Author Topic: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?  (Read 523576 times)

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2650 on: November 02, 2022, 12:11:36 PM »
Okay, it's good to know that nobody really thinks EVs are any sort of magic bullet, despite the policy attention to them.

It's dispiriting that so much of our environmental policy seems deeply unserious.  We'll write government checks to automakers and well off consumers, but we won't institute a carbon tax, much less a national greenbelt policy.  This stuff costs more or less nothing but political will/capital, and yet we won't do it.

Until we're willing to use state power to take some lifestyle options off the table or price them out of reach of the vast majority (sprawl, casual flights, ginormous houses), I'm not convinced any of this (waves hands at trendy environmental solutions) is going to amount to much.

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2651 on: November 02, 2022, 12:16:51 PM »
It's dispiriting that so much of our environmental policy seems deeply unserious.

Real change is now hard enough that it's not going to be possible to get most people to agree to it.  So all we can hope for are little things that keep the status quo exactly the way it is.  We still have a huge portion of the population arguing that human caused climate change is natural variation, not due to CO2, not a big deal, etc.  That's only going to grow as the fixes become more severe and less palatable in the future.

BicycleB

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2652 on: November 02, 2022, 02:29:17 PM »
Okay, it's good to know that nobody really thinks EVs are any sort of magic bullet, despite the policy attention to them.

It's dispiriting that so much of our environmental policy seems deeply unserious.  We'll write government checks to automakers and well off consumers, but we won't institute a carbon tax, much less a national greenbelt policy.  This stuff costs more or less nothing but political will/capital, and yet we won't do it.

Until we're willing to use state power to take some lifestyle options off the table or price them out of reach of the vast majority (sprawl, casual flights, ginormous houses), I'm not convinced any of this (waves hands at trendy environmental solutions) is going to amount to much.

It's up to you what you convince yourself of, your mind's your business. But on the merits, there are some reasons to think that partial solutions (if you will) like EVs can contribute to substantial progress.

For example, greener power generation and a switch to EVs reinforce each other. If you drive 20% farther in your EV but now you're using power that's 70% renewable, carbon emissions from the drive are suddenly in the ballpark of 64% lower (1.2 x .3 = .36; 1-.36= .64) despite the increased use. The assumption that all moves toward progress net out and defeat themselves is false. The more we build greener systems, the cheaper and more effective they invidually become. Improving cost curves from higher volume may increase usage, but may save more than the increase. So "government checks to automakers and well-off consumers" can shift us toward a better system even though these triggers won't magically solve all problems in a single step.

I've publicly advocated for a carbon tax for years (for anonymity, I do not include all info from my life in this forum) so I agree with you that's a more powerful policy than mere targeted production and consumption incentives. But in a world where political opposition limits the options in some our democracies, incentives are a serious move toward progress in that they allow immediate action with a chance to build toward long term reinforcing solutions.

PS. I have a friend who likes feeling bad because he is convinced it motivates him to work harder. If you wish to be dispirited, feel free. I don't blame you, plenty of discouraging data and viewpoints are around! However if you wish to not be dispirited, you just want to have real reasons instead of false hope, here's a story I personally experienced. 25 years ago I attended a public meeting in my city where some crazy enviro nut was raving (ok, passionately presenting a farfetched plan) suggesting that we should increase our growing city's use of renewable energy from something in the 1% or less range to a huge wild 30% that everyone thought was impossible, and said that we should attempt this impossible scheme in 30 years. Well, a watered down plan to take steps toward some elements of his proposal passed and guess what: We absolutely blew his targets out of the water despite the slow start. We passed 47% in 2021, and by his 30 year target, we are on track for about 60% - literally double his ambitious target!
« Last Edit: November 02, 2022, 02:57:55 PM by BicycleB »

LennStar

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2653 on: November 02, 2022, 02:51:14 PM »
If you drive 20% farther in your EV but now you're using power that's 70% renewable, carbon emissions from the drive are suddenly in the ballpark of 64% lower (1.2 x .3 = .36; 1-.36= .64)
No, because if you drive 20% more, you also need more roads. Roads means climate damage, by building, by sealed ground...

BicycleB

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2654 on: November 02, 2022, 03:08:18 PM »
If you drive 20% farther in your EV but now you're using power that's 70% renewable, carbon emissions from the drive are suddenly in the ballpark of 64% lower (1.2 x .3 = .36; 1-.36= .64)
No, because if you drive 20% more, you also need more roads. Roads means climate damage, by building, by sealed ground...

Yes, building techniques need to become less carbon-emitting and more carbon-capturing. Each element we use needs to improve. Getting some of them onto the improvement path ASAP is important.

I'm not arguing for cars per se. I'm arguing that, as Bill Gates suggests, we need to implement low- to no-carbon practices throughout our global economy regardless of which specific tech is used; that implementing improvements can spark further cost improvements due to increased volume; and that improvements from intersecting realms can reinforce.

If you can convince everyone to switch to bikes and walking and a few buses and barges and a lot of telework, I'll clap happily and join you. But making sure each major tech that people want to use is increasingly lower-carbon is probably the most reliable path forward, rather than just pinning our hopes on an uncertain and perhaps unlikely behavioral change that is currently not occurring at the needed pace.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2022, 03:10:10 PM by BicycleB »

Tyson

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2655 on: November 02, 2022, 03:35:44 PM »
If you drive 20% farther in your EV but now you're using power that's 70% renewable, carbon emissions from the drive are suddenly in the ballpark of 64% lower (1.2 x .3 = .36; 1-.36= .64)
No, because if you drive 20% more, you also need more roads. Roads means climate damage, by building, by sealed ground...

Yes, building techniques need to become less carbon-emitting and more carbon-capturing. Each element we use needs to improve. Getting some of them onto the improvement path ASAP is important.

I'm not arguing for cars per se. I'm arguing that, as Bill Gates suggests, we need to implement low- to no-carbon practices throughout our global economy regardless of which specific tech is used; that implementing improvements can spark further cost improvements due to increased volume; and that improvements from intersecting realms can reinforce.

If you can convince everyone to switch to bikes and walking and a few buses and barges and a lot of telework, I'll clap happily and join you. But making sure each major tech that people want to use is increasingly lower-carbon is probably the most reliable path forward, rather than just pinning our hopes on an uncertain and perhaps unlikely behavioral change that is currently not occurring at the needed pace.

But if I can't bitch about people not changing their behaviors, how am I supposed to feel superior?

/sarcasm

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2656 on: November 02, 2022, 03:58:26 PM »
If you drive 20% farther in your EV but now you're using power that's 70% renewable, carbon emissions from the drive are suddenly in the ballpark of 64% lower (1.2 x .3 = .36; 1-.36= .64)
No, because if you drive 20% more, you also need more roads. Roads means climate damage, by building, by sealed ground...

Yes, building techniques need to become less carbon-emitting and more carbon-capturing. Each element we use needs to improve. Getting some of them onto the improvement path ASAP is important.

I'm not arguing for cars per se. I'm arguing that, as Bill Gates suggests, we need to implement low- to no-carbon practices throughout our global economy regardless of which specific tech is used; that implementing improvements can spark further cost improvements due to increased volume; and that improvements from intersecting realms can reinforce.

If you can convince everyone to switch to bikes and walking and a few buses and barges and a lot of telework, I'll clap happily and join you. But making sure each major tech that people want to use is increasingly lower-carbon is probably the most reliable path forward, rather than just pinning our hopes on an uncertain and perhaps unlikely behavioral change that is currently not occurring at the needed pace.

But if I can't bitch about people not changing their behaviors, how am I supposed to feel superior?

/sarcasm

Just based on personal observation here . . . but feelings of superiority often seem to have very weak correlation with actual superiority.  :P

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2657 on: November 02, 2022, 05:05:42 PM »
The assumption that all moves toward progress net out and defeat themselves is false.

I'm not sure I'm convinced, even on the transportation front.

Between 1975 and 2010, we've basically doubled the efficiency of the American vehicle fleet from 14mpg to 28mpg (https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/fact-sheets/2011/04/20/driving-to-545-mpg-the-history-of-fuel-economy).  Yet, over that same period, transportation emissions increased by 50% (below).



I don't see any existing evidence that creating more efficient/less polluting vehicles has correlated with anything but an increase in emissions, and that's without even considering all the secondary emissions (i.e. road construction, housing construction, biomass destruction) that the driving has enabled. And ma nature doesn't give a crap about the per capita emissions rate.

I'm not trying wallow in misery here, and I don't think I'm deluded, I'm just not seeing any evidence that more efficient cars are a solution.  Do you have any?

The very best argument I can see for more efficient cars is that if we didn't increase efficiency then things would get worse quicker.  But that's very different than saying they're a solution.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2022, 05:27:39 PM by caleb »

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2658 on: November 02, 2022, 05:23:58 PM »
Is suburban sprawl really the problem, or lazy habits?

That really depends on how you define "the problem." Part of what makes any climate action particularly intractable in the United States is that car-centric lifestyles are part of a web of social problems that aren't really car issues at all, or at least weren't car issues in the first place.

American suburbia developed in the post-War period out of racism and white flight, full stop.  Car commuting was and is a means of avoiding integration and pooling resources in public institutions, such as integrated public schools.

Getting everyone on bikes might go some way toward developing a sense of shared destiny (when you're on a bike, social ills you pass feel a bit more real than when you drive past on the freeway), but the development patterns are the hard core of this web of problems.

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2659 on: November 02, 2022, 05:34:52 PM »
The assumption that all moves toward progress net out and defeat themselves is false.

I'm not sure I'm convinced, even on the transportation front.

Between 1975 and 2010, we've basically doubled the efficiency of the American vehicle fleet from 14mpg to 28mpg (https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/fact-sheets/2011/04/20/driving-to-545-mpg-the-history-of-fuel-economy).  Yet, over that same period, transportation emissions increased by 50%

Yes, and this is broadly the result of the US population increasing from just over 200MM to around 310MM during that time frame, and the number of cars and drivers doubling (in large part to an almost doubling of real median income or, more importantly, the lifting of tens of millions out of low-income and into a world where they could own cars).

Improving the efficiency didn’t cause an increase in emissions - it largely offset what would have been a much larger increase in emissions given the rise of more people driving more cars.  You’ve identified a correlation, not the cause.

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2660 on: November 02, 2022, 05:45:07 PM »
  You’ve identified a correlation, not the cause.

Which is why I call it a correlation in my post.  Here's the relevant portion:

Quote
I don't see any existing evidence that creating more efficient/less polluting vehicles has correlated with anything but an increase in emissions, and that's without even considering all the secondary emissions (i.e. road construction, housing construction, biomass destruction) that the driving has enabled. And ma nature doesn't give a crap about the per capita emissions rate.

Certainly some of that increased driving behavior was caused by more efficient, more reliable, more comfortable cars.  Lower the cost and you get more of anything.  But some of it was also due to population increase, as I note when I say the per capita rate doesn't matter for environmental purposes.

A path that promises a future that's less bad than the worst outcome doesn't seem like one we should be heading down.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2022, 05:48:24 PM by caleb »

Tyson

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2661 on: November 02, 2022, 05:47:35 PM »
  You’ve identified a correlation, not the cause.

Which is why I call it a correlation in my post. 

Certainly some of that increased driving behavior was caused by more efficient, more reliable, more comfortable cars.  Lower the cost and you get more of anything.  But some of it was also due to population increase, as I note when I say the per capita rate doesn't matter for environmental purposes.

A path that promises a future that's less bad than the worst outcome doesn't seem like one we should be heading down.

So what do you propose?

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2662 on: November 02, 2022, 05:58:44 PM »
  You’ve identified a correlation, not the cause.

Which is why I call it a correlation in my post. 

Certainly some of that increased driving behavior was caused by more efficient, more reliable, more comfortable cars.  Lower the cost and you get more of anything.  But some of it was also due to population increase, as I note when I say the per capita rate doesn't matter for environmental purposes.

A path that promises a future that's less bad than the worst outcome doesn't seem like one we should be heading down.

So what do you propose?

It seems that EVs have become the end-all be-all policy solution, along with some vague electrification agenda, of environmental policy.  And mostly I'm saying I just don't see it working out.

It strikes me as far more effective to institute a national greenbelt initiate around every major metro to stop sprawl, and to have a carbon tax.  Both could be done far cheaper than the existing EV incentives, with far greater impact, both in carbon abatement and general environmental preservation.

But we can't do that, because choices/freedom/space/I'm a pioneer/taxes are bad/social engineering is the devil/don't nudge me bro.


Tyson

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2663 on: November 02, 2022, 06:01:44 PM »
  You’ve identified a correlation, not the cause.

Which is why I call it a correlation in my post. 

Certainly some of that increased driving behavior was caused by more efficient, more reliable, more comfortable cars.  Lower the cost and you get more of anything.  But some of it was also due to population increase, as I note when I say the per capita rate doesn't matter for environmental purposes.

A path that promises a future that's less bad than the worst outcome doesn't seem like one we should be heading down.

So what do you propose?

It seems that EVs have become the end-all be-all policy solution, along with some vague electrification agenda, of environmental policy.  And mostly I'm saying I just don't see it working out.

It strikes me as far more effective to institute a national greenbelt initiate around every major metro to stop sprawl, and to have a carbon tax.  Both could be done far cheaper than the existing EV incentives, with far greater impact, both in carbon abatement and general environmental preservation.

But we can't do that, because choices/freedom/space/I'm a pioneer/taxes are bad/social engineering is the devil/don't nudge me bro.

Well, luckily we live in a democracy, so all you have to do is outvote them. 

nereo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2664 on: November 02, 2022, 06:03:08 PM »
  You’ve identified a correlation, not the cause.

Which is why I call it a correlation in my post.  Here's the relevant portion:

Quote
I don't see any existing evidence that creating more efficient/less polluting vehicles has correlated with anything but an increase in emissions, and that's without even considering all the secondary emissions (i.e. road construction, housing construction, biomass destruction) that the driving has enabled. And ma nature doesn't give a crap about the per capita emissions rate.

Certainly some of that increased driving behavior was caused by more efficient, more reliable, more comfortable cars.  Lower the cost and you get more of anything.  But some of it was also due to population increase, as I note when I say the per capita rate doesn't matter for environmental purposes.

A path that promises a future that's less bad than the worst outcome doesn't seem like one we should be heading down.

But here’s where I think your logic is failing you.  If we accept that the population increase would have happened regardless of improved fleet-wide fuel efficency, then the per capita rate absolutely does matter, because the alternative would have been drastically worse.

To echo Tyson - what do you propose? Most here (myself included) are stressing the importance of reducing fleet-vehicle miles overall.  However, in parallel with that goal we also need to continue to reduce the emissions from whatever fleet we have.

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2665 on: November 02, 2022, 06:08:30 PM »

But here’s where I think your logic is failing you.  If we accept that the population increase would have happened regardless of improved fleet-wide fuel efficency, then the per capita rate absolutely does matter, because the alternative would have been drastically worse.

To echo Tyson - what do you propose? Most here (myself included) are stressing the importance of reducing fleet-vehicle miles overall.  However, in parallel with that goal we also need to continue to reduce the emissions from whatever fleet we have.

I think we were typing at the same time.  I responded above to your question about a proposal.

I'm not anti-EV.  It's just that I think in order to be highly effective at driving down aggregate emissions at anything like the speed necessary, we need to prioritize less driving, less concrete, less building period.

And what I'm seeing is the opposite.  Lots of carrots around EVs, but zero sticks (or carrots) around reducing miles.

The US is like a guy spending all his money on booze and trying to fix his financial problems by shopping liquor sales instead of giving up the bottle.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2022, 06:15:22 PM by caleb »

Tyson

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2666 on: November 02, 2022, 06:15:50 PM »
I think you are wrong about things not happening at the speed necessary.  If the transition to renewables (solar, wind, batteries) was happening in a linear fashion, I would agree with you.  But I don't think it is.  It seems to be happening in an exponential fashion, following the classic S-curve of industry disruption. 

Here, Tony Seba explains it much more clearly than I can.  And if this is correct, then punitive actions aren't needed, mostly just get out of the way and let the disruption happen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vhMcKvHo8

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2667 on: November 02, 2022, 06:54:34 PM »
I think you are wrong about things not happening at the speed necessary.  If the transition to renewables (solar, wind, batteries) was happening in a linear fashion, I would agree with you.  But I don't think it is.  It seems to be happening in an exponential fashion, following the classic S-curve of industry disruption. 

Here, Tony Seba explains it much more clearly than I can.  And if this is correct, then punitive actions aren't needed, mostly just get out of the way and let the disruption happen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vhMcKvHo8

I listened to a some of the video, and it's entirely plausible that energy innovation functions as a punctuated equilibrium model.  Great.  We heard a lot of the same arguments about self-driving technology, but since it's speculative to the extent of making analogies to horses and buggies, I don't see anything productive in debating the point.  Let's even assume we snap our fingers and tomorrow we have unlimited clean energy for free. 

We've still got a massive fleet of ICE cars on the road that will be there for 30 years without intervention.  Even if electricity is free, people will continue to drive those cars to the end of their lifespan because the cost of switching remains high even with incentives.

But where I think we may be fundamentally talking past each other is that I see extensive driving as both a climate problem and a social problem (habitat destruction, economic and racial segregation, physical health, mental health, family cohesion).  Driving less addresses both the energy problem and the social problem.  EVs seem like a workaround that wants to address only the climate problem in a massively inefficient way in order to avoid touching the social problem.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2022, 07:10:35 PM by caleb »

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2668 on: November 02, 2022, 07:54:06 PM »
I think you are wrong about things not happening at the speed necessary.  If the transition to renewables (solar, wind, batteries) was happening in a linear fashion, I would agree with you.  But I don't think it is.  It seems to be happening in an exponential fashion, following the classic S-curve of industry disruption. 

Here, Tony Seba explains it much more clearly than I can.  And if this is correct, then punitive actions aren't needed, mostly just get out of the way and let the disruption happen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vhMcKvHo8

I listened to a some of the video, and it's entirely plausible that energy innovation functions as a punctuated equilibrium model.  Great.  We heard a lot of the same arguments about self-driving technology, but since it's speculative to the extent of making analogies to horses and buggies, I don't see anything productive in debating the point.  Let's even assume we snap our fingers and tomorrow we have unlimited clean energy for free. 

We've still got a massive fleet of ICE cars on the road that will be there for 30 years without intervention.  Even if electricity is free, people will continue to drive those cars to the end of their lifespan because the cost of switching remains high even with incentives.

But where I think we may be fundamentally talking past each other is that I see extensive driving as both a climate problem and a social problem (habitat destruction, economic and racial segregation, physical health, mental health, family cohesion).  Driving less addresses both the energy problem and the social problem.  EVs seem like a workaround that wants to address only the climate problem in a massively inefficient way in order to avoid touching the social problem.

Electric bikes and good safe pathways for them to follow could seem to get society where you think we should go.  The capital cost of infrastructure can be a lot less than cars, there are intangible health benefits, less electricity is needed for a bike than moving tons of steel and plastic - and with people more directly interacting with another there could be greater understanding of everyone in the community.  Of course, the present rules of capitalism have to be re-rigged from where we are now to achieve this.

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2669 on: November 02, 2022, 08:07:41 PM »
I think you are wrong about things not happening at the speed necessary.  If the transition to renewables (solar, wind, batteries) was happening in a linear fashion, I would agree with you.  But I don't think it is.  It seems to be happening in an exponential fashion, following the classic S-curve of industry disruption. 

Here, Tony Seba explains it much more clearly than I can.  And if this is correct, then punitive actions aren't needed, mostly just get out of the way and let the disruption happen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vhMcKvHo8

I listened to a some of the video, and it's entirely plausible that energy innovation functions as a punctuated equilibrium model.  Great.  We heard a lot of the same arguments about self-driving technology, but since it's speculative to the extent of making analogies to horses and buggies, I don't see anything productive in debating the point.  Let's even assume we snap our fingers and tomorrow we have unlimited clean energy for free. 

We've still got a massive fleet of ICE cars on the road that will be there for 30 years without intervention.  Even if electricity is free, people will continue to drive those cars to the end of their lifespan because the cost of switching remains high even with incentives.

But where I think we may be fundamentally talking past each other is that I see extensive driving as both a climate problem and a social problem (habitat destruction, economic and racial segregation, physical health, mental health, family cohesion).  Driving less addresses both the energy problem and the social problem.  EVs seem like a workaround that wants to address only the climate problem in a massively inefficient way in order to avoid touching the social problem.

Electric bikes and good safe pathways for them to follow could seem to get society where you think we should go.  The capital cost of infrastructure can be a lot less than cars, there are intangible health benefits, less electricity is needed for a bike than moving tons of steel and plastic - and with people more directly interacting with another there could be greater understanding of everyone in the community.  Of course, the present rules of capitalism have to be re-rigged from where we are now to achieve this.

Bike paths are not usually all that useful for utility cycling and commuting.  They tend to be out of the way, winding paths that are clogged with dog walkers and joggers.  What you need for utility cycling and commuting is a large network of interlinked surfaces that go places in a pretty direct manner.  Some would call these . . . roads.

BicycleB

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2670 on: November 02, 2022, 08:40:34 PM »
I think you are wrong about things not happening at the speed necessary.  If the transition to renewables (solar, wind, batteries) was happening in a linear fashion, I would agree with you.  But I don't think it is.  It seems to be happening in an exponential fashion, following the classic S-curve of industry disruption. 

Here, Tony Seba explains it much more clearly than I can.  And if this is correct, then punitive actions aren't needed, mostly just get out of the way and let the disruption happen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vhMcKvHo8

I listened to a some of the video, and it's entirely plausible that energy innovation functions as a punctuated equilibrium model.  Great.  We heard a lot of the same arguments about self-driving technology, but since it's speculative to the extent of making analogies to horses and buggies, I don't see anything productive in debating the point.  Let's even assume we snap our fingers and tomorrow we have unlimited clean energy for free. 

We've still got a massive fleet of ICE cars on the road that will be there for 30 years without intervention.  Even if electricity is free, people will continue to drive those cars to the end of their lifespan because the cost of switching remains high even with incentives.

But where I think we may be fundamentally talking past each other is that I see extensive driving as both a climate problem and a social problem (habitat destruction, economic and racial segregation, physical health, mental health, family cohesion).  Driving less addresses both the energy problem and the social problem.  EVs seem like a workaround that wants to address only the climate problem in a massively inefficient way in order to avoid touching the social problem.

Electric bikes and good safe pathways for them to follow could seem to get society where you think we should go.  The capital cost of infrastructure can be a lot less than cars, there are intangible health benefits, less electricity is needed for a bike than moving tons of steel and plastic - and with people more directly interacting with another there could be greater understanding of everyone in the community.  Of course, the present rules of capitalism have to be re-rigged from where we are now to achieve this.

Great path of analysis!!

Re-rigging capitalism? Tough, of course. And really, great as bikes and greenbelts are, valuable as they are for health and community, still they'd be only a partial solution to the climate issue even if we implemented them as fully as described. A wider solution set is needed - dozens of partial solutions implemented at once, so that enough movement can occur to produce significant progress despite political obstacles that @caleb described so well. Seems almost impossible, right?

Luckily, actual law in the United States already is providing for dozens of partial solutions to be implemented at once. @caleb wrote upthread that "it seems EVs are the end-all and be-all policy solution", but I think that's because media summarize complexities into one or two examples like EVs. The summary alone of the Inflation Reduction Act lists and specifies funding mechanisms for (meaning, provides an implementation path for!) dozens of specific programs and incentives that each should have some impact, and they're grouped into many more categories than EVs. It's true that EVs are a significant part, but manufacturing, energy production, fuel improvements, reducing emissions from cement and steel production, agriculture improvements, energy efficiency for homes, even wetlands preservation are important parts too.

Here's a summary:

INFLATION REDUCTION ACT OF 2022
 $369 billion for climate and clean energy
 Expected to reduce US carbon emissions about 40% by 2030
 725 page law

Provisions (from summary on senate.gov):

 Policies to reduce consumer energy costs
o $9 billion rebates for low income residents to retrofit homes & buy efficient appliances
o 10 years consumer tax credits for homes to become energy efficient, & use clean energy
(make heat pumps, rooftop solar, electric HVAC, electric water heaters affordable)
o $4,000 consumer tax credit for lower/middle income individuals to buy used clean
vehicles
o $7,500 tax credit to buy new clean vehicles
o $1 billion grant to make affordable housing more energy efficient

 American Energy Security and Domestic Manufacturing - $60 billion to onshore clean energy
manufacturing
o Production tax credits for US manufacture of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries,
critical materials (estimated $30 billion)
o $10 billion investment tax credit to build clean energy tech manufacturing facilities
(example: to make electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels)
o $500 million in Defense Production Act for heat pumps & critical materials processing
o $2 billion to retool existing auto factories to make clean vehicles
o Up to $20 billion loans to build new clean vehicle manufacturing facilities
o $2 billion for National Labs to accelerate breakthrough energy research

 Decarbonize the economy
o Tax credits for clean sources of electricity and energy storage and roughly $30 billion in
targeted grant and loan programs for states and electric utilities to accelerate the
transition to clean electricity.
o Tax credits and grants for clean fuels and clean commercial vehicles to reduce emissions
from all parts of the transportation sector.
o Grants and tax credits to reduce emissions from industrial manufacturing processes,
including almost $6 billion for a new Advanced Industrial Facilities Deployment Program
to reduce emissions from the largest industrial emitters like chemical, steel and cement
plants.
o Over $9 billion for Federal procurement of American-made clean technologies to create
a stable market for clean products, including $3 billion for the U.S. Postal Service to
purchase zero-emission vehicles.
o $27 billion clean energy technology accelerator to support deployment of technologies
to reduce emissions, especially in disadvantaged communities.
o A Methane Emissions Reduction Program to reduce the leaks from the production and
distribution of natural gas.

 Community Investment and Environmental Justice ($60 billion)
o The Environmental and Climate Justice Block Grants, funded at $3 billion, invest in
community led projects in disadvantaged communities and community capacity building
centers to address disproportionate environmental and public health harms related to
pollution and climate change.
o The Neighborhood Access and Equity Grants, funded at $3 billion, support
neighborhood equity, safety, and affordable transportation access with 4 competitive
grants to reconnect communities divided by existing infrastructure barriers, mitigate
negative impacts of transportation facilities or construction projects on disadvantaged
or underserved communities, and support equitable transportation planning and
community engagement activities.
o Grants to Reduce Air Pollution at Ports, funded at $3 billion, support the purchase and
installation of zero-emission equipment and technology at ports.
o $1 billion for clean heavy-duty vehicles, like school and transit buses and garbage trucks.
o Some of the previously mentioned programs that focus on disadvantaged and low-
income communities are also important to environmental justice, like the technology
accelerator and consumer home energy rebate programs. In addition, the many of the
clean energy tax credits include either a bonus or set-aside structure to drive
investments and economic development in disadvantaged communities.

 Farmers, Forestland Owners and Resilient Rural Communities
o More than $20 billion to support climate-smart agriculture practices.
o $5 billion in grants to support healthy, fire resilient forests, forest conservation and
urban tree planting.
o Tax credits and grants to support the domestic production of biofuels, and to build the
infrastructure needed for sustainable aviation fuel and other biofuels.
o $2.6 billion in grants to conserve and restore coastal habitats and protect communities
that depend on those habitats.

Does that seem like EVs are the end-all and be-all? Or a broad shift where capitalism improves the climate through varied approaches where some of them include EVs, but are not limited to EVs?
« Last Edit: November 02, 2022, 09:04:33 PM by BicycleB »

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2671 on: November 02, 2022, 09:04:03 PM »
@caleb wrote upthread that "it seems EVs are the end-all and be-all policy solution" [...]
Does that seem like EVs are the end-all and be-all?

You selectively edit my language twice in ways that change its meaning.  You leave out the "along with some vague electrification agenda," by which I mean the grab bag of industrial handouts you list.

Other than the procurement of electric vehicles and the home retrofits, just about everything in this summer's legislation could have, and I think should have, been achieved at a cost of zero dollars using regulation.  Three billion dollars in handouts to reduce air pollution at ports?  Why aren't we just regulating air pollution and enforcing the regulation?  And similarly for most items on the list.  It's not an agenda, it's a list of handouts to donors.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2672 on: November 02, 2022, 09:19:46 PM »
@caleb wrote upthread that "it seems EVs are the end-all and be-all policy solution" [...]
Does that seem like EVs are the end-all and be-all?

You selectively edit my language twice in ways that change its meaning.  You leave out the "along with some vague electrification agenda," by which I mean the grab bag of industrial handouts you list.

Other than the procurement of electric vehicles and the home retrofits, just about everything in this summer's legislation could have, and I think should have, been achieved at a cost of zero dollars using regulation.  Three billion dollars in handouts to reduce air pollution at ports?  Why aren't we just regulating air pollution and enforcing the regulation?  And similarly for most items on the list.  It's not an agenda, it's a list of handouts to donors.

Sorry, didn't mean to change its meaning. Meant to respectfully paste it but failed, tried to quote exactly.

I think you already mentioned the political obstacles (you summarized them about one brilliant sentence ending in "bro") so it seems to me you've already answered the question of why we're not accomplishing these goals through regulation. Since I agree regulation would be more efficient (as noted upthread, I advocate for carbon tax), we appear to me to agree on ideal policies.

I thought you were saying this thread and USA's approach in general is largely limited to EV incentives, and had concluded that this was insufficient as well as inefficient.

But you're aware of many policies that are more than EVs, yet you say they're vague - I guess I'm confused by your statements (not trying to disrespect or say you're wrong, just sincerely am confused.) Sorry.

I will be glad to support regulatory approaches that produce more effective regulation. Same for supporting safer bikes, more greenbelts, healthier communities (including use of the exisiting law's provisions toward those ends, which I suspect is possible.) In the meantime I'm glad that we have started taking national action regarding the climate and do think that the list given supports the idea we're doing more than just incentivizing EVs.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2022, 09:34:32 PM by BicycleB »

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2673 on: November 02, 2022, 09:42:18 PM »
Thanks for your very civil response, @Bicycle_B. You are correct that the money being spent goes beyond EVs.

I’m just flabbergasted that so many tax dollars are being spent for limited aims, and that the skater shot all-carrots-no-sticks approach reeks of cronyism.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2674 on: November 02, 2022, 10:37:52 PM »
Thanks for your very civil response, @Bicycle_B. You are correct that the money being spent goes beyond EVs.

I’m just flabbergasted that so many tax dollars are being spent for limited aims, and that the skater shot all-carrots-no-sticks approach reeks of cronyism.

But you already noted above (and several posters have agreed with you) that implementing and enforcing regulations is a no go in the current political climate.  Given that constraint, what would be a better approach than pushing hard on the incentives lever?

LennStar

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2675 on: November 03, 2022, 04:12:25 AM »
Thanks for your very civil response, @Bicycle_B. You are correct that the money being spent goes beyond EVs.

I’m just flabbergasted that so many tax dollars are being spent for limited aims, and that the skater shot all-carrots-no-sticks approach reeks of cronyism.

But you already noted above (and several posters have agreed with you) that implementing and enforcing regulations is a no go in the current political climate.  Given that constraint, what would be a better approach than pushing hard on the incentives lever?
Put some really awful stuff into the water, killing off 90% of the people.
In a way that's not even a joke. We are at the point where we either stop carbon emission now or millions will die, and if it goes on like now, billions will lose their home due to unliveable conditions.
If you don't like immigration, stop climate change now. Because once 10+ million a year will come, it's too late.

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2676 on: November 03, 2022, 09:54:40 AM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

roomtempmayo

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2677 on: November 03, 2022, 10:15:03 AM »
implementing and enforcing regulations is a no go in the current political climate.  Given that constraint

If regulations really are a no-go under any circumstances, then we're fcuked.  There isn't enough money in the world to buy off all the polluters. 

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2678 on: November 03, 2022, 10:55:15 AM »

Bike paths are not usually all that useful for utility cycling and commuting.  They tend to be out of the way, winding paths that are clogged with dog walkers and joggers.  What you need for utility cycling and commuting is a large network of interlinked surfaces that go places in a pretty direct manner.  Some would call these . . . roads.

I, too, have experienced a plethora of “pleasure-ride” bike paths which aren’t terribly conducive for commuting, but my takeaway is “it doesn’t have to be that way”. There are plenty of cities and towns that have built bike paths which are more useful (in the utilitarian sense of the word) and consequentially are used extensively by commuters. Properly designed and built these can offer a lot of advantages over (forced) shared roads with cars and cyclists.

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2679 on: November 03, 2022, 11:28:35 AM »

Bike paths are not usually all that useful for utility cycling and commuting.  They tend to be out of the way, winding paths that are clogged with dog walkers and joggers.  What you need for utility cycling and commuting is a large network of interlinked surfaces that go places in a pretty direct manner.  Some would call these . . . roads.

I, too, have experienced a plethora of “pleasure-ride” bike paths which aren’t terribly conducive for commuting, but my takeaway is “it doesn’t have to be that way”. There are plenty of cities and towns that have built bike paths which are more useful (in the utilitarian sense of the word) and consequentially are used extensively by commuters. Properly designed and built these can offer a lot of advantages over (forced) shared roads with cars and cyclists.

Absolutely!  These places exist.  I guess I'm thinking largely about my own neighbourhood - where there really isn't any place to put bike paths that would connect people to where they want to go.  I suspect that a great many places like mine that were initially designed and planned only for roads are going to face similar challenges.

StashingAway

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2680 on: November 03, 2022, 11:56:37 AM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

Easy. A carbon tax. That would naturally lend people to spending $ on things that create less emissions (and by proxy, consume less junk). Pricing is a direct and automatic signal to consumers on what to buy. If air travel and plastic goods from china suddenly become more expensive than a bike made locally or a community event, then even the least environmentally concerned folks will do it without a second thought.

Policy is easy to implement (low amount of resources needed), relatively non-partisan (I'm of the opinion that conservatives favor it more than liberals if presented correctly), supported by more economists worldwide than any other carbon reduction measure, and can be tied into a dividend to eliminate burden on low income citizens.

Tyson

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2681 on: November 03, 2022, 12:29:12 PM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

Easy. A carbon tax. That would naturally lend people to spending $ on things that create less emissions (and by proxy, consume less junk). Pricing is a direct and automatic signal to consumers on what to buy. If air travel and plastic goods from china suddenly become more expensive than a bike made locally or a community event, then even the least environmentally concerned folks will do it without a second thought.

Policy is easy to implement (low amount of resources needed), relatively non-partisan (I'm of the opinion that conservatives favor it more than liberals if presented correctly), supported by more economists worldwide than any other carbon reduction measure, and can be tied into a dividend to eliminate burden on low income citizens.

Let's do it.  How do we make it happen?

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2682 on: November 03, 2022, 12:48:57 PM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

Easy. A carbon tax. That would naturally lend people to spending $ on things that create less emissions (and by proxy, consume less junk). Pricing is a direct and automatic signal to consumers on what to buy. If air travel and plastic goods from china suddenly become more expensive than a bike made locally or a community event, then even the least environmentally concerned folks will do it without a second thought.

Policy is easy to implement (low amount of resources needed), relatively non-partisan (I'm of the opinion that conservatives favor it more than liberals if presented correctly), supported by more economists worldwide than any other carbon reduction measure, and can be tied into a dividend to eliminate burden on low income citizens.

I dunno about that.  Conservatives have fought extremely hard against Canada's revenue neutral carbon tax here in Ontario since it was implemented.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2683 on: November 03, 2022, 01:44:10 PM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

Easy. A carbon tax. That would naturally lend people to spending $ on things that create less emissions (and by proxy, consume less junk). Pricing is a direct and automatic signal to consumers on what to buy. If air travel and plastic goods from china suddenly become more expensive than a bike made locally or a community event, then even the least environmentally concerned folks will do it without a second thought.

Policy is easy to implement (low amount of resources needed), relatively non-partisan (I'm of the opinion that conservatives favor it more than liberals if presented correctly), supported by more economists worldwide than any other carbon reduction measure, and can be tied into a dividend to eliminate burden on low income citizens.

I dunno about that.  Conservatives have fought extremely hard against Canada's revenue neutral carbon tax here in Ontario since it was implemented.

I'm notreally a believer in the invisible hand shit, but I do like common sense.

Shouldn't electric bikes cost a lot less to procure?  It was pointed out that it would save people a buttload of money over driving an F-150.  Shouldn't it be kind of obvious to many municipalities that they wouldn't have to spend beau coup bucks on road repair and maintenance if people were to have a higher utilization of said electric bikes.  Shouldn't people who call themselves "conservative" be for this?  Less government spending is better than a whoopee cushion for them.  Isn't it like a "natural" carbon tax.  The extra money saved would be like a Keynesian pump prime fro the economy.  Right now people spend a lot of money on their transportation.

StashingAway

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2684 on: November 03, 2022, 01:53:51 PM »

I dunno about that.  Conservatives have fought extremely hard against Canada's revenue neutral carbon tax here in Ontario since it was implemented.

I should throw the caveat in there that conservatives have to generally accept anthropomorphic climate change in their reality for it to be an appealing measure (or at least more appealing than all of the carrot type proposals generally put forth by liberal parties). It simply prices a negative externality and lets the market do all the efficiency bits. One of the biggest issues is the swathe of conservatives who don't believe in climate change... then any measure that is proposed sounds ridiculous, but that's a separate problem.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2685 on: November 03, 2022, 02:16:30 PM »

I dunno about that.  Conservatives have fought extremely hard against Canada's revenue neutral carbon tax here in Ontario since it was implemented.

I should throw the caveat in there that conservatives have to generally accept anthropomorphic climate change in their reality for it to be an appealing measure (or at least more appealing than all of the carrot type proposals generally put forth by liberal parties). It simply prices a negative externality and lets the market do all the efficiency bits. One of the biggest issues is the swathe of conservatives who don't believe in climate change... then any measure that is proposed sounds ridiculous, but that's a separate problem.

"How come the carbon tax didn't prevent Hurricane Fiona?  Where are those tax dollars going?"
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N38sgq4XIvg&ab_channel=CTVNews

It's hard to argue with that 'logic'.

StashingAway

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2686 on: November 03, 2022, 03:08:54 PM »

I dunno about that.  Conservatives have fought extremely hard against Canada's revenue neutral carbon tax here in Ontario since it was implemented.

I should throw the caveat in there that conservatives have to generally accept anthropomorphic climate change in their reality for it to be an appealing measure (or at least more appealing than all of the carrot type proposals generally put forth by liberal parties). It simply prices a negative externality and lets the market do all the efficiency bits. One of the biggest issues is the swathe of conservatives who don't believe in climate change... then any measure that is proposed sounds ridiculous, but that's a separate problem.

"How come the carbon tax didn't prevent Hurricane Fiona?  Where are those tax dollars going?"
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N38sgq4XIvg&ab_channel=CTVNews

It's hard to argue with that 'logic'.

My goodness. My follow up question for her is whether or not she can explain the basic mechanics of climate change. I would bet a year's salary that she couldn't.

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2687 on: November 03, 2022, 03:19:19 PM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

Easy. A carbon tax. That would naturally lend people to spending $ on things that create less emissions (and by proxy, consume less junk). Pricing is a direct and automatic signal to consumers on what to buy. If air travel and plastic goods from china suddenly become more expensive than a bike made locally or a community event, then even the least environmentally concerned folks will do it without a second thought.

Policy is easy to implement (low amount of resources needed), relatively non-partisan (I'm of the opinion that conservatives favor it more than liberals if presented correctly), supported by more economists worldwide than any other carbon reduction measure, and can be tied into a dividend to eliminate burden on low income citizens.

I dunno about that.  Conservatives have fought extremely hard against Canada's revenue neutral carbon tax here in Ontario since it was implemented.

I'm notreally a believer in the invisible hand shit, but I do like common sense.

Shouldn't electric bikes cost a lot less to procure?  It was pointed out that it would save people a buttload of money over driving an F-150.  Shouldn't it be kind of obvious to many municipalities that they wouldn't have to spend beau coup bucks on road repair and maintenance if people were to have a higher utilization of said electric bikes.  Shouldn't people who call themselves "conservative" be for this?  Less government spending is better than a whoopee cushion for them.  Isn't it like a "natural" carbon tax.  The extra money saved would be like a Keynesian pump prime fro the economy.  Right now people spend a lot of money on their transportation.

The status quo keeps certain people wealthy. Those certain people, at least where I live, have disproportionate access to the local decision makers b/c that's who they socialize with anyhow. BBQs, golf, church, lunches, etc. 

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2688 on: November 03, 2022, 04:36:06 PM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

Easy. A carbon tax. That would naturally lend people to spending $ on things that create less emissions (and by proxy, consume less junk). Pricing is a direct and automatic signal to consumers on what to buy. If air travel and plastic goods from china suddenly become more expensive than a bike made locally or a community event, then even the least environmentally concerned folks will do it without a second thought.

Policy is easy to implement (low amount of resources needed), relatively non-partisan (I'm of the opinion that conservatives favor it more than liberals if presented correctly), supported by more economists worldwide than any other carbon reduction measure, and can be tied into a dividend to eliminate burden on low income citizens.

I dunno about that.  Conservatives have fought extremely hard against Canada's revenue neutral carbon tax here in Ontario since it was implemented.

I'm notreally a believer in the invisible hand shit, but I do like common sense.

Shouldn't electric bikes cost a lot less to procure?  It was pointed out that it would save people a buttload of money over driving an F-150.  Shouldn't it be kind of obvious to many municipalities that they wouldn't have to spend beau coup bucks on road repair and maintenance if people were to have a higher utilization of said electric bikes.  Shouldn't people who call themselves "conservative" be for this?  Less government spending is better than a whoopee cushion for them.  Isn't it like a "natural" carbon tax.  The extra money saved would be like a Keynesian pump prime fro the economy.  Right now people spend a lot of money on their transportation.

The status quo keeps certain people wealthy. Those certain people, at least where I live, have disproportionate access to the local decision makers b/c that's who they socialize with anyhow. BBQs, golf, church, lunches, etc.

Yes - the rules need to be re-rigged at times for the good of the people (& the Earth).

Shane

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2689 on: November 03, 2022, 08:25:11 PM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

A nice side benefit, for us, of not owning a car has been that we buy less stuff that we don't really need. Anything that won't fit in a shopping bag or one of my bike panniers has to be delivered, which sometimes can be 'free' and sometimes not. Either way, we have to be more intentional about buying, especially bigger, things than we were when we used to go shopping in a station wagon.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2690 on: November 04, 2022, 07:37:26 AM »
Largely covered by others, but I wanted to get my two cents in....
Sure seems like there are a lot of flat, otherwise empty roof tops available for solar that wouldn't require expansive ground mount systems that make the land less useful. And they'd probably be much less visible too for anybody with those complaints.
Rooftop solar on large commercial buildings (warehouses, etc) can make a lot of sense if the roof is already strong enough for the loads. Not as badly priced as residential, but still noticeably more expensive than ground mount.

Quote
Northern Indiana is also not exactly ideal for solar production, so it seems a bit unusual that they'd choose this specific location for their project. Winter days are short, with little solar intensity. You could probably get more production from a smaller array in a better location. There's a ton of wind generation in the area (which also has/had opposition), but that leaves most of the ground beneath it functional as farm land.
Winter days are short, but winter is typically when Midwest wind is the strongest. During the summer there is often wind at night, but not so much during the day. Solar would be a nice complement for production.

Other items such as improving grid interconnections will help even more - and will be a net cost savings over the "do nothing" approach if done correctly. Example: https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/seams.html

Solar + functional farm land is very doable and apparently can be even more profitable in some areas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrivoltaics


Bike paths are not usually all that useful for utility cycling and commuting.  They tend to be out of the way, winding paths that are clogged with dog walkers and joggers.  What you need for utility cycling and commuting is a large network of interlinked surfaces that go places in a pretty direct manner.  Some would call these . . . roads.

I, too, have experienced a plethora of “pleasure-ride” bike paths which aren’t terribly conducive for commuting, but my takeaway is “it doesn’t have to be that way”. There are plenty of cities and towns that have built bike paths which are more useful (in the utilitarian sense of the word) and consequentially are used extensively by commuters. Properly designed and built these can offer a lot of advantages over (forced) shared roads with cars and cyclists.
Yep, the more functional ones are often along a roadway (separated, please!) and are referred to as a Shared Use Path (SUP)

Where does the space come from? At least in my town, the car lanes are WAY too wide anyway. NACTO guidelines are 10-11 feet, and I'm typically seeing 12-14 feet, with the occasional excursion to 19 feet.  Take a typical 6-7 lane stroad, trim 2 feet off each lane and you suddenly have 12 feet of width available - plus the 4-5 feet of width already there for the sidewalk. Plenty for a 12 foot SUP and a 4 foot buffer strip. As a bonus, speed limit compliance of motor vehicles improves significantly.

Shouldn't electric bikes cost a lot less to procure?
In earlier drafts the Inflation Reduction Act included an electric bike credit. Unfortunately it was one of the items sacrificed to get it passed (Thanks, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema! Not.)

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2691 on: November 04, 2022, 07:48:29 AM »

Bike paths are not usually all that useful for utility cycling and commuting.  They tend to be out of the way, winding paths that are clogged with dog walkers and joggers.  What you need for utility cycling and commuting is a large network of interlinked surfaces that go places in a pretty direct manner.  Some would call these . . . roads.

I, too, have experienced a plethora of “pleasure-ride” bike paths which aren’t terribly conducive for commuting, but my takeaway is “it doesn’t have to be that way”. There are plenty of cities and towns that have built bike paths which are more useful (in the utilitarian sense of the word) and consequentially are used extensively by commuters. Properly designed and built these can offer a lot of advantages over (forced) shared roads with cars and cyclists.
Yep, the more functional ones are often along a roadway (separated, please!) and are referred to as a Shared Use Path (SUP)

Where does the space come from? At least in my town, the car lanes are WAY too wide anyway. NACTO guidelines are 10-11 feet, and I'm typically seeing 12-14 feet, with the occasional excursion to 19 feet.  Take a typical 6-7 lane stroad, trim 2 feet off each lane and you suddenly have 12 feet of width available - plus the 4-5 feet of width already there for the sidewalk. Plenty for a 12 foot SUP and a 4 foot buffer strip. As a bonus, speed limit compliance of motor vehicles improves significantly.

Narrowing of vehicle lanes is a good first step, but we should really be removing existing lanes.  Car travel has been made far too easy and convenient - that's why so many people choose it.  By making it less convenient alternate methods of transportation become a lot more appealing.

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2692 on: November 04, 2022, 08:15:27 AM »
Largely covered by others, but I wanted to get my two cents in....
Sure seems like there are a lot of flat, otherwise empty roof tops available for solar that wouldn't require expansive ground mount systems that make the land less useful. And they'd probably be much less visible too for anybody with those complaints.
Rooftop solar on large commercial buildings (warehouses, etc) can make a lot of sense if the roof is already strong enough for the loads. Not as badly priced as residential, but still noticeably more expensive than ground mount.

Quote
Northern Indiana is also not exactly ideal for solar production, so it seems a bit unusual that they'd choose this specific location for their project. Winter days are short, with little solar intensity. You could probably get more production from a smaller array in a better location. There's a ton of wind generation in the area (which also has/had opposition), but that leaves most of the ground beneath it functional as farm land.
Winter days are short, but winter is typically when Midwest wind is the strongest. During the summer there is often wind at night, but not so much during the day. Solar would be a nice complement for production.

Other items such as improving grid interconnections will help even more - and will be a net cost savings over the "do nothing" approach if done correctly. Example: https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/seams.html

Solar + functional farm land is very doable and apparently can be even more profitable in some areas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrivoltaics


Bike paths are not usually all that useful for utility cycling and commuting.  They tend to be out of the way, winding paths that are clogged with dog walkers and joggers.  What you need for utility cycling and commuting is a large network of interlinked surfaces that go places in a pretty direct manner.  Some would call these . . . roads.

I, too, have experienced a plethora of “pleasure-ride” bike paths which aren’t terribly conducive for commuting, but my takeaway is “it doesn’t have to be that way”. There are plenty of cities and towns that have built bike paths which are more useful (in the utilitarian sense of the word) and consequentially are used extensively by commuters. Properly designed and built these can offer a lot of advantages over (forced) shared roads with cars and cyclists.
Yep, the more functional ones are often along a roadway (separated, please!) and are referred to as a Shared Use Path (SUP)

Where does the space come from? At least in my town, the car lanes are WAY too wide anyway. NACTO guidelines are 10-11 feet, and I'm typically seeing 12-14 feet, with the occasional excursion to 19 feet.  Take a typical 6-7 lane stroad, trim 2 feet off each lane and you suddenly have 12 feet of width available - plus the 4-5 feet of width already there for the sidewalk. Plenty for a 12 foot SUP and a 4 foot buffer strip. As a bonus, speed limit compliance of motor vehicles improves significantly.

Shouldn't electric bikes cost a lot less to procure?
In earlier drafts the Inflation Reduction Act included an electric bike credit. Unfortunately it was one of the items sacrificed to get it passed (Thanks, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema! Not.)

lol posts like this remind me of how hugely regional things are.  On most of the side streets in my area, two-way traffic is difficult unless someone pulls over to the side to allow someone through (otherwise we'd be skimming mirrors on the street parked cars).

StashingAway

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2693 on: November 04, 2022, 08:43:41 AM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

Easy. A carbon tax. That would naturally lend people to spending $ on things that create less emissions (and by proxy, consume less junk). Pricing is a direct and automatic signal to consumers on what to buy. If air travel and plastic goods from china suddenly become more expensive than a bike made locally or a community event, then even the least environmentally concerned folks will do it without a second thought.

Policy is easy to implement (low amount of resources needed), relatively non-partisan (I'm of the opinion that conservatives favor it more than liberals if presented correctly), supported by more economists worldwide than any other carbon reduction measure, and can be tied into a dividend to eliminate burden on low income citizens.

Let's do it.  How do we make it happen?

Join Citizen's Climate Lobby. They have made huge lobbying progress to introduce carbon tax bills at the federal level due entirely to volunteer efforts. It is a bi-partisan lobby group with a very focused agenda on effective communication to politicians and the public. It's the best way for everyday citizens to contribute, even those with little time/resources to contribute (like me with my two kids and two working parents)

https://citizensclimatelobby.org/


BDWW

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2694 on: November 04, 2022, 09:49:34 AM »

lol posts like this remind me of how hugely regional things are.  On most of the side streets in my area, two-way traffic is difficult unless someone pulls over to the side to allow someone through (otherwise we'd be skimming mirrors on the street parked cars).

It's like that here too.   But only in the older sections of town built in the early 1900s.  Everything built in the last 50+ years is massive, huge setbacks, etc. Walking on a main street, you can easily tell where the boundaries were when things changed.   Downtown, downtown, downtown ... strip mall.

Tyson

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2695 on: November 04, 2022, 11:09:03 AM »
People saved more money when they stayed home due to COVID restrictions. At least where I live, this was followed by s vast spending spree that may be continuing today. People buying housing upgrades (decoration or moving outright despite higher prices), newer cars purchased at higher prices, a sea of internet purchases, etc - all at a cost to the environment.

If useful bike paths suddenly appear across the nation and people start using them, saving their cars for other uses or selling their cars outright - - - anyone care to predict what people will do with the spare cash they suddenly have?

The right answer for DW and me is to pay down the mortgage, get closer to retirement, more free time for us, not shopping more.

How can the human species be encouraged to quit buying things, driving so much, traveling so much, and simply stay home more (or bike/walk somewhere)?

Easy. A carbon tax. That would naturally lend people to spending $ on things that create less emissions (and by proxy, consume less junk). Pricing is a direct and automatic signal to consumers on what to buy. If air travel and plastic goods from china suddenly become more expensive than a bike made locally or a community event, then even the least environmentally concerned folks will do it without a second thought.

Policy is easy to implement (low amount of resources needed), relatively non-partisan (I'm of the opinion that conservatives favor it more than liberals if presented correctly), supported by more economists worldwide than any other carbon reduction measure, and can be tied into a dividend to eliminate burden on low income citizens.

Let's do it.  How do we make it happen?

Join Citizen's Climate Lobby. They have made huge lobbying progress to introduce carbon tax bills at the federal level due entirely to volunteer efforts. It is a bi-partisan lobby group with a very focused agenda on effective communication to politicians and the public. It's the best way for everyday citizens to contribute, even those with little time/resources to contribute (like me with my two kids and two working parents)

https://citizensclimatelobby.org/

Excellent, thank you.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2696 on: December 27, 2022, 04:36:07 PM »
Some early reports are saying that EVs were 5% of US vehicle sales in 2022. This has been a bit of an inflection point in some other nations, so it could be an important step for normalizing EVs.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/27/business/electric-vehicle-tipping-point?utm_source=business_ribbon

"In 2019, there were 11 EV models selling more than 1,000 units, according to Kelley Blue Book. This year, there were 26."

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2697 on: December 27, 2022, 09:09:06 PM »
I saw my first Rivian last week. What did it look like?  A truck.

I spoke with the owner.   Did he buy it for the planet? Did he buy it for economics?  He bought it because it accelerates fast.

NorCal

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2698 on: December 30, 2022, 07:06:58 AM »
I saw my first Rivian last week. What did it look like?  A truck.

I spoke with the owner.   Did he buy it for the planet? Did he buy it for economics?  He bought it because it accelerates fast.

Those are amazing trucks. MotorTrend did a piece where they drove them across the country almost entirely off-road.  It’s worth the read+watch if you’re into such things. They came across numerous instances where it was simply the better vehicle for the job on most metrics.

This is one of those things that makes me optimistic about the future of EV’s. It’s not about being more efficient or saving the planet. It’s about having a better vehicle.

A Rivian is one of those things I realize is financially idiotic purchase, but it doesn’t make me stop wanting one.


2sk22

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #2699 on: December 30, 2022, 09:45:46 AM »
I had posted a version of this on my journal but it just occurred to me that this topic is a better place to post.

Last year when I gave my old car (a Prius) to my daughter I had the opportunity to get a new car and I really wanted an EV.
Now, there are several factors that make EVs attractive for me:
- We own an independent house so installing a 220V charger would be no problem
- We have two cars and generally don't do much long distance travel in our cars. But if we had to drive long distance, we could take the non-EV
- We have solar panels that produce a healthy surplus of power that’s currently fed back into the grid, although to be fair, net metering is very generous for us here in New Jersey
- Our financial situation allows us to buy pretty much any car we want on the market, up to even a Mercedes S class

But it was still too early in the cycle for electric cars in mid 2021. I had already started to read bad things about Teslas and was not impressed by them in general. But the other manufacturers were still ramping up production: neither the Ioniq 5 nor the ID.4 were available at that time.

After some search, I decided to get a regular (non-hybrid) Honda CR-V instead and that car has turned out to be just about perfect for my needs. My thought at that time was that I would replace the CR-V with an electric car in a few years. Note that this is not typical for me - I am normally very Mustachian when it comes to cars - I generally keep them for at least ten year at the very least.

But it’s now a year and half since I bought the Honda and I don’t (yet) see a compelling need to replace it with an EV. Thanks to Musk’s antics, I will never buy a Tesla. And for the other manufacturers, availability still appears to be poor. As far as I can tell, it’s not easy to even get a test drive in any of the popular EVs right now. I don’t think that availability is going to improve until next perhaps the middle or end of 2023.

Meanwhile, on a purely financial basis, there is not much motivation for me to buy an EV anyway. My regular gas powered CR-V is giving me an excellent 31 MPG on the average and I drive less than a thousand miles a month. Given the higher purchase price of EVs I would have to drive a lot more to really benefit from lower running costs.

As it happens, I recently watched several video reviews of the Chevy Bolt EUV and I think it is finally a reasonably priced EV (about $30k) that could work for me. Should be worth considering next year assuming that they become readily available. I am now getting convinced that I just don’t need or want a big battery pack. A 200 mile range would be fine for my needs. Hopefully similar good options will start to appear soon. Will revisit the EV question in another six months.