I think you are wrong about things not happening at the speed necessary. If the transition to renewables (solar, wind, batteries) was happening in a linear fashion, I would agree with you. But I don't think it is. It seems to be happening in an exponential fashion, following the classic S-curve of industry disruption.
Here, Tony Seba explains it much more clearly than I can. And if this is correct, then punitive actions aren't needed, mostly just get out of the way and let the disruption happen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vhMcKvHo8
I listened to a some of the video, and it's entirely plausible that energy innovation functions as a punctuated equilibrium model. Great. We heard a lot of the same arguments about self-driving technology, but since it's speculative to the extent of making analogies to horses and buggies, I don't see anything productive in debating the point. Let's even assume we snap our fingers and tomorrow we have unlimited clean energy for free.
We've still got a massive fleet of ICE cars on the road that will be there for 30 years without intervention. Even if electricity is free, people will continue to drive those cars to the end of their lifespan because the cost of switching remains high even with incentives.
But where I think we may be fundamentally talking past each other is that I see extensive driving as both a climate problem and a social problem (habitat destruction, economic and racial segregation, physical health, mental health, family cohesion). Driving less addresses both the energy problem and the social problem. EVs seem like a workaround that wants to address only the climate problem in a massively inefficient way in order to avoid touching the social problem.
Electric bikes and good safe pathways for them to follow could seem to get society where you think we should go. The capital cost of infrastructure can be a lot less than cars, there are intangible health benefits, less electricity is needed for a bike than moving tons of steel and plastic - and with people more directly interacting with another there could be greater understanding of everyone in the community. Of course, the present rules of capitalism have to be re-rigged from where we are now to achieve this.
Great path of analysis!!
Re-rigging capitalism? Tough, of course. And really, great as bikes and greenbelts are, valuable as they are for health and community, still they'd be only a partial solution to the climate issue even if we implemented them as fully as described. A wider solution set is needed - dozens of partial solutions implemented at once, so that enough movement can occur to produce significant progress despite political obstacles that
@caleb described so well. Seems almost impossible, right?
Luckily, actual law in the United States already is providing for dozens of partial solutions to be implemented at once.
@caleb wrote upthread that "it seems EVs are the end-all and be-all policy solution", but I think that's because media summarize complexities into one or two examples like EVs. The summary alone of the Inflation Reduction Act lists and specifies funding mechanisms for (meaning, provides an implementation path for!) dozens of specific programs and incentives that each should have some impact, and they're grouped into many more categories than EVs. It's true that EVs are a significant part, but manufacturing, energy production, fuel improvements, reducing emissions from cement and steel production, agriculture improvements, energy efficiency for homes, even wetlands preservation are important parts too.
Here's a summary:
INFLATION REDUCTION ACT OF 2022
$369 billion for climate and clean energy
Expected to reduce US carbon emissions about 40% by 2030
725 page law
Provisions (from summary on senate.gov):
Policies to reduce consumer energy costs
o $9 billion rebates for low income residents to retrofit homes & buy efficient appliances
o 10 years consumer tax credits for homes to become energy efficient, & use clean energy
(make heat pumps, rooftop solar, electric HVAC, electric water heaters affordable)
o $4,000 consumer tax credit for lower/middle income individuals to buy used clean
vehicles
o $7,500 tax credit to buy new clean vehicles
o $1 billion grant to make affordable housing more energy efficient
American Energy Security and Domestic Manufacturing - $60 billion to onshore clean energy
manufacturing
o Production tax credits for US manufacture of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries,
critical materials (estimated $30 billion)
o $10 billion investment tax credit to build clean energy tech manufacturing facilities
(example: to make electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels)
o $500 million in Defense Production Act for heat pumps & critical materials processing
o $2 billion to retool existing auto factories to make clean vehicles
o Up to $20 billion loans to build new clean vehicle manufacturing facilities
o $2 billion for National Labs to accelerate breakthrough energy research
Decarbonize the economy
o Tax credits for clean sources of electricity and energy storage and roughly $30 billion in
targeted grant and loan programs for states and electric utilities to accelerate the
transition to clean electricity.
o Tax credits and grants for clean fuels and clean commercial vehicles to reduce emissions
from all parts of the transportation sector.
o Grants and tax credits to reduce emissions from industrial manufacturing processes,
including almost $6 billion for a new Advanced Industrial Facilities Deployment Program
to reduce emissions from the largest industrial emitters like chemical, steel and cement
plants.
o Over $9 billion for Federal procurement of American-made clean technologies to create
a stable market for clean products, including $3 billion for the U.S. Postal Service to
purchase zero-emission vehicles.
o $27 billion clean energy technology accelerator to support deployment of technologies
to reduce emissions, especially in disadvantaged communities.
o A Methane Emissions Reduction Program to reduce the leaks from the production and
distribution of natural gas.
Community Investment and Environmental Justice ($60 billion)
o The Environmental and Climate Justice Block Grants, funded at $3 billion, invest in
community led projects in disadvantaged communities and community capacity building
centers to address disproportionate environmental and public health harms related to
pollution and climate change.
o The Neighborhood Access and Equity Grants, funded at $3 billion, support
neighborhood equity, safety, and affordable transportation access with 4 competitive
grants to reconnect communities divided by existing infrastructure barriers, mitigate
negative impacts of transportation facilities or construction projects on disadvantaged
or underserved communities, and support equitable transportation planning and
community engagement activities.
o Grants to Reduce Air Pollution at Ports, funded at $3 billion, support the purchase and
installation of zero-emission equipment and technology at ports.
o $1 billion for clean heavy-duty vehicles, like school and transit buses and garbage trucks.
o Some of the previously mentioned programs that focus on disadvantaged and low-
income communities are also important to environmental justice, like the technology
accelerator and consumer home energy rebate programs. In addition, the many of the
clean energy tax credits include either a bonus or set-aside structure to drive
investments and economic development in disadvantaged communities.
Farmers, Forestland Owners and Resilient Rural Communities
o More than $20 billion to support climate-smart agriculture practices.
o $5 billion in grants to support healthy, fire resilient forests, forest conservation and
urban tree planting.
o Tax credits and grants to support the domestic production of biofuels, and to build the
infrastructure needed for sustainable aviation fuel and other biofuels.
o $2.6 billion in grants to conserve and restore coastal habitats and protect communities
that depend on those habitats.
Does that seem like EVs are the end-all and be-all? Or a broad shift where capitalism improves the climate through varied approaches where some of them include EVs, but are not limited to EVs?