Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?

[Paper Chaser]

The issue is not that EV's prices are changing. It's that they're doing so often and unpredictably. That makes it difficult to predict any kind of depreciation, which is a large cost of owning a vehicle for many owners and all fleets.

It used to be that price changes really only occurred with changes to the model year. If EV prices are going to fluctuate with commodity prices, or month to month demand that makes the margin for error in TCO calculations much wider. If you were a business owner trying to predict what you might be able to sell your used Lightning for in 3-5 years, what do you do with data like this?



If you bought a Lightning in Mar 23, not only did you pay a bunch more up front, but you also took a $10k depreciation hit that you weren't expecting a couple of months later when they slashed prices out of the blue.

[lemonlyman]

The issue is not that EV's prices are changing. It's that they're doing so often and unpredictably. That makes it difficult to predict any kind of depreciation, which is a large cost of owning a vehicle for many owners and all fleets.

It used to be that price changes really only occurred with changes to the model year. If EV prices are going to fluctuate with commodity prices, or month to month demand that makes the margin for error in TCO calculations much wider. If you were a business owner trying to predict what you might be able to sell your used Lightning for in 3-5 years, what do you do with data like this?



If you bought a Lightning in Mar 23, not only did you pay a bunch more up front, but you also took a $10k depreciation hit that you weren't expecting a couple of months later when they slashed prices out of the blue.

All vehicle prices are falling not just EVs. Go to cars.com and view Chevy Silverado or Ford F-150 prices over the last 30 days. It's pretty easy to find $5,000 MSRP cuts just within the last month even in rural areas which usually see price cuts last because of lower supply access. This is an extremely tough macro environment for vehicles right now.

But yeah, I agree in general with what you're saying about the sporadic price variance making it difficult to predict residual value.

[LennStar]

If you were a business owner trying to predict what you might be able to sell your used Lightning for in 3-5 years, what do you do with data like this?

Well, the core problem here is - very easy to see - you buying a F-150 instead of a sensible vehicle, so I would never be in the situation to calculate that.

Putting that aside, and also that it is your faulty business acumen for buying a clearly overpriced vehicle; trying to calculate what an EV will cost in 3-5 years aftermarket is - at least until 2030 - a stupid idea right from the start. It's a market that is not only changing fast, but also so far has no supply. If your calculation - on whatever you base it - is only off by 20%, that's a pretty good job.

btw. I just BYD started to sell their smallest EV, thw Dolphin, in Germany. For a starting price of 38K€. In China it is sold for less than half of that. Question: What is the used vehicle price in 5 years?

[Tyson]

Back when Tesla car prices were very high, people complained that they were overpriced.  Now that Tesla has systematically and aggressively cut prices, people complain about price changes. 

Personally I think that the drive to make their cars lower and lower priced is exactly the right direction things should be going.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this was (in my understanding) always the expectation of EVs, and has been a general trend of autos with advanced features for decades. I remember the whole “early adopters of EVs will pay a premium, as they become mass produced their sticker price will fall [in real terms]”.

Similarly, most advanced features are found first at a steep premium in luxury vehicles, and then (when sufficiently successful or desirable) get gradually offered to every base model car out there for a small fraction of what it cost a decade earlier as an option in a luxury vehicle. I’m thinking about adaptive cruise control, remote start, Bluetooth connectivity… And in previous generations power windows, a/c, stereo systems…

Even the long-running models of today are on average cheaper and have more features than they did a few decades ago. Think of the Honda Accord or WV Jetta or Toyota Camery.

Yes, exactly.  IMO, EV's won't hit mass adoption until they are both cheaper AND better than ICE cars.  Right now I'd say EV's are better but are not yet cheaper for the average car buyer.  But things are trending in the right direction.

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

Everything is going high tech, even refrigerators, garage doors, doorbells, televisions and thermostats (to name a few).  I'm not sure why you think cars would be any different?  For me, the bigger issue is not that it uses more tech.  The bigger issue is whether I can still use the device even when it's 'old' and how long does it last.  For an EV that's a question about the motors and the batteries.  How long will those last?  Because if the motors and batteries last a long time then the EV's still usable. 

I treat my phones the same way - keep them until battery degradation makes them unusable.  It's not a perfect solution but it keeps the churn to a minimum.

[Just Joe]

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

Sure, I can ramble on for a page or two. Don't worry I won't. ;)

I'm convinced that my late 90s Honda is a better long term proposition than a new Honda. A simpler machine.

Has all the major comforts and features DW and I feel are important. Wish it was quieter.

Edit: looking at Leafs a little more often. $15K for a 25K mile car with 3-4 years of age. Getting close to my expected sweet spot. Honda still getting the job done.

[GuitarStv]

Back when Tesla car prices were very high, people complained that they were overpriced.  Now that Tesla has systematically and aggressively cut prices, people complain about price changes. 

Personally I think that the drive to make their cars lower and lower priced is exactly the right direction things should be going.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this was (in my understanding) always the expectation of EVs, and has been a general trend of autos with advanced features for decades. I remember the whole “early adopters of EVs will pay a premium, as they become mass produced their sticker price will fall [in real terms]”.

Similarly, most advanced features are found first at a steep premium in luxury vehicles, and then (when sufficiently successful or desirable) get gradually offered to every base model car out there for a small fraction of what it cost a decade earlier as an option in a luxury vehicle. I’m thinking about adaptive cruise control, remote start, Bluetooth connectivity… And in previous generations power windows, a/c, stereo systems…

Even the long-running models of today are on average cheaper and have more features than they did a few decades ago. Think of the Honda Accord or WV Jetta or Toyota Camery.

Yes, exactly.  IMO, EV's won't hit mass adoption until they are both cheaper AND better than ICE cars.  Right now I'd say EV's are better but are not yet cheaper for the average car buyer.  But things are trending in the right direction.

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

Everything is going high tech, even refrigerators, garage doors, doorbells, televisions and thermostats (to name a few).  I'm not sure why you think cars would be any different?  For me, the bigger issue is not that it uses more tech.  The bigger issue is whether I can still use the device even when it's 'old' and how long does it last.  For an EV that's a question about the motors and the batteries.  How long will those last?  Because if the motors and batteries last a long time then the EV's still usable. 

I treat my phones the same way - keep them until battery degradation makes them unusable.  It's not a perfect solution but it keeps the churn to a minimum.

If the motor and batteries still work but none of the electronics do, is a Tesla usable?

[Tyson]

Back when Tesla car prices were very high, people complained that they were overpriced.  Now that Tesla has systematically and aggressively cut prices, people complain about price changes. 

Personally I think that the drive to make their cars lower and lower priced is exactly the right direction things should be going.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this was (in my understanding) always the expectation of EVs, and has been a general trend of autos with advanced features for decades. I remember the whole “early adopters of EVs will pay a premium, as they become mass produced their sticker price will fall [in real terms]”.

Similarly, most advanced features are found first at a steep premium in luxury vehicles, and then (when sufficiently successful or desirable) get gradually offered to every base model car out there for a small fraction of what it cost a decade earlier as an option in a luxury vehicle. I’m thinking about adaptive cruise control, remote start, Bluetooth connectivity… And in previous generations power windows, a/c, stereo systems…

Even the long-running models of today are on average cheaper and have more features than they did a few decades ago. Think of the Honda Accord or WV Jetta or Toyota Camery.

Yes, exactly.  IMO, EV's won't hit mass adoption until they are both cheaper AND better than ICE cars.  Right now I'd say EV's are better but are not yet cheaper for the average car buyer.  But things are trending in the right direction.

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

Everything is going high tech, even refrigerators, garage doors, doorbells, televisions and thermostats (to name a few).  I'm not sure why you think cars would be any different?  For me, the bigger issue is not that it uses more tech.  The bigger issue is whether I can still use the device even when it's 'old' and how long does it last.  For an EV that's a question about the motors and the batteries.  How long will those last?  Because if the motors and batteries last a long time then the EV's still usable. 

I treat my phones the same way - keep them until battery degradation makes them unusable.  It's not a perfect solution but it keeps the churn to a minimum.

If the motor and batteries still work but none of the electronics do, is a Tesla usable?

Yes you can drive them without the center console turned on:

https://www.teslaoracle.com/2022/01/11/heres-how-it-feels-like-driving-a-tesla-model-3-y-without-the-center-screen-video/

The main thing would be to get your speed displayed, maybe add an aftermarket heads up display. 

Also, there's more than a few 2012 Tesla still on the road and they're still kept up to date with new software.  They don't get some features like autosummon or autopilot but otherwise work fine. 

[GuitarStv]

Back when Tesla car prices were very high, people complained that they were overpriced.  Now that Tesla has systematically and aggressively cut prices, people complain about price changes. 

Personally I think that the drive to make their cars lower and lower priced is exactly the right direction things should be going.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this was (in my understanding) always the expectation of EVs, and has been a general trend of autos with advanced features for decades. I remember the whole “early adopters of EVs will pay a premium, as they become mass produced their sticker price will fall [in real terms]”.

Similarly, most advanced features are found first at a steep premium in luxury vehicles, and then (when sufficiently successful or desirable) get gradually offered to every base model car out there for a small fraction of what it cost a decade earlier as an option in a luxury vehicle. I’m thinking about adaptive cruise control, remote start, Bluetooth connectivity… And in previous generations power windows, a/c, stereo systems…

Even the long-running models of today are on average cheaper and have more features than they did a few decades ago. Think of the Honda Accord or WV Jetta or Toyota Camery.

Yes, exactly.  IMO, EV's won't hit mass adoption until they are both cheaper AND better than ICE cars.  Right now I'd say EV's are better but are not yet cheaper for the average car buyer.  But things are trending in the right direction.

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

Everything is going high tech, even refrigerators, garage doors, doorbells, televisions and thermostats (to name a few).  I'm not sure why you think cars would be any different?  For me, the bigger issue is not that it uses more tech.  The bigger issue is whether I can still use the device even when it's 'old' and how long does it last.  For an EV that's a question about the motors and the batteries.  How long will those last?  Because if the motors and batteries last a long time then the EV's still usable. 

I treat my phones the same way - keep them until battery degradation makes them unusable.  It's not a perfect solution but it keeps the churn to a minimum.

If the motor and batteries still work but none of the electronics do, is a Tesla usable?

Yes you can drive them without the center console turned on:

https://www.teslaoracle.com/2022/01/11/heres-how-it-feels-like-driving-a-tesla-model-3-y-without-the-center-screen-video/

The main thing would be to get your speed displayed, maybe add an aftermarket heads up display. 

Also, there's more than a few 2012 Tesla still on the road and they're still kept up to date with new software.  They don't get some features like autosummon or autopilot but otherwise work fine.

If you read that article (or listen to the video past 38 seconds), you'll find that all the electronics in the vehicle were turned on in the test.  Only the center console screen was disabled and the user connected to his car electronics via a cellphone.

[Tyson]

Back when Tesla car prices were very high, people complained that they were overpriced.  Now that Tesla has systematically and aggressively cut prices, people complain about price changes. 

Personally I think that the drive to make their cars lower and lower priced is exactly the right direction things should be going.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this was (in my understanding) always the expectation of EVs, and has been a general trend of autos with advanced features for decades. I remember the whole “early adopters of EVs will pay a premium, as they become mass produced their sticker price will fall [in real terms]”.

Similarly, most advanced features are found first at a steep premium in luxury vehicles, and then (when sufficiently successful or desirable) get gradually offered to every base model car out there for a small fraction of what it cost a decade earlier as an option in a luxury vehicle. I’m thinking about adaptive cruise control, remote start, Bluetooth connectivity… And in previous generations power windows, a/c, stereo systems…

Even the long-running models of today are on average cheaper and have more features than they did a few decades ago. Think of the Honda Accord or WV Jetta or Toyota Camery.

Yes, exactly.  IMO, EV's won't hit mass adoption until they are both cheaper AND better than ICE cars.  Right now I'd say EV's are better but are not yet cheaper for the average car buyer.  But things are trending in the right direction.

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

Everything is going high tech, even refrigerators, garage doors, doorbells, televisions and thermostats (to name a few).  I'm not sure why you think cars would be any different?  For me, the bigger issue is not that it uses more tech.  The bigger issue is whether I can still use the device even when it's 'old' and how long does it last.  For an EV that's a question about the motors and the batteries.  How long will those last?  Because if the motors and batteries last a long time then the EV's still usable. 

I treat my phones the same way - keep them until battery degradation makes them unusable.  It's not a perfect solution but it keeps the churn to a minimum.

If the motor and batteries still work but none of the electronics do, is a Tesla usable?

Yes you can drive them without the center console turned on:

https://www.teslaoracle.com/2022/01/11/heres-how-it-feels-like-driving-a-tesla-model-3-y-without-the-center-screen-video/

The main thing would be to get your speed displayed, maybe add an aftermarket heads up display. 

Also, there's more than a few 2012 Tesla still on the road and they're still kept up to date with new software.  They don't get some features like autosummon or autopilot but otherwise work fine.

If you read that article (or listen to the video past 38 seconds), you'll find that all the electronics in the vehicle were turned on in the test.  Only the center console screen was disabled and the user connected to his car electronics via a cellphone.

I've actually driven my Tesla around with the center console turned off, so it is possible.  The main issue with doing it long term would be getting a way to display your speed not using the center console.  I know some people have put in after-market displays because they wanted the speed shown in-line with the steering wheel. So it should be possible even based on current options.

Also I think another question to ask is whether or not the manufacturer (any manufacturer, not just Tesla) creates planned obsolescence for their vehicles.  As far as I was able to find, Tesla has never phased out any of their vehicles due to obsolescence.

[nereo]

Back when Tesla car prices were very high, people complained that they were overpriced.  Now that Tesla has systematically and aggressively cut prices, people complain about price changes. 

Personally I think that the drive to make their cars lower and lower priced is exactly the right direction things should be going.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this was (in my understanding) always the expectation of EVs, and has been a general trend of autos with advanced features for decades. I remember the whole “early adopters of EVs will pay a premium, as they become mass produced their sticker price will fall [in real terms]”.

Similarly, most advanced features are found first at a steep premium in luxury vehicles, and then (when sufficiently successful or desirable) get gradually offered to every base model car out there for a small fraction of what it cost a decade earlier as an option in a luxury vehicle. I’m thinking about adaptive cruise control, remote start, Bluetooth connectivity… And in previous generations power windows, a/c, stereo systems…

Even the long-running models of today are on average cheaper and have more features than they did a few decades ago. Think of the Honda Accord or WV Jetta or Toyota Camery.

Yes, exactly.  IMO, EV's won't hit mass adoption until they are both cheaper AND better than ICE cars.  Right now I'd say EV's are better but are not yet cheaper for the average car buyer.  But things are trending in the right direction.

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

Everything is going high tech, even refrigerators, garage doors, doorbells, televisions and thermostats (to name a few).  I'm not sure why you think cars would be any different?  For me, the bigger issue is not that it uses more tech.  The bigger issue is whether I can still use the device even when it's 'old' and how long does it last.  For an EV that's a question about the motors and the batteries.  How long will those last?  Because if the motors and batteries last a long time then the EV's still usable. 

I treat my phones the same way - keep them until battery degradation makes them unusable.  It's not a perfect solution but it keeps the churn to a minimum.

If the motor and batteries still work but none of the electronics do, is a Tesla usable?

Yes you can drive them without the center console turned on:

https://www.teslaoracle.com/2022/01/11/heres-how-it-feels-like-driving-a-tesla-model-3-y-without-the-center-screen-video/

The main thing would be to get your speed displayed, maybe add an aftermarket heads up display. 

Also, there's more than a few 2012 Tesla still on the road and they're still kept up to date with new software.  They don't get some features like autosummon or autopilot but otherwise work fine.

If you read that article (or listen to the video past 38 seconds), you'll find that all the electronics in the vehicle were turned on in the test.  Only the center console screen was disabled and the user connected to his car electronics via a cellphone.

I've actually driven my Tesla around with the center console turned off, so it is possible.  The main issue with doing it long term would be getting a way to display your speed not using the center console.  I know some people have put in after-market displays because they wanted the speed shown in-line with the steering wheel. So it should be possible even based on current options.

Also I think another question to ask is whether or not the manufacturer (any manufacturer, not just Tesla) creates planned obsolescence for their vehicles.  As far as I was able to find, Tesla has never phased out any of their vehicles due to obsolescence.

Or view the issue even more broadly. An under-appreciated fact is that modern cars last longer on average than cars a few decades ago, with higher overall performance and better safety, especially in extreme conditions.  Yes, there is no denying they are far more complex (an issue that has both positives and negatives), but amazingly this complexity hasn’t resulted in a less reliable vehicle.

It’s a bit on the early side to judge how it might play out with most EVs, but the current trend of 5+ year old BEVs is encouraging.

[Paper Chaser]

The basic EV stuff like electric motors and batteries should be pretty robust. It's the other stuff (software or poorly designed electrical hardware/modules) that can cause issues. Early Tesla's had some major issues with an underspecced drive in the infotainment that would fill up too quickly. When it was full, it caused enough of an issue with functionality that they recalled them. You couldn't adjust the HVAC, and it occasionally meant the vehicle could not be charged.

https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/tesla-mcu1-emmc-failure-explained/

[alsoknownasDean]

If you were a business owner trying to predict what you might be able to sell your used Lightning for in 3-5 years, what do you do with data like this?

Well, the core problem here is - very easy to see - you buying a F-150 instead of a sensible vehicle, so I would never be in the situation to calculate that.

Putting that aside, and also that it is your faulty business acumen for buying a clearly overpriced vehicle; trying to calculate what an EV will cost in 3-5 years aftermarket is - at least until 2030 - a stupid idea right from the start. It's a market that is not only changing fast, but also so far has no supply. If your calculation - on whatever you base it - is only off by 20%, that's a pretty good job.

btw. I just BYD started to sell their smallest EV, thw Dolphin, in Germany. For a starting price of 38K€. In China it is sold for less than half of that. Question: What is the used vehicle price in 5 years?

Wow that's expensive for the Dolphin. They've just been launched down under starting at the equivalent of about €23500+on roads (A$38890). Not far off Corolla/Mazda3/i30 pricing.

I rented a Polestar 2 for a few days recently. I enjoyed it (especially as it was the dual motor version), and the rental was surprisingly inexpensive, especially as I did 800km in it and only spent about A$35 in DC fast charging (one session was free but if I'd paid normal rates it'd still be about $55).

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

[LennStar]

An under-appreciated fact is that modern cars last longer on average than cars a few decades ago,

But that is simply engineering. Example: The Golf III(?) was made (with quite the effort) to be a long lasting car. The result is that there are still more than 100K of them on German streets while having the vintage car designation (30 year old).

Wow that's expensive for the Dolphin.

Yes, I had to double check that it's the same car and I didn't mess up the name :D
The other prices are also high, so I think BYD is testing the water and building up their sales net, while cashing in on a few patriots.

[nereo]

An under-appreciated fact is that modern cars last longer on average than cars a few decades ago,

But that is simply engineering. Example: The Golf III(?) was made (with quite the effort) to be a long lasting car. The result is that there are still more than 100K of them on German streets while having the vintage car designation (30 year old).

Not just the Golf III. Cars across the board. VW has been one of the more repair prone brands in the last few decades in the NA market, but their models are also outlasting those built in the late 20th century.

[GilesMM]

An under-appreciated fact is that modern cars last longer on average than cars a few decades ago,

But that is simply engineering. Example: The Golf III(?) was made (with quite the effort) to be a long lasting car. The result is that there are still more than 100K of them on German streets while having the vintage car designation (30 year old).

Not just the Golf III. Cars across the board. VW has been one of the more repair prone brands in the last few decades in the NA market, but their models are also outlasting those built in the late 20th century.

I sometimes miss the good old days when cars fell apart rapidly and needed to be replaced frequently.  My father was always scanning the classified ads for a used bargain. If he found one that had just one fewer problems than either of our current heaps, he would buy it and sell one of ours.  (Our state had no sales tax and minimal rego fees so these transactions were very low cost.)  He once sold a great malaise-era Pontiac just because he thought it might need a brake job soon.  He didn't care what model or color the cars were or even if they made modest body damage, so my mother was frequently horrified to be handed the keys to a brown or bright orange vehicle maybe with a dent or two.  We had VW, Saab, GM, and Ford vehicles before he bought a brand new Honda. That changed everything and it was nothing but Japanese vehicles after that, each one for a decade or more.


Our current vehicles have high miles (>100k) but could be the last we ever need.  I'm not afraid of investing in a brake job or new tires.  Kinda boring, though.

[Just Joe]

Each time I've heard someone selling a car to avoid maintenance costs like brakes I have to chuckle b/c brakes are so simple and inexpensive to do - until I remember that most Americans rely on a shop to do it. What costs me $200 in parts costs them a grand or more. I too heard relatives back in the 1970s talk about selling cars before some maintenance item came due.

[Just Joe]

Got side tracked and forgot to write that last night on the news they were talking about how the price of insurance on everything in FL is going up. Partially the weather but also partially the fact that the average car is similar in complexity and price to a space shuttle. Floods and crashes are expensive for fancy cars and SUVs.

[lemonlyman]

I've read about that going on in Florida. It cost me $11/month to add a Leaf to my insurance policy.

[nereo]

Got side tracked and forgot to write that last night on the news they were talking about how the price of insurance on everything in FL is going up. Partially the weather but also partially the fact that the average car is similar in complexity and price to a space shuttle. Floods and crashes are expensive for fancy cars and SUVs.

Florida has been hit with some absolutely massive insurance losses over the last couple decades, and has a much higher than average risk moving forward according to most assessments.  I remember reading somewhere that car insurance underwriters have lost money in Florida every year this century, and are treating it as a loss-leader to get more clients in "bundled insurance" where they actually make money.

[pecunia]

Got side tracked and forgot to write that last night on the news they were talking about how the price of insurance on everything in FL is going up. Partially the weather but also partially the fact that the average car is similar in complexity and price to a space shuttle. Floods and crashes are expensive for fancy cars and SUVs.

Florida has been hit with some absolutely massive insurance losses over the last couple decades, and has a much higher than average risk moving forward according to most assessments.  I remember reading somewhere that car insurance underwriters have lost money in Florida every year this century, and are treating it as a loss-leader to get more clients in "bundled insurance" where they actually make money.

Are there a lot of accidents there?  No snow.  It's flat.  Hurricane damage?

[GuitarStv]

Got side tracked and forgot to write that last night on the news they were talking about how the price of insurance on everything in FL is going up. Partially the weather but also partially the fact that the average car is similar in complexity and price to a space shuttle. Floods and crashes are expensive for fancy cars and SUVs.

Florida has been hit with some absolutely massive insurance losses over the last couple decades, and has a much higher than average risk moving forward according to most assessments.  I remember reading somewhere that car insurance underwriters have lost money in Florida every year this century, and are treating it as a loss-leader to get more clients in "bundled insurance" where they actually make money.

Are there a lot of accidents there?  No snow.  It's flat.  Hurricane damage?

Florida man.

[AlanStache]

...
Are there a lot of accidents there?  No snow.  It's flat.  Hurricane damage?

Tell me you have not driven in Florida without telling me you have not driven in Florida. 

Lots of old people, no drivers ed for young people, and lots of tourists who dont know where they are going. 

Dont think I like the "loss leader bundle" idea, seems drivers should pay for the damage they do <shrug>.

[nereo]

...
Are there a lot of accidents there?  No snow.  It's flat.  Hurricane damage?

Tell me you have not driven in Florida without telling me you have not driven in Florida. 

Lots of old people, no drivers ed for young people, and lots of tourists who dont know where they are going. 

Dont think I like the "loss leader bundle" idea, seems drivers should pay for the damage they do <shrug>.

Not to mention hurricanes and floods. Florida has been hit with more major storms this century than any other state, including multiple major hurricanes. Its low-lying topography makes it unusually susceptible to storm surge. Ian was one of the most destructive natural disasters in US history in terms of property damage (2022)

[pecunia]

I guess I understand why they are building some semi high speed trains in Florida.  It sounds safer.  Politics down there seems a bit bizarre at times too.

[TomTX]

It used to be that price changes really only occurred with changes to the model year.

Completely incorrect. MSRP might not have changed, but very few vehicles ever sold at MSRP before Tesla came on the scene. MSRP has never been a reasonable benchmark for value.

Dealers changed the price for every person who walks in the door, and for the same person every time they walk through the door. Manufacturer incentives/rebates/whatever to dealers changed all the time as well. Different prices at every salesdroid at every dealer. An opaque, chaotic, muddled mess.

You only think that we have more price changes because we're getting some actual transparency on EV pricing.

[Just Joe]

And now for something different: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/10/toyota-has-built-an-ev-with-a-fake-transmission-and-weve-driven-it

[LennStar]

And now for something different: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/10/toyota-has-built-an-ev-with-a-fake-transmission-and-weve-driven-it

That's so stupid only a Japanese could build it as not a joke.

But I would guess at least the stalling part would be forbidden for safety reasons. 
[MOD NOTE: Dude, no.  Bad enough I gotta police an Middle East Off topic thread, let's not do this]

[Paper Chaser]

It used to be that price changes really only occurred with changes to the model year.

Completely incorrect. MSRP might not have changed, but very few vehicles ever sold at MSRP before Tesla came on the scene. MSRP has never been a reasonable benchmark for value.

Dealers changed the price for every person who walks in the door, and for the same person every time they walk through the door. Manufacturer incentives/rebates/whatever to dealers changed all the time as well. Different prices at every salesdroid at every dealer. An opaque, chaotic, muddled mess.

You only think that we have more price changes because we're getting some actual transparency on EV pricing.

Sure dealers can charge what they want. But with a consistent MSRP you can shop between dealers. Now you've got MSRP randomly changing 15-20% at a time in some cases, and you still get to play dealer games on top of that with any non Tesla brand.

[Tyson]

And now for something different: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/10/toyota-has-built-an-ev-with-a-fake-transmission-and-weve-driven-it

That's so stupid only a Japanese could build it as not a joke.

But I would guess at least the stalling part would be forbidden for safety reasons. 
[MOD NOTE: Dude, no.  Bad enough I gotta police an Middle East Off topic thread, let's not do this]

Evidently the Koreans and Americans think transmission sounds is a good idea, so definitely not just the Japanese - https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-ev-fake-engine-sound-hyundai-dodge-toyota-2023-7

[LennStar]

And now for something different: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/10/toyota-has-built-an-ev-with-a-fake-transmission-and-weve-driven-it

That's so stupid only a Japanese could build it as not a joke.

But I would guess at least the stalling part would be forbidden for safety reasons. 
[MOD NOTE: Dude, no.  Bad enough I gotta police an Middle East Off topic thread, let's not do this]

Evidently the Koreans and Americans think transmission sounds is a good idea, so definitely not just the Japanese - https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-ev-fake-engine-sound-hyundai-dodge-toyota-2023-7

Hah? You Americans don't even drive manuals!? Even if if you had engine sounds, what's the point for an automatic???

btw @FrugalToque I am pretty sure you misunderstood something there. I was not dissing Japanese. I am deeply fond of them doing any- and everything to extremes. My favorite YT video of the last month is this one about an incredibly extreme apartment for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4oQDnHlrR0

[GilesMM]

And now for something different: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/10/toyota-has-built-an-ev-with-a-fake-transmission-and-weve-driven-it

That's so stupid only a Japanese could build it as not a joke.

But I would guess at least the stalling part would be forbidden for safety reasons. 
[MOD NOTE: Dude, no.  Bad enough I gotta police an Middle East Off topic thread, let's not do this]

Evidently the Koreans and Americans think transmission sounds is a good idea, so definitely not just the Japanese - https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-ev-fake-engine-sound-hyundai-dodge-toyota-2023-7

Hah? You Americans don't even drive manuals!? Even if if you had engine sounds, what's the point for an automatic???

btw @FrugalToque I am pretty sure you misunderstood something there. I was not dissing Japanese. I am deeply fond of them doing any- and everything to extremes. My favorite YT video of the last month is this one about an incredibly extreme apartment for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4oQDnHlrR0

You go from trolling Japanese to trolling Yanks?

[LennStar]

You go from trolling Japanese to trolling Yanks?

I go from praising Japanese to absolute confusion. What do you have from engine sounds you can't influence or react to?
I use the sound to decide when to change gear. Some like the sound and set gears accordingly. But if you are automatic... what for?

[nereo]

I go from praising Japanese to absolute confusion.

This is not hard to understand.  It is never ok to say only one culture is "stupid enough" to do something.  That is not praise by any measure.
There is no misunderstanding.
Please stop the cultural bashing.

[jinga nation]

And now for something different: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/10/toyota-has-built-an-ev-with-a-fake-transmission-and-weve-driven-it

That's so stupid only a Japanese could build it as not a joke.

But I would guess at least the stalling part would be forbidden for safety reasons. 
[MOD NOTE: Dude, no.  Bad enough I gotta police an Middle East Off topic thread, let's not do this]

Evidently the Koreans and Americans think transmission sounds is a good idea, so definitely not just the Japanese - https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-ev-fake-engine-sound-hyundai-dodge-toyota-2023-7

Hah? You Americans don't even drive manuals!? Even if if you had engine sounds, what's the point for an automatic???

Hah, The Germans were doing this back in 2011: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/bmw-m5-generates-fake-engine-noise-using-stereo/

[AccidentialMustache]

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

If so we should also talk about what insurance prices tell us. The cost to insure our 2009 Fit (with traction control!) is about the same as the EV (TC... and radar cruise, automatic emergency braking, blind spot warnings, cross traffic alert, heated mirrors, backup/360 camera, lane departure warning, whatever bits of self-driving it can manage...), for a similar number of miles, despite the EV being worth many times what the Fit is worth.

That couldn't be true if some of those features didn't save the insurer money in claims. Or you have to assume the insurer is just flat out stupid.

Evil and greedy? Maybe. Stupid? Nah, the math doesn't work out to support that.

Now, I've never needed my bicycle to come with cross traffic alert, but that's a different discussion.

[LennStar]

I go from praising Japanese to absolute confusion.

This is not hard to understand.  It is never ok to say only one culture is "stupid enough" to do something.  That is not praise by any measure.
There is no misunderstanding.
Please stop the cultural bashing.

Okay, let's look at the sentence, maybe my English is not good enough.
"That's so stupid only a Japanese could build it as not a joke."
I am not saying a Japanese is stupid for building. I said that X is stupid. And that (I like it) that Japanese build everything.
Like a "stupid" life-sized Gundam. Or a "stupid" 6 seat Michelin-star restaurant in a parking garage. Or a "stupid" Nakagin Capsule Tower, that is unfortunately be destroyed now.

Back to the topic, I still don't understand why anybody could be interested in engine sounds in a car with automatic. Can someone please explain that? I just don't get it, as so many other things around cars.

[nereo]

I go from praising Japanese to absolute confusion.

This is not hard to understand.  It is never ok to say only one culture is "stupid enough" to do something.  That is not praise by any measure.
There is no misunderstanding.
Please stop the cultural bashing.

Okay, let's look at the sentence, maybe my English is not good enough.
"That's so stupid only a Japanese could build it as not a joke."
I am not saying a Japanese is stupid for building. I said that X is stupid. And that (I like it) that Japanese build everything.
Like a "stupid" life-sized Gundam. Or a "stupid" 6 seat Michelin-star restaurant in a parking garage. Or a "stupid" Nakagin Capsule Tower, that is unfortunately be destroyed

Yes, I’m acutely aware that English is not your primary language, which is why I am extending the benefit of the doubt towards you and explaining what is wrong with the sentence.  I, too, have lived in a world where the language spoken wasn’t my own. 

In general, avoid attaching a negative word to a group of people.  It’s especially problematic when a person says “only” a certain group are [negative adjetive].

The rule is:  criticize actions, not people (and definitely groups of people). You meant to say “X” was stupid, so say that - “building X was a stupid thing for the Japanese to do”. There you are being explicit that the action was stupid, not the people doing it. Even better would be to be more specific as to which Japanese did the action you are criticizing, such as “building X was a stupid decision by the Japanese company Y”

Back to your question - I dislike artificial engine noises as well  (and skeuomorphic design in general). But some people are deeply attached to the rumbling sound of certain engines, so much so that certain brands have successfully trademarked their sound (led by Harley Davidson for their twinV motorcycle engine)

[GuitarStv]

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

If so we should also talk about what insurance prices tell us. The cost to insure our 2009 Fit (with traction control!) is about the same as the EV (TC... and radar cruise, automatic emergency braking, blind spot warnings, cross traffic alert, heated mirrors, backup/360 camera, lane departure warning, whatever bits of self-driving it can manage...), for a similar number of miles, despite the EV being worth many times what the Fit is worth.

That couldn't be true if some of those features didn't save the insurer money in claims. Or you have to assume the insurer is just flat out stupid.

Evil and greedy? Maybe. Stupid? Nah, the math doesn't work out to support that.

Now, I've never needed my bicycle to come with cross traffic alert, but that's a different discussion.

Oh, absolutely.  If you are a shit driver then lane departure, backup cameras and whatever other ways a vehicle can take control away from you - they're all going to make your driving safer and reduce accidents*.  There seem to be far more shit drivers than good ones, so what you're saying regarding insurance prices makes perfect sense.

But that doesn't mean that the massive amount of unnecessary complexity in your newer vehicle won't lead to a much earlier obsolescence than should come about.  Insurance doesn't typically cover shit in a car just breaking, or obsolete software/parts.



* And I'd argue that they're largely unnecessary if you're a safe driver.  In the 27 years I've been driving (without any of these features) I haven't been at fault for a single accident, and I have been regularly driving along one of (if not the) most dangerous roads in North America for close to two decades.  Actually, the closest I've come to crashing in recent memory was when driving my mother's car with lane assist in the winter.  There was blowing snow across the right half of the lane I was in and the lane assist decided that I was driving unsafely - yanked the wheel in my hand left to point our vehicle into oncoming traffic.

[pecunia]

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

If so we should also talk about what insurance prices tell us. The cost to insure our 2009 Fit (with traction control!) is about the same as the EV (TC... and radar cruise, automatic emergency braking, blind spot warnings, cross traffic alert, heated mirrors, backup/360 camera, lane departure warning, whatever bits of self-driving it can manage...), for a similar number of miles, despite the EV being worth many times what the Fit is worth.

That couldn't be true if some of those features didn't save the insurer money in claims. Or you have to assume the insurer is just flat out stupid.

Evil and greedy? Maybe. Stupid? Nah, the math doesn't work out to support that.

Now, I've never needed my bicycle to come with cross traffic alert, but that's a different discussion.

Oh, absolutely.  If you are a shit driver then lane departure, backup cameras and whatever other ways a vehicle can take control away from you - they're all going to make your driving safer and reduce accidents*.  There seem to be far more shit drivers than good ones, so what you're saying regarding insurance prices makes perfect sense.

But that doesn't mean that the massive amount of unnecessary complexity in your newer vehicle won't lead to a much earlier obsolescence than should come about.  Insurance doesn't typically cover shit in a car just breaking, or obsolete software/parts.



* And I'd argue that they're largely unnecessary if you're a safe driver.  In the 27 years I've been driving (without any of these features) I haven't been at fault for a single accident, and I have been regularly driving along one of (if not the) most dangerous roads in North America for close to two decades.  Actually, the closest I've come to crashing in recent memory was when driving my mother's car with lane assist in the winter.  There was blowing snow across the right half of the lane I was in and the lane assist decided that I was driving unsafely - yanked the wheel in my hand left to point our vehicle into oncoming traffic.

I've noted that they now have this stuff for bicycles.  I hope they don't get the bright idea to mandate it.

https://www.garmin.com/en-US/p/721258#specs

Come to think of it, I hope they don't start to mandate insurance for cyclists.  Upon further reflection, I hope they don't mandate some sort of bicycle operating license.  OK back to 'lectric cars.

[lemonlyman]

But that doesn't mean that the massive amount of unnecessary complexity in your newer vehicle won't lead to a much earlier obsolescence than should come about.  Insurance doesn't typically cover shit in a car just breaking, or obsolete software/parts.

It's against the interest of automakers for that to occur. I think it's more likely electronics robustness will increase and software efficiency and utilization will increase (because of in car app sales). Car ownership averages 8 years. If routine obsolescence occurs, that's damaging to resale value and point of sale value. Vehicle assets cost too much for something like that not to destroy auto brands. Reliability is a key driver in the market.

[Frugal Lizard]

Having driven 160km yesterday, half in the dark with rain, from downtown Toronto to my small town, I enjoyed the fancy features of my EV. The blind spot warning on the side view mirrors: fantastic feature. The back up camera to assist with squeezing into an underground parking space between super large vehicles on either side: brilliant because I could actually open my door to exit the car.

I find it exhausting to drive into the big city, but public transit is worse for me right now. If the seats on the train were more comfortable, the speed of the train faster, the schedule more flexible I would not have driven. But the fancy features and comforts of my EV made the day a lot less bad.

[nereo]

* And I'd argue that they're largely unnecessary if you're a safe driver.  In the 27 years I've been driving (without any of these features) I haven't been at fault for a single accident, and I have been regularly driving along one of (if not the) most dangerous roads in North America for close to two decades.  Actually, the closest I've come to crashing in recent memory was when driving my mother's car with lane assist in the winter.  There was blowing snow across the right half of the lane I was in and the lane assist decided that I was driving unsafely - yanked the wheel in my hand left to point our vehicle into oncoming traffic.

Here's the thing about rare events though - most people don't get into an accident most years, yet collectively with millions of drivers in a region accidents happen daily and literal lives are lost. With rare events its very hard to separate "lucky from good" drivers, which is the challenge all insurers face when extending coverage to the majority of people who have zero at-fault accidents on their record in the last few years. Are they better than the average, or have they just been lucky.  Certainly many have just been lucky.

The data is pretty clear that on net these features save lives and reduce accidents, even though they can create additional accidents similar to what you've experienced.

[GuitarStv]

But that doesn't mean that the massive amount of unnecessary complexity in your newer vehicle won't lead to a much earlier obsolescence than should come about.  Insurance doesn't typically cover shit in a car just breaking, or obsolete software/parts.

It's against the interest of automakers for that to occur. I think it's more likely electronics robustness will increase and software efficiency and utilization will increase (because of in car app sales). Car ownership averages 8 years. If routine obsolescence occurs, that's damaging to resale value and point of sale value. Vehicle assets cost too much for something like that not to destroy auto brands. Reliability is a key driver in the market.

8 years isn't even half the life of a vehicle though.  I'd expect to get more than 20 years of service from an early 2000s corolla for example.

* And I'd argue that they're largely unnecessary if you're a safe driver.  In the 27 years I've been driving (without any of these features) I haven't been at fault for a single accident, and I have been regularly driving along one of (if not the) most dangerous roads in North America for close to two decades.  Actually, the closest I've come to crashing in recent memory was when driving my mother's car with lane assist in the winter.  There was blowing snow across the right half of the lane I was in and the lane assist decided that I was driving unsafely - yanked the wheel in my hand left to point our vehicle into oncoming traffic.

Here's the thing about rare events though - most people don't get into an accident most years, yet collectively with millions of drivers in a region accidents happen daily and literal lives are lost. With rare events its very hard to separate "lucky from good" drivers, which is the challenge all insurers face when extending coverage to the majority of people who have zero at-fault accidents on their record in the last few years. Are they better than the average, or have they just been lucky.  Certainly many have just been lucky.

The data is pretty clear that on net these features save lives and reduce accidents, even though they can create additional accidents similar to what you've experienced.

Like I said, they're unnecessary if you're a safe driver.  There are an awful lot of drivers playing on their phone, playing with their touchscreen in the car, drunk, incompetent, or distracted.

We've been pretty good at reducing deaths of drivers in car accidents over time.  I can't seem to find a graph of total car accidents per vehicle mile over time - it would be interesting to see if the car features are winning or losing the distraction war.

[lemonlyman]

But that doesn't mean that the massive amount of unnecessary complexity in your newer vehicle won't lead to a much earlier obsolescence than should come about.  Insurance doesn't typically cover shit in a car just breaking, or obsolete software/parts.

It's against the interest of automakers for that to occur. I think it's more likely electronics robustness will increase and software efficiency and utilization will increase (because of in car app sales). Car ownership averages 8 years. If routine obsolescence occurs, that's damaging to resale value and point of sale value. Vehicle assets cost too much for something like that not to destroy auto brands. Reliability is a key driver in the market.

8 years isn't even half the life of a vehicle though.  I'd expect to get more than 20 years of service from an early 2000s corolla for example.

That's true for Year drivers not Mileage drivers. People who put 30,000 miles on a car aren't making it 20 years.

[GuitarStv]

But that doesn't mean that the massive amount of unnecessary complexity in your newer vehicle won't lead to a much earlier obsolescence than should come about.  Insurance doesn't typically cover shit in a car just breaking, or obsolete software/parts.

It's against the interest of automakers for that to occur. I think it's more likely electronics robustness will increase and software efficiency and utilization will increase (because of in car app sales). Car ownership averages 8 years. If routine obsolescence occurs, that's damaging to resale value and point of sale value. Vehicle assets cost too much for something like that not to destroy auto brands. Reliability is a key driver in the market.

8 years isn't even half the life of a vehicle though.  I'd expect to get more than 20 years of service from an early 2000s corolla for example.

That's true for Year drivers not Mileage drivers. People who put 30,000 miles on a car aren't making it 20 years.

People who drive more than twice the yearly average are driving too much and should consider alternatives (and we as a society should provide alternatives).  Although that's probably another conversation. . .

[Tyson]

Are we going to talk about how many of these features that weren't available a decade or two ago don't actually add any value to vehicle owners . . . just add unnecessary complexity and planned obsolescence?

If so we should also talk about what insurance prices tell us. The cost to insure our 2009 Fit (with traction control!) is about the same as the EV (TC... and radar cruise, automatic emergency braking, blind spot warnings, cross traffic alert, heated mirrors, backup/360 camera, lane departure warning, whatever bits of self-driving it can manage...), for a similar number of miles, despite the EV being worth many times what the Fit is worth.

That couldn't be true if some of those features didn't save the insurer money in claims. Or you have to assume the insurer is just flat out stupid.

Evil and greedy? Maybe. Stupid? Nah, the math doesn't work out to support that.

Now, I've never needed my bicycle to come with cross traffic alert, but that's a different discussion.

Oh, absolutely.  If you are a shit driver then lane departure, backup cameras and whatever other ways a vehicle can take control away from you - they're all going to make your driving safer and reduce accidents*.  There seem to be far more shit drivers than good ones, so what you're saying regarding insurance prices makes perfect sense.

But that doesn't mean that the massive amount of unnecessary complexity in your newer vehicle won't lead to a much earlier obsolescence than should come about.  Insurance doesn't typically cover shit in a car just breaking, or obsolete software/parts.



* And I'd argue that they're largely unnecessary if you're a safe driver.  In the 27 years I've been driving (without any of these features) I haven't been at fault for a single accident, and I have been regularly driving along one of (if not the) most dangerous roads in North America for close to two decades.  Actually, the closest I've come to crashing in recent memory was when driving my mother's car with lane assist in the winter.  There was blowing snow across the right half of the lane I was in and the lane assist decided that I was driving unsafely - yanked the wheel in my hand left to point our vehicle into oncoming traffic.

You're right, if everyone was a perfectly safe driver, none of the tech would be necessary.  But as you yourself have observed, there's a ton of shit drivers out there. ergo safety tech makes the roads safer for them (and from them).

[geekette]

After having to back our 14 year old camera less car out of a long dark driveway in the rain, I really wanted a back up camera.  Maybe not so much if reverse lights were actually bright enough to be useful, but they generally aren't.

I drove a rental VW with lane keep assist, and it was awful, occasionally wrenching the steering wheel in odd directions for no discernible reason. I didn't know what it was or how to turn it off.

We now own a Kia Niro EV, and the LKA is much better (plus you have to turn it on, vs it being always on).  A nudge here and there, nothing major.  The blind spot warning is also a very good feature, although it beeps when there are two turn lanes and you're in the far one! 

Adaptive cruise control, which keeps your distance from leading cars, would probably help with fatigue on longer drives (which I've yet to do). 

[lemonlyman]

We now own a Kia Niro EV, and the LKA is much better (plus you have to turn it on, vs it being always on).  A nudge here and there, nothing major.  The blind spot warning is also a very good feature, although it beeps when there are two turn lanes and you're in the far one! 

Adaptive cruise control, which keeps your distance from leading cars, would probably help with fatigue on longer drives (which I've yet to do).

It does. I have a Tesla with FSD and a Nissan Leaf with Propilot. Good ADAS features are amazing on trips. Not that the leaf is good for trips, but just on state highways or long city straights is very nice.

[GuitarStv]

Blind spot warnings and backup cameras were a lot less useful when vehicles were designed so that you could easily see out the back and rear of them.  My mom's corolla has a back up camera . . . and without it it's almost impossible to see well enough to reverse into a spot because of the small rear and back side windows.  This is a significant safety downgrade from the older corolla.

[lemonlyman]

But that doesn't mean that the massive amount of unnecessary complexity in your newer vehicle won't lead to a much earlier obsolescence than should come about.  Insurance doesn't typically cover shit in a car just breaking, or obsolete software/parts.

It's against the interest of automakers for that to occur. I think it's more likely electronics robustness will increase and software efficiency and utilization will increase (because of in car app sales). Car ownership averages 8 years. If routine obsolescence occurs, that's damaging to resale value and point of sale value. Vehicle assets cost too much for something like that not to destroy auto brands. Reliability is a key driver in the market.

8 years isn't even half the life of a vehicle though.  I'd expect to get more than 20 years of service from an early 2000s corolla for example.

That's true for Year drivers not Mileage drivers. People who put 30,000 miles on a car aren't making it 20 years.

People who drive more than twice the yearly average are driving too much and should consider alternatives (and we as a society should provide alternatives).  Although that's probably another conversation. . .

It's only 100ish miles on business days. That's life for a lot of people especially commercial cars and people in the trades who drive to jobs. It's pretty common.