Really the railway companies seem to be putting most of their effort into freight.

OT, time is just as valuable to those of us who are retired.  Via rail certainly did not encourage to spend more time with them.     
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: PoutineLover on October 15, 2018, 12:18:26 PM
I think all drives under 6 hours could be easily replaced by fast trains, since those are usually 1 hour flights but with all the transit time and security lines etc. involved in flying you end up spending 4 hours getting there anyway. Unfortunately in Canada at least, the trains have terrible schedules, cost as much as flying, and take way too long because it's single track and freight has priority. My family is scattered around the country and flying is the only way I can see them in my limited vacation time. If flying was limited to flights that were not feasible by train (across oceans or countries only) then we could significantly reduce airline greenhouse gas emissions. A robust and efficient high speed electric train system would be a great investment that would create a lot more jobs than bringing back coal..
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 15, 2018, 12:18:56 PM
My one round trip on Via compared to flying - Via rail was less expensive but so much slower, even looking at the time spent getting to the airport early.  Really the railway companies seem to be putting most of their effort into freight.

OT, time is just as valuable to those of us who are retired.  Via rail certainly did not encourage to spend more time with them.     

By comparison, passenger rail in China is amazing. Cheaper than flying, you have a lot more space than in an airplane seat, getting through security isn't nearly as bad as the airport, and the trains run at something like 180 mph, which is still substantially slower than planes, but for flights under ~3 hours it ends up being a wash because you save enough time on security and boarding/deboarding to make up for the longer time in transit.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: norabird on October 15, 2018, 12:26:35 PM
Better rail would absolutely cut down on my flying. I know I could cut it down simply by choosing not to do it but our lack of infrastructure is a real issue.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 15, 2018, 12:27:55 PM
Population is the problem, not mankind's contribution to carbon dioxide in the air.

I have a friend who makes this argument. He is childless and his hobby is flying aircraft. It is perhaps possible that this is a self-serving argument.

It doesn't matter if what we do has an impact or not. "It is not a man's duty, as a matter of course, to devote himself to the eradication of any, even the most enormous wrong; he may still properly have other concerns to engage him; but it is his duty, at least, to wash his hands of it, and, if he gives it no thought longer, not to give it practically his support." - your countryman Henry David Thoreau.


Now, what sort of lifestyle might we choose if we wished to wash our hands of personal contribution to climate change, and not to give it practically our support? I would suggest that many of the things we could do are things which would also help our finances and our personal health: stop flying, home and work closer to each-other and walk and cycle rather than drive, eat less junk food and meat, use less natural gas and electricity, and so on. If you care only about finances, these are all good things to do; if you care only about health, these are all good things to do; and if you care only about the environment, these are all good things to do.

Further, once you consider the environment of other countries, and how places like China have worse environmental practices than most of the West, and then consider also the collapse of manufacturing in the West, "buy local" is both an environmentalist and a patriotic maxim.

I'm old-fashioned. I believe: duty first. Whether or not I pay my taxes, do jury duty or military or civilian service of some kind, whether I speak well of my wife behind her back or not, whether or not I call people by racial epithets when out of their hearing, the practical impact of these things is almost zero. Nonetheless an adult in a civilised society has duties. A duty is something which whether you like it or not and whether it makes a difference or not you simply must do. A society is nothing but an accumulation of kept promises and duties met.

Now, some may reply that we as humans have no duties to one another. And I would answer that this is indeed a popular point of view, and explains much of the world's problems now, but I wash my hands of such an idea, and do not give it practically my support.

Agree completely.  But, it still doesn't change the equation.  The population size is what drives CO2 emissions.  We can, however, do our best to reduce it on an individual level.  I just don't think it will be enough.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Hirondelle on October 15, 2018, 12:40:03 PM
My one round trip on Via compared to flying - Via rail was less expensive but so much slower, even looking at the time spent getting to the airport early.  Really the railway companies seem to be putting most of their effort into freight.

OT, time is just as valuable to those of us who are retired.  Via rail certainly did not encourage to spend more time with them.     

By comparison, passenger rail in China is amazing. Cheaper than flying, you have a lot more space than in an airplane seat, getting through security isn't nearly as bad as the airport, and the trains run at something like 180 mph, which is still substantially slower than planes, but for flights under ~3 hours it ends up being a wash because you save enough time on security and boarding/deboarding to make up for the longer time in transit.

Yes, China's train system is great! Japan too. And it's not just China and Japan, several 'third world countries' like Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia (just Java though) actually have very decent train systems that the USA and Canada can (and should) be jealous of. Trains are quite an investment though so changes like that will take forever. It's frustrating to see how many cities say 'there's no demand for trains, the ones that are running are near empty' - well they're empty because they're extremely unconvenient! If there's a decent connection that beats other options people will use it. In Europe there's plans now to improve the international train options. Currently Amsterdam has a high-speed connection with Brussels, Paris and London, but Berlin still takes a whole 6 hours while it could be reduced to 3-4 if governments were willing to adjust schedules of other trains. This could greatly reduce the number of short flights.

On the positive side; one of Europe's most popular bus companies (Flixbus) for long distance travel is expanding to the USA and already covering quite a bunch of spots on the west coast. They're dirt cheap so especially for single people hard to beat their prices with a car. They're also relatively green/environmentally friendly so I hope they'll expand and a bus-based roadtrip through the USA might suddenly sound a lot nicer again :). Now just find a green way to cross the atlantic..
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 12:41:23 PM
Apparently alternative  jet fuel is in production and use in the US: https://www.energy.ca.gov/transportation/tour_additional/altair/index.html

United Airlines is doing a 3 year experiment with them. That's pretty exciting!

I am TOTALLY sad about how crappy train travel is. It could be so much fun!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: YevKassem on October 15, 2018, 12:46:13 PM
I read through this thread and am left scratching my head.  For those who truly believe that climate change is man-made and that we should do everything in our power to prevent/slow/stop it, how can you justify early retirement?  Driving and flying less, eating less meat, and having fewer kids is all well and good, but if we really, truly want to do all we can to help, shouldn't we either:  a) devote our lives to a job that tries to find solutions to the dire state that we are in or b) make as much money as possible and donate it all to causes that can help the situation? 

I get that retiring early can make an impact by reducing the need for transportation, but it seems to me that not retiring and working until the day we die to solve some of these problems (or earn more money and pay other people to do it) would have a far greater impact.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on October 15, 2018, 12:47:26 PM
In a recent coffee chat with my boss her upcoming vacation by plane. When challenged about why she couldn't take the train, the excuse was limited vacation days. But after some raised eyebrows, she did admit she could work on the train. Now the plan/challenge will be to convince the bosses higher up that all/most employees should be offered some flexible time the first couple of days of the summer vacation, if they travel by train (and work) rather than fly.

Imagine if we could convince more companies to let people work from home? If only those who really had to be present at their workplace (medical personell, bus drivers, etc) commuted, while the rest of us worked from home or smaller hubs. Not only would we get rid of a lot of travels, but we would need much fewer office buildings, with their energy use and occupied space.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: YevKassem on October 15, 2018, 12:49:33 PM


Imagine if we could convince more companies to let people work from home? If only those who really had to be present at their workplace (medical personell, bus drivers, etc) commuted, while the rest of us worked from home or smaller hubs. Not only would we get rid of a lot of travels, but we would need much fewer office buildings, with their energy use and occupied space.




I think this is one of the most impactful things we can do.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 12:51:10 PM
I read through this thread and am left scratching my head.  For those who truly believe that climate change is man-made and that we should do everything in our power to prevent/slow/stop it, how can you justify early retirement?  Driving and flying less, eating less meat, and having fewer kids is all well and good, but if we really, truly want to do all we can to help, shouldn't we either:  a) devote our lives to a job that tries to find solutions to the dire state that we are in or b) make as much money as possible and donate it all to causes that can help the situation? 

I get that retiring early can make an impact by reducing the need for transportation, but it seems to me that not retiring and working until the day we die to solve some of these problems (or earn more money and pay other people to do it) would have a far greater impact.

Being FIRE doesn't mean giving up advocacy and civic engagement. It just means you don't have to paid to do it, right? :)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 15, 2018, 12:54:18 PM
I read through this thread and am left scratching my head.  For those who truly believe that climate change is man-made and that we should do everything in our power to prevent/slow/stop it, how can you justify early retirement?  Driving and flying less, eating less meat, and having fewer kids is all well and good, but if we really, truly want to do all we can to help, shouldn't we either:  a) devote our lives to a job that tries to find solutions to the dire state that we are in or b) make as much money as possible and donate it all to causes that can help the situation? 

I get that retiring early can make an impact by reducing the need for transportation, but it seems to me that not retiring and working until the day we die to solve some of these problems (or earn more money and pay other people to do it) would have a far greater impact.
I'm FIRED, and 'saving humanity' is my full time job. Even though I know it's pretty much futile.

This past week I focused on making this video:  https://youtu.be/uKyhPn4BpS4

to encourage people to donate to my lobbying campaign to end us subsidies to animal agriculture : https://www.lobbyists4good.org/animal-ag-subsidies

I'm researching and preparing to join the lobbyist I hire, and meet with our reps to explain why we need to end federal subsidies to animal agriculture.

I'm donating time and money to the Vegan Justice League, which targets Welfare cowboy politicians

... and loads more.

Also, don't pull that, "For those who truly believe that climate change is man-made" weasel language, as if it's in doubt. Do you mean to imply we are making much ado about nothing?

We are all talking about the current predicament of man made global warming specifically. There's no 'if'.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: waltworks on October 15, 2018, 12:59:43 PM
https://earther.gizmodo.com/geoengineering-is-inevitable-1829623031

If I had a few billion I might do it myself. IMO it'd be better to start now before SHTF and while everything is still working well so we have resources to deal with unforeseen effects.

-W
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Hirondelle on October 15, 2018, 01:00:36 PM
I read through this thread and am left scratching my head.  For those who truly believe that climate change is man-made and that we should do everything in our power to prevent/slow/stop it, how can you justify early retirement?  Driving and flying less, eating less meat, and having fewer kids is all well and good, but if we really, truly want to do all we can to help, shouldn't we either:  a) devote our lives to a job that tries to find solutions to the dire state that we are in or b) make as much money as possible and donate it all to causes that can help the situation? 

I get that retiring early can make an impact by reducing the need for transportation, but it seems to me that not retiring and working until the day we die to solve some of these problems (or earn more money and pay other people to do it) would have a far greater impact.

Being FIRE doesn't mean giving up advocacy and civic engagement. It just means you don't have to paid to do it, right? :)

Exactly that. FIRE means you don't need a job for the money - so you can work any environmental related job. The internet retirement police might follow you and blame you for not sitting on your porch..

Besides that, I can think of a dozen more problems that I'd like to see ended now (diseases, wars, poverty) but for which I don't have the resources nor the skills/knowledge and even if I had them, I couldn't solve all those problems on my own. So I work a job working on one of them, donate money to several of the others, try to reduce my negative (environmental) impact as much as I can and hope that others will do the same so together we actually get somewhere.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: PoutineLover on October 15, 2018, 01:04:41 PM
I would love to be able to work from home at least some of the time, although I either bike or transit to work anyway so it wouldn't change my carbon emissions. One thing from this thread that I do reject though is to not have any children as a way of combating climate change. I don't think it's wrong for anyone to have replacement level children, and in fact in developed countries with diminishing birth levels, it's probably a good thing. The real effort to be made in terms of overpopulation is to reduce births in countries where most people have 3+ kids, and the way to do that is education (especially of girls), access to jobs (especially for women) and healthcare (so kids don't die). If every country had those three things, birth rates would drop naturally without the need for enforced population control, and the world population would stabilize.
I believe it is up to each person to minimize their own carbon footprint as much as possible, while recognizing that we will each have weak areas. I don't have a car, I don't waste much food, I try to avoid buying new things and most of my electricity comes from renewable sources. But I travel by air and I plan on having kids. Everyone has pluses and minuses in their lives, and individually our impacts are small, so we need to do our part AND convince our governments to take real action through legislation, while also changing our demand so that companies are also incentivized to reduce emissions too. At this point, it's going to take huge changes to avert the worst consequences, and the sooner we start the better.
Also, I don't think anyone over 50 should be allowed to block climate change action, since they will die before they see the results of their stupidity and they are allowing their own greed and short-sightedness to rob future generations of a liveable planet.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: waltworks on October 15, 2018, 01:05:35 PM
FIRE (at least the sort we do here) depends almost completely on modern capitalist society fueled by fossil fuels. Period. We're just as much a part of the problem as someone who's working 9-5.

-W

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 01:12:11 PM
Also, I don't think anyone over 50 should be allowed to block climate change action, since they will die before they see the results of their stupidity and they are allowing their own greed and short-sightedness to rob future generations of a liveable planet.

Ha! If only!

FIRE (at least the sort we do here) depends almost completely on modern capitalist society fueled by fossil fuels. Period. We're just as much a part of the problem as someone who's working 9-5.

-W

I'm not seeing how this is the case. Can you explain what you mean?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: YevKassem on October 15, 2018, 01:14:26 PM
FIRE (at least the sort we do here) depends almost completely on modern capitalist society fueled by fossil fuels. Period. We're just as much a part of the problem as someone who's working 9-5.

-W



Exactly -- that was my point.  Unless you're like Malaysia41 and FIRE so that you can work full-time on advocacy, you should get back to work if you really do care...
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Hirondelle on October 15, 2018, 01:23:40 PM
I would love to be able to work from home at least some of the time, although I either bike or transit to work anyway so it wouldn't change my carbon emissions. One thing from this thread that I do reject though is to not have any children as a way of combating climate change. I don't think it's wrong for anyone to have replacement level children, and in fact in developed countries with diminishing birth levels, it's probably a good thing. The real effort to be made in terms of overpopulation is to reduce births in countries where most people have 3+ kids, and the way to do that is education (especially of girls), access to jobs (especially for women) and healthcare (so kids don't die). If every country had those three things, birth rates would drop naturally without the need for enforced population control, and the world population would stabilize.

I think this has briefly been touched upon before, but children in developed countries use a lot more resources compared to children born in countries where people still have 3+ kids (something like 10x, depending on the countries you compare). I do fully agree with you that women education and child survival should improve to reduce those birthrates, but that's no freebie to get more babies over here in the west. I never really get the argument of "our population is declining already!!". Yes, it's gonna be a problem as our pension system (SS equivalent in my country and many others) is built on a small group of elderly and a large group of working adults. It's also built on a limited number of people that need intensive healthcare. But does the fact that this has been our system for the last 100 or so years mean that we have to keep the system this way? Do you think our current number of inhabitants is a 'good' number that should be maintained?

I'm not saying people should completely stop having kids. But there's a few ways we could slightly reduce our numbers. Legal/good options for abortion, decent birth control availability and sex education, possibility for euthanasia at old age/sickness and no child benefits after the 1st or 2nd child would be some options. All of these options could also be used in countries with higher birth rates than ours. I don't think any of those measures will be impactful enough though to solve the environmental problems, so we'll still have to do other things. I don't see any good in forced 1 child policies like China's and killing people for the sake of the environment also doesn't sound like a good idea.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: waltworks on October 15, 2018, 01:26:57 PM
I'm not seeing how this is the case. Can you explain what you mean?

Where do you think that 4% SWR, dividend, rent check comes from? It comes from modern industry generating profits for you as an owner of the company/building/resource - and spewing CO2 into the atmosphere.

Now, if your "FIRE" is subsistence farming, no use of electricity or fossil fuels, no foods other than what you can grow/hunt or trade with others in your immediate area, and maybe one very old and well used bicycle that you'll keep for a long time as your ONLY form of transportation, then my comments don't apply.

-W
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 15, 2018, 01:27:52 PM
Exactly -- that was my point.  Unless you're like Malaysia41 and FIRE so that you can work full-time on advocacy, you should get back to work if you really do care...

Eh? Being FIRE is completely orthogonal with caring about the environment. At best, it's a tenuous link.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 01:30:00 PM
I'm not seeing how this is the case. Can you explain what you mean?

Where do you think that 4% SWR, dividend, rent check comes from? It comes from modern industry generating profits for you as an owner of the company/building/resource - and spewing CO2 into the atmosphere.

Now, if your "FIRE" is subsistence farming, no use of electricity or fossil fuels, no foods other than what you can grow/hunt or trade with others in your immediate area, and maybe one very old and well used bicycle that you'll keep for a long time as your ONLY form of transportation, then my comments don't apply.

-W

My understanding the the 4% withdrawal rate comes from our economy generating profits. An economy fueled by alternative energy and sustainable practices could do the same. There were a few discussions on here and links to ethical investing.

I do see what you mean about capitalism and perpetual growth/consumption, though. *shrug* I guess we'll see.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 15, 2018, 01:45:10 PM
https://earther.gizmodo.com/geoengineering-is-inevitable-1829623031

If I had a few billion I might do it myself. IMO it'd be better to start now before SHTF and while everything is still working well so we have resources to deal with unforeseen effects.

-W

Huge can of worms.

Geoengineering is a great idea and all . . . but it's super politically complicated.  If you fuck something up and make things worse, the whole world pays.  What happens if the US settles on one theory for how to fix the problem, and China settles on another?  Do they both implement their contradictory changes simultaneously?  What if a geoengineering will make most of the world much better, but most of the midwestern US an unlivable hell-hole . . . do you think the US will go along with it for the good of everyone else?

I can easily see geoengineering arguments leading to world war.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: YevKassem on October 15, 2018, 01:52:52 PM



I can easily see geoengineering arguments leading to world war.
[/quote]


And world was is likely the worst possible thing for the environment...
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on October 15, 2018, 01:55:54 PM
I'm not seeing how this is the case. Can you explain what you mean?

Where do you think that 4% SWR, dividend, rent check comes from? It comes from modern industry generating profits for you as an owner of the company/building/resource - and spewing CO2 into the atmosphere.

Now, if your "FIRE" is subsistence farming, no use of electricity or fossil fuels, no foods other than what you can grow/hunt or trade with others in your immediate area, and maybe one very old and well used bicycle that you'll keep for a long time as your ONLY form of transportation, then my comments don't apply.

-W

My understanding the the 4% withdrawal rate comes from our economy generating profits. An economy fueled by alternative energy and sustainable practices could do the same. There were a few discussions on here and links to ethical investing.

I do see what you mean about capitalism and perpetual growth/consumption, though. *shrug* I guess we'll see.

There used to be a direct link between CO2 emissions and GDP growth. That link is disappering in an increasing number of countries: http://www.ocppc.ma/publications/decoupling-economic-growth-co2-emissions-world
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: PoutineLover on October 15, 2018, 02:02:14 PM
I would love to be able to work from home at least some of the time, although I either bike or transit to work anyway so it wouldn't change my carbon emissions. One thing from this thread that I do reject though is to not have any children as a way of combating climate change. I don't think it's wrong for anyone to have replacement level children, and in fact in developed countries with diminishing birth levels, it's probably a good thing. The real effort to be made in terms of overpopulation is to reduce births in countries where most people have 3+ kids, and the way to do that is education (especially of girls), access to jobs (especially for women) and healthcare (so kids don't die). If every country had those three things, birth rates would drop naturally without the need for enforced population control, and the world population would stabilize.

I think this has briefly been touched upon before, but children in developed countries use a lot more resources compared to children born in countries where people still have 3+ kids (something like 10x, depending on the countries you compare). I do fully agree with you that women education and child survival should improve to reduce those birthrates, but that's no freebie to get more babies over here in the west. I never really get the argument of "our population is declining already!!". Yes, it's gonna be a problem as our pension system (SS equivalent in my country and many others) is built on a small group of elderly and a large group of working adults. It's also built on a limited number of people that need intensive healthcare. But does the fact that this has been our system for the last 100 or so years mean that we have to keep the system this way? Do you think our current number of inhabitants is a 'good' number that should be maintained?

I'm not saying people should completely stop having kids. But there's a few ways we could slightly reduce our numbers. Legal/good options for abortion, decent birth control availability and sex education, possibility for euthanasia at old age/sickness and no child benefits after the 1st or 2nd child would be some options. All of these options could also be used in countries with higher birth rates than ours. I don't think any of those measures will be impactful enough though to solve the environmental problems, so we'll still have to do other things. I don't see any good in forced 1 child policies like China's and killing people for the sake of the environment also doesn't sound like a good idea.
I like all of the ideas for population control through social education and incentives in your second paragraph, and they can be implemented in developed countries too. I disagree with any forced population control methods, since I think reproduction is a natural biological need for many, if not a human right.
For me personally, since I lead a relatively low carbon life compared to my country's average, I think my kids would too, at least as long as I had control over it. I also think that if all the people concerned about climate change didn't have kids, the next generation would only consist of people whose parents didn't care, and that's not necessarily a desirable outcome. In my country, our population is small vs our landmass, and our habitable area is probably going to increase as temperatures go up. We can accommodate both more immigrants, and more people being born, but at the same time we need to transition away from fossil fuels and overconsumption. It's unrealistic to expect everyone to just stop having kids, but many people will choose not too, and most people will choose to have less as they get wealthier, healthier and more educated, so the problem will gradually solve itself if we put the right resources to work.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 15, 2018, 02:06:15 PM
This discussion is going round in circles a bit isn't it!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: chaskavitch on October 15, 2018, 02:15:04 PM
I would love to be able to work from home at least some of the time, although I either bike or transit to work anyway so it wouldn't change my carbon emissions. One thing from this thread that I do reject though is to not have any children as a way of combating climate change. I don't think it's wrong for anyone to have replacement level children, and in fact in developed countries with diminishing birth levels, it's probably a good thing. The real effort to be made in terms of overpopulation is to reduce births in countries where most people have 3+ kids, and the way to do that is education (especially of girls), access to jobs (especially for women) and healthcare (so kids don't die). If every country had those three things, birth rates would drop naturally without the need for enforced population control, and the world population would stabilize.

I think this has briefly been touched upon before, but children in developed countries use a lot more resources compared to children born in countries where people still have 3+ kids (something like 10x, depending on the countries you compare). I do fully agree with you that women education and child survival should improve to reduce those birthrates, but that's no freebie to get more babies over here in the west. I never really get the argument of "our population is declining already!!". Yes, it's gonna be a problem as our pension system (SS equivalent in my country and many others) is built on a small group of elderly and a large group of working adults. It's also built on a limited number of people that need intensive healthcare. But does the fact that this has been our system for the last 100 or so years mean that we have to keep the system this way? Do you think our current number of inhabitants is a 'good' number that should be maintained?

I'm not saying people should completely stop having kids. But there's a few ways we could slightly reduce our numbers. Legal/good options for abortion, decent birth control availability and sex education, possibility for euthanasia at old age/sickness and no child benefits after the 1st or 2nd child would be some options. All of these options could also be used in countries with higher birth rates than ours. I don't think any of those measures will be impactful enough though to solve the environmental problems, so we'll still have to do other things. I don't see any good in forced 1 child policies like China's and killing people for the sake of the environment also doesn't sound like a good idea.
I like all of the ideas for population control through social education and incentives in your second paragraph, and they can be implemented in developed countries too. I disagree with any forced population control methods, since I think reproduction is a natural biological need for many, if not a human right.
For me personally, since I lead a relatively low carbon life compared to my country's average, I think my kids would too, at least as long as I had control over it. I also think that if all the people concerned about climate change didn't have kids, the next generation would only consist of people whose parents didn't care, and that's not necessarily a desirable outcome. In my country, our population is small vs our landmass, and our habitable area is probably going to increase as temperatures go up. We can accommodate both more immigrants, and more people being born, but at the same time we need to transition away from fossil fuels and overconsumption. It's unrealistic to expect everyone to just stop having kids, but many people will choose not too, and most people will choose to have less as they get wealthier, healthier and more educated, so the problem will gradually solve itself if we put the right resources to work.

I'd agree that we have a problem with legal/good options for abortion, decent birth control availability, and sex education here in America.  In another discussion about generational poverty, the point was brought up that if people weren't raised in an environment where getting pregnant early was "just what happens", and they had real information about how to cause/prevent pregnancy, it would make a huge difference in a lot of lives.  Fewer unwanted teenage births, more people who are able to finish their education and have time to make careers for themselves, etc.  Yes, they might end up being people who have more money to travel abroad and pollute with their plane trips, but they'll probably have fewer children, and be far more productive throughout their lives.

Also, I had to add this (semi-helpful) picture as a response to the bolded part of @PoutineLover 's response.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 15, 2018, 02:28:46 PM
Is the assumption here that "caring about the future of the humanity/the planet" is under genetic control?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 15, 2018, 02:39:04 PM
This discussion is going round in circles a bit isn't it!

I've found it interesting to get different resources and perspectives on the subject! It's also sparked interesting conversations with friends offline, like finding out that different jet fuels are being highly invested in.

All of the people who actually work on climate issues that I've spoken to are optimistic that we can get a handle on this and a lot of good things are happening. SO I'm feeling better about that!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: BookLoverL on October 15, 2018, 02:39:26 PM
Regarding how FIRE fits in with being eco-friendly: how is it eco-friendly to spend my entire life working at jobs that are basically pointless, using up plastic because that's the requirements for the filing system, propping up companies that are producing things made of plastic, etc.? The alternative is to do whatever I like, and my hobbies are relatively eco-friendly ones like going for walks and using the internet which I already have on my second-hand laptop, going to libraries, and other relatively low-impact things?

I'd say work is one of the areas of my life where I use the most plastic atm (though I do admittedly still need to move away from plastic-wrapped food, but I'm working on that - I even borrowed a book about it), and where I'm using most resources. It's certainly the cause of at least 80% of my driving (no public transport route from here to there). The sooner I can either FIRE or switch careers to something where I can work from home using few resources, the lower my footprint will be. Plus, if I retired I'd have much more time to focus on things like learning how to garden.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 15, 2018, 02:57:43 PM

I'd agree that we have a problem with  legal/good options for abortion, decent birth control availability, and sex education here in America.  In another discussion about generational poverty, the point was brought up that if people weren't raised in an environment where getting pregnant early was "just what happens", and they had real information about how to cause/prevent pregnancy, it would make a huge difference in a lot of lives.  Fewer unwanted teenage births, more people who are able to finish their education and have time to make careers for themselves, etc.  Yes, they might end up being people who have more money to travel abroad and pollute with their plane trips, but they'll probably have fewer children, and be far more productive throughout their lives.

Umm, here is where I get fussy about names and terms.  "Here in America" should be here in the United States.  I am also in North America, and we have legal/good options for abortion, decent birth control availability, and sex education.  Not as good as I would like, but not bad.

As well, timing of births matter.  I know I keep talking about generation time, but it does matter.  Having your first baby at 20 is totally different from having your first at 30, if it is repeated for a few generations.   So a family can have 2 (or occasionally even 3) and not have a huge impact, if they have them later.  This is where I think the effect of women's education comes in, you don't have babies if you are still in school and working to have a future, you have the babies when you are more settled in your life.  If you have no education and no plans other than babies, you have your babies.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: PoutineLover on October 15, 2018, 03:12:01 PM
@chaskavitch thanks for the pic, that movie was on my mind as I was writing :p
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: chaskavitch on October 15, 2018, 04:19:01 PM

I'd agree that we have a problem with  legal/good options for abortion, decent birth control availability, and sex education here in America.  In another discussion about generational poverty, the point was brought up that if people weren't raised in an environment where getting pregnant early was "just what happens", and they had real information about how to cause/prevent pregnancy, it would make a huge difference in a lot of lives.  Fewer unwanted teenage births, more people who are able to finish their education and have time to make careers for themselves, etc.  Yes, they might end up being people who have more money to travel abroad and pollute with their plane trips, but they'll probably have fewer children, and be far more productive throughout their lives.

Umm, here is where I get fussy about names and terms.  "Here in America" should be here in the United States.  I am also in North America, and we have legal/good options for abortion, decent birth control availability, and sex education.  Not as good as I would like, but not bad.

As well, timing of births matter.  I know I keep talking about generation time, but it does matter.  Having your first baby at 20 is totally different from having your first at 30, if it is repeated for a few generations.   So a family can have 2 (or occasionally even 3) and not have a huge impact, if they have them later.  This is where I think the effect of women's education comes in, you don't have babies if you are still in school and working to have a future, you have the babies when you are more settled in your life.  If you have no education and no plans other than babies, you have your babies.

You make a very good point.  Thanks for bringing it up :) 

As far as generation timing and the number of children each couple/individual has - I had a conversation the other day with a coworker about how long it would take the Duggars (of "19 Kids and Counting" fame) to take over the world if each of their 19 children also had 19 children starting at 21-23 years old.  It's not a long time.  By the time their youngest is 40, Michelle Duggar will be ~84, and they'd have 361 grandkids.  They already have twelve, and I can't figure out how many great grandkids they'd have (in 40 years).  If my math is right, after all their grandchildren had children, they'd have 6859 people in that generation, then 130,321, then 2,476,099.  That's not even counting the previous living generations. 

I'm not going to tell people they're not allowed to have 19 kids if they want, and I know that over time we're all related to everyone else just a tiny bit, but that math just boggles my mind.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 15, 2018, 05:52:57 PM
Agree completely.  But, it still doesn't change the equation.  The population size is what drives CO2 emissions.  We can, however, do our best to reduce it on an individual level.  I just don't think it will be enough.
Nope, you're still not grasping it. This is the equation:

Impact = Population x Consumption (Individual)

For example, 10 people emitting 2 tonne of CO2e - most Third World countries - have the same impact as 1 person emitting 20t CO2e - most First World countries. The figures are a bit muddied by the First World outsourcing its pollution to the Third World. If we buy a billion doohickeys and they're all made in China, then the emissions from making those doohickeys is commonly attributed to China, but really they're ours. In any case the atmosphere does not care about countries and blame games.

Now, the important thing about the equation is this:

People in the First World don't want to reduce their consumption, so they prefer to blame the population part of the equation. People in the Third World do the opposite. The truth is that both matter. BUT - while we in the First World can HALVE our consumption within 12 months without significant change to our quality of life, the only way to halve population is with genocide. As I am not a Nazi or Communist, I'm not in favour of genocide. So that leaves reducing consumption.

People like to focus on the population part because then the solutions are all someone else's problem. If I say, "well the real problem is all those brown people having babies", then I get to keep tooling around in my Cessna. If I say, "obviously if people come to a high consumption country like Australia, our impact will be greater," and so I can just blame immigration, and I can jump in the SUV to drive to the airport to get into a Boeing for a quick trip across the Pacific. In the West, focusing on the population side of the equation is a mixture of avoiding the inconvenience of having to actually do something and ordinary old bigotry. Do not be a lazy cowardly racist, act.

Again, most of the things we can do to reduce our consumption, and thus our impact, are also things which benefit our finances and our health.

And again, since fossil fuels are finite, at some point we are going to have to use less of them anyway, we may as well collapse now and avoid the rush.

The Earth being finite is perhaps one of the hardest concepts for Westerners to grasp. This is why our screens these days are dominated by postapocalyptic and cornucopian fantasies. Shows like The Walking Dead are really about "OMG everything will run out at once!" and shows like Star Trek are about pressing a button and everything you need simply materialises in front of you. As usual, the truth lies in between these two absurd extremes. The world is not going to collapse overnight, but we are never going to have hordes of intelligent robots serving our every whim as we kick back on a couch on Mars. It's not going to happen.

Drop your consumption now. Your children will have less of a choice in the matter, and their children will have no choice, so it is better to build the habits now.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 16, 2018, 01:01:09 AM
This video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9DNWK6WfQw) is talking about soldiers returning from war, returning to an alienated society. But he makes the broader point that as wealth increases, mental health decreases. For example, women in wealthy parts of the US have more depression than women in subsaharan Africa. This is not an argument for removing women's rights, obviously. It's simply noting that wealth and spending are poor substitutes for the actual things that make people happy, which is a sense of community and purpose, connectedness to other people.

I would suggest that cooking meals from fresh ingredients and inviting other people to join you at the dinner table is more emotionally enriching than eating a TV dinner while watching TV together. That being out in the open on foot, on bicycle or on the train leads to more connections with other people than sitting in a car and swearing at other drivers. Likewise these things will help your physical health.

So once again, the things helping the environment are good things to do anyway. I really can't see the argument against them, except sheer inertia. "But... I've always had TV dinners and driven an SUV." And some people have always been alcoholics, this does not mean it's good for them.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 16, 2018, 05:54:42 AM
^Kyle  you are totally right.  But we have to look deeper.  Why did people start eating all this prepared food instead of cooking their own?  Why did TV become so pervasive?  It is market-driven.  All that manufacturing potential left over from WWII - marketing went into high gear persuading people to consume, becasue there was all this capacity and not enough demand.  Some I think has  been mostly beneficial, I love my computer and my Nexus 5 phone.  But so much is excessive, and people get on the treadmill and don't have time to reflect.  To me that is one of the great benefits of MMM's philosophy; in the use of financial management he encourages people to disconnect from the consumer society's heavy push.

Re population/consumption, it is not an either/or situation.  It is both.  Too many people, some of whom consume way too many resources, and the others wanting to have more consumption as their income increases.  Which comes back to the marketing - we have seen drunk driving and smoking go down because of societal pressure.  Somehow we need to change the way society looks at conspicuous consumption - not "oh I envy them", but "oh, poor suckers, the only way they can look good to themselves is by spending all that money".  Too bad these days thrifty seems to equal stingy, and the term "wastrel" has been dropped from our vocabulary.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: MarciaB on October 16, 2018, 03:34:50 PM
For anyone thinking it's too difficult to get the whole country to change a habit, being that we are such independent people and don't like being told what to do (Americans), I'd like to point out the American male went from over 50% smokers to less than 17% from 1955 to 2015. A concerted campaign and a political awareness of the facts regarding pollution (versus the hysterics) and affects on health, economy and the coastline can put even the reddest politicians on the side of the environment. Self interest is universal. Green investing has been found profitable in quite a few red states. Corporations poisoning the water tables and the air around isn't just a problem for liberals, our fisheries and tourist attractions need to make a profit too, right?

A smaller example of behavioral change would be that about 10 years ago we all got paper and plastic bags from the grocery store as a matter of course. And now it's more likely that we all carry around reusable bags with us (many people, a lot of the time). Who knew that the American grocery consumer could be bothered with remembering to bring the bags from the car and use them? I wouldn't have predicted it.

It's a different conversation as to whether these reusable bags save resources (net savings)? Don't know about that. Just commenting on habit change that surprised me (we Americans can be pretty lazy and entitled).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: MarciaB on October 16, 2018, 04:13:18 PM
Even if you make the most environmentally ethical choices possible, in the western world, your carbon footprint is still ~3x what's arguably sustainable

Quote
But the "floor" below which nobody in the U.S. can reach, no matter a person's energy choices, turned out to be 8.5 tons, the class found. That was the emissions calculated for a homeless person who ate in soup kitchens and slept in homeless shelters.

-http://news.mit.edu/2008/footprint-tt0416

I feel that a Swiftian solution may help us here.  What if we eat the homeless?

They don't have much of a carbon footprint though, do they?  /wink
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 16, 2018, 04:22:07 PM
Even if you make the most environmentally ethical choices possible, in the western world, your carbon footprint is still ~3x what's arguably sustainable

Quote
But the "floor" below which nobody in the U.S. can reach, no matter a person's energy choices, turned out to be 8.5 tons, the class found. That was the emissions calculated for a homeless person who ate in soup kitchens and slept in homeless shelters.

-http://news.mit.edu/2008/footprint-tt0416

I feel that a Swiftian solution may help us here.  What if we eat the homeless?

They don't have much of a carbon footprint though, do they?  /wink

You guys, Mötorhead has been trying to tell us the solution for like thirty years!

https://youtu.be/0LZxelSc62Y
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Telecaster on October 16, 2018, 05:38:04 PM

6. Buy electrical power from other sources preferring in order: wind, geothermal, solar, hydroelectric, landfill gas or natural gas, waste burning, bagasse. Don't even think about nuclear or coal.


Nuclear is one of those topics that is highly emotional (on both sides) and therefore there is not a lot of sober discussion about it, but there should be, especially in respect to climate change.  For example, CO2 emissions per capita (in tons):

United States:  15.54
Germany:  9.47
France:  5.12

Nuclear power accounts for about 15% of power in Germany (and declining), and 75% in France (I just included the US for reference).  Nuclear power is controversial for a number of reasons, but as a zero carbon energy source it needs to be discussed soberly in connection with climate change. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 16, 2018, 06:32:20 PM
I clicked on an article in one of our more right wing papers here to see how they were presenting the report. There's a paywall but here's the type of language from the sneak peek:

"spicy broth of green politics and tamed science"

What can we do when faced with right wing media sources who continue to discredit action on climate change as "green politics" (and they take a very dim view of anything green). Whenever the journalist or columnist wants to attack the language is consistently mocking in tone, which I feel prevents readers from taking another view. I feel like media is the biggest obstacle.

In their defence, they were pleased to report that nuclear power is being considered by these "Greenies". (Hey maybe it's because they are scientists not Greenies... )
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 16, 2018, 07:00:50 PM
I
In their defence, they were pleased to report that nuclear power is being considered by these "Greenies". (Hey maybe it's because they are scientists not Greenies... )

And maybe a lot of scientists are "greenies" because of the science?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 16, 2018, 07:40:01 PM
Nuclear power is controversial for a number of reasons, but as a zero carbon energy source it needs to be discussed soberly in connection with climate change. 
It's not zero-carbon, it's low carbon. There exist no zero carbon electricity sources. The iron must be dug from the ground - with drills using oil. It must be roasted with coking coal - a process chemically releasing CO2. It must be melted and alloyed with other things like vanadium for hardening or chromium to make it "stainless". Aluminium for wind turbines must also be dug up and refined, and it's made with huge amounts of electricity. Concrete's materials are likewise dug up and ground up and refined, and the concrete setting chemical process also releases CO2. And then the plants when built have to be maintained with vehicles tooling around, parts replaced and so on.

Hydroelectric's often thought of as low emissions, but in some cases the emissions are even higher than for coal - because they flood a wooded river valley, and all the plant matter rots and releases methane, which is a strong greenhouse gas (at least 23 times stronger than CO2, though some scientists recently are arguing for calling it 32 times or even higher).

The net result is that for each kWh of electricity produced, we get something like,

0.07kgCO2-equivalent = Geothermal, Solar PV, Solar thermal, Wind
0.22kgCO2e = Hydroelectric/kWh
0.44kgCO2e = Nuclear, Landfill gas or Natural gas
1.50kgCO2e = Oil or Coal

Now, some individual power plants are better, and some are much worse; my own state of Victoria's old Hazelwood plant burning brown coal had about twice the emissions of a regular plant. And the French nuclear plants are pretty good, while the Chinese ones are awful in terms of carbon emissions.

There's no such thing as zero emissions. There's just more or less emissions. But again we come to Jeavon's Paradox; halving the emissions from each kWh of electricity may lead to more electricity use, and thus the emissions don't drop as much as you might expect, or in fact they go up.

In any case, with or without global warming the issue is depleting resources. The oil is going to run short, then the gas, and finally the coal. Some time in the middle the uranium will run short.

We can make the uranium last longer with breeder reactors, but that also makes more plutonium, and going on the Iran and DPRK experience, quite simply the Western world is not going to let the Third World have a stack of plutonium - any solution to the energy and emissions problem must be a global one, or along with electricity it will generate conflicts. Thorium reactors have some promise, but thorium reactors require a plutonium seed, so that each thorium reactor requires a uranium reactor.

Basically, if we insist on powering our lifestyles by burning things - whether the burning is combustion or fission - then our lifestyle like those things will be finite.

Consume less. It takes some years and billions of dollars to build new and better power plants, but we can reduce our consumption now. And again: even if you don't care about the environment or depleting resources, these are all good things to do for our finances and physical health, too. You don't need to be a greenie to think that fresh fruit and vegies and bicycling are better for you and your wallet than takeout and driving.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 16, 2018, 08:03:49 PM
I
In their defence, they were pleased to report that nuclear power is being considered by these "Greenies". (Hey maybe it's because they are scientists not Greenies... )

And maybe a lot of scientists are "greenies" because of the science?

Quite. I don't think facts ever bothered the columnists of these types of paper :P
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 16, 2018, 08:59:19 PM
That's why it's so painful to watch governments not only turn their backs on the idea of leadership, but actively work in the opposite direction.

Social and cultural change generally start from outside government. Government nearly always follows.

Mandela, Gandhi, King, Havel, etc all started outside government. I'd love to see government lead, but the most effective thing for anyone who wants government to act to do is to act first.

That's why I'm acting, or one of the reasons. When enough other people see the pattern, they'll stop blaming others' inaction and act themselves. Then politicians will see where the votes are going.

I'm pretty sure Gandhi had situations like this in mind when he suggested to be the chance you wanted to see. The more you live by your values the better your life, even if others aren't doing it. No amount of material pleasure can make up for living against your values.

This quote doesn't perfectly overlap, but its spirit is somewhat relevant, or at least motivates me:
Quote
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government.

I'm not waiting for government to lead, nor do I want future generations to look back at me and ask why I waited to act when the signs were clear.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 16, 2018, 09:10:23 PM
Traveling cross country, at least in US, sounds hellacious and unrealistic for families. I do think that people being able to see different parts of the world is an awesome thing and there should be a conscious effort to create opportunities for that!

I'm taking the train to L.A. from New York in a couple weeks. It's a third-world train system, but it's quiet, spacious, and I have plenty of work (editing my next book) that solitude benefits.

I'm also learning to sail. So far getting on the water is a vacation mere miles from Manhattan at tiny fraction the cost or pollution the cost of flying. Eventually, I expect to sail to other continents, voyages I expect will rival or surpass any other trips I've taken.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on October 17, 2018, 12:38:47 AM
Nuclear power is controversial for a number of reasons, but as a zero carbon energy source it needs to be discussed soberly in connection with climate change. 
It's not zero-carbon, it's low carbon. There exist no zero carbon electricity sources. The iron must be dug from the ground - with drills using oil. It must be roasted with coking coal - a process chemically releasing CO2. It must be melted and alloyed with other things like vanadium for hardening or chromium to make it "stainless". Aluminium for wind turbines must also be dug up and refined, and it's made with huge amounts of electricity. Concrete's materials are likewise dug up and ground up and refined, and the concrete setting chemical process also releases CO2. And then the plants when built have to be maintained with vehicles tooling around, parts replaced and so on.

Hydroelectric's often thought of as low emissions, but in some cases the emissions are even higher than for coal - because they flood a wooded river valley, and all the plant matter rots and releases methane, which is a strong greenhouse gas (at least 23 times stronger than CO2, though some scientists recently are arguing for calling it 32 times or even higher).

The net result is that for each kWh of electricity produced, we get something like,

0.07kgCO2-equivalent = Geothermal, Solar PV, Solar thermal, Wind
0.22kgCO2e = Hydroelectric/kWh
0.44kgCO2e = Nuclear, Landfill gas or Natural gas
1.50kgCO2e = Oil or Coal

Now, some individual power plants are better, and some are much worse; my own state of Victoria's old Hazelwood plant burning brown coal had about twice the emissions of a regular plant. And the French nuclear plants are pretty good, while the Chinese ones are awful in terms of carbon emissions.

There's no such thing as zero emissions. There's just more or less emissions. But again we come to Jeavon's Paradox; halving the emissions from each kWh of electricity may lead to more electricity use, and thus the emissions don't drop as much as you might expect, or in fact they go up.

In any case, with or without global warming the issue is depleting resources. The oil is going to run short, then the gas, and finally the coal. Some time in the middle the uranium will run short.

We can make the uranium last longer with breeder reactors, but that also makes more plutonium, and going on the Iran and DPRK experience, quite simply the Western world is not going to let the Third World have a stack of plutonium - any solution to the energy and emissions problem must be a global one, or along with electricity it will generate conflicts. Thorium reactors have some promise, but thorium reactors require a plutonium seed, so that each thorium reactor requires a uranium reactor.

Basically, if we insist on powering our lifestyles by burning things - whether the burning is combustion or fission - then our lifestyle like those things will be finite.

Consume less. It takes some years and billions of dollars to build new and better power plants, but we can reduce our consumption now. And again: even if you don't care about the environment or depleting resources, these are all good things to do for our finances and physical health, too. You don't need to be a greenie to think that fresh fruit and vegies and bicycling are better for you and your wallet than takeout and driving.

The emission numbers for hydro will vary greatly throughout the world. LCA analysis for Norwegian hydro is at 2.4 grams/kWh: https://www.ostfoldforskning.no/media/1056/734-1.pdf
The difference is mainly due to colder climate and dams at higher altitudes where there is less organic matter to rot, and some relatively large river plants where there are no dams. Lot of other downsides to hydro, including damages to the eco system, but climate emissions are not always one of them. To keep the remaining waterfalls, we probably won’t build many more large dams, but there is a large potential in updating old hydro plants, and building smaller (low impact) river plants.

The high emissions from methane can also play in our favor: if we build biogas plants to capture methane from natural processes, like waste water, waste, manure, etc, we can get heat and electricity with negative co2 emissions. Some Swedish studies have shown co2 emissions of -152 % from selected agricultural biogas plants, just because they remove so much CH4. Some places they are even experimenting with bio-CCS: by connecting the biogas plant to a hothouse you could capture the CO2 through food production.

100% agree with your main point: wasting resources is the main problem.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 17, 2018, 01:47:09 AM
Nate Hagens of the Bottleneck Foundation gave this 'Blindspots and Superheroes' talk in 2015 at an earth day conference.  This presentation, much like the Archdruid Reports and W. Catton's 'Overshoot' book, further opened my eyes up to the scale of our predicament.

https://youtu.be/YUSpsT6Oqrg

Such a small number of views for such a powerful lecture. I thought you all might find Mr. Hagen's perspective interesting.

Oh yeah - just a small aside: about 19 minutes in, he does a fine job translating energy consumption into a detailed analysis of terrestrial vertebrate biomass, (livestock biomass predominates, and total vert biomass is arguably 6x more than the carrying capacity of earth).  It was one of the early presentations I saw where I *really* began questioning my own meat consumption. Just as his data from Vaklav and Chefurka convinced me to stop eating pigs and cows, he goes on to say he eats 'spa beef' ... **wut?** Uh, it's just so ... IDK, ironic and bemusing.

If you watch it, please share reactions, insights, etc.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 17, 2018, 07:39:11 AM
That's why it's so painful to watch governments not only turn their backs on the idea of leadership, but actively work in the opposite direction.

Social and cultural change generally start from outside government. Government nearly always follows.

I have two responses to this:

1.  There is and has been significant social and cultural change regarding the environment, green energy, and green policies at a grass roots level.  Making personal sacrifices is made a bit more difficult when you see your neighbour's lifted diesel truck rollin' coal as he drives the block and a half home from the local McDonald's, throwing wrappers out the open window with the A/C on full blast.  That neighbour, in fact, is the direct result of a coordinated attack campaign on the grass roots environmental movement by right wing politicians in the pockets of big business and is never going to go away until we stop that source.

2.  The southern states voluntarily gave up their slaves?  Marijuana was legalized across the US?  There are plenty of instances where the Government is extremely slow to follow social changes.  We're getting to the point where this is no longer acceptable.  The reluctance to do the right thing is causing irreparable damage.


I'm not waiting for the government to lead, and do advocate that everyone try to do their own part.  I'm a realist though, and recognize that until the government starts to lead the problem won't get better.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Telecaster on October 17, 2018, 01:56:21 PM

Consume less. It takes some years and billions of dollars to build new and better power plants, but we can reduce our consumption now. And again: even if you don't care about the environment or depleting resources, these are all good things to do for our finances and physical health, too. You don't need to be a greenie to think that fresh fruit and vegies and bicycling are better for you and your wallet than takeout and driving.

That's all true, but I'm skeptical this is a realistic path to a solution.    Everyone knows you should save for retirement.  Most people don't.  Everyone already knows you should exercise.  Most people don't.   Everyone already knows you should eat right.  Most people don't.   Everyone already knows that it costs lots of money to drive a big SUV.   Lots of people still do.    Everyone already knows some extra attic insulation is a good investment.  Most people don't get around to it.  All those things provide the individual with benefits, directly and indirectly, and most people just don't get around to it.  And let's face it.  If people are cold they are going to turn up the heat.  If they are hot, they'll flip on the AC.  You might convince them to set the thermostat at 66 instead of 69, but you won't get much more than that.   And maybe not even that. 

So now we have global warming where the benefits are kind of abstract and occur in the future.  Can we really convince people to change their lifestyles because of this issue, when they won't already?  I find that unlikely.  I believe there must be systemic changes how we generate and consume energy. 

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 17, 2018, 02:51:05 PM
Fortunately/unfortunately, climate change isn't really abstract anymore. There are lots of changes that are very apparent in physical environments now related to the way things are changing. We're not stopping climate change, sure, because it's already here. But we're trying to make sure we have something sustainable to move forward on so that it doesn't get a whole lot worse.

I'm gleaning there are a few approaches here that I've seen. 1) It's futile. Do your best to prepare and save yourself. 2) It's futile. Do what you can to lessen the effects, anyway. 3) We have a chance to make things better. Do everything you can to be part of the solution. I guess they're all fairly valid. No one's going with option, "EHHH, WHO GIVES A SHIT, WE ALL DIE ANYWAY, PARTY HARDY." Which is a relief.

Being in the camp #3 myself, it's been really awesome to hear what different folks are doing, reading the resources you've shared, and figuring out how I can do more to live a lower emissions day-to-day. I think when I'm tracking my finances & gen advocacy in my MMM journal, I'll also start with tracking my carbon footprint and how even the smallest actions I make make a difference.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 17, 2018, 03:17:13 PM
Fortunately/unfortunately, climate change isn't really abstract anymore. There are lots of changes that are very apparent in physical environments now related to the way things are changing. We're not stopping climate change, sure, because it's already here. But we're trying to make sure we have something sustainable to move forward on so that it doesn't get a whole lot worse.

I'm gleaning there are a few approaches here that I've seen. 1) It's futile. Do your best to prepare and save yourself. 2) It's futile. Do what you can to lessen the effects, anyway. 3) We have a chance to make things better. Do everything you can to be part of the solution. I guess they're all fairly valid. No one's going with option, "EHHH, WHO GIVES A SHIT, WE ALL DIE ANYWAY, PARTY HARDY." Which is a relief.

Being in the camp #3 myself, it's been really awesome to hear what different folks are doing, reading the resources you've shared, and figuring out how I can do more to live a lower emissions day-to-day. I think when I'm tracking my finances & gen advocacy in my MMM journal, I'll also start with tracking my carbon footprint and how even the smallest actions I make make a difference.

Meanwhile in Florida: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/411679-pence-in-georgia-after-looking-at-hurricane-michael-damage-causes-of

Ignore, lie, and obstruct. Very frustrating. It definitely pushes me towards 1 or 2.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 17, 2018, 04:20:45 PM
Fortunately/unfortunately, climate change isn't really abstract anymore. There are lots of changes that are very apparent in physical environments now related to the way things are changing. We're not stopping climate change, sure, because it's already here. But we're trying to make sure we have something sustainable to move forward on so that it doesn't get a whole lot worse.

I'm gleaning there are a few approaches here that I've seen. 1) It's futile. Do your best to prepare and save yourself. 2) It's futile. Do what you can to lessen the effects, anyway. 3) We have a chance to make things better. Do everything you can to be part of the solution. I guess they're all fairly valid. No one's going with option, "EHHH, WHO GIVES A SHIT, WE ALL DIE ANYWAY, PARTY HARDY." Which is a relief.

Being in the camp #3 myself, it's been really awesome to hear what different folks are doing, reading the resources you've shared, and figuring out how I can do more to live a lower emissions day-to-day. I think when I'm tracking my finances & gen advocacy in my MMM journal, I'll also start with tracking my carbon footprint and how even the smallest actions I make make a difference.

Meanwhile in Florida: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/411679-pence-in-georgia-after-looking-at-hurricane-michael-damage-causes-of

Ignore, lie, and obstruct. Very frustrating. It definitely pushes me towards 1 or 2.

I don't give a shit about this sham of an administration, if I am being honest. Local/state govs can be even more effective on climate issues, so I am going to be pretty depressed when Nov 6 results come in, especially for my state, I am sure. But I'll get over it and keep working. My only job right now is to make sure people in my shitty state have IDs, are able and ready to vote, and getting them to the polls. And beyond that, being a good neighbor and making sure they're getting what they need to live their lives well and giving money to the orgs that make that possible.

The GOP doesn't represent the interests or even beliefs of most Americans (the Dems barely do) and it's not going to be able to keep up the frail victories they've secured for themselves through gerrymandering and voter suppression.

SCOTUS is going to have to move the way society does, just like they did for civil rights; it would be untenable for a minority court to hold a majority population hostage and, even if they were unAmerican and stupid enough to try, Congress would have to step in and address term limits.


STUBBORN, FOOLHARDY OPTIMISM, GO!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 18, 2018, 07:26:17 AM
No one's going with option, "EHHH, WHO GIVES A SHIT, WE ALL DIE ANYWAY, PARTY HARDY." Which is a relief.

I've found this approach is pretty common in some places.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 18, 2018, 08:03:37 AM
No one's going with option, "EHHH, WHO GIVES A SHIT, WE ALL DIE ANYWAY, PARTY HARDY." Which is a relief.

I've found this approach is pretty common in some places.

Like the Trump administration, for example.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?utm_term=.972dcf28831a
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 18, 2018, 08:16:45 AM
No one's going with option, "EHHH, WHO GIVES A SHIT, WE ALL DIE ANYWAY, PARTY HARDY." Which is a relief.

I've found this approach is pretty common in some places.

Like the Trump administration, for example.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?utm_term=.972dcf28831a

Most conservatives aren't stupid, they know that climate change is real and that the science is proven.  They tend to embrace the 'We're all gonna die anyway, so fuck it I'm gonna have fun now" approach as a group.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 18, 2018, 08:31:39 AM
@GuitarStv I actually don't know about that. I think conservative leadership is in general probably super corrupt and in bed with lobbying $$. But, for example, -- not to knock on any particular religious group -- I think that within the evangelical support base there are certainly people who do not believe this is a problem.

I think it confuses me the most when rural America supports antiscience, though, since they are probably experiencing the issues first hand right now. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 18, 2018, 08:34:53 AM
Found a Gallup poll on sentiment: https://news.gallup.com/poll/231530/global-warming-concern-steady-despite-partisan-shifts.aspx

Anecdotally, I've heard from moderates and independents in my circle who also believe that climate change is exaggerated for political gain. So I guess some of those answers aren't too surprising to me.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 18, 2018, 08:46:56 AM
That's all true, but I'm skeptical this is a realistic path to a solution.    Everyone knows you should save for retirement.  Most people don't.  Everyone already knows you should exercise.  Most people don't.   Everyone already knows you should eat right.  Most people don't.   Everyone already knows that it costs lots of money to drive a big SUV.   Lots of people still do.    Everyone already knows some extra attic insulation is a good investment.  Most people don't get around to it.  All those things provide the individual with benefits, directly and indirectly, and most people just don't get around to it.  And let's face it.  If people are cold they are going to turn up the heat.  If they are hot, they'll flip on the AC.  You might convince them to set the thermostat at 66 instead of 69, but you won't get much more than that.   And maybe not even that. 

So now we have global warming where the benefits are kind of abstract and occur in the future.  Can we really convince people to change their lifestyles because of this issue, when they won't already?  I find that unlikely.  I believe there must be systemic changes how we generate and consume energy.

On the other hand, more people brush their teeth, wear seat belts, don't drive drunk, etc than ever before.

The people I know who have changed to pollute less prefer the change and don't find it the deprivation or sacrifice you present it as. My strategy isn't to convince people, which I find provokes debate, but to help people share their environmental values and act on them, which they tend to appreciate and thank me for.

If you look for reasons not to start, you'll find them.

If you look for reasons to start, you'll find them too.

We're all free to choose to start or not. I know my choice. I see people follow me and thank me for it, as I thank people I'm following. All my changes have improved my life. You want to keep polluting, that's your business, but my life improves with each reduction I learn to make.

In other words, you'll have to work harder to get me to give up.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: norabird on October 18, 2018, 09:24:02 AM
If it's helpful, this has finally pushed me to switch my banking to Amalgamated and my funds to Fidelity's sustainable fund. Just waiting on my direct deposit to switch and to close up all the larger bank accounts I have (right now, Santander, Barclays and b of a). Fidelity's sustainable fund, I've discovered, has 20% discretionary non-ESG and some holdings in oil/petroleum/refinery companies, so I'm asking them about that and also checking if Amalgamated's funds are better. I did also finally switch my energy provider to one of the green options (though I honestly don't know which one, that was a very overwhelming process with lots of choice and little clarity).

I do feel like these aren't enough and I am still flying a fair amount (the luxury of being able to take longer trips by train is not yet mine), and I'm still eating meat, but doing the administrative lifts that I can at least.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 18, 2018, 09:50:36 AM
Found a Gallup poll on sentiment: https://news.gallup.com/poll/231530/global-warming-concern-steady-despite-partisan-shifts.aspx

Anecdotally, I've heard from moderates and independents in my circle who also believe that climate change is exaggerated for political gain. So I guess some of those answers aren't too surprising to me.

I feel like we forget the massive disinformation campaign starting at the beginning of this century, but really taking off from 2009 onwards, with climategate.

Way back in  2002, Frank Luntz, right wing linguist/propagandist who has given us such hits as 'death tax' for the estate tax and 'government takeover of healthcare' for the ACA, suggested the Bush administration discuss 'climate change' rather than 'global warming' because climate change sounded less man-made and less severe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz#Global_warming

In 2008, the year before climategate, Pelosi and Gingrich made this ad:

https://youtu.be/qi6n_-wB154

Then in 2009, climategate hit, and the republican noise machine lit the night up with it. 

~ 1000 e-mails from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK, were stolen and released. The language in the emails was set upon and spun into controversy. For example, a researcher had written in one of the e-mails about doing a math 'trick' to bridge disparate data sets - one from tree ring data, another from ice core samples. The 'trick' turned out to be legit, iirc, but the language was seized upon by journalists like James Delingpole, who suggested massive fraud and collusion among climate scientists to trick us.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_email_controversy

There's a BBC Horizon episode on climategate called 'science under attack' that goes into more detail if you're interested: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00y4yql

In the end, 7 independent investigations concluded the climategate controversy was much ado about nothing. And yet - STILL - my dad - a man with a masters degree in engineering - still thinks all climate scientists are full of shit. Because no matter the aftermath, he'll always remember the word 'trick' and climategate.

And now we have global warming accelerating before us, and with it the possible|probable extinction of humanity.  Global warming is talked about as if a mere political football. It's come down to mattering what some Rush Limbaugh listener believes. It's fucking outrageous. 

Is this what they mean by the tail wagging the dog? People are fed disinformation, they develop an incorrect belief, and then society panders to those beliefs? No matter the existential effects? I wouldn't care so much if their willful ignorance wasn't such a threat to us all.

I mean, even if we were all agreed on the science, and what to do about it, this threat could still wipe us out. But FFS, this is exasperating.

So I grow a bit flummoxed talking about the political opinions of people who can't be bothered to do a little independent research and double check their assumptions. Even as we're held hostage by the people inspiring those opinions. It's all so aggravating.

You guys do remember climategate, right? What was your experience with it and the aftermath?

Lastly, did any of you watch that Nate Hagens 'Blindspots and Superheroes' lecture? I'd love to know what you think.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 18, 2018, 09:52:52 AM
If it's helpful, this has finally pushed me to switch my banking to Amalgamated and my funds to Fidelity's sustainable fund. Just waiting on my direct deposit to switch and to close up all the larger bank accounts I have (right now, Santander, Barclays and b of a). Fidelity's sustainable fund, I've discovered, has 20% discretionary non-ESG and some holdings in oil/petroleum/refinery companies, so I'm asking them about that and also checking if Amalgamated's funds are better. I did also finally switch my energy provider to one of the green options (though I honestly don't know which one, that was a very overwhelming process with lots of choice and little clarity).

I do feel like these aren't enough and I am still flying a fair amount (the luxury of being able to take longer trips by train is not yet mine), and I'm still eating meat, but doing the administrative lifts that I can at least.

I love it!  Will you tell us what you hear about Amalgamated funds?

(By the way, @norabird , I made a video for my book which comes out in Feb and is on Amazon now for pre-order. Nothing to do with climate change, but I wouldn't be publishing book with an actual real publisher if it hadn't been for you! Thanks again!)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 18, 2018, 10:03:06 AM
I was 12 in 2002, so I don't remember climategate. I've never heard of it at all, actually. Having worked in marketing and communications in the sciences, and taken a few classes on it, it's been my observation that the consensus is that science communications on this issue have been poorly funded and executed, so I am not surprised.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 18, 2018, 10:16:10 AM
I was 12 in 2002, so I don't remember climategate. I've never heard of it at all, actually. Having worked in marketing and communications in the sciences, and taken a few classes on it, it's been my observation that the consensus is that science communications on this issue have been poorly funded and executed, so I am not surprised.

By the way I wasn't attacking your comment even as I quoted it @Meowkins. You just made me think about the history of what led us to where we are today and I thought I'd share my memory of it.

Yeah - my take is that even as scientists could improve their communication skills, the problem has more to do with the expansive and massive network of people funded by fossil fuel interests to 'manufacture doubt' about global warming - just as the tobacco companies had done in the 80s.

I would urge anyone who hasn't already, to read Jane Mayer's Dark Money book (https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Money-History-Billionaires-Radical/dp/0307947904) about the disinformation networks that are funded mainly by the Koch donor network. It's easy to dismiss mentions of the Kochs as being the stuff of conspiracy stories. It's easy to dismiss their influence as being the 'other' George Soros. I would say don't dismiss the $ behind the disinformation campaigns so easily. Ms. Mayer's book is well-researched and jaw dropping. Seriously, read it.  Here's a PDF of it: http://parkour.negaah.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Dark-Money-Jane-Mayer.pdf

The other one is Merchants of Doubt. IIRC, there's a book and a documentary.
 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 18, 2018, 10:25:37 AM
I didn't know it was called that, but I certainly remember the circus with the stolen e-mails in 2009. That was one of the earlier examples I'm aware of that illustrated how in this day and age people say enough things by e-mail that if you are able to freely rummage through their inbox you can pick and chose words and phrases to support pretty much any narrative at all. The precursor to the weaponized FOIA requests that are now sometimes used to go after any academic at public universities who strongly advocates for a position some group doesn't like.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Hirondelle on October 18, 2018, 10:49:55 AM
To add some positive/hopefull information to the discussion; several universities in my country have made the change to make the default menu offered at meeting/conference lunches vegetarian. It's still possible to get meat, but it has to be requested seperately (like people with allergies or vegans have to do). Turns out, only a small % of people is so addicted to their carnivorious habits that they'll do this. This has just been the impact of a single professor suggesting to the caterer why vegetarian wasn't the default option..

Other examples are university canteens having 'meat free mondays': no meat sold in the canteen on Mondays. However this led to more protests than the 'default vegetarian, meat optional' approach. I've read about some French schools that offer their students a vegatarian or vegan lunch at least once a week.

If people could encourage their companies and schools to make vegatarian food more of a default and meat/dairy the option that takes more effort, big differences could be made as this does include people that are indifferent/don't want to do any efforts without limiting anyone in their choices.

@norabird great job on moving around your money to more sustainable accounts!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 18, 2018, 10:53:40 AM
@Malaysia41 Oh no worries! I didn't feel attacked. Thanks for clarifying though. :) I honestly am not surprised that people are falling prey to disinformation. It's disheartening to see how easily Americans are fooled.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: norabird on October 18, 2018, 11:10:53 AM
@Hirondelle that's awesome about the meat free switch institutionally!

I had a super tasty avocado salad for lunch today and will have to seek that out more...though I know avocados are very thirsty for water so nothing is perfect.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 18, 2018, 11:19:41 AM
To add some positive/hopefull information to the discussion; several universities in my country have made the change to make the default menu offered at meeting/conference lunches vegetarian. It's still possible to get meat, but it has to be requested seperately (like people with allergies or vegans have to do). Turns out, only a small % of people is so addicted to their carnivorious habits that they'll do this. This has just been the impact of a single professor suggesting to the caterer why vegetarian wasn't the default option..

Other examples are university canteens having 'meat free mondays': no meat sold in the canteen on Mondays. However this led to more protests than the 'default vegetarian, meat optional' approach. I've read about some French schools that offer their students a vegatarian or vegan lunch at least once a week.

Interesting data point. This is the world* I'd like to see us flip to. Not an outright ban of meat and dairy, but a world where vegan was the default option in most places, and people could ask for dairy and meat alternatives if they really want them. It would be a way more sustainable and humane world.

Of course we still have our massively polluting militaries, car-based infrastructures, people commuting in traffic to meaningless purposeless jobs, absurdly cheap flights, and all the rest. So we wouldn't be out of danger. But we'd have fewer grieving dairy cows and way fewer methane emissions. Well, until the arctic permafrost burps up a big ol belch of methane. Which is coming.

Sorry Hirondelle I know you were trying to be positive, and here I am turning into Eeyore.

In that spirit, I give you some Pooh based vegan messaging:

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSpiTmtWnXtz2UBkXjWbLUQaZ30u49wnLzpFp873fYPk0qsVnBgYw)

edit: actually, ideally I'd like all of humanity to regard our fellow creatures as being here *with* us and not *for* us and for us to stop using animals at all.  But practically speaking, if vegan was the default, and meat and dairy were the special options that could be requested, that at least would be a much better situation, for all of us earthlings.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Yankuba on October 18, 2018, 11:31:39 AM
My conservative friend at work is an attorney and has a high IQ and he insists humans aren't impacting the weather. Climate has been changing forever, they used to grow grapes in Iceland, much of the planet used to be covered in ice, etc. The climate may be changing but it isn't because of human activity. He regularly sends me "articles" about how XYZ scientist says global warming is a hoax or how the data is being fabricated. The most recent article he sent was this one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/another-climate-alarmist-admits-real-motive-behind-warming-scare/

And then I have to put my detective hat on and find the rebuttal:

https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/11/07/how-climate-science-deniers-manufacture-quotes-convince-you-united-nations-one-big-socialist-plot

There is a lot of fake news out there and even smart people fall for it. My mother and father both have masters degrees and they asked me about some spammy email they got that asked them to opt in for a secret Trump tax cut. TWO MASTERS DEGREES (!) and they still fall for poorly constructed email spam. So of course they aren't going to believe in climate change if Fox News or the WSJ cherry picks data or takes quotes out of context.

This is why I think the only hope is to develop technologies that will suck the CO2 or methane out of the environment. Plenty of conventionally intelligent people don't believe in man made climate change. There is no way they are going to give up meat, dairy, airplanes, single use plastics, automobiles, etc. Half of Americans don't even vote, and that's free! They aren't going to give up their luxuries to save the Marshall Islands. Expecting people to make their finite lives less enjoyable (e.g. vegan diet, public transportation, staycations) for the greater good won't work. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 18, 2018, 11:40:47 AM
In that spirit, I give you some Pooh bear based vegan messaging:

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSpiTmtWnXtz2UBkXjWbLUQaZ30u49wnLzpFp873fYPk0qsVnBgYw)

It's an interesting message to be delivered from a primarily carnivorous animal to smaller prey.  Kinda puts a darker twist on it.  Is piglet marching towards Pooh's killing floor?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 18, 2018, 11:56:53 AM
My conservative friend at work is an attorney and has a high IQ and he insists humans aren't impacting the weather. Climate has been changing forever, they used to grow grapes in Iceland, much of the planet used to be covered in ice, etc. The climate may be changing but it isn't because of human activity. He regularly sends me "articles" about how XYZ scientist says global warming is a hoax or how the data is being fabricated. The most recent article he sent was this one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/another-climate-alarmist-admits-real-motive-behind-warming-scare/

And then I have to put my detective hat on and find the rebuttal:

https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/11/07/how-climate-science-deniers-manufacture-quotes-convince-you-united-nations-one-big-socialist-plot

There is a lot of fake news out there and even smart people fall for it. My mother and father both have masters degrees and they asked me about some spammy email they got that asked them to opt in for a secret Trump tax cut. TWO MASTERS DEGREES (!) and they still fall for poorly constructed email spam. So of course they aren't going to believe in climate change if Fox News or the WSJ cherry picks data or takes quotes out of context.

This is why I think the only hope is to develop technologies that will suck the CO2 or methane out of the environment. Plenty of conventionally intelligent people don't believe in man made climate change. There is no way they are going to give up meat, dairy, airplanes, single use plastics, automobiles, etc. Half of Americans don't even vote, and that's free! They aren't going to give up their luxuries to save the Marshall Islands. Expecting people to make their finite lives less enjoyable (e.g. vegan diet, public transportation, staycations) for the greater good won't work.

People are easily influenced, ie, "hackable", as discussed in this article.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/sep/14/yuval-noah-harari-the-new-threat-to-liberal-democracy

If people are easily influenced by bad information, and information is the lifeblood of democracy, does democracy really work?

(I think it is deeply flawed, but the best we have come up with so far)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 18, 2018, 12:21:41 PM
In that spirit, I give you some Pooh bear based vegan messaging:

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSpiTmtWnXtz2UBkXjWbLUQaZ30u49wnLzpFp873fYPk0qsVnBgYw)

It's an interesting message to be delivered from a primarily carnivorous animal to smaller prey.  Kinda puts a darker twist on it.  Is piglet marching towards Pooh's killing floor?

Reading up on it right now, it seems bears are not primarily carnivorous but are omnivorous with 85% of their diet coming from plants. The other 15% is with a bit of salmon or scavenged deer carcass. Anyway, Pooh strikes me more as your average berry-eatin' honey-lickin' type of bear. So, I don't think Piglet need worry about Pooh. Well, at least not until the global warming apocalypse hits - then it'll be every pooh and piglet for themselves.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wenchsenior on October 18, 2018, 12:34:06 PM
I think it's folly to believe we can convince people  like Yankuba's friend that the news they are exposed to/are exposing themselves to is based on unsound science or lies (ETA) and that by so convincing the, we will convince them then to act on climate change.

IMO, people do not usually establish or change their position on previously established philosophical or moral issues based an any evidence, no matter how robust.

People adopt most of their political stances on particular issues because of their broader philosophical or ethical beliefs, or on sheer tribalism, and then they work backward to find evidence to back up those stances, not the other way around.

People often are not developing their opinions about climate change based on reading about the science.  Instead, they believe bullshit non-scientific evidence BECAUSE their foundational worldview (consisting of some combo of the following concepts) is incompatible with most of the actions proposed for humanity to deal with the problem.

1)  God created the world and all other species for humans to use.  Therefore, it is morally good that we do so.  God would not create a world where human use could possibly destroy his creation.  But if by some chance he did, it was deliberate and humans are STILL doing his will by destroying it.  God will save the planet or not according to his will, not ours.   

2)  Evidence of environmental and socio-political breakdown just brings the rapture closer to hand. Therefore climate change is good.

3)  Human individual liberty of choice is the primary moral good, and all infringements upon it are to be resisted unless they involve preventing immediate theft of your private property or imperilment of your personal safety.  Since fighting climate change would involve imposing restrictions on individual choice, and impose economic burdens on individuals, I therefore cannot acknowledge that it  is real or I will face an impossible and irreconcilable moral choice.

4) Globalism is inherently evil and undemocratic. The US capitalist/democratic system as it exists is the greatest human achievement; and therefore nationalism is a foundational moral good.  Fighting climate change will require unprecedented cooperation with other nations, shifts away from capitalism, and subsuming our nation's dominance to that of a greater global community.  This is morally unacceptable, so I cannot acknowledge how serious climate change is or I would be faced with an impossible moral choice.

5) Climate change is real, and serious, but the upheaval in the U.S. economy required to change to a different system would cause economic ruin and/or place too much strain on the socio-political system, potentially causing a breakdown economically and politically (possibilities for U.S. breaking up as a nation or civil violence).  This risk is too great, so I will 1) deny evidence that the consequences will be that serious, or 2) shrug and deal with them as each arises, with the expectation that our nation can adapt over time.

Etc etc etc.  Persuading people with 'better evidence' is unlikely to work in a lot of cases.

As I have said before, I actually think as the consequences of climate change become more easily apparent and more dramatic (more bad storms, more droughts, water/food insecurity, disease, refugees, flooding), it might not move public opinion much at all.  In fact, I'd lay good odds that the worse the consequences get, the more entrenched the deniers will get and the more politicized and deadlocked the issue will become.  Humans are wired to become more irrational, more tribalist, and more nationalist the more they experience fear and insecurity.

Personally, I've never cared that much about the consequences of climate change to humanity.   I mean, I don't want to see increased human suffering b/c of it, but humans are like cockroaches. My species is not going to go extinct from this, and if our numbers are eventually knocked back by several billion, thems the breaks of being morons.  What fills me with insane rage is the mass extinction we are forcing on the rest of the planet.  We know we are doing it, we know we could prevent much of it, and yet we will do nothing.   That is a moral crime that is beyond forgiving and almost beyond imagining, IMO. 

At this point, my only hope is in the inherent selfishness of my species.  If practical consequences are bad enough in a short enough time scale and a politically manageable geographic scale (i.e., East and Gulf Coast cities going underwater, entire farm belt running out of water, etc), then maybe the political will might develop to push for research into a geoengineering fix. Perhaps the cities/states can find solutions that can be scaled up by default. The concept of geoengineering also revolts me on a gut level, not to mention it is dangerous as hell, but at this point, I'll take ANY sliver of hope.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wenchsenior on October 18, 2018, 12:48:50 PM
My conservative friend at work is an attorney and has a high IQ and he insists humans aren't impacting the weather. Climate has been changing forever, they used to grow grapes in Iceland, much of the planet used to be covered in ice, etc. The climate may be changing but it isn't because of human activity. He regularly sends me "articles" about how XYZ scientist says global warming is a hoax or how the data is being fabricated. The most recent article he sent was this one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/another-climate-alarmist-admits-real-motive-behind-warming-scare/

And then I have to put my detective hat on and find the rebuttal:

https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/11/07/how-climate-science-deniers-manufacture-quotes-convince-you-united-nations-one-big-socialist-plot

There is a lot of fake news out there and even smart people fall for it. My mother and father both have masters degrees and they asked me about some spammy email they got that asked them to opt in for a secret Trump tax cut. TWO MASTERS DEGREES (!) and they still fall for poorly constructed email spam. So of course they aren't going to believe in climate change if Fox News or the WSJ cherry picks data or takes quotes out of context.

This is why I think the only hope is to develop technologies that will suck the CO2 or methane out of the environment. Plenty of conventionally intelligent people don't believe in man made climate change. There is no way they are going to give up meat, dairy, airplanes, single use plastics, automobiles, etc. Half of Americans don't even vote, and that's free! They aren't going to give up their luxuries to save the Marshall Islands. Expecting people to make their finite lives less enjoyable (e.g. vegan diet, public transportation, staycations) for the greater good won't work.

People are easily influenced, ie, "hackable", as discussed in this article.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/sep/14/yuval-noah-harari-the-new-threat-to-liberal-democracy

If people are easily influenced by bad information, and information is the lifeblood of democracy, does democracy really work?

(I think it is deeply flawed, but the best we have come up with so far)

This reminds me of some research that was discussed on some podcast I listen to (can't remember what, maybe The Weeds).  They were talking about how, prior to the 60s (with the extreme polarization on civil rights/Vietnam) and again in the 80s (with polarization on abortion/Evangelicalism) the majority of registered Dems and Republicans couldn't even explain with any accuracy what their parties' policy stances were!  People didn't much associate their own beliefs about any particular issue with their party affiliation. 

It really was more like just being a fan of a football team.  I was born into a family of rabid Packer fans, and by default here I am, years later, a Packer fan.  No particular reason for it except conditioning.  Likewise, people just adopted the party  that was most popular in their family or town or social group, and didn't really even pay much attention to where parties stood on important policy issues.

I bet this is actually surprisingly true, even today.  I'll bet a big percentage of registered voters couldn't tell you the party policies on most things. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 18, 2018, 12:59:32 PM
Lastly, did any of you watch that Nate Hagens 'Blindspots and Superheroes' lecture? I'd love to know what you think.

I barely started it. I hate when presenters put up slides and read directly from them. But I'll work past that and finish it. :-)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on October 18, 2018, 01:24:31 PM
I believe climate communication is the key to solving this issue. And we are messing it up. I highly recommend listening to Per Espen Stoknes, and reading his books: https://www.ted.com/talks/per_espen_stoknes_how_to_transform_apocalypse_fatigue_into_action_on_global_warming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovfOURebDjc&t=52s
https://www.amazon.com/What-Think-About-Global-Warming/dp/1603585834/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1539890365&sr=8-1&keywords=per+espen+stoknes

This handbook is also useful: https://skepticalscience.com/docs/Debunking_Handbook.pdf
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Telecaster on October 18, 2018, 01:30:33 PM
So now we have global warming where the benefits are kind of abstract and occur in the future.  Can we really convince people to change their lifestyles because of this issue, when they won't already?  I find that unlikely.  I believe there must be systemic changes how we generate and consume energy.

On the other hand, more people brush their teeth, wear seat belts, don't drive drunk, etc than ever before.

The people I know who have changed to pollute less prefer the change and don't find it the deprivation or sacrifice you present it as. My strategy isn't to convince people, which I find provokes debate, but to help people share their environmental values and act on them, which they tend to appreciate and thank me for.

I'm sure that's the case.  But let's be clear.  At no point did I present anything as deprivation or sacrifice.  The opposite.  I said specifically "provide the individual with benefits."  Receiving benefits isn't sacrifice, I'm sure you'll agree. 

I must emphasize most people won't change their behavior even if they understand it is in their own best interests unless there are also systemic changes.   Your examples of seat belts and drunk driving are the great examples of things I'm talking about.   Back in the day, there was no requirement that occupants wear seat belts in vehicles, and penalties for DUI were fairly light and many states even allowed open containers in vehicles.  Over time, blood alcohol limits have decreased, the drinking age has been raised, penalties for DUI have greatly increased, and there have been major public relations efforts as well.   The result has been a decrease in drunken driving.  Similarly, a few years ago jurisdiction began requiring seat belt usage, which was originally a secondary offense in most places (meaning, you couldn't' be pulled over just for not wearing a seat belt), which has trended towards being a primary offense in most places (meaning you can be pulled over), and again, all this happened in concert with a public relations campaign (Click it or ticket!).  On the flip side,  exercise is something everybody knows you should do, but most people don't.   The benefits of regular exercise are obvious and undeniable, but the barrier of actually doing it is too much for most people. 

Again, I am emphasizing benefits, not sacrifice. 

Same thing with climate change.  Leading by example is surely a good thing, but falls far, far, far short of what needs to be done.  Quick example:  State of California did a study and found that 30% of conditioned air leaked into unconditioned spaces, like attics or crawlspaces.  So they changed building codes such that ducts could only leak 5% of conditioned air.  The costs of this change were virtually zero.   We already have building codes and building inspectors, the only change was that the ducts had to be installed properly.  But the savings to consumers was large.  At it is a change that is very difficult for consumers to make themselves.    Every state should have that same code.  There are dozens and dozens of examples just like that that are small individually, but huge in aggregate.   Or there are changes that are huge individually.  Like CAFE standards.    But again, that is a systemic change, that consumers cannot make on their own.   Similarly, a carbon tax would make low carbon energy sources more attractive as well as encourage efficiency.   Again, that is a systemic change, not individual action. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 18, 2018, 01:35:55 PM
Lastly, did any of you watch that Nate Hagens 'Blindspots and Superheroes' lecture? I'd love to know what you think.

I barely started it. I hate when presenters put up slides and read directly from them. But I'll work past that and finish it. :-)

Funny. I didn't even notice that. Anyway, if memory serves correctly, as he continues he speaks more naturally.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 18, 2018, 01:41:55 PM
@gaja Thanks for these resources! I'm also interested in learning more about "solutions journalism (https://www.solutionsjournalism.org/)" which seems to be in the vein (at a glance) of the links you posted below. A friend mentioned that change on quality and tone of reporting is becoming more common as the media landscape changes, but I haven't done any more reading on it.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 18, 2018, 03:22:59 PM
Visualization on climate opinions by Yale Climate Communications program: http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2018/?est=happening&type=value&geo=county
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 19, 2018, 12:36:12 AM
Visualization on climate opinions by Yale Climate Communications program: http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2018/?est=happening&type=value&geo=county

woah that's amazing.

The opinions about reality are depressing. But then you go to the policy opinions and everyone wants carbon taxes, carbon regulation, and tax relief for installing solar panels, for example.

It couldn't be more obvious that our politicians are doing what their corporate donors want, not what their constituents want. Even as their constituents are confused by the science and disinformation campaigns, they still want the government regulating carbon emissions. And what's the GOP platform as of 2016? 

Quote from: "GOP Platform page 20" link=https://gop.com/platform
We oppose any carbon tax. It would increase
energy prices across the board, hitting hardest at
the families who are already struggling to pay their
bills in the Democrats’ no-growth economy.

and

Quote from: "GOP Platform page 21" link=https://gop.com/platform
We will likewise forbid the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide

The more I learn about what's going on in the world, the more I realize the modern day corporation is a largely unchecked threat. Having worked in a fortune 500 corp for 20 years, I know from direct experience that they are short term oriented psychopaths.  I mean obviously a corporation like the one I worked at is WAY better than say, slavery. But in the end, the only goal is making more money this quarter. That's not the right priority for organizing human society.

The founders who wrote our constitution did not appreciate what the corporation would become. It's chilling to hear my family members talk about how they want our country run like a corporation. Guess what guys - your wish has been fulfilled.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 19, 2018, 01:09:29 AM
In everything, governments tend to follow rather than lead. So we as citizens are responsible for setting the right example. We must make the radical seem normal. And by the time citizen action has made government action redundant, the government will take action.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 19, 2018, 10:31:07 AM
The founders who wrote our constitution did not appreciate what the corporation would become. It's chilling to hear my family members talk about how they want our country run like a corporation. Guess what guys - your wish has been fulfilled.

But the founders did. Remember the East India Company? Th Boston Tea Party was as much anti-corporate power as anything. Just ask Thomas Jefferson:
Quote
I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government to a trial by strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: YevKassem on October 19, 2018, 10:44:06 AM
Here is an interesting one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-true-believers-are-least-likely-to-change-their-own-behavior-study-finds/

I think a lot of people are fed up with the hypocrisy that comes from some of these scientists and celebrity activists. To many, it feels like we are being lied to. If Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio preach about the need to limit carbon emissions, but are responsible themselves for releasing hundreds of times more than the average person, why should we listen to them?  It's the same idea as left-wing politicians and celebrities who have armed guards and/or act in violent movies, but then tell the rest of us that we should ban guns. The knee-jerk reaction for many is to do the opposite of what they are telling us.

People need to start holding these types accountable because they are doing more harm than good.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Telecaster on October 19, 2018, 11:35:50 AM
Here is an interesting one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-true-believers-are-least-likely-to-change-their-own-behavior-study-finds/

I think a lot of people are fed up with the hypocrisy that comes from some of these scientists and celebrity activists. To many, it feels like we are being lied to. If Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio preach about the need to limit carbon emissions, but are responsible themselves for releasing hundreds of times more than the average person, why should we listen to them?  It's the same idea as left-wing politicians and celebrities who have armed guards and/or act in violent movies, but then tell the rest of us that we should ban guns. The knee-jerk reaction for many is to do the opposite of what they are telling us.

People need to start holding these types accountable because they are doing more harm than good.

"Ideas are not responsible for what men do of them."   Our decisions should be based on science and data, not Leo DeCarprio's actions. 

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 19, 2018, 11:45:33 AM
Here is an interesting one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-true-believers-are-least-likely-to-change-their-own-behavior-study-finds/

I think a lot of people are fed up with the hypocrisy that comes from some of these scientists and celebrity activists. To many, it feels like we are being lied to. If Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio preach about the need to limit carbon emissions, but are responsible themselves for releasing hundreds of times more than the average person, why should we listen to them?  It's the same idea as left-wing politicians and celebrities who have armed guards and/or act in violent movies, but then tell the rest of us that we should ban guns. The knee-jerk reaction for many is to do the opposite of what they are telling us.

People need to start holding these types accountable because they are doing more harm than good.

"Ideas are not responsible for what men do of them."   Our decisions should be based on science and data, not Leo DeCarprio's actions.

Or, to use an idiom, "Don't cut off your nose to spite the face."

I'm also skeptical of this study. It's based on what's reported rather than what is done. If LEDs were swapped out years ago, would that be reflected?

"What'd you do this week for the environment?"
"Well, five years ago I swapped out my incandescent bulbs for LEDs. I put in more attic insulation 2 years ago."
"That's nice but what'd you do this week?"

Anyone have the full study PDF rather than the headlines? I can't find it.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on October 19, 2018, 01:07:00 PM
Here is an interesting one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-true-believers-are-least-likely-to-change-their-own-behavior-study-finds/

I think a lot of people are fed up with the hypocrisy that comes from some of these scientists and celebrity activists. To many, it feels like we are being lied to. If Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio preach about the need to limit carbon emissions, but are responsible themselves for releasing hundreds of times more than the average person, why should we listen to them?  It's the same idea as left-wing politicians and celebrities who have armed guards and/or act in violent movies, but then tell the rest of us that we should ban guns. The knee-jerk reaction for many is to do the opposite of what they are telling us.

People need to start holding these types accountable because they are doing more harm than good.

"Ideas are not responsible for what men do of them."   Our decisions should be based on science and data, not Leo DeCarprio's actions.

This.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 19, 2018, 01:41:36 PM
The founders who wrote our constitution did not appreciate what the corporation would become. It's chilling to hear my family members talk about how they want our country run like a corporation. Guess what guys - your wish has been fulfilled.

But the founders did. Remember the East India Company? Th Boston Tea Party was as much anti-corporate power as anything. Just ask Thomas Jefferson:
Quote
I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government to a trial by strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country.

I know they knew that a corporation could be powerful, and act like a government unto itself - like your example, the East India Company. But I don't think they had any idea that corporations would become what they are today. Of course I'm not a historian so I could be wrong.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 19, 2018, 03:13:11 PM
Here is an interesting one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-true-believers-are-least-likely-to-change-their-own-behavior-study-finds/

I think a lot of people are fed up with the hypocrisy that comes from some of these scientists and celebrity activists. To many, it feels like we are being lied to. If Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio preach about the need to limit carbon emissions, but are responsible themselves for releasing hundreds of times more than the average person, why should we listen to them?  It's the same idea as left-wing politicians and celebrities who have armed guards and/or act in violent movies, but then tell the rest of us that we should ban guns. The knee-jerk reaction for many is to do the opposite of what they are telling us.

People need to start holding these types accountable because they are doing more harm than good.

"Ideas are not responsible for what men do of them."   Our decisions should be based on science and data, not Leo DeCarprio's actions.

I would say that we should base our strategies to lead people on what works. Science and data may tell us our goals, but they rarely influence people.

What predicts people installing solar, for example, is less the ecological or financial benefit and more if your neighbor has it. People who know all the facts about diabetes still continue behavior that leads to losing limbs and eyesight. Facts versus inertia, comfort, and convenience is a losing battle.

That's why my strategy is to lead (not try to convince or hold accountable or blame) influential people to share their environmental values and act on them. Everybody wants clean and safe air and water, but nobody wants others telling them what to do. When they act for their reasons, as opposed to being coerced or brow-beaten with facts, they value the experience and results.

I hope to get DiCaprio on my podcast, not because I want people to blindly follow him as a celebrity, but to hear him share his environmental values and his experience acting on them, which I expect to be like everyone else's -- that they find the experience meaningful and want to continue.

Then I believe listeners will choose to explore their personal environmental values, act on them, and love their experience too. No convincing. No guilt or blame. No telling people what to do.

Most guests thank me for prompting them to act and wish they had done it earlier. For example, John Lee Dumas, whose blog makes him over $1 million annually, chose to pick up garbage from the beach every month this year and thanked me for it. You can listen here (http://joshuaspodek.com/guests/john-lee-dumas). I believe hearing a multimillionaire who could pay for someone else to pick up garbage enjoying doing it himself will influence people to do their equivalent. Listeners already tell me they are. Once they find they enjoy acting on their values, they do more, which they enjoy too.

I'm not saying what I do is the only thing to do, just one thing I saw lacking. I support science and education. I just don't rely on it to influence behavior.

The DiCaprio Foundation has already retweeted posts for several guests, so I'm not far. I hope to bring many leaders from many areas since I don't see much effective leadership among environmentalists.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on October 19, 2018, 03:36:43 PM
Excellent work, Joshua. I might try this approach with friends - ask them what future they want for their kids and we can visualise it.

I need to speak in particular to one friend who is an economist and who must know the system for pricing externalities is flawed because of politics. I'd like it if she saw some benefit in paying those externalities for the benefit of her kids. Eg getting solar panels, less "stuff" for the kids.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 19, 2018, 04:12:10 PM
Here is an interesting one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-true-believers-are-least-likely-to-change-their-own-behavior-study-finds/

I think a lot of people are fed up with the hypocrisy that comes from some of these scientists and celebrity activists. To many, it feels like we are being lied to. If Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio preach about the need to limit carbon emissions, but are responsible themselves for releasing hundreds of times more than the average person, why should we listen to them?  It's the same idea as left-wing politicians and celebrities who have armed guards and/or act in violent movies, but then tell the rest of us that we should ban guns. The knee-jerk reaction for many is to do the opposite of what they are telling us.

People need to start holding these types accountable because they are doing more harm than good.

"Ideas are not responsible for what men do of them."   Our decisions should be based on science and data, not Leo DeCarprio's actions.

That's a great ideal, but we do know that chasing ideals is a futile task do we not?.  Accountability is a much more effective tool.  Hypocrisy of others is a motivator for a lot of people.  We can't change that can we?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 19, 2018, 04:17:41 PM
Here is an interesting one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-true-believers-are-least-likely-to-change-their-own-behavior-study-finds/

I think a lot of people are fed up with the hypocrisy that comes from some of these scientists and celebrity activists. To many, it feels like we are being lied to. If Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio preach about the need to limit carbon emissions, but are responsible themselves for releasing hundreds of times more than the average person, why should we listen to them?  It's the same idea as left-wing politicians and celebrities who have armed guards and/or act in violent movies, but then tell the rest of us that we should ban guns. The knee-jerk reaction for many is to do the opposite of what they are telling us.

People need to start holding these types accountable because they are doing more harm than good.

Hundreds?  Really?  DeCaprio took a 450 foot plus yacht and his twenty of his buddies down to Brazil for the World Cup.  This yacht could probably sleep 300 people.  I would say thousands not hundreds.  Maybe even tens of thousands.  Gore's home use: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/al-gores-energy-use/
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 19, 2018, 05:42:36 PM
Here is an interesting one:

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-true-believers-are-least-likely-to-change-their-own-behavior-study-finds/

I think a lot of people are fed up with the hypocrisy that comes from some of these scientists and celebrity activists. To many, it feels like we are being lied to. If Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio preach about the need to limit carbon emissions, but are responsible themselves for releasing hundreds of times more than the average person, why should we listen to them?  It's the same idea as left-wing politicians and celebrities who have armed guards and/or act in violent movies, but then tell the rest of us that we should ban guns. The knee-jerk reaction for many is to do the opposite of what they are telling us.

People need to start holding these types accountable because they are doing more harm than good.

"Ideas are not responsible for what men do of them."   Our decisions should be based on science and data, not Leo DeCarprio's actions.

That's a great ideal, but we do know that chasing ideals is a futile task do we not?.  Accountability is a much more effective tool.  Hypocrisy of others is a motivator for a lot of people.  We can't change that can we?

Exactly. We need a carbon tax.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Meowkins on October 19, 2018, 05:48:33 PM
@JoshuaSpodek I think your approach makes this most sense and is also in line with most psych research on swaying opinion/teaching human beings. We're always more about stories than we are about facts. This is why marketing works when it's word of mouth.

I honestly don't get the ire here re: the celebrities that don't walk the talk. Sure, hypocrisy is annoying, but they're still not wrong. Climate change is a problem regardless of what DiCaprio chooses to do. That doesn't make me less likely to care about climate change, it makes me less likely to respect Al Gore or DiCaprio, which... who cares? I'll never meet them.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on October 19, 2018, 06:03:13 PM
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/airlines-carbon-tax-1.4870808

"Airlines say taxing them for their emissions will hurt their profitability".

Um. Yeah? That's the entire fucking point? You raise the price, passing the cost on to the consumer, and use that money to undo the damage flying does! (In theory). Win!

"But we should be exempted because..." ARGH. PAY YOUR FUCKING TAXES, DEADBEATS. Pay for the damage you do! How is that difficult?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 20, 2018, 04:58:00 AM
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/airlines-carbon-tax-1.4870808

"Airlines say taxing them for their emissions will hurt their profitability".

Um. Yeah? That's the entire fucking point? You raise the price, passing the cost on to the consumer, and use that money to undo the damage flying does! (In theory). Win!

"But we should be exempted because..." ARGH. PAY YOUR FUCKING TAXES, DEADBEATS. Pay for the damage you do! How is that difficult?

People make choices at least partly on price.  If price reflected true costs, we could make better choices.

It's municipal election time, and for the first time ever environmental concerns were front and center in the candidates' debate.   Having  a big polluter proposing a big plant in the area has certainly got some people paying attention. Unfortunately after 2-3 years of publicity and discussion, lots of people have no clue that this is even on the table, let alone what the potential effects could be.  Too low an information diet?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on October 20, 2018, 05:56:00 AM
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/airlines-carbon-tax-1.4870808

"Airlines say taxing them for their emissions will hurt their profitability".

Um. Yeah? That's the entire fucking point? You raise the price, passing the cost on to the consumer, and use that money to undo the damage flying does! (In theory). Win!

"But we should be exempted because..." ARGH. PAY YOUR FUCKING TAXES, DEADBEATS. Pay for the damage you do! How is that difficult?

People make choices at least partly on price.  If price reflected true costs, we could make better choices.

It's municipal election time, and for the first time ever environmental concerns were front and center in the candidates' debate.   Having  a big polluter proposing a big plant in the area has certainly got some people paying attention. Unfortunately after 2-3 years of publicity and discussion, lots of people have no clue that this is even on the table, let alone what the potential effects could be.  Too low an information diet?

For a reflection on the scale of the problem and how long it's been going on, there's this from the McMansion Hell writer Kate Wagner -
https://hmmdaily.com/2018/10/02/man-writer-against-nature/

The other day I was walking by a local harbour, just a little one up the river that has the occasional small coaster visiting, and watched for a while a pile of scrap metal being loaded.  Just that relatively small pile, no doubt little or none of it more than a two or three decades old (lots of crushed cars) going to be recycled, probably embedded many lifetimes of one person's carbon use.  We non-industrial folk living in choice residential areas (probably most of us) usually just don't see all the environmental damage that goes into making our comfortable lives: it is carefully hidden from us by the politicians and the urban planners.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 20, 2018, 01:28:33 PM
^ This.  The thing about being older is that all this increase in resource use happened during my lifetime.  I can remember when things were different, just.  Beer came in glass bottles, milk came in glass bottles, canned foods came in cans, drinks did not come in cans or plastic bottles.  Meat was wrapped in butcher paper.  There was very little prepared food (some of which I love, like some of the Uncle Ben rices).           Commuters took the bus or streetcar or commuter train to work.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: John Galt incarnate! on October 20, 2018, 04:17:13 PM
But actually, I'm fairly sure reducing food waste and generally moving away from a meat-heavy diet are far more impactful in terms of reducing carbon emissions. .

I was astonished when I learned  that wasted food is the world's third largest waste of energy.

!!!! The third largest !!!!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 21, 2018, 02:44:56 AM
Exactly. We need a carbon tax.
That's useful only if the revenue goes to alternatives and solutions. If I live 30km from work with no train to take, whether petrol is $1.50/lt or $10/lt makes little difference; I simply must get to work, and there is no other way. But if there's a train then I'll take it.

Likewise with many other things, like electricity and so on. Things like tobacco and alcohol are luxuries, not necessities, and so simply taxing the bad works well enough. But things like transport, shelter, food, heating and cooling are necessities (even though we often spend on them as luxuries, the point is some certain minimum spending on them is necessary). Since these things are necessities, we must not only tax the bad but subsidise the good.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 21, 2018, 06:51:09 AM
Exactly. We need a carbon tax.
That's useful only if the revenue goes to alternatives and solutions. If I live 30km from work with no train to take, whether petrol is $1.50/lt or $10/lt makes little difference; I simply must get to work, and there is no other way. But if there's a train then I'll take it.

I certainly agree that subsidizing alternatives is a good thing. However, I disagree with you that a carbon tax would have no value in the absence of those subsidies. In your particular example, if gasoline gets expensive enough in the absence of a train I predict that you would A) begin carpooling B) move much closer to work C) find another job, even one that pays much less, closer to your residence D) your employer would be willing to negotiate to let you work from home most of the time to avoid outcome C.

Now depending on your specific circumstances, some of those coping mechanisms might not be available (for example if you work at a job that requires your physical presence and activity, D wouldn't be feasible and you'd be forced to adopt one of the other three coping strategies, and if your job was located in an extremely expensive location, B might be unfeasible).

But if we made gas expensive enough and keep the price high enough for long enough, sooner or later you'd adopt one of the the four, or something else that hasn't occurred to me, and your gasoline consumption would decline dramatically. The outcomes would be less "fair" than with subsidies in that the poor would have their lives much more disrupted than the rich, but the changes in carbon emissions and lifestyle would still happen.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on October 21, 2018, 08:49:59 AM
If I live 30km from work with no train to take, whether petrol is $1.50/lt or $10/lt makes little difference; I simply must get to work, and there is no other way.

Move closer!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 21, 2018, 09:28:45 AM
@JoshuaSpodek I think your approach makes this most sense and is also in line with most psych research on swaying opinion/teaching human beings. We're always more about stories than we are about facts. This is why marketing works when it's word of mouth.

I honestly don't get the ire here re: the celebrities that don't walk the talk. Sure, hypocrisy is annoying, but they're still not wrong. Climate change is a problem regardless of what DiCaprio chooses to do. That doesn't make me less likely to care about climate change, it makes me less likely to respect Al Gore or DiCaprio, which... who cares? I'll never meet them.

Influential people set cultural standards. While a minority of the public may permanently change their behavior, as long as DiCaprio, Gore, etc behave a certain way, the majority will see their behavior as normal, and will view flying less, eating less meat, etc as experiments, after which they'll return to the norm. Almost no public figures are meaningfully changing their behavior.

As long as Google's top 3 executives have 8 airplanes between them (https://techcrunch.com/2011/12/11/googles-3-top-executives-have-8-private-jets/) (that story is from 2011, so not sure how accurate today), people will aspire to follow that behavior and say things like, "I simply must get to work, and there is no other way," without considering alternatives. Would Mr. Money Mustache himself speak so complacently? This community has slightly different norms as a result of his can-do behavior.

Moreover, when influential people justify behavior contrary to their goals and principles, they promote the thinking, "In principle I shouldn't fly so much, but this time it's worth it." Since everyone believes what they do is worth it, they lead everyone to keep doing what they're doing. Most Americans think things like, "I support lowering greenhouse emissions, but the SUV is safer in an accident. I'm not going to risk my child's life for climate change," which is specious and self-serving and deprives them from living by their values, but if fits with the behavior of their role models.

(I talked about this in more depth in episode 95, How Would-be Leaders Are Moving Us Backward (http://joshuaspodek.com/all-podcast))

That's why I believe getting role models to live by their values is so important. Not for their emissions, but for creating community norms.

Americans used to associate cigarettes with Humphrey Bogart. Now we associate them with cancer and few actors will smoke in public.

Making excuses robs us from a life living by our values. Not smoking is better for most people than smoking. Same with not polluting. Kicking the habit is hard, but sustaining it is easy.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 21, 2018, 09:58:42 AM
Americans used to associate cigarettes with Humphrey Bogart. Now we associate them with cancer and few actors will smoke in public.
Norms can change and quite quickly.  Watch the original "The Parent Trap" and the remake (1961, 1998).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 21, 2018, 12:36:33 PM
Exactly. We need a carbon tax.
That's useful only if the revenue goes to alternatives and solutions. If I live 30km from work with no train to take, whether petrol is $1.50/lt or $10/lt makes little difference; I simply must get to work, and there is no other way. But if there's a train then I'll take it.

Likewise with many other things, like electricity and so on. Things like tobacco and alcohol are luxuries, not necessities, and so simply taxing the bad works well enough. But things like transport, shelter, food, heating and cooling are necessities (even though we often spend on them as luxuries, the point is some certain minimum spending on them is necessary). Since these things are necessities, we must not only tax the bad but subsidise the good.

If I'm not being too snarky, I recommend reading a blog on figuring out solutions to live how you want in the face of social pressure, of rising to the occasion instead of giving in. It's called Mr. Money Mustache.

I recommend calling it an externality or pollution tax. When people pollute a shared resource, they impose costs on others. Most people agree a role of government is to regulate when one person's behavior affects others.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 21, 2018, 06:07:27 PM
I disagree with you that a carbon tax would have no value in the absence of those subsidies. In your particular example, if gasoline gets expensive enough in the absence of a train I predict that you would A) begin carpooling B) move much closer to work C) find another job, even one that pays much less, closer to your residence D) your employer would be willing to negotiate to let you work from home most of the time to avoid outcome C.
I'm speaking from the perspective of Australia, where most of our population growth has been in the capital cities, which has meant they've sprawled. New developments tend to be... just housing. Seriously. Maybe a token bit of parkland. There are no shops, no industrial areas, and usually there's a lot of dramas just to get a GP's office and a primary school. The housing is cheaper than most - and for those reasons. So people move there and drive to work somewhere else 30km or more away.


Housing closer to work and/or with existing public transport will be considerably more expensive. So people on higher incomes can do that, but people on lower incomes can't. This means that the single mother on a $15k pension can't get work at all but has to (indirectly) pay the carbon tax through the food etc she buys, and a cleaner on minimum wage of $37k is forced to drive and pay the carbon tax, but the accountant on $150k can live somewhere near a tram or train line and has a comfortable commute to work - and pays no carbon tax.


Put another way, one of the reasons we here are seeking wealth is that wealth gives you choices. Low-income people have fewer choices, and thus a carbon tax alone is a regressive tax. We'd need its revenue to go to subsidies to avoid this, to give lower-income people choices. For example, setting aside land in developments for public services, commercial and industrial and public transport use.


Thus, in the absence of subsidies, the carbon tax is simply another broad consumption tax, and is regressive, with the poor paying a larger proportion of their income than the wealthy.


In the 2015-16 financial year, total fuel consumption in Australia of all vehicles was 32.7 billion litres (.[/member]nsf/mf/9208.0/]source 1 (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs[member=9907)). Emissions are (including the whole process from exploration to coming out of your tailpipe) about 3kg CO2e per litre of fuel. Basically, 100 million tonnes of emissions. So each dollar tax per tonne of emissions (or, 1/3 of a cent per litre) would get us $100 million. A relatively modest fuel tax could fund quite a bit of public transport.


Obviously once you factor in taxing oil and natural gas too, we're talking some big dollars. This doesn't consider harder to calculate emissions like agriculture and land-clearing and so on. I'd rather see those dollars go to something other than income tax cuts to make the middle class vote for the government of the day.


Of course, it's not in prospect in Australia anyway so it's all theoretical.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: marty998 on October 21, 2018, 06:17:48 PM
@Kyle Schuant I love your argument and it makes perfect sense to me. It's the poor battlers of the outer suburb currently paying road tolls and wearing the petrol pain, whilst your inner city dwellers get buses, trains and ferries.

One small matter though, $100m will not get you much public transport.

Case in point is the Sydney light rail. Never underestimate the capacity for governments to infinitely bugger things up.

We saw what happened in Edinburgh with the tram construction, and not only did we make the same mistakes, we ended up having it cost a billion more too.

I really want to believe the right thing will be done with money raised. But in the next 6 months we have a Victorian election, a NSW election and the Federal Election and the money taps will be turned on like never before....
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: middo on October 21, 2018, 06:32:37 PM
@Kyle Schuant I love your argument and it makes perfect sense to me. It's the poor battlers of the outer suburb currently paying road tolls and wearing the petrol pain, whilst your inner city dwellers get buses, trains and ferries.

One small matter though, $100m will not get you much public transport.

Case in point is the Sydney light rail. Never underestimate the capacity for governments to infinitely bugger things up.

We saw what happened in Edinburgh with the tram construction, and not only did we make the same mistakes, we ended up having it cost a billion more too.

I really want to believe the right thing will be done with money raised. But in the next 6 months we have a Victorian election, a NSW election and the Federal Election and the money taps will be turned on like never before....


I think Kyle's mistake is to use a $1 per tonne of emissions.  Most of the modelling I have seen talks of an absolute minimum of $12 per tonne, and an expectation of $20 per tonne is common.  At that price, not $100 million but 2 billion would be raised every year, which again is not enough for all of the construction costs of light rail extensions etc, but would be a nice addition to current expenditures on public transport. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 21, 2018, 06:49:54 PM
I think Kyle's mistake is to use a $1 per tonne of emissions.  Most of the modelling I have seen talks of an absolute minimum of $12 per tonne, and an expectation of $20 per tonne is common.  At that price, not $100 million but 2 billion would be raised every year, which again is not enough for all of the construction costs of light rail extensions etc, but would be a nice addition to current expenditures on public transport.

$2B is plenty for some bus routes though, eh?

It's obvious that a carbon externality tax would be harder on the poor; most taxes are, including any current gas tax and general sales tax. It might bend consumer demand, however, as even some working poor drive trucks by themselves to their jobs.


The original Washington state carbon tax proposal was tax revenue neutral. That is, the poor would receive more back than they paid via tax credits unless they were voracious consumers of fuel.

The current proposal, from a brief reading, has 75% dedicated to power and mass transit, 20% to land conservation, and 5% to communities.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 21, 2018, 07:50:29 PM
I disagree with you that a carbon tax would have no value in the absence of those subsidies. In your particular example, if gasoline gets expensive enough in the absence of a train I predict that you would A) begin carpooling B) move much closer to work C) find another job, even one that pays much less, closer to your residence D) your employer would be willing to negotiate to let you work from home most of the time to avoid outcome C.
I'm speaking from the perspective of Australia, where most of our population growth has been in the capital cities, which has meant they've sprawled. New developments tend to be... just housing. Seriously. Maybe a token bit of parkland. There are no shops, no industrial areas, and usually there's a lot of dramas just to get a GP's office and a primary school. The housing is cheaper than most - and for those reasons. So people move there and drive to work somewhere else 30km or more away.


Housing closer to work and/or with existing public transport will be considerably more expensive. So people on higher incomes can do that, but people on lower incomes can't. This means that the single mother on a $15k pension can't get work at all but has to (indirectly) pay the carbon tax through the food etc she buys, and a cleaner on minimum wage of $37k is forced to drive and pay the carbon tax, but the accountant on $150k can live somewhere near a tram or train line and has a comfortable commute to work - and pays no carbon tax.


Put another way, one of the reasons we here are seeking wealth is that wealth gives you choices. Low-income people have fewer choices, and thus a carbon tax alone is a regressive tax. We'd need its revenue to go to subsidies to avoid this, to give lower-income people choices. For example, setting aside land in developments for public services, commercial and industrial and public transport use.


Thus, in the absence of subsidies, the carbon tax is simply another broad consumption tax, and is regressive, with the poor paying a larger proportion of their income than the wealthy.

A carbon tax really would be regressive (most non-income based taxes tend to work out that way), but I don't see anything in what you're posting that suggests Australians would be unable to start carpooling if the cost of fuel got high enough. At a high enough tax rate, you'd probably also see some net inward migration back into city centers through more households choosing to share expensive central apartments or houses rather than living in far flung cheaper/larger places. The latter is pretty much essential in both the USA and Australia, as the economics effective public transit system simply don't work when people are as spread out as they are now, but they start to become much more viable in places where people live at higher densities.

Now it would certainly impair people's standard's of living in a whole bunch of ways. But it is simply incorrect to suggest that a carbon tax wouldn't cause people to alter their behavior to consume less fuel.

If you want to avoid the regressive implications of a carbon tax, the simplest way to do this, and the one that produces the fewest economic inefficiencies, is to just refund all the money collected by the carbon tax evenly to each person living in the area in which the carbon tax is imposed, regardless of their fuel consumption. You still get all the changes in behavior I listed above, but the poor are not longer worse off, and in many cases may come out ahead if they can alter their lifestyle to require less driving while still collecting a refund check from the people who are unwilling to alter their lifestyles. As bacchi mentioned, I believe this is what was originally proposed in Washington state, although the newer ballot initiative uses the money that would be raised to simply subsidize a variety of state spending plans.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 21, 2018, 11:33:09 PM
One small matter though, $100m will not get you much public transport.
I don't expect it to. It would have been clearer for me to say, "for each $1 a tonne of emissions, you get $100 million of revenue." It was also to illustrate that each 1/3 cent extra per litre on petrol/diesel could raise $100 million, so that a relatively small tax could raise a significant revenue. Here petrol prices vary quite a lot. Just in the last 45 days the average price around Melbourne has been as low as $1.47/lt and as high as $1.67/lt. So a carbon tax equivalent to even 5c/lt (~$17/t CO2e) would be lost in the noise of day-to-day variation of prices. And that's $1.5 billion.


Really capturing the economic value of the emissions, honestly I think a fair rate would be $1,000/t CO2e. Which would make petrol $3/lt more expensive, about $4.50/lt. That'd be $160 for a tank even for a small car like ours. Since it enables you to earn much more money than that it's actually reasonable. I mean, just for the petrol and diesel burned that'd be $100 billion, compared to our economy of $1,330 billion - is all our driving to and from work and trucking things around worth at 7.5% of the economy? Well, stop all cars and trucks overnight and see what happens to the economy, it'll decline by a lot more than 7.5%. So, $1,000 a tonne is actually reasonable. And $100 billion would build a lot of trains and solar panels and all that.


However, imposing this level of tax overnight would of course absolutely devastate the economy, like tripling minimum wage overnight.


A more sensible approach is just to start with a token tax, and have it enshrined in law how it'll rise each year. Just as we did for tobacco tax, we keep raising the rate until we get the outcome we want - a low-carbon economy. If you keep the tax the same then behaviour doesn't change much, there's a small change and then people and businesses adapt. You want to keep forcing the change, which means a rising tax.


However, currently governments of either of the main sides of politics are forever promising to cut taxes, so imposing a new tax and committing to raising it every year would go completely against that.


Likewise, simply imposing a carbon tax would just mean we import more carbon-intensive stuff. Let's say you tax coal when it comes out of the ground, guess what, we'll be buying foreign coal instead of exporting it. Which means even more money flowing overseas. Thus, in the absence of a world carbon price, we'd have to put a carbon tax on imported stuff. But that's tariffs, and that's prohibited by the WTO. And governments of either of the main sides of politics are pro-free trade these days, and carbon tariffs would go completely against that.


So I don't think it'll happen. Central governments are failing to take necessary action, they're too busy with trivialities. It has to be state/regional, local and individual. Like in Australia, while the federal government was arguing about whether to keep the renewables target for 2030, the state governments went ahead and will exceed it by 2020.


Forget about Canberra, Washington, London, Paris, Tokyo and Berlin. They're busy rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Get in the lifeboat and start rowing.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sol on October 21, 2018, 11:43:51 PM
Really capturing the economic value of the emissions, honestly I think a fair rate would be $1,000/t CO2e.
...
A more sensible approach is just to start with a token tax, and have it enshrined in law how it'll rise each year.

Washington's carbon tax ballot measure (https://www.sos.wa.gov/_assets/elections/initiatives/finaltext_1482.pdf), if it passes this time, would start at $15/ton and ramp up $2 per year plus inflation, until it hits $55/ton.  It's expected to raise over two billion dollars in the first five years.

And to address the concerns raised above about it being regressive, the revenue raised is specifically targeted at low-income communities and places most directly impacted by climate change.  It's not a perfect law, but it's better than the version that failed in 2016 and I expect that it will pass.

Ask me again in three weeks.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on October 22, 2018, 02:11:43 AM
I don't see anything in what you're posting that suggests Australians would be unable to start carpooling if the cost of fuel got high enough.
The poorer someone is, the more likely they are to be working odd hours rather than the nine-to-five, which makes carpooling much less practical.

At a high enough tax rate, you'd probably also see some net inward migration back into city centers through more households choosing to share expensive central apartments or houses rather than living in far flung cheaper/larger places.
Fine if you are single, doesn't work so well if you have kids.


I agree with your general thesis, though.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 22, 2018, 03:08:00 AM
Car-pooling is one thing, but most don't appreciate the other uses of fossil fuels.


For example, we see here [.[/member]nsf/mf/9208.0/]http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9208.0/ (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs[member=9907)] that in Australia in FY2015-16, we had 3,550,097 freight vehicles which travelled 73,613 million km carrying an average of 2.8t cargo each. Being larger, they are of course less fuel efficient, for example the linked article notes that articulated trucks consumed an average of 56.3lt/100km vs 10.6lt/100km for passenger cars. So an extra $1/lt would mean an extra $56 for each 100km travelled - and those big trucks commonly travel a long way, for example it's 1,700km from Brisbane to Melbourne. Bananas just got more expensive.


And then there are coal-fired stations producing electricity, it's a no-brainer to shut these down, but we do like to have gas-fired stations still, it's the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and can be quickly fired up for times of peak demand (unlike coal, nuclear etc, which take a day or more to ramp up - or down).


And natural gas is used to make fertiliser, and oil to make pesticides, and oil to transport goods in ships around the world, and bitumen on roads, and coking coal for steel, and so on and so forth.


So a simple tax on fossil fuels would have a flow-on cost to a lot of other things. And again, if the aim of a tax is to change behaviour, then alternatives must be available. That's why I say, starting low and building up would work best, to allow adaptations to happen. For example, with higher fuel prices, more local production of food and other goods would become favoured, but these all take time to fire up, you can't just build a widget factory or have a fully-grown fruit orchard in a month.


I don't think a carbon tax in one city is going to do much. It's like the firearms laws in one city. People will just cross the city lines to buy fuel, etc. Local subsidies can work, but local punitive taxes not so well.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 22, 2018, 05:41:50 AM
I don't see anything in what you're posting that suggests Australians would be unable to start carpooling if the cost of fuel got high enough.
The poorer someone is, the more likely they are to be working odd hours rather than the nine-to-five, which makes carpooling much less practical.

Okay, this is a good point. Thanks Former Player.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 22, 2018, 07:56:20 AM
If I live 30km from work with no train to take, whether petrol is $1.50/lt or $10/lt makes little difference; I simply must get to work, and there is no other way.

Move closer!

I live 24 km from work, and regularly bike commute to and from.  Adding an extra 6 km is still doable.  Net costs of bike commuting are lower than the net costs of driving to work (even if you occasionally buy fancy cycling clothing, and own a med-level not crap bike).  If you need to get to work, there are alternatives to driving.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Barbaebigode on October 22, 2018, 09:02:28 AM
Isn't buying an hybrid or an electric vehicle the most likely solution to be adopted by people with similar commutes as Kyle's? No big lifestyle changes needed in that case.

And of course, a carbon tax is also about compensating the damage we cause to third parties.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 22, 2018, 09:10:56 AM
And of course, a carbon tax is also about compensating the damage we cause to third parties.

Huh, thanks for pointing this out. I was focusing on a carbon tax solely as being about figuring out the most efficient way to change people's behavior. But yes, you could make the case solely from a "we need this money to start trying to mitigate the consequences of climate change on our population" standpoint as well.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sol on October 22, 2018, 09:14:51 AM
I don't think a carbon tax in one city is going to do much. It's like the firearms laws in one city. People will just cross the city lines to buy fuel, etc. Local subsidies can work, but local punitive taxes not so well.

How about carbon taxes for a whole state?

It's much harder to cross state lines to buy electricity than guns.  And we already have wide disparities in gas prices across state lines without horribly disrupting the market, so I'm not sure that's a valid argument.  Our neighbors to the north already have a similar carbon fee, so on at least one border Washington would be reducing price discrepancies across the border, not making them worse.

There's been a lot of rhetoric around Washington State's carbon tax ballot measure that people are voting on right now, and I have been absolutely shocked at the levels of deceit and deception that oil companies have used to try to convince people to vote against it.  They openly lie about what's in this law in ways that anyone can fact check with 15 seconds of googling. 

If you prefer subsidies to punitive measures, where does the money come from?  Washington is planning to impose a per-ton fee on fossil fuels, then use that revenue to fund subsidies for individuals and industry that need the help.  The former version, which failed, just taxed carbon and then gave tax rebates to everyone so the "subsidies" were evenly distributed financial incentives.  The new version this year is much more targeted about who it gives money to.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Telecaster on October 22, 2018, 02:13:56 PM
Really capturing the economic value of the emissions, honestly I think a fair rate would be $1,000/t CO2e.
...
A more sensible approach is just to start with a token tax, and have it enshrined in law how it'll rise each year.

Washington's carbon tax ballot measure (https://www.sos.wa.gov/_assets/elections/initiatives/finaltext_1482.pdf), if it passes this time, would start at $15/ton and ramp up $2 per year plus inflation, until it hits $55/ton.  It's expected to raise over two billion dollars in the first five years.

And to address the concerns raised above about it being regressive, the revenue raised is specifically targeted at low-income communities and places most directly impacted by climate change.  It's not a perfect law, but it's better than the version that failed in 2016 and I expect that it will pass.

Ask me again in three weeks.

Hmm, I liked the failed version quite a bit better.  I-732 (the failed initiative) would been a simple revenue neutral carbon tax, with 100% of the tax rebated back to taxpayers on a progressive scale.  Two features I liked in particular is that it relied on simple market forces to find the more efficient ways to reduce carbon emission.   The tax would have topped out at $100/ton of CO2.   The other thing is that Washington State has a regressive tax structure, and rebating the tax back to low-income citizens would have blunted that.

The current initiative (I-1631) collects the tax money, and then spends it.  The tax tops out at $50/ton (IIRC).    But it isn't clear to me what most of the money gets spent on.   For example 35% of the money goes to  "communities within pollution and health action areas."  The definition of those areas will be determined later.   Many of the example projects on the I-1631 website are things like habitat restoration.  Surely good things to do, but have little to do with climate change.  10% of the money goes to the tribes, which can be spent on projects the tribes select.  Those projects may or may not be worthwhile and may or may not have anything to do with climate change.   There is a board that approves the projects, but 14 of the 15 members are political appointees.   Are they trustworthy stewards, or operatives will to cut deals to get their own pet projects funded?  No idea.  In reading through the initiative, there is a very large amount of things that are to be determined later, especially went to comes to what exactly the money gets spent on.   In Washington State by far the largest contributor to CO2 is transportation.  But that component seems to be downplayed in the initiative. 

It seems the main goal was to spread the money around much as possible in order to get buy-in from as many groups as possible.   Perhaps that's what you have to do to get it passed.  I'm concerned tjat by spending the money so broadly there won't be enough left to actually tackle CO2 emissions. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sol on October 22, 2018, 02:18:11 PM
Hmm, I liked the failed version quite a bit better.

Most educated people like that approach better, but we're not talking about educated people, we're talking about getting enough votes to pass.  I-732 didn't attract ANY republican support, even though it was essentially the republican version of a carbon tax.  It didn't attract enough left wing support either, because it was too white bread plain vanilla for the social justice crowd.  So the new approach is to try to draw in some of the lefties, since they couldn't possibly lose any more conservatives than the zero they got last time.

Yea politics!  The only human endeavor where the shittiest ideas inevitably rise to the top.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 22, 2018, 04:34:33 PM
If you prefer subsidies to punitive measures, where does the money come from?
I prefer both, working together. And a $1,000/t tax today would be punitive, but a (say) $20/t which rises each year would simply be encouraging the market in one direction.


I think both together work best. But I also think that taxes work best when done on a large scale, while subsidies can work even on a small scale. If my local council area implements a carbon tax on its 160,000 people it's not going to have much effect on that area's emissions, but if buys a bunch of CNG, electric or ethanol-powered buses, or puts in a lot of cycle lanes, or whacks up wind turbines and solar panels everywhere, then that will have some effect on our emissions.


As you said, it has to be paid for somehow. And this really is one of the issues we're facing in the Western world, that the central governments have most of the revenue but are the most reluctant to take effective action, while the local and state/regional governments are willing to take action but don't have the revenue. It's one reason I'm in favour of devolution. But again, it's not something likely to happen in the near future, or rather it'll happen but it'll be unplanned and messy and piecemeal.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: middo on October 22, 2018, 05:07:39 PM
As an Australian, we have an island country, so borders are less of an issue.  My thoughts for a long long time are that we should:


These would cause a one-off increase in costs, but would also provide a clear price signal for any product that uses fossil fuels in its manufacture, delivery and sale.


Come the revolution....
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 22, 2018, 06:23:29 PM
As an Australian, we have an island country, so borders are less of an issue.  My thoughts for a long long time are that we should:

  • Tax any fossil fuel where it leaves the ground or comes into the country, at a minimum of $20 a tonne of emissions, ramping up over time.
  • Place an import tax on goods coming into the country from jurisdictions that do not have at least a complementary carbon tax of similar proportions, at a level that adds in the cost of the untaxed carbon embedded in the item.
  • Provide a subsidy for export goods to countries that do not have a carbon tax or similar regime to Australia to compensate the extra cost for exporters.
  • Use the funds raised, which will be significant, to provide incentives for locally produced renewable technologies, and to fund research into alternative energy management and transport technologies

These would cause a one-off increase in costs, but would also provide a clear price signal for any product that uses fossil fuels in its manufacture, delivery and sale.


Come the revolution....
This is a good list. The theme is clear: price in the externalities and use the money to incentivize changes in behavior and fund programs to reduce carbon. I like the way this deals with imports and exports, which addresses the borders issue (still an issue for carbon in a global marketplace).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 22, 2018, 06:52:48 PM
As an Australian, we have an island country, so borders are less of an issue.  My thoughts for a long long time are that we should:

  • Tax any fossil fuel where it leaves the ground or comes into the country, at a minimum of $20 a tonne of emissions, ramping up over time.
  • Place an import tax on goods coming into the country from jurisdictions that do not have at least a complementary carbon tax of similar proportions, at a level that adds in the cost of the untaxed carbon embedded in the item.
  • Provide a subsidy for export goods to countries that do not have a carbon tax or similar regime to Australia to compensate the extra cost for exporters.
  • Use the funds raised, which will be significant, to provide incentives for locally produced renewable technologies, and to fund research into alternative energy management and transport technologies

These would cause a one-off increase in costs, but would also provide a clear price signal for any product that uses fossil fuels in its manufacture, delivery and sale.


Come the revolution....
This is a good list. The theme is clear: price in the externalities and use the money to incentivize changes in behavior and fund programs to reduce carbon. I like the way this deals with imports and exports, which addresses the borders issue (still an issue for carbon in a global marketplace).

We see this in so many things, not just CO2.  Can't swim in the polluted lakes?  Put in swimming pools, up goes the GDP.  Roads not well maintained, body shops get more work, up goes the GDP.  Build energy-inefficient housing, so more need for more winter heating and summer cooling, up goes the GDP.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: OurTown on October 25, 2018, 11:15:17 AM
The advent of electric-robotic cars in the 2020s will have a substantial impact in the fullness of time.  Also, switching from fossil fuel electric power production to nuclear on a large scale would be pretty huge.  I don't know if that is going to happen, but it is a technology that already exists today.  You can argue about the downside of nuclear, but I think it passes a basic cost-benefit analysis.  Additionally, getting a handle on the population growth issue is a necessity.  Free birth control worldwide should be a priority goal for every thinking person.

All the personal guilt trip stuff (e.g. why aren't you a vegan already?) isn't really going to work, and it just further polarizes the identity politics of this issue.  My 2 cents.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: bacchi on October 25, 2018, 03:26:54 PM
All the personal guilt trip stuff (e.g. why aren't you a vegan already?) isn't really going to work, and it just further polarizes the identity politics of this issue.  My 2 cents.

Yeah, there's no need to frame it as, "Stop eating meat! Don't you care about the environment?!?" We can instead frame it as a pollution tax, giving the consumer a choice. Anyone can drive an F250 pickup to their office job but it'll cost way more than a Civic. Similarly, one can drive a Leaf and pay a lot more to fly to Chile and Europe twice a year.

It's great that most (all?) Canadian provinces have a carbon tax but it's unfortunate that Canada is still high in the CO2/capita rankings. Is it too low to affect consumer choices?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on October 25, 2018, 03:39:07 PM
Isn't buying an hybrid or an electric vehicle the most likely solution to be adopted by people with similar commutes as Kyle's? N
No, because both are more expensive here. As well for pure electric, you're also dealing with the cost of electricity, which has risen a lot in recent years.

Essentially what happens is that the money people save on mortgage by living in a place in Woop Woop they end up spending on transport - I mean, if you're talking about the 10-30 years of a mortgage. It's cheap for a reason. However, as has been discussed on this forum many times, lower income people often end up spending more on things than higher income people, in the long run, because they lack the money to do a big one-off spend that'll last them. For example, buying the $20/50 roll toilet paper rather than the $6/6 roll. For the person on a $250pw pension, that $14 is marked for somewhere else.

Likewise, a hybrid vehicle may save someone with a long commute money over several years, but it costs more today.

As a guideline, if you ever look at a problem and find yourself saying "It's simple, we just -" then you're probably wrong.

This article (https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/vicar-prays-for-train-as-study-shows-1-4m-melburnians-can-t-reach-public-transport-20181025-p50bw4.html) talks about the transport situation here in Melbourne.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: middo on October 25, 2018, 04:03:43 PM
Isn't buying an hybrid or an electric vehicle the most likely solution to be adopted by people with similar commutes as Kyle's? N
No, because both are more expensive here. As well for pure electric, you're also dealing with the cost of electricity, which has risen a lot in recent years.

Essentially what happens is that the money people save on mortgage by living in a place in Woop Woop they end up spending on transport - I mean, if you're talking about the 10-30 years of a mortgage. It's cheap for a reason. However, as has been discussed on this forum many times, lower income people often end up spending more on things than higher income people, in the long run, because they lack the money to do a big one-off spend that'll last them. For example, buying the $20/50 roll toilet paper rather than the $6/6 roll. For the person on a $250pw pension, that $14 is marked for somewhere else.

Likewise, a hybrid vehicle may save someone with a long commute money over several years, but it costs more today.

As a guideline, if you ever look at a problem and find yourself saying "It's simple, we just -" then you're probably wrong.

This article (https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/vicar-prays-for-train-as-study-shows-1-4m-melburnians-can-t-reach-public-transport-20181025-p50bw4.html) talks about the transport situation here in Melbourne.

I'm not sure I agree with all that you are saying about transport in Melbourne.  The average house price in Cranbourne East (in the article) is $580,000 for closer to a 4 bedroom house than a 3 bedroom house.  A house on a train line in a new similar suburb to the north in Mernda is $575,000 for a similar 4 bedroom house.  For $5000 less you can live on a train line, but people are currently choosing to not do so.

This is personal choice, and it isn't logical if transport is a consideration when buying a house.  So obviously people make choices about living in the outer fringe of Melbourne without giving serious consideration to their long term transport costs.  As a MMM reader, that shouldn't really surprise anyone here.  Transport is a hidden cost for most people. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Prairie Stash on October 25, 2018, 05:12:54 PM

It's great that most (all?) Canadian provinces have a carbon tax but it's unfortunate that Canada is still high in the CO2/capita rankings. Is it too low to affect consumer choices?
The carbon tax was announced this month, coming into effect for 2019. Canada has a carbon tax starting in 2019 at $20/tonne and rising to $50 in 2022. Some jurisdictions have their own equivalent programs but the federal tax is the backstop and covers the entire country. Carbon tax and marijuana were announced in the same month, its a wild country.

Canada is also phasing out Coal by 2030 (60 million tonnes of GHG/year are being decomissioned), likely using a combination of Natural gas and other sources as replacements (add in 20-30 million tonnes for replacement electricity sources). But thats a plan that started in 2008, its a long term plan that is on course, some plants have already ceased operations; anything that is getting old is not being refurbished. That's just one example of industrial cuts that are concurrently happening.

The point is that things take time. Is enough being done? Nope, but some things are still in their infancy. We have personal cuts and industrial cuts, work is being done at multiple levels.

Stay tuned for 3 years, the data hasn't arrived to yet on how much it changes consumer behaviour.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on October 26, 2018, 06:51:43 AM

It's great that most (all?) Canadian provinces have a carbon tax but it's unfortunate that Canada is still high in the CO2/capita rankings. Is it too low to affect consumer choices?
The carbon tax was announced this month, coming into effect for 2019. Canada has a carbon tax starting in 2019 at $20/tonne and rising to $50 in 2022. Some jurisdictions have their own equivalent programs but the federal tax is the backstop and covers the entire country. Carbon tax and marijuana were announced in the same month, its a wild country.

Canada is also phasing out Coal by 2030 (60 million tonnes of GHG/year are being decomissioned), likely using a combination of Natural gas and other sources as replacements (add in 20-30 million tonnes for replacement electricity sources). But thats a plan that started in 2008, its a long term plan that is on course, some plants have already ceased operations; anything that is getting old is not being refurbished. That's just one example of industrial cuts that are concurrently happening.

The point is that things take time. Is enough being done? Nope, but some things are still in their infancy. We have personal cuts and industrial cuts, work is being done at multiple levels.

Stay tuned for 3 years, the data hasn't arrived to yet on how much it changes consumer behaviour.

I'm on a 'low information diet' for a while (got overwhelmed with what's going on at the moment so I'm going cold turkey), but it seems like the carbon tax... is being treated as an election bribe - not a serious attempt. We're getting so much rebated in Ontario that the government will actually be giving us money. Huh? They should be using the revenue to... um... reduce carbon in the atmosphere, no?

They need to seriously raise the price of fuel if they want to see fewer pickups. I'm going back to the UK where fairly normal cars are getting as good, or better, fuel efficiency than a Prius does here - 4 l/100km. Not solely because fuel is $2/litre, but I'm sure it helps (and we seem to just adapt - we'll pay $50 a week on fuel, and buy a vehicle that burns that much, regardless of the cost of said fuel!).

Dunno. All these threads about climate stuff make me feel pretty bad. Especially since the next year is going to be horrible in terms of flying for me and my family... though it should be a one off bad year.

I will be donating to charity, to plant trees - not that offsetting is the answer, but it's better than doing nothing.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 26, 2018, 06:57:50 AM
I'm on a 'low information diet' for a while (got overwhelmed with what's going on at the moment so I'm going cold turkey), but it seems like the carbon tax... is being treated as an election bribe - not a serious attempt. We're getting so much rebated in Ontario that the government will actually be giving us money. Huh? They should be using the revenue to... um... reduce carbon in the atmosphere, no?

They need to seriously raise the price of fuel if they want to see fewer pickups. I'm going back to the UK where fairly normal cars are getting as good, or better, fuel efficiency than a Prius does here - 4 l/100km. Not solely because fuel is $2/litre, but I'm sure it helps (and we seem to just adapt - we'll pay $50 a week on fuel, and buy a vehicle that burns that much, regardless of the cost of said fuel!).

Rebating the tax back to people makes it a lot more palatable to keep cranking up the level of taxation going forward. Without a rebate, you'll start to get stories about how the carbon tax is ruining the lives of the poor as the tax per ton increases. With the rebate, many of the poor will actually be better off than before the tax.

And you do need to crank the tax up high enough that people really notice the increase in prices if you want people to change their behavior quickly.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: PoutineLover on October 26, 2018, 07:19:31 AM
Last time I was in Ontario I was flabbergasted by how many people had huge pick up trucks. People who own them don't seem to need them for work 80% of the time, and they all complain about how expensive gas is. It's not going to be fun for them, and they won't be able to sell easily. I hope this is the shock they need to start being more concious of their footprint, but in the meantime before they get new cars they'll suffer. The rebate just eases that transition a little.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 26, 2018, 07:42:41 AM
Last time I was in Ontario I was flabbergasted by how many people had huge pick up trucks. People who own them don't seem to need them for work 80% of the time, and they all complain about how expensive gas is. It's not going to be fun for them, and they won't be able to sell easily. I hope this is the shock they need to start being more concious of their footprint, but in the meantime before they get new cars they'll suffer. The rebate just eases that transition a little.

It's not so bad in the cities, but rural Ontario certainly has a pickup truck problem.  I went for a job interview at Bruce nuclear just outside of Kincardine and 9/10 vehicles in the parking lot were large pickup trucks.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: PoutineLover on October 26, 2018, 10:47:49 AM
Last time I was in Ontario I was flabbergasted by how many people had huge pick up trucks. People who own them don't seem to need them for work 80% of the time, and they all complain about how expensive gas is. It's not going to be fun for them, and they won't be able to sell easily. I hope this is the shock they need to start being more concious of their footprint, but in the meantime before they get new cars they'll suffer. The rebate just eases that transition a little.

It's not so bad in the cities, but rural Ontario certainly has a pickup truck problem.  I went for a job interview at Bruce nuclear just outside of Kincardine and 9/10 vehicles in the parking lot were large pickup trucks.
This was in Windsor, not rural but not a big city. As I was walking around it seemed like over half of the homes had a pick up in the driveway. Only a couple of them showed signs of being work trucks.
In Montreal I hardly ever see them, except for corporate vehicles. Parallel parking and idling in traffic would be horrendous. Although it would probably help over potholes.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on October 26, 2018, 01:22:59 PM
Last time I was in Ontario I was flabbergasted by how many people had huge pick up trucks. People who own them don't seem to need them for work 80% of the time, and they all complain about how expensive gas is. It's not going to be fun for them, and they won't be able to sell easily. I hope this is the shock they need to start being more concious of their footprint, but in the meantime before they get new cars they'll suffer. The rebate just eases that transition a little.

It's not so bad in the cities, but rural Ontario certainly has a pickup truck problem.  I went for a job interview at Bruce nuclear just outside of Kincardine and 9/10 vehicles in the parking lot were large pickup trucks.
This was in Windsor, not rural but not a big city. As I was walking around it seemed like over half of the homes had a pick up in the driveway. Only a couple of them showed signs of being work trucks.
In Montreal I hardly ever see them, except for corporate vehicles. Parallel parking and idling in traffic would be horrendous. Although it would probably help over potholes.

Windsor = car plant workers = employee pricing. Also cheap petrol.

Rural Quebec is as bad as rural Ontario, I think. It's certainly a 'class' thing - if you're an office worker type, you drive a sedan. If you're anything in construction, or whatnot - and certainly young men - a truck is the thing.

Trucks are cool! Look how high off the ground you can get them with lift kits and huge tires! And the worst thing is, the middle aged men with families just buy the 4-door version...
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Abe on October 26, 2018, 09:58:59 PM
I'm always surprised to see actual large objects in private pickup trucks, regardless of where I've lived (rural NC, Chicago, and now LA). Wow! You're using the truck for its intended purpose? Crazy! Granted, you could probably fit a couple 2x4 in your car or small SUV (tall car) if you tried - but whatever. The most ridiculous situation were people who bought a new truck that cost almost 1 year's wages and then complained about the gas prices when they were $2.50 a gallon.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 29, 2018, 09:22:03 PM
So I'll admit i didn't read this whole thread, but I'll chime in with my optimism.  This post assumes the crisis is invetiably coming/here, which is something I still hear debate over.


Yall are forgetting what the human race is capable of, and how unbelievably smart we are.  If you had told someone in 1937 that in under 10 years we would have the capability of building a single bomb that could destroy the entire planet, you'd be laughed at.  In 1938 nuclear fission was discovered, and the Manhattan project was an unbelievable project of unbelievable scale executed unbelievably quickly

A couple decades later, the space race is even more inspiring.  This is a humanity that had just stumbled into the AIRFOIL a couple DECADES ago, and in basically the blink of an eye we have human beings on camping trips on other celestial bodies

Someone on this thread said that humans are bad at anything but a short term crisis.  I think that's not quite right, we just need to feel the crisis at all.  The reason nothing is happening is because, well, when I look outside, nothing is happening.  It might take some actual issues arising before a crisis is felt, but once there is an actual crisis at hand, I think we'll see a human cooperation operation that puts those two to shame.  If I'm being exceptionally optimistic, this might be the kick in the pants humanity needs to cooperate globally. This might be the kick in the pants humanity needs to restructure it's cities to use muscle for 99% of tasks, and solar power for the rest.  It might be the kick we need to get to that star trek utopia.

In just the last couple years there have been some pretty amazing inventions that scrub CO2 from the atmosphere, and I'm sure there are more to come, not to mention the physics that hasn't even been discovered yet.  I was just doing research last year on new insanely efficient organic perovskite solar materials that weren't even remotely feasible 2 years before that, and that's small fry low budget University stuff.  Imagine what can happen with a Manhattan project or a space race only orders of magnitude larger.

I think it will create a new generation of heros, and I'll be in the middle of it helping if possible.

So no, I, for one, don't believe "we're all fucked", I have more faith in the collective cooperation of humanity than that.

I do, however, believe that something needs to change, and I'm optimistic that it will.



The first order of business is actually getting everybody to feel like there is, in fact, a threat.




-----background, guess I'll find out if anyone I know is on here, lol------
Bachelors of Engineering (electrical)
Halfway through masters of materials science
Was a system level expert and engineer helping build the radiation budget instrument, before it was cancelled.  I knew the system photons to bits.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-cancels-earth-science-sensor-set-for-2021-launch

A lot of my coworkers just completed the GOSAT-2/TANSO-FTS-2 that launched into orbit yesterday
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/10/japanese-h-iia-gosat-2-earth-observation-satellite/
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on October 30, 2018, 05:36:13 AM
So I'll admit i didn't read this whole thread, but I'll chime in with my optimism.  This post assumes the crisis is invetiably coming/here, which is something I still hear debate over.


Yall are forgetting what the human race is capable of, and how unbelievably smart we are.  If you had told someone in 1937 that in under 10 years we would have the capability of building a single bomb that could destroy the entire planet, you'd be laughed at.  In 1938 nuclear fission was discovered, and the Manhattan project was an unbelievable project of unbelievable scale executed unbelievably quickly

A couple decades later, the space race is even more inspiring.  This is a humanity that had just stumbled into the AIRFOIL a couple DECADES ago, and in basically the blink of an eye we have human beings on camping trips on other celestial bodies

Someone on this thread said that humans are bad at anything but a short term crisis.  I think that's not quite right, we just need to feel the crisis at all.  The reason nothing is happening is because, well, when I look outside, nothing is happening.  It might take some actual issues arising before a crisis is felt, but once there is an actual crisis at hand, I think we'll see a human cooperation operation that puts those two to shame.  If I'm being exceptionally optimistic, this might be the kick in the pants humanity needs to cooperate globally. This might be the kick in the pants humanity needs to restructure it's cities to use muscle for 99% of tasks, and solar power for the rest.  It might be the kick we need to get to that star trek utopia.

In just the last couple years there have been some pretty amazing inventions that scrub CO2 from the atmosphere, and I'm sure there are more to come, not to mention the physics that hasn't even been discovered yet.  I was just doing research last year on new insanely efficient organic perovskite solar materials that weren't even remotely feasible 2 years before that, and that's small fry low budget University stuff.  Imagine what can happen with a Manhattan project or a space race only orders of magnitude larger.

I think it will create a new generation of heros, and I'll be in the middle of it helping if possible.

So no, I, for one, don't believe "we're all fucked", I have more faith in the collective cooperation of humanity than that.

I do, however, believe that something needs to change, and I'm optimistic that it will.



The first order of business is actually getting everybody to feel like there is, in fact, a threat.




-----background, guess I'll find out if anyone I know is on here, lol------
Bachelors of Engineering (electrical)
Halfway through masters of materials science
Was a system level expert and engineer helping build the radiation budget instrument, before it was cancelled.  I knew the system photons to bits.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-cancels-earth-science-sensor-set-for-2021-launch

A lot of my coworkers just completed the GOSAT-2/TANSO-FTS-2 that launched into orbit yesterday
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/10/japanese-h-iia-gosat-2-earth-observation-satellite/

What your scenario says to me is: we are going to fuck up the planet so badly that we destroy the climate that we know, that significant parts of the natural environment, including many species and habitats, are entirely lost, and that many billions of people in the poorer parts of the world without access to advanced technology will live lives of desperation and die early, but that it will be all right because there are a few humans living in rich part of the world behind a strong military will be able to survive better than all the others.

Gee, thanks for giving me that hope.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 05:48:44 AM


What your scenario says to me is: we are going to fuck up the planet so badly that we destroy the climate that we know, that significant parts of the natural environment, including many species and habitats, are entirely lost, and that many billions of people in the poorer parts of the world without access to advanced technology will live lives of desperation and die early, but that it will be all right because there are a few humans living in rich part of the world behind a strong military will be able to survive better than all the others.

Gee, thanks for giving me that hope.

No, i said that once the pressure is felt the hardworking from all walks of life in all areas of the globe will work together to alter course with minimal loss

I wasn't talking about just america being ok, i was talking about rhe planet

I used american history projects because that's what I'm familiar with
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 30, 2018, 06:09:08 AM
@magnet18, your background uses the word "system" a lot, so I take it you understand systems perspective. Have you read anything like Limits to Growth? If not, I recommend it, the 30 year update in particular. You don't have to agree with it to learn a lot from it.

Here's a post that a friend of mine who is both one of the most knowledgeable people I know regarding environmental issues and is a climate change skeptic that touches on the complexity in responding to the environment: https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ugo-bardi/peak-civilization [edit, that link is giving an error, here's another: https://cucugliato.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/ugo-bardi_peak-civilization_the-fall-of-roman-empire.pdf]. It's long, but light. If you choose to read it, I'm curious your thoughts.

Your examples of human achievement didn't mention any of the great civilizations that collapsed. That article treats the Roman empire, but there are hundreds of others.

Your examples of possible solutions fit the pattern of past technologies that increased efficiency. They lowered consumption per use but increased the number of uses, increasing total energy consumption and therefore pollution in the long term. I wrote about it in Inc When Innovation and Technology Fail Us (https://www.inc.com/joshua-spodek/when-innovation-technology-fail-us.html) and spoke about it on my podcast (http://joshuaspodek.com/technology-wont-solve-environmental).

If you make a polluting system more efficient, it pollutes more efficiently.

To reduce pollution, we have to change the system, not just make it more efficient. You've seen the problems. Have they motivated you to change? My read is that you haven't. If you don't mind my being blunt, I read what you wrote not as optimism but justifying not doing anything, hoping someone else will fix your problem. I would be glad to learn I misread you. Are you doing anything more than waiting and hoping others fix the problem?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 30, 2018, 06:42:40 AM
Your examples of possible solutions fit the pattern of past technologies that increased efficiency. They lowered consumption per use but increased the number of uses, increasing total energy consumption and therefore pollution in the long term. I wrote about it in Inc When Innovation and Technology Fail Us (https://www.inc.com/joshua-spodek/when-innovation-technology-fail-us.html) and spoke about it on my podcast (http://joshuaspodek.com/technology-wont-solve-environmental).

If you make a polluting system more efficient, it pollutes more efficiently.

Joshua, you continue to repeat this statement as if it was a universal law that increases in efficiency result in increases in resource consumption. There are certainly some situations where that is that case. However, as we discussed only two weeks ago on this same forum, there are also cases where increased efficiency decreases resource consumption. Specifically, we discussed how increases in fuel efficiency in the USA lead to decreased total national gasoline consumption, even when facing the headwinds of a growing population and gasoline prices which declined 31% in real terms, both of which would normally result in significant increases in total national gasoline consumption (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/article-if-the-point-of-capitalism-is-to-escape-capitalism/msg2172326/#msg2172326).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 07:10:44 AM
@magnet18, your background uses the word "system" a lot, so I take it you understand systems perspective. Have you read anything like Limits to Growth? If not, I recommend it, the 30 year update in particular. You don't have to agree with it to learn a lot from it.

Here's a post that a friend of mine who is both one of the most knowledgeable people I know regarding environmental issues and is a climate change skeptic that touches on the complexity in responding to the environment: https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ugo-bardi/peak-civilization. It's long, but light. If you choose to read it, I'm curious your thoughts.

Your examples of human achievement didn't mention any of the great civilizations that collapsed. That article treats the Roman empire, but there are hundreds of others.

Your examples of possible solutions fit the pattern of past technologies that increased efficiency. They lowered consumption per use but increased the number of uses, increasing total energy consumption and therefore pollution in the long term. I wrote about it in Inc When Innovation and Technology Fail Us (https://www.inc.com/joshua-spodek/when-innovation-technology-fail-us.html) and spoke about it on my podcast (http://joshuaspodek.com/technology-wont-solve-environmental).

If you make a polluting system more efficient, it pollutes more efficiently.

To reduce pollution, we have to change the system, not just make it more efficient. You've seen the problems. Have they motivated you to change? My read is that you haven't. If you don't mind my being blunt, I read what you wrote not as optimism but justifying not doing anything, hoping someone else will fix your problem. I would be glad to learn I misread you. Are you doing anything more than waiting and hoping others fix the problem?

Thanks for your reply

That peak civilization article is unfortunately giving me an error, not found, maybe the site is down?  I'll reply again once I can read it.

Regarding the fall of civilization, sure, one could easily say that the American empire will fall.  It's entirely probable that we live in a golden age, and that we'll never again see a civilization where the average middle class populus has a 2,000 square foot house and drives 2 SUVs. 

I don't want our polluting systems to be more efficient, I want to replace them with completely non-polluting systems

Far from thinking nothing will happen, I hope there are lots of changes.  A complete restructuring of our cities to support increased population density and 100% renewable energy used at much lower rates would be awesome.  Let's switch the planet over to a vegan diet.  Speaking of, is there anything I'm doing, that's something I've already done.

Since you think I'm not doing anything, I do ask, what do you propose I do? 

Last point for this post, the examples I chose were examples of acting on a large scale to invent new technology to respond to a threat, because when writing it my mind was places like this
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/new-devices-could-help-turn-atmospheric-co2-useful-supplies
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Prairie Stash on October 30, 2018, 08:52:08 AM
@magnet18
My personal anaolgies are the Acid rain Crisis of the 80's, solved through a massive cap and trade program.

Or the Ozone crisis, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/WorldOfChange/Ozone
Sometime mid century we should see improvement in the ozone layer, pollutants are remarkably long lived.

We have had two doomsday scenarios to the atmosphere in the past century. Lets hope we can achieve success in this one too. I'm an optimist at heart, I get to work with projects that are currently reducing emissions by the millions of tonnes, its pretty inspiring.

Most people struggle to realize that there are several concurrent problems in our atmosphere, climate change is just one way humans have messed with it. We also have a mercury reduction target, remember the mercury in Tuna? The dioxin target, a terrible by product of incnieration that causes cancer at pg levels (look up what a picogram is). Localized heavy metals, people still get metal poisoning. Lastly, fine particulates, a class of particulate known to reduce respiratory function, it was all the rage at the Beijing summer olympics.

I can list examples of projects tackling every one of those issues.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on October 30, 2018, 09:29:36 AM
I find interesting is how the Republican party has positioned itself as being solidly anti-environment in everything it does.  This certainly wasn't the case in years past.  Richard Nixon (for his many faults) was a pretty pro-environment president, creating the NOAA, the EPA, passing the Marine Mammal Protection Act, Clean Water Act, Clean Air Act, etc.  Teddy Roosevelt, Bush Sr. . . .  environmental issues don't have to only be Democratic issues, and weren't in the past.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 09:54:19 AM

Generally preaching at people doesn't work, case and point telling everyone to be vegan. While it would be better for the environment the odds of getting everyone to do it in a lifetime time frame is nil and even over generational time frames the odds are also very low. Plus, at the end of the day humans are still omnivores so some animal products are still needed in our diet. This isn't even really considering the negative cultural impact that "complete vegan" would have. There are a lot of cultural practices around the world that are tied to the consumption of animal products and it takes a lot to get people to give those up. However, most people also eat a lot more meat than they really need to and it's a lot easier to nudge people to simply altering their diet to include less meat. Case and point, most people have a couple meals a week that are already ovo-lacto vegetarian so it's not that much of a stretch to get them to increase the count a bit more.

This is a topic for a different thread, but that statement is ridiculously false, two of the longest lived and healthiest populations in history (Okinawan and 7th day Adventist) were completely vegan

If anything, I've seen enough convincing evidence to be of the opinion that humans are biologically better suited to be herbivores, and only omnivores because of cultural norms (or necessity, if no other options are available)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on October 30, 2018, 10:02:27 AM

Generally preaching at people doesn't work, case and point telling everyone to be vegan. While it would be better for the environment the odds of getting everyone to do it in a lifetime time frame is nil and even over generational time frames the odds are also very low. Plus, at the end of the day humans are still omnivores so some animal products are still needed in our diet. This isn't even really considering the negative cultural impact that "complete vegan" would have. There are a lot of cultural practices around the world that are tied to the consumption of animal products and it takes a lot to get people to give those up. However, most people also eat a lot more meat than they really need to and it's a lot easier to nudge people to simply altering their diet to include less meat. Case and point, most people have a couple meals a week that are already ovo-lacto vegetarian so it's not that much of a stretch to get them to increase the count a bit more.

This is a topic for a different thread, but that statement is ridiculously false, two of the longest lived and healthiest populations in history (Okinawan and 7th day Adventist) were completely vegan

If anything, I've seen enough convincing evidence to be of the opinion that humans are biologically better suited to be herbivores, and only omnivores because of cultural norms (or necessity, if no other options are available)

I know we are getting OT here, but our dentition and digestive tracts are very similar to raccoons and pigs, which are both omnivores.  We can cope with a completely plant diet because we cook our food, which breaks down plant cell walls.  We don't have a rumen or a cecum (well, we do, it is our appendix) so we cannot digest cellulose. Of course an omnivorous diet doesn't have to include meat from large animals, but culturally we don't seem willing to eat the food best suited to our dentition (you know, worms, grubs, little easy to chew animals).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 30, 2018, 10:04:54 AM
Your examples of possible solutions fit the pattern of past technologies that increased efficiency. They lowered consumption per use but increased the number of uses, increasing total energy consumption and therefore pollution in the long term. I wrote about it in Inc When Innovation and Technology Fail Us (https://www.inc.com/joshua-spodek/when-innovation-technology-fail-us.html) and spoke about it on my podcast (http://joshuaspodek.com/technology-wont-solve-environmental).

If you make a polluting system more efficient, it pollutes more efficiently.

Joshua, you continue to repeat this statement as if it was a universal law that increases in efficiency result in increases in resource consumption. There are certainly some situations where that is that case. However, as we discussed only two weeks ago on this same forum, there are also cases where increased efficiency decreases resource consumption. Specifically, we discussed how increases in fuel efficiency in the USA lead to decreased total national gasoline consumption, even when facing the headwinds of a growing population and gasoline prices which declined 31% in real terms, both of which would normally result in significant increases in total national gasoline consumption (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/article-if-the-point-of-capitalism-is-to-escape-capitalism/msg2172326/#msg2172326).

I wrote above that it has different effects in the long term and in the links that it depends on the demand curve -- that is, how many other uses there are at lower prices. For 300+ million people, 10 years doesn't feel like long-term, especially with significant social change in the meantime. Also, I'm not sure how much the demand for gas increases at lower prices or if we've saturated it.

The post you linked to showed fewer gallons per person and implied the cause was higher efficiency. While I'm sure the efficiency played a role, even greater for the price drop, I doubt it was the only cause. 2007 was at the height of a bubble just before a recession, for example. I downloaded the pdf you linked to to see if any other causes seemed likely, but it was long and dense and would conflict with my other work today.

Maybe the drop in prices made flying more affordable and many people who would have driven flew places and total greenhouse emissions increased.

I'm not saying it's the case since I don't have the data and in any case we don't have a control group to measure against. I can say that the trend over centuries is clear: machines are more efficient than ever, we use them for more purposes as they become more efficient, and we pollute more than ever.

When people choose to pollute less, it's easy and often improves their lives. They're glad they did and wish they had earlier. I'm trying to promote that effect.

It's also possible lower use is resulting from social change. Increasing portions of drivers recognize that they will feel the effects of global warming in their lifetimes while people who won't are dying off. They're seeing the pollution in their lives, corals dying, extinctions, etc.

To @magnet18 The link was broken for me too. I found a new link: https://cucugliato.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/ugo-bardi_peak-civilization_the-fall-of-roman-empire.pdf
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on October 30, 2018, 10:25:08 AM

Since you think I'm not doing anything, I do ask, what do you propose I do? 


I wrote something different than "you think I'm not doing anything."

As for proposals, I see too many people blindly telling others what to do, which I consider counterproductive and I don't want to repeat what I consider their mistakes. I don't know your goals, interests, values, motivations, etc. I don't even know if you want a proposal or, if you do, what you want it for.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 10:34:28 AM

Generally preaching at people doesn't work, case and point telling everyone to be vegan. While it would be better for the environment the odds of getting everyone to do it in a lifetime time frame is nil and even over generational time frames the odds are also very low. Plus, at the end of the day humans are still omnivores so some animal products are still needed in our diet. This isn't even really considering the negative cultural impact that "complete vegan" would have. There are a lot of cultural practices around the world that are tied to the consumption of animal products and it takes a lot to get people to give those up. However, most people also eat a lot more meat than they really need to and it's a lot easier to nudge people to simply altering their diet to include less meat. Case and point, most people have a couple meals a week that are already ovo-lacto vegetarian so it's not that much of a stretch to get them to increase the count a bit more.

This is a topic for a different thread, but that statement is ridiculously false, two of the longest lived and healthiest populations in history (Okinawan and 7th day Adventist) were completely vegan

If anything, I've seen enough convincing evidence to be of the opinion that humans are biologically better suited to be herbivores, and only omnivores because of cultural norms (or necessity, if no other options are available)

I know we are getting OT here, but our dentition and digestive tracts are very similar to raccoons and pigs, which are both omnivores.  We can cope with a completely plant diet because we cook our food, which breaks down plant cell walls.  We don't have a rumen or a cecum (well, we do, it is our appendix) so we cannot digest cellulose. Of course an omnivorous diet doesn't have to include meat from large animals, but culturally we don't seem willing to eat the food best suited to our dentition (you know, worms, grubs, little easy to chew animals).

Humans have a digestive system more or less of their own, because we are insanely good at breaking down starch, which is something few other animals have the ability to do at all, let alone do well.  There are plenty of "raw" vegans who are perfectly healthy, though I find that a silly thing to be hung up on, given that the invention of cooking predates the development of homo-sapiens proper.

I'm not saying we're not also able to eat worms and bugs, I'm sure it's a good survival skill, but compared to tubers eating worms and bugs is a terribly inefficient way to get calories

There is also the cholesterol argument, which is one of the biggest for me.  Newborn babies have an ideal healthy cholesterol level.  Children raised vegan maintain that cholesterol level, while children raised omnivorous begin showing elevated cholesterol and arterial deposits as early as elementary school.  Adults that later go vegan will have their cholesterol levels slowly decrease back to the healthy baseline over a period of years.

Given that heart attack, stroke, dementia (not Alzheimer's), lower back failure, erectile dysfunction, and possibly osteoporosis, to name a few, are caused by clogged arteries, (sounds like your average American) this is exceedingly significant.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 10:41:49 AM

Since you think I'm not doing anything, I do ask, what do you propose I do? 


I wrote something different than "you think I'm not doing anything."

As for proposals, I see too many people blindly telling others what to do, which I consider counterproductive and I don't want to repeat what I consider their mistakes. I don't know your goals, interests, values, motivations, etc. I don't even know if you want a proposal or, if you do, what you want it for.

You've seen the problems. Have they motivated you to change? My read is that you haven't. If you don't mind my being blunt, I read what you wrote not as optimism but justifying not doing anything, hoping someone else will fix your problem. I would be glad to learn I misread you. Are you doing anything more than waiting and hoping others fix the problem?

You literally said, to rearrange your words, "My read is that you have not been motivated to change.  What you wrote is a justification of not doing anything."

I saw your link posted, will read
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 10:54:48 AM
7th day Adventists are encouraged to follow a vegan diet, but only about 35% of them are (https://web.archive.org/web/20081202185642/http://www.adventist.org/world_church/official_meetings/2002annualcouncil/strategic-issues-report.pdf). Likewise, the traditional Okinawan diet includes small amounts of fish and pork on a regular basis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okinawa_diet). To the best of my knowledge the scientific consensus is that humans are omnivores and may be vegan with careful monitoring of their diet. Most human populations are not equipped to have locally sourced vegan diet.

If I recall correctly, the 7th day Adventist longitudinal studies accounted for which were and were not vegan, and used them as an excellent comparison (literally neighbors) and found the vegans healthier

I'm not knowledgeable enough on the Okinawan study to have a good response, other than to say they got the vast majority of their calories from sweet potatoes


The point I really want to discuss, this is something that's caught my interest but I've never investigated it, what micronutrients would be absent from a locally sourced vegan diet, and how would consumption of animals (which are presumably eating a locally sourced vegan diet) alleviate the deficiency? 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 11:06:57 AM
I find interesting is how the Republican party has positioned itself as being solidly anti-environment in everything it does.  This certainly wasn't the case in years past.  Richard Nixon (for his many faults) was a pretty pro-environment president, creating the NOAA, the EPA, passing the Marine Mammal Protection Act, Clean Water Act, Clean Air Act, etc.  Teddy Roosevelt, Bush Sr. . . .  environmental issues don't have to only be Democratic issues, and weren't in the past.

+1

I like many of the commonly held republican points, but dislike the anti-environmental and pro-factory farming policies, among others

I like many of the commonly held democratic points, but dislike many policies, which I won't get into in this thread as they're not relevant


Infuriating how each side draws an arbitrary line in the sand and then defends it to the death
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on October 30, 2018, 11:10:20 AM
Your examples of possible solutions fit the pattern of past technologies that increased efficiency. They lowered consumption per use but increased the number of uses, increasing total energy consumption and therefore pollution in the long term. I wrote about it in Inc When Innovation and Technology Fail Us (https://www.inc.com/joshua-spodek/when-innovation-technology-fail-us.html) and spoke about it on my podcast (http://joshuaspodek.com/technology-wont-solve-environmental).

If you make a polluting system more efficient, it pollutes more efficiently.

Joshua, you continue to repeat this statement as if it was a universal law that increases in efficiency result in increases in resource consumption. There are certainly some situations where that is that case. However, as we discussed only two weeks ago on this same forum, there are also cases where increased efficiency decreases resource consumption. Specifically, we discussed how increases in fuel efficiency in the USA lead to decreased total national gasoline consumption, even when facing the headwinds of a growing population and gasoline prices which declined 31% in real terms, both of which would normally result in significant increases in total national gasoline consumption (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/article-if-the-point-of-capitalism-is-to-escape-capitalism/msg2172326/#msg2172326).

I wrote above that it has different effects in the long term and in the links that it depends on the demand curve -- that is, how many other uses there are at lower prices. For 300+ million people, 10 years doesn't feel like long-term, especially with significant social change in the meantime. Also, I'm not sure how much the demand for gas increases at lower prices or if we've saturated it.


How many years would you consider to be "long term"? While I'm not accusing you of this, the way you're now modifying your assertion could easily be used to make it completely non-falsifiable because any contradictory data which showed a case where an in resource use efficiency did not produce an increase in total consumption of that particular resource can be challenged as "well yes, but if we wait longer it might change."

Quote
It's also possible lower use is resulting from social change. Increasing portions of drivers recognize that they will feel the effects of global warming in their lifetimes while people who won't are dying off. They're seeing the pollution in their lives, corals dying, extinctions, etc.

Ah, but this doesn't get you off the hook. You are asserting that an increase in efficiency must cause an increase in consumption. So it's not enough to argue that the increase in efficiency isn't responsible for the decrease in consumption, you would need to argue that the decrease in consumption would have been even larger if we hadn't developed more fuel efficient cars.

That just doesn't pass the smell test to me. I'm happy to be convinced I'm wrong if you have convincing data to back it up, but at the moment it would certainly appear that there is at least once exception to your rule that increases in efficiency always produce increases in consumption, and where there is one exception, there are certainly likely to be other cases where increases in efficiency decrease demand (for example total demand for electricity).

Now to be clear, I'm not arguing that increases in efficiency cannot sometimes have unintended consequences. And if you wanted to argue that we should consider and model carefully the effects of specific advances in technology or efficiency with an awareness that the overall impacts can sometimes be counterintuitive, I'd be all for that.

But you are using your absolute rule to dismiss technological solutions generally as never effective as reducing resource use. And our history simply doesn't support that assertion.

Quote
I can say that the trend over centuries is clear: machines are more efficient than ever, we use them for more purposes as they become more efficient, and we pollute more than ever.

The problem with this argument is that is can work for anything that has been changing over time.

All I can say is that over centuries the trend is clear: the odds of dying in birth are down, fewer and fewer women are dying when delivering their first or second child, and we pollute more than ever.

All I can say is that over centuries the trend is clear: the number of distinct plant species the average person eats over the course of a year has decreased, today more than half of all our calories come, directly or indirectly from only three major grain crops, and we pollute more than ever.

All I can say is that over centuries the trend is clear: the total number of books written has continued to increase, today more people are literature than at any point in the past, and we pollute more than ever.

Quote
When people choose to pollute less, it's easy and often improves their lives. They're glad they did and wish they had earlier. I'm trying to promote that effect.

Having a laudable end goal does not make it acceptable to promote that end goal through the use of misleading or incomplete or incorrect assertions about the way the world works. Both on an ethical level and because it tends to backfire when you don't just damage your own credibility but that of all of us arguing on the same side.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: norabird on October 30, 2018, 01:04:51 PM
This obituary of a reef scientist had some nice optimism in it:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/10/optimist-who-believed-saving-corals/574240/

As far as meat goes, I'm going to keep trying, or at least intending, to reduce the meat and especially beef (but also soy, for rainforest deforestation reasons) in my diet.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: diapasoun on October 30, 2018, 01:25:49 PM
The point I really want to discuss, this is something that's caught my interest but I've never investigated it, what micronutrients would be absent from a locally sourced vegan diet, and how would consumption of animals (which are presumably eating a locally sourced vegan diet) alleviate the deficiency?
Off the top of my head there are some indigenous tribes that are reliant upon animal sources of some very basic vitamins (ex., C) as opposed to what are common plant sources elsewhere.

Generally, B12 deficiencies are a source of concern for vegans and even some vegetarians.

Otherwise, the possibility and types of micronutrient deficiencies are going to depend on what's actually available locally. In some areas of the US, there's selenium deficiencies in the soil that can lead to selenium deficiencies in you if you're truly relying on local vegetables for your diet; including animal protein can help you avoid the deficiency, since animal protein is generally a good source of selenium. In other areas of the US/Canada, getting local vegetables is actually just really hard, because the growing season is so short (see: Alaska, Yukon Territory, etc), so you might end up with a straight up caloric deficiency if you're trying to eat local and not eat meat.


Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 01:37:33 PM
Off the top of my head there are some indigenous tribes that are reliant upon animal sources of some very basic vitamins (ex., C) as opposed to what are common plant sources elsewhere.
Vitamin C is a good one to bring up, as we have a "broken" vitamin C gene and can't make it.  It's only a problem in certain remote areas though, where you have access to neither fruit nor green leafy plants.  Potatoes are an excellent source


Usually I hear "muh B12! muh Iron!" Which are both dumb,  B12 as it is in the water in the wild (and easy to supplement in civilization), and iron as plants are a better source than meat anyway.  DW recently had bloodwork done and after one year vegan is finally not iron deficient for the first time ever

As far as meat goes, I'm going to keep trying, or at least intending, to reduce the meat and especially beef (but also soy, for rainforest deforestation reasons) in my diet.

Good job!  I found it really easy once I realized i couldn't care less about the taste of the plain meat itself, it's just how it's seasoned.

Regarding the soy, quick search, only 6% or something is actually grown for human consumption, 70% to feed the aforementioned beef, the rest for soybean oil (which os a waste of soy IMO), so cutting out beef will have a much bigger impact than cutting out soy.  After that soy oil, and then I personally wouldn't see the point in cutting out tofu and tempeh, since they're so good for you, but if you do all you're missing out on is an easy protein source, other beans and lentils are great too
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 02:19:19 PM
The point I really want to discuss, this is something that's caught my interest but I've never investigated it, what micronutrients would be absent from a locally sourced vegan diet, and how would consumption of animals (which are presumably eating a locally sourced vegan diet) alleviate the deficiency?
Off the top of my head there are some indigenous tribes that are reliant upon animal sources of some very basic vitamins (ex., C) as opposed to what are common plant sources elsewhere.

Generally, B12 deficiencies are a source of concern for vegans and even some vegetarians.

Otherwise, the possibility and types of micronutrient deficiencies are going to depend on what's actually available locally. In some areas of the US, there's selenium deficiencies in the soil that can lead to selenium deficiencies in you if you're truly relying on local vegetables for your diet; including animal protein can help you avoid the deficiency, since animal protein is generally a good source of selenium. In other areas of the US/Canada, getting local vegetables is actually just really hard, because the growing season is so short (see: Alaska, Yukon Territory, etc), so you might end up with a straight up caloric deficiency if you're trying to eat local and not eat meat.

See my previous post on the B12 thing, there are plenty of natural sources, and supplementing is ridiculously cheap.  It wouldn't be hard to add it to the water like flouride

In really remote northern areas, you'll have a hard time getting locally sourced calories of any sort, even meat.  The populations that have grown there can't be supported, that's why groceries in Alaska can be insanely expensive.  Yes, you can't be vegan in the artic circle


Localized selenium deficiency in the soil isn't something I was aware of, and it's interesting. If you're eating local meat, I'd think the animals you're eating will also be selenium deficient, as they have to get it from somewhere as well.  They will, of course, concentrate it for you and make it easier, but they don't produce it. If you were trying to get it locally, cruciferae (cabbage and mustard) have shown to be very good at up taking selenium from the soil, along with fungi and other tubers.  Grains not so much. Good to know.


I'm pretty sure that anywhere plants grow well is somewhere it's easy to meet vegan requirements.  When people insist on living places where nothing grows, they have to ship in the nutrition one way or another.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 02:22:56 PM
Sorry, just realized I've derailed this thread into a vegan micronutrient discussion, we can get back to talking about climate change ending the world now
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on October 30, 2018, 02:53:04 PM
When people insist on living places where nothing grows, they have to ship in the nutrition one way or another.

With the risk to derail this even further: no we don't. Just stop polluting the oceans and ruining the climate, and the Arctic people will do just fine on a traditional diet of marine mammals, fish, reindeer, sheep, rhubarb, and root vegetables. Sure, it is nice to trade fish and seal skins for grain and fruits to get a more varied diet, but the basis of the dietwill be just fine with local ingredients. You can't support as many people per sqare mile, as with vegetables, but there are not a lot of people who want to live in the cold north anyway. :)

I am fully in favor of a more plant based diet globally, and actively support vegan friends in their choices. But vegan is not the only way to reduce climate emissions from our food. In the areas where we can't grow grains or vegetables, grazing animals and wild game is a good way to grow food. With the right agronomical methods, it is possible to reduce climate emissions per animal substantially. And if you take it a bit further, the carbon footprint of whale meat has been calculated to ~2.9 kg CO2/kg meat, about the same as potatoes (not 100 % sure I trust that number, the source might be a bit biased).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 03:29:04 PM
I was referring more to Las Vegas than Alaska with the shipping it in comment, humans have set up shop some places that just flat out aren't sustainable.  The area surrounding las Vegas could support like 2 people, not 2 million


I agree we'll never get 100% vegan, look at how many people still smoke even though it's such an illogical and known terrible thing to do to yourself, but I think in a few decades we will look at non-vegan diets the way we currently look at smoking


And yes, I've seen that optimum land usage involves some grazing livestock, I don't disagree with that.  Ever driven through west texas? It's not good for much else.  There a million better ways to utilize rainforest though. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sol on October 30, 2018, 03:47:08 PM
I think in a few decades we will look at non-vegan diets the way we currently look at smoking

I agree that future humans will look at today's American style diets and scratch their heads.  People voluntarily ate twinkies and french fries every single day?  Were they trying to kill themselves?

But I'm not so sure the future is vegan.  It's definitely a lot lower on the meat consumption scale than our current diets, but it's probably not strictly zero animal products either.

The problem with this is that animal husbandry is a huge and profitable industry.  We can't get rid of it for the same reason we can't get rid of the American health insurance industry, or oil companies.  Too many rich people will spend too much money to lobby politicians to protect their interests.  It doesn't matter if abolishing hamburgers is the right choice medically, environmentally, and economically.  Some rich dude in a big hat makes his millions on making you sick while destroying the earth, and he'll happily spend those millions today so that he can keep making more millions tomorrow.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on October 30, 2018, 04:40:15 PM
I'm pretty sure that anywhere plants grow well is somewhere it's easy to meet vegan requirements.  When people insist on living places where nothing grows, they have to ship in the nutrition one way or another.
There in lies the rub though, speaking in terms of planetary systems, people live in a lot more places than where diverse editable flora grow. Part of the reason why the humans have been successful as a species is due to being able to adapt our diet to what can be found locally. In fact one of the best species of evidence that humans aren't meant to be herbivores is successful populations in areas where they have a predominately animal based died.

I am fully in favor of a more plant based diet globally, and actively support vegan friends in their choices. But vegan is not the only way to reduce climate emissions from our food. In the areas where we can't grow grains or vegetables, grazing animals and wild game is a good way to grow food. With the right agronomical methods, it is possible to reduce climate emissions per animal substantially. And if you take it a bit further, the carbon footprint of whale meat has been calculated to ~2.9 kg CO2/kg meat, about the same as potatoes (not 100 % sure I trust that number, the source might be a bit biased).
So one of the big things in sustainability is life cycle assessment and life cycle thinking. In short, you don't just assess the environmental impact of something in terms of one part of a supply chain, but the entire life cycle of a product including the manufacturing (or growing) or sub-components. As a result you can encounter some very counter intuitive results based upon the local situation. I think this is the study you are talking about: "Eat whale and save the planet (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-whaling1/eat-whale-and-save-the-planet-norwegian-lobby-idUSEIC37493020080303?sp=true)" which noted the following:

Quote
The survey, focused on whale boats’ fuel use, showed that a kilo (2.2 lbs) of whale meat represented just 1.9 kilo (4.2 lbs) of greenhouse gases against 15.8 for beef, 6.4 for pork and 4.6 for chicken.

That figure actually makes sense since the only time you would really see green house gas (GHG) emissions introduced into the system would be harvest and transport to market. I suspect they aren't taking into account lifetime GHG emissions of the animals, but for free range catches it kind of makes sense not to. A lot of the studies of domesticated animals take into account lifetime GHG emissions since we assume that the herds would no longer be supported if we didn't consume them (side note, the US currently has 94.4 million cattle, feral cattle populations in the US are very low and generally considered nuisance animals since they aren't indigestion to North America).

However, to go back to an early point I made, if people simply reduced the amount of meat in their diets (again, most people in the US already eat a couple ovo-lacto vegetarian meals per week as it is) through intuitiveness such as Meatless Monday (https://www.meatlessmonday.com/) things would shift a lot more than people might think.

The likely largest issue with the carbon footprint calculations for whale meat, is that there are some quite good arguments made for living whales being net carbon negative: https://www.pacificwhale.org/2017/05/17/fact-of-the-week-whales-play-a-crucial-role-in-the-carbon-cycle/ But these are complex biological processes, and I wish we could get some good neutral studies on whether harvesting some of the marine mammal species that have viable populations would make a difference in the total marine carbon budget. For other game meat, the studies I have seen indicate that if you e.g. have a relatively large deer population, a number of animals will die of hunger or be eaten by other predators. Therefore, the relative carbon footprint of humans eating that deer meat can be calculated based on the emissions from hunting and processing, ignoring biological processes. But there are so many feelings regarding marine mammals, that it is difficult to figure out whether some of the populations are at a balancing point (where our harvesting would make little difference), or if there is a potential for further population growth and increased carbon capture. Nammco have some good arguments for harvesting, but they are also a biased source: https://nammco.no

These are not arguments for keeping up our current levels of meat eating. By turning to grazing animals and wild game, we cannot produce the same amount of prime beef. But for those of us living in inhospitable areas, it might be a better choice than importing soy beans, if we do it the right way.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 30, 2018, 05:06:49 PM
Sidestepping the conversation about vegan/not vegan (because, frankly, it's pointless--are you really going to argue about the finer points of less meat vs. no meat while the world burns? really? we need a complete overhaul of the entire system, not a few minor gestures).

Here's what I've been mulling over.

We on these boards have a collective insane amount of money. We also have amazing go-getters and people with incredible skills, talents, whathaveyou. So far we're funneling most of our money, time, resources, talents, into making a lot of money in a short amount of time to invest that in index funds and tax-free accounts. Why are we not utilizing even a tiny portion of the power we have toward environmental goals? Like, why have we not set up a private fund to take a bigger hand in what's actually happening? I'm thinking here of doing things like buying rundown rural properties and making them into nature preserves. Studies have shown how very important having even a few acres of untouched nature can be for species. Why are we not buying tracts of land and reforesting? We're very fond of charity here, to the point that we argue about whose charitable donations are "best" and most valuable. We're even more fond of investing. Why are we not investing in the future of our planet, and the species we share it with?

If you're so concerned about farming, why are we not working with groups to create better farming systems a la Geoff Lawton? Why are we not buying rundown properties to create urban gardens in poor neighborhoods, complete with classes (cooking, gardening) to help educate people? We could even do small scale animal husbandry (chickens) and beekeeping, depending on the city, to help people wean off CAFOs.

In other words, why are we not putting our money and our skills where our mouths are? I would work for this in a heartbeat.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: scottish on October 30, 2018, 05:17:38 PM
Inertia?    Movements need a leader!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: chaskavitch on October 30, 2018, 05:24:45 PM
Sidestepping the conversation about vegan/not vegan (because, frankly, it's pointless--are you really going to argue about the finer points of less meat vs. no meat while the world burns? really? we need a complete overhaul of the entire system, not a few minor gestures).

Here's what I've been mulling over.

We on these boards have a collective insane amount of money. We also have amazing go-getters and people with incredible skills, talents, whathaveyou. So far we're funneling most of our money, time, resources, talents, into making a lot of money in a short amount of time to invest that in index funds and tax-free accounts. Why are we not utilizing even a tiny portion of the power we have toward environmental goals? Like, why have we not set up a private fund to take a bigger hand in what's actually happening? I'm thinking here of doing things like buying rundown rural properties and making them into nature preserves. Studies have shown how very important having even a few acres of untouched nature can be for species. Why are we not buying tracts of land and reforesting? We're very fond of charity here, to the point that we argue about whose charitable donations are "best" and most valuable. We're even more fond of investing. Why are we not investing in the future of our planet, and the species we share it with?

If you're so concerned about farming, why are we not working with groups to create better farming systems a la Geoff Lawton? Why are we not buying rundown properties to create urban gardens in poor neighborhoods, complete with classes (cooking, gardening) to help educate people? We could even do small scale animal husbandry (chickens) and beekeeping, depending on the city, to help people wean off CAFOs.

In other words, why are we not putting our money and our skills where our mouths are? I would work for this in a heartbeat.

Because you're a genius and we're not?  Those are amazing ideas.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 30, 2018, 05:27:33 PM
Inertia?    Movements need a leader!

So what you're saying is that I should just start recruiting the top FIREd talent needed for something like this?

We'd need:

A lawyer, to discuss the legal and tax implications.
Someone versed in setting up businesses, I think?
People who know how to recruit, and others who know how to sell an idea. Go big or go home, right? Let's get everyone on board.
Sustainability managers, to ensure that our project actually help rather than hurting.
People well versed in real estate.
People to take care of the minutiae, and people to be actually doing the work on the ground. That is, if we set up urban gardens then we need someone to step up and find those who could teach classes, and do the hard work of actually setting up a garden.

What am I missing?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sol on October 30, 2018, 07:07:42 PM
why are we not putting our money and our skills where our mouths are? I would work for this in a heartbeat.

Probably for the same reason we never got a mustachian tradeline company going, despite lots of interested people with the right experience and a potential profit motive.  Some one individual has to stand up and say "I'm doing this" and lead the way, take the first steps, and then ask for support. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: magnet18 on October 30, 2018, 08:43:42 PM
I don't have the moneybags to buy them, but I can point you towards half a dozen run down rural properties around where I am

In Indiana, you can get paid to both reforest, and to leave a natural wetland alone, not a bad starting point.  I have co-workers that have done both, and can get info, but I'm sure it's readily available online


I don't know anything about urban gardens though.  I am not a city person, they make me uncomfortable, can't help you there
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 30, 2018, 09:31:58 PM
I don't have the moneybags to buy them, but I can point you towards half a dozen run down rural properties around where I am

In Indiana, you can get paid to both reforest, and to leave a natural wetland alone, not a bad starting point.  I have co-workers that have done both, and can get info, but I'm sure it's readily available online


I don't know anything about urban gardens though.  I am not a city person, they make me uncomfortable, can't help you there

Thanks for the tip! I'll look into that.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 31, 2018, 01:06:02 AM
I think in a few decades we will look at non-vegan diets the way we currently look at smoking

I agree that future humans will look at today's American style diets and scratch their heads.  People voluntarily ate twinkies and french fries every single day?  Were they trying to kill themselves?

But I'm not so sure the future is vegan.  It's definitely a lot lower on the meat consumption scale than our current diets, but it's probably not strictly zero animal products either.

The problem with this is that animal husbandry is a huge and profitable industry.  We can't get rid of it for the same reason we can't get rid of the American health insurance industry, or oil companies.  Too many rich people will spend too much money to lobby politicians to protect their interests.  It doesn't matter if abolishing hamburgers is the right choice medically, environmentally, and economically.  Some rich dude in a big hat makes his millions on making you sick while destroying the earth, and he'll happily spend those millions today so that he can keep making more millions tomorrow.

Recognizing these points Sol, is precisely why I did this: https://www.lobbyists4good.org/animal-ag-subsidies

Having raised $5k, this kid is going to DC to lobby congress on behalf of the future.

When I see the future, and think what I would like to see, my idealistic preference is a vegan world. It's not just an animal cruelty issue, it's an oppression issue. If there's no need to oppress non-human animals, I want us to just fucking stop already. Besides, when we end oppression to all animals, human and non-human alike, humanity itself will be better for it.

But practically speaking, if we moved to a mostly vegan world, where default options are always vegan foods*, and people have to request animal foods and products, I could get behind driving to that. I understand that people are very hung up on their cultural norms, habits, nutritional notions and moving such people to an absolutist future is likely impossible. One main goal (among many) environmentally speaking is to get the ruminant biomass down to about 5% of what it is today (more or less).

After reading through the nutritional side-discussion here, I don't want to derail further, but just quickly - for those who want to explore adopting more vegan meals into their daily routine, and do it safely, I highly recommend you do challenge22.com.
 
A person who eats the std western diet and simply cuts out meat, dairy and eggs will be nutrient deficient simply because the std western diet non-animal foods are usually highly processed and stripped of fiber and other phytonutrients.

Anyway, challenge22.com guides you through adopting a whole-food-plant-based challenge for a month. There are certified dietitians on staff who are there to answer all questions about micro and macro nutrients. You get this advice all while getting help from long time plant eaters to come up with ways of subbing out animal products for plant ingredients in baking and cooking and bbqing and  vegan hot-wing-making (https://www.hotforfoodblog.com/recipes/2014/2/11/cauliflower-buffalo-wings).

*and other vegan products (low C low polluting vegan clothes, cosmetics, etc)

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on October 31, 2018, 01:20:08 AM
Sidestepping the conversation about vegan/not vegan (because, frankly, it's pointless--are you really going to argue about the finer points of less meat vs. no meat while the world burns? really? we need a complete overhaul of the entire system, not a few minor gestures).

Here's what I've been mulling over.

We on these boards have a collective insane amount of money. We also have amazing go-getters and people with incredible skills, talents, whathaveyou. So far we're funneling most of our money, time, resources, talents, into making a lot of money in a short amount of time to invest that in index funds and tax-free accounts. Why are we not utilizing even a tiny portion of the power we have toward environmental goals? Like, why have we not set up a private fund to take a bigger hand in what's actually happening? I'm thinking here of doing things like buying rundown rural properties and making them into nature preserves. Studies have shown how very important having even a few acres of untouched nature can be for species. Why are we not buying tracts of land and reforesting? We're very fond of charity here, to the point that we argue about whose charitable donations are "best" and most valuable. We're even more fond of investing. Why are we not investing in the future of our planet, and the species we share it with?

If you're so concerned about farming, why are we not working with groups to create better farming systems a la Geoff Lawton? Why are we not buying rundown properties to create urban gardens in poor neighborhoods, complete with classes (cooking, gardening) to help educate people? We could even do small scale animal husbandry (chickens) and beekeeping, depending on the city, to help people wean off CAFOs.

In other words, why are we not putting our money and our skills where our mouths are? I would work for this in a heartbeat.

^^^ this is a key part of that L4G lobbying campaign. Rather than paying billions a year to farmers to produce environmentally damaging products that consumers are not buying anymore, pay farmers to transition to low-C / low-polluting businesses (farm related or no), to environmentally beneficial farming practices growing food for human consumption, or just frickin' retiring already.  There's no reason this couldn't include some funding for buying properties and rehabbing into their natural original states.

The crowdfund is at $5k for a month of lobbying, but there's nothing stopping us going further.

Seriously SisX, THIS is what my FIRE is dedicated to. I'm leading about 60 local vegan activists in the town I live in, moving them away from fucking shouting at people through megaphones (eye-roll), and toward having heartfelt non-judgey conversations with people. I'm bringing an ad campaign here to plant seeds in the minds of the wider population. We're doing a book talk at the library. Taking Italian menu transition guidelines to local restaurants so they can augment their menus with delicious vegan meals that even a red-blooded carnist can enjoy on occasion.

Yes I'm vegan for all animals, human and non-human alike, but my activism is 100% for the environment and humanity's future. Please - join me. Maybe I'll start a thread on MMM. I'm just now figuring out my media strategy for communicating with supporters. And if I start a thread just for lobbying, I can do less derailing here.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: norabird on October 31, 2018, 07:22:29 AM
@SisterX, I would pay into that sort of thing! But I'm not exactly the usual laser-focused FIRE type either.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 31, 2018, 09:29:13 AM
@SisterX, I would pay into that sort of thing! But I'm not exactly the usual laser-focused FIRE type either.

Start tagging people! Who would be good at organizing this kind of thing? Who would have necessary skills? Even if all you do is bring other people to the table with the necessary skills to get something like this off the ground, that's incredibly helpful!

I have no idea how to start looking into this, so having more experienced people on board is necessary. I can totally organize the people end of things, but I need people with more diverse skills than I have.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: PoutineLover on October 31, 2018, 09:31:47 AM
I like this idea! I've thought of similar things, but never to the point of actually starting to do something. If we had a dedicated thread to brainstorm and organize and put together a team, I'd for sure be interested in getting involved in some capacity.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on October 31, 2018, 10:02:24 AM
This is realistically years away from being anything big, but is a step in the right direction.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/413904-airline-vows-to-switch-to-electric-planes-on-short-haul-routes-by?fbclid=IwAR2drY-nqHvlkvYjgD2Ftax-JwurE42gs5xpPpnfcDe_oY19VcnpmgQ0AZI

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: diapasoun on October 31, 2018, 12:16:04 PM
I like this idea! I've thought of similar things, but never to the point of actually starting to do something. If we had a dedicated thread to brainstorm and organize and put together a team, I'd for sure be interested in getting involved in some capacity.

I think there's a fair few of us who could get involved -- I know there are some of us who do or want to do carbon offsets (a re-wilding project could work great for that), or there's those of us involved in community gardens already. They might have great advice, and I think a dedicated thread could be a great idea. Talk about a good Throw Down The Gauntlet. ;)

I don't have a ton of $$, but I have fantastic research skills and a decent amount of drive. I can definitely help with looking up and researching options.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: chaskavitch on October 31, 2018, 12:39:35 PM
Slightly different topic, but I just received a survey from my city about how we should plan our future growth.  There were a LOT of questions about how much more public transport and bike/walking routes we should add and how they should be improved, should we increase our mixed-use urban and suburban areas for increased apartment/small townhome availability, can we re-zone our neighborhoods to add additional small houses (tiny houses and MIL apartments) to existing lots, etc.  They also had a number of infographics with estimates of how each option they were considering (and will likely mix) will contribute to a reduction in water use, decrease CO2 production, increase access to green spaces, and increase access to well marked bike paths. 

I'm pleasantly surprised with the questions and the direction the planning discussion is going, even if the end result isn't exactly what they've laid out. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: scottish on October 31, 2018, 03:32:35 PM
I like this idea! I've thought of similar things, but never to the point of actually starting to do something. If we had a dedicated thread to brainstorm and organize and put together a team, I'd for sure be interested in getting involved in some capacity.

I think there's a fair few of us who could get involved -- I know there are some of us who do or want to do carbon offsets (a re-wilding project could work great for that), or there's those of us involved in community gardens already. They might have great advice, and I think a dedicated thread could be a great idea. Talk about a good Throw Down The Gauntlet. ;)

I don't have a ton of $$, but I have fantastic research skills and a decent amount of drive. I can definitely help with looking up and researching options.

I'm in.  I'm not an extroverted sales guy though, so I won't be pitching anyone.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on October 31, 2018, 05:47:12 PM
I did it, you guys. I started a Throw Down the Gauntlet.

FWIW, I'm planning to quit my job at the end of the year. I will have much more "free time" (ha!) then to organize stuff. For now, I'd like to hear ideas and see what people come up with, how we would even move forward with such projects.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: YYK on November 07, 2018, 09:12:26 PM
Now just find a green way to cross the atlantic..

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f6/Container_Ship.jpg)

Several container ship lines set aside cabins for passengers. You can get just about anywhere in the world on a ship, though not always directly to your desired destination. It's not cheap, around 100-150 USD per day, but you get a spacious cabin, a private head, a cabin steward, and three meals a day in the officers' wardroom. Personally, I'd rather pay less and bunk and mess with the crew but I guess that's not an option. Plus, you get to cross oceans on a ship like it's the 1890s. Pretty awesome in my opinion.

Obviously the ship burns fuel, but unlike airlines or cruise ships they steam with or without passengers, so I think it's fair to say that the effective carbon cost of your voyage is zero. Your ~250lbs of person and luggage is a speck of dust on these behemoths that can weigh 40,000 tons or more fully loaded.

I haven't done this myself, but I'm determined to see the world without getting on a plane, so it's something I will be doing in the future.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sixwings on November 07, 2018, 10:54:57 PM
I think in a few decades we will look at non-vegan diets the way we currently look at smoking

I agree that future humans will look at today's American style diets and scratch their heads.  People voluntarily ate twinkies and french fries every single day?  Were they trying to kill themselves?

But I'm not so sure the future is vegan.  It's definitely a lot lower on the meat consumption scale than our current diets, but it's probably not strictly zero animal products either.

The problem with this is that animal husbandry is a huge and profitable industry.  We can't get rid of it for the same reason we can't get rid of the American health insurance industry, or oil companies.  Too many rich people will spend too much money to lobby politicians to protect their interests.  It doesn't matter if abolishing hamburgers is the right choice medically, environmentally, and economically.  Some rich dude in a big hat makes his millions on making you sick while destroying the earth, and he'll happily spend those millions today so that he can keep making more millions tomorrow.

The future of meat consumption is lab grown meat (cultured meat). Real meat will be a rare treat. We're not even that far off, a few years before it'll start being in grocery stores/competing with real meat for price, and like 10-15 before it replaces most meat products.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Ducknald Don on November 08, 2018, 02:25:07 AM

Obviously the ship burns fuel, but unlike airlines or cruise ships they steam with or without passengers, so I think it's fair to say that the effective carbon cost of your voyage is zero. Your ~250lbs of person and luggage is a speck of dust on these behemoths that can weigh 40,000 tons or more fully loaded.


I think you could make that argument about almost any form of emissions, ultimately though your $150 per day is helping make the enterprise viable.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on November 08, 2018, 04:40:11 AM
Now just find a green way to cross the atlantic..

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f6/Container_Ship.jpg)

Several container ship lines set aside cabins for passengers. You can get just about anywhere in the world on a ship, though not always directly to your desired destination. It's not cheap, around 100-150 USD per day, but you get a spacious cabin, a private head, a cabin steward, and three meals a day in the officers' wardroom. Personally, I'd rather pay less and bunk and mess with the crew but I guess that's not an option. Plus, you get to cross oceans on a ship like it's the 1890s. Pretty awesome in my opinion.

Obviously the ship burns fuel, but unlike airlines or cruise ships they steam with or without passengers, so I think it's fair to say that the effective carbon cost of your voyage is zero. Your ~250lbs of person and luggage is a speck of dust on these behemoths that can weigh 40,000 tons or more fully loaded.

I haven't done this myself, but I'm determined to see the world without getting on a plane, so it's something I will be doing in the future.

This guy is travelling the world without flying, and uses cargo ships regularly: http://www.onceuponasaga.dk/about
I would love to go on a cargo ship sometimes, but am not sure that I would like to travel as a single female.


Obviously the ship burns fuel, but unlike airlines or cruise ships they steam with or without passengers, so I think it's fair to say that the effective carbon cost of your voyage is zero. Your ~250lbs of person and luggage is a speck of dust on these behemoths that can weigh 40,000 tons or more fully loaded.

I think you could make that argument about almost any form of emissions, ultimately though your $150 per day is helping make the enterprise viable.
I would agree with you on most other transport modes, but not when it is on a cargo ship. A couple of passengers is like a mouse pissing in the ocean for them. There is a reason you don't see tourist ads for these types of journeys. Have you seen the carbon footprint calculations for goods transported by ship compared to other transport modes? The amount of stuff they have on those boats is mind blowing. And even if it turned out that the passengers made the trip profitable: great! The more goods we get from roads to sea transport, the better. We do need to adress the maritime CO2 emissions, force them to quite sailing on heavy oil, and get them to start using hybrid systems on batteries and/or fuel cells (biogas, ethanol, or hydrogen). But for transport of goods, there is no doubt that rail and keel are the best choices.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on November 08, 2018, 04:50:50 AM

Obviously the ship burns fuel, but unlike airlines or cruise ships they steam with or without passengers, so I think it's fair to say that the effective carbon cost of your voyage is zero. Your ~250lbs of person and luggage is a speck of dust on these behemoths that can weigh 40,000 tons or more fully loaded.


I think you could make that argument about almost any form of emissions, ultimately though your $150 per day is helping make the enterprise viable.

A big container ship easily costs up to $50k a day to run.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: cerat0n1a on November 08, 2018, 05:05:12 AM

Obviously the ship burns fuel, but unlike airlines or cruise ships they steam with or without passengers, so I think it's fair to say that the effective carbon cost of your voyage is zero. Your ~250lbs of person and luggage is a speck of dust on these behemoths that can weigh 40,000 tons or more fully loaded.


I think you could make that argument about almost any form of emissions, ultimately though your $150 per day is helping make the enterprise viable.

A big container ship easily costs up to $50k a day to run.

In general, a modern container ship is just about the most carbon-efficient way to travel long distances, even compared to walking or cycling. The record on oil leaks, plastic & solid waste pollution, NOX and sulphur emissions is not so great though.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on November 08, 2018, 10:39:46 AM
Initiative 1631 was on the ballot in Washington State this year, and it appears to be going down. This is the second time an initiative of this flavor has been tried in WA, and the second time it has been voted down.

https://crosscut.com/2018/11/washington-voters-reject-carbon-fees-second-time

There was a lot of disinformation out there about this, and I saw this as a bit of a referendum on how much individuals are willing to actually do to make a difference. The answer appears to be "not much." *sigh*
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on November 08, 2018, 11:09:43 AM
Initiative 1631 was on the ballot in Washington State this year, and it appears to be going down. This is the second time an initiative of this flavor has been tried in WA, and the second time it has been voted down.

https://crosscut.com/2018/11/washington-voters-reject-carbon-fees-second-time

There was a lot of disinformation out there about this, and I saw this as a bit of a referendum on how much individuals are willing to actually do to make a difference. The answer appears to be "not much." *sigh*

My hope is that we'd see more public support the larger the unit of organization that was trying to put through the tax. If I was a voter in Washington, whether the carbon tax is imposed at the city, county, state, nation, or global level, my own sacrifice is the same, but the benefit I receive in terms of reduction in the level of climate change I'll experience over my lifetime gets much bigger with each increase in scale.

And after all, look at Canada for an example of a bunch of individuals who are willing to make the same sacrifice.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sol on November 08, 2018, 11:10:38 AM
Initiative 1631 was on the ballot in Washington State this year, and it appears to be going down. This is the second time an initiative of this flavor has been tried in WA, and the second time it has been voted down.

My entire city is just wallpapered in yard signs paid for by the oil industry that say "Vote No on the Unfair Energy Tax".  Like there are so many of them that they covered up other political campaign signs.  The carbon lobby poured some serious money into defeating that ballot initiative.

I tried to point out that it's not an energy tax, it's a pollution tax.  My roof makes energy, tax free because it is pollution free.  But like Trump's twitter habit, it's hard to insert facts into the discussion when the biggest megaphone is shouting the same simple lie a thousand times a day.  Even when the lie is obvious, some part of it takes hold in the public psyche.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on November 08, 2018, 11:51:05 AM
My entire city is just wallpapered in yard signs paid for by the oil industry that say "Vote No on the Unfair Energy Tax".  Like there are so many of them that they covered up other political campaign signs.  The carbon lobby poured some serious money into defeating that ballot initiative.

This is a really great example of how money is not speech, and allowing rich people/corporations to outspent others actually limits freedom of speech.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 08, 2018, 02:39:49 PM

And after all, look at Canada for an example of a bunch of individuals who are willing to make the same sacrifice.


We are a bunch of socialists who love our universal health care and hate guns*, are we a good example to hold up?
 
*Um, I am being sarcastic here, but I imagine this is how a lot of more right-wing Americans see us?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: KiwiSonya on November 08, 2018, 03:01:29 PM
Exactly. We need a carbon tax.
That's useful only if the revenue goes to alternatives and solutions. If I live 30km from work with no train to take, whether petrol is $1.50/lt or $10/lt makes little difference; I simply must get to work, and there is no other way. But if there's a train then I'll take it.

I certainly agree that subsidizing alternatives is a good thing. However, I disagree with you that a carbon tax would have no value in the absence of those subsidies. In your particular example, if gasoline gets expensive enough in the absence of a train I predict that you would A) begin carpooling B) move much closer to work C) find another job, even one that pays much less, closer to your residence D) your employer would be willing to negotiate to let you work from home most of the time to avoid outcome C.

Now depending on your specific circumstances, some of those coping mechanisms might not be available (for example if you work at a job that requires your physical presence and activity, D wouldn't be feasible and you'd be forced to adopt one of the other three coping strategies, and if your job was located in an extremely expensive location, B might be unfeasible).

But if we made gas expensive enough and keep the price high enough for long enough, sooner or later you'd adopt one of the the four, or something else that hasn't occurred to me, and your gasoline consumption would decline dramatically. The outcomes would be less "fair" than with subsidies in that the poor would have their lives much more disrupted than the rich, but the changes in carbon emissions and lifestyle would still happen.
Great thread. Here in New Zealand we have found that a recent big spike in fuel prices (caused by exchange rate and increased fuel taxes) is driving a surge in biking in our cities and increasing demand for electric cars and electric bikes.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on November 08, 2018, 03:05:26 PM

And after all, look at Canada for an example of a bunch of individuals who are willing to make the same sacrifice.


We are a bunch of socialists who love our universal health care and hate guns*, are we a good example to hold up?
 
*Um, I am being sarcastic here, but I imagine this is how a lot of more right-wing Americans see us?

Well I suppose it depends on whether it's a discussion about whether americans specifically are willing to sacrifice to reduce the effects of climate change or whether people generally are. Canada is clearly a useful datapoint for the second discussion.

It may or may not be for the first. Healthcare is a great example of a place where the USA and Canada went down really different paths. But if you compare random pairs of countries I'd still say Canadians is probably a better model for how how people will react in the USA, than, for example, trying to predict how the USA will react based on data from Koreans or the French.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 08, 2018, 04:41:41 PM

And after all, look at Canada for an example of a bunch of individuals who are willing to make the same sacrifice.


We are a bunch of socialists who love our universal health care and hate guns*, are we a good example to hold up?
 
*Um, I am being sarcastic here, but I imagine this is how a lot of more right-wing Americans see us?

Well I suppose it depends on whether it's a discussion about whether americans specifically are willing to sacrifice to reduce the effects of climate change or whether people generally are. Canada is clearly a useful datapoint for the second discussion.

It may or may not be for the first. Healthcare is a great example of a place where the USA and Canada went down really different paths. But if you compare random pairs of countries I'd still say Canadians is probably a better model for how how people will react in the USA, than, for example, trying to predict how the USA will react based on data from Koreans or the French.

True, we are  more like Americans than citizens of the countries you mentioned.  But there are times I think the similarities are superficial - more telling is "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" versus "peace, order and good government".

To stay on topic, this looks interesting . . .
https://newsroom.carleton.ca/story/carleton-launches-efficiency-canada/?utm_source=Carleton+Stories+%28Carleton+Now%2C+Today%40Carleton+and+Research+Works%29&utm_campaign=f2e72ec643-CARLETON_STORIES_MAILOUT_NOV_8_2018&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f06564222d-f2e72ec643-441459973 (https://newsroom.carleton.ca/story/carleton-launches-efficiency-canada/?utm_source=Carleton+Stories+%28Carleton+Now%2C+Today%40Carleton+and+Research+Works%29&utm_campaign=f2e72ec643-CARLETON_STORIES_MAILOUT_NOV_8_2018&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f06564222d-f2e72ec643-441459973)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on November 09, 2018, 01:48:11 AM

True, we are  more like Americans than citizens of the countries you mentioned.  But there are times I think the similarities are superficial - more telling is "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" versus "peace, order and good government".

What would the world look like if we all identified first and foremost, not by our nations, not by our religions, not by our sports teams, but simply as Earthlings?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on November 09, 2018, 07:22:30 AM

True, we are  more like Americans than citizens of the countries you mentioned.  But there are times I think the similarities are superficial - more telling is "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" versus "peace, order and good government".

What would the world look like if we all identified first and foremost, not by our nations, not by our religions, not by our sports teams, but simply as Earthlings?

We need a greater common enemy for this to happen.  Alien invaders, off planet human colonies, it can be anything different . . . but without another group to hate it's really hard to pull together a large bunch of people.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on November 09, 2018, 07:33:06 AM

True, we are  more like Americans than citizens of the countries you mentioned.  But there are times I think the similarities are superficial - more telling is "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" versus "peace, order and good government".

What would the world look like if we all identified first and foremost, not by our nations, not by our religions, not by our sports teams, but simply as Earthlings?

We need a greater common enemy for this to happen.  Alien invaders, off planet human colonies, it can be anything different . . . but without another group to hate it's really hard to pull together a large bunch of people.

My friend's choir is singing 2 great songs, Oscar Peterson/Harriette Hamilton 's Hymn to Freedom, and Let there be peace on earth (lyrics Sy Miller/Jill Jackson, music Jay Althouse).  Unfortunately we seem to be built to need an in group (that we belong to) and an out group (the "other").  If it isn't skin colour it is language, or religion, or urban/rural, something, anything. Plus isn't there social research that show people do best socially in groups of about 150 or less?  Anything that gets us into bigger groups is already managing something unusual, the bigger the group the more it gets away from the 150 people.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on November 09, 2018, 08:15:07 AM
"Obviously the ship burns fuel, but unlike airlines or cruise ships they steam with or without passengers, so I think it's fair to say that the effective carbon cost of your voyage is zero. Your ~250lbs of person and luggage is a speck of dust on these behemoths that can weigh 40,000 tons or more fully loaded."

This is the "logic" that everyone everywhere uses that is pushing us above a few degrees Celsius warming and filling the oceans with plastic.

Most of the stuff the ships are carrying is unnecessary junk to be used once and thrown away, each consumer using the same "logic."

As @Ducknald Don wrote, you pay to ride, meaning you pay for your share of the fuel.

What's great about physics and math is that they can do what nature does. They can tell the difference between zero and non-zero, which is not a matter of opinion.

What's great about leadership is that it can make telling that difference and acting on it meaningful. Holding oneself accountable and acting by one's values instead of trying to sweep incidents of acting against one's values under the rug ultimately improves one's life. Integrity is hard, but worth it, at least in my experience.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on November 09, 2018, 08:42:30 AM
"Obviously the ship burns fuel, but unlike airlines or cruise ships they steam with or without passengers, so I think it's fair to say that the effective carbon cost of your voyage is zero. Your ~250lbs of person and luggage is a speck of dust on these behemoths that can weigh 40,000 tons or more fully loaded."

....

As @Ducknald Don wrote, you pay to ride, meaning you pay for your share of the fuel.

What's great about physics and math is that they can do what nature does. They can tell the difference between zero and non-zero, which is not a matter of opinion.

Okay, so let's calculate what your share of the emissions are.

A 747 plane emits ~500 grams of carbon dioxide per ton of cargo per kilometer. A cargo ship ~55 grams (source (https://timeforchange.org/co2-emissions-shipping-goods)).

So a person who weighs 250 lbs carrying all of their luggage who takes a cargo ship from San Francisco to Beijing will emit 55 * (250/2205 lbs/metric ton) * 9500 km = 59 kg of carbon dioxide. The same person, flying the same distance would result in carbon dioxide emissions of 538 kg so a total reduction in emissions from choosing the ship of 89%.

If I could get people to cut their carbon budgets by 89% I'd be pretty darn happy and don't consider it to conflict with my personal values. Obviously different people will have different values and ethics though.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sol on November 09, 2018, 08:57:01 AM
This is the "logic" that everyone everywhere uses that is pushing us above a few degrees Celsius warming and filling the oceans with plastic.

You have to draw a line somewhere.  By the act of being alive, your physical body pumps out CO2 all day every day with every breath you take (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMOGaugKpzs).  You are a non-zero carbon source, but you probably haven't decided to use "physics and math" to decide to stop breathing.  There is some non-zero amount of emissions that you have decided is a worthwhile cost of being alive, and you voluntarily choose to emit at least that much.  Where you draw that line is kind of up to you.

If one of your reasons for being alive is to see and experience the world we live in, and you've decided that travelling there is the way to do that, then I absolutely support the idea of doing it by ship rather than by plane.  Your total emissions, though still positive, will still be lower than if you had flown.  That's not a tragedy of the commons argument where you say "my contribution is too small to matter" it is a volumetric argument where you say "I am minimizing my contribution as much as I can while still living my life."

Different people just draw different lines for where "living my life" stops and wastefulness begins.  Are you still breathing?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on November 09, 2018, 09:25:57 AM
Different people just draw different lines for where "living my life" stops and wastefulness begins.  Are you still breathing?

But the carbon footprint of your breathing is based on your diet. Over an annual basis it is theoretically possible to have that end up at neutral (even if not practical in modern society). Where to draw the line indeed.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: norabird on November 09, 2018, 09:30:54 AM
Interesting that travel by cargo ship is so much better emissions wise! The time and higher cost make it pretty prohibitive for regular use, unfortunately (I would love to do it sometime).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on November 09, 2018, 10:10:25 AM
"Obviously the ship burns fuel, but unlike airlines or cruise ships they steam with or without passengers, so I think it's fair to say that the effective carbon cost of your voyage is zero. Your ~250lbs of person and luggage is a speck of dust on these behemoths that can weigh 40,000 tons or more fully loaded."

....

As @Ducknald Don wrote, you pay to ride, meaning you pay for your share of the fuel.

What's great about physics and math is that they can do what nature does. They can tell the difference between zero and non-zero, which is not a matter of opinion.

Okay, so let's calculate what your share of the emissions are.

A 747 plane emits ~500 grams of carbon dioxide per ton of cargo per kilometer. A cargo ship ~55 grams (source (https://timeforchange.org/co2-emissions-shipping-goods)).

So a person who weighs 250 lbs carrying all of their luggage who takes a cargo ship from San Francisco to Beijing will emit 55 * (250/2205 lbs/metric ton) * 9500 km = 59 kg of carbon dioxide. The same person, flying the same distance would result in carbon dioxide emissions of 538 kg so a total reduction in emissions from choosing the ship of 89%.

If I could get people to cut their carbon budgets by 89% I'd be pretty darn happy and don't consider it to conflict with my personal values. Obviously different people will have different values and ethics though.

In addition: electric planes are at a test stage yet, and although it might soon be possible to replace 7-seat planes that go up tp 60 minutes, long distance planes will take a longer time. Ships, on the other hand, can become carbon neutral tomorrow, by replacing* the engines with LNG/battery hybrid engines, running them on electricity close to shore, and biomethane on longer distances. Even if you choose the economic viable solution and use fossil methane, we are talking about a 25 % reduction in CO2-e, and near elimination of other types of pollution (sulphur, NOx, etc). We are trying to get a paradigm shift here, not only small changes. And to move things in the right direction, we have to not only divest from the wrong solutions, but support the right ones. Electric cars have a substantial carbon footprint from the production of batteries and electricity. But by moving the emission source from thousands of cars, to a few power plants, mines and factories, we make it much more likely that we will be able to solve the problem. Even if the solutions ends up being CCS.

About LNG in shipping: https://www.dnvgl.com/article/uptake-of-lng-as-a-fuel-for-shipping-104195


*Experiments have shown that you can replace engines on existing ships, rather than building brand new ones. This also has a carbon benefit.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on December 03, 2018, 05:49:55 PM
I spoke before of how ideally any carbon tax would increment each year to keep encouraging changes, and that any revenue must go into alternatives, or people get pissed off. What's happening now in France is a good example of this.

They have fuel taxes which go up each year, but the middle class feels they're not getting anything for them, and are rioting. The middle class are historically the class which complains the most no matter what, and they're the swinging voters in most democracies. So their response here helps explain why we're not seeing more effective action on climate change.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-03/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-protests-in-france/10576834 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-03/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-protests-in-france/10576834)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: JoshuaSpodek on December 04, 2018, 07:13:25 AM
Ships, on the other hand, can become carbon neutral tomorrow, by replacing* the engines with LNG/battery hybrid engines, running them on electricity close to shore, and biomethane on longer distances. Even if you choose the economic viable solution and use fossil methane, we are talking about a 25 % reduction in CO2-e, and near elimination of other types of pollution (sulphur, NOx, etc). We are trying to get a paradigm shift here, not only small changes. And to move things in the right direction, we have to not only divest from the wrong solutions, but support the right ones. Electric cars have a substantial carbon footprint from the production of batteries and electricity. But by moving the emission source from thousands of cars, to a few power plants, mines and factories, we make it much more likely that we will be able to solve the problem. Even if the solutions ends up being CCS.

We can also buy less stuff, reducing the number of ships. I have a feeling most of their cargo ends up in landfills after barely being used. I think the Story of Stuff video gives some statistics on it: https://youtu.be/9GorqroigqM
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on December 12, 2018, 09:12:21 AM
Just saw this article:
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-best-technology-for-fighting-climate-change-isnt-a-technology/

It was particularly interesting given that I live in an agricultural area where woodlots are being cut down to provide more fields for corn and soy.  We are also having more permanent pastures (also carbon sequesters) plowed for crops.

This past year I planted 2 catalpa trees, 1 pear tree, 3 hazelnut bushes and a black currant bush.  I have more baby trees and bushes in pots ready for next spring.    In previous years I have planted 7 evergreens (pine and spruce trees), 6 maples, 2 cherries, and about 80 cedars (hedge).   I can really see the difference these plantings have made, my microclimate is more temperate, the birds are more numerous and in greater diversity, the fireflies are back.

For those of us with yards, planting trees is something we can do.  For those of us who can't do our own planting, we can encourage our municipalities and higher level governments  to do more planting and to protect existing trees, whether they be urban trees, local woodlands or large forests.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on December 22, 2018, 02:24:56 AM
Just saw this article:
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-best-technology-for-fighting-climate-change-isnt-a-technology/

It was particularly interesting given that I live in an agricultural area where woodlots are being cut down to provide more fields for corn and soy.  We are also having more permanent pastures (also carbon sequesters) plowed for crops.

This past year I planted 2 catalpa trees, 1 pear tree, 3 hazelnut bushes and a black currant bush.  I have more baby trees and bushes in pots ready for next spring.    In previous years I have planted 7 evergreens (pine and spruce trees), 6 maples, 2 cherries, and about 80 cedars (hedge).   I can really see the difference these plantings have made, my microclimate is more temperate, the birds are more numerous and in greater diversity, the fireflies are back.

For those of us with yards, planting trees is something we can do.  For those of us who can't do our own planting, we can encourage our municipalities and higher level governments  to do more planting and to protect existing trees, whether they be urban trees, local woodlands or large forests.

Thank you for planting trees @RetiredAt63 . More of this please!

From that article:

Quote
Yet the international focus on fossil fuels has overshadowed the most powerful and cost-efficient carbon-capture technology the world has yet seen: forests. Recent scientific research confirms that forests and other “natural climate solutions” are absolutely essential in mitigating climate change, thanks to their carbon sequestering and storage capabilities. In fact, natural climate solutions can help us achieve 37 percent of our climate target, even though they currently receive only 2.5 percent of public climate financing.

YES. It's a carbon Cycle. Yes we must cut emissions from fossil fuels and animal agriculture. But we also need to sink the carbon that's already been generated, and is still being emitted - even with reductions in emissions.

Reducing animal agriculture - especially of ruminants - is a solution that addresses the entire carbon cycle. If you don't need to cut down trees in order to grow soybean to feed to cattle to feed to humans, you get to keep the trees and sequester carbon. The following study says that by re-wilding / re-foresting 41% of the land currently being used for grass and pasturelands, we could create the carbon sink we need to save our collective ass. (we still need to severely reduce fossil fuel burning too of course)

from https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm15/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/67429 :

Quote
We calculate the carbon sequestration potential of grasslands and pasturelands that can be reverted to native forests as 265 GtC on 1.96E+7 km2 of land area, just 41% of the total area of such lands on Earth. The grasslands and pasturelands are assumed to revert back to native forests which existed prior to any human intervention and these include tropical, temperate and boreal forests. The results are validated with above ground regrowth measurements. Since this carbon sequestration potential is greater than the 240 GtC of that has been added to the atmosphere since the industrial era began, it shows that such global lifestyle transitions have tremendous potential to mitigate and even reverse climate change.

In other words, stop eating animals - esp cattle. In place of them, plant trees, and we good. The more I study the issue, the more I understand that animal agriculture is at least if not twice the perpetrator as fossil fuels.  Between failing to account for deforestation, and using a CH4:CO2 ratio that severely underestimates methane's warming potential, we are not taking seriously enough the impact of animal ag. Sure, everyone knows to eat less beef and dairy. But did you know in terms of emissions, 1 dairy cow = 1 automobile? (this is my own calculation by the way, I can post details if you like).  Take into account the corresponding deforestation to grow the feed for that dairy cow, and 1 dairy cow == 2 automobiles.

Anyway, this is the stuff I'm studying right now for my lobby campaign to end animal ag subsidies. Here's a recent article on my campaign if you are interested.

https://newsgrowl.com/laura-reese-lobbyists4good-interview/
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on December 22, 2018, 06:30:07 AM
Re livestock and methane, the issue is not the cattle as such, it is what they are being fed - rich diets that are not taking advantage of their rumens.  Instead they are being fed corn and soybeans that increase their methane production.   Grass-fed cattle produce much less methane, and high-density managed grazing means way more carbon sequestration in the soil.  There is a lot of research on this right now in both the US and Canada, and there are lots of academic web presentations.  Grasslands in cool climate s normally have anything from 2 to 5 times as much root as shoot biomass, the more extreme ratio is in harsher climates.  That is a lot of carbon.  It also means the soil is less vulnerable to erosion.  Every time a pasture or hayfield is plowed, all that carbon is exposed to the air and the rate of decomposition goes up - and of course that means soil carbon is now atmospheric carbon.

Of course the breeds of cattle that do well on an ecologically viable management program are not the same cattle that do well on CAFO, and management programs have to change drastically, so there is a lot of resistance to changing over.

I see it locally, our dairy cattle are grazing but not in an intensive management system, so the pasture is not improved as much as it could be.  Our picturesque scenes of some beef cattle and some horses in a great big field mean that the pasture is not being managed well.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sixwings on December 22, 2018, 10:19:38 AM
cultured meat solves almost all of these problems. The land that was used to raise cattle can then be returned to forests.

We're going to start seeing cultured meat on store shelves in a few years and I hope it's not too long before it is way cheaper than regular meat and the farmers and be put to work growing and maintaining healthy forests.

IMO cultured meat is the most important technology happening right now wrt climate change.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on December 22, 2018, 10:32:12 AM
cultured meat solves almost all of these problems. The land that was used to raise cattle can then be returned to forests.

Point of clarification: most of the land used for grazing cattle (at least in the USA) was never forests, but prairie grasslands that naturally produced forage anyway.

In a pre-human environment that forage was eaten by 20-30 million buffalo. Now it is eaten by some fraction of the 90 million cattle present in the USA today.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sixwings on December 22, 2018, 10:34:06 AM
cultured meat solves almost all of these problems. The land that was used to raise cattle can then be returned to forests.

Point of clarification: most of the land used for grazing cattle (at least in the USA) was never forests, but prairie grasslands that naturally produced forage anyway.

In a pre-human environment that forage was eaten by 20-30 million buffalo. Now it is eaten by some fraction of the 90 million cattle present in the USA today.

South america is ripping through the amazon to create grazing space. Also the grasslands could be made into forests, we need more forests.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on December 22, 2018, 12:49:08 PM
Re livestock and methane, the issue is not the cattle as such, it is what they are being fed - rich diets that are not taking advantage of their rumens.  Instead they are being fed corn and soybeans that increase their methane production.   Grass-fed cattle produce much less methane, and high-density managed grazing means way more carbon sequestration in the soil.  There is a lot of research on this right now in both the US and Canada, and there are lots of academic web presentations.  Grasslands in cool climate s normally have anything from 2 to 5 times as much root as shoot biomass, the more extreme ratio is in harsher climates.  That is a lot of carbon.  It also means the soil is less vulnerable to erosion.  Every time a pasture or hayfield is plowed, all that carbon is exposed to the air and the rate of decomposition goes up - and of course that means soil carbon is now atmospheric carbon.

Of course the breeds of cattle that do well on an ecologically viable management program are not the same cattle that do well on CAFO, and management programs have to change drastically, so there is a lot of resistance to changing over.

I see it locally, our dairy cattle are grazing but not in an intensive management system, so the pasture is not improved as much as it could be.  Our picturesque scenes of some beef cattle and some horses in a great big field mean that the pasture is not being managed well.

Would you mind pointing me to some of your favored presentations?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on December 22, 2018, 01:16:34 PM
Also the grasslands could be made into forests, we need more forests.

I happen to like prairies.

But putting that aside if you try to turn the American short grass prairie into forest you're going to lose an awful lot of topsoil, use up a lot of water in some of the parts of the country where there's a real shortage of that, and, best case scenario, produce some forests that will look dead a significant part of the year and experience much more frequent and larger forest fires than parts of the world where a forest would naturally grow.

Edit: but to be clear I'm talking specifically about north america. The situation in Brazil is quite different, and driven in part by Europe exporting a lot of the consequences of their ag policy.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on December 22, 2018, 01:41:53 PM
OK, basic ecology.  To have forests you need a certain amount of precipitation during the growing season, and you need a long enough growing season.  If you have a short growing season you have conifers and things like larch.  Warmer you get more deciduous trees.  Here it is complicated by glacial history, northern areas not only have harsher seasons, their topsoil has all had to be made since the glaciers melted. 

The most eastern tall-grass prairies were artificially maintained by fire by the prairie tribes.  We see this in Manitoba where fire suppression has allowed forests to move west.  Short-grass and medium-grass prairies will never be forests, they never get enough water except in river basins, where you do see trees.  In many places there was a cycle of roughly 7 years where species dominance alternated between short-grass and medium-grass, and short-grass almsot desert,  depending on rain-fall.  The bad-lands of Alberta are technically a desert or near-desert, in terms of precipitation.

For large grazing animals, the difference (based on the presentations I have been watching, I will dig them out for you M41) is that the bison had wolves traveling with them so the herds stayed bunched up and kept moving.  This is the grazing pattern that they are trying to replicate.  Modern grazing management does not do this, it lets the animals scatter, so preferential plants get over-grazed and unpalatable species (like creosote bush) get left behind and eventually take over.

What Maizeman said - Western European agricultural practices worked OK (not great, but OK) in Eastern North America, not well at all further west.  I found reading Little House on the Prairie very educational, there was such a push to plant wheat, and so many crop failures, because it wasn't the Ukraine (the bread basket of Europe).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on December 22, 2018, 01:49:36 PM
RetiredAt63, are you talking about things like mob grazing? I've been hearing about it off and on for about a decade. Haven't dug into the studies of effectiveness, but from a conceptual level it makes a lot of sense.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on December 22, 2018, 02:31:06 PM
Maizeman, M41, yes I am talking about things like mob grazing/high density grazing.  I am also talking about no-till agriculture (which uses roundup less and less, uses mowing and crushing more and more, i.e. mechanical.

I went back through my history, these are from August.  I am sure I missed some, little blips as I went by.  But once you get into them, they just keep leading you to new presentations, so a few are good enough to get people going.

http://greenpasturesfarm.net/blog.php?entryID=1227&cat=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuwwfL2o9d4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uMPuF5oCPA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6xDfl_G8js
http://fieldcropnews.com/2014/07/cover-crops-following-cereals-and-late-summer-harvested-crops/


Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on December 22, 2018, 04:26:43 PM
I’m sure we all agree that burning rain forests to produce soy feed or graze cattle is a bad idea. But going from that, to “all cattle and sheep are bad”, is a giant leap. And it is also where the math and science gets complex.

There are many areas in the world where you can’t grow vegetables, but you can graze animals. If we want to feed diverse cultures, we need to let people have animals. Monocultures and “the one correct solution” has not worked well earlier. Removing the reindeer in the arctic won’t bring in any forest (just ask the town of Vadsø, where they have an annual unwrapping ceremony for their single town tree). In coastal areas of the North Sea, we could grow forests on the islands. But that would destroy centuries (maybe millennia) old ecosystem with several endemic species, that all depend on grazing animals. After going to all that trouble protecting the “kystlynghei”, I think we should look at other places to grow forests first. And then there are the grazing animals that thrive in forest habitat, such as sheep, old types of cows, and deer.

If we leave the extreme point of “all cattle must die”, and look at how we can improve the emissions from cattle (and sheep), the main points are;
-keep the cows happy, and don’t push them to produce too much.
-choose the right breeds for your area, and breed them for less emissions rather than more production
-optimise the feed for low emissions. Grass fed has some good results, but I have also recently been told that increased fat content in the feed has shown to lower emissions, and interestingly, adding seaweed looks very promising.
-make more than one product from each animal. Milk cows that later get slaughtered for meat have less emissions per food unit than cattle that only produce meat.
-collect what methane you can (from manure/urine) and make biogas. Biogas can replace fossil fuels in vehicles, or you can make electricity, or burn it for heat. The more the cattle graze freely, the less biogas you can produce
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on December 22, 2018, 04:46:57 PM
If we leave the extreme point of “all cattle must die”, and look at how we can improve the emissions from cattle (and sheep), the main points are;
-keep the cows happy, and don’t push them to produce too much.
-choose the right breeds for your area, and breed them for less emissions rather than more production
-optimise the feed for low emissions. Grass fed has some good results, but I have also recently been told that increased fat content in the feed has shown to lower emissions, and interestingly, adding seaweed looks very promising.
-make more than one product from each animal. Milk cows that later get slaughtered for meat have less emissions per food unit than cattle that only produce meat.
-collect what methane you can (from manure/urine) and make biogas. Biogas can replace fossil fuels in vehicles, or you can make electricity, or burn it for heat. The more the cattle graze freely, the less biogas you can produce

I agree with these points. On the first one I would only add that while pushing cows to produce too much is indeed bad, we are getting better at producing more meat and more milk per cow, and that does seem to be a good thing from the perspective of reducing the environmental impact of animal agriculture.

We actually only produce about the same amount of beef today as we did in 1975, but the number of cattle in the country has declined from 130M then to about 90M today, and total CO2/methane emissions from the US cattle industry have declined about 20% in the same time frame (so each cow produces a bit more impact than in the past, but not enough to cancel out the decrease in the total cow population).
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on December 22, 2018, 05:51:42 PM
Gaja, yes.

Only about 6% of Quebec is agricultural land, and only 3-4% can grow crops.  The rest can grow hay and pasture, trees, and tundra.  Ontario is better because of the region from Toronto south-west to Niagara, but still most of it is not suitable for agriculture.

In my region bio-gas is as likely to be a product of swine production because of confinement housing (also capture from old landfills) and manure lagoons.  Pigs can live on pasture a good chunk of the year even here, but the breeds that do well on pasture do not do well in confinement, and the breeds that do well in confinement don't do well at all on pasture.  To get pigs on pasture will be a more radical shift than to get cattle on pasture/hay.  Someone in Vermont has totally pastured pigs, and Vermont has pretty tough winters.  But the breed is a heritage breed, the modern breeds just can't cope.  Again, our chickens won't go outside much in winter, but the layers don't have to be raised and housed in cages.  We have undergone such a radical shift in our meat production techniques, and most people have no idea.  Crops too.

Re cattle and fats, what people don't realize is that cows do not digest cellulose, although they eat a lot of it. The bacteria and protozoa in the rumen digest cellulose, and produce basically short-chain fatty acids.  What the cow's digestive stomach digests is dead bacteria and protozoa and the short-chain fatty acids.  So yes, they do digest some fats very nicely.  This requires an alkaline rumen.  When they are fed grains the rumen is not as active, the rumen shifts to being less alkaline, and not only do they produce more methane, but they also are more prone to have acid-resistant E. coli, which is where some of our E. coli outbreaks come from.   All ruminants do this magic of cellulose into meat, which is why they are such common domestic animals, in so many diverse climates.  They are much easier to feed than a horse.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on December 22, 2018, 06:24:22 PM
Interesting about the grain, thank you for explaining!

Here is an article on seaweed. Some species might reduce methane emissions from cows with over 50%, and increase milk production; https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-eating-seaweed-can-help-cows-to-belch-less-methane

Feeding cattle and sheep seaweed is old knowledge along the coast. Often, the animals would graze along the beach by their own choice, but it was also common to collect and dry seaweed for winter feed. It gives a very good flavor to mutton, if you get hold of Orkney sheep, they have kept some of it.

The best part of seaweed, is that growing it will reduce other types of pollution in the sea. I have seen suggestions to mandate growing seaweed around fish farms, to reduce the amount of nutrients they add to the water.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on December 22, 2018, 07:05:54 PM
Feeding cattle and sheep seaweed is old knowledge along the coast. Often, the animals would graze along the beach by their own choice, but it was also common to collect and dry seaweed for winter feed. It gives a very good flavor to mutton, if you get hold of Orkney sheep, they have kept some of it.

The best part of seaweed, is that growing it will reduce other types of pollution in the sea. I have seen suggestions to mandate growing seaweed around fish farms, to reduce the amount of nutrients they add to the water.

I think Canadian Maritime farmers used to do that - now all is intensive.   There is research on Atlantic Salmon Farming in the Bay of Fundy that has multiples layers of production - salmon, mussels, seaweed - so that the water coming out is chemically the same as the water going in, no added nutrients released from the fish being fed, all the waste nutrients are taken up by the mussels and then the seaweed.  And at this point all commercial Atlantic salmon from Atlantic Canada is farmed, there are so few salmon that the only wild-caught ones are from sport fishing which is strictly controlled.

That was interesting seaweed research - and partly Canadian too!  Wouldn't it be serendipitous if the Asparagopsis grew well as the final nutrient pickup species in Salmon farming - that would be  such a win-win situation.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Malaysia41 on December 28, 2018, 07:08:05 AM

A powerful talk ends in anemic clapping. 23 minutes long. Watch the whole thing. He touches on terrestrial biomass of livestock vs humans vs wild.

https://unfccc6.meta-fusion.com/cop21/events/2015-12-11-19-30-abibimman-foundation?fbclid=IwAR3MHTVwMfCGknme_yecIECiKA9Pdga3-5TtyBACKs_MEZuko4IDlHRsFCA

Take for a given what many of you have argued - that much prairie land cannot be made into forest. (Yes - I get it). Doesn't mean animal agriculture isn't an outsized problem and drastically reducing our consumption of animal products needs to be a top priority (along with with ending our dependence on fossil fuels for energy).

Even as I acknowledge some prairie can't be made into forest, also please acknowledge that much prairie land once was forest, and if we stop using that land for animal ag, and revert it back to forest, we will dramatically improve our predicament.

We're still totally fucked. I know that. But what am I gonna do instead of fight for change? Binge watch Bored To Death and down a bottle of Valpolicella Superiore? (Eh, maybe I'll do both).

So what do you think of that talk?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: maizefolk on December 28, 2018, 07:47:32 AM
Even as I acknowledge some prairie can't be made into forest, also please acknowledge that much prairie land once was forest, and if we stop using that land for animal ag, and revert it back to forest, we will dramatically improve our predicament.

I'm afraid I still disagree with this. At least in north america, most of the forest land which has been converted into supporting animal agriculture has never been turned into prairie, it is some of the eastern edge of the corn belt, where forests were cut down to make fields for corn and soybeans which are in turn fed to animals, either as a supplement to grazing on grasslands or a complete alternative in high density feed lots. In fact, bringing a lot of the tallgrass prairies into agricultural production has allowed a lot of the native forests of North America to regrow. If you travel through New England you've find lots of old farm houses and stone walls around old fields that are covered with new growth forests. Once agriculture became established in the great plains farming that thin and rocky soil was no longer viable and forests that were cleared in the 1600s and 1700s began to regrow in the 1800s and 1900s as new england farm families gave up the family farms and either moved west or moved to the cities.

Look, if your argument is that we're currently producing dramatically more animal protein than is possible only from sustainable grazing on grasslands, and as a result, excess demand for meat is creating a lot of damage to our planet, I certainly do agree with that.

But I don't understand the apparent argument that grasslands (prairies) are bad, while forests are good. Both are natural ecosystems, both sequester carbon, both support diverse groups of plants and animals. And in environments which might sustain either either a grassland or a forest ecosystem, prairies appear to be better and longer term sequesters of carbon than forests.*

*Here's a popular press article https://phys.org/news/2018-07-grasslands-reliable-carbon-trees.html and the original scientific paper behind the findings in that article http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacb39/meta
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on December 28, 2018, 08:33:45 AM
I live in an area that was forest (mostly) until Europeans came.  It is good soil for crops because it used to be the bottom of the Champlain Sea.  Areas like this are now mostly growing corn and soy, and the rest is pasture and hay-fields for dairy (and a bit of beef, and sheep, and alpacas).  This is the area that has land use issues.  The corn and soy are not needed for pastured meat, they are needed for CAFO.  Pasture and hay build soil and sequester carbon, crops don't.  There is a push for no tillage and green manures but it is not strong yet.  Plus this area is quite capable of growing its own wheat, it grew lots of it before wheat production moved west.  Red Fife was developed in Peterborough from an unknown seed source.

Grasses and to a lesser extent forbs have millenia of selection to growth with large grazers.  Cattle on prairie have replaced one large grazer (bison) with another closely related one (cattle).  The issues arising from the replacement are management (no concentrated grazing), but the actual grazing pattern of a steer or a bison are similar, they have the same mouth (teeth and tongue) interaction with the plant.  Their hooves will do the same job of trampling vegetation into soil where it can become humus. 

Seriously, if we dig deeper, the issue is that agriculture is treated as an industry, when it is not at all like manufacturing.  It is all based on soil and weather and organisms interacting, not on molding a piece of steel into a part.  So industry standards and requirements are imposed inappropriately.  The idea of efficiency rules - so we ends up with all sorts of inefficient and destructive processes because they are seen as "efficient".  CAFO is efficient.  It is also massively inhumane to the animals, it is massively destructive to the ecosystems producing the feed and the ecosystems having to deal with huge amounts of manure that they are not capable of absorbing.

This is why I can applaud M41's efforts but think that her energy would be put to much better use fighting big agriculture.  It is not just the CAFO, it is all the restrictions on small slaughterhouses so where can you get locally-raised and butchered meat?  It is the restrictions on direct farm sales.  It is the PVP and patented seeds, so farmers have great difficulty saving their own seeds - and that is expanding, to the detriments of small farmers and gardeners in areas that have not yet been sucked into industrial agriculture.  It is power in the hands of a few giant corporations - organic and biological farmers here have incredible difficulty finding commercial amounts of corn or soy seed that have not been treated with neonics.

Re seeds, the OSSI web site has some interesting thoughts on germ plasm and the rights of the commons.   https://osseeds.org/

Um, I may be retired, but I guess the teacher in me still likes to talk biology/ecology.    ;-)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wenchsenior on December 28, 2018, 08:48:45 AM
Even as I acknowledge some prairie can't be made into forest, also please acknowledge that much prairie land once was forest, and if we stop using that land for animal ag, and revert it back to forest, we will dramatically improve our predicament.

I'm afraid I still disagree with this. At least in north america, most of the forest land which has been converted into supporting animal agriculture has never been turned into prairie, it is some of the eastern edge of the corn belt, where forests were cut down to make fields for corn and soybeans which are in turn fed to animals, either as a supplement to grazing on grasslands or a complete alternative in high density feed lots. In fact, bringing a lot of the tallgrass prairies into agricultural production has allowed a lot of the native forests of North America to regrow. If you travel through New England you've find lots of old farm houses and stone walls around old fields that are covered with new growth forests. Once agriculture became established in the great plains farming that thin and rocky soil was no longer viable and forests that were cleared in the 1600s and 1700s began to regrow in the 1800s and 1900s as new england farm families gave up the family farms and either moved west or moved to the cities.

Look, if your argument is that we're currently producing dramatically more animal protein than is possible only from sustainable grazing on grasslands, and as a result, excess demand for meat is creating a lot of damage to our planet, I certainly do agree with that.

But I don't understand the apparent argument that grasslands (prairies) are bad, while forests are good. Both are natural ecosystems, both sequester carbon, both support diverse groups of plants and animals. And in environments which might sustain either either a grassland or a forest ecosystem, prairies appear to be better and longer term sequesters of carbon than forests.*

*Here's a popular press article https://phys.org/news/2018-07-grasslands-reliable-carbon-trees.html and the original scientific paper behind the findings in that article http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacb39/meta

100% agree.  There is some reforestation that could hypothetically be done in the United States, but the entire central United States and south-central Canada is properly a grassland (or in some areas sage-brush high desert) ecosystem, which hypothetically should  be supporting entire communities of native species.  The goal should be restoring more of that, not fucking with it by trying to make trees grow where they can't.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on December 28, 2018, 10:26:14 AM

A powerful talk ends in anemic clapping. 23 minutes long. Watch the whole thing. He touches on terrestrial biomass of livestock vs humans vs wild.

https://unfccc6.meta-fusion.com/cop21/events/2015-12-11-19-30-abibimman-foundation?fbclid=IwAR3MHTVwMfCGknme_yecIECiKA9Pdga3-5TtyBACKs_MEZuko4IDlHRsFCA

So what do you think of that talk?

The first ten and last five minutes were just weird, and the broad generalizations (no, biomass from wood is not only for poor people) and tendencies towards religious sermons were annoying. The start itself was enough to make me want to turn it off. Meat production is a “forbidden topic” the same way there is a war on Christmas, ie in the heads of the believers.

But there were six minutes in the middle with a carbon flow chart that were interesting. For me the flow chart doesn’t show that the world should go vegan. Instead it illustrates the pressing need for a circular economy, reduction of waste, and overall reduction of meat consumption. In addition, it felt like he completely ignores the sea? We have to address the enormous soy consumption in salmon production.

We are not doomed. But it is a complex problem with complex solutions. In fact, I think one of the main reasons we are in this mess in the first place, is that we have fallen for the temptation to implement too many simple “solve it all” solutions. Like oil, cars, industrial agriculture, antibiotics; all of these are really good ideas in moderation. But when you start adding antibiotics to animal feed, you mess up the system. Traveling is good, mass tourism is bad. Etc.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: steveo on December 28, 2018, 02:39:31 PM
In other words, stop eating animals

The problem is people won't do this which makes this whole debate meaningless. I am skeptical about the whole climate change industry. The data and projected disasters are far from clear cut verified facts. There is too much posturing with too little understanding of the topic. Our understanding is extremely poor. Lastly the things that we could do to fix the potential problem people aren't willing to do.

I think people on hear should read the book Sapiens. I've only just started but one thing is clear and that is that humans (us) remake the planet to suit us and we've always done this. We are ecological disasters on the whole to other species.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on December 28, 2018, 05:36:33 PM
In other words, stop eating animals

The problem is people won't do this which makes this whole debate meaningless. I am skeptical about the whole climate change industry. The data and projected disasters are far from clear cut verified facts. There is too much posturing with too little understanding of the topic. Our understanding is extremely poor. Lastly the things that we could do to fix the potential problem people aren't willing to do.

I think people on hear should read the book Sapiens. I've only just started but one thing is clear and that is that humans (us) remake the planet to suit us and we've always done this. We are ecological disasters on the whole to other species.

It is very easy to effect change, if you have the political will, though. A gradual carbon tax - on all forms of carbon emission - and the revenue to be put into carbon capturing.

So, a higher price on beef. If you want to eat it, no problem - you'll just pay to plant trees or whatever in exchange.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on December 28, 2018, 05:55:54 PM
In other words, stop eating animals

The problem is people won't do this which makes this whole debate meaningless. I am skeptical about the whole climate change industry. The data and projected disasters are far from clear cut verified facts. There is too much posturing with too little understanding of the topic. Our understanding is extremely poor. Lastly the things that we could do to fix the potential problem people aren't willing to do.

I think people on hear should read the book Sapiens. I've only just started but one thing is clear and that is that humans (us) remake the planet to suit us and we've always done this. We are ecological disasters on the whole to other species.

It is very easy to effect change, if you have the political will, though. A gradual carbon tax - on all forms of carbon emission - and the revenue to be put into carbon capturing.

So, a higher price on beef. If you want to eat it, no problem - you'll just pay to plant trees or whatever in exchange.

Will a higher carbon tax affect CAFO and make more ecologically sane practices preferable?  Or will it just get passed on as another cost?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sixwings on December 28, 2018, 06:11:52 PM
In other words, stop eating animals

The problem is people won't do this which makes this whole debate meaningless. I am skeptical about the whole climate change industry. The data and projected disasters are far from clear cut verified facts. There is too much posturing with too little understanding of the topic. Our understanding is extremely poor. Lastly the things that we could do to fix the potential problem people aren't willing to do.

I think people on hear should read the book Sapiens. I've only just started but one thing is clear and that is that humans (us) remake the planet to suit us and we've always done this. We are ecological disasters on the whole to other species.

Cultured meat is the solution here, if people won't stop eating it, produce it differently.

Cultured meat:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat

It is IMO the #1 priority for stopping climate change. 7 billion meat eaters are not going to become vegan in 20 years, but we can change where the meat they eat comes from in that time period.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on December 28, 2018, 06:15:14 PM
In other words, stop eating animals

The problem is people won't do this which makes this whole debate meaningless. I am skeptical about the whole climate change industry. The data and projected disasters are far from clear cut verified facts. There is too much posturing with too little understanding of the topic. Our understanding is extremely poor. Lastly the things that we could do to fix the potential problem people aren't willing to do.

I think people on hear should read the book Sapiens. I've only just started but one thing is clear and that is that humans (us) remake the planet to suit us and we've always done this. We are ecological disasters on the whole to other species.

It is very easy to effect change, if you have the political will, though. A gradual carbon tax - on all forms of carbon emission - and the revenue to be put into carbon capturing.

So, a higher price on beef. If you want to eat it, no problem - you'll just pay to plant trees or whatever in exchange.

Will a higher carbon tax affect CAFO and make more ecologically sane practices preferable?  Or will it just get passed on as another cost?

Well, the basic premise is to internalise costs, right? So that every producer pays for the currently-free things they consume in their production. So if CAFO can be made lower carbon, 'great' - from that one perspective.

The biggest point I think is to actually use the tax raised to close they cycle, to capture that carbon - to get it as close to neutral as possible, and better than neutral if not.

Strong, independent department dealing with how the carbon tax money is spent - funding reforestation, technological solutions (solar powered fuel-from-air?), just basically greasing wheels - making things that are currently 'unaffordable' because of capitalism and the lack of a price on environmental destruction, have a level playing field once all costs are factored in.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: steveo on December 28, 2018, 11:02:13 PM
In other words, stop eating animals

The problem is people won't do this which makes this whole debate meaningless. I am skeptical about the whole climate change industry. The data and projected disasters are far from clear cut verified facts. There is too much posturing with too little understanding of the topic. Our understanding is extremely poor. Lastly the things that we could do to fix the potential problem people aren't willing to do.

I think people on hear should read the book Sapiens. I've only just started but one thing is clear and that is that humans (us) remake the planet to suit us and we've always done this. We are ecological disasters on the whole to other species.

It is very easy to effect change, if you have the political will, though. A gradual carbon tax - on all forms of carbon emission - and the revenue to be put into carbon capturing.

So, a higher price on beef. If you want to eat it, no problem - you'll just pay to plant trees or whatever in exchange.

Will a higher carbon tax affect CAFO and make more ecologically sane practices preferable?  Or will it just get passed on as another cost?

Well, the basic premise is to internalise costs, right? So that every producer pays for the currently-free things they consume in their production. So if CAFO can be made lower carbon, 'great' - from that one perspective.

The biggest point I think is to actually use the tax raised to close they cycle, to capture that carbon - to get it as close to neutral as possible, and better than neutral if not.

Strong, independent department dealing with how the carbon tax money is spent - funding reforestation, technological solutions (solar powered fuel-from-air?), just basically greasing wheels - making things that are currently 'unaffordable' because of capitalism and the lack of a price on environmental destruction, have a level playing field once all costs are factored in.

It sounds good in theory doesn't it. I like the idea as well. It's the way capitalism should work - i.e. the cost of a good or service should reflect the total cost of the product including the environmental cost. I have no confidence in pricing a carbon tax accurately though or in governments using the money wisely.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on December 29, 2018, 09:49:07 AM
Yup. I really feel like... with the Brexit mess, with the British political parties just flailing and failing, it should be possible to start a cold, clear headed, results-driven party.

Spend research money and whatnot where it has the most impact. In fact, spend ALL money where it has the most impact (understanding, of course, that this is not an easy thing). Try and use the scientific process, try and separate lobbying/money and state just like church and state were separated.

We have to get better at this, because we're just going nowhere at the moment. Two steps forward, four or five back.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: steveo on December 29, 2018, 03:29:24 PM
Yup. I really feel like... with the Brexit mess, with the British political parties just flailing and failing, it should be possible to start a cold, clear headed, results-driven party.

Spend research money and whatnot where it has the most impact. In fact, spend ALL money where it has the most impact (understanding, of course, that this is not an easy thing). Try and use the scientific process, try and separate lobbying/money and state just like church and state were separated.

We have to get better at this, because we're just going nowhere at the moment. Two steps forward, four or five back.

We are human beings and we simply don't think rationally like this as a group. It would be so much better if I was in charge of the whole world.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Aelias on December 29, 2018, 06:27:14 PM
Well, there’s a sobering read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/opinion/climate-change-global-warming-history.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinion&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

Happy New Year everyone.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: daverobev on December 30, 2018, 06:49:39 AM
Well, there’s a sobering read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/opinion/climate-change-global-warming-history.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinion&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

Happy New Year everyone.

It's mind blowing, how a few companies are allowing us to do this to ourselves.

The old question: are humans, collectively, more intelligent than bacteria on an agar plate (multiplication to limits -> population crash). Answer: doesn't fucking look like it.

Oh god, so so depressing.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on December 31, 2018, 01:57:36 AM
Cultured meat is the solution here, if people won't stop eating it, produce it differently.

Cultured meat:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat)
It's grown in foetal bovine serum. That is, they must get a cow pregnant, abort its foetus, extract its blood, and use that to grow the cultured meat in - in a tank kept warm by electricity, etc.


It's much simpler and creates less impact on the environment just to let the calf go to term and then grow it up for a year and then eat that.


Now, if they can make synthetic serum, great. But in the meantime it's just hype to get money for startups that'll go nowhere. I guess it'll be like fusion power - "20-30 years away" for the last 60 years.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on December 31, 2018, 02:19:18 AM
The old question: are humans, collectively, more intelligent than bacteria on an agar plate (multiplication to limits -> population crash). Answer: doesn't fucking look like it.

Oh god, so so depressing.


I've been thinking lemmings, with the only question being: are we still on the way to the cliff or are we already over the edge and just haven't hit the bottom yet?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on December 31, 2018, 04:01:08 AM
Assuming other human beings behave like amoebas, while you yourself are above all that, is ordinary old hubris, which is what gives us violent tyrannies.

It also grossly insults the efforts of the people who worked and fought and sacrificed and suffered and died to bring us democracy, free speech, freedom of association, freedom of religion, ended slavery and segregation, decriminalised homosexuality, invented and distributed sanitation and vaccines that have saved hundreds of millions of lives, enfranchised women, and so on.

Don't do that.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on December 31, 2018, 04:16:23 AM
Assuming other human beings behave like amoebas, while you yourself are above all that, is ordinary old hubris, which is what gives us violent tyrannies.

It also grossly insults the efforts of the people who worked and fought and sacrificed and suffered and died to bring us democracy, free speech, freedom of association, freedom of religion, ended slavery and segregation, decriminalised homosexuality, invented and distributed sanitation and vaccines that have saved hundreds of millions of lives, enfranchised women, and so on.

Don't do that.

Well I'm certainly including myself as one of the unwashed masses (hence "we") and daverobev didn't say anything I can see that exempts himself from our collective of dunces.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on February 10, 2019, 05:29:08 PM
Getting this thread out if mothballs as the brains on it are best placed to help me... The letter below was published in my local newspaper. I feel I have to respond, but I don't have the eloquence / right terms. I just started reading the Merchants of Doubt which would help me but I don't have time to finish it before the deadline for letters.

What would you say in response. I want to say something about how there is no debate, climate change is real and man made and then explain how science works (about evidence and peer review) and also how dishonourable groups have latched onto normal scientific doubt and exploited that.

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on February 10, 2019, 05:48:45 PM
Getting this thread out if mothballs as the brains on it are best placed to help me... The letter below was published in my local newspaper. I feel I have to respond, but I don't have the eloquence / right terms. I just started reading the Merchants of Doubt which would help me but I don't have time to finish it before the deadline for letters.

What would you say in response. I want to say something about how there is no debate, climate change is real and man made and then explain how science works (about evidence and peer review) and also how dishonourable groups have latched onto normal scientific doubt and exploited that.
From the letter, this is the key part.
Quote
"Is the increase of temperature man-inducted? This is the argument."
"What is needed is a formal Q&A between reputable scientists who hold appropriate degrees on the subject for and against to properly air the argument."

The letter author is looking for an easy out. Does he really think that scientists have not grappled with natural variability? His information sources are revealed by the assumption that we are just seeing variations that have happened before. Formal questioning and testing is baked into the scientific process. I've sat in first hand as climate change scientists have grappled with the climate change issues both big and small. I've seen improbable ideas shown to be both credible and worth further study and others thrown on the trash heap.

The author is looking for an easy out in either having a debate that will allow them to cherry pick the arguments they like, or delay until a 'more appropriate debate' is had. If the author really wanted to know, they would simply go read the publicly-available literature written by the scientists with appropriate degrees, or organizations of scientists with appropriate degrees, that have been written for the general audiences.

TL;DR response to letter author: Here, let me google the IPCC report(s) for you.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on February 11, 2019, 03:29:17 AM
Point out that the letter sounds like just another delaying tactic.  Ask the letter writer, alongside his scientific enquiries, to put his efforts into practical efforts that will lessen his environmental impact on the earth, and also the impacts of the community he lives in.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on February 11, 2019, 03:37:35 AM
I would think that the writer has never heard of the IPCC report!
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on February 12, 2019, 10:45:51 AM
Also, the author says that pollution is a separate issue (it's not) that can be solved, but measures to prevent pollution are also blocked. Think of the rollback of federal vehicle emissions standards by good ol' 45. Rolling back the clean power plan. Putting in more bike lanes and making biking safer so that people don't "have" to drive. Better public transportation. But no, those are all things that people who don't "believe" in climate change are also against.

This is not someone who wants to have an intellectually honest debate, and it's likely not worth replying to.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: PoutineLover on February 12, 2019, 11:52:54 AM
Also, the author says that pollution is a separate issue (it's not) that can be solved, but measures to prevent pollution are also blocked. Think of the rollback of federal vehicle emissions standards by good ol' 45. Rolling back the clean power plan. Putting in more bike lanes and making biking safer so that people don't "have" to drive. Better public transportation. But no, those are all things that people who don't "believe" in climate change are also against.

This is not someone who wants to have an intellectually honest debate, and it's likely not worth replying to.


If anything, a response would be for the people who are quiet but reading both sides. Maybe the writer wouldn't be convinced, but other people on the fence could still be persuaded. It's important and valuable to counter misinformation with facts and resources to do in depth research, even if the people peddling it would never admit they were wrong.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on February 13, 2019, 06:26:07 PM
Just a little update: Thanks to this thread, I've taken some major train trips and loved it! Managed to ride the entire line of the Coast Starlight in two separate business trips.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on February 14, 2019, 10:21:42 AM
Just a little update: Thanks to this thread, I've taken some major train trips and loved it! Managed to ride the entire line of the Coast Starlight in two separate business trips.

Good for you!

I went to a family wedding in the fall and looked into taking the train. It would have taken my entire travel time just to get there. :(
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: sol on February 14, 2019, 11:04:47 AM
I went to a family wedding in the fall and looked into taking the train. It would have taken my entire travel time just to get there. :(

Once you're retired and don't feel obligated to sell your time to a supposedly benevolent master, you can happily take the train and enjoy the ride.  You just have to shift your perspective a little.  Traveling by train becomes part of the trip to be enjoyed, rather than part you're trying to suffer through as quickly as possible to get on to the good parts. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kris on February 14, 2019, 11:29:28 AM
I went to a family wedding in the fall and looked into taking the train. It would have taken my entire travel time just to get there. :(

Once you're retired and don't feel obligated to sell your time to a supposedly benevolent master, you can happily take the train and enjoy the ride.  You just have to shift your perspective a little.  Traveling by train becomes part of the trip to be enjoyed, rather than part you're trying to suffer through as quickly as possible to get on to the good parts.

This. And in some cases, it really isn't all that much longer. My husband and I went from Minneapolis to Chicago by train last month. It took about 8 hours. Which is what it would have taken to drive, but without the stress. It took longer than a plane, yes. Except: A plane trip from MSP to Chicago takes about an hour. But you have to count the car travel to the airport, as well as the fact that you have to get to the airport early to go through security. And then it takes about half an hour to board before the takes off. And when you get to your destination, unless you have only carry-on bags, you have to go down to baggage claim and wait for that. And then, since airports are generally far outside the city, you have to get transportation into the city itself from the airport. And then there's the fact that all of this is stressful and unpleasant. Not to mention that the airplane itself is uncomfortable. So, a one-hour trip is actually much longer, and much higher on the unpleasantness factor.

Contrast that with how easy it was to get into the train, how comfortable it was, the fact that it was very low-stress, that the scenery was beautiful, that there was a dining car with good food, and that once we actually got to Chicago we were already in the middle of the city as soon as we arrived. Totally worth it if you have a little extra time.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on February 14, 2019, 03:07:56 PM
I went to a family wedding in the fall and looked into taking the train. It would have taken my entire travel time just to get there. :(

Once you're retired and don't feel obligated to sell your time to a supposedly benevolent master, you can happily take the train and enjoy the ride.  You just have to shift your perspective a little.  Traveling by train becomes part of the trip to be enjoyed, rather than part you're trying to suffer through as quickly as possible to get on to the good parts.

Oh, I have no doubt about that. It would have taken four days, however, just to get there. And I was traveling solo with two small children. Or would have been. As it was my brother flew with us (he doesn't get vacation time, so he could not have done a two-week round trip, or whatever it would have been) so I had help. It wasn't just the time, it was everything else about it as well. The train would have been multiple stops in multiple different places, sometimes overnight, so hotel stays and then getting back to the train. With two small children. With the Demon Child and an infant. By myself.

When they're older, we are totally taking the train.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: gaja on February 15, 2019, 05:14:54 PM
I went to a family wedding in the fall and looked into taking the train. It would have taken my entire travel time just to get there. :(

Once you're retired and don't feel obligated to sell your time to a supposedly benevolent master, you can happily take the train and enjoy the ride.  You just have to shift your perspective a little.  Traveling by train becomes part of the trip to be enjoyed, rather than part you're trying to suffer through as quickly as possible to get on to the good parts.

This. And in some cases, it really isn't all that much longer. My husband and I went from Minneapolis to Chicago by train last month. It took about 8 hours. Which is what it would have taken to drive, but without the stress. It took longer than a plane, yes. Except: A plane trip from MSP to Chicago takes about an hour. But you have to count the car travel to the airport, as well as the fact that you have to get to the airport early to go through security. And then it takes about half an hour to board before the takes off. And when you get to your destination, unless you have only carry-on bags, you have to go down to baggage claim and wait for that. And then, since airports are generally far outside the city, you have to get transportation into the city itself from the airport. And then there's the fact that all of this is stressful and unpleasant. Not to mention that the airplane itself is uncomfortable. So, a one-hour trip is actually much longer, and much higher on the unpleasantness factor.

Contrast that with how easy it was to get into the train, how comfortable it was, the fact that it was very low-stress, that the scenery was beautiful, that there was a dining car with good food, and that once we actually got to Chicago we were already in the middle of the city as soon as we arrived. Totally worth it if you have a little extra time.
I really wish there were more trains with sleeper cars. Time spent sleeping in a (relatively) comfortable bed does not count as travel time in my book.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wenchsenior on February 16, 2019, 08:11:43 AM
I have really enjoyed the little train travel I have done, and I am very sad that the city I've lived for almost 20 years has no passenger rail at all, nor do any cities within 4 hours' drive of me.  In fact, only one city that I have lived in during my entire life had passenger rail, and those lines didn't lead anywhere that I would have needed to travel (without making a week-long trip that meandered all over the place).  Lack of rail in the U.S. is a major bummer.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fru-Gal on February 16, 2019, 09:48:01 AM
Do you mind saying where you live, or what general part of the country?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: wenchsenior on February 16, 2019, 01:10:16 PM
Do you mind saying where you live, or what general part of the country?

Great Plains.  I did live for about a decade in Tucson in the 90s, and there was passenger rail running from there, but it didn't go anywhere we normally traveled.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on February 20, 2019, 05:18:07 PM
And meanwhile in institutional climate-denial land:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/20/climate/climate-national-security-threat.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Quote
According to a White House memo dated Feb. 14, Mr. Trump’s staff members have drafted an executive order to create a 12-member Presidential Committee on Climate Security that will advise Mr. Trump about “how a changing climate could affect the security of the United States.” The memo was first reported by The Washington Post.

The panel would include William Happer, a Princeton physicist who serves as Mr. Trump’s deputy assistant for emerging technologies. Dr. Happer has gained notoriety in the scientific community for his statements that carbon dioxide — the greenhouse gas that scientists say is trapping heat and warming the planet — is beneficial to humanity.

and

Quote
The White House memo notes that multiple scientific and defense reports have recently concluded that climate change poses a significant threat to national security, but it casts doubt on those reports, saying, “these scientific and national security judgments have not undergone a rigorous independent and adversarial peer review to examine the certainties and uncertainties of climate science, as well as implications for national security.”
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SachaFiscal on May 18, 2019, 07:29:56 PM
The problem isn't the climate change.  The elephant in the room is the size of the human population.  The earth can't sustain 7.5 billion people.

But, nobody wants to discuss it.

Hmmm....is Cache_Stache really Thanos? (hee hee)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on May 18, 2019, 08:55:31 PM
Impact = population x consumption.

People with low consumption say consumption is the problem. People with high consumption say population is the problem. In both cases, what they are really saying is that the impact is Somebody Else's Problem.

"Someone should do something, but not, of course, me."

I think we can casually dismiss such obviously self-serving arguments. But what we should recognise is that while most of us in the Western world can halve our consumption without much detriment to our lifestyles - and in fact improve it in some ways - within a few months, halving population in a few months would require a nuclear war. So we should begin by working on the consumption side of the equation.

Which, by the way, also saves us money. I believe there is a discussion forum somewhere dedicated to that...?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: SisterX on May 30, 2019, 11:20:39 PM
Impact = population x consumption.

People with low consumption say consumption is the problem. People with high consumption say population is the problem. In both cases, what they are really saying is that the impact is Somebody Else's Problem.

"Someone should do something, but not, of course, me."

I think we can casually dismiss such obviously self-serving arguments. But what we should recognise is that while most of us in the Western world can halve our consumption without much detriment to our lifestyles - and in fact improve it in some ways - within a few months, halving population in a few months would require a nuclear war. So we should begin by working on the consumption side of the equation.

Which, by the way, also saves us money. I believe there is a discussion forum somewhere dedicated to that...?

Beautifully put.

I'm just as annoyed by the argument of individual action vs. government action on climate change. "Individual actions don't matter when corporations can just spew out C02 in massive quantities" is up against "But nothing will ever change if we, individually, won't bother to change". There is room for both sides of that argument to be correct. We need total systemic change AND individual change. At this point, since this issue has been ignored and even worsened since before I was born, we need a complete overhaul of EVERYTHING. Baby steps will not cut it. Conversely, we all need to at least take baby steps so that we can then take big steps and leaps and do the hard work that needs to be done.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Fresh Bread on May 30, 2019, 11:43:40 PM
Impact = population x consumption.

People with low consumption say consumption is the problem. People with high consumption say population is the problem. In both cases, what they are really saying is that the impact is Somebody Else's Problem.

"Someone should do something, but not, of course, me."

I think we can casually dismiss such obviously self-serving arguments. But what we should recognise is that while most of us in the Western world can halve our consumption without much detriment to our lifestyles - and in fact improve it in some ways - within a few months, halving population in a few months would require a nuclear war. So we should begin by working on the consumption side of the equation.

Which, by the way, also saves us money. I believe there is a discussion forum somewhere dedicated to that...?

Isn't the person with low consumption doing something tho by having low consumption? Do you mean doing something bigger e.g. encouraging other people to have low consumption through whatever method?
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on May 31, 2019, 03:09:29 AM
Yes, reducing your consumption is doing something.

That it may not have a broader impact is irrelevant. In the days of segregation, the white person who treated black people with respect as individuals made no broader impact. A police officer in a corrupt department who refuses bribes makes no broader impact. The liquor store owner who refuses to serve the alcoholic makes no broader impact. Yet these were and are the right thing to do.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Glenstache on May 31, 2019, 08:01:49 AM
From Forbes:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2019/05/29/renewable-energy-costs-tumble/#1910dc0ae8ce

Direct competition with "freedom gas", I guess.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on August 19, 2019, 08:08:09 AM
The problem isn't the climate change.  The elephant in the room is the size of the human population.  The earth can't sustain 7.5 billion people.

But, nobody wants to discuss it.

Hmmm....is Cache_Stache really Thanos? (hee hee)

What is your message you're trying to communicate?  I don't understand your comment.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Cache_Stash on August 19, 2019, 08:13:32 AM
Impact = population x consumption.

People with low consumption say consumption is the problem. People with high consumption say population is the problem. In both cases, what they are really saying is that the impact is Somebody Else's Problem.

"Someone should do something, but not, of course, me."

I think we can casually dismiss such obviously self-serving arguments. But what we should recognise is that while most of us in the Western world can halve our consumption without much detriment to our lifestyles - and in fact improve it in some ways - within a few months, halving population in a few months would require a nuclear war. So we should begin by working on the consumption side of the equation.

Which, by the way, also saves us money. I believe there is a discussion forum somewhere dedicated to that...?

That is a simplistic view and binary.  There are two more possible choices:

1.  Some believe the population is the problem and that consumption is a problem and both need to be addressed.

2. Some believe the population and consumption are not a problem.

I take number 1 as my view point.

Don't pigeon hole people.  It makes me want to throw you into the "Let's make the world a binary place and make it as divisive as possible pigeon hole".
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on August 20, 2019, 08:50:38 PM
It doesn't matter if population is a problem or not, because short of nuclear genocide there's nothing anyone can do about population today. Whereas you can do something about consumption. Today.

That's why people focus on population. So they've an excuse not to reduce their consumption.

I'm interested in what we can today. We've spent the last 30 years talking about what we could do tomorrow, and it's got us nowhere.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on August 21, 2019, 07:40:57 AM
It doesn't matter if population is a problem or not, because short of nuclear genocide there's nothing anyone can do about population today. Whereas you can do something about consumption. Today.

That's why people focus on population. So they've an excuse not to reduce their consumption.

I'm interested in what we can today. We've spent the last 30 years talking about what we could do tomorrow, and it's got us nowhere.

People were talking about population in the 70s.   It was called ZPG. I guess people went with the same argument then.   /s

But actually there is lots we can do about population. Women with more education and more personal power (I.e. access to contraception and abortions) have fewer children and have them later.  So people have been doing something, just not as much as is needed.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on August 21, 2019, 10:00:22 AM
Population is easy to control.  Release some weaponized anthrax, problem solved.  It's more difficult to control in ethical ways.  :P
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on August 21, 2019, 11:24:40 AM
Population is easy to control.  Release some weaponized anthrax, problem solved.  It's more difficult to control in ethical ways.  :P

And we are back to the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse (war, famine, plague and wild beasts).  Seriously, we do things to help, or nature will do it for us.  We already have wars, famines, plagues.  The wild beasts are having a hard time controlling our numbers, although I am sure all the hungry polar bears losing their sea ice would be happy to eat more tourists in Churchill. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on August 22, 2019, 06:00:25 PM
But actually there is lots we can do about population. Women with more education and more personal power (I.e. access to contraception and abortions) have fewer children and have them later.  So people have been doing something, just not as much as is needed.
I said: nothing we can do about population today. The education and empowerment of women - something never advocated by ZPG types, since they tend to be high-consumption middle-aged and older males - takes a generation, 20-30 years to have a significant effect. And then it just levels off population, it doesn't shrink it.

Whereas we can shrink our consumption today.

Now, the education and empowerment of women can and should happen at the same time, because whatever it does or doesn't do to pollution etc, it's the right thing to do. But this doesn't give us a pass to keep on with our happy motoring and producing vast quantities of rubbish.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on August 23, 2019, 08:08:08 AM
But actually there is lots we can do about population. Women with more education and more personal power (I.e. access to contraception and abortions) have fewer children and have them later.  So people have been doing something, just not as much as is needed.
I said: nothing we can do about population today. The education and empowerment of women - something never advocated by ZPG types, since they tend to be high-consumption middle-aged and older males - takes a generation, 20-30 years to have a significant effect. And then it just levels off population, it doesn't shrink it.

Whereas we can shrink our consumption today.

Now, the education and empowerment of women can and should happen at the same time, because whatever it does or doesn't do to pollution etc, it's the right thing to do. But this doesn't give us a pass to keep on with our happy motoring and producing vast quantities of rubbish.

You kind of missed my point. If we had taken ZPG seriously back in the 70s, what would global
Population be today?  China obviously did. I did. And it isn't just number of children, it is parental age. Population grows faster if parents are young, i.e. a short generation time. Any population ecology textbook can explain this.   

So yes we need to reduce consumption,  but we also need to do things which encourage low reproductive rates. Having 6 or 8 or 15 children makes perfect sense when child mortality rates are high and a couple may end up with 2 surviving children. Not so much sense having 3 or 4 or 5 children when they all survive to adulthood. Our biology  and our technology are not working well together at this time.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Prairie Stash on August 23, 2019, 02:57:23 PM
But actually there is lots we can do about population. Women with more education and more personal power (I.e. access to contraception and abortions) have fewer children and have them later.  So people have been doing something, just not as much as is needed.
I said: nothing we can do about population today. The education and empowerment of women - something never advocated by ZPG types, since they tend to be high-consumption middle-aged and older males - takes a generation, 20-30 years to have a significant effect. And then it just levels off population, it doesn't shrink it.

Whereas we can shrink our consumption today.

Now, the education and empowerment of women can and should happen at the same time, because whatever it does or doesn't do to pollution etc, it's the right thing to do. But this doesn't give us a pass to keep on with our happy motoring and producing vast quantities of rubbish.

You kind of missed my point. If we had taken ZPG seriously back in the 70s, what would global
Population be today?  China obviously did. I did. And it isn't just number of children, it is parental age. Population grows faster if parents are young, i.e. a short generation time. Any population ecology textbook can explain this.   

So yes we need to reduce consumption,  but we also need to do things which encourage low reproductive rates. Having 6 or 8 or 15 children makes perfect sense when child mortality rates are high and a couple may end up with 2 surviving children. Not so much sense having 3 or 4 or 5 children when they all survive to adulthood. Our biology  and our technology are not working well together at this time.
The one child policy was enacted in 1979 and Chinese population will peak in a few years, around 2023. Enacting a one child policy today, would the worldwide population peak 40 years later? Around 2060?

But lets examine ZPG. China is #1, by country (not by capita) for emissions (27.2%) and has had less than ZPG since 1979. USA is the second largest, 14.6%, and has a growth rate of 0.7% so the population is growing slowly; cumulatively that's a majority of emissions and it averages as under ZPG. The majority of the worlds emissions and yet when combining the population growth, its ZPG.

Here's the UN take on the futility of ZPG in mitigating climate change:
Two-thirds of the projected growth of the global population through 2050 will be driven by current age structures. It would occur even if childbearing in high-fertility countries today were to fall immediately to around two births per woman over a lifetime.
- note most of the population growth is in low emitting countries, except for 78 million new Americans. Unfortunately an american emits far more than most other people.

In other words, even if we enacted ZPG today, we would still see growth.

As an extreme, if Americans adopted a lifestyle such as India, that would be a 90% reduction in GHG. 13% of the worlds emissions, just by reducing consumption. If India is not your liking, if Americans were like Germans or Japanese, the worldwide emissions would drop 7%.

What amount of reductions would be achieved from ZPG by 2050? According to the UN, none, worldwide emissions would increase.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Kyle Schuant on August 23, 2019, 03:48:45 PM
You kind of missed my point. If we had taken ZPG seriously back in the 70s, what would global
Population be today?  China obviously did.
"New data on carbon shows that China's emissions per head of population have surpassed the EU for the first time."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29239194 (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29239194)

Yeah, okay. That worked.

"While the per capita average for the world as a whole is 5 tonnes of carbon dioxide, China is now producing 7.2 tonnes per person, to the EU's 6.8 tonnes. The US is still far ahead on 16.5 tonnes per person."

For reference, Australia and Canada are at about 20 tonnes per person. Low population, high per person consumption countries have a lot of people who say, "well, obviously high population is the problem, which is to say: really, it's not my problem."


Note: sustainable emissions are about 1 tonne per person.



Happy motoring!

Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on August 23, 2019, 05:18:40 PM
You kind of missed my point. If we had taken ZPG seriously back in the 70s, what would global
Population be today?  China obviously did.
"New data on carbon shows that China's emissions per head of population have surpassed the EU for the first time."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29239194 (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29239194)

Yeah, okay. That worked.

"While the per capita average for the world as a whole is 5 tonnes of carbon dioxide, China is now producing 7.2 tonnes per person, to the EU's 6.8 tonnes. The US is still far ahead on 16.5 tonnes per person."

For reference, Australia and Canada are at about 20 tonnes per person. Low population, high per person consumption countries have a lot of people who say, "well, obviously high population is the problem, which is to say: really, it's not my problem."


Note: sustainable emissions are about 1 tonne per person.



Happy motoring!

If I understand correctly how they do the calculations,  those per capita numbers include everything, including industry. Which means China's industrial output increases their per capita numbers.

I know Canada's horrible numbers have a bunch of causes - cold climate, industry with aging infrastructure,  long distances, the Alberta tar sands, plus many more.  We also had a Conservative government that was into climate change denial, was basically into neglect of environmental science.   The Liberal election in 2015 started to reverse some of this, but it has been a struggle.  Plus you get rural massive opposition to windfarms, at least in Ontario, because the first ones were so badly planned. It's a mess.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on August 24, 2019, 08:39:19 AM
The conservatives in Ontario are currently led by a man who doesn't believe in climate change, and has a mandate to reduce public transit funding and increase ease of personal automobile use.  He has decreed that our city cannot tax gasoline to pay for transit.  He has refused to participate in our countries carbon pricing plan.

It's hard to get ahead on the environment when half of the people running the country are telling folks that there's no reason to conserve, and making it cheaper/easier to waste resources.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on August 24, 2019, 12:16:35 PM
The conservatives in Ontario are currently led by a man who doesn't believe in climate change, and has a mandate to reduce public transit funding and increase ease of personal automobile use.  He has decreed that our city cannot tax gasoline to pay for transit.  He has refused to participate in our countries carbon pricing plan.

It's hard to get ahead on the environment when half of the people running the country are telling folks that there's no reason to conserve, and making it cheaper/easier to waste resources.

He is so petty he wants stickers on gas pumps (negative ones, of course) about the carbon tax.  As if he is our Supreme Leader.  And in a province with a large francophone minority, and a huge immigrant population in its largest city, he is very anti-minority languages.

Are enough of us interested in the upcoming federal election to start a new thread on Off Topic?  Or do we wait until the writ is dropped?

Spoiler: show
 Plus it would be educational for the Americans on here to see another system, equally flawed but in a different way, have an election. 
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Stashasaurus on August 24, 2019, 12:24:35 PM
I would like that off topic thread. I think there is a real chance of a minority government, and power to the smaller parties. Interesting times ahead.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Aelias on August 27, 2019, 09:18:20 AM
I'm an American, and I would lurk the hell out of a Canadian politics thread!  I'm always embarrassed by the asymmetry of how much my colleagues know about politics in the US versus what I know about politics in their country, and I do actually make an effort!  And because we're neighbors, I feel like Canada is either mythologized or demonized by Americans depending on their political preferences -- a more nuanced view would benefit everyone.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on August 27, 2019, 09:33:00 AM
I'm an American, and I would lurk the hell out of a Canadian politics thread!  I'm always embarrassed by the asymmetry of how much my colleagues know about politics in the US versus what I know about politics in their country, and I do actually make an effort!  And because we're neighbors, I feel like Canada is either mythologized or demonized by Americans depending on their political preferences -- a more nuanced view would benefit everyone.

We're sorta America lite.  Same language, similar culture . . . but typically a bit less extreme on things.  Also we pronounce 'about' correctly.  :P
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: Aelias on August 27, 2019, 03:18:57 PM

We're sorta America lite.  Same language, similar culture . . . but typically a bit less extreme on things.  Also we pronounce 'about' correctly.  :P

::American brain explodes in red, white, and blue fireworks::
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: former player on August 27, 2019, 04:34:16 PM
I'm an American, and I would lurk the hell out of a Canadian politics thread!  I'm always embarrassed by the asymmetry of how much my colleagues know about politics in the US versus what I know about politics in their country, and I do actually make an effort!  And because we're neighbors, I feel like Canada is either mythologized or demonized by Americans depending on their political preferences -- a more nuanced view would benefit everyone.

We're sorta America lite.  Same language, similar culture . . . but typically a bit less extreme on things.  Also we pronounce 'about' correctly.  :P
And "buoy"?  Please tell me you pronounce that correctly too.

ETA And "route".
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on August 27, 2019, 05:38:36 PM
I'm an American, and I would lurk the hell out of a Canadian politics thread!  I'm always embarrassed by the asymmetry of how much my colleagues know about politics in the US versus what I know about politics in their country, and I do actually make an effort!  And because we're neighbors, I feel like Canada is either mythologized or demonized by Americans depending on their political preferences -- a more nuanced view would benefit everyone.

We're sorta America lite.  Same language, similar culture . . . but typically a bit less extreme on things.  Also we pronounce 'about' correctly.  :P
And "buoy"?  Please tell me you pronounce that correctly too.

ETA And "route".

Soooooo OT here. Of course we pronounce words properly, the CBC had a huge influence on Canadian pronunciation. 

Buoy is basically boo e (hard e).   Route is root.  Route is not rout.  About rhymes with rout, not boot.

We sound a bit like people from upper New York State, who of course listened to CBC radio.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: diapasoun on August 27, 2019, 10:51:02 PM
We sound a bit like people from upper New York State, who of course listened to CBC radio.

As someone originally from the New York hinterlands, can confirm. (I like to describe where I'm from as "Almost-Canada" -- Toronto was closer to my hometown than New York City.)
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on August 28, 2019, 06:42:37 AM
PSA - a Canada election thread has been started (thank you Stashasaurus) so we won't clutter up this thread with election talk.
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: GuitarStv on August 28, 2019, 07:49:45 AM
I'm an American, and I would lurk the hell out of a Canadian politics thread!  I'm always embarrassed by the asymmetry of how much my colleagues know about politics in the US versus what I know about politics in their country, and I do actually make an effort!  And because we're neighbors, I feel like Canada is either mythologized or demonized by Americans depending on their political preferences -- a more nuanced view would benefit everyone.

We're sorta America lite.  Same language, similar culture . . . but typically a bit less extreme on things.  Also we pronounce 'about' correctly.  :P
And "buoy"?  Please tell me you pronounce that correctly too.

ETA And "route".

Yes, we do.

:P
Title: Re: IPCC Climate Report on 1.5
Post by: RetiredAt63 on September 02, 2019, 11:00:03 AM
Back on topic.    ;-)

I thought this was an interesting article explaining why environmental issues have become politicized.  They were not always.


https://newrepublic.com/article/154879/misogyny-climate-deniers?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=tnr_daily&fbclid=IwAR3X0RInf6W8dSSOuBJMSDg5rpxxo0hSGb-ojAHtzXkex9YdOuACNAWMLn8