- Where do you place the odds of an authoritarian government being elected into power in the US? Then where do you really place the odds of a few guys with guns in their basements being able to fight off the tanks, jets, nukes, and predator drones that would be used to fight against them? You're getting well into fantasy territory here.
I don't have a red dawn fantasy nor am I a military expert. Having said that, I suspect hundreds of millions of firearms could have some impact in a conflict. How much or how it would go? I'd prefer to not to find out.
I can tell you from experience, the Air Force alone could probably wipe out the vast majority of the population from the air. Firearms are pretty useless against long range bombers, F-15s, F14s, AC-130s, A-10s, etc.
Someone might get a lucky shot in on a low flying aircraft (Helos) or when the A-10 is making a strafe run (they generally fly low altitude for this).
I kind of laugh when someone brings up the government turning on it's own people (as to why we need to arm ourselves). Believe it or not, the military is largely made up of folks like us who largely despise many aspects of the government.
While this is true, this fact doesn't materially change the fact that bombs & high dollar vehicles don't win wars, and they definitely
can't subjugate ideologically driven populations. And here is another fact, that I can offer from personal experience; those fancy vehicles require some serious industrial support to keep them flying. If you don't think that the USMC, and probably the Army, doesn't have plans to make life very unsettling and rather unpeaceful in the event that one or more of the branches of the US military were to effect a 'coup'; then you haven't thought it through properly. And, I also know from experience, some US cities are very
well defended from air attack. This might just pertain to Cincinnati, Ohio (my area of expertise, and the home of GE Aircraft engines, as well as Avon Manufacturing in Avondale (Avon is a chemical manufacturing plant, just think about it), just north of Cinci, as well as a former nuclear fuel processing site in Indiana) but I know of at least one phalanx CIWS hidden in plain sight on a high hill, and I would suspect at least two more exist. There is no way that the Air Force is going to do anything unless they have control of that weapon, which they probably do; but the USMC (and Army) do know where it is.
I know that some of you just looked up what a phalanx gun is, and are presently thinking "OMG! How could they hide that thing?!". There are two of them rumored to be on the White House lawn. Just look at the photos online, if you didn't know that it was supposed to be a giant computer controlled cannon, what would you say it looks like?