Author Topic: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?  (Read 523574 times)

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #150 on: June 13, 2020, 08:12:18 PM »
You should be able to charge this one with a 100 amp service.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJk30Kj5jCA&t=18s

FINate

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #151 on: June 13, 2020, 08:48:57 PM »
The 2020 Hyundai Kona Electric looks promising. Subcompact SUV, 258 mile range, and overall reasonable specs for under $40k. And it looks like a normal car from an established auto maker with existing service network. Can fast charge to ~80% in under an hour.

Don't think I would want to road trip with it, but for a daily driver/commuter/around town it looks pretty ideal.

If the trend continues of price and technology improving, then Americans will start buying a lot more EVs. Especially two vehicle households. It makes a lot of sense to have an EV for short trips and an ICE for longer trips.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #152 on: June 13, 2020, 09:09:19 PM »
i bought a used 2010 prius for $8.5k a few years ago. 110k miles on it.

recently, the allure of the EV market + the federal credits + state sales tax credit + dealer incentives during covid have all caused me to consider buying. however, in calculating breakeven point for buying a new car (chevy bolt came out the cheapest at $23k) compared to my maintenance and fuel costs for the prius, i found it was between 18-21 years depending on gas prices (i assumed a range of $3.00-$3.50/gallon and $0.09/kwh for electric).

so, while i truly like the idea of an EV now, the range limits + high price just doesn't pencil out for me.

i understand that tesla is going to revolutionize its current battery technology to get more range for a lower cost, so maybe someday a tesla will be <$25k and then things will be closer.

for now, i will run the current car into the ground.

RWD

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #153 on: June 14, 2020, 08:41:33 AM »
The 2020 Hyundai Kona Electric looks promising.
These were already available for the 2019 model year, meaning they are starting to trickle onto the used market.

FINate

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #154 on: June 14, 2020, 10:01:10 AM »
The 2020 Hyundai Kona Electric looks promising.
These were already available for the 2019 model year, meaning they are starting to trickle onto the used market.

Good point! We're also planning on running our current vehicles into the ground. By then hopefully there are enough vehicles like the Kona EV in the used market that we can get a good deal.

sherr

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #155 on: June 15, 2020, 08:42:37 AM »
The vast majority of drivers don’t need a L2 supercharger in their home - they just need to plug it in overnight in a normal outlet.  On long-distance trips you simply stop every 3 hours or so for 10–20 minutes (depending on how much further you need to go before your next stop).

I agree with you, but having a L2 charger at home does make a psychological difference. Switching from thinking about your average mileage per day and what about the upper-limit 5% of cases are, to not thinking about it and approaching the car with a "oh the battery is getting low, I guess I'll bother to plug it in tonight" attitude, removes a huge barrier to entry.

I really like the UK's "L2 charging required in all new-construction garages" rule. That kind of thing is really easy to do if you're building everything from scratch anyway, and a lot harder to retrofit. Hopefully a lot more places will start following their example.

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #156 on: June 15, 2020, 08:59:02 AM »
The vast majority of drivers don’t need a L2 supercharger in their home - they just need to plug it in overnight in a normal outlet.  On long-distance trips you simply stop every 3 hours or so for 10–20 minutes (depending on how much further you need to go before your next stop).

I agree with you, but having a L2 charger at home does make a psychological difference. Switching from thinking about your average mileage per day and what about the upper-limit 5% of cases are, to not thinking about it and approaching the car with a "oh the battery is getting low, I guess I'll bother to plug it in tonight" attitude, removes a huge barrier to entry.

I really like the UK's "L2 charging required in all new-construction garages" rule. That kind of thing is really easy to do if you're building everything from scratch anyway, and a lot harder to retrofit. Hopefully a lot more places will start following their example.

To me, so much of the switch to PVs is psychological.  Range-anxiety is probably the most talked about, but "charging-speed" is a close second.  In reality the ranges for the latest crop of PVs (~250+ miles) and the overwhelming majority of people's daily driving (≤50 miles/day) means that all your needs can be serviced by what you already have at home (namely a 110v, 15amp outlet).  But people want their cars charged in roughly the same time-frame as you refuel an ICE vehicle, regardless of the differences (overnight vs. dedicated fuel-stop).  My FIL keeps reading articles about how various experimental batteries will get a full charge in 5 minutes, and THEN he'll buy one because it will be so GREAT!... except this man drives 3mi to work each day and occasionally makes the 20mi round trip to see his grandson, plus an additional ICE vehicle and a dedicated garage with exterior outlets.  He has absolutely zero need for rapid charging, and would be served just fine by an older Leaf with a ~70mi range. 

That's interesting with the new building codes in the UK - I had not heard that.  I wonder if its easier there because household outlets already run on 230v @ 50hz. I'm always impressed at how fast electric kettles work when I have to go over there vs. here in the US.  I agree that we could evoke a sea-change in perception around EVs if all new households and all new businesses were required to provide a certain number of L2 chargers per parking space.  Maybe a minimum of 1 per SFH and 1 for every 6 parking spaces.  My own workplace has 4 L2 chargers that are free to employees as a perk, and now there's a daily dance as there's more people driving EVs than chargers (there's about 80 employees in total).  They seem to have it worked out; one 'group' gets to charge in the morning and then moves during lunch, while the second group gets the afternoon.  All leave with full batteries each day, even though a few of them commute from another city ~30 miles away.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #157 on: June 15, 2020, 09:05:09 AM »
A lot of EV advocates believed new ICE cars sales pointed to a sizeable portion of the public "waiting" on buying a new car in hopes of a) saving up enough money for an EV and/or b) waiting to see if the prices would come down on new EVs, and/or c) waiting to see if range limits would increase.

I think this pandemic could really end up hurting EV sales in 2020 and 2021, though you'll still find some EV advocates who say the adoption of EVs is "inevitable" or whatever.  But I do think for ~95% of Americans, a new EV purchase would be considered a "luxury."  And luxuries are taking a back seat as millions are out of work and many COLA/merit increases, and bonuses are being waived this year, etc.  A lot of people who may have the income to afford an EV (typically, higher-paying "white collar" jobs) are working from home a lot (or permanently), so the wear and tear on their ICE/hybrid car is a lot less.  The need to upgrade probably isn't there, either.

It has been fascinating to watch the market share grow - but I don't anticipate a big jump in 2020 or 2021.  Still around ~2%, and that 2% includes PHEVs if I'm not mistaken.

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #158 on: June 15, 2020, 09:26:04 AM »
A lot of EV advocates believed new ICE cars sales pointed to a sizeable portion of the public "waiting" on buying a new car in hopes of a) saving up enough money for an EV and/or b) waiting to see if the prices would come down on new EVs, and/or c) waiting to see if range limits would increase.

I think this pandemic could really end up hurting EV sales in 2020 and 2021, though you'll still find some EV advocates who say the adoption of EVs is "inevitable" or whatever.  But I do think for ~95% of Americans, a new EV purchase would be considered a "luxury."  And luxuries are taking a back seat as millions are out of work and many COLA/merit increases, and bonuses are being waived this year, etc.  A lot of people who may have the income to afford an EV (typically, higher-paying "white collar" jobs) are working from home a lot (or permanently), so the wear and tear on their ICE/hybrid car is a lot less.  The need to upgrade probably isn't there, either.

It has been fascinating to watch the market share grow - but I don't anticipate a big jump in 2020 or 2021.  Still around ~2%, and that 2% includes PHEVs if I'm not mistaken.

I think it's far simpler than this.  The cost of gasoline is probably the biggest driver in fuel-efficient vehicles, including EVs.  There's been plenty of very strong correlation (and I'd argue causation) in the past several decades.  As we're in a low-point for gasoline right now I expect it will indeed hurt EV sales.  However - as you pointed out - the industry in general is seeing fewer sales as a lot more people are driving less and holding onto their cars longer.  If we see gasoline go back above $3/gal in 2021 the trend could be shortlived.

As to whether or not the switch to EVs is "inevitable" - I think public policy will also matter a great deal.  We had a back-slide of fuel efficiency standard under this administration, and a near-universal agreement that the federal gasoline tax is insufficient to properly provide for our current maintenance needs. Yes, EVs don't pay a gasoline tax at all.  If the next congress and administration(s) decide to finally tackle climate change in any meaningful way (i.e. carbon tax & increased charging infrastruture as outlined above) it very well could make the shift inevitable.  But if we carry on with "business as usual" it's just going to be a slow rise for the next decade+.  No idea which way it will go, but for those who insist there will never be robust change, we've seen massive shifts in support for gay rights and (more recently) racial equality. Public opinion has a tendancy to rise incrimentally until it hits some threshold, and then it shifts dramatically. 

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #159 on: June 15, 2020, 09:51:21 AM »
A lot of EV advocates believed new ICE cars sales pointed to a sizeable portion of the public "waiting" on buying a new car in hopes of a) saving up enough money for an EV and/or b) waiting to see if the prices would come down on new EVs, and/or c) waiting to see if range limits would increase.

I think this pandemic could really end up hurting EV sales in 2020 and 2021, though you'll still find some EV advocates who say the adoption of EVs is "inevitable" or whatever.  But I do think for ~95% of Americans, a new EV purchase would be considered a "luxury."  And luxuries are taking a back seat as millions are out of work and many COLA/merit increases, and bonuses are being waived this year, etc. A lot of people who may have the income to afford an EV (typically, higher-paying "white collar" jobs) are working from home a lot (or permanently), so the wear and tear on their ICE/hybrid car is a lot less.  The need to upgrade probably isn't there, either.

It has been fascinating to watch the market share grow - but I don't anticipate a big jump in 2020 or 2021.  Still around ~2%, and that 2% includes PHEVs if I'm not mistaken.

You'd think that, but rowing machines are basically impossible to find ($900-1000 Concept 2 rowers are going for $1300+) and sim racing hardware is massively overpriced (going for 50% over ordinary retail). People are still spending, but in different areas.

The lack of commute is IMO a much bigger factor..as you mentioned, those most likely to be able to afford a new EV are now likely working from home, so there's not much point.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #160 on: June 15, 2020, 10:05:36 AM »
A lot of EV advocates believed new ICE cars sales pointed to a sizeable portion of the public "waiting" on buying a new car in hopes of a) saving up enough money for an EV and/or b) waiting to see if the prices would come down on new EVs, and/or c) waiting to see if range limits would increase.

I think this pandemic could really end up hurting EV sales in 2020 and 2021, though you'll still find some EV advocates who say the adoption of EVs is "inevitable" or whatever.  But I do think for ~95% of Americans, a new EV purchase would be considered a "luxury."  And luxuries are taking a back seat as millions are out of work and many COLA/merit increases, and bonuses are being waived this year, etc. A lot of people who may have the income to afford an EV (typically, higher-paying "white collar" jobs) are working from home a lot (or permanently), so the wear and tear on their ICE/hybrid car is a lot less.  The need to upgrade probably isn't there, either.

It has been fascinating to watch the market share grow - but I don't anticipate a big jump in 2020 or 2021.  Still around ~2%, and that 2% includes PHEVs if I'm not mistaken.

You'd think that, but rowing machines are basically impossible to find ($900-1000 Concept 2 rowers are going for $1300+) and sim racing hardware is massively overpriced (going for 50% over ordinary retail). People are still spending, but in different areas.

The lack of commute is IMO a much bigger factor..as you mentioned, those most likely to be able to afford a new EV are now likely working from home, so there's not much point.

And as nereo pointed out - gas is pretty cheap.  Not sure what it is nationally but I've seen it under $2/gallon for a long time now.  So the "fuel savings" aren't even there to be realized if your cost per mile is similar and your total miles driving are much less as well.

BudgetSlasher

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #161 on: June 16, 2020, 06:02:19 AM »
The 2020 Hyundai Kona Electric looks promising. Subcompact SUV, 258 mile range, and overall reasonable specs for under $40k. And it looks like a normal car from an established auto maker with existing service network. Can fast charge to ~80% in under an hour.

Don't think I would want to road trip with it, but for a daily driver/commuter/around town it looks pretty ideal.

If the trend continues of price and technology improving, then Americans will start buying a lot more EVs. Especially two vehicle households. It makes a lot of sense to have an EV for short trips and an ICE for longer trips.

The 2019 is the wife's new car. She just wanted to get another Subaru and be done with it I made her cross shop the Subaru with comparable ICE cars (Toyota/Mazda/VW) and, since based on her past cars, she will have it for 10-15 years I dragged her to look at EVs (Bolt/Tesla/Kona/Niro). Range killed some EVs, like the E-golf even if just because of range anxiety.

I fully expected her to drive the EVs and dislike them and if I had to have bet, I would have said she bought another Forester.

She liked the Tesla, but couldn't get behind the image she felt owning one would project. But, the Kona EV was her favorite car we test drove. She liked that there is a dealer nearby, that there was surplus range for her daily commute, that at first glance it doesn't look different than a regular car, that it has a good feature list, and that the brand doesn't have the same kind of baggage as say a Tesla.

It has quickly taken from my car as the car we take when we are going somewhere together.

The only real knocks I have on the Kona Electric are:

Some of the interior parts are pretty cheap. We compared and sat in all EV trims and there are plenty of pieces that are right at home in the ~20k base model ICE Kona that feel really out of place/flimsy in a ~46k (if you were to get the EV ultimate) car (it reminds me a little of a early 2000's wrx I had an economy car they put all the money into the drivetrain).

And the back seat is bad, knee room isn't great and the floor is raised to house the batteries which makes it worse. If you have people with legs that can reach the floor that routinely ride in the back seat for an appreciable distance at a time it is probably best to consider the Kona's near twin the Kia Niro EV (or perhaps the delayed Kia Soul). For us it wasn't an issue, it is just the two of us with not plans to change that and the seating it ok for a quick jaunt if we were carpooling with another couple to dinner. Plus the Kona is the better looking and better driving car.

Despite being marketed as a SUV/CUV I would say it is much closer (at least in EV trim) to a hot hatch; 6.4 second 0-60, FWD only, less functional rear seats . . .

Oh and the way the DW drive it projects over EPA rated range at 80% change which is her day-to-day charging limit at 100% it guesses somewhere around 310; but they do call it a guess-o-meter with good reason.


nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #162 on: June 16, 2020, 07:16:51 AM »
A lot of EV advocates believed new ICE cars sales pointed to a sizeable portion of the public "waiting" on buying a new car in hopes of a) saving up enough money for an EV and/or b) waiting to see if the prices would come down on new EVs, and/or c) waiting to see if range limits would increase.

I think this pandemic could really end up hurting EV sales in 2020 and 2021, though you'll still find some EV advocates who say the adoption of EVs is "inevitable" or whatever.  But I do think for ~95% of Americans, a new EV purchase would be considered a "luxury."  And luxuries are taking a back seat as millions are out of work and many COLA/merit increases, and bonuses are being waived this year, etc. A lot of people who may have the income to afford an EV (typically, higher-paying "white collar" jobs) are working from home a lot (or permanently), so the wear and tear on their ICE/hybrid car is a lot less.  The need to upgrade probably isn't there, either.

It has been fascinating to watch the market share grow - but I don't anticipate a big jump in 2020 or 2021.  Still around ~2%, and that 2% includes PHEVs if I'm not mistaken.

You'd think that, but rowing machines are basically impossible to find ($900-1000 Concept 2 rowers are going for $1300+) and sim racing hardware is massively overpriced (going for 50% over ordinary retail). People are still spending, but in different areas.

The lack of commute is IMO a much bigger factor..as you mentioned, those most likely to be able to afford a new EV are now likely working from home, so there's not much point.

And as nereo pointed out - gas is pretty cheap.  Not sure what it is nationally but I've seen it under $2/gallon for a long time now.  So the "fuel savings" aren't even there to be realized if your cost per mile is similar and your total miles driving are much less as well.

Well to be clear, there are still fuel savings to be made, they just won’t be quite as much under the low fuel prices and less driving scenario.  Currently EVs cost roughly 2.5¢ to 4¢ per mile depending on the model, your driving conditions and electricity rates.  If you are generating your own electricity already and have a surplus (as we do) the cost is effectively 0¢ (up to some maximum threshold of electricity generated).

To compare, a car which gets 35mpg costs 5.7¢ per mile when gasoline is at $2/gallon (or 8.6¢ @ $3, and 11.4¢ @ $4/gal).  So at current low fuel prices, someone driving 8,000 miles/year pays ~$450 more each year for gasoline than an EV owner pays for electricity to drive the same amount.  As we’ve outlined above there are other maintenance savings as well.

So it’s not true to say the “fuel savings aren’t even there to be realized” - they are, they are just smaller.  Gasoline prices would need to drop below $1.40 before gasoline became cheaper, or MPG would have to be much higher than 35mpg.  Just for kicks, if you want to compare a Prius driven gently getting 52mpg, the break-even gasoline price would be $2.08 — almost exactly where we are at right now in my city (gasoline prices right now are $2.0599 with cash discount)

beltim

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #163 on: June 16, 2020, 07:44:29 AM »
And as nereo pointed out - gas is pretty cheap.  Not sure what it is nationally but I've seen it under $2/gallon for a long time now.  So the "fuel savings" aren't even there to be realized if your cost per mile is similar and your total miles driving are much less as well.

Well to be clear, there are still fuel savings to be made, they just won’t be quite as much under the low fuel prices and less driving scenario.  Currently EVs cost roughly 2.5¢ to 4¢ per mile depending on the model, your driving conditions and electricity rates.  If you are generating your own electricity already and have a surplus (as we do) the cost is effectively 0¢ (up to some maximum threshold of electricity generated).

To compare, a car which gets 35mpg costs 5.7¢ per mile when gasoline is at $2/gallon (or 8.6¢ @ $3, and 11.4¢ @ $4/gal).  So at current low fuel prices, someone driving 8,000 miles/year pays ~$450 more each year for gasoline than an EV owner pays for electricity to drive the same amount.  As we’ve outlined above there are other maintenance savings as well.

So it’s not true to say the “fuel savings aren’t even there to be realized” - they are, they are just smaller.  Gasoline prices would need to drop below $1.40 before gasoline became cheaper, or MPG would have to be much higher than 35mpg.  Just for kicks, if you want to compare a Prius driven gently getting 52mpg, the break-even gasoline price would be $2.08 — almost exactly where we are at right now in my city (gasoline prices right now are $2.0599 with cash discount)

Those rates are surely valid for some people, but I think you're understating the range of costs for EVs.  A Tesla in California costs 6.7 cents per mile on average.  In New York: 6.0 cents per mile; in Massachusetts, 7.9 cents per mile.  Given that California alone is responsible for about half of EV sales in the US, I think you need to recalibrate what the actual, typical cost of running an EV is.  Sure, it can still save money on operating costs (but not always), but not nearly as much as you indicate in your post.

Also, home solar isn't free: it's prepaid.  That may or may not make the price lower than grid electric (hopefully it does), but it's a huge upfront cost.

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #164 on: June 16, 2020, 08:32:19 AM »
And as nereo pointed out - gas is pretty cheap.  Not sure what it is nationally but I've seen it under $2/gallon for a long time now.  So the "fuel savings" aren't even there to be realized if your cost per mile is similar and your total miles driving are much less as well.

Well to be clear, there are still fuel savings to be made, they just won’t be quite as much under the low fuel prices and less driving scenario.  Currently EVs cost roughly 2.5¢ to 4¢ per mile depending on the model, your driving conditions and electricity rates.  If you are generating your own electricity already and have a surplus (as we do) the cost is effectively 0¢ (up to some maximum threshold of electricity generated).

To compare, a car which gets 35mpg costs 5.7¢ per mile when gasoline is at $2/gallon (or 8.6¢ @ $3, and 11.4¢ @ $4/gal).  So at current low fuel prices, someone driving 8,000 miles/year pays ~$450 more each year for gasoline than an EV owner pays for electricity to drive the same amount.  As we’ve outlined above there are other maintenance savings as well.

So it’s not true to say the “fuel savings aren’t even there to be realized” - they are, they are just smaller.  Gasoline prices would need to drop below $1.40 before gasoline became cheaper, or MPG would have to be much higher than 35mpg.  Just for kicks, if you want to compare a Prius driven gently getting 52mpg, the break-even gasoline price would be $2.08 — almost exactly where we are at right now in my city (gasoline prices right now are $2.0599 with cash discount)

Those rates are surely valid for some people, but I think you're understating the range of costs for EVs.  A Tesla in California costs 6.7 cents per mile on average.  In New York: 6.0 cents per mile; in Massachusetts, 7.9 cents per mile.  Given that California alone is responsible for about half of EV sales in the US, I think you need to recalibrate what the actual, typical cost of running an EV is.  Sure, it can still save money on operating costs (but not always), but not nearly as much as you indicate in your post.

Also, home solar isn't free: it's prepaid.  That may or may not make the price lower than grid electric (hopefully it does), but it's a huge upfront cost.

I think we're not talking about the same thing here.  What I was calculating above was the electricity cost per mile driven, which is just one component of the total cost per mile driven.  FWIW the range of 2.5¢ to 4¢/mi of electricity is based on electriciy rates of 7.5¢/kw*h to 12kw*h and an EV efficiency of 3mi/kw.  To put those numbers into context, the median residential electricity price in the US is around 12¢*kw last I checked.  I do see that most states fall into this range - the ones that don't are basically in California, New England or AK/Hawai'i.  One should certainly adjust for their locale.  Yet newer EV efficiency is often better than 3mi/kw; the Tesla Model 3's EPA rating is 4.1; Chevy Bolt 2020 is 3.4.
If you want to calculate electricity cost per mile for higher-cost states (CA = 19¢/kw*h; NY = 17.8¢; MA = 21.6¢ per Mr Google).  The corresponding rates on a Model 3 would be 4.6¢/mi; 4.3¢ and 5.2¢ -- respectively.  That would put the gasoline/electricity "break-even" point at $1.50 to $1.82 compared to an ICE engine with 35mpg efficiency. 
And of course the normal caveats apply; change any of hte variables (cost of electricity, efficiency of either the EV or the ICE and the cost of gasoline) and the point shifts.

As ofr home solar, you are correct that it a large upfront cost.  My broader point is that we are currently producing an excess of power which are building up as credits (i.e. 'net metering').  Unused they are a lost opportunity and basically worthless. So if I'm measuring the cost of driving our ICE vehicle vs EV, the fuel-cost per mile will be (current cost of gasoline / mpg) vs Zero (up to the point where we do not have an excess of credits).  But as you mentioned it is also fair to say this was factored into our decision and already paid for, in which case we've estimated that our PV will be cost-neutral in about 7 years with our energy consumption and charging 6,000 miles/year at an average gasoline cost of $3/gallon.  Any changes in those variables shifts the payoff period somewhat.  After this point one could either back-calculate and reduce the cost of electricity generated over the total time period, or assume all power from that point forward is "free".  Both methods have thier issues.

beltim

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #165 on: June 16, 2020, 08:45:55 AM »
I think we're not talking about the same thing here.  What I was calculating above was the electricity cost per mile driven, which is just one component of the total cost per mile driven.  FWIW the range of 2.5¢ to 4¢/mi of electricity is based on electriciy rates of 7.5¢/kw*h to 12kw*h and an EV efficiency of 3mi/kw.  To put those numbers into context, the median residential electricity price in the US is around 12¢*kw last I checked.  I do see that most states fall into this range - the ones that don't are basically in California, New England or AK/Hawai'i.  One should certainly adjust for their locale.  Yet newer EV efficiency is often better than 3mi/kw; the Tesla Model 3's EPA rating is 4.1; Chevy Bolt 2020 is 3.4.
If you want to calculate electricity cost per mile for higher-cost states (CA = 19¢/kw*h; NY = 17.8¢; MA = 21.6¢ per Mr Google).  The corresponding rates on a Model 3 would be 4.6¢/mi; 4.3¢ and 5.2¢ -- respectively.  That would put the gasoline/electricity "break-even" point at $1.50 to $1.82 compared to an ICE engine with 35mpg efficiency. 
And of course the normal caveats apply; change any of hte variables (cost of electricity, efficiency of either the EV or the ICE and the cost of gasoline) and the point shifts.

No, we're talking about the same thing here.  I was using the Tesla Model S numbers, because I never remember which Tesla is which, and electricity numbers that were comparable to yours.  But my larger point is that most EV users pay higher per mile costs from electricity than even your upper bound, and your Model 3 numbers also confirm that.

Quote
As ofr home solar, you are correct that it a large upfront cost.  My broader point is that we are currently producing an excess of power which are building up as credits (i.e. 'net metering').  Unused they are a lost opportunity and basically worthless. So if I'm measuring the cost of driving our ICE vehicle vs EV, the fuel-cost per mile will be (current cost of gasoline / mpg) vs Zero (up to the point where we do not have an excess of credits).  But as you mentioned it is also fair to say this was factored into our decision and already paid for, in which case we've estimated that our PV will be cost-neutral in about 7 years with our energy consumption and charging 6,000 miles/year at an average gasoline cost of $3/gallon.  Any changes in those variables shifts the payoff period somewhat.  After this point one could either back-calculate and reduce the cost of electricity generated over the total time period, or assume all power from that point forward is "free".  Both methods have thier issues.

Sure, that's fine for you, as long as you calculate the costs somehow.  Solar energy is never free though.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #166 on: June 16, 2020, 09:02:14 AM »
Ok, than we understand each other, even if we are answering slightly different questions.  If you are saying "most EV owners live in high electricity states like CA, NY or MA and drive the less efficient (but more powerful) model S" - sure, the electricity cost per mile driven will be in the 5¢-6¢ range, and the equivalent gasoline price for a 35mpg ICE engine will be around $1.80.  But if we're going to be objective it's also important to note that these states ALSO historically have a much higher than average cost of gasoline.  CA is currently at $3.01/gal even as the national average sits at $2.10

OTOH, if you want to ask "what is the cost of electricity per mile driven across most of hte country and in a more efficient Model 3 / Bolt / Leaf" - the answer would be in the 2.5¢-4¢ range I gave up thread

Either way, my broader point (being made to DarkandStormy) still stands - there are still fuel savings to be made even when gasoline is $2/gal.  To reach a point where gasoline is a cheaper fuel one must have prices fall much further in their area than we've seen even during the bottom of this latest oil glut.

To be clear, the economic argument for an EV isn't particularly strong when gasoline is around $2/gal nationally.  But EV owners still get a savings on their fuel over ICE counterparts in even this scenario - which is perhasp the most favorable we've seen for ICE vehicles in decades.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #167 on: June 16, 2020, 09:23:40 AM »
It is not just the fuel savings on an EV.  The only maintenance cost on my 2015 Leaf that I got in 2018 has been replacement wipers and we bought new snow tires last November.  No oil changes, brakes or typical ICE vehicle cost. 

Dealerships typically don't have EV's on the lot to test drive.  Once you drive one, the noise of an ICE vehicle is almost unbearable for us highly sensitive types.  I had to use the ICE vehicle for work yesterday.  I hate driving it.  Our second vehicle still has some life in it (we are aiming to keep it until it is 20 years old) but I am looking forward to having an longer range second EV in our garage.

We still trickle charge the EV overnight even though we have an fast charger now.  Apparently slow charging is better for battery life and since we have only had the L2 installed for a few months, we just plug in at 7pm and charge overnight.  It is nice to have the L2 available so that we don't have to plan as much if we want to do a bunch of errands during a cold snowy day.  (Cold and slushy roads really alter range)

My son is commuting 4 days a week this summer in the EV.  The range is a little dicey for the second return trip, so he just charges the night before work.  Coming home with no heat or air conditioning with the warnings of low battery are not enjoyable at the end of a long day. 

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #168 on: June 16, 2020, 09:29:25 AM »
I would put my statement slightly differently, which is that for the most common electric vehicles, for most of the people driving them, pay rates above the high range of your initial estimate.  This doesn't necessarily mean that the average electricity price per mile is higher than the high end of the range you said, but I would guess that it is.  It is true that gas prices are often higher in those locations as well.

When I ran the numbers in a high electricity prices, high gas prices state in 2015 for a Leaf, the Leaf had equivalent fuel costs of a car that got 36 mpg.


I've never lived anywhere where I could charge an electric vehicle at home, so for me this is a purely academic exercise for me, but I was trying to figure out the cost per mile for a Leaf.  Sources on the internet tell me it takes about 30 kWh per 100 miles.  I pay about 25 cents per mile[sic - should be kWh] for electricity (mostly thanks to poor planning by politicians), so that works out to $7.50 per 100 miles or 7.5 cents per mile.

In comparison, a gallon of gas is about $2.75 here.  For a vehicle that gets 30 mpg, that's about 9.2 cents per mile.


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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #169 on: June 16, 2020, 09:53:29 AM »
The 2019 is the wife's new car. She just wanted to get another Subaru and be done with it I made her cross shop the Subaru with comparable ICE cars (Toyota/Mazda/VW) and, since based on her past cars, she will have it for 10-15 years I dragged her to look at EVs (Bolt/Tesla/Kona/Niro). Range killed some EVs, like the E-golf even if just because of range anxiety.

I fully expected her to drive the EVs and dislike them and if I had to have bet, I would have said she bought another Forester.

She liked the Tesla, but couldn't get behind the image she felt owning one would project. But, the Kona EV was her favorite car we test drove. She liked that there is a dealer nearby, that there was surplus range for her daily commute, that at first glance it doesn't look different than a regular car, that it has a good feature list, and that the brand doesn't have the same kind of baggage as say a Tesla.

It has quickly taken from my car as the car we take when we are going somewhere together.

The only real knocks I have on the Kona Electric are:

Some of the interior parts are pretty cheap. We compared and sat in all EV trims and there are plenty of pieces that are right at home in the ~20k base model ICE Kona that feel really out of place/flimsy in a ~46k (if you were to get the EV ultimate) car (it reminds me a little of a early 2000's wrx I had an economy car they put all the money into the drivetrain).

And the back seat is bad, knee room isn't great and the floor is raised to house the batteries which makes it worse. If you have people with legs that can reach the floor that routinely ride in the back seat for an appreciable distance at a time it is probably best to consider the Kona's near twin the Kia Niro EV (or perhaps the delayed Kia Soul). For us it wasn't an issue, it is just the two of us with not plans to change that and the seating it ok for a quick jaunt if we were carpooling with another couple to dinner. Plus the Kona is the better looking and better driving car.

Despite being marketed as a SUV/CUV I would say it is much closer (at least in EV trim) to a hot hatch; 6.4 second 0-60, FWD only, less functional rear seats . . .

Oh and the way the DW drive it projects over EPA rated range at 80% change which is her day-to-day charging limit at 100% it guesses somewhere around 310; but they do call it a guess-o-meter with good reason.

Thanks for the info! I'm tall and my daughters are quite tall for their age. We're still a few years from taking the EV plunge, hopefully by then there are more options with seating that works for us.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #170 on: June 16, 2020, 09:54:00 AM »
Are insurance rates better, worse or similar for electric cars?

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #171 on: June 16, 2020, 10:06:15 AM »
I don't know @pecunia. Our insurer had no separate categories.  And since we replace a 2005 dodge grand caravan with a 2015 Leaf, the insurance was slightly more.  But the insurance on the Leaf for my son is $200 a year cheaper than his coverage would have cost if we got him insured on the DH's 2004 Acura Integra TL.  (apparently it is still considered a sports car).

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #172 on: June 16, 2020, 10:16:26 AM »
Are insurance rates better, worse or similar for electric cars?

I've not noticed any difference between driving comparable classes and $$ of ICE cars.
From a liability standpoint there's little reason for there to be much of a difference.  If we are comparing a $40k EV to a similar $40 ICE, Liability, Collision, Personal Injury and Uninsured should all be identical or very, ery similar.  Not sure how much Comprehensive would change, but we have a $1k deductible anyhow so it's only a few dollars per month for us.  A big driver of comprehensive IIRC is how likely your car is to be stolen.  In the distant past I drove a VW that had a much higher than expected comprehensive... I asked why and it was because it was one of THE top models for theives to target... not just to steal the entire car but also for tires/rims and whatnot.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #173 on: June 16, 2020, 10:35:35 AM »
Are insurance rates better, worse or similar for electric cars?

I've not noticed any difference between driving comparable classes and $$ of ICE cars.
From a liability standpoint there's little reason for there to be much of a difference.  If we are comparing a $40k EV to a similar $40 ICE, Liability, Collision, Personal Injury and Uninsured should all be identical or very, ery similar.  Not sure how much Comprehensive would change, but we have a $1k deductible anyhow so it's only a few dollars per month for us.  A big driver of comprehensive IIRC is how likely your car is to be stolen.  In the distant past I drove a VW that had a much higher than expected comprehensive... I asked why and it was because it was one of THE top models for theives to target... not just to steal the entire car but also for tires/rims and whatnot.

There's a huge variance in carriers too - I was using New Jersey Manufacturer's and paying $1300+/yr for a 2017 Bolt, then I switched to AllState and I'm paying just under $1100/yr for a 2020 Model 3.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #174 on: June 16, 2020, 10:45:18 AM »
I think in the rush to claim some (currently pretty small) fuel savings, and very small maintenance savings (an oil change is like $30 and most cars need one once a year; brakes are maybe $300 DIY/$1k from a dealer and once every 5 years...) we are ignoring the massive up front cost difference. A Bolt stickers for $37k and is comparable in all but drivetrain to a Spark or Sonic that costs $13-17k. A Leaf is $32k, but comparable to a $15k Versa or $20k Sentra. Yes there are some tax incentives available in there potentially, but the flip side is depreciation on new EVs that aren’t Tesla’s tends to be massive (granted, good if you are buying used).

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #175 on: June 16, 2020, 10:54:41 AM »
I think in the rush to claim some (currently pretty small) fuel savings, and very small maintenance savings (an oil change is like $30 and most cars need one once a year; brakes are maybe $300 DIY/$1k from a dealer and once every 5 years...) we are ignoring the massive up front cost difference. A Bolt stickers for $37k and is comparable in all but drivetrain to a Spark or Sonic that costs $13-17k. A Leaf is $32k, but comparable to a $15k Versa or $20k Sentra. Yes there are some tax incentives available in there potentially, but the flip side is depreciation on new EVs that aren’t Tesla’s tends to be massive (granted, good if you are buying used).

My 2.5yo Bolt was $18k :)   Depreciation can be awesome if you time it right!

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #176 on: June 16, 2020, 11:17:21 AM »
I think in the rush to claim some (currently pretty small) fuel savings, and very small maintenance savings (an oil change is like $30 and most cars need one once a year; brakes are maybe $300 DIY/$1k from a dealer and once every 5 years...) we are ignoring the massive up front cost difference. A Bolt stickers for $37k and is comparable in all but drivetrain to a Spark or Sonic that costs $13-17k. A Leaf is $32k, but comparable to a $15k Versa or $20k Sentra. Yes there are some tax incentives available in there potentially, but the flip side is depreciation on new EVs that aren’t Tesla’s tends to be massive (granted, good if you are buying used).

It not just tax incentives.  A bolt may sticker for $37k but there’s an $8500 manufacturer rebate and (where I live) an additional $2500 state cash rebate for buying an EV.  So ... that $37k sticker is closer to $26k.  I really wouldn’t put the Bolt and Spark in the same category but that’s another argument

But the point about upfront cost and yours and JLee’s depreciation stands. It’s going to take several years to recoup the additional cost of an EV over “similar” ICE models, if that is your only metric.  Over the course of a vehicle’s expected lifespan (200k+ miles) an EV certainly comes out ahead.  But in my calculations it doesn’t pass the ICE vehicle until somewhere around the 40k-60k mark.

As always, the cost of fuel and electricity in your area pay a big role.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #177 on: June 16, 2020, 11:30:23 AM »
I think in the rush to claim some (currently pretty small) fuel savings, and very small maintenance savings (an oil change is like $30 and most cars need one once a year; brakes are maybe $300 DIY/$1k from a dealer and once every 5 years...) we are ignoring the massive up front cost difference. A Bolt stickers for $37k and is comparable in all but drivetrain to a Spark or Sonic that costs $13-17k. A Leaf is $32k, but comparable to a $15k Versa or $20k Sentra. Yes there are some tax incentives available in there potentially, but the flip side is depreciation on new EVs that aren’t Tesla’s tends to be massive (granted, good if you are buying used).

My 2.5yo Bolt was $18k :)   Depreciation can be awesome if you time it right!
My 3 yo Leaf was also $18k CAN.  But it came with a L2 charger and snow tires on their own rims.
We were paying about 75$ CAN a fill up on the old van about every two and a half weeks.  Our electricity consumption went up about $8 a month because we were also installing more efficient lights at the same time.  And the second car is hardly ever driven so full consumption in it is now about 1/4 of what it used to be.
We were doing 3 oil changes a year on the van and because it was so old, we were also pouring $600 here and there.  With around 20 moving parts in an EV, the maintenance is way less.  And batteries are lasting much longer than previously estimated. 

And my 2015 Leaf was way nicer to drive than my neighbour's 2016 Camry or 2018 Versa.  The Versa feels like driving a sewing machine (only drive it around town) and the Camry is so loud on the highway (did a road trip last year to Vermont in it).  The Leaf feels like a sports car in comparison.  (My brothers, Audi's, late Dad, mercedes convertible and stepmom, various cadillacs and audi, all have very fancy ICE vehicles so I  have driven and ridden in some very fancy cars).  If the interior on the Leaf was less cheap looking, the quiet and torque make it feel like I am driving one of their oozemobiles.  (My first car was the 9 year old handed down Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme with the burgundy velvetine interior and rag top- I oozed on down the road for a couple of years in that gas guzzler.)

Our payback calculation was way too conservative on the cost savings.  And completely unaware of how much nicer being able to listening to the radio or phone at a lower volume is.  And it smells so much better. 

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #178 on: June 16, 2020, 12:51:25 PM »
Also nice to be able to "idle" an EV and not get poisoned. I've napped in a Leaf with the a/c on for half an hour.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #179 on: June 16, 2020, 12:57:12 PM »
Also nice to be able to "idle" an EV and not get poisoned. I've napped in a Leaf with the a/c on for half an hour.

A youth pastor at my old church very nearly accidentally killed one of his kids by accidentally leaving the car idling in the garage overnight when the kid's bedroom was above the garage. I'm sure this is not a common occurrence, but it was close enough to home to be striking to me. Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

These are small things, yes. But I truly believe that electric cars are better vehicles.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #180 on: June 16, 2020, 01:32:32 PM »
Also nice to be able to "idle" an EV and not get poisoned. I've napped in a Leaf with the a/c on for half an hour.

A youth pastor at my old church very nearly accidentally killed one of his kids by accidentally leaving the car idling in the garage overnight when the kid's bedroom was above the garage. I'm sure this is not a common occurrence, but it was close enough to home to be striking to me. Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

These are small things, yes. But I truly believe that electric cars are better vehicles.

My ex worked in insurance law.  IIRC The #1 way that houses caught fire wasn't from kitchen fires (which was #2) but from vehicles in the garage (and the reason why having an attached garage raises your insurance premium).  Makes sense when you consider that the exhaust manifold can reach 900ºF, and people tend to store all sorts of flammable crap (paint, gasoline, cleaners, boxes of papers, etc) in their garage, and the garage tends not to have great ventilation when closed.  So you've got flammable materials, an ignition source and a closed environment.  And never forget that gasoline is not only flammable but has a cvery low vapor point.

When we bought our newest house and were doing the home inspection there was a TON of stuff we needed to change to bring it up to code, but very little concerned our inspector.  Older wiring, poorly installed drains, insufficient insulation and poor ventelation all got shrugs and "you should fix it when you can".  When we got to the garage - which has a bedroom above it and had zero drywall or other firebreak his reaction was "oh hell no, that has to change immediately".

Lithium batteries can have their own safety issues if there's a manufacturing defect (see Samsung's Note 8 debacle) but early evidence shows them to be far safer (at least to the owner/homeowner) than an ICE vehicle.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #181 on: June 16, 2020, 07:05:33 PM »
Are insurance rates better, worse or similar for electric cars?

I cannot really say.

The DW's insurance costs went up slightly, but she went from a 12 y/o car that we had dropped some coverage on (no reason carry certain coverage when anything would "total" the car and the payout would only be ~1200) to a modern car in a higher price bracket with more coverage.

At the same time we also reviewed and adjusted things like number of miles driven a year (she has a new job and more miles).

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #182 on: June 17, 2020, 09:14:37 AM »
Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

Tesla is not an honest company.

https://twitter.com/MidwestHedgie/status/1120763087139811328


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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #183 on: June 17, 2020, 09:21:03 AM »
It certainly must be true that the electric cars are much less likely to catch on fire than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.  There is a much smaller market penetration of electric cars.  Electric cars are still the rarity and not the norm.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #184 on: June 17, 2020, 09:25:54 AM »
Tesla is not an honest company.

I would lump most of the larger automakers into that category too.  Ford (Firestone Tire Scandal); Toyota (acceleration coverup); Volkswagen ('Diesel-gate"); Audi (acceleration); GM (Ignition-swiches).  Not to mention suppliers such as Takata (airbag-shrapnel).

All of these were known problems with an deliberate coverup, a bunch of deaths, and massive financial settlements.

For profit companies will have a motive to obscure negative information.  That's why we need oversight such as the NHSB, the EPA and the courts in general.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #185 on: June 17, 2020, 09:26:45 AM »
It certainly must be true that the electric cars are much less likely to catch on fire than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.  There is a much smaller market penetration of electric cars.  Electric cars are still the rarity and not the norm.
Likelihood denotes probability.  It is independent of the total number of units or individuals.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #186 on: June 17, 2020, 09:26:51 AM »
It certainly must be true that the electric cars are much less likely to catch on fire than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.  There is a much smaller market penetration of electric cars.  Electric cars are still the rarity and not the norm.

That is not what that phrase means. It means "given a car, if a gas car has X% chance of burning in its lifetime then an electric car has (X/11)% chance."
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 09:36:05 AM by sherr »

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #187 on: June 17, 2020, 09:34:53 AM »
Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

Tesla is not an honest company.

https://twitter.com/MidwestHedgie/status/1120763087139811328

While that is interesting, they are also extrapolating from 4 cases (5 deaths). I also don't think there have been any fire deaths since then (tweet was made April 2019), and the number of Teslas on the road have been steadily and rapidly increasing. I'd like to see what those numbers look like now, and five years from now. I'm also curious how Tesla came up with their number.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 09:38:58 AM by sherr »

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #188 on: June 17, 2020, 09:37:26 AM »
Looks like the phrase said "cars" and not "car."  So I would think any car in the set catching fire would count.  I could go a step further.  Any time you operate an internal combustion engine there is a fire.  However, you can not claim all internal combustion engines will catch on fire because there is some poor guy stuck in the ditch somewhere without gas.

You may think me silly,........and I am.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #189 on: June 17, 2020, 09:40:38 AM »
Looks like the phrase said "cars" and not "car."  So I would think any car in the set catching fire would count. 

That is where you would be mistaken.

To illustrate, if a study said "People in Canada are 4x more likely to be hockey fans than people in the United States" - it doesn't mean there are 4 times as many total hockey fans in Canada.  It's the proportion of the overall population in each country.  With almost 10x the population there would still be more total fans in the US than Canada.


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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #190 on: June 17, 2020, 09:43:50 AM »
Looks like the phrase said "cars" and not "car."  So I would think any car in the set catching fire would count. 

You may think me silly,........and I am.

That is where you would be mistaken.

To illustrate, if a study said "People in Canada are 4x more likely to be hockey fans than people in the United States" - it doesn't mean there are 4 times as many total hockey fans in Canada.  It's the proportion of the overall population in each country.  With almost 10x the population there would still be more total fans in the US than Canada.

She was joking.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 09:46:33 AM by sherr »

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #191 on: June 17, 2020, 09:48:53 AM »
Looks like the phrase said "cars" and not "car."  So I would think any car in the set catching fire would count. 

You may think me silly,........and I am.

That is where you would be mistaken.

To illustrate, if a study said "People in Canada are 4x more likely to be hockey fans than people in the United States" - it doesn't mean there are 4 times as many total hockey fans in Canada.  It's the proportion of the overall population in each country.  With almost 10x the population there would still be more total fans in the US than Canada.

She was joking.

Oops... sorry, I missed that.
I often miss sarcasm IRL. 
Apologies.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #192 on: June 17, 2020, 09:53:45 AM »
Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

Tesla is not an honest company.

https://twitter.com/MidwestHedgie/status/1120763087139811328

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-facing-scrutiny-for-car-fires-but-more-ice-fires-2019-5

One out of eight fire department calls are for vehicle fires, or 157 per day - meanwhile it seems every time a Tesla catches on fire, there's a news article about it.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #193 on: June 17, 2020, 10:42:27 AM »
Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

Tesla is not an honest company.

https://twitter.com/MidwestHedgie/status/1120763087139811328

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-facing-scrutiny-for-car-fires-but-more-ice-fires-2019-5

One out of eight fire department calls are for vehicle fires, or 157 per day - meanwhile it seems every time a Tesla catches on fire, there's a news article about it.

Wow, almost like there's 260m+ ICE cards on the road in the U.S.  Can you adjust for per capita?

Quote
Tesla averaged roughly 370k cars "on the road" in any given month in 2018, and had 530k cars on the road to begin 2019. Thus, if Tesla were an average car, we would have expected 0.23 Tesla fire deaths in 2016, 0.35 in 2017, 0.45 deaths in 2018, and 0.16 deaths in 1Q 2019.

In other words, if Tesla fire safety is average, there will have been 1.19 total fire deaths from 2016 through 1Q 2019. How many Tesla fire deaths have their been?[/quote]

A lot more than 1.19.  At the time of the writing (April 2019), there were at least 5 fire-related deaths in Tesla vehicles from 2016 through Q1 2019.

sherr

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #194 on: June 17, 2020, 11:26:27 AM »
Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

Tesla is not an honest company.

https://twitter.com/MidwestHedgie/status/1120763087139811328

Quote
Tesla averaged roughly 370k cars "on the road" in any given month in 2018, and had 530k cars on the road to begin 2019. Thus, if Tesla were an average car, we would have expected 0.23 Tesla fire deaths in 2016, 0.35 in 2017, 0.45 deaths in 2018, and 0.16 deaths in 1Q 2019.

In other words, if Tesla fire safety is average, there will have been 1.19 total fire deaths from 2016 through 1Q 2019. How many Tesla fire deaths have their been?

A lot more than 1.19.  At the time of the writing (April 2019), there were at least 5 fire-related deaths in Tesla vehicles from 2016 through Q1 2019.

Okay, I was curious, so let's continue with the last year and a half of US sales data.

530k Teslas on the road at the beginning of 2019, so there would have been about 578k Telsas on the road on average in 2019Q2, so an extra 0.18 expected deaths.
And around 631k Teslas in 2019Q3, so an extra 0.19 expected deaths.
And around 685k Teslas in 2019Q4, so an extra 0.21 expected deaths.
And they don't have US sales for 2020, but lets say there haven't been any at all, and it's just the previous total of 722k Teslas for past 6 months for an extra 0.45 expected deaths.

We're now up to a total of 2.22 expected deaths, and there still (as far as I can tell) have only been 5, those same 4 incidents. And none in over a year. Which yes, is about two times worse. But at the same time the numbers are only half as bad as they were a year ago, which is why you can't really extrapolate from such a small sample size. Let's see what the numbers are in 5 years.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 11:36:37 AM by sherr »

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #195 on: June 17, 2020, 11:57:46 AM »
Why deaths?  Why not just fires?  Isn’t that more related to the claims made?

sherr

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #196 on: June 17, 2020, 12:04:00 PM »
Why deaths?  Why not just fires?  Isn’t that more related to the claims made?

Yes, but the twitter guy argues that deaths are actually more relevant to "safety" than fires are, because who cares if the car catches fire in a parking lot and insurance replaces it. Which I buy to an extent, although it sure would be nice to not have a car of any stripe catch on fire in my garage.

And while I'm sure Tesla didn't just pull the "11x less likely to catch on fire" figure out of thin air, it also seems unlike to me that they would be 11x less likely to catch on fire AND 2x more likely to kill you. So they are at least loosely related.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #197 on: June 17, 2020, 12:18:56 PM »
Not to deepen the rabbit hole to much more here but all this is about "death by fire" and not "death" in general? 

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #198 on: June 17, 2020, 12:22:09 PM »
Why deaths?  Why not just fires?  Isn’t that more related to the claims made?

Yes, but the twitter guy argues that deaths are actually more relevant to "safety" than fires are, because who cares if the car catches fire in a parking lot and insurance replaces it. Which I buy to an extent, although it sure would be nice to not have a car of any stripe catch on fire in my garage.

And while I'm sure Tesla didn't just pull the "11x less likely to catch on fire" figure out of thin air, it also seems unlike to me that they would be 11x less likely to catch on fire AND 2x more likely to kill you. So they are at least loosely related.

Completely unscientifically, it would strike me as likely an ICE car rarely catches fire sitting in a garage turned off, but if a Tesla was sitting there charging in a garage it would be more likely (could be near-zero, but still more likely) to catch fire than an ICE car not charging.

Wouldn’t stop me from getting a Tesla, I still really want one, but the fact pattern doesn’t really make sense. And agree, my primary concern is my car not catching fire in my garage and taking my whole house, to say nothing of the occupants, with it.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #199 on: June 17, 2020, 12:30:18 PM »
Why deaths?  Why not just fires?  Isn’t that more related to the claims made?

Yes, but the twitter guy argues that deaths are actually more relevant to "safety" than fires are, because who cares if the car catches fire in a parking lot and insurance replaces it. Which I buy to an extent, although it sure would be nice to not have a car of any stripe catch on fire in my garage.

And while I'm sure Tesla didn't just pull the "11x less likely to catch on fire" figure out of thin air, it also seems unlike to me that they would be 11x less likely to catch on fire AND 2x more likely to kill you. So they are at least loosely related.

Completely unscientifically, it would strike me as likely an ICE car rarely catches fire sitting in a garage turned off, but if a Tesla was sitting there charging in a garage it would be more likely (could be near-zero, but still more likely) to catch fire than an ICE car not charging.

Wouldn’t stop me from getting a Tesla, I still really want one, but the fact pattern doesn’t really make sense. And agree, my primary concern is my car not catching fire in my garage and taking my whole house, to say nothing of the occupants, with it.

Also anacdotal, but I've known two people who's ICE vehicle has caught on fire while parked in a garage turned off. 
One was my roommate in college, who got woken up by the police on a Sunday morning with the question "is that your car on fire across the street?"  - he hadn't driven it about 12 hours.

Seems faulty electrical systems causes this to happen enough where it's not entirely rare.  It seems most brands go through some sort of recall after some of their vehicles catch fire, ofen while parked.  A few (Kia, Hyundai) have even advised owners of certain models NOT to park them in garages due to the danger of collateral damage from their car spontanously combusting.


https://abc7chicago.com/bmw-car-fires-vehicle-what-causes-per-year/5121834/
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/investigators/2020/03/02/if-you-own-one-of-these-cars-vans-or-suvs-dont-park-them-in-a-garage-automaker-says/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/engine-fires-linked-to-46m-recalled-fords/
https://www.carrcarr.com/recall-millions-of-ford-vehicles-due-to-potential-fire-risk/