Author Topic: How much will non-vaxxing by GOP reduce the population of voting age republicans  (Read 87510 times)

mizzourah2006

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1072
  • Location: NWA
Can you explain "p-hacked?"  Sorry, but that is the first time I have heard of it.  What does the P stand for?

the p stands for p-value from significance testing. There are multiple ways to do it, but in most cases it involves manipulating the data to get the result you want, potentially by cutting the trial or study short when you hit your value, by throwing out "outliers" that don't conform or in some cases completely re-writing your hypotheses to match the results of your analysis. Some people call it data dredging too. HARKing is also another form of this which probably more closely aligns with what I described above.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15647155/

https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002106

Whenever I write papers and we are hypothesizing we tend to pre-register our hypotheses now. I hope more researchers would do this, but unfortunately like I mentioned above untenured professors are rewarded via publications, and you can't publish null results to any reasonable journal. I'm not in academia and the professors I write with are all tenured, so we just want to contribute to the scientific literature.

https://www.cos.io/initiatives/prereg


Yes, regarding the scientific method. I really really want for my birthday and Christmas, for this to be taught not just at college level but at elementary, middle, and HS (because either people never got it, or forgot when they did). Also how research papers are constructed. You have your intro, your methods, your results, and your conclusion. The methods have to be justified and consistent with what you are testing, and after you present your results, you interpret them in the conclusion. Not only are you required not to overstep or overstate what the results actually indicate, you are also required to list any weaknesses the study (lack of power, limitations of the population used, limits to methodology, etc) and what future research should look at. The scientific method is a process. Each paper is incomplete and only part of a larger process or body of knowledge. It may seem disappointing to those who think scientists have all the answers, or that science will provide a definitive unchanging "truth". I also see people read those limitations and conclude therefore the scientists don't know, or "nothing is known". That's also not true.

Honestly, even very well educated people I know don't actually understand how the scientific method works or choose to ignore it. I had to explain to an entire lab of PhD students, many of which are faculty at schools like Georgia Tech, Rice, etc. now, that what they were describing wasn't the scientific method. They believed that by doing a literature review, writing hypotheses and collecting data, then analyzing that data and re-writing their lit review and hypotheses to fit the data that that was the scientific method. I tried to explain to them that that was p-hacking and that the scientific method would include collecting a new set of data after re-writing their hypotheses. They politely told me I was wrong because their professor taught them that what they were doing was correct. Moral of the story is read even peer-reviewed literature with a keen eye. A good portion of it, especially in social sciences was p-hacked. That's what you get from a publish or perish model to tenure.

I used to teach research methods, and had students each find a paper (life sciences) and take it apart.  They were shocked at how many bad papers they could find in the peer-reviewed literature.  No explanation of why that species or that strain of a species was chosen.  Bad to terrible statistical analysis.  Bad descriptions of materials and methods.  And on and on.   Of course there were lots and lots of good papers, but they were expecting to find almost all good papers.

And people don't understand why the M&M section matters.  The insect hormones for moulting and pupation were found through really good M&Ms.  Anyone should be able to replicate an experiment from the info in the M&M.

That is an invaluable skill. You effectively made them reviewers. I didn't learn how to do that until halfway through my PhD. It helps me to this day in every study I read. I don't know that I would have had the patience to do that with most of the undergrads I taught :)
« Last Edit: January 18, 2022, 03:07:17 PM by mizzourah2006 »

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa

Yes, regarding the scientific method. I really really want for my birthday and Christmas, for this to be taught not just at college level but at elementary, middle, and HS (because either people never got it, or forgot when they did). Also how research papers are constructed. You have your intro, your methods, your results, and your conclusion. The methods have to be justified and consistent with what you are testing, and after you present your results, you interpret them in the conclusion. Not only are you required not to overstep or overstate what the results actually indicate, you are also required to list any weaknesses the study (lack of power, limitations of the population used, limits to methodology, etc) and what future research should look at. The scientific method is a process. Each paper is incomplete and only part of a larger process or body of knowledge. It may seem disappointing to those who think scientists have all the answers, or that science will provide a definitive unchanging "truth". I also see people read those limitations and conclude therefore the scientists don't know, or "nothing is known". That's also not true.

Honestly, even very well educated people I know don't actually understand how the scientific method works or choose to ignore it. I had to explain to an entire lab of PhD students, many of which are faculty at schools like Georgia Tech, Rice, etc. now, that what they were describing wasn't the scientific method. They believed that by doing a literature review, writing hypotheses and collecting data, then analyzing that data and re-writing their lit review and hypotheses to fit the data that that was the scientific method. I tried to explain to them that that was p-hacking and that the scientific method would include collecting a new set of data after re-writing their hypotheses. They politely told me I was wrong because their professor taught them that what they were doing was correct. Moral of the story is read even peer-reviewed literature with a keen eye. A good portion of it, especially in social sciences was p-hacked. That's what you get from a publish or perish model to tenure.

I'd like to ask a question by analogy.

In physics, a researcher observes a phenomenon, perhaps that the acceleration of falling objects seems to be the same.    They will hypothesize something like "gravity provides constant acceleration" and then construct experiments to try to prove or disprove the hypothesis.     Then they will try to compare a ball bearing and a feather, and it will seem to disprove their hypothesis.   

If the physicist was operating like your students, she might create a new hypothesis that says something like "flat objects fall more slowly than round objects" and she would use the experimental data from the original experiment to determine how much more slowly.

But a more appropriate way to do this would be to create a more appropriate experiment.   Instead of having a ball bearing and a feather, use a collection of objects with varying degrees of flatness and try and figure out the relationship between flatness and the acceleration that objects fall.**

In the physics example, the experiments are easy to carry out.   But in social sciences the experiments are difficult to carry out because they require the participation of a statistically significant number of people.  But too bad - if the experiment is not appropriate for the hypothesis, then you don't have good results.

Have I got it?

** Someone would eventually try the experiment in a vacuum and come up with a better theory...

mizzourah2006

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1072
  • Location: NWA
Exactly. You are describing the idea of creating new experiments and collecting "new" data to test an updated hypothesis or set of hypotheses. That is the scientific method. In the social sciences, because as you described, collecting data, especially laboratory data, is so cumbersome and they are in a hurry to get published they will analyze the data and either p-hack the results to get something that's statistically significant or re-write the hypotheses to fit the outcome of the analysis (HARKing).

This is honestly why meta-analyses are so important in the social sciences IMO. The chances that 10 different studies did something like that in the same direction are small, but the chances that one did are not as small as you might initially assume.

chemistk

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1743
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
It's also really important to emphasize that Social Sciences - especially those which involve general populations - are notoriously difficult to study. It's really hard to come up with specific conclusions about human behavior because there are just way, way, way too many variables.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23330
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
It's also really important to emphasize that Social Sciences - especially those which involve general populations - are notoriously difficult to study. It's really hard to come up with specific conclusions about human behavior because there are just way, way, way too many variables.

Many of the social "sciences" aren't very scientific in their approach.

For example, I've spent a fair amount of time reading psychological papers and from what I've read, it is a field riddled with manipulated data, poorly designed tests, and unreproducible results.  The theories of the field change as a result of societal mood rather than fact/data.  As you mentioned, this pseudo-scientific approach and general acceptance in the field appears largely caused by the difficulty of reducing variables to usable levels in testing of populations of people.

GodlessCommie

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 970
  • Location: NoVA
Some numbers on the topic of this topic: https://split-ticket.org/2022/01/19/vaccines-and-partisanship/

TL;DR: impact of deaths is marginal at best.

But the impact of Covid not being over (this from me, not the article); and voters, in their infinite wisdom, taking their frustration on Biden, is likely much larger. Note that Dems are underwater on the generic congressional ballot, and they need to be like +7 for a tie.

Psychstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1603
It's also really important to emphasize that Social Sciences - especially those which involve general populations - are notoriously difficult to study. It's really hard to come up with specific conclusions about human behavior because there are just way, way, way too many variables.

Many of the social "sciences" aren't very scientific in their approach.

For example, I've spent a fair amount of time reading psychological papers and from what I've read, it is a field riddled with manipulated data, poorly designed tests, and unreproducible results.  The theories of the field change as a result of societal mood rather than fact/data.  As you mentioned, this pseudo-scientific approach and general acceptance in the field appears largely caused by the difficulty of reducing variables to usable levels in testing of populations of people.

I'll grant you the last two, but do you have evidence that this is a widespread systemic issue?

FIPurpose

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2062
  • Location: ME
    • FI With Purpose
Some numbers on the topic of this topic: https://split-ticket.org/2022/01/19/vaccines-and-partisanship/

TL;DR: impact of deaths is marginal at best.

But the impact of Covid not being over (this from me, not the article); and voters, in their infinite wisdom, taking their frustration on Biden, is likely much larger. Note that Dems are underwater on the generic congressional ballot, and they need to be like +7 for a tie.

1. There have already been over 1 million excess deaths in the US from March 2020 - Dec 2021. By the time the 2022 election rolls around, it seems we will likely be at + 1 million for post vaccine numbers.

2. It wouldn't have affected the presidential outcome, but it would've affected 3 house outcomes. 3 house seats were determined by < .25%, and if the house is as competitive as people are making it out to be, then yes, there's a really big possibility that the house could be determined by a margin of covid deaths.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23330
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
It's also really important to emphasize that Social Sciences - especially those which involve general populations - are notoriously difficult to study. It's really hard to come up with specific conclusions about human behavior because there are just way, way, way too many variables.

Many of the social "sciences" aren't very scientific in their approach.

For example, I've spent a fair amount of time reading psychological papers and from what I've read, it is a field riddled with manipulated data, poorly designed tests, and unreproducible results.  The theories of the field change as a result of societal mood rather than fact/data.  As you mentioned, this pseudo-scientific approach and general acceptance in the field appears largely caused by the difficulty of reducing variables to usable levels in testing of populations of people.

I'll grant you the last two, but do you have evidence that this is a widespread systemic issue?

Just that it seems to be present more often than not in so much of the peer reviewed stuff that I've read.  The tests regularly appear to be poorly designed in order to prove the hypothesis rather than to actually research the subject.  The fact that results are so rarely reproducible also suggests shenanigans on the part of the researchers . . . I suppose it's possible that incompetence rather than intentional data manipulation could be at fault.

Certain areas of study in psychology appear to be far less prone to these problems - neuropsychology for example tends to be pretty good.

GodlessCommie

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 970
  • Location: NoVA
2. It wouldn't have affected the presidential outcome, but it would've affected 3 house outcomes. 3 house seats were determined by < .25%, and if the house is as competitive as people are making it out to be, then yes, there's a really big possibility that the house could be determined by a margin of covid deaths.

I'm not sure which people make it out to be competitive. My understanding is that most indicators - pres.approval, generic ballot, shift in party affiliation, results in NY, NJ, VA in '21, number of retirements - point to a bloodbath for Democrats. About the only positive news is that the death by redistricting alone seems to have been avoided.

JGS1980

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 908
2. It wouldn't have affected the presidential outcome, but it would've affected 3 house outcomes. 3 house seats were determined by < .25%, and if the house is as competitive as people are making it out to be, then yes, there's a really big possibility that the house could be determined by a margin of covid deaths.

I'm not sure which people make it out to be competitive. My understanding is that most indicators - pres.approval, generic ballot, shift in party affiliation, results in NY, NJ, VA in '21, number of retirements - point to a bloodbath for Democrats. About the only positive news is that the death by redistricting alone seems to have been avoided.

Just remember, a lot can change in 10 months. This time in 2020, I remember thinking Trump would be a shoe-in for reelection. This, of course, would of made it impossible to regain the Senate as well.

What will happen if Covid19 peters out, and people return to normal life over the summer?

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23330
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
2. It wouldn't have affected the presidential outcome, but it would've affected 3 house outcomes. 3 house seats were determined by < .25%, and if the house is as competitive as people are making it out to be, then yes, there's a really big possibility that the house could be determined by a margin of covid deaths.

I'm not sure which people make it out to be competitive. My understanding is that most indicators - pres.approval, generic ballot, shift in party affiliation, results in NY, NJ, VA in '21, number of retirements - point to a bloodbath for Democrats. About the only positive news is that the death by redistricting alone seems to have been avoided.

Just remember, a lot can change in 10 months. This time in 2020, I remember thinking Trump would be a shoe-in for reelection. This, of course, would of made it impossible to regain the Senate as well.

What will happen if Covid19 peters out, and people return to normal life over the summer?

Provided no new variant emerges in the next little while, covid does seem to be on the way out and that will impact the elections.  The extreme right wing activist nature of the current supreme court will become more evident - ending Roe v. Wade and continuing their erosion of the separation of Christianity and state (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3825759) which might be noticed by voters.  Who knows what new impacts climate change will have in that period . . . but major climate related disasters are likely to continue.

Too much change to make predictions.

By the River

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 477
Some numbers on the topic of this topic: https://split-ticket.org/2022/01/19/vaccines-and-partisanship/

TL;DR: impact of deaths is marginal at best.

But the impact of Covid not being over (this from me, not the article); and voters, in their infinite wisdom, taking their frustration on Biden, is likely much larger. Note that Dems are underwater on the generic congressional ballot, and they need to be like +7 for a tie.

Interesting study linked.  Even the marginal impact noted may be a little overstated since the author takes voters by county as all having the same propensity for vaccination.  However as noted in other surveys, Republicans are overweighted in older and white populations which have more likelihood of being vaccinated.  (at least white versus black populations.  Asians have a higher vaccination percentage than whites and Hispanics roughly equal based on the study I saw). 

partgypsy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5243
Can you explain "p-hacked?"  Sorry, but that is the first time I have heard of it.  What does the P stand for?

the p stands for p-value from significance testing. There are multiple ways to do it, but in most cases it involves manipulating the data to get the result you want, potentially by cutting the trial or study short when you hit your value, by throwing out "outliers" that don't conform or in some cases completely re-writing your hypotheses to match the results of your analysis. Some people call it data dredging too. HARKing is also another form of this which probably more closely aligns with what I described above.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15647155/

https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002106

Whenever I write papers and we are hypothesizing we tend to pre-register our hypotheses now. I hope more researchers would do this, but unfortunately like I mentioned above untenured professors are rewarded via publications, and you can't publish null results to any reasonable journal. I'm not in academia and the professors I write with are all tenured, so we just want to contribute to the scientific literature.

https://www.cos.io/initiatives/prereg


Yes, regarding the scientific method. I really really want for my birthday and Christmas, for this to be taught not just at college level but at elementary, middle, and HS (because either people never got it, or forgot when they did). Also how research papers are constructed. You have your intro, your methods, your results, and your conclusion. The methods have to be justified and consistent with what you are testing, and after you present your results, you interpret them in the conclusion. Not only are you required not to overstep or overstate what the results actually indicate, you are also required to list any weaknesses the study (lack of power, limitations of the population used, limits to methodology, etc) and what future research should look at. The scientific method is a process. Each paper is incomplete and only part of a larger process or body of knowledge. It may seem disappointing to those who think scientists have all the answers, or that science will provide a definitive unchanging "truth". I also see people read those limitations and conclude therefore the scientists don't know, or "nothing is known". That's also not true.

Honestly, even very well educated people I know don't actually understand how the scientific method works or choose to ignore it. I had to explain to an entire lab of PhD students, many of which are faculty at schools like Georgia Tech, Rice, etc. now, that what they were describing wasn't the scientific method. They believed that by doing a literature review, writing hypotheses and collecting data, then analyzing that data and re-writing their lit review and hypotheses to fit the data that that was the scientific method. I tried to explain to them that that was p-hacking and that the scientific method would include collecting a new set of data after re-writing their hypotheses. They politely told me I was wrong because their professor taught them that what they were doing was correct. Moral of the story is read even peer-reviewed literature with a keen eye. A good portion of it, especially in social sciences was p-hacked. That's what you get from a publish or perish model to tenure.

I used to teach research methods, and had students each find a paper (life sciences) and take it apart.  They were shocked at how many bad papers they could find in the peer-reviewed literature.  No explanation of why that species or that strain of a species was chosen.  Bad to terrible statistical analysis.  Bad descriptions of materials and methods.  And on and on.   Of course there were lots and lots of good papers, but they were expecting to find almost all good papers.

And people don't understand why the M&M section matters.  The insect hormones for moulting and pupation were found through really good M&Ms.  Anyone should be able to replicate an experiment from the info in the M&M.

That is an invaluable skill. You effectively made them reviewers. I didn't learn how to do that until halfway through my PhD. It helps me to this day in every study I read. I don't know that I would have had the patience to do that with most of the undergrads I taught :)

yes I was going to say that, p-hacking (or "massaging the data") is a lot more difficult to do, given that most funded studies need to register in clinicaltrials.org, and you specify your primary and secondary aims, and then after the study is done upload the results from those hypotheses. I do feel that looking at the data from a different perspective (post-hoc analysis) is not bad per say as it can point towards future research. But you can't write a paper making it seem like y was your primary hypothesis, after finding out x was not significant, etc.

GodlessCommie

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 970
  • Location: NoVA
In the latest Kaiser Family Foundation poll, vaccination rate among Black and Latino adults is higher than among White; Dems lead Rs by nearly 30 percentage points (scroll about half way down).

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-january-2022/

Just Joe

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6868
  • Location: In the middle....
  • Teach me something.
Thanks the KFF link. I was only vaguely aware of them and their mission.