Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?

[nereo]

You would have to be pretty stupid to get caught filling your car at the station though.  Just throw the gas in a few jerry cans with your farm equipment and then fill it back at home.

...and yet they catch people frequently enough doing just this.  Sure, you can fill jerry cans and refill your car at home to save a couple bucks per fillip, but it's still 1) illegal and 2) putting you at risk of getting caught during an inspection stop.  Sure, the probability of getting caught is super low, but the corresponding fine is quite high for the benefit.

[AlanStache]

I have heard LEO's says that they dont catch the smart ones.

[GilesMM]

Is all this just over the use of the term "long haul"?  New tech enables new options that may or may not fit into existing classifications, would it make you happy to call the Tesla truck a "longer than short haul" - something else?

Yeah, it more or less comes down to a misunderstanding of what "long haul" truly is, or what jobs batteries are and are not good at.  Lots of people assume incorrectly that all semis are the same, so the Tesla Semi can surely do long haul stuff, and we can then simply extrapolate that we can solve a lot of these issues with more/bigger batteries. We see similar thinking with buses. School buses and city buses are strong candidates for electrification because they do lots of stop and go driving at relatively low speeds, in defined routes. A Greyhound bus or motorcoach is also a bus, but they spend their days traveling long distances at higher speeds on less defined routes. These are not good candidates for batteries.

The fact is that duty cycles matter. Batteries can be great at doing light duty work, or even heavy duty work for short periods of time. They're not a realistic option for lots of tasks that involve hard work for long periods of time, or with limited down time, or lack of access to charging. This is why a Ford Lightning F150 is a terrific Suburban Cowboy commuter or local contractor rig, and a terrible tow vehicle. It's why a Model 3 Performance can be a great drivers car, but can't complete a bunch of fast laps on a race track. Or why a battery powered chainsaw/lawn mower/etc might work great for a homeowner, but can't run all day like a gas one used by professionals.

The Tesla Semi is a day cab. These types of trucks are intended to start and finish their days on the same routes over and over. They have no sleeping accommodations for drivers, they don't typically travel more than a couple hundred miles from a central base. EV trucks can currently do this work reasonably well, and it's an important part of trucking. But it doesn't mean that we're on our way to having all of the semis that you see on interstates running on electrons.

The Tesla Semi in particular has opted for larger batteries than other EV semis. This gives them the ability to travel further, but most day cab trucks aren't used in that manner. They don't drive 500 miles one-way and then stop. They start and finish their days from the same location. Musk himself claimed at one point that 80% of freight in the US is moved less than 250 miles, which is more or less what the gov says:
https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/Moving-Goods-in-the-United-States/bcyt-rqmu/

So a fleet buyer might look at the extra cost for the 1000kwh battery and decide to go another route instead. Or they might be a weight sensitive application, where the additional weight of that huge battery reduces the freight efficiency. If we're worried about climate change, why are we putting 1000kwh batteries into trucks to service a very small portion of the trucking demand? Split that battery into 2 500kwh packs and double the impact. It would reduce the price, improve the freight efficiency, and increase adoption/environmental benefit. Leave the long haul or heavy work stuff for other cleaner tech.

There are several other companies out there doing mid-range (and short range) electric trucks.  So it's been possible for a while now, to buy a truck that can do mid-range routes.  The long term criticism of BEV's was that 'they can't do long haul work'.  Well, the Tesla Semi is the answer to that.  Yes, now they can.

And what I'm saying is that a single 500 mile route in a day cab doesn't really qualify as "long haul". It has no sleeper. There are essentially no chargers to support it. And 500 miles isn't quite a full shift's worth of driving (600-650 miles per shift is fairly common with current ICE trucks). Elon says that the 500 mile trip took 8 hours. A driver's shift is typically 11 hours. That's a 3 hours per day that the Tesla driver isn't moving down the road, which is a pretty big deal in an industry where truck buying decisions are made based on 1% fuel economy differences.

The Tesla Semi is capable of making a very specific 500 mile trip between super expensive, taxpayer funded chargers. Other than that, it's limited to being a short haul truck like all other day cabs, and all other EV semis. The majority of it's use involves starting and finishing it's day at the same location, charging overnight and doing it again the next day. That's not what "long haul" trucking is, and it's probably not currently cost comparative to the status quo.

There's nothing at all wrong with EV semis for short haul work if the financial math or regulations support that. And I don't think there's anything wrong with saying that they don't currently work for long haul duty cycles or usage.

If Tesla were truly going for long haul, "Over the road" trucking the truck would need a sleeper (adding weight and cost to the cab), and it would need closer to 700 miles of range (adding weight and cost to the cab). Both of those choices would obviously hurt the freight efficiency and mean that less freight would be hauled per truckload too. I'm ignoring the lack of charging infrastructure for the sake of simplicity.

So what we have is a truck that can't do actual long haul work (open ended, all day interstate driving to random locations), but one that's probably got far more capability than needed for the vast majority of short haul work. Unless the Tesla is priced similar to other EV semis (giving the buyer more capability for less money), no fleet buyer is going to overpay for capability they don't need. The entire industry is about optimization, and paying for 500 miles of battery capacity when you only really need 200-300 is not optimized. There was supposed to be a shorter range Tesla Semi at some point, but I haven't seen/heard anything about it in a long time. That's the one that would really be enticing for many fleet buyers because the smaller battery would reduce weight and cost, and would likely be better optimized for their usage than a truck that can do more than short haul, but less than long haul.

These are very similar objections that people raised about EV's in general - too expensive, take too long to charge, don't go far enough on a charge, etc....

I'm not saying your points are not valid.  In fact I agree with many of them.  But I also think they are backward looking and not forward looking. 

The biggest issue I see going forward is the charging infrastructure needs to be built out.  If that is accomplished then the rest of the points fade away, IMO. 

Luckily, Tesla seems to be pretty good at building out chargers, and for much cheaper than the rest of the industry.  Hell, look at what they built out (from scratch) for regular BEV's already:



You can see they already have a major presence along the major highways.  For trucking it'd just need to be along these same areas, but larger.  And probably fewer of them.

I'm surprised how few chargers Canada has.  Are they not interest in electric vehicles?  Too cold?

[GuitarStv]

Is all this just over the use of the term "long haul"?  New tech enables new options that may or may not fit into existing classifications, would it make you happy to call the Tesla truck a "longer than short haul" - something else?

Yeah, it more or less comes down to a misunderstanding of what "long haul" truly is, or what jobs batteries are and are not good at.  Lots of people assume incorrectly that all semis are the same, so the Tesla Semi can surely do long haul stuff, and we can then simply extrapolate that we can solve a lot of these issues with more/bigger batteries. We see similar thinking with buses. School buses and city buses are strong candidates for electrification because they do lots of stop and go driving at relatively low speeds, in defined routes. A Greyhound bus or motorcoach is also a bus, but they spend their days traveling long distances at higher speeds on less defined routes. These are not good candidates for batteries.

The fact is that duty cycles matter. Batteries can be great at doing light duty work, or even heavy duty work for short periods of time. They're not a realistic option for lots of tasks that involve hard work for long periods of time, or with limited down time, or lack of access to charging. This is why a Ford Lightning F150 is a terrific Suburban Cowboy commuter or local contractor rig, and a terrible tow vehicle. It's why a Model 3 Performance can be a great drivers car, but can't complete a bunch of fast laps on a race track. Or why a battery powered chainsaw/lawn mower/etc might work great for a homeowner, but can't run all day like a gas one used by professionals.

The Tesla Semi is a day cab. These types of trucks are intended to start and finish their days on the same routes over and over. They have no sleeping accommodations for drivers, they don't typically travel more than a couple hundred miles from a central base. EV trucks can currently do this work reasonably well, and it's an important part of trucking. But it doesn't mean that we're on our way to having all of the semis that you see on interstates running on electrons.

The Tesla Semi in particular has opted for larger batteries than other EV semis. This gives them the ability to travel further, but most day cab trucks aren't used in that manner. They don't drive 500 miles one-way and then stop. They start and finish their days from the same location. Musk himself claimed at one point that 80% of freight in the US is moved less than 250 miles, which is more or less what the gov says:
https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/Moving-Goods-in-the-United-States/bcyt-rqmu/

So a fleet buyer might look at the extra cost for the 1000kwh battery and decide to go another route instead. Or they might be a weight sensitive application, where the additional weight of that huge battery reduces the freight efficiency. If we're worried about climate change, why are we putting 1000kwh batteries into trucks to service a very small portion of the trucking demand? Split that battery into 2 500kwh packs and double the impact. It would reduce the price, improve the freight efficiency, and increase adoption/environmental benefit. Leave the long haul or heavy work stuff for other cleaner tech.

There are several other companies out there doing mid-range (and short range) electric trucks.  So it's been possible for a while now, to buy a truck that can do mid-range routes.  The long term criticism of BEV's was that 'they can't do long haul work'.  Well, the Tesla Semi is the answer to that.  Yes, now they can.

And what I'm saying is that a single 500 mile route in a day cab doesn't really qualify as "long haul". It has no sleeper. There are essentially no chargers to support it. And 500 miles isn't quite a full shift's worth of driving (600-650 miles per shift is fairly common with current ICE trucks). Elon says that the 500 mile trip took 8 hours. A driver's shift is typically 11 hours. That's a 3 hours per day that the Tesla driver isn't moving down the road, which is a pretty big deal in an industry where truck buying decisions are made based on 1% fuel economy differences.

The Tesla Semi is capable of making a very specific 500 mile trip between super expensive, taxpayer funded chargers. Other than that, it's limited to being a short haul truck like all other day cabs, and all other EV semis. The majority of it's use involves starting and finishing it's day at the same location, charging overnight and doing it again the next day. That's not what "long haul" trucking is, and it's probably not currently cost comparative to the status quo.

There's nothing at all wrong with EV semis for short haul work if the financial math or regulations support that. And I don't think there's anything wrong with saying that they don't currently work for long haul duty cycles or usage.

If Tesla were truly going for long haul, "Over the road" trucking the truck would need a sleeper (adding weight and cost to the cab), and it would need closer to 700 miles of range (adding weight and cost to the cab). Both of those choices would obviously hurt the freight efficiency and mean that less freight would be hauled per truckload too. I'm ignoring the lack of charging infrastructure for the sake of simplicity.

So what we have is a truck that can't do actual long haul work (open ended, all day interstate driving to random locations), but one that's probably got far more capability than needed for the vast majority of short haul work. Unless the Tesla is priced similar to other EV semis (giving the buyer more capability for less money), no fleet buyer is going to overpay for capability they don't need. The entire industry is about optimization, and paying for 500 miles of battery capacity when you only really need 200-300 is not optimized. There was supposed to be a shorter range Tesla Semi at some point, but I haven't seen/heard anything about it in a long time. That's the one that would really be enticing for many fleet buyers because the smaller battery would reduce weight and cost, and would likely be better optimized for their usage than a truck that can do more than short haul, but less than long haul.

These are very similar objections that people raised about EV's in general - too expensive, take too long to charge, don't go far enough on a charge, etc....

I'm not saying your points are not valid.  In fact I agree with many of them.  But I also think they are backward looking and not forward looking. 

The biggest issue I see going forward is the charging infrastructure needs to be built out.  If that is accomplished then the rest of the points fade away, IMO. 

Luckily, Tesla seems to be pretty good at building out chargers, and for much cheaper than the rest of the industry.  Hell, look at what they built out (from scratch) for regular BEV's already:



You can see they already have a major presence along the major highways.  For trucking it'd just need to be along these same areas, but larger.  And probably fewer of them.

I'm surprised how few chargers Canada has.  Are they not interest in electric vehicles?  Too cold?

We have about 1/10th the population of the US and that population is mostly located in the more southern regions of Canada . . . I suspect it's a demand thing.  Although our government keeps promising that we'll get better EV infrastructure.

[nereo]

I'm surprised how few chargers Canada has.  Are they not interest in electric vehicles?  Too cold?

Just looking at that charger map I can see that it's either outdated or not including all fast chargers for whatever reason. 

There are a bunch in Quebec, NB and Maine which are not listed on this map, some of which have been in operation since at least 2021 (have used them personally). It also looks like my favorite chargers in NH aren't on this map either.  In Quebec chargers are all over the place - partly because they are being heavily subsidized by Hydro Quebec (the publicly owned utility).


.... this is one area where I get frustrated.  Roughly half of all public L2 and L3 chargers in the US have been installed in the last 18 months, yet people look at maps from a couple years ago and make conclusions based on woefully incomplete data.

[nereo]

Here's a snapshot of just the L3 (DC fast chargers) in Quebec, Canada.  On the map posted above there's only 3 map points (Montreal, Quebec and what looks like Rimouski.

In reality there are hundreds (277 in this map-view along). 
For reference, this covers roughly the QUebec/Ontario boarder in the west to about 25km east of Quebec City.

[pecunia]

Here's a snapshot of just the L3 (DC fast chargers) in Quebec, Canada.  On the map posted above there's only 3 map points (Montreal, Quebec and what looks like Rimouski.

In reality there are hundreds (277 in this map-view along). 
For reference, this covers roughly the QUebec/Ontario boarder in the west to about 25km east of Quebec City.

Bicycling is supposed to be good there too.  The province must be progressive.

[kenmoremmm]

When you zoom into those charging maps, you see many more stations pop up.

From my limited experience traveling in WA, ID, and BC, BC has a much better infrastructure for high speed charging along Hwy 1 and 3 compared to I-90 in WA and ID. I suspect I-90 gets at least 20x the traffic volume as Hwy 3.

[GilesMM]

Apparently EV sales are cooling rapidly...


https://www.businessinsider.com/dealers-turning-away-evs-velectric-cars-demand-cools-inventory-2023-8

[GuitarStv]

Dealers have always been against electric cars, and previously have done everything they can to tank sales.  Is this another case of more of the same?

[JLee]

Apparently EV sales are cooling rapidly...


https://www.businessinsider.com/dealers-turning-away-evs-velectric-cars-demand-cools-inventory-2023-8

https://insideevs.com/news/680467/global-ev-sales-june2023-plugin-cars/

[GilesMM]

Dealers have always been against electric cars, and previously have done everything they can to tank sales.  Is this another case of more of the same?

Why? I thought dealers would happily sell anything they can.  But if the cars are not selling as fast as they are being made, then inventory builds and who wants cars sitting around?

[neo von retorch]

I agree that the article sounds like a few specific dealers that are complaining, rather than proper evidence of a slowdown. But @JLee posted global numbers rather than U.S., so it's not apples to apples either.

https://insideevs.com/news/681553/us-bev-registrations-jun2023/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/cars/electric-cars-sales-gas-cars-dg/index.html

The CNN article tries to be more nuanced, but also bases most of its conclusion on "projections from the US Energy Information Administration."

My unimportant opinion... I think VW is just getting started here in the U.S. GM and Ford are trying but haven't brought (more) affordable models (excluding the defunct Bolt) to compete in the under $40k market. I continue to be shocked how many people are willing to cough up the money for Teslas. *shrug*

[GuitarStv]

Dealers have always been against electric cars, and previously have done everything they can to tank sales.  Is this another case of more of the same?

Why? I thought dealers would happily sell anything they can.  But if the cars are not selling as fast as they are being made, then inventory builds and who wants cars sitting around?

Maintenance.  Maintenance, oil changes, and other services are a huge part of dealer profit.  And that's significantly reduced with EVs.

[JLee]

I agree that the article sounds like a few specific dealers that are complaining, rather than proper evidence of a slowdown. But @JLee posted global numbers rather than U.S., so it's not apples to apples either.

https://insideevs.com/news/681553/us-bev-registrations-jun2023/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/cars/electric-cars-sales-gas-cars-dg/index.html

The CNN article tries to be more nuanced, but also bases most of its conclusion on "projections from the US Energy Information Administration."

My unimportant opinion... I think VW is just getting started here in the U.S. GM and Ford are trying but haven't brought (more) affordable models (excluding the defunct Bolt) to compete in the under $40k market. I continue to be shocked how many people are willing to cough up the money for Teslas. *shrug*

Teslas aren't that expensive, especially with the federal tax credit coming back. A top trim Camry hybrid is $34k, and a Model 3 can be ~$33k after tax credit.

[GilesMM]

Dealers have always been against electric cars, and previously have done everything they can to tank sales.  Is this another case of more of the same?

Why? I thought dealers would happily sell anything they can.  But if the cars are not selling as fast as they are being made, then inventory builds and who wants cars sitting around?

Maintenance.  Maintenance, oil changes, and other services are a huge part of dealer profit.  And that's significantly reduced with EVs.

Not sure how that would cause a sudden oversupply.

[GuitarStv]

Dealers have always been against electric cars, and previously have done everything they can to tank sales.  Is this another case of more of the same?

Why? I thought dealers would happily sell anything they can.  But if the cars are not selling as fast as they are being made, then inventory builds and who wants cars sitting around?

Maintenance.  Maintenance, oil changes, and other services are a huge part of dealer profit.  And that's significantly reduced with EVs.

Not sure how that would cause a sudden oversupply.

In the past, dealers have been found to purposely not sell EVs.  Lie about problems, undersell, try to swap gas for battery vehicles, pretend that they didn't have any EVs on the lot to sell, that sort of stuff.  All of which causes them to have an oversupply that they can complain about to the car company (who wants to sell the EVs).

[Just Joe]

I feel like the big three know exactly what they are doing - riding the ICE profit all the way to the end. Oh, people want EVs? Sure, we have those too. Mostly very expensive EVs.

Still not motivated to spend $50K+. 

[pecunia]

Apparently EV sales are cooling rapidly...


https://www.businessinsider.com/dealers-turning-away-evs-velectric-cars-demand-cools-inventory-2023-8

I don't think electric bicycle sales have cooled much.  I see more and more.  Yesterday, I saw one that could have been a motorcycle in the 1950s movie, "The Wild One."

https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-bikes-popularity-sustainability-evs-2023-4

[2sk22]

Its easy to blame dealers but I think there is something to the assertion that the early adopters have all bought their fill of EVs and its going to be a bit harder to get the next batch of buyers.

Who all aren't buying EVs?
- People like me with relatively new ICE vehicle
- Those who live in apartments and simply can't keep an EV
- Those who can't afford an EV despite the tax breaks
- People whose use case does not mesh well with current realities of EV charging

[JLee]

Its easy to blame dealers but I think there is something to the assertion that the early adopters have all bought their fill of EVs and its going to be a bit harder to get the next batch of buyers.

Who all aren't buying EVs?
- People like me with relatively new ICE vehicle
- Those who live in apartments and simply can't keep an EV
- Those who can't afford an EV despite the tax breaks
- People whose use case does not mesh well with current realities of EV charging

It also sounds like a bunch of fear-mongering journalism. It'll be interesting to see what the actual sales numbers are.

https://insideevs.com/news/667516/us-electric-car-sales-2023q1/

Q1 2023 was up 63% YoY.  Hopefully we'll have Q2 numbers soon, but also note that sales plateauing (at a number dramatically higher than 1-2 years ago) is very different than sales stopping.

[neo von retorch]

I agree that the article sounds like a few specific dealers that are complaining, rather than proper evidence of a slowdown. But @JLee posted global numbers rather than U.S., so it's not apples to apples either.

https://insideevs.com/news/681553/us-bev-registrations-jun2023/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/cars/electric-cars-sales-gas-cars-dg/index.html

The CNN article tries to be more nuanced, but also bases most of its conclusion on "projections from the US Energy Information Administration."

My unimportant opinion... I think VW is just getting started here in the U.S. GM and Ford are trying but haven't brought (more) affordable models (excluding the defunct Bolt) to compete in the under $40k market. I continue to be shocked how many people are willing to cough up the money for Teslas. *shrug*

Teslas aren't that expensive, especially with the federal tax credit coming back. A top trim Camry hybrid is $34k, and a Model 3 can be ~$33k after tax credit.

But you're comparing a "top trim" Camry to an entry level Model 3. Meanwhile, Model Y sales are the ones increasing, while it starts at ~$51-54k (entry level trim.)

I don't suspect people are cross-shopping the Camry and Model 3 (or Model Y) - but if they were, they'd be facing the up front cost before credit, and the loaded Camry and wondering if it's really worth that extra money. If they are sold on EV, then sure - but then they aren't cross-shopping a Camry. They just don't have other good options at that price point. But going on average transaction prices, I don't think "entry level Model 3 after tax credit" is the most common scenario.

[nereo]

Its easy to blame dealers but I think there is something to the assertion that the early adopters have all bought their fill of EVs and its going to be a bit harder to get the next batch of buyers.

Who all aren't buying EVs?
- People like me with relatively new ICE vehicle
- Those who live in apartments and simply can't keep an EV
- Those who can't afford an EV despite the tax breaks
- People whose use case does not mesh well with current realities of EV charging

I’m having a hard time seeing any of those as being barriers to BEV adaptation.
The average length of time a buyer owns a car is around 8 years, with roughly 1/3rd of buyers updating their cars every 5 years or less.

Likewise, the apartment issue impacts both a minority of adults (only about 1/3 of all households) and is rapidly being addressed. In many municipalities (including my own) there’s a recent push to require chargers in all apartment parking structures, plus those that can charge at work (also becoming much more common). Even when those options fail the fast-charging L3 network is a perfectly available option.

The median cost of a new car in Q2 of 2023 is $48k. There are a number of EV models which can be purchased for less, even before tax credits

The ‘use case’ of drivers who cannot mush with EV charging is rapidly shrinking to such a small percentage of drivers that it will soon be less than 2%, and is probably less than 10% now. The number of L2 and L3 chargers has doubled in the last year, and is projected to double again in the next 12 months.

[JLee]

I agree that the article sounds like a few specific dealers that are complaining, rather than proper evidence of a slowdown. But @JLee posted global numbers rather than U.S., so it's not apples to apples either.

https://insideevs.com/news/681553/us-bev-registrations-jun2023/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/cars/electric-cars-sales-gas-cars-dg/index.html

The CNN article tries to be more nuanced, but also bases most of its conclusion on "projections from the US Energy Information Administration."

My unimportant opinion... I think VW is just getting started here in the U.S. GM and Ford are trying but haven't brought (more) affordable models (excluding the defunct Bolt) to compete in the under $40k market. I continue to be shocked how many people are willing to cough up the money for Teslas. *shrug*

Teslas aren't that expensive, especially with the federal tax credit coming back. A top trim Camry hybrid is $34k, and a Model 3 can be ~$33k after tax credit.

But you're comparing a "top trim" Camry to an entry level Model 3. Meanwhile, Model Y sales are the ones increasing, while it starts at ~$51-54k (entry level trim.)

I don't suspect people are cross-shopping the Camry and Model 3 (or Model Y) - but if they were, they'd be facing the up front cost before credit, and the loaded Camry and wondering if it's really worth that extra money. If they are sold on EV, then sure - but then they aren't cross-shopping a Camry. They just don't have other good options at that price point. But going on average transaction prices, I don't think "entry level Model 3 after tax credit" is the most common scenario.

I went with a Camry because it's a cheaper option and not in the luxury / luxury-adjacent space where Tesla tends to be placed.  Going with BMW instead, a base 3 series starts at $44.5k. A Model Y is closer to a BMW X3 (crossover/SUV) -- an X3 M (e.g. Model Y Performance) is $75.5k starting, vs a MYP at $55k before tax credit.  Base X3 is $47k, vs base Model Y at $48k (again before tax credit).

I'm confused as to why you "continue to be shocked" that people are willing to spend money on Teslas when the average new car transaction price is pushing $50k. It seems you're more shocked that people are willing to spend money on cars in general than specifically Tesla?

[charis]

I'm confused as to why you "continue to be shocked" that people are willing to spend money on Teslas when the average new car transaction price is pushing $50k. It seems you're more shocked that people are willing to spend money on cars in general than specifically Tesla?

I, for one, am shocked by this, particularly in this forum.  There are a number of new EVs for less than a Tesla, not to mention used ones.

[neo von retorch]

I'm confused as to why you "continue to be shocked" that people are willing to spend money on Teslas when the average new car transaction price is pushing $50k. It seems you're more shocked that people are willing to spend money on cars in general than specifically Tesla?

Well a) I wish the industry was better at representing the mean and not the median which they are calling "average" but I don't trust. And b) yes $50k for a new car is bat insane!! We have one car and we replaced it and spent $29k for a brand new, very well-equipped mid-sized SUV. We did this in part because the used car market is insane, and my nephew needed a car, so we sold him ours. We looked a 5 year old vehicle with slightly less equipment than the new one for roughly the same price and just decided to go new. And we got a 2.9% loan (36 months) for some of the expense rather than pull money out of investments. We were stupid clown car spendypants!

But yeah, why would you buy a $40k+ vehicle (after waiting all year for a huge tax credit to show up) when you could buy a car for under $30k? Why are people buying $40k+ vehicles and $60k+ trucks? It's insane. Maybe Tesla got a lot nicer but when I sat in a $60k Model 3 a colleague had bought several years ago, it felt like a clinical Corolla with a fancy powertrain. As a $50k car, I didn't understand why anyone would want it. Sure at $33k, it makes sense if the range/powertrain/fanciness meets your needs, but it's still more than I would prefer to pay for a car.

But YEAH - I get it. I'm weird. I was weird before MMM, and now I've got new weirdness. Most of my cars were "weird" vehicles to the mainstream. Hatchbacks, clutch your pearls! A 2-door Honda Prelude? What is it a prelude to, a real car? A sedan? An SUV? You're so weird! I find it so weird that so many people wanted Corollas and Camrys and now they want Model 3s an Model Ys. That's my opinion and it won't change even if it is what normal people want. The fact that a lot of these vehicles are "mainstream" but also $50k really blows my mind, though. What is wrong with these people?!

[sonofsven]

Regarding using non taxed diesel on the road: now that the statute of limitations has passed, I will admit to using heating oil for years in my diesel van.
I was doing a lot of whole house remodels 20+ years ago and every one of them was pulling out an old oil ( diesel ) tank and furnace and installing natural gas.
The companies that were decommissioning the tanks would remove the oil, and charge more per gallon than the cost of the oil.
I provided this service to my clients for free ;-)

[GilesMM]

Its easy to blame dealers but I think there is something to the assertion that the early adopters have all bought their fill of EVs and its going to be a bit harder to get the next batch of buyers.

Who all aren't buying EVs?
- People like me with relatively new ICE vehicle
- Those who live in apartments and simply can't keep an EV
- Those who can't afford an EV despite the tax breaks
- People whose use case does not mesh well with current realities of EV charging

I agree.  Can't blame dealers when automakers forecast more demand than is being realized.  Inventories are high - what dealer wants a lot full of EVs that are hard to sell?

[GilesMM]

Regarding using non taxed diesel on the road: now that the statute of limitations has passed, I will admit to using heating oil for years in my diesel van.
I was doing a lot of whole house remodels 20+ years ago and every one of them was pulling out an old oil ( diesel ) tank and furnace and installing natural gas.
The companies that were decommissioning the tanks would remove the oil, and charge more per gallon than the cost of the oil.
I provided this service to my clients for free ;-)

Was that illegal?  I'm not sure it is.  Using biodiesel from french fry oil is legal AFAIK.

[sonofsven]

Regarding using non taxed diesel on the road: now that the statute of limitations has passed, I will admit to using heating oil for years in my diesel van.
I was doing a lot of whole house remodels 20+ years ago and every one of them was pulling out an old oil ( diesel ) tank and furnace and installing natural gas.
The companies that were decommissioning the tanks would remove the oil, and charge more per gallon than the cost of the oil.
I provided this service to my clients for free ;-)

Was that illegal?  I'm not sure it is.  Using biodiesel from french fry oil is legal AFAIK.

Yes, it was illegal. Home heating oil in the US is the same as off road diesel and so it works fine in diesel vehicles, but it is not taxed for road use.
Using fry oil to make biodiesel is different, and not illegal.
You can also run a diesel on straight fry oil if you filter it and pre heat it. Just don't shut down the engine while it's running on straight fry oil or you will have a congealed mess on your hands.

[JLee]

I'm confused as to why you "continue to be shocked" that people are willing to spend money on Teslas when the average new car transaction price is pushing $50k. It seems you're more shocked that people are willing to spend money on cars in general than specifically Tesla?

I, for one, am shocked by this, particularly in this forum.  There are a number of new EVs for less than a Tesla, not to mention used ones.

Indeed, and there's one in my driveway.  My specific argument was why specifically target Tesla at that price point instead of all cars at that price point?

[pecunia]

Regarding using non taxed diesel on the road: now that the statute of limitations has passed, I will admit to using heating oil for years in my diesel van.
I was doing a lot of whole house remodels 20+ years ago and every one of them was pulling out an old oil ( diesel ) tank and furnace and installing natural gas.
The companies that were decommissioning the tanks would remove the oil, and charge more per gallon than the cost of the oil.
I provided this service to my clients for free ;-)

Was that illegal?  I'm not sure it is.  Using biodiesel from french fry oil is legal AFAIK.

Yes, it was illegal. Home heating oil in the US is the same as off road diesel and so it works fine in diesel vehicles, but it is not taxed for road use.
Using fry oil to make biodiesel is different, and not illegal.
You can also run a diesel on straight fry oil if you filter it and pre heat it. Just don't shut down the engine while it's running on straight fry oil or you will have a congealed mess on your hands.

Can you coal roll with french fry oil?

[charis]

I'm confused as to why you "continue to be shocked" that people are willing to spend money on Teslas when the average new car transaction price is pushing $50k. It seems you're more shocked that people are willing to spend money on cars in general than specifically Tesla?

I, for one, am shocked by this, particularly in this forum.  There are a number of new EVs for less than a Tesla, not to mention used ones.

Indeed, and there's one in my driveway.  My specific argument was why specifically target Tesla at that price point instead of all cars at that price point?

Because we are talking EVs, not all 50k cars, of which Tesla is the most common ~50k ev that people are buying

[Just Joe]

I'm confused as to why you "continue to be shocked" that people are willing to spend money on Teslas when the average new car transaction price is pushing $50k. It seems you're more shocked that people are willing to spend money on cars in general than specifically Tesla?

Count me as one shocked that many people are spending $50K+ on any car whatever the power source. Do people really have this much money or are they part of a growing debt bubble?

I absolutely won't spend like that. I can, but won't. It is a depreciating asset that sits is vulnerable in parking lots and sits outside in my driveway.

Edited for typos.

[Just Joe]

Regarding using non taxed diesel on the road: now that the statute of limitations has passed, I will admit to using heating oil for years in my diesel van.
I was doing a lot of whole house remodels 20+ years ago and every one of them was pulling out an old oil ( diesel ) tank and furnace and installing natural gas.
The companies that were decommissioning the tanks would remove the oil, and charge more per gallon than the cost of the oil.
I provided this service to my clients for free ;-)

I'm far enough south I've never known anyone using heating oil. Did not know that the two fuels were close enough to be substitutes. I don't blame you one bit. Why waste it - yeah, yeah - rules, etc.

[Just Joe]

Speaking of $50K: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2enBRbJaT4c

I was following along, agreeing with most of his points. Yeah, I too want a low cost, lightweight, low speed local use EV (XBus doublecab pickup). Yeah, safety, safety. But motorcycle!

I ride motorcycles and ebikes and drive vintage vehicles. Clearly safety is not my primary motivator. I live in a good place for these activities i.e. not a busy metro area where part of my daily drives involve fast stroads or interstates.

Then with all the vintage and EV limitations he drops the $50K price tag. Ahhh, no.

Basic transport with capability limitations baked in should never cost more than a real car. Bespoke vintage reproduction cars - whatever. Doesn't matter - here in the "Land of the Free" we'd never be allowed to import and register one of those. Safer than a motorcycle or a vintage Model-A Ford (both of which are legal) or a DIY hot rod but still can't have one.

[Tyson]

I agree that $50k is very expensive.  I also remember when 3 years was the standard length of a car loan.  Now it seems to be 5 years.

[RWD]

I agree that $50k is very expensive.  I also remember when 3 years was the standard length of a car loan.  Now it seems to be 5 years.

I believe 6 years is more common now.
https://www.lendingtree.com/auto/debt-statistics/#Averageautoloanterms

[nereo]

I agree that $50k is very expensive.  I also remember when 3 years was the standard length of a car loan.  Now it seems to be 5 years.

I believe 6 years is more common now.
https://www.lendingtree.com/auto/debt-statistics/#Averageautoloanterms

When we were buying our EV they kept trying to steer us to a 7 year (84 month) loan, at 6.3%
The finance officer seemed very skeptical of us wanting to do 36 month with the intent to pay it off in under a year. Sadly, delays in delivery resulted in us completely missing the sub-3% car loan offers.

[charis]

I agree that $50k is very expensive.  I also remember when 3 years was the standard length of a car loan.  Now it seems to be 5 years.

I believe 6 years is more common now.
https://www.lendingtree.com/auto/debt-statistics/#Averageautoloanterms

When we were buying our EV they kept trying to steer us to a 7 year (84 month) loan, at 6.3%
The finance officer seemed very skeptical of us wanting to do 36 month with the intent to pay it off in under a year. Sadly, delays in delivery resulted in us completely missing the sub-3% car loan offers.

We bought a used EV in cash, which wasn't my first choice, but I wasn't seeing any finance offers of less then 7-8%.

[jinga nation]

Regarding using non taxed diesel on the road: now that the statute of limitations has passed, I will admit to using heating oil for years in my diesel van.
I was doing a lot of whole house remodels 20+ years ago and every one of them was pulling out an old oil ( diesel ) tank and furnace and installing natural gas.
The companies that were decommissioning the tanks would remove the oil, and charge more per gallon than the cost of the oil.
I provided this service to my clients for free ;-)

Was that illegal?  I'm not sure it is.  Using biodiesel from french fry oil is legal AFAIK.

Yes, it was illegal. Home heating oil in the US is the same as off road diesel and so it works fine in diesel vehicles, but it is not taxed for road use.
Using fry oil to make biodiesel is different, and not illegal.
You can also run a diesel on straight fry oil if you filter it and pre heat it. Just don't shut down the engine while it's running on straight fry oil or you will have a congealed mess on your hands.

Can you coal roll with french fry oil?

Maybe. But it'd be a fried chicken and waffle fries aroma. ;-p
Coal roll to drive fast food sales. Genius move, you heard it here first.

[Financial.Velociraptor]

Can you coal roll with french fry oil?

Maybe. But it'd be a fried chicken and waffle fries aroma. ;-p
Coal roll to drive fast food sales. Genius move, you heard it here first.

Potatoes will already roll down a hill.  I propose we call it Rolling Potatoes!

[pecunia]

The more I read about all the BS there is with charging these electric cars on trips, the more I think these range extender motors are attractive.  If Mazda could put a small rotary engine helper in my future electric car, it could save me a big hassle some day.  It would also mean less battery to haul around.  Sure it's not quite as environmentally friendly, but I've never been one to stay up nights worrying about my carbon footprint.

[nereo]

The more I read about all the BS there is with charging these electric cars on trips, the more I think these range extender motors are attractive.  If Mazda could put a small rotary engine helper in my future electric car, it could save me a big hassle some day.  It would also mean less battery to haul around.  Sure it's not quite as environmentally friendly, but I've never been one to stay up nights worrying about my carbon footprint.

What you are describing is a PHEV. They can be wonderful (I own one, as do my parents), and I highly recommend them to people - especially those that can’t accept the current charging infrastructure differences. For most people it will result in an 80-90% reduction in fuel consumption, and PHEVs have a much lower carbon footprint than ICE vehicles, only being surpassed by BEVs during the second half of their life expectancies.

[dandarc]

The more I read about all the BS there is with charging these electric cars on trips, the more I think these range extender motors are attractive.  If Mazda could put a small rotary engine helper in my future electric car, it could save me a big hassle some day.  It would also mean less battery to haul around.  Sure it's not quite as environmentally friendly, but I've never been one to stay up nights worrying about my carbon footprint.

What you are describing is a PHEV. They can be wonderful (I own one, as do my parents), and I highly recommend them to people - especially those that can’t accept the current charging infrastructure differences. For most people it will result in an 80-90% reduction in fuel consumption, and PHEVs have a much lower carbon footprint than ICE vehicles, only being surpassed by BEVs during the second half of their life expectancies.

Plus with the plug-in hybrid, the motor can power the vehicle directly when needed. The smaller that rotary "just to charge the battery" motor is, the less the chance it can generate electricity fast enough to keep the car performance more or less normal when the battery is low enough you really need the extra range.

[LennStar]

The more I read about all the BS there is with charging these electric cars on trips, the more I think these range extender motors are attractive.  If Mazda could put a small rotary engine helper in my future electric car, it could save me a big hassle some day.  It would also mean less battery to haul around.  Sure it's not quite as environmentally friendly, but I've never been one to stay up nights worrying about my carbon footprint.

What you are describing is a PHEV. They can be wonderful (I own one, as do my parents), and I highly recommend them to people - especially those that can’t accept the current charging infrastructure differences. For most people it will result in an 80-90% reduction in fuel consumption, and PHEVs have a much lower carbon footprint than ICE vehicles, only being surpassed by BEVs during the second half of their life expectancies.

Plus with the plug-in hybrid, the motor can power the vehicle directly when needed. The smaller that rotary "just to charge the battery" motor is, the less the chance it can generate electricity fast enough to keep the car performance more or less normal when the battery is low enough you really need the extra range.

I don't think they even build cars with a motor so weak it can't get your car to 100km/h / 70 miles. Okay, maybe those f*** huge F-150&Co actually need 50PS to do that with their air resistance and weight, but still.

[pecunia]

The more I read about all the BS there is with charging these electric cars on trips, the more I think these range extender motors are attractive.  If Mazda could put a small rotary engine helper in my future electric car, it could save me a big hassle some day.  It would also mean less battery to haul around.  Sure it's not quite as environmentally friendly, but I've never been one to stay up nights worrying about my carbon footprint.

What you are describing is a PHEV. They can be wonderful (I own one, as do my parents), and I highly recommend them to people - especially those that can’t accept the current charging infrastructure differences. For most people it will result in an 80-90% reduction in fuel consumption, and PHEVs have a much lower carbon footprint than ICE vehicles, only being surpassed by BEVs during the second half of their life expectancies.

Plus with the plug-in hybrid, the motor can power the vehicle directly when needed. The smaller that rotary "just to charge the battery" motor is, the less the chance it can generate electricity fast enough to keep the car performance more or less normal when the battery is low enough you really need the extra range.

I don't think they even build cars with a motor so weak it can't get your car to 100km/h / 70 miles. Okay, maybe those f*** huge F-150&Co actually need 50PS to do that with their air resistance and weight, but still.

The old air cooled VW 1200 CC engines got to 60 miles / hour (96 km /hour).  I would think if you had a one liter engine with a turbo it would work just fine.  Here's the other thing to consider.  It doesn't run as many hours as a "normal" car.   The battery will do the job for the small trips which make up the bulk of one's travel.  Even with that turbo, the engine should last a long time.

That does look like a good compromise.  I'm going on 4 years with my car and have about 16,000 miles on it so I suspect the electric car market will be mature before I need another vehicle.

[nereo]

The more I read about all the BS there is with charging these electric cars on trips, the more I think these range extender motors are attractive.  If Mazda could put a small rotary engine helper in my future electric car, it could save me a big hassle some day.  It would also mean less battery to haul around.  Sure it's not quite as environmentally friendly, but I've never been one to stay up nights worrying about my carbon footprint.

What you are describing is a PHEV. They can be wonderful (I own one, as do my parents), and I highly recommend them to people - especially those that can’t accept the current charging infrastructure differences. For most people it will result in an 80-90% reduction in fuel consumption, and PHEVs have a much lower carbon footprint than ICE vehicles, only being surpassed by BEVs during the second half of their life expectancies.

Plus with the plug-in hybrid, the motor can power the vehicle directly when needed. The smaller that rotary "just to charge the battery" motor is, the less the chance it can generate electricity fast enough to keep the car performance more or less normal when the battery is low enough you really need the extra range.

I don't think they even build cars with a motor so weak it can't get your car to 100km/h / 70 miles. Okay, maybe those f*** huge F-150&Co actually need 50PS to do that with their air resistance and weight, but still.

The old air cooled VW 1200 CC engines got to 60 miles / hour (96 km /hour).  I would think if you had a one liter engine with a turbo it would work just fine.  Here's the other thing to consider.  It doesn't run as many hours as a "normal" car.   The battery will do the job for the small trips which make up the bulk of one's travel.  Even with that turbo, the engine should last a long time.

That does look like a good compromise.  I'm going on 4 years with my car and have about 16,000 miles on it so I suspect the electric car market will be mature before I need another vehicle.

For another data-point, my parent's Volt recently passed 120,000 miles, but had fewer than 17,000 miles on the engine during that timeframe. On average the engine was powering the car for less than 50 miles each week, despite the car being driven pretty extensively.  They bought fuel less than once per month.

[caracarn]

I agree that $50k is very expensive.  I also remember when 3 years was the standard length of a car loan.  Now it seems to be 5 years.

I believe 6 years is more common now.
https://www.lendingtree.com/auto/debt-statistics/#Averageautoloanterms

Having a couple folks in our family that have worked for dealerships the common loans these days at 7-9 years.  5 years was gone a LONG time ago.

[GilesMM]

I agree that $50k is very expensive.  I also remember when 3 years was the standard length of a car loan.  Now it seems to be 5 years.

I believe 6 years is more common now.
https://www.lendingtree.com/auto/debt-statistics/#Averageautoloanterms

Having a couple folks in our family that have worked for dealerships the common loans these days at 7-9 years.  5 years was gone a LONG time ago.

Back when they had 0% interest loans it made sense to get the longest loan period you possibly could.  You would be nuts not to, as long as the sales price was fair.