Author Topic: How will the shutdown get resolved?  (Read 6870 times)

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6785
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
How will the shutdown get resolved?
« on: January 20, 2018, 10:00:15 AM »
I am furloughed as of this morning.  DC is still arguing about who "caused" the lapse of appropriations.

Eventually, they'll work something out and I can go back to work.  Any ideas on how that's going to play out?

From my perspective, way out here on the left coast, this is an easy fix.  Everyone is tired of passing a long series of one-month long continuing resolutions at 2017 budget levels, and wants a real 2018 budget.  Congress put together a bipartisan compromise deal (daca fix plus border wall funding), which Trump rejected.  McConnell could put that compromise bill into a 2018 budget bill and give it a floor vote at almost ANY budget level including exactly what 2017 was, it would easily pass, and Trump could sign it.  I could go back to work.

Trump says he won't sign it because it offers a path to citizenship to dreamers through daca, but this sure looks like an artificial tempest, to me.  Easy majorities on both sides of the aisle want a daca fix.  Everyone agrees that daca is going to get fixed eventually, and that deporting approximately one million young people who have committed no crime is both immoral and logistically impossible to execute on.  Trump has no choice but to fix DACA.  He can threaten to end it (and has) but nobody really believes that's a serious possibility, just from a practical standpoint of how you could possibly enforce that.

My best guess is that Trump already knows daca is going to get fixed one way or another, and only threatened to end it because he was seeking leverage to get democrats in congress to agree to funding his border wall.  It's a pretty weak negotiating tactic since he can't possibly make good on his threat, but in this case it seems to have worked anyway because democrats DID agree to more border security funding in exchange for a daca fix.  I'm not sure why he rejected it, if that's the case.  You won, Donnie!  Cash in and declare victory on twitter!

With that background, I'm trying to predict where we'll be in a week or a month when they finally get their heads together.  Will they pass another short term CR in exchange for some little tidbit, like chips funding?  Will they democrats totally cave and give Trump his $25billion border wall and ask nothing in return?  Is Trump going to go crawling back to Chuck Schumer and beg for the chance to sign the Graham-Durbin compromise bill?  Any guesses on when I can go back to work?

Your opinions welcome.  Some of you are probably angrier about the shutdown than I am, so feel free to tell me I'm a redneck/libtard if it will make you feel better.

Travis

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2254
  • Location: Arizona
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2018, 10:12:14 AM »
Most of my staff are Department of the Army Civilians.  Yesterday was an absolute mess simply not knowing if all funding was going to be cut off or not.  Our higher headquarters said they'd send us an updated list of who was essential/exempt, but as of this morning I still haven't been informed.

I could be remembering things wrong, but it seemed like the President said he cancelled the Executive Order a couple months ago to force Congress to create a long-term law for DACA.  Now that there is one, he appears to be rejecting it.  I'll admit I'm not as read-in on this as others, but it appears that Congress found a compromise they could run with, but because the President didn't like it, the House altered it and the Senate rejected it.  I think the fallout from this is a fair chunk of Republicans will abandon the President and get things going again.  It would be nice to see if they can make something veto-proof.  In the short term, both sides will spend at least until Wednesday trying to spin this mess in their favor.  That seemed to be the atmosphere yesterday.  Everyone on Capitol Hill knew it wasn't going to pass and they were just jockeying for position for the post-shutdown negotiations.

the_fixer

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 367
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2018, 10:58:08 AM »
Sol,

I would be genuinely interested to see documentation on where Trump stopped the plan that Congress passed. This is the first I have heard of it.

Personally I wish that our representatives were not allowed to attach any pet projects. Address each issue on it's own merits and pass or fail it on that criteria.

Need to pass a budget pass a budget.

Want to reform healthcare do it, do not hold the budget or anything else hostage.

Want to pass immigration reform address the issue and resolve it without adulterating other items.


Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk


Paul der Krake

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4142
  • Age: 10
  • Location: us-west-2
  • Bot - Do Not Reply
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2018, 11:24:23 AM »
Prediction: DACA loses popular support every hour that the shutdown remains in effect.

A half-assed compromise emerges in a couple of days. Trump boasts about his negotiation skills.

Aelias

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 167
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2018, 12:20:23 PM »

I would be genuinely interested to see documentation on where Trump stopped the plan that Congress passed. This is the first I have heard of it.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

I don't think that's what he said.  I think @sol is referring to this:

"On Friday, Schumer thought he might have struck a deal with the president after having been summoned to the White House for a final round of negotiating. During the meeting, Schumer later said on the Senate floor, he offered Trump a deal: Schumer would support a border wall if Trump would agree to add provisions to the spending bill that would provide legal status for the "DREAMers" who were brought to the United States illegally as children.
Afterward, both sides proclaimed that they had made progress toward a deal.
"We had a long and detailed meeting," Schumer said. "We discussed all of the major outstanding issues, we made some progress, but we still have a good number of disagreements. The discussions will continue."
But the disagreements bested the discussions. The deal-maker president chose not to make an agreement that would have infuriated immigration hard-liners in his own party."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-s-second-year-starts-government-sputtering-stop-n839311

I tried to find the least objectionable source on this I could on this.  Unfortunately, FoxNews isn't reporting on either the meeting or what happened after.  I searched "Schumer" and couldn't find it.  Would be happy to be proven wrong though.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6785
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2018, 12:33:57 PM »
I would be genuinely interested to see documentation on where Trump stopped the plan that Congress passed. This is the first I have heard of it.

Congress didn't pass it, because McConnell won't bring it up for a vote until Trump says he'll sign it.  Senators Graham and Durbin worked out a bipartisan compromise deal that included a temporary daca extension, increased funding for border security, reductions in immigration quotes from some countries, and and end to "family reunification" immigration (aka "chain migration").  It looks like it had enough support on both sides of the aisle to pass, but the tea party (minority) wing of the republicans opposed it, and they convinced Trump to oppose it (surprise surprise, Trump caters to the extremist minority base).

Just google "graham-durbin" and you can read all about it at the source of your choosing.

Quote
Want to reform healthcare do it, do not hold the budget or anything else hostage.

Want to pass immigration reform address the issue and resolve it without adulterating other items.

I think it's important to note the distinction between Ted Cruz's shutdown strategy and Chuck Schumer's shutdown strategy.  Ted Cruz was withholding a minority suport to try to overturn the singular policy achievement of the administration (the ACA).  Chuck Schumer is withholding minority support to get a deal that the majority all say that they want (daca fix), and only the President opposes.  Daca is an EASY fix that everyone agrees is going to happen one way or another.  It's not comprehensive immigration reform, it's a tiny piece that's an easy win for everyone.  There's a bipartisan compromise plan on the table that everyone agrees would pass.

These two shutdowns would only be similar if Chuck Schumer was withholding minority support to overturn the republican's signature policy achievement, ie. tax reform.  THAT would be a big ask.  THAT would be taking a page from Ted Cruz.

But daca is a minority fringe issue that everyone on both sides of Congress wants.  The president is preventing Congress from doing what it wants to do, and trying to blame democrats for it.  I actually don't blame Mitch McConnell for something, for once.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2018, 12:43:54 PM by sol »

the_fixer

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 367
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2018, 12:58:22 PM »
Sorry, I know one portion passed it and the other failed to get the votes, I mixed up the terms.

-----

I just picked a few recent examples of how they hold bills, budgets or whatever hostage untill they get XYZ that they want that is not even related to issue at hand. Not trying to compare them to see who is worse.

It is a disservice to the American people as it takes away from what the real focus should be.

For example I would be fine if they were to battle it out over the budget and the government were to shutdown untill they could pass it. I think we would end up with a better budget in the end and we could see who really stands for what.

Instead the focus has been taken away from the budget to focus on DACA.

I feel we are getting to wrapped up in the partisan politics and failing to hold the politicians accountable but they keep us distracted with the latest drama.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk


AdrianC

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 901
  • Location: Cincinnati
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2018, 01:10:32 PM »
Prediction: DACA loses popular support every hour that the shutdown remains in effect.

A half-assed compromise emerges in a couple of days. Trump boasts about his negotiation skills.

This. I think the Dems have screwed up.

Ocinfo

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 295
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2018, 01:17:05 PM »
I live in DC and am affected by the shutdown but not as directly as Sol (my work continues but my partners in government are mostly furloughed). The earliest this ends is Monday evening (no real votes will happen until then) but I expect it will continue for a while if Democrats can successfully change the narrative to Republicans being unable to lead. There is no reason that we should not have a long term budget. There is a bipartisan majority in both chambers that could run the country but both chambers refuse to vote on anything unless a majority of Republicans are for a bill. Problem is the Republican Party is at least two parties in one. If Ryan and McConnell would essentially form a coalition government, things would get done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6785
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2018, 01:32:19 PM »
I think the Dems have screwed up.

How do you feel about all of the republicans who also publicly oppose the house's CR bill?  It's not like the democrats are the only one's opposing this plan. 

Lindsey Graham, for example, doesn't support it because he thinks there's a deal to be made and he wants some consequences to get people to the negotiating table instead of just more delay without any action, which is what we get if the House bill passes.

Gin1984

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4567
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2018, 01:36:09 PM »
Prediction: DACA loses popular support every hour that the shutdown remains in effect.

A half-assed compromise emerges in a couple of days. Trump boasts about his negotiation skills.

This. I think the Dems have screwed up.
From the dem side, none of us want them to compromise on this, if they capitulated, they would have lost support from the left.  So how have they screwed up?  They got nothing for voting yes on this.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11315
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2018, 01:40:42 PM »
Trump is in power now.  I'm expecting the dispute resolution to unfold a lot like this realistic simulation from youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUC2EQvdzmY

MayDay

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3593
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2018, 01:54:14 PM »
I think the Dems should hold firm. Most people will be pissed at Trump if they spin it right. The Dems need to get better at spinning and worry less about the truth (slightly sarcastic, slightly not).

Aelias

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 167
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2018, 02:07:26 PM »
Here's the thing.  The left--even the moderate left--is often mad at the party for being spineless and giving in too easily in the name of being the party of "grown ups" who actually want to govern.  In the past, where the Dems have caved to prevent a shutdown, that's been their narrative.  And they tried to do the same thing here--that's what Durbin-Graham and Friday's Schumer meeting were all about.  But Trump has been so wildly inconsistent, after stating that he'd sign "whatever [the Congress] gives me", that even that strategy fell through.

So, now we're in a shutdown.  That means the "grown ups" narrative is out the window.  So, now the Dems HAVE to get DACA.  Otherwise their constituency will say, "Wow, even when you try to stand for something, you still can't get it done."  They've taken their stand, so now they have to stick with it.

But they need to be messaging like crazy if this is going to work.  If the GOP manages to turn the public against DACA, Dems are seriously screwed.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6785
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2018, 02:16:09 PM »
Most people will be pissed at Trump if they spin it right.

I don't think spin is going to matter much, because everyone's position is already staked out. 

Each side is going to blame the other side, no matter what happens.  After they get this resolved, both sides will claim they are victorious over the evil people who caused the shutdown.  People will believe their own side's argument is both virtuous and true, and think the other side's argument is all stupid posturing.

From where I sit, Congress actually did their job and hammered out a compromise that would pass both houses, and then Trump threw a shithole sized monkey wrench into it while shitting all over the compromise plan.  As far as I can tell, the President is the only reason we don't have a budget right now.  Even republicans in Congress who agree with his policies are blaming him for screwing this up.

At first I thought it was just Trump trying to play master negotiator, to get a better deal at the last minute by making crazy outlandish demands when he already had a deal he was happy with.  But then he went ahead and delivered on his "our country needs a good shutdown" rhetoric, and here we are. 

This presidential record from the library of congress suggests his intention to shut down government has been stalled a few months by the CRs.


If this is Trump's negotiating style, I think we can reasonably expect a nuclear strike on North Korea in the near future.  Maybe the day before the Mueller probe publishes it's summary report.

wenchsenior

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1693
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2018, 02:42:22 PM »
Prediction: DACA loses popular support every hour that the shutdown remains in effect.

A half-assed compromise emerges in a couple of days. Trump boasts about his negotiation skills.

This. I think the Dems have screwed up.
From the dem side, none of us want them to compromise on this, if they capitulated, they would have lost support from the left.  So how have they screwed up?  They got nothing for voting yes on this.

I vote Dem, and I would have preferred they not shut the government down over this.   So they would not have lost MY support as a Dem voter.  Not because I wouldn't like the DACA fix resolved, but just because I get pissed when either party uses basic governmental functioning and my husband's paycheck as a bargaining chip.

 But I take your point about the most activist part of the party being really angry with the Dems if they didn't take a hard stand.

On the other hand, I think the chances of a DACA fix becoming less popular with all voters EXCEPT the extreme activist wing rise the longer this drags on.  Which means the Dems will catch more backlash the longer it goes on.  Given that the activist base is going to take any possible chance to vote against Trump/GOP over the next couple of years, regardless of how annoyed they are at the Dem leadership, I don't think this is likely to play to the Dem strategic advantage.

But, who knows...

Gin1984

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4567
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2018, 02:44:57 PM »
Prediction: DACA loses popular support every hour that the shutdown remains in effect.

A half-assed compromise emerges in a couple of days. Trump boasts about his negotiation skills.

This. I think the Dems have screwed up.
From the dem side, none of us want them to compromise on this, if they capitulated, they would have lost support from the left.  So how have they screwed up?  They got nothing for voting yes on this.

I vote Dem, and I would have preferred they not shut the government down over this.   So they would not have lost MY support as a Dem voter.  Not because I wouldn't like the DACA fix resolved, but just because I get pissed when either party uses basic governmental functioning and my husband's paycheck as a bargaining chip.

 But I take your point about the most activist part of the party being really angry with the Dems if they didn't take a hard stand.

On the other hand, I think the chances of a DACA fix becoming less popular with all voters EXCEPT the extreme activist wing rise the longer this drags on.  Which means the Dems will catch more backlash the longer it goes on.  Given that the activist base is going to take any possible chance to vote against Trump/GOP over the next couple of years, regardless of how annoyed they are at the Dem leadership, I don't think this is likely to play to the Dem strategic advantage.

But, who knows...
There are a lot of left voters who did not vote for Clinton (see Bernie bros and the like).  It is not about holding something hostage but expecting compromise on both sides.  The Dems need to stop compromising if the other side refuses to.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk


Paul der Krake

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4142
  • Age: 10
  • Location: us-west-2
  • Bot - Do Not Reply
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2018, 02:56:50 PM »
I think the Dems have screwed up.

How do you feel about all of the republicans who also publicly oppose the house's CR bill?  It's not like the democrats are the only one's opposing this plan. 

Lindsey Graham, for example, doesn't support it because he thinks there's a deal to be made and he wants some consequences to get people to the negotiating table instead of just more delay without any action, which is what we get if the House bill passes.
I learned long ago to hold the modern GOP to same standards as I hold for crazy people spouting nonsense on the subway.

That view is not incompatible with thinking that the Democrats are acting recklessly here, even as someone highly sympathetic to the DACA cause.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7994
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2018, 04:02:52 PM »
I think the Dems have screwed up.

How do you feel about all of the republicans who also publicly oppose the house's CR bill?  It's not like the democrats are the only one's opposing this plan. 


I don't think this is getting enough attention.  The senate needs 60 votes here, and given their majority as I understand it all plans come from the GOP controlled committee and put up for a vote by McConnell. GOP has 51 members.  Right now it seems they can't even get 50 votes, let alone 60.  Flake, McCain, McConnell, Paul, Graham, Lee all voted no (ok, technically McCain simply didn't vote).
On the flip side, a number of Dems voted yes (Jones, Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp & Manchin)

So  - by senate rules the GOP are the ones to bring the bill to the floor (technically here a procedural motion), and yet only 45/51 GOPers supported it.  Sure, if there had been 9 or 10 Dems who voted yes the political pressure on the defectors may have passed this bill... but it's hard for me to say it's all the Dem's fault here.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6785
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2018, 07:01:15 PM »
It is not about holding something hostage but expecting compromise on both sides.  The Dems need to stop compromising if the other side refuses to.

I think this situation is a little more nuanced than that.

In the Ted Cruz shutdown he did it in September, right up front, by saying "you need to repeal ACA or we're going to shutter the government."  There was no negotiating.  He took the hard line that democrats needed to overturn their single most important piece of legislation, and nothing else would matter, and he pounced on the chance to shut it down on October 1.

In this case, democrats have been angling for a fix to the daca problem for years.  Obama used an executive order because republicans in congress refused to pass a real fix.  These days, even most republicans want it fixed.  Democrats have been talking about this fix for like a year now.  When they couldn't come to a deal in September, democrats folded and voted for the CR.  When the second deadline came they pushed for a fix, and when republicans refused democrats folded again and voted for another CR.  When the third deadline came, democrats folded a third time.  It's been almost four months, and democrats have been nothing but accommodating on this issue.  Spineless, even.  They have deferred to Trump at every possible turn, agreeing to fund the government with short term CRs without getting the fix that everyone agrees is going to happen before March anyway.

So this fourth time around, some of them actually took a stand in the hopes that a real deadline might incentivize a real compromise solution, and it worked!  They agreed on one!  They even offered to let Trump declare victory on the border wall to get the daca fix, and he still turned it down.  Some Republicans stood with them, because continuous short term CRs are no way to run the greatest nation on earth.  It's embarrassing.

Eventually, I think democrats will fold like spineless worms again.  They always have before, so why should this time be any different?  Trump is never going to agree to a daca fix that lets Pelosi smile at a press conference, so the only way this gets fixed is if McConnell and Ryan write it and beg Trump to sign it while flattering is very large tie.  I think his petty vanity prevents him from giving democrats the appearance of a win, even if it's a win that republicans also want.

Which makes me think the real problem here was democrats publicly adopting the daca cause in the first place.  By making it a party issue they drew too much attention to it.  I suspect congress would have quietly resolved things on their own without so much popular coverage.  Now that's it's a widely known party issue, republicans won't let it pass because it looks bad for them.  It's like it was previously an obvious bipartisan solution, but now that dems are championing it and getting it media coverage and the country is behind it, it's suddenly too popular to pass.

Let this be a lesson to congressional democrats; anything you support Trump will burn to the ground just to be obstinate.  Please don't make an issue about not nuking North Korea!  Please don't support a national infrastructure plan!  Please don't come out in support of children's health insurance!  (shit, too late on that last one.)




pecunia

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 448
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2018, 07:02:03 PM »
Quote
ďGive me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore."

Despite me quoting the poem, I oppose immigration.  This country has enough people.  However, the DACA folks are already here.  This IS their home.

Just don't allow them to let their extended families in from those countries recently described by our president.  These are the holey land.

Forget the wall unless we get Mexico to pay for it as originally promised.

Sibley

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3081
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Chicago, IL
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2018, 09:39:41 PM »
Pecunia - if I'm not mistaken, the only reason the US has a positive birth rate is because of immigrants (new and recent). If we stopped immigration entirely, at some point our population would start to decline. We can look at various countries in Europe and I believe Japan to see how that can play out. Not sure if that's something you've thought about.

-----------
Warning: irrationality ahead.
My sister works for the Fed. She's furloughed. In her case, she's ok for about a month, but is just starting out and has massive student loan debt, a car loan, a loan to pay for bar exam review, and not much in savings yet (no, she's not on MMM. She's actually pretty frugal though, so given time I expect she'll be just fine). Losing a paycheck is going to hurt her badly, quickly. I'm furious at Congress in general for being terrible ethically, morally, and at doing their damn jobs. I want to vote each and every single one of the idiots out of office. Then I want to rake them over the coals and bring them up on criminal and civil charges. Then throw them in prison. All of them. And the people we're going to replace them with will be all the people who don't get elected now - women, non-whites, non-Christians, non-straight. and then I'll hit all the white men I know who'll complain bitterly with a 2x4 and tell them to shut up, they'd screwed everything up enough and it was someone else's turn to fix it.

Everyone eligible needs to vote in EVERY primary, general, and special election. No excuses. I want 100% voter turnout. And if you don't vote, then you can shut the hell up because you are NOT entitled to an opinion.

Yes, I'm pissed right now, can you tell? I'm worried about my little sister and there's nothing I can do.

Jtrey17

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 85
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #22 on: January 21, 2018, 07:10:35 AM »
Does anyone know if passports are still being processed during the shut-down? My family has a trip planned for March but we havenít gotten our passports in the mail.

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3091
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2018, 08:50:51 AM »
Does anyone know if passports are still being processed during the shut-down? My family has a trip planned for March but we havenít gotten our passports in the mail.

I believe some, the ones  housed in federal buildings, will be shut down. I read  this a couple of days ago and was paying attention because we need to send in to renew my husbandís passport in February.

Edit: Washington Post seems to confirm this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/what-gets-shut-down/?utm_term=.94635fd22952
« Last Edit: January 21, 2018, 08:53:00 AM by Kris »

Fomerly known as something

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 535
  • Location: Midwest
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #24 on: January 21, 2018, 09:22:28 AM »
Does anyone know if passports are still being processed during the shut-down? My family has a trip planned for March but we havenít gotten our passports in the mail.

Passports are likely a section of the Government that "self funds."  Meaning passport fees pay for passport processing, therefore, they don't shut down.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6785
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2018, 09:29:29 AM »
Passports are likely a section of the Government that "self funds."  Meaning passport fees pay for passport processing, therefore, they don't shut down.

I can't figure out what counts as "self funding" and what doesn't.  It seems totally arbitrary. 

I bring in far more money for my employer than I cost, for example.  That's my job.  But I'm currently furloughed because other parts of my agency are funded by Congress, so whether or not I am self funded or even whether my cost center (location) is self funded is irrelevant.

So passports may still be processed, I don't know, but I'm pretty sure the entire agency responsible for passports (State) is definitely NOT self funding.  I'm going to be pissed if they're still open while I'm not.  Such BS.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2018, 09:46:06 AM by sol »

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7994
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #26 on: January 21, 2018, 09:32:59 AM »
REgarding passports, there's this message on the Travel.State.Gov website

Quote
Operations During a Lapse in Appropriations
Emergency Alert
January 20, 2018
Operations During a Lapse in Appropriations

At this time, scheduled passport and visa services in the United States and at our posts overseas will continue during the lapse in appropriations as the situation permits.  This website will not be regularly updated until full operations resume, with the exception of emergency safety and security information.

so.... still operational but with the possibility of reduced service and speed? 
Basically impossible to tell for sure until a few more days in to this shutdown.  Workers there don't even seem to know for certain, as the regular M-F work week hasn't even started yet.

ender

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4224
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #27 on: January 21, 2018, 09:34:06 AM »
I'm a bit confused why democrats took one of the primary positions Trump campaigned on (immigration) as their "all-in" position with respect to the budget.

Additionally I can see a pretty strong reason why Trump would want the shutdown, given his anti-politician attitude that he also campaigned on it gives him a lot of ammo in the "I was ready to sign the budget but Congress couldn't get their act together" perspective.

It will also be incredibly easy for Trump to spin this to benefit him, particularly if it drags on a while.

bacchi

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2846
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #28 on: January 21, 2018, 09:50:36 AM »
I'm a bit confused why democrats took one of the primary positions Trump campaigned on (immigration) as their "all-in" position with respect to the budget.

Additionally I can see a pretty strong reason why Trump would want the shutdown, given his anti-politician attitude that he also campaigned on it gives him a lot of ammo in the "I was ready to sign the budget but Congress couldn't get their act together" perspective.

It will also be incredibly easy for Trump to spin this to benefit him, particularly if it drags on a while.

Yeah, Trump will get points on this from his base. I don't see any Democrats being swayed.

If it drags on, his political capital depends on how much of his base gets direct benefits from the government.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6785
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #29 on: January 21, 2018, 10:00:54 AM »
Additionally I can see a pretty strong reason why Trump would want the shutdown

Trump has been asking for a shutdown since long before he was president.  The only reason it didn't happen sooner in his term is that democrats have consistently capitulated to his growing list of demands.  They have rolled over three three times on, on the past three CRs, and have nothing to show for it. 

Trump WANTED a shutdown.  He tweeted about it multiple times.  He talked about it on tv.  He pushed for it.  Democrats stalled him through three rounds of negotiations, but eventually the president can force a shutdown by refusing every deal congress brings him, which is exactly what happened in this case.

Now the questions of why Trump wanted a shutdown is maybe another topic worth discussing, but it seems clear to me that he wanted it.  Maybe he thinks there is political advantage in highlighting the internal divisions between republicans in congress.  Maybe it was a desperation play because polls were looking grim for the 2018 election cycle.  Maybe it's another distraction tactic, an attempt to get out ahead of his "banging porn stars" story or the Russia investigation by changing the media narrative.  Could be some combination of all three, I guess.

Frankly, I'm kind of glad democrats stopped indulging the toddler-like demands.  It was only a matter of time before he escalated past the muslim ban, past defunding chips, past ending daca, and told Congress he needed a hundred billion dollars for a wall with a sniper's nest from which Don Jr. could hunt immigrants with tranquilizer darts.  We've had 3.5 months of this fiscal year without an operating budget, and Trump has only made more and more outrageous demands for that entire time in an effort to shutter the government.  It's about time democrats (and some republicans, to be fair) finally told him to get with the program.  Governing requires making hard compromises, and so far he has offered absolutely nothing.  He won't even say what he wants in order to find a deal, he just keeps tacking on new demands that will never pass congress.

But none of this is a surprise.  Trump has been remarkably consistent in delivering the kind of presidency he advertised during the campaign.  Chaotic, disruptive, bigoted, corrupt, and offensive.  Just like he promised!  The only mystery here is why anyone voted for all of that.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2018, 10:06:52 AM by sol »

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6785
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #30 on: January 21, 2018, 10:05:55 AM »
I'm a bit confused why democrats took one of the primary positions Trump campaigned on (immigration) as their "all-in" position

Because daca is an easy thing that both sides of congress want to see fixed?  They're not asking to reform immigration, they're asking him to NOT disassemble an existing policy that prevents roughly a million people who have committed no crime from being deported.  Just like with the muslim ban, and health insurance, and the paris agreement, and everything else that Trump has done, he has created controversy where none previously existed.  He could have just sat on his hands and things would have been fine, but he actively chose to turn over the apple cart.  Everyone agrees daca needs fixing, why is Trump trying to break it?

Your criticism would resonate more with me if democrats has chosen overturning tax reform as their all-in position.  That would have been confrontational.  But daca is a tiny piece that both sides agree on.  It would easily pass congress with support from both sides.  Trump is the only opposition, and he only opposes it because he wants leverage to get democrats to support the border wall.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2018, 11:21:55 AM by sol »

bacchi

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2846
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2018, 11:15:17 AM »
I'm a bit confused why democrats took one of the primary positions Trump campaigned on (immigration) as their "all-in" position

Because daca is an easy thing that both sides of congress want to see fixed?  They're not asking to reform immigration, their asking him to NOT disassemble an existing policy that prevents roughly a million people who have committed no crime from being deported.  Just like with the muslim ban, and health insurance, and the paris agreement, and everything else that Trump has done, he has created controversy where none previously existed.  He could have just sat on his hands and things would have been fine, but he actively chose to turn over the apple cart.  Everyone agrees daca needs fixing, why is Trump trying to break it?

Your criticism would resonate more with me if democrats has chosen overturning tax reform as their all-in position.  That would have been confrontational.  But daca is a tiny piece that both sides agree on.  It would easily pass congress with support from both sides.  Trump is the only opposition, and he only opposes it because he wants leverage to get democrats to support the border wall.

Most of his core supporters don't want DACA -- or Trump thinks they don't. He's appealing to the 40% who still support him.

It's probably a losing bet. The ~40% core isn't enough, even in a deep red state.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7994
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #32 on: January 21, 2018, 11:28:35 AM »
Yeah, Trump will get points on this from his base. I don't see any Democrats being swayed.

If it drags on, his political capital depends on how much of his base gets direct benefits from the government.

Assuming this drags on for at least a few more days, here's how I see it playing out:
Dems will blame GOP, DJT + GOP will blame Dems. 
Most supporters on either side will follow their party's lead and talking points.

Independents (of which there aren't many) will wind up somewhere in the middle, but will be more apt to blame the GOP who control the WH and both houses.

What will be interesting to see is whether this influences who comes out to vote in the fall.  Will DJT supporters be less likely to vote a second time because of this shutdown?  Will Dems be more/less likely to vote? 
A big part of this hinges on who gets what, but even if one side "wins" it could backfire - nothing fires up core supporters like thinking they got steamrolled in some partisan showdown.  On the contrary, "winning" here might breed complicitcy and result in poorer turnout.

If the shutdown ends this week and both sides get a little and lose a little this will all be forgotten by this fall.  If it take 2+ weeks to resolve this will influence turnout.

pecunia

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 448
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #33 on: January 21, 2018, 02:20:32 PM »
Quote
Dems will blame GOP, DJT + GOP will blame Dems.
Most supporters on either side will follow their party's lead and talking points.

There doesn't seem to be all that much difference between Democrats and Republicans these days.  Dems don't want to anger their rich supporters any more than Republicans.

I think it is time for a third party and a pox on both their houses.  If a third party gained traction, that would shake them all up.

partgypsy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2098
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #34 on: January 21, 2018, 08:37:25 PM »
Additionally I can see a pretty strong reason why Trump would want the shutdown

Trump has been asking for a shutdown since long before he was president.  The only reason it didn't happen sooner in his term is that democrats have consistently capitulated to his growing list of demands.  They have rolled over three three times on, on the past three CRs, and have nothing to show for it. 

Trump WANTED a shutdown.  He tweeted about it multiple times.  He talked about it on tv.  He pushed for it.  Democrats stalled him through three rounds of negotiations, but eventually the president can force a shutdown by refusing every deal congress brings him, which is exactly what happened in this case.

Now the questions of why Trump wanted a shutdown is maybe another topic worth discussing, but it seems clear to me that he wanted it.  Maybe he thinks there is political advantage in highlighting the internal divisions between republicans in congress.  Maybe it was a desperation play because polls were looking grim for the 2018 election cycle.  Maybe it's another distraction tactic, an attempt to get out ahead of his "banging porn stars" story or the Russia investigation by changing the media narrative.  Could be some combination of all three, I guess.

Frankly, I'm kind of glad democrats stopped indulging the toddler-like demands.  It was only a matter of time before he escalated past the muslim ban, past defunding chips, past ending daca, and told Congress he needed a hundred billion dollars for a wall with a sniper's nest from which Don Jr. could hunt immigrants with tranquilizer darts.  We've had 3.5 months of this fiscal year without an operating budget, and Trump has only made more and more outrageous demands for that entire time in an effort to shutter the government.  It's about time democrats (and some republicans, to be fair) finally told him to get with the program.  Governing requires making hard compromises, and so far he has offered absolutely nothing.  He won't even say what he wants in order to find a deal, he just keeps tacking on new demands that will never pass congress.

But none of this is a surprise.  Trump has been remarkably consistent in delivering the kind of presidency he advertised during the campaign.  Chaotic, disruptive, bigoted, corrupt, and offensive.  Just like he promised!  The only mystery here is why anyone voted for all of that.

Thank you Sol. The whole thing was freaking completely avoidable. But you can't reason with madmen. At it's core, the government is being held hostage by people who "hate" the government. There is no reason at all why all these people, who have been elected by the populace, can't legislate and pass a budget.

AdrianC

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 901
  • Location: Cincinnati
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #35 on: January 22, 2018, 06:36:13 AM »
Prediction: DACA loses popular support every hour that the shutdown remains in effect.

A half-assed compromise emerges in a couple of days. Trump boasts about his negotiation skills.

This. I think the Dems have screwed up.
From the dem side, none of us want them to compromise on this, if they capitulated, they would have lost support from the left.  So how have they screwed up?  They got nothing for voting yes on this.

I'm a Democrat. I want DACA to go ahead. This is not the way to do it.

This looks bad for Democrats, and it looks bad for the country. We (Democrats) shut down the government over a non-critical issue. We have lost the high ground. All in my opinion, of course.

AdrianC

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 901
  • Location: Cincinnati
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #36 on: January 22, 2018, 06:49:26 AM »
I think the Dems have screwed up.

How do you feel about all of the republicans who also publicly oppose the house's CR bill?  It's not like the democrats are the only one's opposing this plan. 

Lindsey Graham, for example, doesn't support it because he thinks there's a deal to be made and he wants some consequences to get people to the negotiating table instead of just more delay without any action, which is what we get if the House bill passes.

What was there, four Republicans voted against? Haven't looked into it. Probably grandstanding. I'm guessing one of them was Rand Paul. He votes against just about everything of consequence.

Of course, you don't know there'd be more delay without any action. Maybe.

Is this the way to deal with Trump? He's going to milk this for all it's worth, #Schumershutdown, etc.

[Rant]
The optics are very bad for the Democrats. I hate it that they resort to these tactics. I hated it when Cruz pulled his stupid stunt. I thought my team was above this kind of thing. I was wrong and I'm very disappointed. Not that there's an alternative. I'm not going to turn into a Trump supporter, not in this lifetime.
[/Rant]

partgypsy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2098
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #37 on: January 22, 2018, 06:59:07 AM »
Adrian, I disagree. Solving Daca had bipartisan support in congress and senate. It was only Trump and his extremist aide who torpedoed the deal. They made it an issue, not congress.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7994
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #38 on: January 22, 2018, 07:49:15 AM »

What was there, four Republicans voted against? Haven't looked into it. Probably grandstanding. I'm guessing one of them was Rand Paul. He votes against just about everything of consequence.

Six (see above).  Plus Five Dems voted FOR the latest CR.
I can't see this as Dems shutting down the government when GOP defections outnumber the minority-party's support.

Yeah, without the whole DACA gambit this would probably be a cake-walk, but remember it was DJT who threw that grenade a month ago, and then wouldn't stop tweeting about it.  I'm with Sol here - DJT wanted the government to shut down.  He's been talking about it literally for years. Now he can listen as the conservative talking heads gush over the #Schumershutdown and still not realize that isn't representative of the overall electorate.  Again he's playing to his ever shrinking base.

The fix is so straightforward too - extend DACA and toss a few billion for boarder security enhancement.  You'll get enough support on both sides.  But the WH is publicly undermining this solution (see DJT's tweets) and it's the GOP who bring all CR bills through committee and onto the floor.

eliza

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 324
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #39 on: January 22, 2018, 08:07:03 AM »
I think the system as a whole has to take the blame -- the appropriations process obviously isn't working well.

Edited because I read the thread more closely --- which answered my question re: super-majority versus majority.  Both sides deserve blame --- but casting blame doesn't exactly get things moving in a productive direction. 


Ironically, I'm inclined to take the Trump position on government shutdowns: "Problems start from the top, and they have to get solved from the top, and the president’s the leader, and he’s got to get everybody in a room, and he’s got to lead." 
« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 08:16:22 AM by eliza »

partgypsy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2098
« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 08:11:32 AM by partgypsy »

caffeine

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 99
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #41 on: January 22, 2018, 08:14:32 AM »
Politicians will monitor polls.

If the majority feel it's the Democrats, Democrats will vote to pass as is.

If the majority feel it's the Republicans, Republicans will compromise some sort of temporary stay on DACA and some initial funding of the wall.

Democrats I think will cave first.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6785
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #42 on: January 22, 2018, 08:51:42 AM »
Democrats I think will cave first.

Democrats always cave first.  They've already caved on the past three CRs this year, and I don't see any reason why this time will be any different.

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7994
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2018, 08:57:01 AM »
would caving ultimately help them later this year? 
DACA (unknown to most 4 months ago) is now widely supported. Does the GOP really want to go into the midterms having passed an unpopular tax bill and gotten rid of DACA?

Sol - are you working at all during this shutdown?

DarkandStormy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1139
  • Age: 29
  • Location: Midwest, USA
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #44 on: January 22, 2018, 09:36:53 AM »
This shutdown is incredibly stupid.

80+% of the country supports CHIP.  Both sides have publicly addressed support for funding it (a recent CBO report shows it actually SAVES the government money to fund it for 10 years.  https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/16878388/chip-kids-health-insurance-cbo).  The GOP let the funding expire in September and haven't bothered to bring it up for a vote since then....for this very moment.  They are using the ~9 million kids who rely on CHIP as a bargaining chip (pun intended) against the DREAMers.  It's absolutely disgusting.  McConnell has put out a graph of 9 million kids vs. 800,000 DACA recipients and is blaming Democrats for favoring "illegal immigrants."  It's the worst of our politics and shows that the GOP has no soul.

80+% of the country supports DACA and a pathway to citizenship for these recipients.  Many are already working, in college, etc.  Think about it...you're dragged here as a kid, it's the only country you've ever known, and the elected leaders of one party are fighting to prevent you from becoming a citizen.  Again, ALL leaders of both parties have said they'd support a clean DREAM Act.  Trump overturned Obama's EO on it and September and so the DACA kids have sat in limbo for over 4 months now.  Waiting on the Governing Optional Party to actually pass something to help them.

122 DREAMers are being deported every day.

It's so incredibly stupid because the GOP focused their efforts this fall on passing the least popular piece of legislation of all time.  They now can't get their own party together and refuse to put up for a vote two of the most popular pieces of legislation - CHIP and DACA.  They promised a DACA vote to Jeff Flake in exchange for his vote on the tax bill (broken).  They promised Susan Collins they would up two Obamacare market stabilization votes in 2017 in exchange for her vote on the tax bill (broken).

This shutdown is 100% because the GOP leadership has made promises they aren't keeping.  What "good faith" are they talking about?  They say nice things when it's convenient to look good...but they don't follow through.  Republicans don't know how to govern.  Republicans have now had control of the House the last four times the government has shutdown and this marks the first time since the late '70s that one party had control of the White House, Senate, and House while the government shut down.  The Republicans are now engaged in a disgusting spin campaign because they don't know how to run a government.  Vote them all out in 2018.

partgypsy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2098
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #45 on: January 22, 2018, 10:21:17 AM »
That's one of the key issues. Trump said pass budget first, then we will address and solve Daca. But he has made it clear he is ending Daca. What is his beef with Daca? He created a problem where there wasn't one. He's the one holding hostage, 800K kids, for his pet border wall (which the governors of those states don't even want). Democrats gave him more funding for his wall, and he still turned it down!

Looking at this timeline of what he's said about Daca, when Trump promises he will solve Daca After the budget passes, he and his staff have lost credibility. It's like the game where you hold out a biscuit to a dog, and then pull it away before they can take it. After awhile the dog (Democrats) is confused, angry, and not going to play.
I fully expect the Democrats and Republicans can come together with a budget and a common sense Daca plan, and present it to Trump. None of his staff members preemptively refusing it. Draft it, submit it and whatever Trump decides to do he owns it.

https://www.elitedaily.com/p/donald-trump-quotes-about-daca-prove-he-has-no-idea-what-he-wants-7843256

https://www.cato.org/blog/how-daca-will-end-when-daca-permits-will-expire
« Last Edit: January 22, 2018, 10:58:35 AM by partgypsy »

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7994
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #46 on: January 22, 2018, 10:36:21 AM »
Trump already owns it (or should), when he unnecessarily torpedoed Obama's EO on DACA - seemingly for the deep reason that "Obama did it".  No one on either side really wanted uncertainty for DACA, and it maintains high support despite all the negative propaganda.

This is how it goes with the Trump GOP; Collins agreed to vote yes in exchange for getting ACA marketplace stabilization bills on the floor - that never happened.  He dangled cabinet positions in front of Romney, Christie for their support, then yanked those away when it suited him.

DarkandStormy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1139
  • Age: 29
  • Location: Midwest, USA
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #47 on: January 22, 2018, 10:55:30 AM »
Looks like Dems cave and will agree to a CR for three weeks (through Feb. 8th) and 6 years funding of CHIP.

Nothing on immigration or the Dreamers apparently.

partgypsy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2098
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #48 on: January 22, 2018, 10:59:30 AM »
Looks like Dems cave and will agree to a CR for three weeks (through Feb. 8th) and 6 years funding of CHIP.

Nothing on immigration or the Dreamers apparently.

Just another kicking of the can

nereo

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7994
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: How will the shutdown get resolved?
« Reply #49 on: January 22, 2018, 11:00:52 AM »
Looks like Dems cave and will agree to a CR for three weeks (through Feb. 8th) and 6 years funding of CHIP.


Still has to be signed off by DJT.  Curious whether he'll sign off on it as a "win!" or force this to drag on longer to extract yet more concessions.

Not sure how postponing this for another 2.5 weeks will play out for either party, though.