Author Topic: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?  (Read 552831 times)

AlanStache

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #700 on: July 08, 2021, 10:06:11 AM »
...

I do love puns. But yeah in the previous discussion, we were replacing all privately owned vehicles with a software-driven service that could ban people for spilling a coke. You mentioned Facebook having a "three strikes" model for kicking people off their service. I thought my exploration of the analogy was pretty straight forward from there. Private cars = private web sites. Corporate/autonomous taxi fleets = Facebook.


Ok, see that now.  I have not really seen anyone get banned from FB/etc so that was not central in my mind, have only known a few people who have got time outs and it was reasonably warranted.   

I am currently banned from a few rental car companies (issue was with one and my name got shared with others under the same umbral corp), while it has on a few occasions been a minor inconvenience it has not been life altering.  (The banning stemmed from a difference about the definition of "could", rental car company intended it more as "must" were I heard it more as "optional"... yeah am an engineer - software at that.)

"I also think that it's important to remember that the goal here is not to simply match what humans are capable of, it's to exceed it. If autonomous driving tech doesn't handle poor situations better than humans do then it's not going to save lives as intended."
But even with current capabilities and only applied to nice weathered highway driving it still would save lives.  The cost/benefit of this may not be worth it but the tech is getting better and expanding what conditions it works within.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2021, 10:29:21 AM by AlanStache »

Chaplin

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #701 on: July 08, 2021, 10:28:11 AM »
Yes, Paper Chaser, I believe autosteer/autopilot won't engage without lane markings, but as the video shows it will stay on if the lane markings disappear. That accident was terrible. It looks a lot like a case of "watch what happens when I step on it" though. I suspect it was impossible that Autopilot was on because in that location Autopilot wouldn't reach the speeds they appear to have been going because of the short distance to accelerate (AP is pretty gentle with the throttle) and by how much it will allow itself to exceed the speed limit. Is there a final report out on it yet?

Crap, I just fell in the trap of continuing to contribute to the autonomy discussion in this thread. I apologize. Perhaps it's because boarder42 is correct here:

The reason this thread is going that way is bc ev adoption is no longer really speculative. It's basically here. People are adopting EVs and they will out sell ice in the near future if for no other reason than there won't be another option anymore. Look at the adoption curves posted earlier for tech 2022 is the beginning of that sharp incline. We just need battery production to scale. The Ford mustang ev already outsells the ice mustang.

Meaning that the OP question is sort-of already answered - yes, EVs are already on the S-shaped adoption curve (which might be less steep than some other tech items due being a substitute item versus a new category), perhaps at the point where the slow early-adoption is starting to give way to the fast ramp from 20 to 80% (even though EVs are still around 2% of new sales in the US as a whole). Sentiment and intentions are there but as "durable" goods, the car fleet turns over slowly.

neo von retorch

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #702 on: July 08, 2021, 10:37:04 AM »
Crap, I just fell in the trap of continuing to contribute to the autonomy discussion in this thread. I apologize.

It was stupid of me to try to make decisions for every member of the thread. Each of you should continue to own your own personal preference for what gets contributed to this thread. If it crosses any lines, we'll be OK.

simonsez

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #703 on: July 08, 2021, 12:18:38 PM »
Crap, I just fell in the trap of continuing to contribute to the autonomy discussion in this thread. I apologize.

It was stupid of me to try to make decisions for every member of the thread. Each of you should continue to own your own personal preference for what gets contributed to this thread. If it crosses any lines, we'll be OK.
I feel the autonomous nature as well as the autonomous car-sharing nature do go part and parcel with electric vehicles overall for several reasons.

For instance, EVs are an available technology now that will eventually be the majority of new cars sold.  If there is talk of autonomous and what that might look like in a car-sharing world, depending on the gap (from EVs being ubiquitous to autonomous EVs being ubiquitous) there could be fear that the fancy new EV you purchase now might be obsolete on a shorter timeframe.

It's like buying a desktop in the early/mid 90s - things were changing so fast that if you waited 6 months, you could get a much better model that would take longer before it was obsolete.

Another reason (or myriad inter-related topics) that has been referenced numerous times already is the default infrastructure of our dense areas moving forward.  Gasoline taxes pay for road infrastructure (and yes, rural infrastructure is often subsidized by urban taxpayers to an extent).  As more ICE vehicles are replaced by EVs, that source of tax revenue either needs to come from somewhere else (or a new source, e.g. charging EV owners a premium on the electricity used for their EV, assuming that's feasible) and/or a fundamental shift in how our tax dollars are earmarked.  Yes, there will likely be a slowly-shrinking-over-time non-zero proportion of vehicle users that are willing to pay for the privilege of private vehicle ownership but for many commuting in cities, I do think there is a lot to be said for car-sharing and better public transit options that reduce the need for construction of new and augmented roads.  Privately-owned non-autonomous EVs simply replacing privately-owned non-autonomous ICEs might not be enough to change how cities are constructed but if we're talking autonomous EVs and that in dense areas most vehicles are shared fleet vehicles, then that absolutely changes the priorities for building roads and the associated infrastructure.

Humans like convenience and will pay handsomely for it (I expect not only charging stations but battery swapping stations to be commonplace - why take 20 min to charge up to a certain % when you could pay right now for a 100% charged battery?!).  So, I am interested to see how everything plays out with the autonomous and car-sharing aspects which is all under the EV umbrella.

I could also see main-use commuter roads being fully autonomous (and required to be autonomous) just like there are roads that are HOV-only now.  I remember when I lived in NoVa that I-66 East was HOV-only within the Beltway.  If you were in a vehicle by yourself, that road just wasn't available to you.  Certain roads might be mixed-use (autonomous and non-) and others the conditions might dictate that autonomous driving NOT be used.  The point is obstacles like construction, painted lines, etc. aren't an all-or-nothing approach with autonomous vehicles.  If we can solve those problems on the "easy roads" but can't on some more rural difficult roads, that doesn't mean we abandon the entire autonomous direction simply because it's not feasible on 100% of all roads.  That's absurd.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #704 on: July 08, 2021, 12:49:55 PM »
Crap, I just fell in the trap of continuing to contribute to the autonomy discussion in this thread. I apologize.

It was stupid of me to try to make decisions for every member of the thread. Each of you should continue to own your own personal preference for what gets contributed to this thread. If it crosses any lines, we'll be OK.

Given the recent discussion about white lines on the pavement, was that "crosses any lines" phrase intentional.  At any rate I got a chuckle.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #705 on: July 08, 2021, 02:09:26 PM »
Crap, I just fell in the trap of continuing to contribute to the autonomy discussion in this thread. I apologize.

It was stupid of me to try to make decisions for every member of the thread. Each of you should continue to own your own personal preference for what gets contributed to this thread. If it crosses any lines, we'll be OK.
I feel the autonomous nature as well as the autonomous car-sharing nature do go part and parcel with electric vehicles overall for several reasons.

For instance, EVs are an available technology now that will eventually be the majority of new cars sold.  If there is talk of autonomous and what that might look like in a car-sharing world, depending on the gap (from EVs being ubiquitous to autonomous EVs being ubiquitous) there could be fear that the fancy new EV you purchase now might be obsolete on a shorter timeframe.

It's like buying a desktop in the early/mid 90s - things were changing so fast that if you waited 6 months, you could get a much better model that would take longer before it was obsolete.

Another reason (or myriad inter-related topics) that has been referenced numerous times already is the default infrastructure of our dense areas moving forward.  Gasoline taxes pay for road infrastructure (and yes, rural infrastructure is often subsidized by urban taxpayers to an extent).  As more ICE vehicles are replaced by EVs, that source of tax revenue either needs to come from somewhere else (or a new source, e.g. charging EV owners a premium on the electricity used for their EV, assuming that's feasible) and/or a fundamental shift in how our tax dollars are earmarked.  Yes, there will likely be a slowly-shrinking-over-time non-zero proportion of vehicle users that are willing to pay for the privilege of private vehicle ownership but for many commuting in cities, I do think there is a lot to be said for car-sharing and better public transit options that reduce the need for construction of new and augmented roads.  Privately-owned non-autonomous EVs simply replacing privately-owned non-autonomous ICEs might not be enough to change how cities are constructed but if we're talking autonomous EVs and that in dense areas most vehicles are shared fleet vehicles, then that absolutely changes the priorities for building roads and the associated infrastructure.

Humans like convenience and will pay handsomely for it (I expect not only charging stations but battery swapping stations to be commonplace - why take 20 min to charge up to a certain % when you could pay right now for a 100% charged battery?!).  So, I am interested to see how everything plays out with the autonomous and car-sharing aspects which is all under the EV umbrella.

I could also see main-use commuter roads being fully autonomous (and required to be autonomous) just like there are roads that are HOV-only now.  I remember when I lived in NoVa that I-66 East was HOV-only within the Beltway.  If you were in a vehicle by yourself, that road just wasn't available to you.  Certain roads might be mixed-use (autonomous and non-) and others the conditions might dictate that autonomous driving NOT be used.  The point is obstacles like construction, painted lines, etc. aren't an all-or-nothing approach with autonomous vehicles.  If we can solve those problems on the "easy roads" but can't on some more rural difficult roads, that doesn't mean we abandon the entire autonomous direction simply because it's not feasible on 100% of all roads.  That's absurd.

Fuel taxes are being replaced by flat fees for EV owners when paying for annual registration in many states. They can be a couple hundred bucks per year in some cases, which can really offset most or all of the cost savings from not buying fuel.

Tesla had a battery swapping station available to the public in CA and closed it down due to lack of use. The battery is the most expensive and critical part of an EV, and they can breakdown or wear out over time. Nobody wants to play roulette and risk getting a battery that's in worse condition than the one they already have. It would be like doing random engine swaps in an ICE. Another thing is that EV batteries are hardly standardized, even within a specific automaker, so you'd have to have unique battery swap locations with a number of different batteries on hand and the capability to swap them all. It's getting easier and cheaper all the time to just shove electrons in really quickly.

I don't think any of the autonomy naysayers (my self being one of the most vocal in the recent conversation) are saying that autonomy can't be a good and useful thing at some point in some places. I think some of the timelines given are wildly optimistic, and I find the notion that it will improve more than aspects than just safety to be doubtful. I also see tons of issues with widespread robo taxi services (both logistical, and financial). That being said, I think it's almost a certainty that autonomy will be geo-fenced to specific well controlled, ideal locations first (see Waymo's current testing in AZ, or Cruise in the Bay Area) and then it may expand from there. Or it may not. Companies may decide that servicing less populous areas with more obstacles isn't worth the cost and time.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #706 on: July 08, 2021, 03:14:38 PM »
The irony is that places that are best suited for autonomous cars (dense cities) are going to be even better off with virtually no cars. Sweet spot for full driverless seems to be denser suburbia. Which is fine, a lot of people live there.

There is nothing wrong with cars and roads co-evolving together. I'm not optimistic, though - it would require standards, and we can't even have a single standard for an EV plug...

Re: people being resistant to sharing cars... not a barrier for Lyft and Uber, where every rider gets into a shared car. Or traditional taxis, for that matter. Sure, there will be holdouts - but there is no reason to speculate, we have the answer, and it is that most people are fine with ridesharing.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2021, 03:20:51 PM by GodlessCommie »

simonsez

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #707 on: July 08, 2021, 03:16:18 PM »
@Paper Chaser

Oh I have no doubt that new tax revenue sources can't be found, just that if there is a societal/governmental desire for the vehicles to transition from ICE to EV, you subsidize that somehow at least until you have enough momentum/acceptance.  I'm not worried about upper class or upper middle class people finding ways to come up with some extra registration money to pay for their brand new shiny EV - I'm worried about mass acceptance of EVs on the lower rungs of the income/wealth ladder.  If you have upfront fees that are relatively large in size compared to getting nickel and dimed for each gallon of gasoline, I'd guess that poorer would just keep the ICE as such a proportion live paycheck to paycheck.  I.e. Paying $30 instead of $25 on your of gas might not make or break you all at once but car registration going up by hundreds of dollars very well could.

Heck, if we had European prices on gasoline now, I'd be confident that a majority of vehicles would be EVs within a greatly accelerated timeframe although the poor would still be hampered the most with the transition.

Battery swapping is just an idea that in my head sounds good as I take lots of long road trips and I'm a big fan of minimizing the non-driving time on stops.  I have no idea if that's feasible in any kind of widespread fashion.  You say "nobody" would take the risk but I'm not so sure if one failed experiment is all there is to this especially before we have widespread EV adoption.  I have no problem swapping out propane tanks (although my dad is weird and only uses his tank and goes through the rigmarole to have his specific vessel filled when it is empty).  It is the fuel supply to my grill and some back patio furniture.  I don't care which specific propane tank it comes from.  I don't see why technology couldn't exist at these swapping stations that would effectively guarantee a good battery (much like if you buy a full propane tank with a functioning nozzle, there's not much else to it).  Sure it might be a little more complicated than exchanging propane tanks but I could see it.  I wouldn't compare it to engine swapping with an ICE vehicle at all - why not compare it to a battery swap as ICE vehicles already have this?  Much more things can go wrong on an ICE vehicle that aren't related to the battery, no?  Yes, standardization of EV batteries is likely to increase moving forward but even if not, there could be brand-specific stations just like there are now with gasoline or other indicators of quality (like Top Tier detergent gasoline brands).  Of course, battery swapping might never become a thing at all.  We shall see.

Yep, agree on the geo-fencing and robotaxis.  No way would I feel comfortable with my wife getting in a robotaxi with strangers by herself and vice versa as taxis are currently setup.  Being in/on a vehicle by yourself or with a large group on public transit is safer.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #708 on: July 08, 2021, 03:24:03 PM »
That being said, I think it's almost a certainty that autonomy will be geo-fenced to specific well controlled, ideal locations first (see Waymo's current testing in AZ, or Cruise in the Bay Area) and then it may expand from there. Or it may not. Companies may decide that servicing less populous areas with more obstacles isn't worth the cost and time.

Electric scooters are a good analogy. They started in several best areas, had growing pains, then started expanding more and more. They will never appear on rural roads, which is totally fine for scooter companies, and for people driving on those rural roads.

Chris22

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #709 on: July 08, 2021, 03:38:19 PM »
The irony is that places that are best suited for autonomous cars (dense cities) are going to be even better off with virtually no cars. Sweet spot for full driverless seems to be denser suburbia. Which is fine, a lot of people live there.

There is nothing wrong with cars and roads co-evolving together. I'm not optimistic, though - it would require standards, and we can't even have a single standard for an EV plug...

Re: people being resistant to sharing cars... not a barrier for Lyft and Uber, where every rider gets into a shared car. Or traditional taxis, for that matter. Sure, there will be holdouts - but there is no reason to speculate, we have the answer, and it is that most people are fine with ridesharing.

1. Uber/Lyft cars have a human driver so “supervision” leading to better behavior, drivers holding riders accountable, and can clean up messes when they do occur

2.  How many people replace their cars with Uber/Lyft full time?  Maybe common on this board, but in general very few. Most people use U/L as a supplement, like for a designated driver, when traveling, or to airports etc. Not as many replace cars. I have 3 cars and I’m still a not infrequent U/L user.

gooki

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #710 on: July 08, 2021, 04:55:41 PM »

Why do you believe autonomous cars need painted lines to operate?

Because they all currently do?

And that's not going to evolve in the near future?

Here's an electric car in self driving mode with human oversight on a dirt road with no lane markings at night keeping to the right and avoiding obstacles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWJoe8hwu_I

 

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #711 on: July 08, 2021, 07:39:36 PM »

Why do you believe autonomous cars need painted lines to operate?

Because they all currently do?

And that's not going to evolve in the near future?

Here's an electric car in self driving mode with human oversight on a dirt road with no lane markings at night keeping to the right and avoiding obstacles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWJoe8hwu_I

Sure, things can change. I'm obviously more doubtful about that than your are. I don't want this to exclusively become a Tesla Autopilot thread. As you might guess I have some concerns about their tech and the way that it's being tested, developed, and marketed but I won't expand more to prevent any further straying from the original topic. The last thing that I will say specifically about Autopilot, is that for every impressive video that I see of their tech, I can find concerning ones too. Here's the same FSD Beta as your nighttime dirt road repeatedly struggling with left hand turns in broad daylight, on well marked streets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uClWlVCwHsI

This one is in Tesla's back yard: "In this test we unfortunately encounter multiple near collision interventions"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IUn2mDE-xo

Fortunately, the US regulators will soon be requiring more transparency from autonomous vehicle testers about traffic accidents. That might give some unbiased insight about who is excelling or struggling with this tech and share some data about where exactly they're struggling.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/06/29/nhtsa-safety-reporting-autopilot/

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #712 on: July 08, 2021, 07:56:49 PM »
@Paper Chaser

Oh I have no doubt that new tax revenue sources can't be found, just that if there is a societal/governmental desire for the vehicles to transition from ICE to EV, you subsidize that somehow at least until you have enough momentum/acceptance.  I'm not worried about upper class or upper middle class people finding ways to come up with some extra registration money to pay for their brand new shiny EV - I'm worried about mass acceptance of EVs on the lower rungs of the income/wealth ladder.  If you have upfront fees that are relatively large in size compared to getting nickel and dimed for each gallon of gasoline, I'd guess that poorer would just keep the ICE as such a proportion live paycheck to paycheck.  I.e. Paying $30 instead of $25 on your of gas might not make or break you all at once but car registration going up by hundreds of dollars very well could.

Yep. EVs could be a game changer for the poor due to drastically reduced maintenance and potentially cheaper fueling (charging). But to make the most sense they have to be able to charge them where they live (most poor rent, so charging infrastructure may be out of their hands) they have to be able to afford to purchase and register them (likely on the lower end of the used market), and they'll have to have a decent amount of usable life left in them by the time the 3rd or 4th owners get a hold of them. I'm bullish on battery life, but who knows how long it might take to be in financial reach of the poor or how many miles will remain, or how much longer the software for those vehicles will be serviced. If you can get cheap 5-7 year old EVs with several years of life left that would potentially be great for the poor, but we'll see what actually happens.

Heck, if we had European prices on gasoline now, I'd be confident that a majority of vehicles would be EVs within a greatly accelerated timeframe although the poor would still be hampered the most with the transition.
Maybe. Cost /kwh is only now reaching a point where it makes financial sense for the legacy automakers to really pursue EVs. But they could certainly do hybrid versions of existing vehicles easily, and likely have a larger environmental impact.

Battery swapping is just an idea that in my head sounds good as I take lots of long road trips and I'm a big fan of minimizing the non-driving time on stops.  I have no idea if that's feasible in any kind of widespread fashion.  You say "nobody" would take the risk but I'm not so sure if one failed experiment is all there is to this especially before we have widespread EV adoption.  I have no problem swapping out propane tanks (although my dad is weird and only uses his tank and goes through the rigmarole to have his specific vessel filled when it is empty).  It is the fuel supply to my grill and some back patio furniture.  I don't care which specific propane tank it comes from.  I don't see why technology couldn't exist at these swapping stations that would effectively guarantee a good battery (much like if you buy a full propane tank with a functioning nozzle, there's not much else to it).  Sure it might be a little more complicated than exchanging propane tanks but I could see it.  I wouldn't compare it to engine swapping with an ICE vehicle at all - why not compare it to a battery swap as ICE vehicles already have this?  Much more things can go wrong on an ICE vehicle that aren't related to the battery, no?  Yes, standardization of EV batteries is likely to increase moving forward but even if not, there could be brand-specific stations just like there are now with gasoline or other indicators of quality (like Top Tier detergent gasoline brands).  Of course, battery swapping might never become a thing at all.  We shall see.

I don't think comparing an EV battery pack to a gas grill tank or the 12v battery in an ICE vehicle holds up because those things are a fairly small fraction of the overall cost of the vehicle so taking on the risk of getting a dud is less critical. You can gamble with a $20 propane tank in a $500 grill or a $150 battery in a $10k used car. But taking risks with a $15-20k battery in a $40-50k EV is much higher stakes.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #713 on: July 08, 2021, 08:37:51 PM »
It was stated that paying for the roads will be done by the driver's registration of the electric vehicle.  This means that those who drive little are paying as much as daily drivers.  This differs from the existing system where the roads are largely paid on the fuel tax.  Is there a possibility of requiring a separate meter for vehicle charged in homes?  The rate for kilowatt hours on this separate meter would be a little more to cover the tax for roads.  Those who rarely drive would not then be penalized.  Heavier vehicles would cause more road wear.  Heavier vehicles would also use more electricity and pay more tax as they do now for fuel.

Meters used for charging at remote locations would have the road tax added to the charging cost and added to the customer's bill.

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #714 on: July 08, 2021, 08:43:16 PM »
It was stated that paying for the roads will be done by the driver's registration of the electric vehicle.  This means that those who drive little are paying as much as daily drivers.  This differs from the existing system where the roads are largely paid on the fuel tax.  Is there a possibility of requiring a separate meter for vehicle charged in homes?  The rate for kilowatt hours on this separate meter would be a little more to cover the tax for roads.  Those who rarely drive would not then be penalized.  Heavier vehicles would cause more road wear.  Heavier vehicles would also use more electricity and pay more tax as they do now for fuel.

Meters used for charging at remote locations would have the road tax added to the charging cost and added to the customer's bill.

There should just be a tax on total miles driven IMO.   I have solar and haven't paid for power in three months, despite having an EV.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #715 on: July 09, 2021, 06:53:08 AM »
It was stated that paying for the roads will be done by the driver's registration of the electric vehicle.  This means that those who drive little are paying as much as daily drivers.  This differs from the existing system where the roads are largely paid on the fuel tax.  Is there a possibility of requiring a separate meter for vehicle charged in homes?  The rate for kilowatt hours on this separate meter would be a little more to cover the tax for roads.  Those who rarely drive would not then be penalized.  Heavier vehicles would cause more road wear.  Heavier vehicles would also use more electricity and pay more tax as they do now for fuel.

Meters used for charging at remote locations would have the road tax added to the charging cost and added to the customer's bill.

There should just be a tax on total miles driven IMO.   I have solar and haven't paid for power in three months, despite having an EV.

That's kind of impressive.  I guess Solar is indeed becoming more than a SCAM. 

boarder42

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #716 on: July 09, 2021, 09:14:44 AM »
It was stated that paying for the roads will be done by the driver's registration of the electric vehicle.  This means that those who drive little are paying as much as daily drivers.  This differs from the existing system where the roads are largely paid on the fuel tax.  Is there a possibility of requiring a separate meter for vehicle charged in homes?  The rate for kilowatt hours on this separate meter would be a little more to cover the tax for roads.  Those who rarely drive would not then be penalized.  Heavier vehicles would cause more road wear.  Heavier vehicles would also use more electricity and pay more tax as they do now for fuel.

Meters used for charging at remote locations would have the road tax added to the charging cost and added to the customer's bill.

There should just be a tax on total miles driven IMO.   I have solar and haven't paid for power in three months, despite having an EV.

That's kind of impressive.  I guess Solar is indeed becoming more than a SCAM.

Solar a scam?  Currently the cheapest fastest roi power production investment.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2021, 10:56:07 AM by boarder42 »

AlanStache

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #717 on: July 09, 2021, 09:59:46 AM »
...
2.  How many people replace their cars with Uber/Lyft full time?  Maybe common on this board, but in general very few. Most people use U/L as a supplement, like for a designated driver, when traveling, or to airports etc. Not as many replace cars. I have 3 cars and I’m still a not infrequent U/L user.

There are currently car services that function as app based on demand rental services with various types of cars and trucks parked around urban centers.  These are cars you would drive yourself and use for an hour or a few days and return the a designated parking spot.  Watched a youtube video of a coupe that lives in an urban area that do not own a car and use this service when the 'need' a vehicle.  They said they spend ~200$ per month on it, while more than you might spend if you had a cheep car that could be stored for free in your driveway it is economical for city dwellers who can otherwise walk/metro most places. 

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #718 on: July 09, 2021, 12:06:58 PM »
1. Uber/Lyft cars have a human driver so “supervision” leading to better behavior, drivers holding riders accountable, and can clean up messes when they do occur

2.  How many people replace their cars with Uber/Lyft full time?  Maybe common on this board, but in general very few. Most people use U/L as a supplement, like for a designated driver, when traveling, or to airports etc. Not as many replace cars. I have 3 cars and I’m still a not infrequent U/L user.

I sincerely doubt that human drivers clean up after farts, which are a common complain among autonomy detractors in this thread. Then there is ZipCar, Car2Go, and the like, where there is no human supervision at all.

Lyft/Uber have human drivers that need to be paid. Autonomous cars are expected to be cheaper. If (and it's a big if in my mind) this promise is fulfilled, the economic incentive to switch will be stronger.

All that aside, I'm not arguing for autonomous cars taking over the world. I'm rather a skeptic. I addressed a narrow and specific question: are people resistant to sharing cars with other people. All the examples from the real world - rental cars, taxis, ZipCar, Lyft/Uber - lead me to a conclusion that no, they are not.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #719 on: July 09, 2021, 07:15:31 PM »
All that aside, I'm not arguing for autonomous cars taking over the world. I'm rather a skeptic. I addressed a narrow and specific question: are people resistant to sharing cars with other people. All the examples from the real world - rental cars, taxis, ZipCar, Lyft/Uber - lead me to a conclusion that no, they are not.

Just to clarify, anytime that I've mentioned people disliking sharing a vehicle with others, I was referring to situations like carpools or mass transit where you're actually sharing the same vehicle at the same time with others. Those types of changes, where fewer people are traveling alone, are the only way that autonomous vehicles can really improve anything significant environmentally speaking. It's the only way that overall miles driven are likely to decrease. And human operated mass transit and carpools have been around for 100 years now without getting much of a foothold. We could've theoretically reduced total miles driven at anypoint in the last century by emphasizing them and it just hasn't happened. Emphasizing them moving forward doesn't necessarily have to involve autonomy either. It requires a change in public attitudes, not necessarily a change in what's piloting the vehicles.

If we just take human drivers out of taxis or personal vehicles (replaced by software) and then continue to operate them as we currently do, I don't see much benefit other than potential safety improvements. That's not to downplay the importance of safety at all. If autonomy delivers only on the safety claims, and isn't cheaper or better for the environment, it may still be worthwhile. I'm just saying that I'm highly skeptical of claims that autonomous taxis will be wide spread, and/or cheaper, and/or more convenient, and/or better for the environment than what we're currently doing. People aren't going to suddenly be more likely to take a carpool (or mass transit) that's operated by software than they are to take a human driven carpool (or mass transit )because most of the same annoyances are present regardless of what's controlling the vehicle. People aren't going to hail an autonomous taxi more often than they hail a regular taxi unless it's more convenient (which probably requires more total vehicles to be stationed all over) or cheaper (I'm clearly a skeptic on this claim, but time may reveal if I'm correct or not).
« Last Edit: July 09, 2021, 07:20:54 PM by Paper Chaser »

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #720 on: July 09, 2021, 07:46:58 PM »
Seems relevant…

Stellantis is planning on spending $35B (USD Equivalent) on EVs over the next 3 years, and all nine lines will release EVs in North America in this time frame. 

If we keep adding all these billions up, pretty soon it’s going to be some real money towards EVs…

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #721 on: July 09, 2021, 09:02:52 PM »
Seems relevant…

Stellantis is planning on spending $35B (USD Equivalent) on EVs over the next 3 years, and all nine lines will release EVs in North America in this time frame. 

If we keep adding all these billions up, pretty soon it’s going to be some real money towards EVs…

If Everett Dirksen were still around, he would certainly agree.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #722 on: July 09, 2021, 09:43:40 PM »
Traded in a 2010 Prius today and upgraded to a 2017 Bolt EV with 27k miles on it (formerly leased vehicle). Out the door for ~$16k.

gooki

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #723 on: July 10, 2021, 12:17:21 AM »
Quote
Battery swapping is just an idea that in my head sounds good as I take lots of long road trips and I'm a big fan of minimizing the non-driving time on stops.  I have no idea if that's feasible in any kind of widespread fashion.  You say "nobody" would take the risk but I'm not so sure if one failed experiment is all there is to this especially before we have widespread EV adoption.

Battery swapping is a valid solution and it's easy to work around the fears, the manufacturer simply guarantees the batteries. Any that are out of spec get removed from the pool, refurbished and the returned.

But for battery swapping to be a success it needs a few things.

- standardized pack size
- standardized cooling
- standardized wiring

Gogoro's swapping is scalable thanks to a standard pack and open format for other manufacturers to use.

Nio's less so because they don't have a standard pack between car models, let alone a standardized pack for other manufacturers to use.

« Last Edit: July 10, 2021, 01:59:48 AM by gooki »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #724 on: July 10, 2021, 11:21:38 PM »
There are currently car services that function as app based on demand rental services with various types of cars and trucks parked around urban centers. 
I could probably do that. Nowadays I only fill up 4 times a year. There's a point where it's cheaper not to own a car.

gaja

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #725 on: July 11, 2021, 02:55:21 AM »
Battery swapping has failed several times: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place_(company)

Renault long insisted that their batteries could only be leased. They hardly sold a single ev in Norway before the policy was changed. And since this was at the time where Norway had a substantial part of the evs in the world, it did hurt their overall sales to ignore customer preferences.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #726 on: July 11, 2021, 10:41:17 AM »
Battery swapping has failed several times: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place_(company)

Renault long insisted that their batteries could only be leased. They hardly sold a single ev in Norway before the policy was changed. And since this was at the time where Norway had a substantial part of the evs in the world, it did hurt their overall sales to ignore customer preferences.

Cut and try until it fits.  Maybe the time and technology just hasn't got it right yet.  It doesn't seem to be rocket science.

I see people having the same attitude about nuclear power.  They say, "Oh!  There have been some problems.  Let's just give up."

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #727 on: July 11, 2021, 11:07:38 AM »
Battery swapping has failed several times: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place_(company)

Renault long insisted that their batteries could only be leased. They hardly sold a single ev in Norway before the policy was changed. And since this was at the time where Norway had a substantial part of the evs in the world, it did hurt their overall sales to ignore customer preferences.

Cut and try until it fits.  Maybe the time and technology just hasn't got it right yet.  It doesn't seem to be rocket science.

I see people having the same attitude about nuclear power.  They say, "Oh!  There have been some problems.  Let's just give up."

Ultimately I keep wondering what problem battery swapping would really solve.

Ask a group of people who do not own an EV what their major concerns are about the current state of technology, and range anxiety & speed of recharging are near the top of that list

But ask those who currently drive EVs and those issues aren’t that big a deal. For most, they are such infrequent edge cases which are easily adjusted for (and which keep getting easier) that it’s not a concern. With 300+ mile ranges and an emerging network of chargers (some of which include 80A and DCFCs) those edge cases become more extreme each year.

I’m just not sure why or how battery swapping would be desirable to an EV owner.  I could see it making sense for commercial vehicles (particularly autonomous ones that might operate 22+ hours/day), but not for your everyday family car that gets topped up nightly.

ketchup

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #728 on: July 11, 2021, 11:28:27 AM »
Battery swapping has failed several times: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place_(company)

Renault long insisted that their batteries could only be leased. They hardly sold a single ev in Norway before the policy was changed. And since this was at the time where Norway had a substantial part of the evs in the world, it did hurt their overall sales to ignore customer preferences.

Cut and try until it fits.  Maybe the time and technology just hasn't got it right yet.  It doesn't seem to be rocket science.

I see people having the same attitude about nuclear power.  They say, "Oh!  There have been some problems.  Let's just give up."

Ultimately I keep wondering what problem battery swapping would really solve.

Ask a group of people who do not own an EV what their major concerns are about the current state of technology, and range anxiety & speed of recharging are near the top of that list

But ask those who currently drive EVs and those issues aren’t that big a deal. For most, they are such infrequent edge cases which are easily adjusted for (and which keep getting easier) that it’s not a concern. With 300+ mile ranges and an emerging network of chargers (some of which include 80A and DCFCs) those edge cases become more extreme each year.

I’m just not sure why or how battery swapping would be desirable to an EV owner.  I could see it making sense for commercial vehicles (particularly autonomous ones that might operate 22+ hours/day), but not for your everyday family car that gets topped up nightly.
It would be desirable for me, someone that does 400+ mile round trip drives about twice a month on average, often parked for less than half an hour at my destination before turning around to head home.  That desire goes away with DCFCs combined with the charging speed of cars like the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5 that can charge to 80% in 18 minutes.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #729 on: July 11, 2021, 12:06:54 PM »
Battery swapping has failed several times: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place_(company)

Renault long insisted that their batteries could only be leased. They hardly sold a single ev in Norway before the policy was changed. And since this was at the time where Norway had a substantial part of the evs in the world, it did hurt their overall sales to ignore customer preferences.

Cut and try until it fits.  Maybe the time and technology just hasn't got it right yet.  It doesn't seem to be rocket science.

I see people having the same attitude about nuclear power.  They say, "Oh!  There have been some problems.  Let's just give up."

Ultimately I keep wondering what problem battery swapping would really solve.

Ask a group of people who do not own an EV what their major concerns are about the current state of technology, and range anxiety & speed of recharging are near the top of that list

But ask those who currently drive EVs and those issues aren’t that big a deal. For most, they are such infrequent edge cases which are easily adjusted for (and which keep getting easier) that it’s not a concern. With 300+ mile ranges and an emerging network of chargers (some of which include 80A and DCFCs) those edge cases become more extreme each year.

I’m just not sure why or how battery swapping would be desirable to an EV owner.  I could see it making sense for commercial vehicles (particularly autonomous ones that might operate 22+ hours/day), but not for your everyday family car that gets topped up nightly.

From a green perspective you could swap different sized batteries. Keep a 100-150 mile battery in your car for daily driving then swap to a 400-600 mile battery for road trips. As was pointed out before a lot of wasted raw materials sit in batteries since most people commute about 60mi RT a day.

On the flip side the need for battery swapping to kill range anxiety is on an exponential decreasing trend. The availability of level 3 fast chargers and the increasing size of batteries as well as decreasing charge times will make battery swapping irrelevant in the near futur e. Outside of the above stated case which no one will want to deal with that inconvenience.

But a battery swap business model with monthly fees could be a way to make this more affordable to the lower class. Car affordability for the middle and up isn't an issue they'll just stretch loans out to 10-15-20 years like they do for boats now to make it fit their cash flow equation.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2021, 12:09:47 PM by boarder42 »

Chaplin

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #730 on: July 11, 2021, 05:46:38 PM »
Battery swapping has failed several times: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place_(company)

Renault long insisted that their batteries could only be leased. They hardly sold a single ev in Norway before the policy was changed. And since this was at the time where Norway had a substantial part of the evs in the world, it did hurt their overall sales to ignore customer preferences.

Cut and try until it fits.  Maybe the time and technology just hasn't got it right yet.  It doesn't seem to be rocket science.

I see people having the same attitude about nuclear power.  They say, "Oh!  There have been some problems.  Let's just give up."

Ultimately I keep wondering what problem battery swapping would really solve.

Ask a group of people who do not own an EV what their major concerns are about the current state of technology, and range anxiety & speed of recharging are near the top of that list

But ask those who currently drive EVs and those issues aren’t that big a deal. For most, they are such infrequent edge cases which are easily adjusted for (and which keep getting easier) that it’s not a concern. With 300+ mile ranges and an emerging network of chargers (some of which include 80A and DCFCs) those edge cases become more extreme each year.

I’m just not sure why or how battery swapping would be desirable to an EV owner.  I could see it making sense for commercial vehicles (particularly autonomous ones that might operate 22+ hours/day), but not for your everyday family car that gets topped up nightly.

Exactly. Battery swapping solves a problem that non EV owners perceive but EV owners don't. There will be edge cases and exceptions of course but not enough, in my opinion, to make it worth the effort (and it would be a massive effort, so it would have to solve a massive problem).

Abe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #731 on: July 11, 2021, 07:08:20 PM »
I agree. Setting up a huge infrastructure just so people can save 30 minutes in a 8 hour car ride they do once or twice a year is silly.

scottish

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #732 on: July 11, 2021, 07:45:09 PM »
With battery swapping, isn't there also the problem that you could get a worn out battery that won't take a charge properly?

gooki

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #733 on: July 11, 2021, 08:00:10 PM »
With battery swapping, isn't there also the problem that you could get a worn out battery that won't take a charge properly?

A properly implemented system will remove any out of spec batteries from the pool.

neo von retorch

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #734 on: July 11, 2021, 08:17:41 PM »
I think that was touched on briefly in this thread, but if battery swapping was done, either you'd really only ever rent batteries, or if you swapped larger ones for trips, the original you owned would probably be returned when you swapped back. Buying a battery with your car and then swapping it in an exchange isn't really a likely scenario.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #735 on: July 12, 2021, 10:52:08 AM »
Just to clarify, anytime that I've mentioned people disliking sharing a vehicle with others, I was referring to situations like carpools or mass transit where you're actually sharing the same vehicle at the same time with others. Those types of changes, where fewer people are traveling alone, are the only way that autonomous vehicles can really improve anything significant environmentally speaking. It's the only way that overall miles driven are likely to decrease. And human operated mass transit and carpools have been around for 100 years now without getting much of a foothold. We could've theoretically reduced total miles driven at anypoint in the last century by emphasizing them and it just hasn't happened. Emphasizing them moving forward doesn't necessarily have to involve autonomy either. It requires a change in public attitudes, not necessarily a change in what's piloting the vehicles.

If we just take human drivers out of taxis or personal vehicles (replaced by software) and then continue to operate them as we currently do, I don't see much benefit other than potential safety improvements. That's not to downplay the importance of safety at all. If autonomy delivers only on the safety claims, and isn't cheaper or better for the environment, it may still be worthwhile. I'm just saying that I'm highly skeptical of claims that autonomous taxis will be wide spread, and/or cheaper, and/or more convenient, and/or better for the environment than what we're currently doing. People aren't going to suddenly be more likely to take a carpool (or mass transit) that's operated by software than they are to take a human driven carpool (or mass transit )because most of the same annoyances are present regardless of what's controlling the vehicle. People aren't going to hail an autonomous taxi more often than they hail a regular taxi unless it's more convenient (which probably requires more total vehicles to be stationed all over) or cheaper (I'm clearly a skeptic on this claim, but time may reveal if I'm correct or not).

It looks like we are very much in agreement.

My only objection is to this: "And human operated mass transit and carpools have been around for 100 years now without getting much of a foothold". Human-operated transit has much more than a foothold. It's a primary mode of transportation for many, many people. I'll concede that it's not easy to do right, and in many places it WAY underperformes its potential.

Car sharing has proven to be a huge challenge to transit. People are much more likely to switch to car sharing from transit than from trips in own cars. People who switch tend to be more affluent, further regating transit to the role of wheels of the poor, with corresponding loss of political clout and thus funding. Autonomous cars are likely going to make this problem worse. Environmental disaster on many fronts.

windytrail

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #736 on: July 12, 2021, 02:00:13 PM »
E-bikes are selling much faster than electric cars. In the US, e-bikes are selling at twice the rate of electric cars (https://www.treehugger.com/the-e-bike-spike-continues-with-one-selling-every-three-minutes-5190688), 600,000 sold last year. Most e-bikes sold are used for transportation, not leisure.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is intending to dole out huge subsidies for electric cars, but not for e-bikes or bike infrastructure.
Quote
Rebates to subsidize EV purchases by consumers and direct spending on federal purchases of EVs would reach close to $1 billion in FY 2022, and a new tax credit would be created for purchases of medium- and heavy-duty zero emission trucks. Also, the budget envisions tax credits worth $236 million in FY 2022 for installation of EV chargers, as well as hundreds of millions more to upgrade the power transmission system, which would benefit EV users.

Biden wants $1 billion in EV subsidies despite the fact that most vehicle trips are less than 6 miles:



All in all, Biden wants to spend $174 billion on vehicle electrification, yet only $20 billion to fund safer streets for people who do not use cars. We should be spending much more on bicycle infrastructure to accommodate the e-bike boom currently happening in this country and elsewhere. This could drastically reduce the amount of vehicles on the road if our government gives it a chance by spending on making our streets safer.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2021, 02:03:00 PM by windytrail »

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #737 on: July 12, 2021, 02:12:24 PM »
There has traditionally been a lot of resistance to making streets safer for pedestrians and cyclists . . . because most methods for doing this involve reducing space for and speed of automobiles.  In North America, the automobile is king - suggesting otherwise seems to either get you branded as a heretic or laughed out of the room.

gooki

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #738 on: July 12, 2021, 02:19:43 PM »
I'm always amazed at how many places in the USA don't even have a sidewalk for pedestrians.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #739 on: July 12, 2021, 02:20:55 PM »
There has traditionally been a lot of resistance to making streets safer for pedestrians and cyclists . . . because most methods for doing this involve reducing space for and speed of automobiles.  In North America, the automobile is king - suggesting otherwise seems to either get you branded as a heretic or laughed out of the room.

...or transit. It's a victim to private car domination the same as pedestrian/bike infrastructure. Maybe even more - you can take away one car lane, and make two bike lanes. But to make two dedicated bus lanes, you need to take away two car lanes.

Quote from: windytrail
All in all, Biden wants to spend $174 billion on vehicle electrification, yet only $20 billion to fund safer streets for people who do not use cars.

"Biden wants" is an oversimplification. He has to put forward proposals that are digestible to the general public (adjusted for voter strength). And the general public is nowhere near enthusiastic support for a switch away from private cars as a center of their lives.

« Last Edit: July 12, 2021, 02:25:26 PM by GodlessCommie »

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #740 on: July 12, 2021, 02:24:01 PM »
I'm always amazed at how many places in the USA don't even have a sidewalk for pedestrians.

One of the reasons we have a tough time finding a LCOL area we can be happy in.

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #741 on: July 12, 2021, 06:52:23 PM »
There has traditionally been a lot of resistance to making streets safer for pedestrians and cyclists . . . because most methods for doing this involve reducing space for and speed of automobiles.  In North America, the automobile is king - suggesting otherwise seems to either get you branded as a heretic or laughed out of the room.

Something makes me suspect that the pedestrian and cyclist lobbying organizations don't have the funding that the automotive and oil & gas lobbyists have, lol.

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #742 on: July 13, 2021, 07:35:46 AM »
There has traditionally been a lot of resistance to making streets safer for pedestrians and cyclists . . . because most methods for doing this involve reducing space for and speed of automobiles.  In North America, the automobile is king - suggesting otherwise seems to either get you branded as a heretic or laughed out of the room.

Something makes me suspect that the pedestrian and cyclist lobbying organizations don't have the funding that the automotive and oil & gas lobbyists have, lol.

You can't blame the oil and gas lobby.  Car use seems to be ridiculously deeply ingrained in our culture.  It's a little frustrating that the same chorus of excuses always comes up:
- NOBODY COULD DO THAT AND YOU DON'T COUNT
- MY SON RIDES A BIKE, THEREFORE THEY'RE ONLY FOR CHILDREN
- ALL THAT BIKES DO IS SLOW DOWN TRAFFIC FOR EVERYONE ELSE
- WHAT IF IT RAINS / IS SUNNY / SNOWS / IS WINDY / HUMITITY / POLLUTION / BUGS / DUST / ALLERGIES
- IT'S SO DANGEROUS.  DID YOU KNOW THAT 100% OF CYCLISTS WILL DIE?
- I'M AN OBESE SMOKER SO AM INCAPABLE OF PHYSICAL ACTIVITY
- YOU CAN'T CARRY ANYTHING WHILE CYCLING
- MY BODY IS UNIQUE AMONG HUMANS IN THAT I SWEAT
- I COMMUTE 300 MILES A DAY, YOU CAN'T BIKE THAT
- HOW WOULD I BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO ENJOY RUNNING CYCLISTS OFF THE ROAD WHILE ON A BIKE?

:P

gaja

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #743 on: July 13, 2021, 08:11:24 AM »
I sometimes wonder whether the "bicycle rather than EV" arguments are and example of the old adage "perfect is the enemy og good", or whether it comes from the oil lobby as a weapon to cause infighting instead of a united front for green choices.

The figure attached shows the transporthierarchy - how to make good choices in prioritized order.
1. Avoid transport
If you can't do that:
2. Walk or bike
If you can't do that:
3. Public transport
If you can't do that:
4. Car sharing
If you can't do that:
5. Personal vehicles using electricity, hydrogen or biogas
If you can't do that:
6. Personal vehicles using other renewable fuels made from waste products, but avoid palm oil derivates
If you can't do that:
7. Personal vehicles using certified palm oil free biobased fuels
If you can't do that:
8. Hybrid vehicles using fossil fuels
If you can't do that:
9. Fossil fuels: petrol, diesel, natural gas.

We need to work on all levels to make it possible to move as high in the hierarchy as possible. That includes promoting work from home, building charging stations for EVs, building bike lanes, improving public transport, increasing the oversight on biofuel production, etc. Of course bikes are a better choice than personal cars. But for the cases where you do need a personal vehicle, it should be easy to choose electric rather than fossil fuelled.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #744 on: July 13, 2021, 08:28:21 AM »
Uff da - If I had lived in Minnesota longer, maybe I would have learned to read that.

neo von retorch

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #745 on: July 13, 2021, 08:30:58 AM »
In the expensive area I live, there are bike trails along the major road. I was able to ride a bike the 7 miles to work before my employer chose to support remote work. Now I only did it when the weather was favorable. I'm no saint. But almost every other place I lived, and almost every other job I had, biking was, at best, barely tenable. At worst, a dangerous proposition. That's the current state of the United States in many places for many people. Can we just casually subsidize moving all the houses and employers closer together? Make sure all roads have safe biking lanes or trails? Shouldn't take more than a year or two, right? Of course not. It would (will, if we're optimists) take generations to get there. Cars will be used by individuals in many cases, in the meantime.

Do I hate the environment? No, but I'm not selfless, and I am pragmatic. I also think lots of people could bike that still choose not to. It's hard to get people to change their ways. It takes a long time and lots of aligned incentives.

If twice as many people are buying electric bikes than electric cars, I'm not sure there's a good argument for reducing the incentive for people to switch away from ICE vehicles. That confuses me. Of course, with government, you'd think they'd look at their budget and carefully select where to allocate dollars. I don't think our government does a good job of that... lobbyist likely say "you should throw money in this direction" and budgets... be damned! That's a whole other thread :) (Your local thread police!)

This thread about the Mach-E helping to spark change was started November, 2019.

In 2020, Ford didn't really sell any Mach-E.
In 2021, they've sold about 13,000. Looks like production numbers are approaching 7,000 / month now. (Tesla produces about 10x as many EVs each month.)

Overall this is very disappointing (unless you wish Ford just built bikes).

Chaplin

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #746 on: July 13, 2021, 08:56:11 AM »
Good stuff @gaja!

The problem of "perfect is the enemy of the good" rears its ugly head often in environmental issues:

- does evangelizing about bikes being the only solution stop people from seeking improvements on their current modes of transport?

- does heavy promotion of veganism reduce the number of people who might reduce their meat consumption by say 10%?

- does a focus on how power is generated overshadow the conversation around reducing consumption regardless of source?

- does arguing that people need stop doing X,Y or Z stop people from considering ways to those things in less impactful ways?

I think a lot of the "extreme" positions are taken by people who realize that ultimately the solutions to climate change are going to have to be fairly extreme. I think that's the case myself. What this approach misses is that asking people to go from zero to extreme in one step is pretty much guaranteed to fail. Getting people to do a "meatless Monday" rather go full vegan isn't "enough" relative to the problem at hand, but it might be palatable enough for someone to try. The hope then is that they're open to further incremental changes. And then, perhaps the incremental changes lead to something closer the "extreme."

Of course, we work within systems and infrastructures that define where "extreme" is. 68% of trips to school and work in Amsterdam are by bike because the infrastructure supports it. Getting to 80% probably isn't supported by their infrastructure, yet. For many other cities around the world, but especially in North America getting to 5% would be extreme.

People will choose what to do in just about every area based on what's most convenient (fastest, lowest cost, etc.). Some of the decision-making around convenience is logical, but much of it also isn't - there's so much influence of habit, childhood, what everyone else is doing, and especially identity.

People in Amsterdam don't bike because they're altruistically doing something they don't want to do for the good of others. They're doing it because it's the best option based on factors like cost of private vehicles, bike paths, bike parking, work policies, bike design, helmet laws (lack thereof, which is possible because of the infrastructure, etc.), and because it's normal.

In a weak attempt to tie this back to the OP question... EVs are relatively easy to adopt because the infrastructure mostly already supports them (roads, parking, etc.). Some would say that the infrastructure doesn't support them because of a lack of sufficient public charging, and charging solutions for renters, apartment-dwellers, and street-parkers. There's some truth to that, but for a significant proportion of the population those infrastructure concerns aren't a big deal. Right now, the biggest factor that will drive or slow adoption is identity. If driving an EV conflicts with your identity you will hold out as long as possible. If it confirms or reinforces your identity, you'll pay a bit extra to be an early adopter. If it has no bearing on your identity, you'll drive one when the economics makes sense for you.

BuffaloStache

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #747 on: July 13, 2021, 09:23:27 AM »
...
This thread about the Mach-E helping to spark change was started November, 2019.

In 2020, Ford didn't really sell any Mach-E.
In 2021, they've sold about 13,000. Looks like production numbers are approaching 7,000 / month now. (Tesla produces about 10x as many EVs each month.)

Overall this is very disappointing (unless you wish Ford just built bikes).

Thanks for getting us back on track, Neo. I'll chime in to say:

In 2020, I know I didn't drive around much, but I didn't see even one Mach-E out on the road.
In 2021, I've seen 3. Granted it's a 300% increase, but it still isn't a lot.

Where I live, Tesla's are far and away the most seen BEV (mostly Model 3s), with Nissan Leaf coming in 2nd. Outside of those handful of models (Tesla S, 3, X, Y, and Nissan Leaf), all other BEVs are seen far and few between (Maybe slightly more Chevy Bolts than others, but still not a lot).

However, I do think that there are many more EVs on the road today than 3 years ago. I'm hoping that trend continues. I say this as a non-EV owning person, but both of my family's cars are 15+ years old (and we definitely plan on replacing at least one with an EV when they die).

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #748 on: July 13, 2021, 09:30:45 AM »
You can't blame the oil and gas lobby.  Car use seems to be ridiculously deeply ingrained in our culture.

At least in the US, the most potent political forces form when genuine grassroots movement finds institutional support and funding. The way humans are, we are much easier to get worked up in opposition to something than in support of something. Add to this the rural bias in American political institutions, and you get car-centric development being practically impossible to dislodge.

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #749 on: July 13, 2021, 09:57:11 AM »
There has traditionally been a lot of resistance to making streets safer for pedestrians and cyclists . . . because most methods for doing this involve reducing space for and speed of automobiles.  In North America, the automobile is king - suggesting otherwise seems to either get you branded as a heretic or laughed out of the room.

Something makes me suspect that the pedestrian and cyclist lobbying organizations don't have the funding that the automotive and oil & gas lobbyists have, lol.

You can't blame the oil and gas lobby. Car use seems to be ridiculously deeply ingrained in our culture.  It's a little frustrating that the same chorus of excuses always comes up:
- NOBODY COULD DO THAT AND YOU DON'T COUNT
- MY SON RIDES A BIKE, THEREFORE THEY'RE ONLY FOR CHILDREN
- ALL THAT BIKES DO IS SLOW DOWN TRAFFIC FOR EVERYONE ELSE
- WHAT IF IT RAINS / IS SUNNY / SNOWS / IS WINDY / HUMITITY / POLLUTION / BUGS / DUST / ALLERGIES
- IT'S SO DANGEROUS.  DID YOU KNOW THAT 100% OF CYCLISTS WILL DIE?
- I'M AN OBESE SMOKER SO AM INCAPABLE OF PHYSICAL ACTIVITY
- YOU CAN'T CARRY ANYTHING WHILE CYCLING
- MY BODY IS UNIQUE AMONG HUMANS IN THAT I SWEAT
- I COMMUTE 300 MILES A DAY, YOU CAN'T BIKE THAT
- HOW WOULD I BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO ENJOY RUNNING CYCLISTS OFF THE ROAD WHILE ON A BIKE?

:P

Why do you think that is?

https://www.vox.com/2015/1/15/7551873/jaywalking-history

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!