Author Topic: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?  (Read 22398 times)

sol

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #400 on: March 20, 2017, 08:51:21 AM »
Reports out today from the Congressional Budget Office that TrumpCare will reduce the budget deficit by $336 billion by 2026* however it will result in an 24 million Americans no longer having health insurance.

*Not sure if that is a per annum figure, or in total over the next 10 years. Makes a difference I guess :)

I suppose out of the headline figures both sides will have more ammunition to fire at each other.

Source? Looks like the headline should read "ACA increases budget deficit by $336 billion by 2026 more than ACHA."

No, RyanCare does not increase the budget deficit.  It reduces the deficit because it kills Medicaid for new enrollees after 2020 and reduces the Obamacare subsidies, which more than offsets the reduction in taxes that it contains.
Yes, that would be the point of the headline. The ACA would increase the deficit by 336 billion, when compared to the ACHA.

Except that headline would be a lie.  All of obamacare's spending was paid for with reductions to other programs or with new taxes, so it was deliberately (and somewhat uncharacteristically for DC) budget neutral.  It did not increase the deficit. 

Not that facts matter to you.

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #401 on: March 20, 2017, 11:07:09 AM »
Reports out today from the Congressional Budget Office that TrumpCare will reduce the budget deficit by $336 billion by 2026* however it will result in an 24 million Americans no longer having health insurance.

*Not sure if that is a per annum figure, or in total over the next 10 years. Makes a difference I guess :)

I suppose out of the headline figures both sides will have more ammunition to fire at each other.

Source? Looks like the headline should read "ACA increases budget deficit by $336 billion by 2026 more than ACHA."

No, RyanCare does not increase the budget deficit.  It reduces the deficit because it kills Medicaid for new enrollees after 2020 and reduces the Obamacare subsidies, which more than offsets the reduction in taxes that it contains.
Yes, that would be the point of the headline. The ACA would increase the deficit by 336 billion, when compared to the ACHA.

Why are you flipping the baseline in that confusing and awkward way?  Like it or not, the ACA was passed several years ago and is now the baseline.  It's much more clear to say that the AHCA reduces the deficit by $336 Billion (primarily by gutting Medicare for poor people).
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Metric Mouse

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #402 on: March 21, 2017, 05:08:31 AM »
Why are you flipping the baseline in that confusing and awkward way?  Like it or not, the ACA was passed several years ago and is now the baseline.  It's much more clear to say that the AHCA reduces the deficit by $336 Billion (primarily by gutting Medicare for poor people).
Flipping the baseline, as you put it, can be a great way to gain perspective. I'm sorry you find it confusing. On another note, the current budget deficit is $352billion dollars.
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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #403 on: March 21, 2017, 05:28:46 AM »
Why are you flipping the baseline in that confusing and awkward way?  Like it or not, the ACA was passed several years ago and is now the baseline.  It's much more clear to say that the AHCA reduces the deficit by $336 Billion (primarily by gutting Medicare for poor people).
Flipping the baseline, as you put it, can be a great way to gain perspective. I'm sorry you find it confusing. On another note, the current budget deficit is $352billion dollars.

I prefer to gain perspective from the content of the article, not the headline. The original headline was appropriate for the article. No need to add confusion. Unless you have some sort of underlying agenda of course.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #404 on: March 21, 2017, 06:35:25 AM »
Why are you flipping the baseline in that confusing and awkward way?  Like it or not, the ACA was passed several years ago and is now the baseline.  It's much more clear to say that the AHCA reduces the deficit by $336 Billion (primarily by gutting Medicare for poor people).
Flipping the baseline, as you put it, can be a great way to gain perspective. I'm sorry you find it confusing. On another note, the current budget deficit is $352billion dollars.

I prefer to gain perspective from the content of the article, not the headline. The original headline was appropriate for the article. No need to add confusion. Unless you have some sort of underlying agenda of course.
It was not my intent to confuse. I am sorry you find such things confusing.
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Moustaches

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #405 on: March 21, 2017, 08:35:11 AM »
Floor vote Thursday, and the bill was changed last night with the following:

1. Republicans to allocate $75-$80 Billion more for subsidies for old people, but details to be figured out in the senate so that they don't need to redo the CBO score.  I had no idea you can pass a bill that is half done like that.

2. Medicaid expansion ended immediately - I guess they are worried states will pump up their Medicaid rolls before the block grant caps are set in 2020.

3. Will allow states to make requirements that Medicaid recipients work to obtain benefits

I'm excited for them to give more old subsidies to old people as I plan to retire early and hopefully I'll be able to better afford health care in that case.

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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #406 on: March 21, 2017, 08:37:10 AM »
Why are you flipping the baseline in that confusing and awkward way?  Like it or not, the ACA was passed several years ago and is now the baseline.  It's much more clear to say that the AHCA reduces the deficit by $336 Billion (primarily by gutting Medicare for poor people).
Flipping the baseline, as you put it, can be a great way to gain perspective. I'm sorry you find it confusing. On another note, the current budget deficit is $352billion dollars.

Budget deficits are not the most important metric. The more important one is national debt to GDP ratio. The yearly budget deficit can continue to be around 4 to 5% of the total national debt, and the debt to gdp ratio would not get larger.

But as long as we are talking about deficits, it's unconscionable to grow the deficit by half a trillion dollars or more over the next ten years by growing the military budgets. We should be smarter about the use of military, not bigger.

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #407 on: March 21, 2017, 08:42:22 AM »
Right, this is to garner support from the conservative Freedom wing. I don't think it will be enough, we're only getting started on the massive tweaks I referred to last week. The "old people" change starts at age 50. Under that, you're on your own.

CBO estimate I read, shows AHCA will raise premiums 15-20% ON TOP OF what was already happening from the ACA. That's due to individual mandate repeal. So whatever tax credits you are going to get, will get eaten up by higher premiums. The variance by geography for premiums is so large, I think them giving a quotable estimate of 15-20% is kind of irresponsible. They also noted that their estimates are subject to a wide variance.

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #408 on: March 21, 2017, 08:52:17 AM »
Right, this is to garner support from the conservative Freedom wing. I don't think it will be enough, we're only getting started on the massive tweaks I referred to last week. The "old people" change starts at age 50. Under that, you're on your own.

CBO estimate I read, shows AHCA will raise premiums 15-20% ON TOP OF what was already happening from the ACA. That's due to individual mandate repeal. So whatever tax credits you are going to get, will get eaten up by higher premiums. The variance by geography for premiums is so large, I think them giving a quotable estimate of 15-20% is kind of irresponsible. They also noted that their estimates are subject to a wide variance.

Age is not a static thing. I'm 37 now but will be 50 someday.  And for my early retirement plans, 50-65 are the critical years in order to make it until Medicare starts.  Therefore, selfishly I'm hoping that any changes from here forward benefit older people as I can't benefit from changes that benefit young people since I'm in my late 30's.  I'm concerned about the rise in premiums for old people due to the 5/1 ratio change.  I'm hoping that the bill fails but preparing for the worst.
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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #409 on: March 21, 2017, 08:54:43 AM »
Right, this is to garner support from the conservative Freedom wing. I don't think it will be enough, we're only getting started on the massive tweaks I referred to last week. The "old people" change starts at age 50. Under that, you're on your own.

CBO estimate I read, shows AHCA will raise premiums 15-20% ON TOP OF what was already happening from the ACA. That's due to individual mandate repeal. So whatever tax credits you are going to get, will get eaten up by higher premiums. The variance by geography for premiums is so large, I think them giving a quotable estimate of 15-20% is kind of irresponsible. They also noted that their estimates are subject to a wide variance.

Age is not a static thing. I'm 37 now but will be 50 someday.  And for my early retirement plans, 50-65 are the critical years in order to make it until Medicare starts.  Therefore, selfishly I'm hoping that any changes from here forward benefit older people as I can't benefit from changes that benefit young people since I'm in my late 30's.  I'm concerned about the rise in premiums for old people due to the 5/1 ratio change.  I'm hoping that the bill fails but preparing for the worst.

But wait there's more.
The Republicans will likely try to increase the age at which you can get Medicare to 67.
Good luck with those health care insurance premiums at ages 64 to 66 and a half.

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #410 on: March 21, 2017, 08:56:30 AM »
Right, this is to garner support from the conservative Freedom wing. I don't think it will be enough, we're only getting started on the massive tweaks I referred to last week. The "old people" change starts at age 50. Under that, you're on your own.

CBO estimate I read, shows AHCA will raise premiums 15-20% ON TOP OF what was already happening from the ACA. That's due to individual mandate repeal. So whatever tax credits you are going to get, will get eaten up by higher premiums. The variance by geography for premiums is so large, I think them giving a quotable estimate of 15-20% is kind of irresponsible. They also noted that their estimates are subject to a wide variance.

Age is not a static thing. I'm 37 now but will be 50 someday.  And for my early retirement plans, 50-65 are the critical years in order to make it until Medicare starts.  Therefore, selfishly I'm hoping that any changes from here forward benefit older people as I can't benefit from changes that benefit young people since I'm in my late 30's.  I'm concerned about the rise in premiums for old people due to the 5/1 ratio change.  I'm hoping that the bill fails but preparing for the worst.

But wait there's more.
The Republicans will likely try to increase the age at which you can get Medicare to 67.
Good luck with those health care insurance premiums at ages 64 to 66 and a half.

Source?  I know they would love to get rid of all of the government entitlements, but not sure if they want to go against the AARP and it's 38 million members, that have nothing better to do than vote.
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DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #411 on: March 21, 2017, 09:23:01 AM »
Right, this is to garner support from the conservative Freedom wing. I don't think it will be enough, we're only getting started on the massive tweaks I referred to last week. The "old people" change starts at age 50. Under that, you're on your own.

CBO estimate I read, shows AHCA will raise premiums 15-20% ON TOP OF what was already happening from the ACA. That's due to individual mandate repeal. So whatever tax credits you are going to get, will get eaten up by higher premiums. The variance by geography for premiums is so large, I think them giving a quotable estimate of 15-20% is kind of irresponsible. They also noted that their estimates are subject to a wide variance.

Age is not a static thing. I'm 37 now but will be 50 someday.  And for my early retirement plans, 50-65 are the critical years in order to make it until Medicare starts.  Therefore, selfishly I'm hoping that any changes from here forward benefit older people as I can't benefit from changes that benefit young people since I'm in my late 30's.  I'm concerned about the rise in premiums for old people due to the 5/1 ratio change.  I'm hoping that the bill fails but preparing for the worst.

But wait there's more.
The Republicans will likely try to increase the age at which you can get Medicare to 67.
Good luck with those health care insurance premiums at ages 64 to 66 and a half.

Source?  I know they would love to get rid of all of the government entitlements, but not sure if they want to go against the AARP and it's 38 million members, that have nothing better to do than vote.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardgleckman/2016/06/22/what-paul-ryans-latest-health-proposal-would-mean-for-seniors/#34162a378163

iris lily

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #412 on: March 21, 2017, 04:40:35 PM »
Right, this is to garner support from the conservative Freedom wing. I don't think it will be enough, we're only getting started on the massive tweaks I referred to last week. The "old people" change starts at age 50. Under that, you're on your own.

CBO estimate I read, shows AHCA will raise premiums 15-20% ON TOP OF what was already happening from the ACA. That's due to individual mandate repeal. So whatever tax credits you are going to get, will get eaten up by higher premiums. The variance by geography for premiums is so large, I think them giving a quotable estimate of 15-20% is kind of irresponsible. They also noted that their estimates are subject to a wide variance.

Age is not a static thing. I'm 37 now but will be 50 someday.  And for my early retirement plans, 50-65 are the critical years in order to make it until Medicare starts.  Therefore, selfishly I'm hoping that any changes from here forward benefit older people as I can't benefit from changes that benefit young people since I'm in my late 30's.  I'm concerned about the rise in premiums for old people due to the 5/1 ratio change.  I'm hoping that the bill fails but preparing for the worst.

But wait there's more.
The Republicans will likely try to increase the age at which you can get Medicare to 67.
Good luck with those health care insurance premiums at ages 64 to 66 and a half.

Source?  I know they would love to get rid of all of the government entitlements, but not sure if they want to go against the AARP and it's 38 million members, that have nothing better to do than vote.

Haha to the bolded. True, but now I should probably make noise about the ageist disrespect that shows. Still, haha.

BeginnerStache

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #413 on: March 22, 2017, 05:12:47 AM »
Why are you flipping the baseline in that confusing and awkward way?  Like it or not, the ACA was passed several years ago and is now the baseline.  It's much more clear to say that the AHCA reduces the deficit by $336 Billion (primarily by gutting Medicare for poor people).
Flipping the baseline, as you put it, can be a great way to gain perspective. I'm sorry you find it confusing. On another note, the current budget deficit is $352billion dollars.

I prefer to gain perspective from the content of the article, not the headline. The original headline was appropriate for the article. No need to add confusion. Unless you have some sort of underlying agenda of course.
It was not my intent to confuse. I am sorry you find such things confusing.

I am sorry you didn't understand my post. Seems to be a common theme with you.

jrhampt

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #414 on: March 22, 2017, 05:52:37 AM »
I am most concerned about cuts to Medicaid in the proposed replacement of the ACA.  Medicare doesn't cover nursing home stays; Medicaid does. 

11 million seniors and people with disabilities are covered by both Medicare and Medicaid.

2 out of 3 Medicare beneficiaries in nursing homes have their care covered by Medicaid.

My father in law relies on Medicaid for long term care.  This is something that directly impacts the elderly, their families, and people who aspire to become elderly in the future (ALL of us).

jrhampt

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #415 on: March 22, 2017, 10:13:35 AM »
Supporting facts to above post:

https://www.google.com/amp/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_58d01716e4b0be71dcf6d5a7/amp

Hair on fire situation as far as I'm concerned.  We'd be better off repealing the ACA with no replacement than padding Trumpcare.

sol

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #416 on: March 22, 2017, 10:20:18 AM »
Supporting facts to above post:

https://www.google.com/amp/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_58d01716e4b0be71dcf6d5a7/amp

Hair on fire situation as far as I'm concerned.  We'd be better off repealing the ACA with no replacement than padding Trumpcare.

Yesterday the NYTimes said the same thing.  The new republican healthcare plan will result in higher costs and fewer people covered than if they just straight up repealed the ACA and we all went back to 2007. 

The republican plan is literally worse than nothing at all, like it was deliberately designed to suck as much as possible.  This observation lends credence to the theory that republicans want their plan to fail, so they can blame democrats and continue to campaign against the ACA.

jrhampt

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #417 on: March 22, 2017, 10:27:18 AM »
Supporting facts to above post:

https://www.google.com/amp/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_58d01716e4b0be71dcf6d5a7/amp

Hair on fire situation as far as I'm concerned.  We'd be better off repealing the ACA with no replacement than padding Trumpcare.

Yesterday the NYTimes said the same thing.  The new republican healthcare plan will result in higher costs and fewer people covered than if they just straight up repealed the ACA and we all went back to 2007. 

The republican plan is literally worse than nothing at all, like it was deliberately designed to suck as much as possible.  This observation lends credence to the theory that republicans want their plan to fail, so they can blame democrats and continue to campaign against the ACA.

Yes!  The House votes on this Thursday.  Call your representative!  Even my staunchly Republican Mom opposes this bill.

Axecleaver

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #418 on: March 22, 2017, 04:47:16 PM »
NY republicans added an amendment (the Collins Amendment) that the states can't bill the counties for Medicaid anymore. That was clever: now they have the votes from all the NY republicans, some of whom (Collins) come from districts where over 80% of property taxes go straight to Medicaid. But if it passes, NY will have to come up with $2.3 billion dollars. They _could_ reduce Medicaid benefits, but I think they'll opt to raise income taxes and blame republicans for it.

New York treats Medicaid like a jobs program. They're not about to reduce it... if you want gold plated Medicaid benefits, move here!

Details here: http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/273264/so-what-is-the-faso-collins-amendment-to-the-ahca/

jim555

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #419 on: March 22, 2017, 04:52:14 PM »
What happened to states rights?  All of a sudden conservatives are all ok with dictating how a state arranges its affairs internally.

jrhampt

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #420 on: March 23, 2017, 02:31:40 PM »
House vote delayed.

sol

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #421 on: March 23, 2017, 02:54:45 PM »
House vote delayed.

They don't have the votes to pass it, so holding the vote now would mean shooting it down.

Still no CBO score on the new version, but the last one said we would end up with even fewer people with coverage than we had before the ACA.  Think about that, the republican plan is to not only undo all of the gains from Obamacare, but to actually make things worse than they were before Obamacare.  It's literally worse than a straight up full repeal of the ACA would be.

So I'm not surprised they are getting pushback from within their own party, some of those folks are smart enough to read the writing on the wall.  This plan does not make America great again, it makes it worse than it was before and they already know what a powerful campaign issue healthcare can become.

But they still might get something through, to save face.  They have to pass some token version of the bill, or else it looks like the party is completely incapable of governing.  After so many years of obstructionism, I'm not sure they even know how to do anything else except grind the gears of government.

Telecaster

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #422 on: March 23, 2017, 03:55:18 PM »
I agree with the House Freedom Caucus.  If you say you are going to repeal the law for seven years, then grow a set of balls and repeal it. 

If you don't want to repeal it, then simply say so. 


Axecleaver

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #423 on: March 24, 2017, 09:23:37 AM »
Re: states rights. Looks like our governor is taking a page from the Southern playbook:

"... If the bill were to pass both houses of Congress, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he'd sue the federal government if the amendment proposed by Reps. Chris Collins and John Faso shift the cost of Medicaid from the counties to the state is approved. Cuomo, in a conference call with reporters, argued that the amendment could be unconstitutional because it violates state sovereignty." (from Politico's local daily mailer on NY Healthcare Reform).

NY Times has a good scoreboard on who's in and who's out here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/22/upshot/health-care-vote-whip-count-comparison.html?mtrref=t.co&mtrref=undefined&gwh=5BA7080C8D8C12C9642255E011816163&gwt=pay

CBO scored the AHCA revisions. They've covered zero additional lives (so, for those keeping score, 24m will lose coverage), and now saves just $150b over 10 years. That means the latest changes did no good at all, and cost $187b.

I stand by my prior comment: this has no chance to pass in its current form. On the plus side, the Republican plan is so weak, we may keep Obamacare. People seem to like it a lot more today than they did last November.

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #424 on: March 24, 2017, 09:40:10 AM »
Re: states rights. Looks like our governor is taking a page from the Southern playbook:

"... If the bill were to pass both houses of Congress, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he'd sue the federal government if the amendment proposed by Reps. Chris Collins and John Faso shift the cost of Medicaid from the counties to the state is approved. Cuomo, in a conference call with reporters, argued that the amendment could be unconstitutional because it violates state sovereignty." (from Politico's local daily mailer on NY Healthcare Reform).

NY Times has a good scoreboard on who's in and who's out here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/22/upshot/health-care-vote-whip-count-comparison.html?mtrref=t.co&mtrref=undefined&gwh=5BA7080C8D8C12C9642255E011816163&gwt=pay

CBO scored the AHCA revisions. They've covered zero additional lives (so, for those keeping score, 24m will lose coverage), and now saves just $150b over 10 years. That means the latest changes did no good at all, and cost $187b.

I stand by my prior comment: this has no chance to pass in its current form. On the plus side, the Republican plan is so weak, we may keep Obamacare. People seem to like it a lot more today than they did last November.

Strangely enough, Trump might help with keeping the ACA, since he's trying to bully and threaten the GOP into passing the AHCA, giving them the ultimatum that if they don't pass it, Obamacare stays.

(And I think he's just vindictive enough that he'd veto any future version of the AHCA Congress came up with just to spite them for not bowing down to him.)
"Well I'm sure I'd feel much worse if I weren't under such heavy sedation."   - David St. Hubins, This is Spinal Tap

dividendman

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #425 on: March 24, 2017, 02:19:32 PM »
Nothing to see here folks. Looks like ACA is here to stay.

brooklynguy

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #426 on: March 24, 2017, 02:27:20 PM »
Strangely enough, Trump might help with keeping the ACA, since he's trying to bully and threaten the GOP into passing the AHCA, giving them the ultimatum that if they don't pass it, Obamacare stays.

(And I think he's just vindictive enough that he'd veto any future version of the AHCA Congress came up with just to spite them for not bowing down to him.)

According to the NY Times:

Quote from: NY Times
Mr. Trump, in a telephone interview moments after the bill was pulled, blamed Democrats and predicted that they would seek a deal within a year after, he asserted, “Obamacare explodes” because of higher premiums.

In addition, as I type, Paul Ryan is giving a press conference that appears to be focused on how Obamacare remains the law of the land but is only going to get worse and worse.

So it seems the GOP's next step might be to revert to the tactic of trying to sabotage the ACA (refusing to enforce the individual mandate, proclaiming that we are in a death spiral in the hopes of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, etc.) and then pinning the blame on the Democrats.

dividendman

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #427 on: March 24, 2017, 02:39:50 PM »
Strangely enough, Trump might help with keeping the ACA, since he's trying to bully and threaten the GOP into passing the AHCA, giving them the ultimatum that if they don't pass it, Obamacare stays.

(And I think he's just vindictive enough that he'd veto any future version of the AHCA Congress came up with just to spite them for not bowing down to him.)

According to the NY Times:

Quote from: NY Times
Mr. Trump, in a telephone interview moments after the bill was pulled, blamed Democrats and predicted that they would seek a deal within a year after, he asserted, “Obamacare explodes” because of higher premiums.

In addition, as I type, Paul Ryan is giving a press conference that appears to be focused on how Obamacare remains the law of the land but is only going to get worse and worse.

So it seems the GOP's next step might be to revert to the tactic of trying to sabotage the ACA (refusing to enforce the individual mandate, proclaiming that we are in a death spiral in the hopes of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, etc.) and then pinning the blame on the Democrats.

Pin schmin. The GOP is in charge of everything. Everything is their fault. That's what the dems should be saying.

Also, all of the law remains in place. So... while they can try to sabotage it, folks will still get subsidies, minimum coverage benefits, Medicaid expansion etc. It will be especially good for the states that work with the ACA (most blue states).

sol

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #428 on: March 24, 2017, 02:59:55 PM »
So it seems the GOP's next step might be to revert to the tactic of trying to sabotage the ACA (refusing to enforce the individual mandate, proclaiming that we are in a death spiral in the hopes of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, etc.) and then pinning the blame on the Democrats.

See, this is perfect for them.  Their constituents get to keep their subsidized healthcare, and they get to continue to campaign against Obamacare as a wedge issue.  Everyone wins when the republicans don't get what they want!

It didn't have to be this way.  Trump could have abandoned the freedom caucus and tried to triangulate with conservative democrats to fulfill his campaign promises of better cheaper coverage for everyone.  Cut the extreme fringe of your own party out of the equation by cooperating with the opposition where you can find common ground, that also happens to be widely popular with the public.  Bill Clinton did exactly this trick, from the other side.

But instead of actually becoming the populist he pretended to be during the campaign, trump is such a political noob that he got schooled by his crazy/crafty advisors.  Priebus and Ryan and Bannon et al. took him on a ride down to DC 101, and I think he's just now realizing exactly how far in over his head he really is.  These guys play rough!  They appear to have their own agendas and are not purely loyal to me!  I feel so used!

Here's a tip, POTUS.  If you're not controlling the people in your administration, then they are controlling you.  Maybe try to figure out why.

wenchsenior

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #429 on: March 24, 2017, 03:18:03 PM »
So it seems the GOP's next step might be to revert to the tactic of trying to sabotage the ACA (refusing to enforce the individual mandate, proclaiming that we are in a death spiral in the hopes of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, etc.) and then pinning the blame on the Democrats.

See, this is perfect for them.  Their constituents get to keep their subsidized healthcare, and they get to continue to campaign against Obamacare as a wedge issue.  Everyone wins when the republicans don't get what they want!

It didn't have to be this way.  Trump could have abandoned the freedom caucus and tried to triangulate with conservative democrats to fulfill his campaign promises of better cheaper coverage for everyone.  Cut the extreme fringe of your own party out of the equation by cooperating with the opposition where you can find common ground, that also happens to be widely popular with the public.  Bill Clinton did exactly this trick, from the other side.

But instead of actually becoming the populist he pretended to be during the campaign, trump is such a political noob that he got schooled by his crazy/crafty advisors.  Priebus and Ryan and Bannon et al. took him on a ride down to DC 101, and I think he's just now realizing exactly how far in over his head he really is.  These guys play rough!  They appear to have their own agendas and are not purely loyal to me!  I feel so used!

Here's a tip, POTUS.  If you're not controlling the people in your administration, then they are controlling you.  Maybe try to figure out why.

I feel like this is giving Ryan too much credit. He also appears to be an incredibly incompetent schmuck heading up Amateur Hour.  However, it's possible that he was trying to present the most un-passable bill possible the entire time.

sol

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #430 on: March 24, 2017, 03:45:45 PM »
Sure, it's possible that "designed to fail" was part of the plan all along.

I think the problem for republicans was in asking conservatives to vote FOR something, like subsidies they don't like, as part of a larger package deal.  If they had instead had just floated a bill to repeal all of the taxes on rich people, and do nothing else, I think every single republican would have voted for that.  They love to vote against taxes, and they could then blame the democrats for not being able to do more unless the country elects them a GOP supermajority.

They could have claimed victory for overturning part of the ACA, left good health insurance in place for their constituents, preserved their favorite campaign issue for the base, presented a unified win for the cheetoh monster, and appeased their ultra wealthy party backers with billions of $.  While simultaneously undermining the ACAs future by turning it into s budget buster.

That's only one of about five different paths I can see that they could have taken, that would have been better for them.  I'm still not sure if their avoidance of these better outcomes was deliberate or due to incompetence.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #431 on: March 24, 2017, 03:54:58 PM »
Yeah I don't get why the GOP even puts up with the crazies of the Freedom Caucus and the likes. It's not like they're going to side with the other side.

tyort1

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #432 on: March 24, 2017, 04:49:26 PM »
I have to say, reading the title of this thread now makes me smile.  Delicious!
Frugalite in training.

MonkeyJenga

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #433 on: March 24, 2017, 06:46:56 PM »
Strangely enough, Trump might help with keeping the ACA, since he's trying to bully and threaten the GOP into passing the AHCA, giving them the ultimatum that if they don't pass it, Obamacare stays.

(And I think he's just vindictive enough that he'd veto any future version of the AHCA Congress came up with just to spite them for not bowing down to him.)

According to the NY Times:

Quote from: NY Times
Mr. Trump, in a telephone interview moments after the bill was pulled, blamed Democrats and predicted that they would seek a deal within a year after, he asserted, “Obamacare explodes” because of higher premiums.

In addition, as I type, Paul Ryan is giving a press conference that appears to be focused on how Obamacare remains the law of the land but is only going to get worse and worse.

So it seems the GOP's next step might be to revert to the tactic of trying to sabotage the ACA (refusing to enforce the individual mandate, proclaiming that we are in a death spiral in the hopes of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, etc.) and then pinning the blame on the Democrats.

Pin schmin. The GOP is in charge of everything. Everything is their fault. That's what the dems should be saying.

Yep. Obamacare, at this point, IS Trumpcare. If the Republicans can't repeal, and the Republicans can't replace, then the Republicans endorse the ACA. If they fuck with it, it is on them. If they can't fix it, it is on them.

Obama ain't the president anymore. And people want their goddamn healthcare.
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Moustaches

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #434 on: March 27, 2017, 10:02:26 AM »
Strangely enough, Trump might help with keeping the ACA, since he's trying to bully and threaten the GOP into passing the AHCA, giving them the ultimatum that if they don't pass it, Obamacare stays.

(And I think he's just vindictive enough that he'd veto any future version of the AHCA Congress came up with just to spite them for not bowing down to him.)

According to the NY Times:

Quote from: NY Times
Mr. Trump, in a telephone interview moments after the bill was pulled, blamed Democrats and predicted that they would seek a deal within a year after, he asserted, “Obamacare explodes” because of higher premiums.

In addition, as I type, Paul Ryan is giving a press conference that appears to be focused on how Obamacare remains the law of the land but is only going to get worse and worse.

So it seems the GOP's next step might be to revert to the tactic of trying to sabotage the ACA (refusing to enforce the individual mandate, proclaiming that we are in a death spiral in the hopes of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, etc.) and then pinning the blame on the Democrats.

Pin schmin. The GOP is in charge of everything. Everything is their fault. That's what the dems should be saying.

Yep. Obamacare, at this point, IS Trumpcare. If the Republicans can't repeal, and the Republicans can't replace, then the Republicans endorse the ACA. If they fuck with it, it is on them. If they can't fix it, it is on them.

Obama ain't the president anymore. And people want their goddamn healthcare.

Pinning the blame on the democrats makes the republicans look weak. If you can't even pass a bill in the House where you are up ~20 seats, how is it the minority party's fault?  This is an epic disaster and I'd like to see the Trump apologists respond.  Now, they have given democrats campaign material about their horrible healthcare policies, have deepened dysfunction in their own party which could scuttle future major bills (infrastructure, tax cuts), and wasted time. 

My goals going in to the election was for no major financial changes to happen as I coast in to early retirement, so I voted for Hillary Clinton.  It turns out that due to the incompetence of the republicans, I might get my wish.

Live like a badass, so that later you can live like a badass.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #435 on: March 27, 2017, 08:24:46 PM »
Healthcare insurance has to be one of the most fundamental concerns for early retirees, because most of us are not going to be able to get retiree healthcare from an employer.

hoping2retire35

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Re: Impending repeal of Obamacare--what to do?
« Reply #436 on: March 28, 2017, 07:05:45 AM »
Strangely enough, Trump might help with keeping the ACA, since he's trying to bully and threaten the GOP into passing the AHCA, giving them the ultimatum that if they don't pass it, Obamacare stays.

(And I think he's just vindictive enough that he'd veto any future version of the AHCA Congress came up with just to spite them for not bowing down to him.)

According to the NY Times:

Quote from: NY Times
Mr. Trump, in a telephone interview moments after the bill was pulled, blamed Democrats and predicted that they would seek a deal within a year after, he asserted, “Obamacare explodes” because of higher premiums.

In addition, as I type, Paul Ryan is giving a press conference that appears to be focused on how Obamacare remains the law of the land but is only going to get worse and worse.

So it seems the GOP's next step might be to revert to the tactic of trying to sabotage the ACA (refusing to enforce the individual mandate, proclaiming that we are in a death spiral in the hopes of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, etc.) and then pinning the blame on the Democrats.

Pin schmin. The GOP is in charge of everything. Everything is their fault. That's what the dems should be saying.

Yep. Obamacare, at this point, IS Trumpcare. If the Republicans can't repeal, and the Republicans can't replace, then the Republicans endorse the ACA. If they fuck with it, it is on them. If they can't fix it, it is on them.

Obama ain't the president anymore. And people want their goddamn healthcare.

I am curious how the blame will fall. I doubt they quite 'own' it just yet but they can't really say its great, evil democrats doing this now. Maybe it will be seen more abstract in another year as more problems arise from it as something to be fixed, or Trump and Ryan will work with some purple dems. We shall see.