Author Topic: How much will non-vaxxing by GOP reduce the population of voting age republicans  (Read 87177 times)

seattlecyclone

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I don't doubt that the majority of people dying from it are unvaccinated, but I haven't seem any statistics. Anyone know where to find them?

Ask and ye shall receive:

https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/

My county (population ~2 million) has a data dashboard on this topic for local cases. Over the past month, folks who are not fully vaccinated are about 50x more likely to end up in the hospital and/or die as those who are. About 80% of the recent hospitalizations and deaths have not been fully vaccinated, and only about 20% of the eligible population has failed to get their shots.

oldladystache

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I don't doubt that the majority of people dying from it are unvaccinated, but I haven't seem any statistics. Anyone know where to find them?

Ask and ye shall receive:

https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/

My county (population ~2 million) has a data dashboard on this topic for local cases. Over the past month, folks who are not fully vaccinated are about 50x more likely to end up in the hospital and/or die as those who are. About 80% of the recent hospitalizations and deaths have not been fully vaccinated, and only about 20% of the eligible population has failed to get their shots.

thank you.

sui generis

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?

Abe

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?

Looking over at r/HermanCainAwards there’s not a lot of thinking involved. Mostly just copying memes that may be completely internally illogical.

GodlessCommie

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"When Randal Thom, a 60-year-old ex-Marine with a long gray mustache, fell severely ill with a high fever and debilitating congestion, he refused to go to the hospital. He was a heavy smoker who was significantly overweight and knew he faced an increased risk of severe effects from covid-19. Still, he refused to take a coronavirus test and potentially increase the caseload on Trump’s watch: “I’m not going to add to the numbers,” he told me. Thom survived the scare, but died months later in a car accident while returning home to Minnesota from a Trump boat parade in Florida."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/trump-rallies-front-row-joes/2021/07/15/cd842ee6-e589-11eb-8aa5-5662858b696e_story.html

SunnyDays

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^^^^^^

Proof that belief in Trump is fatal.

LennStar

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^^^^^^

Proof that belief in Trump is fatal.
Nah, just a sudden sign of God's love, who wanted this patriot close by.

mm1970

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It is really hard to fix 50 years of eating unhealthy food that’s enveloped your organs in several inches of pro-inflammatory fat and infiltrated the liver to the point it can’t filter toxins properly.  Then the pancreas starts to fail and the glucose coats various cells and makes them malfunction. There’s also the agribusinesses and junk food industries promoting that garbage. Not even the vaunted UK NHS can fix that.
...
We’re busting our asses to take care of people who just don’t care about their health. Yeah it’s hard to get vegetable and fruits in some areas, etc but it’s not because we haven’t developed the technology to transport them cheaply, it’s just that demand is not strong in many areas.

I am not a medical professional but I came to similar conclusions on my own.

With that said, at no point in time have any of my doctors told me this. It was all me "doing my own research."

Also, look at what kids are fed in school. Look at the vending machines and the Taco Bells. The industrial complex created this mess for profit. If I were a conspiracy theorist I would say that they created demand for our expensive healthcare system.
Meh, you know the food our kids get in schools (here) - actually it's very healthy.  But that's California for you.  Still, a number of children are overweight or obese.  So, it's not completely food, but probably mostly food.

I could go on and on, and I do in other threads, but I'll leave it at this: it's hard.  There are a lot of factors, and it's hard.  (You can easily gain 10 lbs in a month of stress eating too much chocolate, but that shit's SUPER HARD to take back off.  Ask me how I know!!)

--------
Interesting blurb in the NY Times today about how Breitbart has told their people "the libs are trying to get you to die by telling you to get vaccinated, because they know you'll refuse because you want to OWN THE LIBS".   And....??? It boggles the mind.

PDXTabs

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Meh, you know the food our kids get in schools (here) - actually it's very healthy.  But that's California for you.  Still, a number of children are overweight or obese.  So, it's not completely food, but probably mostly food.

I'm mostly familiar with my own experience where I was eating pizza and chocolate wafers in school. But free school lunch kept me from starving to death so at least in high school I was probably underweight. The chocolate wafers were chosen by me from the vending machine in a cost/calorie trade-off to get enough calories.

I'm not necessarily saying that it is mostly food. But I'll happily blame the combination of the food with lack of exercise. Walking has continued to go down in the USA for longer than I have been alive according to all of the data I've ever seen on it. Kids in walk-able neighborhoods are less overweight last I checked.

Interesting blurb in the NY Times today about how Breitbart has told their people "the libs are trying to get you to die by telling you to get vaccinated, because they know you'll refuse because you want to OWN THE LIBS".   And....??? It boggles the mind.

Right?!?! I think this is part of a larger problem which I call "anglophone collapse disorder" but the USA is certainly the furthest along.

sailinlight

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

sui generis

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

It was an offhand comment, meant to bemoan the crazy things people believe in (like vaccines are ineffective, the earth is flat, if you eat an appleseed, a tree with grow in your belly).  That's pretty much it.  Probably I believe something as crazy as any one of those things, just because I'm human, too.  But honestly, if I do I wish someone would point it out to me because I'm embarrassed in advance that I believe it.

But I will say, first of all, that I don't *believe* the vaccines are effective. I'm just objecting to that language because it implies my belief is an important aspect here.  I am *aware* that the vaccines are effective. 

Secondly, I care that other people get it because it matters to public health.  Because that's how vaccines work, they are not just for individual protection.  I assume you are aware of that? [<--I think that may sound sarcastic, but it's not meant to be.  I may be assuming too much!]  I am not the person to educate you if not, but perhaps someone else on this thread will be happy to, or of course Google is your friend.  But the answer to your question is, I care what is going on to more than just me personally.

neo von retorch

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

My take on this is...

Just a couple years ago, if you asked me how many anti-vax believers there were, or how many flat-earthers there were, I'd have said, "I don't know, a few thousand in the whole world?!" Probably already a gross underestimation.

In 2016, when Trump won the election, I thought... well, a lot of people have come to believe that career politicians are the problem, and that Trump put forth a message of being "of the people" and "against the increasingly undesirable norm of politicians in power." But in 2020, I thought - well they probably all saw how Trump was no different in the pursuit of power... and then something like 73 million people voted for him, and I had to take a step back. Wow. How is it possible that 73 million people (out of about 255 million eligible voters) think that Trump is the better choice for President? Guess I've been sipping Liberal Kool-Aid too eagerly.

When I looked at the declining rate of COVID-19 vaccinations happening in the United States as early as May, I said... "Holy shit. That's way more people being anti-vax than I thought." It's possible that... you can vote for Trump and be anti-COVID vaccine, but still not be a flat-earther or in general, anti-vax. But... just from my perspective/point of view it seems like if you're OK with the information you have to accept to be pro-Trump or anti-COVID vaccine... you might as well be falling for the same insane trains of thought that anti-vax and flat-earthers do. No amount of past or current information that has consensus among the scientific community can sway your beliefs about the shape of the Earth, the safety of vaccines, or the power-hungry, selfish nature of a lifelong gray-area business man turned demagogue.

sailinlight

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

My take on this is...

Just a couple years ago, if you asked me how many anti-vax believers there were, or how many flat-earthers there were, I'd have said, "I don't know, a few thousand in the whole world?!" Probably already a gross underestimation.

In 2016, when Trump won the election, I thought... well, a lot of people have come to believe that career politicians are the problem, and that Trump put forth a message of being "of the people" and "against the increasingly undesirable norm of politicians in power." But in 2020, I thought - well they probably all saw how Trump was no different in the pursuit of power... and then something like 73 million people voted for him, and I had to take a step back. Wow. How is it possible that 73 million people (out of about 255 million eligible voters) think that Trump is the better choice for President? Guess I've been sipping Liberal Kool-Aid too eagerly.

When I looked at the declining rate of COVID-19 vaccinations happening in the United States as early as May, I said... "Holy shit. That's way more people being anti-vax than I thought." It's possible that... you can vote for Trump and be anti-COVID vaccine, but still not be a flat-earther or in general, anti-vax. But... just from my perspective/point of view it seems like if you're OK with the information you have to accept to be pro-Trump or anti-COVID vaccine... you might as well be falling for the same insane trains of thought that anti-vax and flat-earthers do. No amount of past or current information that has consensus among the scientific community can sway your beliefs about the shape of the Earth, the safety of vaccines, or the power-hungry, selfish nature of a lifelong gray-area business man turned demagogue.
Thanks for the engagement, it's so hard to find people who are willing to engage rationally on the internet!
I think there is not a big overlap between people who would have been labeled "anti-vax" two years ago and today. To me and much of my social circle, there doesn't seem to be a big compelling reason to get a vaccine for a disease that a) seems to present a non-zero risk to one's health, b) at least one study has shown that natural immunity is stronger and longer lasting than the vaccine immunity and c) doesn't seem to really prevent you from spreading the disease to others if you get it, and d) the disease doesn't pose much of a health risk for people in my families' risk group (we had covid in July and survived)

I think almost the entirety of the cause of vaccine hesitancy is that it is impossible for a layperson to find any trustworthy source information regarding the efficacy and safety of the vaccine. I've gotten all the vaccines that are recommended, including a tetanus shot a few weeks ago, and have vaccinated my children, but this one just seems like there is such a hysteria around it, and lack of long-term studies that it seems like a bad idea at this time. If I were 67 and overweight, I'd get it in a second.

MudPuppy

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@sailinlight hey there! Several of the points you’ve cited just aren’t quite hitting the nail on the head. I hear them a lot and I try to present facts when the opportunity arises.

A) you are at risk. Everyone is at risk. While people with comorbidities are at greater risk of complications (this is true of literally everything. If you’re already sick, you are at greater risk in general, with any health event) we have no crystal balls telling us who exactly is going to get their ass handed to them by this virus. I wish I could say the number of people who were fit, healthy, and had nothing wrong with them before Covid that I ended up zipping into a body bag was zero but it isn’t. B) and many others have shown that it’s less. Not all prior positives develop any lasting antibodies at all! The consensus among the experts is that prior infection is less reliable than vaccines. C) you are both less likely to contract the virus to begin with and if you do drawn the short straw and have a breakthrough case, you are contagious for a shorter amount of time, which limits how many you can infect. D) there have been so many, many second infections. Please don’t build your house on that sand.

PDXTabs

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I met some liberal anti-vaxxers in real life again. Except that they were vaccinated, because they're smart. But they told me that if they hadn't gotten vaccinated before the mandates they probably wouldn't get vaccinated. Just because they hate the mandates that much. Old school liberals, I like it.

Abe

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Have fun developing natural immunity if you haven’t had covid yet. I hope you don’t have any at-risk individuals in your life that you care about.

If you already had covid and don’t want to get vaccinated, not worth arguing about it from a societal benefit standpoint.

The vast majority of immunologists and infectious diseases experts agree that vaccination is safe and effective. There is good data to back it, and we don’t get to cherry-pick whatever study agrees with our opinion.

I just want to make it clear to the others reading that vaccination does reduce the risk of both infection and transmission of covid-19, regardless of prior infection status (unless you just recovered from covid and received the antibody infusion for treatment). The relative benefit is less for people who had covid in the last few months, but the balance of risks and benefits still weighs towards a benefit given the extremely rare serious effects of vaccination.

Who should not get vaccinated?
- People with severe allergies to any components of a given vaccine should get one of the others.
- people with a history of cerebral thromboembolism (blood clots in the brain or surrounding veins) should get an mRNA-based (moderna, Pfizer) and not an adenovirus-based (J&J, Oxford) vaccine.
- people undergoing transplant (either stem cell or organ) should be vaccinated prior to transplantation. In the case of stem cell transplant, a booster (or whole new course, ) will be needed after the transplant has engrafted.
That’s it. Those are the risks/ineffective groups.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2021, 08:02:01 PM by Abe »

deborah

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Where I live, the average age for cases that have been hospitalized is 25 years old. Delta isn't a disease of the old. Anyone can get it. Badly.

bacchi

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Where I live, the average age for cases that have been hospitalized is 25 years old. Delta isn't a disease of the old. Anyone can get it. Badly.

The hospitalization age is a lot lower in Florida, too, compared to previous surges. Almost 1/3 are below the age of 49.

kei te pai

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@sailinlight, just wondering, do you consider you have any responsibilities toward your community? I get from your comments that you dont think your immediate family will suffer from Covid infection directly. Putting that aside for a moment, I am curious to hear what responsibility or not you feel toward those that you dont know, but may become infected as a consequence of your family or friends transmitting the virus.
This is a genuine question, I want to understand your thinking.

sailinlight

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@sailinlight, just wondering, do you consider you have any responsibilities toward your community? I get from your comments that you dont think your immediate family will suffer from Covid infection directly. Putting that aside for a moment, I am curious to hear what responsibility or not you feel toward those that you dont know, but may become infected as a consequence of your family or friends transmitting the virus.
This is a genuine question, I want to understand your thinking.
So, since my family has already tested positive we do not anticipate getting the disease again. Furthermore, the reports I have read indicate that you still expel virus nearly as much even if you are vaccinated and somehow do get infected.

partgypsy

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@sailinlight, just wondering, do you consider you have any responsibilities toward your community? I get from your comments that you dont think your immediate family will suffer from Covid infection directly. Putting that aside for a moment, I am curious to hear what responsibility or not you feel toward those that you dont know, but may become infected as a consequence of your family or friends transmitting the virus.
This is a genuine question, I want to understand your thinking.
So, since my family has already tested positive we do not anticipate getting the disease again. Furthermore, the reports I have read indicate that you still expel virus nearly as much even if you are vaccinated and somehow do get infected.

Sail, mudpuppy already addressed the misconceptions you listed, but you can absolutely get the disease again even if you have had it. And getting the disease does not provide a as reliable immune response as the vaccine does. So yes you and your family absolutely are at risk at getting it again as well as transmitting it to others. I've heard anecdotally (I work in a health care facility) that a number of currently hospitalized, it is their 2nd, 3rd infection that put them in the hospital. Incorrectly assuming that their prior infection made them immune to subsequent infection or serious consequences.

https://www.nih.gov/how-immunity-generated-covid-19-vaccines-differs-infection

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-09-covid-immune.html
« Last Edit: September 28, 2021, 07:04:47 AM by partgypsy »

sailinlight

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@sailinlight, just wondering, do you consider you have any responsibilities toward your community? I get from your comments that you dont think your immediate family will suffer from Covid infection directly. Putting that aside for a moment, I am curious to hear what responsibility or not you feel toward those that you dont know, but may become infected as a consequence of your family or friends transmitting the virus.
This is a genuine question, I want to understand your thinking.
So, since my family has already tested positive we do not anticipate getting the disease again. Furthermore, the reports I have read indicate that you still expel virus nearly as much even if you are vaccinated and somehow do get infected.

Sail, mudpuppy already addressed the misconceptions you listed, but you can absolutely get the disease again even if you have had it. And getting the disease does not provide a as reliable immune response as the vaccine does. So yes you and your family absolutely are at risk at getting it again as well as transmitting it to others. I've heard anecdotally (I work in a health care facility) that a number of currently hospitalized, it is their 2nd, 3rd infection that put them in the hospital. Incorrectly assuming that their prior infection made them immune to subsequent infection or serious consequences.

https://www.nih.gov/how-immunity-generated-covid-19-vaccines-differs-infection
Thanks, I will read the study

sui generis

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Here's another reason I care whether other people get the vaccine. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1442806675325476867.html

They aren't just killing themselves off. They are taking resources they shouldn't need if they had the smallest shred of decency as well as self interest, and other people are suffering because the hospitals are tapped out. The story above could have been my mother, but I feel extremely lucky that she broke her hip very early in COVID and got out of the hospital before they filled up. We have a vaccine now. The hospitals shouldn't be full. Medical professionals shouldn't be pushed to these limits. There should be resources to care properly for people that have an accident.

But there aren't. And people say it's none of my business. That vaccination is an individual decision. I wish these Republicans were only killing themselves, but they get to take down others with them because no one will hold them accountable or enforce any consequences (yes, I'm talking about rationing care to the unvaccinated).

Paper Chaser

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

My take on this is...

Just a couple years ago, if you asked me how many anti-vax believers there were, or how many flat-earthers there were, I'd have said, "I don't know, a few thousand in the whole world?!" Probably already a gross underestimation.

In 2016, when Trump won the election, I thought... well, a lot of people have come to believe that career politicians are the problem, and that Trump put forth a message of being "of the people" and "against the increasingly undesirable norm of politicians in power." But in 2020, I thought - well they probably all saw how Trump was no different in the pursuit of power... and then something like 73 million people voted for him, and I had to take a step back. Wow. How is it possible that 73 million people (out of about 255 million eligible voters) think that Trump is the better choice for President? Guess I've been sipping Liberal Kool-Aid too eagerly.

When I looked at the declining rate of COVID-19 vaccinations happening in the United States as early as May, I said... "Holy shit. That's way more people being anti-vax than I thought." It's possible that... you can vote for Trump and be anti-COVID vaccine, but still not be a flat-earther or in general, anti-vax. But... just from my perspective/point of view it seems like if you're OK with the information you have to accept to be pro-Trump or anti-COVID vaccine... you might as well be falling for the same insane trains of thought that anti-vax and flat-earthers do. No amount of past or current information that has consensus among the scientific community can sway your beliefs about the shape of the Earth, the safety of vaccines, or the power-hungry, selfish nature of a lifelong gray-area business man turned demagogue.

I think the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers is relatively small. I'm talking people that don't believe in any vaccines.
At this point, I think there are a lot of parallels between the COVID vaccine and the annual influenza vaccines, and that's how most of the people that I know view this. So comparing the take rate of annual flu vaccines to the take rate of COVID is probably not too dissimilar. And the number of people that don't really see the point in getting the flu shot most years is way larger than the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers.

GuitarStv

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

My take on this is...

Just a couple years ago, if you asked me how many anti-vax believers there were, or how many flat-earthers there were, I'd have said, "I don't know, a few thousand in the whole world?!" Probably already a gross underestimation.

In 2016, when Trump won the election, I thought... well, a lot of people have come to believe that career politicians are the problem, and that Trump put forth a message of being "of the people" and "against the increasingly undesirable norm of politicians in power." But in 2020, I thought - well they probably all saw how Trump was no different in the pursuit of power... and then something like 73 million people voted for him, and I had to take a step back. Wow. How is it possible that 73 million people (out of about 255 million eligible voters) think that Trump is the better choice for President? Guess I've been sipping Liberal Kool-Aid too eagerly.

When I looked at the declining rate of COVID-19 vaccinations happening in the United States as early as May, I said... "Holy shit. That's way more people being anti-vax than I thought." It's possible that... you can vote for Trump and be anti-COVID vaccine, but still not be a flat-earther or in general, anti-vax. But... just from my perspective/point of view it seems like if you're OK with the information you have to accept to be pro-Trump or anti-COVID vaccine... you might as well be falling for the same insane trains of thought that anti-vax and flat-earthers do. No amount of past or current information that has consensus among the scientific community can sway your beliefs about the shape of the Earth, the safety of vaccines, or the power-hungry, selfish nature of a lifelong gray-area business man turned demagogue.

I think the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers is relatively small. I'm talking people that don't believe in any vaccines.
At this point, I think there are a lot of parallels between the COVID vaccine and the annual influenza vaccines, and that's how most of the people that I know view this. So comparing the take rate of annual flu vaccines to the take rate of COVID is probably not too dissimilar. And the number of people that don't really see the point in getting the flu shot most years is way larger than the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers.

I don't understand how someone can see parallels between the flu vaccine with the covid vaccine.  The flu and covid are very different diseases, the risk/reward for the vaccines/disease is wildly different.

Sandi_k

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Thanks for the citations. My brother and family continue to insist that an early infection protects them forever from getting CV-19.

@sailinlight, just wondering, do you consider you have any responsibilities toward your community? I get from your comments that you dont think your immediate family will suffer from Covid infection directly. Putting that aside for a moment, I am curious to hear what responsibility or not you feel toward those that you dont know, but may become infected as a consequence of your family or friends transmitting the virus.
This is a genuine question, I want to understand your thinking.
So, since my family has already tested positive we do not anticipate getting the disease again. Furthermore, the reports I have read indicate that you still expel virus nearly as much even if you are vaccinated and somehow do get infected.

Sail, mudpuppy already addressed the misconceptions you listed, but you can absolutely get the disease again even if you have had it. And getting the disease does not provide a as reliable immune response as the vaccine does. So yes you and your family absolutely are at risk at getting it again as well as transmitting it to others. I've heard anecdotally (I work in a health care facility) that a number of currently hospitalized, it is their 2nd, 3rd infection that put them in the hospital. Incorrectly assuming that their prior infection made them immune to subsequent infection or serious consequences.

https://www.nih.gov/how-immunity-generated-covid-19-vaccines-differs-infection

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-09-covid-immune.html

FIPurpose

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Data from Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimates-covid-hospitalization-risk.aspx

92% of Democrats are vaccinated versus 56% of Republicans

Other interesting tidbits is that Democrats are relatively worse at estimating hospitalization rates for the unvaccinated while the GOP are relatively worse at estimating the hospitalization rate for the vaccinated. (real answer for both is <1%)

Democrats' average response says that they believe the vaccine to be about 88% effective whereas GOP believe it closer to 50% effective (real answer is 95-99%)

To me, this says that almost all deaths happening now are likely GOP, ~80k deaths since July 1 concentrated in a minority of states.

If 40% of the GOP continue to refuse vaccines and assuming a 2% death rate, then that looks like this would top out at losing .8% of GOP voters. Though potentially more considering this demographic already skews old. The GOP should be very afraid of potentially losing another 0.2-0.5% of the vote for 2022. The GOP won 3 seats by a smaller margin than that.

The way this is shaping up, this very well could be the determining factor in a half dozen races nation wide. Though it won't be possible to do a direct comparison due to redistricting.

SomedayStache

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I can't figure out how to properly attach an image to a forum post, but there's some very interesting graphs for those of you who can access this NY Times link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/briefing/covid-red-states-vaccinations.html


bacchi

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If 40% of the GOP continue to refuse vaccines and assuming a 2% death rate, then that looks like this would top out at losing .8% of GOP voters. Though potentially more considering this demographic already skews old. The GOP should be very afraid of potentially losing another 0.2-0.5% of the vote for 2022. The GOP won 3 seats by a smaller margin than that.

The way this is shaping up, this very well could be the determining factor in a half dozen races nation wide. Though it won't be possible to do a direct comparison due to redistricting.

It might tip DeSantis' chances in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial race. He won by a little less than .4% in 2018.

GodlessCommie

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The GOP should be very afraid of potentially losing another 0.2-0.5% of the vote for 2022. The GOP won 3 seats by a smaller margin than that.

After redistricting, there may be no seats that are that competitive. They will definitely not be the same.

Also, GOP voters skew older, but the oldest cohort is highly vaccinated.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2021, 11:55:35 AM by GodlessCommie »

HPstache

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I can't figure out how to properly attach an image to a forum post, but there's some very interesting graphs for those of you who can access this NY Times link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/briefing/covid-red-states-vaccinations.html

Again, how did it look during the first year of covid before vaccine, when the majority of deaths occured?  Covid cases, and therefore deaths, were extremely concentrated in highly populated areas of the US which are generally BLUE took the brunt of the deaths.  I still think this thread is silly, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say there is not going to be some sort of major political shift due to deaths.

GodlessCommie

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Again, how did it look during the first year of covid before vaccine, when the majority of deaths occured?  Covid cases, and therefore deaths, were extremely concentrated in highly populated areas of the US which are generally BLUE took the brunt of the deaths.  I still think this thread is silly, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say there is not going to be some sort of major political shift due to deaths.

Early deaths were absolutely concentrated in blue areas, esp. NY and NJ. Those deaths are already "captured" in 2020 results. If we use 2020 as a baseline, they don't alter anything (although they, tragically, affected 2020).

PeteD01

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@sailinlight, just wondering, do you consider you have any responsibilities toward your community? I get from your comments that you dont think your immediate family will suffer from Covid infection directly. Putting that aside for a moment, I am curious to hear what responsibility or not you feel toward those that you dont know, but may become infected as a consequence of your family or friends transmitting the virus.
This is a genuine question, I want to understand your thinking.
So, since my family has already tested positive we do not anticipate getting the disease again. Furthermore, the reports I have read indicate that you still expel virus nearly as much even if you are vaccinated and somehow do get infected.

Eventually everybody will have gone through an infection and those who also received a vaccine will have superior protection from disease.
The relatively robust but potentially short lived immunity from infection alone will dampen the peaks (flatten the curve) of waves of new cases and will bring relief to the healthcare system.
I can easily imagine that populations with low vaccination rates will be held in a slow but still deadly squeeze after the transition to the endemic state.
The result would be that life expectancy would again fall in these populations which are already affected by rampant drug use and suicides among other problems.
Surviving in an immunocompromised state in while living in low vaccination populations would also be a challenge; and that would be compounded by the difficulty in attracting healthcare workers to take care of such populations. So maybe we will see a decrease in solid organ transplant and other treatments in red areas.
And these are just some thoughts about what could happen in the foreseeable future.
I think that the events during this pandemic will have repercussions far into the future and will end up negatively impacting the health and well-being of red state populations for many years. And then, there will be no sense of urgency in helping those who do not want to be helped and who will have to live with a serious endemic disease. Maybe once a generation of post-pandemic children has grown up the situation may resolve itself.
In any case, I can come up with a good number of completely preventable bad long term scenarios for unvaccinated populations.

sixwings

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

My take on this is...

Just a couple years ago, if you asked me how many anti-vax believers there were, or how many flat-earthers there were, I'd have said, "I don't know, a few thousand in the whole world?!" Probably already a gross underestimation.

In 2016, when Trump won the election, I thought... well, a lot of people have come to believe that career politicians are the problem, and that Trump put forth a message of being "of the people" and "against the increasingly undesirable norm of politicians in power." But in 2020, I thought - well they probably all saw how Trump was no different in the pursuit of power... and then something like 73 million people voted for him, and I had to take a step back. Wow. How is it possible that 73 million people (out of about 255 million eligible voters) think that Trump is the better choice for President? Guess I've been sipping Liberal Kool-Aid too eagerly.

When I looked at the declining rate of COVID-19 vaccinations happening in the United States as early as May, I said... "Holy shit. That's way more people being anti-vax than I thought." It's possible that... you can vote for Trump and be anti-COVID vaccine, but still not be a flat-earther or in general, anti-vax. But... just from my perspective/point of view it seems like if you're OK with the information you have to accept to be pro-Trump or anti-COVID vaccine... you might as well be falling for the same insane trains of thought that anti-vax and flat-earthers do. No amount of past or current information that has consensus among the scientific community can sway your beliefs about the shape of the Earth, the safety of vaccines, or the power-hungry, selfish nature of a lifelong gray-area business man turned demagogue.

I think the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers is relatively small. I'm talking people that don't believe in any vaccines.
At this point, I think there are a lot of parallels between the COVID vaccine and the annual influenza vaccines, and that's how most of the people that I know view this. So comparing the take rate of annual flu vaccines to the take rate of COVID is probably not too dissimilar. And the number of people that don't really see the point in getting the flu shot most years is way larger than the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers.

I don't understand how someone can see parallels between the flu vaccine with the covid vaccine.  The flu and covid are very different diseases, the risk/reward for the vaccines/disease is wildly different.

It's almost like there was a president who was telling them it was just the flu...

GodlessCommie

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Hispanic adults are now most vaccinated, Black and White almost on par.

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-september-2021/

A less depressing effect of Covid on politics: as vaccine mandates are starting to get enforced, and unvaccinated people fired, we can expect self-sorting to accelerate. Some blue state nurses may move to where they can get a job w/o a vaccine. Red state nurses may be tempted to move to a state with vaccine mandates. And it probably extends beyond the medical profession.

teen persuasion

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@sailinlight, just wondering, do you consider you have any responsibilities toward your community? I get from your comments that you dont think your immediate family will suffer from Covid infection directly. Putting that aside for a moment, I am curious to hear what responsibility or not you feel toward those that you dont know, but may become infected as a consequence of your family or friends transmitting the virus.
This is a genuine question, I want to understand your thinking.
So, since my family has already tested positive we do not anticipate getting the disease again. Furthermore, the reports I have read indicate that you still expel virus nearly as much even if you are vaccinated and somehow do get infected.
You can definitely get it more than once.  I know people who got it more than once, and that was before vaccines were available and before the much more contagious Delta hit our area.  They got vaccinated as soon as they could - didn't want to risk a third time, it was not fun.

kei te pai

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@sailinlight could you answer my question about how you see your responsibility to the wider community?

Paper Chaser

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

My take on this is...

Just a couple years ago, if you asked me how many anti-vax believers there were, or how many flat-earthers there were, I'd have said, "I don't know, a few thousand in the whole world?!" Probably already a gross underestimation.

In 2016, when Trump won the election, I thought... well, a lot of people have come to believe that career politicians are the problem, and that Trump put forth a message of being "of the people" and "against the increasingly undesirable norm of politicians in power." But in 2020, I thought - well they probably all saw how Trump was no different in the pursuit of power... and then something like 73 million people voted for him, and I had to take a step back. Wow. How is it possible that 73 million people (out of about 255 million eligible voters) think that Trump is the better choice for President? Guess I've been sipping Liberal Kool-Aid too eagerly.

When I looked at the declining rate of COVID-19 vaccinations happening in the United States as early as May, I said... "Holy shit. That's way more people being anti-vax than I thought." It's possible that... you can vote for Trump and be anti-COVID vaccine, but still not be a flat-earther or in general, anti-vax. But... just from my perspective/point of view it seems like if you're OK with the information you have to accept to be pro-Trump or anti-COVID vaccine... you might as well be falling for the same insane trains of thought that anti-vax and flat-earthers do. No amount of past or current information that has consensus among the scientific community can sway your beliefs about the shape of the Earth, the safety of vaccines, or the power-hungry, selfish nature of a lifelong gray-area business man turned demagogue.

I think the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers is relatively small. I'm talking people that don't believe in any vaccines.
At this point, I think there are a lot of parallels between the COVID vaccine and the annual influenza vaccines, and that's how most of the people that I know view this. So comparing the take rate of annual flu vaccines to the take rate of COVID is probably not too dissimilar. And the number of people that don't really see the point in getting the flu shot most years is way larger than the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers.

I don't understand how someone can see parallels between the flu vaccine with the covid vaccine.  The flu and covid are very different diseases, the risk/reward for the vaccines/disease is wildly different.

You don't see any similarities? Has our thinking gotten to be so binary on this subject that we cannot acknowledge any similarities between two different things?

Some similarities that I see:
Neither the flu vaccine or covid vaccine offers permanent immunity
Vaccines reduce the severity of symptoms for both viruses
We're very likely to need frequent boosters for either one, tailored to the given flavor of virus that's expected that season

The cost/benefit calculus changes every year with the flu vaccine depending on how virulent the virus is expected to be, and how effective the vaccine is against that particular strain. (Hopefully mRNA vaccine tech will make flu vaccines more effective and widely adopted in the future.) In recent years it's been pretty unusual to have 50% of the US population get the flu shot in a given year (that number includes children, who are often vaccinated at higher rates than young adults). 15k annual flu deaths would be low. 60k would be high. Yeah, Covid is a more serious threat. But we're also seeing more people vaccinated against it than we typically do for the flu too, and children aren't yet eligible to be vaccinated.

I guess my larger point is that there are a lot of people that would totally get a vaccine that granted permanent immunity, that meant we could actually eradicate this virus form the planet. The number of truly anti-vaxx people that wouldn't take that vaccine is likely pretty small. But there's probably a pretty significant part of the population that's at least a little hesitant to take any vaccine that is more or less just insurance against the worst outcomes and is only good for a relatively short time frame. That's where I see similarities to people's choices between the covid vaccine and the flu vaccine.

GuitarStv

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

My take on this is...

Just a couple years ago, if you asked me how many anti-vax believers there were, or how many flat-earthers there were, I'd have said, "I don't know, a few thousand in the whole world?!" Probably already a gross underestimation.

In 2016, when Trump won the election, I thought... well, a lot of people have come to believe that career politicians are the problem, and that Trump put forth a message of being "of the people" and "against the increasingly undesirable norm of politicians in power." But in 2020, I thought - well they probably all saw how Trump was no different in the pursuit of power... and then something like 73 million people voted for him, and I had to take a step back. Wow. How is it possible that 73 million people (out of about 255 million eligible voters) think that Trump is the better choice for President? Guess I've been sipping Liberal Kool-Aid too eagerly.

When I looked at the declining rate of COVID-19 vaccinations happening in the United States as early as May, I said... "Holy shit. That's way more people being anti-vax than I thought." It's possible that... you can vote for Trump and be anti-COVID vaccine, but still not be a flat-earther or in general, anti-vax. But... just from my perspective/point of view it seems like if you're OK with the information you have to accept to be pro-Trump or anti-COVID vaccine... you might as well be falling for the same insane trains of thought that anti-vax and flat-earthers do. No amount of past or current information that has consensus among the scientific community can sway your beliefs about the shape of the Earth, the safety of vaccines, or the power-hungry, selfish nature of a lifelong gray-area business man turned demagogue.

I think the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers is relatively small. I'm talking people that don't believe in any vaccines.
At this point, I think there are a lot of parallels between the COVID vaccine and the annual influenza vaccines, and that's how most of the people that I know view this. So comparing the take rate of annual flu vaccines to the take rate of COVID is probably not too dissimilar. And the number of people that don't really see the point in getting the flu shot most years is way larger than the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers.

I don't understand how someone can see parallels between the flu vaccine with the covid vaccine.  The flu and covid are very different diseases, the risk/reward for the vaccines/disease is wildly different.

You don't see any similarities? Has our thinking gotten to be so binary on this subject that we cannot acknowledge any similarities between two different things?

Some similarities that I see:
Neither the flu vaccine or covid vaccine offers permanent immunity
Vaccines reduce the severity of symptoms for both viruses
We're very likely to need frequent boosters for either one, tailored to the given flavor of virus that's expected that season

The cost/benefit calculus changes every year with the flu vaccine depending on how virulent the virus is expected to be, and how effective the vaccine is against that particular strain. (Hopefully mRNA vaccine tech will make flu vaccines more effective and widely adopted in the future.) In recent years it's been pretty unusual to have 50% of the US population get the flu shot in a given year (that number includes children, who are often vaccinated at higher rates than young adults). 15k annual flu deaths would be low. 60k would be high. Yeah, Covid is a more serious threat. But we're also seeing more people vaccinated against it than we typically do for the flu too, and children aren't yet eligible to be vaccinated.

I guess my larger point is that there are a lot of people that would totally get a vaccine that granted permanent immunity, that meant we could actually eradicate this virus form the planet. The number of truly anti-vaxx people that wouldn't take that vaccine is likely pretty small. But there's probably a pretty significant part of the population that's at least a little hesitant to take any vaccine that is more or less just insurance against the worst outcomes and is only good for a relatively short time frame. That's where I see similarities to people's choices between the covid vaccine and the flu vaccine.

I don't see any similarities worth taking note of.  The virulence and deadliness of covid is significantly higher than that of the flu.  The effectiveness of the covid vaccine is significantly higher than that of typical flu shots.  The cost/benefit of being vaccinated against covid is pretty overwhelmingly on the 'get vaccinated' side.  That's not the case with the flu shot.

bacchi

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Some acquaintance on facebook posted a meme today that said something like, "this is the first time that a medicine's ineffectiveness is being blamed on those who haven't taken it"....and I just can't believe there are people out there that think the vaccines are ineffective BUT ALSO that the Flat Earth theory isn't more popular than it is.  I mean, maybe it is more popular than I know?  If people don't believe the vaccine works at this point, they must be believing things like the earth is flat and that if you eat apple seeds you'll grow and apple tree in your belly and....I don't even know what else these people are probably believing?
Could you explain this? I'm not sure what flat earth has to do with anything, but if you truly believe the vaccine is so effective, why do you care if other people get it, as I assume you have had it?

My take on this is...

Just a couple years ago, if you asked me how many anti-vax believers there were, or how many flat-earthers there were, I'd have said, "I don't know, a few thousand in the whole world?!" Probably already a gross underestimation.

In 2016, when Trump won the election, I thought... well, a lot of people have come to believe that career politicians are the problem, and that Trump put forth a message of being "of the people" and "against the increasingly undesirable norm of politicians in power." But in 2020, I thought - well they probably all saw how Trump was no different in the pursuit of power... and then something like 73 million people voted for him, and I had to take a step back. Wow. How is it possible that 73 million people (out of about 255 million eligible voters) think that Trump is the better choice for President? Guess I've been sipping Liberal Kool-Aid too eagerly.

When I looked at the declining rate of COVID-19 vaccinations happening in the United States as early as May, I said... "Holy shit. That's way more people being anti-vax than I thought." It's possible that... you can vote for Trump and be anti-COVID vaccine, but still not be a flat-earther or in general, anti-vax. But... just from my perspective/point of view it seems like if you're OK with the information you have to accept to be pro-Trump or anti-COVID vaccine... you might as well be falling for the same insane trains of thought that anti-vax and flat-earthers do. No amount of past or current information that has consensus among the scientific community can sway your beliefs about the shape of the Earth, the safety of vaccines, or the power-hungry, selfish nature of a lifelong gray-area business man turned demagogue.

I think the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers is relatively small. I'm talking people that don't believe in any vaccines.
At this point, I think there are a lot of parallels between the COVID vaccine and the annual influenza vaccines, and that's how most of the people that I know view this. So comparing the take rate of annual flu vaccines to the take rate of COVID is probably not too dissimilar. And the number of people that don't really see the point in getting the flu shot most years is way larger than the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers.

I don't understand how someone can see parallels between the flu vaccine with the covid vaccine.  The flu and covid are very different diseases, the risk/reward for the vaccines/disease is wildly different.

You don't see any similarities? Has our thinking gotten to be so binary on this subject that we cannot acknowledge any similarities between two different things?

Some similarities that I see:
Neither the flu vaccine or covid vaccine offers permanent immunity
Vaccines reduce the severity of symptoms for both viruses
We're very likely to need frequent boosters for either one, tailored to the given flavor of virus that's expected that season

The cost/benefit calculus changes every year with the flu vaccine depending on how virulent the virus is expected to be, and how effective the vaccine is against that particular strain. (Hopefully mRNA vaccine tech will make flu vaccines more effective and widely adopted in the future.) In recent years it's been pretty unusual to have 50% of the US population get the flu shot in a given year (that number includes children, who are often vaccinated at higher rates than young adults). 15k annual flu deaths would be low. 60k would be high. Yeah, Covid is a more serious threat. But we're also seeing more people vaccinated against it than we typically do for the flu too, and children aren't yet eligible to be vaccinated.

I guess my larger point is that there are a lot of people that would totally get a vaccine that granted permanent immunity, that meant we could actually eradicate this virus form the planet. The number of truly anti-vaxx people that wouldn't take that vaccine is likely pretty small. But there's probably a pretty significant part of the population that's at least a little hesitant to take any vaccine that is more or less just insurance against the worst outcomes and is only good for a relatively short time frame. That's where I see similarities to people's choices between the covid vaccine and the flu vaccine.

I don't see any similarities worth taking note of.  The virulence and deadliness of covid is significantly higher than that of the flu.  The effectiveness of the covid vaccine is significantly higher than that of typical flu shots.  The cost/benefit of being vaccinated against covid is pretty overwhelmingly on the 'get vaccinated' side.  That's not the case with the flu shot.

Yep. A low rate for the flu shot doesn't reliably fill up hospitals and cause a "crisis standards of care" in Idaho or Florida or Houston or etc.

Quote from: https://healthandwelfare.idaho.gov/crisis-standards-care
Crisis Standards of Care is a last resort. It means that the number of patients needing care is more than the amount of resources (e.g. space, equipment, etc.) available.

« Last Edit: September 29, 2021, 12:54:31 PM by bacchi »

DadJokes

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Those who don't get flu vaccinations often believe that they are not as at risk as the elderly, children, and people in poor health.

That belief isn't terribly different than the justification used by many for not getting the covid vaccine. Sure, there are other factors, but it boils down to a weighing of risk (often done poorly with regard to covid).

Metalcat

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The biggest difference between the flu shot and the covid shot is that near universal uptake of one is required for society to function.

The annual flu shot could just disappear and the overall function of society would chug along a little less efficiently.

If an individual is looking at the two as basically the same from their own individual experience, then they are failing to consider the impacts on them *personally* of this pandemic not being managed properly.

For example, I ended up in the ER with a suspected stroke right around the time that cases in my city were quite low, but in a city not far away, cases were out of control and patients were starting to be transported to my city for care. Not covid patients, any patients.

So just by chance, I was able to get efficient, effective care for something that could have been deadly. Had I been in a city where the medical system was collapsing, that night could have gone much poorer for me.

So it's not just the risk of getting seriously sick from covid. It's the risk of having a stroke, or heart attack, or car accident, and living in an area where vaccine uptake is low and the ER is flooded with people who can't breathe, so the subtle signs of your stroke get missed, and you end up permanently losing function of your bowels and your left leg and left arm because you don't get triaged ahead of the folks who can't breathe, and then a surgery that might help gets postponed by 3 years because elective surgeries keep getting suspended, and you can't find anyone to wipe your crippled ass because there's a shortage of support workers, and there are no new spots in nursing homes because they're all on lock down due to raging covid and staff shortages. So you can't walk, can't control your bowels, and can't even pay someone to change your adult diaper because a bunch of assholes thought the covid shot was as optional as the flu shot.

I've personally never been primarily afraid of covid, but I've had a chill in my spine thinking about other medical emergencies that could happen while the medical system is overburdened.

I'm lucky as hell that cases here were very low right at the time that I needed emergency care. My mom wasn't quite so lucky and ended up losing a kidney, which probably could have been prevented had the hospital not been so over burdened with covid at the time.

wenchsenior

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I know someone right now in a small city with one hospital, who as of last night desperately needs a short hospital stay to avoid potential life-threatening consequences.  There are no hospital beds available. ETA (no beds available not only in this small city, but they are looking throughout the entire state...so far with no success b/c the antivaxxers are taking up all the space). So he's on a cot in the ER indefinitely. Taking up ER space that acute patients really should have.

Fuck anti-vaxxers.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2021, 01:48:11 PM by wenchsenior »

Omy

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A friend of the family just died of something that should have been treatable. By the time he was admitted (after several hours of looking for a hospital bed), it was too late for surgery to save him.

PDXTabs

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I know someone right now in a small city with one hospital, who as of last night desperately needs a short hospital stay to avoid potential life-threatening consequences.  There are no hospital beds available. ETA (no beds available not only in this small city, but they are looking throughout the entire state...so far with no success b/c the antivaxxers are taking up all the space). So he's on a cot in the ER indefinitely. Taking up ER space that acute patients really should have.

Fuck anti-vaxxers.

As a pro-vax person I'm pretty pissed that these antivaxers aren't in a warehouse somewhere that the army corps built for them.

FIRE Artist

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I feel like the medical ethics books need to have a big re-write as a fall out from this pandemic, especially since there is no reason to expect that we won’t continue to see pandemics with more and more frequency.  The draining of resources from the entire medical system to feed into makeshift ICU beds to “avoid triage”, when triage is exactly what is happening to the patients who’s surgeries are being cancelled and postponed seems upside down to me.  We have stories of transplant programs being shut down and brain tumour removal being postponed.  We are draining routine, preventative and maintenance care for heroic care which has far less efficacy, that makes zero sense to me. 

GodlessCommie

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A friend of the family just died of something that should have been treatable. By the time he was admitted (after several hours of looking for a hospital bed), it was too late for surgery to save him.

I'm so sorry to hear that. Heartbreaking, even more so because it was so avoidable.

Sibley

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I feel like the medical ethics books need to have a big re-write as a fall out from this pandemic, especially since there is no reason to expect that we won’t continue to see pandemics with more and more frequency.  The draining of resources from the entire medical system to feed into makeshift ICU beds to “avoid triage”, when triage is exactly what is happening to the patients who’s surgeries are being cancelled and postponed seems upside down to me.  We have stories of transplant programs being shut down and brain tumour removal being postponed.  We are draining routine, preventative and maintenance care for heroic care which has far less efficacy, that makes zero sense to me.

Agreed. You have to consider the many, not just the one.

If you pour all your resources into a few people, leaving many people with no or inadequate care, then you failed. Especially if those few people are not likely to survive. I wonder what would happen if all the ICUs and hospitals nationwide had a rule right now that they will not do CPR on covid patients. Your heart stops, you're dead. End of story. From what I'm reading, the survival rate for delta once you're in the ICU is extremely poor, except it takes weeks for them to actually die.

It ties into the broader concept of just because you can do a thing doesn't mean you should. Yes, medical science can do amazing things. That doesn't mean we should. The problem is that medical science is relatively new. It takes much longer than 50 or 100 years for society to adapt to the types of advances we've had in that time frame. We simply haven't made that adjustment yet.

former player

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There must by now be survival statistics for unvaccinated covid patients with certain co-morbidities which are bad enough for them to be denied ICU care on the grounds that the resource is better used elsewhere.

Abe

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One issue is that many of these major anti-vax states do not have any statewide plan other than ignoring it. Refusing to treat a person based on their illness or how they got it is both unethical (violates the principles of autonomy, justice and beneficence) and illegal (violates federal law). Thus one can see how the hospitals’ hands are tied.

Regarding downstream level of care, again we run into the issue of care delivery based on the cause of illness and manner of getting ill is again unethical. Secondly, our healthcare is a reflection of societal mores. In general we are more aggressive with “futile healthcare theater” as I call it than others countries. Why? Because “Death Panels!!”. However, this is an interesting area of healthcare decision-making because it is clearly lawful for an attending physician to declare further care futile and thus not in the patients’ best interest. We can’t just ignore the family, because again of social norms. Thus there is a lot of counseling required to get family to agree to a do-not-resuscitate order.  I have personally guided many families through this process and have noted several key points:

1. No one wants the patient to suffer.
2. The definition of suffering varies widely from person to person.
3. Most families look to the clinician for guidance on what is acceptable and unacceptable suffering for potential survival. They have little experience and cannot reasonably make an informed decision in the heat of the moment.
4. Everyone dies, and acknowledging this in a mature, timely fashion reduces the suffering of your survivors that make the unbelievably difficult decision to let your body die when the time comes.

As clinicians we can easily say that CPR in a given situation is futile. And we will not be successfully challenged in court unless it’s clearly malicious intent. But we do have the responsibility to thread extremely carefully and not allow our views of morality cloud these decisions, as that will expose us to legal jeopardy.

Everything above is the easy part. Now comes the hard part: ventilator dependence with a persistive vegetative state. Some information on this (from my trauma experience):

1. Brain death is easy to determine. There are well described, ethical, lawful procedures to determine this state. It’s a process but very straightforward in every state (slight variations of documentation from state to state).
2. The human body can keep a brain physiologically functioning at a very basic level after tremendous insult. There is a vast spectrum of functioning between fully awake/alert and brain death. Respiratory failure in particular makes this a long, painful slide because oxygen deprivation for short periods will permanently and irreversibly shut down the functions we associate with cognition, but not basic reflexes like breathing, blinking, coughing and heart function.
3. If we artificially support oxygenation, the ability to maintain this basic level can be preserved for very long periods of time (potentially years). Ultimately the cause of death in these cases is insufficient oxygen to the heart causing an irreversible irregular rhythm that interrupts blood flow (cardiac death). Hearts, especially in young people, are extremely resilient and will last for weeks even if the brain barely functions. (Brain death will eventually interrupt these reflexes and result in cardiac death as the body fails to keep itself warm and regulate electrolytes the heart needs). This is the state most covid patients find themselves in. It takes up a ventilator, clinicians’ time and emotions, and other services for critical care. Most covid patients’ families are in denial for various reasons and thus the process is drawn out for weeks in many cases.

Can I legally say this care is futile? Yes. I can say that the chance of recovery is almost zero and absent a clear advanced directive, determine it is in the patients’ best interest to stop ventilator support. What are the ethical implications? How do I define too much suffering? What did the patient think (when they could think)? Who is being hurt by keeping the patient alive? Who is being hurt by not ending the patient’s life? Is my decision to stop care for a patient because of my implicit or explicit biases?

When I was younger, I helped keep a patient alive for days because I found the way he  was injured was so unjust that even now I think about it at night. In that time I thought I was being helpful, and it was reflected in his parents’ pleas to do everything. And we did literally everything that could be done. Emptied the blood bank. Clamped off major vessels with plans to amputate his legs at bedside. Emptied the blood that just got flown in (we used all of our reserves overnight). Opened his chest at bedside to restart his heart. Go back to the OR, clamp off his aorta. That did the trick, but it was obviously too late. Eventually he died from brain death, but he was dead even before I clamped off his aorta. It was all futile care and I should have known it.

It was only after he died (again, brain death is very simple to determine) that I thought to ask who were we treating. Not the patient, but the family and ourselves. After that I realized that emotion cannot be used to decide the way forward. The dying do not have that luxury for us to experiment on them to soothe our fear of letting go. But if we let go too soon, we are monsters in some people’s eyes. In that case, the parents also understood after time to grieve that their son was long gone. They said “we are only treating ourselves because we are cowards. Let him go.” That experience changed my life trajectory. I was going to be one thing, but became another. I thought that my patients should have the benefit of seeing the end coming, and planning for it. My patients still die, but with dignity because we help them prepare for it. It is still sad. But it is a different sadness when they say “thanks, but enough” and not their family saying “nothing is too much”.

Now if I had the same situation, but behaved callously because I thought the patient’s suffering was payback for their actions, I would be a monster. The one thing that made me a good at running trauma afterwards was learning from my mentors that we should acknowledge and subvert our implicit and explicit biases at every step. Why someone ended up in front of us, hemorrhaging to death did not matter. It was not our place to pass judgement. As a society we decided that everyone deserves to live, and doctors are not executioners. That’s the way it should be.

Hence the dilemma we face in our current predicament. If the quality (as our society defines it currently) of care we provide to unvaccinated covid patients is different from patients who had respiratory failure for some other reason (got shot during a robbery while closing their store, and bled out before they got to the hospital), we are complicit in their deaths. To say we need to rewrite the rules means we rewrite it for all of us. We can do what the UK does and uses a combination of age, co-morbid conditions and survival likelihood to decide on ICU vs palliative care. We can do what Japan does and as a society not accept “heroic measures” in most cases. We cannot let the reason for withholding care be based on our beliefs of who is a “good person” or “bad person”. If we had, the covid pandemic would’ve been a drop in the bucket of death from AIDS. We almost did cast “those people” aside. Do not repeat that mistake.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2021, 08:27:25 PM by Abe »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!